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The paradox that the Tory party cannot currently solve – politicalbetting.com
The paradox that the Tory party cannot currently solve – politicalbetting.com
Picture: This man could hurt the Tories badly
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While the Tories still have plenty of money, their membership is moribund and largely inactive, while Teform, and more so the Lib Dems, are very fired up.
The Tory reliance on paid deliveries and voter data bases only works in the air war campaign, and much of the ground war relies on personal campaigning, and the loss of so many current MPs leaves the Tories even weaker here.
Reform is also a media led, air war campaigning force, and though in some places it might out perform the Tories, it is still hoing to be difficult for them to fight the ground war. The local results are not likely to show that they have sufficiently progressed. So the split of the right wing vote between Reform Ltd and the Tories is more likely to see Labour of the Lib Dems take more seats.
In truth the Conservatives have lost the will to live, and the growing defeatism is what seems to be pushing them towards an even greater defeat than in 1997.
It's a bit like one of Leon's posts: believing that a little local difficulty is in fact the sky falling in, and running around in a panic. The UK right is Chicken Licken, and it is fear itself that will become a self fulfilling prophecy of an epochal defeat.
"Jeremy Corbyn has in effect confirmed that he will stand as an independent candidate at the general election, declaring he would “continue” to serve his constituents as he has done since 1983......
However, he decided to end the speculation after The Sunday Times was leaked emails in which a friend asked a printing company about the cost of producing election leaflets for him.
He issued a statement saying: “Jeremy is immensely proud to be the MP for Islington North and has spent the past 40 years fighting alongside his community for a better world. He is focused on that work, campaigning on the issues facing his constituents and doing his utmost to help those in need. That is what he will continue to do.”
But too many won’t believe anything other than that Israel is deliberately targeting women and children
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/03/16/could-be-devastating-proof-hamas-faking-death-figures/ (£££)
Although Hamas's figures are almost certainly wrong, television pictures of devastation wreaked in Gaza render them moot.
Russell Group college criticised for not warning instead of dangers of taking drugs
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/03/16/university-warns-its-students-over-bad-heroin/ (£££)
Exeter, Falmouth.
I cannot see how the Tories can unite the Red Wall and the Blue Wall over the next few years, getting Brexit done and stopping Jeremy Corbyn are no longer issues that concern voters and Sir Keir Starmer isn’t a bogeyman to frighten people into voting Tory unlike Corbyn. The only unity is that both walls want to ditch the Tories.”
Morning everyone. This is exactly it. @TSE has perfectly summarised the problem, the fissures of which have lain there for the past 4 decades. It’s just that Brexit brought made it unbridgable.
I’m not sure that epistemologically or even ontologically there’s any way for those two halves to unite. It’s not impossible that after their defeat, the Party could split entirely.
Sometimes I think she’s okay. At other times she’s awful. She didn’t shine in the tv debates, looked out of her depth, has a poor grasp of detail and facts, and is (apparently) lazy. At any rate, there were enough question marks about her previously to make many insiders doubt whether she has what it takes. Then she held onto a pole or something and the tory (men) decided she was pretty.
Sorry to be facetious but Penny Mordaunt isn’t going to save the Conservatives from a historic electoral defeat. And it’s a sign of their sheer desperation, and the realisation that Sunak is a complete dud, that they’re even discussing it so openly.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/03/16/penny-mordaunt-stalking-horse-right-wing-tory-rival/ (£££)
They are responsible for planning, potholes and policing. But our local politicians are facing unprecedented levels of abuse and harassment. The government has committed £31m to improving safety and security for all elected representatives. So, with local elections coming, what is it like on the front line of local democracy?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-68562310
Yes he is toxic in much of the blue wall but he would get the Tories over 200 seats, which I doubt anyone else will. I think his spiel of simple unworkable solutions could also play quite well if Labour struggle, as one suspects they will because of the legacy they are being left.
Miss that clip. Miss The Thick Of It.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCLwu2vEp6Q
AKA Much Ado About Nothing.
It’s not about who could win the leadership. It's about the paradox of how to win both the red wall and the blue wall.
