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Why we are unikely to see a 1992 redux – politicalbetting.com
Why we are unikely to see a 1992 redux – politicalbetting.com
And here’s what Neil Kinnock himself recently told me: “If he lives for a million years, Rishi Sunak is never going to be John Major.” https://t.co/S2dvx6AmK9
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Not good content, perhaps, but content...
I’m not sure what has got into the i newspaper lately.
The opinion polls look nothing like 1992. In the two years leading to the vote there were alternating Conservative and Labour leads, with little or nothing in double-digits for either party. Labour last managed a 10% lead a full year before the GE
In the twelve months leading to the 1992 General Election, the reds and blues alternated opinion poll leads, with neither party having more than a single digit lead in any poll:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1992_United_Kingdom_general_election
This time we haven’t seen a Conservative opinion poll lead of any sort since December 2021. Instead, Labour have been regularly polling double digit leads, and often above 20% with the Conservative Party’s share of the vote between 10% and 20% lower than anything in the run up to 1992.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
The media would love this to be a closer race than it looks like being and will print any old rubbish if it makes their wish come true.
The home secretary warns that malign actors will use the technology to hijacking elections
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/james-cleverly-deepfakes-threat-next-general-election-bwmjcdfpm (£££)
UK public services will buckle under planned spending cuts, economists warn
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/26/uk-public-services-will-buckle-under-planned-spending-cuts-economists-warn
Great British Railways tells i that staff working on other issues surrounding rail as project progress stalls
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/staff-full-pay-government-rail-doesnt-exist-2922221 (£££)
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/25/koch-afp-nikki-haley-00143212
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68396567
So we're going to get effectively a few pennies of money that doesn't exist, spent on projects that are frequently not transport and anyway haven't been approved, in areas that are not London, to appease people who won't vote for Sunak.
I'm agreeing with Cleverly about the threat from people who are deeply fake...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Mpaemn0SrM
When various plans for Hammersmith bridge were being held up by a small number of objectors, I asked - “Why not just buy the properties? Offer twice the market rate. Cash down, 60 minutes to decide.”
trusting local communities to make their own decisions.
TLDR: they aren't great. The collapse of his business empire is a real possibility with all the implications that might have for his candidacy.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/feb/26/school-summer-holidays-half-term-england-calendar-nuffield-foundation-report
No chance of it being implemented today?
Proudest I've ever been about a Liverpool.
That chant of Allez, Allez, Allez in extra time will live me for ever.
The one thing it does though is to help Labour . The Muslim population might not like Labours stance but have been reminded of the alternative .
It also looks very hypocritical of the Tories and their media arse lickers. It’s clear that the Tory party have decided that fermenting division and hate is going to be part of their electoral strategy .
In the damp morning gloaming I kicked off by demonstrating how I wanted the various different vines pruned. And proceeded to select the wrong cane at the base of one and cut off the main trunk in front of the whole crew. Oops.
Whereas in the UK everything is delegated from the centre, and councils live on the whim of the government and individual ministers, all of whom fail to resist the temptation to use and abuse local government as part of whatever national objectives or problems they might have at the time.
And as Klopp says the support we give the team from stands is amazing.
There's a reason why we pulled off the greatest comeback since Lazarus when we came back from 3 nil to knock out Barca in 2019.
Every department except Health, Defence and Overseas Aid is unprotected, so cuts across the board are baked into his spending plans.
Tax cuts before the election in an attempt to mitigate Conservative losses - and an unholy fiscal mess afterwards for the incoming government.
Yonks ago, a friend of mine went on a mountain leadership course in Scotland. They were well above the snowline (I think in the Cairngorms), and the teacher was a well-known British mountaineer.
They stood around in the snow and ice as he described how to use an ice axe. He then did a demonstration. Except one of his crampons had bitten to deeply into the ice, and he jumped, his lower leg remained in place, shattering his knee. He lay on the snow and (apparently calmly) said something like: "if you remember the lesson we did on emergencies, I'd appreciate if one you could call mountain rescue..."
