politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB moves to its best YouGov position for seven weeks
The latest YouGov daily poll is out and sees the Tories still in the doldrums below the 30 mark. The comparisons in the chart above are with a week ago which was before the reported “swivel eyed loons” that a senior CON figure was said to have made about party activists.
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I have just remembered something funny.
A few years ago, some Muslim extremists were demonstrating with slogans like "Behead those who insult Islam". Energy prices were going up by more than inflation.
The Daily Telegraph's Matt, with his usual brilliance, did a cartoon of a middle-aged suburban couple demonstrating outside their house with a placard that said "Behead meter-readers".0 -
Quite interesting that the Tory AND Ukip shares have fallen given Loon-gate.
Bad sign for both.0 -
@BenM
a bit previous surely Ben? These are great snapshots of the current mood but I wouldn't read anything 2015-ish into them.
Cons: in a muddle & divided over GM, Europe, etc
LD: Just _what_ is NC up to
UKIP: ok we are beginning to realise NOTA is not a viable way to run the country
which leaves....
Lab
It'll be different next week as these issue filter down.0 -
Now this thread's working... reposted from previous
Dan Hodges - lines to take - 24 May 2013BenM said:Anyway poor old Dan Hodges will be choking on his cornflakes.
The increased Labour share is bad news for Ed because it will lead to increased scrutiny of Ed, and Ed is crap, so this increased scrutiny will reduce the Labour share
The increased Lib Dem share is bad news for Ed because it shows that the centre-left vote is once again beginning to split between Labour and the Lib Dems, probably because Ed is crap, and will make it harder for Labour to take key marginals
The decreased UKIP share is bad news for Ed because it shows that the appeal of NOTA is waning, and once voters return to the mainstream parties, because Ed is crap, they will return to Lib Dems or Conservatives
The decreased Conservative share is bad news for Ed because it shows that voters are turned off by Cameron not being tough enough on Europe/being too socially liberal, both of which are flaws which Ed (who, it may be said, is crap) shares in superabundance and therefore will, in time, suffer from the same drop in vote share.
See? It's easy to avoid choking on the cornflakes and churn out another one, if not four, articles off the back of that poll.
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Good morning, everyone.
It's worth remembering that these polls have a lot of statistical noise. Even given zero real change the numbers bobble about.0 -
This should please the tory backbenchers and calm them all down.
Jose Manuel @J0se_Manuel 8m
Beppe Grillo says Italy shall hold a combined Euro/EU referendum next year0 -
People should take care not to confuse predicting trouble with desiring trouble.
Ukip could easily have made an inflammatory comment about the murder of the soldier if they had desired a cheap opinion poll hit, but did the right thing in keeping schtum.
People raise an eyebrow at the Telegraph refusing comments on this case and the "We need To Talk About Islam" piece, but debate about the cause of this growing divide is banned in many places.
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Yes - all easily within MOE on central Con 30, Lab 40 positions.Morris_Dancer said:It's worth remembering that these polls have a lot of statistical noise. Even given zero real change the numbers bobble about.
The gruesome internals should however give Tories pause for thought....
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Morris - is it time to apply the red pen on PB2 or will that simply encourage the spammers all the more?0
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Mick_Pork said:
This should please the tory backbenchers and calm them all down.
Jose Manuel @J0se_Manuel 8m
Beppe Grillo says Italy shall hold a combined Euro/EU referendum next year
I'm sure there's no real relevance... a comedian promising a referendum that far out won't be taken seriously.0 -
Mr. Putney, I must admit I had been thinking of setting up my own F1 blog. I'd rather not, but the spam levels on the latest Monaco thread are quite horrendous. I think 3/16 comments are genuine.0
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Re: YouGov
Major change from last few polls is the London Subsample;
e.g Yesterday: Con 31; LAB 35; LD 14; UKIP 17
Today: Con 28: LAB 47; LD 10; UKIP 10.0 -
On F1, I'm going to watch P3 with especial interest. Vettel's been 9th and 10th so far. Yesterday Betfair had a lay of 1.06 (about 16/1, effectively) for him to reach Q3. A long shot, certainly, and right now I feel he will make Q3, but only just. If P3 says otherwise, though, the most counter-intuitive of bets may be of interest.
