The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
"If you vote UKIP the following will happen. Verily.:
1) Water will turn into Blood (Labour Red Blood at that, not blue Tory blood) 2) There will be a plague of Frogs [shurely shome mishtake UKIP are anti immigration? Ed] 3) Plague of Lice (Faragensis lousis) 4) Plague of Flies [or is that drones. Ed?] 5) Terrible plague on all your livestock (we told you this would happen in 2001 if Labour won but you didn't listen- and it did) 6) Plague of Boils (because UKIP will abolish the NHS and charge you to treat them. Oh Yes.) 7) Thunderstorms, hail and fire (according to Mr Fish) 8) Plague of Locusts [See 2. Ed] 9) Darkness will be on the land [What do you expect in the middle of November? Ed] 10) Death of all firstborn in Rochester [You're fired. Ed] "
Good. I don't intend to move and if I did it would be to a bigger place so a house price crash will lower the differential. Also I have several children, a house price crash is the best news I could hope for for them.
The only people who benefit from high house prices are spoilt brats getting inheritances and the government who hoover up inheritance tax and pay out less in care home fees as the higher the price the longer before the victims money runs out.
"If you vote UKIP the following will happen. Verily.:
1) Water will turn into Blood (Labour Red Blood at that, not blue Tory blood) 2) There will be a plague of Frogs [shurely shome mishtake UKIP are anti immigration? Ed] 3) Plague of Lice (Faragensis lousis) 4) Plague of Flies [or is that drones. Ed?] 5) Terrible plague on all your livestock (we told you this would happen in 2001 if Labour won but you didn't listen- and it did) 6) Plague of Boils (because UKIP will abolish the NHS and charge you to treat them. Oh Yes.) 7) Thunderstorms, hail and fire (according to Mr Fish) 8) Plague of Locusts [See 2. Ed] 9) Darkness will be on the land [What do you expect in the middle of November? Ed] 10) Death of all firstborn in Rochester [You're fired. Ed] "
I like a bit of understatement. Sometimes less is more.
The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
The problem is that people do not want continued austerity with no real jam at the end of it all. Both major parties are promising it though. The SNP and UKIP can pick up votes by blaming foreigners for the woes, and a magic solution.
Sometimes politicians are punished for lying, but this time they are being punished for (partial) honesty.
The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
It does feel like no one likes any of the parties at the moment. I think this election will not be won by the voters voting for their party to win in but instead by the voters trying keeping the other side out.
Good. I don't intend to move and if I did it would be to a bigger place so a house price crash will lower the differential. Also I have several children, a house price crash is the best news I could hope for for them.
I couldn't agree more. I live near Woking and the house prices have become simply ridiculous. I don't know how much help two buy has added to the madness but the fact that the Tories think that the best way to put out a fire is to pour petrol on it is the main reason I won't vote for them.
The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
But Ed hasn't got crapper; he's been crap from long before he became Loto. What's changed, and will continue to, is that more and more people will realise that he's crap and that they don't want the weirdo as the man controlling our economy, or the man representing our country on the world stage.
This may not as yet have won the Tories more support, but the closer we get to the election, and people realise the choice they're being asked to make, I'm convinced that it will win the Tories more votes, and cost labour many more through switchers to the greens or UKIP, or to staying at home rather than voting.
The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
True. I don't like this government very much, though I like Labour less.
The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
The problem is that people do not want continued austerity with no real jam at the end of it all. Both major parties are promising it though. The SNP and UKIP can pick up votes by blaming foreigners for the woes, and a magic solution.
Sometimes politicians are punished for lying, but this time they are being punished for (partial) honesty.
Oh I think their honesty is extremely partial. On both sides of the fence.
Let's face it: we can't handle the truth. We just can't.
I like the cartoon, but I wonder where the second panel is?
The one where the Penguin and the Joker get hold of the controls and manage to crash the batmobile into a hospital, then a school, then a queue outside the job centre..
Good. I don't intend to move and if I did it would be to a bigger place so a house price crash will lower the differential. Also I have several children, a house price crash is the best news I could hope for for them.
I couldn't agree more. I live near Woking and the house prices have become simply ridiculous. I don't know how much help two buy has added to the madness but the fact that the Tories think that the best way to put out a fire is to pour petrol on it is the main reason I won't vote for them.
The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
I think you make some very valid points. Whatever successes the government could claim, or argue, not enough people seem to like the government, and they do not fear the alternative enough to maintain the distance between the parties that was there last time. I cannot see how a larger Tory lead could be achieved, even when imagining they will have a lead at all.
And what's worse for them, it seems there is little they can do about it. Entice UKIPers back? Maybe a few, but many have made a great deal out of how much they don't care if Ed M gets in as a result of voting UKIP, others actively want that to destroy the Tories, and every successful by-election win just makes it harder to argue voting UKIP is a wasted choice, so it would be very bold to rely on them switching back in large numbers. Even tacking hard right, which would lose the Tories votes as well, would not entice many such people back, but it's too late and in any case probably pointless to tack further left(centre). Add to that the crowning 'achievement' of this government, economic recovery, looks like falling back as well, or at least months of poor global economic news and likely downgrading of predictions for pace of growth in the UK, and there's very little the Tories can point to as reasons to vote for them, other than the standard lazy tactics which only appeal to the base. Labour can do the same lazy appeal and do much better.
Labour are going to walk this election if they can shore up their Scottish seats.
"If you vote UKIP the following will happen. Verily.:
1) Water will turn into Blood (Labour Red Blood at that, not blue Tory blood) 2) There will be a plague of Frogs [shurely shome mishtake UKIP are anti immigration? Ed] 3) Plague of Lice (Faragensis lousis) 4) Plague of Flies [or is that drones. Ed?] 5) Terrible plague on all your livestock (we told you this would happen in 2001 if Labour won but you didn't listen- and it did) 6) Plague of Boils (because UKIP will abolish the NHS and charge you to treat them. Oh Yes.) 7) Thunderstorms, hail and fire (according to Mr Fish) 8) Plague of Locusts [See 2. Ed] 9) Darkness will be on the land [What do you expect in the middle of November? Ed] 10) Death of all firstborn in Rochester [You're fired. Ed] "
I like a bit of understatement. Sometimes less is more.
