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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on the afternoon before the big by-election
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on the afternoon before the big by-election
Reminder. Next PB gathering this Friday Nov 21 - the day after Rochester. Usual place - Dirty Dicks opposite Liverpool Street station London from 1830. We are on the first floor right at the back of the pub.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/30120317
"A protest group of around 300 people called “What the f**k is 'Abortion Culture'?” appeared on Facebook that promised to “take along some non-destructive but oh so disruptive instruments to help demonstrate to the anti-choicers just what we think of their 'debate'.” We were guilty of promoting "really sh*tty anti-choice rhetoric and probs some cissexism." The foul language indicates how sophisticated the protesters were, while the accusation of cissexism had me reaching for my online urban dictionary. Was I being called a sissy by homophobic feminists? Mais non. Apparently a “cis” is someone who identifies with the same gender that they were born with. So that’s a thing now.
The university’s students’ union also issued a statement that took aim at Brendan and me for being so offensively attached to our God-given genitals: “The Women’s Campaign (WomCam) condemn SFL for holding this debate. It is absurd to think we should be listening to two cisgender men debate about what people with uteruses should be doing with their bodies.” "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11239437/Oxford-students-shut-down-abortion-debate.-Free-speech-is-under-assault-on-campus.html
YouGov shows Labour lead down to 3%
November 26th, 2004
Slightly better news for Michael Howard
After the NOP and ICM polls showing Labour leads of 8-9% this month’s YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph has the margin dropping to just 3%. The figures are:-
LAB 35% (-1): CON 32% (n/c): LD 23% (+1): UKIP 5% (n/c)
Compared with the YouGov poll at the start of October the Labour lead has been halved. Today’s poll is also good news for the Lib Dems with it returning to its highest share of the year from the pollster.
[...]
Today’s poll shows the impact that UKIP continues to have on the Tories and this is where, we believe the election will be decided. If UKIP remains at 4-5% then the Tories will continue to struggle and Labour will win a substantial majority.
If Michael Howard and his Australian Campaign Director, Lynton Crosby, can find a way of dealing with the UKIP issue then the outcome will be much closer. They might take some comfort in the fact that YouGov, when tested, does over-state UKIP significantly.
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2004/11/26/yougov-shows-labour-lead-down-to-3/
"Rochester Man is normal. Very normal. And for the Conservatives, that’s a big problem.
The trouble with Rochester and Strood, site of a parliamentary by-election on Thursday, is that it is not unusual. Rochester Man doesn't just live in Rochester. He lives in lots of places. Lots of constituencies.
Douglas Carswell's huge Ukip by-election victory in Clacton-on-Sea last month could be written off as a freak event in a very unusual seat. Clacton has the largest concentration in the UK of voters from the group that leans most towards Ukip: older, poorly-qualified, white working-class voters.
Because Clacton was unusual, the Conservatives could reassure themselves, and the media, that Ukip would struggle to repeat the its electoral success in more “normal” constituencies.
That argument will not be tenable if Mark Reckless follows Mr Carswell back into Parliament at his by-election in Rochester. "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11229398/Meet-Rochester-Man-the-Conservatives-worst-nightmare.html
*titters*
I must admit, it seems a bit of an unnecessary term, almost like inventing a word for people who aren't scared of water as a contrast to hydrophobe.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/nov/18/feminism-rosetta-scientist-shirt-dapper-laughs-julien-blanc-inequality
Surely not Rob
Typical Cisgender!
The American's feel patriotic about NASA because its the National Aeronautics & Space Administration. The problem with Europe is it has no demos and no democracy, the population dont feel they are one people, and they dont feel they are in control of their European destiny, they feel is a sump for a very large amount of money which is used to subsidize what seems to them to be undeserving causes. A not untypical comment I hear when talking to people about the EU is "Charity begins at home", its the same reason the government is going to have an uphill task persuading anyone of the merits of its large aid budget taking in countries which have space programs when we dont (linking back to NASA again!)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zHAkekdPWdM
http://i.imgur.com/FTFCgHH.png
Now I'm offended
Net aid to the EU = £10,000 million p.a.
On the plus side, there's a title-deciding race in Abu Dhabi to look forward to. Hopefully Rosberg will snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
O/T I don't know if anyone read the news item in the Times about how Seals like to rape King Penguins.
Scientists initially wondered if this was because Seals mistook King Penguins for other seals, but decided this couldn't be the case, because:-
a) Seals don't look King Penguins
b) After they've done the nasty, the Seals eat the King Penguins.
