I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating
Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that
However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI
Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change
Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom
<0.01% Yann LeCun one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta (less likely than an asteroid)
10% Vitalik Buterin Ethereum founder (Specifically means AI takeover)
10% Geoff Hinton one of three godfathers of AI (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)
14% Machine learning researchers (From 2022, median value is 5%)
15% Lina Khan head of FTC
10-20% Paul Christiano (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)
10-25% Dario Amodei CEO of Anthropic
20% Yoshua Bengio one of three godfathers of AI
20-30% Elon Musk CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X
5-50% Emmet Shear Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI
30% AI Safety Researchers (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)
33% Scott Alexander Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten
35% Eli Lifland AI engineer (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)
50% Holden Karnofsky Executive Director of Open Philanthropy
10-90% Jan Leike alignment lead at OpenAI
60% Zvi Mowshowitz AI researcher
70% Daniel Kokotajlo OpenAI researcher & forecaster
>80% Dan Hendrycks Head of Center for AI Safety
>99% Eliezer Yudkowsky Founder of MIRI
It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here
Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago
Your posts about AI bore me sh1tless. Even if I get terminated by a robot sent by Skynet inside the next 18 months who metallically laughs at me whilst pacing out "Leon was right, you puny human" in a cybernetic Austrian accent I'll still draw my last dying breath recalling your warnings with tedium.
HOWEVER, you are right on that. Many of the youth have disconnected too much critical thinking for being fed what's on their social media thread instead, and that is a problem since this may affect them as much as anything else, like you say.
So I’m right that the world may end within a decade due to a cyborg takeover, but also boring at the same time?
I cherish your interventions in late January 2020, denouncing my warnings about that new virus from China, because you personally wanted to talk about the legal framework around domestic woodburners
Yeah basically.
I never gave a shit about woodburners. I did post 3-4 times about my worries about the China virus in January 2020 (and even stocked up over it) but I just post 300-400 times.
I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating
Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that
However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI
Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change
Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom
<0.01% Yann LeCun one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta (less likely than an asteroid)
10% Vitalik Buterin Ethereum founder (Specifically means AI takeover)
10% Geoff Hinton one of three godfathers of AI (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)
14% Machine learning researchers (From 2022, median value is 5%)
15% Lina Khan head of FTC
10-20% Paul Christiano (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)
10-25% Dario Amodei CEO of Anthropic
20% Yoshua Bengio one of three godfathers of AI
20-30% Elon Musk CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X
5-50% Emmet Shear Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI
30% AI Safety Researchers (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)
33% Scott Alexander Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten
35% Eli Lifland AI engineer (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)
50% Holden Karnofsky Executive Director of Open Philanthropy
10-90% Jan Leike alignment lead at OpenAI
60% Zvi Mowshowitz AI researcher
70% Daniel Kokotajlo OpenAI researcher & forecaster
>80% Dan Hendrycks Head of Center for AI Safety
>99% Eliezer Yudkowsky Founder of MIRI
It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here
Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago
To be fair you never heard young people banging on about the dangers of what.three.words either when you were assuring us that would be technological game changer.
I'm old enough to remember Leon repeatedly assuring us, five years ago, that China would be the biggest economy in the world in five years and any PBer who questioned his forecast was an idiot.
(I can also remember his more his more recent projection that Liz Truss would "surprise on the upside", but it would be ungentlemanly of me to salt the wound.)
China has the world’s largest economy by PPP - and has done for almost a decade. The Russo-Ukraine war teaches us that GDP by PPP is the best measure of national strength
LOL.
The very epitome of changing the goalposts to suit your argument.
You wasted thousands of pixels on here assuring us, daily, that China would by now be the world's largest economy, by the standard definition of GDP.
It is nowhere near. And, more to the point, few economists think it will be the world's largest economy any time soon.
No, I’m right right right right right right right and right again. Sorry
With the singular exception of what3words, but even they might surprise on the upside. Eventually
I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating
Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that
However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI
Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change
Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom
<0.01% Yann LeCun one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta (less likely than an asteroid)
10% Vitalik Buterin Ethereum founder (Specifically means AI takeover)
10% Geoff Hinton one of three godfathers of AI (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)
14% Machine learning researchers (From 2022, median value is 5%)
15% Lina Khan head of FTC
10-20% Paul Christiano (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)
10-25% Dario Amodei CEO of Anthropic
20% Yoshua Bengio one of three godfathers of AI
20-30% Elon Musk CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X
5-50% Emmet Shear Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI
30% AI Safety Researchers (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)
33% Scott Alexander Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten
35% Eli Lifland AI engineer (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)
50% Holden Karnofsky Executive Director of Open Philanthropy
10-90% Jan Leike alignment lead at OpenAI
60% Zvi Mowshowitz AI researcher
70% Daniel Kokotajlo OpenAI researcher & forecaster
>80% Dan Hendrycks Head of Center for AI Safety
>99% Eliezer Yudkowsky Founder of MIRI
It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here
Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago
To be fair you never heard young people banging on about the dangers of what.three.words either when you were assuring us that would be technological game changer.
I'm old enough to remember Leon repeatedly assuring us, five years ago, that China would be the biggest economy in the world in five years and any PBer who questioned his forecast was an idiot.
(I can also remember his more his more recent projection that Liz Truss would "surprise on the upside", but it would be ungentlemanly of me to salt the wound.)
I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating
Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that
However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI
Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change
Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom
<0.01% Yann LeCun one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta (less likely than an asteroid)
10% Vitalik Buterin Ethereum founder (Specifically means AI takeover)
10% Geoff Hinton one of three godfathers of AI (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)
14% Machine learning researchers (From 2022, median value is 5%)
15% Lina Khan head of FTC
10-20% Paul Christiano (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)
10-25% Dario Amodei CEO of Anthropic
20% Yoshua Bengio one of three godfathers of AI
20-30% Elon Musk CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X
5-50% Emmet Shear Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI
30% AI Safety Researchers (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)
33% Scott Alexander Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten
35% Eli Lifland AI engineer (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)
50% Holden Karnofsky Executive Director of Open Philanthropy
10-90% Jan Leike alignment lead at OpenAI
60% Zvi Mowshowitz AI researcher
70% Daniel Kokotajlo OpenAI researcher & forecaster
>80% Dan Hendrycks Head of Center for AI Safety
>99% Eliezer Yudkowsky Founder of MIRI
It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here
Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago
Your posts about AI bore me sh1tless. Even if I get terminated by a robot sent by Skynet inside the next 18 months who metallically laughs at me whilst pacing out "Leon was right, you puny human" in a cybernetic Austrian accent I'll still draw my last dying breath recalling your warnings with tedium.
HOWEVER, you are right on that. Many of the youth have disconnected too much critical thinking for being fed what's on their social media thread instead, and that is a problem since this may affect them as much as anything else, like you say.
Leon says climate change "has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim" and you lament the languishing of critical thinking (and I would add that philosophy in general has been hamstrung by identity politics with the feelings over facts that this involves).
Regarding climate change, I've never heard one discussion about whether it might differentially affect the species that caused it - us - more than non-human nature. The zealots might want to think about that.
The SNP have every right to carp that they have had one of their three debates spiked by the speaker. The Speaker was out of order.
However, two of the last two debates motioned by the SNP are all about Gaza, as will be the next. It strikes me that mischief making is more important than the domestic issues the SNP were elected to resolve.
It astounds me that intelligent PBers can't grasp that, at Westminster, thje SNP *were* elected to deal with UK foreign policy, inter aliis.
One debate out of three, fair enough. But three out of three! Do they not have a domestic agenda?
The SNP have every right to carp that they have had one of their three debates spiked by the speaker. The Speaker was out of order.
However, two of the last two debates motioned by the SNP are all about Gaza, as will be the next. It strikes me that mischief making is more important than the domestic issues the SNP were elected to resolve.
Besides, the michief doesn't really work any more.
The SNP's game was to put up a "We think the Palestinians deserve a break (with these controversial/toxic terms and conditions)" motion- the sort of motion it would be bad to support and bad to oppose.
The effect of last week's antics was that Labour got to vote for a detoxified "We think the Palestinians deserve a break" motion, which sailed through. That makes it easier to oppose or ignore whatever the SNP put up next.
The SNP have every right to carp that they have had one of their three debates spiked by the speaker. The Speaker was out of order.
However, two of the last two debates motioned by the SNP are all about Gaza, as will be the next. It strikes me that mischief making is more important than the domestic issues the SNP were elected to resolve.
It astounds me that intelligent PBers can't grasp that, at Westminster, thje SNP *were* elected to deal with UK foreign policy, inter aliis.
But how much of UK parliamentary time should any of them be dedicating to this? Neither side gives a particular damn what the UK thinks, and the amount of rancorous pontificating we go in for on the issue seems wholly disproportionate.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -26%, down one point from last week’s poll, and the lowest approval rating Sunak has ever recorded in our polling as either Prime Minister or Chancellor of the Exchequer.
This week’s poll finds 26% approving of his overall job performance (–) against 52% (+1) disapproving.
Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +2%, down seven points from last week, and the lowest approval rating he has recorded since 14 May 2023 (when it was also +2%).
35% approve of Starmer’s job performance (-4), while 33% disapprove (+3).
The SNP have every right to carp that they have had one of their three debates spiked by the speaker. The Speaker was out of order.
However, two of the last two debates motioned by the SNP are all about Gaza, as will be the next. It strikes me that mischief making is more important than the domestic issues the SNP were elected to resolve.
It astounds me that intelligent PBers can't grasp that, at Westminster, thje SNP *were* elected to deal with UK foreign policy, inter aliis.
One debate out of three, fair enough. But three out of three! Do they not have a domestic policy?
They didn't even get the last *debate*. And theyd have debated green energy as well, if Labour hadn't wrecked the day. And the last opposition day was pre Gaza, wasn't it? Are you thinking of the King's Speech debate?
The SNP have every right to carp that they have had one of their three debates spiked by the speaker. The Speaker was out of order.
However, two of the last two debates motioned by the SNP are all about Gaza, as will be the next. It strikes me that mischief making is more important than the domestic issues the SNP were elected to resolve.
It astounds me that intelligent PBers can't grasp that, at Westminster, thje SNP *were* elected to deal with UK foreign policy, inter aliis.
But how much of UK parliamentary time should any of them be dedicating to this? Neither side gives a particular damn what the UK thinks, and the amount of rancorous pontificating we go in for on the issue seems wholly disproportionate.
All MPs have a right to represent their voters on all subjects that are not outwith their remit or the HoC procedures. And the time and energy wasted stems directly from the wrecking tactics of other MPs trying to deny this.
I can't understand why so many normally intellgent PBers seem to be accepting this.
I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating
Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that
However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI
Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change
Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom
<0.01% Yann LeCun one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta (less likely than an asteroid)
10% Vitalik Buterin Ethereum founder (Specifically means AI takeover)
10% Geoff Hinton one of three godfathers of AI (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)
14% Machine learning researchers (From 2022, median value is 5%)
15% Lina Khan head of FTC
10-20% Paul Christiano (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)
10-25% Dario Amodei CEO of Anthropic
20% Yoshua Bengio one of three godfathers of AI
20-30% Elon Musk CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X
5-50% Emmet Shear Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI
30% AI Safety Researchers (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)
33% Scott Alexander Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten
35% Eli Lifland AI engineer (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)
50% Holden Karnofsky Executive Director of Open Philanthropy
10-90% Jan Leike alignment lead at OpenAI
60% Zvi Mowshowitz AI researcher
70% Daniel Kokotajlo OpenAI researcher & forecaster
>80% Dan Hendrycks Head of Center for AI Safety
>99% Eliezer Yudkowsky Founder of MIRI
It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here
Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago
Your posts about AI bore me sh1tless. Even if I get terminated by a robot sent by Skynet inside the next 18 months who metallically laughs at me whilst pacing out "Leon was right, you puny human" in a cybernetic Austrian accent I'll still draw my last dying breath recalling your warnings with tedium.
HOWEVER, you are right on that. Many of the youth have disconnected too much critical thinking for being fed what's on their social media thread instead, and that is a problem since this may affect them as much as anything else, like you say.
So I’m right that the world may end within a decade due to a cyborg takeover, but also boring at the same time?
I cherish your interventions in late January 2020, denouncing my warnings about that new virus from China, because you personally wanted to talk about the legal framework around domestic woodburners
If the world does end it, well mankind ends, it should do some good for the environment so Just Stop Oil will be happy.
kamski's conclusion that US foreign policy was broadly similar over a series of presidents, even including Trump, misses an important point: George H. W. Bush negotiated a decrease in nuclear weapons with Russia, as did Clinton, and George W. Bush, and even Barack Obama.
The Loser, as I call DJT, didn't even try to negotiate such an agreement. But kamski may not consider that important.
Wasn't aware of it. Why didn't Trump? Did the Russians want further agreements? Did Biden make any attempt?
The SNP have every right to carp that they have had one of their three debates spiked by the speaker. The Speaker was out of order.
However, two of the last two debates motioned by the SNP are all about Gaza, as will be the next. It strikes me that mischief making is more important than the domestic issues the SNP were elected to resolve.
Besides, the michief doesn't really work any more.
The SNP's game was to put up a "We think the Palestinians deserve a break (with these controversial/toxic terms and conditions)" motion- the sort of motion it would be bad to support and bad to oppose.
