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A Lost Decade – politicalbetting.com

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598
    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Taz said:

    Rishi Sunak and Tory MPs at risk of election wipe out could keep seats over voter ID confusion, poll suggests
    https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-and-tory-mps-at-risk-of-election-wipe-out-could-keep-seats-over-voter-id-confusion-poll-suggests-13112590

    Was the actual polling done by a reputable pollster, all I can see in the article is it is based on something from the hardly impartial group "Best For Britain".
    Survation.

    From the Best for Britain site:-
    The massive Best for Britain MRP poll of more than 15,000 people undertaken by Survation found that 16% of respondents don’t know about new voter ID rules suggesting that around 5 million voters could be turned away when they try to cast their vote in the upcoming local and General Elections with 1.85 million in marginal and ultra marginal seats.
    https://www.bestforbritain.org/5_million_to_be_disenfranchised_voter_id_rules
    Funnily enough, I reckon that's quite good news; I thought it would be much higher than 16%. Once the GE, in particular, is called, I'd expect the opposition parties to drive that figure down to a very low % through a bombardment of messages, particularly aimed at the young.
    I think voter ID could negatively affect turnout in the locals and mayorals, though.
    I also wonder if it will affect young people as disproportionately as we think. They are used to having to produce ID. It is the oldies who don't and are less likely to carry a driving licence/passport around with them.

    Outside London, does everybody have a bus pass now?
    I mean do all over 60s (or is it pensioners? I'm out of the loop on this now!) have a bus pass?
    OLdies/disabled bus passes only. Presumably cos there is some sort of checking involved with the original supplier. But note the "get a youngster into a pub for buying alcohol" card is also valid.

    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/voting-and-elections/voter-id/accepted-forms-photo-id
  • eekeek Posts: 27,939

    Has anyone seen any documentation relating to the set-up of the Horizon programme (or parent programme, if it was part of some broader change initiative)? In particular, the weight given to the reduction of Sub-postmaster fraud in any cost-benefit-risk analysis and whether the realisation of those benefits, specifically fraud reduction, was embedded in senior management bonus schemes.

    Looking for what incentives motivated those who behaved appallingly, it may have simply been the threat of having to lose and even pay back the bonuses that were paying for school fees and a second holiday every year.

    You don’t need to look at benefits if you listened to the last set of witness the investigators were only on temporary contracts - getting renewed was incentive enough

    As for the plan - it was always believed their was fraud within branches - the whole point of horizon was that it would capture it and the reduction in losses would then cover the cost of it
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083
    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Taz said:

    Rishi Sunak and Tory MPs at risk of election wipe out could keep seats over voter ID confusion, poll suggests
    https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-and-tory-mps-at-risk-of-election-wipe-out-could-keep-seats-over-voter-id-confusion-poll-suggests-13112590

    Was the actual polling done by a reputable pollster, all I can see in the article is it is based on something from the hardly impartial group "Best For Britain".
    Survation.

    From the Best for Britain site:-
    The massive Best for Britain MRP poll of more than 15,000 people undertaken by Survation found that 16% of respondents don’t know about new voter ID rules suggesting that around 5 million voters could be turned away when they try to cast their vote in the upcoming local and General Elections with 1.85 million in marginal and ultra marginal seats.
    https://www.bestforbritain.org/5_million_to_be_disenfranchised_voter_id_rules
    Funnily enough, I reckon that's quite good news; I thought it would be much higher than 16%. Once the GE, in particular, is called, I'd expect the opposition parties to drive that figure down to a very low % through a bombardment of messages, particularly aimed at the young.
    I think voter ID could negatively affect turnout in the locals and mayorals, though.
    I also wonder if it will affect young people as disproportionately as we think. They are used to having to produce ID. It is the oldies who don't and are less likely to carry a driving licence/passport around with them.

    Outside London, does everybody have a bus pass now?
    I mean do all over 60s (or is it pensioners? I'm out of the loop on this now!) have a bus pass?
    Good morning.

    60 in London

    State Pension age everywhere else
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411

    Has anyone seen any documentation relating to the set-up of the Horizon programme (or parent programme, if it was part of some broader change initiative)? In particular, the weight given to the reduction of Sub-postmaster fraud in any cost-benefit-risk analysis and whether the realisation of those benefits, specifically fraud reduction, was embedded in senior management bonus schemes.

    Looking for what incentives motivated those who behaved appallingly, it may have simply been the threat of having to lose and even pay back the bonuses that were paying for school fees and a second holiday every year.

    What seems to have happened is that

    1) the Horizon program went live and started lots of "fraud"
    2) the legal team got all fired up
    3) management saw all this wonderful activity, which fed back to their dislike and suspicion of SPs, and loved it,.
    4) management claimed responsibility for victory.
    5) in doing so, they nailed their trousers to the mast head. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0751806/characters/nm0001329
    6) they did, indeed, start awarding bonuses to themselves, based on their awesomeness.
    7) then questions were asked.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598
    eek said:

    Has anyone seen any documentation relating to the set-up of the Horizon programme (or parent programme, if it was part of some broader change initiative)? In particular, the weight given to the reduction of Sub-postmaster fraud in any cost-benefit-risk analysis and whether the realisation of those benefits, specifically fraud reduction, was embedded in senior management bonus schemes.

    Looking for what incentives motivated those who behaved appallingly, it may have simply been the threat of having to lose and even pay back the bonuses that were paying for school fees and a second holiday every year.

    You don’t need to look at benefits if you listened to the last set of witness the investigators were only on temporary contracts - getting renewed was incentive enough

    As for the plan - it was always believed their was fraud within branches - the whole point of horizon was that it would capture it and the reduction in losses would then cover the cost of it
    The Horizon prog and the investigators were different departments entirely, no? Though see this:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/post-office-horizon-investigators-bonuses-b2476869.html
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,939

    “They didn’t like me standing up to them, in the first instance; they were finding it awkward; and I don’t think they could answer these questions. I think they had a feeling I was going to carry on in a similar vein going forward.”

    This goes way beyond what happened at the Post Office. It summarises the inability of the UK management class generally - in the public and private sector - to engage with anything that challenges comfortable assumptions and established ways of doing things. The immediate reaction to someone asking awkward questions or raising difficult points is not to engage but to ignore them, to label them a trouble maker or to try to make them go away - or a combination of all three. In the absence of dynamic, open-minded senior leadership - and how often is that found anywhere? - this means problems fester and get worse.

    The PO is a particularly egregious example and one that has directly ruined a lot of lives but this is something that is deeply embedded in how things are run across the board in this country. It's at the root of so many of our problems.

    This isn’t just U.K. Management culture problem.

    South Korean airlines had a culture problem with juniors not challenging the senior pilots actions.

    We’ve see the Boeing approach to problems made known from below.

    NASA killed two Space Shuttles of astronauts in this way.

    Building a work culture that doesn’t have this issue is hard. It requires commitment and training. And above all, leadership.
    The problem is that universal conventional wisdom (in politics as well as management) is to throw out the sceptics, the squeaky wheels, those who are damned as not team players. This is why diversity can be valuable, and a few firms use red teaming and the mediaeval papacy had devil's advocates.
    J.S. Mill has plenty to say on this in "On Liberty".
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083
    edited April 11
    Am I right in thinking that in recent elections evidence showed that the voter ID disproportionately impacted older people rather than young?

    @PJH is right. Young people DO have ID. I don’t know any who don’t. For the reason that you need it so often to buy alcohol or paracetamol etc. and you can be ID checked anytime into your 30’s.

    It’s older folk that may not be savvy with it. I know some for example who haven’t bothered renewing their passports because they don’t intend travelling / or aren’t able. Same with driving.

    60% of young Britons will travel abroad this year, for which you need ID. That figure more than halves past pension age.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,887
    PJH said:

    Taz said:

    Rishi Sunak and Tory MPs at risk of election wipe out could keep seats over voter ID confusion, poll suggests
    https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-and-tory-mps-at-risk-of-election-wipe-out-could-keep-seats-over-voter-id-confusion-poll-suggests-13112590

    Was the actual polling done by a reputable pollster, all I can see in the article is it is based on something from the hardly impartial group "Best For Britain".
    Survation.

    From the Best for Britain site:-
    The massive Best for Britain MRP poll of more than 15,000 people undertaken by Survation found that 16% of respondents don’t know about new voter ID rules suggesting that around 5 million voters could be turned away when they try to cast their vote in the upcoming local and General Elections with 1.85 million in marginal and ultra marginal seats.
    https://www.bestforbritain.org/5_million_to_be_disenfranchised_voter_id_rules
    Funnily enough, I reckon that's quite good news; I thought it would be much higher than 16%. Once the GE, in particular, is called, I'd expect the opposition parties to drive that figure down to a very low % through a bombardment of messages, particularly aimed at the young.
    I think voter ID could negatively affect turnout in the locals and mayorals, though.
    I also wonder if it will affect young people as disproportionately as we think. They are used to having to produce ID. It is the oldies who don't and are less likely to carry a driving licence/passport around with them.

    Outside London, does everybody have a bus pass now?
    A lot of people have bus passes, Mr PJH. But I do not think they are very useful.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598

    Has anyone seen any documentation relating to the set-up of the Horizon programme (or parent programme, if it was part of some broader change initiative)? In particular, the weight given to the reduction of Sub-postmaster fraud in any cost-benefit-risk analysis and whether the realisation of those benefits, specifically fraud reduction, was embedded in senior management bonus schemes.

    Looking for what incentives motivated those who behaved appallingly, it may have simply been the threat of having to lose and even pay back the bonuses that were paying for school fees and a second holiday every year.

    What seems to have happened is that

    1) the Horizon program went live and started lots of "fraud"
    2) the legal team got all fired up
    3) management saw all this wonderful activity, which fed back to their dislike and suspicion of SPs, and loved it,.
    4) management claimed responsibility for victory.
    5) in doing so, they nailed their trousers to the mast head. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0751806/characters/nm0001329
    6) they did, indeed, start awarding bonuses to themselves, based on their awesomeness.
    7) then questions were asked.
    You fxorgot 8) management paying themselves bonuses for deigning to answer the questions

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/20/post-office-boss-apologises-for-inquiry-bonus-payments

    There's also possible 9) bonuses for profits inflated by misappropriating from subbies and 10) ditto inflated by crediting compo payments against taxable income

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/13/post-office-could-face-100m-bill-over-compensation-tax-relief-says-expert
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083

    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Taz said:

    Rishi Sunak and Tory MPs at risk of election wipe out could keep seats over voter ID confusion, poll suggests
    https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-and-tory-mps-at-risk-of-election-wipe-out-could-keep-seats-over-voter-id-confusion-poll-suggests-13112590

    Was the actual polling done by a reputable pollster, all I can see in the article is it is based on something from the hardly impartial group "Best For Britain".
    Survation.

    From the Best for Britain site:-
    The massive Best for Britain MRP poll of more than 15,000 people undertaken by Survation found that 16% of respondents don’t know about new voter ID rules suggesting that around 5 million voters could be turned away when they try to cast their vote in the upcoming local and General Elections with 1.85 million in marginal and ultra marginal seats.
    https://www.bestforbritain.org/5_million_to_be_disenfranchised_voter_id_rules
    Funnily enough, I reckon that's quite good news; I thought it would be much higher than 16%. Once the GE, in particular, is called, I'd expect the opposition parties to drive that figure down to a very low % through a bombardment of messages, particularly aimed at the young.
    I think voter ID could negatively affect turnout in the locals and mayorals, though.
    I also wonder if it will affect young people as disproportionately as we think. They are used to having to produce ID. It is the oldies who don't and are less likely to carry a driving licence/passport around with them.

    Outside London, does everybody have a bus pass now?
    I mean do all over 60s (or is it pensioners? I'm out of the loop on this now!) have a bus pass?
    acceptable ID has been more limited for the young than the old.
    That just isn’t true Nick
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    Carnyx said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    Thank you, CF, for another excellent piece on this subject.

    Following this scandal has proved not only enlightening but personally helpful in my own jousts with large organisations in recent years. In my case it has been Gloucestershire Police and British Gas, but it could equally well have been others, and I'm sure PBers will be able to quote their own examples.

    Lessons have been learned, by me at least. Don't accept that they are either competent or honest. Do not accept what you know not to be true, even if it is offered as a compromise deal. Fight your corner, and if possible, connect with others who have been mistreated.

    I'm still hoping to see prosecutions in the PO case. Although part of me feels some sympathy with Vennels - how does she sleep nights? - I think we have to see her and her colleagues in the dock if the message is ever to get through to the senior management of large organisations that they are not immune, however well-connected they may be. If that can be demonstrated in the PO case, there is some hope that others will truly learn lessons.

    I am not holding my breath but I remain hopeful. Your efforts, and those of other like you, Ms CF, nurture that hope.

    Peter, nice thoughts but Vennels will be enjoying her millions and believing she has been badly treated by a bunch of oicks. These people have no shame and believe they are always right.
    Which is exactly why she - and a dozen or two more that were involved at a senior level in this scandal - need to spend some time eating prison food.
    Given IANAL what sort of charges would they face ? What would the crime be, or alleged crime ?
    Fraud, false accounting, making false representations, perjury related to the prosecutions of SPMs, misconduct in public office, offences related to evidence at the inquiry and their contempt for it, and probably quite a few more. I think malicious prosecution is a crime as well, from back in the day when police would ‘fit up’ a suspect.
    The last is a civil tort. Victims could sue for damages under it.
    I have wondered out loud, if there was the possibility of civil action against individuals by the SPMs, for some of the more egregious offences.

    Most of those affected do not have good lives at the moment, whereas all of the senior people involved appear to be living somewhat comfortably on very large pensions, and even a few months inside won’t particularly change their lifestyle afterwards.
    Cost. I believe no win no fee is illegal in the UK? And legal aid cuts. And the individual targets aren't necessarily very rich cash wise, house ownership aside, and much of that money would disappear in legal fees. So you'd be doing the legal system's job for it and bankrupting yourself in the process when you are already poor, if you could find a lawyer to take it on.

    Plus a lot of those people will have only been working at the PO for a short period, and there is therefore no "very large pension" specific to the PO period.
    Contingency fee litigation is legal in the UK, within certain limits.

    In most countries, going after individuals is structured to be hard. You can go after companies/organisations - but individuals within organisations are protected by the the idea of organisation policy.

    I suspect that this scandal will end up with one or more people being "cut loose" by the Post Office - that they will have their hands dirty with actual crimes. The Post Office will declare that this was, obviously, against PO policies, and try and shift the blame onto them.

    Without the PO legal shield, they would be easy prey for prosecution.

    Think David Attenborough documentary... The lions are attacking. One or two of the slower wildebeest are left behind by the herd.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,120
    edited April 11
    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Rishi Sunak and Tory MPs at risk of election wipe out could keep seats over voter ID confusion, poll suggests
    https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-and-tory-mps-at-risk-of-election-wipe-out-could-keep-seats-over-voter-id-confusion-poll-suggests-13112590

    Was the actual polling done by a reputable pollster, all I can see in the article is it is based on something from the hardly impartial group "Best For Britain".
    Yes it was done by Survation. The fact B4B is the sponsor and it's a message they care about (and we should all care about) doesn't make this a voodoo poll.

    The responses by age group show why the Tories introduced this measure: 27% of 18-24 year olds were unaware of the voter ID requirement (and of course they're the least likely to have ID), vs 6% of the over-65s.

    It's little games like this that could save the party from wipeout.
    While I share some of the concerns about it, there are several reasons why the write-up is overblown in terms of numbers and impact.

    Firstly, polling was in March, before polling cards went out. These have a pretty prominent statement on the ID requirement on them, and many campaigning leaflets feature it. These things also just get discussed more as elections approach. Of course, this won't eliminate lack of awareness (how many people pay close attention?) but will reduce it by 2nd May.

    Secondly, I think the write-up forgets about postal voting in terms of calculating those potentially affected - if a postal voter is unaware of what an in-person voter needs to bring with them to the polling station, it's rather academic.

