London Tories recognise the damage Lee Anderson is causing them, will the wider party?

Leon said:

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating

Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that

However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI

Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change

Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom



<0.01%
Yann LeCun
one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta
(less likely than an asteroid)

10%
Vitalik Buterin
Ethereum founder
(Specifically means AI takeover)

10%
Geoff Hinton
one of three godfathers of AI
(chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)

14%
Machine learning researchers
(From 2022, median value is 5%)

15%
Lina Khan
head of FTC

10-20%
Paul Christiano
(Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)

10-25%
Dario Amodei
CEO of Anthropic

20%
Yoshua Bengio
one of three godfathers of AI

20-30%
Elon Musk
CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X

5-50%
Emmet Shear
Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI

30%
AI Safety Researchers
(Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)

33%
Scott Alexander
Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten

35%
Eli Lifland
AI engineer
(Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)

50%
Holden Karnofsky
Executive Director of Open Philanthropy

10-90%
Jan Leike
alignment lead at OpenAI

60%
Zvi Mowshowitz
AI researcher

70%
Daniel Kokotajlo
OpenAI researcher & forecaster

>80%
Dan Hendrycks
Head of Center for AI Safety

>99%
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Founder of MIRI


It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here

Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago

Your posts about AI bore me sh1tless. Even if I get terminated by a robot sent by Skynet inside the next 18 months who metallically laughs at me whilst pacing out "Leon was right, you puny human" in a cybernetic Austrian accent I'll still draw my last dying breath recalling your warnings with tedium.

HOWEVER, you are right on that. Many of the youth have disconnected too much critical thinking for being fed what's on their social media thread instead, and that is a problem since this may affect them as much as anything else, like you say.

So I’m right that the world may end within a decade due to a cyborg takeover, but also boring at the same time?

I cherish your interventions in late January 2020, denouncing my warnings about that new virus from China, because you personally wanted to talk about the legal framework around domestic woodburners

Leon said:

Anabobazina said:

Leon said:

Anabobazina said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating

Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that

However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI

Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change

Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom



<0.01%
Yann LeCun
one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta
(less likely than an asteroid)

10%
Vitalik Buterin
Ethereum founder
(Specifically means AI takeover)

10%
Geoff Hinton
one of three godfathers of AI
(chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)

14%
Machine learning researchers
(From 2022, median value is 5%)

15%
Lina Khan
head of FTC

10-20%
Paul Christiano
(Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)

10-25%
Dario Amodei
CEO of Anthropic

20%
Yoshua Bengio
one of three godfathers of AI

20-30%
Elon Musk
CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X

5-50%
Emmet Shear
Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI

30%
AI Safety Researchers
(Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)

33%
Scott Alexander
Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten

35%
Eli Lifland
AI engineer
(Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)

50%
Holden Karnofsky
Executive Director of Open Philanthropy

10-90%
Jan Leike
alignment lead at OpenAI

60%
Zvi Mowshowitz
AI researcher

70%
Daniel Kokotajlo
OpenAI researcher & forecaster

>80%
Dan Hendrycks
Head of Center for AI Safety

>99%
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Founder of MIRI


It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here

Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago

To be fair you never heard young people banging on about the dangers of what.three.words either when you were assuring us that would be technological game changer.

I'm old enough to remember Leon repeatedly assuring us, five years ago, that China would be the biggest economy in the world in five years and any PBer who questioned his forecast was an idiot.

(I can also remember his more his more recent projection that Liz Truss would "surprise on the upside", but it would be ungentlemanly of me to salt the wound.)

China has the world’s largest economy by PPP - and has done for almost a decade. The Russo-Ukraine war teaches us that GDP by PPP is the best measure of national strength

LOL.

The very epitome of changing the goalposts to suit your argument.

You wasted thousands of pixels on here assuring us, daily, that China would by now be the world's largest economy, by the standard definition of GDP.

It is nowhere near. And, more to the point, few economists think it will be the world's largest economy any time soon.

No, I’m right right right right right right right and right again. Sorry

With the singular exception of what3words, but even they might surprise on the upside. Eventually

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating

Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that

However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI

Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change

Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom



<0.01%
Yann LeCun
one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta
(less likely than an asteroid)

10%
Vitalik Buterin
Ethereum founder
(Specifically means AI takeover)

10%
Geoff Hinton
one of three godfathers of AI
(chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)

14%
Machine learning researchers
(From 2022, median value is 5%)

15%
Lina Khan
head of FTC

10-20%
Paul Christiano
(Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)

10-25%
Dario Amodei
CEO of Anthropic

20%
Yoshua Bengio
one of three godfathers of AI

20-30%
Elon Musk
CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X

5-50%
Emmet Shear
Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI

30%
AI Safety Researchers
(Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)

33%
Scott Alexander
Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten

35%
Eli Lifland
AI engineer
(Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)

50%
Holden Karnofsky
Executive Director of Open Philanthropy

10-90%
Jan Leike
alignment lead at OpenAI

60%
Zvi Mowshowitz
AI researcher

70%
Daniel Kokotajlo
OpenAI researcher & forecaster

>80%
Dan Hendrycks
Head of Center for AI Safety

>99%
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Founder of MIRI


It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here

Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago

Your posts about AI bore me sh1tless. Even if I get terminated by a robot sent by Skynet inside the next 18 months who metallically laughs at me whilst pacing out "Leon was right, you puny human" in a cybernetic Austrian accent I'll still draw my last dying breath recalling your warnings with tedium.

HOWEVER, you are right on that. Many of the youth have disconnected too much critical thinking for being fed what's on their social media thread instead, and that is a problem since this may affect them as much as anything else, like you say.

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Speaker Hoyle retracts his offer of a debate for the SNP and they are really angry

https://news.sky.com/story/speaker-sir-lindsay-hoyle-retracts-offer-to-snp-for-emergency-ceasefire-debate-13081621

The SNP have every right to carp that they have had one of their three debates spiked by the speaker. The Speaker was out of order.