The effect of last week's antics was that Labour got to vote for a detoxified "We think the Palestinians deserve a break" motion, which sailed through. That makes it easier to oppose or ignore whatever the SNP put up next.
But alkso whatever the LDs, or PC, or DUP, or (after the election) the Tories. It's not up to the Speaker to make life easier for Labour.
I don't disagree with TSE often but I'd be very surprised to see Khan take legal action against Anderson. Political battles - even ones that descend into gutter slander - are best dealt with in the court of public opinion and at the ballot box. I suspect a majority of the public tend towards that kind of opinion too. Anderson has already paid a price for his words (though how high a price depends on whether he's allowed to return to the Tory fold before the election - if indeed he wants to).
We also need to be wary of politicians suing each other over rhetoric, and I think most politicians get that, even when there's a solid case to be made that a particular statement was unjustified and defamatory.
I don't think Anderson would worry about a defamation case TBH. SK would have to show he's serious, and I think in a run up to a Mayoral Election having mouth-breathing Tories gurning at him whilst stabbing each other in the back *and* front may be a help politically.
Anderson's already had at least two where people have shouted things at him about him shooting his mouth off, then not followed through. That is what's-her-name 'poverty food writer' with the millionaire dad, and the dad of an Ashfield Councillor with (the Councillor) a fairly regular criminal record.
I note Susan Hall uses the approved Conservative Party jargon of "anti-Muslim hatred" rather than saying "Islamophobia". God knows why they feel the need to quibble over this. Kemi Badenoch tried explaining.
kamski's conclusion that US foreign policy was broadly similar over a series of presidents, even including Trump, misses an important point: George H. W. Bush negotiated a decrease in nuclear weapons with Russia, as did Clinton, and George W. Bush, and even Barack Obama.
The Loser, as I call DJT, didn't even try to negotiate such an agreement. But kamski may not consider that important.
Wasn't aware of it. Why didn't Trump? Did the Russians want further agreements? Did Biden make any attempt?
Biden extended START at the very beginning of his presidency. Some commentators saw it as a gift to Putin:
The outrageous treatment of the Scottish at Westminster only proves the point. Scotland must have independence or Gaza will never be free...
Err The Scots
I almost typed Scotch - was trying to satirise the kind of rant that will be written into SNP leaflets.
Well, if you insist that some MPs are to be treated as second class MPs and not allowed to do what other MPs are permitted to do, then what do you expect?
The matter is still rumbling on - but the Speaker is running out of time to resolve it equitably.
I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating
Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that
However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI
Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change
Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom
<0.01% Yann LeCun one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta (less likely than an asteroid)
10% Vitalik Buterin Ethereum founder (Specifically means AI takeover)
10% Geoff Hinton one of three godfathers of AI (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)
14% Machine learning researchers (From 2022, median value is 5%)
15% Lina Khan head of FTC
10-20% Paul Christiano (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)
10-25% Dario Amodei CEO of Anthropic
20% Yoshua Bengio one of three godfathers of AI
20-30% Elon Musk CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X
5-50% Emmet Shear Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI
30% AI Safety Researchers (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)
33% Scott Alexander Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten
35% Eli Lifland AI engineer (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)
50% Holden Karnofsky Executive Director of Open Philanthropy
10-90% Jan Leike alignment lead at OpenAI
60% Zvi Mowshowitz AI researcher
70% Daniel Kokotajlo OpenAI researcher & forecaster
>80% Dan Hendrycks Head of Center for AI Safety
>99% Eliezer Yudkowsky Founder of MIRI
It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here
Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago
To be fair you never heard young people banging on about the dangers of what.three.words either when you were assuring us that would be technological game changer.
I'm old enough to remember Leon repeatedly assuring us, five years ago, that China would be the biggest economy in the world in five years and any PBer who questioned his forecast was an idiot.
(I can also remember his more his more recent projection that Liz Truss would "surprise on the upside", but it would be ungentlemanly of me to salt the wound.)
China has the world’s largest economy by PPP - and has done for almost a decade. The Russo-Ukraine war teaches us that GDP by PPP is the best measure of national strength
LOL.
The very epitome of changing the goalposts to suit your argument.
You wasted thousands of pixels on here assuring us, daily, that China would by now be the world's largest economy, by the standard definition of GDP.
It is nowhere near. And, more to the point, few economists think it will be the world's largest economy any time soon.
I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating
Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that
However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI
Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change
Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom
<0.01% Yann LeCun one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta (less likely than an asteroid)
10% Vitalik Buterin Ethereum founder (Specifically means AI takeover)
10% Geoff Hinton one of three godfathers of AI (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)
14% Machine learning researchers (From 2022, median value is 5%)
15% Lina Khan head of FTC
10-20% Paul Christiano (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)
10-25% Dario Amodei CEO of Anthropic
20% Yoshua Bengio one of three godfathers of AI
20-30% Elon Musk CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X
5-50% Emmet Shear Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI
30% AI Safety Researchers (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)
33% Scott Alexander Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten
35% Eli Lifland AI engineer (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)
50% Holden Karnofsky Executive Director of Open Philanthropy
10-90% Jan Leike alignment lead at OpenAI
60% Zvi Mowshowitz AI researcher
70% Daniel Kokotajlo OpenAI researcher & forecaster
>80% Dan Hendrycks Head of Center for AI Safety
>99% Eliezer Yudkowsky Founder of MIRI
It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here
Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago
To be fair you never heard young people banging on about the dangers of what.three.words either when you were assuring us that would be technological game changer.
I'm old enough to remember Leon repeatedly assuring us, five years ago, that China would be the biggest economy in the world in five years and any PBer who questioned his forecast was an idiot.
(I can also remember his more his more recent projection that Liz Truss would "surprise on the upside", but it would be ungentlemanly of me to salt the wound.)
China has the world’s largest economy by PPP - and has done for almost a decade. The Russo-Ukraine war teaches us that GDP by PPP is the best measure of national strength
LOL.
The very epitome of changing the goalposts to suit your argument.
You wasted thousands of pixels on here assuring us, daily, that China would by now be the world's largest economy, by the standard definition of GDP.
It is nowhere near. And, more to the point, few economists think it will be the world's largest economy any time soon.
No, I’m right right right right right right right and right again. Sorry
With the singular exception of what3words, but even they might surprise on the upside. Eventually
Were you right when predicting the results of the 2019 General Election? Asking for a friend.
I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating
Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that
However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI
Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change
Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom
<0.01% Yann LeCun one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta (less likely than an asteroid)
10% Vitalik Buterin Ethereum founder (Specifically means AI takeover)
10% Geoff Hinton one of three godfathers of AI (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)
14% Machine learning researchers (From 2022, median value is 5%)
15% Lina Khan head of FTC
10-20% Paul Christiano (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)
10-25% Dario Amodei CEO of Anthropic
20% Yoshua Bengio one of three godfathers of AI
20-30% Elon Musk CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X
5-50% Emmet Shear Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI
30% AI Safety Researchers (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)
33% Scott Alexander Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten
35% Eli Lifland AI engineer (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)
50% Holden Karnofsky Executive Director of Open Philanthropy
10-90% Jan Leike alignment lead at OpenAI
60% Zvi Mowshowitz AI researcher
70% Daniel Kokotajlo OpenAI researcher & forecaster
>80% Dan Hendrycks Head of Center for AI Safety
>99% Eliezer Yudkowsky Founder of MIRI
It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here
Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago
To be fair you never heard young people banging on about the dangers of what.three.words either when you were assuring us that would be technological game changer.
I'm old enough to remember Leon repeatedly assuring us, five years ago, that China would be the biggest economy in the world in five years and any PBer who questioned his forecast was an idiot.
(I can also remember his more his more recent projection that Liz Truss would "surprise on the upside", but it would be ungentlemanly of me to salt the wound.)
Impossible. Leon wasn't here five years ago!
Ha
Good job he's not called SeanT.
I just asked the Internet, and it says "séant" is polite slang in French for "arse".
eg "Les plus précieuses de ces dames s'étaient prémunies du confort spartiate des sièges métalliques en protégeant leur séant d'un coussin."
On topic, Lee Anderson is imo principally engaged in building a personal brand. He reminds me rather of Katie Hopkins. The supposed USP is saying what 'ordinary people' think but are too cowed by the woke consensus to say.
It's not much of a USP since these days you can't move for people saying what they are too cowed by the woke consensus to say. You could almost be forgiven for thinking the 'woke consensus' is the invention of those who wish to define themselves by railing against it.
The outrageous treatment of the Scottish at Westminster only proves the point. Scotland must have independence or Gaza will never be free...
Err The Scots
I almost typed Scotch - was trying to satirise the kind of rant that will be written into SNP leaflets.
Well, if you insist that some MPs are to be treated as second class MPs and not allowed to do what other MPs are permitted to do, then what do you expect?
The matter is still rumbling on - but the Speaker is running out of time to resolve it equitably.
Seems signatures have risen to 80 and talk of the SNP making a formal complaint about both Hoyle and Starmer to the Privileges Committee
I still do not think this is going anywhere, but it will linger on for some time yet
The SNP have every right to carp that they have had one of their three debates spiked by the speaker. The Speaker was out of order.
However, two of the last two debates motioned by the SNP are all about Gaza, as will be the next. It strikes me that mischief making is more important than the domestic issues the SNP were elected to resolve.
It astounds me that intelligent PBers can't grasp that, at Westminster, thje SNP *were* elected to deal with UK foreign policy, inter aliis.
One debate out of three, fair enough. But three out of three! Do they not have a domestic policy?
They didn't even get the last *debate*. And theyd have debated green energy as well, if Labour hadn't wrecked the day. And the last opposition day was pre Gaza, wasn't it? Are you thinking of the King's Speech debate?
Mind you it seems to have all worked in their favour. Labour plummeting by 4 points and an uptick in the SNP's fortunes.
The outrageous treatment of the Scottish at Westminster only proves the point. Scotland must have independence or Gaza will never be free...
Err The Scots
I almost typed Scotch - was trying to satirise the kind of rant that will be written into SNP leaflets.
Well, if you insist that some MPs are to be treated as second class MPs and not allowed to do what other MPs are permitted to do, then what do you expect?
The matter is still rumbling on - but the Speaker is running out of time to resolve it equitably.
Its back to the aim. The SNP have no interest in Gaza other that political shenanigans. What they claim they wanted they have achieved - a call for an immediate ceasefire which is not what the government wanted. The absolute definition of what opposition days are there to try and achieve.
The SNP have every right to carp that they have had one of their three debates spiked by the speaker. The Speaker was out of order.
However, two of the last two debates motioned by the SNP are all about Gaza, as will be the next. It strikes me that mischief making is more important than the domestic issues the SNP were elected to resolve.
It astounds me that intelligent PBers can't grasp that, at Westminster, thje SNP *were* elected to deal with UK foreign policy, inter aliis.
One debate out of three, fair enough. But three out of three! Do they not have a domestic policy?
They didn't even get the last *debate*. And theyd have debated green energy as well, if Labour hadn't wrecked the day. And the last opposition day was pre Gaza, wasn't it? Are you thinking of the King's Speech debate?
Mind you it seems to have all worked in their favour. Labour plummeting by 4 points and an uptick in the SNP's fortunes.
And less of the intelligent PBer please!
Subsamples, subsamples. And apologies for any insult. Quite inadvertent. Regrets etc.
Does anyone actually rate/support 30p Lee? He seems to be a laughing stock in his own party, and indeed his own seat of Ashfield.
What exactly is the point of him?
Yes, sadly he has reasonable support, but it just won't the be the pb demographic. Even for the handful of Trumpista headbangers on here, Anderson is simply too uncouth and hasn't been to the right schools. Not that the pb Trumpista headbangers are insincere in their desire to represent the white working class, not at all.
The outrageous treatment of the Scottish at Westminster only proves the point. Scotland must have independence or Gaza will never be free...
Err The Scots
I almost typed Scotch - was trying to satirise the kind of rant that will be written into SNP leaflets.
Well, if you insist that some MPs are to be treated as second class MPs and not allowed to do what other MPs are permitted to do, then what do you expect?
The matter is still rumbling on - but the Speaker is running out of time to resolve it equitably.
Its back to the aim. The SNP have no interest in Gaza other that political shenanigans. What they claim they wanted they have achieved - a call for an immediate ceasefire which is not what the government wanted. The absolute definition of what opposition days are there to try and achieve.
Nevertheless: the rules were broken in a way seriously inimical to the SNP and *any* non-majority party.
It astounds me that PBers, intelligent or otherwise, can't accept that the SNP hold the policy in good faith, given public opinion, and the unusual position of their leader. Of course, kneeing Labour int he nads is a good secondary aim, but in this instance you do need to do better than that.
The outrageous treatment of the Scottish at Westminster only proves the point. Scotland must have independence or Gaza will never be free...
Err The Scots
I almost typed Scotch - was trying to satirise the kind of rant that will be written into SNP leaflets.
Well, if you insist that some MPs are to be treated as second class MPs and not allowed to do what other MPs are permitted to do, then what do you expect?
The matter is still rumbling on - but the Speaker is running out of time to resolve it equitably.
Seems signatures have risen to 80 and talk of the SNP making a formal complaint about both Hoyle and Starmer to the Privileges Committee
I still do not think this is going anywhere, but it will linger on for some time yet
I genuinely hope the SNP succeed in defenestrating Hoyle and wind up with Speaker Rees Mogg. It's hard to pin down a Starmer resignation. Not even beer and curry levels of behaviour I don't suppose.