Farage would be an electoral disaster for the tories because they would face a wipeout in the blue wall. There’s no evidence at all that with him in charge they would win 200 seats. He’s even more toxic than Jeremy Corbyn was the other way, which is saying something.
It’s about that paradox: how do you win two mutually incompatible demographics?
Sure, but that party cannot win elections, because it would cater to a narrow segment on the right. In becoming a niche popcon party it would leave a gaping hole in the middle that would be occupied be Labour for many many terms. I would be fine with this by the way, as the country has suffered horriby under the conservatives attempts to negotiate it own internal contradictions. The conservative party must split before we can move on as a nation. By the way, the prospective popcon party would be on a demographic trajectory towards oblivion, due to its largely boomer age profile. I have said from the beginning that reform is symptomatic of populism's failure to consolidate the right, I.e. follow through on ukips Trojan horse approach to the conservatives.
This is their punishment.
These groups are not reconciled due to the oratorical brilliance of Keir-Ends-In-R Starmer, but due to Starmer's success in blandifying the Labour party so as not to put any of the groups off, and the categorical imperative of finding a means for these groups to punish the Tories.
Achieving something in reverse for the Tories requires only a bit of experience of Labour in government, and a Tory leader who isn't trying to actively alienate one part of the voter coalition.
He simply isn't leadership material, not that ever seems to stand in the way of prospective Tory leaders.
I am sceptical that REFUK would poll much better with Farage as leader too.
They both voted for the same shyster, but for different reasons.
And they both got shafted.
However … those cracks were in the Party for a long time and we kid ourselves to think otherwise. That divide is really what brought down John Major and it didn’t do Margaret Thatcher much good in the end either. It all boiled to the surface when @TSE ’s beloved Davey boy idiotically called the Brexit referendum, thinking in his Old Etonian arrogance that he would pull off the same stunt as indyref.
(If you want to see what a shit Cameron really is then DO read the finale to Suzanne Heywood’s What Does Jeremy Think?)
I still maintain that 2019 was unique. Even I, a remainer, was utterly exasperated at the antics of that Remainer Parliament and at just the right moment along came Boris, someone uniquely gifted at deception to hoodwink the British people. With mellifluous honey-coated lies he pulled in blue and red wall voters. My Surrey tory friend, totally disillusioned now with the Party, STILL ADORES Boris and would vote for him like a shot.
Assuming Boris doesn’t make a Lazarite comeback, there’s no one else of his ilk. Once in a century.
But there is also a stark, and at the moment unreconcilable, paradox and it’s a real problem for the Party. You can’t appeal to red wall and blue wall at the same time.
Richi can't do it. Nigel Fucking Farage can't do it.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-68562310
I don't see anything unusual with what is happening to the Tories now, and so I don't think it requires anything extraordinary to fix the situation.
Indeed, what seems to be a more volatile electorate means that there is potential for the fractured Tory coalition to come back together (very temporarily) more quickly than currently appears possible. The situation facing an incoming Labour government is much more difficult than that encountered in 1997.
Although the Tories have been in government for nearly 14 years now, I think that is misleading. They have had several reinventions in that time, and so the last 14 years have been a lot more like the 1970s, than the long periods of Thatcherite/Blairite rule in the 80s/90s/00s.
Whatever Starmerism turns out to be I would not bet on it lasting that long. It's quite likely to be overturned by something very different, either from within the Labour party, or without, by the end of the decade.
I suspect that other big wins have been based on core + swing voters, which is much more stable.
The trouble with the Conservative 2019 coalition is that it's based on two fundamentally incompatible types of voter. Without Corbyn as a bogeyman, all that's left is responding to the same bribes.
Like a lot of moves in the Johnson-Cummings playbook, there was a good reason why nobody had done it that way before. The tactics were strictly one shot, with horrid side effects.
Britain doesn’t need ‘reform’. It just needs to rejoin the EU | William Keegan
https://t.co/CHtLQ2iINU
But as a more gracious type I refrain from pointing out your frequent, erm, typos.
Totally agree with your Johnson-Cummings comments.
Whilst I don’t underestimate the magnitude of problems facing this country, and I’m no longer convinced Labour will fix them, I suspect many people will look back on the last 5 years as a horror show they never want to go near again in their lifetime.
