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Actual pew research by Pew Research – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,773
    edited April 22
    HYUFD said:

    I never take my phone to church, for starters using it in the services is rather rude, a bit like doing so in a play or a cinema or concert. So am not sure this tells us much

    I take my mobile everywhere but switch it off or put it in silent mode where appropriate, such as at a church service.

    I like to think that deep in Moscow/GCHQ/Langley someone is tracking my every move.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,789
    edited April 22
    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    A comment on the header....you look at my cell phone data you would imagine I dont move more than a 5 foot radius. My mobile stays on my desk, I leave the house it doesn't travel with me. I don't imagine I am the only one that isn't concerned enough to take a mobile everywhere they go

    I take my mobile to Church, but switch it off. How would this show in the data?
    A switched off cellphone is only switched off for certain definitions of off
    That's as maybe, but how would it affect this data?

    Note: I really am not bothered if GCHQ/Mi5/CIA/FSB know that I am in church or my kitchen.

  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,601

    There's a serious social/political issue here, actually.

    There is a definite phenomenon of American Evangelicals who don't go to church. It can be pretty alarming.

    In fact, people become even more entrenched in their political views when they stop attending services. Though churches have a reputation in some circles as promoting hyper-politicization, they can be depolarizing institutions. Being part of a religious community often forces people to get along with others—including others with different political views—and it may channel people’s efforts into charitable work or forms of community outreach that have little to do with politics. Leaving the community removes those moderating forces, opening the door to extremism.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/09/christianity-religion-america-church-polarization/675215/

    As well as the loss of socialisation, there's the loss of contact with the teachings of that bloke who was nailed to a tree for saying how great it would be to be nice to people for a change.

    You know, feeding the hungry, giving drinks to the thirsty, welcoming the stranger, that sort of thing.

    As I agree with this more or less entirely it seems churlish to suggest that it is not the case that Jesus was crucified for saying we should be kind and nice to each other. I think it is more or less certain that he was seen, rightly or wrongly, as a threat to the civil order. The Roman justice system was not great, but it didn't execute people for teaching kindness.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,979
    MattW said:

    On topic for PB.

    Observation from an online Green Councillor friend in Oxford, to whom I have just been explaining the joys of Ashfield local politics.

    Oh my this sounds like an extremely eventful constituency!

    An additional interesting thing for us is that Conservatives, you know, the National party of govt still, haven’t stood this time in several wards (and didn’t stand against me).

    https://twitter.com/EmilyKerr36/status/1782089214147928248

    Are Conservative Councillor Candidate numbers holding up everywhere, the world wonders?

    The sort of question usually only AndyJS could answer.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,884
    DougSeal said:

    TimS said:

    We have a Poll requiring explanation from SKS fans


    Labour lead at 16pts
    Westminster voting intention

    LAB: 43% (-2)
    CON: 27% (+2)
    REF: 12% (+1)
    LDEM: 9% (-)
    GRN: 5% (-)

    via
    @DeltapollUK
    , 19 Apr

    Labour lead in today's R&W poll is 23 (Lab 43, Con 20).

    SKS enemies please explain.
    We’re starting to get a few big gaps between pollsters on bloc percentages rather than just allocation of votes within blocs.

    This one (Deltapoll) has a combined Refcon score of 39%. That’s on the way to being respectable and the highest I’ve seen for a long time. But the R&W score is 34%, one of the lowest in what’s been a fairly stable picture.

    LLG in those two are 57% and 61%.
    There is no G in LLG

    G voters wouldnt touch SKS with a barge pole or should that be poll!

    And unlike in the past Greens are standing in every seat in GE2024
    How the f**k would you know? Based on your posts after Rochdale you're a Workers Party of Britain supporter. You're no Green.
    I am a Green but the Rochdale Green was disowned so GG was my pick after that
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,846
    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    A comment on the header....you look at my cell phone data you would imagine I dont move more than a 5 foot radius. My mobile stays on my desk, I leave the house it doesn't travel with me. I don't imagine I am the only one that isn't concerned enough to take a mobile everywhere they go

    I take my mobile to Church, but switch it off. How would this show in the data?
    A switched off cellphone is only switched off for certain definitions of off
    That's as maybe, but how would it affect this data?

    Note: I really am not bothered if GCHQ/Mi5/CIA/FSB know that I am in church or my kitchen.

    I never claimed it would, I merely mentioned that like me some people dont have the habit of going everywhere with a mobile. If you don't know how many just go out without one then the data is meaningless
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,979

    There's a serious social/political issue here, actually.

    There is a definite phenomenon of American Evangelicals who don't go to church. It can be pretty alarming.

    In fact, people become even more entrenched in their political views when they stop attending services. Though churches have a reputation in some circles as promoting hyper-politicization, they can be depolarizing institutions. Being part of a religious community often forces people to get along with others—including others with different political views—and it may channel people’s efforts into charitable work or forms of community outreach that have little to do with politics. Leaving the community removes those moderating forces, opening the door to extremism.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/09/christianity-religion-america-church-polarization/675215/

    As well as the loss of socialisation, there's the loss of contact with the teachings of that bloke who was nailed to a tree for saying how great it would be to be nice to people for a change.

    You know, feeding the hungry, giving drinks to the thirsty, welcoming the stranger, that sort of thing.

    As I was stunned to learn, all that talk is just liberal crap anyway.

    "Multiple pastors tell me, essentially, the same story about quoting the Sermon on the Mount, parenthetically, in their preaching—'turn the other cheek'—[and] to have someone come up after to say, 'Where did you get those liberal talking points?'" Moore said.

    "When the pastor would say, 'I'm literally quoting Jesus Christ' ... The response would be, 'Yes, but that doesn't work anymore. That's weak," he added. "When we get to the point where the teachings of Jesus himself are seen as subversive to us, then we're in a crisis."

    https://www.newsweek.com/evangelicals-rejecting-jesus-teachings-liberal-talking-points-pastor-1818706
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,696
    Slight overreaction from the BBC. The increase seems to be 0.1% .

    Homeowner pain as major banks hike mortgage rates
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68874847
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,789
    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    A comment on the header....you look at my cell phone data you would imagine I dont move more than a 5 foot radius. My mobile stays on my desk, I leave the house it doesn't travel with me. I don't imagine I am the only one that isn't concerned enough to take a mobile everywhere they go

    I take my mobile to Church, but switch it off. How would this show in the data?
    A switched off cellphone is only switched off for certain definitions of off
    That's as maybe, but how would it affect this data?

    Note: I really am not bothered if GCHQ/Mi5/CIA/FSB know that I am in church or my kitchen.

    I never claimed it would, I merely mentioned that like me some people dont have the habit of going everywhere with a mobile. If you don't know how many just go out without one then the data is meaningless
    The final tweet in the header is a bar chart on who has their phone with them at Church.
  • Options
    BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,278
    Would there be a different level of outrage if the copper had said "you're too obviously Muslim to cross the road"?
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,950
    edited April 22
    @TSE

    "we have regular polling failures on both sides of the pond"

    This is my nagging fear for POTUS24... :(
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,846
    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    A comment on the header....you look at my cell phone data you would imagine I dont move more than a 5 foot radius. My mobile stays on my desk, I leave the house it doesn't travel with me. I don't imagine I am the only one that isn't concerned enough to take a mobile everywhere they go

    I take my mobile to Church, but switch it off. How would this show in the data?
    A switched off cellphone is only switched off for certain definitions of off
    That's as maybe, but how would it affect this data?

    Note: I really am not bothered if GCHQ/Mi5/CIA/FSB know that I am in church or my kitchen.

    I never claimed it would, I merely mentioned that like me some people dont have the habit of going everywhere with a mobile. If you don't know how many just go out without one then the data is meaningless
    The final tweet in the header is a bar chart on who has their phone with them at Church.
    And the always is less than 80%
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,512

    I am shocked!

    Post Office scandal: Investigation that cleared CEO ‘ignored key witnesses’

    Nick Read was cleared of misconduct after whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director


    An investigation into the Post Office chief executive did not interview the complainant’s key witnesses and kept her in the dark, MPs have been told.

    Last week Nick Read, who has run the company since 2019, was exonerated of a “myriad charge sheet” set out in a whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director.

    The existence of the investigation into Read was made public earlier in February by the organisation’s former chairman, Henry Staunton, who was sacked by Kemi Badenoch, the business secretary, in January.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/post-office-scandal-investigation-witnesses-pn5h5vmx0

    Do NOT be shocked WHEN next lawyers popping up in court(s) representing Donald Trump, are sporting Brit accents.

    OR when Kemi Badenoch appears as warm-up act for Donald Trump at some MAGA-maniac jamboree.
    I actually think that Donald Trump might do a bit better with a UK firm of solicitors. He does seem to select some remarkably incompetent lawyers. British ones would be amoral and start with the handicap of their accents and accidentally calling the judge 'M'Ludd', but they couldn't be much worse.

    Reminds me of a Kavanagh QC episode where he went to Florida.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2UGHwqOssQU
    John Thaw, greatest television actor of his day. But the video is blocked "in your country". Rumpole went to the great state of Florida as well. Filming subsidies?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,773

    Would there be a different level of outrage if the copper had said "you're too obviously Muslim to cross the road"?

    A different set of the outraged probably.

    Anyhow, here's my prediction: the GE will not be decided on issues relating to Israel or Palestine.

    You're all welcome.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,899
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Labour 43% (-1)
    Conservative 20% (-2)
    Reform 14% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+3)
    Green 6% (–)
    SNP 3% (–)
    Other 1% (–)

    Redfield / Wilton
    Changes +/- 14 April


    LAB: 43% (-2)
    CON: 27% (+2)
    RFM: 12% (+1)
    LDM: 9% (=)
    GRN: 5% (=)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @deltapolluk, 19-22 Apr.
    Changes w/ 12-15 Apr.

    Labour at 1997 levels, the LDs barely half 1997 levels though.

    Reform at 4 times what UKIP and the Referendum party got then, so if Sunak can squeeze them by polling day he should at least make it closer than Major managed in 1997. Even if Starmer matches Blair's score
    Of course Labour went into polling day in 1997 averaging about 47-48% in the polls and only got 44% by comparison. So maybe if they go into the next election on 43% they might get around 40% or even slightly less.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,773
    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    A comment on the header....you look at my cell phone data you would imagine I dont move more than a 5 foot radius. My mobile stays on my desk, I leave the house it doesn't travel with me. I don't imagine I am the only one that isn't concerned enough to take a mobile everywhere they go

    I take my mobile to Church, but switch it off. How would this show in the data?
    A switched off cellphone is only switched off for certain definitions of off
    That's as maybe, but how would it affect this data?

    Note: I really am not bothered if GCHQ/Mi5/CIA/FSB know that I am in church or my kitchen.

    I never claimed it would, I merely mentioned that like me some people dont have the habit of going everywhere with a mobile. If you don't know how many just go out without one then the data is meaningless
    I am going to stick my neck out and suggest that the number of mobile phone owners who never take their phone out is way below 5%. I think the bar for 'grocery store' in the last chart supports that view.
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,846

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    A comment on the header....you look at my cell phone data you would imagine I dont move more than a 5 foot radius. My mobile stays on my desk, I leave the house it doesn't travel with me. I don't imagine I am the only one that isn't concerned enough to take a mobile everywhere they go

    I take my mobile to Church, but switch it off. How would this show in the data?
    A switched off cellphone is only switched off for certain definitions of off
    That's as maybe, but how would it affect this data?

    Note: I really am not bothered if GCHQ/Mi5/CIA/FSB know that I am in church or my kitchen.

    I never claimed it would, I merely mentioned that like me some people dont have the habit of going everywhere with a mobile. If you don't know how many just go out without one then the data is meaningless
    I am going to stick my neck out and suggest that the number of mobile phone owners who never take their phone out is way below 5%. I think the bar for 'grocery store' in the last chart supports that view.
    Again there is a difference between never and always. I know plenty of people that don't think I am going round the shop and be back in 10 minutes that don't bother....they go out for a whole day then they will
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,670

    Would there be a different level of outrage if the copper had said "you're too obviously Muslim to cross the road"?

    Same scenario. If Muslim deliberately tries to cause trouble by entering a demonstration where he would be at risk the police should stop him. Same comments by the police officer as well eg Wait or I'll help you cross elsewhere or you are obviously Muslim and crossing here is likely to cause a breach of the peace, etc, If he persists in trying to cross at the point where a disturbance would ensue then the policeman might have to arrest him. No different.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,979
    viewcode said:

    @TSE

    "we have regular polling failures on both sides of the pond"

    This is my nagging fear for POTUS24... :(

    Mine is that too many swing states are indeed very close, emboldening those who would be willing to use legislative roles to subvert the outcomes.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,841
    kjh said:

    malcolmg said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Far-right Zionist agitator, Gideon Falter is a Vice-Chair at the JNF (illegal settlement funders)

    Why are mainstream media not mentioning this?

    Because it’s utterly irrelevant to the fact he was asked to move on for looking “too Jewish”. Unless you think the plod in question researched his background before being the sort of antisemitic knob that your post impliedly defends on the occasion in question. Hope that helps your understanding in this.
    Does suggest he didn’t haven’t completely clean hands.
    Do behave. Much as I disagree with his political position, he was asked to move on because of his appearance, not his views.
    Sorry, but AiUI he was trying to cross a road where Palestinian sympathisers were marching. Wearing a kippah.
    However the policeman wasn’t the sharpest knife in the box.
    Sad day when you cannot cross the road because some nutjobs don't like the look of you.
    Malc, it’s the equivalent of a Celtic supporter, in full gear, trying to cross a queue of Rangers supporters.
    Or, to be fair, the opposite.
    One OUGHT to be able to do it.
    BUT!
    Yes having seen the video the policeman was being as nice and patient as possible and the guy concerned was just looking to create trouble. There shouldn't be an apology. He was doing his job under difficult circumstances. It is why the police keep opposite protests apart. Wouldn't be great if the BNP could protest alongside the Anti Fascists for instance. Yep, not going to happen. This wasn't some guy wanting to cross the road. He was deliberately trying to create an issue and the policeman was keeping the peace. The only thing I give him credit for is his bravery.
    Three separate things.