The outrageous treatment of the Scottish at Westminster only proves the point. Scotland must have independence or Gaza will never be free...
Err The Scots
I almost typed Scotch - was trying to satirise the kind of rant that will be written into SNP leaflets.
Well, if you insist that some MPs are to be treated as second class MPs and not allowed to do what other MPs are permitted to do, then what do you expect?
The matter is still rumbling on - but the Speaker is running out of time to resolve it equitably.
Seems signatures have risen to 80 and talk of the SNP making a formal complaint about both Hoyle and Starmer to the Privileges Committee
I still do not think this is going anywhere, but it will linger on for some time yet
I genuinely hope the SNP succeed in defenestrating Hoyle and wind up with Speaker Rees Mogg. It's hard to pin down a Starmer resignation. Not even beer and curry levels of behaviour I don't suppose.
Hoyle is a good speaker who made an error and he did offer the SNP a new date
He has reneged on that which is not a good look but I expect he will carry on as will Starmer
It's not immediately apparent from the provinces what Lee Anderson has said which is wrong. The Palestine lobby appears to have a free pass in London - block Tower Bridge, light up parliament, do what you like boys, as long as you wave the little black white green and red flag.
(a) The Palestine lobby are not the same as Islamists. I've not see any Islamist banners or slogans at these marches. (If anything, the marchers are more associated with far left positions.)
(b) Anyone can protest through the streets of London. This country respects the right to protest. A few people on marches have broken the law and then been arrested -- this is appropriate and happens with some other protests (Just Stop Oil, Anti-Ulez).
(c) Whether or not you feel Khan should be doing something to reign in pro-Palestinian marches, how does that demonstrate, as per Anderson, that the Islamists control him? I see nothing to suggest that Khan is acting under duress, under someone else's control.
(d) There have been a bunch of marches, which have been disruptive in places, and there have been some cases of criminal behaviour. Does that mean the marchers, or Islamists, control London, as Anderson claims? I live in London. I've not see a single march, not been disrupted by any protests. I've seen a couple of pro-Palestinian stickers. A lot of pro-Palestinian protests demonstrates some strength of feeling, but not that anyone controls London. The marchers are not an occupying force.
(e) Jewish groups have praised Khan's actions in recent months. It would seem unlikely that they would do that were he controlled by Islamists.
Lee Anderson is being racist. He is equating broad Muslim support for Palestine with a specific political philosophy (Islamism). He jumps to Khan being controlled purely because Khan is also Muslim. His comments about London being controlled is hyperbole at best, and at worst sounds like those MAGA types who talk about parts of London being no-go areas where Sharia law applies.
I don't disagree with TSE often but I'd be very surprised to see Khan take legal action against Anderson. Political battles - even ones that descend into gutter slander - are best dealt with in the court of public opinion and at the ballot box. I suspect a majority of the public tend towards that kind of opinion too. Anderson has already paid a price for his words (though how high a price depends on whether he's allowed to return to the Tory fold before the election - if indeed he wants to).
We also need to be wary of politicians suing each other over rhetoric, and I think most politicians get that, even when there's a solid case to be made that a particular statement was unjustified and defamatory.
I think Anderson is doubling down which is where it could get rather messy.
I think one Doctor managed to get a grovelling apology out of Lee Anderson a few months (and some money donated to a lefty cause IIRC)
He couldn't really do anything else there. He had dug an elephant trap, then jumped into it himself. He perhaps made the Katie Hopkins mistake of quoting wrong alleged facts, rather than expressing inflammatory opinions.
He even had the example of "what happened to Katie", which would cost his first 5 years' pay at GBN.
The SNP have every right to carp that they have had one of their three debates spiked by the speaker. The Speaker was out of order.
However, two of the last two debates motioned by the SNP are all about Gaza, as will be the next. It strikes me that mischief making is more important than the domestic issues the SNP were elected to resolve.
It astounds me that intelligent PBers can't grasp that, at Westminster, thje SNP *were* elected to deal with UK foreign policy, inter aliis.
One debate out of three, fair enough. But three out of three! Do they not have a domestic agenda?
Don't be stupid Pete, that would actually mean doing something real. Their agenda is fill their pockets and get into the subsidised bars and restaurants and live high on the hog.
The outrageous treatment of the Scottish at Westminster only proves the point. Scotland must have independence or Gaza will never be free...
Err The Scots
I almost typed Scotch - was trying to satirise the kind of rant that will be written into SNP leaflets.
Well, if you insist that some MPs are to be treated as second class MPs and not allowed to do what other MPs are permitted to do, then what do you expect?
The matter is still rumbling on - but the Speaker is running out of time to resolve it equitably.
Its back to the aim. The SNP have no interest in Gaza other that political shenanigans. What they claim they wanted they have achieved - a call for an immediate ceasefire which is not what the government wanted. The absolute definition of what opposition days are there to try and achieve.
Nevertheless: the rules were broken in a way seriously inimical to the SNP and *any* non-majority party.
It astounds me that PBers, intelligent or otherwise, can't accept that the SNP hold the policy in good faith, given public opinion, and the unusual position of their leader. Of course, kneeing Labour int he nads is a good secondary aim, but in this instance you do need to do better than that.
Sorry, but can we define "policy". Look at Flynn's statement. He is talking as if there was not a motion passed for an immediate ceasefire, the same immediate ceasefire which is their stated policy.
The SNP are outraged because what a glorious opportunity to try and claim the English are treating them badly.
Politics is about working cross party to seek as much consensus as possible. They have no interest in that, and claim faux outrage and concern for Gaza. Bullshit.
The outrageous treatment of the Scottish at Westminster only proves the point. Scotland must have independence or Gaza will never be free...
Err The Scots
I almost typed Scotch - was trying to satirise the kind of rant that will be written into SNP leaflets.
Well, if you insist that some MPs are to be treated as second class MPs and not allowed to do what other MPs are permitted to do, then what do you expect?
The matter is still rumbling on - but the Speaker is running out of time to resolve it equitably.
Its back to the aim. The SNP have no interest in Gaza other that political shenanigans. What they claim they wanted they have achieved - a call for an immediate ceasefire which is not what the government wanted. The absolute definition of what opposition days are there to try and achieve.
I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating
Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that
However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI
Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change
Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom
<0.01% Yann LeCun one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta (less likely than an asteroid)
10% Vitalik Buterin Ethereum founder (Specifically means AI takeover)
10% Geoff Hinton one of three godfathers of AI (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)
14% Machine learning researchers (From 2022, median value is 5%)
15% Lina Khan head of FTC
10-20% Paul Christiano (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)
10-25% Dario Amodei CEO of Anthropic
20% Yoshua Bengio one of three godfathers of AI
20-30% Elon Musk CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X
5-50% Emmet Shear Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI
30% AI Safety Researchers (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)
33% Scott Alexander Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten
35% Eli Lifland AI engineer (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)
50% Holden Karnofsky Executive Director of Open Philanthropy
10-90% Jan Leike alignment lead at OpenAI
60% Zvi Mowshowitz AI researcher
70% Daniel Kokotajlo OpenAI researcher & forecaster
>80% Dan Hendrycks Head of Center for AI Safety
>99% Eliezer Yudkowsky Founder of MIRI
It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here
Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago
To be fair you never heard young people banging on about the dangers of what.three.words either when you were assuring us that would be technological game changer.
I'm old enough to remember Leon repeatedly assuring us, five years ago, that China would be the biggest economy in the world in five years and any PBer who questioned his forecast was an idiot.
(I can also remember his more his more recent projection that Liz Truss would "surprise on the upside", but it would be ungentlemanly of me to salt the wound.)
Impossible. Leon wasn't here five years ago!
Ha
Good job he's not called SeanT.
I just asked the Internet, and it says "séant" is polite slang in French for "arse".
eg "Les plus précieuses de ces dames s'étaient prémunies du confort spartiate des sièges métalliques en protégeant leur séant d'un coussin."
Don't think my Duolingo lessons have covered all that yet
The outrageous treatment of the Scottish at Westminster only proves the point. Scotland must have independence or Gaza will never be free...
Err The Scots
I almost typed Scotch - was trying to satirise the kind of rant that will be written into SNP leaflets.
Well, if you insist that some MPs are to be treated as second class MPs and not allowed to do what other MPs are permitted to do, then what do you expect?
The matter is still rumbling on - but the Speaker is running out of time to resolve it equitably.
The Westminster mob will never elevate Scottish representatives as high as 2nd class Carnyx.
The path is now very clear for 30p Lee. Defect to UFUK. Noisily. Denouncing the Tories and everything they don't stand for. Foam on about "proper British values" which are anything but. Become the totem for the angry gammonite WWC. Lead the UFUK block in the Commons which will be bigger than the LibDem block as he shows the way for other angry doomed Tories. With a GBeebies show as a pulpit every week. Winning his seat at the GE.
Or, don't. Offer up an insincere apology and get the Tory whip back, only to get demolished at the election.
Didn't Tice offer him £400,000 to join ?
The rancour in politics is hard to witness and it is only getting worse
I did suggest yesterday that post GE the right may come together probably taking over the conservative party
Nothing in the last few days has done anything to change my view
Mind you Starmer has his own issues with a Savanta poll just now saying that 40% think he has an antisemitic problem in his party
The SNP have every right to carp that they have had one of their three debates spiked by the speaker. The Speaker was out of order.
However, two of the last two debates motioned by the SNP are all about Gaza, as will be the next. It strikes me that mischief making is more important than the domestic issues the SNP were elected to resolve.
It astounds me that intelligent PBers can't grasp that, at Westminster, thje SNP *were* elected to deal with UK foreign policy, inter aliis.
One debate out of three, fair enough. But three out of three! Do they not have a domestic policy?
They didn't even get the last *debate*. And theyd have debated green energy as well, if Labour hadn't wrecked the day. And the last opposition day was pre Gaza, wasn't it? Are you thinking of the King's Speech debate?
Mind you it seems to have all worked in their favour. Labour plummeting by 4 points and an uptick in the SNP's fortunes.
And less of the intelligent PBer please!
The Deltapoll poll has Labour back into the 43-45 range that every other poll of theirs this year has landed them in, so I'm not sure I'd call that a 'plummet'.
By contrast, their share of 23% for the Tories is by some way their worst for Team Blue in 2024; all the rest are 27-29.
The path is now very clear for 30p Lee. Defect to UFUK. Noisily. Denouncing the Tories and everything they don't stand for. Foam on about "proper British values" which are anything but. Become the totem for the angry gammonite WWC. Lead the UFUK block in the Commons which will be bigger than the LibDem block as he shows the way for other angry doomed Tories. With a GBeebies show as a pulpit every week. Winning his seat at the GE.
Or, don't. Offer up an insincere apology and get the Tory whip back, only to get demolished at the election.
Didn't Tice offer him £400,000 to join ?
The rancour in politics is hard to witness and it is only getting worse
I did suggest yesterday that post GE the right may come together probably taking over the conservative party
Nothing in the last few days has done anything to change my view
Mind you Starmer has his own issues with a Savanta poll just now saying that 40% think he has an antisemitic problem in his party
The path is now very clear for 30p Lee. Defect to UFUK. Noisily. Denouncing the Tories and everything they don't stand for. Foam on about "proper British values" which are anything but. Become the totem for the angry gammonite WWC. Lead the UFUK block in the Commons which will be bigger than the LibDem block as he shows the way for other angry doomed Tories. With a GBeebies show as a pulpit every week. Winning his seat at the GE.
Or, don't. Offer up an insincere apology and get the Tory whip back, only to get demolished at the election.
Didn't Tice offer him £400,000 to join ?
The rancour in politics is hard to witness and it is only getting worse
I did suggest yesterday that post GE the right may come together probably taking over the conservative party
Nothing in the last few days has done anything to change my view
Mind you Starmer has his own issues with a Savanta poll just now saying that 40% think he has an antisemitic problem in his party
The outrageous treatment of the Scottish at Westminster only proves the point. Scotland must have independence or Gaza will never be free...
Err The Scots
I almost typed Scotch - was trying to satirise the kind of rant that will be written into SNP leaflets.
Well, if you insist that some MPs are to be treated as second class MPs and not allowed to do what other MPs are permitted to do, then what do you expect?
The matter is still rumbling on - but the Speaker is running out of time to resolve it equitably.
Its back to the aim. The SNP have no interest in Gaza other that political shenanigans. What they claim they wanted they have achieved - a call for an immediate ceasefire which is not what the government wanted. The absolute definition of what opposition days are there to try and achieve.
Nevertheless: the rules were broken in a way seriously inimical to the SNP and *any* non-majority party.
It astounds me that PBers, intelligent or otherwise, can't accept that the SNP hold the policy in good faith, given public opinion, and the unusual position of their leader. Of course, kneeing Labour int he nads is a good secondary aim, but in this instance you do need to do better than that.
Sorry, but can we define "policy". Look at Flynn's statement. He is talking as if there was not a motion passed for an immediate ceasefire, the same immediate ceasefire which is their stated policy.
The SNP are outraged because what a glorious opportunity to try and claim the English are treating them badly.
Politics is about working cross party to seek as much consensus as possible. They have no interest in that, and claim faux outrage and concern for Gaza. Bullshit.