Edited extra bit: and when I say 'watch' I of course mean 'listen to'.0 -
isam said:
People should take care not to confuse predicting trouble with desiring trouble.
Ukip could easily have made an inflammatory comment about the murder of the soldier if they had desired a cheap opinion poll hit, but did the right thing in keeping schtum.
People raise an eyebrow at the Telegraph refusing comments on this case and the "We need To Talk About Islam" piece, but debate about the cause of this growing divide are banned in many places.0 -
You cannot read anything into that sub-sample whatsoever.Financier said:
Re: YouGov
Major change from last few polls is the London Subsample;
e.g Yesterday: Con 31; LAB 35; LD 14; UKIP 17
Today: Con 28: LAB 47; LD 10; UKIP 10.0 -
Good morning. I have a back ache, a sore arm, and the weather is lousy - I blame Cammo.
Well down to work:
HOW FALSE POLLS SEEM TO BE
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/8lvxse4f91/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-230513.pdf
The latest YOUGOV poll is out and now it shows a 13% lead for LABOUR
Latest YouGov / The Sun results 23rd May - CON 29%, LAB 42%, LD 11%, UKIP 13%; APP -34 are the figures.
But of course delve deeper and you find the cause. It seems that the older you get the less likely you are to vote labour, so what is the best way to skew a poll. Ask more young people how they are likely to vote. In the past polling the section for 18-24 has been negligible and they have had to star it saying that not enough had been polled to make it credible.
This time they have asked more than 200 from this group who they would vote for and of course it skews the figures.
Labour can pronounce a huge lead.
If this was the case then the May elections would have been much different but then again the pollsters or Labour for that matter wouldn't want that it doesn't make the sort of press which they want.
I wish YOUGOV would be restricted to a weekly or fortnightly poll like most other pollsters they might just get the same results as them as well then.
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And the Bolsover result for the Parish Council. And Labour lost it.
Whitwell Parish Council - Thursday 10th January 2013
The election for the vacancy on Whitwell Parish Council has taken place and the results are below. The total electrorate is 3.145 and the turnout was 14.24%.
Name of Candidate Description (if any) Number of Votes
AUSTIN, Karl Peter Hill 267
BURDETT, Simon Charles The Labour Party 179
As we await the result from yesterdays by election result for the district council I found this and wondered if it would give an indication to how the District council result may have gone as well.
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Oooh! My arm feels better.
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What I take from this poll is not the headline shares as such, but the fact that after losing part of its lead through the nonsensical Ukip-gasm, Labour has been able to stretch out another one.
A positive sign for the reds.0 -
Is stuarttruth back and railing against the liberal meeja bias in the polls?
LOL0 -
Stupid vote by the Kirk:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-22650393
If Scotland becomes independent they want a separate coronation in Scotland. Credit to Sturgeon for (earlier) dismissing such a thing.0 -
(Hit the wrong button)
It may be that the Telegraph have been made especially the targets of extremist rants; or it may be that they are unusually nervous. They were closed for comments for a long time after Margaret Thatcher died.
There was a storm of protest on the Telegraph site after SeanT's piece on Nick Griffin. I'm glad he explained himself here, and think the Telegraph owe him a profuse apology and space to make himself clear, though it may be too late for that now.
I see that our police are being dilligent in keeping Twitter fit for public consumption: http://news.sky.com/story/1095026/woolwich-murder-offensive-tweets-arrests
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And one for Australia, another for Canada I suppose. Etc. Would rapidly get out of hand. Could a 70 or thereabouts monarch stand it?Morris_Dancer said:Stupid vote by the Kirk:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-22650393
If Scotland becomes independent they want a separate coronation in Scotland. Credit to Sturgeon for (earlier) dismissing such a thing.
