Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

This reminds me of some Corbynites – politicalbetting.com

124»

Comments

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,867

    And my personal highlight from this very brief innings was the suggestion of a causal link between the royal cancer diagnoses and the Covid Vaccine.
    It's the latest mRNA TwitterX meme.
    There are a lot of idiots out there (and bots).
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Nigelb said:

    It's the latest mRNA TwitterX meme.
    There are a lot of idiots out there (and bots).
    Oh, how disappointing to hear it wasn't even original
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    algarkirk said:

    There is a missing 'If' in the above. This error is the difference, so it seems, between WWIII If and world peace.

    AI needs to up its game.

    (Hope the good people of Rochdale are enjoying their new MPs rhetoric).
    As well as a missing "if", and the old-fashioned usage of "super-powers", there's an intrusive "virtual". If the Russian government publicly accuses the US government of involvement in the Crocus City Hall massacre, that's way beyond accusing them of involvement in the Nordstrom sabotage.

    The US government warned its citizens in Russia of the risk of imminent terrorist attacks on "large gatherings". Presumably they warned the FSB of the risk too, giving them more intelligence than they put out publicly. Given the time-frame specified in the notice, it could be that one or more attacks were averted before yesterday's.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286
    Nigelb said:

    I recall one of Leon's previous incarnations waxing lyrical about our power and influence at the time.
    Now he's contemplating permanent self-exile.
    That’s got a lot more to do with age and weather than geopolitics. Sadly

    I just can’t hack the British climate any more and it gets WORSE as you get older

    Speaking of which, good morning from a beautiful wam and sunny Tayrona jungle. All I can hear is magnificently vivid birdlife and the rush of Caribbean waves

    Colombia has 2000 bird species. All of Europe has 900




  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    ydoethur said:

    Gosh. Are you really so useless you can't come up with *any* vaguely sane sources?

    You'll be quoting Goebbels next.

    Come on, make more of an effort.

    At the moment whatever Putin is paying, you're not worth it.

    Heck, even those losers at British Gas would give you the push. They can at least spell and punctuate, even if they can't lay out formal letters properly.
    It's a rare utility company nowadays that can write a letter without at least one run-on sentence.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286
    TimS said:

    I was thinking flag of convenience rather than false flag last night and details since then suggest it’s not even been competently spun by the Russian leadership since - it clearly caught them completely off guard. It’s a long time since serious jihadist attacks in Russia. They’ve been happy to watch and encourage them elsewhere but forgot about home.

    Seems the attackers were Tajiks. So pure jihadist mentalists rather than something linked to Russian activity in Syria or the Sahel.

    They’ll now try to spin some Ukraine connection but I’m not sure even Russians will buy that one.
    As I told you
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,394
    Leon said:

    Then stop fucking moaning, you stupid Remoaner twat, and persuade Starmer to call a Rejoin election. You will never get a better chance. He will have a stonking majority, the polls will be all in his favour, he can turn around and sadly say “things are so bad we need to do this”, his honeymooning voters will forgive him, and besides 70% of them will agree with him. So this is it - this year - after the election, you can actually stop Remoaning and do it. Rejoin. The chance will not come again - ask Blair

    Except Starmer won’t do this. Why? BECAUSE he’s a Remoaner like you, and he’s terrified people will remember that he was Second Voter, he literally wanted to cancel democracy and annul the biggest democratic mandate in UK history. So he won’t go there and all you will do is carry on moaning. Cause you’re a Remoaner. It’s all you guys do

    There should be a word for Beyond Pathetic: that’s you
    After three or four years of a quietly competent Starmer/Rayner/Reeves government we should have another referendum with a strong recommendation to Rejoin.
    That would settle the matter.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,456
    edited March 2024
    On the topic of Brexit, I had lunch with an academic friend of mine yesterday. He had been a vociferous Remainer, but was saying how good it was that his university could replace EU students paying home fees with overseas students paying international fees. So I heard much less from him than usual (in fact nothing at all now I think about it) about how wonderful the EU is.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766
    edited March 2024

    After three or four years of a quietly competent Starmer/Rayner/Reeves government we should have another referendum with a strong recommendation to Rejoin.
    That would settle the matter.
    LOL

    you're off your head mate.

    The EU has had enough of us and will not be rushing towards us with open arms. Currrently they have enough of their own problems liked budget shortfalls and angry farmers.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080
    Eabhal said:

    Perhaps we should do all the UK monarchs. The Scottish ones would generally be for remain - "Auld Alliance" and all that.