But the above is always what we get with a Labour govt ... so for the hard of hearing there is no surprise in expecting it if people vote UKIP.
The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
The problem is that people do not want continued austerity with no real jam at the end of it all. Both major parties are promising it though. The SNP and UKIP can pick up votes by blaming foreigners for the woes, and a magic solution.
Sometimes politicians are punished for lying, but this time they are being punished for (partial) honesty.
Oh I think their honesty is extremely partial. On both sides of the fence.
Let's face it: we can't handle the truth. We just can't.
Fact. In situations like this, we get the political leaders and attendant policies we deserve.
The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
It does feel like no one likes any of the parties at the moment. I think this election will not be won by the voters voting for their party to win in but instead by the voters trying keeping the other side out.
That's bad news for the tories. Labour are much better at hating.
Good. I don't intend to move and if I did it would be to a bigger place so a house price crash will lower the differential. Also I have several children, a house price crash is the best news I could hope for for them.
I couldn't agree more. I live near Woking and the house prices have become simply ridiculous. I don't know how much help two buy has added to the madness but the fact that the Tories think that the best way to put out a fire is to pour petrol on it is the main reason I won't vote for them.
The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
I think you make some very valid points. Whatever successes the government could claim, or argue, not enough people seem to like the government, and they do not fear the alternative enough to maintain the distance between the parties that was there last time. I cannot see how a larger Tory lead could be achieved, even when imagining they will have a lead at all.
And what's worse for them, it seems there is little they can do about it. Entice UKIPers back? Maybe a few, but many have made a great deal out of how much they don't care if Ed M gets in as a result of voting UKIP, others actively want that to destroy the Tories, and every successful by-election win just makes it harder to argue voting UKIP is a wasted choice, so it would be very bold to rely on them switching back in large numbers. Even tacking hard right, which would lose the Tories votes as well, would not entice many such people back, but it's too late and in any case probably pointless to tack further left(centre). Add to that the crowning 'achievement' of this government, economic recovery, looks like falling back as well, or at least months of poor global economic news and likely downgrading of predictions for pace of growth in the UK, and there's very little the Tories can point to as reasons to vote for them, other than the standard lazy tactics which only appeal to the base. Labour can do the same lazy appeal and do much better.
Labour are going to walk this election if they can shore up their Scottish seats.
Not a chance of Labour shoring up those seats. The SNP played a very smart game over the weekend explicitly ruling out propping up a Conservative Government to remove the biggest reason why SNP / Labour voters would move back to Labour.
The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
OTH - the polls give the governing parties about 41 the opposition about 33 and the protest party about 14. Plus the SNP and Green factor. The poll position of the 'government' recovering from an inherited economic mess does not look too bad by historic standards to me.
The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
Labour are going to walk this election if they can shore up their Scottish seats.
I tend to agree that if Labour can keep their net losses in Scotland (like everyone else they will probably feed on the Lib Dems) to under a dozen they will probably be the largest party. That is a bit of an if though.
The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
I think
Labour are going to walk this election if they can shore up their Scottish seats.
Not a chance of Labour shoring up those seats. The SNP played a very smart game over the weekend explicitly ruling out propping up a Conservative Government to remove the biggest reason why SNP / Labour voters would move back to Labour.
In that case the Tories have a better chance than before, but Labour still hold the edge in terms of people willing to cut some kind of deal with them to gain power.
Anyone not convinced by how badly Miliband is going to hurt the Lab vote and help the Tories needs to watch more Miliband.
Remember the strikes interview. I'll link to it if you can't..
He's not great, but without a better Tory performance - and they haven't actually done terribly, poll wise, given their UKIP troubles and government austerity (to a degree) - he doesn't have to be. While not fearing a Labour government - given the economic situation I think they would be constrained in how much meddling would be permissible, limiting their positive and negative impact - it is troubling to me how easily they could get back into power in the current climate. Not enough struggle to earn the victory, it's bad for a party, just like being in power too long.
The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
OTH - the polls give the governing parties about 41 the opposition about 33 and the protest party about 14. Plus the SNP and Green factor. The poll position of the 'government' recovering from an inherited economic mess does not look too bad by historic standards to me.
Why do you think it is useful to add the Tory and Lib Dem support together? This government is not standing for election and it is going to use a lot of its support fighting each other.
"After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much"
On any conventinal reading I can't see why people don't like this government much. They're not particularly right wing they've presided over reasonably well off people becoming much richer and those without a job are now apparently working. They don't beat on minorities like they used to.....What's not to like?
I don't like them because I'm alergic to Tories but I've seem many less attractive Tory governments. The appearance of UKIP is living proof of what a really ugly right wing party can look like.....
The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
The problem is that people do not want continued austerity with no real jam at the end of it all. Both major parties are promising it though. The SNP and UKIP can pick up votes by blaming foreigners for the woes, and a magic solution.
Sometimes politicians are punished for lying, but this time they are being punished for (partial) honesty.
The problem lies with that great slogan from the early years of the Coalition: "We are all in this together".
If we imagine a scenario where that had proved to be true, and austerity had been equally shared across the nation, then I think the British people would have been much less unhappy with the Government.
This hasn't happened. Many people suspect that they are being asked to endure endless austerity while others - for many the "rich", but the finger also gets pointed at public sector workers, immigrants, welfare cheats, etc - are untouched.
Looking back now and the length of time for which rationing persisted after WWII seems remarkable. No doubt the rules were broken by many, and there was a thriving black market for those who could afford to pay extra. And yet, by and large, the country put up with it because it was perceived as equitable and temporary.
The austerity that many perceive they are being asked to accept is endless and unequal. Regardless of the economic necessity of balancing the books (as a nation, not just in the government accounts), I do not see it as surprising that people will refuse to accept austerity as presented in such a way.
