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Why we are unikely to see a 1992 redux – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,186
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    AI could mechanise your PB output in about 3 minutes

    “Bang on about Brexit”

    “Say Richi instead of Rishi”

    “Occasionally mention sports or general politics.
    But in a slightly boring way”

    Sorted

    You're saying you'd take five ?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,469
    mwadams said:

    TOPPING said:

    nico679 said:

    TOPPING said:

    This is the nearest I could find to some stats (ok it was the first google result don't shoot me).

    70% vs 9% in what are presumably "normal" times. Edit: 70% Muslim labour voters vs 9% Cons

    https://muslimcensus.co.uk/labour-losing-muslim-vote/

    No idea of sample sizes, methodology, etc.

    It makes Lab's stance on Gaza seem even more "brave". I mean we can rule out them actually holding a sincere position on the matter, can't we.

    That’s a massive drop for Labour . They might get a little back now they’ve moved their position and the Anderson story does help them to re-inforce their support for the Muslim community .
    Fag packet: 2m Muslims, 50% adults = 1m. Previously 700k Lab, 90,000 Cons.

    I don't suppose losing 700k votes is too traumatic for Lab across all constituencies (there will of course be concentrations perhaps someone can do the math to see where).
    Thing is that you need a seat to have lots of Muslim voters and be at least a bit marginal for it to matter. There are a few seats like that (Peterborough is one) but not many.
    Keighley. The Muslim voters in Keighley counterbalance the Poshos in Ilkley.
    We were staying up in Howarth last week and got a Tory leaflet while we were there.

    1. It didn't mention the conservatives or prominently feature any logo
    2. It did mention Rishi Sunak which was a surprise
    3. It had some Labour-attack copy. It was so badly put together that a quick glance suggested that Starmer was going to give everyone £2,000 unless you read the details.
    Got a Labour leaflet at the weekend. I'm in London, so we've got Mayor/Assembly elections in May, whether or not there's a general. Leaflet was from the Labour candidate for the Assembly constituency.

    My three takeaways from the leaflet were: (1) it's from Labour, (2) the candidate is local, (3) poorly designed (big blocks of text in a tiny font size).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,407
    edited February 26
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Air Force man sets himself on fire outside Israeli embassy in Washington DC

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68398479
    A member of the US Air Force is in a critical condition after setting himself on fire in front of the Israeli embassy in Washington.
    Officers from the US Secret Service extinguished the flames before the man was taken to hospital on Sunday afternoon with serious injuries.
    The US Air Force confirmed an active-duty serviceman was involved but he has not been identified.
    The police, the Secret Service and other authorities are investigating.
    In a video that was live streamed on Twitch, the man identified himself and said he was a serving member of the Air Force.
    Before setting himself on fire, he said he would "no longer be complicit in genocide" and he was heard shouting "Free Palestine" as he burned..

    The video - apparently made my himself and others - is utterly horrendous. NSFW
    I've found a censored version, the most curious part is that the first person who gets to him decides the best course of action is to point a gun at him rather than grabbing a fire extinguisher or some such.

    What sort of mindset do you have to point a gun at someone on fire rather than helping to put them out ?

    It's telling tbh.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972

    Jonathan said:

    FPT - I can't recall who posted it but whatever you think of Matthew Goodwin that exchange between him and Portillo on GB News was excellent.

    A must watch.

    Oh goodness, you've not succumbed to Fox News GBeebies?
    Have you seen the clip?

    Try it. Sometimes even I think Channel4 and The Guardian has a point.
    I thought it was very disappointing. I'm quite a fan of Portillo and though he added very little I at least expected him to conduct a debate that might bring something insightful from Goodwin.

    Goodwins argument was quite simply that the David Amess killing and the Arena bombing were both carried out by islamists so call it as it is; have an immediate halt on immigration and declare war on Islam.

    Where this falls down Is that Amess was killed by a man born and brought up in southwalk who apparently had very little religion in his upbringing and the Arena bombing by someone born and brought up in Rushome

    Anyone know how you apply for a professorship these days?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,575
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    More outrageous techno-doomerism from the Spec

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ai-just-exploded-again/

    @Leon I'm fascinated by the finances of stuff I know nothing about. Do you get paid a shed load for each article or are there dozens more that you don't link to here? I think I get the novel writing. I didn't get the finances of travel writing until I asked you here and you provided the details - Thanks. But I don't get the article writing. I understand how a celebrity like Boris gets a lot for say a one weekly article because he is paid for his name and there are other less well known people knocking out columns daily, but can you make a living doing occasional stuff or do you have to combine it with other stuff. Typically what is your weekly output and are you doing this in parallel with writing another novel?
    You’d have to ask the actual author

    Tho given that his articles nearly always enter the top 5 “most read” - like that one - and often reach the top, I presume his editors are happy, hence they keep taking his ideas (often shamelessly stolen from here, let it be said)
    I don't know the author to ask him but I believe you bump into him a lot so have probably exchanged thoughts.

    Is this his bread and butter stuff while doing longer term projects or is this his main job? How does he split work between this and travel writing and other stuff? Is he writing another novel currently or even doing some other long term project? Does his travel writing (or anything else) appear elsewhere eg in promotional stuff?
    Speaking as a humble gazette writer I can only guess. But my guess is he does this as a side-hustle along with larger projects that pay more - virtually all freelance writers have to do this. Vanishingly few can make a nice living from a single column with one paper/magazine

    They are a dying breed. Boris will possibly be the last - no joke

    However there is a prestige attached to writing for a famous mag like the spectator - more indeed than for most newspapers - and that prestige leads to higher profile and other work. So it is worth it for nearly any writer - hence the famous names they can recruit
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834

    I think a 1992 style result is actually less of a chance than a complete Tory collapse - it feels to me there is still significant risk that they could leach further votes to Reform.

    Indeed there is still a chance there could be a Tory-Reform crossover, in my view.

    A crossover is very unlikely this side of an election. Institutional and voter inertia is a powerful thing.

    However, the chance of a major realignment after the election is quite realistic; that realignment could take a number of different forms, with Reform directly replacing the Tories being one of the less likely.
    I would normally agree re the inertia. But I am not entirely convinced, if the Tories have a bad campaign and more people become aware of Reform, that they would be able to stem the flow in that situation.

    It’s a change election. That benefits Labour, but it also potentially benefits others filling the right wing space.
    That's a mighty big "if".

    Reform will do well to get much of a hearing in the election, whereas the Tories will get major coverage. Even if Farage returns to lead them (which is probable if they continue to poll double-digits), Reform still have to eat deep into the Tory core vote, when the Tories will be ahead in the polls, have a local presence and be - on the basis of previous elections - the alternative to Labour. I just think it's too much, too soon given all the advantages of local and national incumbency and the dynamics of FPTP.

    Bu after the election, all sorts of things are possible.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,121
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    More outrageous techno-doomerism from the Spec

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ai-just-exploded-again/

    @Leon I'm fascinated by the finances of stuff I know nothing about. Do you get paid a shed load for each article or are there dozens more that you don't link to here? I think I get the novel writing. I didn't get the finances of travel writing until I asked you here and you provided the details - Thanks. But I don't get the article writing. I understand how a celebrity like Boris gets a lot for say a one weekly article because he is paid for his name and there are other less well known people knocking out columns daily, but can you make a living doing occasional stuff or do you have to combine it with other stuff. Typically what is your weekly output and are you doing this in parallel with writing another novel?
    You’d have to ask the actual author

    Tho given that his articles nearly always enter the top 5 “most read” - like that one - and often reach the top, I presume his editors are happy, hence they keep taking his ideas (often shamelessly stolen from here, let it be said)
    I don't know the author to ask him but I believe you bump into him a lot so have probably exchanged thoughts.

    Is this his bread and butter stuff while doing longer term projects or is this his main job? How does he split work between this and travel writing and other stuff? Is he writing another novel currently or even doing some other long term project? Does his travel writing (or anything else) appear elsewhere eg in promotional stuff?
    Last figures for Speccie that NUJ reported (way back in 2020) were 1000 words for £250.

    One has to be a Viv Groskop to earn a full living just freelancing to weekly mags etc.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,942
    edited February 26
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    More outrageous techno-doomerism from the Spec

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ai-just-exploded-again/

    @Leon I'm fascinated by the finances of stuff I know nothing about. Do you get paid a shed load for each article or are there dozens more that you don't link to here? I think I get the novel writing. I didn't get the finances of travel writing until I asked you here and you provided the details - Thanks. But I don't get the article writing. I understand how a celebrity like Boris gets a lot for say a one weekly article because he is paid for his name and there are other less well known people knocking out columns daily, but can you make a living doing occasional stuff or do you have to combine it with other stuff. Typically what is your weekly output and are you doing this in parallel with writing another novel?
    You’d have to ask the actual author

    Tho given that his articles nearly always enter the top 5 “most read” - like that one - and often reach the top, I presume his editors are happy, hence they keep taking his ideas (often shamelessly stolen from here, let it be said)
    I don't know the author to ask him but I believe you bump into him a lot so have probably exchanged thoughts.

    Is this his bread and butter stuff while doing longer term projects or is this his main job? How does he split work between this and travel writing and other stuff? Is he writing another novel currently or even doing some other long term project? Does his travel writing (or anything else) appear elsewhere eg in promotional stuff?
    Speaking as a humble gazette writer I can only guess. But my guess is he does this as a side-hustle along with larger projects that pay more - virtually all freelance writers have to do this. Vanishingly few can make a nice living from a single column with one paper/magazine

    They are a dying breed. Boris will possibly be the last - no joke

    However there is a prestige attached to writing for a famous mag like the spectator - more indeed than for most newspapers - and that prestige leads to higher profile and other work. So it is worth it for nearly any writer - hence the famous names they can recruit
    Thanks @Leon . Appreciated. Give my regards to the author when you next see him.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,121
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    More outrageous techno-doomerism from the Spec

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ai-just-exploded-again/

    @Leon I'm fascinated by the finances of stuff I know nothing about. Do you get paid a shed load for each article or are there dozens more that you don't link to here? I think I get the novel writing. I didn't get the finances of travel writing until I asked you here and you provided the details - Thanks. But I don't get the article writing. I understand how a celebrity like Boris gets a lot for say a one weekly article because he is paid for his name and there are other less well known people knocking out columns daily, but can you make a living doing occasional stuff or do you have to combine it with other stuff. Typically what is your weekly output and are you doing this in parallel with writing another novel?
    You’d have to ask the actual author

    Tho given that his articles nearly always enter the top 5 “most read” - like that one - and often reach the top, I presume his editors are happy, hence they keep taking his ideas (often shamelessly stolen from here, let it be said)
    I don't know the author to ask him but I believe you bump into him a lot so have probably exchanged thoughts.

    Is this his bread and butter stuff while doing longer term projects or is this his main job? How does he split work between this and travel writing and other stuff? Is he writing another novel currently or even doing some other long term project? Does his travel writing (or anything else) appear elsewhere eg in promotional stuff?
    Speaking as a humble gazette writer I can only guess. But my guess is he does this as a side-hustle along with larger projects that pay more - virtually all freelance writers have to do this. Vanishingly few can make a nice living from a single column with one paper/magazine

    They are a dying breed. Boris will possibly be the last - no joke

    However there is a prestige attached to writing for a famous mag like the spectator - more indeed than for most newspapers - and that prestige leads to higher profile and other work. So it is worth it for nearly any writer - hence the famous names they can recruit
    Boris of course has a side hustle of speaking to rooms full of semi-drunk after dinner business people.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,469
    .
    Roger said:

    Jonathan said:

    FPT - I can't recall who posted it but whatever you think of Matthew Goodwin that exchange between him and Portillo on GB News was excellent.

    A must watch.

    Oh goodness, you've not succumbed to Fox News GBeebies?
    Have you seen the clip?

    Try it. Sometimes even I think Channel4 and The Guardian has a point.
    I thought it was very disappointing. I'm quite a fan of Portillo and though he added very little I at least expected him to conduct a debate that might bring something insightful from Goodwin.

    Goodwins argument was quite simply that the David Amess killing and the Arena bombing were both carried out by islamists so call it as it is; have an immediate halt on immigration and declare war on Islam.

    Where this falls down Is that Amess was killed by a man born and brought up in southwalk who apparently had very little religion in his upbringing and the Arena bombing by someone born and brought up in Rushome

    Anyone know how you apply for a professorship these days?
    https://www.jobs.ac.uk/search/?keywords=professor&location= :smile:

    But I think Goodwin became a professor before he went off the rails. As sometimes happens to professors.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,575
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    More outrageous techno-doomerism from the Spec

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ai-just-exploded-again/

    @Leon I'm fascinated by the finances of stuff I know nothing about. Do you get paid a shed load for each article or are there dozens more that you don't link to here? I think I get the novel writing. I didn't get the finances of travel writing until I asked you here and you provided the details - Thanks. But I don't get the article writing. I understand how a celebrity like Boris gets a lot for say a one weekly article because he is paid for his name and there are other less well known people knocking out columns daily, but can you make a living doing occasional stuff or do you have to combine it with other stuff. Typically what is your weekly output and are you doing this in parallel with writing another novel?
    You’d have to ask the actual author

    Tho given that his articles nearly always enter the top 5 “most read” - like that one - and often reach the top, I presume his editors are happy, hence they keep taking his ideas (often shamelessly stolen from here, let it be said)
    I don't know the author to ask him but I believe you bump into him a lot so have probably exchanged thoughts.

