Why we are unikely to see a 1992 redux – politicalbetting.com

I generally agree with the threader; but if Kinnock said that, then I expect Sunak to marry someone called Norma and feel a sudden fondness for both soapboxes and Edwina Currie...

Good morning.

I’m not sure what has got into the i newspaper lately.

The opinion polls look nothing like 1992. In the two years leading to the vote there were alternating Conservative and Labour leads, with little or nothing in double-digits for either party. Labour last managed a 10% lead a full year before the GE

In the twelve months leading to the 1992 General Election, the reds and blues alternated opinion poll leads, with neither party having more than a single digit lead in any poll:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1992_United_Kingdom_general_election

This time we haven’t seen a Conservative opinion poll lead of any sort since December 2021. Instead, Labour have been regularly polling double digit leads, and often above 20% with the Conservative Party’s share of the vote between 10% and 20% lower than anything in the run up to 1992.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

The media would love this to be a closer race than it looks like being and will print any old rubbish if it makes their wish come true.

James Cleverly: Deepfakes pose ‘perfect’ threat to next election
The home secretary warns that malign actors will use the technology to hijacking elections
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/james-cleverly-deepfakes-threat-next-general-election-bwmjcdfpm (£££)

There's something remarkably bitter about Neil Kinnock.

200 staff employed on full pay for Government rail body… that doesn’t exist
Great British Railways tells i that staff working on other issues surrounding rail as project progress stalls
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/staff-full-pay-government-rail-doesnt-exist-2922221 (£££)

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Heathener said:

Good morning.

I’m not sure what has got into the i newspaper lately.

The opinion polls look nothing like 1992. In the two years leading to the vote there were alternating Conservative and Labour leads, with little or nothing in double-digits for either party. Labour last managed a 10% lead a full year before the GE

In the twelve months leading to the 1992 General Election, the reds and blues alternated opinion poll leads, with neither party having more than a single digit lead in any poll:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1992_United_Kingdom_general_election

This time we haven’t seen a Conservative opinion poll lead of any sort since December 2021. Instead, Labour have been regularly polling double digit leads, and often above 20% with the Conservative Party’s share of the vote between 10% and 20% lower than anything in the run up to 1992.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

The media would love this to be a closer race than it looks like being and will print any old rubbish if it makes their wish come true.

Was it the i that had CCHQ whistling in the dark about soft Labour leads the other day? I can't find the story now.

I think it was

Koch network stops spending on Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/25/koch-afp-nikki-haley-00143212

There's a big difference too with 1992 and indeed 1997. There wasn't anyone in the then Cabinets who stood out as particularly divisive or incompetent. Recently we've had people like Braverman and Mogg in high offices of state, not to mention Truss as PM.

Heathener said:

Good morning.

I’m not sure what has got into the i newspaper lately.

The opinion polls look nothing like 1992. In the two years leading to the vote there were alternating Conservative and Labour leads, with little or nothing in double-digits for either party. Labour last managed a 10% lead a full year before the GE

In the twelve months leading to the 1992 General Election, the reds and blues alternated opinion poll leads, with neither party having more than a single digit lead in any poll:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1992_United_Kingdom_general_election

This time we haven’t seen a Conservative opinion poll lead of any sort since December 2021. Instead, Labour have been regularly polling double digit leads, and often above 20% with the Conservative Party’s share of the vote between 10% and 20% lower than anything in the run up to 1992.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

The media would love this to be a closer race than it looks like being and will print any old rubbish if it makes their wish come true.

It serves all media, all political parties and all political pollsters to talk up a close race, and it may even be true, but I think not.

ydoethur said:

sbjme19 said:

There's a big difference too with 1992 and indeed 1997. There wasn't anyone in the then Cabinets who stood out as particularly divisive or incompetent. Recently we've had people like Braverman and Mogg in high offices of state, not to mention Truss as PM.

Norman Lamont?

A towering titan, in comparison

Monksfield said:

Nigelb said:

The Chancellor is planning further cuts to local government funding.