However, two of the last two debates motioned by the SNP are all about Gaza, as will be the next. It strikes me that mischief making is more important than the domestic issues the SNP were elected to resolve.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Carnyx said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Speaker Hoyle retracts his offer of a debate for the SNP and they are really angry

https://news.sky.com/story/speaker-sir-lindsay-hoyle-retracts-offer-to-snp-for-emergency-ceasefire-debate-13081621

The SNP have every right to carp that they have had one of their three debates spiked by the speaker. The Speaker was out of order.

However, two of the last two debates motioned by the SNP are all about Gaza, as will be the next. It strikes me that mischief making is more important than the domestic issues the SNP were elected to resolve.

It astounds me that intelligent PBers can't grasp that, at Westminster, thje SNP *were* elected to deal with UK foreign policy, inter aliis.

But how much of UK parliamentary time should any of them be dedicating to this? Neither side gives a particular damn what the UK thinks, and the amount of rancorous pontificating we go in for on the issue seems wholly disproportionate.

Leon said:

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating

Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that

However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI

Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change

Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom



<0.01%
Yann LeCun
one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta
(less likely than an asteroid)

10%
Vitalik Buterin
Ethereum founder
(Specifically means AI takeover)

10%
Geoff Hinton
one of three godfathers of AI
(chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)

14%
Machine learning researchers
(From 2022, median value is 5%)

15%
Lina Khan
head of FTC

10-20%
Paul Christiano
(Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)

10-25%
Dario Amodei
CEO of Anthropic

20%
Yoshua Bengio
one of three godfathers of AI

20-30%
Elon Musk
CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X

5-50%
Emmet Shear
Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI

30%
AI Safety Researchers
(Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)

33%
Scott Alexander
Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten

35%
Eli Lifland
AI engineer
(Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)

50%
Holden Karnofsky
Executive Director of Open Philanthropy

10-90%
Jan Leike
alignment lead at OpenAI

60%
Zvi Mowshowitz
AI researcher

70%
Daniel Kokotajlo
OpenAI researcher & forecaster

>80%
Dan Hendrycks
Head of Center for AI Safety

>99%
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Founder of MIRI


It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here

Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago

Your posts about AI bore me sh1tless. Even if I get terminated by a robot sent by Skynet inside the next 18 months who metallically laughs at me whilst pacing out "Leon was right, you puny human" in a cybernetic Austrian accent I'll still draw my last dying breath recalling your warnings with tedium.

HOWEVER, you are right on that. Many of the youth have disconnected too much critical thinking for being fed what's on their social media thread instead, and that is a problem since this may affect them as much as anything else, like you say.

So I’m right that the world may end within a decade due to a cyborg takeover, but also boring at the same time?

I cherish your interventions in late January 2020, denouncing my warnings about that new virus from China, because you personally wanted to talk about the legal framework around domestic woodburners

Stuartinromford said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Speaker Hoyle retracts his offer of a debate for the SNP and they are really angry

https://news.sky.com/story/speaker-sir-lindsay-hoyle-retracts-offer-to-snp-for-emergency-ceasefire-debate-13081621

The SNP have every right to carp that they have had one of their three debates spiked by the speaker. The Speaker was out of order.

However, two of the last two debates motioned by the SNP are all about Gaza, as will be the next. It strikes me that mischief making is more important than the domestic issues the SNP were elected to resolve.

Besides, the michief doesn't really work any more.

The SNP's game was to put up a "We think the Palestinians deserve a break (with these controversial/toxic terms and conditions)" motion- the sort of motion it would be bad to support and bad to oppose.

The effect of last week's antics was that Labour got to vote for a detoxified "We think the Palestinians deserve a break" motion, which sailed through. That makes it easier to oppose or ignore whatever the SNP put up next.

david_herdson said:

I don't disagree with TSE often but I'd be very surprised to see Khan take legal action against Anderson. Political battles - even ones that descend into gutter slander - are best dealt with in the court of public opinion and at the ballot box. I suspect a majority of the public tend towards that kind of opinion too. Anderson has already paid a price for his words (though how high a price depends on whether he's allowed to return to the Tory fold before the election - if indeed he wants to).

We also need to be wary of politicians suing each other over rhetoric, and I think most politicians get that, even when there's a solid case to be made that a particular statement was unjustified and defamatory.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

The outrageous treatment of the Scottish at Westminster only proves the point. Scotland must have independence or Gaza will never be free...

Err The Scots

Anabobazina said:

Leon said:

Anabobazina said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating

Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that

However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI

Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change

Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom



<0.01%
Yann LeCun
one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta
(less likely than an asteroid)

10%
Vitalik Buterin
Ethereum founder
(Specifically means AI takeover)

10%
Geoff Hinton
one of three godfathers of AI
(chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)

14%
Machine learning researchers
(From 2022, median value is 5%)

15%
Lina Khan
head of FTC

10-20%
Paul Christiano
(Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)

10-25%
Dario Amodei
CEO of Anthropic

20%
Yoshua Bengio
one of three godfathers of AI

20-30%
Elon Musk
CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X

5-50%
Emmet Shear
Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI

30%
AI Safety Researchers
(Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)

33%
Scott Alexander
Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten

35%
Eli Lifland
AI engineer
(Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)

50%
Holden Karnofsky
Executive Director of Open Philanthropy

10-90%
Jan Leike
alignment lead at OpenAI

60%
Zvi Mowshowitz
AI researcher

70%
Daniel Kokotajlo
OpenAI researcher & forecaster

>80%
Dan Hendrycks
Head of Center for AI Safety

>99%
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Founder of MIRI


It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here

Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago

To be fair you never heard young people banging on about the dangers of what.three.words either when you were assuring us that would be technological game changer.

I'm old enough to remember Leon repeatedly assuring us, five years ago, that China would be the biggest economy in the world in five years and any PBer who questioned his forecast was an idiot.