    Thirdly, one suspects awareness correlates with voting likelihood - I think the poll controls for this to a degree, but low engagement voters are less likely to vote, ID or not.

    Fourthly, quite a lot of people actually have valid photo ID in the form in their wallet/handbag (driving licence, over 60 bus pass, proof of age ID for youngsters). So those people might be surprised when asked for ID at the polling station, but would in fact be fine to vote.

    Finally, the presumption in the write-up is it'd differentially affect non-Tory voters. It may, and the fact over 60s are probably more likely to have ID on them while awareness is lower in younger groups is relevant. But we're also told Tory voters aren't that motivated this time so you'd have thought a Tory voter who is turned away from the polling station is somewhat less likely to bother going home to get ID and come back than someone who is keen to turf them out.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,100
    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Rishi Sunak and Tory MPs at risk of election wipe out could keep seats over voter ID confusion, poll suggests
    https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-and-tory-mps-at-risk-of-election-wipe-out-could-keep-seats-over-voter-id-confusion-poll-suggests-13112590

    Was the actual polling done by a reputable pollster, all I can see in the article is it is based on something from the hardly impartial group "Best For Britain".
    Yes it was done by Survation. The fact B4B is the sponsor and it's a message they care about (and we should all care about) doesn't make this a voodoo poll.

    The responses by age group show why the Tories introduced this measure: 27% of 18-24 year olds were unaware of the voter ID requirement (and of course they're the least likely to have ID), vs 6% of the over-65s.

    It's little games like this that could save the party from wipeout.
    Thanks. The SKY article wasn't abundantly clear although it is quite a "busy" website with all sorts of ads and the like.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,302
    Heathener said:

    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Taz said:

    Rishi Sunak and Tory MPs at risk of election wipe out could keep seats over voter ID confusion, poll suggests
    https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-and-tory-mps-at-risk-of-election-wipe-out-could-keep-seats-over-voter-id-confusion-poll-suggests-13112590

    Was the actual polling done by a reputable pollster, all I can see in the article is it is based on something from the hardly impartial group "Best For Britain".
    Survation.

    From the Best for Britain site:-
    The massive Best for Britain MRP poll of more than 15,000 people undertaken by Survation found that 16% of respondents don’t know about new voter ID rules suggesting that around 5 million voters could be turned away when they try to cast their vote in the upcoming local and General Elections with 1.85 million in marginal and ultra marginal seats.
    https://www.bestforbritain.org/5_million_to_be_disenfranchised_voter_id_rules
    Funnily enough, I reckon that's quite good news; I thought it would be much higher than 16%. Once the GE, in particular, is called, I'd expect the opposition parties to drive that figure down to a very low % through a bombardment of messages, particularly aimed at the young.
    I think voter ID could negatively affect turnout in the locals and mayorals, though.
    I also wonder if it will affect young people as disproportionately as we think. They are used to having to produce ID. It is the oldies who don't and are less likely to carry a driving licence/passport around with them.

    Outside London, does everybody have a bus pass now?
    I mean do all over 60s (or is it pensioners? I'm out of the loop on this now!) have a bus pass?
    Good morning.

    60 in London

    State Pension age everywhere else
    tsk, usual little englander mentality,

    60 in Northern Ireland.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    Carnyx said:

    Has anyone seen any documentation relating to the set-up of the Horizon programme (or parent programme, if it was part of some broader change initiative)? In particular, the weight given to the reduction of Sub-postmaster fraud in any cost-benefit-risk analysis and whether the realisation of those benefits, specifically fraud reduction, was embedded in senior management bonus schemes.

    Looking for what incentives motivated those who behaved appallingly, it may have simply been the threat of having to lose and even pay back the bonuses that were paying for school fees and a second holiday every year.

    What seems to have happened is that

    1) the Horizon program went live and started lots of "fraud"
    2) the legal team got all fired up
    3) management saw all this wonderful activity, which fed back to their dislike and suspicion of SPs, and loved it,.
    4) management claimed responsibility for victory.
    5) in doing so, they nailed their trousers to the mast head. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0751806/characters/nm0001329
    6) they did, indeed, start awarding bonuses to themselves, based on their awesomeness.
    7) then questions were asked.
    You fxorgot 8) management paying themselves bonuses for deigning to answer the questions

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/20/post-office-boss-apologises-for-inquiry-bonus-payments

    There's also possible 9) bonuses for profits inflated by misappropriating from subbies and 10) ditto inflated by crediting compo payments against taxable income

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/13/post-office-could-face-100m-bill-over-compensation-tax-relief-says-expert
    I included all of that in 6.

    You also forgot, paying compensation so that half of it went straight back to the tax man. Nice for the shareholders. Being the tax man, basically. Bet they awarded themselves a treble for that.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,860
    DavidL said:

    I think, slightly uncharacteristically, @Cyclefree is cutting Mr Leighton too much slack here. The Horizon program was not some incidental or side issue for what became Post Office Counters. It was, and remains, the core management tool for the business allowing the business to monitor the hundreds of thousands of remote transactions being carried out on its behalf by hundreds of staff and self employed contractors. Any suggestion that it had some serious flaws which made that information flow inaccurate really went to the heart of the business and the senior management and the Chairman should have been all over it looking for reassurance.

    It is the stunning lack of curiosity and reluctance to glance under the bonnet even when some rather odd noises were being emitted which frankly makes you wonder whether this was indeed gross neglect or wilful blindness.

    Allan Leighton’s career path is the perfect embodiment of NU10K.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 636
    Heathener said:

    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Taz said:

    Rishi Sunak and Tory MPs at risk of election wipe out could keep seats over voter ID confusion, poll suggests
    https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-and-tory-mps-at-risk-of-election-wipe-out-could-keep-seats-over-voter-id-confusion-poll-suggests-13112590

    Was the actual polling done by a reputable pollster, all I can see in the article is it is based on something from the hardly impartial group "Best For Britain".
    Survation.

    From the Best for Britain site:-
    The massive Best for Britain MRP poll of more than 15,000 people undertaken by Survation found that 16% of respondents don’t know about new voter ID rules suggesting that around 5 million voters could be turned away when they try to cast their vote in the upcoming local and General Elections with 1.85 million in marginal and ultra marginal seats.
    https://www.bestforbritain.org/5_million_to_be_disenfranchised_voter_id_rules
    Funnily enough, I reckon that's quite good news; I thought it would be much higher than 16%. Once the GE, in particular, is called, I'd expect the opposition parties to drive that figure down to a very low % through a bombardment of messages, particularly aimed at the young.
    I think voter ID could negatively affect turnout in the locals and mayorals, though.
    I also wonder if it will affect young people as disproportionately as we think. They are used to having to produce ID. It is the oldies who don't and are less likely to carry a driving licence/passport around with them.

    Outside London, does everybody have a bus pass now?
    I mean do all over 60s (or is it pensioners? I'm out of the loop on this now!) have a bus pass?
    Good morning.

    60 in London

    State Pension age everywhere else
    Thanks - that's why I wasn't sure then (checks calendar for when I'm 60 as it's looming quicker than I'd like!)
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083
    ClippP said:

    PJH said:

    Taz said:

    Rishi Sunak and Tory MPs at risk of election wipe out could keep seats over voter ID confusion, poll suggests
    https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-and-tory-mps-at-risk-of-election-wipe-out-could-keep-seats-over-voter-id-confusion-poll-suggests-13112590

    Was the actual polling done by a reputable pollster, all I can see in the article is it is based on something from the hardly impartial group "Best For Britain".
    Survation.

    From the Best for Britain site:-
    The massive Best for Britain MRP poll of more than 15,000 people undertaken by Survation found that 16% of respondents don’t know about new voter ID rules suggesting that around 5 million voters could be turned away when they try to cast their vote in the upcoming local and General Elections with 1.85 million in marginal and ultra marginal seats.
    https://www.bestforbritain.org/5_million_to_be_disenfranchised_voter_id_rules
    Funnily enough, I reckon that's quite good news; I thought it would be much higher than 16%. Once the GE, in particular, is called, I'd expect the opposition parties to drive that figure down to a very low % through a bombardment of messages, particularly aimed at the young.
    I think voter ID could negatively affect turnout in the locals and mayorals, though.
    I also wonder if it will affect young people as disproportionately as we think. They are used to having to produce ID. It is the oldies who don't and are less likely to carry a driving licence/passport around with them.

    Outside London, does everybody have a bus pass now?
    A lot of people have bus passes, Mr PJH. But I do not think they are very useful.
    In what way are they not very useful? For residents of England and Wales they give free bus travel throughout England and Wales, but NOT Scotland at weekends and bank holidays and after 9.30 weekdays.

    If you use the bus they are fantastic.

    I have one but not from retirement age or London residence - I’ve a long way to go on that front.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598
    ClippP said:

    PJH said:

    Taz said:

    Rishi Sunak and Tory MPs at risk of election wipe out could keep seats over voter ID confusion, poll suggests
    https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-and-tory-mps-at-risk-of-election-wipe-out-could-keep-seats-over-voter-id-confusion-poll-suggests-13112590

    Was the actual polling done by a reputable pollster, all I can see in the article is it is based on something from the hardly impartial group "Best For Britain".
    Survation.

    From the Best for Britain site:-
    The massive Best for Britain MRP poll of more than 15,000 people undertaken by Survation found that 16% of respondents don’t know about new voter ID rules suggesting that around 5 million voters could be turned away when they try to cast their vote in the upcoming local and General Elections with 1.85 million in marginal and ultra marginal seats.
    https://www.bestforbritain.org/5_million_to_be_disenfranchised_voter_id_rules
    Funnily enough, I reckon that's quite good news; I thought it would be much higher than 16%. Once the GE, in particular, is called, I'd expect the opposition parties to drive that figure down to a very low % through a bombardment of messages, particularly aimed at the young.
    I think voter ID could negatively affect turnout in the locals and mayorals, though.
    I also wonder if it will affect young people as disproportionately as we think. They are used to having to produce ID. It is the oldies who don't and are less likely to carry a driving licence/passport around with them.

    Outside London, does everybody have a bus pass now?
    A lot of people have bus passes, Mr PJH. But I do not think they are very useful.
    It depends where you are. Here in Lothian they are *extremely* useful. The main issue with them is the mentality of some old folk that it is sponging off the state/feckless/as good as keeping coal in the bath - all to do with the anti-benefits hatred whipped up by the right wing media. I had real trouble with an elderly relative who couldn't be shaken out of that. If he were still alive he'd probably not be able to vote at all with his passport expired.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725

    Thank you, CF, for another excellent piece on this subject.

    Following this scandal has proved not only enlightening but personally helpful in my own jousts with large organisations in recent years. In my case it has been Gloucestershire Police and British Gas, but it could equally well have been others, and I'm sure PBers will be able to quote their own examples.

    Lessons have been learned, by me at least. Don't accept that they are either competent or honest. Do not accept what you know not to be true, even if it is offered as a compromise deal. Fight your corner, and if possible, connect with others who have been mistreated.

    I'm still hoping to see prosecutions in the PO case. Although part of me feels some sympathy with Vennels - how does she sleep nights? - I think we have to see her and her colleagues in the dock if the message is ever to get through to the senior management of large organisations that they are not immune, however well-connected they may be. If that can be demonstrated in the PO case, there is some hope that others will truly learn lessons.

    I am not holding my breath but I remain hopeful. Your efforts, and those of other like you, Ms CF, nurture that hope.

    How does Vennels et al sleep at night?

    I suggest you find some gloss magazine interviews with some Big Cheese(s) a couple of years downstream from the Big Scandal.

    In a spread, which often contains shots of nice country house in summer, Our Victim explains how he/she was Victimised. Despite being a super achiever, somehow they got saddled with the responsibility they were legally responsible for.

    It was a hard time. Maybe even a stay at the posh end of Priory Chain. But he/she found another 6 figure job, where he/she is Doing Good Work for The Public Benefit.

    In every such story, what is missing?
    But the reason that remorse is missing is because of the selection and formation processes people have undergone to get to the top. Any empathy for others or willingness to admit fault tends to have been internally suppressed and externally trained out of them.

    And that's not surprising, given the head-on-a-spike treatment given to those who come off on the wrong side of a scandal. Aggressive cover-ups are just playing the odds rationally.

    Deep down, we all know (I think) that an approach to management that is humbler and more honest would be better. Accepting that mistakes happen and the important thing is to find and fix them quickly. Less reputation management, more like aviation.

    What we don't know is how to get there from here.
    Key hearing dates coming up are Crozier tomorrow, probably afternoon, Susan Crichton on 23 April, Angela van den Bogerd over 25-26 April, and Vennells over 22-24 May. Alice Perkins (aka Mrs Straw) might be interesting also, over 5-6 June. And the Second Sight guys might be worth watching on 18 June, although their evidence is already in the public domain. The Fujitsu engineer Gareth Jenkins has been scheduled four days over 25-28 June, and is believed to be one of the figures of police interest. Tim Parker, former PO Chair, is timetabled for 2-3 July. For devotees, the key civil servants are due on 4-5 July and 9-11 July. Ed Davey for 18 July, Jo Swinson for 19 July, Vince Cable for 25 July, with some Tory and Labour relevant junior ministers in between. Closing statements are due on 26 July.

    And for entertainment value, another spin with Jarnail Singh on 3 May, as the local election results come in.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,100

    Taz said:

    Rishi Sunak and Tory MPs at risk of election wipe out could keep seats over voter ID confusion, poll suggests
    https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-and-tory-mps-at-risk-of-election-wipe-out-could-keep-seats-over-voter-id-confusion-poll-suggests-13112590

    Was the actual polling done by a reputable pollster, all I can see in the article is it is based on something from the hardly impartial group "Best For Britain".
    Survation.

    From the Best for Britain site:-
    The massive Best for Britain MRP poll of more than 15,000 people undertaken by Survation found that 16% of respondents don’t know about new voter ID rules suggesting that around 5 million voters could be turned away when they try to cast their vote in the upcoming local and General Elections with 1.85 million in marginal and ultra marginal seats.
    https://www.bestforbritain.org/5_million_to_be_disenfranchised_voter_id_rules
    Cheers
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,652
    Heathener said:

    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Taz said:

    Rishi Sunak and Tory MPs at risk of election wipe out could keep seats over voter ID confusion, poll suggests
    https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-and-tory-mps-at-risk-of-election-wipe-out-could-keep-seats-over-voter-id-confusion-poll-suggests-13112590

    Was the actual polling done by a reputable pollster, all I can see in the article is it is based on something from the hardly impartial group "Best For Britain".
    Survation.

    From the Best for Britain site:-
    The massive Best for Britain MRP poll of more than 15,000 people undertaken by Survation found that 16% of respondents don’t know about new voter ID rules suggesting that around 5 million voters could be turned away when they try to cast their vote in the upcoming local and General Elections with 1.85 million in marginal and ultra marginal seats.
    https://www.bestforbritain.org/5_million_to_be_disenfranchised_voter_id_rules
    Funnily enough, I reckon that's quite good news; I thought it would be much higher than 16%. Once the GE, in particular, is called, I'd expect the opposition parties to drive that figure down to a very low % through a bombardment of messages, particularly aimed at the young.
    I think voter ID could negatively affect turnout in the locals and mayorals, though.
    I also wonder if it will affect young people as disproportionately as we think. They are used to having to produce ID. It is the oldies who don't and are less likely to carry a driving licence/passport around with them.

    Outside London, does everybody have a bus pass now?
    I mean do all over 60s (or is it pensioners? I'm out of the loop on this now!) have a bus pass?
    Good morning.

    60 in London

    State Pension age everywhere else
    Not so. 60 in Scotland. Also all under 22s and disabled

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083

    Heathener said:

    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Taz said:

    Rishi Sunak and Tory MPs at risk of election wipe out could keep seats over voter ID confusion, poll suggests
    https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-and-tory-mps-at-risk-of-election-wipe-out-could-keep-seats-over-voter-id-confusion-poll-suggests-13112590

    Was the actual polling done by a reputable pollster, all I can see in the article is it is based on something from the hardly impartial group "Best For Britain".
    Survation.

