Zack Polanski @ZackPolanski · 5h 💚 For the first time ever in our history ,@TheGreenParty will be standing in every single constituency in England & Wales.
Zack Polanski @ZackPolanski · 5h 💚 For the first time ever in our history ,@TheGreenParty will be standing in every single constituency in England & Wales.
How many lost deposits for the Green Tories?
110, presumably - if they do stand in that many seats as indicated.
Manchester police re-investigating Angela Rayner council house claims
Labour’s deputy leader is accused of breaking electoral law for allegedly giving false information relating to capital gains tax on her former Stockport house
Police are reassessing claims that Angela Rayner broke electoral law after receiving a complaint from the deputy chairman of the Conservative Party.
James Daly, the MP for Bury North, said Greater Manchester police had failed to properly investigate claims the Labour deputy leader may have broken the law in the early 2010s when she lived between two council houses in Stockport.
On Monday the police confirmed that a detective chief inspector had been assigned to reconsider the case, putting pressure on Rayner again, days after she launched a fightback in the media.
James Daly, the MP for Bury North, would be better advised to investigate his own job prospects. He is the proud owner of the smallest Tory majority (105) in the country, and is toast.
It is hard to see what the advantage is for the government. Even if Rayner is forced out of the Commons, how does that help the Conservatives? She will be replaced and her replacement will win. Net gain, zero. And coming so soon after the anti-London video, it smacks of dirty tricks.
It's only dirty tricks if she has done nothing wrong. If she has indeed done nothing wrong then she can cash in on the 'Tories out to get the working class woman' angle
Given the current leadership and policies i wouldn't describe myself as a Tory anymore but is this not exactly the sort of person that Maggie tried so hard to help during her Premiership, not only because she thought it was a good thing in itself but because she believed that a property owning democracy was both more law abiding and more likely to vote Tory.
Its pretty sad that the modern Tory has such a problem with someone who had tried to make something of herself. They really need to reflect what their values actually are.
Well yes it is, and if she did that fairly and by the book that's what Thatcher was aiming for I presume. There's an accusation here, either mendacious or something amiss has occured. If sleaze has happened it's sleaze, regardless of the party or individual responsible. If a mendacious accusation without basis then may they reap the whirlwind they deserve.
If I was under 30 I think that the triple lock would have me looking seriously for emigration. It is an outrageous penalty on the young and poor for the benefit of the old and comfortable.
221.20 a week is not comfortable. Taper it down to 50% for all based on income only as a mitigation
I agree it isn't. But what pisses me off is that the rate at which it is paid is the same for those with private or public sector pensions of £60K a year or more. We need to spend more on poor pensioners and much, much less on those who have other income. The Universal state pension is an idiocy which should be abolished.
As for some poor sod on minimum wage on zero hours with University fee debts to pay forking out for it in his taxes? It is grossly immoral.
Agreed. Taper it down based on other income. Although everyone should get 'some' pension
The best way, and most consistent with declared political policy over the state pension, is to apply the triple lock (at least), to tax wealthier pensioners (me for example) properly, and (before all else) to get rid of fiscal drag.
The poorest pensioners pay little tax BUT the effect of tax kicking in at £12.5K when you have an income of £17,000 (for example) is much harsher on the poor than on the wealthy. When you are poor, a little is a lot. No-one should be paying income tax on earnings a lot less than minimum wage.
I agree with the tax point but such a policy needs to be paid for and the best way to pay for it would be to have pensioners receiving more than the average wage paying at least as much tax as they would be if they were earning that money through their labours. I also think the State Pension needs to be means tested in a fairly generous way, with the entitlement tapering down to zero or some notional figure once your income has reached certain levels.
Manchester police re-investigating Angela Rayner council house claims
Labour’s deputy leader is accused of breaking electoral law for allegedly giving false information relating to capital gains tax on her former Stockport house
Police are reassessing claims that Angela Rayner broke electoral law after receiving a complaint from the deputy chairman of the Conservative Party.
James Daly, the MP for Bury North, said Greater Manchester police had failed to properly investigate claims the Labour deputy leader may have broken the law in the early 2010s when she lived between two council houses in Stockport.
On Monday the police confirmed that a detective chief inspector had been assigned to reconsider the case, putting pressure on Rayner again, days after she launched a fightback in the media.
But wait, it's 99% probable that Labour will form the government after the next election, according to John Curtice. Nothing could possibly ha -
PS And bored-stiff journos are tweeting to report that Tory MPs have lost their mojo. It's all over already. Over. Isn't it?
It is.
Angela Rayner could kill a cat live on TV whilst punching a NHS nurse and Labour are still going to win.
While Joe Biden has a stroke and Eddie Izzard puts the case for Labour on other channels, as son of Rotherham breaks.
Remain was at 1.3 three days before the EU membership referendum.
You can get 17/2 on the Tories to win most seats at the next general election. Have you partaken?
I bought Tory most seats at 6. It's at 10.5 now at BF. On the Tory seat losses market I will break even if they lose 51-200, win a moderate amount if they lose 1-50, win a large amount if they don't lose any, and lose money if they lose 201+. Also I am on them to get a majority, although with a smaller investment than on most seats. Am also on Penny Mordaunt as next PM, although with my behind covered just in case it's Cameron or Hunt. If La Penny takes over, while counting my winnings I may lay some of the election bets off.
Manchester police re-investigating Angela Rayner council house claims
Labour’s deputy leader is accused of breaking electoral law for allegedly giving false information relating to capital gains tax on her former Stockport house
Police are reassessing claims that Angela Rayner broke electoral law after receiving a complaint from the deputy chairman of the Conservative Party.
James Daly, the MP for Bury North, said Greater Manchester police had failed to properly investigate claims the Labour deputy leader may have broken the law in the early 2010s when she lived between two council houses in Stockport.
On Monday the police confirmed that a detective chief inspector had been assigned to reconsider the case, putting pressure on Rayner again, days after she launched a fightback in the media.
Lord Ashcroft said he was going to send her a copy but wasn't sure what house to send it to !!!!
Whatever the wrongs or rights of the issue and I defer to the Dan Neidle thread on Twitter on the matter Ms Rayner clearly does not like being subject to scrutiny. Playing the "poor me" card.
"Ms Rayner hit back at what she called Lord Ashcroft’s “unhealthy interest” in her family life. She also accused the former Tory deputy chair of wanting to “kick down at people like me who graft hard in tough circumstances to get on in life”."
'graft' is an unfortunate word, given its multiple meanings
However, I suspect this is kormagate all over again - Con figure makes a lot of noise, police 'have another look' to keep everyone happy.
If it does turn out there's more to it, then it's much more of an issue for Rayner than Lab (she'd have to resign deputy leader position, Lab would move on) It's not as if the Conservatives are free of sleaze issues to make voters move to them as the 'clean' party.
I have no more knowledge than anyone else on here of her financial arrangements, but the rumours of the story, that she declared one house as her primary residence when it wasn't, as 'testified' by neighbours, suggest there is a case to answer. It sounds exactly like what a lot of MP's did before the expenses scandal. If I recall correctly didn't Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper have different primary residences, despite being married to each other?
Zack Polanski @ZackPolanski · 5h 💚 For the first time ever in our history ,@TheGreenParty will be standing in every single constituency in England & Wales.
Manchester police re-investigating Angela Rayner council house claims
Labour’s deputy leader is accused of breaking electoral law for allegedly giving false information relating to capital gains tax on her former Stockport house
Police are reassessing claims that Angela Rayner broke electoral law after receiving a complaint from the deputy chairman of the Conservative Party.
James Daly, the MP for Bury North, said Greater Manchester police had failed to properly investigate claims the Labour deputy leader may have broken the law in the early 2010s when she lived between two council houses in Stockport.
On Monday the police confirmed that a detective chief inspector had been assigned to reconsider the case, putting pressure on Rayner again, days after she launched a fightback in the media.
James Daly, the MP for Bury North, would be better advised to investigate his own job prospects. He is the proud owner of the smallest Tory majority (105) in the country, and is toast.
It is hard to see what the advantage is for the government. Even if Rayner is forced out of the Commons, how does that help the Conservatives? She will be replaced and her replacement will win. Net gain, zero. And coming so soon after the anti-London video, it smacks of dirty tricks.
It's only dirty tricks if she has done nothing wrong. If she has indeed done nothing wrong then she can cash in on the 'Tories out to get the working class woman' angle
Ah but it comes at the same time as the dystopian London anti-Khan advert (and there are rumours of another one in Birmingham or Manchester) so whether Rayner has been caught bang to rights is immaterial. Whether the timing is just coincidence or deliberate is moot because it looks bad. It looks like CCHQ is indiscriminately throwing mud and hoping some sticks.
And for what? Labour will win Rayner's seat whoever stands. It is not like PPE where sleaze spreads to the whole government. Raynergate is either sui generis or public suspicion spreads to all MPs with two homes, which is most of them. It does not harm Labour though, that's the point.
If I was under 30 I think that the triple lock would have me looking seriously for emigration. It is an outrageous penalty on the young and poor for the benefit of the old and comfortable.
221.20 a week is not comfortable. Taper it down to 50% for all based on income only as a mitigation
I agree it isn't. But what pisses me off is that the rate at which it is paid is the same for those with private or public sector pensions of £60K a year or more. We need to spend more on poor pensioners and much, much less on those who have other income. The Universal state pension is an idiocy which should be abolished.
As for some poor sod on minimum wage on zero hours with University fee debts to pay forking out for it in his taxes? It is grossly immoral.
Agreed. Taper it down based on other income. Although everyone should get 'some' pension
The best way, and most consistent with declared political policy over the state pension, is to apply the triple lock (at least), to tax wealthier pensioners (me for example) properly, and (before all else) to get rid of fiscal drag.
The poorest pensioners pay little tax BUT the effect of tax kicking in at £12.5K when you have an income of £17,000 (for example) is much harsher on the poor than on the wealthy. When you are poor, a little is a lot. No-one should be paying income tax on earnings a lot less than minimum wage.
I agree with the tax point but such a policy needs to be paid for and the best way to pay for it would be to have pensioners receiving more than the average wage paying at least as much tax as they would be if they were earning that money through their labours. I also think the State Pension needs to be means tested in a fairly generous way, with the entitlement tapering down to zero or some notional figure once your income has reached certain levels.
The problem with creating a taper system or other way of reducing pensions is that it creates a disincentive to save - why bother to put an extra £X in your SIPP if it will just lead to a loss of £Y from your state pension. And it is also likely to create cliff edges which are perceived to be unfair (see child benefit). Better to use the tax system to even things out.
Zack Polanski @ZackPolanski · 5h 💚 For the first time ever in our history ,@TheGreenParty will be standing in every single constituency in England & Wales.
Welcome back. The thing I always notice when i land back in the UK is how miserable everyone is. Much poorer countries have much more joie de vivre.