FPT John O, yes, Brian Coleman joining UKIP would be a nightmare.
One vote going free to the first party that treats me like an adult and tells us how it really is, and what the choices are. Preferably one that stays away from the same old platitudes and nostrums. I am sure Nige is getting a load of votes because people think he is more authentic (he probably isn't, but the illusion works), and dont get the continuous impression of being treated like a mushroom.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dg0vizpfB7k
That's Labour Target 7.
If I read that correctly, the cons would actually hold the seat despite the UKIP surge.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2840957/Vile-pick-coach-Julien-Blanc-banned-UK-136-000-signed-petition-calling-refused-visa-British-seduction-seminar.html
CON 35, LAB 38, UKIP 19, LD 4
Survation has it:
CON 39, LAB 37, UKIP 18, LD 3
Pretty similar numbers, lets say too close to call.
As it is, my plan remains to do my best to thwart the prospect of Balls holding his seat, though I suspect it'll prove a vain endeavour.
Britain Elects
@britainelects
Stockton South constituency poll (Survation):
CON - 39% (-)
LAB - 37% (-1)
UKIP - 18% (+15)
GRN - 3% (+3)
LDEM - 3% (-12)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2840796/Rural-school-denied-grade-Ofsted-inspectors-s-English-not-diverse-enough.html
"Rural school is denied top grade by Ofsted inspectors because it's 'too English' and not diverse enough"
Total Idiocy.
Except 35% of it came from 2010 Tories
Greens beating Labour.
Or UKIP with a majority greater than 10000.
Anyone else spotted it?
CON: 79% 2010 CON, 5% 2010 LAB, 25% 2010 LD
UKIP: 16% 2010 CON, 12% 2010 LAB, 3% 2010 LD
at the height of the mating season it tries to roger a king penguin....
naw - sphinx.
And the tiny difference could be due to methodology.
I dont think many UKIP voters particularly like Farage or his policies, but what they feel more than anything else at the moment is a burning contempt for the political classes, they feel the augean stables are in need of a damn good cleaning. Which is why UKIP are immune to challenges on their policies, no one cares what they are, they just want to see Dave lose the elections and the tories implode, and then Ed try and run a socialist government in the teeth of a record deficit and impending economic storm, shortly followed by Labour imploding as well. After a couple of beers I can see the appeal.
The thing about cis/trans is that the term "cis" already existed, as you point out, it's simply its use in relation to gender that is new.
It's definitely possible that they will go below 10%, but I would be mildly surprised.
"Tory MP for Gainsborough Sir Edward Leigh said: 'This is political correctness gone mad.
'Middle Rasen Primary School is an outstanding school by any standards, and Melonie Brunton is a brilliant headteacher - I back the school and its head one-hundred percent.
'Just last week I wrote to Nicky Morgan, the Education Secretary, objecting strenuously to the new so-called 'equality' regulations she is implementing in schools.
'Conservatives have always stood for freeing our schools from the deadening hand of state-enforced orthodoxy.
'Why there has been such a massive U-turn under Nicky Morgan is inexplicable to me"
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2840796/Rural-school-denied-grade-Ofsted-inspectors-s-English-not-diverse-enough.html#ixzz3JXHQB3h9
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
So comparing the almost non existent movement, between 2 different pollsters with different methodologies, of a constituency poll with national polls, is scientific garbage.
Don't know if this went through, but when I was at university I heard some wanted to create a condition term to describe someone who doesn't have hypochondria.
Some people have too much time to waste on nonsense.
'Middle Rasen Primary School is an outstanding school by any standards, and Melonie Brunton is a brilliant headteacher - I back the school and its head one-hundred percent.
'Just last week I wrote to Nicky Morgan, the Education Secretary, objecting strenuously to the new so-called 'equality' regulations she is implementing in schools.
'Conservatives have always stood for freeing our schools from the deadening hand of state-enforced orthodoxy.
'Why there has been such a massive U-turn under Nicky Morgan is inexplicable to me"
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2840796/Rural-school-denied-grade-Ofsted-inspectors-s-English-not-diverse-enough.html#ixzz3JXHQB3h9
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
.... I'll get my coat.
Anyone care to calculate what the margin of error is on the 2010 Lib Dem subsample?
Labour scarcely bothered but they do have a decent candidate so she may hold the vote up. Low teens would be a decent result for her.
[I know this is incredibly pedantic, but that doesn't mean I'm not enjoying this odd tangent].
Hydragnostic sounds like knowledge of hydras, though. [Which linsk nicely to the Augean stables comment below].