    From the Best for Britain site:-
    The massive Best for Britain MRP poll of more than 15,000 people undertaken by Survation found that 16% of respondents don’t know about new voter ID rules suggesting that around 5 million voters could be turned away when they try to cast their vote in the upcoming local and General Elections with 1.85 million in marginal and ultra marginal seats.
    https://www.bestforbritain.org/5_million_to_be_disenfranchised_voter_id_rules
    Funnily enough, I reckon that's quite good news; I thought it would be much higher than 16%. Once the GE, in particular, is called, I'd expect the opposition parties to drive that figure down to a very low % through a bombardment of messages, particularly aimed at the young.
    I think voter ID could negatively affect turnout in the locals and mayorals, though.
    I also wonder if it will affect young people as disproportionately as we think. They are used to having to produce ID. It is the oldies who don't and are less likely to carry a driving licence/passport around with them.

    Outside London, does everybody have a bus pass now?
    I mean do all over 60s (or is it pensioners? I'm out of the loop on this now!) have a bus pass?
    Good morning.

    60 in London

    State Pension age everywhere else
    tsk, usual little englander mentality,

    60 in Northern Ireland.
    to be fair, I saw your post after I had already posted about the differences re. Scotland. The England and Wales pass cannot be used there.
  • Carnyx said:

    ClippP said:

    PJH said:

    Taz said:

    Rishi Sunak and Tory MPs at risk of election wipe out could keep seats over voter ID confusion, poll suggests
    https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-and-tory-mps-at-risk-of-election-wipe-out-could-keep-seats-over-voter-id-confusion-poll-suggests-13112590

    Was the actual polling done by a reputable pollster, all I can see in the article is it is based on something from the hardly impartial group "Best For Britain".
    Survation.

    From the Best for Britain site:-
    The massive Best for Britain MRP poll of more than 15,000 people undertaken by Survation found that 16% of respondents don’t know about new voter ID rules suggesting that around 5 million voters could be turned away when they try to cast their vote in the upcoming local and General Elections with 1.85 million in marginal and ultra marginal seats.
    https://www.bestforbritain.org/5_million_to_be_disenfranchised_voter_id_rules
    Funnily enough, I reckon that's quite good news; I thought it would be much higher than 16%. Once the GE, in particular, is called, I'd expect the opposition parties to drive that figure down to a very low % through a bombardment of messages, particularly aimed at the young.
    I think voter ID could negatively affect turnout in the locals and mayorals, though.
    I also wonder if it will affect young people as disproportionately as we think. They are used to having to produce ID. It is the oldies who don't and are less likely to carry a driving licence/passport around with them.

    Outside London, does everybody have a bus pass now?
    A lot of people have bus passes, Mr PJH. But I do not think they are very useful.
    It depends where you are. Here in Lothian they are *extremely* useful. The main issue with them is the mentality of some old folk that it is sponging off the state/feckless/as good as keeping coal in the bath - all to do with the anti-benefits hatred whipped up by the right wing media. I had real trouble with an elderly relative who couldn't be shaken out of that. If he were still alive he'd probably not be able to vote at all with his passport expired.
    An expired passport is valid voter ID (as long as you're recognisable - you might struggle with one from 1968).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598

    Heathener said:

    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Taz said:

    Rishi Sunak and Tory MPs at risk of election wipe out could keep seats over voter ID confusion, poll suggests
    https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-and-tory-mps-at-risk-of-election-wipe-out-could-keep-seats-over-voter-id-confusion-poll-suggests-13112590

    Was the actual polling done by a reputable pollster, all I can see in the article is it is based on something from the hardly impartial group "Best For Britain".
    Survation.

    From the Best for Britain site:-
    The massive Best for Britain MRP poll of more than 15,000 people undertaken by Survation found that 16% of respondents don’t know about new voter ID rules suggesting that around 5 million voters could be turned away when they try to cast their vote in the upcoming local and General Elections with 1.85 million in marginal and ultra marginal seats.
    https://www.bestforbritain.org/5_million_to_be_disenfranchised_voter_id_rules
    Funnily enough, I reckon that's quite good news; I thought it would be much higher than 16%. Once the GE, in particular, is called, I'd expect the opposition parties to drive that figure down to a very low % through a bombardment of messages, particularly aimed at the young.
    I think voter ID could negatively affect turnout in the locals and mayorals, though.
    I also wonder if it will affect young people as disproportionately as we think. They are used to having to produce ID. It is the oldies who don't and are less likely to carry a driving licence/passport around with them.

    Outside London, does everybody have a bus pass now?
    I mean do all over 60s (or is it pensioners? I'm out of the loop on this now!) have a bus pass?
    Good morning.

    60 in London

    State Pension age everywhere else
    tsk, usual little englander mentality,

    60 in Northern Ireland.
    Scotland too.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 636
    Heathener said:

    Am I right in thinking that in recent elections evidence showed that the voter ID disproportionately impacted older people rather than young?

    @PJH is right. Young people DO have ID. I don’t know any who don’t. For the reason that you need it so often to buy alcohol or paracetamol etc. and you can be ID checked anytime into your 30’s.

    It’s older folk that may not be savvy with it. I know some for example who haven’t bothered renewing their passports because they don’t intend travelling / or aren’t able. Same with driving.

    60% of young Britons will travel abroad this year, for which you need ID. That figure more than halves past pension age.

    So I think the people who are most likely to be caught out are the older, non-pensioner group. How that impacts voting patterns, I wouldn't like to say! You could make a case for them being more Tory than average (due to age) but maybe also skewed to the poorer groups so maybe impacting Labour after all. More research needed.

    I agree with @NickPalmer that it's a blatant attempt to skew the vote, but I wonder if it might backfire.
  • eekeek Posts: 27,939

    Has anyone seen any documentation relating to the set-up of the Horizon programme (or parent programme, if it was part of some broader change initiative)? In particular, the weight given to the reduction of Sub-postmaster fraud in any cost-benefit-risk analysis and whether the realisation of those benefits, specifically fraud reduction, was embedded in senior management bonus schemes.

    Looking for what incentives motivated those who behaved appallingly, it may have simply been the threat of having to lose and even pay back the bonuses that were paying for school fees and a second holiday every year.

    What seems to have happened is that

    1) the Horizon program went live and started lots of "fraud"
    2) the legal team got all fired up
    3) management saw all this wonderful activity, which fed back to their dislike and suspicion of SPs, and loved it,.
    4) management claimed responsibility for victory.
    5) in doing so, they nailed their trousers to the mast head. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0751806/characters/nm0001329
    6) they did, indeed, start awarding bonuses to themselves, based on their awesomeness.
    7) then questions were asked.
    I will add
    0) a certain amount of fraud had been identified but was difficult to track and prosecute. It was felt there was way more fraud than what had been identified and it was hoped Horizon would help identify it
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598

    Carnyx said:

    ClippP said:

    PJH said:

    Taz said:

    Rishi Sunak and Tory MPs at risk of election wipe out could keep seats over voter ID confusion, poll suggests
    https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-and-tory-mps-at-risk-of-election-wipe-out-could-keep-seats-over-voter-id-confusion-poll-suggests-13112590

    Was the actual polling done by a reputable pollster, all I can see in the article is it is based on something from the hardly impartial group "Best For Britain".
    Survation.

    From the Best for Britain site:-
    The massive Best for Britain MRP poll of more than 15,000 people undertaken by Survation found that 16% of respondents don’t know about new voter ID rules suggesting that around 5 million voters could be turned away when they try to cast their vote in the upcoming local and General Elections with 1.85 million in marginal and ultra marginal seats.
    https://www.bestforbritain.org/5_million_to_be_disenfranchised_voter_id_rules
    Funnily enough, I reckon that's quite good news; I thought it would be much higher than 16%. Once the GE, in particular, is called, I'd expect the opposition parties to drive that figure down to a very low % through a bombardment of messages, particularly aimed at the young.
    I think voter ID could negatively affect turnout in the locals and mayorals, though.
    I also wonder if it will affect young people as disproportionately as we think. They are used to having to produce ID. It is the oldies who don't and are less likely to carry a driving licence/passport around with them.

    Outside London, does everybody have a bus pass now?
    A lot of people have bus passes, Mr PJH. But I do not think they are very useful.
    It depends where you are. Here in Lothian they are *extremely* useful. The main issue with them is the mentality of some old folk that it is sponging off the state/feckless/as good as keeping coal in the bath - all to do with the anti-benefits hatred whipped up by the right wing media. I had real trouble with an elderly relative who couldn't be shaken out of that. If he were still alive he'd probably not be able to vote at all with his passport expired.
    An expired passport is valid voter ID (as long as you're recognisable - you might struggle with one from 1968).
    Thanks! Just goes to show how shambolic it all is.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    eek said:

    Has anyone seen any documentation relating to the set-up of the Horizon programme (or parent programme, if it was part of some broader change initiative)? In particular, the weight given to the reduction of Sub-postmaster fraud in any cost-benefit-risk analysis and whether the realisation of those benefits, specifically fraud reduction, was embedded in senior management bonus schemes.

    Looking for what incentives motivated those who behaved appallingly, it may have simply been the threat of having to lose and even pay back the bonuses that were paying for school fees and a second holiday every year.

    What seems to have happened is that

    1) the Horizon program went live and started lots of "fraud"
    2) the legal team got all fired up
    3) management saw all this wonderful activity, which fed back to their dislike and suspicion of SPs, and loved it,.
    4) management claimed responsibility for victory.
    5) in doing so, they nailed their trousers to the mast head. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0751806/characters/nm0001329
    6) they did, indeed, start awarding bonuses to themselves, based on their awesomeness.
    7) then questions were asked.
    I will add
    0) a certain amount of fraud had been identified but was difficult to track and prosecute. It was felt there was way more fraud than what had been identified and it was hoped Horizon would help identify it
    The blatant attempt to hide the truth and fight dirty to make the legal case go away is way worse than the cluelessness and incompetence on display in those early years, particularly allowing for Fujitsu having supplied a defective product and being less than open (i.e. lying) about it to the PO.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083
    The lack of bus pass consistency across the UK has perplexed me for some time. As some of you may know, I spend a fair bit of time in Scotland where the E&W bus pass cannot be used. It’s quite frustrating.

    A United Kingdom that isn’t united, however much @TSE tells us otherwise? ;)
  • PJH said:

    Heathener said:

    Am I right in thinking that in recent elections evidence showed that the voter ID disproportionately impacted older people rather than young?

    @PJH is right. Young people DO have ID. I don’t know any who don’t. For the reason that you need it so often to buy alcohol or paracetamol etc. and you can be ID checked anytime into your 30’s.

    It’s older folk that may not be savvy with it. I know some for example who haven’t bothered renewing their passports because they don’t intend travelling / or aren’t able. Same with driving.

    60% of young Britons will travel abroad this year, for which you need ID. That figure more than halves past pension age.

    So I think the people who are most likely to be caught out are the older, non-pensioner group. How that impacts voting patterns, I wouldn't like to say! You could make a case for them being more Tory than average (due to age) but maybe also skewed to the poorer groups so maybe impacting Labour after all. More research needed.

    I agree with @NickPalmer that it's a blatant attempt to skew the vote, but I wonder if it might backfire.
    Jacob Rees-Mogg has pretty much said as much at the NatC conference last year. His quote was, "Parties that try and gerrymander end up finding their clever scheme comes back to bite them, as dare I say we found by insisting on voter ID for elections. We found the people who didn't have ID were elderly and they by and large voted Conservative, so we made it hard for our own voters and we upset a system that worked perfectly well."

    I take that with a pinch of salt, and there may even be a bit of gameplay in trying to ensure it's not repealed at a later date. But there isn't clear evidence as to who the winners and losers are, certainly.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    PJH said:

    Heathener said:

    Am I right in thinking that in recent elections evidence showed that the voter ID disproportionately impacted older people rather than young?

    @PJH is right. Young people DO have ID. I don’t know any who don’t. For the reason that you need it so often to buy alcohol or paracetamol etc. and you can be ID checked anytime into your 30’s.

    It’s older folk that may not be savvy with it. I know some for example who haven’t bothered renewing their passports because they don’t intend travelling / or aren’t able. Same with driving.

    60% of young Britons will travel abroad this year, for which you need ID. That figure more than halves past pension age.

    So I think the people who are most likely to be caught out are the older, non-pensioner group. How that impacts voting patterns, I wouldn't like to say! You could make a case for them being more Tory than average (due to age) but maybe also skewed to the poorer groups so maybe impacting Labour after all. More research needed.

    I agree with @NickPalmer that it's a blatant attempt to skew the vote, but I wonder if it might backfire.
    I think so too.

    The Gap Year Kids will have photo ID, though do need to remember it.

    Oldies who do not drive or travel abroad may well not have it. As SE class is no longer an indicator of Tory/Lab preference this may well impact the Tory vote as much or more than the Lab vote, and apart from depressing turnout and annoying potential voters do nothing to benefit the Tories.

    I would consider any proof of ID (such as a debit card) valid ID myself if someone is in possession of their polling cars, and photo ID only if no polling card.
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    I see Rollo has been banned. Wasn't there a famously metamorphosing contributor here who wrote about his ancestors including a fierce Viking leader who he said had a battlefield religious conversion? I could have sworn the said leader's name was Rollo.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,860
    PJH said:

    Heathener said:

    Am I right in thinking that in recent elections evidence showed that the voter ID disproportionately impacted older people rather than young?

    @PJH is right. Young people DO have ID. I don’t know any who don’t. For the reason that you need it so often to buy alcohol or paracetamol etc. and you can be ID checked anytime into your 30’s.

    It’s older folk that may not be savvy with it. I know some for example who haven’t bothered renewing their passports because they don’t intend travelling / or aren’t able. Same with driving.

    60% of young Britons will travel abroad this year, for which you need ID. That figure more than halves past pension age.

    So I think the people who are most likely to be caught out are the older, non-pensioner group. How that impacts voting patterns, I wouldn't like to say! You could make a case for them being more Tory than average (due to age) but maybe also skewed to the poorer groups so maybe impacting Labour after all. More research needed.

    I agree with @NickPalmer that it's a blatant attempt to skew the vote, but I wonder if it might backfire.
    I understand that the ID rules are to be tightened up so that the only valid form of ID will be a current Conservative Party membership card.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,477
    Heathener said:

    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Taz said:

    Rishi Sunak and Tory MPs at risk of election wipe out could keep seats over voter ID confusion, poll suggests
    https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-and-tory-mps-at-risk-of-election-wipe-out-could-keep-seats-over-voter-id-confusion-poll-suggests-13112590

    Was the actual polling done by a reputable pollster, all I can see in the article is it is based on something from the hardly impartial group "Best For Britain".
    Survation.

    From the Best for Britain site:-
    The massive Best for Britain MRP poll of more than 15,000 people undertaken by Survation found that 16% of respondents don’t know about new voter ID rules suggesting that around 5 million voters could be turned away when they try to cast their vote in the upcoming local and General Elections with 1.85 million in marginal and ultra marginal seats.
    https://www.bestforbritain.org/5_million_to_be_disenfranchised_voter_id_rules
    Funnily enough, I reckon that's quite good news; I thought it would be much higher than 16%. Once the GE, in particular, is called, I'd expect the opposition parties to drive that figure down to a very low % through a bombardment of messages, particularly aimed at the young.
    I think voter ID could negatively affect turnout in the locals and mayorals, though.
    I also wonder if it will affect young people as disproportionately as we think. They are used to having to produce ID. It is the oldies who don't and are less likely to carry a driving licence/passport around with them.

    Outside London, does everybody have a bus pass now?
    I mean do all over 60s (or is it pensioners? I'm out of the loop on this now!) have a bus pass?
    Good morning.

    60 in London

    State Pension age everywhere else
    There is an important caveat to this. Those are the ages at which you can apply for a bus pass. They are not issued automatically. If you do not regularly take buses, why bother getting one?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083
    Foxy said:

    PJH said:

    Heathener said:

    Am I right in thinking that in recent elections evidence showed that the voter ID disproportionately impacted older people rather than young?

