politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on the afternoon before the big by-election
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on the afternoon before the big by-election
Reminder. Next PB gathering this Friday Nov 21 - the day after Rochester. Usual place - Dirty Dicks opposite Liverpool Street station London from 1830. We are on the first floor right at the back of the pub.
Comments
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First?0
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Disappinted to see that single LibDem humbug in there!0
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FPT:
That'll only be acceptable if everyone drives on the left, and uses the (clearly superior) British plug.SandyRentool said:Four decades in the EU, and we still have different plugs and sockets - so much for harmonisation. And when do we switch to driving on the right so they don't need to make 2 versions of every car?
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Expected Result : "UKIP hold, so no change there."0
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LOVE IT !0
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F1: Bianchi's out of a coma, and breathing unaided.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/301203170 -
Twenty years ago this would have been a parody in Viz.. now its real life at Oxford University
"A protest group of around 300 people called “What the f**k is 'Abortion Culture'?” appeared on Facebook that promised to “take along some non-destructive but oh so disruptive instruments to help demonstrate to the anti-choicers just what we think of their 'debate'.” We were guilty of promoting "really sh*tty anti-choice rhetoric and probs some cissexism." The foul language indicates how sophisticated the protesters were, while the accusation of cissexism had me reaching for my online urban dictionary. Was I being called a sissy by homophobic feminists? Mais non. Apparently a “cis” is someone who identifies with the same gender that they were born with. So that’s a thing now.
The university’s students’ union also issued a statement that took aim at Brendan and me for being so offensively attached to our God-given genitals: “The Women’s Campaign (WomCam) condemn SFL for holding this debate. It is absurd to think we should be listening to two cisgender men debate about what people with uteruses should be doing with their bodies.” "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11239437/Oxford-students-shut-down-abortion-debate.-Free-speech-is-under-assault-on-campus.html0 -
Brilliant cartoon, Marf! Love the sweet jars!0
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You are "Reckless"!RobD said:First?
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FPT: Someone posted a link to a 2004 thread - but I was struck by the adjacent thread. One YouGov a month, and UKIP a "big issue" at 5%.
YouGov shows Labour lead down to 3%
November 26th, 2004
Slightly better news for Michael Howard
After the NOP and ICM polls showing Labour leads of 8-9% this month’s YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph has the margin dropping to just 3%. The figures are:-
LAB 35% (-1): CON 32% (n/c): LD 23% (+1): UKIP 5% (n/c)
Compared with the YouGov poll at the start of October the Labour lead has been halved. Today’s poll is also good news for the Lib Dems with it returning to its highest share of the year from the pollster.
[...]
Today’s poll shows the impact that UKIP continues to have on the Tories and this is where, we believe the election will be decided. If UKIP remains at 4-5% then the Tories will continue to struggle and Labour will win a substantial majority.
If Michael Howard and his Australian Campaign Director, Lynton Crosby, can find a way of dealing with the UKIP issue then the outcome will be much closer. They might take some comfort in the fact that YouGov, when tested, does over-state UKIP significantly.
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2004/11/26/yougov-shows-labour-lead-down-to-3/0 -
Meet Rochester Man, the Conservative's Worst Nightmare
"Rochester Man is normal. Very normal. And for the Conservatives, that’s a big problem.
The trouble with Rochester and Strood, site of a parliamentary by-election on Thursday, is that it is not unusual. Rochester Man doesn't just live in Rochester. He lives in lots of places. Lots of constituencies.
Douglas Carswell's huge Ukip by-election victory in Clacton-on-Sea last month could be written off as a freak event in a very unusual seat. Clacton has the largest concentration in the UK of voters from the group that leans most towards Ukip: older, poorly-qualified, white working-class voters.
Because Clacton was unusual, the Conservatives could reassure themselves, and the media, that Ukip would struggle to repeat the its electoral success in more “normal” constituencies.
That argument will not be tenable if Mark Reckless follows Mr Carswell back into Parliament at his by-election in Rochester. "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11229398/Meet-Rochester-Man-the-Conservatives-worst-nightmare.html0 -
Must be Mark Senior's.Patrick said:Disappinted to see that single LibDem humbug in there!
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Logical enough, as we have heard so much of transsexualism. One thinks of Gallia Cisalpina and transalpine Gaul.isam said:Twenty years ago this would have been a parody in Viz.. now its real life at Oxford University
"A protest group of around 300 people called “What the f**k is 'Abortion Culture'?” appeared on Facebook that promised to “take along some non-destructive but oh so disruptive instruments to help demonstrate to the anti-choicers just what we think of their 'debate'.” We were guilty of promoting "really sh*tty anti-choice rhetoric and probs some cissexism." The foul language indicates how sophisticated the protesters were, while the accusation of cissexism had me reaching for my online urban dictionary. Was I being called a sissy by homophobic feminists? Mais non. Apparently a “cis” is someone who identifies with the same gender that they were born with. So that’s a thing now.
