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London Tories recognise the damage Lee Anderson is causing them, will the wider party?

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 12 in General
London Tories recognise the damage Lee Anderson is causing them – politicalbetting.com

Let's come together. Sadiq Khan and I have lots of disagreements – but on this vital issue, we agree. Antisemitic and anti-Muslim hatred has no place in our city or in our politics. We must do everything we can to stamp it out.https://t.co/VdP4scwAI8

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • First like Khan.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,147
    edited February 26
    Second like the Wrath of Khan.

    (In the Star Trek film franchise.)
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,309
    FPT

    We done the new Deltapoll yet?

    Voting Intention🚨🚨
    Labour lead remains at twenty-one points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 23% (-4)
    Lab 44% (-4)
    Lib Dem 11% (+3)
    Other 21% (+3)
    Fieldwork: 23rd - 26th February 2024
    Sample: 1,490 GB adults
    (Changes from 16th - 19th February 2024)

    https://x.com/deltapolluk/status/1762121206205927596?s=46

    Bit of a freakish one. And the usual frustration at “other” being grouped together. I’d guess Ref 10, Green 5, SNP 4, others 2.

    EDIT: actually 10, 5, 3, 3 (looked in the data tables)
  • TimS said:

    FPT

    We done the new Deltapoll yet?

    Voting Intention🚨🚨
    Labour lead remains at twenty-one points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 23% (-4)
    Lab 44% (-4)
    Lib Dem 11% (+3)
    Other 21% (+3)
    Fieldwork: 23rd - 26th February 2024
    Sample: 1,490 GB adults
    (Changes from 16th - 19th February 2024)

    https://x.com/deltapolluk/status/1762121206205927596?s=46

    Bit of a freakish one. And the usual frustration at “other” being grouped together. I’d guess Ref 10, Green 5, SNP 4, others 2.

    EDIT: actually 10, 5, 3, 3 (looked in the data tables)

    Humdinger of a Scottish subsample.

    SNP 31

    Lab 29

    LD 24

    Con 9
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,452
    edited February 26
    kamski said: "FWIW I think Obama pretty much continued Bush foreign policy, . . . "

    There's an exception that deserves more attention than it has received. Early in his first campaign for the presidency, Obama admitted that withdrawing from Iraq as he was advocating might lead to a genocide. (I was astonished at the time by his honesty.)

    We elected him. He chose as a principal advisor one Susan Rice, most famous at the time for this: 'At the time of the 1994 Rwandan genocide, Rice reportedly said, "If we use the word 'genocide' and are seen as doing nothing, what will be the effect on the November election?'
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Susan_Rice#Clinton_administration_(1993–2001)

    (He also chose Samantha Power, who had criticized Rice in her book.)

    We re-elected Obama and, in his second term, there was a genocide in Iraq that could have been prevented had he actually followed Bush policies. Since the victims were mostly Christians and Yazidis, that genocide didn't matter to most on the left.

    If Obama, or Rice, has done anything to help the victims of his policy since leaving office, I missed it.

    (Copied from previous thread.)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,182
    Cookie said:

    It's not immediately apparent from the provinces what Lee Anderson has said which is wrong. The Palestine lobby appears to have a free pass in London - block Tower Bridge, light up parliament, do what you like boys, as long as you wave the little black white green and red flag.

    He implied that Khan is doing it because he's a Muslim. He isn't. He does it because he's a Lefty and the Left don't want to annoy the Muslim vote.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,300
    tlg86 said:

    Cookie said:

    It's not immediately apparent from the provinces what Lee Anderson has said which is wrong. The Palestine lobby appears to have a free pass in London - block Tower Bridge, light up parliament, do what you like boys, as long as you wave the little black white green and red flag.

    He implied that Khan is doing it because he's a Muslim. He isn't. He does it because he's a Lefty and the Left don't want to annoy the Muslim vote.
    Well fair enough, I accept those two are different - but the functional output is the same.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,310
    Be nice to think Susan Hall was doing this because she finds Anderson's comments repugnant, wouldn't it? Would be really nice. For other Tories, and many of them before the Johnsonian purge, I could have believed it too...
  • Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    Cookie said:

    It's not immediately apparent from the provinces what Lee Anderson has said which is wrong. The Palestine lobby appears to have a free pass in London - block Tower Bridge, light up parliament, do what you like boys, as long as you wave the little black white green and red flag.

    He implied that Khan is doing it because he's a Muslim. He isn't. He does it because he's a Lefty and the Left don't want to annoy the Muslim vote.
    Well fair enough, I accept those two are different - but the functional output is the same.
    That would be the same London where dozens of Palestine lobby members have been arrested for hate crimes, so much for the free pass.

    12 the weekend before last an example.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,455
    Cookie said:

    It's not immediately apparent from the provinces what Lee Anderson has said which is wrong. The Palestine lobby appears to have a free pass in London - block Tower Bridge, light up parliament, do what you like boys, as long as you wave the little black white green and red flag.

    From this provincial point of view we would think that this is largely a matter where responsibility will devolve upon the Met and the Home Secretary. Does the mayor of London have direct law and order powers with regard to either strategy or operations?
  • algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    It's not immediately apparent from the provinces what Lee Anderson has said which is wrong. The Palestine lobby appears to have a free pass in London - block Tower Bridge, light up parliament, do what you like boys, as long as you wave the little black white green and red flag.

    From this provincial point of view we would think that this is largely a matter where responsibility will devolve upon the Met and the Home Secretary. Does the mayor of London have direct law and order powers with regard to either strategy or operations?
    Both, but in certain areas.

    The reality is the Commissioner relies on both the support of the Home Secretary and Mayor, and as Boris Johnson and Sadiq Khan have shown, they have made a Commissioner resign when they publicly withdrew that support.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,037

    algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    It's not immediately apparent from the provinces what Lee Anderson has said which is wrong. The Palestine lobby appears to have a free pass in London - block Tower Bridge, light up parliament, do what you like boys, as long as you wave the little black white green and red flag.

    From this provincial point of view we would think that this is largely a matter where responsibility will devolve upon the Met and the Home Secretary. Does the mayor of London have direct law and order powers with regard to either strategy or operations?
    Both, but in certain areas.

    The reality is the Commissioner relies on both the support of the Home Secretary and Mayor, and as Boris Johnson and Sadiq Khan have shown, they have made a Commissioner resign when they publicly withdrew that support.
    https://www.london.gov.uk/programmes-strategies/mayors-office-policing-and-crime-mopac/about-mayors-office-policing-and-crime-mopac


    One of the Mayor’s key responsibilities is overseeing the work of the Metropolitan Police Service (MPS) – setting the priorities for policing and community safety in London, agreeing the policing budget and holding the Met Commissioner to account for delivering a professional, efficient and effective service to Londoners.

    The Mayor has appointed Sophie Linden as Deputy Mayor for Policing and Crime (DMPC) to oversee this vital work.

    At the heart of our work is the Mayor’s Police and Crime Plan – a statutory document that sets out the key priorities for the term ahead, how we will work to deliver them and how we will oversee delivery.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,454
    I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating

    Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that

    However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI

    Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change

    Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom



    <0.01%
    Yann LeCun
    one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta
    (less likely than an asteroid)

    10%
    Vitalik Buterin
    Ethereum founder
    (Specifically means AI takeover)

    10%
    Geoff Hinton
    one of three godfathers of AI
    (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)

    14%
    Machine learning researchers
    (From 2022, median value is 5%)

    15%
    Lina Khan
    head of FTC

    10-20%
    Paul Christiano
    (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)

    10-25%
    Dario Amodei
    CEO of Anthropic

    20%
    Yoshua Bengio
    one of three godfathers of AI

    20-30%
    Elon Musk
    CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X

    5-50%
    Emmet Shear
    Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI

    30%
    AI Safety Researchers
    (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)

    33%
    Scott Alexander
    Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten

    35%
    Eli Lifland
    AI engineer
    (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)

    50%
    Holden Karnofsky
    Executive Director of Open Philanthropy

    10-90%
    Jan Leike
    alignment lead at OpenAI

    60%
    Zvi Mowshowitz
    AI researcher

    70%
    Daniel Kokotajlo
    OpenAI researcher & forecaster

    >80%
    Dan Hendrycks
    Head of Center for AI Safety

    >99%
    Eliezer Yudkowsky
    Founder of MIRI


    It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here

    Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,054
    Cookie said:

    It's not immediately apparent from the provinces what Lee Anderson has said which is wrong. The Palestine lobby appears to have a free pass in London - block Tower Bridge, light up parliament, do what you like boys, as long as you wave the little black white green and red flag.

    So you identify anyone demonstrating against Israel's actions in Gaza as an "Islamist"????????????

    Many of the demonstrators aren't even Muslims!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,037

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    Cookie said:

    It's not immediately apparent from the provinces what Lee Anderson has said which is wrong. The Palestine lobby appears to have a free pass in London - block Tower Bridge, light up parliament, do what you like boys, as long as you wave the little black white green and red flag.

    He implied that Khan is doing it because he's a Muslim. He isn't. He does it because he's a Lefty and the Left don't want to annoy the Muslim vote.
    Well fair enough, I accept those two are different - but the functional output is the same.
    That would be the same London where dozens of Palestine lobby members have been arrested for hate crimes, so much for the free pass.

    12 the weekend before last an example.
    What we are seeing is the usual policy with regards to smaller demos these days - record and pick up the ones they want to arrest *later*. Except for especially egregious stuff (actual violence) which is dealt with on the spot.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,147
    edited February 26
    Taz said:
    A tribute to this country that so many people want to flee France for Britain.

    I have never felt more proud to be British than this.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,926
    Cookie said:

    It's not immediately apparent from the provinces what Lee Anderson has said which is wrong. The Palestine lobby appears to have a free pass in London - block Tower Bridge, light up parliament, do what you like boys, as long as you wave the little black white green and red flag.