    @PJH is right. Young people DO have ID. I don’t know any who don’t. For the reason that you need it so often to buy alcohol or paracetamol etc. and you can be ID checked anytime into your 30’s.

    It’s older folk that may not be savvy with it. I know some for example who haven’t bothered renewing their passports because they don’t intend travelling / or aren’t able. Same with driving.

    60% of young Britons will travel abroad this year, for which you need ID. That figure more than halves past pension age.

    So I think the people who are most likely to be caught out are the older, non-pensioner group. How that impacts voting patterns, I wouldn't like to say! You could make a case for them being more Tory than average (due to age) but maybe also skewed to the poorer groups so maybe impacting Labour after all. More research needed.

    I agree with @NickPalmer that it's a blatant attempt to skew the vote, but I wonder if it might backfire.
    I think so too.

    The Gap Year Kids will have photo ID, though do need to remember it.

    Oldies who do not drive or travel abroad may well not have it. As SE class is no longer an indicator of Tory/Lab preference this may well impact the Tory vote as much or more than the Lab vote, and apart from depressing turnout and annoying potential voters do nothing to benefit the Tories.

    I would consider any proof of ID (such as a debit card) valid ID myself if someone is in possession of their polling cars, and photo ID only if no polling card.
    I think this is spot on and I don’t detect deceit in JRM’s comments on the subject?

    It genuinely looks to have backfired. A friend of mine in her 50’s no longer has a passport which is probably unusual but travelling tails off. There’s usually a spike on retirement, before it tails off again.



    Younger folk have proportionately more ID for travel, booze, paracetamol etc.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 636

    PJH said:

    Heathener said:

    Am I right in thinking that in recent elections evidence showed that the voter ID disproportionately impacted older people rather than young?

    @PJH is right. Young people DO have ID. I don’t know any who don’t. For the reason that you need it so often to buy alcohol or paracetamol etc. and you can be ID checked anytime into your 30’s.

    It’s older folk that may not be savvy with it. I know some for example who haven’t bothered renewing their passports because they don’t intend travelling / or aren’t able. Same with driving.

    60% of young Britons will travel abroad this year, for which you need ID. That figure more than halves past pension age.

    So I think the people who are most likely to be caught out are the older, non-pensioner group. How that impacts voting patterns, I wouldn't like to say! You could make a case for them being more Tory than average (due to age) but maybe also skewed to the poorer groups so maybe impacting Labour after all. More research needed.

    I agree with @NickPalmer that it's a blatant attempt to skew the vote, but I wonder if it might backfire.
    I understand that the ID rules are to be tightened up so that the only valid form of ID will be a current Conservative Party membership card.
    LOL - even that wouldn't guarantee a Cnservative majority, I suspect :smiley:
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,302
    Heathener said:

    The lack of bus pass consistency across the UK has perplexed me for some time. As some of you may know, I spend a fair bit of time in Scotland where the E&W bus pass cannot be used. It’s quite frustrating.

    A United Kingdom that isn’t united, however much @TSE tells us otherwise? ;)

    This is diversity in action.

    England sends its celtic neighbours lots of money. Then we treat you like shit.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    An interesting article setting out ways in which Labour could gather in a decent amount of money, were it to suddenly become bold and brave....

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/apr/10/public-spending-labour-90bn
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,120
    edited April 11
    Heathener said:

    The lack of bus pass consistency across the UK has perplexed me for some time. As some of you may know, I spend a fair bit of time in Scotland where the E&W bus pass cannot be used. It’s quite frustrating.

    A United Kingdom that isn’t united, however much @TSE tells us otherwise? ;)

    Why does it perplex you? It's a devolved power and it's not unreasonable for one country in the UK to pay for travel for its own pensioners (or over 60s) but not for others. Similarly, Scotland pays tuition fees for Scottish students in Scotland but English students in Scotland or Scottish ones in England pay fees (not a good policy in educational terms in my view, but one they are entitled to have).

    I don't really know why you'd expect or want consistency on devolved matters.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,302
    IanB2 said:

    An interesting article setting out ways in which Labour could gather in a decent amount of money, were it to suddenly become bold and brave....

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/apr/10/public-spending-labour-90bn

    ROFL the last half of your sentence is a hoot.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,477
    Heathener said:

    The lack of bus pass consistency across the UK has perplexed me for some time. As some of you may know, I spend a fair bit of time in Scotland where the E&W bus pass cannot be used. It’s quite frustrating.

    A United Kingdom that isn’t united, however much @TSE tells us otherwise? ;)

    There'd not be much point in devolution or even local democracy only for all the rules to be the same throughout the land.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083

    Heathener said:

    The lack of bus pass consistency across the UK has perplexed me for some time. As some of you may know, I spend a fair bit of time in Scotland where the E&W bus pass cannot be used. It’s quite frustrating.

    A United Kingdom that isn’t united, however much @TSE tells us otherwise? ;)

    This is diversity in action.

    England sends its celtic neighbours lots of money. Then we treat you like shit.
    :D
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Taz said:

    Rishi Sunak and Tory MPs at risk of election wipe out could keep seats over voter ID confusion, poll suggests
    https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-and-tory-mps-at-risk-of-election-wipe-out-could-keep-seats-over-voter-id-confusion-poll-suggests-13112590

    Was the actual polling done by a reputable pollster, all I can see in the article is it is based on something from the hardly impartial group "Best For Britain".
    Survation.

    From the Best for Britain site:-
    The massive Best for Britain MRP poll of more than 15,000 people undertaken by Survation found that 16% of respondents don’t know about new voter ID rules suggesting that around 5 million voters could be turned away when they try to cast their vote in the upcoming local and General Elections with 1.85 million in marginal and ultra marginal seats.
    https://www.bestforbritain.org/5_million_to_be_disenfranchised_voter_id_rules
    Funnily enough, I reckon that's quite good news; I thought it would be much higher than 16%. Once the GE, in particular, is called, I'd expect the opposition parties to drive that figure down to a very low % through a bombardment of messages, particularly aimed at the young.
    I think voter ID could negatively affect turnout in the locals and mayorals, though.
    I also wonder if it will affect young people as disproportionately as we think. They are used to having to produce ID. It is the oldies who don't and are less likely to carry a driving licence/passport around with them.

    Outside London, does everybody have a bus pass now?
    I mean do all over 60s (or is it pensioners? I'm out of the loop on this now!) have a bus pass?
    Good morning.

    60 in London

    State Pension age everywhere else
    tsk, usual little englander mentality,

    60 in Northern Ireland.
    to be fair, I saw your post after I had already posted about the differences re. Scotland. The England and Wales pass cannot be used there.
    An England pass cannot be used in Wales and vice versa. Source:

    https://www.traveline.cymru/faqs/

    This is all totally ridiculous and so is the way London is split from the rest of England. It's a pain in the neck for people who live near the boundaries. I thought there was supposed to be a union. I've no problem with it being administered by devolved bodies, but the actual provision should be universal: if you're resident in Britain and over 60, you get free bus travel.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,217
    .
    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Heavy bombardment of Ukraine again last night. As usual, the vast majority of targets were civilian infrastructure. And civilians.

    It is unbearable. russia has just struck the Odesa district w ballistic missiles, killing four, including a 10yo girl and injuring seven. One man lost both legs, doctors fight for his life. Ffs, the West has enough Patriots, which were produced to save people, not collect dust
    https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1778102937857765690

    If Sunak really wants to cement a legacy, something undoubtedly good he achieved with his time in office, he’d act unilaterally now to send every spare weapon we can get our hands on to Ukraine. JFDI.

    Bonus points if he can set aside political rivalries, and brings Starmer and Johnson into the programme as well.
    To add, it appears that in recent weeks most countries appears to have replaced actions with discussions with regard to Ukraine, with the possible exception, I hate to say, of the French.

    The Germans are heading for a severe recession, the Americans are more interested in Israel and on domestic spending in an election year, Eastern European countries are more concerned about supporting the Ukranian refugees and have already given much in military aid given their own position, and the Baltics and Finland are concentrating on their own threat from the angry bear.

    Hell, I wouldn’t even mind if Sunak teams up with Macron, that’s how bad the situation is now. Let them announce a new Concorde project, getting everyone together from both countries to quickly get new production lines of Ukranian weapons running.
    There do seem to have been a lot of announcements in recent weeks of Eastern European countries managing to find shells on the global market. That, alongside air defence, seems to be the main need of Ukraine at the moment - ammunition.
    Also air defence, which is just as vital, and in almost equally short supply.

    I've been saying for years that we spend far too much on large capital projects (the fairly useless carriers, for example, or Ajax), and far too little on shells, bombs and missiles of all types.

    A lot of ammo barely obsoletes - look at Russia turning decades old iron bombs as guided glider weapons, or the US 2.75in rocket (originally Korean war vintage) being repurposed as a smart missile:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Precision_Kill_Weapon_System
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Heavy bombardment of Ukraine again last night. As usual, the vast majority of targets were civilian infrastructure. And civilians.

    It is unbearable. russia has just struck the Odesa district w ballistic missiles, killing four, including a 10yo girl and injuring seven. One man lost both legs, doctors fight for his life. Ffs, the West has enough Patriots, which were produced to save people, not collect dust
    https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1778102937857765690

    If Sunak really wants to cement a legacy, something undoubtedly good he achieved with his time in office, he’d act unilaterally now to send every spare weapon we can get our hands on to Ukraine. JFDI.

    Bonus points if he can set aside political rivalries, and brings Starmer and Johnson into the programme as well.
    To add, it appears that in recent weeks most countries appears to have replaced actions with discussions with regard to Ukraine, with the possible exception, I hate to say, of the French.

    The Germans are heading for a severe recession, the Americans are more interested in Israel and on domestic spending in an election year, Eastern European countries are more concerned about supporting the Ukranian refugees and have already given much in military aid given their own position, and the Baltics and Finland are concentrating on their own threat from the angry bear.

    Hell, I wouldn’t even mind if Sunak teams up with Macron, that’s how bad the situation is now. Let them announce a new Concorde project, getting everyone together from both countries to quickly get new production lines of Ukranian weapons running.
    There do seem to have been a lot of announcements in recent weeks of Eastern European countries managing to find shells on the global market. That, alongside air defence, seems to be the main need of Ukraine at the moment - ammunition.
    Its critical. There is a serious danger of a Ukrainian collapse in the next few weeks where they simply run out of ammunition and the ability to operate counter battery fire allowing the Russians to use their artillery with a freedom that they have very rarely had in this war. Hopefully, that's what was being addressed at the NATO conference Cameron was at in the last week.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    edited April 11

    Heathener said:

    The lack of bus pass consistency across the UK has perplexed me for some time. As some of you may know, I spend a fair bit of time in Scotland where the E&W bus pass cannot be used. It’s quite frustrating.

    A United Kingdom that isn’t united, however much @TSE tells us otherwise? ;)

    This is diversity in action.

    England sends its celtic neighbours lots of money. Then we treat you like shit.
    And you also bomb us.

    Still you’re not as bad as the Welsh rugby team fans.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083
    I note that ‘devolved powers’ suits the English until it doesn’t when they claim it impinges on national concerns. There’s an obvious example of that in recent times, which is a topic I’m not going into on here, as y’all know.

    The English are so hypocritical, it beggars belief.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,217

    Thank you, CF, for another excellent piece on this subject.

    Following this scandal has proved not only enlightening but personally helpful in my own jousts with large organisations in recent years. In my case it has been Gloucestershire Police and British Gas, but it could equally well have been others, and I'm sure PBers will be able to quote their own examples.

    Lessons have been learned, by me at least. Don't accept that they are either competent or honest. Do not accept what you know not to be true, even if it is offered as a compromise deal. Fight your corner, and if possible, connect with others who have been mistreated.

    I'm still hoping to see prosecutions in the PO case. Although part of me feels some sympathy with Vennels - how does she sleep nights? - I think we have to see her and her colleagues in the dock if the message is ever to get through to the senior management of large organisations that they are not immune, however well-connected they may be. If that can be demonstrated in the PO case, there is some hope that others will truly learn lessons.

    I am not holding my breath but I remain hopeful. Your efforts, and those of other like you, Ms CF, nurture that hope.

    How does Vennels et al sleep at night?

    I suggest you find some gloss magazine interviews with some Big Cheese(s) a couple of years downstream from the Big Scandal.

    In a spread, which often contains shots of nice country house in summer, Our Victim explains how he/she was Victimised. Despite being a super achiever, somehow they got saddled with the responsibility they were legally responsible for.

    It was a hard time. Maybe even a stay at the posh end of Priory Chain. But he/she found another 6 figure job, where he/she is Doing Good Work for The Public Benefit.

    In every such story, what is missing?
    But the reason that remorse is missing is because of the selection and formation processes people have undergone to get to the top. Any empathy for others or willingness to admit fault tends to have been internally suppressed and externally trained out of them.

    And that's not surprising, given the head-on-a-spike treatment given to those who come off on the wrong side of a scandal. Aggressive cover-ups are just playing the odds rationally.

    Deep down, we all know (I think) that an approach to management that is humbler and more honest would be better. Accepting that mistakes happen and the important thing is to find and fix them quickly. Less reputation management, more like aviation.

    What we don't know is how to get there from here.
    "Less reputation management; more management" would be a pretty good guide for politician, too.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    edited April 11
    Nigelb said:

    .

    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Heavy bombardment of Ukraine again last night. As usual, the vast majority of targets were civilian infrastructure. And civilians.

    It is unbearable. russia has just struck the Odesa district w ballistic missiles, killing four, including a 10yo girl and injuring seven. One man lost both legs, doctors fight for his life. Ffs, the West has enough Patriots, which were produced to save people, not collect dust
    https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1778102937857765690

    If Sunak really wants to cement a legacy, something undoubtedly good he achieved with his time in office, he’d act unilaterally now to send every spare weapon we can get our hands on to Ukraine. JFDI.

    Bonus points if he can set aside political rivalries, and brings Starmer and Johnson into the programme as well.
    To add, it appears that in recent weeks most countries appears to have replaced actions with discussions with regard to Ukraine, with the possible exception, I hate to say, of the French.

    The Germans are heading for a severe recession, the Americans are more interested in Israel and on domestic spending in an election year, Eastern European countries are more concerned about supporting the Ukranian refugees and have already given much in military aid given their own position, and the Baltics and Finland are concentrating on their own threat from the angry bear.

    Hell, I wouldn’t even mind if Sunak teams up with Macron, that’s how bad the situation is now. Let them announce a new Concorde project, getting everyone together from both countries to quickly get new production lines of Ukranian weapons running.
    There do seem to have been a lot of announcements in recent weeks of Eastern European countries managing to find shells on the global market. That, alongside air defence, seems to be the main need of Ukraine at the moment - ammunition.
    Also air defence, which is just as vital, and in almost equally short supply.

    I've been saying for years that we spend far too much on large capital projects (the fairly useless carriers, for example, or Ajax), and far too little on shells, bombs and missiles of all types.

    A lot of ammo barely obsoletes - look at Russia turning decades old iron bombs as guided glider weapons, or the US 2.75in rocket (originally Korean war vintage) being repurposed as a smart missile:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Precision_Kill_Weapon_System
    Many, many "smart" weapons consist of an old dumb bomb with guidance systems strapped to it.

    EDIT: The problem in Ukraine is that they have (barely) enough advanced air defence to guard major sites. Which is why the Russians are going after civilian targets.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083
    edited April 11
    Donkeys said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Taz said:

    Rishi Sunak and Tory MPs at risk of election wipe out could keep seats over voter ID confusion, poll suggests
    https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-and-tory-mps-at-risk-of-election-wipe-out-could-keep-seats-over-voter-id-confusion-poll-suggests-13112590

    Was the actual polling done by a reputable pollster, all I can see in the article is it is based on something from the hardly impartial group "Best For Britain".
    Survation.

