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Voter suppression could work for the Tories – politicalbetting.com
Voter suppression could work for the Tories – politicalbetting.com
Almost two million of those unaware of the new requirements for photo ID at elections are in marginal and ultra-marginal constituencies.This could be decisive for top Tories like Hunt, Gove and even the Prime Minister, who are within 5% of losing their seat. 2/ pic.twitter.com/mVQgOYhbLD
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https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/solar-panel-record-quantum-renewable-energy-b2526484.html
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Around 44 million people are estimated to be eligible to vote at this year’s May elections in England and Wales. Yet as many as seven million people are either incorrectly registered or missing from the register entirely.
This is more than the combined adult population of Scotland and Wales, and would be equivalent in number to more than 100 UK Parliament constituencies.
https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/media-centre/millions-missing-voters-urged-register-deadline
When I said I thought that one day we will have solar powered cars someone on here dismissed it as scientifically impossible. Which is what they said about landing on the moon and just about every great scientific breakthrough.
https://youtu.be/_r1VJg8tMWo?t=585
IMO the Telegraph are still being overpolite wrt Trump; they are not yet framing him as a Mugabe or Noriega type bullshitting criminal, which is what he is, and what we will have to deal with should he become President.
And good morning one and all; cloudy but it looks quite promising here this morning.
Every great scientific advance has always been presaged by the words ‘it can’t be done’
It will be. Perhaps not in your lifetimes. But it will be.
https://beingoutsidecricket.com/2024/02/20/is-the-hundred-a-success/
Is it just me, or is the BBC making OJ Simpson's death the top story overdoing it?
https://cleantechnica.com/2024/04/11/a-new-dawn-for-solar-cells-190-quantum-efficiency-is-possible/
It's like the AMAZING NEW BATTERY TECH!!!!!! stories we see every so often. There's a world away from a theoretical material to a lab-made material to a product to a productionised product.
But yes, potentially interesting.
"In summary, the Labour Party and Labour Government's view is as per the ODPMs submission and the following:
1. There should be a statutory presumption that all local elections be run as all-postal ballots unless there are compelling reasons why an all-postal ballot would be inappropriate or disadvantageous for a group or groups of electors. The final decision should rest with the Returning Officer following consultation with party group leaders and independent members represented on the Council. If polling stations are to be used, the Returning Officer should publish a statement of reasons for that decision at the time of notice of poll."
What is their current policy on Postal votes?
High-profile individuals including MPs said to be caught up in leak
https://www.theregister.com/2024/04/11/icabbi_database_exposure/
It's just a shame that the victims get forgotten in it all.
Also, as turnout in local elections is maybe half the turnout in general elections, there's probably a relatively small proportion of those who are unregistered who also bother to vote in local elections.
Starmer is doing everything he can to stop me, and I cannot stand Streeting. I may well vote Green.
The anger is confected by the left because they believe that they benefit from the current set up.
And in any case, does it make a huge difference whether the solar panels powering a car are on the car itself or the roof back home? With a battery in the house it is pretty easy to see solar panels being used to charge a home battery that then charges a car battery - and you already have a solar-powered car. Today.
JRM admitted it was to bugger up Labour (see the link above) and if you were worried about election integrity you should focus on postal votes.
We all benefit from not restricting the franchise for reasons that have no basis in reality and that were concocted entirely for party political purposes.
The key measure for solar panels is how cheap they are, and the company set up in Germany a couple of years back to produce the more efficient perovskite panels had pretty well been shut down by Chinese competition.
That's unlikely to change.
And '190%' doesn't mean you get more energy out than you put in - which is indeed impossible - so Heathener's prediction is rubbish.
We do have solar powered cars already. There's an annual challenge to see who can build the one that performs best.
But if 100% efficiency were possible, they're always going to be pretty useless.
Firstly, the poll was conducted in March, before people got polling cards that prominently display the ID requirement, before people get campaign leaflets which will undoubtedly also feature it, and before the various news stories that will mention it closer to election day. Clearly, plenty of people don't pay attention to any of it but it will inevitably reduce numbers who aren't aware.
