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Street’s ahead – politicalbetting.com

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    TimSTimS Posts: 9,730

    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I'm trying really hard not to mention the weather, but sweet fucking Jesus

    It is late April and it is 11C and the cold cold rain is SHEETING DOWN. My god

    And this is after the wettest 18 months in our history. WTF is going on?

    Ne'er cast a clout till May be out.
    An often misunderstood phrase

    The May in this saying is the May tree, the hawthorn. Cf "the bloom is on the blackthorn but not yet on the May"

    So what it is saying is you can't expect reliably warm weather until the hawthorn has blossomed, usually early-mid May

    It doesn't mention 18 months of fucking freezing monsoons
    New normal.

    You could ask Claude to pen new traditional doggerel more appropriate to our climate.
    "The rain is on the pavement, and now it's on the pavement again"

    "Ne'er cast a brolly. Ever."

    "The rain is in the house and now it's drowned the mouse"

    "Who needs a fucking swimming pool, just take a walk"
    When sky is grey, the dreary weather's here to stay
    When sky is blue, a sleety shower's just passed through
    When sky is white, the weather's probably staying shite
    When sky is red, Russia just nuked us and everyone's dead
    Red sky at night, shepherds have banked up their fires because it’s nearly May and it’s still fucking freezing.
    People might be surprised to learn that this month up to the 17th is running at 2.9C warmer than average.
    The combination of damp (wet air conducts heat far better than does dry air), and wind chill make it feel much colder.

    (which is why you have a "feels like" page on your weather app)
    What TimS didn't tell you is that the weather at the beginning of April was at near record highs for the day in the Central England Temperature record, but the last few days have fallen below the 1961-1990 average, so there's been a bit of a swing in the weather.
    Well I did tell him that, but not in the original post. It's funny how short term our weather memory is.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,792

    Labour caught mansplaining:

    I’d like to inform the Labour Party that women can have fully-fledged thoughts and views about policy too. Our brains aren’t just filled with jealous feelings about our partners. 🙄



    https://x.com/soniasodha/status/1781322900730970367

    For heavens' sake, it's just a popular meme format.
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,488
    TimS said:

    Labour caught mansplaining:

    I’d like to inform the Labour Party that women can have fully-fledged thoughts and views about policy too. Our brains aren’t just filled with jealous feelings about our partners. 🙄



    https://x.com/soniasodha/status/1781322900730970367

    We had a similar situation at work a few years ago where someone posted the jealous girlfriend meme about something boringly work related on a corporate communication, and was forced into an apology for offence caused.

    Labour social media team have been reading this morning's PB and concluded the Speccie approach to political commentary is the way to go.
    Man: "I've got a great idea - the kids will go wild for it and Labour will win big"
    Woman: "Oh God, he's thinking up memes again"
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,792

    Labour caught mansplaining:

    I’d like to inform the Labour Party that women can have fully-fledged thoughts and views about policy too. Our brains aren’t just filled with jealous feelings about our partners. 🙄



    https://x.com/soniasodha/status/1781322900730970367

    Well not exactly, given the whole point of the meme is that it's subverting current conventional expectations.

    Though as I pointed out to whomever suggested the lady has a touch of Yvette Cooper about her, the thought graphics would then work better the other way round.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,792

    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I'm trying really hard not to mention the weather, but sweet fucking Jesus

    It is late April and it is 11C and the cold cold rain is SHEETING DOWN. My god

    And this is after the wettest 18 months in our history. WTF is going on?

    Ne'er cast a clout till May be out.
    An often misunderstood phrase

    The May in this saying is the May tree, the hawthorn. Cf "the bloom is on the blackthorn but not yet on the May"

    So what it is saying is you can't expect reliably warm weather until the hawthorn has blossomed, usually early-mid May

    It doesn't mention 18 months of fucking freezing monsoons
    New normal.

    You could ask Claude to pen new traditional doggerel more appropriate to our climate.
    "The rain is on the pavement, and now it's on the pavement again"

    "Ne'er cast a brolly. Ever."