    Is this his bread and butter stuff while doing longer term projects or is this his main job? How does he split work between this and travel writing and other stuff? Is he writing another novel currently or even doing some other long term project? Does his travel writing (or anything else) appear elsewhere eg in promotional stuff?
    Speaking as a humble gazette writer I can only guess. But my guess is he does this as a side-hustle along with larger projects that pay more - virtually all freelance writers have to do this. Vanishingly few can make a nice living from a single column with one paper/magazine

    They are a dying breed. Boris will possibly be the last - no joke

    However there is a prestige attached to writing for a famous mag like the spectator - more indeed than for most newspapers - and that prestige leads to higher profile and other work. So it is worth it for nearly any writer - hence the famous names they can recruit
    Thanks @Leon . Appreciated. Give my regards to the author when you next see him.
    I shall

    I remember reading that when Ian Fleming was the foreign editor of the Sunday times he earned something like the equivalent of £400,000 yearly

    My memory might be hazy - was it Fleming? Was it the ST? - but I recall it was an astonishing sum. Or was it le carre?

    Anyway - big journalists used to make squillions - newspapers were so profitable. So the major hacks could easily hangout with the bankers and the politicians and they were all loaded

    Long gone now
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    TOPPING said:

    148grss said:

    malcolmg said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    The last line of the thread header seems as out of hope as an England cricket team.

    Oops, knackered from yesterday watching Liverpool's under 12s beat Chelsea first team.

    Proudest I've ever been about a Liverpool.

    (Snip)
    This is something I don't understand with sport. How can you feel pride for a sporting team you support? You are not a member of the team; you do not coach or work for the club. You have contributed nothing to the victory. So how can you feel pride?
    The supporters are part of the club. In fact, supporters are the only unchanging part of the club as managers come and go and players are transferred in and out; even stadia are ephemeral now.
    They're not really part of the club though, are they? I mean, I love Williams F1 team, and I love it when they win (which has not been for many, many years, sadly). I'm even friends with someone who, until a few years back, worked for them. I feel good when they do well. But pride? No.

    You feel pride for things you contribute directly to, *your* achievements. Feeling pride for the achievements of others just makes it look as though you've got f-all to be proud of in reality.
    Could you say the same about patriotism? Is it wrong to be proud of Britain?
    F*ck Britain I am no part of the made up confection , say what you mean England the last Imperialist power.
    France retains a larger empire than Britain. Why aren’t they the last imperialist power?
    There are quite a few other countries / states that I would consider imperialist - including those mentioned by others (although some of them are just colonial projects, such as Canada and Australia, rather than imperial states of their own). The distinction I would make about Britain is that we are, in many ways, the heart of (modern) imperial political thought, with the British model of imperialism being the dominant mode of doing empire (dominant here doesn't just mean the biggest, although it was for a time, but also meaning in a pseudo-evolutionary sense the fittest form that survived). The US Empire, for example, is very similar in form to aspects of the British Empire - not actually directly controlling the land or people's in question, but functionally controlling or making sure that the political class are sympathetic to US policy.

    There is also a lot to be said about whether Britain has confronted their role in Empire as much as some other countries - which I would suggest we haven't in mass culture given that most British people still consider the British Empire as a net positive to the world. I had, at one point, considered Germany a good example of a people who looked at their history squarely - but given some rhetoric and state acts since October 7th it seems that the extent of the lessons of the holocaust in Germany (and much of the western world, alas) is that such horrors will never again happen to Jewish people again, but for anyone else it is fine...
    You are saying that there is an ongoing holocaust in Gaza. Have I got that right.
    I wouldn't use the word holocaust, as that is typically used for that specific event in history now, but I would say a genocide and ethnic cleansing, yes. Obviously the ICJ will investigate the matter further, but the fact they are taking the investigation further is a sign of the seriousness they are taking it based on the evidence already presented.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,670

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    More outrageous techno-doomerism from the Spec

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ai-just-exploded-again/

    @Leon I'm fascinated by the finances of stuff I know nothing about. Do you get paid a shed load for each article or are there dozens more that you don't link to here? I think I get the novel writing. I didn't get the finances of travel writing until I asked you here and you provided the details - Thanks. But I don't get the article writing. I understand how a celebrity like Boris gets a lot for say a one weekly article because he is paid for his name and there are other less well known people knocking out columns daily, but can you make a living doing occasional stuff or do you have to combine it with other stuff. Typically what is your weekly output and are you doing this in parallel with writing another novel?
    You’d have to ask the actual author

    Tho given that his articles nearly always enter the top 5 “most read” - like that one - and often reach the top, I presume his editors are happy, hence they keep taking his ideas (often shamelessly stolen from here, let it be said)
    I don't know the author to ask him but I believe you bump into him a lot so have probably exchanged thoughts.

    Is this his bread and butter stuff while doing longer term projects or is this his main job? How does he split work between this and travel writing and other stuff? Is he writing another novel currently or even doing some other long term project? Does his travel writing (or anything else) appear elsewhere eg in promotional stuff?
    Last figures for Speccie that NUJ reported (way back in 2020) were 1000 words for £250.

    One has to be a Viv Groskop to earn a full living just freelancing to weekly mags etc.
    £250-£500 for 1k seems about average for assorted minor gazettes, monthlies and bulletins. Which "by the hour" is pretty decent if you are an efficient word-cranker, but not 'regular income'.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,036

    They never learn do they? Do some local radio, PM. It'll be a breeze etc etc.

    Kevin Schofield
    @KevinASchofield
    ·
    2h
    Rishi Sunak definitely not enjoying this great interrogation by Scott Dalton on Radio Lincolnshire.

    Well for the local radio DJ round of interviews it is the chance for a total nobody to get a bit of free airtime and raise their profile.

    A punchline that writes itself.

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,469
    edited February 26

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    More outrageous techno-doomerism from the Spec

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ai-just-exploded-again/

    @Leon I'm fascinated by the finances of stuff I know nothing about. Do you get paid a shed load for each article or are there dozens more that you don't link to here? I think I get the novel writing. I didn't get the finances of travel writing until I asked you here and you provided the details - Thanks. But I don't get the article writing. I understand how a celebrity like Boris gets a lot for say a one weekly article because he is paid for his name and there are other less well known people knocking out columns daily, but can you make a living doing occasional stuff or do you have to combine it with other stuff. Typically what is your weekly output and are you doing this in parallel with writing another novel?
    You’d have to ask the actual author

    Tho given that his articles nearly always enter the top 5 “most read” - like that one - and often reach the top, I presume his editors are happy, hence they keep taking his ideas (often shamelessly stolen from here, let it be said)
    I don't know the author to ask him but I believe you bump into him a lot so have probably exchanged thoughts.

    Is this his bread and butter stuff while doing longer term projects or is this his main job? How does he split work between this and travel writing and other stuff? Is he writing another novel currently or even doing some other long term project? Does his travel writing (or anything else) appear elsewhere eg in promotional stuff?
    Last figures for Speccie that NUJ reported (way back in 2020) were 1000 words for £250.

    One has to be a Viv Groskop to earn a full living just freelancing to weekly mags etc.
    Well, it's not like Spectator writers spend much time on research or fact-checking, so that cuts down the time that has to be spent on the work.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    More outrageous techno-doomerism from the Spec

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ai-just-exploded-again/

    @Leon I'm fascinated by the finances of stuff I know nothing about. Do you get paid a shed load for each article or are there dozens more that you don't link to here? I think I get the novel writing. I didn't get the finances of travel writing until I asked you here and you provided the details - Thanks. But I don't get the article writing. I understand how a celebrity like Boris gets a lot for say a one weekly article because he is paid for his name and there are other less well known people knocking out columns daily, but can you make a living doing occasional stuff or do you have to combine it with other stuff. Typically what is your weekly output and are you doing this in parallel with writing another novel?
    You’d have to ask the actual author

    Tho given that his articles nearly always enter the top 5 “most read” - like that one - and often reach the top, I presume his editors are happy, hence they keep taking his ideas (often shamelessly stolen from here, let it be said)
    I don't know the author to ask him but I believe you bump into him a lot so have probably exchanged thoughts.

    Is this his bread and butter stuff while doing longer term projects or is this his main job? How does he split work between this and travel writing and other stuff? Is he writing another novel currently or even doing some other long term project? Does his travel writing (or anything else) appear elsewhere eg in promotional stuff?
    Speaking as a humble gazette writer I can only guess. But my guess is he does this as a side-hustle along with larger projects that pay more - virtually all freelance writers have to do this. Vanishingly few can make a nice living from a single column with one paper/magazine

    They are a dying breed. Boris will possibly be the last - no joke

    However there is a prestige attached to writing for a famous mag like the spectator - more indeed than for most newspapers - and that prestige leads to higher profile and other work. So it is worth it for nearly any writer - hence the famous names they can recruit
    Thanks @Leon . Appreciated. Give my regards to the author when you next see him.
    I shall

    I remember reading that when Ian Fleming was the foreign editor of the Sunday times he earned something like the equivalent of £400,000 yearly

    My memory might be hazy - was it Fleming? Was it the ST? - but I recall it was an astonishing sum. Or was it le carre?

    Anyway - big journalists used to make squillions - newspapers were so profitable. So the major hacks could easily hangout with the bankers and the politicians and they were all loaded

    Long gone now
    Interesting stuff, thanks.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,036

    mwadams said:

    TOPPING said:

    nico679 said:

    TOPPING said:

    This is the nearest I could find to some stats (ok it was the first google result don't shoot me).

    70% vs 9% in what are presumably "normal" times. Edit: 70% Muslim labour voters vs 9% Cons

    https://muslimcensus.co.uk/labour-losing-muslim-vote/

    No idea of sample sizes, methodology, etc.

    It makes Lab's stance on Gaza seem even more "brave". I mean we can rule out them actually holding a sincere position on the matter, can't we.

    That’s a massive drop for Labour . They might get a little back now they’ve moved their position and the Anderson story does help them to re-inforce their support for the Muslim community .
    Fag packet: 2m Muslims, 50% adults = 1m. Previously 700k Lab, 90,000 Cons.

    I don't suppose losing 700k votes is too traumatic for Lab across all constituencies (there will of course be concentrations perhaps someone can do the math to see where).
    Thing is that you need a seat to have lots of Muslim voters and be at least a bit marginal for it to matter. There are a few seats like that (Peterborough is one) but not many.
    Keighley. The Muslim voters in Keighley counterbalance the Poshos in Ilkley.
    We were staying up in Howarth last week and got a Tory leaflet while we were there.

    1. It didn't mention the conservatives or prominently feature any logo
    2. It did mention Rishi Sunak which was a surprise
    3. It had some Labour-attack copy. It was so badly put together that a quick glance suggested that Starmer was going to give everyone £2,000 unless you read the details.
    Got a Labour leaflet at the weekend. I'm in London, so we've got Mayor/Assembly elections in May, whether or not there's a general. Leaflet was from the Labour candidate for the Assembly constituency.

    My three takeaways from the leaflet were: (1) it's from Labour, (2) the candidate is local, (3) poorly designed (big blocks of text in a tiny font size).
    We have a mayoral election in the north east. Supposedly more close run than yours, from the odds, not had anything from any candidate.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    More outrageous techno-doomerism from the Spec

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ai-just-exploded-again/

    @Leon I'm fascinated by the finances of stuff I know nothing about. Do you get paid a shed load for each article or are there dozens more that you don't link to here? I think I get the novel writing. I didn't get the finances of travel writing until I asked you here and you provided the details - Thanks. But I don't get the article writing. I understand how a celebrity like Boris gets a lot for say a one weekly article because he is paid for his name and there are other less well known people knocking out columns daily, but can you make a living doing occasional stuff or do you have to combine it with other stuff. Typically what is your weekly output and are you doing this in parallel with writing another novel?
    You’d have to ask the actual author

    Tho given that his articles nearly always enter the top 5 “most read” - like that one - and often reach the top, I presume his editors are happy, hence they keep taking his ideas (often shamelessly stolen from here, let it be said)
    I don't know the author to ask him but I believe you bump into him a lot so have probably exchanged thoughts.

    Is this his bread and butter stuff while doing longer term projects or is this his main job? How does he split work between this and travel writing and other stuff? Is he writing another novel currently or even doing some other long term project? Does his travel writing (or anything else) appear elsewhere eg in promotional stuff?
    Last figures for Speccie that NUJ reported (way back in 2020) were 1000 words for £250.

    One has to be a Viv Groskop to earn a full living just freelancing to weekly mags etc.
    About the same as for PB.com then.

    Oh... are you guys not getting paid for your contribs?
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    edited February 26

    148grss said:

    malcolmg said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    The last line of the thread header seems as out of hope as an England cricket team.

    Oops, knackered from yesterday watching Liverpool's under 12s beat Chelsea first team.

    Proudest I've ever been about a Liverpool.

    (Snip)
    This is something I don't understand with sport. How can you feel pride for a sporting team you support? You are not a member of the team; you do not coach or work for the club. You have contributed nothing to the victory. So how can you feel pride?
    The supporters are part of the club. In fact, supporters are the only unchanging part of the club as managers come and go and players are transferred in and out; even stadia are ephemeral now.
    They're not really part of the club though, are they? I mean, I love Williams F1 team, and I love it when they win (which has not been for many, many years, sadly). I'm even friends with someone who, until a few years back, worked for them. I feel good when they do well. But pride? No.

    You feel pride for things you contribute directly to, *your* achievements. Feeling pride for the achievements of others just makes it look as though you've got f-all to be proud of in reality.
    Could you say the same about patriotism? Is it wrong to be proud of Britain?
    F*ck Britain I am no part of the made up confection , say what you mean England the last Imperialist power.
    France retains a larger empire than Britain. Why aren’t they the last imperialist power?
    There are quite a few other countries / states that I would consider imperialist - including those mentioned by others (although some of them are just colonial projects, such as Canada and Australia, rather than imperial states of their own). The distinction I would make about Britain is that we are, in many ways, the heart of (modern) imperial political thought, with the British model of imperialism being the dominant mode of doing empire (dominant here doesn't just mean the biggest, although it was for a time, but also meaning in a pseudo-evolutionary sense the fittest form that survived). The US Empire, for example, is very similar in form to aspects of the British Empire - not actually directly controlling the land or people's in question, but functionally controlling or making sure that the political class are sympathetic to US policy.