Secondly, the poll seems to ignore the fact it's all pretty academic for postal voters. Quite a few of those who are unaware of the ID requirement don't need to be aware of it so the number of people potentially affected is lower than Best for Britain say.
Thirdly, quite a lot of people have the necessary ID in their wallet/purse (driving licence, over 60s bus pass, or proof of age) so, even if they are surprised when they get to the polling station to be asked for ID, it isn't actually a problem. Others have it at home and, annoying as it will be, will in fact go and get it.
Finally, the assumption that it will help the Tories to the extent some people are disenfranchised seems dubious. The Rees-Mogg quote indicates it's at least possible that it will hurt them. One aspect is that Tory voters are rather unenthusiastic this time, so those who are turned away at the polling station are probably more likely to go home and get ID if they are non-Tory, while Conservatives might well go home and close the door.
None of this is to say voter ID is a good thing - it's unnecessary, was at least intended as a partisan measure (as Rees-Mogg admits), and some people will be disenfranchised unfairly. But, in terms of impact in betting terms, the likelihood is it will be immaterial.
Postal voting however is regularly abused and in large numbers where fictitious voters are registered, or ballot papers are interfered with, or voters are intimidated. There have been umpteen cases.
Is there a real practical issue between a Lab majority of 200 and one of 250?
If nothing else, addressing in-person fraud is rather easier to do.
Perhaps not the best example to choose. Have you thought of citing Zimbabwe or Russia?
Was this not period Mandelbrot?
BUT in Germany I have never been asked for ID, nor seen anyone else asked for ID, when voting in person. You just bring the polling card that is posted to you, nobody bothers with ID.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68790429
Would you trust the Foreign Office on this? (see Falklands 1978)
It is not just the Tories trying to straddle different voting blocks. Personally I am glad to see Labour standing up for working class communities and wanting to make their lives better and not just taking them for granted and if it means alienating younger people with their "student politics" approach to things, like those melts who attacked the MOD this week with paint, so be it.
"The decision by Starmer, the Labour leader, to tack to the right on issues such as the economy, immigration and the environment has helped win over older white voters who backed Brexit at the referendum.
But those decisions have also upset many traditional Labour voters in urban areas in particular. Among those voters’ chief concerns is the party’s decision to abandon its commitment to spend £28bn a year on green projects and Starmer’s defence of Israel’s military actions in Gaza."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/apr/11/labour-may-fail-to-grab-target-seats-as-young-voters-turn-away-over-gaza-and-climate
Generally 3rd terms are not a success, and further one's are worse. This government is on its 4th.
You *can* build a weird kind of 4 wheel bicycle that can make slow progress in the Australian desert at noon.
Improving the efficiency of solar cells is perfectly possible, but won’t be enough to make solar powered cars work.
Cold fusion doesn’t work because the energy required to push atoms together is substantial.
Regular fusion is progressing slowly, because of the difficulty of modelling ultra high intensity magnetic fields. And fusion reactions. Which means you have to build a succession of giant machines and feel your way to the result. That being said, it is fairly likely that ITER will get more energy out than goes in.
First Light is one of dozens of attempts to do fusion differently. A number of them can neither be proved or disproved as to being viable, because of the modelling problem.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/apr/12/carers-allowance-benefit-error-30p-a-week-dwp
The first actual pilot plant would take rather more time, but they've already started engineering development. If they can demonstrate sufficient energy gain from their process (quite a big if), then an operational plant before the end of the 2030s is possible.
But it's certainly worth the investment to find out: hundreds of millions, rather than billions.
A lot more, of course, if they actually get to building power plants.
Can this be true? Are there significant numbers of seats (eg more than 5) where another party (and if so which) can win instead?
Even if their approach proves impractical, M4 will still be a world class high energy research facility.
Ukraine has no nuclear weapons, Russia probably has some that still work, but this has been an entirely conventional war.
Start with the assumption that benefit claimants, like subpostmasters, are out to deliberately defraud "us", and everything follows.