    "The rain is in the house and now it's drowned the mouse"

    "Who needs a fucking swimming pool, just take a walk"
    When sky is grey, the dreary weather's here to stay
    When sky is blue, a sleety shower's just passed through
    When sky is white, the weather's probably staying shite
    When sky is red, Russia just nuked us and everyone's dead
    Red sky at night, shepherds have banked up their fires because it’s nearly May and it’s still fucking freezing.
    People might be surprised to learn that this month up to the 17th is running at 2.9C warmer than average.
    The combination of damp (wet air conducts heat far better than does dry air), and wind chill make it feel much colder.

    (which is why you have a "feels like" page on your weather app)
    What TimS didn't tell you is that the weather at the beginning of April was at near record highs for the day in the Central England Temperature record, but the last few days have fallen below the 1961-1990 average, so there's been a bit of a swing in the weather.
    Often intraday, where I live.

    But my point about wind/damp chill remains valid.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563

    NEW THREAD

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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047
    Selebian said:

    kinabalu said:

    Selebian said:

    kinabalu said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Haven't seen the whole of the Speccie piece but taken as is it is an example (we were discussing this yesterday) of why I don't take the magazine any more.

    That said no one can dispute the quality of the writing - v funny indeed. Which makes it all the more irritating.

    And thinking about it so it's offensive. So what. Are people calling for it to be cancelled? I'm sure Owen Jones will. That would be very bad if we're not allowed to be offensive. Ask Dave Chapelle.

    As it objectifies women we are at the intersection of offence and abuse but the bigger the outcry the more minded I am too defend it even though it's the hated Speccie.

    But on the third hand I am an old(er) white bloke so perhaps my time as leader of the western world is over.
    No, this is Owen's post on the subject:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1780951361968021560?t=JN5dzqrgMEiwZDRpMzgmhw&s=19

    I do hope the publicity benefits Ypi and boosts sales of her book and increases listenership of her podcast. Her family experience of persecution under Hoxha and the growing pains of the new Albania is a very interesting perspective, she seems to be on the leading edge of new left wing thought.
    "repulsive and a disgrace" sounds to me like a step on the way to getting him sacked.

    Listen you and I are both men d'un age certain. Are we saying that no one is allowed to comment on a person's looks any more.
    Context is everything.
    Well I haven't seen the entire article as it is paywalled. Neither have you, I suspect.
    Entire article:
    https://archive.ph/iFzFe
    Good for middle aged loaded old lads mag. Unsuitable for a politics, culture and current affairs magazine. Its not exactly rocket science.
    The Spectator has ALWAYS been like this. It mixes the high and the low, the sordid and the cerebral, the arts and the heart. And it seeks to surprise as all good magazines should


    I very much doubt you subscribe, or ever will, and as it’s paywalled that means you never read it, so why on earth should they care what you think?
    And I don't care if they care or not, its very much up to them. Just commenting on here as the topic du jour.
    My point is you are acting as if this is some sordid new departure for the Spectator. It really isn’t. I’m old enough to remember when they ran a piece about a guy “wanking himself into hospital” which became mildly celebrated and got quoted in the US Congress and cited in famous books of psychology. So none of this is new
    I doubt it shall survive contact with the generation or two below you, it shall have to choose one or the other.
    You could be right. It’s not looking good. Here’s their 200 years of sales in a graph



    Yes its popular with the posher end of the lads mag readership of the 90s. How did those fare with Gen Z?
    I think it's wrong to attribute this to boomers. It's the old forgotten Gen X again, ignored in the Boomer-Millennial culture wars. Gen X, people from about 45 to 60 now.

    My impression is this is the most hedonistic, don't give a shit of all the generations. The late 90s and early noughties when GenX were young were the peak of lad mags but also the celebration of binge drinking and drug taking, popular culture that didn't take itself too seriously, and apolitical comedy from The Office to the Fast Show to Reeves and Mortimer. And the nadir (in the sense of they didn't exist) of the culture wars. Toxic in many ways in both a literal and figurative sense, but also good fun.