(I can also remember his more his more recent projection that Liz Truss would "surprise on the upside", but it would be ungentlemanly of me to salt the wound.)

China has the world’s largest economy by PPP - and has done for almost a decade. The Russo-Ukraine war teaches us that GDP by PPP is the best measure of national strength

LOL.

The very epitome of changing the goalposts to suit your argument.

You wasted thousands of pixels on here assuring us, daily, that China would by now be the world's largest economy, by the standard definition of GDP.

It is nowhere near. And, more to the point, few economists think it will be the world's largest economy any time soon.

Malmesbury said:

CatMan said:

Anabobazina said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating

Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that

However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI

Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change

Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom



<0.01%
Yann LeCun
one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta
(less likely than an asteroid)

10%
Vitalik Buterin
Ethereum founder
(Specifically means AI takeover)

10%
Geoff Hinton
one of three godfathers of AI
(chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)

14%
Machine learning researchers
(From 2022, median value is 5%)

15%
Lina Khan
head of FTC

10-20%
Paul Christiano
(Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)

10-25%
Dario Amodei
CEO of Anthropic

20%
Yoshua Bengio
one of three godfathers of AI

20-30%
Elon Musk
CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X

5-50%
Emmet Shear
Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI

30%
AI Safety Researchers
(Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)

33%
Scott Alexander
Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten

35%
Eli Lifland
AI engineer
(Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)

50%
Holden Karnofsky
Executive Director of Open Philanthropy

10-90%
Jan Leike
alignment lead at OpenAI

60%
Zvi Mowshowitz
AI researcher

70%
Daniel Kokotajlo
OpenAI researcher & forecaster

>80%
Dan Hendrycks
Head of Center for AI Safety

>99%
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Founder of MIRI


It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here

Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago

To be fair you never heard young people banging on about the dangers of what.three.words either when you were assuring us that would be technological game changer.

I'm old enough to remember Leon repeatedly assuring us, five years ago, that China would be the biggest economy in the world in five years and any PBer who questioned his forecast was an idiot.

(I can also remember his more his more recent projection that Liz Truss would "surprise on the upside", but it would be ungentlemanly of me to salt the wound.)

Impossible. Leon wasn't here five years ago!

Ha

Carnyx said:

Mexicanpete said:

Carnyx said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Speaker Hoyle retracts his offer of a debate for the SNP and they are really angry

https://news.sky.com/story/speaker-sir-lindsay-hoyle-retracts-offer-to-snp-for-emergency-ceasefire-debate-13081621

The SNP have every right to carp that they have had one of their three debates spiked by the speaker. The Speaker was out of order.

However, two of the last two debates motioned by the SNP are all about Gaza, as will be the next. It strikes me that mischief making is more important than the domestic issues the SNP were elected to resolve.

It astounds me that intelligent PBers can't grasp that, at Westminster, thje SNP *were* elected to deal with UK foreign policy, inter aliis.

One debate out of three, fair enough. But three out of three! Do they not have a domestic policy?

They didn't even get the last *debate*. And theyd have debated green energy as well, if Labour hadn't wrecked the day. And the last opposition day was pre Gaza, wasn't it? Are you thinking of the King's Speech debate?

Mexicanpete said:

Carnyx said:

Mexicanpete said:

Carnyx said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Speaker Hoyle retracts his offer of a debate for the SNP and they are really angry

https://news.sky.com/story/speaker-sir-lindsay-hoyle-retracts-offer-to-snp-for-emergency-ceasefire-debate-13081621

The SNP have every right to carp that they have had one of their three debates spiked by the speaker. The Speaker was out of order.

However, two of the last two debates motioned by the SNP are all about Gaza, as will be the next. It strikes me that mischief making is more important than the domestic issues the SNP were elected to resolve.

It astounds me that intelligent PBers can't grasp that, at Westminster, thje SNP *were* elected to deal with UK foreign policy, inter aliis.

One debate out of three, fair enough. But three out of three! Do they not have a domestic policy?

They didn't even get the last *debate*. And theyd have debated green energy as well, if Labour hadn't wrecked the day. And the last opposition day was pre Gaza, wasn't it? Are you thinking of the King's Speech debate?

Mind you it seems to have all worked in their favour. Labour plummeting by 4 points and an uptick in the SNP's fortunes.

And less of the intelligent PBer please!

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Speaker Hoyle retracts his offer of a debate for the SNP and they are really angry

https://news.sky.com/story/speaker-sir-lindsay-hoyle-retracts-offer-to-snp-for-emergency-ceasefire-debate-13081621

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

The outrageous treatment of the Scottish at Westminster only proves the point. Scotland must have independence or Gaza will never be free...

Err The Scots

I almost typed Scotch - was trying to satirise the kind of rant that will be written into SNP leaflets.

Well, if you insist that some MPs are to be treated as second class MPs and not allowed to do what other MPs are permitted to do, then what do you expect?

The matter is still rumbling on - but the Speaker is running out of time to resolve it equitably.

Seems signatures have risen to 80 and talk of the SNP making a formal complaint about both Hoyle and Starmer to the Privileges Committee

I still do not think this is going anywhere, but it will linger on for some time yet

Mexicanpete said:

Carnyx said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Speaker Hoyle retracts his offer of a debate for the SNP and they are really angry

https://news.sky.com/story/speaker-sir-lindsay-hoyle-retracts-offer-to-snp-for-emergency-ceasefire-debate-13081621

The SNP have every right to carp that they have had one of their three debates spiked by the speaker. The Speaker was out of order.

However, two of the last two debates motioned by the SNP are all about Gaza, as will be the next. It strikes me that mischief making is more important than the domestic issues the SNP were elected to resolve.

It astounds me that intelligent PBers can't grasp that, at Westminster, thje SNP *were* elected to deal with UK foreign policy, inter aliis.

One debate out of three, fair enough. But three out of three! Do they not have a domestic agenda?

Carnyx said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Carnyx said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

The outrageous treatment of the Scottish at Westminster only proves the point. Scotland must have independence or Gaza will never be free...