The university’s students’ union also issued a statement that took aim at Brendan and me for being so offensively attached to our God-given genitals: “The Women’s Campaign (WomCam) condemn SFL for holding this debate. It is absurd to think we should be listening to two cisgender men debate about what people with uteruses should be doing with their bodies.” "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11239437/Oxford-students-shut-down-abortion-debate.-Free-speech-is-under-assault-on-campus.html
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Mr. Isam, I encountered the unusual cisgender term on Twitter. The way to recall is to compare trans- and cisgender with Trans- and Cisalpine Gaul.
I must admit, it seems a bit of an unnecessary term, almost like inventing a word for people who aren't scared of water as a contrast to hydrophobe.0 -
As it said in the Guardian a couple of days ago: Feminism is in danger of becoming toxicisam said:Twenty years ago this would have been a parody in Viz.. now its real life at Oxford University
....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11239437/Oxford-students-shut-down-abortion-debate.-Free-speech-is-under-assault-on-campus.html
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/nov/18/feminism-rosetta-scientist-shirt-dapper-laughs-julien-blanc-inequality0 -
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Arf – very clever Marf - love the sweetie jars and the lonesome yellow humbug….0
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FPT (and corrected):
The American's feel patriotic about NASA because its the National Aeronautics & Space Administration. The problem with Europe is it has no demos and no democracy, the population dont feel they are one people, and they dont feel they are in control of their European destiny, they feel is a sump for a very large amount of money which is used to subsidize what seems to them to be undeserving causes. A not untypical comment I hear when talking to people about the EU is "Charity begins at home", its the same reason the government is going to have an uphill task persuading anyone of the merits of its large aid budget taking in countries which have space programs when we dont (linking back to NASA again!)0 -
At least English is an official language of the EU! Eligible for Commonwealth memebershipRobD said:FPT:
That'll only be acceptable if everyone drives on the left, and uses the (clearly superior) British plug.SandyRentool said:Four decades in the EU, and we still have different plugs and sockets - so much for harmonisation. And when do we switch to driving on the right so they don't need to make 2 versions of every car?
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If he did, I'm sure I could fashion my doctoral robes into something like this:bigjohnowls said:
http://i.imgur.com/FTFCgHH.png0 -
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So Yoda was saying I have a fat arse?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Now I'm offended
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Don;t envy Dave this week. A shellacking. Defectors waiting in the wings. sheesh.0
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Just so long as we dont all have to sit through another round of bullshit about how he is listening to the public, and how they need to get their message across more clearly, and how the long term plan is going to save the economy. Because he isn't, they won't, and it can't!taffys said:Don;t envy Dave this week. A shellacking. Defectors waiting in the wings. sheesh.
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Aid to India = £300 million p.a.Indigo said:FPT (and corrected):
The American's feel patriotic about NASA because its the National Aeronautics & Space Administration. The problem with Europe is it has no demos and no democracy, the population dont feel they are one people, and they dont feel they are in control of their European destiny, they feel is a sump for a very large amount of money which is used to subsidize what seems to them to be undeserving causes. A not untypical comment I hear when talking to people about the EU is "Charity begins at home", its the same reason the government is going to have an uphill task persuading anyone of the merits of its large aid budget taking in countries which have space programs when we dont (linking back to NASA again!)
Net aid to the EU = £10,000 million p.a. 0 -
Mr. Indigo, I fear your hope will prove vain.
On the plus side, there's a title-deciding race in Abu Dhabi to look forward to. Hopefully Rosberg will snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.0 -
I think Dave will shake off the shellacking..and get on with the job..0
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O/T I don't know if anyone read the news item in the Times about how Seals like to rape King Penguins.
Scientists initially wondered if this was because Seals mistook King Penguins for other seals, but decided this couldn't be the case, because:-
a) Seals don't look King Penguins
b) After they've done the nasty, the Seals eat the King Penguins.
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Which like saying cutting your finger off and giving it to India is an improvement on cutting your arm off and giving it to Brussels!Sunil_Prasannan said:Aid to India = £300 million p.a.
Net aid to the EU = £10,000 million p.a.
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FPT John O, yes, Brian Coleman joining UKIP would be a nightmare.0 -
It gives a whole new angle to the "blown a seal" joke.Sean_F said:
O/T I don't know if anyone read the news item in the Times about how Seals like to rape King Penguins.
Scientists initially wondered if this was because Seals mistook King Penguins for other seals, but decided this couldn't be the case, because:-
a) Seals don't look King Penguins
b) After they've done the nasty, the Seals eat the King Penguins.0 -
@kiranstacey: Fascinating Survation poll in Stockton South - Ukip up 15 points since 2010 - none of which has come fro the Tories: http://t.co/H0evhCnRT50
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Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Indigo, I fear your hope will prove vain.
One vote going free to the first party that treats me like an adult and tells us how it really is, and what the choices are. Preferably one that stays away from the same old platitudes and nostrums. I am sure Nige is getting a load of votes because people think he is more authentic (he probably isn't, but the illusion works), and dont get the continuous impression of being treated like a mushroom.