One of the great failings of the Labour opposition is that they have presented no alternative. Everyone knows that they will pursue almost identical policies to the Coalition, but with the odd sprinkling of differentiation in tone, emphasis and detail.
The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
OTH - the polls give the governing parties about 41 the opposition about 33 and the protest party about 14. Plus the SNP and Green factor. The poll position of the 'government' recovering from an inherited economic mess does not look too bad by historic standards to me.
Why do you think it is useful to add the Tory and Lib Dem support together? This government is not standing for election and it is going to use a lot of its support fighting each other.
Perhaps the best way for the government to stay in power is just such a coupon election.
There is precedent from 1922 and again in the 1930s. Indeed some National Liberals lasted well into the Sixties.
Anyone not convinced by how badly Miliband is going to hurt the Lab vote and help the Tories needs to watch more Miliband.
Remember the strikes interview. I'll link to it if you can't..
He's not great, but without a better Tory performance - and they haven't actually done terribly, poll wise, given their UKIP troubles and government austerity (to a degree) - he doesn't have to be. While not fearing a Labour government - given the economic situation I think they would be constrained in how much meddling would be permissible, limiting their positive and negative impact - it is troubling to me how easily they could get back into power in the current climate. Not enough struggle to earn the victory, it's bad for a party, just like being in power too long.
He's not great?
Are you trying to win a comedy understatement award?
He is so obviously hopelessly inadequate for the role that he's put himself up for, it's laughable. Has there ever been an opposition leader so strongly supported by his opponents?
Increasingly the tendency ni this 24/7 news world is for the power behind the throne to the Chancellor with the PM a PR smoothie who is supposedly in charge but mainly there to look good and be a good PR. e.g. Brown/Blair + Osborne/Cameron.
Sadly, Miliband does not appear to have this "PR" ability and I think he will be mercilessly slaughtered by the media in the run up to the election. He comes across to me, no dou'b aided and abetted by the media, as a little not as others. I think such a quality in a politician is going to affect him quite significantly with C2,D,E voters, who historically disproportionally vote Labour. He will not get the votes of many of those who allow instinct, rather than reason, to colour their choice.
"After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much"
On any conventinal reading I can't see why people don't like this government much. They're not particularly right wing they've presided over reasonably well off people becoming much richer and those without a job are now apparently working. They don't beat on minorities like they used to.....What's not to like?
I don't like them because I'm alergic to Tories but I've seem many less attractive Tory governments. The appearance of UKIP is living proof of what a really ugly right wing party can look like.....
I would go further (but then I would). I think this has been an excellent government who have coped with a truly terrible position much better than could reasonably be expected and have managed to take a number of small steps back to sanity. I also think that the Lib Dems have made a positive contribution to this government and have stopped some of the right wing nonsense that has in the past made tory governments morally questionable.
But it is so much easier to believe that this government wants to cut public spending because it hates poor people and wants to cut taxes for the rich, even when they are paying more.
And to believe that Labour's refusal to address the extent of the problems is down to moral failings and rank dishonesty rather than a genuine reluctance to face the consequences for those in need.
And that UKIP are all truly fruitcakes rather than people who see some of the problems and how hard it is for a government regulated by the EU to actually do anything about it.
And that the SNP are all mad....hmm, may be on to something with that last one.
The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
But Ed hasn't got crapper; he's been crap from long before he became Loto. What's changed, and will continue to, is that more and more people will realise that he's crap and that they don't want the weirdo as the man controlling our economy, or the man representing our country on the world stage.
This may not as yet have won the Tories more support, but the closer we get to the election, and people realise the choice they're being asked to make, I'm convinced that it will win the Tories more votes, and cost labour many more through switchers to the greens or UKIP, or to staying at home rather than voting.
Nobody wins when their leader is on minus 56%.
The Conservatives will finish ahead. But, they're making heavy weather of it.
I assume that's Dave and George. Frankly it could be Brown and Miliband. The caricatures need work, I think.
And what trap?
No, no - it couldn't be Brown. He didn't see anything coming!
p.s. Caricatures are kind of difficult, under a mask. But I thought the Batman and Robin theme was good fun ... and I guessed most people would 'get it'.
The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
OTH - the polls give the governing parties about 41 the opposition about 33 and the protest party about 14. Plus the SNP and Green factor. The poll position of the 'government' recovering from an inherited economic mess does not look too bad by historic standards to me.
Why do you think it is useful to add the Tory and Lib Dem support together? This government is not standing for election and it is going to use a lot of its support fighting each other.
Perhaps the best way for the government to stay in power is just such a coupon election.
There is precedent from 1922 and again in the 1930s. Indeed some National Liberals lasted well into the Sixties.
The austerity that many perceive they are being asked to accept is endless and unequal. Regardless of the economic necessity of balancing the books (as a nation, not just in the government accounts), I do not see it as surprising that people will refuse to accept austerity as presented in such a way.
.
I'm not sure the unequal part is really bothering people, though I say that purely as a gut feeling with the lack of weight that deserves. People will always disagree about how cuts are divvied up, but the experience of this parliament seems to me that people will demand cuts in theory but resist in almost all instances in reality. That could be handled if it was to be a short term thing, we'd all grumble about it, vote out the Tories for overseeing it however necessary one feels it was, but the endless part is the key I think. First it was back to 2017, then 2018, at some point it will become 2020, I think everyone accepts that (and if the economy is felt to be picking up, there will be even less incentive from the public to cut to a 2018 schedule). Knowing there are to be all these 'cuts' and things are still going to be crap for the rest of the decade makes it seem pointless, so even if you support the austerity programme, as I do - the abject failure of the government on this is what finally drove me to stop giving them the benefit of the doubt - the pain will just be stretched out as long as possible, so why not vote for anyone, even parties previously considered 'riskier' as they let in the other side? It's not as though the pain will get that much worse if they are a disaster.