    There is also a lot to be said about whether Britain has confronted their role in Empire as much as some other countries - which I would suggest we haven't in mass culture given that most British people still consider the British Empire as a net positive to the world. I had, at one point, considered Germany a good example of a people who looked at their history squarely - but given some rhetoric and state acts since October 7th it seems that the extent of the lessons of the holocaust in Germany (and much of the western world, alas) is that such horrors will never again happen to Jewish people again, but for anyone else it is fine...
    https://yougov.co.uk/international/articles/28355-how-unique-are-british-attitudes-empire has polling. It does not suggest "that most British people still consider the British Empire as a net positive to the world", although they ask a slightly different question. The Dutch are way ahead of us in their love for Empire. (I am one quarter descended from Dutch colonial rulers.)
    Yeah the Dutch West India Company was similar to the British East India in brutality even if it didn't cover the same geographic area. I also occasionally see stories about statues of King Leopold in Belgium and have read King Leopold's Ghost, which clearly explains the mass murder and violence in Belgium controlled Congo.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,949
    edited February 26
    O/T

    Just found a really good YouTube channel for documentaries, with subjects like MH370, DB Cooper, etc. The videos seem like an amateur production but done in almost a professional way, if that makes any sense.

    https://www.youtube.com/@LEMMiNO/videos
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,942

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    More outrageous techno-doomerism from the Spec

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ai-just-exploded-again/

    @Leon I'm fascinated by the finances of stuff I know nothing about. Do you get paid a shed load for each article or are there dozens more that you don't link to here? I think I get the novel writing. I didn't get the finances of travel writing until I asked you here and you provided the details - Thanks. But I don't get the article writing. I understand how a celebrity like Boris gets a lot for say a one weekly article because he is paid for his name and there are other less well known people knocking out columns daily, but can you make a living doing occasional stuff or do you have to combine it with other stuff. Typically what is your weekly output and are you doing this in parallel with writing another novel?
    You’d have to ask the actual author

    Tho given that his articles nearly always enter the top 5 “most read” - like that one - and often reach the top, I presume his editors are happy, hence they keep taking his ideas (often shamelessly stolen from here, let it be said)
    I don't know the author to ask him but I believe you bump into him a lot so have probably exchanged thoughts.

    Is this his bread and butter stuff while doing longer term projects or is this his main job? How does he split work between this and travel writing and other stuff? Is he writing another novel currently or even doing some other long term project? Does his travel writing (or anything else) appear elsewhere eg in promotional stuff?
    Speaking as a humble gazette writer I can only guess. But my guess is he does this as a side-hustle along with larger projects that pay more - virtually all freelance writers have to do this. Vanishingly few can make a nice living from a single column with one paper/magazine

    They are a dying breed. Boris will possibly be the last - no joke

    However there is a prestige attached to writing for a famous mag like the spectator - more indeed than for most newspapers - and that prestige leads to higher profile and other work. So it is worth it for nearly any writer - hence the famous names they can recruit
    Thanks @Leon . Appreciated. Give my regards to the author when you next see him.
    I shall

    I remember reading that when Ian Fleming was the foreign editor of the Sunday times he earned something like the equivalent of £400,000 yearly

    My memory might be hazy - was it Fleming? Was it the ST? - but I recall it was an astonishing sum. Or was it le carre?

    Anyway - big journalists used to make squillions - newspapers were so profitable. So the major hacks could easily hangout with the bankers and the politicians and they were all loaded

    Long gone now
    Interesting stuff, thanks.
    Yes. I'm glad I asked. It is nice to get an insight into areas I am not familiar with.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805

    They never learn do they? Do some local radio, PM. It'll be a breeze etc etc.

    Kevin Schofield
    @KevinASchofield
    ·
    2h
    Rishi Sunak definitely not enjoying this great interrogation by Scott Dalton on Radio Lincolnshire.

    Come on Rotten, at least put a link to the tweet if you're going to quote them. It's not hard.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,955
    Good morning, everyone.

    Betting Post

    F1: backed Perez each way to win (with boost) in Bahrain at 14, third the odds top 2. Red Bull looks fastest again. He also tends to do well at Bahrain.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,865
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    More outrageous techno-doomerism from the Spec

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ai-just-exploded-again/

    @Leon I'm fascinated by the finances of stuff I know nothing about. Do you get paid a shed load for each article or are there dozens more that you don't link to here? I think I get the novel writing. I didn't get the finances of travel writing until I asked you here and you provided the details - Thanks. But I don't get the article writing. I understand how a celebrity like Boris gets a lot for say a one weekly article because he is paid for his name and there are other less well known people knocking out columns daily, but can you make a living doing occasional stuff or do you have to combine it with other stuff. Typically what is your weekly output and are you doing this in parallel with writing another novel?
    You’d have to ask the actual author

    Tho given that his articles nearly always enter the top 5 “most read” - like that one - and often reach the top, I presume his editors are happy, hence they keep taking his ideas (often shamelessly stolen from here, let it be said)
    I don't know the author to ask him but I believe you bump into him a lot so have probably exchanged thoughts.

    Is this his bread and butter stuff while doing longer term projects or is this his main job? How does he split work between this and travel writing and other stuff? Is he writing another novel currently or even doing some other long term project? Does his travel writing (or anything else) appear elsewhere eg in promotional stuff?
    Speaking as a humble gazette writer I can only guess. But my guess is he does this as a side-hustle along with larger projects that pay more - virtually all freelance writers have to do this. Vanishingly few can make a nice living from a single column with one paper/magazine

    They are a dying breed. Boris will possibly be the last - no joke

    However there is a prestige attached to writing for a famous mag like the spectator - more indeed than for most newspapers - and that prestige leads to higher profile and other work. So it is worth it for nearly any writer - hence the famous names they can recruit
    If you think about journalists and writers there are distinct elements to it. There is quality/popularity of writing, and there is having something to say.

    The overwhelming majority of writing at all levels is neither good nor has something to say. It is simple space filling. All of this can be replaced by AI, with no gain and no loss.

    But a small number write brilliantly - think (older ones) of Bernard Levin, or Michael Wharton (Peter Simple); (lesser lights exist like Boris Johnson, who is OK but a bit one trick). This has not yet been replicated.

    The other thing that can't be replicated is the excellent marshalling of hard won exclusive new and true facts and very high quality 'informed source' gossip (Shipman for example).

    AI can fill in fine except for the 1%-5% of writing that matters.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,949
    Any explanations for this phenomenon from the PB brains trust.

    "More people in early 20s out of work from ill health than early 40s - study"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-68399392
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,500

    On the Rochdale byelection, it isn't just turnout as a percentage, it is *who* turns out. Galloway's team claim they will have gone to every door 3 times. Which is impressive! But I can only imagine what kind of reaction they would get in the white areas of the town with their "For Gaza, For Rochdale" message.

    I have read some brilliant reportage, with people bemoaning that they live in "a shithole" and what does Gaza have to do with them. I can image a large turnout by various young British Asians, a smaller turnout from their community elders voting for Ali, and perhaps some of the townships voting for Danczuk.

    Anyone can win! Except the Tory who went on holiday to somewhere nicer, or the LibDems who started too late and too far behind.

    Has there been any explanation of why the Lib Dems put so little effort in?

    I know that the 2010 boundary changes shifted the demographic profile of the seat away from them, and that they've been more or less out of the picture since then.

    But they still have a couple of councillors locally and even if they didn't expect to win this time round, the added attention from the by-election might have given them a platform from which to grow in the future.

  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Andy_JS said:

    Any explanations for this phenomenon from the PB brains trust.

    "More people in early 20s out of work from ill health than early 40s - study"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-68399392

    Long Covid seems to be really shit and potentially has a bigger impact on the young because of the way it "ages" the body? So it could just be, for instance, that 20 somethings are starting to get problems more associated with 40 and 50 somethings - which seems more significant in a younger person then those who are "expected" to have those issues. Whereas 40 year olds having issues more similar to people in their 50s is probably not as significant a jump? Although IANAE, so would defer to the medical professionals in the group.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    JRM coming out for Shamima Begum

    There should only be one class of British citizen and that includes Shamima Begum.

    https://x.com/jacob_rees_mogg/status/1762042777917899168?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,469
    Andy_JS said:

    Any explanations for this phenomenon from the PB brains trust.

    "More people in early 20s out of work from ill health than early 40s - study"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-68399392

    The report, https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2024/02/Weve-only-just-begun.pdf , focuses on poor mental health as the answer. It considers various explanations for that: COVID-19 (although the increase predates COVID), negative effects of social media, increased expectations of work + study, austerity and consequent cuts in services, and reduced stigma around mental health.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    The MP who replaced David Amess describes her experience of visiting a local mosque


  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    More outrageous techno-doomerism from the Spec

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ai-just-exploded-again/

    @Leon I'm fascinated by the finances of stuff I know nothing about. Do you get paid a shed load for each article or are there dozens more that you don't link to here? I think I get the novel writing. I didn't get the finances of travel writing until I asked you here and you provided the details - Thanks. But I don't get the article writing. I understand how a celebrity like Boris gets a lot for say a one weekly article because he is paid for his name and there are other less well known people knocking out columns daily, but can you make a living doing occasional stuff or do you have to combine it with other stuff. Typically what is your weekly output and are you doing this in parallel with writing another novel?
    You’d have to ask the actual author

    Tho given that his articles nearly always enter the top 5 “most read” - like that one - and often reach the top, I presume his editors are happy, hence they keep taking his ideas (often shamelessly stolen from here, let it be said)
    I don't know the author to ask him but I believe you bump into him a lot so have probably exchanged thoughts.

    Is this his bread and butter stuff while doing longer term projects or is this his main job? How does he split work between this and travel writing and other stuff? Is he writing another novel currently or even doing some other long term project? Does his travel writing (or anything else) appear elsewhere eg in promotional stuff?
    Last figures for Speccie that NUJ reported (way back in 2020) were 1000 words for £250.

    One has to be a Viv Groskop to earn a full living just freelancing to weekly mags etc.
    Well, it's not like Spectator writers spend much time on research or fact-checking, so that cuts down the time that has to be spent on the work.
    Sad; back in the 50's, when I was in the Vita Form the Head, who used to take us for Current Affairs, arranged for us to have it at a special rate, to 'broaden our minds'.
    After taking the offer for a bit I decided to switch to the New Statesman.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,186
    Andy_JS said:

    Any explanations for this phenomenon from the PB brains trust.

    "More people in early 20s out of work from ill health than early 40s - study"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-68399392

    What has changed most noticeably in the last two decades ?

    Prime candidate has to be social media / smartphones ?

    But there could be a multitude of other reasons.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,865
    Andy_JS said:

    Any explanations for this phenomenon from the PB brains trust.

    "More people in early 20s out of work from ill health than early 40s - study"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-68399392

    Loads of possibilities. My starting point would be: Growing up surrounded 100% by obsessive safety culture and 100% peer group comparison by social media. Plus Covid.

    You get what you plan for. Just as a society that plans for making motherhood/parenthood intractably complicated and difficult will get a low birthrate, a society that plans to make a generation anxious and self absorbed will grow that fruit.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,575
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    More outrageous techno-doomerism from the Spec

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ai-just-exploded-again/

    @Leon I'm fascinated by the finances of stuff I know nothing about. Do you get paid a shed load for each article or are there dozens more that you don't link to here? I think I get the novel writing. I didn't get the finances of travel writing until I asked you here and you provided the details - Thanks. But I don't get the article writing. I understand how a celebrity like Boris gets a lot for say a one weekly article because he is paid for his name and there are other less well known people knocking out columns daily, but can you make a living doing occasional stuff or do you have to combine it with other stuff. Typically what is your weekly output and are you doing this in parallel with writing another novel?
    You’d have to ask the actual author

    Tho given that his articles nearly always enter the top 5 “most read” - like that one - and often reach the top, I presume his editors are happy, hence they keep taking his ideas (often shamelessly stolen from here, let it be said)
    I don't know the author to ask him but I believe you bump into him a lot so have probably exchanged thoughts.

    Is this his bread and butter stuff while doing longer term projects or is this his main job? How does he split work between this and travel writing and other stuff? Is he writing another novel currently or even doing some other long term project? Does his travel writing (or anything else) appear elsewhere eg in promotional stuff?
    Speaking as a humble gazette writer I can only guess. But my guess is he does this as a side-hustle along with larger projects that pay more - virtually all freelance writers have to do this. Vanishingly few can make a nice living from a single column with one paper/magazine

    They are a dying breed. Boris will possibly be the last - no joke

    However there is a prestige attached to writing for a famous mag like the spectator - more indeed than for most newspapers - and that prestige leads to higher profile and other work. So it is worth it for nearly any writer - hence the famous names they can recruit
    Thanks @Leon . Appreciated. Give my regards to the author when you next see him.
    I shall

    I remember reading that when Ian Fleming was the foreign editor of the Sunday times he earned something like the equivalent of £400,000 yearly

    My memory might be hazy - was it Fleming? Was it the ST? - but I recall it was an astonishing sum. Or was it le carre?

    Anyway - big journalists used to make squillions - newspapers were so profitable. So the major hacks could easily hangout with the bankers and the politicians and they were all loaded

    Long gone now
    Interesting stuff, thanks.
    Yes. I'm glad I asked. It is nice to get an insight into areas I am not familiar with.
    Thing is, if you do write for a high profile journal like the spec then eventually you get asked onto tv and radio, which is all ££, and your name gets noticed by other editors, so there are more commissions, and also popular articles get syndicated (surprisingly lucrative at times)

    So it’s positive feedback territory

    Plus you will get offered freebies by PR and corporations who think you are “influential”. So eventually it adds up to a pleasant and well paid lifestyle

    However it must be nice to be Boris and crank out any old fluff and get £400k a year or whatever - just for that
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,771

    Military personnel 'to quit' over housing rules
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68398359

    Conservatives, strong on defence since 2025.

