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The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
"If you vote UKIP the following will happen. Verily.:
1) Water will turn into Blood (Labour Red Blood at that, not blue Tory blood)
2) There will be a plague of Frogs [shurely shome mishtake UKIP are anti immigration? Ed]
3) Plague of Lice (Faragensis lousis)
4) Plague of Flies [or is that drones. Ed?]
5) Terrible plague on all your livestock (we told you this would happen in 2001 if Labour won but you didn't listen- and it did)
6) Plague of Boils (because UKIP will abolish the NHS and charge you to treat them. Oh Yes.)
7) Thunderstorms, hail and fire (according to Mr Fish)
8) Plague of Locusts [See 2. Ed]
9) Darkness will be on the land [What do you expect in the middle of November? Ed]
10) Death of all firstborn in Rochester [You're fired. Ed] "
Good. I don't intend to move and if I did it would be to a bigger place so a house price crash will lower the differential. Also I have several children, a house price crash is the best news I could hope for for them.
The only people who benefit from high house prices are spoilt brats getting inheritances and the government who hoover up inheritance tax and pay out less in care home fees as the higher the price the longer before the victims money runs out.
Sometimes politicians are punished for lying, but this time they are being punished for (partial) honesty.
This may not as yet have won the Tories more support, but the closer we get to the election, and people realise the choice they're being asked to make, I'm convinced that it will win the Tories more votes, and cost labour many more through switchers to the greens or UKIP, or to staying at home rather than voting.
Let's face it: we can't handle the truth. We just can't.
And what trap?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/travelnews/11236552/Air-traffic-timelapse-untangling-the-traffic-in-Britains-skies.html
The one where the Penguin and the Joker get hold of the controls and manage to crash the batmobile into a hospital, then a school, then a queue outside the job centre..
And what's worse for them, it seems there is little they can do about it. Entice UKIPers back? Maybe a few, but many have made a great deal out of how much they don't care if Ed M gets in as a result of voting UKIP, others actively want that to destroy the Tories, and every successful by-election win just makes it harder to argue voting UKIP is a wasted choice, so it would be very bold to rely on them switching back in large numbers. Even tacking hard right, which would lose the Tories votes as well, would not entice many such people back, but it's too late and in any case probably pointless to tack further left(centre). Add to that the crowning 'achievement' of this government, economic recovery, looks like falling back as well, or at least months of poor global economic news and likely downgrading of predictions for pace of growth in the UK, and there's very little the Tories can point to as reasons to vote for them, other than the standard lazy tactics which only appeal to the base. Labour can do the same lazy appeal and do much better.
Labour are going to walk this election if they can shore up their Scottish seats.
Someone play with me
Remember the strikes interview. I'll link to it if you can't..
"After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much"
On any conventinal reading I can't see why people don't like this government much. They're not particularly right wing they've presided over reasonably well off people becoming much richer and those without a job are now apparently working. They don't beat on minorities like they used to.....What's not to like?
I don't like them because I'm alergic to Tories but I've seem many less attractive Tory governments. The appearance of UKIP is living proof of what a really ugly right wing party can look like.....
If we imagine a scenario where that had proved to be true, and austerity had been equally shared across the nation, then I think the British people would have been much less unhappy with the Government.
This hasn't happened. Many people suspect that they are being asked to endure endless austerity while others - for many the "rich", but the finger also gets pointed at public sector workers, immigrants, welfare cheats, etc - are untouched.
Looking back now and the length of time for which rationing persisted after WWII seems remarkable. No doubt the rules were broken by many, and there was a thriving black market for those who could afford to pay extra. And yet, by and large, the country put up with it because it was perceived as equitable and temporary.
The austerity that many perceive they are being asked to accept is endless and unequal. Regardless of the economic necessity of balancing the books (as a nation, not just in the government accounts), I do not see it as surprising that people will refuse to accept austerity as presented in such a way.
One of the great failings of the Labour opposition is that they have presented no alternative. Everyone knows that they will pursue almost identical policies to the Coalition, but with the odd sprinkling of differentiation in tone, emphasis and detail.
12 hours 11 minutes 10 seconds
There is precedent from 1922 and again in the 1930s. Indeed some National Liberals lasted well into the Sixties.
Are you trying to win a comedy understatement award?
He is so obviously hopelessly inadequate for the role that he's put himself up for, it's laughable. Has there ever been an opposition leader so strongly supported by his opponents?