    I miss all that. I know parts of it were bad and not to be repeated, but I'm a creature of that era and it's hard not to be nostalgic for it.
    They're enjoyable to discuss but tbh I'm not sure how meaningful these "Gens" are. Most of how the world changes happens gradually and continuously rather than by "decade" or by "generation".
    Dunno, my brother is just in tail end of gen X (I'm early millennial) and we're chalk and cheese. I'm measured, sensible, avocado on toast kind of guy (until I discovered the environmental impact of avocado and decided to buy a house instead). He's a walking celebration of binge drinking and drug taking, popular culture that didn't take itself too seriously etc. At least, he's a Chartered Accountant, so I assume it follows that all that is true? :wink:
    Binge drinking and Chartered Accountancy do go together, yes. I can totally vouch for that.

    1960 so I'm a babyboomer, I think? Yet I'm nothing like Bill Clinton. So I don't know. I'm sceptical of most of this. Same as I am of national characteristics - a "brave" people, a "lazy" people, a "friendly" people, all of that sort of thing. It's mainly about oiling a certain sort of conversation.
    The people I want to know about are the Silent Generation. But they ain't talking :disappointed:

    (Actually, from Wikipedia, the Silents are births up to 1945, so we have a few here - Big G, OKC and a few others over 80, I believe? And my dad, but he is a silent type of Silent.)
    Of the dozen or so fellow U3a (etc) people with whom I regularly discuss politics and current affairs, two are certainly Conservative, ‘anti-woke’ etc. The rest vary from Centre to Left.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563

    Labour caught mansplaining:

    I’d like to inform the Labour Party that women can have fully-fledged thoughts and views about policy too. Our brains aren’t just filled with jealous feelings about our partners. 🙄



    https://x.com/soniasodha/status/1781322900730970367

    For heavens' sake, it's just a popular meme format.
    Yup, next they'll be telling us they've never heard about/seen the distracted boyfriend meme.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,416
    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I'm trying really hard not to mention the weather, but sweet fucking Jesus

    It is late April and it is 11C and the cold cold rain is SHEETING DOWN. My god

    And this is after the wettest 18 months in our history. WTF is going on?

    Ne'er cast a clout till May be out.
    An often misunderstood phrase

    The May in this saying is the May tree, the hawthorn. Cf "the bloom is on the blackthorn but not yet on the May"

    So what it is saying is you can't expect reliably warm weather until the hawthorn has blossomed, usually early-mid May

    It doesn't mention 18 months of fucking freezing monsoons
    New normal.

    You could ask Claude to pen new traditional doggerel more appropriate to our climate.
    "The rain is on the pavement, and now it's on the pavement again"

    "Ne'er cast a brolly. Ever."

    "The rain is in the house and now it's drowned the mouse"

    "Who needs a fucking swimming pool, just take a walk"
    When sky is grey, the dreary weather's here to stay
    When sky is blue, a sleety shower's just passed through
    When sky is white, the weather's probably staying shite
    When sky is red, Russia just nuked us and everyone's dead
    Red sky at night, shepherds have banked up their fires because it’s nearly May and it’s still fucking freezing.
    People might be surprised to learn that this month up to the 17th is running at 2.9C warmer than average.
    The combination of damp (wet air conducts heat far better than does dry air), and wind chill make it feel much colder.

    (which is why you have a "feels like" page on your weather app)
    What TimS didn't tell you is that the weather at the beginning of April was at near record highs for the day in the Central England Temperature record, but the last few days have fallen below the 1961-1990 average, so there's been a bit of a swing in the weather.
    Well I did tell him that, but not in the original post. It's funny how short term our weather memory is.
    Yeah, I could have checked the whole thread for your reply before posting my own, but I had the chance to be right about something and so dove straight in.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,687
    Sean_F said:

    TimS said:

    Some unusual council byelection results recently. Last night's from Ely is a demonstration of what I think is a growing phenomenon:

    Ely West (East Cambridgeshire) council by-election result:

    LDEM: 47.9% (+10.6)
    CON: 32.3% (+10.3)
    LAB: 19.8% (-2.7)

    No Grn (-10.6) and Ind (-7.5) as prev.

    Valid votes cast: 2,351

    Liberal Democrat HOLD.

    Tories up 10.3%. Now they often gain votes when Independents don't stand, because independents are typically fishing from the same demographic and ideological pool as conservatives. But that wasn't enough this time. They must have taken significant votes reallocated from former Greens too.