Nowt sharn, yourself, old fruit, if I may so respond. Much of the argument on here - like yours - claims that the primary aim is to be horrible to Labour, break up Britain, etc. etc. and therefore [edit] by implicaiton (in many cases, not nec. yours) that it's legitimate to ignore and deny the SNP the normal functioning of Westminster. Which is exactly what has happened and how it's being justified. The result was achieved using an illicit mode, which seriously damages the SNP's ability to function at Westminster. As well as the LDs. You should be able to see that.
I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating
Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that
However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI
Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change
Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom
<0.01% Yann LeCun one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta (less likely than an asteroid)
10% Vitalik Buterin Ethereum founder (Specifically means AI takeover)
10% Geoff Hinton one of three godfathers of AI (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)
14% Machine learning researchers (From 2022, median value is 5%)
15% Lina Khan head of FTC
10-20% Paul Christiano (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)
10-25% Dario Amodei CEO of Anthropic
20% Yoshua Bengio one of three godfathers of AI
20-30% Elon Musk CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X
5-50% Emmet Shear Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI
30% AI Safety Researchers (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)
33% Scott Alexander Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten
35% Eli Lifland AI engineer (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)
50% Holden Karnofsky Executive Director of Open Philanthropy
10-90% Jan Leike alignment lead at OpenAI
60% Zvi Mowshowitz AI researcher
70% Daniel Kokotajlo OpenAI researcher & forecaster
>80% Dan Hendrycks Head of Center for AI Safety
>99% Eliezer Yudkowsky Founder of MIRI
It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here
Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago
I'd be less worried about what AI can do for itself and more worried about what the likes of Putin can do with it, in league with the likes of Musk.
It will be impossible to run a democracy if we cannot have any kind of common understanding of facts. Or, put another way, if you credibly control the facts, you control everything else.
How do you suppose the doom will come about? Step back from Watching Terminator films.
"Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom"
Can we not just flick the power off and on again?
I imagine the doom of democracy and freedom will come about from hostile regimes and ultra-rich owners manipulating social media platforms with AI content to drive public opinion towards authoritarian opinions, leading to the election of politicians sympathetic to (and wholly owned by) the publishing owners.
If you think people are too suggestible to be trusted, then do you really believe in democracy? I would say no, and maybe it's better to be honest about it.
Oh, don't be ridiculous.
Have you seen the quality of AI images now? This isn't about being 'suggestible'; it's about it being literally impossible to know what's true, especially if people only get their news from a small number of websites, where feed is deliberately skewed to the political ends of their owners and personalised to the user. It's *way* more sophisticated and nuanced than old-style newspapers.
The outrageous treatment of the Scottish at Westminster only proves the point. Scotland must have independence or Gaza will never be free...
Err The Scots
I almost typed Scotch - was trying to satirise the kind of rant that will be written into SNP leaflets.
Well, if you insist that some MPs are to be treated as second class MPs and not allowed to do what other MPs are permitted to do, then what do you expect?
The matter is still rumbling on - but the Speaker is running out of time to resolve it equitably.
Its back to the aim. The SNP have no interest in Gaza other that political shenanigans. What they claim they wanted they have achieved - a call for an immediate ceasefire which is not what the government wanted. The absolute definition of what opposition days are there to try and achieve.
Nevertheless: the rules were broken in a way seriously inimical to the SNP and *any* non-majority party.
It astounds me that PBers, intelligent or otherwise, can't accept that the SNP hold the policy in good faith, given public opinion, and the unusual position of their leader. Of course, kneeing Labour int he nads is a good secondary aim, but in this instance you do need to do better than that.
Sorry, but can we define "policy". Look at Flynn's statement. He is talking as if there was not a motion passed for an immediate ceasefire, the same immediate ceasefire which is their stated policy.
The SNP are outraged because what a glorious opportunity to try and claim the English are treating them badly.
Politics is about working cross party to seek as much consensus as possible. They have no interest in that, and claim faux outrage and concern for Gaza. Bullshit.
The path is now very clear for 30p Lee. Defect to UFUK. Noisily. Denouncing the Tories and everything they don't stand for. Foam on about "proper British values" which are anything but. Become the totem for the angry gammonite WWC. Lead the UFUK block in the Commons which will be bigger than the LibDem block as he shows the way for other angry doomed Tories. With a GBeebies show as a pulpit every week. Winning his seat at the GE.
Or, don't. Offer up an insincere apology and get the Tory whip back, only to get demolished at the election.
Didn't Tice offer him £400,000 to join ?
The rancour in politics is hard to witness and it is only getting worse
I did suggest yesterday that post GE the right may come together probably taking over the conservative party
Nothing in the last few days has done anything to change my view
Mind you Starmer has his own issues with a Savanta poll just now saying that 40% think he has an antisemitic problem in his party
Given the current Govt is the most left wing of my lifetime, I do hope the centre right takes back control of the Tory party!
People keep saying that but then don’t provide examples to back it up… so what makes this Tory Government left wing?
People keep asking me this then totally ignoring me when I provide concrete examples:
- Largest set of tax rises since the war - Huge growth in bureaucracy i.e. civil service - Govt paying part of everyone's energy bills - Huge growth in NHS spending
Does anyone actually rate/support 30p Lee? He seems to be a laughing stock in his own party, and indeed his own seat of Ashfield.
What exactly is the point of him?
He certainly has a constituency. I follow Khan on FB and every single thing he posts, however anodyne, has a legion of posts underneath it from various angry looking elderly white people saying that they no longer recognise London, would never go to London because it isn't safe, and accusing Khan of being some kind of Muslim extremist or hater of white people, generally peppered with grammatical errors and spelling mistakes. Of course they may all be fake profiles created by the Russians but I doubt it.
The outrageous treatment of the Scottish at Westminster only proves the point. Scotland must have independence or Gaza will never be free...
Err The Scots
I almost typed Scotch - was trying to satirise the kind of rant that will be written into SNP leaflets.
Well, if you insist that some MPs are to be treated as second class MPs and not allowed to do what other MPs are permitted to do, then what do you expect?
The matter is still rumbling on - but the Speaker is running out of time to resolve it equitably.
Its back to the aim. The SNP have no interest in Gaza other that political shenanigans. What they claim they wanted they have achieved - a call for an immediate ceasefire which is not what the government wanted. The absolute definition of what opposition days are there to try and achieve.
Nevertheless: the rules were broken in a way seriously inimical to the SNP and *any* non-majority party.
It astounds me that PBers, intelligent or otherwise, can't accept that the SNP hold the policy in good faith, given public opinion, and the unusual position of their leader. Of course, kneeing Labour int he nads is a good secondary aim, but in this instance you do need to do better than that.
Sorry, but can we define "policy". Look at Flynn's statement. He is talking as if there was not a motion passed for an immediate ceasefire, the same immediate ceasefire which is their stated policy.
The SNP are outraged because what a glorious opportunity to try and claim the English are treating them badly.
Politics is about working cross party to seek as much consensus as possible. They have no interest in that, and claim faux outrage and concern for Gaza. Bullshit.
Nowt sharn, yourself, old fruit, if I may so respond. Much of the argument on here - like yours - claims that the primary aim is to be horrible to Labour, break up Britain, etc. etc. and therefore [edit] by implicaiton (in many cases, not nec. yours) that it's legitimate to ignore and deny the SNP the normal functioning of Westminster. Which is exactly what has happened and how it's being justified. The result was achieved using an illicit mode, which seriously damages the SNP's ability to function at Westminster. As well as the LDs. You should be able to see that.
I actually agree with you and indeed my wife, who is a Scot as you know, thought Stephen Flynn was excellent and had a genuine complaint
Furthermore she is not impressed with Sky's report the Speaker has reneged on his promise to the Scots
I would just add this is not about Gaza as she doesn't really understand the detail, but fairness to Scotland
With Hungary's grudging yes, Sweden now joins Finland in Nato. The length of the Russia-Nato border has jumped fourfold since Putin's invasion. Yet people glibly say that Putin is winning. Strategically he's still losing.
So Boris was right when he said to Putin that going into his neighbouring states meant more NATO, not less?
Boris was and is an ethically and morally bankrupt individual but for some reason actually became a half-decent leader on this particular issue.
Maybe it was Churchill cosplay and stopped clocks. Or maybe people are complex.
Part Chuchill cosplay; part Johnson's natural laziness. I imagine on this issue, he got good advice from the Foreign Office, Defence and MI6, and saw the opportunity to play his hero. He might even believe in it, inasfar as he believes in anything beyond himself.
He's clearly not thought it through fully though, or considers it secondary, otherwise he wouldn't be palling up with Trump and the Republicans who are doing all they can to let Russia win.
What good would it do to alienate the people who will likely control the US executive within months?
There's a very big difference between working with whoever's elected, and openly advocating for one side in advance.
I accept that going round saying 'Trump's a twat' may not end well for Britain if Trump is re-elected and will play badly in America too (even though Trump is a twat). But diplomatic slience shouldn't affect essential policy.
kamski - In my semi-informed opinion, Trump probably would not have succeeded if he had attempted to continue making agreements with Putin to continue reducing nuclear weapons. But he should have tried, and, by now, the US has had enough experience in such agreements that we have experts who could have conducted such negotiations.
I have thought long and hard about how we could have kept reasonable relations with Putin's Russia, and have come up with no conclusion on a strategy that might have succeeded.
The path is now very clear for 30p Lee. Defect to UFUK. Noisily. Denouncing the Tories and everything they don't stand for. Foam on about "proper British values" which are anything but. Become the totem for the angry gammonite WWC. Lead the UFUK block in the Commons which will be bigger than the LibDem block as he shows the way for other angry doomed Tories. With a GBeebies show as a pulpit every week. Winning his seat at the GE.
Or, don't. Offer up an insincere apology and get the Tory whip back, only to get demolished at the election.
Didn't Tice offer him £400,000 to join ?
The rancour in politics is hard to witness and it is only getting worse
I did suggest yesterday that post GE the right may come together probably taking over the conservative party
Nothing in the last few days has done anything to change my view
Mind you Starmer has his own issues with a Savanta poll just now saying that 40% think he has an antisemitic problem in his party
Given the current Govt is the most left wing of my lifetime, I do hope the centre right takes back control of the Tory party!
People keep saying that but then don’t provide examples to back it up… so what makes this Tory Government left wing?
People keep asking me this then totally ignoring me when I provide concrete examples:
- Largest set of tax rises since the war - Huge growth in bureaucracy i.e. civil service - Govt paying part of everyone's energy bills - Huge growth in NHS spending
Tax rises - yep but where is the money going because everything seems to be falling apart
Sorry huge growth in bureaucracy - every department has less staff than before so I would want to see examples
Well energy prices did double in very short order and it was subsidies the prices or a lot of the energy firms going bankrupt
Isnt the NHS related to the age of the population
So again I’m struggling to see the left part of the equation because yep taxes are up but I don’t see the spending
PG Wodehouse's remark about rays of sunshine applies, methinks.
Isn't that a bit, erm, unsound in the current political climate?
In any case the SNP have been done out of one of their three days a year. Still no news about replacing it. And this isn't a great look from Labour, who are lucky Mr Anderson has preempted the news.
Wodehouse does not discuss how justified is the wrath when he says: "It is never difficult to distinguish between a Scotsman with a grievance and a ray of sunshine."
(Blandings Castle and Elsewhere (1935) ‘The Custody of the Pumpkin’)
I suspect it makes no difference. And while there have been lots of critics on lots of grounds, no-one has ever suggested he is actually wrong, for the good reason that he isn't.
I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating
Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that
However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI
Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change
Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom
<0.01% Yann LeCun one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta (less likely than an asteroid)
10% Vitalik Buterin Ethereum founder (Specifically means AI takeover)
10% Geoff Hinton one of three godfathers of AI (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)
14% Machine learning researchers (From 2022, median value is 5%)
15% Lina Khan head of FTC
10-20% Paul Christiano (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)
10-25% Dario Amodei CEO of Anthropic
20% Yoshua Bengio one of three godfathers of AI
20-30% Elon Musk CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X
5-50% Emmet Shear Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI
30% AI Safety Researchers (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)
33% Scott Alexander Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten
35% Eli Lifland AI engineer (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)
50% Holden Karnofsky Executive Director of Open Philanthropy
10-90% Jan Leike alignment lead at OpenAI
60% Zvi Mowshowitz AI researcher
70% Daniel Kokotajlo OpenAI researcher & forecaster
>80% Dan Hendrycks Head of Center for AI Safety
>99% Eliezer Yudkowsky Founder of MIRI
It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here
Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago
Genuine general AI is what the late, great Iain M Banks called an out of context problem. He explained in Excession that societies tend to reach an out of context problem in the same way that a sentence reaches a full stop. On current trends and with current safeguards and controls this seems inevitable. The only uncertainty is the timing.
The path is now very clear for 30p Lee. Defect to UFUK. Noisily. Denouncing the Tories and everything they don't stand for. Foam on about "proper British values" which are anything but. Become the totem for the angry gammonite WWC. Lead the UFUK block in the Commons which will be bigger than the LibDem block as he shows the way for other angry doomed Tories. With a GBeebies show as a pulpit every week. Winning his seat at the GE.
Or, don't. Offer up an insincere apology and get the Tory whip back, only to get demolished at the election.
Didn't Tice offer him £400,000 to join ?