We shall see
Tbh the clouds parted as we descended and we had an absolutely superb view of London - it was one of those rare routes which went down to the City then along the river past Westminster. I saw my own house. I saw The Smoke entire. And it looked rather magnificent - and notably green
Manchester police re-investigating Angela Rayner council house claims
Labour’s deputy leader is accused of breaking electoral law for allegedly giving false information relating to capital gains tax on her former Stockport house
Police are reassessing claims that Angela Rayner broke electoral law after receiving a complaint from the deputy chairman of the Conservative Party.
James Daly, the MP for Bury North, said Greater Manchester police had failed to properly investigate claims the Labour deputy leader may have broken the law in the early 2010s when she lived between two council houses in Stockport.
On Monday the police confirmed that a detective chief inspector had been assigned to reconsider the case, putting pressure on Rayner again, days after she launched a fightback in the media.
James Daly, the MP for Bury North, would be better advised to investigate his own job prospects. He is the proud owner of the smallest Tory majority (105) in the country, and is toast.
It is hard to see what the advantage is for the government. Even if Rayner is forced out of the Commons, how does that help the Conservatives? She will be replaced and her replacement will win. Net gain, zero. And coming so soon after the anti-London video, it smacks of dirty tricks.
It's only dirty tricks if she has done nothing wrong. If she has indeed done nothing wrong then she can cash in on the 'Tories out to get the working class woman' angle
Given the current leadership and policies i wouldn't describe myself as a Tory anymore but is this not exactly the sort of person that Maggie tried so hard to help during her Premiership, not only because she thought it was a good thing in itself but because she believed that a property owning democracy was both more law abiding and more likely to vote Tory.
Its pretty sad that the modern Tory has such a problem with someone who had tried to make something of herself. They really need to reflect what their values actually are.
Well yes it is, and if she did that fairly and by the book that's what Thatcher was aiming for I presume. There's an accusation here, either mendacious or something amiss has occured. If sleaze has happened it's sleaze, regardless of the party or individual responsible. If a mendacious accusation without basis then may they reap the whirlwind they deserve.
AIUI, and I may be wrong, her family had a council house with a right to buy. By the time she did this she had formed a relationship with her future husband and normally resided in his council house. She then exercised her right to buy on her family's council house and then subsequently sold it for a profit.
There is a question as to whether she claimed that her council house was her main residence when it possibly wasn't but, for goodness sake. She had, AIUI it, been brought up there. I am really struggling to see anything wrong with any of this and I am not a fan, believe me. And as for the police wasting their time on this not once but twice?? Do they not appreciate how much time they are going to need to chase randoms on the internet for hate crimes occurring when their output is read in Scotland after 1st April? It is time to prioritise.
Manchester police re-investigating Angela Rayner council house claims
Labour’s deputy leader is accused of breaking electoral law for allegedly giving false information relating to capital gains tax on her former Stockport house
Police are reassessing claims that Angela Rayner broke electoral law after receiving a complaint from the deputy chairman of the Conservative Party.
James Daly, the MP for Bury North, said Greater Manchester police had failed to properly investigate claims the Labour deputy leader may have broken the law in the early 2010s when she lived between two council houses in Stockport.
On Monday the police confirmed that a detective chief inspector had been assigned to reconsider the case, putting pressure on Rayner again, days after she launched a fightback in the media.
Manchester police re-investigating Angela Rayner council house claims
Labour’s deputy leader is accused of breaking electoral law for allegedly giving false information relating to capital gains tax on her former Stockport house
Police are reassessing claims that Angela Rayner broke electoral law after receiving a complaint from the deputy chairman of the Conservative Party.
James Daly, the MP for Bury North, said Greater Manchester police had failed to properly investigate claims the Labour deputy leader may have broken the law in the early 2010s when she lived between two council houses in Stockport.
On Monday the police confirmed that a detective chief inspector had been assigned to reconsider the case, putting pressure on Rayner again, days after she launched a fightback in the media.
Lord Ashcroft said he was going to send her a copy but wasn't sure what house to send it to !!!!
Whatever the wrongs or rights of the issue and I defer to the Dan Neidle thread on Twitter on the matter Ms Rayner clearly does not like being subject to scrutiny. Playing the "poor me" card.
"Ms Rayner hit back at what she called Lord Ashcroft’s “unhealthy interest” in her family life. She also accused the former Tory deputy chair of wanting to “kick down at people like me who graft hard in tough circumstances to get on in life”."
'graft' is an unfortunate word, given its multiple meanings
However, I suspect this is kormagate all over again - Con figure makes a lot of noise, police 'have another look' to keep everyone happy.
If it does turn out there's more to it, then it's much more of an issue for Rayner than Lab (she'd have to resign deputy leader position, Lab would move on) It's not as if the Conservatives are free of sleaze issues to make voters move to them as the 'clean' party.
I have no more knowledge than anyone else on here of her financial arrangements, but the rumours of the story, that she declared one house as her primary residence when it wasn't, as 'testified' by neighbours, suggest there is a case to answer. It sounds exactly like what a lot of MP's did before the expenses scandal. If I recall correctly didn't Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper have different primary residences, despite being married to each other?
Maybe. But unless Starmer is implicated, I doubt it has much cut-through. Most people won't, at this point, know who Rayner is and certainly won't know her position within the Labour Party. If there's anything in it, it finishes Rayner and adds to the general public perception of MPs being bad'uns. But not big damage to Labour assuming Starmer dispatches her quickly if wrongdoing is found (can he - not from Deputy Leader position? But could withdraw whip for example?)
I assume nothing much came of the Ed Balls/Yvette Cooper situation given Cooper is presently in the Lab front bench?
If I was under 30 I think that the triple lock would have me looking seriously for emigration. It is an outrageous penalty on the young and poor for the benefit of the old and comfortable.
221.20 a week is not comfortable. Taper it down to 50% for all based on income only as a mitigation
I agree it isn't. But what pisses me off is that the rate at which it is paid is the same for those with private or public sector pensions of £60K a year or more. We need to spend more on poor pensioners and much, much less on those who have other income. The Universal state pension is an idiocy which should be abolished.
As for some poor sod on minimum wage on zero hours with University fee debts to pay forking out for it in his taxes? It is grossly immoral.
Agreed. Taper it down based on other income. Although everyone should get 'some' pension
No, keep the triple lock for all pensioners. But reduce the threshold for the 40% tax band (what is it?, 45K, 50K ) for those of pensionable age.
Manchester police re-investigating Angela Rayner council house claims
Labour’s deputy leader is accused of breaking electoral law for allegedly giving false information relating to capital gains tax on her former Stockport house
Police are reassessing claims that Angela Rayner broke electoral law after receiving a complaint from the deputy chairman of the Conservative Party.
James Daly, the MP for Bury North, said Greater Manchester police had failed to properly investigate claims the Labour deputy leader may have broken the law in the early 2010s when she lived between two council houses in Stockport.
On Monday the police confirmed that a detective chief inspector had been assigned to reconsider the case, putting pressure on Rayner again, days after she launched a fightback in the media.
James Daly, the MP for Bury North, would be better advised to investigate his own job prospects. He is the proud owner of the smallest Tory majority (105) in the country, and is toast.
It is hard to see what the advantage is for the government. Even if Rayner is forced out of the Commons, how does that help the Conservatives? She will be replaced and her replacement will win. Net gain, zero. And coming so soon after the anti-London video, it smacks of dirty tricks.
It's only dirty tricks if she has done nothing wrong. If she has indeed done nothing wrong then she can cash in on the 'Tories out to get the working class woman' angle
Given the current leadership and policies i wouldn't describe myself as a Tory anymore but is this not exactly the sort of person that Maggie tried so hard to help during her Premiership, not only because she thought it was a good thing in itself but because she believed that a property owning democracy was both more law abiding and more likely to vote Tory.
Its pretty sad that the modern Tory has such a problem with someone who had tried to make something of herself. They really need to reflect what their values actually are.
Well yes it is, and if she did that fairly and by the book that's what Thatcher was aiming for I presume. There's an accusation here, either mendacious or something amiss has occured. If sleaze has happened it's sleaze, regardless of the party or individual responsible. If a mendacious accusation without basis then may they reap the whirlwind they deserve.
AIUI, and I may be wrong, her family had a council house with a right to buy. By the time she did this she had formed a relationship with her future husband and normally resided in his council house. She then exercised her right to buy on her family's council house and then subsequently sold it for a profit.
There is a question as to whether she claimed that her council house was her main residence when it possibly wasn't but, for goodness sake. She had, AIUI it, been brought up there. I am really struggling to see anything wrong with any of this and I am not a fan, believe me. And as for the police wasting their time on this not once but twice?? Do they not appreciate how much time they are going to need to chase randoms on the internet for hate crimes occurring when their output is read in Scotland after 1st April? It is time to prioritise.
I don't know the answers to this, I'm waiting to see what happens. I don't think it was a family council house though, she moved there as a single mum AIUI
Welcome back. The thing I always notice when i land back in the UK is how miserable everyone is. Much poorer countries have much more joie de vivre.
We shall see
Tbh the clouds parted as we descended and we had an absolutely superb view of London - it was one of those rare routes which went down to the City then along the river past Westminster. I saw my own house. I saw The Smoke entire. And it looked rather magnificent - and notably green
If I was under 30 I think that the triple lock would have me looking seriously for emigration. It is an outrageous penalty on the young and poor for the benefit of the old and comfortable.
221.20 a week is not comfortable. Taper it down to 50% for all based on income only as a mitigation
I agree it isn't. But what pisses me off is that the rate at which it is paid is the same for those with private or public sector pensions of £60K a year or more. We need to spend more on poor pensioners and much, much less on those who have other income. The Universal state pension is an idiocy which should be abolished.
As for some poor sod on minimum wage on zero hours with University fee debts to pay forking out for it in his taxes? It is grossly immoral.
Agreed. Taper it down based on other income. Although everyone should get 'some' pension
No, keep the triple lock for all pensioners. But reduce the threshold for the 40% tax band (what is it?, 45K, 50K ) for those of pensionable age.
Abolish higher rate tax relief on private pension contributions. Funny how the pundits who benefit from this prefer to concentrate on the triple lock.
If I was under 30 I think that the triple lock would have me looking seriously for emigration. It is an outrageous penalty on the young and poor for the benefit of the old and comfortable.
The full state pension is currently a meagre £10,600 pa, lower than most (all?) comparable countries, and not much to live on if a pensioner has no other significant source of income. It would be better policy to maintain the triple lock until the differential narrows further, while at the same time using the tax system to claw back much more money from those who also benefit from a significant private/public sector pension and/or large savings.
It isn't a lot.
However, imagine a world with 30 people in it. 10 are pensioners. 5 are stay at home parents or otherwise not working. 5 are children. And 10 are in work.
In that scenario, £10k of every worker's income goes off to pay pensions, before *any* other expenses.