@Parody_PM
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Tory MPs are worried that suspending Lee Anderson might lose us support in the all-important 'thick racist bastard' demographic.
Mogg is merely thrown is as an example of the utter dross that has been able to find its way into the cabinet.
Anyway after the Anderson episode the Tories just look like hypocrites.
You feel pride for things you contribute directly to, *your* achievements. Feeling pride for the achievements of others just makes it look as though you've got f-all to be proud of in reality.
Surely there are still some bigots who wouldn't vote for a Hindu PM* but these must only be an odd percent or so, and probably cancelled out by the opposite effect amongst some British South Asians. Certainly that seems true in Leicester.
The reasons that Sunaks government are unpopular are more straightforward. His party is incoherent and split over direction, and he personally is unable to either give it clear leadership or communication.
* same goes for Muslim mayoral candidates too.
You can feel pride in friends, colleagues, extended family, community, club and country.
There's nothing unusual about it at all.
https://spacenews.com/flawless-photonics-kicking-glass/
Silicon Valley startup Flawless Photonics has produced more than 5 kilometers of ZBLAN on the International Space Station in two weeks.
It’s an achievement that eluded other companies that tried to produce the fluoride glass in microgravity...
..“The moon shot here is making undersea cables with ZBLAN,” said Michael Vestel, Flawless Photonics chief technology officer and vice president.
ZBLAN is far more transparent than silica, the fiber-optic glass in undersea communications cables. Improved transparency translates to less signal attenuation.
So, instead of having inline optical repeaters to boost the signal in submarine communications cables “every 40 or 50 kilometers, you could have them at distances of 10 or 100 times that,” said Vestel, who earned a PhD in materials science and engineering from the University of California, Berkeley. “Why does that matter? It turns out the power of those amplifiers consumes energy on the order of 1 percent to 1.5 percent of the entire global budget of energy.”
..
With current cost into orbit, this is a potentially profitable venture quite soon.
I quite like the suggestion for longer half terms. They have them at the school where my grandson teaches and it seems to be good for him, and his family.
I've just read James O'Brien's 'How They Broke Britain', A very good read.
"The Tories are making the same mistake that the posh boys around Corbyn made assuming that thick racist Anderson represents the working class as the violent pilfering Ian Lavery fulfilled their stereotypical view of of the proles."
https://twitter.com/ExStrategist/status/1761958555655995521?t=MeCnN0i74zN99RpmtzBMZg&s=19
Harper: "This is dancing on pin heads"
And families need a decent summer break to be able to get away all together.
I have always thought the South African system where provinces stagger their school holidays a good method. It makes their resorts less crowded and is better for both vacationers and for their domestic tourist industry.
Is there any need for Devon and Leics to have the same time off?
They're just going through the motions.
If Labour have such plans, they are keeping them pretty quiet.
In any case is it wrong to be proud of Scotland too?
A must watch.
Oddly 33/1 is what Hills have for 'Tories to lose 1-50 seats (20/1 for 51-100 seats).
That looks to me like a real gap in the betting markets. can this be explained?
Personally I think Sunak's chance of being PM after the next election is about Zero, while the chance of NOM (but a Labour led government) is significant. This is on the basis that if the friendless Tories lose only 55 seats (310) they won't be allowed by the 340 others (324 approx allowing for SF and DUP) to form a government.
Fox NewsGBeebies?On rounds of local radio this morning, the PM
- Says Lee Anderson's choice of words were "wrong" and "unacceptable" particularly as "tensions are running high"
- denies that the Tory party are islamphobic
- Says he wanted "to take the heat out of this situation"
Richi is just hoping if they stop talking about it people will forget
"Next PM" is a simpler bet than "number of MP lost by the Conservatives" and attracts more simpler punters getting it wrong.
If anything, PM Sunak should be longer odds, to cover the (small but non zero) possibility that he's not the candidate.
As my wife commented watching death in paradise last night that’s not my Honoré / Deshaies there’s an empty parking space (because compared to other parts of the Caribbean everyone has a car and finding a parking space is a nightmare).