I’m beginning to think Labour will be in power for 20 years.
The differences between these groups are a lot more complex than having the voters sit on a left-right axis, where a party can secure its core vote and reach out to centrists, until it encompasses a winning plurality. And if the groups are roughly equal in size, then it requires a combination of three groups to win what might be a reliable election-winning coalition, although even that might not quite be enough.
I think you’re just cross because I called out Davey boy for the person he really is. I have contacts high up in the civil service who thought he was an unpleasant character. Read Suzanne Heywood’s What Does Jeremy Think? You may feel differently about your beloved OE afterwards.
LTNs back in the news today. From the BBC:
Transport Secretary Mark Harper said it showed the government was "on the side of drivers".
And not on the side of communities whose l8ves are blighted when their streets are turned into rat runs.
But if Mr Stringbackedgloves can save minute in his Audil that's what matters.
I’ll ask her what she thinks of Cameron. Bet with 2 minutes she’s talking about Boris instead ...
It is true this conservative party cannot square the circle between the red and blue walls but in my opinion the desire for change is so great now that will hand Starmer a large majority this Autumn
What he does with it is a very different question, as is what conservative party emerges post the election
Do you think they will split after the election? Or is that the sort of discussion that always comes up for either main party after a heavy defeat and they will pull together in the end?
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1769274394667352222?t=qGzqXc3t3jmFbiBjyCm5wA&s=19
The short version is that it doesn't solve the Tories problem.
The comedy is that whilst doing all those things they seem insistent that *the opposite* is true. Truly the emperor’s new clothes.
Farage is catnip to the mad and the desperate. Not helped by a succession of right-wing media outlets which have belittled facts and experts and truth and instead push distortions and slogans and ignorance. With Farage as the pied piper. The Tory problem is that as the anti-Tory party, they are mesmerised by his tune, even as he leads them further away from everything he stands for.
Serious question. What is Conservative or Unionist about the Conservative and Unionist Party in 2024?
We'll see what Starmerism turns out to be - it's really hard to predict because he's shown so little indication of what his approach will be - but I included the possibility of Starmerism being overturned from within the Labour party. Whether Labour is in office for two decades, or not, I do not think Britain is in for a period of stable politics. There are large problems, that are difficult to solve, and a lot of rootless discontent sloshing about the political system as a result.
It could be that the Tory brand, and all the politicians associated with it, is so damaged that the voters won't go near it for a long time, but in that case the voter's discontent will manifest itself through other parties, or through factions within the Labour party. Cameron was PM for 6 years and 64 days. He wasn't brought down because the voters were ready to give Labour another go. I doubt very much that Starmer will have so long, but I don't see the Tories returning so soon either (thank God).
The problem the present government has is that it has not been offering this. By worrying about the small if noisy groups to the right they have lost the much larger group in the centre who are going to vote for Starmer, as they voted for Blair.
The idea that the solution to this problem is someone like Farage is a serious misdiagnosis of the problem. It is rather a trip into the wilderness.
The reason they’ve lost the red wall is because they’ve done bugger all for the North.
I think they have discovered the way to square the circle though, at least they think they have, and it’s called BIG TAX CUTS
I mean, he does some genuinely good cartoons, but they certainly aren't all gold.
Thank you for asking and it will be six weeks on tuesday since my pacemaker operation and it does seem to be working but since my DVT in October my mobility has suffered but then I am now an octogenarian so just grateful to be under lifetime medical care and have a wonderful family
As far as the conservatives post GE are concerned I do not expect Reform to win any seats, but certainly they will damage the conservative vote but if there is one thing i pray comes out at the next GE is the electorate facing down the right in the form of Farage and Reform, who are simply a divisive and unpleasant political part of our politics
And maybe if this happens wise heads left in the conservative party will prevail and they return to the centre
I had to laugh too at this photo of Tice and Anderson on a victory tour:
https://twitter.com/supertanskiii/status/1769077619129983215?t=4e-hWXqtGvECidovRoX8nA&s=19
Brexit opened up so many wounds and has been such a cock-up that I’m not convinced one nation Conservatism will ever be a potent force again. It worked for as long as they kept the Blairite types happy and the red wall types holding their noses whilst voting for them. Those days are surely now gone?