The issue is not the size of the pension, it is the fact that what was affordable when you had lots of people of working age, and few pensioners, becomes very unaffordable if you have rising life expectancy and a low birth rate.
Things aint lookin so good for April. More gloom and misery. From netweather forum
I see what you mean, the whole pattern after the 7th in particular on the GFS 00z has July 2023 written all over it though at this time of year the synoptics will not produce dangerous heat in southern Europe.
The only comfort I can see is that April is often dissimilar to summer in terms of synoptics. Those synoptics would produce a disastrous summer for both the UK and rest of NW Europe, and southern Europe, if they were to recur in July and August.
The GFS 00z is even worse than yesterday if that was at all possible. Suggests a first half of April perhaps even worse than 1983, 1998, 2000 or 2012. And far worse than the much-maligned 1986.
I've never seen an April so dominated by endless cyclonic SW-ly conditions in the south. Remember 1998 and 2000 had a good few northerly interludes and 2012 was more NW-ly meaning it was brighter in between the rain belts, the first and second weeks being half-decent.
Just hope it's wrong!
Really seems something strange is going on if we have possibly the wettest first half of April on record following 9 months of prolonged wet conditions.
If I was under 30 I think that the triple lock would have me looking seriously for emigration. It is an outrageous penalty on the young and poor for the benefit of the old and comfortable.
221.20 a week is not comfortable. Taper it down to 50% for all based on income only as a mitigation
I agree it isn't. But what pisses me off is that the rate at which it is paid is the same for those with private or public sector pensions of £60K a year or more. We need to spend more on poor pensioners and much, much less on those who have other income. The Universal state pension is an idiocy which should be abolished.
As for some poor sod on minimum wage on zero hours with University fee debts to pay forking out for it in his taxes? It is grossly immoral.
Agreed. Taper it down based on other income. Although everyone should get 'some' pension
No, keep the triple lock for all pensioners. But reduce the threshold for the 40% tax band (what is it?, 45K, 50K ) for those of pensionable age.
Abolish higher rate tax relief on private pension contributions. Funny how the pundits who benefit from this prefer to concentrate on the triple lock.
Yes it is crazy you can get the tax on 60k income back every year if you are already rich enough to store it away for a bit.
Manchester police re-investigating Angela Rayner council house claims
Labour’s deputy leader is accused of breaking electoral law for allegedly giving false information relating to capital gains tax on her former Stockport house
Police are reassessing claims that Angela Rayner broke electoral law after receiving a complaint from the deputy chairman of the Conservative Party.
James Daly, the MP for Bury North, said Greater Manchester police had failed to properly investigate claims the Labour deputy leader may have broken the law in the early 2010s when she lived between two council houses in Stockport.
On Monday the police confirmed that a detective chief inspector had been assigned to reconsider the case, putting pressure on Rayner again, days after she launched a fightback in the media.
Things aint lookin so good for April. More gloom and misery. From netweather forum
I see what you mean, the whole pattern after the 7th in particular on the GFS 00z has July 2023 written all over it though at this time of year the synoptics will not produce dangerous heat in southern Europe.
The only comfort I can see is that April is often dissimilar to summer in terms of synoptics. Those synoptics would produce a disastrous summer for both the UK and rest of NW Europe, and southern Europe, if they were to recur in July and August.
The GFS 00z is even worse than yesterday if that was at all possible. Suggests a first half of April perhaps even worse than 1983, 1998, 2000 or 2012. And far worse than the much-maligned 1986.
I've never seen an April so dominated by endless cyclonic SW-ly conditions in the south. Remember 1998 and 2000 had a good few northerly interludes and 2012 was more NW-ly meaning it was brighter in between the rain belts, the first and second weeks being half-decent.
Just hope it's wrong!
Really seems something strange is going on if we have possibly the wettest first half of April on record following 9 months of prolonged wet conditions.
I know I’ve been in the tropics for months but Jesus it’s COLD - it’s nearly April?
Things aint lookin so good for April. More gloom and misery. From netweather forum
I see what you mean, the whole pattern after the 7th in particular on the GFS 00z has July 2023 written all over it though at this time of year the synoptics will not produce dangerous heat in southern Europe.
The only comfort I can see is that April is often dissimilar to summer in terms of synoptics. Those synoptics would produce a disastrous summer for both the UK and rest of NW Europe, and southern Europe, if they were to recur in July and August.
The GFS 00z is even worse than yesterday if that was at all possible. Suggests a first half of April perhaps even worse than 1983, 1998, 2000 or 2012. And far worse than the much-maligned 1986.
I've never seen an April so dominated by endless cyclonic SW-ly conditions in the south. Remember 1998 and 2000 had a good few northerly interludes and 2012 was more NW-ly meaning it was brighter in between the rain belts, the first and second weeks being half-decent.
Just hope it's wrong!
Really seems something strange is going on if we have possibly the wettest first half of April on record following 9 months of prolonged wet conditions.
I know I’ve been in the tropics for months but Jesus it’s COLD - it’s nearly April?
Sunday was a decent day in that it was sunny but it was till cold. Beats the constant clag and rain.
Models offer little meaningful hope, though the week of April 8th is slightly better. The Atlantic just seems to be going on and on and on as if it were still midwinter, no sign of the usual blocked conditions of spring. Met Office forecast looks dire for the south for most of April; looking possible now that April will be the 10th wet month in a row. Looking at the models I do wonder whether low lying areas of the southwest in particular are heading for catastrophic flooding in the next week or so.
This really is an unprecedented weather event within my lifetime. Summer 2023, autumn 2023, winter 23/24 and now spring 2024 all likely to be amongst the 10 worst examples of the given season that I've experienced. Constant endless cyclonic SW-lies with only short breaks, it's hard to believe that the many changes of season since the end of June last year have not triggered a lasting disruption of the pattern.
Just hope this isn't the new normal. I realise that our Government have made it very difficult and bureaucratic to leave the UK, but if it carries on (the weather is one of many reasons why I dislike the contemporary UK) I'm going to seriously consider leaving. Endless rain and gloom for 9-10 months of the year is no fun.
Things aint lookin so good for April. More gloom and misery. From netweather forum
I see what you mean, the whole pattern after the 7th in particular on the GFS 00z has July 2023 written all over it though at this time of year the synoptics will not produce dangerous heat in southern Europe.
The only comfort I can see is that April is often dissimilar to summer in terms of synoptics. Those synoptics would produce a disastrous summer for both the UK and rest of NW Europe, and southern Europe, if they were to recur in July and August.
The GFS 00z is even worse than yesterday if that was at all possible. Suggests a first half of April perhaps even worse than 1983, 1998, 2000 or 2012. And far worse than the much-maligned 1986.
I've never seen an April so dominated by endless cyclonic SW-ly conditions in the south. Remember 1998 and 2000 had a good few northerly interludes and 2012 was more NW-ly meaning it was brighter in between the rain belts, the first and second weeks being half-decent.
Just hope it's wrong!
Really seems something strange is going on if we have possibly the wettest first half of April on record following 9 months of prolonged wet conditions.
I know I’ve been in the tropics for months but Jesus it’s COLD - it’s nearly April?
Sunday was a decent day in that it was sunny but it was till cold. Beats the constant clag and rain.
ChatGPT tells me it should be 12C max on March 27 in london
It’s 9C max and “feels like” 7C with zero sun, light rain and a stiff chilly breeze
So I’m not imagining it. Weather feels 5C below average - because it is
If I was under 30 I think that the triple lock would have me looking seriously for emigration. It is an outrageous penalty on the young and poor for the benefit of the old and comfortable.
221.20 a week is not comfortable. Taper it down to 50% for all based on income only as a mitigation
I agree it isn't. But what pisses me off is that the rate at which it is paid is the same for those with private or public sector pensions of £60K a year or more. We need to spend more on poor pensioners and much, much less on those who have other income. The Universal state pension is an idiocy which should be abolished.
As for some poor sod on minimum wage on zero hours with University fee debts to pay forking out for it in his taxes? It is grossly immoral.
Agreed. Taper it down based on other income. Although everyone should get 'some' pension
No, keep the triple lock for all pensioners. But reduce the threshold for the 40% tax band (what is it?, 45K, 50K ) for those of pensionable age.
Abolish higher rate tax relief on private pension contributions. Funny how the pundits who benefit from this prefer to concentrate on the triple lock.
Yes this is a far more sensible measure than trying to reduce some people's pensions. And the lifetime limit should be brought back - people should not be given tax breaks to accumulate private pensions of £50k+ pa.
If I was under 30 I think that the triple lock would have me looking seriously for emigration. It is an outrageous penalty on the young and poor for the benefit of the old and comfortable.
The full state pension is currently a meagre £10,600 pa, lower than most (all?) comparable countries, and not much to live on if a pensioner has no other significant source of income. It would be better policy to maintain the triple lock until the differential narrows further, while at the same time using the tax system to claw back much more money from those who also benefit from a significant private/public sector pension and/or large savings.
It isn't a lot.
However, imagine a world with 30 people in it. 10 are pensioners. 5 are stay at home parents or otherwise not working. 5 are children. And 10 are in work.
In that scenario, £10k of every worker's income goes off to pay pensions, before *any* other expenses.
The issue is not the size of the pension, it is the fact that what was affordable when you had lots of people of working age, and few pensioners, becomes very unaffordable if you have rising life expectancy and a low birth rate.
Having said that, the expectation was (and maybe for some still is) that National Insurance meant that for each contributing individual a gigantic 'sovereign wealth' fund was being established, just as with private pensions, which by prudent management and long term investment would pay out from the giant fruits of past growth the modest upkeep of the 'aged, impotent and infirm'.
Please don't tell me that during easy going times this was forgotten and not enough collected, and what was collected was spent on yesterday's fripperies.
Surely that wealth fund isn't now valued at minus £2.3 trillion?
If I was under 30 I think that the triple lock would have me looking seriously for emigration. It is an outrageous penalty on the young and poor for the benefit of the old and comfortable.
The full state pension is currently a meagre £10,600 pa, lower than most (all?) comparable countries, and not much to live on if a pensioner has no other significant source of income. It would be better policy to maintain the triple lock until the differential narrows further, while at the same time using the tax system to claw back much more money from those who also benefit from a significant private/public sector pension and/or large savings.
It isn't a lot.
However, imagine a world with 30 people in it. 10 are pensioners. 5 are stay at home parents or otherwise not working. 5 are children. And 10 are in work.
In that scenario, £10k of every worker's income goes off to pay pensions, before *any* other expenses.
The issue is not the size of the pension, it is the fact that what was affordable when you had lots of people of working age, and few pensioners, becomes very unaffordable if you have rising life expectancy and a low birth rate.
Which is why we will continue to see high levels of immigration despite what politicians may say. If we don't make enough people in the UK then we have to import them.
Things aint lookin so good for April. More gloom and misery. From netweather forum
I see what you mean, the whole pattern after the 7th in particular on the GFS 00z has July 2023 written all over it though at this time of year the synoptics will not produce dangerous heat in southern Europe.