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Or Kim Philby, we can play this game all day.tim said:Alanbrooke said:
I don't think Lewis is German.tim said:@LewisDuckworth
This country fought a world war against your ilk, go and fuck yourself.
Neither was William Joyce0 -
Mods:page operation for me is abysmally slow (using Chrome on a PC). As I type, the textbox is responding to the keypresses very slowly. (This message has take me a couple of minutes to type so far). Reloads also seem slow.
All other tabs in my browser are working fine; am I the only person seeing this? It's making the site unusable.
I think it may be ad-related.0 -
A lot of rubbish posted by MikeK who seems incapable of reading poll details correctly .
Yougov ( as always ) under sampled 18-24 year olds and had to weight the results up . They should have polled 202 and only sampled 65 . UKIp/Other IDers were as always grossly over sampled , they should have sampled 22 but actually sampled 140 . I will leave it to the conspiracy theorists as to whether this constant over sampling is down to UKIP supporters trying to rig Yougov poll samples .
The actual result of yesterday's by election was Residents gain from Green Residents 347 Labour 256
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Not stalking you here, Ben, but do you mean that Labour Party supporters (however briefly) went over to UKIP?BenM said:What I take from this poll is not the headline shares as such, but the fact that after losing part of its lead through the nonsensical Ukip-gasm, Labour has been able to stretch out another one.
A positive sign for the reds.
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King Cole, as one might expect you've seen the immediate and obvious problem with the Kirk's idiocy.
Mr. Jessop, no time-related issue for me. On a PC, using Firefox. The ads I've got are a Vauxhall/fuel one and huitsuite.0 -
ISAM YOUR DISCUSSION WAS CLOSED YESTERDAY> CLOSED MEANS CLOSED> PLEASE DO NOT REFER TO IT AGAIN.0
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Mr. Brooke, don't worry. That's still enough to see off an invasion by a million foreign cars (for a few days, at least).0
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The comments are not mine, Mark. I'm merely copied what was written up on the web site UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015. They usually know what they're talking about and have been right in the past.MarkSenior said:A lot of rubbish posted by MikeK who seems incapable of reading poll details correctly .
Yougov ( as always ) under sampled 18-24 year olds and had to weight the results up . They should have polled 202 and only sampled 65 . UKIp/Other IDers were as always grossly over sampled , they should have sampled 22 but actually sampled 140 . I will leave it to the conspiracy theorists as to whether this constant over sampling is down to UKIP supporters trying to rig Yougov poll samples .
The actual result of yesterday's by election was Residents gain from Green Residents 347 Labour 256
Sorry to have upset your breakfast. I'm in a conciliatory mood today.
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How do UKIP supporters (or anyone else for that matter) rig a Yougov poll? It is pot luck if you are chosen to take part in one of the VI polls - Although I do 3 or 4 polls a week for Yougov this is only the second VI poll I have been sent in 5 or more years.MarkSenior said:A lot of rubbish posted by MikeK who seems incapable of reading poll details correctly .
Yougov ( as always ) under sampled 18-24 year olds and had to weight the results up . They should have polled 202 and only sampled 65 . UKIp/Other IDers were as always grossly over sampled , they should have sampled 22 but actually sampled 140 . I will leave it to the conspiracy theorists as to whether this constant over sampling is down to UKIP supporters trying to rig Yougov poll samples .
The actual result of yesterday's by election was Residents gain from Green Residents 347 Labour 256
I would be fascinated to hear how you think anyone could rig these polls - outside of the people running them which is an utterly fanciful suggestion.0 -
:yawn:
Given the front-cover of "t'Economist" OGH chooses instead to try to draw some meaningless conclusion from YouGov; a pollster known for it's fluctuations (no doubt due to the regularity of it's polling). Maybe he should run a competition: "Given the last two polls, predict the outcome of the next YouGov daily poll. The prize will be a week's unlimited editing of every-other post by Wee-Timmy"...?