    The MetPolice are simply not even handed when they police protest. Or they certainly give that impression.

    The Eco protesters also got a similar favourable approach from the Met.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/police-boss-blasts-unacceptable-behaviour-of-officers-filmed-skateboarding-and-dancing-at-extinction-rebellion-protests-in-london-a4121381.html
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,147
    edited February 26
    Leon said:

    I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating

    Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that

    However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI

    Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change

    Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom



    <0.01%
    Yann LeCun
    one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta
    (less likely than an asteroid)

    10%
    Vitalik Buterin
    Ethereum founder
    (Specifically means AI takeover)

    10%
    Geoff Hinton
    one of three godfathers of AI
    (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)

    14%
    Machine learning researchers
    (From 2022, median value is 5%)

    15%
    Lina Khan
    head of FTC

    10-20%
    Paul Christiano
    (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)

    10-25%
    Dario Amodei
    CEO of Anthropic

    20%
    Yoshua Bengio
    one of three godfathers of AI

    20-30%
    Elon Musk
    CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X

    5-50%
    Emmet Shear
    Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI

    30%
    AI Safety Researchers
    (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)

    33%
    Scott Alexander
    Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten

    35%
    Eli Lifland
    AI engineer
    (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)

    50%
    Holden Karnofsky
    Executive Director of Open Philanthropy

    10-90%
    Jan Leike
    alignment lead at OpenAI

    60%
    Zvi Mowshowitz
    AI researcher

    70%
    Daniel Kokotajlo
    OpenAI researcher & forecaster

    >80%
    Dan Hendrycks
    Head of Center for AI Safety

    >99%
    Eliezer Yudkowsky
    Founder of MIRI


    It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here

    Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago

    To be fair you never heard young people banging on about the dangers of what.three.words either when you were assuring us that would be technological game changer.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,455

    algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    It's not immediately apparent from the provinces what Lee Anderson has said which is wrong. The Palestine lobby appears to have a free pass in London - block Tower Bridge, light up parliament, do what you like boys, as long as you wave the little black white green and red flag.

    From this provincial point of view we would think that this is largely a matter where responsibility will devolve upon the Met and the Home Secretary. Does the mayor of London have direct law and order powers with regard to either strategy or operations?
    Both, but in certain areas.

    The reality is the Commissioner relies on both the support of the Home Secretary and Mayor, and as Boris Johnson and Sadiq Khan have shown, they have made a Commissioner resign when they publicly withdrew that support.
    https://www.london.gov.uk/programmes-strategies/mayors-office-policing-and-crime-mopac/about-mayors-office-policing-and-crime-mopac


    One of the Mayor’s key responsibilities is overseeing the work of the Metropolitan Police Service (MPS) – setting the priorities for policing and community safety in London, agreeing the policing budget and holding the Met Commissioner to account for delivering a professional, efficient and effective service to Londoners.

    The Mayor has appointed Sophie Linden as Deputy Mayor for Policing and Crime (DMPC) to oversee this vital work.

    At the heart of our work is the Mayor’s Police and Crime Plan – a statutory document that sets out the key priorities for the term ahead, how we will work to deliver them and how we will oversee delivery.
    For a smoking gun it would need to be shown that the Met have been told to go easy on particular demonstrators and illegalities (ie discriminate), and that the mayor is behind it.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,926

    Taz said:
    A tribute to this country that so many people want to flee France for Britain.

    I have never felt more proud to be British than this.
    Yes, it warms the cockles of the heart.

    We should see it as a vote of confidence in the UK that people see us as a bastion of freedom. Something to aspire to.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Cookie said:

    It's not immediately apparent from the provinces what Lee Anderson has said which is wrong. The Palestine lobby appears to have a free pass in London - block Tower Bridge, light up parliament, do what you like boys, as long as you wave the little black white green and red flag.

    Time to flee the provinces! It's poisoning your mind
  • Taz said:

    Taz said:
    A tribute to this country that so many people want to flee France for Britain.

    I have never felt more proud to be British than this.
    Yes, it warms the cockles of the heart.

    We should see it as a vote of confidence in the UK that people see us as a bastion of freedom. Something to aspire to.
    It's odd that so many Brexiteers aren't happy to bang on about this, people fleeing the EU for Brexit Britain.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,417
    I don't disagree with TSE often but I'd be very surprised to see Khan take legal action against Anderson. Political battles - even ones that descend into gutter slander - are best dealt with in the court of public opinion and at the ballot box. I suspect a majority of the public tend towards that kind of opinion too. Anderson has already paid a price for his words (though how high a price depends on whether he's allowed to return to the Tory fold before the election - if indeed he wants to).

    We also need to be wary of politicians suing each other over rhetoric, and I think most politicians get that, even when there's a solid case to be made that a particular statement was unjustified and defamatory.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,542
    @Leon re discussion of a few weeks ago - Zulu is on the TV again (Film4)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,772

    Leon said:

    I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating

    Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that

    However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI

    Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change

    Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom



    <0.01%
    Yann LeCun
    one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta
    (less likely than an asteroid)

    10%
    Vitalik Buterin
    Ethereum founder
    (Specifically means AI takeover)

    10%
    Geoff Hinton
    one of three godfathers of AI
    (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)

    14%
    Machine learning researchers
    (From 2022, median value is 5%)

    15%
    Lina Khan
    head of FTC

    10-20%
    Paul Christiano
    (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)

    10-25%
    Dario Amodei
    CEO of Anthropic

    20%
    Yoshua Bengio
    one of three godfathers of AI

    20-30%
    Elon Musk
    CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X

    5-50%
    Emmet Shear
    Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI

    30%
    AI Safety Researchers
    (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)

    33%
    Scott Alexander
    Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten

    35%
    Eli Lifland
    AI engineer
    (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)

    50%
    Holden Karnofsky
    Executive Director of Open Philanthropy

    10-90%
    Jan Leike
    alignment lead at OpenAI

    60%
    Zvi Mowshowitz
    AI researcher

    70%
    Daniel Kokotajlo
    OpenAI researcher & forecaster

    >80%
    Dan Hendrycks
    Head of Center for AI Safety

    >99%
    Eliezer Yudkowsky
    Founder of MIRI


    It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here

    Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago

    To be fair you never heard young people banging on about the dangers of what.three.words either when you were assuring that would be technological game changer.
    The threat from AI comes not from AI, but on idiots trusting AI as some form of brilliant soothsayer and driving off a cliff because the computer tells them to.
  • Selebian said:

    Be nice to think Susan Hall was doing this because she finds Anderson's comments repugnant, wouldn't it? Would be really nice. For other Tories, and many of them before the Johnsonian purge, I could have believed it too...

    Everyone has a "up with this I will not put" line in scenarios like this. It takes some people more or less time to reach it, but I'm not sure there's massive virtue either way.

    If Susan Hall (who has spent years facing Khan in City Hall) has reached her's, good for her. She's still an abusrd candidate and gives every indication that she would be a rotten mayor, but good for her.
  • I don't disagree with TSE often but I'd be very surprised to see Khan take legal action against Anderson. Political battles - even ones that descend into gutter slander - are best dealt with in the court of public opinion and at the ballot box. I suspect a majority of the public tend towards that kind of opinion too. Anderson has already paid a price for his words (though how high a price depends on whether he's allowed to return to the Tory fold before the election - if indeed he wants to).

    We also need to be wary of politicians suing each other over rhetoric, and I think most politicians get that, even when there's a solid case to be made that a particular statement was unjustified and defamatory.

    I think Anderson is doubling down which is where it could get rather messy.

    I think one Doctor managed to get a grovelling apology out of Lee Anderson a few months (and some money donated to a lefty cause IIRC)
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 2,747

    I don't disagree with TSE often but I'd be very surprised to see Khan take legal action against Anderson. Political battles - even ones that descend into gutter slander - are best dealt with in the court of public opinion and at the ballot box. I suspect a majority of the public tend towards that kind of opinion too. Anderson has already paid a price for his words (though how high a price depends on whether he's allowed to return to the Tory fold before the election - if indeed he wants to).

    We also need to be wary of politicians suing each other over rhetoric, and I think most politicians get that, even when there's a solid case to be made that a particular statement was unjustified and defamatory.

    He hasn't really paid a high price. He's guaranteed that he'll have a high paying job working a couple of hours a week on GB News for the next few years at least.
  • Selebian said:

    Be nice to think Susan Hall was doing this because she finds Anderson's comments repugnant, wouldn't it? Would be really nice. For other Tories, and many of them before the Johnsonian purge, I could have believed it too...

    Everyone has a "up with this I will not put" line in scenarios like this. It takes some people more or less time to reach it, but I'm not sure there's massive virtue either way.

    If Susan Hall (who has spent years facing Khan in City Hall) has reached her's, good for her. She's still an abusrd candidate and gives every indication that she would be a rotten mayor, but good for her.
    I think with Ms Hall, the Chief Rabbi repudiated her words publicly when she said Jews in London don't feel safe under Khan and offered to help her see the error of her ways.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,417
    CatMan said:

    I don't disagree with TSE often but I'd be very surprised to see Khan take legal action against Anderson. Political battles - even ones that descend into gutter slander - are best dealt with in the court of public opinion and at the ballot box. I suspect a majority of the public tend towards that kind of opinion too. Anderson has already paid a price for his words (though how high a price depends on whether he's allowed to return to the Tory fold before the election - if indeed he wants to).

    We also need to be wary of politicians suing each other over rhetoric, and I think most politicians get that, even when there's a solid case to be made that a particular statement was unjustified and defamatory.