    Looking openly Jewish - massive apology.
    Threatening arrest - mild apology.
    Not letting him walk into the march - no apology.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,563

    malcolmg said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ...

    I'd say Sunak needs 10 planes full of boat people to fly to Rwanda in quick succession, to break the boats. I could be very wrong - it will become apparent very quickly if I am.

    If he manages this, it will be a major feat, and he's right to try and get his name all over it before it happens. Also a very clear dividing line with Labour, whose shitty non-policy on this involves chucking even more money at the French, and quite possibly signing us up to agreements to take more asylum seekers from the EU.

    The current backlog is 80,777. An A320 can usually take 160 people. You would need 505 planes full of boat people to clear the backlog.

    How many would you need to sufficient break the incentive for people to come to the UK on small boats? I don't know. I expect many over a long period.
    I don't think one needs to clear the backlog, just send all the newcomers to Rwanda.
    I'm not entirely clear, but my understanding is that most of the backlog are in legal limbo. The Govt has passed a law meaning they can't be processed here. So, don't we have to send them to Rwanda or forever pay for their upkeep? (Or, obviously, vote out this terrible government.)
    I'm sure that's correct, but it's far more important to get the current arrivals there, in terms of the disincentive factor. Once it has been firmly established that a trip across the channel is a one-way ticket to Rwanda, new arrivals will stop, and the backlog can be dealt with.
    And that's the tell that this is not a serious policy.

    If you want to establish that, the UK government needs a scheme with massive surge capacity- initially several thousand a week for several weeks and the ability to still say "there's plenty of room for more".

    They haven't done that, and everyone knows it.

    The kindest interpretation is that a talking point got taken too seriously, and everyone is now stuck with it because it's just too embarassing to say out loud that the scheme is batshit. (Did James Cleverley ever actually deny saying that?) Think Emperor's New Clothes.

    Otherwise, we're left with an expensive performance... of what?

    In terms of tonight, I think the nuclear option for the Lords is to say "You can have your bill, provided you accept our two amendments. One on Afghan interpreters and the other on independent monitoring of Rwanda's ongoing safety."

    Thus far, Rishi has stood against those amendments. If the Lords do go that way, what should Rishi do? And what should the Lords do?
    There's also a fundamental difference between the UK scheme, and the way every other country in the world does it.

    Look at Australia. If you arrive there by boat, they send you off to an off-shore processing facility. If your application is successful, you come to Australia. If it is unsuccessful, you are shipped back to your country of origin.

    The UK's Rwanda scheme is completely different. People are being sent to Rwanda to claim asylum there. The Rwandan government recieves money from the UK, but it is the job of the Rwandan government to process refugees, to house them if their applications are successful, and to deport them if they are not.

    This rather limits the appetite of the Rwandans for more than a small number of refugees. (Let us not forget that Kgali has about a tenth the population of London.) And it increases the likelihood of successful appeals against deportation to Rwanda.

    I don't understand why the UK is not implementing an Australian-type process. Sure, it would cost more to implement. But those people being processed would remain the responsibility of the UK, which would mean that it was significantly easier to implement, that it could scale properly, and that the likelihood of successful judicial appeals would be close to zero.
    I think this is because under the Australia system Britain would still have to take lots of refugees, because there are genuinely large numbers of people who qualify as refugees under the definition currently being applied.

    The fantasy being sold with the Rwanda plan is zero refugees, or at least zero + token numbers taken with great fanfare so Britain can feel good about itself.

    Given that the plan started with Johnson, the fantasy plan was always going to be more attractive than a realistic one.
    Can anyone explain why in France about 20-30% claims are valid whilst we have 70-80% valid and don't chuck anyone out. It si all the same punters.
    France gets a lot more applicants than Britain. It's possible that it's not all the same punters, and that genuine refugees are more likely to make the greater effort to reach Britain. But I'm speculating, I don't know.
    Something that is always forgotten is that immigrants and refugees are part of the same continuum. That is, people are often a chunk of both. This from experience from meeting immigrants and refugees, working with them and marrying an immigrant. Oh, and having a father who was an immigrant.

    Very often its a case of “life is shit at home. We are from the wrong minority. And we want so chance of economic progress.”

    So you get people who are 60% economic migrant and 40% refugee.

  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,670

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    A comment on the header....you look at my cell phone data you would imagine I dont move more than a 5 foot radius. My mobile stays on my desk, I leave the house it doesn't travel with me. I don't imagine I am the only one that isn't concerned enough to take a mobile everywhere they go

    I take my mobile to Church, but switch it off. How would this show in the data?
    A switched off cellphone is only switched off for certain definitions of off
    That's as maybe, but how would it affect this data?

    Note: I really am not bothered if GCHQ/Mi5/CIA/FSB know that I am in church or my kitchen.

    I never claimed it would, I merely mentioned that like me some people dont have the habit of going everywhere with a mobile. If you don't know how many just go out without one then the data is meaningless
    I am going to stick my neck out and suggest that the number of mobile phone owners who never take their phone out is way below 5%. I think the bar for 'grocery store' in the last chart supports that view.
    I think 99.9% of people have their mobiles glued to them permanently. Mine is. That 0.1% is the time I forget and then I'm traumatised.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,637

    I am shocked!

    Post Office scandal: Investigation that cleared CEO ‘ignored key witnesses’

    Nick Read was cleared of misconduct after whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director


    An investigation into the Post Office chief executive did not interview the complainant’s key witnesses and kept her in the dark, MPs have been told.

    Last week Nick Read, who has run the company since 2019, was exonerated of a “myriad charge sheet” set out in a whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director.

    The existence of the investigation into Read was made public earlier in February by the organisation’s former chairman, Henry Staunton, who was sacked by Kemi Badenoch, the business secretary, in January.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/post-office-scandal-investigation-witnesses-pn5h5vmx0

    Do NOT be shocked WHEN next lawyers popping up in court(s) representing Donald Trump, are sporting Brit accents.

    OR when Kemi Badenoch appears as warm-up act for Donald Trump at some MAGA-maniac jamboree.
    I actually think that Donald Trump might do a bit better with a UK firm of solicitors. He does seem to select some remarkably incompetent lawyers. British ones would be amoral and start with the handicap of their accents and accidentally calling the judge 'M'Ludd', but they couldn't be much worse.

    Reminds me of a Kavanagh QC episode where he went to Florida.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2UGHwqOssQU
    John Thaw, greatest television actor of his day. But the video is blocked "in your country". Rumpole went to the great state of Florida as well. Filming subsidies?
    Most of the Brits I met in Britain who'd been to America had been to Florida. Especially true of working-class folks.

    So setting an American episode of a Brit TV series in Florida makes sense from Brit-audience perspective.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,773
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    A comment on the header....you look at my cell phone data you would imagine I dont move more than a 5 foot radius. My mobile stays on my desk, I leave the house it doesn't travel with me. I don't imagine I am the only one that isn't concerned enough to take a mobile everywhere they go

    I take my mobile to Church, but switch it off. How would this show in the data?
    A switched off cellphone is only switched off for certain definitions of off
    That's as maybe, but how would it affect this data?

    Note: I really am not bothered if GCHQ/Mi5/CIA/FSB know that I am in church or my kitchen.

    I never claimed it would, I merely mentioned that like me some people dont have the habit of going everywhere with a mobile. If you don't know how many just go out without one then the data is meaningless
    I am going to stick my neck out and suggest that the number of mobile phone owners who never take their phone out is way below 5%. I think the bar for 'grocery store' in the last chart supports that view.
    Again there is a difference between never and always. I know plenty of people that don't think I am going round the shop and be back in 10 minutes that don't bother....they go out for a whole day then they will
    Sure, but even if you only include 'always', 'almost always' and 'usually', you still get to >95% by my reading of the bar-chart.

    Anyway, you said "If you don't know how many just go out without one then the data is meaningless" - but we do have an indication of that, so the data is not meaningless.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,889
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Labour 43% (-1)
    Conservative 20% (-2)
    Reform 14% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+3)
    Green 6% (–)
    SNP 3% (–)
    Other 1% (–)

    Redfield / Wilton
    Changes +/- 14 April


    LAB: 43% (-2)
    CON: 27% (+2)
    RFM: 12% (+1)
    LDM: 9% (=)
    GRN: 5% (=)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @deltapolluk, 19-22 Apr.
    Changes w/ 12-15 Apr.

    Labour at 1997 levels, the LDs barely half 1997 levels though.

    Reform at 4 times what UKIP and the Referendum party got then, so if Sunak can squeeze them by polling day he should at least make it closer than Major managed in 1997. Even if Starmer matches Blair's score
    Of course Labour went into polling day in 1997 averaging about 47-48% in the polls and only got 44% by comparison. So maybe if they go into the next election on 43% they might get around 40% or even slightly less.
    Wishful thinking as usual - it's probable the standard and methodology of polling is better now than it was. As for election campaigns, remember what happened in 2010 when the Conservatives started 8% ahead and ended 8% ahead. We also have only 13% Don't Knows.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,470
    WillG said:

    How hard is it to pass a simple law saying that mental health issues should not prevent the deportation of criminals?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13335685/Child-rapist-jailed-attacking-teenage-girl-allowed-stay-UK-arguing-deported-Eritrea-harm-mental-health.html

    This stuff is beyond the most outrageous parody now. We have to keep a child rapist because the fact he’s a child rapist might make him upset when it is pointed out in his home country, where he belongs, that he is a child rapist

    And when this child rapist rapes a British child what do we say to the parents? “Oh, his hurt Eritrean feelings matter more than your raped British child, sorry”

    This is the fabric of madness. We are brewing something terrible
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,889
    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    On topic for PB.

    Observation from an online Green Councillor friend in Oxford, to whom I have just been explaining the joys of Ashfield local politics.

    Oh my this sounds like an extremely eventful constituency!

    An additional interesting thing for us is that Conservatives, you know, the National party of govt still, haven’t stood this time in several wards (and didn’t stand against me).

    https://twitter.com/EmilyKerr36/status/1782089214147928248

    Are Conservative Councillor Candidate numbers holding up everywhere, the world wonders?

    The sort of question usually only AndyJS could answer.
    There are 2,655 seats being fought - the Conservatives have 95% candidate coverage, Labour 91%, the Lib Dems 68% and the Greens 62%. Reform are only standing 12% of possible candidates.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,800
    kjh said:

    malcolmg said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Far-right Zionist agitator, Gideon Falter is a Vice-Chair at the JNF (illegal settlement funders)

    Why are mainstream media not mentioning this?

    Because it’s utterly irrelevant to the fact he was asked to move on for looking “too Jewish”. Unless you think the plod in question researched his background before being the sort of antisemitic knob that your post impliedly defends on the occasion in question. Hope that helps your understanding in this.
    Does suggest he didn’t haven’t completely clean hands.
    Do behave. Much as I disagree with his political position, he was asked to move on because of his appearance, not his views.
    Sorry, but AiUI he was trying to cross a road where Palestinian sympathisers were marching. Wearing a kippah.
    However the policeman wasn’t the sharpest knife in the box.
    Sad day when you cannot cross the road because some nutjobs don't like the look of you.
    Malc, it’s the equivalent of a Celtic supporter, in full gear, trying to cross a queue of Rangers supporters.
    Or, to be fair, the opposite.
    One OUGHT to be able to do it.
    BUT!
    Yes having seen the video the policeman was being as nice and patient as possible and the guy concerned was just looking to create trouble. There shouldn't be an apology. He was doing his job under difficult circumstances. It is why the police keep opposite protests apart. Wouldn't be great if the BNP could protest alongside the Anti Fascists for instance. Yep, not going to happen. This wasn't some guy wanting to cross the road. He was deliberately trying to create an issue and the policeman was keeping the peace. The only thing I give him credit for is his bravery.
    Our police, the people, are really great. We all sing the praises of the HNS, and they're good too, but the British police have been going for far longer and deserve a bit of a shout too.

    The parts of policing that have gone wrong are the higher end bits. Central London policing in the 70s was a joke, and that malign influence has continued to this day - the Met really hasn't shone as it should. If you can't fix it with the honest endeavour of a Cambridge mathematician then I'd be surprised.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,987
    I’ve never been to church other than weddings, funerals or christenings but, as someone who is sad that Christianity is no longer going to be the dominant faith in England when my kids are grown up, I feel I should start.

    I won’t though, the same way I like the independent shops in our High St and still order stuff cheaper online. When they’re gone I’ll miss them & complaint that people never used them, as my houses value plummets
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,773
    kjh said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    A comment on the header....you look at my cell phone data you would imagine I dont move more than a 5 foot radius. My mobile stays on my desk, I leave the house it doesn't travel with me. I don't imagine I am the only one that isn't concerned enough to take a mobile everywhere they go

    I take my mobile to Church, but switch it off. How would this show in the data?
    A switched off cellphone is only switched off for certain definitions of off
    That's as maybe, but how would it affect this data?

    Note: I really am not bothered if GCHQ/Mi5/CIA/FSB know that I am in church or my kitchen.