    From the Best for Britain site:-
    The massive Best for Britain MRP poll of more than 15,000 people undertaken by Survation found that 16% of respondents don’t know about new voter ID rules suggesting that around 5 million voters could be turned away when they try to cast their vote in the upcoming local and General Elections with 1.85 million in marginal and ultra marginal seats.
    https://www.bestforbritain.org/5_million_to_be_disenfranchised_voter_id_rules
    Funnily enough, I reckon that's quite good news; I thought it would be much higher than 16%. Once the GE, in particular, is called, I'd expect the opposition parties to drive that figure down to a very low % through a bombardment of messages, particularly aimed at the young.
    I think voter ID could negatively affect turnout in the locals and mayorals, though.
    I also wonder if it will affect young people as disproportionately as we think. They are used to having to produce ID. It is the oldies who don't and are less likely to carry a driving licence/passport around with them.

    Outside London, does everybody have a bus pass now?
    I mean do all over 60s (or is it pensioners? I'm out of the loop on this now!) have a bus pass?
    Good morning.

    60 in London

    State Pension age everywhere else
    tsk, usual little englander mentality,

    60 in Northern Ireland.
    to be fair, I saw your post after I had already posted about the differences re. Scotland. The England and Wales pass cannot be used there.
    An England pass cannot be used in Wales and vice versa. Source:

    https://www.traveline.cymru/faqs/

    This is all totally ridiculous and so is the way London is split from the rest of England. It's a pain in the neck for people who live near the boundaries. I thought there was supposed to be a union. I've no problem with it being administered by devolved bodies, but the actual provision should be universal: if you're resident in Britain and over 60, you get free bus travel.
    Oh wow. I didn’t realise you can’t use an English pass in Wales.

    Utterly ridiculous. Only those who never use buses, or travel across the UK using buses, would think otherwise.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,506
    PJH said:

    Heathener said:

    Am I right in thinking that in recent elections evidence showed that the voter ID disproportionately impacted older people rather than young?

    @PJH is right. Young people DO have ID. I don’t know any who don’t. For the reason that you need it so often to buy alcohol or paracetamol etc. and you can be ID checked anytime into your 30’s.

    It’s older folk that may not be savvy with it. I know some for example who haven’t bothered renewing their passports because they don’t intend travelling / or aren’t able. Same with driving.

    60% of young Britons will travel abroad this year, for which you need ID. That figure more than halves past pension age.

    So I think the people who are most likely to be caught out are the older, non-pensioner group. How that impacts voting patterns, I wouldn't like to say! You could make a case for them being more Tory than average (due to age) but maybe also skewed to the poorer groups so maybe impacting Labour after all. More research needed.

    I agree with @NickPalmer that it's a blatant attempt to skew the vote, but I wonder if it might backfire.
    Regardless of who benefits*, I still cleave to the apparently unfashionable view that voter id is the right thing to do. It always struck me as innocuous that for something so important as voting it was essentially taken on trust for who you are. Voter fraud struck me as very very easy to do. The fact that there were few prosecutions for it seems beside the point. Is there anywhere else in the world as relaxed as Great Britain about the identity of voters?
    And yes, I accept that potential fraud through postal voting is the bigger issue. That needs sorting too. But that doesn't mean we should also address this issue.

    All that said, I think the chances of me voting are probably about 50% less with voter id in place. But that's because for me, voting is largely performative: there is no 2024 in which my vote has any impact whatsoever: Labour will win at every level regardless of what I do. So why incovenience myself further by looking through the big drawer for my driving license?

    *Though I think PJH and Nick Palmer are right about who will benefit.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083
    edited April 11
    Incidentally, whilst you can tap your freedom (bus) pass in London you cannot do that with a non-London bus pass. You have to wave it at the driver. It won’t work if tapped, even though tapping it is how it works outside London … until you reach the border with Wales and Scotland.

    Presumably if you catch a bus that crosses the border of this non-union, union, you can use it but not if you use it for the return leg.

    Just to add to the bizarre confusion.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,307
    Donkeys said:

    I see Rollo has been banned. Wasn't there a famously metamorphosing contributor here who wrote about his ancestors including a fierce Viking leader who he said had a battlefield religious conversion? I could have sworn the said leader's name was Rollo.

    Like his more-famous sister once sang, he went down with this ship, there was no white flag above his door.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-fWDrZSiZs
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,302
    edited April 11

    Heathener said:

    The lack of bus pass consistency across the UK has perplexed me for some time. As some of you may know, I spend a fair bit of time in Scotland where the E&W bus pass cannot be used. It’s quite frustrating.

    A United Kingdom that isn’t united, however much @TSE tells us otherwise? ;)

    This is diversity in action.

    England sends its celtic neighbours lots of money. Then we treat you like shit.
    And you also bomb us.

    Still you’re not as bad as the Welsh rugby team fans.
    Manchester would be a shithole if we hadnt created all those property development opportunities.

    In any case you english just love being treated with disdain, look how you grovel to the french.
  • Simon_PeachSimon_Peach Posts: 424
    The consensus in response to my question about the set-up of the Horizon programme was that the “benefit” of increased detection and prosecution of SPM fraud emerged as the programme was rolled-out rather than being an original intent when the programme was signed-off. Maybe, but I’d still like to see the original documentation and the governance structure if anyone knows where it can be found. I will do my own digging.
  • Donkeys said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Taz said:

    Rishi Sunak and Tory MPs at risk of election wipe out could keep seats over voter ID confusion, poll suggests
    https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-and-tory-mps-at-risk-of-election-wipe-out-could-keep-seats-over-voter-id-confusion-poll-suggests-13112590

    Was the actual polling done by a reputable pollster, all I can see in the article is it is based on something from the hardly impartial group "Best For Britain".
    Survation.

    From the Best for Britain site:-
    The massive Best for Britain MRP poll of more than 15,000 people undertaken by Survation found that 16% of respondents don’t know about new voter ID rules suggesting that around 5 million voters could be turned away when they try to cast their vote in the upcoming local and General Elections with 1.85 million in marginal and ultra marginal seats.
    https://www.bestforbritain.org/5_million_to_be_disenfranchised_voter_id_rules
    Funnily enough, I reckon that's quite good news; I thought it would be much higher than 16%. Once the GE, in particular, is called, I'd expect the opposition parties to drive that figure down to a very low % through a bombardment of messages, particularly aimed at the young.
    I think voter ID could negatively affect turnout in the locals and mayorals, though.
    I also wonder if it will affect young people as disproportionately as we think. They are used to having to produce ID. It is the oldies who don't and are less likely to carry a driving licence/passport around with them.

    Outside London, does everybody have a bus pass now?
    I mean do all over 60s (or is it pensioners? I'm out of the loop on this now!) have a bus pass?
    Good morning.

    60 in London

    State Pension age everywhere else
    tsk, usual little englander mentality,

    60 in Northern Ireland.
    to be fair, I saw your post after I had already posted about the differences re. Scotland. The England and Wales pass cannot be used there.
    An England pass cannot be used in Wales and vice versa. Source:

    https://www.traveline.cymru/faqs/

    This is all totally ridiculous and so is the way London is split from the rest of England. It's a pain in the neck for people who live near the boundaries. I thought there was supposed to be a union. I've no problem with it being administered by devolved bodies, but the actual provision should be universal: if you're resident in Britain and over 60, you get free bus travel.
    Why should it be universal? It's an expensive benefit as it is. I get that pensioners would like to enjoy more freebies in more places, as we all would. But it isn't "ridiculous" that they don't get what they want.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139

    Nigelb said:

    .

    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Heavy bombardment of Ukraine again last night. As usual, the vast majority of targets were civilian infrastructure. And civilians.

    It is unbearable. russia has just struck the Odesa district w ballistic missiles, killing four, including a 10yo girl and injuring seven. One man lost both legs, doctors fight for his life. Ffs, the West has enough Patriots, which were produced to save people, not collect dust
    https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1778102937857765690

    If Sunak really wants to cement a legacy, something undoubtedly good he achieved with his time in office, he’d act unilaterally now to send every spare weapon we can get our hands on to Ukraine. JFDI.

    Bonus points if he can set aside political rivalries, and brings Starmer and Johnson into the programme as well.
    To add, it appears that in recent weeks most countries appears to have replaced actions with discussions with regard to Ukraine, with the possible exception, I hate to say, of the French.

    The Germans are heading for a severe recession, the Americans are more interested in Israel and on domestic spending in an election year, Eastern European countries are more concerned about supporting the Ukranian refugees and have already given much in military aid given their own position, and the Baltics and Finland are concentrating on their own threat from the angry bear.

    Hell, I wouldn’t even mind if Sunak teams up with Macron, that’s how bad the situation is now. Let them announce a new Concorde project, getting everyone together from both countries to quickly get new production lines of Ukranian weapons running.
    There do seem to have been a lot of announcements in recent weeks of Eastern European countries managing to find shells on the global market. That, alongside air defence, seems to be the main need of Ukraine at the moment - ammunition.
    Also air defence, which is just as vital, and in almost equally short supply.

    I've been saying for years that we spend far too much on large capital projects (the fairly useless carriers, for example, or Ajax), and far too little on shells, bombs and missiles of all types.

    A lot of ammo barely obsoletes - look at Russia turning decades old iron bombs as guided glider weapons, or the US 2.75in rocket (originally Korean war vintage) being repurposed as a smart missile:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Precision_Kill_Weapon_System
    Many, many "smart" weapons consist of an old dumb bomb with guidance systems strapped to it.

    EDIT: The problem in Ukraine is that they have (barely) enough advanced air defence to guard major sites. Which is why the Russians are going after civilian targets.
    And apparently, some dumb f***wit in the Biden administration has called Russian oil facilities 'civilian' targets.

    https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/pentagon-calls-russian-oil-refineries-civilian-1712773609.html

    The Americans are not only withholding arms and aid (thanks, Republicans!); the Biden administration is actually making it next-to impossible to fight, let alone win.

    This is the way evil wins.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,001
    Donkeys said:

    I see Rollo has been banned. Wasn't there a famously metamorphosing contributor here who wrote about his ancestors including a fierce Viking leader who he said had a battlefield religious conversion? I could have sworn the said leader's name was Rollo.

    Now he's gone, I feel less bad in noting that Rollo reminded me only of the BBC kids show where the characters had very oddly articulated limbs.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    Donkeys said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Taz said:

    Rishi Sunak and Tory MPs at risk of election wipe out could keep seats over voter ID confusion, poll suggests
    https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-and-tory-mps-at-risk-of-election-wipe-out-could-keep-seats-over-voter-id-confusion-poll-suggests-13112590

    Was the actual polling done by a reputable pollster, all I can see in the article is it is based on something from the hardly impartial group "Best For Britain".
    Survation.

    From the Best for Britain site:-
    The massive Best for Britain MRP poll of more than 15,000 people undertaken by Survation found that 16% of respondents don’t know about new voter ID rules suggesting that around 5 million voters could be turned away when they try to cast their vote in the upcoming local and General Elections with 1.85 million in marginal and ultra marginal seats.
    https://www.bestforbritain.org/5_million_to_be_disenfranchised_voter_id_rules
    Funnily enough, I reckon that's quite good news; I thought it would be much higher than 16%. Once the GE, in particular, is called, I'd expect the opposition parties to drive that figure down to a very low % through a bombardment of messages, particularly aimed at the young.
    I think voter ID could negatively affect turnout in the locals and mayorals, though.
    I also wonder if it will affect young people as disproportionately as we think. They are used to having to produce ID. It is the oldies who don't and are less likely to carry a driving licence/passport around with them.

    Outside London, does everybody have a bus pass now?
    I mean do all over 60s (or is it pensioners? I'm out of the loop on this now!) have a bus pass?
    Good morning.

    60 in London

    State Pension age everywhere else
    tsk, usual little englander mentality,

    60 in Northern Ireland.
    to be fair, I saw your post after I had already posted about the differences re. Scotland. The England and Wales pass cannot be used there.
    An England pass cannot be used in Wales and vice versa. Source:

    https://www.traveline.cymru/faqs/

    This is all totally ridiculous and so is the way London is split from the rest of England. It's a pain in the neck for people who live near the boundaries. I thought there was supposed to be a union. I've no problem with it being administered by devolved bodies, but the actual provision should be universal: if you're resident in Britain and over 60, you get free bus travel.
    I'm 62 and in full time employment (despite the time I spend on here) on a reasonable wage. Why the hell should I get free buses? Is that really a good use of the limited public money available?

    As it happens I have never bothered to get one but I do have an old fogies' card to get a discount on rail tickets. We really need to stop these universal benefits to concentrate on those really in need.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411

    The consensus in response to my question about the set-up of the Horizon programme was that the “benefit” of increased detection and prosecution of SPM fraud emerged as the programme was rolled-out rather than being an original intent when the programme was signed-off. Maybe, but I’d still like to see the original documentation and the governance structure if anyone knows where it can be found. I will do my own digging.

    One of the stated goals of Horizon program, IIRC, was to make fraud more easily identifiable.

    So, went it started finding huge amounts of fraud...

    In several cases, the numbers were literally impossible. This was cash fraud - and in some cases, there was far less less cash passing through the Post Office branch during the time period of the fraud, than the alleged fraud.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,302
    edited April 11

    Donkeys said:

    I see Rollo has been banned. Wasn't there a famously metamorphosing contributor here who wrote about his ancestors including a fierce Viking leader who he said had a battlefield religious conversion? I could have sworn the said leader's name was Rollo.

    Now he's gone, I feel less bad in noting that Rollo reminded me only of the BBC kids show where the characters had very oddly articulated limbs.
    I think you'll find he's gone in the way Freddy Kruger is gone.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    Heathener said:

    I note that ‘devolved powers’ suits the English until it doesn’t when they claim it impinges on national concerns. There’s an obvious example of that in recent times, which is a topic I’m not going into on here, as y’all know.

    The English are so hypocritical, it beggars belief.

    The English are the only home nation without a devolved parliament of their own, you are talking I assume about the UK government?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,860

    Heathener said:

    The lack of bus pass consistency across the UK has perplexed me for some time. As some of you may know, I spend a fair bit of time in Scotland where the E&W bus pass cannot be used. It’s quite frustrating.

    A United Kingdom that isn’t united, however much @TSE tells us otherwise? ;)

    Why does it perplex you? It's a devolved power and it's not unreasonable for one country in the UK to pay for travel for its own pensioners (or over 60s) but not for others. Similarly, Scotland pays tuition fees for Scottish students in Scotland but English students in Scotland or Scottish ones in England pay fees (not a good policy in educational terms in my view, but one they are entitled to have).

    I don't really know why you'd expect or want consistency on devolved matters.
    Scotland also has something that many parts of England don’t have. Buses on which to use our bus passes.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,506
    edited April 11
    Heathener said:

    The lack of bus pass consistency across the UK has perplexed me for some time. As some of you may know, I spend a fair bit of time in Scotland where the E&W bus pass cannot be used. It’s quite frustrating.

    A United Kingdom that isn’t united, however much @TSE tells us otherwise? ;)

    I don't think bus pass consistency is the primary measure of whether the kingdom is united or not. We are apparently quite comfortable with separate parliaments, voting systems, legal systems, television channels, sports teams, highways authorities ... bus passes seems a much lower level of detail than any of those as a measure of how united the kingdom is. I mean, it wouldn't be entirely surprising to find Cheshire and Derbyshire had separate systems.

    I mean, I'm not necessarily saying that we can't or shouldn't allow E&W bus passes to be accepted in S and vice versa. Just that this isn't necessarily a system of a union creaking at the seams. More something that the public sector hasn't yet got round to.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,678
    boulay said:

    You can go a long way in a career by being very nice to all the right people, supporting institutions, being pleasant, giving innocuous help here and there, and word getting around. What you don't want is a reputation as being difficult or a troublemaker, and I suspect that often drives behaviour.

    Looking at her CV that appears to be precisely what happened to Paula Vennells:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/people/paula-vennells

    On a ridiculously complicated financial structure I was working on years ago I was one of the key stakeholders along with two other groups. We would have many calls with potential partners in the structure who were introduced in by one of the other parties.