UK public services will buckle under planned spending cuts, economists warn
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/26/uk-public-services-will-buckle-under-planned-spending-cuts-economists-warn

Why do the Tories hate local Government? It’s deeply counterproductive as LG provides many of the services people interact with daily.

Local government dictates all the features of where the vast majority live their lives, and the tories have ruined it.🤷

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Probably posted last week but here is Yes, Prime Minister on nuclear missiles not working:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Mpaemn0SrM

The consoling thing is that the Russian rockets are probably in an even worse state...

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - it's not just housing. It's remarkably difficult to get anything built or done here, including airports, strategic roads, railways or power stations.

If you gave everyone in a 1 mile radius of your project £1000, it would be cheaper than the bullshit that goes on. But, I’m told that would be illegal.

When various plans for Hammersmith bridge were being held up by a small number of objectors, I asked - “Why not just buy the properties? Offer twice the market rate. Cash down, 60 minutes to decide.”

sbjme19 said:

There's a big difference too with 1992 and indeed 1997. There wasn't anyone in the then Cabinets who stood out as particularly divisive or incompetent. Recently we've had people like Braverman and Mogg in high offices of state, not to mention Truss as PM.

Hilarious that some are still desperately trying to pin Rishi and Hunt's complete failure on the likes of Mogg and Truss. Desperate.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Foxy said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Probably posted last week but here is Yes, Prime Minister on nuclear missiles not working:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Mpaemn0SrM

The consoling thing is that the Russian rockets are probably in an even worse state...

If the SMO has taught us anything it is that Russia knows how to build rockets. Whether their nuclear warheads have been properly maintained is in doubt but it is probably best not to find out. Even a 90 per cent failure rate means the other 10 per cent can obliterate life in Milton Keynes.

I knew there was existence in Milton Keynes but is it life?

Trump has so far failed to come up with bonds for each of his outstanding judgments. Although not obliged to the NY Attorney General has given him 30 days which expires on 25th March, the same day as he is due to start a criminal trial. Trump is, as usual, asking for more time and less bond from the appeal courts but has so far failed to achieve either. The NYT examines his options: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/24/nyregion/trump-fraud-trial-penalty.html?unlocked_article_code=1.YE0.Hzov.tbdL0sWfpBJa&smid=url-share

TLDR: they aren't great. The collapse of his business empire is a real possibility with all the implications that might have for his candidacy.

I approve of this plan.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/feb/26/school-summer-holidays-half-term-england-calendar-nuffield-foundation-report

No chance of it being implemented today?

DavidL said:

The last line of the thread header seems as out of hope as an England cricket team.

Oops, knackered from yesterday watching Liverpool's under 12s beat Chelsea first team.

Proudest I've ever been about a Liverpool.

That chant of Allez, Allez, Allez in extra time will live me for ever.

Monksfield said:

Nigelb said:

The Chancellor is planning further cuts to local government funding.

UK public services will buckle under planned spending cuts, economists warn
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/26/uk-public-services-will-buckle-under-planned-spending-cuts-economists-warn

Why do the Tories hate local Government? It’s deeply counterproductive as LG provides many of the services people interact with daily.

My guess Hunt is cutting LG funding to get through the election. This creates headroom for tax cuts now while LG effects will be a little later. It's extremely short term thinking, and arguably salting the earth for the probable next government.

dixiedean said:

I approve of this plan.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/feb/26/school-summer-holidays-half-term-england-calendar-nuffield-foundation-report

No chance of it being implemented today?

First day back after half term?

Labours stance on Gaza has been a lot more risky than the Tories continued Islamophobia. Very few Muslims vote Tory so in terms of electoral fallout to their own vote share it’s likely to be low .

The one thing it does though is to help Labour . The Muslim population might not like Labours stance but have been reminded of the alternative .

It also looks very hypocritical of the Tories and their media arse lickers. It’s clear that the Tory party have decided that fermenting division and hate is going to be part of their electoral strategy .