    This actually seems like a good idea, assigning accommodation based on family size rather than rank.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,699
    Roger said:

    Jonathan said:

    FPT - I can't recall who posted it but whatever you think of Matthew Goodwin that exchange between him and Portillo on GB News was excellent.

    A must watch.

    Oh goodness, you've not succumbed to Fox News GBeebies?
    Have you seen the clip?

    Try it. Sometimes even I think Channel4 and The Guardian has a point.
    I thought it was very disappointing. I'm quite a fan of Portillo and though he added very little I at least expected him to conduct a debate that might bring something insightful from Goodwin.

    Goodwins argument was quite simply that the David Amess killing and the Arena bombing were both carried out by islamists so call it as it is; have an immediate halt on immigration and declare war on Islam.

    Where this falls down Is that Amess was killed by a man born and brought up in southwalk who apparently had very little religion in his upbringing and the Arena bombing by someone born and brought up in Rushome

    Anyone know how you apply for a professorship these days?
    Except as a teenager he was referred to Prevent and considered himself an affiliate of Islamic State.

    The Left really do need to develop an answer to this, rather than ignoring it and fingerpointing anyone who raises concerns about it as a closet racist, or you will find yourselves superseded in office by those who propose far more radical solutions - think forced deportations.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,148
    Andy_JS said:

    Any explanations for this phenomenon from the PB brains trust.

    "More people in early 20s out of work from ill health than early 40s - study"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-68399392

    Growing up under 14 years of Tory government?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,099
    @GBNEWS

    BREAKING: Lee Anderson has upped his war of words with Sadiq Khan by accusing the Mayor of London of overseeing "double standards for political benefit" in the way that pro-Palestinian marches are policed in London.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    edited February 26
    isam said:

    The MP who replaced David Amess describes her experience of visiting a local mosque


    Okay - that seems like something to respond to, not hand wave as unacceptable and run away from. I mean if our response to Ukraine was the same as our position on Gaza, and it was Ukrainian or other people from Eastern Europe living in the UK reacting this way I don't think people would question them as much. For all we know this woman could have lost friends or family - that isn't expanded upon. I don't see a problem with confrontational questioning of your MP nor then doing a protest.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    isam said:

    JRM coming out for Shamima Begum

    There should only be one class of British citizen and that includes Shamima Begum.

    https://x.com/jacob_rees_mogg/status/1762042777917899168?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    I mean he's right on this issue - and I can even see the logic as part of his overarching belief system (Britishness means a specific thing, no matter who it covers). He's wrong about basically everything else - and I don't think this is enough to "redeem" him in my eyes.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Scott_xP said:

    @GBNEWS

    BREAKING: Lee Anderson has upped his war of words with Sadiq Khan by accusing the Mayor of London of overseeing "double standards for political benefit" in the way that pro-Palestinian marches are policed in London.

    Why hasn't he jumped to Reform yet? I doubt he's going to get reelected either way - the Tory collapse nationally will likely see it go back to Labour. So why not go full throttle?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,113

    Roger said:

    Jonathan said:

    FPT - I can't recall who posted it but whatever you think of Matthew Goodwin that exchange between him and Portillo on GB News was excellent.

    A must watch.

    Oh goodness, you've not succumbed to Fox News GBeebies?
    Have you seen the clip?

    Try it. Sometimes even I think Channel4 and The Guardian has a point.
    I thought it was very disappointing. I'm quite a fan of Portillo and though he added very little I at least expected him to conduct a debate that might bring something insightful from Goodwin.

    Goodwins argument was quite simply that the David Amess killing and the Arena bombing were both carried out by islamists so call it as it is; have an immediate halt on immigration and declare war on Islam.

    Where this falls down Is that Amess was killed by a man born and brought up in southwalk who apparently had very little religion in his upbringing and the Arena bombing by someone born and brought up in Rushome

    Anyone know how you apply for a professorship these days?
    Except as a teenager he was referred to Prevent and considered himself an affiliate of Islamic State.

    The Left really do need to develop an answer to this, rather than ignoring it and fingerpointing anyone who raises concerns about it as a closet racist, or you will find yourselves superseded in office by those who propose far more radical solutions - think forced deportations.
    The issue is about numbers. If you had MI5 following/watching all the Bedroom Jihadis, then you’d need to increase the size of MI5 watcher organisation by several orders of magnitude.

    A tiny percentage of Bedroom Jihadis spontaneously explode. No one, to date, has come up with an infallible way to determine the ones made of explodium vs the ones full of ordinary shit.

    You see a similar problem with Bedroom Nazis. And Bedroom Anarchists.
  • Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    More outrageous techno-doomerism from the Spec

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ai-just-exploded-again/

    @Leon I'm fascinated by the finances of stuff I know nothing about. Do you get paid a shed load for each article or are there dozens more that you don't link to here? I think I get the novel writing. I didn't get the finances of travel writing until I asked you here and you provided the details - Thanks. But I don't get the article writing. I understand how a celebrity like Boris gets a lot for say a one weekly article because he is paid for his name and there are other less well known people knocking out columns daily, but can you make a living doing occasional stuff or do you have to combine it with other stuff. Typically what is your weekly output and are you doing this in parallel with writing another novel?
    You’d have to ask the actual author

    Tho given that his articles nearly always enter the top 5 “most read” - like that one - and often reach the top, I presume his editors are happy, hence they keep taking his ideas (often shamelessly stolen from here, let it be said)
    I don't know the author to ask him but I believe you bump into him a lot so have probably exchanged thoughts.

    Is this his bread and butter stuff while doing longer term projects or is this his main job? How does he split work between this and travel writing and other stuff? Is he writing another novel currently or even doing some other long term project? Does his travel writing (or anything else) appear elsewhere eg in promotional stuff?
    Speaking as a humble gazette writer I can only guess. But my guess is he does this as a side-hustle along with larger projects that pay more - virtually all freelance writers have to do this. Vanishingly few can make a nice living from a single column with one paper/magazine

    They are a dying breed. Boris will possibly be the last - no joke

    However there is a prestige attached to writing for a famous mag like the spectator - more indeed than for most newspapers - and that prestige leads to higher profile and other work. So it is worth it for nearly any writer - hence the famous names they can recruit
    Thanks @Leon . Appreciated. Give my regards to the author when you next see him.
    I shall

    I remember reading that when Ian Fleming was the foreign editor of the Sunday times he earned something like the equivalent of £400,000 yearly

    My memory might be hazy - was it Fleming? Was it the ST? - but I recall it was an astonishing sum. Or was it le carre?

    Anyway - big journalists used to make squillions - newspapers were so profitable. So the major hacks could easily hangout with the bankers and the politicians and they were all loaded

    Long gone now

    B2B journalists are far lower profile and decidedly second class citizens when it comes to prestige but they earn a hell of a lot more than their more mainstream equivalents. I can tell you that for a fact!

  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    Roger said:

    Jonathan said:

    FPT - I can't recall who posted it but whatever you think of Matthew Goodwin that exchange between him and Portillo on GB News was excellent.

    A must watch.

    Oh goodness, you've not succumbed to Fox News GBeebies?
    Have you seen the clip?

    Try it. Sometimes even I think Channel4 and The Guardian has a point.
    I thought it was very disappointing. I'm quite a fan of Portillo and though he added very little I at least expected him to conduct a debate that might bring something insightful from Goodwin.

    Goodwins argument was quite simply that the David Amess killing and the Arena bombing were both carried out by islamists so call it as it is; have an immediate halt on immigration and declare war on Islam.

    Where this falls down Is that Amess was killed by a man born and brought up in southwalk who apparently had very little religion in his upbringing and the Arena bombing by someone born and brought up in Rushome

    Anyone know how you apply for a professorship these days?
    Except as a teenager he was referred to Prevent and considered himself an affiliate of Islamic State.

    The Left really do need to develop an answer to this, rather than ignoring it and fingerpointing anyone who raises concerns about it as a closet racist, or you will find yourselves superseded in office by those who propose far more radical solutions - think forced deportations.
    Yeah, but Prevent doesn't work in any particularly useful way - lots of people who really shouldn't get referred to Prevent, and there is not good enough support to even engage with those who are referred and make sure that they aren't succumbing to radicalisation. Also the constant calls from Home Secretaries bemoaning that the far-right referrals are too high (despite attacks on MPs coming from that group too, as well as general acts of violence if not literal bombings) makes many people who have to deal with Prevent feel that the government only want to use this to target Muslims.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    isam said:

    JRM coming out for Shamima Begum

    There should only be one class of British citizen and that includes Shamima Begum.

    https://x.com/jacob_rees_mogg/status/1762042777917899168?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Fair enough. It's stating the bleeding obvious really. She's was malevolent teenager, she may now be a malevolent adult. But to pretend she isn't British is completely ridiculous.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,074

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    More outrageous techno-doomerism from the Spec

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ai-just-exploded-again/

    @Leon I'm fascinated by the finances of stuff I know nothing about. Do you get paid a shed load for each article or are there dozens more that you don't link to here? I think I get the novel writing. I didn't get the finances of travel writing until I asked you here and you provided the details - Thanks. But I don't get the article writing. I understand how a celebrity like Boris gets a lot for say a one weekly article because he is paid for his name and there are other less well known people knocking out columns daily, but can you make a living doing occasional stuff or do you have to combine it with other stuff. Typically what is your weekly output and are you doing this in parallel with writing another novel?
    You’d have to ask the actual author

    Tho given that his articles nearly always enter the top 5 “most read” - like that one - and often reach the top, I presume his editors are happy, hence they keep taking his ideas (often shamelessly stolen from here, let it be said)
    I don't know the author to ask him but I believe you bump into him a lot so have probably exchanged thoughts.

    Is this his bread and butter stuff while doing longer term projects or is this his main job? How does he split work between this and travel writing and other stuff? Is he writing another novel currently or even doing some other long term project? Does his travel writing (or anything else) appear elsewhere eg in promotional stuff?
    Speaking as a humble gazette writer I can only guess. But my guess is he does this as a side-hustle along with larger projects that pay more - virtually all freelance writers have to do this. Vanishingly few can make a nice living from a single column with one paper/magazine

    They are a dying breed. Boris will possibly be the last - no joke

    However there is a prestige attached to writing for a famous mag like the spectator - more indeed than for most newspapers - and that prestige leads to higher profile and other work. So it is worth it for nearly any writer - hence the famous names they can recruit
    Thanks @Leon . Appreciated. Give my regards to the author when you next see him.
    I shall

    I remember reading that when Ian Fleming was the foreign editor of the Sunday times he earned something like the equivalent of £400,000 yearly

    My memory might be hazy - was it Fleming? Was it the ST? - but I recall it was an astonishing sum. Or was it le carre?

    Anyway - big journalists used to make squillions - newspapers were so profitable. So the major hacks could easily hangout with the bankers and the politicians and they were all loaded

    Long gone now

    B2B journalists are far lower profile and decidedly second class citizens when it comes to prestige but they earn a hell of a lot more than their more mainstream equivalents. I can tell you that for a fact!

    I remember seeing someone pretty senior at the Speccie (deputy editor?) interviewed on, possibly, Channel 4 about, possibly, cladding - but what struck me was that I would have expected the deputy editor of the Spectator to be living in some comfortable 5+ bedroom detached pile in the leafier parts of the home counties, rather than mortgaged to the hilt in a small new-build flat in a part of East London that she is desperately hoping for the imminent gentrification of.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972

    Roger said:

    Jonathan said:

    FPT - I can't recall who posted it but whatever you think of Matthew Goodwin that exchange between him and Portillo on GB News was excellent.

    A must watch.

    Oh goodness, you've not succumbed to Fox News GBeebies?
    Have you seen the clip?

    Try it. Sometimes even I think Channel4 and The Guardian has a point.
    I thought it was very disappointing. I'm quite a fan of Portillo and though he added very little I at least expected him to conduct a debate that might bring something insightful from Goodwin.

    Goodwins argument was quite simply that the David Amess killing and the Arena bombing were both carried out by islamists so call it as it is; have an immediate halt on immigration and declare war on Islam.

    Where this falls down Is that Amess was killed by a man born and brought up in southwalk who apparently had very little religion in his upbringing and the Arena bombing by someone born and brought up in Rushome

    Anyone know how you apply for a professorship these days?
    Except as a teenager he was referred to Prevent and considered himself an affiliate of Islamic State.

    The Left really do need to develop an answer to this, rather than ignoring it and fingerpointing anyone who raises concerns about it as a closet racist, or you will find yourselves superseded in office by those who propose far more radical solutions - think forced deportations.
    Goodwin came pretty close to that. He suggested a re-education program which was presumably for children who had the misfortune to be born to Muslim parents
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,709
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    More outrageous techno-doomerism from the Spec

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ai-just-exploded-again/

    @Leon I'm fascinated by the finances of stuff I know nothing about. Do you get paid a shed load for each article or are there dozens more that you don't link to here? I think I get the novel writing. I didn't get the finances of travel writing until I asked you here and you provided the details - Thanks. But I don't get the article writing. I understand how a celebrity like Boris gets a lot for say a one weekly article because he is paid for his name and there are other less well known people knocking out columns daily, but can you make a living doing occasional stuff or do you have to combine it with other stuff. Typically what is your weekly output and are you doing this in parallel with writing another novel?
    You’d have to ask the actual author

    Tho given that his articles nearly always enter the top 5 “most read” - like that one - and often reach the top, I presume his editors are happy, hence they keep taking his ideas (often shamelessly stolen from here, let it be said)
    I don't know the author to ask him but I believe you bump into him a lot so have probably exchanged thoughts.