    In fact, most of the English medieval ones were trying to develop European unions too.
    John, Henry VI and Stephen as arch-Brexiteers, along with Richard III.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,236

    After three or four years of a quietly competent Starmer/Rayner/Reeves government we should have another referendum with a strong recommendation to Rejoin.
    That would settle the matter.
    It will never settle the matter. Anyone who thinks it would doesn't understand either the EU or the UK.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286
    edited March 2024
    Whenever the Remainer comments on here get too boring - nearly always - I generally ask Claude Opus 3 to write my reply. I can’t be arsed

    Claude Opus 3 writes good replies in my own chosen style; I just sit back and sip superb Colombian coffee

    Also, and with perfect piquance, I can only do this because I am outside the EU. The best AI chatbot in the world - the best A.I. - is not available in the EU because of stupid EU regulations. Yet you can use it in the UK. This is an Official Brexit Benefit brought to you, and predicted by, the Leave campaign
  • eekeek Posts: 29,517

    On Topic

    When a cult takes over a political party there is a tendency to tell existing supporters to go and vote for somebody else, we saw this with SKS who literally said if you don't like the direction I am taking the party there's the door.

    Jezza never said anything of that nature and 12.9m voted for him in 2017

    In Jezza’s case there was no need sensible people left the Labour Party in disgust.

    Which is why SKS had to say what he did as he wanted the left wing loonies to leave quietly which many of them have
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080

    It will never settle the matter. Anyone who thinks it would doesn't understand either the EU or the UK.
    I reckon a 'stay out' vote would settle it for good.

    Paradoxically, a quietly competent government would make that more likely.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,517
    edited March 2024

    And my personal highlight from this very brief innings was the suggestion of a causal link between the royal cancer diagnoses and the Covid Vaccine.
    Oh I see that Covid injection -> cancer claim (without the Royal connection) daily
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,236
    Clarkman said:

    Sad news about kate middleton too. Lots of young people getting cancer recently.

    THERE IS A LINK BETWEEN TURBO CANCERS AND THE COVID VACCINES -

    IT IS TIME THAT OUR GOVERNMENT AND ALL THE GOVERNMENTS THAT PUSHED THIS UNTESTED MEDICAL PROCEDURE ON IT’S PEOPLE THOROUGHLY LOOKED INTO IT AND INVESTIGATED THE MATTER.

    https://x.com/JohnMappin/status/1771242898027082116?s=20

    And there was me yesterday saying how much I was missing the Puto-bots.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,517

    And for anyone who missed it, the result from the latest Saturday Morning Troll Hunt is in:

    24 posts in 45 mins (active from 11.16 to 12.01).

    I suspect 30 of those 45 minutes was because no mod was nearby to press the ban button
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,526
    The problem for Trump is if GOP Senate candidates turn away moderates that could also mean they turn away from him too
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,017
    Fishing said:

    On the topic of Brexit, I had lunch with an academic friend of mine yesterday. He had been a vociferous Remainer, but was saying how good it was that his university could replace EU students paying home fees with overseas students paying international fees. So I heard much less from him than usual (in fact nothing at all now I think about it) about how wonderful the EU is.

    It is clearly one of our best opportunities to improve our balance of payments situation. It is also clearly counter to the wish of many Brexiteers to have very low levels of immigration. (International students are not just temporary, a reasonable proportion end up staying on which matters when the govt sought to increase overseas student numbers both dramatically and from countries where a lot of the upper middle class want to emigrate to the West).
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,392
    Looks like I missed Clarkman! Oh, well!

    Awful scenes in Moscow overnight. I wonder why they (whowever "they" are) chose to attack the very same day Russia vetoed the US resolution on Gaza.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,392
    Eabhal said:

    Perhaps we should do all the UK monarchs. The Scottish ones would generally be for remain - "Auld Alliance" and all that.

    In fact, most of the English medieval ones were trying to develop European unions too.
    Henry VIII was a Leaver, he LEFT the Church of Rome.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,066

    Oh, how disappointing to hear it wasn't even original
    Why is it always on a Saturday?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286
    ydoethur said:

    I reckon a 'stay out' vote would settle it for good.

    Paradoxically, a quietly competent government would make that more likely.
    This is a good point. It’s the same paradox faced by the SNP. If they actually govern Scotland well and make it prosperous, support for YES could easily
    drop. People don’t vote for wrenching changes (esp after the trauma of Brexit) if they are affluent and contented. Brexit passed because enough people were angry

    This is even more true for Remoaner Starmer. If he returns Britain to some sensible path and we do OK, the desire to Rejoin will fade - especially if the EU suffers (and I think it will likely suffer in the medium term as the main engine Germany now faces fundamental problems)
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766
    ydoethur said:

    I reckon a 'stay out' vote would settle it for good.

    Paradoxically, a quietly competent government would make that more likely.
    And where are we going to get one of those from ?
  • glwglw Posts: 10,297

    And there was me yesterday saying how much I was missing the Puto-bots.
    This one is the worst yet. I guess like the Russian military their disinformation services are also scraping the bottom of the barrel.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286

    Why is it always on a Saturday?
    It does point to normal workers asked to do something on their weekends to get brownie points

    Today’s was lamentable. I knew we’d miss the brilliant @truman

    I’m not sure he ever actually came out with pro-Putin talking points. Of if he did it was subtle
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,927
    Biden is really not holding back on Trump: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5yoe4KYuhw
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,392
    edited March 2024

    On Topic

    When a cult takes over a political party there is a tendency to tell existing supporters to go and vote for somebody else, we saw this with SKS who literally said if you don't like the direction I am taking the party there's the door.