One of the great failings of the Labour opposition is that they have presented no alternative. Everyone knows that they will pursue almost identical policies to the Coalition, but with the odd sprinkling of differentiation in tone, emphasis and detail.
That is a great failing indeed. What makes it more tragic is that despite that being about as open and admitted as you can get in politics, many will probably vote against the exact policies of this government that, cosmetic differences aside, the next Labour government will implement, meaning the dissatisfaction will only continue. If Labour really were proposing something radically different, then all well and good, but that's not credible, and there are too many who even if they prefer Labour for all sorts of other reasons as many others do, are in for a rude awakening. It won't be a disaster, but it's not much of a breath of fresh air either, so no reason to get excited.
The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
Whenever I look at the Tory data, it seems that they are losing purely to UKIP.
That isn't about austerity and inequality, it's about immigrants and gay weddings.
The Tories are comfortably gaining net from their LibLab left.
Yes, Gideon thought the right had nowhere to go as they would never risk a Labour government. He wholly underestimated that social policies were as important, if not more important in some cases, than economic policies, and by subscribing to the liberal left social consensus made the rise of UKIP inevitable, as if Torys and Labour both had the same social policies the fear of Labour victory is replaced with a resigned shrug of "so be it"
Anyone not convinced by how badly Miliband is going to hurt the Lab vote and help the Tories needs to watch more Miliband.
Remember the strikes interview. I'll link to it if you can't..
He's not great, but without a better Tory performance - and they haven't actually done terribly, poll wise, given their UKIP troubles and government austerity (to a degree) - he doesn't have to be. While not fearing a Labour government - given the economic situation I think they would be constrained in how much meddling would be permissible, limiting their positive and negative impact - it is troubling to me how easily they could get back into power in the current climate. Not enough struggle to earn the victory, it's bad for a party, just like being in power too long.
He's not great?
Are you trying to win a comedy understatement award?
He is so obviously hopelessly inadequate for the role that he's put himself up for, it's laughable. Has there ever been an opposition leader so strongly supported by his opponents?
Perhaps not. He does seem to be an asset to his opponents. Bu the real comedy, or tragicomedy, will come if he still ends up as PM despite that. Given how poor he is supposed to be, that that result cannot be discounted (even if my prediction of an easy Labour win is hardly the accepted position) says a great deal.
The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
OTH - the polls give the governing parties about 41 the opposition about 33 and the protest party about 14. Plus the SNP and Green factor. The poll position of the 'government' recovering from an inherited economic mess does not look too bad by historic standards to me.
Why do you think it is useful to add the Tory and Lib Dem support together? This government is not standing for election and it is going to use a lot of its support fighting each other.
Perhaps the best way for the government to stay in power is just such a coupon election.
There is precedent from 1922 and again in the 1930s. Indeed some National Liberals lasted well into the Sixties.
Didn't they all stand as Tories by then?
According to Wikipedia (!) 3 National Liberals were elected in 1966, before they formerly merged. Heseltine stood as National Liberal too...
Whenever I look at the Tory data, it seems that they are losing purely to UKIP.
That isn't about austerity and inequality, it's about immigrants and gay weddings.
The Tories are comfortably gaining net from their LibLab left.
Yes, Gideon thought the right had nowhere to go as they would never risk a Labour government. He wholly underestimated that social policies were as important, if not more important in some cases, than economic policies, and by subscribing to the liberal left social consensus made the rise of UKIP inevitable.
Haha yes. In his metropolitan cocoon it was impossible for him to think that there were people who did not sign up for the trendy metropolitan agenda.
The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
But Ed hasn't got crapper; he's been crap from long before he became Loto. What's changed, and will continue to, is that more and more people will realise that he's crap and that they don't want the weirdo as the man controlling our economy, or the man representing our country on the world stage.
This may not as yet have won the Tories more support, but the closer we get to the election, and people realise the choice they're being asked to make, I'm convinced that it will win the Tories more votes, and cost labour many more through switchers to the greens or UKIP, or to staying at home rather than voting.
Nobody wins when their leader is on minus 56%.
The Conservatives will finish ahead. But, they're making heavy weather of it.
I think they will finish with a grugding victory of sorts. Probably short of a majority and getting very near a majority with the DUP supply and confidence, and find themselves having to court the UKIP MPs and anyone else they can persuade to support them on specific issues to get bills through.
In such a situation if I was Ed I would stay on as leader and announce the end of Pairing, then fight a war of attrition against them.
I like the cartoon, but I wonder where the second panel is?
The one where the Penguin and the Joker get hold of the controls and manage to crash the batmobile into a hospital, then a school, then a queue outside the job centre..
Ha ha ha!
Thanks JJ. That's a cool idea. If time permits, I may even do that for you. :-)
I like the cartoon, but I wonder where the second panel is?
The one where the Penguin and the Joker get hold of the controls and manage to crash the batmobile into a hospital, then a school, then a queue outside the job centre..
Ha ha ha!
Thanks JJ. That's a cool idea. If time permits, I may even do that for you. :-)
It may need a bit more thought than I gave to it, but would love to see something along those lines... It may need a panel or two more, like them aiming at bankers but missing?
The majority of UKIP voters are against austerity, according to the polls.
The majority of UKIP voters aren't ex-Tories.
It would make interesting reading to see what attitudes towards cuts/spending/taxes are within UKIP's vote when split according to where the supporter comes from - Tory/Lib/ Lab/other/ Lapsed voter
The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
I think you make some very valid points. Whatever successes the government could claim, or argue, not enough people seem to like the government, and they do not fear the alternative enough to maintain the distance between the parties that was there last time. I cannot see how a larger Tory lead could be achieved, even when imagining they will have a lead at all.