Err The Scots

I almost typed Scotch - was trying to satirise the kind of rant that will be written into SNP leaflets.

Well, if you insist that some MPs are to be treated as second class MPs and not allowed to do what other MPs are permitted to do, then what do you expect?

The matter is still rumbling on - but the Speaker is running out of time to resolve it equitably.

Its back to the aim. The SNP have no interest in Gaza other that political shenanigans. What they claim they wanted they have achieved - a call for an immediate ceasefire which is not what the government wanted. The absolute definition of what opposition days are there to try and achieve.

Nevertheless: the rules were broken in a way seriously inimical to the SNP and *any* non-majority party.

It astounds me that PBers, intelligent or otherwise, can't accept that the SNP hold the policy in good faith, given public opinion, and the unusual position of their leader. Of course, kneeing Labour int he nads is a good secondary aim, but in this instance you do need to do better than that.

MattW said:

Malmesbury said:

CatMan said:

Anabobazina said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating

Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that

However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI

Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change

Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom



<0.01%
Yann LeCun
one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta
(less likely than an asteroid)

10%
Vitalik Buterin
Ethereum founder
(Specifically means AI takeover)

10%
Geoff Hinton
one of three godfathers of AI
(chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)

14%
Machine learning researchers
(From 2022, median value is 5%)

15%
Lina Khan
head of FTC

10-20%
Paul Christiano
(Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)

10-25%
Dario Amodei
CEO of Anthropic

20%
Yoshua Bengio
one of three godfathers of AI

20-30%
Elon Musk
CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X

5-50%
Emmet Shear
Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI

30%
AI Safety Researchers
(Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)

33%
Scott Alexander
Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten

35%
Eli Lifland
AI engineer
(Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)

50%
Holden Karnofsky
Executive Director of Open Philanthropy

10-90%
Jan Leike
alignment lead at OpenAI

60%
Zvi Mowshowitz
AI researcher

70%
Daniel Kokotajlo
OpenAI researcher & forecaster

>80%
Dan Hendrycks
Head of Center for AI Safety

>99%
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Founder of MIRI


It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here

Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago

To be fair you never heard young people banging on about the dangers of what.three.words either when you were assuring us that would be technological game changer.

I'm old enough to remember Leon repeatedly assuring us, five years ago, that China would be the biggest economy in the world in five years and any PBer who questioned his forecast was an idiot.

(I can also remember his more his more recent projection that Liz Truss would "surprise on the upside", but it would be ungentlemanly of me to salt the wound.)

Impossible. Leon wasn't here five years ago!

Ha

Good job he's not called SeanT.

I just asked the Internet, and it says "séant" is polite slang in French for "arse".

eg "Les plus précieuses de ces dames s'étaient prémunies du confort spartiate des sièges métalliques en protégeant leur séant d'un coussin."

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

The path is now very clear for 30p Lee. Defect to UFUK. Noisily. Denouncing the Tories and everything they don't stand for. Foam on about "proper British values" which are anything but. Become the totem for the angry gammonite WWC. Lead the UFUK block in the Commons which will be bigger than the LibDem block as he shows the way for other angry doomed Tories. With a GBeebies show as a pulpit every week. Winning his seat at the GE.

Or, don't. Offer up an insincere apology and get the Tory whip back, only to get demolished at the election.

Didn't Tice offer him £400,000 to join ?

The rancour in politics is hard to witness and it is only getting worse

I did suggest yesterday that post GE the right may come together probably taking over the conservative party

Nothing in the last few days has done anything to change my view

Mind you Starmer has his own issues with a Savanta poll just now saying that 40% think he has an antisemitic problem in his party

https://twitter.com/journoamrogers/status/1762148517512982641?t=CIexLGiVib0gDeCTkWZ-2g&s=19


NB - On the Deltapoll Reform are on 10% (+3)

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

The path is now very clear for 30p Lee. Defect to UFUK. Noisily. Denouncing the Tories and everything they don't stand for. Foam on about "proper British values" which are anything but. Become the totem for the angry gammonite WWC. Lead the UFUK block in the Commons which will be bigger than the LibDem block as he shows the way for other angry doomed Tories. With a GBeebies show as a pulpit every week. Winning his seat at the GE.

Or, don't. Offer up an insincere apology and get the Tory whip back, only to get demolished at the election.

Didn't Tice offer him £400,000 to join ?

The rancour in politics is hard to witness and it is only getting worse

I did suggest yesterday that post GE the right may come together probably taking over the conservative party

Nothing in the last few days has done anything to change my view

Mind you Starmer has his own issues with a Savanta poll just now saying that 40% think he has an antisemitic problem in his party

https://twitter.com/journoamrogers/status/1762148517512982641?t=CIexLGiVib0gDeCTkWZ-2g&s=19


NB - On the Deltapoll Reform are on 10% (+3)

Given the current Govt is the most left wing of my lifetime, I do hope the centre right takes back control of the Tory party!

RochdalePioneers said:

Carnyx said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Carnyx said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

The outrageous treatment of the Scottish at Westminster only proves the point. Scotland must have independence or Gaza will never be free...

Err The Scots

I almost typed Scotch - was trying to satirise the kind of rant that will be written into SNP leaflets.

Well, if you insist that some MPs are to be treated as second class MPs and not allowed to do what other MPs are permitted to do, then what do you expect?

The matter is still rumbling on - but the Speaker is running out of time to resolve it equitably.

Its back to the aim. The SNP have no interest in Gaza other that political shenanigans. What they claim they wanted they have achieved - a call for an immediate ceasefire which is not what the government wanted. The absolute definition of what opposition days are there to try and achieve.

Nevertheless: the rules were broken in a way seriously inimical to the SNP and *any* non-majority party.

It astounds me that PBers, intelligent or otherwise, can't accept that the SNP hold the policy in good faith, given public opinion, and the unusual position of their leader. Of course, kneeing Labour int he nads is a good secondary aim, but in this instance you do need to do better than that.