The rancour in politics is hard to witness and it is only getting worse
I did suggest yesterday that post GE the right may come together probably taking over the conservative party
Nothing in the last few days has done anything to change my view
Mind you Starmer has his own issues with a Savanta poll just now saying that 40% think he has an antisemitic problem in his party
Given the current Govt is the most left wing of my lifetime, I do hope the centre right takes back control of the Tory party!
People keep saying that but then don’t provide examples to back it up… so what makes this Tory Government left wing?
People keep asking me this then totally ignoring me when I provide concrete examples:
- Largest set of tax rises since the war - Huge growth in bureaucracy i.e. civil service - Govt paying part of everyone's energy bills - Huge growth in NHS spending
Tax rises - yep but where is the money going because everything seems to be falling apart
Sorry huge growth in bureaucracy - every department has less staff than before so I would want to see examples
Well energy prices did double in very short order and it was subsidies the prices or a lot of the energy firms going bankrupt
Isnt the NHS related to the age of the population
So again I’m struggling to see the left part of the equation because yep taxes are up but I don’t see the spending
There has of course been an increase in bureaucracy because of Brexit. But as you point out, increased spending is mostly ageing related. Plus higher debt interest payments. Most other stuff is down, hence everything being shit. What a time to be a taxpayer and user of public services!
The outrageous treatment of the Scottish at Westminster only proves the point. Scotland must have independence or Gaza will never be free...
Err The Scots
I almost typed Scotch - was trying to satirise the kind of rant that will be written into SNP leaflets.
Well, if you insist that some MPs are to be treated as second class MPs and not allowed to do what other MPs are permitted to do, then what do you expect?
The matter is still rumbling on - but the Speaker is running out of time to resolve it equitably.
Its back to the aim. The SNP have no interest in Gaza other that political shenanigans. What they claim they wanted they have achieved - a call for an immediate ceasefire which is not what the government wanted. The absolute definition of what opposition days are there to try and achieve.
Nevertheless: the rules were broken in a way seriously inimical to the SNP and *any* non-majority party.
It astounds me that PBers, intelligent or otherwise, can't accept that the SNP hold the policy in good faith, given public opinion, and the unusual position of their leader. Of course, kneeing Labour int he nads is a good secondary aim, but in this instance you do need to do better than that.
Sorry, but can we define "policy". Look at Flynn's statement. He is talking as if there was not a motion passed for an immediate ceasefire, the same immediate ceasefire which is their stated policy.
The SNP are outraged because what a glorious opportunity to try and claim the English are treating them badly.
Politics is about working cross party to seek as much consensus as possible. They have no interest in that, and claim faux outrage and concern for Gaza. Bullshit.
Nowt sharn, yourself, old fruit, if I may so respond. Much of the argument on here - like yours - claims that the primary aim is to be horrible to Labour, break up Britain, etc. etc. and therefore [edit] by implicaiton (in many cases, not nec. yours) that it's legitimate to ignore and deny the SNP the normal functioning of Westminster. Which is exactly what has happened and how it's being justified. The result was achieved using an illicit mode, which seriously damages the SNP's ability to function at Westminster. As well as the LDs. You should be able to see that.
I actually agree with you and indeed my wife, who is a Scot as you know, thought Stephen Flynn was excellent and had a genuine complaint
Furthermore she is not impressed with Sky's report the Speaker has reneged on his promise to the Scots
I would just add this is not about Gaza as she doesn't really understand the detail, but fairness to Scotland
And both my wife and I are unionists
I think the Speaker has made another unforced error here. He has been very flat-footed this week.
The path is now very clear for 30p Lee. Defect to UFUK. Noisily. Denouncing the Tories and everything they don't stand for. Foam on about "proper British values" which are anything but. Become the totem for the angry gammonite WWC. Lead the UFUK block in the Commons which will be bigger than the LibDem block as he shows the way for other angry doomed Tories. With a GBeebies show as a pulpit every week. Winning his seat at the GE.
Or, don't. Offer up an insincere apology and get the Tory whip back, only to get demolished at the election.
Didn't Tice offer him £400,000 to join ?
The rancour in politics is hard to witness and it is only getting worse
I did suggest yesterday that post GE the right may come together probably taking over the conservative party
Nothing in the last few days has done anything to change my view
Mind you Starmer has his own issues with a Savanta poll just now saying that 40% think he has an antisemitic problem in his party
Does anyone actually rate/support 30p Lee? He seems to be a laughing stock in his own party, and indeed his own seat of Ashfield.
What exactly is the point of him?
He certainly has a constituency. I follow Khan on FB and every single thing he posts, however anodyne, has a legion of posts underneath it from various angry looking elderly white people saying that they no longer recognise London, would never go to London because it isn't safe, and accusing Khan of being some kind of Muslim extremist or hater of white people, generally peppered with grammatical errors and spelling mistakes. Of course they may all be fake profiles created by the Russians but I doubt it.
We are just seeing the development of the next front in British politics developing, in anticipation of a Labour government.
A large subset of 2019 Tory voters might not vote for the Tories again, but they are I suspect highly persuadable to vote for a new right wing brand over the Labour Party, if given the opportunity.
The 2019 realignment might not have developed to the Tories' advantage, but those voters are still out there, and they're not Starmerites.
The path is now very clear for 30p Lee. Defect to UFUK. Noisily. Denouncing the Tories and everything they don't stand for. Foam on about "proper British values" which are anything but. Become the totem for the angry gammonite WWC. Lead the UFUK block in the Commons which will be bigger than the LibDem block as he shows the way for other angry doomed Tories. With a GBeebies show as a pulpit every week. Winning his seat at the GE.
Or, don't. Offer up an insincere apology and get the Tory whip back, only to get demolished at the election.
Didn't Tice offer him £400,000 to join ?
The rancour in politics is hard to witness and it is only getting worse
I did suggest yesterday that post GE the right may come together probably taking over the conservative party
Nothing in the last few days has done anything to change my view
Mind you Starmer has his own issues with a Savanta poll just now saying that 40% think he has an antisemitic problem in his party
Given the current Govt is the most left wing of my lifetime, I do hope the centre right takes back control of the Tory party!
People keep saying that but then don’t provide examples to back it up… so what makes this Tory Government left wing?
People keep asking me this then totally ignoring me when I provide concrete examples:
- Largest set of tax rises since the war - Huge growth in bureaucracy i.e. civil service - Govt paying part of everyone's energy bills - Huge growth in NHS spending
Well, I agree with you regarding energy bills. I think that kind of government support is dumb and means that energy demand doesn't fall as much as it should.
But are you sure regarding bureaucracy? It is worth remembering that - because spending on the NHS and pensions is baked in to keep rising - pretty much every other department is seeing real terms reductions in spending.
And tax rises? Are you sure there too? The early Thatcher budgets were massively tax raising as she closed the big hole in the finances left by Callaghan. (The charts are here: https://obr.uk/box/the-uks-tax-burden-in-historical-and-international-context/ - and '79 to '83 saw a 5 percentage point increase in tax take as a % of GDP against 2 percentage points in the the last few years.)
The outrageous treatment of the Scottish at Westminster only proves the point. Scotland must have independence or Gaza will never be free...
Err The Scots
I almost typed Scotch - was trying to satirise the kind of rant that will be written into SNP leaflets.
Well, if you insist that some MPs are to be treated as second class MPs and not allowed to do what other MPs are permitted to do, then what do you expect?
The matter is still rumbling on - but the Speaker is running out of time to resolve it equitably.
Its back to the aim. The SNP have no interest in Gaza other that political shenanigans. What they claim they wanted they have achieved - a call for an immediate ceasefire which is not what the government wanted. The absolute definition of what opposition days are there to try and achieve.
Nevertheless: the rules were broken in a way seriously inimical to the SNP and *any* non-majority party.
It astounds me that PBers, intelligent or otherwise, can't accept that the SNP hold the policy in good faith, given public opinion, and the unusual position of their leader. Of course, kneeing Labour int he nads is a good secondary aim, but in this instance you do need to do better than that.
Sorry, but can we define "policy". Look at Flynn's statement. He is talking as if there was not a motion passed for an immediate ceasefire, the same immediate ceasefire which is their stated policy.
The SNP are outraged because what a glorious opportunity to try and claim the English are treating them badly.
Politics is about working cross party to seek as much consensus as possible. They have no interest in that, and claim faux outrage and concern for Gaza. Bullshit.
Nowt sharn, yourself, old fruit, if I may so respond. Much of the argument on here - like yours - claims that the primary aim is to be horrible to Labour, break up Britain, etc. etc. and therefore [edit] by implicaiton (in many cases, not nec. yours) that it's legitimate to ignore and deny the SNP the normal functioning of Westminster. Which is exactly what has happened and how it's being justified. The result was achieved using an illicit mode, which seriously damages the SNP's ability to function at Westminster. As well as the LDs. You should be able to see that.
I actually agree with you and indeed my wife, who is a Scot as you know, thought Stephen Flynn was excellent and had a genuine complaint
Furthermore she is not impressed with Sky's report the Speaker has reneged on his promise to the Scots
I would just add this is not about Gaza as she doesn't really understand the detail, but fairness to Scotland
And both my wife and I are unionists
I think the Speaker has made another unforced error here. He has been very flat-footed this week.
It does seem that the Speaker was willing to say literally anything to survive last week and now he thinks he's safe he's reengaging on what was promised.
Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead remains at twenty-one points in the latest results from Deltapoll. Con 23% (-4) Lab 44% (-4) Lib Dem 11% (+3) Other 21% (+3) Fieldwork: 23rd - 26th February 2024 Sample: 1,490 GB adults (Changes from 16th - 19th February 2024)
The path is now very clear for 30p Lee. Defect to UFUK. Noisily. Denouncing the Tories and everything they don't stand for. Foam on about "proper British values" which are anything but. Become the totem for the angry gammonite WWC. Lead the UFUK block in the Commons which will be bigger than the LibDem block as he shows the way for other angry doomed Tories. With a GBeebies show as a pulpit every week. Winning his seat at the GE.
Or, don't. Offer up an insincere apology and get the Tory whip back, only to get demolished at the election.
Didn't Tice offer him £400,000 to join ?
The rancour in politics is hard to witness and it is only getting worse
I did suggest yesterday that post GE the right may come together probably taking over the conservative party
Nothing in the last few days has done anything to change my view
Mind you Starmer has his own issues with a Savanta poll just now saying that 40% think he has an antisemitic problem in his party
Given the current Govt is the most left wing of my lifetime, I do hope the centre right takes back control of the Tory party!
People keep saying that but then don’t provide examples to back it up… so what makes this Tory Government left wing?
People keep asking me this then totally ignoring me when I provide concrete examples:
- Largest set of tax rises since the war - Huge growth in bureaucracy i.e. civil service - Govt paying part of everyone's energy bills - Huge growth in NHS spending
Tax rises - yep but where is the money going because everything seems to be falling apart
Sorry huge growth in bureaucracy - every department has less staff than before so I would want to see examples
Well energy prices did double in very short order and it was subsidies the prices or a lot of the energy firms going bankrupt
Isnt the NHS related to the age of the population
So again I’m struggling to see the left part of the equation because yep taxes are up but I don’t see the spending
There has of course been an increase in bureaucracy because of Brexit. But as you point out, increased spending is mostly ageing related. Plus higher debt interest payments. Most other stuff is down, hence everything being shit. What a time to be a taxpayer and user of public services!
Also, some of the ruses that kept tax and spending down over the last few decades (privatisation, North Sea, sweating capital assets beyond their expected life) have run out of road, more or less at once.
We've had decades of something for nothing, and students of heist movies know what that tends to be followed by...
Does anyone actually rate/support 30p Lee? He seems to be a laughing stock in his own party, and indeed his own seat of Ashfield.
What exactly is the point of him?
He certainly has a constituency. I follow Khan on FB and every single thing he posts, however anodyne, has a legion of posts underneath it from various angry looking elderly white people saying that they no longer recognise London, would never go to London because it isn't safe, and accusing Khan of being some kind of Muslim extremist or hater of white people, generally peppered with grammatical errors and spelling mistakes. Of course they may all be fake profiles created by the Russians but I doubt it.
No, they're real, but their numbers are still relatively small. It's a relief that they'd never visit London, though.
The problem with Anderson 'and his mates' is that they are absolutely convinced that they are the voice of the English white working class, and that for the vast majority of the WWC what he says is just common sense.
And that's why the far right will fail. The white working class is much more diverse in values and attitudes than Anderson thinks. Hooray.
Albeit the Muslim population in London is 15% ie over double the 6% Muslim population UK wide hence the Muslim vote is stronger there than it is nationally.
Having said that, Anderson's comments were clearly offensive and it is right he was suspended. However I expect in white working class, strong Leave Ashfield many will agree with his comments and if CCHQ deselect him as a parliamentary candidate I would expect him to switch to ReformUK
Does anyone actually rate/support 30p Lee? He seems to be a laughing stock in his own party, and indeed his own seat of Ashfield.
What exactly is the point of him?
He certainly has a constituency. I follow Khan on FB and every single thing he posts, however anodyne, has a legion of posts underneath it from various angry looking elderly white people saying that they no longer recognise London, would never go to London because it isn't safe, and accusing Khan of being some kind of Muslim extremist or hater of white people, generally peppered with grammatical errors and spelling mistakes. Of course they may all be fake profiles created by the Russians but I doubt it.
We are just seeing the development of the next front in British politics developing, in anticipation of a Labour government.