    Every single time we had a new potential partner one of the key parties on the initial group introduction call would follow up my introduction with “yes, Boulay has a problem for every solution” and everyone would laugh away.

    The thing was is that the other parties just believed that we could charge headlong and if problems arose then we would work around them later, ignore them, beg people to bend the rules whereas I wanted to identify every possible problem from the start and check if there was an alternative way before we spent a year working on something which we knew could not be done legally, technically or financially. It made me very unpopular in the group and I eventually had to sack them off because they were wasting time and money and blowing up relations with other parties by having false hopes and ignoring problems.

    Every institution and company needs people who say “hang on, this won’t work”. They should actually have a specific role of “Director of No” and department of “I don’t think so” to sit at the board table with the directors of “false positivity”, department of “how to spend future bonuses on things you really want” and the “Too Scared to say no” committee.
    There is/was (at least when I was taught it many decades ago) a management philosophy around constructing teams along these lines. Teams should be made up of different types of people (Salesman type, Chairman type, Evaluator type, Problem solvers, etc). What you describe is the evaluator type. I and my wife fall into the category (she was involved in drug safety). We are both of the type that go 'Hang on that won't work because' or 'What about if x happens'. Although life isn't that simple of course as people have multiple skills (I also can present so worked on pre sales and marketing and I also enjoy problem solving so took over projects that had gone pear-shaped). However I do have a bias to seeing where things will go pear-shaped. However you can't have a team made up just of these types otherwise nothing gets done, which is a big flaw I have. So you need the evaluator to hold back the salesman type, but you need the salesman type to ensure the evaluator doesn't grind the whole thing to a halt.

    A very simple example of the usefulness of the evaluator: I was involved in organising large conferences. In big planning meetings I could tell I was being a big pain in the arse by constantly going 'That doesn't work because'. I think I only finally convinced people of my usefulness when they were desperate to wind stuff up and go and I pointed out that the one presenter was presenting in two different rooms at the same time.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169

    Donkeys said:

    I see Rollo has been banned. Wasn't there a famously metamorphosing contributor here who wrote about his ancestors including a fierce Viking leader who he said had a battlefield religious conversion? I could have sworn the said leader's name was Rollo.

    Like his more-famous sister once sang, he went down with this ship, there was no white flag above his door.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-fWDrZSiZs
    He went camping.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jd8GJyic_ec
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723

    Heathener said:

    The lack of bus pass consistency across the UK has perplexed me for some time. As some of you may know, I spend a fair bit of time in Scotland where the E&W bus pass cannot be used. It’s quite frustrating.

    A United Kingdom that isn’t united, however much @TSE tells us otherwise? ;)

    There'd not be much point in devolution or even local democracy only for all the rules to be the same throughout the land.
    But some things should be (and are) the same: car MOT rules, immigration, age of sexual consent.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,302
    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    I note that ‘devolved powers’ suits the English until it doesn’t when they claim it impinges on national concerns. There’s an obvious example of that in recent times, which is a topic I’m not going into on here, as y’all know.

    The English are so hypocritical, it beggars belief.

    The English are the only home nation without a devolved parliament of their own, you are talking I assume about the UK government?
    And nor should you have one. It would make taking even more money off you more difficult and that wouldnt be fair.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,100
    Donkeys said:

    I see Rollo has been banned. Wasn't there a famously metamorphosing contributor here who wrote about his ancestors including a fierce Viking leader who he said had a battlefield religious conversion? I could have sworn the said leader's name was Rollo.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_Rollo#Episodes
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411

    Nigelb said:

    .

    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Heavy bombardment of Ukraine again last night. As usual, the vast majority of targets were civilian infrastructure. And civilians.

    It is unbearable. russia has just struck the Odesa district w ballistic missiles, killing four, including a 10yo girl and injuring seven. One man lost both legs, doctors fight for his life. Ffs, the West has enough Patriots, which were produced to save people, not collect dust
    https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1778102937857765690

    If Sunak really wants to cement a legacy, something undoubtedly good he achieved with his time in office, he’d act unilaterally now to send every spare weapon we can get our hands on to Ukraine. JFDI.

    Bonus points if he can set aside political rivalries, and brings Starmer and Johnson into the programme as well.
    To add, it appears that in recent weeks most countries appears to have replaced actions with discussions with regard to Ukraine, with the possible exception, I hate to say, of the French.

    The Germans are heading for a severe recession, the Americans are more interested in Israel and on domestic spending in an election year, Eastern European countries are more concerned about supporting the Ukranian refugees and have already given much in military aid given their own position, and the Baltics and Finland are concentrating on their own threat from the angry bear.

    Hell, I wouldn’t even mind if Sunak teams up with Macron, that’s how bad the situation is now. Let them announce a new Concorde project, getting everyone together from both countries to quickly get new production lines of Ukranian weapons running.
    There do seem to have been a lot of announcements in recent weeks of Eastern European countries managing to find shells on the global market. That, alongside air defence, seems to be the main need of Ukraine at the moment - ammunition.
    Also air defence, which is just as vital, and in almost equally short supply.

    I've been saying for years that we spend far too much on large capital projects (the fairly useless carriers, for example, or Ajax), and far too little on shells, bombs and missiles of all types.

    A lot of ammo barely obsoletes - look at Russia turning decades old iron bombs as guided glider weapons, or the US 2.75in rocket (originally Korean war vintage) being repurposed as a smart missile:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Precision_Kill_Weapon_System
    Many, many "smart" weapons consist of an old dumb bomb with guidance systems strapped to it.

    EDIT: The problem in Ukraine is that they have (barely) enough advanced air defence to guard major sites. Which is why the Russians are going after civilian targets.
    And apparently, some dumb f***wit in the Biden administration has called Russian oil facilities 'civilian' targets.

    https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/pentagon-calls-russian-oil-refineries-civilian-1712773609.html

    The Americans are not only withholding arms and aid (thanks, Republicans!); the Biden administration is actually making it next-to impossible to fight, let alone win.

    This is the way evil wins.
    Oil refineries are next to impossible to defend and consist of a zillion miles of pipes. They are a saboteurs (and missile firers) dream.

    If going after oil refineries becomes a drawing room acceptable fashion, this could have some interesting knock on effects.

    One shame is that in the later part of WWII, Arthur Harris wasn't read in on Ultra. Which would have closed the loop on intelligence about the German oil supply. A single "playing card" of Mosquitos, using Oboe, could have put some Cookies onto each plant with a massive success rate. A bombing system good for a dozen yards of accuracy vs a target a mile across.

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083
    DavidL said:

    Donkeys said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Taz said:

    Rishi Sunak and Tory MPs at risk of election wipe out could keep seats over voter ID confusion, poll suggests
    https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-and-tory-mps-at-risk-of-election-wipe-out-could-keep-seats-over-voter-id-confusion-poll-suggests-13112590

    Was the actual polling done by a reputable pollster, all I can see in the article is it is based on something from the hardly impartial group "Best For Britain".
    Survation.

    From the Best for Britain site:-
    The massive Best for Britain MRP poll of more than 15,000 people undertaken by Survation found that 16% of respondents don’t know about new voter ID rules suggesting that around 5 million voters could be turned away when they try to cast their vote in the upcoming local and General Elections with 1.85 million in marginal and ultra marginal seats.
    https://www.bestforbritain.org/5_million_to_be_disenfranchised_voter_id_rules
    Funnily enough, I reckon that's quite good news; I thought it would be much higher than 16%. Once the GE, in particular, is called, I'd expect the opposition parties to drive that figure down to a very low % through a bombardment of messages, particularly aimed at the young.
    I think voter ID could negatively affect turnout in the locals and mayorals, though.
    I also wonder if it will affect young people as disproportionately as we think. They are used to having to produce ID. It is the oldies who don't and are less likely to carry a driving licence/passport around with them.

    Outside London, does everybody have a bus pass now?
    I mean do all over 60s (or is it pensioners? I'm out of the loop on this now!) have a bus pass?
    Good morning.

    60 in London

    State Pension age everywhere else
    tsk, usual little englander mentality,

    60 in Northern Ireland.
    to be fair, I saw your post after I had already posted about the differences re. Scotland. The England and Wales pass cannot be used there.
    An England pass cannot be used in Wales and vice versa. Source:

    https://www.traveline.cymru/faqs/

    This is all totally ridiculous and so is the way London is split from the rest of England. It's a pain in the neck for people who live near the boundaries. I thought there was supposed to be a union. I've no problem with it being administered by devolved bodies, but the actual provision should be universal: if you're resident in Britain and over 60, you get free bus travel.
    We really need to stop these universal benefits to concentrate on those really in need.
    There’s an inconsistency in that comment and an assumption that older people aren’t in need. Perhaps more seriously it can lead to the kind of Norfolk Passmore remark which lends itself to the uncaring attitude of the Right.

    There is perhaps a wider discussion of how pensioners are cared for to include the triple lock and state retirement age. But if it’s going to be discussed it shouldn’t be a carte blanche ‘we need to stop xyz’ but a reflection of how we care for our older people, as indeed how we look after those of tax paying age.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974

    How any Tory can look at the treatment David Cameron has received from Putin-backing Republicans in the US and still want Trump to be President is quite beyond me. The GOP is making it very clear that they hold vital UK security, defence and economic interests in absolute contempt.

    To be fair to Trump, he met Cameron at Mar a Lago only 2 days ago

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/04/09/david-cameron-donald-trump-meeting-florida-ukraine-funding/
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083
    I don’t think anyone has ever satisfactorily answered Tam Dalyell’s West Lothian Question
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    edited April 11

    Nigelb said:

    .

    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Heavy bombardment of Ukraine again last night. As usual, the vast majority of targets were civilian infrastructure. And civilians.

    It is unbearable. russia has just struck the Odesa district w ballistic missiles, killing four, including a 10yo girl and injuring seven. One man lost both legs, doctors fight for his life. Ffs, the West has enough Patriots, which were produced to save people, not collect dust
    https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1778102937857765690

    If Sunak really wants to cement a legacy, something undoubtedly good he achieved with his time in office, he’d act unilaterally now to send every spare weapon we can get our hands on to Ukraine. JFDI.

    Bonus points if he can set aside political rivalries, and brings Starmer and Johnson into the programme as well.
    To add, it appears that in recent weeks most countries appears to have replaced actions with discussions with regard to Ukraine, with the possible exception, I hate to say, of the French.

    The Germans are heading for a severe recession, the Americans are more interested in Israel and on domestic spending in an election year, Eastern European countries are more concerned about supporting the Ukranian refugees and have already given much in military aid given their own position, and the Baltics and Finland are concentrating on their own threat from the angry bear.

    Hell, I wouldn’t even mind if Sunak teams up with Macron, that’s how bad the situation is now. Let them announce a new Concorde project, getting everyone together from both countries to quickly get new production lines of Ukranian weapons running.
    There do seem to have been a lot of announcements in recent weeks of Eastern European countries managing to find shells on the global market. That, alongside air defence, seems to be the main need of Ukraine at the moment - ammunition.
    Also air defence, which is just as vital, and in almost equally short supply.

    I've been saying for years that we spend far too much on large capital projects (the fairly useless carriers, for example, or Ajax), and far too little on shells, bombs and missiles of all types.

    A lot of ammo barely obsoletes - look at Russia turning decades old iron bombs as guided glider weapons, or the US 2.75in rocket (originally Korean war vintage) being repurposed as a smart missile:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Precision_Kill_Weapon_System
    Many, many "smart" weapons consist of an old dumb bomb with guidance systems strapped to it.

    EDIT: The problem in Ukraine is that they have (barely) enough advanced air defence to guard major sites. Which is why the Russians are going after civilian targets.
    And apparently, some dumb f***wit in the Biden administration has called Russian oil facilities 'civilian' targets.

    https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/pentagon-calls-russian-oil-refineries-civilian-1712773609.html

    The Americans are not only withholding arms and aid (thanks, Republicans!); the Biden administration is actually making it next-to impossible to fight, let alone win.

    This is the way evil wins.
    American politics is totally broken at the moment, and there’s a whole bunch of other domestic and international distractions that mean Ukraine isn’t leading the news any more. Biden appears worried that American weapons end up used in Russia, or that bombing refineries might cause the oil price to rise ahead of the election. Many of the house Republicans are contrarian for the hell of it, and both parties in Congress are trying to tie unrelated things together for political reasons.

    Europe needs to step up and get on a war footing, just as Russia has started to do. That means getting production of basic weapons running ASAP.

    Come on Rishi, do the right thing and be remembered for something good you did.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    edited April 11
    Heathener said:

    DavidL said:

    Donkeys said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Taz said:

    Rishi Sunak and Tory MPs at risk of election wipe out could keep seats over voter ID confusion, poll suggests
    https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-and-tory-mps-at-risk-of-election-wipe-out-could-keep-seats-over-voter-id-confusion-poll-suggests-13112590

    Was the actual polling done by a reputable pollster, all I can see in the article is it is based on something from the hardly impartial group "Best For Britain".
    Survation.

    From the Best for Britain site:-
    The massive Best for Britain MRP poll of more than 15,000 people undertaken by Survation found that 16% of respondents don’t know about new voter ID rules suggesting that around 5 million voters could be turned away when they try to cast their vote in the upcoming local and General Elections with 1.85 million in marginal and ultra marginal seats.
    https://www.bestforbritain.org/5_million_to_be_disenfranchised_voter_id_rules
    Funnily enough, I reckon that's quite good news; I thought it would be much higher than 16%. Once the GE, in particular, is called, I'd expect the opposition parties to drive that figure down to a very low % through a bombardment of messages, particularly aimed at the young.
    I think voter ID could negatively affect turnout in the locals and mayorals, though.
    I also wonder if it will affect young people as disproportionately as we think. They are used to having to produce ID. It is the oldies who don't and are less likely to carry a driving licence/passport around with them.

    Outside London, does everybody have a bus pass now?
    I mean do all over 60s (or is it pensioners? I'm out of the loop on this now!) have a bus pass?
    Good morning.

    60 in London

    State Pension age everywhere else
    tsk, usual little englander mentality,

    60 in Northern Ireland.
    to be fair, I saw your post after I had already posted about the differences re. Scotland. The England and Wales pass cannot be used there.
    An England pass cannot be used in Wales and vice versa. Source:

    https://www.traveline.cymru/faqs/

    This is all totally ridiculous and so is the way London is split from the rest of England. It's a pain in the neck for people who live near the boundaries. I thought there was supposed to be a union. I've no problem with it being administered by devolved bodies, but the actual provision should be universal: if you're resident in Britain and over 60, you get free bus travel.
    We really need to stop these universal benefits to concentrate on those really in need.
    There’s an inconsistency in that comment and an assumption that older people aren’t in need. Perhaps more seriously it can lead to the kind of Norfolk Passmore remark which lends itself to the uncaring attitude of the Right.

    There is perhaps a wider discussion of how pensioners are cared for to include the triple lock and state retirement age. But if it’s going to be discussed it shouldn’t be a carte blanche ‘we need to stop xyz’ but a reflection of how we care for our older people, as indeed how we look after those of tax paying age.

    Some pensioners are in need and we don't do enough for them. Many pensioners are not, either because they are still working or because they have additional pension provision. It is absurd to treat this ever growing segment of our population as if they were all the same, in their Garratt, struggling with keeping the heating on.

    As this segment grows it will be ever more important to be selective in what help they are given. As we have discussed on here before I think that the pension itself should be means tested albeit at a fairly generous level to avoid disincentives to save. Fringe benefits, like TV licences, bus passes, free prescriptions in England, discounts on various tickets etc are an absurd allocation of scarce resources and should stop.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    Donkeys said:

    I see Rollo has been banned. Wasn't there a famously metamorphosing contributor here who wrote about his ancestors including a fierce Viking leader who he said had a battlefield religious conversion? I could have sworn the said leader's name was Rollo.

    The poster however is more likely descended from Charles the Simple.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    Heathener said:

    I don’t think anyone has ever satisfactorily answered Tam Dalyell’s West Lothian Question

    That's because there is no clear answer - as for much in human affairs.