    Is this his bread and butter stuff while doing longer term projects or is this his main job? How does he split work between this and travel writing and other stuff? Is he writing another novel currently or even doing some other long term project? Does his travel writing (or anything else) appear elsewhere eg in promotional stuff?
    Speaking as a humble gazette writer I can only guess. But my guess is he does this as a side-hustle along with larger projects that pay more - virtually all freelance writers have to do this. Vanishingly few can make a nice living from a single column with one paper/magazine

    They are a dying breed. Boris will possibly be the last - no joke

    However there is a prestige attached to writing for a famous mag like the spectator - more indeed than for most newspapers - and that prestige leads to higher profile and other work. So it is worth it for nearly any writer - hence the famous names they can recruit
    Thanks @Leon . Appreciated. Give my regards to the author when you next see him.
    I shall

    I remember reading that when Ian Fleming was the foreign editor of the Sunday times he earned something like the equivalent of £400,000 yearly

    My memory might be hazy - was it Fleming? Was it the ST? - but I recall it was an astonishing sum. Or was it le carre?

    Anyway - big journalists used to make squillions - newspapers were so profitable. So the major hacks could easily hangout with the bankers and the politicians and they were all loaded

    Long gone now
    Interesting stuff, thanks.
    Yes. I'm glad I asked. It is nice to get an insight into areas I am not familiar with.
    Thing is, if you do write for a high profile journal like the spec then eventually you get asked onto tv and radio, which is all ££, and your name gets noticed by other editors, so there are more commissions, and also popular articles get syndicated (surprisingly lucrative at times)

    So it’s positive feedback territory

    Plus you will get offered freebies by PR and corporations who think you are “influential”. So eventually it adds up to a pleasant and well paid lifestyle

    However it must be nice to be Boris and crank out any old fluff and get £400k a year or whatever - just for that
    How did Boris get to be the high-paid mega-columnist? His writing could be occasionally amusing, as I recall, but he's notoriously unreliable and has a history of journalistic fraud. What was the big appeal?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    TOPPING said:

    Can we institute a petition to stop @Scott_xP doing his "Richi" thing which is fucking irritating and provokes the same response in thinking people as it does towards those using "Bliar", "Liebour" et al.

    I rather miss David Chameleon, a classic of the genre.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,113
    148grss said:

    Roger said:

    Jonathan said:

    FPT - I can't recall who posted it but whatever you think of Matthew Goodwin that exchange between him and Portillo on GB News was excellent.

    A must watch.

    Oh goodness, you've not succumbed to Fox News GBeebies?
    Have you seen the clip?

    Try it. Sometimes even I think Channel4 and The Guardian has a point.
    I thought it was very disappointing. I'm quite a fan of Portillo and though he added very little I at least expected him to conduct a debate that might bring something insightful from Goodwin.

    Goodwins argument was quite simply that the David Amess killing and the Arena bombing were both carried out by islamists so call it as it is; have an immediate halt on immigration and declare war on Islam.

    Where this falls down Is that Amess was killed by a man born and brought up in southwalk who apparently had very little religion in his upbringing and the Arena bombing by someone born and brought up in Rushome

    Anyone know how you apply for a professorship these days?
    Except as a teenager he was referred to Prevent and considered himself an affiliate of Islamic State.

    The Left really do need to develop an answer to this, rather than ignoring it and fingerpointing anyone who raises concerns about it as a closet racist, or you will find yourselves superseded in office by those who propose far more radical solutions - think forced deportations.
    Yeah, but Prevent doesn't work in any particularly useful way - lots of people who really shouldn't get referred to Prevent, and there is not good enough support to even engage with those who are referred and make sure that they aren't succumbing to radicalisation. Also the constant calls from Home Secretaries bemoaning that the far-right referrals are too high (despite attacks on MPs coming from that group too, as well as general acts of violence if not literal bombings) makes many people who have to deal with Prevent feel that the government only want to use this to target Muslims.
    Which is a pile of shit.

    Tons of extreme right referrals and interventions from Prevent.

    And extreme left wing. See the latest court case

    And religious nutters of a range of types.

    When dealing with people nothing is ever 100%. But Prevent is several million times better than arrest without trial or any of the other, less charming options.

    The main complainers seem to be extremists themselves - maybe they are worried about their recruitment targets?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,898
    isam said:

    JRM coming out for Shamima Begum

    There should only be one class of British citizen and that includes Shamima Begum.

    https://x.com/jacob_rees_mogg/status/1762042777917899168?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    That's good to hear, good on him.
    One of my formative PB experiences was when I was an early proponent of this view on here and the visceral response from a large number of PB's right of centre community - who basically accused me of treason - was quite a shock.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,469

    Roger said:

    Jonathan said:

    FPT - I can't recall who posted it but whatever you think of Matthew Goodwin that exchange between him and Portillo on GB News was excellent.

    A must watch.

    Oh goodness, you've not succumbed to Fox News GBeebies?
    Have you seen the clip?

    Try it. Sometimes even I think Channel4 and The Guardian has a point.
    I thought it was very disappointing. I'm quite a fan of Portillo and though he added very little I at least expected him to conduct a debate that might bring something insightful from Goodwin.

    Goodwins argument was quite simply that the David Amess killing and the Arena bombing were both carried out by islamists so call it as it is; have an immediate halt on immigration and declare war on Islam.

    Where this falls down Is that Amess was killed by a man born and brought up in southwalk who apparently had very little religion in his upbringing and the Arena bombing by someone born and brought up in Rushome

    Anyone know how you apply for a professorship these days?
    Except as a teenager he was referred to Prevent and considered himself an affiliate of Islamic State.

    The Left really do need to develop an answer to this, rather than ignoring it and fingerpointing anyone who raises concerns about it as a closet racist, or you will find yourselves superseded in office by those who propose far more radical solutions - think forced deportations.
    What is the solution? A good scheme to counter radicalisation (Prevent could be improved); good policing of radical groups (police funding has been cut); good mental health services (NHS is underfunded); good security for MPs; building a welcoming society that doesn't view all Muslims as dangerous (removing the whip from Islamophobic politicians is a good start).

    Taylor & Soni (2017), in a review of Prevent in schools, suggest: "Radicalisation refers to views and not acts. Radicalised views are not acts of terrorism and are not in themselves a threat. The focus on identifying and intervening adopted by the CTSA and Prevent leads to problematic culture of surveillance which inhibits the creation of safe spaces in which to debate radical views. In fact, the lived experiences of Prevent in schools by the participants of these studies suggest it deters important critical discussion through fear and further alienates and villainises groups who may already feel alienated and villainised, threatening their sense of belonging and exacerbating the likelihood of creating intergroup conflict in our society. Instead, a focus on identifying areas of ‘overlapping consensus’ (Panjwani, Citation2016, p. 330) between the variety of viewpoints held by pupils in the UK and modern, liberal values could help reduce perceived tensions and create a greater sense of unity within our educational settings. Furthermore, programmes such as Tapestry can genuinely engage pupils with the issue of radicalisation and should be considered a priority for future government funding."

    Jerome & Elwick (2017) write: "School responses to the Prevent agenda have tended to focus primarily on ‘safeguarding’ approaches, which essentially perceive some young people as being ‘at risk’ and potentially as presenting a risk to others. In this article, we consider evidence from secondary school students who experienced a curriculum project on terrorism, extremism and radicalisation. We argue that a curriculum response which addresses the acquisition of knowledge can build students’ critical capacity for engagement with radicalisation through enhanced political literacy and media literacy. We further argue this represents a genuinely educational response to Prevent, as opposed to a more restrictive securitised approach."

    That all said, some of the people who raise concerns, over and over again while ignoring other threats of political violence or ills in society, who make up lies about immigration and crime, are racists (and often without a closet). Fingerpointing at racists is appropriate and part of how we combat radicalisation.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,113

    isam said:

    JRM coming out for Shamima Begum

    There should only be one class of British citizen and that includes Shamima Begum.

    https://x.com/jacob_rees_mogg/status/1762042777917899168?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Fair enough. It's stating the bleeding obvious really. She's was malevolent teenager, she may now be a malevolent adult. But to pretend she isn't British is completely ridiculous.
    Nothing quite so British as a conviction under the 1351 Act.

    #OldeSkooleJustice
  • 148grss said:

    isam said:

    The MP who replaced David Amess describes her experience of visiting a local mosque


    Okay - that seems like something to respond to, not hand wave as unacceptable and run away from. I mean if our response to Ukraine was the same as our position on Gaza, and it was Ukrainian or other people from Eastern Europe living in the UK reacting this way I don't think people would question them as much. For all we know this woman could have lost friends or family - that isn't expanded upon. I don't see a problem with confrontational questioning of your MP nor then doing a protest.
    Says a coward hiding behind internet anonymity.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Just found a really good YouTube channel for documentaries, with subjects like MH370, DB Cooper, etc. The videos seem like an amateur production but done in almost a professional way, if that makes any sense.

    https://www.youtube.com/@LEMMiNO/videos

    Never heard of DB Cooper but Wiki led me down a path of 13 (13!) copycat parachute hijackings in 8 months in 1971-72, none successful. I am dimly aware of this being regular news at the time. Strange times.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    I note with some dismay that the thread has been Goodwinned AGAIN.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,148

    TOPPING said:

    Can we institute a petition to stop @Scott_xP doing his "Richi" thing which is fucking irritating and provokes the same response in thinking people as it does towards those using "Bliar", "Liebour" et al.

    I rather miss David Chameleon, a classic of the genre.
    Useless is a classic of the genre, and still hilarious every time the usual suspects use it.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    isam said:

    JRM coming out for Shamima Begum

    There should only be one class of British citizen and that includes Shamima Begum.

    https://x.com/jacob_rees_mogg/status/1762042777917899168?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Fair enough. It's stating the bleeding obvious really. She's was malevolent teenager, she may now be a malevolent adult. But to pretend she isn't British is completely ridiculous.
    Nothing quite so British as a conviction under the 1351 Act.

    #OldeSkooleJustice
    She can reasonably be tried on a number of charges, treason very possibly being one of them.

    But she should be tried here, because she is British.

    Britishness does not negatively correlate with malevolence, otherwise we wouldn't have a multitude of evil British villains residing in our prisons.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    148grss said:

    isam said:

    JRM coming out for Shamima Begum

    There should only be one class of British citizen and that includes Shamima Begum.

    https://x.com/jacob_rees_mogg/status/1762042777917899168?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    I mean he's right on this issue - and I can even see the logic as part of his overarching belief system (Britishness means a specific thing, no matter who it covers). He's wrong about basically everything else - and I don't think this is enough to "redeem" him in my eyes.
    Nah, he's wrong on this one too.

    Where people have dual nationality and do something particularly unpleasant and illegal, particularly if it involves some form of allegiance to a foreign state or equivalent, I don't see the big deal in revoking their British citizenship.

    The issues in the Begum case is that she wasn't a dual national - she merely had the right to apply for Bangladeshi citizenship (which it understandably said it'd deny her), and the foreign entity she showed allegiance to was an internationally unrecognised and now defunct statelet. Plus, she was a child at the time, which has to be a factor in whether the state can or should impose lifetime changes on someone.

    Much as I don't have much sympathy for her, if Syria chose to deport her to Britain, I think we ought to be bound to take her back.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,186
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    More outrageous techno-doomerism from the Spec

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ai-just-exploded-again/

    @Leon I'm fascinated by the finances of stuff I know nothing about. Do you get paid a shed load for each article or are there dozens more that you don't link to here? I think I get the novel writing. I didn't get the finances of travel writing until I asked you here and you provided the details - Thanks. But I don't get the article writing. I understand how a celebrity like Boris gets a lot for say a one weekly article because he is paid for his name and there are other less well known people knocking out columns daily, but can you make a living doing occasional stuff or do you have to combine it with other stuff. Typically what is your weekly output and are you doing this in parallel with writing another novel?
    You’d have to ask the actual author

    Tho given that his articles nearly always enter the top 5 “most read” - like that one - and often reach the top, I presume his editors are happy, hence they keep taking his ideas (often shamelessly stolen from here, let it be said)
    I don't know the author to ask him but I believe you bump into him a lot so have probably exchanged thoughts.

    Is this his bread and butter stuff while doing longer term projects or is this his main job? How does he split work between this and travel writing and other stuff? Is he writing another novel currently or even doing some other long term project? Does his travel writing (or anything else) appear elsewhere eg in promotional stuff?
    Speaking as a humble gazette writer I can only guess. But my guess is he does this as a side-hustle along with larger projects that pay more - virtually all freelance writers have to do this. Vanishingly few can make a nice living from a single column with one paper/magazine

    They are a dying breed. Boris will possibly be the last - no joke

    However there is a prestige attached to writing for a famous mag like the spectator - more indeed than for most newspapers - and that prestige leads to higher profile and other work. So it is worth it for nearly any writer - hence the famous names they can recruit
    Thanks @Leon . Appreciated. Give my regards to the author when you next see him.
    I shall

    I remember reading that when Ian Fleming was the foreign editor of the Sunday times he earned something like the equivalent of £400,000 yearly

    My memory might be hazy - was it Fleming? Was it the ST? - but I recall it was an astonishing sum. Or was it le carre?

    Anyway - big journalists used to make squillions - newspapers were so profitable. So the major hacks could easily hangout with the bankers and the politicians and they were all loaded

    Long gone now
    Interesting stuff, thanks.
    Yes. I'm glad I asked. It is nice to get an insight into areas I am not familiar with.
    Thing is, if you do write for a high profile journal like the spec then eventually you get asked onto tv and radio, which is all ££, and your name gets noticed by other editors, so there are more commissions, and also popular articles get syndicated (surprisingly lucrative at times)

    So it’s positive feedback territory

    Plus you will get offered freebies by PR and corporations who think you are “influential”. So eventually it adds up to a pleasant and well paid lifestyle

    However it must be nice to be Boris and crank out any old fluff and get £400k a year or whatever - just for that
    Look at him, though.
    Are you really envious ?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    TOPPING said:

    Can we institute a petition to stop @Scott_xP doing his "Richi" thing which is fucking irritating and provokes the same response in thinking people as it does towards those using "Bliar", "Liebour" et al.