The only comfort I can see is that April is often dissimilar to summer in terms of synoptics. Those synoptics would produce a disastrous summer for both the UK and rest of NW Europe, and southern Europe, if they were to recur in July and August.
The GFS 00z is even worse than yesterday if that was at all possible. Suggests a first half of April perhaps even worse than 1983, 1998, 2000 or 2012. And far worse than the much-maligned 1986.
I've never seen an April so dominated by endless cyclonic SW-ly conditions in the south. Remember 1998 and 2000 had a good few northerly interludes and 2012 was more NW-ly meaning it was brighter in between the rain belts, the first and second weeks being half-decent.
Just hope it's wrong!
Really seems something strange is going on if we have possibly the wettest first half of April on record following 9 months of prolonged wet conditions.
April hasn't started yet. Models can and often do flip quite suddenly.
Besides, what we are seeing is typical weather. A bit shit, but we've had shit weather before. We also sometimes get amazing periods of weather (such as the first covid spring). Things average out in the end,
Things aint lookin so good for April. More gloom and misery. From netweather forum
I see what you mean, the whole pattern after the 7th in particular on the GFS 00z has July 2023 written all over it though at this time of year the synoptics will not produce dangerous heat in southern Europe.
The only comfort I can see is that April is often dissimilar to summer in terms of synoptics. Those synoptics would produce a disastrous summer for both the UK and rest of NW Europe, and southern Europe, if they were to recur in July and August.
The GFS 00z is even worse than yesterday if that was at all possible. Suggests a first half of April perhaps even worse than 1983, 1998, 2000 or 2012. And far worse than the much-maligned 1986.
I've never seen an April so dominated by endless cyclonic SW-ly conditions in the south. Remember 1998 and 2000 had a good few northerly interludes and 2012 was more NW-ly meaning it was brighter in between the rain belts, the first and second weeks being half-decent.
Just hope it's wrong!
Really seems something strange is going on if we have possibly the wettest first half of April on record following 9 months of prolonged wet conditions.
I know I’ve been in the tropics for months but Jesus it’s COLD - it’s nearly April?
Sunday was a decent day in that it was sunny but it was till cold. Beats the constant clag and rain.
ChatGPT tells me it should be 12C max on March 27 in london
It’s 9C max and “feels like” 7C with zero sun, light rain and a stiff chilly breeze
So I’m not imagining it. Weather feels 5C below average - because it is
Welcome to the concept of weather. The average max temp does not mean evert day should max out to that.
You clearly are not (yet) an expert in statistics to add to your portfolio of expertise.
If I was under 30 I think that the triple lock would have me looking seriously for emigration. It is an outrageous penalty on the young and poor for the benefit of the old and comfortable.
The full state pension is currently a meagre £10,600 pa, lower than most (all?) comparable countries, and not much to live on if a pensioner has no other significant source of income. It would be better policy to maintain the triple lock until the differential narrows further, while at the same time using the tax system to claw back much more money from those who also benefit from a significant private/public sector pension and/or large savings.
It isn't a lot.
However, imagine a world with 30 people in it. 10 are pensioners. 5 are stay at home parents or otherwise not working. 5 are children. And 10 are in work.
In that scenario, £10k of every worker's income goes off to pay pensions, before *any* other expenses.
The issue is not the size of the pension, it is the fact that what was affordable when you had lots of people of working age, and few pensioners, becomes very unaffordable if you have rising life expectancy and a low birth rate.
And one out of those ten has a full time job administering the taxes and benefits system...
Things aint lookin so good for April. More gloom and misery. From netweather forum
I see what you mean, the whole pattern after the 7th in particular on the GFS 00z has July 2023 written all over it though at this time of year the synoptics will not produce dangerous heat in southern Europe.
The only comfort I can see is that April is often dissimilar to summer in terms of synoptics. Those synoptics would produce a disastrous summer for both the UK and rest of NW Europe, and southern Europe, if they were to recur in July and August.
The GFS 00z is even worse than yesterday if that was at all possible. Suggests a first half of April perhaps even worse than 1983, 1998, 2000 or 2012. And far worse than the much-maligned 1986.
I've never seen an April so dominated by endless cyclonic SW-ly conditions in the south. Remember 1998 and 2000 had a good few northerly interludes and 2012 was more NW-ly meaning it was brighter in between the rain belts, the first and second weeks being half-decent.
Just hope it's wrong!
Really seems something strange is going on if we have possibly the wettest first half of April on record following 9 months of prolonged wet conditions.
April hasn't started yet. Models can and often do flip quite suddenly.
Besides, what we are seeing is typical weather. A bit shit, but we've had shit weather before. We also sometimes get amazing periods of weather (such as the first covid spring). Things average out in the end,
Strange how bad the weather has been since September 2022 though.
If I was under 30 I think that the triple lock would have me looking seriously for emigration. It is an outrageous penalty on the young and poor for the benefit of the old and comfortable.
The full state pension is currently a meagre £10,600 pa, lower than most (all?) comparable countries, and not much to live on if a pensioner has no other significant source of income. It would be better policy to maintain the triple lock until the differential narrows further, while at the same time using the tax system to claw back much more money from those who also benefit from a significant private/public sector pension and/or large savings.
It isn't a lot.
However, imagine a world with 30 people in it. 10 are pensioners. 5 are stay at home parents or otherwise not working. 5 are children. And 10 are in work.
In that scenario, £10k of every worker's income goes off to pay pensions, before *any* other expenses.
The issue is not the size of the pension, it is the fact that what was affordable when you had lots of people of working age, and few pensioners, becomes very unaffordable if you have rising life expectancy and a low birth rate.
Having said that, the expectation was (and maybe for some still is) that National Insurance meant that for each contributing individual a gigantic 'sovereign wealth' fund was being established, just as with private pensions, which by prudent management and long term investment would pay out from the giant fruits of past growth the modest upkeep of the 'aged, impotent and infirm'.
Please don't tell me that during easy going times this was forgotten and not enough collected, and what was collected was spent on yesterday's fripperies.
Surely that wealth fund isn't now valued at minus £2.3 trillion?
The second best time to start a sovereign wealth fund is now. The Blackrock big cheese said on the last thread that funds like his could help pensioners. Maybe that should be extended to NICs for state pensions.
Manchester police re-investigating Angela Rayner council house claims
Labour’s deputy leader is accused of breaking electoral law for allegedly giving false information relating to capital gains tax on her former Stockport house
Police are reassessing claims that Angela Rayner broke electoral law after receiving a complaint from the deputy chairman of the Conservative Party.
James Daly, the MP for Bury North, said Greater Manchester police had failed to properly investigate claims the Labour deputy leader may have broken the law in the early 2010s when she lived between two council houses in Stockport.
On Monday the police confirmed that a detective chief inspector had been assigned to reconsider the case, putting pressure on Rayner again, days after she launched a fightback in the media.
Things aint lookin so good for April. More gloom and misery. From netweather forum
I see what you mean, the whole pattern after the 7th in particular on the GFS 00z has July 2023 written all over it though at this time of year the synoptics will not produce dangerous heat in southern Europe.
The only comfort I can see is that April is often dissimilar to summer in terms of synoptics. Those synoptics would produce a disastrous summer for both the UK and rest of NW Europe, and southern Europe, if they were to recur in July and August.
The GFS 00z is even worse than yesterday if that was at all possible. Suggests a first half of April perhaps even worse than 1983, 1998, 2000 or 2012. And far worse than the much-maligned 1986.
I've never seen an April so dominated by endless cyclonic SW-ly conditions in the south. Remember 1998 and 2000 had a good few northerly interludes and 2012 was more NW-ly meaning it was brighter in between the rain belts, the first and second weeks being half-decent.
Just hope it's wrong!
Really seems something strange is going on if we have possibly the wettest first half of April on record following 9 months of prolonged wet conditions.
April hasn't started yet. Models can and often do flip quite suddenly.
Besides, what we are seeing is typical weather. A bit shit, but we've had shit weather before. We also sometimes get amazing periods of weather (such as the first covid spring). Things average out in the end,
Strange how bad the weather has been since September 2022 though.
I've no idea what the weather has been like in Moscow
Seriously though, people have a very poor recollection of weather. Its why myths persist about what historic weather was like. UK winters in the south have rarely been that cold and snowy. In general we don't get long, settled hot spells in summer. 1963, 1947 (both cold) and 1976 (hot) are the extreme outliers.
When I recall Devon holidays in the late 70's and 80's we spent every day on the beach. I can only remember one wet day (oddly the day of the Birmingham Super Prix, for those that recall). Yet that is not bourn out by the data. My memory is faulty.
Things aint lookin so good for April. More gloom and misery. From netweather forum
I see what you mean, the whole pattern after the 7th in particular on the GFS 00z has July 2023 written all over it though at this time of year the synoptics will not produce dangerous heat in southern Europe.
The only comfort I can see is that April is often dissimilar to summer in terms of synoptics. Those synoptics would produce a disastrous summer for both the UK and rest of NW Europe, and southern Europe, if they were to recur in July and August.
The GFS 00z is even worse than yesterday if that was at all possible. Suggests a first half of April perhaps even worse than 1983, 1998, 2000 or 2012. And far worse than the much-maligned 1986.
I've never seen an April so dominated by endless cyclonic SW-ly conditions in the south. Remember 1998 and 2000 had a good few northerly interludes and 2012 was more NW-ly meaning it was brighter in between the rain belts, the first and second weeks being half-decent.
Just hope it's wrong!
Really seems something strange is going on if we have possibly the wettest first half of April on record following 9 months of prolonged wet conditions.
I know I’ve been in the tropics for months but Jesus it’s COLD - it’s nearly April?
Sunday was a decent day in that it was sunny but it was till cold. Beats the constant clag and rain.
ChatGPT tells me it should be 12C max on March 27 in london
It’s 9C max and “feels like” 7C with zero sun, light rain and a stiff chilly breeze
So I’m not imagining it. Weather feels 5C below average - because it is
Welcome to the concept of weather. The average max temp does not mean evert day should max out to that.
You clearly are not (yet) an expert in statistics to add to your portfolio of expertise.
But I follow the weather forums being quoted by @Trent
We do seem to be in an unusually prolonged dull wet period of weather - possibly since September 2023. It’s not the temperatures - they’ve been mild if anything. It’s the rain and lack of sun
However I confess this is all second hand. I’ve probably been abroad for most of that time
Things aint lookin so good for April. More gloom and misery. From netweather forum
I see what you mean, the whole pattern after the 7th in particular on the GFS 00z has July 2023 written all over it though at this time of year the synoptics will not produce dangerous heat in southern Europe.
The only comfort I can see is that April is often dissimilar to summer in terms of synoptics. Those synoptics would produce a disastrous summer for both the UK and rest of NW Europe, and southern Europe, if they were to recur in July and August.