And what's worse for them, it seems there is little they can do about it. Entice UKIPers back? Maybe a few, but many have made a great deal out of how much they don't care if Ed M gets in as a result of voting UKIP, others actively want that to destroy the Tories, and every successful by-election win just makes it harder to argue voting UKIP is a wasted choice, so it would be very bold to rely on them switching back in large numbers. Even tacking hard right, which would lose the Tories votes as well, would not entice many such people back, but it's too late and in any case probably pointless to tack further left(centre). Add to that the crowning 'achievement' of this government, economic recovery, looks like falling back as well, or at least months of poor global economic news and likely downgrading of predictions for pace of growth in the UK, and there's very little the Tories can point to as reasons to vote for them, other than the standard lazy tactics which only appeal to the base. Labour can do the same lazy appeal and do much better.
Labour are going to walk this election if they can shore up their Scottish seats.
Not a chance of Labour shoring up those seats. The SNP played a very smart game over the weekend explicitly ruling out propping up a Conservative Government to remove the biggest reason why SNP / Labour voters would move back to Labour.
If a vote for the SNP is a vote for Miliband then you may as well just vote Labour and be done with it.
The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
But Ed hasn't got crapper; he's been crap from long before he became Loto. What's changed, and will continue to, is that more and more people will realise that he's crap and that they don't want the weirdo as the man controlling our economy, or the man representing our country on the world stage.
This may not as yet have won the Tories more support, but the closer we get to the election, and people realise the choice they're being asked to make, I'm convinced that it will win the Tories more votes, and cost labour many more through switchers to the greens or UKIP, or to staying at home rather than voting.
Nobody wins when their leader is on minus 56%.
The Conservatives will finish ahead. But, they're making heavy weather of it.
I think they will finish with a grugding victory of sorts. Probably short of a majority and getting very near a majority with the DUP supply and confidence, and find themselves having to court the UKIP MPs and anyone else they can persuade to support them on specific issues to get bills through.
In such a situation if I was Ed I would stay on as leader and announce the end of Pairing, then fight a war of attrition against them.
The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
About a year ago, I wrote a thread header, which concluded with
the 2015 General Election, when it comes to the leaders, it may be the case of the resistible force meets the moveable object.
The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
And yes, I agree with the consensus that the polling is getting ever more intriguing/frustrating! I was resigned to the Tories achieving "proper" crossover by now.
I suppose with her kitten heels Theresa May should be Catwoman although I suspect she is rather the kiss of death to liberal conservatism so I see her rather as Poison Ivy.
The thing is I still feel the Tories have a tighter grip on their "core" voters than Labour have on theirs. Any time where there's such a HUGE widespread anti-politics mood, I feel that usually favours the main centre-right party by default simply because their supporters, however disillusioned they may be with their party, will still ultimately see it as their "civic duty" to go out and vote. On the other hand, leftie supporters are typically more likely to flake off and give up on "the system" altogether.
And yes, I agree with the consensus that the polling is getting ever more intriguing/frustrating! I was resigned to the Tories achieving "proper" crossover by now.
I was expecting inconsistent crossover by summer 2014, and consistent crossover by Feb 2015.
Where I was wrong, was I was expecting the inconsistent crossover figures to be around 34/35.
The thing is I still feel the Tories have a tighter grip on their "core" voters than Labour have on theirs. Any time where there's such a HUGE widespread anti-politics mood, I feel that usually favours the main centre-right party by default simply because their supporters, however disillusioned they may be with their party, will still ultimately see it as their "civic duty" to go out and vote. On the other hand, leftie supporters are typically more likely to flake off and give up on "the system" altogether.
On the other hand you have the public sector and welfare voting blocs with a vested interest in a Labour government.
The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
The problem is that people do not want continued austerity with no real jam at the end of it all. Both major parties are promising it though. The SNP and UKIP can pick up votes by blaming foreigners for the woes, and a magic solution.
Sometimes politicians are punished for lying, but this time they are being punished for (partial) honesty.
Oh I think their honesty is extremely partial. On both sides of the fence.
Let's face it: we can't handle the truth. We just can't.
Absolutely - but Labour want to spend like its 1999
And yes, I agree with the consensus that the polling is getting ever more intriguing/frustrating! I was resigned to the Tories achieving "proper" crossover by now.
I was expecting inconsistent crossover by summer 2014, and consistent crossover by Feb 2015.
Where I was wrong, was I was expecting the inconsistent crossover figures to be around 34/35.
I wasn't expecting to be around 30%
I wasn't expecting Miliband to have ratings as bad as this either.
We debate - a lot - our mystic meg skills on predicting crossover on here. What I really go by is the leadership ratings, preferred team on the economy, forced choice question and swing voter analysis. That's what will tell in the campaign IMHO.
Whenever I look at the Tory data, it seems that they are losing purely to UKIP.
That isn't about austerity and inequality, it's about immigrants and gay weddings.
The Tories are comfortably gaining net from their LibLab left.
Yes, Gideon thought the right had nowhere to go as they would never risk a Labour government. He wholly underestimated that social policies were as important, if not more important in some cases, than economic policies, and by subscribing to the liberal left social consensus made the rise of UKIP inevitable.
Haha yes. In his metropolitan cocoon it was impossible for him to think that there were people who did not sign up for the trendy metropolitan agenda.
So its confirmed then - people who are bigoted are not voting conservative any more.
The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
The problem is that people do not want continued austerity with no real jam at the end of it all. Both major parties are promising it though. The SNP and UKIP can pick up votes by blaming foreigners for the woes, and a magic solution.
Sometimes politicians are punished for lying, but this time they are being punished for (partial) honesty.
Oh I think their honesty is extremely partial. On both sides of the fence.
Let's face it: we can't handle the truth. We just can't.
Absolutely - but Labour want to spend like its 1999
All the parties do.
Especially on their pet projects and on buying the loyalty of their voters.
Although to be pedantic it would be very welcome if government spending was reduced to the proportions of 1999.
I suppose with her kitten heels Theresa May should be Catwoman although I suspect she is rather the kiss of death to liberal conservatism so I see her rather as Poison Ivy.
Whenever I look at the Tory data, it seems that they are losing purely to UKIP.
That isn't about austerity and inequality, it's about immigrants and gay weddings.
The Tories are comfortably gaining net from their LibLab left.