    I never claimed it would, I merely mentioned that like me some people dont have the habit of going everywhere with a mobile. If you don't know how many just go out without one then the data is meaningless
    I am going to stick my neck out and suggest that the number of mobile phone owners who never take their phone out is way below 5%. I think the bar for 'grocery store' in the last chart supports that view.
    I think 99.9% of people have their mobiles glued to them permanently. Mine is. That 0.1% is the time I forget and then I'm traumatised.
    Mrs P. doesn't take hers to the gym - nowhere to put it in her leggings apparently (I think that's fair tbh).

    I fret a bit in case her car breaks down. Which is irrational really as cars broke down a lot more often when we didn't have mobile phones and I never fretted then.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,979

    I am shocked!

    Post Office scandal: Investigation that cleared CEO ‘ignored key witnesses’

    Nick Read was cleared of misconduct after whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director


    An investigation into the Post Office chief executive did not interview the complainant’s key witnesses and kept her in the dark, MPs have been told.

    Last week Nick Read, who has run the company since 2019, was exonerated of a “myriad charge sheet” set out in a whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director.

    The existence of the investigation into Read was made public earlier in February by the organisation’s former chairman, Henry Staunton, who was sacked by Kemi Badenoch, the business secretary, in January.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/post-office-scandal-investigation-witnesses-pn5h5vmx0

    Do NOT be shocked WHEN next lawyers popping up in court(s) representing Donald Trump, are sporting Brit accents.

    OR when Kemi Badenoch appears as warm-up act for Donald Trump at some MAGA-maniac jamboree.
    I actually think that Donald Trump might do a bit better with a UK firm of solicitors. He does seem to select some remarkably incompetent lawyers. British ones would be amoral and start with the handicap of their accents and accidentally calling the judge 'M'Ludd', but they couldn't be much worse.

    Reminds me of a Kavanagh QC episode where he went to Florida.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2UGHwqOssQU
    John Thaw, greatest television actor of his day. But the video is blocked "in your country". Rumpole went to the great state of Florida as well. Filming subsidies?
    Most of the Brits I met in Britain who'd been to America had been to Florida. Especially true of working-class folks.

    So setting an American episode of a Brit TV series in Florida makes sense from Brit-audience perspective.
    Tax breaks to film (and set) TV shows and films in other US States have been good at broadening our horizons of your great nation . Turns out places like Montana and Wyoming exist, who knew? (Though often it seems New Mexico stands in for quite a few other places).
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,517

    I am shocked!

    Post Office scandal: Investigation that cleared CEO ‘ignored key witnesses’

    Nick Read was cleared of misconduct after whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director


    An investigation into the Post Office chief executive did not interview the complainant’s key witnesses and kept her in the dark, MPs have been told.

    Last week Nick Read, who has run the company since 2019, was exonerated of a “myriad charge sheet” set out in a whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director.

    The existence of the investigation into Read was made public earlier in February by the organisation’s former chairman, Henry Staunton, who was sacked by Kemi Badenoch, the business secretary, in January.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/post-office-scandal-investigation-witnesses-pn5h5vmx0

    Do NOT be shocked WHEN next lawyers popping up in court(s) representing Donald Trump, are sporting Brit accents.

    OR when Kemi Badenoch appears as warm-up act for Donald Trump at some MAGA-maniac jamboree.
    I actually think that Donald Trump might do a bit better with a UK firm of solicitors. He does seem to select some remarkably incompetent lawyers. British ones would be amoral and start with the handicap of their accents and accidentally calling the judge 'M'Ludd', but they couldn't be much worse.

    Reminds me of a Kavanagh QC episode where he went to Florida.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2UGHwqOssQU
    John Thaw, greatest television actor of his day. But the video is blocked "in your country". Rumpole went to the great state of Florida as well. Filming subsidies?
    Most of the Brits I met in Britain who'd been to America had been to Florida. Especially true of working-class folks.

    So setting an American episode of a Brit TV series in Florida makes sense from Brit-audience perspective.
    My memory of the episode was that it played deeply into stereotypes about the bigoted and sweaty deep South. But apparently Florida was as deep South as they got.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,252
    DougSeal said:

    Far-right Zionist agitator, Gideon Falter is a Vice-Chair at the JNF (illegal settlement funders)

    Why are mainstream media not mentioning this?

    Because it’s utterly irrelevant to the fact he was asked to move on for looking “too Jewish”. Unless you think the plod in question researched his background before being the sort of antisemitic knob that your post impliedly defends on the occasion in question. Hope that helps your understanding in this.
    Did the cop say ‘too’ Jewish?
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,637
    kle4 said:

    I am shocked!

    Post Office scandal: Investigation that cleared CEO ‘ignored key witnesses’

    Nick Read was cleared of misconduct after whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director


    An investigation into the Post Office chief executive did not interview the complainant’s key witnesses and kept her in the dark, MPs have been told.

    Last week Nick Read, who has run the company since 2019, was exonerated of a “myriad charge sheet” set out in a whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director.

    The existence of the investigation into Read was made public earlier in February by the organisation’s former chairman, Henry Staunton, who was sacked by Kemi Badenoch, the business secretary, in January.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/post-office-scandal-investigation-witnesses-pn5h5vmx0

    Do NOT be shocked WHEN next lawyers popping up in court(s) representing Donald Trump, are sporting Brit accents.

    OR when Kemi Badenoch appears as warm-up act for Donald Trump at some MAGA-maniac jamboree.
    I actually think that Donald Trump might do a bit better with a UK firm of solicitors. He does seem to select some remarkably incompetent lawyers. British ones would be amoral and start with the handicap of their accents and accidentally calling the judge 'M'Ludd', but they couldn't be much worse.

    Reminds me of a Kavanagh QC episode where he went to Florida.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2UGHwqOssQU
    John Thaw, greatest television actor of his day. But the video is blocked "in your country". Rumpole went to the great state of Florida as well. Filming subsidies?
    Most of the Brits I met in Britain who'd been to America had been to Florida. Especially true of working-class folks.

    So setting an American episode of a Brit TV series in Florida makes sense from Brit-audience perspective.
    Tax breaks to film (and set) TV shows and films in other US States have been good at broadening our horizons of your great nation . Turns out places like Montana and Wyoming exist, who knew? (Though often it seems New Mexico stands in for quite a few other places).
    New Mexico offers attractive subsidies to movie-makers, esp. those making movies with help from New Mexicans.

    Big reason WHY Alex Baldwin now finds his ginormous asssssss in a VERY big crack.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,546
    edited April 22
    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Labour 43% (-1)
    Conservative 20% (-2)
    Reform 14% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+3)
    Green 6% (–)
    SNP 3% (–)
    Other 1% (–)

    Redfield / Wilton
    Changes +/- 14 April


    LAB: 43% (-2)
    CON: 27% (+2)
    RFM: 12% (+1)
    LDM: 9% (=)
    GRN: 5% (=)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @deltapolluk, 19-22 Apr.
    Changes w/ 12-15 Apr.

    Labour at 1997 levels, the LDs barely half 1997 levels though.

    Reform at 4 times what UKIP and the Referendum party got then, so if Sunak can squeeze them by polling day he should at least make it closer than Major managed in 1997. Even if Starmer matches Blair's score
    Of course Labour went into polling day in 1997 averaging about 47-48% in the polls and only got 44% by comparison. So maybe if they go into the next election on 43% they might get around 40% or even slightly less.
    Wishful thinking as usual - it's probable the standard and methodology of polling is better now than it was. As for election campaigns, remember what happened in 2010 when the Conservatives started 8% ahead and ended 8% ahead. We also have only 13% Don't Knows.
    '97 was the one where ICM was doing Shy Tory Adjustments and others weren't. Comparing ICM then with everyone now, Starmer is doing a bit worse than Blair and Sunak is doing a lot worse than Major.

    And by E-6 months, Major was getting a small but definite swingback.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,979
    stodge said:

    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    On topic for PB.

    Observation from an online Green Councillor friend in Oxford, to whom I have just been explaining the joys of Ashfield local politics.

    Oh my this sounds like an extremely eventful constituency!

    An additional interesting thing for us is that Conservatives, you know, the National party of govt still, haven’t stood this time in several wards (and didn’t stand against me).

    https://twitter.com/EmilyKerr36/status/1782089214147928248

    Are Conservative Councillor Candidate numbers holding up everywhere, the world wonders?

    The sort of question usually only AndyJS could answer.
    There are 2,655 seats being fought - the Conservatives have 95% candidate coverage, Labour 91%, the Lib Dems 68% and the Greens 62%. Reform are only standing 12% of possible candidates.
    Great stuff.

    From my limited local shire country knowledge round here the Conservatives usually make an effort to stand in all seats, the LDs almost all, Labour around 3/4, and the Greens around 2/3. Assuming Tories may stuggle to fill a slate in less shirey areas, 95% seems like a decent amount of coverage still.

    The poor Greens have tended to not get much reward for their good effort organising candidates, last year excepted.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,670
    edited April 22

    kjh said:

    malcolmg said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Far-right Zionist agitator, Gideon Falter is a Vice-Chair at the JNF (illegal settlement funders)

    Why are mainstream media not mentioning this?

    Because it’s utterly irrelevant to the fact he was asked to move on for looking “too Jewish”. Unless you think the plod in question researched his background before being the sort of antisemitic knob that your post impliedly defends on the occasion in question. Hope that helps your understanding in this.
    Does suggest he didn’t haven’t completely clean hands.
    Do behave. Much as I disagree with his political position, he was asked to move on because of his appearance, not his views.
    Sorry, but AiUI he was trying to cross a road where Palestinian sympathisers were marching. Wearing a kippah.
    However the policeman wasn’t the sharpest knife in the box.
    Sad day when you cannot cross the road because some nutjobs don't like the look of you.
    Malc, it’s the equivalent of a Celtic supporter, in full gear, trying to cross a queue of Rangers supporters.
    Or, to be fair, the opposite.
    One OUGHT to be able to do it.
    BUT!
    Yes having seen the video the policeman was being as nice and patient as possible and the guy concerned was just looking to create trouble. There shouldn't be an apology. He was doing his job under difficult circumstances. It is why the police keep opposite protests apart. Wouldn't be great if the BNP could protest alongside the Anti Fascists for instance. Yep, not going to happen. This wasn't some guy wanting to cross the road. He was deliberately trying to create an issue and the policeman was keeping the peace. The only thing I give him credit for is his bravery.
    Three separate things.

    Looking openly Jewish - massive apology.
    Threatening arrest - mild apology.
    Not letting him walk into the march - no apology.
    Disagree. The openly Jewish comment had to be said. It sounds off, but the policeman is making the point that the man was deliberately trying to advertise the fact that he was Jewish so consequently may cause a breach of the peace. A bit like the Celtic fan entering the Rangers end. Not a problem if he is wearing blue but the green hoops is not on. I think it's only fair to point that out. Otherwise the policeman would have allowed him to cross. He had to explain why he couldn't.

    He only threatened to arrest him after he continued to argue and kept trying to enter the march. What was he supposed to do?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,773

    I am shocked!

    Post Office scandal: Investigation that cleared CEO ‘ignored key witnesses’

    Nick Read was cleared of misconduct after whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director


    An investigation into the Post Office chief executive did not interview the complainant’s key witnesses and kept her in the dark, MPs have been told.

    Last week Nick Read, who has run the company since 2019, was exonerated of a “myriad charge sheet” set out in a whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director.

    The existence of the investigation into Read was made public earlier in February by the organisation’s former chairman, Henry Staunton, who was sacked by Kemi Badenoch, the business secretary, in January.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/post-office-scandal-investigation-witnesses-pn5h5vmx0

    Do NOT be shocked WHEN next lawyers popping up in court(s) representing Donald Trump, are sporting Brit accents.

    OR when Kemi Badenoch appears as warm-up act for Donald Trump at some MAGA-maniac jamboree.
    I actually think that Donald Trump might do a bit better with a UK firm of solicitors. He does seem to select some remarkably incompetent lawyers. British ones would be amoral and start with the handicap of their accents and accidentally calling the judge 'M'Ludd', but they couldn't be much worse.

    Reminds me of a Kavanagh QC episode where he went to Florida.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2UGHwqOssQU
    John Thaw, greatest television actor of his day. But the video is blocked "in your country". Rumpole went to the great state of Florida as well. Filming subsidies?
    Most of the Brits I met in Britain who'd been to America had been to Florida. Especially true of working-class folks.

    So setting an American episode of a Brit TV series in Florida makes sense from Brit-audience perspective.
    I would like to proudly state that I have been to America but never been to Florida.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,745
    stodge said:

    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    On topic for PB.

    Observation from an online Green Councillor friend in Oxford, to whom I have just been explaining the joys of Ashfield local politics.

    Oh my this sounds like an extremely eventful constituency!

    An additional interesting thing for us is that Conservatives, you know, the National party of govt still, haven’t stood this time in several wards (and didn’t stand against me).

    https://twitter.com/EmilyKerr36/status/1782089214147928248

    Are Conservative Councillor Candidate numbers holding up everywhere, the world wonders?

    The sort of question usually only AndyJS could answer.
    There are 2,655 seats being fought - the Conservatives have 95% candidate coverage, Labour 91%, the Lib Dems 68% and the Greens 62%. Reform are only standing 12% of possible candidates.
    Hence why the locals will be the start of the long decline of Reform as we head to the election. And much, though not all, of that will go back to Con.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,252
    Mr Falter’s stunt faltering.


  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,979

    DougSeal said:

    Far-right Zionist agitator, Gideon Falter is a Vice-Chair at the JNF (illegal settlement funders)

    Why are mainstream media not mentioning this?