    I rather miss David Chameleon, a classic of the genre.
    Useless is a classic of the genre, and still hilarious every time the usual suspects use it.
    I must have missed that one: care to share?

    P.S. Liz Trump is a new one, that I think has some potential.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,890
    isam said:

    JRM coming out for Shamima Begum

    There should only be one class of British citizen and that includes Shamima Begum.

    https://x.com/jacob_rees_mogg/status/1762042777917899168?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Well that has spoiled my day. I agree with Mogg.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,148
    edited February 26
    Is Truss the apotheosis of the weird mental dislocation of those who are both Ukraine and Trump cheerleaders? If POTUS Trump II comes to pass, the train wreck of those absolutely contradictory positions colliding headlong may be one of the few entertainments available.





  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,469


    Sinn Fein declining in the polls in the Republic of Ireland, although neither FF or FG are benefitting. Instead, "others/independents" are rising.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,148

    TOPPING said:

    Can we institute a petition to stop @Scott_xP doing his "Richi" thing which is fucking irritating and provokes the same response in thinking people as it does towards those using "Bliar", "Liebour" et al.

    I rather miss David Chameleon, a classic of the genre.
    Useless is a classic of the genre, and still hilarious every time the usual suspects use it.
    I must have missed that one: care to share?

    P.S. Liz Trump is a new one, that I think has some potential.
    Yousaf = Useless
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,186
    edited February 26

    isam said:

    JRM coming out for Shamima Begum

    There should only be one class of British citizen and that includes Shamima Begum.

    https://x.com/jacob_rees_mogg/status/1762042777917899168?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Well that has spoiled my day. I agree with Mogg.
    Thats the thing about ideas, their validity is not dependent on those who espouse them.
    Though I'll admit to mild surprise.

    (eg also M Francois in the Commons the other day.)
  • 148grss said:

    isam said:

    JRM coming out for Shamima Begum

    There should only be one class of British citizen and that includes Shamima Begum.

    https://x.com/jacob_rees_mogg/status/1762042777917899168?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    I mean he's right on this issue - and I can even see the logic as part of his overarching belief system (Britishness means a specific thing, no matter who it covers). He's wrong about basically everything else - and I don't think this is enough to "redeem" him in my eyes.
    Nah, he's wrong on this one too.

    Where people have dual nationality and do something particularly unpleasant and illegal, particularly if it involves some form of allegiance to a foreign state or equivalent, I don't see the big deal in revoking their British citizenship.

    The issues in the Begum case is that she wasn't a dual national - she merely had the right to apply for Bangladeshi citizenship (which it understandably said it'd deny her), and the foreign entity she showed allegiance to was an internationally unrecognised and now defunct statelet. Plus, she was a child at the time, which has to be a factor in whether the state can or should impose lifetime changes on someone.

    Much as I don't have much sympathy for her, if Syria chose to deport her to Britain, I think we ought to be bound to take her back.
    No move has been made, AFAIK, to remove British citizenship from convicted sex trafficker Ghislaine Maxwell, who also has USA and French citizenship. Too well-connected, I presume?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,113

    Roger said:

    Jonathan said:

    FPT - I can't recall who posted it but whatever you think of Matthew Goodwin that exchange between him and Portillo on GB News was excellent.

    A must watch.

    Oh goodness, you've not succumbed to Fox News GBeebies?
    Have you seen the clip?

    Try it. Sometimes even I think Channel4 and The Guardian has a point.
    I thought it was very disappointing. I'm quite a fan of Portillo and though he added very little I at least expected him to conduct a debate that might bring something insightful from Goodwin.

    Goodwins argument was quite simply that the David Amess killing and the Arena bombing were both carried out by islamists so call it as it is; have an immediate halt on immigration and declare war on Islam.

    Where this falls down Is that Amess was killed by a man born and brought up in southwalk who apparently had very little religion in his upbringing and the Arena bombing by someone born and brought up in Rushome

    Anyone know how you apply for a professorship these days?
    Except as a teenager he was referred to Prevent and considered himself an affiliate of Islamic State.

    The Left really do need to develop an answer to this, rather than ignoring it and fingerpointing anyone who raises concerns about it as a closet racist, or you will find yourselves superseded in office by those who propose far more radical solutions - think forced deportations.
    What is the solution? A good scheme to counter radicalisation (Prevent could be improved); good policing of radical groups (police funding has been cut); good mental health services (NHS is underfunded); good security for MPs; building a welcoming society that doesn't view all Muslims as dangerous (removing the whip from Islamophobic politicians is a good start).

    Taylor & Soni (2017), in a review of Prevent in schools, suggest: "Radicalisation refers to views and not acts. Radicalised views are not acts of terrorism and are not in themselves a threat. The focus on identifying and intervening adopted by the CTSA and Prevent leads to problematic culture of surveillance which inhibits the creation of safe spaces in which to debate radical views. In fact, the lived experiences of Prevent in schools by the participants of these studies suggest it deters important critical discussion through fear and further alienates and villainises groups who may already feel alienated and villainised, threatening their sense of belonging and exacerbating the likelihood of creating intergroup conflict in our society. Instead, a focus on identifying areas of ‘overlapping consensus’ (Panjwani, Citation2016, p. 330) between the variety of viewpoints held by pupils in the UK and modern, liberal values could help reduce perceived tensions and create a greater sense of unity within our educational settings. Furthermore, programmes such as Tapestry can genuinely engage pupils with the issue of radicalisation and should be considered a priority for future government funding."

    Jerome & Elwick (2017) write: "School responses to the Prevent agenda have tended to focus primarily on ‘safeguarding’ approaches, which essentially perceive some young people as being ‘at risk’ and potentially as presenting a risk to others. In this article, we consider evidence from secondary school students who experienced a curriculum project on terrorism, extremism and radicalisation. We argue that a curriculum response which addresses the acquisition of knowledge can build students’ critical capacity for engagement with radicalisation through enhanced political literacy and media literacy. We further argue this represents a genuinely educational response to Prevent, as opposed to a more restrictive securitised approach."

    That all said, some of the people who raise concerns, over and over again while ignoring other threats of political violence or ills in society, who make up lies about immigration and crime, are racists (and often without a closet). Fingerpointing at racists is appropriate and part of how we combat radicalisation.
    While the sentiments above are nice - “let’s be welcoming to everyone” - what do you do with people advocating racial/religious supremacism, violent homophobia etc.

    For example some of the people I went to university with were quite clear that gay people “from their community” were, in their minds, needing punishment. There were a number of assaults on gay students from ethnic minorities - nearly certainly from this world view.

    Should we engage them in a balanced, socially conscious debate? Or do as one student union security guard did and throw a large industrial dustbin at them? (He disturbed a group assault on an individual)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,339

    isam said:

    JRM coming out for Shamima Begum

    There should only be one class of British citizen and that includes Shamima Begum.

    https://x.com/jacob_rees_mogg/status/1762042777917899168?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Well that has spoiled my day. I agree with Mogg.
    Hmm, I can't help thinking of when I saw the Empire Windrush passenger manifest online (the actual document). And it said 'British'.

    https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/education/resources/commonwealth-migration-since-1945/passenger-list-from-windrush/
  • I see European Farmers are demonstrating at the EU building protesting about cheap imports and green regulations

    Water cannons deployed
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,282
    Julie Burchill: The enduring ghastliness of Alastair Campbell

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-enduring-ghastliness-of-alastair-campbell/
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    TOPPING said:

    Can we institute a petition to stop @Scott_xP doing his "Richi" thing which is fucking irritating and provokes the same response in thinking people as it does towards those using "Bliar", "Liebour" et al.

    I rather miss David Chameleon, a classic of the genre.
    Useless is a classic of the genre, and still hilarious every time the usual suspects use it.
    I must have missed that one: care to share?

    P.S. Liz Trump is a new one, that I think has some potential.
    Yousaf = Useless
    Ah, yes it is coming back to me now.

    I think @Big_G_NorthWales is a proponent of Mark Greatford, aka The Drake, aka The King.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 26
    This Timmy voe doesn’t forget. Another ‘U-turn’/outright lie from Sir Keir

    https://x.com/timmyvoe240886/status/1761927315422884188?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,186
    This ought not to be "WOW" - every journalist with a shred of self respect ought to challenge the blatant lies similarly.
    https://twitter.com/mmpadellan/status/1761722713855373697
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,909
    edited February 26
    eek said:

    Regarding the possibility of a May election.
    At the weekend I received a leaflet from my local Conservative councillor, the first since he was elected in 2022.
    The weekend prior, I received a leaflet from a "list" Conservative MSP, the first since he was elected in 2021.

    No chance of May.

    No chance of Reform out-polling the Tories.

    The Budget is going to be a tax-cutting proppa Tory budget the likes of which we haven't seen this Parliament. Reform has nothing to offer. Nothing.

    Second half of 2024 will see Labour and the Tories both polling in the 30's.
    How, all reports show that Hunt has about £8-12bn max to play with and a lot of that will be spent ensuring petrol and diesel duty isn’t increased
    Aren't there rumours of another squeeze on local authority spending?

    Some unrealistic promises of future public spending cuts might be enough to satisfy the OBR that the numbers add up, so that they can get the OBR blessing for tax cuts.

    It's what I keep on saying Truss could have done if she had wanted to implement her tax cuts without provoking panic in the financial markets.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    What I consider a pretty good cover of the modern history of Palestine and the nature of Zionism:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xottY-7m3k

    This video maker talks quite slowly for me, so I tend to listen to him in 1.5 or 2 times speed - may be useful for others if you watch / listen.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,909
    mwadams said:

    I think a 1992 style result is actually less of a chance than a complete Tory collapse - it feels to me there is still significant risk that they could leach further votes to Reform.

    Indeed there is still a chance there could be a Tory-Reform crossover, in my view.

    Yep, that's my view.

    Such major political upheavals are extremely rare with our FPTP system, only occurring about once every 100 years or so. The last time was... oh, about 100 years ago.
    I think the Tories feel that they can't lose that badly. But their latest idea that actually the polls are completely wrong does not suggest to me that they think they need to do anything to make a come back.
    It feels more like John Major's assertions that the polls were wrong in the run-up to 1997.

    Immediately after the election he said something along the lines of "Well, we knew they weren't wrong, but there was nothing else we could do, was there?"
    As a keen cricket fan, John Major knows that a team is often so far behind that they have to believe in miracles to keep playing to the end. And, sometimes, a miracle happens.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,186

    Julie Burchill: The enduring ghastliness of Alastair Campbell

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-enduring-ghastliness-of-alastair-campbell/

    TBF, they might equally have commissioned Alastair Campbell: The enduring ghastliness of Julie Burchill.

    Both were, of course, vocal supporters of the Iraq debacle. Though Campbell was better informed, and so had less excuse.
  • Lee Anderson is definitely on his way to UFUK - his escalation of his rhetoric against Khan is to keep the story going before he announces. Perhaps on his show this Friday?
  • TOPPING said:

    Can we institute a petition to stop @Scott_xP doing his "Richi" thing which is fucking irritating and provokes the same response in thinking people as it does towards those using "Bliar", "Liebour" et al.

    I rather miss David Chameleon, a classic of the genre.
    Useless is a classic of the genre, and still hilarious every time the usual suspects use it.
    I must have missed that one: care to share?

    P.S. Liz Trump is a new one, that I think has some potential.
    Yousaf = Useless
    Ah, yes it is coming back to me now.

    I think @Big_G_NorthWales is a proponent of Mark Greatford, aka The Drake, aka The King.
    Drakeford has plummeted in the polls and the Welsh Farmers demonstrating about the idiotic green rules in Llandudno this weekend were addressed by Sunak and he was well received

    Indeed the Welsh minister responsible for the dispute has said she will review their policy
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    More outrageous techno-doomerism from the Spec

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ai-just-exploded-again/

    @Leon I'm fascinated by the finances of stuff I know nothing about. Do you get paid a shed load for each article or are there dozens more that you don't link to here? I think I get the novel writing. I didn't get the finances of travel writing until I asked you here and you provided the details - Thanks. But I don't get the article writing. I understand how a celebrity like Boris gets a lot for say a one weekly article because he is paid for his name and there are other less well known people knocking out columns daily, but can you make a living doing occasional stuff or do you have to combine it with other stuff. Typically what is your weekly output and are you doing this in parallel with writing another novel?
    You’d have to ask the actual author

    Tho given that his articles nearly always enter the top 5 “most read” - like that one - and often reach the top, I presume his editors are happy, hence they keep taking his ideas (often shamelessly stolen from here, let it be said)
    I don't know the author to ask him but I believe you bump into him a lot so have probably exchanged thoughts.

    Is this his bread and butter stuff while doing longer term projects or is this his main job? How does he split work between this and travel writing and other stuff? Is he writing another novel currently or even doing some other long term project? Does his travel writing (or anything else) appear elsewhere eg in promotional stuff?
    Speaking as a humble gazette writer I can only guess. But my guess is he does this as a side-hustle along with larger projects that pay more - virtually all freelance writers have to do this. Vanishingly few can make a nice living from a single column with one paper/magazine

    They are a dying breed. Boris will possibly be the last - no joke

    However there is a prestige attached to writing for a famous mag like the spectator - more indeed than for most newspapers - and that prestige leads to higher profile and other work. So it is worth it for nearly any writer - hence the famous names they can recruit
    Thanks @Leon . Appreciated. Give my regards to the author when you next see him.
    I shall

    I remember reading that when Ian Fleming was the foreign editor of the Sunday times he earned something like the equivalent of £400,000 yearly

    My memory might be hazy - was it Fleming? Was it the ST? - but I recall it was an astonishing sum. Or was it le carre?