Very little betting information can be gleaned from a single YouGov poll (as Sven keeps pointing out); one may give succour to BenM whilst another may provide inspiration to seanT but, in-themselves, they offer little.* And all the while the collapse of the Eurozone creeps closer....
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21578386-euro-zone-desperately-need-boost-no-news-bad-news-sleepwalkers0 -
Yeah alright.PBModerator said:ISAM YOUR DISCUSSION WAS CLOSED YESTERDAY> CLOSED MEANS CLOSED> PLEASE DO NOT REFER TO IT AGAIN.
Why delete my last comment that was unrelated? It was pointing out the inconsistencies on what people highlight as out of order.
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i'd guess they have trouble recruiting 18-24's to their panel and plenty of pensioners on it. not rigging, but perphaps a source of inaccuracyRichard_Tyndall said:
How do UKIP supporters (or anyone else for that matter) rig a Yougov poll? It is pot luck if you are chosen to take part in one of the VI polls - Although I do 3 or 4 polls a week for Yougov this is only the second VI poll I have been sent in 5 or more years.
I would be fascinated to hear how you think anyone could rig these polls - outside of the people running them which is an utterly fanciful suggestion.
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A fine pro GET OUT OF EU article, a must read.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100217867/the-pro-eu-campaign-is-reduced-to-dressing-up-eurocrats-as-businessmen/0 -
Oh I can accept that. But Mark was asking if this was due to "UKIP supporters trying to rig Yougov poll samples". Which seems to me to be a pretty daft thing to suggest.dugarbandier said:
i'd guess they have trouble recruiting 18-24's to their panel and plenty of pensioners on it. not rigging, but perphaps a source of inaccuracyRichard_Tyndall said:
How do UKIP supporters (or anyone else for that matter) rig a Yougov poll? It is pot luck if you are chosen to take part in one of the VI polls - Although I do 3 or 4 polls a week for Yougov this is only the second VI poll I have been sent in 5 or more years.
I would be fascinated to hear how you think anyone could rig these polls - outside of the people running them which is an utterly fanciful suggestion.0 -
Do what OGH did that got him kicked off the panelRichard_Tyndall said:
I would be fascinated to hear how you think anyone could rig these polls
Only kidding, I'm sure Mark wasnt being entirely serious but at least his joking suggestion has more merit than the apparently serious criticism from posters who simply dont like the direction the poll is going in.0 -
The comment was a tongue in cheek dig at MikeK . All we know is that every Yougov poll over samples UKIP Party Iders but hopefully their weighting adjustments will correct for this . If some other pollsters also over sample UKIP supporters but do not carry out similar weighting adjustments then it will give rise to widely different UKIP VI figures from different pollsters .Richard_Tyndall said:
How do UKIP supporters (or anyone else for that matter) rig a Yougov poll? It is pot luck if you are chosen to take part in one of the VI polls - Although I do 3 or 4 polls a week for Yougov this is only the second VI poll I have been sent in 5 or more years.MarkSenior said:A lot of rubbish posted by MikeK who seems incapable of reading poll details correctly .
Yougov ( as always ) under sampled 18-24 year olds and had to weight the results up . They should have polled 202 and only sampled 65 . UKIp/Other IDers were as always grossly over sampled , they should have sampled 22 but actually sampled 140 . I will leave it to the conspiracy theorists as to whether this constant over sampling is down to UKIP supporters trying to rig Yougov poll samples .
The actual result of yesterday's by election was Residents gain from Green Residents 347 Labour 256
I would be fascinated to hear how you think anyone could rig these polls - outside of the people running them which is an utterly fanciful suggestion.
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Message to Isam/Sam
Please decide which identiy you wih to use.
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87% of Unite members vote to maintain the political fund.