    He hasn't really paid a high price. He's guaranteed that he'll have a high paying job working a couple of hours a week on GB News for the next few years at least.
    That assumes there'll be a GB for the next few years. I don't think that can be taken for granted.

    But either way, financial rewards are not everything. Most MPs don't go into it for the money, even if for many they get a pay rise on election (plus benefits). Anderson might well not have been re-elected anyway, though Ashfield is an odd place so you never know, but refusing an MP the right to stand again is a pretty hefty political sanction all the same. If that sanction applies.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,417

    I don't disagree with TSE often but I'd be very surprised to see Khan take legal action against Anderson. Political battles - even ones that descend into gutter slander - are best dealt with in the court of public opinion and at the ballot box. I suspect a majority of the public tend towards that kind of opinion too. Anderson has already paid a price for his words (though how high a price depends on whether he's allowed to return to the Tory fold before the election - if indeed he wants to).

    We also need to be wary of politicians suing each other over rhetoric, and I think most politicians get that, even when there's a solid case to be made that a particular statement was unjustified and defamatory.

    I think Anderson is doubling down which is where it could get rather messy.

    I think one Doctor managed to get a grovelling apology out of Lee Anderson a few months (and some money donated to a lefty cause IIRC)
    For a member of Joe Public to go after an MP is one thing; for another politician to do it is quite another. "They're always calling each other names / lying / bending the truth" etc. are popular opinions. A court case could easily get expensive, messy and unpredictable. Even if Khan (here) won, who's to say whether it'd be worth it, either financially or politically?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,310
    tlg86 said:
    I'm looking through my bingo card of fairly irrelevant details and can't work out whether it's that the perpetrator is a) not white; b) transgender or c) immigrant. Or do I get to stamp all three?

    Or am I missing something relevant?
  • I don't disagree with TSE often but I'd be very surprised to see Khan take legal action against Anderson. Political battles - even ones that descend into gutter slander - are best dealt with in the court of public opinion and at the ballot box. I suspect a majority of the public tend towards that kind of opinion too. Anderson has already paid a price for his words (though how high a price depends on whether he's allowed to return to the Tory fold before the election - if indeed he wants to).

    We also need to be wary of politicians suing each other over rhetoric, and I think most politicians get that, even when there's a solid case to be made that a particular statement was unjustified and defamatory.

    I think Anderson is doubling down which is where it could get rather messy.

    I think one Doctor managed to get a grovelling apology out of Lee Anderson a few months (and some money donated to a lefty cause IIRC)
    For a member of Joe Public to go after an MP is one thing; for another politician to do it is quite another. "They're always calling each other names / lying / bending the truth" etc. are popular opinions. A court case could easily get expensive, messy and unpredictable. Even if Khan (here) won, who's to say whether it'd be worth it, either financially or politically?
    Legal action doesn't mean court action.

    I was thinking of something like this.

    A vice-chairman of the Conservative party has apologised to Jeremy Corbyn and will make a “substantial” donation to charity for a tweet he made about the Labour leader’s links to cold war spies.

    The climbdown by Mansfield MP Ben Bradley raises questions as to whether other Tory MPs who made similar claims about Corbyn will also issue apologies.

    Bradley, who is the vice-chair for Tory youth, was threatened with legal action after making unfounded claims that the Labour leader “sold British secrets to communist spies”.

    It followed claims about Corbyn’s contact with a Czech intelligence agent, Ján Sarkocy, in the 1980s, many of which have been discredited. Bradley will make a donation to a charity and a food bank in his constituency, and meet Corbyn’s legal costs, Labour said. It is believed the donation is a five-figure sum.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/25/jeremy-corbyn-spies-communist-czech-cold-war-ben-bradley
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,417
    Leon said:

    I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating

    Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that

    However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI

    Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change

    Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom



    <0.01%
    Yann LeCun
    one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta
    (less likely than an asteroid)

    10%
    Vitalik Buterin
    Ethereum founder
    (Specifically means AI takeover)

    10%
    Geoff Hinton
    one of three godfathers of AI
    (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)

    14%
    Machine learning researchers
    (From 2022, median value is 5%)

    15%
    Lina Khan
    head of FTC

    10-20%
    Paul Christiano
    (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)

    10-25%
    Dario Amodei
    CEO of Anthropic

    20%
    Yoshua Bengio
    one of three godfathers of AI

    20-30%
    Elon Musk
    CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X

    5-50%
    Emmet Shear
    Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI

    30%
    AI Safety Researchers
    (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)

    33%
    Scott Alexander
    Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten

    35%
    Eli Lifland
    AI engineer
    (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)

    50%
    Holden Karnofsky
    Executive Director of Open Philanthropy

    10-90%
    Jan Leike
    alignment lead at OpenAI

    60%
    Zvi Mowshowitz
    AI researcher

    70%
    Daniel Kokotajlo
    OpenAI researcher & forecaster

    >80%
    Dan Hendrycks
    Head of Center for AI Safety

    >99%
    Eliezer Yudkowsky
    Founder of MIRI


    It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here

    Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago

    I'd be less worried about what AI can do for itself and more worried about what the likes of Putin can do with it, in league with the likes of Musk.

    It will be impossible to run a democracy if we cannot have any kind of common understanding of facts. Or, put another way, if you credibly control the facts, you control everything else.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,464
    edited February 26

    I don't disagree with TSE often but I'd be very surprised to see Khan take legal action against Anderson. Political battles - even ones that descend into gutter slander - are best dealt with in the court of public opinion and at the ballot box. I suspect a majority of the public tend towards that kind of opinion too. Anderson has already paid a price for his words (though how high a price depends on whether he's allowed to return to the Tory fold before the election - if indeed he wants to).

    We also need to be wary of politicians suing each other over rhetoric, and I think most politicians get that, even when there's a solid case to be made that a particular statement was unjustified and defamatory.

    I think Anderson is doubling down which is where it could get rather messy.

    I think one Doctor managed to get a grovelling apology out of Lee Anderson a few months (and some money donated to a lefty cause IIRC)
    Indeed, though a doctors' strike fund is perhaps not an inherently lefty cause!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67329731
  • Carnyx said:

    I don't disagree with TSE often but I'd be very surprised to see Khan take legal action against Anderson. Political battles - even ones that descend into gutter slander - are best dealt with in the court of public opinion and at the ballot box. I suspect a majority of the public tend towards that kind of opinion too. Anderson has already paid a price for his words (though how high a price depends on whether he's allowed to return to the Tory fold before the election - if indeed he wants to).

    We also need to be wary of politicians suing each other over rhetoric, and I think most politicians get that, even when there's a solid case to be made that a particular statement was unjustified and defamatory.

    I think Anderson is doubling down which is where it could get rather messy.

    I think one Doctor managed to get a grovelling apology out of Lee Anderson a few months (and some money donated to a lefty cause IIRC)
    Indeed, though a doctors' strike fund is perhaps not an inherently lefty cause!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67329731
    Thanks, it's why I added the IIRC, I wasn't quite sure.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,037
    Taz said:

    Taz said:
    A tribute to this country that so many people want to flee France for Britain.

    I have never felt more proud to be British than this.
    Yes, it warms the cockles of the heart.

    We should see it as a vote of confidence in the UK that people see us as a bastion of freedom. Something to aspire to.
    As I’ve pointed out before

    1) numerous international bodies have said the conditions in France for the refugees are intolerable.
    2) a country that can’t treat refugees right is a failed state
    3) France has oil. And nuclear weapons ambitions.
    4) We all know what happens to failed states with oil and nuclear weapons ambitions, don’t we, Children?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,266
    Leon said:

    I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating

    Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that

    However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI

    Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change

    Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom



    <0.01%
    Yann LeCun
    one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta
    (less likely than an asteroid)

    10%
    Vitalik Buterin
    Ethereum founder
    (Specifically means AI takeover)

    10%
    Geoff Hinton
    one of three godfathers of AI
    (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)

    14%
    Machine learning researchers
    (From 2022, median value is 5%)

    15%
    Lina Khan
    head of FTC

    10-20%
    Paul Christiano
    (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)

    10-25%
    Dario Amodei
    CEO of Anthropic

    20%
    Yoshua Bengio
    one of three godfathers of AI

    20-30%
    Elon Musk
    CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X

    5-50%
    Emmet Shear
    Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI

    30%
    AI Safety Researchers
    (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)

    33%
    Scott Alexander
    Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten

    35%
    Eli Lifland
    AI engineer
    (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)

    50%
    Holden Karnofsky
    Executive Director of Open Philanthropy

    10-90%
    Jan Leike
    alignment lead at OpenAI

    60%
    Zvi Mowshowitz
    AI researcher

    70%
    Daniel Kokotajlo
    OpenAI researcher & forecaster

    >80%
    Dan Hendrycks
    Head of Center for AI Safety

    >99%
    Eliezer Yudkowsky
    Founder of MIRI


    It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here

    Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago

    I doubt chatbots will be able to enslave us. What might happen is that some fool - thinking this stuff is cleverer than it actually is - puts AI into, say, armed drones, and they then go off and do something unexpectedly nasty. I can it imagine that happening with someone who got sucked in with the hype and erroneously believed he had taught AI the mystery of ethical reasoning or whatever.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,877
    The Tories will be 3rd in Ashfield at the GE. Possibly 4th if it goes really badly for them.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,037

    Leon said:

    I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating

    Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that

    However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI

    Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change

    Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom



    <0.01%
    Yann LeCun
    one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta
    (less likely than an asteroid)

    10%
    Vitalik Buterin
    Ethereum founder
    (Specifically means AI takeover)

    10%
    Geoff Hinton
    one of three godfathers of AI
    (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)

    14%
    Machine learning researchers
    (From 2022, median value is 5%)

    15%
    Lina Khan
    head of FTC

    10-20%
    Paul Christiano
    (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)

    10-25%
    Dario Amodei
    CEO of Anthropic

    20%
    Yoshua Bengio
    one of three godfathers of AI

    20-30%
    Elon Musk
    CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X

    5-50%
    Emmet Shear
    Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI

    30%
    AI Safety Researchers
    (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)

    33%
    Scott Alexander
    Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten

    35%
    Eli Lifland
    AI engineer
    (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)

    50%
    Holden Karnofsky
    Executive Director of Open Philanthropy

    10-90%
    Jan Leike
    alignment lead at OpenAI

    60%
    Zvi Mowshowitz
    AI researcher

    70%
    Daniel Kokotajlo
    OpenAI researcher & forecaster

    >80%
    Dan Hendrycks
    Head of Center for AI Safety

    >99%
    Eliezer Yudkowsky
    Founder of MIRI


    It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here

    Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago

    To be fair you never heard young people banging on about the dangers of what.three.words either when you were assuring that would be technological game changer.
    The threat from AI comes not from AI, but on idiots trusting AI as some form of brilliant soothsayer and driving off a cliff because the computer tells them to.
    That sounds like the kind of thing that could happen if you ask the AI for the three words location of something and it lies and gives you a location 50 metres beyond the edge of Dover Cliffs….
  • Taz said:

    Taz said:
    A tribute to this country that so many people want to flee France for Britain.