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

The last line of the thread header seems as out of hope as an England cricket team.

Oops, knackered from yesterday watching Liverpool's under 12s beat Chelsea first team.

Proudest I've ever been about a Liverpool.

(Snip)

This is something I don't understand with sport. How can you feel pride for a sporting team you support? You are not a member of the team; you do not coach or work for the club. You have contributed nothing to the victory. So how can you feel pride?

JosiasJessop said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

The last line of the thread header seems as out of hope as an England cricket team.

Oops, knackered from yesterday watching Liverpool's under 12s beat Chelsea first team.

Proudest I've ever been about a Liverpool.

(Snip)

This is something I don't understand with sport. How can you feel pride for a sporting team you support? You are not a member of the team; you do not coach or work for the club. You have contributed nothing to the victory. So how can you feel pride?

Because we never got on the manager's back when he didn't win any trophies in his first few seasons, or when we lost six home games in a row, we don't get on the club's back for not spending £115 million on midfielders. we back Klopp's judgment when picking kids.

And as Klopp says the support we give the team from stands is amazing.

There's a reason why we pulled off the greatest comeback since Lazarus when we came back from 3 nil to knock out Barca in 2019.

TimS said:

Early morning start for me, up at 5.30 to get down to the vineyard for a 7.30 start with our Nepalese pruning crew (Nepal isn’t known for its viticulture of course, but the experts - the Romanians - are in short supply and this lot are I think retired Gurkhas).

In the damp morning gloaming I kicked off by demonstrating how I wanted the various different vines pruned. And proceeded to select the wrong cane at the base of one and cut off the main trunk in front of the whole crew. Oops.

That's embarassing.

Yonks ago, a friend of mine went on a mountain leadership course in Scotland. They were well above the snowline (I think in the Cairngorms), and the teacher was a well-known British mountaineer.

They stood around in the snow and ice as he described how to use an ice axe. He then did a demonstration. Except one of his crampons had bitten to deeply into the ice, and he jumped, his lower leg remained in place, shattering his knee. He lay on the snow and (apparently calmly) said something like: "if you remember the lesson we did on emergencies, I'd appreciate if one you could call mountain rescue..."

Luckyguy1983 said:

Chris said:

To be a bit serious, while Sunak doesn't do himself many favours on the likeability front, racism among the white electorate is sure to be playing some part in his unpopularity, and as someone from an Indian Hindu family, he will also be starting with a handicap as far as a significant fraction of the non-white electorate is concerned.

Good grief.

God forbid anything should detract from your fixation that he's unpopular just because he's not Liz Truss.

nico679 said:

Labours stance on Gaza has been a lot more risky than the Tories continued Islamophobia. Very few Muslims vote Tory so in terms of electoral fallout to their own vote share it’s likely to be low .

The one thing it does though is to help Labour . The Muslim population might not like Labours stance but have been reminded of the alternative .

It also looks very hypocritical of the Tories and their media arse lickers. It’s clear that the Tory party have decided that fermenting division and hate is going to be part of their electoral strategy .

A major difference between Labour's anti-Semitism under Corbyn (which still bubbles under the surface) and The Conservatives Islamaphobia, is that there are far more Muslims in this country (and hence voters) than Jews.

Luckyguy1983 said:

sbjme19 said:

There's a big difference too with 1992 and indeed 1997. There wasn't anyone in the then Cabinets who stood out as particularly divisive or incompetent. Recently we've had people like Braverman and Mogg in high offices of state, not to mention Truss as PM.

Hilarious that some are still desperately trying to pin Rishi and Hunt's complete failure on the likes of Mogg and Truss. Desperate.

Are they - or are they just implying that things would be even worse were she still PM ?

Mogg is merely thrown is as an example of the utter dross that has been able to find its way into the cabinet.

JosiasJessop said:

nico679 said:

Labours stance on Gaza has been a lot more risky than the Tories continued Islamophobia. Very few Muslims vote Tory so in terms of electoral fallout to their own vote share it’s likely to be low .