The GFS 00z is even worse than yesterday if that was at all possible. Suggests a first half of April perhaps even worse than 1983, 1998, 2000 or 2012. And far worse than the much-maligned 1986.
I've never seen an April so dominated by endless cyclonic SW-ly conditions in the south. Remember 1998 and 2000 had a good few northerly interludes and 2012 was more NW-ly meaning it was brighter in between the rain belts, the first and second weeks being half-decent.
Just hope it's wrong!
Really seems something strange is going on if we have possibly the wettest first half of April on record following 9 months of prolonged wet conditions.
April hasn't started yet. Models can and often do flip quite suddenly.
Besides, what we are seeing is typical weather. A bit shit, but we've had shit weather before. We also sometimes get amazing periods of weather (such as the first covid spring). Things average out in the end,
Strange how bad the weather has been since September 2022 though.
Hmm, should we blame Truss? Or is it God's wrath for the overthrow of Boris?
If I was under 30 I think that the triple lock would have me looking seriously for emigration. It is an outrageous penalty on the young and poor for the benefit of the old and comfortable.
The full state pension is currently a meagre £10,600 pa, lower than most (all?) comparable countries, and not much to live on if a pensioner has no other significant source of income. It would be better policy to maintain the triple lock until the differential narrows further, while at the same time using the tax system to claw back much more money from those who also benefit from a significant private/public sector pension and/or large savings.
It isn't a lot.
However, imagine a world with 30 people in it. 10 are pensioners. 5 are stay at home parents or otherwise not working. 5 are children. And 10 are in work.
In that scenario, £10k of every worker's income goes off to pay pensions, before *any* other expenses.
The issue is not the size of the pension, it is the fact that what was affordable when you had lots of people of working age, and few pensioners, becomes very unaffordable if you have rising life expectancy and a low birth rate.
And one out of those ten has a full time job administering the taxes and benefits system...
It would be 2 out of 10 if pensions were means-tested on top.
Things aint lookin so good for April. More gloom and misery. From netweather forum
I see what you mean, the whole pattern after the 7th in particular on the GFS 00z has July 2023 written all over it though at this time of year the synoptics will not produce dangerous heat in southern Europe.
The only comfort I can see is that April is often dissimilar to summer in terms of synoptics. Those synoptics would produce a disastrous summer for both the UK and rest of NW Europe, and southern Europe, if they were to recur in July and August.
The GFS 00z is even worse than yesterday if that was at all possible. Suggests a first half of April perhaps even worse than 1983, 1998, 2000 or 2012. And far worse than the much-maligned 1986.
I've never seen an April so dominated by endless cyclonic SW-ly conditions in the south. Remember 1998 and 2000 had a good few northerly interludes and 2012 was more NW-ly meaning it was brighter in between the rain belts, the first and second weeks being half-decent.
Just hope it's wrong!
Really seems something strange is going on if we have possibly the wettest first half of April on record following 9 months of prolonged wet conditions.
April hasn't started yet. Models can and often do flip quite suddenly.
Besides, what we are seeing is typical weather. A bit shit, but we've had shit weather before. We also sometimes get amazing periods of weather (such as the first covid spring). Things average out in the end,
Strange how bad the weather has been since September 2022 though.
Manchester police re-investigating Angela Rayner council house claims
Labour’s deputy leader is accused of breaking electoral law for allegedly giving false information relating to capital gains tax on her former Stockport house
Police are reassessing claims that Angela Rayner broke electoral law after receiving a complaint from the deputy chairman of the Conservative Party.
James Daly, the MP for Bury North, said Greater Manchester police had failed to properly investigate claims the Labour deputy leader may have broken the law in the early 2010s when she lived between two council houses in Stockport.
On Monday the police confirmed that a detective chief inspector had been assigned to reconsider the case, putting pressure on Rayner again, days after she launched a fightback in the media.
Things aint lookin so good for April. More gloom and misery. From netweather forum
I see what you mean, the whole pattern after the 7th in particular on the GFS 00z has July 2023 written all over it though at this time of year the synoptics will not produce dangerous heat in southern Europe.
The only comfort I can see is that April is often dissimilar to summer in terms of synoptics. Those synoptics would produce a disastrous summer for both the UK and rest of NW Europe, and southern Europe, if they were to recur in July and August.
The GFS 00z is even worse than yesterday if that was at all possible. Suggests a first half of April perhaps even worse than 1983, 1998, 2000 or 2012. And far worse than the much-maligned 1986.
I've never seen an April so dominated by endless cyclonic SW-ly conditions in the south. Remember 1998 and 2000 had a good few northerly interludes and 2012 was more NW-ly meaning it was brighter in between the rain belts, the first and second weeks being half-decent.
Just hope it's wrong!
Really seems something strange is going on if we have possibly the wettest first half of April on record following 9 months of prolonged wet conditions.
April hasn't started yet. Models can and often do flip quite suddenly.
Besides, what we are seeing is typical weather. A bit shit, but we've had shit weather before. We also sometimes get amazing periods of weather (such as the first covid spring). Things average out in the end,
Strange how bad the weather has been since September 2022 though.
I've no idea what the weather has been like in Moscow
Seriously though, people have a very poor recollection of weather. Its why myths persist about what historic weather was like. UK winters in the south have rarely been that cold and snowy. In general we don't get long, settled hot spells in summer. 1963, 1947 (both cold) and 1976 (hot) are the extreme outliers.
When I recall Devon holidays in the late 70's and 80's we spent every day on the beach. I can only remember one wet day (oddly the day of the Birmingham Super Prix, for those that recall). Yet that is not bourn out by the data. My memory is faulty.
Summers of 83 and 84 were very good. In those summers it would have been possible you spent every day on the beach. The Uk climate was colder in the 1980s yet in that decade we had 3 excellent summers 1983,84 and 89. In the much warmer 2010s we only had 2 excellent summers 2013 and 2018.
Models offer little meaningful hope, though the week of April 8th is slightly better. The Atlantic just seems to be going on and on and on as if it were still midwinter, no sign of the usual blocked conditions of spring. Met Office forecast looks dire for the south for most of April; looking possible now that April will be the 10th wet month in a row. Looking at the models I do wonder whether low lying areas of the southwest in particular are heading for catastrophic flooding in the next week or so.
This really is an unprecedented weather event within my lifetime. Summer 2023, autumn 2023, winter 23/24 and now spring 2024 all likely to be amongst the 10 worst examples of the given season that I've experienced. Constant endless cyclonic SW-lies with only short breaks, it's hard to believe that the many changes of season since the end of June last year have not triggered a lasting disruption of the pattern.
Just hope this isn't the new normal. I realise that our Government have made it very difficult and bureaucratic to leave the UK, but if it carries on (the weather is one of many reasons why I dislike the contemporary UK) I'm going to seriously consider leaving. Endless rain and gloom for 9-10 months of the year is no fun.
I moved house in November 2022 and it feels like it's been raining ever since because I've spent much of the time waiting for it to stop raining so I can do things externally. (Tbf, Feb, May and Sep/Oct 23 and Jan 24 were very dry).
I'm sure we get much longer runs of bad weather than we used to (and also good). In the last couple of years I've started noting whenever there is some rain on any given day. In February it rained on 21 out of 29 days, and I might have missed a couple. So far in March, despite seeming to be a bit dryer, it has rained on 18. Without doing any research at all, I would guess that a typical year for SE England would be about half that number.
Things aint lookin so good for April. More gloom and misery. From netweather forum
I see what you mean, the whole pattern after the 7th in particular on the GFS 00z has July 2023 written all over it though at this time of year the synoptics will not produce dangerous heat in southern Europe.
The only comfort I can see is that April is often dissimilar to summer in terms of synoptics. Those synoptics would produce a disastrous summer for both the UK and rest of NW Europe, and southern Europe, if they were to recur in July and August.
The GFS 00z is even worse than yesterday if that was at all possible. Suggests a first half of April perhaps even worse than 1983, 1998, 2000 or 2012. And far worse than the much-maligned 1986.
I've never seen an April so dominated by endless cyclonic SW-ly conditions in the south. Remember 1998 and 2000 had a good few northerly interludes and 2012 was more NW-ly meaning it was brighter in between the rain belts, the first and second weeks being half-decent.
Just hope it's wrong!
Really seems something strange is going on if we have possibly the wettest first half of April on record following 9 months of prolonged wet conditions.
I know I’ve been in the tropics for months but Jesus it’s COLD - it’s nearly April?
Sunday was a decent day in that it was sunny but it was till cold. Beats the constant clag and rain.
ChatGPT tells me it should be 12C max on March 27 in london
It’s 9C max and “feels like” 7C with zero sun, light rain and a stiff chilly breeze
So I’m not imagining it. Weather feels 5C below average - because it is
Welcome to the concept of weather. The average max temp does not mean evert day should max out to that.
You clearly are not (yet) an expert in statistics to add to your portfolio of expertise.
Leon/Trent talking to to himself about bog-standard weather variations on a politics site, while copying and pasting posts from a weather site that we can all look at if we want to, is a whole new low of mundane shit.
I think I preferred the endless boredom of PB Classic Guess Boris' Weight, which just goes to show how utterly tedious this weather chat is. The sun is shining outside my north London kitchen and I'm off for a walk.
Well they will have to be ponying up some more cash soon. Biden administration nominees are pushing for trillions in reparations for slavery. The UN looks set to agree to a special tribunal to address this.
Models offer little meaningful hope, though the week of April 8th is slightly better. The Atlantic just seems to be going on and on and on as if it were still midwinter, no sign of the usual blocked conditions of spring. Met Office forecast looks dire for the south for most of April; looking possible now that April will be the 10th wet month in a row. Looking at the models I do wonder whether low lying areas of the southwest in particular are heading for catastrophic flooding in the next week or so.
This really is an unprecedented weather event within my lifetime. Summer 2023, autumn 2023, winter 23/24 and now spring 2024 all likely to be amongst the 10 worst examples of the given season that I've experienced. Constant endless cyclonic SW-lies with only short breaks, it's hard to believe that the many changes of season since the end of June last year have not triggered a lasting disruption of the pattern.
Just hope this isn't the new normal. I realise that our Government have made it very difficult and bureaucratic to leave the UK, but if it carries on (the weather is one of many reasons why I dislike the contemporary UK) I'm going to seriously consider leaving. Endless rain and gloom for 9-10 months of the year is no fun.
I moved house in November 2022 and it feels like it's been raining ever since because I've spent much of the time waiting for it to stop raining so I can do things externally. (Tbf, Feb, May and Sep/Oct 23 and Jan 24 were very dry).
I'm sure we get much longer runs of bad weather than we used to (and also good). In the last couple of years I've started noting whenever there is some rain on any given day. In February it rained on 21 out of 29 days, and I might have missed a couple. So far in March, despite seeming to be a bit dryer, it has rained on 18. Without doing any research at all, I would guess that a typical year for SE England would be about half that number.