    I have never felt more proud to be British than this.
    Yes, it warms the cockles of the heart.

    We should see it as a vote of confidence in the UK that people see us as a bastion of freedom. Something to aspire to.
    As I’ve pointed out before

    1) numerous international bodies have said the conditions in France for the refugees are intolerable.
    2) a country that can’t treat refugees right is a failed state
    3) France has oil. And nuclear weapons ambitions.
    4) We all know what happens to failed states with oil and nuclear weapons ambitions, don’t we, Children?
    Biggest mistake the allies made was not to split France after WWII like they did with Germany.

    West and South France for the UK.

    North France for America.

    East France for Canada.

    Or as part of the condition for liberating France making them honour the Treaty of Troyes.

    Churchill was such a fool, deservedly lost the election for that mistake.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,464

    Carnyx said:

    I don't disagree with TSE often but I'd be very surprised to see Khan take legal action against Anderson. Political battles - even ones that descend into gutter slander - are best dealt with in the court of public opinion and at the ballot box. I suspect a majority of the public tend towards that kind of opinion too. Anderson has already paid a price for his words (though how high a price depends on whether he's allowed to return to the Tory fold before the election - if indeed he wants to).

    We also need to be wary of politicians suing each other over rhetoric, and I think most politicians get that, even when there's a solid case to be made that a particular statement was unjustified and defamatory.

    I think Anderson is doubling down which is where it could get rather messy.

    I think one Doctor managed to get a grovelling apology out of Lee Anderson a few months (and some money donated to a lefty cause IIRC)
    Indeed, though a doctors' strike fund is perhaps not an inherently lefty cause!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67329731
    Thanks, it's why I added the IIRC, I wasn't quite sure.
    Quite. Some Tories would call the BMA a bunch of commies deserving what the Tolpuddle lot got, but I didn't think you meant that!
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,417

    I don't disagree with TSE often but I'd be very surprised to see Khan take legal action against Anderson. Political battles - even ones that descend into gutter slander - are best dealt with in the court of public opinion and at the ballot box. I suspect a majority of the public tend towards that kind of opinion too. Anderson has already paid a price for his words (though how high a price depends on whether he's allowed to return to the Tory fold before the election - if indeed he wants to).

    We also need to be wary of politicians suing each other over rhetoric, and I think most politicians get that, even when there's a solid case to be made that a particular statement was unjustified and defamatory.

    I think Anderson is doubling down which is where it could get rather messy.

    I think one Doctor managed to get a grovelling apology out of Lee Anderson a few months (and some money donated to a lefty cause IIRC)
    For a member of Joe Public to go after an MP is one thing; for another politician to do it is quite another. "They're always calling each other names / lying / bending the truth" etc. are popular opinions. A court case could easily get expensive, messy and unpredictable. Even if Khan (here) won, who's to say whether it'd be worth it, either financially or politically?
    Legal action doesn't mean court action.

    I was thinking of something like this.

    A vice-chairman of the Conservative party has apologised to Jeremy Corbyn and will make a “substantial” donation to charity for a tweet he made about the Labour leader’s links to cold war spies.

    The climbdown by Mansfield MP Ben Bradley raises questions as to whether other Tory MPs who made similar claims about Corbyn will also issue apologies.

    Bradley, who is the vice-chair for Tory youth, was threatened with legal action after making unfounded claims that the Labour leader “sold British secrets to communist spies”.

    It followed claims about Corbyn’s contact with a Czech intelligence agent, Ján Sarkocy, in the 1980s, many of which have been discredited. Bradley will make a donation to a charity and a food bank in his constituency, and meet Corbyn’s legal costs, Labour said. It is believed the donation is a five-figure sum.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/25/jeremy-corbyn-spies-communist-czech-cold-war-ben-bradley
    I guess it's all a question of bluff. In Bradley's case, it was a flat-out lie; there was no way he could win that and the threat of being sued was credible. With Anderson, he can claim that he was not speaking a literal truth but making a political argument on the basis of perception and that the workings of democracy require that people, whether the public or other politicians, to be able to make those kind of arguments freely. I don't think the two are equivalent.
  • Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    I don't disagree with TSE often but I'd be very surprised to see Khan take legal action against Anderson. Political battles - even ones that descend into gutter slander - are best dealt with in the court of public opinion and at the ballot box. I suspect a majority of the public tend towards that kind of opinion too. Anderson has already paid a price for his words (though how high a price depends on whether he's allowed to return to the Tory fold before the election - if indeed he wants to).

    We also need to be wary of politicians suing each other over rhetoric, and I think most politicians get that, even when there's a solid case to be made that a particular statement was unjustified and defamatory.

    I think Anderson is doubling down which is where it could get rather messy.

    I think one Doctor managed to get a grovelling apology out of Lee Anderson a few months (and some money donated to a lefty cause IIRC)
    Indeed, though a doctors' strike fund is perhaps not an inherently lefty cause!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67329731
    Thanks, it's why I added the IIRC, I wasn't quite sure.
    Quite. Some Tories would call the BMA a bunch of commies deserving what the Tolpuddle lot got, but I didn't think you meant that!
    The BMA opposed the creation of the NHS (or at least threatened to boycott it).

    Like the unions in Bristol supporting racism on the buses, and Arthur Scargill, I've never been keen on trade unions.
  • I'll be back later, I am off to report a hate crime.

    Anyone chronicling this country’s fate must look at the disproportionate and disproportionately malign influence of upper-class Tories from the elite public schools.

    Seriously how is this kind of bigotry allowed?

    Can we say this about plebs from comprehensives?

    Why can people be rude about people whose parents wanted the best for them?

    https://nickcohen.substack.com/p/can-nothing-halt-the-uks-decline?r=333vp&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&open=false
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,926

    Taz said:

    Taz said:
    A tribute to this country that so many people want to flee France for Britain.

    I have never felt more proud to be British than this.
    Yes, it warms the cockles of the heart.

    We should see it as a vote of confidence in the UK that people see us as a bastion of freedom. Something to aspire to.
    It's odd that so many Brexiteers aren't happy to bang on about this, people fleeing the EU for Brexit Britain.
    They’re too busy enjoying their new found freedoms.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,169
    Leon said:

    I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating

    Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that

    However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI

    Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change

    Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom



    <0.01%
    Yann LeCun
    one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta
    (less likely than an asteroid)

    10%
    Vitalik Buterin
    Ethereum founder
    (Specifically means AI takeover)

    10%
    Geoff Hinton
    one of three godfathers of AI
    (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)

    14%
    Machine learning researchers
    (From 2022, median value is 5%)

    15%
    Lina Khan
    head of FTC

    10-20%
    Paul Christiano
    (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)

    10-25%
    Dario Amodei
    CEO of Anthropic

    20%
    Yoshua Bengio
    one of three godfathers of AI

    20-30%
    Elon Musk
    CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X

    5-50%
    Emmet Shear
    Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI

    30%
    AI Safety Researchers
    (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)

    33%
    Scott Alexander
    Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten

    35%
    Eli Lifland
    AI engineer
    (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)

    50%
    Holden Karnofsky
    Executive Director of Open Philanthropy

    10-90%
    Jan Leike
    alignment lead at OpenAI

    60%
    Zvi Mowshowitz
    AI researcher

    70%
    Daniel Kokotajlo
    OpenAI researcher & forecaster

    >80%
    Dan Hendrycks
    Head of Center for AI Safety

    >99%
    Eliezer Yudkowsky
    Founder of MIRI


    It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here

    Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago

    Your posts about AI bore me sh1tless. Even if I get terminated by a robot sent by Skynet inside the next 18 months who metallically laughs at me whilst pacing out "Leon was right, you puny human" in a cybernetic Austrian accent I'll still draw my last dying breath recalling your warnings with tedium.