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F*cking Penguins?Sean_F said:
O/T I don't know if anyone read the news item in the Times about how Seals like to rape King Penguins.
Scientists initially wondered if this was because Seals mistook King Penguins for other seals, but decided this couldn't be the case, because:-
a) Seals don't look King Penguins
b) After they've done the nasty, the Seals eat the King Penguins.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dg0vizpfB7k0 -
Stockton South is now a Tory Hold?Scott_P said:@kiranstacey: Fascinating Survation poll in Stockton South - Ukip up 15 points since 2010 - none of which has come fro the Tories: http://t.co/H0evhCnRT5
That's Labour Target 7.0 -
The Conservatives are 9/4 in that seat with Paddy Power.Scott_P said:@kiranstacey: Fascinating Survation poll in Stockton South - Ukip up 15 points since 2010 - none of which has come fro the Tories: http://t.co/H0evhCnRT5
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Fascinating Survation poll in Stockton South - Ukip up 15 points since 2010 - none of which has come fro the Tories
If I read that correctly, the cons would actually hold the seat despite the UKIP surge.0 -
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Last Ashcroft poll had it:chestnut said:
Stockton South is now a Tory Hold?Scott_P said:@kiranstacey: Fascinating Survation poll in Stockton South - Ukip up 15 points since 2010 - none of which has come fro the Tories: http://t.co/H0evhCnRT5
That's Labour Target 7.
CON 35, LAB 38, UKIP 19, LD 4
Survation has it:
CON 39, LAB 37, UKIP 18, LD 3
Pretty similar numbers, lets say too close to call.0 -
Mr. Indigo, the most impressive party political I saw for the European elections was from the Pirate Party, but I don't think they stood in my region.
As it is, my plan remains to do my best to thwart the prospect of Balls holding his seat, though I suspect it'll prove a vain endeavour.0 -
Afternoon all and do any of you think the Labour vote could fall below 10% at Rochester tomorrow?0
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Very interesting:
Britain Elects
@britainelects
Stockton South constituency poll (Survation):
CON - 39% (-)
LAB - 37% (-1)
UKIP - 18% (+15)
GRN - 3% (+3)
LDEM - 3% (-12)0 -
Who was it that said Nicky Morgan was a good minister ?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2840796/Rural-school-denied-grade-Ofsted-inspectors-s-English-not-diverse-enough.html
"Rural school is denied top grade by Ofsted inspectors because it's 'too English' and not diverse enough"
Total Idiocy.
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Totes Amazeballs!!Scott_P said:@kiranstacey: Fascinating Survation poll in Stockton South - Ukip up 15 points since 2010 - none of which has come fro the Tories: http://t.co/H0evhCnRT5
Except 35% of it came from 2010 Tories0 -
I'll happily bet at 9/4 on a coin toss.Speedy said:
Last Ashcroft poll had it:chestnut said:
Stockton South is now a Tory Hold?Scott_P said:@kiranstacey: Fascinating Survation poll in Stockton South - Ukip up 15 points since 2010 - none of which has come fro the Tories: http://t.co/H0evhCnRT5
That's Labour Target 7.
CON 35, LAB 38, UKIP 19, LD 4
Survation has it:
CON 39, LAB 37, UKIP 18, LD 3
Pretty similar numbers, lets say too close to call.0 -
If it falls bellow 10% any of these two can happen:Easterross said:Afternoon all and do any of you think the Labour vote could fall below 10% at Rochester tomorrow?
Greens beating Labour.
Or UKIP with a majority greater than 10000.0 -
I'm pretty sure nothing really gets through that carapace of unwarranted self regard. He will probably congratulate himself on further detoxifying the party.taffys said:Don;t envy Dave this week. A shellacking. Defectors waiting in the wings. sheesh.
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On topic -poor Lib Dems with their single gobstopper.0
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There's a mahoosive typo/mistake in the Survation release.
Anyone else spotted it?0 -
It's certainly total idiocy to blame Nicky Morgan for an individual decision that will have been made about 10,000 grades below her.Indigo said:Who was it that said Nicky Morgan was a good minister ?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2840796/Rural-school-denied-grade-Ofsted-inspectors-s-English-not-diverse-enough.html
"Rural school is denied top grade by Ofsted inspectors because it's 'too English' and not diverse enough"
Total Idiocy.0 -
Ashcroft sampled Stockton between 26/6 and 4/7. The new numbers are broadly consistent with the Lab-Con swingback since then.
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Most interesting thing, the Tories replace exactly the amount they are losing to UKIP with the LD, thanks to no 2010 LD going to UKIP:Easterross said:Very interesting:
Britain Elects
@britainelects
Stockton South constituency poll (Survation):
CON - 39% (-)
LAB - 37% (-1)
UKIP - 18% (+15)
GRN - 3% (+3)
LDEM - 3% (-12)
CON: 79% 2010 CON, 5% 2010 LAB, 25% 2010 LD
UKIP: 16% 2010 CON, 12% 2010 LAB, 3% 2010 LD0 -
The sexual life of a fur seal is stranger than anyone thinks,Sean_F said:
O/T I don't know if anyone read the news item in the Times about how Seals like to rape King Penguins.