    Because it’s utterly irrelevant to the fact he was asked to move on for looking “too Jewish”. Unless you think the plod in question researched his background before being the sort of antisemitic knob that your post impliedly defends on the occasion in question. Hope that helps your understanding in this.
    Did the cop say ‘too’ Jewish?
    Being 'openly' jewish was apparently part of the problem, so if he was less openly so presumably it would have been less of one, and thus he was too jewish it seems. But those exact words? No.
  • Options
    legatuslegatus Posts: 87
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Labour 43% (-1)
    Conservative 20% (-2)
    Reform 14% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+3)
    Green 6% (–)
    SNP 3% (–)
    Other 1% (–)

    Redfield / Wilton
    Changes +/- 14 April


    LAB: 43% (-2)
    CON: 27% (+2)
    RFM: 12% (+1)
    LDM: 9% (=)
    GRN: 5% (=)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @deltapolluk, 19-22 Apr.
    Changes w/ 12-15 Apr.

    Labour at 1997 levels, the LDs barely half 1997 levels though.

    Reform at 4 times what UKIP and the Referendum party got then, so if Sunak can squeeze them by polling day he should at least make it closer than Major managed in 1997. Even if Starmer matches Blair's score
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Labour 43% (-1)
    Conservative 20% (-2)
    Reform 14% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+3)
    Green 6% (–)
    SNP 3% (–)
    Other 1% (–)

    Redfield / Wilton
    Changes +/- 14 April


    LAB: 43% (-2)
    CON: 27% (+2)
    RFM: 12% (+1)
    LDM: 9% (=)
    GRN: 5% (=)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @deltapolluk, 19-22 Apr.
    Changes w/ 12-15 Apr.

    Labour at 1997 levels, the LDs barely half 1997 levels though.

    Reform at 4 times what UKIP and the Referendum party got then, so if Sunak can squeeze them by polling day he should at least make it closer than Major managed in 1997. Even if Starmer matches Blair's score
    It is not obvious that Reform will be granted 'Major' party status by Ofcom for the GE campaign in that reasonable polling figures have not yet been confirmed by votes in actual elections. The party has too few candidates to make much impact at the Local Elections on May 2nd.. Ironically both UKIP and the Brexit Party benefited from strong performances at Euro elections.There is little opportunity now for Reform to claim such a breakthrough - and denial of Major party status would limit campaign coverage by the major broadcasters with no right to be included in any Debates or discussion programmes which may be arranged.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,573
    It's a sign of his desperation, and his lack of imagination, that Sunak is hanging everything on this Rwanda nonsense. He genuinely seems to think that if flights go off, he's back in the game. I desperately hope he's wrong. I would be very sad if the British people could be so easily turned by a deeply unpleasant policy that has already had some success in re-badging all asylum seekers as 'illegal immigrants'.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,470
    Something more cheerful - that thread on drinks and food in their natural surroundings

    It’s true, a Philp’s Cornish pasty, fresh and warm and peppery from the bakery in Hayle, eaten on the sea wall, gazing at the waves, after a vigorous cliff top hike, is an absolute thing of beauty. Eaten at home for supper, hmm no. I mean, it’s OK. But you need that working man’s appetite, the salty sea air, the soft crust in your hand, the aaaahhhhh

    A peaty Islay malt in front of a roaring fire in a baronial hotel somewhere in Hebrides after a day in the sad and misty loveliness, yes indeed

    Maldon Oysters at the Maldon oyster shack on Mersea island, right on the River Blackwater where they have been gathered since Roman times, and celebrated

    “The only good thing to come out of Britain is oysters” - Pliny
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,637

    I am shocked!

    Post Office scandal: Investigation that cleared CEO ‘ignored key witnesses’

    Nick Read was cleared of misconduct after whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director


    An investigation into the Post Office chief executive did not interview the complainant’s key witnesses and kept her in the dark, MPs have been told.

    Last week Nick Read, who has run the company since 2019, was exonerated of a “myriad charge sheet” set out in a whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director.

    The existence of the investigation into Read was made public earlier in February by the organisation’s former chairman, Henry Staunton, who was sacked by Kemi Badenoch, the business secretary, in January.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/post-office-scandal-investigation-witnesses-pn5h5vmx0

    Do NOT be shocked WHEN next lawyers popping up in court(s) representing Donald Trump, are sporting Brit accents.

    OR when Kemi Badenoch appears as warm-up act for Donald Trump at some MAGA-maniac jamboree.
    I actually think that Donald Trump might do a bit better with a UK firm of solicitors. He does seem to select some remarkably incompetent lawyers. British ones would be amoral and start with the handicap of their accents and accidentally calling the judge 'M'Ludd', but they couldn't be much worse.

    Reminds me of a Kavanagh QC episode where he went to Florida.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2UGHwqOssQU
    John Thaw, greatest television actor of his day. But the video is blocked "in your country". Rumpole went to the great state of Florida as well. Filming subsidies?
    Most of the Brits I met in Britain who'd been to America had been to Florida. Especially true of working-class folks.

    So setting an American episode of a Brit TV series in Florida makes sense from Brit-audience perspective.
    I would like to proudly state that I have been to America but never been to Florida.
    Nothing to be proud of, seeing as how Florida is a great state and VERY diverse state.

    Check it out some time! Personally fond of St Augustine and the Redneck Riviera.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,773
    legatus said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Labour 43% (-1)
    Conservative 20% (-2)
    Reform 14% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+3)
    Green 6% (–)
    SNP 3% (–)
    Other 1% (–)

    Redfield / Wilton
    Changes +/- 14 April


    LAB: 43% (-2)
    CON: 27% (+2)
    RFM: 12% (+1)
    LDM: 9% (=)
    GRN: 5% (=)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @deltapolluk, 19-22 Apr.
    Changes w/ 12-15 Apr.

    Labour at 1997 levels, the LDs barely half 1997 levels though.

    Reform at 4 times what UKIP and the Referendum party got then, so if Sunak can squeeze them by polling day he should at least make it closer than Major managed in 1997. Even if Starmer matches Blair's score
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Labour 43% (-1)
    Conservative 20% (-2)
    Reform 14% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+3)
    Green 6% (–)
    SNP 3% (–)
    Other 1% (–)

    Redfield / Wilton
    Changes +/- 14 April


    LAB: 43% (-2)
    CON: 27% (+2)
    RFM: 12% (+1)
    LDM: 9% (=)
    GRN: 5% (=)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @deltapolluk, 19-22 Apr.
    Changes w/ 12-15 Apr.

    Labour at 1997 levels, the LDs barely half 1997 levels though.

    Reform at 4 times what UKIP and the Referendum party got then, so if Sunak can squeeze them by polling day he should at least make it closer than Major managed in 1997. Even if Starmer matches Blair's score
    It is not obvious that Reform will be granted 'Major' party status by Ofcom for the GE campaign in that reasonable polling figures have not yet been confirmed by votes in actual elections. The party has too few candidates to make much impact at the Local Elections on May 2nd.. Ironically both UKIP and the Brexit Party benefited from strong performances at Euro elections.There is little opportunity now for Reform to claim such a breakthrough - and denial of Major party status would limit campaign coverage by the major broadcasters with no right to be included in any Debates or discussion programmes which may be arranged.
    Reform being scuppered by Brexit is possibly the very first actual Brexit benefit.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,979
    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    On topic for PB.

    Observation from an online Green Councillor friend in Oxford, to whom I have just been explaining the joys of Ashfield local politics.

    Oh my this sounds like an extremely eventful constituency!

    An additional interesting thing for us is that Conservatives, you know, the National party of govt still, haven’t stood this time in several wards (and didn’t stand against me).

    https://twitter.com/EmilyKerr36/status/1782089214147928248

    Are Conservative Councillor Candidate numbers holding up everywhere, the world wonders?

    The sort of question usually only AndyJS could answer.
    There are 2,655 seats being fought - the Conservatives have 95% candidate coverage, Labour 91%, the Lib Dems 68% and the Greens 62%. Reform are only standing 12% of possible candidates.
    Hence why the locals will be the start of the long decline of Reform as we head to the election. And much, though not all, of that will go back to Con.
    I'm not so sure of that. Reform are not basing their current support on concrete electoral results, but on caputring disatisfaction. Will a 'disappointing' locals cause lots of people to go back to Con, when Reform barely seem to be trying at the locals?

    If their goals is MPs that's still possible, maybe, though not massively likely, but if their goal is to retain support sufficiently to damn the Tories further and then shape the post election aftermath then the Locals won't matter to them that much.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,637

    I am shocked!

    Post Office scandal: Investigation that cleared CEO ‘ignored key witnesses’

    Nick Read was cleared of misconduct after whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director


    An investigation into the Post Office chief executive did not interview the complainant’s key witnesses and kept her in the dark, MPs have been told.

    Last week Nick Read, who has run the company since 2019, was exonerated of a “myriad charge sheet” set out in a whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director.

    The existence of the investigation into Read was made public earlier in February by the organisation’s former chairman, Henry Staunton, who was sacked by Kemi Badenoch, the business secretary, in January.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/post-office-scandal-investigation-witnesses-pn5h5vmx0

    Do NOT be shocked WHEN next lawyers popping up in court(s) representing Donald Trump, are sporting Brit accents.

    OR when Kemi Badenoch appears as warm-up act for Donald Trump at some MAGA-maniac jamboree.
    I actually think that Donald Trump might do a bit better with a UK firm of solicitors. He does seem to select some remarkably incompetent lawyers. British ones would be amoral and start with the handicap of their accents and accidentally calling the judge 'M'Ludd', but they couldn't be much worse.

    Reminds me of a Kavanagh QC episode where he went to Florida.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2UGHwqOssQU
    John Thaw, greatest television actor of his day. But the video is blocked "in your country". Rumpole went to the great state of Florida as well. Filming subsidies?
    Most of the Brits I met in Britain who'd been to America had been to Florida. Especially true of working-class folks.

    So setting an American episode of a Brit TV series in Florida makes sense from Brit-audience perspective.
    My memory of the episode was that it played deeply into stereotypes about the bigoted and sweaty deep South. But apparently Florida was as deep South as they got.
    Florida is the LEAST Southern of Southern states. With the deepest South part being NORTHERN Florida.
  • Options
    legatuslegatus Posts: 87
    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    On topic for PB.

    Observation from an online Green Councillor friend in Oxford, to whom I have just been explaining the joys of Ashfield local politics.

    Oh my this sounds like an extremely eventful constituency!

    An additional interesting thing for us is that Conservatives, you know, the National party of govt still, haven’t stood this time in several wards (and didn’t stand against me).

    https://twitter.com/EmilyKerr36/status/1782089214147928248

    Are Conservative Councillor Candidate numbers holding up everywhere, the world wonders?

    The sort of question usually only AndyJS could answer.
    There are 2,655 seats being fought - the Conservatives have 95% candidate coverage, Labour 91%, the Lib Dems 68% and the Greens 62%. Reform are only standing 12% of possible candidates.
    Hence why the locals will be the start of the long decline of Reform as we head to the election. And much, though not all, of that will go back to Con.
    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    On topic for PB.

    Observation from an online Green Councillor friend in Oxford, to whom I have just been explaining the joys of Ashfield local politics.

    Oh my this sounds like an extremely eventful constituency!

    An additional interesting thing for us is that Conservatives, you know, the National party of govt still, haven’t stood this time in several wards (and didn’t stand against me).

    https://twitter.com/EmilyKerr36/status/1782089214147928248

    Are Conservative Councillor Candidate numbers holding up everywhere, the world wonders?

    The sort of question usually only AndyJS could answer.
    There are 2,655 seats being fought - the Conservatives have 95% candidate coverage, Labour 91%, the Lib Dems 68% and the Greens 62%. Reform are only standing 12% of possible candidates.
    Hence why the locals will be the start of the long decline of Reform as we head to the election. And much, though not all, of that will go back to Con.
    For what it is worth, polling evidence suggests that only circa 35% of Reform voters would switch to the Tories were a candidate not to be standing. Moreover over 15% would vote Labour - so the net benefit to the Tories might be quite modest.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,408
    Returned from an evening dog walk up in the hills to mega lolz at this survey!

    I often think that American religiosity is more about personal image and brand than genuine belief.


  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,745

    It's a sign of his desperation, and his lack of imagination, that Sunak is hanging everything on this Rwanda nonsense. He genuinely seems to think that if flights go off, he's back in the game. I desperately hope he's wrong. I would be very sad if the British people could be so easily turned by a deeply unpleasant policy that has already had some success in re-badging all asylum seekers as 'illegal immigrants'.

    Trouble is he chops and changes what he wants to hang everything off each week, and little seems to stick

    - Rwanda: nobody really thinks it’ll make any difference
    - Tax cuts: come and gone, polls didn’t shift
    - Starmer the lefty lawyer defended terrorists: hasn’t worked
    - campaign against sicknote benefits scroungers: just makes him look like a Tory

    Not sure what else there is left.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,127
    edited April 22
    isam said:

    I’ve never been to church other than weddings, funerals or christenings but, as someone who is sad that Christianity is no longer going to be the dominant faith in England when my kids are grown up, I feel I should start.

    I won’t though, the same way I like the independent shops in our High St and still order stuff cheaper online. When they’re gone I’ll miss them & complaint that people never used them, as my houses value plummets

    At the way we are going you can work from home, order all your goods online, order your food and drink online, have an at home gym, watch films and dramas and plays and musicals and sports online, meet your friends online and even now join religious services online. So no wonder not just some churches but pubs and bars, cinemas, theatres, shops, gyms and public transport and non top league sports clubs are closing or finding it tougher to maintain their customer base.