    HOWEVER, you are right on that. Many of the youth have disconnected too much critical thinking for being fed what's on their social media thread instead, and that is a problem since this may affect them as much as anything else, like you say.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,464

    Leon said:

    I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating

    Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that

    However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI

    Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change

    Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom



    <0.01%
    Yann LeCun
    one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta
    (less likely than an asteroid)

    10%
    Vitalik Buterin
    Ethereum founder
    (Specifically means AI takeover)

    10%
    Geoff Hinton
    one of three godfathers of AI
    (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)

    14%
    Machine learning researchers
    (From 2022, median value is 5%)

    15%
    Lina Khan
    head of FTC

    10-20%
    Paul Christiano
    (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)

    10-25%
    Dario Amodei
    CEO of Anthropic

    20%
    Yoshua Bengio
    one of three godfathers of AI

    20-30%
    Elon Musk
    CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X

    5-50%
    Emmet Shear
    Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI

    30%
    AI Safety Researchers
    (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)

    33%
    Scott Alexander
    Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten

    35%
    Eli Lifland
    AI engineer
    (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)

    50%
    Holden Karnofsky
    Executive Director of Open Philanthropy

    10-90%
    Jan Leike
    alignment lead at OpenAI

    60%
    Zvi Mowshowitz
    AI researcher

    70%
    Daniel Kokotajlo
    OpenAI researcher & forecaster

    >80%
    Dan Hendrycks
    Head of Center for AI Safety

    >99%
    Eliezer Yudkowsky
    Founder of MIRI


    It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here

    Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago

    To be fair you never heard young people banging on about the dangers of what.three.words either when you were assuring that would be technological game changer.
    The threat from AI comes not from AI, but on idiots trusting AI as some form of brilliant soothsayer and driving off a cliff because the computer tells them to.
    That sounds like the kind of thing that could happen if you ask the AI for the three words location of something and it lies and gives you a location 50 metres beyond the edge of Dover Cliffs….
    Trying to improve the intellectual level of the population through the medium of Darwin Awards?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,773
    Yes we KHAN!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,169

    Taz said:

    Taz said:
    A tribute to this country that so many people want to flee France for Britain.

    I have never felt more proud to be British than this.
    Yes, it warms the cockles of the heart.

    We should see it as a vote of confidence in the UK that people see us as a bastion of freedom. Something to aspire to.
    As I’ve pointed out before

    1) numerous international bodies have said the conditions in France for the refugees are intolerable.
    2) a country that can’t treat refugees right is a failed state
    3) France has oil. And nuclear weapons ambitions.
    4) We all know what happens to failed states with oil and nuclear weapons ambitions, don’t we, Children?
    Biggest mistake the allies made was not to split France after WWII like they did with Germany.

    West and South France for the UK.

    North France for America.

    East France for Canada.

    Or as part of the condition for liberating France making them honour the Treaty of Troyes.

    Churchill was such a fool, deservedly lost the election for that mistake.
    To be fair, we already took the bit of France in Canada.

    And it's caused us, and Canada, no end of problems since.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,464
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:
    A tribute to this country that so many people want to flee France for Britain.

    I have never felt more proud to be British than this.
    Yes, it warms the cockles of the heart.

    We should see it as a vote of confidence in the UK that people see us as a bastion of freedom. Something to aspire to.
    It's odd that so many Brexiteers aren't happy to bang on about this, people fleeing the EU for Brexit Britain.
    They’re too busy enjoying their new found freedoms.
    Yes, they've all become immigrants (like a colleague at uni who was a very keen Brexiter and anti-indyref, them promptly departed to NZ, and not for work reasons).
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,169
    Pulpstar said:

    The Tories will be 3rd in Ashfield at the GE. Possibly 4th if it goes really badly for them.

    The Tories will underpoll their latent support, IMHO.

    The voting will be about taking no risks whatsoever on guaranteeing the Big Brother eviction.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,037
    kyf_100 said:

    kjh said:

    @Leon re discussion of a few weeks ago - Zulu is on the TV again (Film4)

    Repeats. Thousands of 'em...
    Shocking post. Do it right

    image
  • isamisam Posts: 40,848
    Selebian said:

    tlg86 said:
    I'm looking through my bingo card of fairly irrelevant details and can't work out whether it's that the perpetrator is a) not white; b) transgender or c) immigrant. Or do I get to stamp all three?

    Or am I missing something relevant?
    FULL HOUSE!!!
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,640
    I don’t see Anderson apologizing so hard to see how he gets the Tory Whip back . In that case you’d think why not just defect to Reform.

    The problem for the Tories is this drama highlights the different factions amongst the party .
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,464
    edited February 26
    Selebian said:

    tlg86 said:
    I'm looking through my bingo card of fairly irrelevant details and can't work out whether it's that the perpetrator is a) not white; b) transgender or c) immigrant. Or do I get to stamp all three?

    Or am I missing something relevant?
    ...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,037
    isam said:

    Selebian said:

    tlg86 said:
    I'm looking through my bingo card of fairly irrelevant details and can't work out whether it's that the perpetrator is a) not white; b) transgender or c) immigrant. Or do I get to stamp all three?

    Or am I missing something relevant?
    FULL HOUSE!!!
    You mean we have a Trans Gay Illegal Immigrant Alien AI?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,773

    Leon said:

    I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating

    Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that

    However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI

    Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change

    Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom



    <0.01%
    Yann LeCun
    one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta
    (less likely than an asteroid)

    10%
    Vitalik Buterin
    Ethereum founder
    (Specifically means AI takeover)

    10%
    Geoff Hinton
    one of three godfathers of AI
    (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)

    14%
    Machine learning researchers
    (From 2022, median value is 5%)

    15%
    Lina Khan
    head of FTC

    10-20%
    Paul Christiano
    (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)

    10-25%
    Dario Amodei
    CEO of Anthropic

    20%
    Yoshua Bengio
    one of three godfathers of AI

    20-30%
    Elon Musk
    CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X

    5-50%
    Emmet Shear
    Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI

    30%
    AI Safety Researchers
    (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)

    33%
    Scott Alexander
    Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten

    35%
    Eli Lifland
    AI engineer
    (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)

    50%
    Holden Karnofsky
    Executive Director of Open Philanthropy

    10-90%
    Jan Leike
    alignment lead at OpenAI

    60%
    Zvi Mowshowitz
    AI researcher

    70%
    Daniel Kokotajlo
    OpenAI researcher & forecaster

    >80%
    Dan Hendrycks
    Head of Center for AI Safety

    >99%
    Eliezer Yudkowsky
    Founder of MIRI


    It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here

    Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago

    To be fair you never heard young people banging on about the dangers of what.three.words either when you were assuring us that would be technological game changer.
    I'm old enough to remember Leon repeatedly assuring us, five years ago, that China would be the biggest economy in the world in five years and any PBer who questioned his forecast was an idiot.

    (I can also remember his more his more recent projection that Liz Truss would "surprise on the upside", but it would be ungentlemanly of me to salt the wound.)
  • Speaker Hoyle retracts his offer of a debate for the SNP and they are really angry

    https://news.sky.com/story/speaker-sir-lindsay-hoyle-retracts-offer-to-snp-for-emergency-ceasefire-debate-13081621
  • With Hungary's grudging yes, Sweden now joins Finland in Nato. The length of the Russia-Nato border has jumped fourfold since Putin's invasion. Yet people glibly say that Putin is winning. Strategically he's still losing.

    https://twitter.com/EdwardGLuce/status/1762153983957680374
  • The path is now very clear for 30p Lee. Defect to UFUK. Noisily. Denouncing the Tories and everything they don't stand for. Foam on about "proper British values" which are anything but. Become the totem for the angry gammonite WWC. Lead the UFUK block in the Commons which will be bigger than the LibDem block as he shows the way for other angry doomed Tories. With a GBeebies show as a pulpit every week. Winning his seat at the GE.

    Or, don't. Offer up an insincere apology and get the Tory whip back, only to get demolished at the election.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,037

    With Hungary's grudging yes, Sweden now joins Finland in Nato. The length of the Russia-Nato border has jumped fourfold since Putin's invasion. Yet people glibly say that Putin is winning. Strategically he's still losing.

    https://twitter.com/EdwardGLuce/status/1762153983957680374

    Putin wins NATO Salesman Of The Year. Second year running, as well. We should do better than a set of steak knife’s this year.

    What about a voucher for safety windows for the whole Kremlin?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,169

    With Hungary's grudging yes, Sweden now joins Finland in Nato. The length of the Russia-Nato border has jumped fourfold since Putin's invasion. Yet people glibly say that Putin is winning. Strategically he's still losing.

    https://twitter.com/EdwardGLuce/status/1762153983957680374

    So Boris was right when he said to Putin that going into his neighbouring states meant more NATO, not less?

    Boris was and is an ethically and morally bankrupt individual but for some reason actually became a half-decent leader on this particular issue.

    Maybe it was Churchill cosplay and stopped clocks. Or maybe people are complex.
  • Speaker Hoyle retracts his offer of a debate for the SNP and they are really angry

    https://news.sky.com/story/speaker-sir-lindsay-hoyle-retracts-offer-to-snp-for-emergency-ceasefire-debate-13081621

    PG Wodehouse's remark about rays of sunshine applies, methinks.
  • Lord Rothschild dies
  • Selebian said:

    tlg86 said:
    I'm looking through my bingo card of fairly irrelevant details and can't work out whether it's that the perpetrator is a) not white; b) transgender or c) immigrant. Or do I get to stamp all three?

    Or am I missing something relevant?
    There was a line in Morse that murder is stupid people doing stupid things to each other. You left out stupid.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,057
    edited February 26

    Leon said:

    I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating

    Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that

    However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI

    Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change

    Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom



    <0.01%
    Yann LeCun
    one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta
    (less likely than an asteroid)

    10%
    Vitalik Buterin
    Ethereum founder
    (Specifically means AI takeover)

    10%
    Geoff Hinton
    one of three godfathers of AI
    (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)

    14%
    Machine learning researchers
    (From 2022, median value is 5%)

    15%
    Lina Khan
    head of FTC

    10-20%
    Paul Christiano
    (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)

    10-25%
    Dario Amodei
    CEO of Anthropic

    20%
    Yoshua Bengio
    one of three godfathers of AI

    20-30%
    Elon Musk
    CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X

    5-50%
    Emmet Shear
    Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI

    30%
    AI Safety Researchers
    (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)

    33%
    Scott Alexander
    Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten

    35%
    Eli Lifland
    AI engineer
    (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)

    50%
    Holden Karnofsky
    Executive Director of Open Philanthropy

    10-90%
    Jan Leike
    alignment lead at OpenAI

    60%
    Zvi Mowshowitz
    AI researcher

    70%
    Daniel Kokotajlo
    OpenAI researcher & forecaster

    >80%
    Dan Hendrycks
    Head of Center for AI Safety

    >99%
    Eliezer Yudkowsky
    Founder of MIRI


    It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here

    Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago

    I'd be less worried about what AI can do for itself and more worried about what the likes of Putin can do with it, in league with the likes of Musk.