Well they will have to be ponying up some more cash soon. Biden administration nominees are pushing for trillions in reparations for slavery. The UN looks set to agree to a special tribunal to address this.
Well they will have to be ponying up some more cash soon. Biden administration nominees are pushing for trillions in reparations for slavery. The UN looks set to agree to a special tribunal to address this.
Models offer little meaningful hope, though the week of April 8th is slightly better. The Atlantic just seems to be going on and on and on as if it were still midwinter, no sign of the usual blocked conditions of spring. Met Office forecast looks dire for the south for most of April; looking possible now that April will be the 10th wet month in a row. Looking at the models I do wonder whether low lying areas of the southwest in particular are heading for catastrophic flooding in the next week or so.
This really is an unprecedented weather event within my lifetime. Summer 2023, autumn 2023, winter 23/24 and now spring 2024 all likely to be amongst the 10 worst examples of the given season that I've experienced. Constant endless cyclonic SW-lies with only short breaks, it's hard to believe that the many changes of season since the end of June last year have not triggered a lasting disruption of the pattern.
Just hope this isn't the new normal. I realise that our Government have made it very difficult and bureaucratic to leave the UK, but if it carries on (the weather is one of many reasons why I dislike the contemporary UK) I'm going to seriously consider leaving. Endless rain and gloom for 9-10 months of the year is no fun.
I moved house in November 2022 and it feels like it's been raining ever since because I've spent much of the time waiting for it to stop raining so I can do things externally. (Tbf, Feb, May and Sep/Oct 23 and Jan 24 were very dry).
I'm sure we get much longer runs of bad weather than we used to (and also good). In the last couple of years I've started noting whenever there is some rain on any given day. In February it rained on 21 out of 29 days, and I might have missed a couple. So far in March, despite seeming to be a bit dryer, it has rained on 18. Without doing any research at all, I would guess that a typical year for SE England would be about half that number.
So it's you to blame ?
Must be. I previously only used to have this effect in the summer months by trying to play cricket.
Models offer little meaningful hope, though the week of April 8th is slightly better. The Atlantic just seems to be going on and on and on as if it were still midwinter, no sign of the usual blocked conditions of spring. Met Office forecast looks dire for the south for most of April; looking possible now that April will be the 10th wet month in a row. Looking at the models I do wonder whether low lying areas of the southwest in particular are heading for catastrophic flooding in the next week or so.
This really is an unprecedented weather event within my lifetime. Summer 2023, autumn 2023, winter 23/24 and now spring 2024 all likely to be amongst the 10 worst examples of the given season that I've experienced. Constant endless cyclonic SW-lies with only short breaks, it's hard to believe that the many changes of season since the end of June last year have not triggered a lasting disruption of the pattern.
Just hope this isn't the new normal. I realise that our Government have made it very difficult and bureaucratic to leave the UK, but if it carries on (the weather is one of many reasons why I dislike the contemporary UK) I'm going to seriously consider leaving. Endless rain and gloom for 9-10 months of the year is no fun.
With a name like Trent I'd have thought you'd like the wet weather!
It does seem relentless. But it will change. And then we'll have a hosepipe ban in August.
Manchester police re-investigating Angela Rayner council house claims
Labour’s deputy leader is accused of breaking electoral law for allegedly giving false information relating to capital gains tax on her former Stockport house
Police are reassessing claims that Angela Rayner broke electoral law after receiving a complaint from the deputy chairman of the Conservative Party.
James Daly, the MP for Bury North, said Greater Manchester police had failed to properly investigate claims the Labour deputy leader may have broken the law in the early 2010s when she lived between two council houses in Stockport.
On Monday the police confirmed that a detective chief inspector had been assigned to reconsider the case, putting pressure on Rayner again, days after she launched a fightback in the media.
FPT (and apologies for being scandalously off thread, but I kind of need an answer...)
May I request the assistance of the PB Brains Trust?
Mrs PtP has a bijou flat in Hampstead. The remaining lease is approximately 100 years. She wishes to extend it. The landlord, Camden Council, is remarkably diffident. She has found a local lawyer who is used to dealing with them (and clearly holds them in low esteem) and thinks it will cost about £8k all told to secure a 90 year extension. I'm inclined to tell her to go ahead but am dimly aware of changes proposed to alter the law on leaseholds. I am too lazy to research the implications and thought I would ask you lot instead, especially as I'm likely to get the kind of frankness you cannot expect from professional scribes on the subject.
Any thoughts, anyone?
Also FPT
I extended the lease on my leasehold flat by about a century and reduced the ground rent to a peppercorn. You have the statutory right to do this. A lawyer handles the paperwork and it took me about two years as the freehold company were awkward. It cost me about £9k. I think it was worth it. Future legislation changes *may* affect this but that's true of everything.
If I was under 30 I think that the triple lock would have me looking seriously for emigration. It is an outrageous penalty on the young and poor for the benefit of the old and comfortable.
The full state pension is currently a meagre £10,600 pa, lower than most (all?) comparable countries, and not much to live on if a pensioner has no other significant source of income. It would be better policy to maintain the triple lock until the differential narrows further, while at the same time using the tax system to claw back much more money from those who also benefit from a significant private/public sector pension and/or large savings.
It isn't a lot.
However, imagine a world with 30 people in it. 10 are pensioners. 5 are stay at home parents or otherwise not working. 5 are children. And 10 are in work.
In that scenario, £10k of every worker's income goes off to pay pensions, before *any* other expenses.
The issue is not the size of the pension, it is the fact that what was affordable when you had lots of people of working age, and few pensioners, becomes very unaffordable if you have rising life expectancy and a low birth rate.
And one out of those ten has a full time job administering the taxes and benefits system...
And I didn't even mention that those retirees cost 10x as much in healthcare costs as their younger countrymen.
The newly-elected MP for Uxbridge, Steve Tuckwell, shows his support for free-market economics against the faceless bureaucrats of the British National Chippy Corporation. I don't understand how this is even supposed to work, and there must be easier ways to get your face in the local rag.
Wait: did @Trent really say that a daily maximum temperature 5 degrees below average was "unprecedented"?
That word must mean something different where he is.
Well quite. Back in 2018 with the Beast from the East we had daytime maxes below zero for Feb 28th and Mar 1. Unprecedented? No - just good old day to day variation.
On topic: FWIW, the average monthly US Social Security benefit is $1907. https://faq.ssa.gov/en-us/Topic/article/KA-01903 It is indexed for inflation, using the Consumer Price Index. (I think it would not decrease, in the unlikely event of deflation.)
(Recently, the WaPo's fact checker, Glenn Kessler, argued, correctly, I believe, that the presidents most responsible for the US debt problem are Lyndon Johnson and his successor, Richard Nixon. Caveat: I haven't checked Kessler's arithmetic.)
Is there a reasonable source for that claim? If Yellen said it, there should be a report or something.
All I can see searching for that claim is nonsense sites and the Daily Mail (some might not separate those 2).
It's obviously bullshit, because said family *is* the beneficiary of Social Security. You are counting their possible future entitlements as a debt... Even though the debt is to... errr... themselves.
To repeat a point I've made before, the triple lock benefits future OAPs more than current ones because it means the state pension will be more valuable than it is today and they will have longer to receive it. If younger people succeed in reducing it they will regret it. Which is not to say it has to go on forever. The object is gradually to restore UK pensions to a level comparable with similar western European countries.
And what underpins your naïve assumption that future pensioners will actually get it?
Our generation has had the rug pulled at every turn. Tuition fees introduced before turning 18, housing construction blocked by NIMBYs, taxes solely on earned-income jacked up (only recently started to be reversed) etc, etc, etc
The idea that we'll actually get the pension, let alone a triple locked one, is a brave assumption.
Making the pension unaffordable simply brings forward the day that the pension gets phased out/means tested, probably when we're about to retire and the boomer vote has died.
I think most sensible people of your age will be planning on private pension provision, as the state pension will not cut the mustard. That said it will still be there, and should be part of your planning.
Therein lies the dilemma. If you save for a private pension and the state pension gets means tested as per @DavidL you will be penalised for your financial prudence.
Things aint lookin so good for April. More gloom and misery. From netweather forum
I see what you mean, the whole pattern after the 7th in particular on the GFS 00z has July 2023 written all over it though at this time of year the synoptics will not produce dangerous heat in southern Europe.
The only comfort I can see is that April is often dissimilar to summer in terms of synoptics. Those synoptics would produce a disastrous summer for both the UK and rest of NW Europe, and southern Europe, if they were to recur in July and August.
The GFS 00z is even worse than yesterday if that was at all possible. Suggests a first half of April perhaps even worse than 1983, 1998, 2000 or 2012. And far worse than the much-maligned 1986.
I've never seen an April so dominated by endless cyclonic SW-ly conditions in the south. Remember 1998 and 2000 had a good few northerly interludes and 2012 was more NW-ly meaning it was brighter in between the rain belts, the first and second weeks being half-decent.
Just hope it's wrong!
Really seems something strange is going on if we have possibly the wettest first half of April on record following 9 months of prolonged wet conditions.
I know I’ve been in the tropics for months but Jesus it’s COLD - it’s nearly April?
Sunday was a decent day in that it was sunny but it was till cold. Beats the constant clag and rain.
ChatGPT tells me it should be 12C max on March 27 in london
It’s 9C max and “feels like” 7C with zero sun, light rain and a stiff chilly breeze
So I’m not imagining it. Weather feels 5C below average - because it is
Welcome to the concept of weather. The average max temp does not mean evert day should max out to that.
You clearly are not (yet) an expert in statistics to add to your portfolio of expertise.
Leon/Trent talking to to himself about bog-standard weather variations on a politics site, while copying and pasting posts from a weather site that we can all look at if we want to, is a whole new low of mundane shit.
I think I preferred the endless boredom of PB Classic Guess Boris' Weight, which just goes to show how utterly tedious this weather chat is. The sun is shining outside my north London kitchen and I'm off for a walk.
It’s nearly as boring as
1. The advantages of the cashless society
And
2. People presuming that every new poster must be me, sockpuppeting. It ain’t. Ever
FPT (and apologies for being scandalously off thread, but I kind of need an answer...)
May I request the assistance of the PB Brains Trust?
Mrs PtP has a bijou flat in Hampstead. The remaining lease is approximately 100 years. She wishes to extend it. The landlord, Camden Council, is remarkably diffident. She has found a local lawyer who is used to dealing with them (and clearly holds them in low esteem) and thinks it will cost about £8k all told to secure a 90 year extension. I'm inclined to tell her to go ahead but am dimly aware of changes proposed to alter the law on leaseholds. I am too lazy to research the implications and thought I would ask you lot instead, especially as I'm likely to get the kind of frankness you cannot expect from professional scribes on the subject.
Any thoughts, anyone?