A large subset of 2019 Tory voters might not vote for the Tories again, but they are I suspect highly persuadable to vote for a new right wing brand over the Labour Party, if given the opportunity.
The 2019 realignment might not have developed to the Tories' advantage, but those voters are still out there, and they're not Starmerites.
I note Susan Hall uses the approved Conservative Party jargon of "anti-Muslim hatred" rather than saying "Islamophobia". God knows why they feel the need to quibble over this. Kemi Badenoch tried explaining.
Anti-Semitism and Anti-Zionism are two separate terms, why not two terms on the opposite side of the "debate"?
The outrageous treatment of the Scottish at Westminster only proves the point. Scotland must have independence or Gaza will never be free...
Err The Scots
I almost typed Scotch - was trying to satirise the kind of rant that will be written into SNP leaflets.
Well, if you insist that some MPs are to be treated as second class MPs and not allowed to do what other MPs are permitted to do, then what do you expect?
The matter is still rumbling on - but the Speaker is running out of time to resolve it equitably.
Its back to the aim. The SNP have no interest in Gaza other that political shenanigans. What they claim they wanted they have achieved - a call for an immediate ceasefire which is not what the government wanted. The absolute definition of what opposition days are there to try and achieve.
Nevertheless: the rules were broken in a way seriously inimical to the SNP and *any* non-majority party.
It astounds me that PBers, intelligent or otherwise, can't accept that the SNP hold the policy in good faith, given public opinion, and the unusual position of their leader. Of course, kneeing Labour int he nads is a good secondary aim, but in this instance you do need to do better than that.
Sorry, but can we define "policy". Look at Flynn's statement. He is talking as if there was not a motion passed for an immediate ceasefire, the same immediate ceasefire which is their stated policy.
The SNP are outraged because what a glorious opportunity to try and claim the English are treating them badly.
Politics is about working cross party to seek as much consensus as possible. They have no interest in that, and claim faux outrage and concern for Gaza. Bullshit.
The thing is, the SNP have three days and can do what they want with those debates as ultimately if their electors aren’t impressed they will deal with it at the ballot box. Otherwise the key is that they were robbed of their rights for political shenanigans and should be allowed a do-over.
If we are going to start trying to control what opposition parties do with their time in parliament because we don’t agree with it it defeats the object of an opposition.
And you can’t on one hand want SMP representation in Parliament and then decide that you want that representation but only if they keep quiet about foreign affairs etc. Their voice on such matters are every bit as valid as any other party in Parliament.
They have every right to be angry whether you agree with their aim or not.
The path is now very clear for 30p Lee. Defect to UFUK. Noisily. Denouncing the Tories and everything they don't stand for. Foam on about "proper British values" which are anything but. Become the totem for the angry gammonite WWC. Lead the UFUK block in the Commons which will be bigger than the LibDem block as he shows the way for other angry doomed Tories. With a GBeebies show as a pulpit every week. Winning his seat at the GE.
Or, don't. Offer up an insincere apology and get the Tory whip back, only to get demolished at the election.
Didn't Tice offer him £400,000 to join ?
The rancour in politics is hard to witness and it is only getting worse
I did suggest yesterday that post GE the right may come together probably taking over the conservative party
Nothing in the last few days has done anything to change my view
Mind you Starmer has his own issues with a Savanta poll just now saying that 40% think he has an antisemitic problem in his party
Given the current Govt is the most left wing of my lifetime, I do hope the centre right takes back control of the Tory party!
People keep saying that but then don’t provide examples to back it up… so what makes this Tory Government left wing?
People keep asking me this then totally ignoring me when I provide concrete examples:
- Largest set of tax rises since the war - Huge growth in bureaucracy i.e. civil service - Govt paying part of everyone's energy bills - Huge growth in NHS spending
Is it that the current Govt is left wing (for the CP) or is it because it has been constantly losing narratives against the left, its opponents, the opposition, the public sector etc so as to appear left wing?
The SNP have every right to carp that they have had one of their three debates spiked by the speaker. The Speaker was out of order.
However, two of the last two debates motioned by the SNP are all about Gaza, as will be the next. It strikes me that mischief making is more important than the domestic issues the SNP were elected to resolve.
It astounds me that intelligent PBers can't grasp that, at Westminster, thje SNP *were* elected to deal with UK foreign policy, inter aliis.
One debate out of three, fair enough. But three out of three! Do they not have a domestic agenda?
Don't be stupid Pete, that would actually mean doing something real. Their agenda is fill their pockets and get into the subsidised bars and restaurants and live high on the hog.
I take you weren't Marching up and down John Finnie Street draped in a Palestinian flag last weekend Malcolm. Call yourself a Scottish patriot?
I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating
Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that
However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI
Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change
Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom
<0.01% Yann LeCun one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta (less likely than an asteroid)
10% Vitalik Buterin Ethereum founder (Specifically means AI takeover)
10% Geoff Hinton one of three godfathers of AI (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)
14% Machine learning researchers (From 2022, median value is 5%)
15% Lina Khan head of FTC
10-20% Paul Christiano (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)
10-25% Dario Amodei CEO of Anthropic
20% Yoshua Bengio one of three godfathers of AI
20-30% Elon Musk CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X
5-50% Emmet Shear Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI
30% AI Safety Researchers (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)
33% Scott Alexander Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten
35% Eli Lifland AI engineer (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)
50% Holden Karnofsky Executive Director of Open Philanthropy
10-90% Jan Leike alignment lead at OpenAI
60% Zvi Mowshowitz AI researcher
70% Daniel Kokotajlo OpenAI researcher & forecaster
>80% Dan Hendrycks Head of Center for AI Safety
>99% Eliezer Yudkowsky Founder of MIRI
It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here
Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago
I'd imagine that most young people are aware of the direction of travel, and have been all their life. It's not something that they've just noticed and have only started panicking about.
Kurzweil was talking about the singularity in the early 90s. "Immanentising the eschaton" was a standard catchphrase at my school a few years later - we got it from a Ken Macleod novel, but I believe it originates with Discordianism in the 1970s. Bill Joy was loudly proclaiming that "the future doesn't need us" around the turn of the millennium.
So the young will have taken in the general concept with their mother's milk.
p(doom) is a thought experiment based on a narrower set of risks around (mis-)alignment and superintelligence, particularly in a fast takeoff scenario. But those are all things that people have been talking about for 15 years, and have been a part of pop culture for the past ten.
Why do you think any of this would be news to anyone under the age of 30, let alone anyone still in their teens?
I’m gonna repeat myself from last thread. Because it got no response and I find that, in itself, utterly fascinating
Here’s a thing. Young people like our own dear @148grss go on and on about climate change. It has been hammered into them, and fair enough - I concur it is a real issue, but I am not sure it is quite as existential as some claim. I believe humans will adapt, although it is, nonetheless, worth us taking measured steps to decrease C02 and it definitely worth us cleaning up the planet. I have seen FAR too much pollution, esp plastic, to be relaxed about that
However you never see young people, or indeed anyone, banging on and on and on about the dangers of AI
Yet these dangers are extremely real, and vastly more ominous than climate change
Let me introduce you to the concept of “P-doom” this is the probability that AGI, when it is achieved, will bring about a doomsday type event for humanity, perhaps total extinction, maybe just enslavement, but definitely something really really really bad. P-doom is expressed as a percentage. Here are the estimates of various experts, of P-Doom
<0.01% Yann LeCun one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta (less likely than an asteroid)
10% Vitalik Buterin Ethereum founder (Specifically means AI takeover)
10% Geoff Hinton one of three godfathers of AI (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)
14% Machine learning researchers (From 2022, median value is 5%)
15% Lina Khan head of FTC
10-20% Paul Christiano (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)
10-25% Dario Amodei CEO of Anthropic
20% Yoshua Bengio one of three godfathers of AI
20-30% Elon Musk CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X
5-50% Emmet Shear Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI
30% AI Safety Researchers (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)
33% Scott Alexander Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten
35% Eli Lifland AI engineer (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)
50% Holden Karnofsky Executive Director of Open Philanthropy
10-90% Jan Leike alignment lead at OpenAI
60% Zvi Mowshowitz AI researcher
70% Daniel Kokotajlo OpenAI researcher & forecaster
>80% Dan Hendrycks Head of Center for AI Safety
>99% Eliezer Yudkowsky Founder of MIRI
It is right now estimated we will achieve AGI in the next 1-10 years. That’s the consensus. Indeed it may already be here
Incidentally do not be reassured by the ‘likely as an asteroid’ prediction of Le Cun. He’s the guy who went on stage in Dubai and said AI text-to-video was impossible now, then got utterly humiliated when Sora was released literally two days later - a fortnight ago
To be fair you never heard young people banging on about the dangers of what.three.words either when you were assuring us that would be technological game changer.
I'm old enough to remember Leon repeatedly assuring us, five years ago, that China would be the biggest economy in the world in five years and any PBer who questioned his forecast was an idiot.
(I can also remember his more his more recent projection that Liz Truss would "surprise on the upside", but it would be ungentlemanly of me to salt the wound.)
China has the world’s largest economy by PPP - and has done for almost a decade. The Russo-Ukraine war teaches us that GDP by PPP is the best measure of national strength
China is losing more than two million people a year due to more deaths than births, and not much immigration.
I note Susan Hall uses the approved Conservative Party jargon of "anti-Muslim hatred" rather than saying "Islamophobia". God knows why they feel the need to quibble over this. Kemi Badenoch tried explaining.
Anti-Semitism and Anti-Zionism are two separate terms, why not two terms on the opposite side of the "debate"?
Yes but Islamophobia *means* prejudice against Muslims. It's not an equivalent to Anti-Zionism v Anti-Semitism.
As a general point I'm always struck by how many people are less exercised by prejudice against Muslims than by what to *call* prejudice against Muslims. It's odd.
Does anyone actually rate/support 30p Lee? He seems to be a laughing stock in his own party, and indeed his own seat of Ashfield.
What exactly is the point of him?
He certainly has a constituency. I follow Khan on FB and every single thing he posts, however anodyne, has a legion of posts underneath it from various angry looking elderly white people saying that they no longer recognise London, would never go to London because it isn't safe, and accusing Khan of being some kind of Muslim extremist or hater of white people, generally peppered with grammatical errors and spelling mistakes. Of course they may all be fake profiles created by the Russians but I doubt it.
No, they're real, but their numbers are still relatively small. It's a relief that they'd never visit London, though.
The problem with Anderson 'and his mates' is that they are absolutely convinced that they are the voice of the English white working class, and that for the vast majority of the WWC what he says is just common sense.
And that's why the far right will fail. The white working class is much more diverse in values and attitudes than Anderson thinks. Hooray.
Every group is far more diverse than people tend to think.
It's true of the "White Working Class", and it's true of "Muslims" and "Young People" and even "PB Commenters".
The path is now very clear for 30p Lee. Defect to UFUK. Noisily. Denouncing the Tories and everything they don't stand for. Foam on about "proper British values" which are anything but. Become the totem for the angry gammonite WWC. Lead the UFUK block in the Commons which will be bigger than the LibDem block as he shows the way for other angry doomed Tories. With a GBeebies show as a pulpit every week. Winning his seat at the GE.
Or, don't. Offer up an insincere apology and get the Tory whip back, only to get demolished at the election.
Didn't Tice offer him £400,000 to join ?
The rancour in politics is hard to witness and it is only getting worse
I did suggest yesterday that post GE the right may come together probably taking over the conservative party
Nothing in the last few days has done anything to change my view
Mind you Starmer has his own issues with a Savanta poll just now saying that 40% think he has an antisemitic problem in his party
Given the current Govt is the most left wing of my lifetime, I do hope the centre right takes back control of the Tory party!
People keep saying that but then don’t provide examples to back it up… so what makes this Tory Government left wing?
People keep asking me this then totally ignoring me when I provide concrete examples:
- Largest set of tax rises since the war - Huge growth in bureaucracy i.e. civil service - Govt paying part of everyone's energy bills - Huge growth in NHS spending
Is spending money per se left wing? Surely it matters what you're spending it on.
A larger state is associated with the left. However, the increase in bureaucracy seems largely to be a result of Brexit and us taking back control. Brexit was driven mostly by right wingers.
Paying part of everyone's energy bills is left wing, although there was broad consensus across the political spectrum (and across countries) of the necessity of this because of the unusual situation with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The UK paid less of people's energy bills that the centrist government in France.
The growth in NHS spending is below average. Labour have typically grown NHS spending bigger. Much of the drive for this growth in spending is demographics, an ageing population, rather than ideological desire for more state involvement.
The path is now very clear for 30p Lee. Defect to UFUK. Noisily. Denouncing the Tories and everything they don't stand for. Foam on about "proper British values" which are anything but. Become the totem for the angry gammonite WWC. Lead the UFUK block in the Commons which will be bigger than the LibDem block as he shows the way for other angry doomed Tories. With a GBeebies show as a pulpit every week. Winning his seat at the GE.
Or, don't. Offer up an insincere apology and get the Tory whip back, only to get demolished at the election.
Didn't Tice offer him £400,000 to join ?
The rancour in politics is hard to witness and it is only getting worse
I did suggest yesterday that post GE the right may come together probably taking over the conservative party
Nothing in the last few days has done anything to change my view
Mind you Starmer has his own issues with a Savanta poll just now saying that 40% think he has an antisemitic problem in his party
Given the current Govt is the most left wing of my lifetime, I do hope the centre right takes back control of the Tory party!