    It will be impossible to run a democracy if we cannot have any kind of common understanding of facts. Or, put another way, if you credibly control the facts, you control everything else.
    How do you suppose the doom will come about? Step back from Watching Terminator films.

    "Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom"

    Can we not just flick the power off and on again?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,454

    Leon said:

    I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating

    Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that

    However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI

    Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change

    Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom



    <0.01%
    Yann LeCun
    one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta
    (less likely than an asteroid)

    10%
    Vitalik Buterin
    Ethereum founder
    (Specifically means AI takeover)

    10%
    Geoff Hinton
    one of three godfathers of AI
    (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)

    14%
    Machine learning researchers
    (From 2022, median value is 5%)

    15%
    Lina Khan
    head of FTC

    10-20%
    Paul Christiano
    (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)

    10-25%
    Dario Amodei
    CEO of Anthropic

    20%
    Yoshua Bengio
    one of three godfathers of AI

    20-30%
    Elon Musk
    CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X

    5-50%
    Emmet Shear
    Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI

    30%
    AI Safety Researchers
    (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)

    33%
    Scott Alexander
    Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten

    35%
    Eli Lifland
    AI engineer
    (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)

    50%
    Holden Karnofsky
    Executive Director of Open Philanthropy

    10-90%
    Jan Leike
    alignment lead at OpenAI

    60%
    Zvi Mowshowitz
    AI researcher

    70%
    Daniel Kokotajlo
    OpenAI researcher & forecaster

    >80%
    Dan Hendrycks
    Head of Center for AI Safety

    >99%
    Eliezer Yudkowsky
    Founder of MIRI


    It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here

    Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago

    To be fair you never heard young people banging on about the dangers of what.three.words either when you were assuring us that would be technological game changer.
    I'm old enough to remember Leon repeatedly assuring us, five years ago, that China would be the biggest economy in the world in five years and any PBer who questioned his forecast was an idiot.

    (I can also remember his more his more recent projection that Liz Truss would "surprise on the upside", but it would be ungentlemanly of me to salt the wound.)
    China has the world’s largest economy by PPP - and has done for almost a decade. The Russo-Ukraine war teaches us that GDP by PPP is the best measure of national strength



  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,417

    With Hungary's grudging yes, Sweden now joins Finland in Nato. The length of the Russia-Nato border has jumped fourfold since Putin's invasion. Yet people glibly say that Putin is winning. Strategically he's still losing.

    https://twitter.com/EdwardGLuce/status/1762153983957680374

    So Boris was right when he said to Putin that going into his neighbouring states meant more NATO, not less?

    Boris was and is an ethically and morally bankrupt individual but for some reason actually became a half-decent leader on this particular issue.

    Maybe it was Churchill cosplay and stopped clocks. Or maybe people are complex.
    Part Chuchill cosplay; part Johnson's natural laziness. I imagine on this issue, he got good advice from the Foreign Office, Defence and MI6, and saw the opportunity to play his hero. He might even believe in it, inasfar as he believes in anything beyond himself.

    He's clearly not thought it through fully though, or considers it secondary, otherwise he wouldn't be palling up with Trump and the Republicans who are doing all they can to let Russia win.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,793

    Can we not just flick the power off and on again?

    Not if we are all in The Matrix...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,145
    edited February 26

    The path is now very clear for 30p Lee. Defect to UFUK. Noisily. Denouncing the Tories and everything they don't stand for. Foam on about "proper British values" which are anything but. Become the totem for the angry gammonite WWC. Lead the UFUK block in the Commons which will be bigger than the LibDem block as he shows the way for other angry doomed Tories. With a GBeebies show as a pulpit every week. Winning his seat at the GE.

    Or, don't. Offer up an insincere apology and get the Tory whip back, only to get demolished at the election.

    Didn't Tice offer him £400,000 to join ?

    The rancour in politics is hard to witness and it is only getting worse

    I did suggest yesterday that post GE the right may come together probably taking over the conservative party

    Nothing in the last few days has done anything to change my view

    Mind you Starmer has his own issues with a Savanta poll just now saying that 40% think he has an antisemitic problem in his party

    https://twitter.com/journoamrogers/status/1762148517512982641?t=CIexLGiVib0gDeCTkWZ-2g&s=19


    NB - On the Deltapoll Reform are on 10% (+3)
  • With Hungary's grudging yes, Sweden now joins Finland in Nato. The length of the Russia-Nato border has jumped fourfold since Putin's invasion. Yet people glibly say that Putin is winning. Strategically he's still losing.

    https://twitter.com/EdwardGLuce/status/1762153983957680374

    So Boris was right when he said to Putin that going into his neighbouring states meant more NATO, not less?

    Boris was and is an ethically and morally bankrupt individual but for some reason actually became a half-decent leader on this particular issue.

    Maybe it was Churchill cosplay and stopped clocks. Or maybe people are complex.
    The thing that cracks me up is the left wing criticism that the Tories are in the pockets of Russia.

    My word the Russians got a shit deal if the Tories were in their pockets.

    I stand by my observation (which came from somebody who has known Boris Johnson for decades and JohnO can attest to the provenance from before Boris Johnson became PM) and that is Boris Johnson was fundamentally too lazy and undisciplined to be PM, he wanted to do all the fun things but none of the hard work.

    Helping support Ukraine was one of those things that was relatively easy for him to do.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,057
    Scott_xP said:

    Can we not just flick the power off and on again?

    Not if we are all in The Matrix...
    Can I opt for the deal with the powers that be where I go back under but am rich and successful please?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,940

    With Hungary's grudging yes, Sweden now joins Finland in Nato. The length of the Russia-Nato border has jumped fourfold since Putin's invasion. Yet people glibly say that Putin is winning. Strategically he's still losing.

    https://twitter.com/EdwardGLuce/status/1762153983957680374

    So Boris was right when he said to Putin that going into his neighbouring states meant more NATO, not less?

    Boris was and is an ethically and morally bankrupt individual but for some reason actually became a half-decent leader on this particular issue.

    Maybe it was Churchill cosplay and stopped clocks. Or maybe people are complex.
    Part Chuchill cosplay; part Johnson's natural laziness. I imagine on this issue, he got good advice from the Foreign Office, Defence and MI6, and saw the opportunity to play his hero. He might even believe in it, inasfar as he believes in anything beyond himself.

    He's clearly not thought it through fully though, or considers it secondary, otherwise he wouldn't be palling up with Trump and the Republicans who are doing all they can to let Russia win.
    What good would it do to alienate the people who will likely control the US executive within months?
  • With Hungary's grudging yes, Sweden now joins Finland in Nato. The length of the Russia-Nato border has jumped fourfold since Putin's invasion. Yet people glibly say that Putin is winning. Strategically he's still losing.

    https://twitter.com/EdwardGLuce/status/1762153983957680374

    So Boris was right when he said to Putin that going into his neighbouring states meant more NATO, not less?

    Boris was and is an ethically and morally bankrupt individual but for some reason actually became a half-decent leader on this particular issue.

    Maybe it was Churchill cosplay and stopped clocks. Or maybe people are complex.
    Outgoing Conservative MP Nickie Aiken says she hopes history is kind to Boris Johnson because he "could have been an outstanding prime minister" if he'd had better people around him in No 10. The MP for the Cities of London and Westminster tells Matt Chorley why she's leaving Westminster and how much more she's paying on her mortgage thanks to Liz Truss.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhOeeeCplEY

    Times Radio's series of Exit Interviews with MPs who are standing down from Parliament can be fascinating.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,037
    A

    With Hungary's grudging yes, Sweden now joins Finland in Nato. The length of the Russia-Nato border has jumped fourfold since Putin's invasion. Yet people glibly say that Putin is winning. Strategically he's still losing.

    https://twitter.com/EdwardGLuce/status/1762153983957680374

    So Boris was right when he said to Putin that going into his neighbouring states meant more NATO, not less?

    Boris was and is an ethically and morally bankrupt individual but for some reason actually became a half-decent leader on this particular issue.

    Maybe it was Churchill cosplay and stopped clocks. Or maybe people are complex.
    Entirely predictable. The neighbourhood thug starts acting up, everyone joins the Neighbourhood Ronda, starts tooling up.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,464

    Speaker Hoyle retracts his offer of a debate for the SNP and they are really angry

    https://news.sky.com/story/speaker-sir-lindsay-hoyle-retracts-offer-to-snp-for-emergency-ceasefire-debate-13081621

    PG Wodehouse's remark about rays of sunshine applies, methinks.
    Isn't that a bit, erm, unsound in the current political climate?

    In any case the SNP have been done out of one of their three days a year. Still no news about replacing it. And this isn't a great look from Labour, who are lucky Mr Anderson has preempted the news.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/24143718.snp-call-probe-labour-mp-admits-wrecking-gaza-debate/
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,213
    edited February 26

    Taz said:
    A tribute to this country that so many people want to flee France for Britain.