Sorry, but can we define "policy". Look at Flynn's statement. He is talking as if there was not a motion passed for an immediate ceasefire, the same immediate ceasefire which is their stated policy.

The SNP are outraged because what a glorious opportunity to try and claim the English are treating them badly.

Politics is about working cross party to seek as much consensus as possible. They have no interest in that, and claim faux outrage and concern for Gaza. Bullshit.

RochdalePioneers said:

Carnyx said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Carnyx said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

The outrageous treatment of the Scottish at Westminster only proves the point. Scotland must have independence or Gaza will never be free...

Err The Scots

I almost typed Scotch - was trying to satirise the kind of rant that will be written into SNP leaflets.

Well, if you insist that some MPs are to be treated as second class MPs and not allowed to do what other MPs are permitted to do, then what do you expect?

The matter is still rumbling on - but the Speaker is running out of time to resolve it equitably.

Its back to the aim. The SNP have no interest in Gaza other that political shenanigans. What they claim they wanted they have achieved - a call for an immediate ceasefire which is not what the government wanted. The absolute definition of what opposition days are there to try and achieve.

Nevertheless: the rules were broken in a way seriously inimical to the SNP and *any* non-majority party.

It astounds me that PBers, intelligent or otherwise, can't accept that the SNP hold the policy in good faith, given public opinion, and the unusual position of their leader. Of course, kneeing Labour int he nads is a good secondary aim, but in this instance you do need to do better than that.

Sorry, but can we define "policy". Look at Flynn's statement. He is talking as if there was not a motion passed for an immediate ceasefire, the same immediate ceasefire which is their stated policy.

The SNP are outraged because what a glorious opportunity to try and claim the English are treating them badly.

Politics is about working cross party to seek as much consensus as possible. They have no interest in that, and claim faux outrage and concern for Gaza. Bullshit.

Anabobazina said:

Does anyone actually rate/support 30p Lee? He seems to be a laughing stock in his own party, and indeed his own seat of Ashfield.

What exactly is the point of him?

williamglenn said:

david_herdson said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

With Hungary's grudging yes, Sweden now joins Finland in Nato. The length of the Russia-Nato border has jumped fourfold since Putin's invasion. Yet people glibly say that Putin is winning. Strategically he's still losing.

https://twitter.com/EdwardGLuce/status/1762153983957680374

So Boris was right when he said to Putin that going into his neighbouring states meant more NATO, not less?

Boris was and is an ethically and morally bankrupt individual but for some reason actually became a half-decent leader on this particular issue.

Maybe it was Churchill cosplay and stopped clocks. Or maybe people are complex.

Part Chuchill cosplay; part Johnson's natural laziness. I imagine on this issue, he got good advice from the Foreign Office, Defence and MI6, and saw the opportunity to play his hero. He might even believe in it, inasfar as he believes in anything beyond himself.

He's clearly not thought it through fully though, or considers it secondary, otherwise he wouldn't be palling up with Trump and the Republicans who are doing all they can to let Russia win.

What good would it do to alienate the people who will likely control the US executive within months?

Mortimer said:

eek said:

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

The path is now very clear for 30p Lee. Defect to UFUK. Noisily. Denouncing the Tories and everything they don't stand for. Foam on about "proper British values" which are anything but. Become the totem for the angry gammonite WWC. Lead the UFUK block in the Commons which will be bigger than the LibDem block as he shows the way for other angry doomed Tories. With a GBeebies show as a pulpit every week. Winning his seat at the GE.

Or, don't. Offer up an insincere apology and get the Tory whip back, only to get demolished at the election.

Didn't Tice offer him £400,000 to join ?

The rancour in politics is hard to witness and it is only getting worse

I did suggest yesterday that post GE the right may come together probably taking over the conservative party

Nothing in the last few days has done anything to change my view

Mind you Starmer has his own issues with a Savanta poll just now saying that 40% think he has an antisemitic problem in his party

https://twitter.com/journoamrogers/status/1762148517512982641?t=CIexLGiVib0gDeCTkWZ-2g&s=19


NB - On the Deltapoll Reform are on 10% (+3)

Given the current Govt is the most left wing of my lifetime, I do hope the centre right takes back control of the Tory party!

People keep saying that but then don’t provide examples to back it up… so what makes this Tory Government left wing?

People keep asking me this then totally ignoring me when I provide concrete examples:


- Largest set of tax rises since the war
- Huge growth in bureaucracy i.e. civil service
- Govt paying part of everyone's energy bills
- Huge growth in NHS spending

Leon said:

I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating

Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that

However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI

Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change

Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom



<0.01%
Yann LeCun
one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta
(less likely than an asteroid)

10%
Vitalik Buterin
Ethereum founder
(Specifically means AI takeover)

10%
Geoff Hinton
one of three godfathers of AI
(chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)

14%
Machine learning researchers
(From 2022, median value is 5%)

15%
Lina Khan
head of FTC

10-20%
Paul Christiano
(Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)

10-25%
Dario Amodei
CEO of Anthropic

20%
Yoshua Bengio
one of three godfathers of AI

20-30%
Elon Musk
CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X

5-50%
Emmet Shear
Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI

30%
AI Safety Researchers
(Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)

33%
Scott Alexander
Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten

35%
Eli Lifland
AI engineer
(Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)

50%
Holden Karnofsky
Executive Director of Open Philanthropy

10-90%
Jan Leike
alignment lead at OpenAI

60%
Zvi Mowshowitz
AI researcher

70%
Daniel Kokotajlo
OpenAI researcher & forecaster

>80%
Dan Hendrycks
Head of Center for AI Safety

>99%
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Founder of MIRI


It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here

Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Carnyx said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Carnyx said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Carnyx said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

The outrageous treatment of the Scottish at Westminster only proves the point. Scotland must have independence or Gaza will never be free...

Err The Scots

I almost typed Scotch - was trying to satirise the kind of rant that will be written into SNP leaflets.