    In any system of hierarchical structure - local government, area government etc - there will be overlaps and contradictions in the powers devolved and retained.

    In the UK, previously, most such contradictions were resolved with a big hammer in Whitehall. With some court cases.

    With the Devolved Administrations, this resolution is now part of the duty of the courts.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,477
    edited April 11
    Cookie said:

    PJH said:

    Heathener said:

    Am I right in thinking that in recent elections evidence showed that the voter ID disproportionately impacted older people rather than young?

    @PJH is right. Young people DO have ID. I don’t know any who don’t. For the reason that you need it so often to buy alcohol or paracetamol etc. and you can be ID checked anytime into your 30’s.

    It’s older folk that may not be savvy with it. I know some for example who haven’t bothered renewing their passports because they don’t intend travelling / or aren’t able. Same with driving.

    60% of young Britons will travel abroad this year, for which you need ID. That figure more than halves past pension age.

    So I think the people who are most likely to be caught out are the older, non-pensioner group. How that impacts voting patterns, I wouldn't like to say! You could make a case for them being more Tory than average (due to age) but maybe also skewed to the poorer groups so maybe impacting Labour after all. More research needed.

    I agree with @NickPalmer that it's a blatant attempt to skew the vote, but I wonder if it might backfire.
    Regardless of who benefits*, I still cleave to the apparently unfashionable view that voter id is the right thing to do. It always struck me as innocuous that for something so important as voting it was essentially taken on trust for who you are. Voter fraud struck me as very very easy to do. The fact that there were few prosecutions for it seems beside the point. Is there anywhere else in the world as relaxed as Great Britain about the identity of voters?
    And yes, I accept that potential fraud through postal voting is the bigger issue. That needs sorting too. But that doesn't mean we should also address this issue.

    All that said, I think the chances of me voting are probably about 50% less with voter id in place. But that's because for me, voting is largely performative: there is no 2024 in which my vote has any impact whatsoever: Labour will win at every level regardless of what I do. So why incovenience myself further by looking through the big drawer for my driving license?

    *Though I think PJH and Nick Palmer are right about who will benefit.
    You have hit on one important reason that in-person voter fraud, specifically personation, is a non-issue. It is simply too difficult to arrange enough fraudulent voters to make a difference without being detected. Postal vote fraud is far easier, running the gamut from granny-farming at the more respectable end all the way to registering hundreds of non-existent voters.

    ETA if you are concerned about fraud in polling stations, then worry not about personation but intimidation and bribery enabled by unofficial tolerance of photography.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,001
    Donkeys said:

    Heathener said:

    The lack of bus pass consistency across the UK has perplexed me for some time. As some of you may know, I spend a fair bit of time in Scotland where the E&W bus pass cannot be used. It’s quite frustrating.

    A United Kingdom that isn’t united, however much @TSE tells us otherwise? ;)

    There'd not be much point in devolution or even local democracy only for all the rules to be the same throughout the land.
    But some things should be (and are) the same: car MOT rules, immigration, age of sexual consent.
    And one of the arts of government is judging what things should be uniform over what scale. I suspect that one of the reasons that the Westminster system is creaking is that it's trying to manage some things that really ought to be sorted locally and some things where deviating from international consistency is more trouble than it's worth.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Heavy bombardment of Ukraine again last night. As usual, the vast majority of targets were civilian infrastructure. And civilians.

    It is unbearable. russia has just struck the Odesa district w ballistic missiles, killing four, including a 10yo girl and injuring seven. One man lost both legs, doctors fight for his life. Ffs, the West has enough Patriots, which were produced to save people, not collect dust
    https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1778102937857765690

    If Sunak really wants to cement a legacy, something undoubtedly good he achieved with his time in office, he’d act unilaterally now to send every spare weapon we can get our hands on to Ukraine. JFDI.

    Bonus points if he can set aside political rivalries, and brings Starmer and Johnson into the programme as well.
    To add, it appears that in recent weeks most countries appears to have replaced actions with discussions with regard to Ukraine, with the possible exception, I hate to say, of the French.

    The Germans are heading for a severe recession, the Americans are more interested in Israel and on domestic spending in an election year, Eastern European countries are more concerned about supporting the Ukranian refugees and have already given much in military aid given their own position, and the Baltics and Finland are concentrating on their own threat from the angry bear.

    Hell, I wouldn’t even mind if Sunak teams up with Macron, that’s how bad the situation is now. Let them announce a new Concorde project, getting everyone together from both countries to quickly get new production lines of Ukranian weapons running.
    There do seem to have been a lot of announcements in recent weeks of Eastern European countries managing to find shells on the global market. That, alongside air defence, seems to be the main need of Ukraine at the moment - ammunition.
    Also air defence, which is just as vital, and in almost equally short supply.

    I've been saying for years that we spend far too much on large capital projects (the fairly useless carriers, for example, or Ajax), and far too little on shells, bombs and missiles of all types.

    A lot of ammo barely obsoletes - look at Russia turning decades old iron bombs as guided glider weapons, or the US 2.75in rocket (originally Korean war vintage) being repurposed as a smart missile:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Precision_Kill_Weapon_System
    Many, many "smart" weapons consist of an old dumb bomb with guidance systems strapped to it.

    EDIT: The problem in Ukraine is that they have (barely) enough advanced air defence to guard major sites. Which is why the Russians are going after civilian targets.
    And apparently, some dumb f***wit in the Biden administration has called Russian oil facilities 'civilian' targets.

    https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/pentagon-calls-russian-oil-refineries-civilian-1712773609.html

    The Americans are not only withholding arms and aid (thanks, Republicans!); the Biden administration is actually making it next-to impossible to fight, let alone win.

    This is the way evil wins.
    American politics is totally broken at the moment, and there’s a whole bunch of other domestic and international distractions that mean Ukraine isn’t leading the news any more. Biden appears worried that American weapons end up used in Russia, or that bombing refiners might cause the oil price to rise ahead of the election. Many of the house Republicans are contrarian for the hell of it, and both parties in Congress are trying to tie unrelated things together for political reasons.

    Europe needs to step up and get on a war footing, just as Russia has started to do. That means getting production of basic weapons running ASAP.

    Come on Rishi, do the right thing and be remembered for something good you did.
    Don't excuse the Republicans for this. *They* are responsible for selling Ukraine down the river.

    It's impossible to support both Ukraine and Republicans.

    Or the Republicans and basic morality.

    I have Moscow Mike and MTG rot in Hell. And the sooner they get there, the better.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,302

    Donkeys said:

    Heathener said:

    The lack of bus pass consistency across the UK has perplexed me for some time. As some of you may know, I spend a fair bit of time in Scotland where the E&W bus pass cannot be used. It’s quite frustrating.

    A United Kingdom that isn’t united, however much @TSE tells us otherwise? ;)

    There'd not be much point in devolution or even local democracy only for all the rules to be the same throughout the land.
    But some things should be (and are) the same: car MOT rules, immigration, age of sexual consent.
    And one of the arts of government is judging what things should be uniform over what scale. I suspect that one of the reasons that the Westminster system is creaking is that it's trying to manage some things that really ought to be sorted locally and some things where deviating from international consistency is more trouble than it's worth.
    You mean we have a hugely over centralised state with too many laws ?

    I could go with that.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    HYUFD said:

    How any Tory can look at the treatment David Cameron has received from Putin-backing Republicans in the US and still want Trump to be President is quite beyond me. The GOP is making it very clear that they hold vital UK security, defence and economic interests in absolute contempt.

    To be fair to Trump, he met Cameron at Mar a Lago only 2 days ago

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/04/09/david-cameron-donald-trump-meeting-florida-ukraine-funding/
    They met but there was no consensus and Trump refused to recognise the urgency and importance of support for Ukraine. He then told his lackey, the Speaker, to not even meet Cameron and he cancelled the meeting like the obedient cur he is.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,273
    malcolmg said:

    Thank you, CF, for another excellent piece on this subject.

    Following this scandal has proved not only enlightening but personally helpful in my own jousts with large organisations in recent years. In my case it has been Gloucestershire Police and British Gas, but it could equally well have been others, and I'm sure PBers will be able to quote their own examples.

    Lessons have been learned, by me at least. Don't accept that they are either competent or honest. Do not accept what you know not to be true, even if it is offered as a compromise deal. Fight your corner, and if possible, connect with others who have been mistreated.

    I'm still hoping to see prosecutions in the PO case. Although part of me feels some sympathy with Vennels - how does she sleep nights? - I think we have to see her and her colleagues in the dock if the message is ever to get through to the senior management of large organisations that they are not immune, however well-connected they may be. If that can be demonstrated in the PO case, there is some hope that others will truly learn lessons.

    I am not holding my breath but I remain hopeful. Your efforts, and those of other like you, Ms CF, nurture that hope.

    Peter, nice thoughts but Vennels will be enjoying her millions and believing she has been badly treated by a bunch of oicks. These people have no shame and believe they are always right.
    This is Mrs Ptp's view, Malc. She thinks Vennels and her ilk are shameless.

    It is certainly a perfectly reasonable and defensible view.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,217
    edited April 11
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Heavy bombardment of Ukraine again last night. As usual, the vast majority of targets were civilian infrastructure. And civilians.

    It is unbearable. russia has just struck the Odesa district w ballistic missiles, killing four, including a 10yo girl and injuring seven. One man lost both legs, doctors fight for his life. Ffs, the West has enough Patriots, which were produced to save people, not collect dust
    https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1778102937857765690

    If Sunak really wants to cement a legacy, something undoubtedly good he achieved with his time in office, he’d act unilaterally now to send every spare weapon we can get our hands on to Ukraine. JFDI.

    Bonus points if he can set aside political rivalries, and brings Starmer and Johnson into the programme as well.
    To add, it appears that in recent weeks most countries appears to have replaced actions with discussions with regard to Ukraine, with the possible exception, I hate to say, of the French.

    The Germans are heading for a severe recession, the Americans are more interested in Israel and on domestic spending in an election year, Eastern European countries are more concerned about supporting the Ukranian refugees and have already given much in military aid given their own position, and the Baltics and Finland are concentrating on their own threat from the angry bear.

    Hell, I wouldn’t even mind if Sunak teams up with Macron, that’s how bad the situation is now. Let them announce a new Concorde project, getting everyone together from both countries to quickly get new production lines of Ukranian weapons running.
    There do seem to have been a lot of announcements in recent weeks of Eastern European countries managing to find shells on the global market. That, alongside air defence, seems to be the main need of Ukraine at the moment - ammunition.
    Also air defence, which is just as vital, and in almost equally short supply.

    I've been saying for years that we spend far too much on large capital projects (the fairly useless carriers, for example, or Ajax), and far too little on shells, bombs and missiles of all types.

    A lot of ammo barely obsoletes - look at Russia turning decades old iron bombs as guided glider weapons, or the US 2.75in rocket (originally Korean war vintage) being repurposed as a smart missile:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Precision_Kill_Weapon_System
    Many, many "smart" weapons consist of an old dumb bomb with guidance systems strapped to it.

    EDIT: The problem in Ukraine is that they have (barely) enough advanced air defence to guard major sites. Which is why the Russians are going after civilian targets.
    And apparently, some dumb f***wit in the Biden administration has called Russian oil facilities 'civilian' targets.

    https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/pentagon-calls-russian-oil-refineries-civilian-1712773609.html

    The Americans are not only withholding arms and aid (thanks, Republicans!); the Biden administration is actually making it next-to impossible to fight, let alone win.

    This is the way evil wins.
    American politics is totally broken at the moment, and there’s a whole bunch of other domestic and international distractions that mean Ukraine isn’t leading the news any more. Biden appears worried that American weapons end up used in Russia, or that bombing refineries might cause the oil price to rise ahead of the election. Many of the house Republicans are contrarian for the hell of it, and both parties in Congress are trying to tie unrelated things together for political reasons.

    Europe needs to step up and get on a war footing, just as Russia has started to do. That means getting production of basic weapons running ASAP.

    Come on Rishi, do the right thing and be remembered for something good you did.
    As Joseph Borell noted yesterday, dealing with the consequences of a Ukrainian defeat would likely be a great deal more costly and difficult for Europe than is preventing that defeat.

    That ought to have been clear two years ago, but better late than never.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,302
    edited April 11
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    How any Tory can look at the treatment David Cameron has received from Putin-backing Republicans in the US and still want Trump to be President is quite beyond me. The GOP is making it very clear that they hold vital UK security, defence and economic interests in absolute contempt.

    To be fair to Trump, he met Cameron at Mar a Lago only 2 days ago

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/04/09/david-cameron-donald-trump-meeting-florida-ukraine-funding/
    They met but there was no consensus and Trump refused to recognise the urgency and importance of support for Ukraine. He then told his lackey, the Speaker, to not even meet Cameron and he cancelled the meeting like the obedient cur he is.
    Maybe Cameron would have had a better chance if he hadnt stripped UK forces to the bone.

    It would be like sending Angela Merkel to the UK to say we shouldnt buy russian gas.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,273

    Thank you, CF, for another excellent piece on this subject.

    Following this scandal has proved not only enlightening but personally helpful in my own jousts with large organisations in recent years. In my case it has been Gloucestershire Police and British Gas, but it could equally well have been others, and I'm sure PBers will be able to quote their own examples.

    Lessons have been learned, by me at least. Don't accept that they are either competent or honest. Do not accept what you know not to be true, even if it is offered as a compromise deal. Fight your corner, and if possible, connect with others who have been mistreated.

    I'm still hoping to see prosecutions in the PO case. Although part of me feels some sympathy with Vennels - how does she sleep nights? - I think we have to see her and her colleagues in the dock if the message is ever to get through to the senior management of large organisations that they are not immune, however well-connected they may be. If that can be demonstrated in the PO case, there is some hope that others will truly learn lessons.

    I am not holding my breath but I remain hopeful. Your efforts, and those of other like you, Ms CF, nurture that hope.

    How does Vennels et al sleep at night?

    I suggest you find some gloss magazine interviews with some Big Cheese(s) a couple of years downstream from the Big Scandal.

    In a spread, which often contains shots of nice country house in summer, Our Victim explains how he/she was Victimised. Despite being a super achiever, somehow they got saddled with the responsibility they were legally responsible for.

    It was a hard time. Maybe even a stay at the posh end of Priory Chain. But he/she found another 6 figure job, where he/she is Doing Good Work for The Public Benefit.

    In every such story, what is missing?
    Very possibly, M, although in the case of Vennels (and possibly her friend, Et Al) I suspect the Priory visit will have to wait until she's out of chokey.

    After yesterday's evidence from Sir Anthony Hooper, it's hard to see how she dodges a stretch.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 636
    Heathener said:

    Incidentally, whilst you can tap your freedom (bus) pass in London you cannot do that with a non-London bus pass. You have to wave it at the driver. It won’t work if tapped, even though tapping it is how it works outside London … until you reach the border with Wales and Scotland.

    Presumably if you catch a bus that crosses the border of this non-union, union, you can use it but not if you use it for the return leg.

    Just to add to the bizarre confusion.

    I now have an image of a pensioner catching a bus from Lydney to Chepstow and having to get out at the Wye Bridge and walk the rest of the way!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,973
    Good morning fellow feudal subjects.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/apr/11/courtier-demanded-assurance-king-could-not-be-prosecuted-under-new-welsh-law

    Now, silly me, but I had the impression that one of the causes of the Civil War was to ensure that the Law was above the Monarch, rather than the Monarch above the Law. Where did it all go wrong?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    Heathener said:

    I don’t think anyone has ever satisfactorily answered Tam Dalyell’s West Lothian Question

    The West Lothian question is really only relevant if we have a government which is depending upon Scottish seats to have a majority in the House of Commons. That means they need to have more than half the Scottish seats. We obviously have not had that for the last 14 years (although May was presumably grateful for the increase in Scottish Tories in 2015) and it wasn't particularly relevant during the Blair majorities either.