Yes, Gideon thought the right had nowhere to go as they would never risk a Labour government. He wholly underestimated that social policies were as important, if not more important in some cases, than economic policies, and by subscribing to the liberal left social consensus made the rise of UKIP inevitable.
Haha yes. In his metropolitan cocoon it was impossible for him to think that there were people who did not sign up for the trendy metropolitan agenda.
So its confirmed then - people who are bigoted are not voting conservative any more.
I'm sure the Matthew Parris type of bigots will continue to vote Conservative.
The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
But Ed hasn'tn voting.
Nobody wins when their leader is on minus 56%.
The Conservatives will finish ahead.
Votes or seats?
Both.
This cartoon does remind me of the "Cock. Robin" joke that was so popular at school.
Whenever I look at the Tory data, it seems that they are losing purely to UKIP.
That isn't about austerity and inequality, it's about immigrants and gay weddings.
The Tories are comfortably gaining net from their LibLab left.
Yes, Gideon thought the right had nowhere to go as they would never risk a Labour government. He wholly underestimated that social policies were as important, if not more important in some cases, than economic policies, and by subscribing to the liberal left social consensus made the rise of UKIP inevitable.
Haha yes. In his metropolitan cocoon it was impossible for him to think that there were people who did not sign up for the trendy metropolitan agenda.
So its confirmed then - people who are bigoted are not voting conservative any more.
I don't know about that. A lot of people who are conservative aren't voting Conservative.
The thing is I still feel the Tories have a tighter grip on their "core" voters than Labour have on theirs. Any time where there's such a HUGE widespread anti-politics mood, I feel that usually favours the main centre-right party by default simply because their supporters, however disillusioned they may be with their party, will still ultimately see it as their "civic duty" to go out and vote. On the other hand, leftie supporters are typically more likely to flake off and give up on "the system" altogether.
On the other hand you have the public sector and welfare voting blocs with a vested interest in a Labour government.
But the problem is that Labour are not offering those blocs anything. They're presumably going to be promising more public-sector cuts, and they're constantly posturing about how they're going to be "tougher than the Tories" on welfare. (Incidentally, I don't know where the perception that benefit-claimants make up a big chunk of Labour support has come from? My own assumption would be that most of them wouldn't vote at all, and in fact of those who do vote I would expect a lot would be voting UKIP at the moment.)
For a lot of core Tory supporters, even if they might have grumbles about gay marriage or Europe, when it comes to people's own self-interests, people who are retired and the very wealthy families have done pretty well out of this government. On the other hand, if Labour are signed up to austerity, they're going to be promising cuts for their own core voters. Now whether or not continued austerity is inevitable is another question (I certainly feel it isn't inevitable and wish Labour would just have the guts to say it and put that option on the table for people), but either way, inevitable or not, it doesn't change the fact that the Tories are going to have an "offer" which is more in the self-interests of their core voters, than Labour will.
The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
But Ed hasn'tn voting.
Nobody wins when their leader is on minus 56%.
The Conservatives will finish ahead.
Votes or seats?
Both.
This cartoon does remind me of the "Cock. Robin" joke that was so popular at school.
The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
OTH - the polls give the governing parties about 41 the opposition about 33 and the protest party about 14. Plus the SNP and Green factor. The poll position of the 'government' recovering from an inherited economic mess does not look too bad by historic standards to me.
Why do you think it is useful to add the Tory and Lib Dem support together? This government is not standing for election and it is going to use a lot of its support fighting each other.
Perhaps the best way for the government to stay in power is just such a coupon election.
There is precedent from 1922 and again in the 1930s. Indeed some National Liberals lasted well into the Sixties.
Didn't they all stand as Tories by then?
According to Wikipedia (!) 3 National Liberals were elected in 1966, before they formerly merged. Heseltine stood as National Liberal too...
John Nott was the last MP to make his debut as a NL...
Whenever I look at the Tory data, it seems that they are losing purely to UKIP.
That isn't about austerity and inequality, it's about immigrants and gay weddings.
The Tories are comfortably gaining net from their LibLab left.
Yes, Gideon thought the right had nowhere to go as they would never risk a Labour government. He wholly underestimated that social policies were as important, if not more important in some cases, than economic policies, and by subscribing to the liberal left social consensus made the rise of UKIP inevitable.
Haha yes. In his metropolitan cocoon it was impossible for him to think that there were people who did not sign up for the trendy metropolitan agenda.
So its confirmed then - people who are bigoted are not voting conservative any more.
I'm sure the Matthew Parris type of bigots will continue to vote Conservative.
I think what really needs to be established is which party in the UK has the best bigots in their corner. The most intense, the most entertaining, the most reactionary. I'm off for an early night, but it's a question I will ponder.
The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
But Ed hasn'tn voting.
Nobody wins when their leader is on minus 56%.
The Conservatives will finish ahead.
Votes or seats?
Both.
This cartoon does remind me of the "Cock. Robin" joke that was so popular at school.
Given that the Tories most votes & most seats double is now evens with Shadsy, that's hardly a view that can be called outlandish!
Labour are going to walk this election if they can shore up their Scottish seats.
Not a chance of Labour shoring up those seats. The SNP played a very smart game over the weekend explicitly ruling out propping up a Conservative Government to remove the biggest reason why SNP / Labour voters would move back to Labour.
If a vote for the SNP is a vote for Miliband then you may as well just vote Labour and be done with it.
Interesting thought for you!
In nearly every one of the supposed SNP heartlands of the north east of Scotland, the vote was NO.
Alec Salmond had sooked up the anti "Glasgow orientated Labour" support - Tories who wouldn't want to be seen voting for them or the Novelle Tories. Now they are expected to swallow Sturgeon's socialist agenda Ain't gonna happen.
The thing is I still feel the Tories have a tighter grip on their "core" voters than Labour have on theirs. Any time where there's such a HUGE widespread anti-politics mood, I feel that usually favours the main centre-right party by default simply because their supporters, however disillusioned they may be with their party, will still ultimately see it as their "civic duty" to go out and vote. On the other hand, leftie supporters are typically more likely to flake off and give up on "the system" altogether.