    Jezza never said anything of that nature and 12.9m voted for him in 2017

    But more people voted for TMay, and she won 55 more seats than he did.

    BTW how many voted for Jezza in 2019?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080

    And where are we going to get one of those from ?
    I have to admit that's an unanswerable point,
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,375
    edited March 2024
    F1: annoyingly, the markets are almost all up except the group bets which can often be worthwhile (last race's Magnussen bet was a bit unlucky, as he had it on pace but decided to make stupid judgements and rack up 20s of penalties).

    I'll give it a little bit longer, but may end up just keeping the Perez bet.

    Edited extra bit: Perez has a 3 place penalty for impeding Hulkenberg. An early thought, I'll start consider, on Leclerc getting a podium would've been better value if the stewards didn't faff about but there we are.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    DavidL said:

    Biden is really not holding back on Trump: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5yoe4KYuhw

    Just shows what can be done when you don't need to use your funds to pay lawyers' bills.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    But more people voted for TMay, and she won 55 more seats than he did.

    BTW how many voted for Jezza in 2019?
    No matter how many times we tell him BJO still thinks Corbyn won the 2017 GE.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    No matter how many times we tell him BJO still thinks Corbyn won the 2017 GE.
    It's notable that he uses the same justification as Trump does for claiming the 2020 Presidential: namely I increased the number of votes I got; ergo I must have won.

    p.s. As everyone else seems to have gone off for lunch I may as well talk to myself.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,779

    Snap

    I went though Schipol twice this week without any problems.
    Funny that there are fewer problems travelling at quieter times like the middle of March.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,945
    Eabhal said:

    Perhaps we should do all the UK monarchs. The Scottish ones would generally be for remain - "Auld Alliance" and all that.

    In fact, most of the English medieval ones were trying to develop European unions too.
    Edward 8th/Duke of Windsor had a good go too... :(
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,945
    Nigelb said:

    Highly unexpected if it's John Gray.
    Speaking of which, @Andy_JS is still AWOL
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,392

    It's notable that he uses the same justification as Trump does for claiming the 2020 Presidential: namely I increased the number of votes I got; ergo I must have won.

    p.s. As everyone else seems to have gone off for lunch I may as well talk to myself.
    I was about to mention Trump too!


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,867
    Case for EVs, right there.

    We've never seen anything like this.

    13 out of the past 14 days, #WindWaterSolar supply has exceeded demand on California's grid.

    Today's peak: 111.4% #WWS as a percent of demand.

    100% reached today (Thu Mar 21) at 10:45.

    https://twitter.com/mzjacobson/status/1770916026642792536
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    I was about to mention Trump too!


    Did you find some Lib Dems with spare time on their hands?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,517
    Tres said:

    Funny that there are fewer problems travelling at quieter times like the middle of March.
    I usually travel at 8-9am on a Monday morning - that’s peak business travel.

    In fact I usually end up with longer waits if I travel on Thursday / Friday night when they only have 3-4 people on the border
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,945
    viewcode said:

    Speaking of which, @Andy_JS is still AWOL
    His YouTube channel is still up and he's updating the playlists but he hasn't uploaded a vid for some time. I hope he's OK
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,826
    MattW said:

    I'd like to see a report on the damage at Engels (sp?) Airbase from the most recent raid.
    #RedStormRising

    The one where they time the missile strike to catch the bombers on the ground, refuelling.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,943
    edited March 2024
    Heathener said:

    Sorry, no.

    On a very simple level, everyone who goes abroad now can see what a bloody pain in the ass it is. That’s c. 100 million trips per year and rising. Roughly 1/3rd of us will go abroad this summer alone.

    And if you talk to anyone at all who has business dealings with Europe they are tearing their hair out.

    Likewise, bringing goods in from Europe has become an absolute pain in the proverbial.

    Then there is services and entertainment, brought to its knees by covid and brexit. We are chronically short of overseas workers and shunting Nigerian nurses into the NHS is not exactly what people had in mind when they voted for the bloody thing.

    I could go on and on. Brexit is to blame for a large part of this country's cock ups.
    There are some tragic stories of the impact it has had on small import/export businesses, if you care to go looking for them. And remember that the more punitive red tape and checks have so far been postponed, some yet to start until next month and some pushed off to the summer.