Well, if you insist that some MPs are to be treated as second class MPs and not allowed to do what other MPs are permitted to do, then what do you expect?

The matter is still rumbling on - but the Speaker is running out of time to resolve it equitably.

Its back to the aim. The SNP have no interest in Gaza other that political shenanigans. What they claim they wanted they have achieved - a call for an immediate ceasefire which is not what the government wanted. The absolute definition of what opposition days are there to try and achieve.

Nevertheless: the rules were broken in a way seriously inimical to the SNP and *any* non-majority party.

It astounds me that PBers, intelligent or otherwise, can't accept that the SNP hold the policy in good faith, given public opinion, and the unusual position of their leader. Of course, kneeing Labour int he nads is a good secondary aim, but in this instance you do need to do better than that.

Sorry, but can we define "policy". Look at Flynn's statement. He is talking as if there was not a motion passed for an immediate ceasefire, the same immediate ceasefire which is their stated policy.

The SNP are outraged because what a glorious opportunity to try and claim the English are treating them badly.

Politics is about working cross party to seek as much consensus as possible. They have no interest in that, and claim faux outrage and concern for Gaza. Bullshit.

Nowt sharn, yourself, old fruit, if I may so respond. Much of the argument on here - like yours - claims that the primary aim is to be horrible to Labour, break up Britain, etc. etc. and therefore [edit] by implicaiton (in many cases, not nec. yours) that it's legitimate to ignore and deny the SNP the normal functioning of Westminster. Which is exactly what has happened and how it's being justified.
The result was achieved using an illicit mode, which seriously damages the SNP's ability to function at Westminster. As well as the LDs. You should be able to see that.

I actually agree with you and indeed my wife, who is a Scot as you know, thought Stephen Flynn was excellent and had a genuine complaint

Furthermore she is not impressed with Sky's report the Speaker has reneged on his promise to the Scots

I would just add this is not about Gaza as she doesn't really understand the detail, but fairness to Scotland

And both my wife and I are unionists

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

The path is now very clear for 30p Lee. Defect to UFUK. Noisily. Denouncing the Tories and everything they don't stand for. Foam on about "proper British values" which are anything but. Become the totem for the angry gammonite WWC. Lead the UFUK block in the Commons which will be bigger than the LibDem block as he shows the way for other angry doomed Tories. With a GBeebies show as a pulpit every week. Winning his seat at the GE.

Or, don't. Offer up an insincere apology and get the Tory whip back, only to get demolished at the election.

Didn't Tice offer him £400,000 to join ?

The rancour in politics is hard to witness and it is only getting worse

I did suggest yesterday that post GE the right may come together probably taking over the conservative party

Nothing in the last few days has done anything to change my view

Mind you Starmer has his own issues with a Savanta poll just now saying that 40% think he has an antisemitic problem in his party

https://twitter.com/journoamrogers/status/1762148517512982641?t=CIexLGiVib0gDeCTkWZ-2g&s=19


NB - On the Deltapoll Reform are on 10% (+3)

Given the current Govt is the most left wing of my lifetime, I do hope the centre right takes back control of the Tory party!

Mortimer said:

eek said:

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

The path is now very clear for 30p Lee. Defect to UFUK. Noisily. Denouncing the Tories and everything they don't stand for. Foam on about "proper British values" which are anything but. Become the totem for the angry gammonite WWC. Lead the UFUK block in the Commons which will be bigger than the LibDem block as he shows the way for other angry doomed Tories. With a GBeebies show as a pulpit every week. Winning his seat at the GE.

Or, don't. Offer up an insincere apology and get the Tory whip back, only to get demolished at the election.

Didn't Tice offer him £400,000 to join ?

The rancour in politics is hard to witness and it is only getting worse

I did suggest yesterday that post GE the right may come together probably taking over the conservative party

Nothing in the last few days has done anything to change my view

Mind you Starmer has his own issues with a Savanta poll just now saying that 40% think he has an antisemitic problem in his party

https://twitter.com/journoamrogers/status/1762148517512982641?t=CIexLGiVib0gDeCTkWZ-2g&s=19


NB - On the Deltapoll Reform are on 10% (+3)

Given the current Govt is the most left wing of my lifetime, I do hope the centre right takes back control of the Tory party!

People keep saying that but then don’t provide examples to back it up… so what makes this Tory Government left wing?

People keep asking me this then totally ignoring me when I provide concrete examples:


- Largest set of tax rises since the war
- Huge growth in bureaucracy i.e. civil service
- Govt paying part of everyone's energy bills
- Huge growth in NHS spending

TimS said:

FPT

We done the new Deltapoll yet?

Voting Intention🚨🚨
Labour lead remains at twenty-one points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
Con 23% (-4)
Lab 44% (-4)
Lib Dem 11% (+3)
Other 21% (+3)
Fieldwork: 23rd - 26th February 2024
Sample: 1,490 GB adults
(Changes from 16th - 19th February 2024)

https://x.com/deltapolluk/status/1762121206205927596?s=46

Bit of a freakish one. And the usual frustration at “other” being grouped together. I’d guess Ref 10, Green 5, SNP 4, others 2.

EDIT: actually 10, 5, 3, 3 (looked in the data tables)

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Anabobazina said:

Does anyone actually rate/support 30p Lee? He seems to be a laughing stock in his own party, and indeed his own seat of Ashfield.

What exactly is the point of him?

He certainly has a constituency. I follow Khan on FB and every single thing he posts, however anodyne, has a legion of posts underneath it from various angry looking elderly white people saying that they no longer recognise London, would never go to London because it isn't safe, and accusing Khan of being some kind of Muslim extremist or hater of white people, generally peppered with grammatical errors and spelling mistakes. Of course they may all be fake profiles created by the Russians but I doubt it.

numbertwelve said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Anabobazina said:

Does anyone actually rate/support 30p Lee? He seems to be a laughing stock in his own party, and indeed his own seat of Ashfield.