Scientists initially wondered if this was because Seals mistook King Penguins for other seals, but decided this couldn't be the case, because:-
a) Seals don't look King Penguins
b) After they've done the nasty, the Seals eat the King Penguins.
at the height of the mating season it tries to roger a king penguin....
naw - sphinx.
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The fact that Survation carrying out a poll for UNITE has the Tories ahead in one of its most marginal seats must give heart to a number of Tory MPs.antifrank said:
I'll happily bet at 9/4 on a coin toss.Speedy said:
Last Ashcroft poll had it:chestnut said:
Stockton South is now a Tory Hold?Scott_P said:@kiranstacey: Fascinating Survation poll in Stockton South - Ukip up 15 points since 2010 - none of which has come fro the Tories: http://t.co/H0evhCnRT5
That's Labour Target 7.
CON 35, LAB 38, UKIP 19, LD 4
Survation has it:
CON 39, LAB 37, UKIP 18, LD 3
Pretty similar numbers, lets say too close to call.0 -
38% undecided in that Survation poll seems very high.0
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Most interesting -remember that a lot of Ashcroft' s earlier polls are now out of date. However, if Labour missed this they'd certainly not be on course to win next year. One awaits Big John Owls Baxtering with amusement.Speedy said:
Most interesting thing, the Tories replace exactly the amount they are losing to UKIP with the LD, thanks to no 2010 LD going to UKIP:Easterross said:Very interesting:
Britain Elects
@britainelects
Stockton South constituency poll (Survation):
CON - 39% (-)
LAB - 37% (-1)
UKIP - 18% (+15)
GRN - 3% (+3)
LDEM - 3% (-12)
CON: 79% 2010 CON, 5% 2010 LAB, 25% 2010 LD
UKIP: 16% 2010 CON, 12% 2010 LAB, 3% 2010 LD0 -
Nothing like a politician for self-kidology. Tories 10 point below where they were two years ago, so obviously the detoxification is working. When he has the party down to the bedrock with a 10% vote, he will do doubt consider it has been purified. Roger would approve, much better to be pure in opposition that be affected by the trappings of government as we heard earlier.Luckyguy1983 said:
I'm pretty sure nothing really gets through that carapace of unwarranted self regard. He will probably congratulate himself on further detoxifying the party.taffys said:Don;t envy Dave this week. A shellacking. Defectors waiting in the wings. sheesh.
I dont think many UKIP voters particularly like Farage or his policies, but what they feel more than anything else at the moment is a burning contempt for the political classes, they feel the augean stables are in need of a damn good cleaning. Which is why UKIP are immune to challenges on their policies, no one cares what they are, they just want to see Dave lose the elections and the tories implode, and then Ed try and run a socialist government in the teeth of a record deficit and impending economic storm, shortly followed by Labour imploding as well. After a couple of beers I can see the appeal.0 -
Also of interest here is the LD score. They could be the big story next May and not in a good way.Speedy said:
Most interesting thing, the Tories replace exactly the amount they are losing to UKIP with the LD, thanks to no 2010 LD going to UKIP:Easterross said:Very interesting:
Britain Elects
@britainelects
Stockton South constituency poll (Survation):
CON - 39% (-)
LAB - 37% (-1)
UKIP - 18% (+15)
GRN - 3% (+3)
LDEM - 3% (-12)
CON: 79% 2010 CON, 5% 2010 LAB, 25% 2010 LD
UKIP: 16% 2010 CON, 12% 2010 LAB, 3% 2010 LD0 -
Based on policies she set. Politicians set policies, officials carry them out, the buck stops on her desk.antifrank said:
It's certainly total idiocy to blame Nicky Morgan for an individual decision that will have been made about 10,000 grades below her.Indigo said:Who was it that said Nicky Morgan was a good minister ?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2840796/Rural-school-denied-grade-Ofsted-inspectors-s-English-not-diverse-enough.html
"Rural school is denied top grade by Ofsted inspectors because it's 'too English' and not diverse enough"
Total Idiocy.
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Er, hydrophile?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Isam, I encountered the unusual cisgender term on Twitter. The way to recall is to compare trans- and cisgender with Trans- and Cisalpine Gaul.
I must admit, it seems a bit of an unnecessary term, almost like inventing a word for people who aren't scared of water as a contrast to hydrophobe.