    And as someone who contributes regularly to a number of pet travel forums, I can assure you that pet owners who travel are very much aware of the downside (that may be a minority interest, but it is the fastest growing category of tourism). The added cost and administrative hurdles when taking your pet abroad are significant, and there’s no compensating upside.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,384
    Afternoon all :)

    One of the quieter sporting weekends as we bask in the interregnum between Cheltenham, the Boat Race, Aintree, the Cup semi-finals and the start of the new cricket season.

    I rarely venture into the shark-infested waters of the EU debate but just to allow @Leon a chance to give whatever his latest toy is a runout, my two cents.

    We won't go back anytime soon - what would be the point? The whole sideshow would just start again as it did from 1949 to 2016. Simply put, we have struggled to define our post-Imperial relationship with Europe just as we have with other parts of the world and still haven't got a coherent view.

    A part of Europe but not apart from Europe, in Europe but not run by Europe, wordplay and juxtaposing prepositions can make us all feel smug (or not) but until we work out what we want the relationship to be we are, to use a hackneyed old expression, better off out.

    The 43 years of half hearted, rebate obsessed, opt out filled membership satisfied no one - it didn't work for us, it didn't work for the EU. Yes, we wanted it to stay just as it was in 1973 - a common market, a free trading bloc of sovereign nations but that was never going to happen. Schumann and others painted a clear path to a united Europe, a European Federation with what we know as nations provinces in the greater whole.

    A nation which has proudly asserted its independence (verbally if not factually in truth we've had little freedom of action since 1914) would never voluntarily give that up to a body in which it would be one voice among many - it's not NATO.

    Rather like the social legislation of the 1960s, the decision of 2016 may come to be seen as flawed by some if not many but no one wants to go through the anguish of reversing it - we don't want it, the Europeans don't want it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,867
    Coffee drinkers have much lower risk of bowel cancer recurrence, study finds
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/mar/23/coffee-drinkers-much-lower-risk-bowel-cancer-recurrence-study
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,943
    Nigelb said:

    Coffee drinkers have much lower risk of bowel cancer recurrence, study finds
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/mar/23/coffee-drinkers-much-lower-risk-bowel-cancer-recurrence-study

    Coffee has interesting health benefits, per Dr Moseley’s radio four podcasts, and interestingly it isn’t the caffeine that delivers them.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,943
    edited March 2024

    Henry VIII was a Leaver, he LEFT the Church of Rome.
    Read the history, and it seems pretty apparent that he just wanted rid of his wife (to get an heir), and later the cash from the monasteries, and was somewhat surprised what wider changes those more politically savvy around him managed to piggy back upon it. It was his son that saw the advantages of aligning with the emerging Protestant view on the continent.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080
    edited March 2024
    viewcode said:

    Edward 8th/Duke of Windsor had a good go too... :(
    Well, he suggested to French soldiers that if Britain and France joined together they would make an enormous fart.

    I understand he got his genders mixed.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080
    Nigelb said:

    Coffee drinkers have much lower risk of bowel cancer recurrence, study finds
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/mar/23/coffee-drinkers-much-lower-risk-bowel-cancer-recurrence-study

    I'm trying to decide whether that makes up for the revolting taste.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,904
    Clarkman said:

    Indeed. Which is why peace is needed.
    Which, if your lot f*** off to whence they came, peace is exactly what we get.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,384
    I raised this last evening and it's still troubling me today.

    Duke Ellington once opined "It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing".

    Regional polls show the swing from Conservative to Labour at 9.5% in London, 9% in Wales and 12.5% in Scotland yet the GB polls show a swing of 18%. There must be some huge swings in provincial England - I cited the Clacton constituency polling which showed a 24.5% swing (but the Conservatives still retaining the seat).

    The movement was Conservative down 34 and Labour up 15 on 2019. We need much more evidence before conclusions are drawn but I would offer the theory Reform are polling best where the Conservatives are strongest. They are tearing chunks out of the Conservative vote while Labour advance. This means even seats with large Conservative majorities (20,000+) are vulnerable.

    How does that equate to the hypothesis Reform voters will run back to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder? Put simply, we don't know - what polling we have suggests no more than a third would vote Conservative were there to be no Reform candidate in their constituency.

    Reform's problem is while leading figures like Tice and Farage are small state, tax cutting conservatives, the membership isn't - the membership wants money spent on the poorer areas where the WWC predominates. It remembers promises of "levelling up" and wants to see that so the long term future of Reform is more complex than the usual "they'll merge with the Tories".

    IF there is a schism. some will go back to a populist Conservative Party but the next big thing in UK politics will the populist party on the other flank - socially conservative, patriotic, nationalist but interventionist - "spend our money on our people" for example. In five years we could be sitting there asking why this new group is tearing lumps out of the Labour vote in their strongholds.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    One of the quieter sporting weekends as we bask in the interregnum between Cheltenham, the Boat Race, Aintree, the Cup semi-finals and the start of the new cricket season.

    I rarely venture into the shark-infested waters of the EU debate but just to allow @Leon a chance to give whatever his latest toy is a runout, my two cents.