What exactly is the point of him?

He certainly has a constituency. I follow Khan on FB and every single thing he posts, however anodyne, has a legion of posts underneath it from various angry looking elderly white people saying that they no longer recognise London, would never go to London because it isn't safe, and accusing Khan of being some kind of Muslim extremist or hater of white people, generally peppered with grammatical errors and spelling mistakes. Of course they may all be fake profiles created by the Russians but I doubt it.

We are just seeing the development of the next front in British politics developing, in anticipation of a Labour government.

A large subset of 2019 Tory voters might not vote for the Tories again, but they are I suspect highly persuadable to vote for a new right wing brand over the Labour Party, if given the opportunity.

The 2019 realignment might not have developed to the Tories' advantage, but those voters are still out there, and they're not Starmerites.

bondegezou said:

I note Susan Hall uses the approved Conservative Party jargon of "anti-Muslim hatred" rather than saying "Islamophobia". God knows why they feel the need to quibble over this. Kemi Badenoch tried explaining.

Mortimer said:

eek said:

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

The path is now very clear for 30p Lee. Defect to UFUK. Noisily. Denouncing the Tories and everything they don't stand for. Foam on about "proper British values" which are anything but. Become the totem for the angry gammonite WWC. Lead the UFUK block in the Commons which will be bigger than the LibDem block as he shows the way for other angry doomed Tories. With a GBeebies show as a pulpit every week. Winning his seat at the GE.

Or, don't. Offer up an insincere apology and get the Tory whip back, only to get demolished at the election.

Didn't Tice offer him £400,000 to join ?

The rancour in politics is hard to witness and it is only getting worse

I did suggest yesterday that post GE the right may come together probably taking over the conservative party

Nothing in the last few days has done anything to change my view

Mind you Starmer has his own issues with a Savanta poll just now saying that 40% think he has an antisemitic problem in his party

https://twitter.com/journoamrogers/status/1762148517512982641?t=CIexLGiVib0gDeCTkWZ-2g&s=19


NB - On the Deltapoll Reform are on 10% (+3)

Given the current Govt is the most left wing of my lifetime, I do hope the centre right takes back control of the Tory party!

People keep saying that but then don’t provide examples to back it up… so what makes this Tory Government left wing?

People keep asking me this then totally ignoring me when I provide concrete examples:


- Largest set of tax rises since the war
- Huge growth in bureaucracy i.e. civil service
- Govt paying part of everyone's energy bills
- Huge growth in NHS spending

DecrepiterJohnL said:

UK and allies expose evolving tactics of Russian cyber actors
New advisory reveals evolving tactics used by Russian state-linked cyber actors as more organisations move to cloud-based infrastructure.
https://www.ncsc.gov.uk/news/uk-allies-expose-evolving-tactics-of-russian-cyber-actors

A new report from the NCSC and its foreign equivalents. Keep safe, everyone.

Leon said:

I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating

Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that

However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI

Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change

Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom



<0.01%
Yann LeCun
one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta
(less likely than an asteroid)

10%
Vitalik Buterin
Ethereum founder
(Specifically means AI takeover)

10%
Geoff Hinton
one of three godfathers of AI
(chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)

14%
Machine learning researchers
(From 2022, median value is 5%)

15%
Lina Khan
head of FTC

10-20%
Paul Christiano
(Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)

10-25%
Dario Amodei
CEO of Anthropic

20%
Yoshua Bengio
one of three godfathers of AI

20-30%
Elon Musk
CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X

5-50%
Emmet Shear
Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI

30%
AI Safety Researchers
(Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)

33%
Scott Alexander
Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten

35%
Eli Lifland
AI engineer
(Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)

50%
Holden Karnofsky
Executive Director of Open Philanthropy

10-90%
Jan Leike
alignment lead at OpenAI

60%
Zvi Mowshowitz
AI researcher

70%
Daniel Kokotajlo
OpenAI researcher & forecaster

>80%
Dan Hendrycks
Head of Center for AI Safety

>99%
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Founder of MIRI


It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here

Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago

No_Offence_Alan said:

bondegezou said:

I note Susan Hall uses the approved Conservative Party jargon of "anti-Muslim hatred" rather than saying "Islamophobia". God knows why they feel the need to quibble over this. Kemi Badenoch tried explaining.

Anti-Semitism and Anti-Zionism are two separate terms, why not two terms on the opposite side of the "debate"?

Mortimer said:

eek said:

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

The path is now very clear for 30p Lee. Defect to UFUK. Noisily. Denouncing the Tories and everything they don't stand for. Foam on about "proper British values" which are anything but. Become the totem for the angry gammonite WWC. Lead the UFUK block in the Commons which will be bigger than the LibDem block as he shows the way for other angry doomed Tories. With a GBeebies show as a pulpit every week. Winning his seat at the GE.

Or, don't. Offer up an insincere apology and get the Tory whip back, only to get demolished at the election.

Didn't Tice offer him £400,000 to join ?

The rancour in politics is hard to witness and it is only getting worse

I did suggest yesterday that post GE the right may come together probably taking over the conservative party

Nothing in the last few days has done anything to change my view

Mind you Starmer has his own issues with a Savanta poll just now saying that 40% think he has an antisemitic problem in his party

https://twitter.com/journoamrogers/status/1762148517512982641?t=CIexLGiVib0gDeCTkWZ-2g&s=19


NB - On the Deltapoll Reform are on 10% (+3)

Given the current Govt is the most left wing of my lifetime, I do hope the centre right takes back control of the Tory party!

People keep saying that but then don’t provide examples to back it up… so what makes this Tory Government left wing?

People keep asking me this then totally ignoring me when I provide concrete examples:


- Largest set of tax rises since the war
- Huge growth in bureaucracy i.e. civil service
- Govt paying part of everyone's energy bills
- Huge growth in NHS spending

numbertwelve said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Anabobazina said:

Does anyone actually rate/support 30p Lee? He seems to be a laughing stock in his own party, and indeed his own seat of Ashfield.