The thing about cis/trans is that the term "cis" already existed, as you point out, it's simply its use in relation to gender that is new.0 -
They could not win Stockton South and win the other 37 Tory marginals that Labour is ahead in the constituency polls.felix said:
Most interesting -remember that a lot of Ashcroft' s earlier polls are now out of date. However, if Labour missed this they'd certainly not be on course to win next year. One awaits Big John Owls Baxtering with amusement.Speedy said:
Most interesting thing, the Tories replace exactly the amount they are losing to UKIP with the LD, thanks to no 2010 LD going to UKIP:Easterross said:Very interesting:
Britain Elects
@britainelects
Stockton South constituency poll (Survation):
CON - 39% (-)
LAB - 37% (-1)
UKIP - 18% (+15)
GRN - 3% (+3)
LDEM - 3% (-12)
CON: 79% 2010 CON, 5% 2010 LAB, 25% 2010 LD
UKIP: 16% 2010 CON, 12% 2010 LAB, 3% 2010 LD0 -
In Clacton Labour retained about 4/9ths of their GE2010 vote share. A similar performance in Rochester and Strood would see their vote share reduced to about 12.8%.Easterross said:Afternoon all and do any of you think the Labour vote could fall below 10% at Rochester tomorrow?
It's definitely possible that they will go below 10%, but I would be mildly surprised.0 -
Not so. Ministers are not involved in that level of detail and you forget she's only been in post a few weeks. Conclusion: Your comment was idiotic.Indigo said:
Based on policies she set. Politicians set policies, officials carry them out, the buck stops on her desk.antifrank said:
It's certainly total idiocy to blame Nicky Morgan for an individual decision that will have been made about 10,000 grades below her.Indigo said:Who was it that said Nicky Morgan was a good minister ?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2840796/Rural-school-denied-grade-Ofsted-inspectors-s-English-not-diverse-enough.html
"Rural school is denied top grade by Ofsted inspectors because it's 'too English' and not diverse enough"
Total Idiocy.0 -
Looks like a Tory infight thenantifrank said:Indigo said:Who was it that said Nicky Morgan was a good minister ?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2840796/Rural-school-denied-grade-Ofsted-inspectors-s-English-not-diverse-enough.html
"Rural school is denied top grade by Ofsted inspectors because it's 'too English' and not diverse enough"
Total Idiocy.
It's certainly total idiocy to blame Nicky Morgan for an individual decision that will have been made about 10,000 grades below her.
"Tory MP for Gainsborough Sir Edward Leigh said: 'This is political correctness gone mad.
'Middle Rasen Primary School is an outstanding school by any standards, and Melonie Brunton is a brilliant headteacher - I back the school and its head one-hundred percent.
'Just last week I wrote to Nicky Morgan, the Education Secretary, objecting strenuously to the new so-called 'equality' regulations she is implementing in schools.
'Conservatives have always stood for freeing our schools from the deadening hand of state-enforced orthodoxy.
'Why there has been such a massive U-turn under Nicky Morgan is inexplicable to me"
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2840796/Rural-school-denied-grade-Ofsted-inspectors-s-English-not-diverse-enough.html#ixzz3JXHQB3h9
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
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The Tories haven't gone up 4% in the national polls since the summer and Labour have not fallen 1% since the summer.chestnut said:
That's one hypothesis I suppose. It seems to ignore the obvious movement in the national numbers though.Speedy said:Not really, the numbers are very similar with the Ashcroft poll.
And the tiny difference could be due to methodology.
So comparing the almost non existent movement, between 2 different pollsters with different methodologies, of a constituency poll with national polls, is scientific garbage.0 -
Mr. Me, no. That would be someone who likes water, not who is not afraid of it.
Don't know if this went through, but when I was at university I heard some wanted to create a condition term to describe someone who doesn't have hypochondria.
Some people have too much time to waste on nonsense.0 -
"Tory MP for Gainsborough Sir Edward Leigh said: 'This is political correctness gone mad.felix said:
Not so. Ministers are not involved in that level of detail and you forget she's only been in post a few weeks. Conclusion: Your comment was idiotic.Indigo said:
Based on policies she set. Politicians set policies, officials carry them out, the buck stops on her desk.antifrank said:
It's certainly total idiocy to blame Nicky Morgan for an individual decision that will have been made about 10,000 grades below her.Indigo said:Who was it that said Nicky Morgan was a good minister ?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2840796/Rural-school-denied-grade-Ofsted-inspectors-s-English-not-diverse-enough.html
"Rural school is denied top grade by Ofsted inspectors because it's 'too English' and not diverse enough"
Total Idiocy.
'Middle Rasen Primary School is an outstanding school by any standards, and Melonie Brunton is a brilliant headteacher - I back the school and its head one-hundred percent.
'Just last week I wrote to Nicky Morgan, the Education Secretary, objecting strenuously to the new so-called 'equality' regulations she is implementing in schools.
'Conservatives have always stood for freeing our schools from the deadening hand of state-enforced orthodoxy.
'Why there has been such a massive U-turn under Nicky Morgan is inexplicable to me"
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2840796/Rural-school-denied-grade-Ofsted-inspectors-s-English-not-diverse-enough.html#ixzz3JXHQB3h9
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook0 -
8/11 for Labour to poll under 15.0% with LadbrokesOblitusSumMe said:
In Clacton Labour retained about 4/9ths of their GE2010 vote share. A similar performance in Rochester and Strood would see their vote share reduced to about 12.8%.Easterross said:Afternoon all and do any of you think the Labour vote could fall below 10% at Rochester tomorrow?