Sadly, Miliband does not appear to have this "PR" ability and I think he will be mercilessly slaughtered by the media in the run up to the election. He comes across to me, no dou'b aided and abetted by the media, as a little not as others. I think such a quality in a politician is going to affect him quite significantly with C2,D,E voters, who historically disproportionally vote Labour. He will not get the votes of many of those who allow instinct, rather than reason, to colour their choice.
But it is so much easier to believe that this government wants to cut public spending because it hates poor people and wants to cut taxes for the rich, even when they are paying more.
And to believe that Labour's refusal to address the extent of the problems is down to moral failings and rank dishonesty rather than a genuine reluctance to face the consequences for those in need.
And that UKIP are all truly fruitcakes rather than people who see some of the problems and how hard it is for a government regulated by the EU to actually do anything about it.
And that the SNP are all mad....hmm, may be on to something with that last one.
The Conservatives will finish ahead. But, they're making heavy weather of it.
p.s. Caricatures are kind of difficult, under a mask. But I thought the Batman and Robin theme was good fun ... and I guessed most people would 'get it'.
That isn't about austerity and inequality, it's about immigrants and gay weddings.
The Tories are comfortably gaining net from their LibLab left.
In his metropolitan cocoon it was impossible for him to think that there were people who did not sign up for the trendy metropolitan agenda.
In such a situation if I was Ed I would stay on as leader and announce the end of Pairing, then fight a war of attrition against them.
It wont be pleasant to watch.
Thanks JJ. That's a cool idea. If time permits, I may even do that for you. :-)
Hope all is well with you?
It would make interesting reading to see what attitudes towards cuts/spending/taxes are within UKIP's vote when split according to where the supporter comes from - Tory/Lib/ Lab/other/ Lapsed voter
David Cameron as Batman
George Osborne as the Boy Wonder
Ed Miliband as the Joker
Nigel Farage as The Penguin
Luciana Berger as Harley Quinn
Caroline Lucas as Ra's Al Ghul (honestly, Ra's Al Ghul was an eco terrorist)
I'm struggling to work who would be The Scarecrow and The Riddler.
If anyone mentions Mr Freeze, they will be exiled to conhome, as I repress the film Batman and Robin, and pretend it never happened.
Also one of Batman's adversaries was called Owlman, so that might explain Labour's Owl policy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professor_Pyg
the 2015 General Election, when it comes to the leaders, it may be the case of the resistible force meets the moveable object.
Nothing has changed to make me revise my opinion
Would they please hire Richard Nabavi or DavidL and so have someone capable of putting a constructive and well mannered case for them.
There have been good opposition leaders and bad opposition leaders.
There have been opposition leaders in an easy situation and opposition leaders in a difficult situation.
But I can never remember an opposition leader who had such little curiosity and vision about the world.
I mean - why??
Where I was wrong, was I was expecting the inconsistent crossover figures to be around 34/35.
I wasn't expecting to be around 30%
We debate - a lot - our mystic meg skills on predicting crossover on here. What I really go by is the leadership ratings, preferred team on the economy, forced choice question and swing voter analysis. That's what will tell in the campaign IMHO.
Especially on their pet projects and on buying the loyalty of their voters.
Although to be pedantic it would be very welcome if government spending was reduced to the proportions of 1999.
Purrrr
This cartoon does remind me of the "Cock. Robin" joke that was so popular at school.
For a lot of core Tory supporters, even if they might have grumbles about gay marriage or Europe, when it comes to people's own self-interests, people who are retired and the very wealthy families have done pretty well out of this government. On the other hand, if Labour are signed up to austerity, they're going to be promising cuts for their own core voters. Now whether or not continued austerity is inevitable is another question (I certainly feel it isn't inevitable and wish Labour would just have the guts to say it and put that option on the table for people), but either way, inevitable or not, it doesn't change the fact that the Tories are going to have an "offer" which is more in the self-interests of their core voters, than Labour will.
I have a Superhero joke that I want to share.
Although, given the Lib Dems who criticise the coalition they are part of are a bit two-faced.
Got it, Vince Cable = Two Face
And generally those who use a lot of public services or are reliant generally on government spending.
It doesn't matter what Labour promises re public sector cuts because nobody will believe them. Everyone thinks Labour will try to increase government spending and the size of the public sector.
Now some people think that would be a good thing and some that would it would be a bad thing and some think that they would succeed and some think that they will fail.
But everyone still thinks that Labour will try to do it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=814QnE7yhts
My apologies for noticing, when I should be concentrating on I'm a Celebrity...