    Greens are fast becoming a vote repository at local level for small-c conservative, conservation-minded, NIMBY-inclined older voters. It looks like the previous Green vote in Ely West was exactly this.

    Real votes are not matching the vast poll leads
    Reform just don't feature in local elections.
    There are Independents who to me seem to be Reform-without-the-Logo who do, though.

    I'm thinking, for example, of Radcliffe First - which has 8 out of 51 Councillors on Bury Council.

    There are others who aren't eg I assess Ashfield Independents as LibDems without the Logo + Brexit + now added dodginess.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787

    Labour caught mansplaining:

    I’d like to inform the Labour Party that women can have fully-fledged thoughts and views about policy too. Our brains aren’t just filled with jealous feelings about our partners. 🙄



    https://x.com/soniasodha/status/1781322900730970367

    For heavens' sake, it's just a popular meme format.
    Take it up with the leader writer of the Observer…..
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,687
    MattW said:

    Sean_F said:

    TimS said:

    Some unusual council byelection results recently. Last night's from Ely is a demonstration of what I think is a growing phenomenon:

    Ely West (East Cambridgeshire) council by-election result:

    LDEM: 47.9% (+10.6)
    CON: 32.3% (+10.3)
    LAB: 19.8% (-2.7)

    No Grn (-10.6) and Ind (-7.5) as prev.

    Valid votes cast: 2,351

    Liberal Democrat HOLD.

    Tories up 10.3%. Now they often gain votes when Independents don't stand, because independents are typically fishing from the same demographic and ideological pool as conservatives. But that wasn't enough this time. They must have taken significant votes reallocated from former Greens too.

    Greens are fast becoming a vote repository at local level for small-c conservative, conservation-minded, NIMBY-inclined older voters. It looks like the previous Green vote in Ely West was exactly this.

    Real votes are not matching the vast poll leads
    Reform just don't feature in local elections.
    There are Independents who to me seem to be Reform-without-the-Logo who do, though.

    I'm thinking, for example, of Radcliffe First - which has 8 out of 51 Councillors on Bury Council.

    There are others who aren't eg I assess Ashfield Independents as LibDems without the Logo + Brexit + now added dodginess.
    PS Do we have any idea of how many places there are where groups of Independents will affect the control of the Council? It may be material at Notts CC for example, as the makeup is currently:

    Conservatives (35)
    Labour (15)
    Ashfield Ind. (10)
    Independent (6)

    My favourite ever Independents have to be the Boston Bypass Independents who won 25 seats from 32 in Boston in 2007, because they .. er .. wanted a bypass built.

    (As of 2024 Boston does not have a new bypass aiui.)
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    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,846
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    @Casino_Royale mate this book is right up your street you and the author/protagonist have a lot in common you should get yourself a copy off Amazon pronto.

    "And she saw a long Roman candle going up over the trees, up, up, and, in the tense hush, they were all breathless with excitement as it went higher and higher and she had to lean back more and more to look up after it, high, high, almost out of sight, and her face was suffused with a divine, an entrancing blush from straining back and he could see her other things too, nainsook knickers, the fabric that caresses the skin, better than those other pettiwidth, the green, four and eleven, on account of being white and she let him and she saw that he saw and then it went so high it went out of sight a moment and she was trembling in every limb from being bent so far back he had a full view high up above her knee no-one ever not even on the swing or wading and she wasn't ashamed and he wasn't either to look in that immodest way like that because he couldn't resist the sight of the wondrous revealment half offered like those skirtdancers behaving so immodest before gentlemen looking and he kept on looking, looking. She would fain have cried to him chokingly, held out her snowy slender arms to him to come, to feel his lips laid on her white brow the cry of a young girl's love, a little strangled cry, wrung from her, that cry that has rung through the ages. And then a rocket sprang and bang shot blind and O! then the Roman candle burst and it was like a sigh of O! and everyone cried O!O! in raptures and it gushed out of it a stream of rain gold hair threads and they shed and ah! they were all greeny dewy stars falling with golden, O so lively! O so soft, sweet, soft!"