It's definitely possible.0 -
Not totally following that comment!?!Speedy said:
They could not win Stockton South and win the other 37 Tory marginals that Labour is ahead in the constituency polls.felix said:
Most interesting -remember that a lot of Ashcroft' s earlier polls are now out of date. However, if Labour missed this they'd certainly not be on course to win next year. One awaits Big John Owls Baxtering with amusement.Speedy said:
Most interesting thing, the Tories replace exactly the amount they are losing to UKIP with the LD, thanks to no 2010 LD going to UKIP:Easterross said:Very interesting:
Britain Elects
@britainelects
Stockton South constituency poll (Survation):
CON - 39% (-)
LAB - 37% (-1)
UKIP - 18% (+15)
GRN - 3% (+3)
LDEM - 3% (-12)
CON: 79% 2010 CON, 5% 2010 LAB, 25% 2010 LD
UKIP: 16% 2010 CON, 12% 2010 LAB, 3% 2010 LD0 -
Instead of UKIP did they put PDTP (pig dog traitor party)??TheScreamingEagles said:There's a mahoosive typo/mistake in the Survation release.
Anyone else spotted it?
.... I'll get my coat.0 -
After a couple of beers is the state Ukippers are in for good portion of their evenings, so perhaps that's the key to Farage's support.Indigo said:
Nothing like a politician for self-kidology. Tories 10 point below where they were two years ago, so obviously the detoxification is working. When he has the party down to the bedrock with a 10% vote, he will do doubt consider it has been purified. Roger would approve, much better to be pure in opposition that be affected by the trappings of government as we heard earlier.Luckyguy1983 said:
I'm pretty sure nothing really gets through that carapace of unwarranted self regard. He will probably congratulate himself on further detoxifying the party.taffys said:Don;t envy Dave this week. A shellacking. Defectors waiting in the wings. sheesh.
I dont think many UKIP voters particularly like Farage or his policies, but what they feel more than anything else at the moment is a burning contempt for the political classes, they feel the augean stables are in need of a damn good cleaning. Which is why UKIP are immune to challenges on their policies, no one cares what they are, they just want to see Dave lose the elections and the tories implode, and then Ed try and run a socialist government in the teeth of a record deficit and impending economic storm, shortly followed by Labour imploding as well. After a couple of beers I can see the appeal.0 -
That isnt how Edward Leigh MP sees it. He objected to her to the policies she was implementing, read the article.felix said:
Not so. Ministers are not involved in that level of detail and you forget she's only been in post a few weeks. Conclusion: Your comment was idiotic.Indigo said:
Based on policies she set. Politicians set policies, officials carry them out, the buck stops on her desk.antifrank said:
It's certainly total idiocy to blame Nicky Morgan for an individual decision that will have been made about 10,000 grades below her.Indigo said:Who was it that said Nicky Morgan was a good minister ?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2840796/Rural-school-denied-grade-Ofsted-inspectors-s-English-not-diverse-enough.html
"Rural school is denied top grade by Ofsted inspectors because it's 'too English' and not diverse enough"
Total Idiocy.
0 -
Wel 'phill' implies an active interest in a particular thing. Perhaps aquaagnostic?OblitusSumMe said:
Er, hydrophile?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Isam, I encountered the unusual cisgender term on Twitter. The way to recall is to compare trans- and cisgender with Trans- and Cisalpine Gaul.
I must admit, it seems a bit of an unnecessary term, almost like inventing a word for people who aren't scared of water as a contrast to hydrophobe.
The thing about cis/trans is that the term "cis" already existed, as you point out, it's simply its use in relation to gender that is new.
0 -
The weighted base is less than 600. Margin of error is bigger than difference between the two polls.Speedy said:
Not really, the numbers are very similar with the Ashcroft poll.chestnut said:Ashcroft sampled Stockton between 26/6 and 4/7. The new numbers are broadly consistent with the Lab-Con swingback since then.
And the tiny difference could be due to methodology.
Anyone care to calculate what the margin of error is on the 2010 Lib Dem subsample?0 -
So, to summarise - you don't like the idea that Ed could easily be losing in the North East in marginal seat 7.Speedy said:The Tories haven't gone up 4% in the national polls since the summer and Labour have not fallen 1% since the summer.
So comparing the almost non existent movement, between 2 different pollsters with different methodologies, of a constituency poll with national polls, is scientific garbage.
0 -
DavidL said:
I couldn't really follow the argument.DavidL said:
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None of that makes sense until we see Morgan's reply. Nor to anyone with knowledge of schools and OFSTED for the past 15 years. I suspect most will sympathise with the school but to pretend it has anything to do with the new SOS is pretty stupid and entirely consistent for Leigh.isam said:
"Tory MP for Gainsborough Sir Edward Leigh said: 'This is political correctness gone mad.felix said:
Not so. Ministers are not involved in that level of detail and you forget she's only been in post a few weeks. Conclusion: Your comment was idiotic.Indigo said:
Based on policies she set. Politicians set policies, officials carry them out, the buck stops on her desk.antifrank said:
It's certainly total idiocy to blame Nicky Morgan for an individual decision that will have been made about 10,000 grades below her.Indigo said:Who was it that said Nicky Morgan was a good minister ?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2840796/Rural-school-denied-grade-Ofsted-inspectors-s-English-not-diverse-enough.html
"Rural school is denied top grade by Ofsted inspectors because it's 'too English' and not diverse enough"
Total Idiocy.