Good stuff.
http://union-news.co.uk/2013/05/breaking-unite-members-vote-91-to-continue-political-fund/0 -
I disagree - I think the Kirk are right - and the comparison with Canada et al is not directly analogous - there was a "King of Scots" long before there was a Dominion of Canada.Morris_Dancer said:Stupid vote by the Kirk:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-22650393
If Scotland becomes independent they want a separate coronation in Scotland. Credit to Sturgeon for (earlier) dismissing such a thing.
At least the Kirk are not trying to pretend that independence will be "different, only the same"...
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Nobel-winning economist Edmund Phelps warns about the dangers of EU membership:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-23/nobel-laureate-phelps-warns-against-eu-as-iceland-drops-bid-2-.html
“We’re still learning about the European experiment and to what extent it’s going to succeed,” Phelps, 79, said in a telephone interview. “The possibility is not foreclosed that the experiment is going to prove unworkable, unsuccessful.”0 -
Participation 100% was it? Another record!BenM said:87% of Unite members vote to maintain the political fund.
Good stuff.
http://union-news.co.uk/2013/05/breaking-unite-members-vote-91-to-continue-political-fund/
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European Parliament issues a veiled threat to scotch US trade talks if liberalisation going too far, saying they "have teeth and can bite":
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/pressroom/content/20130520IPR08593/html/EUUS-trade-talks-keep-Parliament-on-board-MEPs-warn0 -
Yeh, Sam. Go back to using Sam. In the 'Wheel of Time" series, Isam is a name for a very nefarious character.MikeSmithson said:Message to Isam/Sam
Please decide which identiy you wih to use.
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Eurocrats threaten to strike if they have to face salary and expenses cuts:
http://www.euractiv.com/socialeurope/strike-eu-institutions-looming-5-news-5199790 -
I doubt participation was 100% in a postal ballot in what most people considered a foregone conclusion. But the trend has been for higher (sometimes significantly higher) ballots in favour of political funds.CarlottaVance said:Participation 100% was it? Another record!
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MikeSmithson said:
Message to Isam/Sam
Please decide which identiy you wih to use.
Ok. Nothing sinister or dodgy in it, just that the iPad won't let me log in as Sam. I'll check if the PC lets me login as iSam and if it does I guess I'll be iSam
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Good thing too.Socrates said:European Parliament issues a veiled threat to scotch US trade talks if liberalisation going too far, saying they "have teeth and can bite":
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/pressroom/content/20130520IPR08593/html/EUUS-trade-talks-keep-Parliament-on-board-MEPs-warn
Democratically elected chamber reminds officials of its legitimacy and ensures they will held to account.
What's not to like?
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Prospect saw a similar result on a participation rate of 37% - which I'd say was pretty respectable - my point was more about BenM's misleading description...Neil said:
I doubt participation was 100% in a postal ballot in what most people considered a foregone conclusion. But the trend has been for higher (sometimes significantly higher) ballots in favour of political funds.CarlottaVance said:Participation 100% was it? Another record!
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That they are inflicting protectionist restrictions on the UK, against the best interests of our country. Free trade with the US and Canada is one of the best things that could happen to the UK economy, and we could have had it years ago had we been independent. Instead we've banked our entire trading strategy on integration with the EU, which has gone on to be an economic disaster.BenM said:
Good thing too.Socrates said:European Parliament issues a veiled threat to scotch US trade talks if liberalisation going too far, saying they "have teeth and can bite":
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/pressroom/content/20130520IPR08593/html/EUUS-trade-talks-keep-Parliament-on-board-MEPs-warn
Democratically elected chamber reminds officials of its legitimacy and ensures they will held to account.
What's not to like?0 -
Surely if Sam had a new account it should have been " Son of Sam" ?0
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McAlpine has won - Sally is guilty of libel.
*sound of world's smallest violin*0 -
Unforeseen benefit of switching of street lights - fall in crime? Thieves afraid of the dark...
http://www.thisisbristol.co.uk/Burglars-afraid-dark-Crime-falls-Bristol-street/story-13952633-detail/story.html#axzz2Tv1m62400 -
POSBWAS.0
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Was the Berc a civil case ? Sounds expensive
I see the Co op bank non story is still over ..0 -
That was always likely. The issue is how big the damages are going to be and how much her supporters will have to raise.tim said:Sally Bercow guilty.