    WTF is that?
    Dunno, but it sounds completely Ulyssless.
    Ah good news. So I've read it now then. A masterpiece, no question.
    How could you not recognise the absolutely unmistakeable prose style - and one of the most famous passages
    You do realise it is only authors that think they are relevant here most of us couldn't give a shit about you or your supposed relevance. This is why people are more likely to read harry potter than some supposed shitstain author like james joyce....we dont think you are important culturally, socially and we know you have little understanding of anything so we ignore your ranting in the spectator....you are a non entity
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    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,846

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Foxy said:

    nico679 said:

    Sunak really is useless . And by allowing non GPS to issue sick notes we know how this ends . Targets in place of proper fact based decisions.

    Absolutely.

    The really depressing thing will likely be Starmer's response.
    I fear you’re right . And after last nights dreadful response to that very generous EU offer re 18 to 30 year olds I’m fast losing any enthusiasm for Labour .

    Thankfully I won’t have to think hard here in Eastbourne about how to vote at the GE . The Lib Dems should take this seat and can rely on my vote .
    I’m amazed there isn’t more anger or at least fuss about Labour’s rebuff to the EU
    Martin Kettle had a good piece on this the other day:

    At present, Labour is keen to lock a future government’s relations with Europe in the pre-election long-stay car park. Starmer wants the forthcoming contest to be about Conservative economic failure, not about Brexit. Even Labour’s most passionate pro-Europeans have accepted that getting elected must come first. The party’s reluctance to air the European question too loudly before that is understandable. But this does not mean the question is going to go away in government...

    But Britain’s relationship with Europe cannot avoid being a key dynamic of any long-term national renewal project for Britain of the kind that Starmer promised to the Labour conference last year. Repair with Europe cannot be dodged indefinitely, whether in the context of domestic politics, international security or the economy.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/apr/18/keir-starmer-europe-economy-labour-eu

    Ahead of the election it's understandable that Labour don't want to let the Tories and Reform - and their media overlords - to start wittering on about how Brexit is in peril. They can't be allowed to get the old band back together.

    I did read somewhere else that 80% of the Labour membership want to rejoin. If they get a stonking majority that 80% won't be quiet. Especially if Leavers die off in ever greater numbers and are replaced by pro-EU people under 60 and the electoral prize of full-throated pro-EUism becomes too big to ignore.

    The Tories, the Leavers, want to lock Brexit in. They want Brexit to be permanent. And perhaps they will succeed. Kettle concedes that might well be the case. But where I think Kettle is right is that reality will push us back closer to the EU. The Leavers got high on their own supply and gave us an immensely damaging, rupturing, Brexit - a version of Brexit that if Cameron had had the sense to be properly defined ahead of the referendum would never have won.

    Business hates Brexit, everyone under 60 pretty much hates Brexit. We will become much closer to Europe and we will achieve BRINO. And as livid as I still am for what Brexit, and the liars who delivered it, have robbed me of, a return of sanity and closer relations and, hopefully, a return of at least some of the privileges my EU citizenship entitled me to, will help. A bit.

    I'm 46 and I knew several people - normal people, not upper-middle class people - who benefitted from Erasmus. An ex-girlfriend of mine spent a year in Aix-en-Provece and Valencia as part of her study. Now, obviously, the Leavers want these uppity working class kids to properly know their station in life and become plumbers or charwomen. But young people won't settle for not having what their parents had. And if young people get freedom of movement, well then their parents and people of my age who had it, will want it returned.
    I'm in my 50s, grammar school boy, full grant at uni. My dad was a farm labourer turned small businessman who left school at 15 with no qualifications. I benefited enormously from Erasmus. Spent a year studying physics in Germany, learned German and met my future wife there. It was the first time I travelled abroad and perhaps the most formative experience of my life.
    Yes it benefitted you.

    However when we are paying in a lot which falls on every tax payer then you have to ask the question how many is it benefitting that the rest are paying for.

    Now from figures I have seen we had about 300,000 went to work in the eu. When 65 million are being charged for their privelege then sorry doesnt stack up that we should all pay to benefit 0.4 percent of the population
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