'Middle Rasen Primary School is an outstanding school by any standards, and Melonie Brunton is a brilliant headteacher - I back the school and its head one-hundred percent.
'Just last week I wrote to Nicky Morgan, the Education Secretary, objecting strenuously to the new so-called 'equality' regulations she is implementing in schools.
'Conservatives have always stood for freeing our schools from the deadening hand of state-enforced orthodoxy.
'Why there has been such a massive U-turn under Nicky Morgan is inexplicable to me"
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2840796/Rural-school-denied-grade-Ofsted-inspectors-s-English-not-diverse-enough.html#ixzz3JXHQB3h9
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook0 -
Yes, I happily have £20 on this particular coin tossantifrank said:
I'll happily bet at 9/4 on a coin toss.Speedy said:
Last Ashcroft poll had it:chestnut said:
Stockton South is now a Tory Hold?Scott_P said:@kiranstacey: Fascinating Survation poll in Stockton South - Ukip up 15 points since 2010 - none of which has come fro the Tories: http://t.co/H0evhCnRT5
That's Labour Target 7.
CON 35, LAB 38, UKIP 19, LD 4
Survation has it:
CON 39, LAB 37, UKIP 18, LD 3
Pretty similar numbers, lets say too close to call. 0 -
Ah, yes, see the distinction now. Thanks.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Me, no. That would be someone who likes water, not who is not afraid of it.
Don't know if this went through, but when I was at university I heard some wanted to create a condition term to describe someone who doesn't have hypochondria.
Some people have too much time to waste on nonsense.0 -
And total idiocy to say the school was graded 'good' and not 'outstanding' because it is 'too English'. The report simply doesn't say that and to use quotes is thoroughly misleading. The school was not rated outstanding on any single criteria but should be congratulated for bettering it's 'needs improvement' assessment rather than being dragged into this row.antifrank said:
It's certainly total idiocy to blame Nicky Morgan for an individual decision that will have been made about 10,000 grades below her.Indigo said:Who was it that said Nicky Morgan was a good minister ?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2840796/Rural-school-denied-grade-Ofsted-inspectors-s-English-not-diverse-enough.html
"Rural school is denied top grade by Ofsted inspectors because it's 'too English' and not diverse enough"
Total Idiocy.
0 -
You're in good company with Sir Edward - he's not the sharpest pencil in the box either.Indigo said:
That isnt how Edward Leigh MP sees it. He objected to her to the policies she was implementing, read the article.felix said:
Not so. Ministers are not involved in that level of detail and you forget she's only been in post a few weeks. Conclusion: Your comment was idiotic.Indigo said:
Based on policies she set. Politicians set policies, officials carry them out, the buck stops on her desk.antifrank said:
It's certainly total idiocy to blame Nicky Morgan for an individual decision that will have been made about 10,000 grades below her.Indigo said:Who was it that said Nicky Morgan was a good minister ?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2840796/Rural-school-denied-grade-Ofsted-inspectors-s-English-not-diverse-enough.html
"Rural school is denied top grade by Ofsted inspectors because it's 'too English' and not diverse enough"
Total Idiocy.0 -
The Lib Dems swinging to the Tories in THIS seat makes sense.OblitusSumMe said:
The weighted base is less than 600. Margin of error is bigger than difference between the two polls.Speedy said:
Not really, the numbers are very similar with the Ashcroft poll.chestnut said:Ashcroft sampled Stockton between 26/6 and 4/7. The new numbers are broadly consistent with the Lab-Con swingback since then.
And the tiny difference could be due to methodology.
Anyone care to calculate what the margin of error is on the 2010 Lib Dem subsample?0 -
Well I agree about the Augean Stables (never was a metaphor more apt), but I happen to like Farage, and his policies. Sorry (not sorry) if that offends, but I fail to see what is less than eminently sensible about controlling our borders, or indeed withdrawing from the moribund EU. And like many supporters, the louder and more insistent the shreiks from 'mainstream' media and politicians against UKIP grow, the more I will be convinced.Indigo said:
Nothing like a politician for self-kidology. Tories 10 point below where they were two years ago, so obviously the detoxification is working. When he has the party down to the bedrock with a 10% vote, he will do doubt consider it has been purified. Roger would approve, much better to be pure in opposition that be affected by the trappings of government as we heard earlier.Luckyguy1983 said:
I'm pretty sure nothing really gets through that carapace of unwarranted self regard. He will probably congratulate himself on further detoxifying the party.taffys said:Don;t envy Dave this week. A shellacking. Defectors waiting in the wings. sheesh.