On the other hand you have the public sector and welfare voting blocs with a vested interest in a Labour government.
But the problem is that Labour are not offering those blocs anything. They're presumably going to be promising more public-sector cuts, and they're constantly posturing about how they're going to be "tougher than the Tories" on welfare. (Incidentally, I don't know where the perception that benefit-claimants make up a big chunk of Labour support has come from? My own assumption would be that most of them wouldn't vote at all, and in fact of those who do vote I would expect a lot would be voting UKIP at the moment.)
For a lot of core Tory supporters, even if they might have grumbles about gay marriage or Europe, when it comes to people's own self-interests, people who are retired and the very wealthy families have done pretty well out of this government. On the other hand, if Labour are signed up to austerity, they're going to be promising cuts for their own core voters. Now whether or not continued austerity is inevitable is another question (I certainly feel it isn't inevitable and wish Labour would just have the guts to say it and put that option on the table for people), but either way, inevitable or not, it doesn't change the fact that the Tories are going to have an "offer" which is more in the self-interests of their core voters, than Labour will.
The welfare bloc contains many people of various tax credits as well.
And generally those who use a lot of public services or are reliant generally on government spending.
It doesn't matter what Labour promises re public sector cuts because nobody will believe them. Everyone thinks Labour will try to increase government spending and the size of the public sector.
Now some people think that would be a good thing and some that would it would be a bad thing and some think that they would succeed and some think that they will fail.
But everyone still thinks that Labour will try to do it.
Love the cartoon -you've not quite got that weird arse growing on the end of Osborne's nose though. It's very distinctive.
Though Robin has a better hairstyle than Osborne's notorious Blackadder the First...
That's given me an idea... Milibaldrick has a cunning plan
Sadly the real Milliband doesn't have anything approaching a plan -cunning or otherwise.
Freezing energy prices seems pretty Baldrickesque
When they would otherwise be falling.
I'm not sure that's definitely true right now. Despite the falling cost of gas & electricity the energy companies tend to buy a couple of years in advance so may have been fixed into their current prices. But why, if they did have a cheaper long term deal, would they offer it to their customers if they were to be legally obliged to fix it even if the prices then went up dramatically?
I suppose with her kitten heels Theresa May should be Catwoman although I suspect she is rather the kiss of death to liberal conservatism so I see her rather as Poison Ivy.
Comments
The tories are struggling to seal the deal. They are not really picking up support, only Labour's decline is reducing the lead. But every time the tories get a small lead it swings back to Labour.
After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much. They don't like the choice either. But every time they start to look like they have made that choice they have second thoughts.
At the last election the tories had a lead of 8%. Less than that and they will probably start to lose marginal seats. I say probably because UKIP do have the prospect of making them more efficient in terms of seat wins. At the moment a lead of considerably less than that looks very likely. It just does not seem to matter how crap Ed gets. They can't break away.
"If you vote UKIP the following will happen. Verily.:
1) Water will turn into Blood (Labour Red Blood at that, not blue Tory blood)
2) There will be a plague of Frogs [shurely shome mishtake UKIP are anti immigration? Ed]
3) Plague of Lice (Faragensis lousis)
4) Plague of Flies [or is that drones. Ed?]
5) Terrible plague on all your livestock (we told you this would happen in 2001 if Labour won but you didn't listen- and it did)
6) Plague of Boils (because UKIP will abolish the NHS and charge you to treat them. Oh Yes.)
7) Thunderstorms, hail and fire (according to Mr Fish)
8) Plague of Locusts [See 2. Ed]
9) Darkness will be on the land [What do you expect in the middle of November? Ed]
10) Death of all firstborn in Rochester [You're fired. Ed] "
Good. I don't intend to move and if I did it would be to a bigger place so a house price crash will lower the differential. Also I have several children, a house price crash is the best news I could hope for for them.
The only people who benefit from high house prices are spoilt brats getting inheritances and the government who hoover up inheritance tax and pay out less in care home fees as the higher the price the longer before the victims money runs out.
Sometimes politicians are punished for lying, but this time they are being punished for (partial) honesty.
This may not as yet have won the Tories more support, but the closer we get to the election, and people realise the choice they're being asked to make, I'm convinced that it will win the Tories more votes, and cost labour many more through switchers to the greens or UKIP, or to staying at home rather than voting.
Let's face it: we can't handle the truth. We just can't.
And what trap?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/travelnews/11236552/Air-traffic-timelapse-untangling-the-traffic-in-Britains-skies.html
The one where the Penguin and the Joker get hold of the controls and manage to crash the batmobile into a hospital, then a school, then a queue outside the job centre..
And what's worse for them, it seems there is little they can do about it. Entice UKIPers back? Maybe a few, but many have made a great deal out of how much they don't care if Ed M gets in as a result of voting UKIP, others actively want that to destroy the Tories, and every successful by-election win just makes it harder to argue voting UKIP is a wasted choice, so it would be very bold to rely on them switching back in large numbers. Even tacking hard right, which would lose the Tories votes as well, would not entice many such people back, but it's too late and in any case probably pointless to tack further left(centre). Add to that the crowning 'achievement' of this government, economic recovery, looks like falling back as well, or at least months of poor global economic news and likely downgrading of predictions for pace of growth in the UK, and there's very little the Tories can point to as reasons to vote for them, other than the standard lazy tactics which only appeal to the base. Labour can do the same lazy appeal and do much better.
Labour are going to walk this election if they can shore up their Scottish seats.
Someone play with me
Remember the strikes interview. I'll link to it if you can't..
"After numerous attempts one has to ask why. And the answer is surely that the majority of people don't like this government very much"
On any conventinal reading I can't see why people don't like this government much. They're not particularly right wing they've presided over reasonably well off people becoming much richer and those without a job are now apparently working. They don't beat on minorities like they used to.....What's not to like?