If Labour's national lead collapsed to say 5%, that would change and nearly all the activists would rush off to the super-marginals. But at present it's not happening, and Labour is fighting hard in traditionally weak seats. A lot of those had artificially depressed Labour votes because activists went elsewhere and the LibDems mopped up the tactical vote. I'd therefore expect to see unexpected Labour gains in seats we've not won recently, and below-average swings in seats (e.g. in inner London) where we've got a traditional majority already.
Can anyone point me at an inflation indicator from July 2023 to now?
The circs are that a new tenant and myself agreed a modestly below market rent which would then increase with CPI, and I need a part year CPI number to bring me back into line with my normal annual review date - although that would usually be April so I am a little late.
One alternative method would be to take a proportion of the Govt's annual benefit review month, which was Sept 2023. That is my normal process, but that was peak inflation so may be a little higher than I am are comfortable to use with a T who did not get the corresponding smaller-than-inflation-increase benefit when inflation was going up; normally they balance out.
The reality is it is either labour or a coalition. I suspect enough people will vote labour and the seats they seem to be falling back in are safe.
I did say here, when the Gaza thing kicked off, the muslim vote could end up costing labour in some seats. This was, of course, derided by some here however Labour people are also now waking up to it.
Difficult for labour. After purging the party of anti semitism what do they do. Take a fair stance on Gaza, calling out both Hamas for its evil crimes and Israel for its conduct of the war and its murder of civilians or do they adopt the Blair era policy of just giving Israel unwavering support.
Especially important as public opinion keeps moving in response to what they see.
"The Duke and Duchess of Sussex are to be the executive producers of two new nonfiction Netflix series focusing on lifestyle and polo.
One show will explore “the joys of cooking, gardening, entertaining and friendship”, while the other will give “unprecedented access to the world of professional polo” and the US Open Polo Championship in Florida, Netflix said."
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2024/apr/11/harry-and-meghan-to-produce-two-netflix-series-about-lifestyle-and-polo
"Archewell Productions, formed by the couple in 2020, is “dedicated to illuminating thought-provoking and diverse narratives that underscore our common humanity and celebrate community”, according to the company’s website."
BTW, on Gaza etc, Labour is going to stand more or less where the UK and the USA governments stand. There is no other place to go. It would be nice to be able to point to an alternative, morally sound policy with assured decent outcomes for good people on all sides but there isn't one to be had.
Download the excel.
Firstly, Ukraine had nuclear weapons. They have up their possession of those weapons in return for security guarantees; which to their shame, the guarantors did not keep. There is zero way Russia would have done the Crimea and Donbass adventures if Ukraine had even the threat of working nukes.
Secondly, the reaction to Russian nuclear 'threats' shows that the threats alone have a military power any number of regiments wouldn't have.
The tragedy of the Russian evil is that it will lead to more countries with 'interesting' leaders accelerating their nuclear programs - as it shows that the threat of nukes allows you to pretty much what you want to non-nuke armed neighbours.
And in such a world, it would be idiocy to remove our own capability.
Even if a better technology is found I doubt it would make economic sense because the 8 panels are only £600 of the £4500 quotes I've had to put the panels up.
The article does also mention seats like Ladywood and Riverside where support is slumping but these are rock solid labour seats and it acknowledges they will likely stay labour.
Surely it should be an inner suburb of Nottingham, or similar?
Quite a fun photo - he could be a character out of LA Confidential.
(I still haven't forgiven those bastard editors on the Guardian for a photo they took of the three out of about twenty-five shops in our square that were closed for refurbishment, and wrote a storyline about how the whole thing was a disaster as a way of launching a rather self-serving attack on Lee Anderson.
There's plenty to go at Lee Anderson on, without any need for lies about the constituency.)
I'm a great fan of aneutronic fusion over 'normal' D-T or D-D fusion. Yes, it is much more complex to do, but the efficiencies and simplicity may make that worthwhile.
A battery-free car is never going to happen, but it doesn't need to be battery-free to be solar powered.
Then every book that quotes Marx on how the relations of production are out of line with the means of production, or which asks the social question, could just be incinerated.
Progress! And think of the military importance.