Also FPT
I extended the lease on my leasehold flat by about a century and reduced the ground rent to a peppercorn. You have the statutory right to do this. A lawyer handles the paperwork and it took me about two years as the freehold company were awkward. It cost me about £9k. I think it was worth it. Future legislation changes *may* affect this but that's true of everything.
If I was under 30 I think that the triple lock would have me looking seriously for emigration. It is an outrageous penalty on the young and poor for the benefit of the old and comfortable.
221.20 a week is not comfortable. Taper it down to 50% for all based on income only as a mitigation
I agree it isn't. But what pisses me off is that the rate at which it is paid is the same for those with private or public sector pensions of £60K a year or more. We need to spend more on poor pensioners and much, much less on those who have other income. The Universal state pension is an idiocy which should be abolished.
As for some poor sod on minimum wage on zero hours with University fee debts to pay forking out for it in his taxes? It is grossly immoral.
Though in such a scenario the recipient would be paying 40% tax on the state pension, so getting a reduced pension in fact.
Things aint lookin so good for April. More gloom and misery. From netweather forum
I see what you mean, the whole pattern after the 7th in particular on the GFS 00z has July 2023 written all over it though at this time of year the synoptics will not produce dangerous heat in southern Europe.
The only comfort I can see is that April is often dissimilar to summer in terms of synoptics. Those synoptics would produce a disastrous summer for both the UK and rest of NW Europe, and southern Europe, if they were to recur in July and August.
The GFS 00z is even worse than yesterday if that was at all possible. Suggests a first half of April perhaps even worse than 1983, 1998, 2000 or 2012. And far worse than the much-maligned 1986.
I've never seen an April so dominated by endless cyclonic SW-ly conditions in the south. Remember 1998 and 2000 had a good few northerly interludes and 2012 was more NW-ly meaning it was brighter in between the rain belts, the first and second weeks being half-decent.
Just hope it's wrong!
Really seems something strange is going on if we have possibly the wettest first half of April on record following 9 months of prolonged wet conditions.
April hasn't started yet. Models can and often do flip quite suddenly.
Besides, what we are seeing is typical weather. A bit shit, but we've had shit weather before. We also sometimes get amazing periods of weather (such as the first covid spring). Things average out in the end,
Strange how bad the weather has been since September 2022 though.
September 2023 not 2022
Indeed: last summer was a scorcher in London. Sufficiently hot that we got air-conditioning installed. (Haven't had a chance to use it yet.)
Things aint lookin so good for April. More gloom and misery. From netweather forum
I see what you mean, the whole pattern after the 7th in particular on the GFS 00z has July 2023 written all over it though at this time of year the synoptics will not produce dangerous heat in southern Europe.
The only comfort I can see is that April is often dissimilar to summer in terms of synoptics. Those synoptics would produce a disastrous summer for both the UK and rest of NW Europe, and southern Europe, if they were to recur in July and August.
The GFS 00z is even worse than yesterday if that was at all possible. Suggests a first half of April perhaps even worse than 1983, 1998, 2000 or 2012. And far worse than the much-maligned 1986.
I've never seen an April so dominated by endless cyclonic SW-ly conditions in the south. Remember 1998 and 2000 had a good few northerly interludes and 2012 was more NW-ly meaning it was brighter in between the rain belts, the first and second weeks being half-decent.
Just hope it's wrong!
Really seems something strange is going on if we have possibly the wettest first half of April on record following 9 months of prolonged wet conditions.
I know I’ve been in the tropics for months but Jesus it’s COLD - it’s nearly April?
Sunday was a decent day in that it was sunny but it was till cold. Beats the constant clag and rain.
ChatGPT tells me it should be 12C max on March 27 in london
It’s 9C max and “feels like” 7C with zero sun, light rain and a stiff chilly breeze
So I’m not imagining it. Weather feels 5C below average - because it is
Welcome to the concept of weather. The average max temp does not mean evert day should max out to that.
You clearly are not (yet) an expert in statistics to add to your portfolio of expertise.
Leon/Trent talking to to himself about bog-standard weather variations on a politics site, while copying and pasting posts from a weather site that we can all look at if we want to, is a whole new low of mundane shit.
I think I preferred the endless boredom of PB Classic Guess Boris' Weight, which just goes to show how utterly tedious this weather chat is. The sun is shining outside my north London kitchen and I'm off for a walk.
It’s nearly as boring as
1. The advantages of the cashless society
And
2. People presuming that every new poster must be me, sockpuppeting. It ain’t. Ever
Things aint lookin so good for April. More gloom and misery. From netweather forum
I see what you mean, the whole pattern after the 7th in particular on the GFS 00z has July 2023 written all over it though at this time of year the synoptics will not produce dangerous heat in southern Europe.
The only comfort I can see is that April is often dissimilar to summer in terms of synoptics. Those synoptics would produce a disastrous summer for both the UK and rest of NW Europe, and southern Europe, if they were to recur in July and August.
The GFS 00z is even worse than yesterday if that was at all possible. Suggests a first half of April perhaps even worse than 1983, 1998, 2000 or 2012. And far worse than the much-maligned 1986.
I've never seen an April so dominated by endless cyclonic SW-ly conditions in the south. Remember 1998 and 2000 had a good few northerly interludes and 2012 was more NW-ly meaning it was brighter in between the rain belts, the first and second weeks being half-decent.
Just hope it's wrong!
Really seems something strange is going on if we have possibly the wettest first half of April on record following 9 months of prolonged wet conditions.
I know I’ve been in the tropics for months but Jesus it’s COLD - it’s nearly April?
Sunday was a decent day in that it was sunny but it was till cold. Beats the constant clag and rain.
ChatGPT tells me it should be 12C max on March 27 in london
It’s 9C max and “feels like” 7C with zero sun, light rain and a stiff chilly breeze
So I’m not imagining it. Weather feels 5C below average - because it is
Welcome to the concept of weather. The average max temp does not mean evert day should max out to that.
You clearly are not (yet) an expert in statistics to add to your portfolio of expertise.
Leon/Trent talking to to himself about bog-standard weather variations on a politics site, while copying and pasting posts from a weather site that we can all look at if we want to, is a whole new low of mundane shit.
I think I preferred the endless boredom of PB Classic Guess Boris' Weight, which just goes to show how utterly tedious this weather chat is. The sun is shining outside my north London kitchen and I'm off for a walk.
It’s nearly as boring as
1. The advantages of the cashless society
And
2. People presuming that every new poster must be me, sockpuppeting. It ain’t. Ever
Not while your current form is still here no, but if it gets banned, well then yes.
If I was under 30 I think that the triple lock would have me looking seriously for emigration. It is an outrageous penalty on the young and poor for the benefit of the old and comfortable.
The full state pension is currently a meagre £10,600 pa, lower than most (all?) comparable countries, and not much to live on if a pensioner has no other significant source of income. It would be better policy to maintain the triple lock until the differential narrows further, while at the same time using the tax system to claw back much more money from those who also benefit from a significant private/public sector pension and/or large savings.
It isn't a lot.
However, imagine a world with 30 people in it. 10 are pensioners. 5 are stay at home parents or otherwise not working. 5 are children. And 10 are in work.
In that scenario, £10k of every worker's income goes off to pay pensions, before *any* other expenses.
The issue is not the size of the pension, it is the fact that what was affordable when you had lots of people of working age, and few pensioners, becomes very unaffordable if you have rising life expectancy and a low birth rate.
The alternative is to raise the retirement age of course (having duly notified everyone as per the WASPI women who seem strikingly uninterested in any news).
Things aint lookin so good for April. More gloom and misery. From netweather forum
I see what you mean, the whole pattern after the 7th in particular on the GFS 00z has July 2023 written all over it though at this time of year the synoptics will not produce dangerous heat in southern Europe.
The only comfort I can see is that April is often dissimilar to summer in terms of synoptics. Those synoptics would produce a disastrous summer for both the UK and rest of NW Europe, and southern Europe, if they were to recur in July and August.
The GFS 00z is even worse than yesterday if that was at all possible. Suggests a first half of April perhaps even worse than 1983, 1998, 2000 or 2012. And far worse than the much-maligned 1986.
I've never seen an April so dominated by endless cyclonic SW-ly conditions in the south. Remember 1998 and 2000 had a good few northerly interludes and 2012 was more NW-ly meaning it was brighter in between the rain belts, the first and second weeks being half-decent.
Just hope it's wrong!
Really seems something strange is going on if we have possibly the wettest first half of April on record following 9 months of prolonged wet conditions.
April hasn't started yet. Models can and often do flip quite suddenly.
Besides, what we are seeing is typical weather. A bit shit, but we've had shit weather before. We also sometimes get amazing periods of weather (such as the first covid spring). Things average out in the end,
Strange how bad the weather has been since September 2022 though.
September 2023 not 2022
Indeed: last summer was a scorcher in London. Sufficiently hot that we got air-conditioning installed. (Haven't had a chance to use it yet.)
Really. Do you remember July and early August 2023. Surely you are talking about 2022.
On topic: FWIW, the average monthly US Social Security benefit is $1907. https://faq.ssa.gov/en-us/Topic/article/KA-01903 It is indexed for inflation, using the Consumer Price Index. (I think it would not decrease, in the unlikely event of deflation.)
(Recently, the WaPo's fact checker, Glenn Kessler, argued, correctly, I believe, that the presidents most responsible for the US debt problem are Lyndon Johnson and his successor, Richard Nixon. Caveat: I haven't checked Kessler's arithmetic.)
I don't think that the case.
US national debt only really took off with Reaganism in the Eighties.
On topic: FWIW, the average monthly US Social Security benefit is $1907. https://faq.ssa.gov/en-us/Topic/article/KA-01903 It is indexed for inflation, using the Consumer Price Index. (I think it would not decrease, in the unlikely event of deflation.)
(Recently, the WaPo's fact checker, Glenn Kessler, argued, correctly, I believe, that the presidents most responsible for the US debt problem are Lyndon Johnson and his successor, Richard Nixon. Caveat: I haven't checked Kessler's arithmetic.)
I don't think that the case.
US national debt only really took off with Reaganism in the Eighties.
Besides the accuracy of weather forecasts, while vastly better than in years gone by, still declines significantly out of the high resolution time frame (e.g. post 168 h).
You are looking at aps which are relaying raw model data. Look again after the next run and compare.
Does anyone know how many seats the "True and Fair" Party are standing in ?
Cannot find anything online.
Great name, really trips off the tongue.
Gina Miller's party that merged with Renew?
No. I suspect not many. Miller has said she'll stand.
Renew said they'd stand 51 candidates in the 2019 election, but then said to avoid splitting the pro-Remain vote, they'd only stand in 4, which they did, averaging 0.3%.
If I was under 30 I think that the triple lock would have me looking seriously for emigration. It is an outrageous penalty on the young and poor for the benefit of the old and comfortable.