The one thing it does though is to help Labour . The Muslim population might not like Labours stance but have been reminded of the alternative .

It also looks very hypocritical of the Tories and their media arse lickers. It’s clear that the Tory party have decided that fermenting division and hate is going to be part of their electoral strategy .

A major difference between Labour's anti-Semitism under Corbyn (which still bubbles under the surface) and The Conservatives Islamaphobia, is that there are far more Muslims in this country (and hence voters) than Jews.

The point both sides miss is reputational damage. If Labour was hurt in 2019 by its (real or perceived) antisemitism, it was not because only Jewish voters were repelled.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

The last line of the thread header seems as out of hope as an England cricket team.

Oops, knackered from yesterday watching Liverpool's under 12s beat Chelsea first team.

Proudest I've ever been about a Liverpool.

(Snip)

This is something I don't understand with sport. How can you feel pride for a sporting team you support? You are not a member of the team; you do not coach or work for the club. You have contributed nothing to the victory. So how can you feel pride?

The supporters are part of the club. In fact, supporters are the only unchanging part of the club as managers come and go and players are transferred in and out; even stadia are ephemeral now.

They're not really part of the club though, are they? I mean, I love Williams F1 team, and I love it when they win (which has not been for many, many years, sadly). I'm even friends with someone who, until a few years back, worked for them. I feel good when they do well. But pride? No.

You feel pride for things you contribute directly to, *your* achievements. Feeling pride for the achievements of others just makes it look as though you've got f-all to be proud of in reality.

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

The last line of the thread header seems as out of hope as an England cricket team.

Oops, knackered from yesterday watching Liverpool's under 12s beat Chelsea first team.

Proudest I've ever been about a Liverpool.

(Snip)

This is something I don't understand with sport. How can you feel pride for a sporting team you support? You are not a member of the team; you do not coach or work for the club. You have contributed nothing to the victory. So how can you feel pride?

The supporters are part of the club. In fact, supporters are the only unchanging part of the club as managers come and go and players are transferred in and out; even stadia are ephemeral now.

They're not really part of the club though, are they? I mean, I love Williams F1 team, and I love it when they win (which has not been for many, many years, sadly). I'm even friends with someone who, until a few years back, worked for them. I feel good when they do well. But pride? No.

You feel pride for things you contribute directly to, *your* achievements. Feeling pride for the achievements of others just makes it look as though you've got f-all to be proud of in reality.

It's a basic human trait to feel a strong emotional bond with things you identify with and have a clear affinity for, and you feel their highs and lows as a consequence.

You can feel pride in friends, colleagues, extended family, community, club and country.

There's nothing unusual about it at all.

First near term case for manufacturing in space.

https://spacenews.com/flawless-photonics-kicking-glass/
Silicon Valley startup Flawless Photonics has produced more than 5 kilometers of ZBLAN on the International Space Station in two weeks.

It’s an achievement that eluded other companies that tried to produce the fluoride glass in microgravity...

..“The moon shot here is making undersea cables with ZBLAN,” said Michael Vestel, Flawless Photonics chief technology officer and vice president.

ZBLAN is far more transparent than silica, the fiber-optic glass in undersea communications cables. Improved transparency translates to less signal attenuation.

So, instead of having inline optical repeaters to boost the signal in submarine communications cables “every 40 or 50 kilometers, you could have them at distances of 10 or 100 times that,” said Vestel, who earned a PhD in materials science and engineering from the University of California, Berkeley. “Why does that matter? It turns out the power of those amplifiers consumes energy on the order of 1 percent to 1.5 percent of the entire global budget of energy.”
..

With current cost into orbit, this is a potentially profitable venture quite soon.

I’d write ‘Good Morning’ but it’s grey and overcast, and India have just beaten England. that result was of course to be expected!
I quite like the suggestion for longer half terms. They have them at the school where my grandson teaches and it seems to be good for him, and his family.