People keep saying that but then don’t provide examples to back it up… so what makes this Tory Government left wing?
People keep asking me this then totally ignoring me when I provide concrete examples:
- Largest set of tax rises since the war - Huge growth in bureaucracy i.e. civil service - Govt paying part of everyone's energy bills - Huge growth in NHS spending
Highest net migration on record.
They’ve more or less done exactly what centrist Remain types desired. But because those centrist remainers accused Boris’s party of being racist, immigrant hating, free marketeers who wanted to privatise the NHS pre GE19, they have to keep complaining until someone who didn’t win the referendum and wears a non blue rosette is in charge
Does anyone actually rate/support 30p Lee? He seems to be a laughing stock in his own party, and indeed his own seat of Ashfield.
What exactly is the point of him?
He certainly has a constituency. I follow Khan on FB and every single thing he posts, however anodyne, has a legion of posts underneath it from various angry looking elderly white people saying that they no longer recognise London, would never go to London because it isn't safe, and accusing Khan of being some kind of Muslim extremist or hater of white people, generally peppered with grammatical errors and spelling mistakes. Of course they may all be fake profiles created by the Russians but I doubt it.
We are just seeing the development of the next front in British politics developing, in anticipation of a Labour government.
A large subset of 2019 Tory voters might not vote for the Tories again, but they are I suspect highly persuadable to vote for a new right wing brand over the Labour Party, if given the opportunity.
The 2019 realignment might not have developed to the Tories' advantage, but those voters are still out there, and they're not Starmerites.
My sense is that things have all got very weird and party allignments/reallignments are not going to work the way we might expect them to. I am in no way typical of any voter but I could end up voting for either Labour or Reform UK. The former as a kind of 'last roll of the dice' for centrism based largely on confidence in Starmer (a confidence that I do not have in the conservative party), the latter as the party who are at least trying to seriously discuss issues that urgently need to be raised but are largely shut down by the main parties. I would regard myself as a centrist, I think that the far right are dangerous, but perhaps less dangerous than the 'woke' left - my ongoing complaint being that the latter get a free pass with people being apparently blind to the dangers they pose.
The path is now very clear for 30p Lee. Defect to UFUK. Noisily. Denouncing the Tories and everything they don't stand for. Foam on about "proper British values" which are anything but. Become the totem for the angry gammonite WWC. Lead the UFUK block in the Commons which will be bigger than the LibDem block as he shows the way for other angry doomed Tories. With a GBeebies show as a pulpit every week. Winning his seat at the GE.
Or, don't. Offer up an insincere apology and get the Tory whip back, only to get demolished at the election.
Didn't Tice offer him £400,000 to join ?
The rancour in politics is hard to witness and it is only getting worse
I did suggest yesterday that post GE the right may come together probably taking over the conservative party
Nothing in the last few days has done anything to change my view
Mind you Starmer has his own issues with a Savanta poll just now saying that 40% think he has an antisemitic problem in his party
Given the current Govt is the most left wing of my lifetime, I do hope the centre right takes back control of the Tory party!
People keep saying that but then don’t provide examples to back it up… so what makes this Tory Government left wing?
People keep asking me this then totally ignoring me when I provide concrete examples:
- Largest set of tax rises since the war - Huge growth in bureaucracy i.e. civil service - Govt paying part of everyone's energy bills - Huge growth in NHS spending
Well, I agree with you regarding energy bills. I think that kind of government support is dumb and means that energy demand doesn't fall as much as it should.
But are you sure regarding bureaucracy? It is worth remembering that - because spending on the NHS and pensions is baked in to keep rising - pretty much every other department is seeing real terms reductions in spending.
And tax rises? Are you sure there too? The early Thatcher budgets were massively tax raising as she closed the big hole in the finances left by Callaghan. (The charts are here: https://obr.uk/box/the-uks-tax-burden-in-historical-and-international-context/ - and '79 to '83 saw a 5 percentage point increase in tax take as a % of GDP against 2 percentage points in the the last few years.)
Basically the civil service is now 26% bigger than it was in 2016 but still not as big as it was in 2005. The Civil Service is also becoming more senior with an ever higher percentage in the higher paid ranks or more chiefs and fewer Indians if you are still allowed to say that.
These figures can be distorted by jobs being contracted out and other definitional problems but a 26% increase is still pretty remarkable. Much of Osborne's good work has been undone for very little obvious benefit.
I note Susan Hall uses the approved Conservative Party jargon of "anti-Muslim hatred" rather than saying "Islamophobia". God knows why they feel the need to quibble over this. Kemi Badenoch tried explaining.
Anti-Semitism and Anti-Zionism are two separate terms, why not two terms on the opposite side of the "debate"?
Antisemitism and anti-Zionism are intended to mean different things. In so far as I understand the Conservative Party's quibble, anti-Muslim hatred and Islamophobia mean the same thing, but wurble wurble Labour said something wurble.
It's not immediately apparent from the provinces what Lee Anderson has said which is wrong. The Palestine lobby appears to have a free pass in London - block Tower Bridge, light up parliament, do what you like boys, as long as you wave the little black white green and red flag.
It's exactly the same right-wing media bollocks that makes Americans think it's dangerous to be white in Birmingham, I'm amazed you don't see that.
I note Susan Hall uses the approved Conservative Party jargon of "anti-Muslim hatred" rather than saying "Islamophobia". God knows why they feel the need to quibble over this. Kemi Badenoch tried explaining.
Anti-Semitism and Anti-Zionism are two separate terms, why not two terms on the opposite side of the "debate"?
Islamophobia might be construed as 'fear of Islamists' which is (a) the reaction they crave and (b) far too common to merit disapproval. Wasn't the Speaker motivated by Islamophobia last week when he tore up the rule book to protect MPs from Islamist violence?
I note Susan Hall uses the approved Conservative Party jargon of "anti-Muslim hatred" rather than saying "Islamophobia". God knows why they feel the need to quibble over this. Kemi Badenoch tried explaining.
Anti-Semitism and Anti-Zionism are two separate terms, why not two terms on the opposite side of the "debate"?
Antisemitism and anti zionism are two entirely seperate things, at least in theory, which is not to say that some people don't conflate the two or use one as a vehicle for the other. You get a fair number of anti zionist Jews, both for political and religious reasons, for one thing. It seems to me that the Tory dislike of Islamophobic as a term is that they want to be free to criticise Islam the religion. But AIUI the term Islamophobic means hatred of Muslims, not criticism of Islam, so it seems a rather odd thing to get hung up on. If I was a cynic I'd just say the Tories wanted anti muslim bigots to vote for them and this is the only acceptable way of trying to achieve that. I guess you also have to wonder what would happen if some Muslim councillor in Rochdale said he didn't hate Jews but thought that Judaism was awful, I can't help thinking he'd be out on his ear pdq.
Does anyone actually rate/support 30p Lee? He seems to be a laughing stock in his own party, and indeed his own seat of Ashfield.
What exactly is the point of him?
He certainly has a constituency. I follow Khan on FB and every single thing he posts, however anodyne, has a legion of posts underneath it from various angry looking elderly white people saying that they no longer recognise London, would never go to London because it isn't safe, and accusing Khan of being some kind of Muslim extremist or hater of white people, generally peppered with grammatical errors and spelling mistakes. Of course they may all be fake profiles created by the Russians but I doubt it.
We are just seeing the development of the next front in British politics developing, in anticipation of a Labour government.
A large subset of 2019 Tory voters might not vote for the Tories again, but they are I suspect highly persuadable to vote for a new right wing brand over the Labour Party, if given the opportunity.
The 2019 realignment might not have developed to the Tories' advantage, but those voters are still out there, and they're not Starmerites.
My sense is that things have all got very weird and party allignments/reallignments are not going to work the way we might expect them to. I am in no way typical of any voter but I could end up voting for either Labour or Reform UK. The former as a kind of 'last roll of the dice' for centrism based largely on confidence in Starmer (a confidence that I do not have in the conservative party), the latter as the party who are at least trying to seriously discuss issues that urgently need to be raised but are largely shut down by the main parties. I would regard myself as a centrist, I think that the far right are dangerous, but perhaps less dangerous than the 'woke' left - my ongoing complaint being that the latter get a free pass with people being apparently blind to the dangers they pose.
What issues does Reform UK raise that aren't discussed?
Immigration? One of the number one topics here. The Conservative Party go on about it all the time.
Trans rights? One of the number one topics here. The SNP and Greens go on about them all the time. The Conservative Party talks about them a fair amount too.
Vaccine dangers? Yep, that one is shut down, because it's complete bollocks.
The path is now very clear for 30p Lee. Defect to UFUK. Noisily. Denouncing the Tories and everything they don't stand for. Foam on about "proper British values" which are anything but. Become the totem for the angry gammonite WWC. Lead the UFUK block in the Commons which will be bigger than the LibDem block as he shows the way for other angry doomed Tories. With a GBeebies show as a pulpit every week. Winning his seat at the GE.
Or, don't. Offer up an insincere apology and get the Tory whip back, only to get demolished at the election.
Didn't Tice offer him £400,000 to join ?
The rancour in politics is hard to witness and it is only getting worse
I did suggest yesterday that post GE the right may come together probably taking over the conservative party
Nothing in the last few days has done anything to change my view
Mind you Starmer has his own issues with a Savanta poll just now saying that 40% think he has an antisemitic problem in his party
Given the current Govt is the most left wing of my lifetime, I do hope the centre right takes back control of the Tory party!
People keep saying that but then don’t provide examples to back it up… so what makes this Tory Government left wing?
People keep asking me this then totally ignoring me when I provide concrete examples:
- Largest set of tax rises since the war - Huge growth in bureaucracy i.e. civil service - Govt paying part of everyone's energy bills - Huge growth in NHS spending
Well, I agree with you regarding energy bills. I think that kind of government support is dumb and means that energy demand doesn't fall as much as it should.
But are you sure regarding bureaucracy? It is worth remembering that - because spending on the NHS and pensions is baked in to keep rising - pretty much every other department is seeing real terms reductions in spending.
And tax rises? Are you sure there too? The early Thatcher budgets were massively tax raising as she closed the big hole in the finances left by Callaghan. (The charts are here: https://obr.uk/box/the-uks-tax-burden-in-historical-and-international-context/ - and '79 to '83 saw a 5 percentage point increase in tax take as a % of GDP against 2 percentage points in the the last few years.)
Basically the civil service is now 26% bigger than it was in 2016 but still not as big as it was in 2005. The Civil Service is also becoming more senior with an ever higher percentage in the higher paid ranks or more chiefs and fewer Indians if you are still allowed to say that.
These figures can be distorted by jobs being contracted out and other definitional problems but a 26% increase is still pretty remarkable. Much of Osborne's good work has been undone for very little obvious benefit.
As you hint in your penultimate sentence, virtually all of the reduction in the CS numbers was illusory. Maude and Osborne contracted out huge numbers of functions. Where numbers were genuinely cut, gaps then had to be filled by highly-paid consultants, not defined as CS of course. The whole thing was a scam, just to reduce the official CS headcount. I don't reckon it saved a penny -probably the opposite.
Does anyone actually rate/support 30p Lee? He seems to be a laughing stock in his own party, and indeed his own seat of Ashfield.
What exactly is the point of him?
He certainly has a constituency. I follow Khan on FB and every single thing he posts, however anodyne, has a legion of posts underneath it from various angry looking elderly white people saying that they no longer recognise London, would never go to London because it isn't safe, and accusing Khan of being some kind of Muslim extremist or hater of white people, generally peppered with grammatical errors and spelling mistakes. Of course they may all be fake profiles created by the Russians but I doubt it.
We are just seeing the development of the next front in British politics developing, in anticipation of a Labour government.
A large subset of 2019 Tory voters might not vote for the Tories again, but they are I suspect highly persuadable to vote for a new right wing brand over the Labour Party, if given the opportunity.
The 2019 realignment might not have developed to the Tories' advantage, but those voters are still out there, and they're not Starmerites.
Under PR maybe, under FPTP Reform are still polling on average worse than UKIP got in 2015.
Plus if Sunak and Hunt lose the next general election and the next Conservative leader is an ERG favoured rightwinger like Badenoch, Braverman, Patel or Jenrick they will mostly return to the Tory fold
The SNP have every right to carp that they have had one of their three debates spiked by the speaker. The Speaker was out of order.
However, two of the last two debates motioned by the SNP are all about Gaza, as will be the next. It strikes me that mischief making is more important than the domestic issues the SNP were elected to resolve.
It astounds me that intelligent PBers can't grasp that, at Westminster, thje SNP *were* elected to deal with UK foreign policy, inter aliis.
One debate out of three, fair enough. But three out of three! Do they not have a domestic policy?
They didn't even get the last *debate*. And theyd have debated green energy as well, if Labour hadn't wrecked the day. And the last opposition day was pre Gaza, wasn't it? Are you thinking of the King's Speech debate?
Mind you it seems to have all worked in their favour. Labour plummeting by 4 points and an uptick in the SNP's fortunes.
And less of the intelligent PBer please!
The Deltapoll poll has Labour back into the 43-45 range that every other poll of theirs this year has landed them in, so I'm not sure I'd call that a 'plummet'.
By contrast, their share of 23% for the Tories is by some way their worst for Team Blue in 2024; all the rest are 27-29.