Time to sue those tweeters who accuse you of taking bribes Mike
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Not sure that's quite right. The article says members voted by 87% in favour, but doesn't say anything on turnout.BenM said:87% of Unite members vote to maintain the political fund.
Good stuff.
http://union-news.co.uk/2013/05/breaking-unite-members-vote-91-to-continue-political-fund/0 -
Would anyone notice?Socrates said:Eurocrats threaten to strike if they have to face salary and expenses cuts:
http://www.euractiv.com/socialeurope/strike-eu-institutions-looming-5-news-5199790 -
Whitwell residents (357) beat Labour (256) in Bolsover0
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POSBWAS? *innocent face*0
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http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKBRE94N07320130524?irpc=932
Co op bank stopping loans to new customers...
Those with existing overdrafts seem to be unaffected. ..
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Yes, you're quote right - sorry, stream of consciousness fail.Charles said:
Not sure that's quite right. The article says members voted by 87% in favour, but doesn't say anything on turnout.BenM said:87% of Unite members vote to maintain the political fund.
Good stuff.
http://union-news.co.uk/2013/05/breaking-unite-members-vote-91-to-continue-political-fund/
The motion passed by 87% of votes cast.0 -
Sounds like Sally B has agreed a settlement with Lord McAlpine. Amount not specified, but it'll be a biggy.0
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With the daily opinion polls we can see how long it takes stuff to filter through to the voting public. The YouGov percentages overall may be wrong, but the shifts are interesting in that it seems to take a few days for an event to resonate and then have an effect. Before the daily polls we would not have known that.0
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Ed Miliband's desirable Co-Op bank model - seductive, alluring, interesting figures, big bust.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/05/24/uk-co-op-bank-lending-idUKBRE94N073201305240 -
There are still some people who think that comments in digital form are immune from the law of libel.
The publicity given to the Bercow case should finally make it clear to them. The law does not differentiate between hand writting, print or the digital medium.
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It says business customers only. Individuals unaffected.dr_spyn said:Ed Miliband's desirable Co-Op bank model - seductive, alluring, interesting figures, big bust.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/05/24/uk-co-op-bank-lending-idUKBRE94N073201305240 -
Its is a non story doc - tim was goading me the other week that it had "gone nowhere"dr_spyn said:Ed Miliband's desirable Co-Op bank model - seductive, alluring, interesting figures, big bust.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/05/24/uk-co-op-bank-lending-idUKBRE94N07320130524
Must be news sense.0 -
YouGov percentages overall may be wrong,
They may be right. People may genuinely think that Ed Miliband is the man to sort out the country's problems with a landslide victory.
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Why not?tim said:
A party that introduced Police Commissioners then guaranteed a turnout of 15% is in no position to comment on turnoutCharles said:
Not sure that's quite right. The article says members voted by 87% in favour, but doesn't say anything on turnout.BenM said:87% of Unite members vote to maintain the political fund.
Good stuff.
http://union-news.co.uk/2013/05/breaking-unite-members-vote-91-to-continue-political-fund/0 -
Excellent news re Bercow.
Why the devil she didn't settle, I'll never know. She was obviously on a hiding to nothing.
Let's hope McAlpine bankrupts the Bercow family, and her pompous husband has to stand down. (I bet Farage would have a better chance in Buckingham now than in 2010!)
Quite like Sally B though, all told, even if she does seem to be a bit dense. It's that lefty woman thing of mine again...0 -
Always nice to hear you apologise tim.tim said:
I was saying that your attempt to blame Ed Milband for the Co-op Bank will work in the same circles as linking him the French economy works, a few dozen right wing blog readers.TGOHF said:
Its is a non story doc - tim was goading me the other week that it had "gone nowhere"dr_spyn said:Ed Miliband's desirable Co-Op bank model - seductive, alluring, interesting
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/05/24/uk-co-op-bank-lending-idUKBRE94N07320130524
Must be news sense.