    I have never felt more proud to be British than this.
    The UK’s asylum grant rate at the initial decision stage was nearly three times that of France (72% compared with 25%) in 2021, a year during which 28,500 people came to the UK from France in boats. The UK grant rate is now a permissive outlier compared with most of Europe and, by September 2022, had risen by more than 40 percentage points since 2016, when just a third of applications were approved at first instance. In contrast, France’s grant rate fell from a third in 2016 to a quarter in 2021. The recent rise in the UK grant rate may be motivating a rising number of boat crossings from France. 94% of arrivals then claim asylum.

    https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/511/recent-change-in-the-uk-asylum-grant-rate#:~:text=In contrast, of the 14,532,28 per cent being refused.

    The Home Office is unfit for purpose, what else is new?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,454
    edited February 26

    Leon said:

    I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating

    Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that

    However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI

    Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change

    Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom



    <0.01%
    Yann LeCun
    one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta
    (less likely than an asteroid)

    10%
    Vitalik Buterin
    Ethereum founder
    (Specifically means AI takeover)

    10%
    Geoff Hinton
    one of three godfathers of AI
    (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)

    14%
    Machine learning researchers
    (From 2022, median value is 5%)

    15%
    Lina Khan
    head of FTC

    10-20%
    Paul Christiano
    (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)

    10-25%
    Dario Amodei
    CEO of Anthropic

    20%
    Yoshua Bengio
    one of three godfathers of AI

    20-30%
    Elon Musk
    CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X

    5-50%
    Emmet Shear
    Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI

    30%
    AI Safety Researchers
    (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)

    33%
    Scott Alexander
    Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten

    35%
    Eli Lifland
    AI engineer
    (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)

    50%
    Holden Karnofsky
    Executive Director of Open Philanthropy

    10-90%
    Jan Leike
    alignment lead at OpenAI

    60%
    Zvi Mowshowitz
    AI researcher

    70%
    Daniel Kokotajlo
    OpenAI researcher & forecaster

    >80%
    Dan Hendrycks
    Head of Center for AI Safety

    >99%
    Eliezer Yudkowsky
    Founder of MIRI


    It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here

    Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago

    Your posts about AI bore me sh1tless. Even if I get terminated by a robot sent by Skynet inside the next 18 months who metallically laughs at me whilst pacing out "Leon was right, you puny human" in a cybernetic Austrian accent I'll still draw my last dying breath recalling your warnings with tedium.

    HOWEVER, you are right on that. Many of the youth have disconnected too much critical thinking for being fed what's on their social media thread instead, and that is a problem since this may affect them as much as anything else, like you say.
    So I’m right that the world may end within a decade due to a cyborg takeover, but also boring at the same time?

    I cherish your interventions in late January 2020, denouncing my warnings about that new virus from China, because you personally wanted to talk about the legal framework around domestic woodburners
  • Speaker Hoyle retracts his offer of a debate for the SNP and they are really angry

    https://news.sky.com/story/speaker-sir-lindsay-hoyle-retracts-offer-to-snp-for-emergency-ceasefire-debate-13081621

    "But Mr Flynn accused Westminster of "failing the people of Gaza by blocking a vote on the urgent actions the UK government must take to help make an immediate ceasefire happen"."

    What an absolute wazzock that man is. There was better than a vote. A motion passed by the House unopposed. Calling for an immediate ceasefire. So what he wants has happened.

    What he is stropping about is that his attempt to weaponise the issue as a shield to defend his otherwise doomed MPs has been rebuffed. Which has nothing at all to do with "the people of Gaza"
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,417

    Leon said:

    I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating

    Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that

    However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI

    Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change

    Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom



    <0.01%
    Yann LeCun
    one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta
    (less likely than an asteroid)

    10%
    Vitalik Buterin
    Ethereum founder
    (Specifically means AI takeover)

    10%
    Geoff Hinton
    one of three godfathers of AI
    (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)

    14%
    Machine learning researchers
    (From 2022, median value is 5%)

    15%
    Lina Khan
    head of FTC

    10-20%
    Paul Christiano
    (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)

    10-25%
    Dario Amodei
    CEO of Anthropic

    20%
    Yoshua Bengio
    one of three godfathers of AI

    20-30%
    Elon Musk
    CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X

    5-50%
    Emmet Shear
    Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI

    30%
    AI Safety Researchers
    (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)

    33%
    Scott Alexander
    Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten

    35%
    Eli Lifland
    AI engineer
    (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)

    50%
    Holden Karnofsky
    Executive Director of Open Philanthropy

    10-90%
    Jan Leike
    alignment lead at OpenAI

    60%
    Zvi Mowshowitz
    AI researcher

    70%
    Daniel Kokotajlo
    OpenAI researcher & forecaster

    >80%
    Dan Hendrycks
    Head of Center for AI Safety

    >99%
    Eliezer Yudkowsky
    Founder of MIRI


    It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here

    Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago

    I'd be less worried about what AI can do for itself and more worried about what the likes of Putin can do with it, in league with the likes of Musk.

    It will be impossible to run a democracy if we cannot have any kind of common understanding of facts. Or, put another way, if you credibly control the facts, you control everything else.
    How do you suppose the doom will come about? Step back from Watching Terminator films.

    "Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom"

    Can we not just flick the power off and on again?
    I imagine the doom of democracy and freedom will come about from hostile regimes and ultra-rich owners manipulating social media platforms with AI content to drive public opinion towards authoritarian opinions, leading to the election of politicians sympathetic to (and wholly owned by) the publishing owners.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,917

    Speaker Hoyle retracts his offer of a debate for the SNP and they are really angry

    https://news.sky.com/story/speaker-sir-lindsay-hoyle-retracts-offer-to-snp-for-emergency-ceasefire-debate-13081621

    The SNP have every right to carp that they have had one of their three debates spiked by the speaker. The Speaker was out of order.

    However, two of the last two debates motioned by the SNP are all about Gaza, as will be the next. It strikes me that mischief making is more important than the domestic issues the SNP were elected to resolve.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,037
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating

    Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that

    However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI

    Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change

    Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom



    <0.01%
    Yann LeCun
    one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta
    (less likely than an asteroid)

    10%
    Vitalik Buterin
    Ethereum founder
    (Specifically means AI takeover)

    10%
    Geoff Hinton
    one of three godfathers of AI
    (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)

    14%
    Machine learning researchers
    (From 2022, median value is 5%)

    15%
    Lina Khan
    head of FTC

    10-20%
    Paul Christiano
    (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)

    10-25%
    Dario Amodei
    CEO of Anthropic

    20%
    Yoshua Bengio
    one of three godfathers of AI

    20-30%
    Elon Musk
    CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X

    5-50%
    Emmet Shear
    Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI

    30%
    AI Safety Researchers
    (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)

    33%
    Scott Alexander
    Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten

    35%
    Eli Lifland
    AI engineer
    (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)

    50%
    Holden Karnofsky
    Executive Director of Open Philanthropy

    10-90%
    Jan Leike
    alignment lead at OpenAI

    60%
    Zvi Mowshowitz
    AI researcher

    70%
    Daniel Kokotajlo
    OpenAI researcher & forecaster

    >80%
    Dan Hendrycks
    Head of Center for AI Safety

    >99%
    Eliezer Yudkowsky
    Founder of MIRI


    It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here

    Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago

    To be fair you never heard young people banging on about the dangers of what.three.words either when you were assuring us that would be technological game changer.
    I'm old enough to remember Leon repeatedly assuring us, five years ago, that China would be the biggest economy in the world in five years and any PBer who questioned his forecast was an idiot.

    (I can also remember his more his more recent projection that Liz Truss would "surprise on the upside", but it would be ungentlemanly of me to salt the wound.)
    China has the world’s largest economy by PPP - and has done for almost a decade. The Russo-Ukraine war teaches us that GDP by PPP is the best measure of national strength



    No it doesn’t.

    By performance on the battlefield Russia is about equal to Poland with a couple of other European states by their side. In a year or two, after the new Polish rearmament plans kick in, Poland will be, by itself, militarily superior to Russia.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,773
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating

    Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that

    However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI

    Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change

    Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom



    <0.01%
    Yann LeCun
    one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta
    (less likely than an asteroid)

    10%
    Vitalik Buterin
    Ethereum founder
    (Specifically means AI takeover)

    10%
    Geoff Hinton
    one of three godfathers of AI
    (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)

    14%
    Machine learning researchers
    (From 2022, median value is 5%)

    15%
    Lina Khan
    head of FTC

    10-20%
    Paul Christiano
    (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)

    10-25%
    Dario Amodei
    CEO of Anthropic

    20%
    Yoshua Bengio
    one of three godfathers of AI

    20-30%
    Elon Musk
    CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X

    5-50%
    Emmet Shear
    Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI

    30%
    AI Safety Researchers
    (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)

    33%
    Scott Alexander
    Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten

    35%
    Eli Lifland
    AI engineer
    (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)

    50%
    Holden Karnofsky
    Executive Director of Open Philanthropy

    10-90%
    Jan Leike
    alignment lead at OpenAI

    60%
    Zvi Mowshowitz
    AI researcher

    70%
    Daniel Kokotajlo
    OpenAI researcher & forecaster

    >80%
    Dan Hendrycks
    Head of Center for AI Safety

    >99%
    Eliezer Yudkowsky
    Founder of MIRI


    It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here

    Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago

    To be fair you never heard young people banging on about the dangers of what.three.words either when you were assuring us that would be technological game changer.
    I'm old enough to remember Leon repeatedly assuring us, five years ago, that China would be the biggest economy in the world in five years and any PBer who questioned his forecast was an idiot.

    (I can also remember his more his more recent projection that Liz Truss would "surprise on the upside", but it would be ungentlemanly of me to salt the wound.)
    China has the world’s largest economy by PPP - and has done for almost a decade. The Russo-Ukraine war teaches us that GDP by PPP is the best measure of national strength



    LOL.