Foxy said:

Chris said:

To be a bit serious, while Sunak doesn't do himself many favours on the likeability front, racism among the white electorate is sure to be playing some part in his unpopularity, and as someone from an Indian Hindu family, he will also be starting with a handicap as far as a significant fraction of the non-white electorate is concerned.

I really don't think that is the case. It's not as if Britain's population has become more racist as Sunaks popularity has plummeted!

Surely there are still some bigots who wouldn't vote for a Hindu PM* but these must only be an odd percent or so, and probably cancelled out by the opposite effect amongst some British South Asians. Certainly that seems true in Leicester.

The reasons that Sunaks government are unpopular are more straightforward. His party is incoherent and split over direction, and he personally is unable to either give it clear leadership or communication.

* same goes for Muslim mayoral candidates too.

There is definitely an element of this: although it is small in absolute size, probably not more than 5% of the electorate, they are votes the Tories can't afford to lose. There was a definite switch of a small bloc of voters from Tory to Reform at exactly the moment Sunak became PM, I think everyone who has lived in this country for any period of time knows exactly what is going on.

kinabalu said:

bigjohnowls said:

Parody Rishi Sunak
@Parody_PM
·
12h
Tory MPs are worried that suspending Lee Anderson might lose us support in the all-important 'thick racist bastard' demographic.

More than a grain.

Or as a former denizen of this site has put it:

"The Tories are making the same mistake that the posh boys around Corbyn made assuming that thick racist Anderson represents the working class as the violent pilfering Ian Lavery fulfilled their stereotypical view of of the proles."

https://twitter.com/ExStrategist/status/1761958555655995521?t=MeCnN0i74zN99RpmtzBMZg&s=19

...

Harper getting into a mess on Radio 4 as Mishal gets to work.

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

The last line of the thread header seems as out of hope as an England cricket team.

Oops, knackered from yesterday watching Liverpool's under 12s beat Chelsea first team.

Proudest I've ever been about a Liverpool.

(Snip)

This is something I don't understand with sport. How can you feel pride for a sporting team you support? You are not a member of the team; you do not coach or work for the club. You have contributed nothing to the victory. So how can you feel pride?

The supporters are part of the club. In fact, supporters are the only unchanging part of the club as managers come and go and players are transferred in and out; even stadia are ephemeral now.

They're not really part of the club though, are they? I mean, I love Williams F1 team, and I love it when they win (which has not been for many, many years, sadly). I'm even friends with someone who, until a few years back, worked for them. I feel good when they do well. But pride? No.

You feel pride for things you contribute directly to, *your* achievements. Feeling pride for the achievements of others just makes it look as though you've got f-all to be proud of in reality.

There wouldn't be a club without those supporters, so of course they contribute, if only in a very small way individually.

Foxy said:

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

FF43 said:

Monksfield said:

Nigelb said:

The Chancellor is planning further cuts to local government funding.

UK public services will buckle under planned spending cuts, economists warn
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/26/uk-public-services-will-buckle-under-planned-spending-cuts-economists-warn

Why do the Tories hate local Government? It’s deeply counterproductive as LG provides many of the services people interact with daily.

My guess Hunt is cutting LG funding to get through the election. This creates headroom for tax cuts now while LG effects will be a little later. It's extremely short term thinking, and arguably salting the earth for the probable next government.

It's not just local government.
Every department except Health, Defence and Overseas Aid is unprotected, so cuts across the board are baked into his spending plans.

Tax cuts before the election in an attempt to mitigate Conservative losses - and an unholy fiscal mess afterwards for the incoming government.

Well, we shall see. So far, I would say that Hunt has been much more of a grown up than that. This is going to be his final legacy after a good and serious career of public service. I don't think that he will do anything ridiculous.

I agree, though that will no doubt inflame relations with the Trussites who think unfunded tax cuts for the rich are the formula for electoral and national prosperity.

The problem isn't really Hunt, who is just managing the books. It's that the government has no real plan for either the state or the economy.
They're just going through the motions.