    We won't go back anytime soon - what would be the point? The whole sideshow would just start again as it did from 1949 to 2016. Simply put, we have struggled to define our post-Imperial relationship with Europe just as we have with other parts of the world and still haven't got a coherent view.

    A part of Europe but not apart from Europe, in Europe but not run by Europe, wordplay and juxtaposing prepositions can make us all feel smug (or not) but until we work out what we want the relationship to be we are, to use a hackneyed old expression, better off out.

    The 43 years of half hearted, rebate obsessed, opt out filled membership satisfied no one - it didn't work for us, it didn't work for the EU. Yes, we wanted it to stay just as it was in 1973 - a common market, a free trading bloc of sovereign nations but that was never going to happen. Schumann and others painted a clear path to a united Europe, a European Federation with what we know as nations provinces in the greater whole.

    A nation which has proudly asserted its independence (verbally if not factually in truth we've had little freedom of action since 1914) would never voluntarily give that up to a body in which it would be one voice among many - it's not NATO.

    Rather like the social legislation of the 1960s, the decision of 2016 may come to be seen as flawed by some if not many but no one wants to go through the anguish of reversing it - we don't want it, the Europeans don't want it.

    There is no need to fire up the Opus, I agree with all of this

    Occasionally when I look at polls showing a large majority for Rejoin or an even larger one showing Bregret, then i think: ooh, it could happen

    But then I calm down. The first two years of the Starmer government will be THE window of opportunity (cf Blair and the euro) but he won’t go through it because he’s innately cautious, a new vote will be agonising, and he is a Remoaning 2nd voter, and he’s terrified of people recalling this

    Not gonna happen. After that the practical and political obstacles to Rejoin will only grow, especially as Europe swings populist right. Imagine trying to sell Rejoin to British lefties if France is led by Le Pen. Etc

    It’s over and done. We’re out and out for good. There will be readjustments aplenty, however. See Switzerland
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286
    IanB2 said:

    Read the history, and it seems pretty apparent that he just wanted rid of his wife (to get an heir), and later the cash from the monasteries, and was somewhat surprised what wider changes those more politically savvy around him managed to piggy back upon it. It was his son that saw the advantages of aligning with the emerging Protestant view on the continent.
    Elizabeth !, Gloriana, our Great Virgin Queen (five times the monarch that her feckless father was) is the ultimate Royal Leaver. Patriotic Englishwoman, thinks foul scorn of the pathetic Remoaning Catholics, but is noble enough not to punch windows in their dog-loving souls
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,943
    edited March 2024
    Leon said:

    There is no need to fire up the Opus, I agree with all of this

    Occasionally when I look at polls showing a large majority for Rejoin or an even larger one showing Bregret, then i think: ooh, it could happen

    But then I calm down. The first two years of the Starmer government will be THE window of opportunity (cf Blair and the euro) but he won’t go through it because he’s innately cautious, a new vote will be agonising, and he is a Remoaning 2nd voter, and he’s terrified of people recalling this

    Not gonna happen. After that the practical and political obstacles to Rejoin will only grow, especially as Europe swings populist right. Imagine trying to sell Rejoin to British lefties if France is led by Le Pen. Etc

    It’s over and done. We’re out and out for good. There will be readjustments aplenty, however. See Switzerland
    You don’t need to try to think about this.

    The trajectory is towards where Norway is. Which the Tories, had they been clever, would have dropped us, but Labour will slowly, but surely, progressively return us. If the Tories are nearly wiped out, then quickly; otherwise, more slowly.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,943
    edited March 2024
    Leon said:

    Elizabeth !, Gloriana, our Great Virgin Queen (five times the monarch that her feckless father was) is the ultimate Royal Leaver. Patriotic Englishwoman, thinks foul scorn of the pathetic Remoaning Catholics, but is noble enough not to punch windows in their dog-loving souls
    I’m surprised that you thought this an appropriate moment to display your ever-astonishing if all too familiar, to long-term PB’ers, ignorance.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,375
    F1: just sticking with the Perez bet (his odds are now out to 17 each way).
    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2024/03/australia-pre-race-2024.html
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286
    I can see hummingbirds as I sip my morning cafe con leche

    Life should always be like this

    BREAKFAST WITH HUMMINGBIRDS

    Is there any other animal which brings such immediate innocent delight to humans? Dolphins, perhaps. Lemurs maybe
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080
    Leon said:

    Elizabeth !, Gloriana, our Great Virgin Queen (five times the monarch that her feckless father was) is the ultimate Royal Leaver. Patriotic Englishwoman, thinks foul scorn of the pathetic Remoaning Catholics, but is noble enough not to punch windows in their dog-loving souls
    Apart from all that business of sending soldiers to Ireland and the Netherlands.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,517
    stodge said:

    I raised this last evening and it's still troubling me today.