What exactly is the point of him?

He certainly has a constituency. I follow Khan on FB and every single thing he posts, however anodyne, has a legion of posts underneath it from various angry looking elderly white people saying that they no longer recognise London, would never go to London because it isn't safe, and accusing Khan of being some kind of Muslim extremist or hater of white people, generally peppered with grammatical errors and spelling mistakes. Of course they may all be fake profiles created by the Russians but I doubt it.

We are just seeing the development of the next front in British politics developing, in anticipation of a Labour government.

A large subset of 2019 Tory voters might not vote for the Tories again, but they are I suspect highly persuadable to vote for a new right wing brand over the Labour Party, if given the opportunity.

The 2019 realignment might not have developed to the Tories' advantage, but those voters are still out there, and they're not Starmerites.

No_Offence_Alan said:

bondegezou said:

I note Susan Hall uses the approved Conservative Party jargon of "anti-Muslim hatred" rather than saying "Islamophobia". God knows why they feel the need to quibble over this. Kemi Badenoch tried explaining.

Anti-Semitism and Anti-Zionism are two separate terms, why not two terms on the opposite side of the "debate"?

No_Offence_Alan said:

bondegezou said:

I note Susan Hall uses the approved Conservative Party jargon of "anti-Muslim hatred" rather than saying "Islamophobia". God knows why they feel the need to quibble over this. Kemi Badenoch tried explaining.

Anti-Semitism and Anti-Zionism are two separate terms, why not two terms on the opposite side of the "debate"?

No_Offence_Alan said:

bondegezou said:

I note Susan Hall uses the approved Conservative Party jargon of "anti-Muslim hatred" rather than saying "Islamophobia". God knows why they feel the need to quibble over this. Kemi Badenoch tried explaining.

Anti-Semitism and Anti-Zionism are two separate terms, why not two terms on the opposite side of the "debate"?

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

eek said:

Mortimer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

The path is now very clear for 30p Lee. Defect to UFUK. Noisily. Denouncing the Tories and everything they don't stand for. Foam on about "proper British values" which are anything but. Become the totem for the angry gammonite WWC. Lead the UFUK block in the Commons which will be bigger than the LibDem block as he shows the way for other angry doomed Tories. With a GBeebies show as a pulpit every week. Winning his seat at the GE.

Or, don't. Offer up an insincere apology and get the Tory whip back, only to get demolished at the election.

Didn't Tice offer him £400,000 to join ?

The rancour in politics is hard to witness and it is only getting worse

I did suggest yesterday that post GE the right may come together probably taking over the conservative party

Nothing in the last few days has done anything to change my view

Mind you Starmer has his own issues with a Savanta poll just now saying that 40% think he has an antisemitic problem in his party

https://twitter.com/journoamrogers/status/1762148517512982641?t=CIexLGiVib0gDeCTkWZ-2g&s=19


NB - On the Deltapoll Reform are on 10% (+3)

Given the current Govt is the most left wing of my lifetime, I do hope the centre right takes back control of the Tory party!

People keep saying that but then don’t provide examples to back it up… so what makes this Tory Government left wing?

People keep asking me this then totally ignoring me when I provide concrete examples:


- Largest set of tax rises since the war
- Huge growth in bureaucracy i.e. civil service
- Govt paying part of everyone's energy bills
- Huge growth in NHS spending

Well, I agree with you regarding energy bills. I think that kind of government support is dumb and means that energy demand doesn't fall as much as it should.

But are you sure regarding bureaucracy? It is worth remembering that - because spending on the NHS and pensions is baked in to keep rising - pretty much every other department is seeing real terms reductions in spending.

And tax rises? Are you sure there too? The early Thatcher budgets were massively tax raising as she closed the big hole in the finances left by Callaghan. (The charts are here: https://obr.uk/box/the-uks-tax-burden-in-historical-and-international-context/ - and '79 to '83 saw a 5 percentage point increase in tax take as a % of GDP against 2 percentage points in the the last few years.)

There are some interesting numbers in this: https://civilservant.org.uk/information-numbers.html

Basically the civil service is now 26% bigger than it was in 2016 but still not as big as it was in 2005. The Civil Service is also becoming more senior with an ever higher percentage in the higher paid ranks or more chiefs and fewer Indians if you are still allowed to say that.

These figures can be distorted by jobs being contracted out and other definitional problems but a 26% increase is still pretty remarkable. Much of Osborne's good work has been undone for very little obvious benefit.

david_herdson said:

Mexicanpete said:

Carnyx said:

Mexicanpete said:

Carnyx said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Speaker Hoyle retracts his offer of a debate for the SNP and they are really angry

https://news.sky.com/story/speaker-sir-lindsay-hoyle-retracts-offer-to-snp-for-emergency-ceasefire-debate-13081621

The SNP have every right to carp that they have had one of their three debates spiked by the speaker. The Speaker was out of order.

However, two of the last two debates motioned by the SNP are all about Gaza, as will be the next. It strikes me that mischief making is more important than the domestic issues the SNP were elected to resolve.

It astounds me that intelligent PBers can't grasp that, at Westminster, thje SNP *were* elected to deal with UK foreign policy, inter aliis.

One debate out of three, fair enough. But three out of three! Do they not have a domestic policy?

They didn't even get the last *debate*. And theyd have debated green energy as well, if Labour hadn't wrecked the day. And the last opposition day was pre Gaza, wasn't it? Are you thinking of the King's Speech debate?

Mind you it seems to have all worked in their favour. Labour plummeting by 4 points and an uptick in the SNP's fortunes.

And less of the intelligent PBer please!

The Deltapoll poll has Labour back into the 43-45 range that every other poll of theirs this year has landed them in, so I'm not sure I'd call that a 'plummet'.

By contrast, their share of 23% for the Tories is by some way their worst for Team Blue in 2024; all the rest are 27-29.