If Labour have such plans, they are keeping them pretty quiet.

Foxy said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

The last line of the thread header seems as out of hope as an England cricket team.

Oops, knackered from yesterday watching Liverpool's under 12s beat Chelsea first team.

Proudest I've ever been about a Liverpool.

(Snip)

This is something I don't understand with sport. How can you feel pride for a sporting team you support? You are not a member of the team; you do not coach or work for the club. You have contributed nothing to the victory. So how can you feel pride?

The supporters are part of the club. In fact, supporters are the only unchanging part of the club as managers come and go and players are transferred in and out; even stadia are ephemeral now.

They're not really part of the club though, are they? I mean, I love Williams F1 team, and I love it when they win (which has not been for many, many years, sadly). I'm even friends with someone who, until a few years back, worked for them. I feel good when they do well. But pride? No.

You feel pride for things you contribute directly to, *your* achievements. Feeling pride for the achievements of others just makes it look as though you've got f-all to be proud of in reality.

Could you say the same about patriotism? Is it wrong to be proud of Britain?

F*ck Britain I am no part of the made up confection , say what you mean England the last Imperialist power.

Foxy said:

OldKingCole said:

I’d write ‘Good Morning’ but it’s grey and overcast, and India have just beaten England. that result was of course to be expected!
I quite like the suggestion for longer half terms. They have them at the school where my grandson teaches and it seems to be good for him, and his family.

But not longer half terms mid winter surely?

And families need a decent summer break to be able to get away all together.

I have always thought the South African system where provinces stagger their school holidays a good method. It makes their resorts less crowded and is better for both vacationers and for their domestic tourist industry.

Is there any need for Devon and Leics to have the same time off?

Good point; it can be a pain when adjacent authorities have different holidays.

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

The last line of the thread header seems as out of hope as an England cricket team.

Oops, knackered from yesterday watching Liverpool's under 12s beat Chelsea first team.

Proudest I've ever been about a Liverpool.

That chant of Allez, Allez, Allez in extra time will live me for ever.

Did you join in with the "**** the Tories" chant? By all accounts it united the stadium.

JosiasJessop said:

nico679 said:

Labours stance on Gaza has been a lot more risky than the Tories continued Islamophobia. Very few Muslims vote Tory so in terms of electoral fallout to their own vote share it’s likely to be low .

The one thing it does though is to help Labour . The Muslim population might not like Labours stance but have been reminded of the alternative .

It also looks very hypocritical of the Tories and their media arse lickers. It’s clear that the Tory party have decided that fermenting division and hate is going to be part of their electoral strategy .

A major difference between Labour's anti-Semitism under Corbyn (which still bubbles under the surface) and The Conservatives Islamaphobia, is that there are far more Muslims in this country (and hence voters) than Jews.

10x more but neither vote in a block so it's not likely to make much difference.

malcolmg said:

Foxy said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

The last line of the thread header seems as out of hope as an England cricket team.

Oops, knackered from yesterday watching Liverpool's under 12s beat Chelsea first team.

Proudest I've ever been about a Liverpool.

(Snip)

This is something I don't understand with sport. How can you feel pride for a sporting team you support? You are not a member of the team; you do not coach or work for the club. You have contributed nothing to the victory. So how can you feel pride?

The supporters are part of the club. In fact, supporters are the only unchanging part of the club as managers come and go and players are transferred in and out; even stadia are ephemeral now.

They're not really part of the club though, are they? I mean, I love Williams F1 team, and I love it when they win (which has not been for many, many years, sadly). I'm even friends with someone who, until a few years back, worked for them. I feel good when they do well. But pride? No.

You feel pride for things you contribute directly to, *your* achievements. Feeling pride for the achievements of others just makes it look as though you've got f-all to be proud of in reality.

Could you say the same about patriotism? Is it wrong to be proud of Britain?

F*ck Britain I am no part of the made up confection , say what you mean England the last Imperialist power.