    Soon those who wfh will barely need to leave the house if the online schools idea takes off. Doesn't do a great deal for community cohesion though and politically often leads to echo chambers in terms of self selection of who you meet and follow online and on social media
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,252
    kle4 said:

    DougSeal said:

    Far-right Zionist agitator, Gideon Falter is a Vice-Chair at the JNF (illegal settlement funders)

    Why are mainstream media not mentioning this?

    Because it’s utterly irrelevant to the fact he was asked to move on for looking “too Jewish”. Unless you think the plod in question researched his background before being the sort of antisemitic knob that your post impliedly defends on the occasion in question. Hope that helps your understanding in this.
    Did the cop say ‘too’ Jewish?
    Being 'openly' jewish was apparently part of the problem, so if he was less openly so presumably it would have been less of one, and thus he was too jewish it seems. But those exact words? No.
    Ah, the quotation marks suggesting a quote confused me.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,517
    edited April 22

    I am shocked!

    Post Office scandal: Investigation that cleared CEO ‘ignored key witnesses’

    Nick Read was cleared of misconduct after whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director


    An investigation into the Post Office chief executive did not interview the complainant’s key witnesses and kept her in the dark, MPs have been told.

    Last week Nick Read, who has run the company since 2019, was exonerated of a “myriad charge sheet” set out in a whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director.

    The existence of the investigation into Read was made public earlier in February by the organisation’s former chairman, Henry Staunton, who was sacked by Kemi Badenoch, the business secretary, in January.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/post-office-scandal-investigation-witnesses-pn5h5vmx0

    Do NOT be shocked WHEN next lawyers popping up in court(s) representing Donald Trump, are sporting Brit accents.

    OR when Kemi Badenoch appears as warm-up act for Donald Trump at some MAGA-maniac jamboree.
    I actually think that Donald Trump might do a bit better with a UK firm of solicitors. He does seem to select some remarkably incompetent lawyers. British ones would be amoral and start with the handicap of their accents and accidentally calling the judge 'M'Ludd', but they couldn't be much worse.

    Reminds me of a Kavanagh QC episode where he went to Florida.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2UGHwqOssQU
    John Thaw, greatest television actor of his day. But the video is blocked "in your country". Rumpole went to the great state of Florida as well. Filming subsidies?
    Was Rumpole actually in Forida, or filmed in the UK with some potted palms and the standard US-actors-who-live-here called in?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,773

    I am shocked!

    Post Office scandal: Investigation that cleared CEO ‘ignored key witnesses’

    Nick Read was cleared of misconduct after whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director


    An investigation into the Post Office chief executive did not interview the complainant’s key witnesses and kept her in the dark, MPs have been told.

    Last week Nick Read, who has run the company since 2019, was exonerated of a “myriad charge sheet” set out in a whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director.

    The existence of the investigation into Read was made public earlier in February by the organisation’s former chairman, Henry Staunton, who was sacked by Kemi Badenoch, the business secretary, in January.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/post-office-scandal-investigation-witnesses-pn5h5vmx0

    Do NOT be shocked WHEN next lawyers popping up in court(s) representing Donald Trump, are sporting Brit accents.

    OR when Kemi Badenoch appears as warm-up act for Donald Trump at some MAGA-maniac jamboree.
    I actually think that Donald Trump might do a bit better with a UK firm of solicitors. He does seem to select some remarkably incompetent lawyers. British ones would be amoral and start with the handicap of their accents and accidentally calling the judge 'M'Ludd', but they couldn't be much worse.

    Reminds me of a Kavanagh QC episode where he went to Florida.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2UGHwqOssQU
    John Thaw, greatest television actor of his day. But the video is blocked "in your country". Rumpole went to the great state of Florida as well. Filming subsidies?
    Most of the Brits I met in Britain who'd been to America had been to Florida. Especially true of working-class folks.

    So setting an American episode of a Brit TV series in Florida makes sense from Brit-audience perspective.
    I would like to proudly state that I have been to America but never been to Florida.
    Nothing to be proud of, seeing as how Florida is a great state and VERY diverse state.

    Check it out some time! Personally fond of St Augustine and the Redneck Riviera.
    Fair point - I will amend my ways.

    I actually have a hankering for going to Key West and doing some offshore sport-fishing. Blame Hemingway.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,745
    legatus said:

    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    On topic for PB.

    Observation from an online Green Councillor friend in Oxford, to whom I have just been explaining the joys of Ashfield local politics.

    Oh my this sounds like an extremely eventful constituency!

    An additional interesting thing for us is that Conservatives, you know, the National party of govt still, haven’t stood this time in several wards (and didn’t stand against me).

    https://twitter.com/EmilyKerr36/status/1782089214147928248

    Are Conservative Councillor Candidate numbers holding up everywhere, the world wonders?

    The sort of question usually only AndyJS could answer.
    There are 2,655 seats being fought - the Conservatives have 95% candidate coverage, Labour 91%, the Lib Dems 68% and the Greens 62%. Reform are only standing 12% of possible candidates.
    Hence why the locals will be the start of the long decline of Reform as we head to the election. And much, though not all, of that will go back to Con.
    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    On topic for PB.

    Observation from an online Green Councillor friend in Oxford, to whom I have just been explaining the joys of Ashfield local politics.

    Oh my this sounds like an extremely eventful constituency!

    An additional interesting thing for us is that Conservatives, you know, the National party of govt still, haven’t stood this time in several wards (and didn’t stand against me).

    https://twitter.com/EmilyKerr36/status/1782089214147928248

    Are Conservative Councillor Candidate numbers holding up everywhere, the world wonders?

    The sort of question usually only AndyJS could answer.
    There are 2,655 seats being fought - the Conservatives have 95% candidate coverage, Labour 91%, the Lib Dems 68% and the Greens 62%. Reform are only standing 12% of possible candidates.
    Hence why the locals will be the start of the long decline of Reform as we head to the election. And much, though not all, of that will go back to Con.
    For what it is worth, polling evidence suggests that only circa 35% of Reform voters would switch to the Tories were a candidate not to be standing. Moreover over 15% would vote Labour - so the net benefit to the Tories might be quite modest.
    That’s what they tell the pollsters. But they came largely from Con. That’s where they’ll go back - well, there and abstention.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,176
    I'm so pleased Rishi is making arrangements with a Commonwealth country to host the boat people
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,950
    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    @TSE

    "we have regular polling failures on both sides of the pond"

    This is my nagging fear for POTUS24... :(

    Mine is that too many swing states are indeed very close, emboldening those who would be willing to use legislative roles to subvert the outcomes.
    How does one incorporate a slow-motion coup into a betting strategy? We didn't have these problems in 2012... :(
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,546

    It's a sign of his desperation, and his lack of imagination, that Sunak is hanging everything on this Rwanda nonsense. He genuinely seems to think that if flights go off, he's back in the game. I desperately hope he's wrong. I would be very sad if the British people could be so easily turned by a deeply unpleasant policy that has already had some success in re-badging all asylum seekers as 'illegal immigrants'.

    I don't think it will. Sunak has two problems, I reckon.

    The main one is that he can't back down now without looking like a fool. A sharper operator (Johnson, perhaps?) would have used the Supreme Court decision to make a lot of noise and bury the plan in a pile of reviews. Promise it in the next manifesto.

    The other one is that I fear for the sanity of the Cabinet, that a bunker mindset has set in. "We will pass this, even if we have to stay here all night" reeks of a teacher who has lost control of the situation.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,773
    Leon said:

    Something more cheerful - that thread on drinks and food in their natural surroundings

    It’s true, a Philp’s Cornish pasty, fresh and warm and peppery from the bakery in Hayle, eaten on the sea wall, gazing at the waves, after a vigorous cliff top hike, is an absolute thing of beauty. Eaten at home for supper, hmm no. I mean, it’s OK. But you need that working man’s appetite, the salty sea air, the soft crust in your hand, the aaaahhhhh

    A peaty Islay malt in front of a roaring fire in a baronial hotel somewhere in Hebrides after a day in the sad and misty loveliness, yes indeed

    Maldon Oysters at the Maldon oyster shack on Mersea island, right on the River Blackwater where they have been gathered since Roman times, and celebrated

    “The only good thing to come out of Britain is oysters” - Pliny

    Asparagus from our garden. 15 food metres, 15 minutes from harvest to plate.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,950

    I am shocked!

    Post Office scandal: Investigation that cleared CEO ‘ignored key witnesses’

    Nick Read was cleared of misconduct after whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director


    An investigation into the Post Office chief executive did not interview the complainant’s key witnesses and kept her in the dark, MPs have been told.

    Last week Nick Read, who has run the company since 2019, was exonerated of a “myriad charge sheet” set out in a whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director.

    The existence of the investigation into Read was made public earlier in February by the organisation’s former chairman, Henry Staunton, who was sacked by Kemi Badenoch, the business secretary, in January.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/post-office-scandal-investigation-witnesses-pn5h5vmx0

    Do NOT be shocked WHEN next lawyers popping up in court(s) representing Donald Trump, are sporting Brit accents.

    OR when Kemi Badenoch appears as warm-up act for Donald Trump at some MAGA-maniac jamboree.
    I actually think that Donald Trump might do a bit better with a UK firm of solicitors. He does seem to select some remarkably incompetent lawyers. British ones would be amoral and start with the handicap of their accents and accidentally calling the judge 'M'Ludd', but they couldn't be much worse.

    Reminds me of a Kavanagh QC episode where he went to Florida.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2UGHwqOssQU
    John Thaw, greatest television actor of his day. But the video is blocked "in your country". Rumpole went to the great state of Florida as well. Filming subsidies?
    Most of the Brits I met in Britain who'd been to America had been to Florida. Especially true of working-class folks.

    So setting an American episode of a Brit TV series in Florida makes sense from Brit-audience perspective.
    I would like to proudly state that I have been to America but never been to Florida.
    Nothing to be proud of, seeing as how Florida is a great state and VERY diverse state.

    Check it out some time! Personally fond of St Augustine and the Redneck Riviera.
    Fair point - I will amend my ways.

    I actually have a hankering for going to Key West and doing some offshore sport-fishing. Blame Hemingway.
    I want to stand by a bay, say something dramatic, adjust my sunglasses and hear "Won't get fooled again". Blame "CSI Miami" :)
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,846

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Pagan2 said:

    A comment on the header....you look at my cell phone data you would imagine I dont move more than a 5 foot radius. My mobile stays on my desk, I leave the house it doesn't travel with me. I don't imagine I am the only one that isn't concerned enough to take a mobile everywhere they go

    I take my mobile to Church, but switch it off. How would this show in the data?
    A switched off cellphone is only switched off for certain definitions of off
    That's as maybe, but how would it affect this data?

    Note: I really am not bothered if GCHQ/Mi5/CIA/FSB know that I am in church or my kitchen.

    I never claimed it would, I merely mentioned that like me some people dont have the habit of going everywhere with a mobile. If you don't know how many just go out without one then the data is meaningless
    I am going to stick my neck out and suggest that the number of mobile phone owners who never take their phone out is way below 5%. I think the bar for 'grocery store' in the last chart supports that view.
    Again there is a difference between never and always. I know plenty of people that don't think I am going round the shop and be back in 10 minutes that don't bother....they go out for a whole day then they will
    Sure, but even if you only include 'always', 'almost always' and 'usually', you still get to >95% by my reading of the bar-chart.

    Anyway, you said "If you don't know how many just go out without one then the data is meaningless" - but we do have an indication of that, so the data is not meaningless.
    My fathers girlfriend would probably answer always as she is almost never without her phone.....however when she goes to church she tends to leave it in the car which won't be parked near the church. I tend to be cynical of such polls
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,020
    MattW said:

    Slight overreaction from the BBC. The increase seems to be 0.1% .

    Homeowner pain as major banks hike mortgage rates
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68874847

    MattW said:

    Slight overreaction from the BBC. The increase seems to be 0.1% .

    Homeowner pain as major banks hike mortgage rates
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68874847

    0.1% to change the rate from 5,3% to 5.4%.

    Which is really only a 2% change in the actual rate but I note that the rate eek twin A has got in mid February is 0.35% less than the rate Santander wishes to charge today.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,773

    It's a sign of his desperation, and his lack of imagination, that Sunak is hanging everything on this Rwanda nonsense. He genuinely seems to think that if flights go off, he's back in the game. I desperately hope he's wrong. I would be very sad if the British people could be so easily turned by a deeply unpleasant policy that has already had some success in re-badging all asylum seekers as 'illegal immigrants'.

    I don't think it will. Sunak has two problems, I reckon.

    The main one is that he can't back down now without looking like a fool. A sharper operator (Johnson, perhaps?) would have used the Supreme Court decision to make a lot of noise and bury the plan in a pile of reviews. Promise it in the next manifesto.

    The other one is that I fear for the sanity of the Cabinet, that a bunker mindset has set in. "We will pass this, even if we have to stay here all night" reeks of a teacher who has lost control of the situation.
    Also consider this:

    Sunak gets his first flights away by June - a few dozen unfortunates deported to Rwanda. Then in the inevitable hot dry summer that follows record-breaking boats are on the news every night. How then has Rwanda worked?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,127
    legatus said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Labour 43% (-1)
    Conservative 20% (-2)
    Reform 14% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+3)
    Green 6% (–)
    SNP 3% (–)
    Other 1% (–)

    Redfield / Wilton
    Changes +/- 14 April


    LAB: 43% (-2)
    CON: 27% (+2)
    RFM: 12% (+1)
    LDM: 9% (=)
    GRN: 5% (=)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @deltapolluk, 19-22 Apr.
    Changes w/ 12-15 Apr.