I don't like them because I'm alergic to Tories but I've seem many less attractive Tory governments. The appearance of UKIP is living proof of what a really ugly right wing party can look like.....
If we imagine a scenario where that had proved to be true, and austerity had been equally shared across the nation, then I think the British people would have been much less unhappy with the Government.
This hasn't happened. Many people suspect that they are being asked to endure endless austerity while others - for many the "rich", but the finger also gets pointed at public sector workers, immigrants, welfare cheats, etc - are untouched.
Looking back now and the length of time for which rationing persisted after WWII seems remarkable. No doubt the rules were broken by many, and there was a thriving black market for those who could afford to pay extra. And yet, by and large, the country put up with it because it was perceived as equitable and temporary.
The austerity that many perceive they are being asked to accept is endless and unequal. Regardless of the economic necessity of balancing the books (as a nation, not just in the government accounts), I do not see it as surprising that people will refuse to accept austerity as presented in such a way.
One of the great failings of the Labour opposition is that they have presented no alternative. Everyone knows that they will pursue almost identical policies to the Coalition, but with the odd sprinkling of differentiation in tone, emphasis and detail.
12 hours 11 minutes 10 seconds
There is precedent from 1922 and again in the 1930s. Indeed some National Liberals lasted well into the Sixties.
Are you trying to win a comedy understatement award?
He is so obviously hopelessly inadequate for the role that he's put himself up for, it's laughable. Has there ever been an opposition leader so strongly supported by his opponents?
Sadly, Miliband does not appear to have this "PR" ability and I think he will be mercilessly slaughtered by the media in the run up to the election. He comes across to me, no dou'b aided and abetted by the media, as a little not as others. I think such a quality in a politician is going to affect him quite significantly with C2,D,E voters, who historically disproportionally vote Labour. He will not get the votes of many of those who allow instinct, rather than reason, to colour their choice.
But it is so much easier to believe that this government wants to cut public spending because it hates poor people and wants to cut taxes for the rich, even when they are paying more.
And to believe that Labour's refusal to address the extent of the problems is down to moral failings and rank dishonesty rather than a genuine reluctance to face the consequences for those in need.
And that UKIP are all truly fruitcakes rather than people who see some of the problems and how hard it is for a government regulated by the EU to actually do anything about it.
And that the SNP are all mad....hmm, may be on to something with that last one.
The Conservatives will finish ahead. But, they're making heavy weather of it.
p.s. Caricatures are kind of difficult, under a mask. But I thought the Batman and Robin theme was good fun ... and I guessed most people would 'get it'.
That isn't about austerity and inequality, it's about immigrants and gay weddings.
The Tories are comfortably gaining net from their LibLab left.
In his metropolitan cocoon it was impossible for him to think that there were people who did not sign up for the trendy metropolitan agenda.
In such a situation if I was Ed I would stay on as leader and announce the end of Pairing, then fight a war of attrition against them.
It wont be pleasant to watch.
Thanks JJ. That's a cool idea. If time permits, I may even do that for you. :-)
Hope all is well with you?
It would make interesting reading to see what attitudes towards cuts/spending/taxes are within UKIP's vote when split according to where the supporter comes from - Tory/Lib/ Lab/other/ Lapsed voter
David Cameron as Batman
George Osborne as the Boy Wonder
Ed Miliband as the Joker
Nigel Farage as The Penguin
Luciana Berger as Harley Quinn
Caroline Lucas as Ra's Al Ghul (honestly, Ra's Al Ghul was an eco terrorist)
I'm struggling to work who would be The Scarecrow and The Riddler.
If anyone mentions Mr Freeze, they will be exiled to conhome, as I repress the film Batman and Robin, and pretend it never happened.
Also one of Batman's adversaries was called Owlman, so that might explain Labour's Owl policy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professor_Pyg
the 2015 General Election, when it comes to the leaders, it may be the case of the resistible force meets the moveable object.
Nothing has changed to make me revise my opinion
Would they please hire Richard Nabavi or DavidL and so have someone capable of putting a constructive and well mannered case for them.
There have been good opposition leaders and bad opposition leaders.
There have been opposition leaders in an easy situation and opposition leaders in a difficult situation.
But I can never remember an opposition leader who had such little curiosity and vision about the world.
I mean - why??
Where I was wrong, was I was expecting the inconsistent crossover figures to be around 34/35.
I wasn't expecting to be around 30%
We debate - a lot - our mystic meg skills on predicting crossover on here. What I really go by is the leadership ratings, preferred team on the economy, forced choice question and swing voter analysis. That's what will tell in the campaign IMHO.
Especially on their pet projects and on buying the loyalty of their voters.
Although to be pedantic it would be very welcome if government spending was reduced to the proportions of 1999.
Purrrr
This cartoon does remind me of the "Cock. Robin" joke that was so popular at school.
For a lot of core Tory supporters, even if they might have grumbles about gay marriage or Europe, when it comes to people's own self-interests, people who are retired and the very wealthy families have done pretty well out of this government. On the other hand, if Labour are signed up to austerity, they're going to be promising cuts for their own core voters. Now whether or not continued austerity is inevitable is another question (I certainly feel it isn't inevitable and wish Labour would just have the guts to say it and put that option on the table for people), but either way, inevitable or not, it doesn't change the fact that the Tories are going to have an "offer" which is more in the self-interests of their core voters, than Labour will.
I have a Superhero joke that I want to share.
Although, given the Lib Dems who criticise the coalition they are part of are a bit two-faced.
Got it, Vince Cable = Two Face
And generally those who use a lot of public services or are reliant generally on government spending.
It doesn't matter what Labour promises re public sector cuts because nobody will believe them. Everyone thinks Labour will try to increase government spending and the size of the public sector.
Now some people think that would be a good thing and some that would it would be a bad thing and some think that they would succeed and some think that they will fail.
But everyone still thinks that Labour will try to do it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=814QnE7yhts
My apologies for noticing, when I should be concentrating on I'm a Celebrity...