France retains a larger empire than Britain. Why aren’t they the last imperialist power?

bondegezou said:

malcolmg said:

Foxy said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

The last line of the thread header seems as out of hope as an England cricket team.

Oops, knackered from yesterday watching Liverpool's under 12s beat Chelsea first team.

Proudest I've ever been about a Liverpool.

(Snip)

This is something I don't understand with sport. How can you feel pride for a sporting team you support? You are not a member of the team; you do not coach or work for the club. You have contributed nothing to the victory. So how can you feel pride?

The supporters are part of the club. In fact, supporters are the only unchanging part of the club as managers come and go and players are transferred in and out; even stadia are ephemeral now.

They're not really part of the club though, are they? I mean, I love Williams F1 team, and I love it when they win (which has not been for many, many years, sadly). I'm even friends with someone who, until a few years back, worked for them. I feel good when they do well. But pride? No.

You feel pride for things you contribute directly to, *your* achievements. Feeling pride for the achievements of others just makes it look as though you've got f-all to be proud of in reality.

Could you say the same about patriotism? Is it wrong to be proud of Britain?

F*ck Britain I am no part of the made up confection , say what you mean England the last Imperialist power.

France retains a larger empire than Britain. Why aren’t they the last imperialist power?

Russia, China, Java all say say hold my beer...

Foxy said:

Heathener said:

Good morning.

I’m not sure what has got into the i newspaper lately.

The opinion polls look nothing like 1992. In the two years leading to the vote there were alternating Conservative and Labour leads, with little or nothing in double-digits for either party. Labour last managed a 10% lead a full year before the GE

In the twelve months leading to the 1992 General Election, the reds and blues alternated opinion poll leads, with neither party having more than a single digit lead in any poll:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1992_United_Kingdom_general_election

This time we haven’t seen a Conservative opinion poll lead of any sort since December 2021. Instead, Labour have been regularly polling double digit leads, and often above 20% with the Conservative Party’s share of the vote between 10% and 20% lower than anything in the run up to 1992.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

The media would love this to be a closer race than it looks like being and will print any old rubbish if it makes their wish come true.

It serves all media, all political parties and all political pollsters to talk up a close race, and it may even be true, but I think not.

'Sunak to be PM after next GE' is 7/1 with Hills. Punters are giving him a real and significant chance, as compared with the obvious conclusion to be drawn from polling. This should have him at about 33/1.

Oddly 33/1 is what Hills have for 'Tories to lose 1-50 seats (20/1 for 51-100 seats).

That looks to me like a real gap in the betting markets. can this be explained?

Personally I think Sunak's chance of being PM after the next election is about Zero, while the chance of NOM (but a Labour led government) is significant. This is on the basis that if the friendless Tories lose only 55 seats (310) they won't be allowed by the 340 others (324 approx allowing for SF and DUP) to form a government.

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - I can't recall who posted it but whatever you think of Matthew Goodwin that exchange between him and Portillo on GB News was excellent.

A must watch.

Oh goodness, you've not succumbed to Fox News GBeebies?

algarkirk said:

Foxy said:

Heathener said:

Good morning.

I’m not sure what has got into the i newspaper lately.

The opinion polls look nothing like 1992. In the two years leading to the vote there were alternating Conservative and Labour leads, with little or nothing in double-digits for either party. Labour last managed a 10% lead a full year before the GE

In the twelve months leading to the 1992 General Election, the reds and blues alternated opinion poll leads, with neither party having more than a single digit lead in any poll:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1992_United_Kingdom_general_election

This time we haven’t seen a Conservative opinion poll lead of any sort since December 2021. Instead, Labour have been regularly polling double digit leads, and often above 20% with the Conservative Party’s share of the vote between 10% and 20% lower than anything in the run up to 1992.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

The media would love this to be a closer race than it looks like being and will print any old rubbish if it makes their wish come true.

It serves all media, all political parties and all political pollsters to talk up a close race, and it may even be true, but I think not.