    Labour at 1997 levels, the LDs barely half 1997 levels though.

    Reform at 4 times what UKIP and the Referendum party got then, so if Sunak can squeeze them by polling day he should at least make it closer than Major managed in 1997. Even if Starmer matches Blair's score
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Labour 43% (-1)
    Conservative 20% (-2)
    Reform 14% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+3)
    Green 6% (–)
    SNP 3% (–)
    Other 1% (–)

    Redfield / Wilton
    Changes +/- 14 April


    LAB: 43% (-2)
    CON: 27% (+2)
    RFM: 12% (+1)
    LDM: 9% (=)
    GRN: 5% (=)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @deltapolluk, 19-22 Apr.
    Changes w/ 12-15 Apr.

    Labour at 1997 levels, the LDs barely half 1997 levels though.

    Reform at 4 times what UKIP and the Referendum party got then, so if Sunak can squeeze them by polling day he should at least make it closer than Major managed in 1997. Even if Starmer matches Blair's score
    It is not obvious that Reform will be granted 'Major' party status by Ofcom for the GE campaign in that reasonable polling figures have not yet been confirmed by votes in actual elections. The party has too few candidates to make much impact at the Local Elections on May 2nd.. Ironically both UKIP and the Brexit Party benefited from strong performances at Euro elections.There is little opportunity now for Reform to claim such a breakthrough - and denial of Major party status would limit campaign coverage by the major broadcasters with no right to be included in any Debates or discussion programmes which may be arranged.
    Indeed giving Sunak further chance to squeeze them in the debates
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,789

    I am shocked!

    Post Office scandal: Investigation that cleared CEO ‘ignored key witnesses’

    Nick Read was cleared of misconduct after whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director


    An investigation into the Post Office chief executive did not interview the complainant’s key witnesses and kept her in the dark, MPs have been told.

    Last week Nick Read, who has run the company since 2019, was exonerated of a “myriad charge sheet” set out in a whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director.

    The existence of the investigation into Read was made public earlier in February by the organisation’s former chairman, Henry Staunton, who was sacked by Kemi Badenoch, the business secretary, in January.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/post-office-scandal-investigation-witnesses-pn5h5vmx0

    Do NOT be shocked WHEN next lawyers popping up in court(s) representing Donald Trump, are sporting Brit accents.

    OR when Kemi Badenoch appears as warm-up act for Donald Trump at some MAGA-maniac jamboree.
    I actually think that Donald Trump might do a bit better with a UK firm of solicitors. He does seem to select some remarkably incompetent lawyers. British ones would be amoral and start with the handicap of their accents and accidentally calling the judge 'M'Ludd', but they couldn't be much worse.

    Reminds me of a Kavanagh QC episode where he went to Florida.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2UGHwqOssQU
    John Thaw, greatest television actor of his day. But the video is blocked "in your country". Rumpole went to the great state of Florida as well. Filming subsidies?
    Most of the Brits I met in Britain who'd been to America had been to Florida. Especially true of working-class folks.

    So setting an American episode of a Brit TV series in Florida makes sense from Brit-audience perspective.
    I would like to proudly state that I have been to America but never been to Florida.
    The Theme parks are fun with kids, but there is also some great nature in the Everglades, Gulf Coast and Florida Keys. Good seafood too.
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,846
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    I’ve never been to church other than weddings, funerals or christenings but, as someone who is sad that Christianity is no longer going to be the dominant faith in England when my kids are grown up, I feel I should start.

    I won’t though, the same way I like the independent shops in our High St and still order stuff cheaper online. When they’re gone I’ll miss them & complaint that people never used them, as my houses value plummets

    At the way we are going you can work from home, order all your goods online, order your food and drink online, have an at home gym, watch films and dramas and plays and musicals and sports online, meet your friends online and even now join religious services online. So no wonder not just some churches but pubs and bars, cinemas, theatres, shops, gyms and public transport and non top league sports clubs are closing or finding it tougher to maintain their customer base.

    Soon those who wfh will barely need to leave the house if the online schools idea takes off. Doesn't do a great deal for community cohesion though and politically often leads to echo chambers in terms of self selection of who you meet and follow online and on social media
    You mistake community for those you live close too. It's not the same thing all my neighbours are twats that I wouldn't want to mix with
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,979

    I am shocked!

    Post Office scandal: Investigation that cleared CEO ‘ignored key witnesses’

    Nick Read was cleared of misconduct after whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director


    An investigation into the Post Office chief executive did not interview the complainant’s key witnesses and kept her in the dark, MPs have been told.

    Last week Nick Read, who has run the company since 2019, was exonerated of a “myriad charge sheet” set out in a whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director.

    The existence of the investigation into Read was made public earlier in February by the organisation’s former chairman, Henry Staunton, who was sacked by Kemi Badenoch, the business secretary, in January.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/post-office-scandal-investigation-witnesses-pn5h5vmx0

    Do NOT be shocked WHEN next lawyers popping up in court(s) representing Donald Trump, are sporting Brit accents.

    OR when Kemi Badenoch appears as warm-up act for Donald Trump at some MAGA-maniac jamboree.
    I actually think that Donald Trump might do a bit better with a UK firm of solicitors. He does seem to select some remarkably incompetent lawyers. British ones would be amoral and start with the handicap of their accents and accidentally calling the judge 'M'Ludd', but they couldn't be much worse.

    Reminds me of a Kavanagh QC episode where he went to Florida.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2UGHwqOssQU
    John Thaw, greatest television actor of his day. But the video is blocked "in your country". Rumpole went to the great state of Florida as well. Filming subsidies?
    Most of the Brits I met in Britain who'd been to America had been to Florida. Especially true of working-class folks.

    So setting an American episode of a Brit TV series in Florida makes sense from Brit-audience perspective.
    My memory of the episode was that it played deeply into stereotypes about the bigoted and sweaty deep South. But apparently Florida was as deep South as they got.
    Florida is the LEAST Southern of Southern states. With the deepest South part being NORTHERN Florida.
    My mental picture of Florida goes like this from North to South:

    Backwoods folks
    Disneyland
    Swamps
    Miami

    Where Jacksonville, Tallahasse and Tampa fit in I've no idea.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,252
    edited April 22
    Stormy cutting a fine figure at court today. I gather the mushroom motif means something..


  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,127

    I am shocked!

    Post Office scandal: Investigation that cleared CEO ‘ignored key witnesses’

    Nick Read was cleared of misconduct after whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director


    An investigation into the Post Office chief executive did not interview the complainant’s key witnesses and kept her in the dark, MPs have been told.

    Last week Nick Read, who has run the company since 2019, was exonerated of a “myriad charge sheet” set out in a whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director.

    The existence of the investigation into Read was made public earlier in February by the organisation’s former chairman, Henry Staunton, who was sacked by Kemi Badenoch, the business secretary, in January.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/post-office-scandal-investigation-witnesses-pn5h5vmx0

    Do NOT be shocked WHEN next lawyers popping up in court(s) representing Donald Trump, are sporting Brit accents.

    OR when Kemi Badenoch appears as warm-up act for Donald Trump at some MAGA-maniac jamboree.
    I actually think that Donald Trump might do a bit better with a UK firm of solicitors. He does seem to select some remarkably incompetent lawyers. British ones would be amoral and start with the handicap of their accents and accidentally calling the judge 'M'Ludd', but they couldn't be much worse.

    Reminds me of a Kavanagh QC episode where he went to Florida.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2UGHwqOssQU
    John Thaw, greatest television actor of his day. But the video is blocked "in your country". Rumpole went to the great state of Florida as well. Filming subsidies?
    Most of the Brits I met in Britain who'd been to America had been to Florida. Especially true of working-class folks.

    So setting an American episode of a Brit TV series in Florida makes sense from Brit-audience perspective.
    My memory of the episode was that it played deeply into stereotypes about the bigoted and sweaty deep South. But apparently Florida was as deep South as they got.
    Florida is the LEAST Southern of Southern states. With the deepest South part being NORTHERN Florida.
    It used to be, now Virginia is probably the least Southern state, much of it now DC exurbs and it even voted for Hillary in 2016
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,773
    edited April 22

    I am shocked!

    Post Office scandal: Investigation that cleared CEO ‘ignored key witnesses’

    Nick Read was cleared of misconduct after whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director


    An investigation into the Post Office chief executive did not interview the complainant’s key witnesses and kept her in the dark, MPs have been told.

    Last week Nick Read, who has run the company since 2019, was exonerated of a “myriad charge sheet” set out in a whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director.

    The existence of the investigation into Read was made public earlier in February by the organisation’s former chairman, Henry Staunton, who was sacked by Kemi Badenoch, the business secretary, in January.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/post-office-scandal-investigation-witnesses-pn5h5vmx0

    Do NOT be shocked WHEN next lawyers popping up in court(s) representing Donald Trump, are sporting Brit accents.

    OR when Kemi Badenoch appears as warm-up act for Donald Trump at some MAGA-maniac jamboree.
    I actually think that Donald Trump might do a bit better with a UK firm of solicitors. He does seem to select some remarkably incompetent lawyers. British ones would be amoral and start with the handicap of their accents and accidentally calling the judge 'M'Ludd', but they couldn't be much worse.

    Reminds me of a Kavanagh QC episode where he went to Florida.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2UGHwqOssQU
    John Thaw, greatest television actor of his day. But the video is blocked "in your country". Rumpole went to the great state of Florida as well. Filming subsidies?
    Was Rumpole actually in Forida, or filmed in the UK with some potted palms and the standard US-actors-who-live-here called in?
    Camber Sands in February stood in for the Sahara Desert in Carry On Follow That Camel.

    Shooting had to be halted several times because there was snow on the sands.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    isam said:

    I’ve never been to church other than weddings, funerals or christenings but, as someone who is sad that Christianity is no longer going to be the dominant faith in England when my kids are grown up, I feel I should start.

    I won’t though, the same way I like the independent shops in our High St and still order stuff cheaper online. When they’re gone I’ll miss them & complaint that people never used them, as my houses value plummets

    https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/why-are-all-the-pubs-closing-ask-people-who-never-go-to-the-pub-200903051623
  • Options
    legatuslegatus Posts: 87
    TimS said:

    legatus said:

    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    On topic for PB.

    Observation from an online Green Councillor friend in Oxford, to whom I have just been explaining the joys of Ashfield local politics.

    Oh my this sounds like an extremely eventful constituency!

    An additional interesting thing for us is that Conservatives, you know, the National party of govt still, haven’t stood this time in several wards (and didn’t stand against me).

    https://twitter.com/EmilyKerr36/status/1782089214147928248

    Are Conservative Councillor Candidate numbers holding up everywhere, the world wonders?

    The sort of question usually only AndyJS could answer.
    There are 2,655 seats being fought - the Conservatives have 95% candidate coverage, Labour 91%, the Lib Dems 68% and the Greens 62%. Reform are only standing 12% of possible candidates.
    Hence why the locals will be the start of the long decline of Reform as we head to the election. And much, though not all, of that will go back to Con.
    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    On topic for PB.

    Observation from an online Green Councillor friend in Oxford, to whom I have just been explaining the joys of Ashfield local politics.

    Oh my this sounds like an extremely eventful constituency!

    An additional interesting thing for us is that Conservatives, you know, the National party of govt still, haven’t stood this time in several wards (and didn’t stand against me).

    https://twitter.com/EmilyKerr36/status/1782089214147928248

    Are Conservative Councillor Candidate numbers holding up everywhere, the world wonders?

    The sort of question usually only AndyJS could answer.
    There are 2,655 seats being fought - the Conservatives have 95% candidate coverage, Labour 91%, the Lib Dems 68% and the Greens 62%. Reform are only standing 12% of possible candidates.
    Hence why the locals will be the start of the long decline of Reform as we head to the election. And much, though not all, of that will go back to Con.
    For what it is worth, polling evidence suggests that only circa 35% of Reform voters would switch to the Tories were a candidate not to be standing. Moreover over 15% would vote Labour - so the net benefit to the Tories might be quite modest.
    That’s what they tell the pollsters. But they came largely from Con. That’s where they’ll go back - well, there and abstention.
    TimS said:

    legatus said:

    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    On topic for PB.

    Observation from an online Green Councillor friend in Oxford, to whom I have just been explaining the joys of Ashfield local politics.

    Oh my this sounds like an extremely eventful constituency!

    An additional interesting thing for us is that Conservatives, you know, the National party of govt still, haven’t stood this time in several wards (and didn’t stand against me).

    https://twitter.com/EmilyKerr36/status/1782089214147928248

    Are Conservative Councillor Candidate numbers holding up everywhere, the world wonders?

    The sort of question usually only AndyJS could answer.
    There are 2,655 seats being fought - the Conservatives have 95% candidate coverage, Labour 91%, the Lib Dems 68% and the Greens 62%. Reform are only standing 12% of possible candidates.
    Hence why the locals will be the start of the long decline of Reform as we head to the election. And much, though not all, of that will go back to Con.
    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    On topic for PB.

    Observation from an online Green Councillor friend in Oxford, to whom I have just been explaining the joys of Ashfield local politics.

    Oh my this sounds like an extremely eventful constituency!

    An additional interesting thing for us is that Conservatives, you know, the National party of govt still, haven’t stood this time in several wards (and didn’t stand against me).

    https://twitter.com/EmilyKerr36/status/1782089214147928248

    Are Conservative Councillor Candidate numbers holding up everywhere, the world wonders?