Don't cloud the issue with facts. Mexican Pete has his narrative and he's sticking to it.
I note Susan Hall uses the approved Conservative Party jargon of "anti-Muslim hatred" rather than saying "Islamophobia". God knows why they feel the need to quibble over this. Kemi Badenoch tried explaining.
Anti-Semitism and Anti-Zionism are two separate terms, why not two terms on the opposite side of the "debate"?
Islamophobia might be construed as 'fear of Islamists' which is (a) the reaction they crave and (b) far too common to merit disapproval. Wasn't the Speaker motivated by Islamophobia last week when he tore up the rule book to protect MPs from Islamist violence?
No-one defines Islamophobia as "fear of Islamists". Don't be silly.
"And the rate of increase among young people seems flatly terrifying: in 2023, NHS figures suggested that the proportion of people aged 17-19 with an eating disorder stood at 12%, up from 0.8% only six years before."
I note Susan Hall uses the approved Conservative Party jargon of "anti-Muslim hatred" rather than saying "Islamophobia". God knows why they feel the need to quibble over this. Kemi Badenoch tried explaining.
Anti-Semitism and Anti-Zionism are two separate terms, why not two terms on the opposite side of the "debate"?
Antisemitism and anti-Zionism are intended to mean different things. In so far as I understand the Conservative Party's quibble, anti-Muslim hatred and Islamophobia mean the same thing, but wurble wurble Labour said something wurble.
As long as people make their meaning clear they are entitled to choose their words, and are not obliged to copy others.
One of the problems with 'Islamophobia' is that it expresses fear rather than hatred of Islam; a further problem is that distinguishing between 'Islam' 'Islamic' (hooray) and 'Islamism' and 'Islamist' (boo) is too hard except for those paying an awful lot of attention. We live in a world where large numbers of people confuse 'paedophile' and 'paediatrician'.
Comments
I never gave a shit about woodburners. I did post 3-4 times about my worries about the China virus in January 2020 (and even stocked up over it) but I just post 300-400 times.
Regarding climate change, I've never heard one discussion about whether it might differentially affect the species that caused it - us - more than non-human nature. The zealots might want to think about that.
The SNP's game was to put up a "We think the Palestinians deserve a break (with these controversial/toxic terms and conditions)" motion- the sort of motion it would be bad to support and bad to oppose.
The effect of last week's antics was that Labour got to vote for a detoxified "We think the Palestinians deserve a break" motion, which sailed through. That makes it easier to oppose or ignore whatever the SNP put up next.
@RedfieldWilton
Labour leads by 20%.
Highest Green % in our polling.
Westminster VI (25 Feb):
Labour 43% (-3)
Conservative 23% (–)
Reform UK 12% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 10% (+1)
Green 8% (+2)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 18 Feb
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -26%, down one point from last week’s poll, and the lowest approval rating Sunak has ever recorded in our polling as either Prime Minister or Chancellor of the Exchequer.
This week’s poll finds 26% approving of his overall job performance (–) against 52% (+1) disapproving.
Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +2%, down seven points from last week, and the lowest approval rating he has recorded since 14 May 2023 (when it was also +2%).
35% approve of Starmer’s job performance (-4), while 33% disapprove (+3).
Is Susan Hall trying to de-fruit-loop herself?
Not that's a story.
I can't understand why so many normally intellgent PBers seem to be accepting this.
New advisory reveals evolving tactics used by Russian state-linked cyber actors as more organisations move to cloud-based infrastructure.
https://www.ncsc.gov.uk/news/uk-allies-expose-evolving-tactics-of-russian-cyber-actors
A new report from the NCSC and its foreign equivalents. Keep safe, everyone.
Anderson's already had at least two where people have shouted things at him about him shooting his mouth off, then not followed through. That is what's-her-name 'poverty food writer' with the millionaire dad, and the dad of an Ashfield Councillor with (the Councillor) a fairly regular criminal record.
https://centerforsecuritypolicy.org/bidens-policies-toward-russia-and-ukraine-raise-risk-of-new-putins-aggression/
The matter is still rumbling on - but the Speaker is running out of time to resolve it equitably.
I just asked the Internet, and it says "séant" is polite slang in French for "arse".
eg "Les plus précieuses de ces dames s'étaient prémunies du confort spartiate des sièges métalliques en protégeant leur séant d'un coussin."
It's not much of a USP since these days you can't move for people saying what they are too cowed by the woke consensus to say. You could almost be forgiven for thinking the 'woke consensus' is the invention of those who wish to define themselves by railing against it.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/grant-shapps-raf-helicopter-pick-32216865
I still do not think this is going anywhere, but it will linger on for some time yet
And less of the intelligent PBer please!
It astounds me that PBers, intelligent or otherwise, can't accept that the SNP hold the policy in good faith, given public opinion, and the unusual position of their leader. Of course, kneeing Labour int he nads is a good secondary aim, but in this instance you do need to do better than that.
He has reneged on that which is not a good look but I expect he will carry on as will Starmer
(b) Anyone can protest through the streets of London. This country respects the right to protest. A few people on marches have broken the law and then been arrested -- this is appropriate and happens with some other protests (Just Stop Oil, Anti-Ulez).
(c) Whether or not you feel Khan should be doing something to reign in pro-Palestinian marches, how does that demonstrate, as per Anderson, that the Islamists control him? I see nothing to suggest that Khan is acting under duress, under someone else's control.
(d) There have been a bunch of marches, which have been disruptive in places, and there have been some cases of criminal behaviour. Does that mean the marchers, or Islamists, control London, as Anderson claims? I live in London. I've not see a single march, not been disrupted by any protests. I've seen a couple of pro-Palestinian stickers. A lot of pro-Palestinian protests demonstrates some strength of feeling, but not that anyone controls London. The marchers are not an occupying force.
(e) Jewish groups have praised Khan's actions in recent months. It would seem unlikely that they would do that were he controlled by Islamists.
Lee Anderson is being racist. He is equating broad Muslim support for Palestine with a specific political philosophy (Islamism). He jumps to Khan being controlled purely because Khan is also Muslim. His comments about London being controlled is hyperbole at best, and at worst sounds like those MAGA types who talk about parts of London being no-go areas where Sharia law applies.
He even had the example of "what happened to Katie", which would cost his first 5 years' pay at GBN.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67329731
The SNP are outraged because what a glorious opportunity to try and claim the English are treating them badly.
Politics is about working cross party to seek as much consensus as possible. They have no interest in that, and claim faux outrage and concern for Gaza. Bullshit.
By contrast, their share of 23% for the Tories is by some way their worst for Team Blue in 2024; all the rest are 27-29.
The result was achieved using an illicit mode, which seriously damages the SNP's ability to function at Westminster. As well as the LDs. You should be able to see that.
Have you seen the quality of AI images now? This isn't about being 'suggestible'; it's about it being literally impossible to know what's true, especially if people only get their news from a small number of websites, where feed is deliberately skewed to the political ends of their owners and personalised to the user. It's *way* more sophisticated and nuanced than old-style newspapers.
- Largest set of tax rises since the war
- Huge growth in bureaucracy i.e. civil service
- Govt paying part of everyone's energy bills
- Huge growth in NHS spending
Furthermore she is not impressed with Sky's report the Speaker has reneged on his promise to the Scots
I would just add this is not about Gaza as she doesn't really understand the detail, but fairness to Scotland
And both my wife and I are unionists
I accept that going round saying 'Trump's a twat' may not end well for Britain if Trump is re-elected and will play badly in America too (even though Trump is a twat). But diplomatic slience shouldn't affect essential policy.
I have thought long and hard about how we could have kept reasonable relations with Putin's Russia, and have come up with no conclusion on a strategy that might have succeeded.
Sorry huge growth in bureaucracy - every department has less staff than before so I would want to see examples
Well energy prices did double in very short order and it was subsidies the prices or a lot of the energy firms going bankrupt
Isnt the NHS related to the age of the population
So again I’m struggling to see the left part of the equation because yep taxes are up but I don’t see the spending
"It is never difficult to distinguish between a Scotsman with a grievance and a ray of sunshine."
(Blandings Castle and Elsewhere (1935) ‘The Custody of the Pumpkin’)
I suspect it makes no difference. And while there have been lots of critics on lots of grounds, no-one has ever suggested he is actually wrong, for the good reason that he isn't.
A large subset of 2019 Tory voters might not vote for the Tories again, but they are I suspect highly persuadable to vote for a new right wing brand over the Labour Party, if given the opportunity.
The 2019 realignment might not have developed to the Tories' advantage, but those voters are still out there, and they're not Starmerites.
But are you sure regarding bureaucracy? It is worth remembering that - because spending on the NHS and pensions is baked in to keep rising - pretty much every other department is seeing real terms reductions in spending.
And tax rises? Are you sure there too? The early Thatcher budgets were massively tax raising as she closed the big hole in the finances left by Callaghan. (The charts are here: https://obr.uk/box/the-uks-tax-burden-in-historical-and-international-context/ - and '79 to '83 saw a 5 percentage point increase in tax take as a % of GDP against 2 percentage points in the the last few years.)
Turning into a Pound Shop Bercow, perhaps?
We've had decades of something for nothing, and students of heist movies know what that tends to be followed by...
The problem with Anderson 'and his mates' is that they are absolutely convinced that they are the voice of the English white working class, and that for the vast majority of the WWC what he says is just common sense.
And that's why the far right will fail. The white working class is much more diverse in values and attitudes than Anderson thinks. Hooray.
Having said that, Anderson's comments were clearly offensive and it is right he was suspended. However I expect in white working class, strong Leave Ashfield many will agree with his comments and if CCHQ deselect him as a parliamentary candidate I would expect him to switch to ReformUK
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C30JjtGMZ-l/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
If we are going to start trying to control what opposition parties do with their time in parliament because we don’t agree with it it defeats the object of an opposition.
And you can’t on one hand want SMP representation in Parliament and then decide that you want that representation but only if they keep quiet about foreign affairs etc. Their voice on such matters are every bit as valid as any other party in Parliament.
They have every right to be angry whether you agree with their aim or not.
I mean - is it left wing or is it weak?
Kurzweil was talking about the singularity in the early 90s. "Immanentising the eschaton" was a standard catchphrase at my school a few years later - we got it from a Ken Macleod novel, but I believe it originates with Discordianism in the 1970s. Bill Joy was loudly proclaiming that "the future doesn't need us" around the turn of the millennium.
So the young will have taken in the general concept with their mother's milk.
p(doom) is a thought experiment based on a narrower set of risks around (mis-)alignment and superintelligence, particularly in a fast takeoff scenario. But those are all things that people have been talking about for 15 years, and have been a part of pop culture for the past ten.
Why do you think any of this would be news to anyone under the age of 30, let alone anyone still in their teens?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China#Vital_statistics
As a general point I'm always struck by how many people are less exercised by prejudice against Muslims than by what to *call* prejudice against Muslims. It's odd.
It's true of the "White Working Class", and it's true of "Muslims" and "Young People" and even "PB Commenters".
A larger state is associated with the left. However, the increase in bureaucracy seems largely to be a result of Brexit and us taking back control. Brexit was driven mostly by right wingers.
Paying part of everyone's energy bills is left wing, although there was broad consensus across the political spectrum (and across countries) of the necessity of this because of the unusual situation with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The UK paid less of people's energy bills that the centrist government in France.
The growth in NHS spending is below average. Labour have typically grown NHS spending bigger. Much of the drive for this growth in spending is demographics, an ageing population, rather than ideological desire for more state involvement.
They’ve more or less done exactly what centrist Remain types desired. But because those centrist remainers accused Boris’s party of being racist, immigrant hating, free marketeers who wanted to privatise the NHS pre GE19, they have to keep complaining until someone who didn’t win the referendum and wears a non blue rosette is in charge
Basically the civil service is now 26% bigger than it was in 2016 but still not as big as it was in 2005. The Civil Service is also becoming more senior with an ever higher percentage in the higher paid ranks or more chiefs and fewer Indians if you are still allowed to say that.
These figures can be distorted by jobs being contracted out and other definitional problems but a 26% increase is still pretty remarkable. Much of Osborne's good work has been undone for very little obvious benefit.
42% don't know
Are the public listening?
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1762165193218429058?t=r1j9xo9L23HrD_z_X3HGdA&s=19
Immigration? One of the number one topics here. The Conservative Party go on about it all the time.
Trans rights? One of the number one topics here. The SNP and Greens go on about them all the time. The Conservative Party talks about them a fair amount too.
Vaccine dangers? Yep, that one is shut down, because it's complete bollocks.
Plus if Sunak and Hunt lose the next general election and the next Conservative leader is an ERG favoured rightwinger like Badenoch, Braverman, Patel or Jenrick they will mostly return to the Tory fold
"And the rate of increase among young people seems flatly terrifying: in 2023, NHS figures suggested that the proportion of people aged 17-19 with an eating disorder stood at 12%, up from 0.8% only six years before."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/25/illness-worsens-scandal-eating-disorder-treatment-england
One of the problems with 'Islamophobia' is that it expresses fear rather than hatred of Islam; a further problem is that distinguishing between 'Islam' 'Islamic' (hooray) and 'Islamism' and 'Islamist' (boo) is too hard except for those paying an awful lot of attention. We live in a world where large numbers of people confuse 'paedophile' and 'paediatrician'.