'Sunak to be PM after next GE' is 7/1 with Hills. Punters are giving him a real and significant chance, as compared with the obvious conclusion to be drawn from polling. This should have him at about 33/1.

Oddly 33/1 is what Hills have for 'Tories to lose 1-50 seats (20/1 for 51-100 seats).

That looks to me like a real gap in the betting markets. can this be explained?

Personally I think Sunak's chance of being PM after the next election is about Zero, while the chance of NOM (but a Labour led government) is significant. This is on the basis that if the friendless Tories lose only 55 seats (310) they won't be allowed by the 340 others (324 approx allowing for SF and DUP) to form a government.

First guess at a theory:

"Next PM" is a simpler bet than "number of MP lost by the Conservatives" and attracts more simpler punters getting it wrong.

If anything, PM Sunak should be longer odds, to cover the (small but non zero) possibility that he's not the candidate.

algarkirk said:

Foxy said:

Heathener said:

Good morning.

I’m not sure what has got into the i newspaper lately.

The opinion polls look nothing like 1992. In the two years leading to the vote there were alternating Conservative and Labour leads, with little or nothing in double-digits for either party. Labour last managed a 10% lead a full year before the GE

In the twelve months leading to the 1992 General Election, the reds and blues alternated opinion poll leads, with neither party having more than a single digit lead in any poll:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1992_United_Kingdom_general_election

This time we haven’t seen a Conservative opinion poll lead of any sort since December 2021. Instead, Labour have been regularly polling double digit leads, and often above 20% with the Conservative Party’s share of the vote between 10% and 20% lower than anything in the run up to 1992.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

The media would love this to be a closer race than it looks like being and will print any old rubbish if it makes their wish come true.

It serves all media, all political parties and all political pollsters to talk up a close race, and it may even be true, but I think not.

'Sunak to be PM after next GE' is 7/1 with Hills. Punters are giving him a real and significant chance, as compared with the obvious conclusion to be drawn from polling. This should have him at about 33/1.

Oddly 33/1 is what Hills have for 'Tories to lose 1-50 seats (20/1 for 51-100 seats).

That looks to me like a real gap in the betting markets. can this be explained?

Personally I think Sunak's chance of being PM after the next election is about Zero, while the chance of NOM (but a Labour led government) is significant. This is on the basis that if the friendless Tories lose only 55 seats (310) they won't be allowed by the 340 others (324 approx allowing for SF and DUP) to form a government.

If the Tories only lose 55 seats Rishi will have performed miracles and I just can’t see him doing it

Foxy said:

bondegezou said:

malcolmg said:

Foxy said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

The last line of the thread header seems as out of hope as an England cricket team.

Oops, knackered from yesterday watching Liverpool's under 12s beat Chelsea first team.

Proudest I've ever been about a Liverpool.

(Snip)

This is something I don't understand with sport. How can you feel pride for a sporting team you support? You are not a member of the team; you do not coach or work for the club. You have contributed nothing to the victory. So how can you feel pride?

The supporters are part of the club. In fact, supporters are the only unchanging part of the club as managers come and go and players are transferred in and out; even stadia are ephemeral now.

They're not really part of the club though, are they? I mean, I love Williams F1 team, and I love it when they win (which has not been for many, many years, sadly). I'm even friends with someone who, until a few years back, worked for them. I feel good when they do well. But pride? No.

You feel pride for things you contribute directly to, *your* achievements. Feeling pride for the achievements of others just makes it look as though you've got f-all to be proud of in reality.

Could you say the same about patriotism? Is it wrong to be proud of Britain?

F*ck Britain I am no part of the made up confection , say what you mean England the last Imperialist power.

France retains a larger empire than Britain. Why aren’t they the last imperialist power?

Russia, China, Java all say say hold my beer...

Hold on, if France, Britain, Russia, China and Indonesia are imperialist powers, then why not the US? Or Canada, Australia, India, Pakistan, Brazil, Mexico, I mean you could make a long list of big countries...