    It looks somewhat unlikely to me that the Scottish Labour MPs are going to be the extent of Starmer's majority although I suppose that is still possible. If that occurs the question will return.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 636
    DavidL said:

    Heathener said:

    DavidL said:

    Donkeys said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Taz said:

    Rishi Sunak and Tory MPs at risk of election wipe out could keep seats over voter ID confusion, poll suggests
    https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-and-tory-mps-at-risk-of-election-wipe-out-could-keep-seats-over-voter-id-confusion-poll-suggests-13112590

    Was the actual polling done by a reputable pollster, all I can see in the article is it is based on something from the hardly impartial group "Best For Britain".
    Survation.

    From the Best for Britain site:-
    The massive Best for Britain MRP poll of more than 15,000 people undertaken by Survation found that 16% of respondents don’t know about new voter ID rules suggesting that around 5 million voters could be turned away when they try to cast their vote in the upcoming local and General Elections with 1.85 million in marginal and ultra marginal seats.
    https://www.bestforbritain.org/5_million_to_be_disenfranchised_voter_id_rules
    Funnily enough, I reckon that's quite good news; I thought it would be much higher than 16%. Once the GE, in particular, is called, I'd expect the opposition parties to drive that figure down to a very low % through a bombardment of messages, particularly aimed at the young.
    I think voter ID could negatively affect turnout in the locals and mayorals, though.
    I also wonder if it will affect young people as disproportionately as we think. They are used to having to produce ID. It is the oldies who don't and are less likely to carry a driving licence/passport around with them.

    Outside London, does everybody have a bus pass now?
    I mean do all over 60s (or is it pensioners? I'm out of the loop on this now!) have a bus pass?
    Good morning.

    60 in London

    State Pension age everywhere else
    tsk, usual little englander mentality,

    60 in Northern Ireland.
    to be fair, I saw your post after I had already posted about the differences re. Scotland. The England and Wales pass cannot be used there.
    An England pass cannot be used in Wales and vice versa. Source:

    https://www.traveline.cymru/faqs/

    This is all totally ridiculous and so is the way London is split from the rest of England. It's a pain in the neck for people who live near the boundaries. I thought there was supposed to be a union. I've no problem with it being administered by devolved bodies, but the actual provision should be universal: if you're resident in Britain and over 60, you get free bus travel.
    We really need to stop these universal benefits to concentrate on those really in need.
    There’s an inconsistency in that comment and an assumption that older people aren’t in need. Perhaps more seriously it can lead to the kind of Norfolk Passmore remark which lends itself to the uncaring attitude of the Right.

    There is perhaps a wider discussion of how pensioners are cared for to include the triple lock and state retirement age. But if it’s going to be discussed it shouldn’t be a carte blanche ‘we need to stop xyz’ but a reflection of how we care for our older people, as indeed how we look after those of tax paying age.

    Some pensioners are in need and we don't do enough for them. Many pensioners are not, either because they are still working or because they have additional pension provision. It is absurd to treat this ever growing segment of our population as if they were all the same, in their Garratt, struggling with keeping the heating on.

    As this segment grows it will be ever more important to be selective in what help they are given. As we have discussed on here before I think that the pension itself should be means tested albeit at a fairly generous level to avoid disincentives to save. Fringe benefits, like TV licences, bus passes, free prescriptions in England, discounts on various tickets etc are an absurd allocation of scarce resources and should stop.
    And by the same token there are many non-pensioners who are in need, but don't get free travel.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,217
    You’ll Never Guess Which State Court Just Approved Religious Exemptions From Abortion Bans

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2024/04/indiana-abortion-ban-religious-exemption-judaism-faith.html
    ..A three-judge panel on the Indiana Court of Appeals agreed to enjoin Indiana’s near-total abortion ban, as applied against a class of religious plaintiffs who had argued that the ban violates a state law protecting religious freedom. In its unanimous 76-page opinion, authored by Judge Leanna K. Weissmann, the panel determined that a preliminary injunction granted to a group of plaintiffs who had alleged that Indiana’s abortion law violated their rights under the state’s Religious Freedom Restoration Act could remain in place. The case now proceeds to trial, or more likely to a direct appeal to the state Supreme Court...

    The fundamentalist Christian right seems to have forgotten the existence of other religious in rewriting the state's laws.

    If you read the details of the ruling, its logic is unassailable.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,770

    Thank you, CF, for another excellent piece on this subject.

    Following this scandal has proved not only enlightening but personally helpful in my own jousts with large organisations in recent years. In my case it has been Gloucestershire Police and British Gas, but it could equally well have been others, and I'm sure PBers will be able to quote their own examples.

    Lessons have been learned, by me at least. Don't accept that they are either competent or honest. Do not accept what you know not to be true, even if it is offered as a compromise deal. Fight your corner, and if possible, connect with others who have been mistreated.

    I'm still hoping to see prosecutions in the PO case. Although part of me feels some sympathy with Vennels - how does she sleep nights? - I think we have to see her and her colleagues in the dock if the message is ever to get through to the senior management of large organisations that they are not immune, however well-connected they may be. If that can be demonstrated in the PO case, there is some hope that others will truly learn lessons.

    I am not holding my breath but I remain hopeful. Your efforts, and those of other like you, Ms CF, nurture that hope.

    How does Vennels et al sleep at night?

    I suggest you find some gloss magazine interviews with some Big Cheese(s) a couple of years downstream from the Big Scandal.

    In a spread, which often contains shots of nice country house in summer, Our Victim explains how he/she was Victimised. Despite being a super achiever, somehow they got saddled with the responsibility they were legally responsible for.

    It was a hard time. Maybe even a stay at the posh end of Priory Chain. But he/she found another 6 figure job, where he/she is Doing Good Work for The Public Benefit.

    In every such story, what is missing?
    Very possibly, M, although in the case of Vennels (and possibly her friend, Et Al) I suspect the Priory visit will have to wait until she's out of chokey.

    After yesterday's evidence from Sir Anthony Hooper, it's hard to see how she dodges a stretch.
    What I don't understand is why she hasn't already been arrested. As you say, there appears to be enough information already in the public domain for a prima facie case, so why the delay? I don't see how waiting until after the inquiry finishes is just?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,273
    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    Great header. I think there will be prosecutions. I certainly hope there are. I also hope we don't see all the vitriol funnelled onto the one figure of Paula Vennells.

    DavidL said:

    I think, slightly uncharacteristically, @Cyclefree is cutting Mr Leighton too much slack here. The Horizon program was not some incidental or side issue for what became Post Office Counters. It was, and remains, the core management tool for the business allowing the business to monitor the hundreds of thousands of remote transactions being carried out on its behalf by hundreds of staff and self employed contractors. Any suggestion that it had some serious flaws which made that information flow inaccurate really went to the heart of the business and the senior management and the Chairman should have been all over it looking for reassurance.

    It is the stunning lack of curiosity and reluctance to glance under the bonnet even when some rather odd noises were being emitted which frankly makes you wonder whether this was indeed gross neglect or wilful blindness.

    I don't think I am. The reason I wrote this header was precisely because all the focus is on Ms Vennells and not on those in charge earlier under whose leadership this scandal developed. Leighton is in many ways far more responsible since his failure to look into the concerns raised in 2003 was what allowed this to develop into the horror show we have now.

    Vennells inherited the mess. Leighton created it.

    As for this statement - "the senior management and the Chairman should have been all over it looking for reassurance." this is precisely the problem. If you look for reassurance, that is what you will get.

    No - you ask for an investigation into what is being stated and any worthwhile investigator knows that you do not start with preconceptions and conclusions. But that is not what happened here because:-

    (a) Leighton and others did not want to know - like most senior managers. It is people like me who have to make them want to know and it's a bloody hard lonely furrow sometimes and persistent bolshy people prepared to do this are not exactly ten a penny;
    (b) his organisation did not have an investigations or audit or risk team capable of doing the work; and
    (c) everyone was already convinced that subpostmasters were crooks and Horizon was right and when people have such beliefs they cling onto them like a religion in the teeth of any evidence to the contrary.

    Why didn't Leighton want to know? Because the whole focus was on making Royal Mail profitable and fattening it up for privatisation. Imagine putting in your prospectus that your accounting system is shit and you have probably been responsible for the biggest miscarriage of justice in English history. You wouldn't be able to give away the shares.

    That's why ultimate responsibility for this goes right up into government.

    Oh - and Leighton himself, like so many other senior managers, had half a dozen other jobs. So whether he had the time to turn up in the office let alone do any actual work is moot.

    Justice here - in the non-legal sense - would mean taking all of these people from the Chairs down, putting them all in prison right now and letting them argue why they shouldn't remain there for the rest of their lives. Their wealth should be taken and distributed to the subpostmasters.

    I will be Chair of the Panel with the casting vote. I have Sicilian levels of vengefulness.

    May I please be one of your Enforcers?
  • TresTres Posts: 2,671
    PJH said:

    Taz said:

    Rishi Sunak and Tory MPs at risk of election wipe out could keep seats over voter ID confusion, poll suggests
    https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-and-tory-mps-at-risk-of-election-wipe-out-could-keep-seats-over-voter-id-confusion-poll-suggests-13112590

    Was the actual polling done by a reputable pollster, all I can see in the article is it is based on something from the hardly impartial group "Best For Britain".
    Survation.

    From the Best for Britain site:-
    The massive Best for Britain MRP poll of more than 15,000 people undertaken by Survation found that 16% of respondents don’t know about new voter ID rules suggesting that around 5 million voters could be turned away when they try to cast their vote in the upcoming local and General Elections with 1.85 million in marginal and ultra marginal seats.
    https://www.bestforbritain.org/5_million_to_be_disenfranchised_voter_id_rules
    Funnily enough, I reckon that's quite good news; I thought it would be much higher than 16%. Once the GE, in particular, is called, I'd expect the opposition parties to drive that figure down to a very low % through a bombardment of messages, particularly aimed at the young.
    I think voter ID could negatively affect turnout in the locals and mayorals, though.
    I also wonder if it will affect young people as disproportionately as we think. They are used to having to produce ID. It is the oldies who don't and are less likely to carry a driving licence/passport around with them.

    Outside London, does everybody have a bus pass now?
    why have a bus pass when there are no buses?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    Great header. I think there will be prosecutions. I certainly hope there are. I also hope we don't see all the vitriol funnelled onto the one figure of Paula Vennells.

    DavidL said:

    I think, slightly uncharacteristically, @Cyclefree is cutting Mr Leighton too much slack here. The Horizon program was not some incidental or side issue for what became Post Office Counters. It was, and remains, the core management tool for the business allowing the business to monitor the hundreds of thousands of remote transactions being carried out on its behalf by hundreds of staff and self employed contractors. Any suggestion that it had some serious flaws which made that information flow inaccurate really went to the heart of the business and the senior management and the Chairman should have been all over it looking for reassurance.

    It is the stunning lack of curiosity and reluctance to glance under the bonnet even when some rather odd noises were being emitted which frankly makes you wonder whether this was indeed gross neglect or wilful blindness.

    I don't think I am. The reason I wrote this header was precisely because all the focus is on Ms Vennells and not on those in charge earlier under whose leadership this scandal developed. Leighton is in many ways far more responsible since his failure to look into the concerns raised in 2003 was what allowed this to develop into the horror show we have now.

    Vennells inherited the mess. Leighton created it.

    As for this statement - "the senior management and the Chairman should have been all over it looking for reassurance." this is precisely the problem. If you look for reassurance, that is what you will get.

    No - you ask for an investigation into what is being stated and any worthwhile investigator knows that you do not start with preconceptions and conclusions. But that is not what happened here because:-

    (a) Leighton and others did not want to know - like most senior managers. It is people like me who have to make them want to know and it's a bloody hard lonely furrow sometimes and persistent bolshy people prepared to do this are not exactly ten a penny;
    (b) his organisation did not have an investigations or audit or risk team capable of doing the work; and
    (c) everyone was already convinced that subpostmasters were crooks and Horizon was right and when people have such beliefs they cling onto them like a religion in the teeth of any evidence to the contrary.

    Why didn't Leighton want to know? Because the whole focus was on making Royal Mail profitable and fattening it up for privatisation. Imagine putting in your prospectus that your accounting system is shit and you have probably been responsible for the biggest miscarriage of justice in English history. You wouldn't be able to give away the shares.

    That's why ultimate responsibility for this goes right up into government.

    Oh - and Leighton himself, like so many other senior managers, had half a dozen other jobs. So whether he had the time to turn up in the office let alone do any actual work is moot.

    Justice here - in the non-legal sense - would mean taking all of these people from the Chairs down, putting them all in prison right now and letting them argue why they shouldn't remain there for the rest of their lives. Their wealth should be taken and distributed to the subpostmasters.

    I will be Chair of the Panel with the casting vote. I have Sicilian levels of vengefulness.

    I don't know about Sicilian, that's almost Trumpian vengeance!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    PJH said:

    DavidL said:

    Heathener said:

    DavidL said:

    Donkeys said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Taz said:

    Rishi Sunak and Tory MPs at risk of election wipe out could keep seats over voter ID confusion, poll suggests
    https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak-and-tory-mps-at-risk-of-election-wipe-out-could-keep-seats-over-voter-id-confusion-poll-suggests-13112590

    Was the actual polling done by a reputable pollster, all I can see in the article is it is based on something from the hardly impartial group "Best For Britain".
    Survation.

    From the Best for Britain site:-
    The massive Best for Britain MRP poll of more than 15,000 people undertaken by Survation found that 16% of respondents don’t know about new voter ID rules suggesting that around 5 million voters could be turned away when they try to cast their vote in the upcoming local and General Elections with 1.85 million in marginal and ultra marginal seats.
    https://www.bestforbritain.org/5_million_to_be_disenfranchised_voter_id_rules
    Funnily enough, I reckon that's quite good news; I thought it would be much higher than 16%. Once the GE, in particular, is called, I'd expect the opposition parties to drive that figure down to a very low % through a bombardment of messages, particularly aimed at the young.
    I think voter ID could negatively affect turnout in the locals and mayorals, though.
    I also wonder if it will affect young people as disproportionately as we think. They are used to having to produce ID. It is the oldies who don't and are less likely to carry a driving licence/passport around with them.

    Outside London, does everybody have a bus pass now?
    I mean do all over 60s (or is it pensioners? I'm out of the loop on this now!) have a bus pass?
    Good morning.

    60 in London

    State Pension age everywhere else
    tsk, usual little englander mentality,

    60 in Northern Ireland.
    to be fair, I saw your post after I had already posted about the differences re. Scotland. The England and Wales pass cannot be used there.
    An England pass cannot be used in Wales and vice versa. Source:

    https://www.traveline.cymru/faqs/

    This is all totally ridiculous and so is the way London is split from the rest of England. It's a pain in the neck for people who live near the boundaries. I thought there was supposed to be a union. I've no problem with it being administered by devolved bodies, but the actual provision should be universal: if you're resident in Britain and over 60, you get free bus travel.
    We really need to stop these universal benefits to concentrate on those really in need.
    There’s an inconsistency in that comment and an assumption that older people aren’t in need. Perhaps more seriously it can lead to the kind of Norfolk Passmore remark which lends itself to the uncaring attitude of the Right.

    There is perhaps a wider discussion of how pensioners are cared for to include the triple lock and state retirement age. But if it’s going to be discussed it shouldn’t be a carte blanche ‘we need to stop xyz’ but a reflection of how we care for our older people, as indeed how we look after those of tax paying age.

    Some pensioners are in need and we don't do enough for them. Many pensioners are not, either because they are still working or because they have additional pension provision. It is absurd to treat this ever growing segment of our population as if they were all the same, in their Garratt, struggling with keeping the heating on.

    As this segment grows it will be ever more important to be selective in what help they are given. As we have discussed on here before I think that the pension itself should be means tested albeit at a fairly generous level to avoid disincentives to save. Fringe benefits, like TV licences, bus passes, free prescriptions in England, discounts on various tickets etc are an absurd allocation of scarce resources and should stop.
    And by the same token there are many non-pensioners who are in need, but don't get free travel.
    Absolutely, and as a consequence of fiscal drag, more and more of them are paying taxes to fund these universal benefits to people massively better off than they are.
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