Anecdote. As I queued for ages to get the bloody exit stamp in my passport at Oslo last week, lots of Brits were getting very stressed. They were in real danger of missing their connecting flights. I ushered them into the queue in front of me but couldn’t resist pointing out that it’s all our fault for voting Brexit.
Every time British people travel our stupidity hits home.
x
It would make it a more interesting election.
Starmer, by contrast, is going to be all about leaving things more or less as they are, and then blaming the mess created by the last lot for the fact that his continuity Toryism is making everything even worse.
https://twitter.com/mod_soc_dem/status/1768562146068095351?t=5A38AcC4XvqkqJ3LkDhbLw&s=19https://twitter.com/mod_soc_dem/status/1768562146068095351?t=5A38AcC4XvqkqJ3LkDhbLw&s=19
She'll likely keep the Tories above 200 seats which will provide a springboard for the 2028/9 GE as the Starmer government drown in a sea of debt.
Departing Chancellor Hunt note to Reeves. "There's £2.40 down the back of the sofa. Be quick though, it's on HP and the bailiffs are coming on Saturday."
The fact that Lee Anderson is being followed around by a man shouting "wanker" at him through a megaphone has made me laugh out loud.
That is a bit different to forced ejection though.
I thought Penny the best candidate in the post Johnson but was significantly underwhelmed by her campaign and debates. She really is quite devoid of ideas, and not willing to face down the Culture Warriors.
Possibly slightly better than Sunak, but marginally so, and the farce of a further leadership contest would not help the Tories.
What we really need is a government that is willing to address our underlying problems: the horrific trade deficit that is year by year impoverishing us (and which got so much worse in the SM), our poor productivity, our propensity to spend rather than save or invest, our housing problems, our inability to efficiently get around a rather small island, etc etc.
The present government is not doing much if any of that. I see little sign that Labour will do either although their intentions are so obscure that it is hard to tell. But sooner or later, hopefully when we are not much poorer than we already are, we are going to need to address these issues.
The 12/1 for Mordaunt as PM after next general election does suggest that punters think she would improve the Tories odds of winning a majority at the next election by a large amount from their current odds of 14/1.
The best odds available seem to discount entirely the possibility of Keir Starmer becoming PM without a Labour majority. Both events are best-priced at 1/5. So there's probably still value on Starmer becoming PM after the next GE.
Either way, it won't look pretty, and there's a non-trivial risk that there won't be anything left to save afterwards.
He's the sort of lawyer you want in your corner after trashing the place on a drunken night out and winding up in the dock, hungover and with soiled trousers and vomit coated shoes. So just what the country needs right now!
Apart from that...
So when you’re desperate and staring down the barrel of a historic defeat, rolling the dice with a presentable candidate might be worth it. What does Rishi offer that PM doesn’t?
That is not a state in control of its destiny, though this time it's the Brexiteers who are the government.
It was last Wednesday afternoon in the Palace of Westminster. The former minister then paused, grimaced, and added that with every passing day, as the chaos grew, the chances were likely to diminish further – into negative territory.
Another ex-cabinet minister – also from the right of the party – had a different way of answering the same question minutes later.
There were two possibilities for the Tories to drag themselves back from the brink, he believed. One was for Rishi Sunak to be bolder and abandon more green policies while also abolishing inheritance tax. “But he won’t do that,” he added. “He is just too cautious.”
The other was for the party to replace Sunak with another leader: “But that would be madness. It won’t happen.” He too saw no real hope of a miracle recovery for his party before the next election.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/17/our-chances-zero-and-getting-worse-inside-a-tory-edeath-spiral
Those who do not follow Balkan politics will not grasp the full scope of this story.
It is two foreign govts covertly channeling $ to Trump in exchange for his (2nd) admin's support for potentially the wholesale redrawing of the map the southeast Europe. ..
https://twitter.com/JasminMuj/status/1768781907847000496
So she's an intellectual vacuum, but she looks like Catherine Deneuve. That's enough for some of us.