The full state pension is currently a meagre £10,600 pa, lower than most (all?) comparable countries, and not much to live on if a pensioner has no other significant source of income. It would be better policy to maintain the triple lock until the differential narrows further, while at the same time using the tax system to claw back much more money from those who also benefit from a significant private/public sector pension and/or large savings.
It isn't a lot.
However, imagine a world with 30 people in it. 10 are pensioners. 5 are stay at home parents or otherwise not working. 5 are children. And 10 are in work.
In that scenario, £10k of every worker's income goes off to pay pensions, before *any* other expenses.
The issue is not the size of the pension, it is the fact that what was affordable when you had lots of people of working age, and few pensioners, becomes very unaffordable if you have rising life expectancy and a low birth rate.
The alternative is to raise the retirement age of course (having duly notified everyone as per the WASPI women who seem strikingly uninterested in any news).
Before we raise the pension age too far, is it actually feasible to have 70-year-old brickies, roofers and firefighters? It's a bit like the PB Covid WFH discussion when we've all got cosy white collar jobs and the most strenuous thing we do all day is open a laptop. How many 70-year-old nurses does it take to turn a patient over?
Comments
(That’s sarcasm, BJO.)
Assuming you're referring to the Climate Party
(Under PR, I might consider such a party, depending on other policies)
There's an accusation here, either mendacious or something amiss has occured. If sleaze has happened it's sleaze, regardless of the party or individual responsible. If a mendacious accusation without basis then may they reap the whirlwind they deserve.
A mere 28 hours after my homewards journey began
Its cold
On the Tory seat losses market I will break even if they lose 51-200, win a moderate amount if they lose 1-50, win a large amount if they don't lose any, and lose money if they lose 201+.
Also I am on them to get a majority, although with a smaller investment than on most seats.
Am also on Penny Mordaunt as next PM, although with my behind covered just in case it's Cameron or Hunt.
If La Penny takes over, while counting my winnings I may lay some of the election bets off.
Congratulations to Humza Yousaf on his first anniversary as First Minister.
A 🧵 of his most significant achievements to date.
He is the only SNP First Minister not to have been arrested.
Ends.
Asking for a friend.
And for what? Labour will win Rayner's seat whoever stands. It is not like PPE where sleaze spreads to the whole government. Raynergate is either sui generis or public suspicion spreads to all MPs with two homes, which is most of them. It does not harm Labour though, that's the point.
Tbh the clouds parted as we descended and we had an absolutely superb view of London - it was one of those rare routes which went down to the City then along the river past Westminster. I saw my own house. I saw The Smoke entire. And it looked rather magnificent - and notably green
There is a question as to whether she claimed that her council house was her main residence when it possibly wasn't but, for goodness sake. She had, AIUI it, been brought up there. I am really struggling to see anything wrong with any of this and I am not a fan, believe me. And as for the police wasting their time on this not once but twice?? Do they not appreciate how much time they are going to need to chase randoms on the internet for hate crimes occurring when their output is read in Scotland after 1st April? It is time to prioritise.
I assume nothing much came of the Ed Balls/Yvette Cooper situation given Cooper is presently in the Lab front bench?
Science minister Andrew Griffith took the seemingly unusual approach of trying to woo voters as his party flatlines in the polls on around 20 per cent
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/commuters-london-interest-rates-mortgage-bills-train-delays-b1147918.html
Falling on my head like a memory
Falling on my head like a new emotion
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzFnYcIqj6I&t=1s
However, imagine a world with 30 people in it. 10 are pensioners. 5 are stay at home parents or otherwise not working. 5 are children. And 10 are in work.
In that scenario, £10k of every worker's income goes off to pay pensions, before *any* other expenses.
The issue is not the size of the pension, it is the fact that what was affordable when you had lots of people of working age, and few pensioners, becomes very unaffordable if you have rising life expectancy and a low birth rate.
I see what you mean, the whole pattern after the 7th in particular on the GFS 00z has July 2023 written all over it though at this time of year the synoptics will not produce dangerous heat in southern Europe.
The only comfort I can see is that April is often dissimilar to summer in terms of synoptics. Those synoptics would produce a disastrous summer for both the UK and rest of NW Europe, and southern Europe, if they were to recur in July and August.
The GFS 00z is even worse than yesterday if that was at all possible. Suggests a first half of April perhaps even worse than 1983, 1998, 2000 or 2012. And far worse than the much-maligned 1986.
I've never seen an April so dominated by endless cyclonic SW-ly conditions in the south. Remember 1998 and 2000 had a good few northerly interludes and 2012 was more NW-ly meaning it was brighter in between the rain belts, the first and second weeks being half-decent.
Just hope it's wrong!
Really seems something strange is going on if we have possibly the wettest first half of April on record following 9 months of prolonged wet conditions.
Models offer little meaningful hope, though the week of April 8th is slightly better. The Atlantic just seems to be going on and on and on as if it were still midwinter, no sign of the usual blocked conditions of spring. Met Office forecast looks dire for the south for most of April; looking possible now that April will be the 10th wet month in a row. Looking at the models I do wonder whether low lying areas of the southwest in particular are heading for catastrophic flooding in the next week or so.
This really is an unprecedented weather event within my lifetime. Summer 2023, autumn 2023, winter 23/24 and now spring 2024 all likely to be amongst the 10 worst examples of the given season that I've experienced. Constant endless cyclonic SW-lies with only short breaks, it's hard to believe that the many changes of season since the end of June last year have not triggered a lasting disruption of the pattern.
Just hope this isn't the new normal. I realise that our Government have made it very difficult and bureaucratic to leave the UK, but if it carries on (the weather is one of many reasons why I dislike the contemporary UK) I'm going to seriously consider leaving. Endless rain and gloom for 9-10 months of the year is no fun.
It’s 9C max and “feels like” 7C with zero sun, light rain and a stiff chilly breeze
So I’m not imagining it. Weather feels 5C below average - because it is
Unlikeliest hold
Coming 4th or worse constiuencies
Plenty of blue fun
Please don't tell me that during easy going times this was forgotten and not enough collected, and what was collected was spent on yesterday's fripperies.
Surely that wealth fund isn't now valued at minus £2.3 trillion?
It’s this kind of vital opinionating that makes PB the target of Putin’s many bots
Besides, what we are seeing is typical weather. A bit shit, but we've had shit weather before. We also sometimes get amazing periods of weather (such as the first covid spring). Things average out in the end,
You clearly are not (yet) an expert in statistics to add to your portfolio of expertise.
Seriously though, people have a very poor recollection of weather. Its why myths persist about what historic weather was like. UK winters in the south have rarely been that cold and snowy. In general we don't get long, settled hot spells in summer. 1963, 1947 (both cold) and 1976 (hot) are the extreme outliers.
When I recall Devon holidays in the late 70's and 80's we spent every day on the beach. I can only remember one wet day (oddly the day of the Birmingham Super Prix, for those that recall). Yet that is not bourn out by the data. My memory is faulty.
We do seem to be in an unusually prolonged dull wet period of weather - possibly since September 2023. It’s not the temperatures - they’ve been mild if anything. It’s the rain and lack of sun
However I confess this is all second hand. I’ve probably been abroad for most of that time
I'm sure we get much longer runs of bad weather than we used to (and also good). In the last couple of years I've started noting whenever there is some rain on any given day. In February it rained on 21 out of 29 days, and I might have missed a couple. So far in March, despite seeming to be a bit dryer, it has rained on 18. Without doing any research at all, I would guess that a typical year for SE England would be about half that number.
I think I preferred the endless boredom of PB Classic Guess Boris' Weight, which just goes to show how utterly tedious this weather chat is. The sun is shining outside my north London kitchen and I'm off for a walk.
Dig deep USA.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13242041/Reparations-tribunal-descendants-slaves-justice-United-Nations.html
Cannot find anything online.
Great name, really trips off the tongue.
It does seem relentless. But it will change. And then we'll have a hosepipe ban in August.
I extended the lease on my leasehold flat by about a century and reduced the ground rent to a peppercorn. You have the statutory right to do this. A lawyer handles the paperwork and it took me about two years as the freehold company were awkward. It cost me about £9k. I think it was worth it. Future legislation changes *may* affect this but that's true of everything.
Read this:
* https://www.lease-advice.org/advice-guide/lease-extension-getting-started/
Terms you need to know the meaning of
* marriage value
* Section 42 notice
I guess a None of the Above party might do quite well, particularly if they could find candidates with surnames starting with Z...
All I can see searching for that claim is nonsense sites and the Daily Mail (some might not separate those 2).
That word must mean something different where he is.
That’s why I’m launching a campaign to get us a fish & chip shop in Uxbridge Town Centre, but I need your support to do it.
https://twitter.com/tuckwell_steve/status/1772955631240036725
The newly-elected MP for Uxbridge, Steve Tuckwell, shows his support for free-market economics against the faceless bureaucrats of the British National Chippy Corporation. I don't understand how this is even supposed to work, and there must be easier ways to get your face in the local rag.
Link to petition:
https://www.steve-tuckwell.uk/campaigns/do-you-want-chippy-uxbridge
https://faq.ssa.gov/en-us/Topic/article/KA-01903
It is indexed for inflation, using the Consumer Price Index. (I think it would not decrease, in the unlikely event of deflation.)
Both Social Security and the immense Medicare program are predicted to go bankrupt, within the next decade or two. (When I see a little American kid, and think about the burden they will be carrying, I feel I ought to apologize to them.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicare_(United_States)
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/05/insolvency-on-horizon-for-social-security-medicare-soon-expert-says.html
(Recently, the WaPo's fact checker, Glenn Kessler, argued, correctly, I believe, that the presidents most responsible for the US debt problem are Lyndon Johnson and his successor, Richard Nixon. Caveat: I haven't checked Kessler's arithmetic.)
Russia executed Ukrainian POWs, UN report says
The United Nations issues damning report about conduct of Vladimir Putin’s troops in eastern Ukraine.
https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-executed-32-ukrainian-prisioners-war-winter-un-report-reads/
1. The advantages of the cashless society
And
2. People presuming that every new poster must be me, sockpuppeting. It ain’t. Ever
US national debt only really took off with Reaganism in the Eighties.
Page 3 is the shocking news that the Pope has been accused of Catholocism.
Page 5 is the exclusive about a bear that shits in woods.
Page 7 is the news that Russia is an incompetent, drunken mess with a failed potemkin military.
Logarithmic scale.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2024-03-30
https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/7-day/18351~London
Besides the accuracy of weather forecasts, while vastly better than in years gone by, still declines significantly out of the high resolution time frame (e.g. post 168 h).
You are looking at aps which are relaying raw model data. Look again after the next run and compare.
No. I suspect not many. Miller has said she'll stand.
Renew said they'd stand 51 candidates in the 2019 election, but then said to avoid splitting the pro-Remain vote, they'd only stand in 4, which they did, averaging 0.3%.
WTF is that
Warmer, wetter winter is how we are affected by climate change. Summers have always been variable in a marine climate.
Page 3 is the boobs page