    Duke Ellington once opined "It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing".

    Regional polls show the swing from Conservative to Labour at 9.5% in London, 9% in Wales and 12.5% in Scotland yet the GB polls show a swing of 18%. There must be some huge swings in provincial England - I cited the Clacton constituency polling which showed a 24.5% swing (but the Conservatives still retaining the seat).

    The movement was Conservative down 34 and Labour up 15 on 2019. We need much more evidence before conclusions are drawn but I would offer the theory Reform are polling best where the Conservatives are strongest. They are tearing chunks out of the Conservative vote while Labour advance. This means even seats with large Conservative majorities (20,000+) are vulnerable.

    How does that equate to the hypothesis Reform voters will run back to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder? Put simply, we don't know - what polling we have suggests no more than a third would vote Conservative were there to be no Reform candidate in their constituency.

    Reform's problem is while leading figures like Tice and Farage are small state, tax cutting conservatives, the membership isn't - the membership wants money spent on the poorer areas where the WWC predominates. It remembers promises of "levelling up" and wants to see that so the long term future of Reform is more complex than the usual "they'll merge with the Tories".

    IF there is a schism. some will go back to a populist Conservative Party but the next big thing in UK politics will the populist party on the other flank - socially conservative, patriotic, nationalist but interventionist - "spend our money on our people" for example. In five years we could be sitting there asking why this new group is tearing lumps out of the Labour vote in their strongholds.

    The reform manifesto is a list of items that are mutually exclusive - but without the £350m on a bus that made them look vaguely plausible
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286
    edited March 2024
    ydoethur said:

    Apart from all that business of sending soldiers to Ireland and the Netherlands.
    Her entire reign was about English independence and fighting off control from mainland Europe (usually Spain, sometimes France via Scotland)

    She was probably the most Leavery monarch in our history, after her maybe William of Orange? Victoria perhaps, but only because Britain was so puissant in her reign. Then Elizabeth II, definitely Leave; I suspect KCIII is Remain

    Before the 14th century it gets harder. I guess Alfried the Great was probably Leave. Vortigern is hard to call. Leave tendencies - based mainly in the Red Wall - but also a foreign Remainy name
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,927
    Leon said:

    Her entire reign was about English independence and fighting off control from mainland Europe (usually Spain, sometimes France via Scotland)

    She was probably the most Leavery monarch in our history, after her maybe William of Orange? Victoria perhaps, but only because Britain was so puissant in her reign. Then Elizabeth II, definitely Leave; I suspect KCIII is Remain

    Before the 14th century it gets harder. I guess Alfried the Great was probably Leave. Vortigern is hard to call. Leave tendencies - based mainly in the Red Wall - but also a foreign Remainy name
    With Alfred we are back to the 9th century and more than 1100 years of Brexit arguments. Surely that is enough, even for @Scott_xP ??
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,826
    IanB2 said:

    Read the history, and it seems pretty apparent that he just wanted rid of his wife (to get an heir), and later the cash from the monasteries, and was somewhat surprised what wider changes those more politically savvy around him managed to piggy back upon it. It was his son that saw the advantages of aligning with the emerging Protestant view on the continent.
    There was, in fact, a long running issue of papal supremacy in England, mixed up with early versions of what became Protestantism.

    Lord Cobham - chum of Henry V. Until he wasn’t…

    Wycliffe had a lot of noble support, as well.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286
    DavidL said:

    With Alfred we are back to the 9th century and more than 1100 years of Brexit arguments. Surely that is enough, even for @Scott_xP ??
    King Lud? Leaver

    Gog and Magog? Remainers, remind me of Jolyon Maugham and AC Grayling

    Before THAT I do admit it gets harder
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080
    Leon said:

    King Lud? Leaver

    Gog and Magog? Remainers, remind me of Jolyon Maugham and AC Grayling

    Before THAT I do admit it gets harder
    Maximus - Leaver.

    Pertinax, Claudius and Caesar - Remainers.
  • There is a reason that the Reformation became a popular movement across most of previously Catholic Europe - even in many places where repression later enforced the counter-Reformation. Henry VIII was the means of religious change in England rather than its cause. Read a bit of Luther for some clues why
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286
    HUMMINGBIRD

    Just wonderful

    And now - on to meet our elder brothers. The Kogi! Last of the pre Colombian civilisations


  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,384
    eek said:

    The reform manifesto is a list of items that are mutually exclusive - but without the £350m on a bus that made them look vaguely plausible
    It will be interesting to see whether Tice and Farage even try to square the circle (why should they, no one else will) of greater spending vs lower taxes.

    MY suspicion is they are small-state Thatcherites at heart which is curious because Boris Johnson isn't and neither are many of their supporters. They want the Johnsonian Manifesto of the magic money tree for the WWC which is why when (not if) Reform fractures only a few of the supporters will move over to the Conservative Party.