    The sort of question usually only AndyJS could answer.
    There are 2,655 seats being fought - the Conservatives have 95% candidate coverage, Labour 91%, the Lib Dems 68% and the Greens 62%. Reform are only standing 12% of possible candidates.
    Hence why the locals will be the start of the long decline of Reform as we head to the election. And much, though not all, of that will go back to Con.
    For what it is worth, polling evidence suggests that only circa 35% of Reform voters would switch to the Tories were a candidate not to be standing. Moreover over 15% would vote Labour - so the net benefit to the Tories might be quite modest.
    That’s what they tell the pollsters. But they came largely from Con. That’s where they’ll go back - well, there and abstention.
    Quite a few of them may be traditional Labour voters in Red Wall seats who voted Tory in 2019 'to get Brexit done.' Such voters could now switch back to Labour - the point being that whilst they may well have been Tory voters in 2019 their support for the party goes back no further than that and lacks any real depth.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,127
    edited April 22
    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    I’ve never been to church other than weddings, funerals or christenings but, as someone who is sad that Christianity is no longer going to be the dominant faith in England when my kids are grown up, I feel I should start.

    I won’t though, the same way I like the independent shops in our High St and still order stuff cheaper online. When they’re gone I’ll miss them & complaint that people never used them, as my houses value plummets

    At the way we are going you can work from home, order all your goods online, order your food and drink online, have an at home gym, watch films and dramas and plays and musicals and sports online, meet your friends online and even now join religious services online. So no wonder not just some churches but pubs and bars, cinemas, theatres, shops, gyms and public transport and non top league sports clubs are closing or finding it tougher to maintain their customer base.

    Soon those who wfh will barely need to leave the house if the online schools idea takes off. Doesn't do a great deal for community cohesion though and politically often leads to echo chambers in terms of self selection of who you meet and follow online and on social media
    You mistake community for those you live close too. It's not the same thing all my neighbours are twats that I wouldn't want to mix with
    It isn't just your neighbours, it is the town, village or city where you live. Most people you mix with in pubs, bars, restaurants, churches, shops, cinemas and theatres, football terraces and cricket club stands are not your immediate neighbours but as people do more and more online they mix less with them too
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,470

    Leon said:

    Something more cheerful - that thread on drinks and food in their natural surroundings

    It’s true, a Philp’s Cornish pasty, fresh and warm and peppery from the bakery in Hayle, eaten on the sea wall, gazing at the waves, after a vigorous cliff top hike, is an absolute thing of beauty. Eaten at home for supper, hmm no. I mean, it’s OK. But you need that working man’s appetite, the salty sea air, the soft crust in your hand, the aaaahhhhh

    A peaty Islay malt in front of a roaring fire in a baronial hotel somewhere in Hebrides after a day in the sad and misty loveliness, yes indeed

    Maldon Oysters at the Maldon oyster shack on Mersea island, right on the River Blackwater where they have been gathered since Roman times, and celebrated

    “The only good thing to come out of Britain is oysters” - Pliny

    Asparagus from our garden. 15 food metres, 15 minutes from harvest to plate.
    Good one

    In the early summer of 2021 - still headfucked by Covid - i did my first post pandemic Gazette assignment. Eating food all along the East Anglian coast. Yes, it’s hard work, but someone etc

    The very first meal was an amazing lunch in Burnham on Crouch where I ate the last of the local asparagus with unctuous hollandaise in a deicious and very English garden

    Yes, English asparagus in England!

    Cold Czech pilsener in a cobbled Bohemian square in the August heat. Perfect

    Salad Nicoise on a blazing summer day in a Provençal town looking down on Nice, itself
  • Options
    WaterfallWaterfall Posts: 96

    HYUFD said:

    I never take my phone to church, for starters using it in the services is rather rude, a bit like doing so in a play or a cinema or concert. So am not sure this tells us much

    I take my mobile everywhere but switch it off or put it in silent mode where appropriate, such as at a church service.

    I like to think that deep in Moscow/GCHQ/Langley someone is tracking my every move.
    If i go for a long walk i switch my mobile off....feels more relaxing somehow.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,979
    legatus said:

    TimS said:

    legatus said:

    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    On topic for PB.

    Observation from an online Green Councillor friend in Oxford, to whom I have just been explaining the joys of Ashfield local politics.

    Oh my this sounds like an extremely eventful constituency!

    An additional interesting thing for us is that Conservatives, you know, the National party of govt still, haven’t stood this time in several wards (and didn’t stand against me).

    https://twitter.com/EmilyKerr36/status/1782089214147928248

    Are Conservative Councillor Candidate numbers holding up everywhere, the world wonders?

    The sort of question usually only AndyJS could answer.
    There are 2,655 seats being fought - the Conservatives have 95% candidate coverage, Labour 91%, the Lib Dems 68% and the Greens 62%. Reform are only standing 12% of possible candidates.
    Hence why the locals will be the start of the long decline of Reform as we head to the election. And much, though not all, of that will go back to Con.
    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    On topic for PB.

    Observation from an online Green Councillor friend in Oxford, to whom I have just been explaining the joys of Ashfield local politics.

    Oh my this sounds like an extremely eventful constituency!

    An additional interesting thing for us is that Conservatives, you know, the National party of govt still, haven’t stood this time in several wards (and didn’t stand against me).

    https://twitter.com/EmilyKerr36/status/1782089214147928248

    Are Conservative Councillor Candidate numbers holding up everywhere, the world wonders?

    The sort of question usually only AndyJS could answer.
    There are 2,655 seats being fought - the Conservatives have 95% candidate coverage, Labour 91%, the Lib Dems 68% and the Greens 62%. Reform are only standing 12% of possible candidates.
    Hence why the locals will be the start of the long decline of Reform as we head to the election. And much, though not all, of that will go back to Con.
    For what it is worth, polling evidence suggests that only circa 35% of Reform voters would switch to the Tories were a candidate not to be standing. Moreover over 15% would vote Labour - so the net benefit to the Tories might be quite modest.
    That’s what they tell the pollsters. But they came largely from Con. That’s where they’ll go back - well, there and abstention.
    TimS said:

    legatus said:

    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    On topic for PB.

    Observation from an online Green Councillor friend in Oxford, to whom I have just been explaining the joys of Ashfield local politics.

    Oh my this sounds like an extremely eventful constituency!

    An additional interesting thing for us is that Conservatives, you know, the National party of govt still, haven’t stood this time in several wards (and didn’t stand against me).

    https://twitter.com/EmilyKerr36/status/1782089214147928248

    Are Conservative Councillor Candidate numbers holding up everywhere, the world wonders?

    The sort of question usually only AndyJS could answer.
    There are 2,655 seats being fought - the Conservatives have 95% candidate coverage, Labour 91%, the Lib Dems 68% and the Greens 62%. Reform are only standing 12% of possible candidates.
    Hence why the locals will be the start of the long decline of Reform as we head to the election. And much, though not all, of that will go back to Con.
    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    On topic for PB.

    Observation from an online Green Councillor friend in Oxford, to whom I have just been explaining the joys of Ashfield local politics.

    Oh my this sounds like an extremely eventful constituency!

    An additional interesting thing for us is that Conservatives, you know, the National party of govt still, haven’t stood this time in several wards (and didn’t stand against me).

    https://twitter.com/EmilyKerr36/status/1782089214147928248

    Are Conservative Councillor Candidate numbers holding up everywhere, the world wonders?

    The sort of question usually only AndyJS could answer.
    There are 2,655 seats being fought - the Conservatives have 95% candidate coverage, Labour 91%, the Lib Dems 68% and the Greens 62%. Reform are only standing 12% of possible candidates.
    Hence why the locals will be the start of the long decline of Reform as we head to the election. And much, though not all, of that will go back to Con.
    For what it is worth, polling evidence suggests that only circa 35% of Reform voters would switch to the Tories were a candidate not to be standing. Moreover over 15% would vote Labour - so the net benefit to the Tories might be quite modest.
    That’s what they tell the pollsters. But they came largely from Con. That’s where they’ll go back - well, there and abstention.
    Quite a few of them may be traditional Labour voters in Red Wall seats who voted Tory in 2019 'to get Brexit done.' Such voters could now switch back to Labour - the point being that whilst they may well have been Tory voters in 2019 their support for the party goes back no further than that and lacks any real depth.
    The Red Wall was trending bluer for some time, with 2019 supercharging it, but the switch seems to have had the staying power of a fruit shortcake in a cup of tea.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,573
    edited April 22

    It's a sign of his desperation, and his lack of imagination, that Sunak is hanging everything on this Rwanda nonsense. He genuinely seems to think that if flights go off, he's back in the game. I desperately hope he's wrong. I would be very sad if the British people could be so easily turned by a deeply unpleasant policy that has already had some success in re-badging all asylum seekers as 'illegal immigrants'.

    I don't think it will. Sunak has two problems, I reckon.

    The main one is that he can't back down now without looking like a fool. A sharper operator (Johnson, perhaps?) would have used the Supreme Court decision to make a lot of noise and bury the plan in a pile of reviews. Promise it in the next manifesto.

    The other one is that I fear for the sanity of the Cabinet, that a bunker mindset has set in. "We will pass this, even if we have to stay here all night" reeks of a teacher who has lost control of the situation.
    I like the last bit. The naïve teacher saying 'right, the whole class is staying behind until somebody confesses', only to have to back down when there is prolonged silence.
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,216
    eek said:

    MattW said:

    Slight overreaction from the BBC. The increase seems to be 0.1% .

    Homeowner pain as major banks hike mortgage rates
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68874847

    MattW said:

    Slight overreaction from the BBC. The increase seems to be 0.1% .

    Homeowner pain as major banks hike mortgage rates
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68874847

    0.1% to change the rate from 5,3% to 5.4%.

    Which is really only a 2% change in the actual rate but I note that the rate eek twin A has got in mid February is 0.35% less than the rate Santander wishes to charge today.
    The fall in interest rates shall be very slow...
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,773

    Stormy cutting a fine figure at court today. I gather the mushroom motif means something..


    The mushrooms are clearly photoshopped on. What's the significance?
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,745

    Leon said:

    Something more cheerful - that thread on drinks and food in their natural surroundings

    It’s true, a Philp’s Cornish pasty, fresh and warm and peppery from the bakery in Hayle, eaten on the sea wall, gazing at the waves, after a vigorous cliff top hike, is an absolute thing of beauty. Eaten at home for supper, hmm no. I mean, it’s OK. But you need that working man’s appetite, the salty sea air, the soft crust in your hand, the aaaahhhhh

    A peaty Islay malt in front of a roaring fire in a baronial hotel somewhere in Hebrides after a day in the sad and misty loveliness, yes indeed

    Maldon Oysters at the Maldon oyster shack on Mersea island, right on the River Blackwater where they have been gathered since Roman times, and celebrated

    “The only good thing to come out of Britain is oysters” - Pliny

    Asparagus from our garden. 15 food metres, 15 minutes from harvest to plate.
    Frogs legs in garlic next to a big froggy pond in the Dombes, which is essentially a big pondy region full of amphibians.

    I think you could give each foodstuff or drink a locality taste ratio, which measures the gap between the taste when consumed on the terroir, and the taste at home.

    Widest locality ratio probably something like Pastis, or indeed Cornish Pasty. Perhaps also currywurst in a German fairground. Narrowest locality ratio say a big fat USDA steak or a Bresse chicken.
  • Options
    sbjme19sbjme19 Posts: 137
    TimS said:

    It's a sign of his desperation, and his lack of imagination, that Sunak is hanging everything on this Rwanda nonsense. He genuinely seems to think that if flights go off, he's back in the game. I desperately hope he's wrong. I would be very sad if the British people could be so easily turned by a deeply unpleasant policy that has already had some success in re-badging all asylum seekers as 'illegal immigrants'.

    Trouble is he chops and changes what he wants to hang everything off each week, and little seems to stick

    - Rwanda: nobody really thinks it’ll make any difference
    - Tax cuts: come and gone, polls didn’t shift
    - Starmer the lefty lawyer defended terrorists: hasn’t worked
    - campaign against sicknote benefits scroungers: just makes him look like a Tory

    Not sure what else there is left.
    Angela Rayner? No, I don't think that'll help either.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,979

    Stormy cutting a fine figure at court today. I gather the mushroom motif means something..


    The mushrooms are clearly photoshopped on. What's the significance?
    She was a guest on a late night talk show and was asked to select a mushroom which most looked like Donald Trump's penis.

    You're welcome.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,637
    Let me repeat, Florida is THE LEAST SOUTHERN of Southern States.

    As for Virginia, most of Virginia outside of DC burbs is still culturally Southern. Whereas most of Floridan outside of the Panhandle and adjacent areas is NOT, and has not been for half a century.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,408

    Stormy cutting a fine figure at court today. I gather the mushroom motif means something..


    Those mushrooms aren’t actually on the dress, though, are they?
  • Options
    On topic, surely most churchgoers leave their mobile phones at home or switched off, but I agree the result will still likely be inflated a little.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,773
    legatus said:

    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    On topic for PB.

    Observation from an online Green Councillor friend in Oxford, to whom I have just been explaining the joys of Ashfield local politics.

    Oh my this sounds like an extremely eventful constituency!

    An additional interesting thing for us is that Conservatives, you know, the National party of govt still, haven’t stood this time in several wards (and didn’t stand against me).

    https://twitter.com/EmilyKerr36/status/1782089214147928248

    Are Conservative Councillor Candidate numbers holding up everywhere, the world wonders?

    The sort of question usually only AndyJS could answer.
    There are 2,655 seats being fought - the Conservatives have 95% candidate coverage, Labour 91%, the Lib Dems 68% and the Greens 62%. Reform are only standing 12% of possible candidates.
    Hence why the locals will be the start of the long decline of Reform as we head to the election. And much, though not all, of that will go back to Con.
    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    On topic for PB.