    The very epitome of changing the goalposts to suit your argument.

    You wasted thousands of pixels on here assuring us, daily, that China would by now be the world's largest economy, by the standard definition of GDP.

    It is nowhere near. And, more to the point, few economists think it will be the world's largest economy any time soon.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,464
    edited February 26

    Speaker Hoyle retracts his offer of a debate for the SNP and they are really angry

    https://news.sky.com/story/speaker-sir-lindsay-hoyle-retracts-offer-to-snp-for-emergency-ceasefire-debate-13081621

    The SNP have every right to carp that they have had one of their three debates spiked by the speaker. The Speaker was out of order.

    However, two of the last two debates motioned by the SNP are all about Gaza, as will be the next. It strikes me that mischief making is more important than the domestic issues the SNP were elected to resolve.
    It astounds me that intelligent PBers can't grasp that, at Westminster, thje SNP *were* elected to deal with UK foreign policy, inter aliis.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 2,747

    Leon said:

    I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating

    Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that

    However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI

    Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change

    Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom



    <0.01%
    Yann LeCun
    one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta
    (less likely than an asteroid)

    10%
    Vitalik Buterin
    Ethereum founder
    (Specifically means AI takeover)

    10%
    Geoff Hinton
    one of three godfathers of AI
    (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)

    14%
    Machine learning researchers
    (From 2022, median value is 5%)

    15%
    Lina Khan
    head of FTC

    10-20%
    Paul Christiano
    (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)

    10-25%
    Dario Amodei
    CEO of Anthropic

    20%
    Yoshua Bengio
    one of three godfathers of AI

    20-30%
    Elon Musk
    CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X

    5-50%
    Emmet Shear
    Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI

    30%
    AI Safety Researchers
    (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)

    33%
    Scott Alexander
    Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten

    35%
    Eli Lifland
    AI engineer
    (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)

    50%
    Holden Karnofsky
    Executive Director of Open Philanthropy

    10-90%
    Jan Leike
    alignment lead at OpenAI

    60%
    Zvi Mowshowitz
    AI researcher

    70%
    Daniel Kokotajlo
    OpenAI researcher & forecaster

    >80%
    Dan Hendrycks
    Head of Center for AI Safety

    >99%
    Eliezer Yudkowsky
    Founder of MIRI


    It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here

    Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago

    To be fair you never heard young people banging on about the dangers of what.three.words either when you were assuring us that would be technological game changer.
    I'm old enough to remember Leon repeatedly assuring us, five years ago, that China would be the biggest economy in the world in five years and any PBer who questioned his forecast was an idiot.

    (I can also remember his more his more recent projection that Liz Truss would "surprise on the upside", but it would be ungentlemanly of me to salt the wound.)
    Impossible. Leon wasn't here five years ago!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,940

    Leon said:

    I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating

    Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that

    However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI

    Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change

    Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom



    <0.01%
    Yann LeCun
    one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta
    (less likely than an asteroid)

    10%
    Vitalik Buterin
    Ethereum founder
    (Specifically means AI takeover)

    10%
    Geoff Hinton
    one of three godfathers of AI
    (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)

    14%
    Machine learning researchers
    (From 2022, median value is 5%)

    15%
    Lina Khan
    head of FTC

    10-20%
    Paul Christiano
    (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)

    10-25%
    Dario Amodei
    CEO of Anthropic

    20%
    Yoshua Bengio
    one of three godfathers of AI

    20-30%
    Elon Musk
    CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X

    5-50%
    Emmet Shear
    Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI

    30%
    AI Safety Researchers
    (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)

    33%
    Scott Alexander
    Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten

    35%
    Eli Lifland
    AI engineer
    (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)

    50%
    Holden Karnofsky
    Executive Director of Open Philanthropy

    10-90%
    Jan Leike
    alignment lead at OpenAI

    60%
    Zvi Mowshowitz
    AI researcher

    70%
    Daniel Kokotajlo
    OpenAI researcher & forecaster

    >80%
    Dan Hendrycks
    Head of Center for AI Safety

    >99%
    Eliezer Yudkowsky
    Founder of MIRI


    It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here

    Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago

    I'd be less worried about what AI can do for itself and more worried about what the likes of Putin can do with it, in league with the likes of Musk.

    It will be impossible to run a democracy if we cannot have any kind of common understanding of facts. Or, put another way, if you credibly control the facts, you control everything else.
    How do you suppose the doom will come about? Step back from Watching Terminator films.

    "Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom"

    Can we not just flick the power off and on again?
    I imagine the doom of democracy and freedom will come about from hostile regimes and ultra-rich owners manipulating social media platforms with AI content to drive public opinion towards authoritarian opinions, leading to the election of politicians sympathetic to (and wholly owned by) the publishing owners.
    If you think people are too suggestible to be trusted, then do you really believe in democracy? I would say no, and maybe it's better to be honest about it.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,773
    Does anyone actually rate/support 30p Lee? He seems to be a laughing stock in his own party, and indeed his own seat of Ashfield.

    What exactly is the point of him?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,169

    With Hungary's grudging yes, Sweden now joins Finland in Nato. The length of the Russia-Nato border has jumped fourfold since Putin's invasion. Yet people glibly say that Putin is winning. Strategically he's still losing.

    https://twitter.com/EdwardGLuce/status/1762153983957680374

    So Boris was right when he said to Putin that going into his neighbouring states meant more NATO, not less?

    Boris was and is an ethically and morally bankrupt individual but for some reason actually became a half-decent leader on this particular issue.

    Maybe it was Churchill cosplay and stopped clocks. Or maybe people are complex.
    The thing that cracks me up is the left wing criticism that the Tories are in the pockets of Russia.

    My word the Russians got a shit deal if the Tories were in their pockets.

    I stand by my observation (which came from somebody who has known Boris Johnson for decades and JohnO can attest to the provenance from before Boris Johnson became PM) and that is Boris Johnson was fundamentally too lazy and undisciplined to be PM, he wanted to do all the fun things but none of the hard work.

    Helping support Ukraine was one of those things that was relatively easy for him to do.
    Yes, I think that's right.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,454

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating

    Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that

    However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI

    Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change

    Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom



    <0.01%
    Yann LeCun
    one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta
    (less likely than an asteroid)

    10%
    Vitalik Buterin
    Ethereum founder
    (Specifically means AI takeover)

    10%
    Geoff Hinton
    one of three godfathers of AI
    (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)

    14%
    Machine learning researchers
    (From 2022, median value is 5%)

    15%
    Lina Khan
    head of FTC

    10-20%
    Paul Christiano
    (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)

    10-25%
    Dario Amodei
    CEO of Anthropic

    20%
    Yoshua Bengio
    one of three godfathers of AI

    20-30%
    Elon Musk
    CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X

    5-50%
    Emmet Shear
    Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI

    30%
    AI Safety Researchers
    (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)

    33%
    Scott Alexander
    Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten

    35%
    Eli Lifland
    AI engineer
    (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)

    50%
    Holden Karnofsky
    Executive Director of Open Philanthropy

    10-90%
    Jan Leike
    alignment lead at OpenAI

    60%
    Zvi Mowshowitz
    AI researcher

    70%
    Daniel Kokotajlo
    OpenAI researcher & forecaster

    >80%
    Dan Hendrycks
    Head of Center for AI Safety

    >99%
    Eliezer Yudkowsky
    Founder of MIRI


    It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here

    Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago

    To be fair you never heard young people banging on about the dangers of what.three.words either when you were assuring us that would be technological game changer.
    I'm old enough to remember Leon repeatedly assuring us, five years ago, that China would be the biggest economy in the world in five years and any PBer who questioned his forecast was an idiot.

    (I can also remember his more his more recent projection that Liz Truss would "surprise on the upside", but it would be ungentlemanly of me to salt the wound.)
    China has the world’s largest economy by PPP - and has done for almost a decade. The Russo-Ukraine war teaches us that GDP by PPP is the best measure of national strength



    LOL.

    The very epitome of changing the goalposts to suit your argument.

    You wasted thousands of pixels on here assuring us, daily, that China would by now be the world's largest economy, by the standard definition of GDP.

    It is nowhere near. And, more to the point, few economists think it will be the world's largest economy any time soon.

    No, I’m right right right right right right right and right again. Sorry

    With the singular exception of what3words, but even they might surprise on the upside. Eventually
  • Speaker Hoyle retracts his offer of a debate for the SNP and they are really angry

    https://news.sky.com/story/speaker-sir-lindsay-hoyle-retracts-offer-to-snp-for-emergency-ceasefire-debate-13081621

    The SNP have every right to carp that they have had one of their three debates spiked by the speaker. The Speaker was out of order.

    However, two of the last two debates motioned by the SNP are all about Gaza, as will be the next. It strikes me that mischief making is more important than the domestic issues the SNP were elected to resolve.
    Since when have the SNP been interested in domestic issues other than independence
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,452
    kamski's conclusion that US foreign policy was broadly similar over a series of presidents, even including Trump, misses an important point: George H. W. Bush negotiated a decrease in nuclear weapons with Russia, as did Clinton, and George W. Bush, and even Barack Obama.

    The Loser, as I call DJT, didn't even try to negotiate such an agreement. But kamski may not consider that important.
  • The path is now very clear for 30p Lee. Defect to UFUK. Noisily. Denouncing the Tories and everything they don't stand for. Foam on about "proper British values" which are anything but. Become the totem for the angry gammonite WWC. Lead the UFUK block in the Commons which will be bigger than the LibDem block as he shows the way for other angry doomed Tories. With a GBeebies show as a pulpit every week. Winning his seat at the GE.

    Or, don't. Offer up an insincere apology and get the Tory whip back, only to get demolished at the election.

    If there was a RefuK group of more than 1 MP, they would split within a year.
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