    As was the case with the Social Democrats and Liberals in 1981 who tried unsuccessfully to exploit a galp between Thatcher's Conservatives and Foot's Labour, there is an opportunity to establish the alternative version of a populist party such as we are seeing in Germany. A socially conservative, economically nationalist, patriotic party of the working class, looking to spend public money on that group while maintaining a cultural identity based around a nationalist anti-immigrant outlook.

    It is often the case when parties are at their strongest they are also at their weakest - the broader the tent the more likely it is to collapse under the weight of its contradictions.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286
    I forgot Boudicca. Totally Leave. And a great campaigner. Kind of like Boris but with more rape and pillage and brutal castration of Roman priests by the Thames
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,365
    Leon said:

    Elizabeth !, Gloriana, our Great Virgin Queen (five times the monarch that her feckless father was) is the ultimate Royal Leaver. Patriotic Englishwoman, thinks foul scorn of the pathetic Remoaning Catholics, but is noble enough not to punch windows in their dog-loving souls
    Also, has none of her own teeth. Classic Leave voter.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,286

    Also, has none of her own teeth. Classic Leave voter.
    Droll

    Also Edward II, pathetic moaning gaylord who ended up being sodomised to death in Berkeley Castle with a red hot poker - obvious Remainer. Probably a 2nd voter
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,276
    I just saw that new Ghostbusters movie, which was pretty decent if flawed, but I will only say this - Walter Peck from the first movie was right the whole time.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,166
    stodge said:

    It will be interesting to see whether Tice and Farage even try to square the circle (why should they, no one else will) of greater spending vs lower taxes.

    MY suspicion is they are small-state Thatcherites at heart which is curious because Boris Johnson isn't and neither are many of their supporters. They want the Johnsonian Manifesto of the magic money tree for the WWC which is why when (not if) Reform fractures only a few of the supporters will move over to the Conservative Party.

    As was the case with the Social Democrats and Liberals in 1981 who tried unsuccessfully to exploit a galp between Thatcher's Conservatives and Foot's Labour, there is an opportunity to establish the alternative version of a populist party such as we are seeing in Germany. A socially conservative, economically nationalist, patriotic party of the working class, looking to spend public money on that group while maintaining a cultural identity based around a nationalist anti-immigrant outlook.

    It is often the case when parties are at their strongest they are also at their weakest - the broader the tent the more likely it is to collapse under the weight of its contradictions.
    Roughly where the Continuity SDP have ended up, then? Who haven't really got anywhere. Partly because Farage does what he does very well, even if you don't like what he does.

    But also because nobody is interested in funding or promoting left wing economic nationalism, and the threshold to break through is so high.

    (Galloway is also in that "good at what he does, but boy I wish he didn't category". His pitch to WWC voters comes close as well.)

    So we continue to have this contradiction between elite and popular national populism. As long as it remains an opposition voice it doesn't matter. But even Boris was struggling to hold the two together in office.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,272
    Leon said:

    HUMMINGBIRD

    Just wonderful

    And now - on to meet our elder brothers. The Kogi! Last of the pre Colombian civilisations


    No bad but out of focus.

    Have you noticed the picture on my profile? The best photograph I've ever taken.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,456
    Will a Labour government want to rejoin an EU with Le Pen as President of France?

    Her niece describes it as a failed project that has left Europe a digital colony of America, an economic colony of China, and on the way to becoming a demographic colony of Africa and religious and cultural colony of Islam.

    https://x.com/marionmarechal/status/1770894693481537884
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,272
    edited March 2024
    Leon said:

    I can see hummingbirds as I sip my morning cafe con leche

    Life should always be like this

    BREAKFAST WITH HUMMINGBIRDS

    Is there any other animal which brings such immediate innocent delight to humans? Dolphins, perhaps. Lemurs maybe

    Bumblebees, hedgehogs, dormice.

    The one that tops it for me, along with hummingbirds, is the sea horse I saw many years ago off the coast of Kenya.
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 795
    I have read The Rising Down, by Alexandra Harris (nominally published last Thursday).

    Fair disclosure: Initially I started reading only because a) I was sent a free copy by the publisher/author, and b) they/she included a free piece of Horsham gingerbread with it. I didn't know Horsham gingerbread was a thing, but it is, and it is delicious.

    So too is this book: a glorious lyrical and passionate evocation of landscape, people and history. There is probably a technical term for this type of book, which other more learned readers will be able to identify, but I think of this as a mosaic history: each chapter taking an episode or personage from history, and turning over the details as if examining a flint from a downland field, before adding it to a narrative that is discontinuous but consistent; reiterating themes as they return, each time folded and deposited into a new form.