I dont think many UKIP voters particularly like Farage or his policies, but what they feel more than anything else at the moment is a burning contempt for the political classes, they feel the augean stables are in need of a damn good cleaning. Which is why UKIP are immune to challenges on their policies, no one cares what they are, they just want to see Dave lose the elections and the tories implode, and then Ed try and run a socialist government in the teeth of a record deficit and impending economic storm, shortly followed by Labour imploding as well. After a couple of beers I can see the appeal.
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Hydrognostic is a bit easier to say, as is aquaneutral - though the latter sounds like the sort of thing you'd hear in an advert for a facial cream so my immediate reaction to it is "Ugh!"RobD said:
Wel 'phill' implies an active interest in a particular thing. Perhaps aquaagnostic?OblitusSumMe said:
Er, hydrophile?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Isam, I encountered the unusual cisgender term on Twitter. The way to recall is to compare trans- and cisgender with Trans- and Cisalpine Gaul.
I must admit, it seems a bit of an unnecessary term, almost like inventing a word for people who aren't scared of water as a contrast to hydrophobe.
The thing about cis/trans is that the term "cis" already existed, as you point out, it's simply its use in relation to gender that is new.0 -
Don't think anyone has been arguing about that, just about what Nicky Morgan's role in this was/is.Rexel56 said:
And total idiocy to say the school was graded 'good' and not 'outstanding' because it is 'too English'. The report simply doesn't say that and to use quotes is thoroughly misleading. The school was not rated outstanding on any single criteria but should be congratulated for bettering it's 'needs improvement' assessment rather than being dragged into this row.antifrank said:
It's certainly total idiocy to blame Nicky Morgan for an individual decision that will have been made about 10,000 grades below her.Indigo said:Who was it that said Nicky Morgan was a good minister ?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2840796/Rural-school-denied-grade-Ofsted-inspectors-s-English-not-diverse-enough.html
"Rural school is denied top grade by Ofsted inspectors because it's 'too English' and not diverse enough"
Total Idiocy.
0 -
You shouldn't knock it -it's the only way anyone's going to derive any humour from posts like this.Ninoinoz said:
After a couple of beers is the state Ukippers are in for good portion of their evenings, so perhaps that's the key to Farage's support.Indigo said:
Nothing like a politician for self-kidology. Tories 10 point below where they were two years ago, so obviously the detoxification is working. When he has the party down to the bedrock with a 10% vote, he will do doubt consider it has been purified. Roger would approve, much better to be pure in opposition that be affected by the trappings of government as we heard earlier.Luckyguy1983 said:
I'm pretty sure nothing really gets through that carapace of unwarranted self regard. He will probably congratulate himself on further detoxifying the party.taffys said:Don;t envy Dave this week. A shellacking. Defectors waiting in the wings. sheesh.
I dont think many UKIP voters particularly like Farage or his policies, but what they feel more than anything else at the moment is a burning contempt for the political classes, they feel the augean stables are in need of a damn good cleaning. Which is why UKIP are immune to challenges on their policies, no one cares what they are, they just want to see Dave lose the elections and the tories implode, and then Ed try and run a socialist government in the teeth of a record deficit and impending economic storm, shortly followed by Labour imploding as well. After a couple of beers I can see the appeal.
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I just wanted to apologies for the number of typos in my comment! Stupid iPhone.OblitusSumMe said:
Hydrognostic is a bit easier to say, as is aquaneutral - though the latter sounds like the sort of thing you'd hear in an advert for a facial cream so my immediate reaction to it is "Ugh!"RobD said:
Wel 'phill' implies an active interest in a particular thing. Perhaps aquaagnostic?OblitusSumMe said:
Er, hydrophile?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Isam, I encountered the unusual cisgender term on Twitter. The way to recall is to compare trans- and cisgender with Trans- and Cisalpine Gaul.
I must admit, it seems a bit of an unnecessary term, almost like inventing a word for people who aren't scared of water as a contrast to hydrophobe.
The thing about cis/trans is that the term "cis" already existed, as you point out, it's simply its use in relation to gender that is new.0 -
Shadsy's got it just about right, as usual.Artist said:
8/11 for Labour to poll under 15.0% with LadbrokesOblitusSumMe said:
In Clacton Labour retained about 4/9ths of their GE2010 vote share. A similar performance in Rochester and Strood would see their vote share reduced to about 12.8%.Easterross said:Afternoon all and do any of you think the Labour vote could fall below 10% at Rochester tomorrow?
It's definitely possible.
Labour scarcely bothered but they do have a decent candidate so she may hold the vote up. Low teens would be a decent result for her.
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Mr. Me, gnostic means 'knowing'. It's agnosis/agnostic which conveys uncertainty.
[I know this is incredibly pedantic, but that doesn't mean I'm not enjoying this odd tangent].
Hydragnostic sounds like knowledge of hydras, though. [Which linsk nicely to the Augean stables comment below].0 -
I meant why did you think the piece was likely to be worth reading in the first place? These people really in a world of their own. Their true genius is getting other people to pay for it on the basis that they are doing something useful.Sean_F said:DavidL said:
I couldn't really follow the argument.DavidL said:0
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