    Anyway - big journalists used to make squillions - newspapers were so profitable. So the major hacks could easily hangout with the bankers and the politicians and they were all loaded

    Long gone now
    Interesting stuff, thanks.
    Yes. I'm glad I asked. It is nice to get an insight into areas I am not familiar with.
    Thing is, if you do write for a high profile journal like the spec then eventually you get asked onto tv and radio, which is all ££, and your name gets noticed by other editors, so there are more commissions, and also popular articles get syndicated (surprisingly lucrative at times)

    So it’s positive feedback territory

    Plus you will get offered freebies by PR and corporations who think you are “influential”. So eventually it adds up to a pleasant and well paid lifestyle

    However it must be nice to be Boris and crank out any old fluff and get £400k a year or whatever - just for that
    How did Boris get to be the high-paid mega-columnist? His writing could be occasionally amusing, as I recall, but he's notoriously unreliable and has a history of journalistic fraud. What was the big appeal?
    Contacts. He went to Eton, remember!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704

    Julie Burchill: The enduring ghastliness of Alastair Campbell

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-enduring-ghastliness-of-alastair-campbell/

    Is that the journalistic equivalent of a draw?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,339
    edited February 26

    TOPPING said:

    Can we institute a petition to stop @Scott_xP doing his "Richi" thing which is fucking irritating and provokes the same response in thinking people as it does towards those using "Bliar", "Liebour" et al.

    I rather miss David Chameleon, a classic of the genre.
    Useless is a classic of the genre, and still hilarious every time the usual suspects use it.
    I must have missed that one: care to share?

    P.S. Liz Trump is a new one, that I think has some potential.
    Yousaf = Useless
    Ah, yes it is coming back to me now.

    I think @Big_G_NorthWales is a proponent of Mark Greatford, aka The Drake, aka The King.
    Drakeford has plummeted in the polls and the Welsh Farmers demonstrating about the idiotic green rules in Llandudno this weekend were addressed by Sunak and he was well received

    Indeed the Welsh minister responsible for the dispute has said she will review their policy
    Hmm, rather different perspective here.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/25/sunak-stands-with-net-zero-and-climate-conspiracy-group-at-farming-protest

    'He appeared alongside farmer Gareth Wyn Jones and stood next to placards emblazoned with the logo for the campaign “No Farmers No Food”.

    [...]

    The No Farmers No Food campaign is anti net-zero and has shared conspiracy theories about climate change action, while Melville has questioned the effects of climate breakdown as well as sharing conspiracy theories about net zero.

    Its manifesto accuses the UK government of having an “obsession with net zero” and calls for it to end climate measures.

    The Twitter/X account for the group shared a conspiracy theory that the World Economic Forum (WEF) is going to force people to eat bugs to reach net zero, [...]'

    Of course, being on the same podium doesn't incriminate someone. Unless it is the argument of a Tory propagandist attacking Labour politicians ...? [edited]
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,682
    148grss said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Any explanations for this phenomenon from the PB brains trust.

    "More people in early 20s out of work from ill health than early 40s - study"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-68399392

    Long Covid seems to be really shit and potentially has a bigger impact on the young because of the way it "ages" the body? So it could just be, for instance, that 20 somethings are starting to get problems more associated with 40 and 50 somethings - which seems more significant in a younger person then those who are "expected" to have those issues. Whereas 40 year olds having issues more similar to people in their 50s is probably not as significant a jump? Although IANAE, so would defer to the medical professionals in the group.
    We discussed this. You posted data that wasn't actually from the paper and with a nonsense idea like 'ageing' the body via covid.

    I think it more likely we are seeing lots more mental health issues (partly related to covid, partly because the young are convinced that there has never been a worse time to be a youngster*)

    * They have some cause for complaint re housing costs etc, but most other things are far better now than they ever have been. Heinkel 111's are not cruising over London dropping bombs, we are not facing a novel disease with a kill rate of around 50%, there is an NHS (albeit stretched).
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    TOPPING said:

    Can we institute a petition to stop @Scott_xP doing his "Richi" thing which is fucking irritating and provokes the same response in thinking people as it does towards those using "Bliar", "Liebour" et al.

    I rather miss David Chameleon, a classic of the genre.
    Useless is a classic of the genre, and still hilarious every time the usual suspects use it.
    I must have missed that one: care to share?

    P.S. Liz Trump is a new one, that I think has some potential.
    Yousaf = Useless
    Ah, yes it is coming back to me now.

    I think @Big_G_NorthWales is a proponent of Mark Greatford, aka The Drake, aka The King.
    Drakeford has plummeted in the polls and the Welsh Farmers demonstrating about the idiotic green rules in Llandudno this weekend were addressed by Sunak and he was well received

    Indeed the Welsh minister responsible for the dispute has said she will review their policy
    The Drake is the messiah.

    Arguably the greatest man ever to born to Wales; a visionary beyond compare.

    All speak his name in hushed tones: some call him 'sir'; others 'king'; but those that know him just call him 'friend'.

    In the words of @Casino_Royale: "show some respect".

  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,074

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    More outrageous techno-doomerism from the Spec

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ai-just-exploded-again/

    @Leon I'm fascinated by the finances of stuff I know nothing about. Do you get paid a shed load for each article or are there dozens more that you don't link to here? I think I get the novel writing. I didn't get the finances of travel writing until I asked you here and you provided the details - Thanks. But I don't get the article writing. I understand how a celebrity like Boris gets a lot for say a one weekly article because he is paid for his name and there are other less well known people knocking out columns daily, but can you make a living doing occasional stuff or do you have to combine it with other stuff. Typically what is your weekly output and are you doing this in parallel with writing another novel?
    You’d have to ask the actual author

    Tho given that his articles nearly always enter the top 5 “most read” - like that one - and often reach the top, I presume his editors are happy, hence they keep taking his ideas (often shamelessly stolen from here, let it be said)
    I don't know the author to ask him but I believe you bump into him a lot so have probably exchanged thoughts.

    Is this his bread and butter stuff while doing longer term projects or is this his main job? How does he split work between this and travel writing and other stuff? Is he writing another novel currently or even doing some other long term project? Does his travel writing (or anything else) appear elsewhere eg in promotional stuff?
    Speaking as a humble gazette writer I can only guess. But my guess is he does this as a side-hustle along with larger projects that pay more - virtually all freelance writers have to do this. Vanishingly few can make a nice living from a single column with one paper/magazine

    They are a dying breed. Boris will possibly be the last - no joke

    However there is a prestige attached to writing for a famous mag like the spectator - more indeed than for most newspapers - and that prestige leads to higher profile and other work. So it is worth it for nearly any writer - hence the famous names they can recruit
    Thanks @Leon . Appreciated. Give my regards to the author when you next see him.
    I shall

    I remember reading that when Ian Fleming was the foreign editor of the Sunday times he earned something like the equivalent of £400,000 yearly

    My memory might be hazy - was it Fleming? Was it the ST? - but I recall it was an astonishing sum. Or was it le carre?

    Anyway - big journalists used to make squillions - newspapers were so profitable. So the major hacks could easily hangout with the bankers and the politicians and they were all loaded

    Long gone now
    Interesting stuff, thanks.
    Yes. I'm glad I asked. It is nice to get an insight into areas I am not familiar with.
    Thing is, if you do write for a high profile journal like the spec then eventually you get asked onto tv and radio, which is all ££, and your name gets noticed by other editors, so there are more commissions, and also popular articles get syndicated (surprisingly lucrative at times)

    So it’s positive feedback territory

    Plus you will get offered freebies by PR and corporations who think you are “influential”. So eventually it adds up to a pleasant and well paid lifestyle

    However it must be nice to be Boris and crank out any old fluff and get £400k a year or whatever - just for that
    How did Boris get to be the high-paid mega-columnist? His writing could be occasionally amusing, as I recall, but he's notoriously unreliable and has a history of journalistic fraud. What was the big appeal?
    Contacts. He went to Eton, remember!
    Because he is genuinely funny.
    I know some people loathe him so much that they cannot credit him with any positive qualities whatsoever, but there are very few writers (or indeed speakers) who are genuinely funny, and he is one.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,682
    148grss said:

    isam said:

    The MP who replaced David Amess describes her experience of visiting a local mosque


    Okay - that seems like something to respond to, not hand wave as unacceptable and run away from. I mean if our response to Ukraine was the same as our position on Gaza, and it was Ukrainian or other people from Eastern Europe living in the UK reacting this way I don't think people would question them as much. For all we know this woman could have lost friends or family - that isn't expanded upon. I don't see a problem with confrontational questioning of your MP nor then doing a protest.
    Although of course for your analogy Ukraine needed to have launched an unprovoked attack on Russia killing thousands first.
  • Carnyx said:

    TOPPING said:

    Can we institute a petition to stop @Scott_xP doing his "Richi" thing which is fucking irritating and provokes the same response in thinking people as it does towards those using "Bliar", "Liebour" et al.

    I rather miss David Chameleon, a classic of the genre.
    Useless is a classic of the genre, and still hilarious every time the usual suspects use it.
    I must have missed that one: care to share?

    P.S. Liz Trump is a new one, that I think has some potential.
    Yousaf = Useless
    Ah, yes it is coming back to me now.

    I think @Big_G_NorthWales is a proponent of Mark Greatford, aka The Drake, aka The King.
    Drakeford has plummeted in the polls and the Welsh Farmers demonstrating about the idiotic green rules in Llandudno this weekend were addressed by Sunak and he was well received

    Indeed the Welsh minister responsible for the dispute has said she will review their policy
    Hmm, rather different perspective here.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/25/sunak-stands-with-net-zero-and-climate-conspiracy-group-at-farming-protest

    'He appeared alongside farmer Gareth Wyn Jones and stood next to placards emblazoned with the logo for the campaign “No Farmers No Food”.

    [...]

    The No Farmers No Food campaign is anti net-zero and has shared conspiracy theories about climate change action, while Melville has questioned the effects of climate breakdown as well as sharing conspiracy theories about net zero.

    Its manifesto accuses the UK government of having an “obsession with net zero” and calls for it to end climate measures.

    The Twitter/X account for the group shared a conspiracy theory that the World Economic Forum (WEF) is going to force people to eat bugs to reach net zero, [...]'

    Of course, being on the same podium doesn't incriminate someone. Unless it is the argument of a Tory propagandist attacking Labour politicians ...? [edited]
    Gareth Wyn Jones has received death threats and a Labour msp has called the farmers 'cranks' this morning to their fury

    I was caught up with the Farmers tractor prossesion on Saturday and it was very well attended

    Furthermore, as I reported earlier farmers from across Europe are demonstrating at the the EU headquarters over green issues with water cannon deployed
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    148grss said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Any explanations for this phenomenon from the PB brains trust.

    "More people in early 20s out of work from ill health than early 40s - study"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-68399392

    Long Covid seems to be really shit and potentially has a bigger impact on the young because of the way it "ages" the body? So it could just be, for instance, that 20 somethings are starting to get problems more associated with 40 and 50 somethings - which seems more significant in a younger person then those who are "expected" to have those issues. Whereas 40 year olds having issues more similar to people in their 50s is probably not as significant a jump? Although IANAE, so would defer to the medical professionals in the group.
    We discussed this. You posted data that wasn't actually from the paper and with a nonsense idea like 'ageing' the body via covid.

    I think it more likely we are seeing lots more mental health issues (partly related to covid, partly because the young are convinced that there has never been a worse time to be a youngster*)

    * They have some cause for complaint re housing costs etc, but most other things are far better now than they ever have been. Heinkel 111's are not cruising over London dropping bombs, we are not facing a novel disease with a kill rate of around 50%, there is an NHS (albeit stretched).
    Is there any evidence that Long Covid is a different animal to PVS (Post-Viral Syndrome), which is connected with influenza and other viruses?

    Genuine question: I don't know. I remember lots of 'news' about Long Covid during the pandemic, but much of that appears, at least, to have dissipated.
  • TOPPING said:

    Can we institute a petition to stop @Scott_xP doing his "Richi" thing which is fucking irritating and provokes the same response in thinking people as it does towards those using "Bliar", "Liebour" et al.

    I rather miss David Chameleon, a classic of the genre.
    Useless is a classic of the genre, and still hilarious every time the usual suspects use it.
    I must have missed that one: care to share?

    P.S. Liz Trump is a new one, that I think has some potential.
    Yousaf = Useless
    Ah, yes it is coming back to me now.

    I think @Big_G_NorthWales is a proponent of Mark Greatford, aka The Drake, aka The King.
    Drakeford has plummeted in the polls and the Welsh Farmers demonstrating about the idiotic green rules in Llandudno this weekend were addressed by Sunak and he was well received

    Indeed the Welsh minister responsible for the dispute has said she will review their policy
    The Drake is the messiah.

    Arguably the greatest man ever to born to Wales; a visionary beyond compare.

    All speak his name in hushed tones: some call him 'sir'; others 'king'; but those that know him just call him 'friend'.

    In the words of @Casino_Royale: "show some respect".

    Respect has to be earned and greatest man ever born in Wales - dear me just sycophantic nonsense
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,186
    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    JRM coming out for Shamima Begum

    There should only be one class of British citizen and that includes Shamima Begum.

    https://x.com/jacob_rees_mogg/status/1762042777917899168?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Well that has spoiled my day. I agree with Mogg.
    Thats the thing about ideas, their validity is not dependent on those who espouse them...
    That reminded me of something.
    https://twitter.com/BlueATLGeorgia/status/1761554143729070328
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    edited February 26

    148grss said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Any explanations for this phenomenon from the PB brains trust.