    From the water bailiff on the Arun in the 1600s, naming the tributaries, fisheries and landowners, to the Henty family of Tarring who emigrate to Australia in the 1800s with their Southdown sheep and medieval church font, to SOE operatives training at Bignor before their brief careers and martyrdoms in Occupied Europe, to Polish refugees camped in the Storrington woodlands, making churches and schools, everyone is counted and everyone counts. William Blake and Jomo Kenyatta, Ivon Hitchens and Laurie Lee, Edward Elgar and John Constable, all feature, but no more (and no less) important than the villagers, labourers, clergymen and nurses who populate these pages, intricately woven in to her own story, her family and friends.

    This is an absolute jewel of a book: Professor Harris grew up in West Sussex, and has maintained a love of the landscape of her childhood; she writes fluid and clear prose, like a downland stream; she has a talent for finding the best elements of each story, and a knack for finding the best stories to tell. Perhaps it means more to me because I am so familiar (though apparently not familiar enough!) with these landscapes and histories, but I am sure that even for those who do not live on or near the downs, there is still a huge amount of pleasure and profit to be found in this.
  • Bart and I used to predict that Boris Johnson would win the next election with an increased majority - a lot has happened since then! Perhaps enough that most people will forget the prediction.
    To be fair I said it was a possibility but I'd want to lay it at 2-1, and that I'd want at least 4-1 to back it.

    But yes its certainly not a possibility (with or without Boris) anymore.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520

    Will a Labour government want to rejoin an EU with Le Pen as President of France?

    Her niece describes it as a failed project that has left Europe a digital colony of America, an economic colony of China, and on the way to becoming a demographic colony of Africa and religious and cultural colony of Islam.

    https://x.com/marionmarechal/status/1770894693481537884

    Mmm, let's take it back to how it was in the 1930s. All those proud independent sovereign states looking out for their own proud independent people.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,826
    kinabalu said:

    Mmm, let's take it back to how it was in the 1930s. All those proud independent sovereign states looking out for their own proud independent people.
    Bit like this


  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,535
    Stocky said:

    Bumblebees, hedgehogs, dormice.

    The one that tops it for me, along with hummingbirds, is the sea horse I saw many years ago off the coast of Kenya.
    I saw a tortoise in the wild in Athens last year. I had only thought of them as pets and not really paid attention to which countries they were native to - I had assumed North Africa or Asia. Made my day.

    Domestically, you can’t beat an unexpected owl sighting. Or seeing a family of weasels or stoats trotting across the road in a line, half upright.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,392

    New Thread

  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,225
    On topic: One advantage Sherrod Brown has in Ohio is that he is anti-free trade.
    "Brown has criticized free trade with China and other countries. In a 2006 Washington Post article, Brown argued against free trade on the grounds that labor activism was responsible for the growth of the U.S. middle class, and that the U.S. economy is harmed by trade relations with countries that lack the kind of labor regulations that have resulted from that activism.[131]

    In 2011, the Columbus Dispatch noted that Brown "loves to rail against international trade agreements."[132] Brown's book Myths of Free Trade argues that "an unregulated global economy is a threat to all of us."[133] In the book he recommends measures that would allow for emergency tariffs, protect Buy America laws, including those that give preference to minority and women-owned businesses, and hold foreign producers to American labor and environmental standards.[134] Brown was the co-author and sponsor of a bill that would officially declare China a currency manipulator and require the Department of Commerce to impose countervailing duties on Chinese imports."
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sherrod_Brown#Political_positions

    Most economists may love free trade -- but many voters in the US don't.

    (My own view: I think NAFTA has been a solid success, good for all three nations -- but I recognize that it is not especially popular in any of the three. Incidentally, it is a bipartisan success: RR proposed it, GHWB negotiated it, and BC got it ratified.

    Trade with China, on the other hand, has been a mixed bag. For example, I think we here in the US are going to have to think very hard about their technology thefts. I have seen estimates of a trillion dollars stolen.)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,994

    Morning Malc. What do you make of Scotland’s chances in the Euros?
    Afternoon , Long, very Long
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,225
    Here are two questions for Remainers: Are there any examples of the EU making substantial changes in policy in response to elections?

    What conclusions can we draw from the low voter turnout in EU elections?

    I am not asking those questions to be provocative; I would be delighted if there were positive answers to both.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,994
    malcolmg said:

    Afternoon , Long, very Long
    !!
    @Anabobazina
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,124
    edited March 2024
    Leon said:

    King Lud? Leaver

    Gog and Magog? Remainers, remind me of Jolyon Maugham and AC Grayling

    Before THAT I do admit it gets harder
    Presumably ur-Leon skeddadled from his prehistoric mud hole in West Britain to sunny Göbekli Tepe as fast as his short fat hairy legs could take him.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,124
    Bloody Yank fashion mavens comin’ over ‘ere and satirisin’ our sacred rituals.

    I say our..

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,440
    DavidL said:

    Biden is really not holding back on Trump: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5yoe4KYuhw

    He'll be throwing his dentures at him next.
This discussion has been closed.