    Observation from an online Green Councillor friend in Oxford, to whom I have just been explaining the joys of Ashfield local politics.

    Oh my this sounds like an extremely eventful constituency!

    An additional interesting thing for us is that Conservatives, you know, the National party of govt still, haven’t stood this time in several wards (and didn’t stand against me).

    https://twitter.com/EmilyKerr36/status/1782089214147928248

    Are Conservative Councillor Candidate numbers holding up everywhere, the world wonders?

    The sort of question usually only AndyJS could answer.
    There are 2,655 seats being fought - the Conservatives have 95% candidate coverage, Labour 91%, the Lib Dems 68% and the Greens 62%. Reform are only standing 12% of possible candidates.
    Hence why the locals will be the start of the long decline of Reform as we head to the election. And much, though not all, of that will go back to Con.
    For what it is worth, polling evidence suggests that only circa 35% of Reform voters would switch to the Tories were a candidate not to be standing. Moreover over 15% would vote Labour - so the net benefit to the Tories might be quite modest.
    Also depends on whether Reform do actually stand candidates in 600+ seats.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,745
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Something more cheerful - that thread on drinks and food in their natural surroundings

    It’s true, a Philp’s Cornish pasty, fresh and warm and peppery from the bakery in Hayle, eaten on the sea wall, gazing at the waves, after a vigorous cliff top hike, is an absolute thing of beauty. Eaten at home for supper, hmm no. I mean, it’s OK. But you need that working man’s appetite, the salty sea air, the soft crust in your hand, the aaaahhhhh

    A peaty Islay malt in front of a roaring fire in a baronial hotel somewhere in Hebrides after a day in the sad and misty loveliness, yes indeed

    Maldon Oysters at the Maldon oyster shack on Mersea island, right on the River Blackwater where they have been gathered since Roman times, and celebrated

    “The only good thing to come out of Britain is oysters” - Pliny

    Asparagus from our garden. 15 food metres, 15 minutes from harvest to plate.
    Good one

    In the early summer of 2021 - still headfucked by Covid - i did my first post pandemic Gazette assignment. Eating food all along the East Anglian coast. Yes, it’s hard work, but someone etc

    The very first meal was an amazing lunch in Burnham on Crouch where I ate the last of the local asparagus with unctuous hollandaise in a deicious and very English garden

    Yes, English asparagus in England!

    Cold Czech pilsener in a cobbled Bohemian square in the August heat. Perfect

    Salad Nicoise on a blazing summer day in a Provençal town looking down on Nice, itself
    The coldest daytime temperature recorded in France today was…Nice. 4.4C during a hailstorm.
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,846
    HYUFD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    I’ve never been to church other than weddings, funerals or christenings but, as someone who is sad that Christianity is no longer going to be the dominant faith in England when my kids are grown up, I feel I should start.

    I won’t though, the same way I like the independent shops in our High St and still order stuff cheaper online. When they’re gone I’ll miss them & complaint that people never used them, as my houses value plummets

    At the way we are going you can work from home, order all your goods online, order your food and drink online, have an at home gym, watch films and dramas and plays and musicals and sports online, meet your friends online and even now join religious services online. So no wonder not just some churches but pubs and bars, cinemas, theatres, shops, gyms and public transport and non top league sports clubs are closing or finding it tougher to maintain their customer base.

    Soon those who wfh will barely need to leave the house if the online schools idea takes off. Doesn't do a great deal for community cohesion though and politically often leads to echo chambers in terms of self selection of who you meet and follow online and on social media
    You mistake community for those you live close too. It's not the same thing all my neighbours are twats that I wouldn't want to mix with
    It isn't just your neighbours, it is the town, village or city where you live. Most people you mix with in pubs, bars, restaurants, churches, shops, cinemas and theatres, football terraces and cricket club stands are not your immediate neighbours but as people do more and more online they mix less with them too
    Well as I wouldn't want to mix with the church types, the football types or the cricket club types either. I visit shops when I have no choice because I find the customers obnoxious and no interest in cinema.....theatre may be the only time I mix with them but even then only if they don't talk as I came to watch the play not listen to them witter on
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    Leon said:

    Something more cheerful - that thread on drinks and food in their natural surroundings

    It’s true, a Philp’s Cornish pasty, fresh and warm and peppery from the bakery in Hayle, eaten on the sea wall, gazing at the waves, after a vigorous cliff top hike, is an absolute thing of beauty. Eaten at home for supper, hmm no. I mean, it’s OK. But you need that working man’s appetite, the salty sea air, the soft crust in your hand, the aaaahhhhh

    A peaty Islay malt in front of a roaring fire in a baronial hotel somewhere in Hebrides after a day in the sad and misty loveliness, yes indeed

    Maldon Oysters at the Maldon oyster shack on Mersea island, right on the River Blackwater where they have been gathered since Roman times, and celebrated

    “The only good thing to come out of Britain is oysters” - Pliny

    Oh btw. Your wrong. And right.

    A day spent in a colder than usual Paris certainly its fair share of yuk including the gentleman lying in his own vomit outside GdN. Coming into town on the Metro no particular issues could have been the Central line if the Central line were roomier and less ghastly. A gang of African youths apologising profusely to the older woman they had inadvertently bumped into while chatting.

    Emerging at Argentine to make my way to my hotel I was met by nothing more or less than a bustling capital city with all that that entails, and then, closer to my hotel the magic arose. Higgledy Piggledy bars and cafes, spilling out onto the streets as they do, full of seemingly attractive people, moreso than you'd find in Dalston, and going to the most bog standard of bog standard brasseries for supper and it being fantastic, good burger, phenomenal chips and the patron brought over a liqueur to aid sleep. Then walking out into the mid-evening sunshine whereunder everything was given a further golden sheen.

    Lovely.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,517

    Stormy cutting a fine figure at court today. I gather the mushroom motif means something..


    The mushrooms have been applied later. Notice how they do not follow the silky curves of the good lady's surplice inspired frock.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,773
    kle4 said:

    Stormy cutting a fine figure at court today. I gather the mushroom motif means something..


    The mushrooms are clearly photoshopped on. What's the significance?
    She was a guest on a late night talk show and was asked to select a mushroom which most looked like Donald Trump's penis.

    You're welcome.
    He should definitely see someone about those spots.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,563
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    I’ve never been to church other than weddings, funerals or christenings but, as someone who is sad that Christianity is no longer going to be the dominant faith in England when my kids are grown up, I feel I should start.

    I won’t though, the same way I like the independent shops in our High St and still order stuff cheaper online. When they’re gone I’ll miss them & complaint that people never used them, as my houses value plummets

    At the way we are going you can work from home, order all your goods online, order your food and drink online, have an at home gym, watch films and dramas and plays and musicals and sports online, meet your friends online and even now join religious services online. So no wonder not just some churches but pubs and bars, cinemas, theatres, shops, gyms and public transport and non top league sports clubs are closing or finding it tougher to maintain their customer base.

    Soon those who wfh will barely need to leave the house if the online schools idea takes off. Doesn't do a great deal for community cohesion though and politically often leads to echo chambers in terms of self selection of who you meet and follow online and on social media
    Don’t be so negative.

    People will still interact.

    After a spat over the internet, they will 3D print the components for a fully automatic coil gun and shoot up the neighbourhood.

    Or they will use the gene sequencing equipment they bought on eBay to cook up some airborne smallpox.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,979

    legatus said:

    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    On topic for PB.

    Observation from an online Green Councillor friend in Oxford, to whom I have just been explaining the joys of Ashfield local politics.

    Oh my this sounds like an extremely eventful constituency!

    An additional interesting thing for us is that Conservatives, you know, the National party of govt still, haven’t stood this time in several wards (and didn’t stand against me).

    https://twitter.com/EmilyKerr36/status/1782089214147928248

    Are Conservative Councillor Candidate numbers holding up everywhere, the world wonders?

    The sort of question usually only AndyJS could answer.
    There are 2,655 seats being fought - the Conservatives have 95% candidate coverage, Labour 91%, the Lib Dems 68% and the Greens 62%. Reform are only standing 12% of possible candidates.
    Hence why the locals will be the start of the long decline of Reform as we head to the election. And much, though not all, of that will go back to Con.
    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    On topic for PB.

    Observation from an online Green Councillor friend in Oxford, to whom I have just been explaining the joys of Ashfield local politics.

    Oh my this sounds like an extremely eventful constituency!

    An additional interesting thing for us is that Conservatives, you know, the National party of govt still, haven’t stood this time in several wards (and didn’t stand against me).

    https://twitter.com/EmilyKerr36/status/1782089214147928248

    Are Conservative Councillor Candidate numbers holding up everywhere, the world wonders?

    The sort of question usually only AndyJS could answer.
    There are 2,655 seats being fought - the Conservatives have 95% candidate coverage, Labour 91%, the Lib Dems 68% and the Greens 62%. Reform are only standing 12% of possible candidates.
    Hence why the locals will be the start of the long decline of Reform as we head to the election. And much, though not all, of that will go back to Con.
    For what it is worth, polling evidence suggests that only circa 35% of Reform voters would switch to the Tories were a candidate not to be standing. Moreover over 15% would vote Labour - so the net benefit to the Tories might be quite modest.
    Also depends on whether Reform do actually stand candidates in 600+ seats.
    UKIP managed 624 at their peak, Brexit bothered to stand in less than 300 last time.

    I think they could get to 500+ if they want, it's probably easier to find someone to stand for Parliament than NowhereShire Borough Council.

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    isamisam Posts: 40,987
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    I’ve never been to church other than weddings, funerals or christenings but, as someone who is sad that Christianity is no longer going to be the dominant faith in England when my kids are grown up, I feel I should start.

    I won’t though, the same way I like the independent shops in our High St and still order stuff cheaper online. When they’re gone I’ll miss them & complaint that people never used them, as my houses value plummets

    https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/why-are-all-the-pubs-closing-ask-people-who-never-go-to-the-pub-200903051623
    Very true.

    I think it was Peter Hitchens who said we are basking in the afterglow of the old Christian England, but by doing nothing to preserve it we are destroying it.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,637
    viewcode said:

    I am shocked!

    Post Office scandal: Investigation that cleared CEO ‘ignored key witnesses’

    Nick Read was cleared of misconduct after whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director


    An investigation into the Post Office chief executive did not interview the complainant’s key witnesses and kept her in the dark, MPs have been told.

    Last week Nick Read, who has run the company since 2019, was exonerated of a “myriad charge sheet” set out in a whistleblowing complaint by Jane Davies, the company’s former HR director.

    The existence of the investigation into Read was made public earlier in February by the organisation’s former chairman, Henry Staunton, who was sacked by Kemi Badenoch, the business secretary, in January.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/post-office-scandal-investigation-witnesses-pn5h5vmx0

    Do NOT be shocked WHEN next lawyers popping up in court(s) representing Donald Trump, are sporting Brit accents.

    OR when Kemi Badenoch appears as warm-up act for Donald Trump at some MAGA-maniac jamboree.
    I actually think that Donald Trump might do a bit better with a UK firm of solicitors. He does seem to select some remarkably incompetent lawyers. British ones would be amoral and start with the handicap of their accents and accidentally calling the judge 'M'Ludd', but they couldn't be much worse.

    Reminds me of a Kavanagh QC episode where he went to Florida.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2UGHwqOssQU
    John Thaw, greatest television actor of his day. But the video is blocked "in your country". Rumpole went to the great state of Florida as well. Filming subsidies?
    Most of the Brits I met in Britain who'd been to America had been to Florida. Especially true of working-class folks.

    So setting an American episode of a Brit TV series in Florida makes sense from Brit-audience perspective.
    I would like to proudly state that I have been to America but never been to Florida.
    Nothing to be proud of, seeing as how Florida is a great state and VERY diverse state.

    Check it out some time! Personally fond of St Augustine and the Redneck Riviera.
    Fair point - I will amend my ways.

    I actually have a hankering for going to Key West and doing some offshore sport-fishing. Blame Hemingway.
    I want to stand by a bay, say something dramatic, adjust my sunglasses and hear "Won't get fooled again". Blame "CSI Miami" :)
    "CSI Miami" being lame imitation of "Miami Vice".
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,773
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Something more cheerful - that thread on drinks and food in their natural surroundings

    It’s true, a Philp’s Cornish pasty, fresh and warm and peppery from the bakery in Hayle, eaten on the sea wall, gazing at the waves, after a vigorous cliff top hike, is an absolute thing of beauty. Eaten at home for supper, hmm no. I mean, it’s OK. But you need that working man’s appetite, the salty sea air, the soft crust in your hand, the aaaahhhhh

    A peaty Islay malt in front of a roaring fire in a baronial hotel somewhere in Hebrides after a day in the sad and misty loveliness, yes indeed

    Maldon Oysters at the Maldon oyster shack on Mersea island, right on the River Blackwater where they have been gathered since Roman times, and celebrated

    “The only good thing to come out of Britain is oysters” - Pliny

    Asparagus from our garden. 15 food metres, 15 minutes from harvest to plate.
    Frogs legs in garlic next to a big froggy pond in the Dombes, which is essentially a big pondy region full of amphibians.

    I think you could give each foodstuff or drink a locality taste ratio, which measures the gap between the taste when consumed on the terroir, and the taste at home.

    Widest locality ratio probably something like Pastis, or indeed Cornish Pasty. Perhaps also currywurst in a German fairground. Narrowest locality ratio say a big fat USDA steak or a Bresse chicken.
    It's more complicated than that: cheese travels well but the making of cheese doesn't. And wine of course.
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