    "More people in early 20s out of work from ill health than early 40s - study"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-68399392

    Long Covid seems to be really shit and potentially has a bigger impact on the young because of the way it "ages" the body? So it could just be, for instance, that 20 somethings are starting to get problems more associated with 40 and 50 somethings - which seems more significant in a younger person then those who are "expected" to have those issues. Whereas 40 year olds having issues more similar to people in their 50s is probably not as significant a jump? Although IANAE, so would defer to the medical professionals in the group.
    We discussed this. You posted data that wasn't actually from the paper and with a nonsense idea like 'ageing' the body via covid.

    I think it more likely we are seeing lots more mental health issues (partly related to covid, partly because the young are convinced that there has never been a worse time to be a youngster*)

    * They have some cause for complaint re housing costs etc, but most other things are far better now than they ever have been. Heinkel 111's are not cruising over London dropping bombs, we are not facing a novel disease with a kill rate of around 50%, there is an NHS (albeit stretched).
    My language was clumsy, yes, I did indeed accept that as not a medical professional. And you're correct, I couldn't link the table with the cited work. But there are lots of papers looking at a contrast in effects in young and old, where the younger people who survived covid seem to have worse after effects, and the older people who survived covid seemed to typically have less severe after effects.

    I would also agree that the economic conditions are dire - although more than you suggest as we experienced a decade of wage stagnation worse than other peacetime since the Napoleonic wars. And, arguably, people in other periods (like after the Blitz) had an outlet for hope - a new Labour party offering a changing world and social services for the poor that they previously hadn't had (my great nan still remembered well into her 100th year that she owed a doctor some money for some medical care her child had received prior to the institution of the NHS). I would personally suggest that young people today do not have that hope, given the shortening of the political horizon, the ideological hegemony that exists and the impending climate catastrophe unfolding in front of our eyes (which includes both the fact lots of flowers and trees are flowering right now despite we are still not out of February, as well as increasingly worrying reports of the Gulf Stream collapsing in the next decade - just to mention two things that we can see and will impact us here in the UK).

    Increasingly I sit at my job with the cognitive dissonance that the world seems to be crumbling around us and that I'm still doing my 9-5 because I have to. And, whilst I am more pessimistic and politically active than most in my office, other people say the same (unprompted). Every person my age who says "the weather we're having is really nice" follows it up by saying "isn't climate change so obvious, we're all so fucked".
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,670

    Is Truss the apotheosis of the weird mental dislocation of those who are both Ukraine and Trump cheerleaders? If POTUS Trump II comes to pass, the train wreck of those absolutely contradictory positions colliding headlong may be one of the few entertainments available.





    I refuse to believe that Truss is *really* so stupid as to believe that this *is* a coherent position to take, and therefore it is just (basically abhorrent) opportunism.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    TOPPING said:

    Can we institute a petition to stop @Scott_xP doing his "Richi" thing which is fucking irritating and provokes the same response in thinking people as it does towards those using "Bliar", "Liebour" et al.

    I rather miss David Chameleon, a classic of the genre.
    Useless is a classic of the genre, and still hilarious every time the usual suspects use it.
    I must have missed that one: care to share?

    P.S. Liz Trump is a new one, that I think has some potential.
    Yousaf = Useless
    Ah, yes it is coming back to me now.

    I think @Big_G_NorthWales is a proponent of Mark Greatford, aka The Drake, aka The King.
    Drakeford has plummeted in the polls and the Welsh Farmers demonstrating about the idiotic green rules in Llandudno this weekend were addressed by Sunak and he was well received

    Indeed the Welsh minister responsible for the dispute has said she will review their policy
    The Drake is the messiah.

    Arguably the greatest man ever to born to Wales; a visionary beyond compare.

    All speak his name in hushed tones: some call him 'sir'; others 'king'; but those that know him just call him 'friend'.

    In the words of @Casino_Royale: "show some respect".

    Respect has to be earned and greatest man ever born in Wales - dear me just sycophantic nonsense
    They say that his genius 20mph vision was the making of The Drake: the immortal that walks among us.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,954
    .
    148grss said:

    Yeah, but Prevent doesn't work in any particularly useful way - lots of people who really shouldn't get referred to Prevent, and there is not good enough support to even engage with those who are referred and make sure that they aren't succumbing to radicalisation. Also the constant calls from Home Secretaries bemoaning that the far-right referrals are too high (despite attacks on MPs coming from that group too, as well as general acts of violence if not literal bombings) makes many people who have to deal with Prevent feel that the government only want to use this to target Muslims.

    I think you are completely wrong. Prevent and the anti-terrorism policing is very effective, there are far more people stopped before committing crimes, and caught early when they commit criminal acts than there are terrorist attacks. Compared to what happened in Northern Ireland it's night and day,a lot less draconian and much more effective.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,614
    edited February 26

    TOPPING said:

    Can we institute a petition to stop @Scott_xP doing his "Richi" thing which is fucking irritating and provokes the same response in thinking people as it does towards those using "Bliar", "Liebour" et al.

    I rather miss David Chameleon, a classic of the genre.
    Useless is a classic of the genre, and still hilarious every time the usual suspects use it.
    I must have missed that one: care to share?

    P.S. Liz Trump is a new one, that I think has some potential.
    Yousaf = Useless
    Ah, yes it is coming back to me now.

    I think @Big_G_NorthWales is a proponent of Mark Greatford, aka The Drake, aka The King.
    Drakeford has plummeted in the polls and the Welsh Farmers demonstrating about the idiotic green rules in Llandudno this weekend were addressed by Sunak and he was well received

    Indeed the Welsh minister responsible for the dispute has said she will review their policy
    The Drake is the messiah.

    Arguably the greatest man ever to born to Wales; a visionary beyond compare.

    All speak his name in hushed tones: some call him 'sir'; others 'king'; but those that know him just call him 'friend'.

    In the words of @Casino_Royale: "show some respect".

    Respect has to be earned and greatest man ever born in Wales - dear me just sycophantic nonsense
    They say that his genius 20mph vision was the making of The Drake: the immortal that walks among us.
    You clearly have not read the upto date report on this controversy I posted a few days ago and it is directly responsifor his falling poll rating

    https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/lack-consistency-public-engagement-says-28687008#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,682

    148grss said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Any explanations for this phenomenon from the PB brains trust.

    "More people in early 20s out of work from ill health than early 40s - study"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-68399392

    Long Covid seems to be really shit and potentially has a bigger impact on the young because of the way it "ages" the body? So it could just be, for instance, that 20 somethings are starting to get problems more associated with 40 and 50 somethings - which seems more significant in a younger person then those who are "expected" to have those issues. Whereas 40 year olds having issues more similar to people in their 50s is probably not as significant a jump? Although IANAE, so would defer to the medical professionals in the group.
    We discussed this. You posted data that wasn't actually from the paper and with a nonsense idea like 'ageing' the body via covid.

    I think it more likely we are seeing lots more mental health issues (partly related to covid, partly because the young are convinced that there has never been a worse time to be a youngster*)

    * They have some cause for complaint re housing costs etc, but most other things are far better now than they ever have been. Heinkel 111's are not cruising over London dropping bombs, we are not facing a novel disease with a kill rate of around 50%, there is an NHS (albeit stretched).
    Is there any evidence that Long Covid is a different animal to PVS (Post-Viral Syndrome), which is connected with influenza and other viruses?

    Genuine question: I don't know. I remember lots of 'news' about Long Covid during the pandemic, but much of that appears, at least, to have dissipated.
    I suspect not. I think a lot of what we have seen is more aligned with CFS/FND (Functional Neuronal Disorders). I read a brilliant article a while back with a range of long covid patients. One claimed not to have had covid (at least knowingly) but has long covid (?!). He used all the phrases that FND sufferers tend to use "I know that If I do too much one day, I will be really unwell the next..." and so on.
    FND is serious and can be debilitating, and is just as worthy of medical treatment as any other condition, just that the underlying nature is not a physical cause.

    Clearly a group of those with long covid have been physically injured (lung scarring is an obvious one) but the hysteria about it has not helped, and I think government messaging, plus loud campaigns about long covid have actively made the situation worse.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,469

    Roger said:

    Jonathan said:

    FPT - I can't recall who posted it but whatever you think of Matthew Goodwin that exchange between him and Portillo on GB News was excellent.

    A must watch.

    Oh goodness, you've not succumbed to Fox News GBeebies?
    Have you seen the clip?

    Try it. Sometimes even I think Channel4 and The Guardian has a point.
    I thought it was very disappointing. I'm quite a fan of Portillo and though he added very little I at least expected him to conduct a debate that might bring something insightful from Goodwin.

    Goodwins argument was quite simply that the David Amess killing and the Arena bombing were both carried out by islamists so call it as it is; have an immediate halt on immigration and declare war on Islam.

    Where this falls down Is that Amess was killed by a man born and brought up in southwalk who apparently had very little religion in his upbringing and the Arena bombing by someone born and brought up in Rushome

    Anyone know how you apply for a professorship these days?
    Except as a teenager he was referred to Prevent and considered himself an affiliate of Islamic State.

    The Left really do need to develop an answer to this, rather than ignoring it and fingerpointing anyone who raises concerns about it as a closet racist, or you will find yourselves superseded in office by those who propose far more radical solutions - think forced deportations.
    What is the solution? A good scheme to counter radicalisation (Prevent could be improved); good policing of radical groups (police funding has been cut); good mental health services (NHS is underfunded); good security for MPs; building a welcoming society that doesn't view all Muslims as dangerous (removing the whip from Islamophobic politicians is a good start).

    Taylor & Soni (2017), in a review of Prevent in schools, suggest: "Radicalisation refers to views and not acts. Radicalised views are not acts of terrorism and are not in themselves a threat. The focus on identifying and intervening adopted by the CTSA and Prevent leads to problematic culture of surveillance which inhibits the creation of safe spaces in which to debate radical views. In fact, the lived experiences of Prevent in schools by the participants of these studies suggest it deters important critical discussion through fear and further alienates and villainises groups who may already feel alienated and villainised, threatening their sense of belonging and exacerbating the likelihood of creating intergroup conflict in our society. Instead, a focus on identifying areas of ‘overlapping consensus’ (Panjwani, Citation2016, p. 330) between the variety of viewpoints held by pupils in the UK and modern, liberal values could help reduce perceived tensions and create a greater sense of unity within our educational settings. Furthermore, programmes such as Tapestry can genuinely engage pupils with the issue of radicalisation and should be considered a priority for future government funding."

    Jerome & Elwick (2017) write: "School responses to the Prevent agenda have tended to focus primarily on ‘safeguarding’ approaches, which essentially perceive some young people as being ‘at risk’ and potentially as presenting a risk to others. In this article, we consider evidence from secondary school students who experienced a curriculum project on terrorism, extremism and radicalisation. We argue that a curriculum response which addresses the acquisition of knowledge can build students’ critical capacity for engagement with radicalisation through enhanced political literacy and media literacy. We further argue this represents a genuinely educational response to Prevent, as opposed to a more restrictive securitised approach."

    That all said, some of the people who raise concerns, over and over again while ignoring other threats of political violence or ills in society, who make up lies about immigration and crime, are racists (and often without a closet). Fingerpointing at racists is appropriate and part of how we combat radicalisation.
    While the sentiments above are nice - “let’s be welcoming to everyone” - what do you do with people advocating racial/religious supremacism, violent homophobia etc.

    For example some of the people I went to university with were quite clear that gay people “from their community” were, in their minds, needing punishment. There were a number of assaults on gay students from ethnic minorities - nearly certainly from this world view.

    Should we engage them in a balanced, socially conscious debate? Or do as one student union security guard did and throw a large industrial dustbin at them? (He disturbed a group assault on an individual)
    You should engage with them *at a younger age* in a balanced, socially conscious debate with “a focus on identifying areas of ‘overlapping consensus’ (Panjwani, 2016, p. 330) between the variety of viewpoints held by pupils in the UK and modern, liberal values”.

    You don’t presume that the problems of homophobia are confined to any one community, recognising, for example, the pernicious influence of Andrew Tate. You tackle big tech to do something about the damages that can be done my social media.

    You do something about Kemi Badenoch lying about engagement with LGBT groups, as per https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ben-bradshaw-prime-minister-commons-canada-rishi-sunak-b2500030.html

    And, as a last resort, you throw dustbins at them.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,168
    edited February 26

    TOPPING said:

    Can we institute a petition to stop @Scott_xP doing his "Richi" thing which is fucking irritating and provokes the same response in thinking people as it does towards those using "Bliar", "Liebour" et al.

    I rather miss David Chameleon, a classic of the genre.
    Useless is a classic of the genre, and still hilarious every time the usual suspects use it.
    I must have missed that one: care to share?

    P.S. Liz Trump is a new one, that I think has some potential.
    Yousaf = Useless
    Ah, yes it is coming back to me now.

    I think @Big_G_NorthWales is a proponent of Mark Greatford, aka The Drake, aka The King.
    Drakeford has plummeted in the polls and the Welsh Farmers demonstrating about the idiotic green rules in Llandudno this weekend were addressed by Sunak and he was well received

    Indeed the Welsh minister responsible for the dispute has said she will review their policy
    The Drake is the messiah.

    Arguably the greatest man ever to born to Wales; a visionary beyond compare.

    All speak his name in hushed tones: some call him 'sir'; others 'king'; but those that know him just call him 'friend'.

    In the words of @Casino_Royale: "show some respect".

    Respect has to be earned and greatest man ever born in Wales - dear me just sycophantic nonsense
    I agree. Historians acknowledge that the greatest Welshman was St David, just pipping Dylan Thomas, with the Drake a close third.

    No need to exaggerate his position, and if I know the Drake like I think I do, he'd humbly accept that others in the history of the Principality have made a reasonable contribution.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,954
    mwadams said:

    I refuse to believe that Truss is *really* so stupid as to believe that this *is* a coherent position to take, and therefore it is just (basically abhorrent) opportunism.

    You might be right, but I wouldn't dismiss the possibilty that Truss is a bloody idiot.
This discussion has been closed.