Nowhere else.0 -
David_Evershed said:
There are still some people who think that comments in digital form are immune from the law of libel.
The publicity given to the Bercow case should finally make it clear to them. The law does not differentiate between hand writting, print or the digital medium.
Peter Hitchens (@ClarkeMicah on twitter) searches for his name and pulls up anyone who is personally attacking him, often asking them if they would say something like that to a stranger in the street.
Decent manners and common courtesy shouldnt be forgotten in the digital age (even if some on here have used the excuse that its just an online debate not real life to justify making up lies, misquotes, lack of apologies etc)
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Bercow should have listened to Mark Twain when he said:
It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt0 -
No: they made mistakes (largely at the urging of the LibDems) in the implementation of policy. High turnouts are a good things, in general.tim said:
Because they'd be hypocritical idiots.Charles said:
Why not?tim said:
A party that introduced Police Commissioners then guaranteed a turnout of 15% is in no position to comment on turnoutCharles said:
Not sure that's quite right. The article says members voted by 87% in favour, but doesn't say anything on turnout.BenM said:87% of Unite members vote to maintain the political fund.
Good stuff.
http://union-news.co.uk/2013/05/breaking-unite-members-vote-91-to-continue-political-fund/
So I guess Shapps will do it.
Maybe you have a point
Additionally, if you take the view that a government that makes mistakes can no longer comment on those areas then the Labour party won't be able to have any policies at all...0 -
I suppose one issue that might cause concern for Yougov is how often they update their party ID. I know that periodically they send out questionnaires which are clearly designed to give them an idea of the party affiliation but it is several years since I received one of these and the fact that the daily polls do not ask who you voted for at the last election does leave me with some concern about how accurate their party ID system is.MarkSenior said:
The comment was a tongue in cheek dig at MikeK . All we know is that every Yougov poll over samples UKIP Party Iders but hopefully their weighting adjustments will correct for this . If some other pollsters also over sample UKIP supporters but do not carry out similar weighting adjustments then it will give rise to widely different UKIP VI figures from different pollsters .Richard_Tyndall said:
How do UKIP supporters (or anyone else for that matter) rig a Yougov poll? It is pot luck if you are chosen to take part in one of the VI polls - Although I do 3 or 4 polls a week for Yougov this is only the second VI poll I have been sent in 5 or more years.MarkSenior said:A lot of rubbish posted by MikeK who seems incapable of reading poll details correctly .
Yougov ( as always ) under sampled 18-24 year olds and had to weight the results up . They should have polled 202 and only sampled 65 . UKIp/Other IDers were as always grossly over sampled , they should have sampled 22 but actually sampled 140 . I will leave it to the conspiracy theorists as to whether this constant over sampling is down to UKIP supporters trying to rig Yougov poll samples .
The actual result of yesterday's by election was Residents gain from Green Residents 347 Labour 256
I would be fascinated to hear how you think anyone could rig these polls - outside of the people running them which is an utterly fanciful suggestion.
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tim look that is enough backtracking- you've admitted you were wrong - lets move on.tim said:
And your understanding of the French fiscal plan is only rivalled by your legendary "Japan launches austerity" posts at the time Abenomics was announcedTGOHF said:
Always nice to hear you apologise tim.tim said:
I was saying that your attempt to blame Ed Milband for the Co-op Bank will work in the same circles as linking him the French economy works, a few dozen right wing blog readers.TGOHF said:
Its is a non story doc - tim was goading me the other week that it had "gone nowhere"dr_spyn said:Ed Miliband's desirable Co-Op bank model - seductive, alluring, interesting
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/05/24/uk-co-op-bank-lending-idUKBRE94N07320130524
Must be news sense.
Nowhere else.
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On the subject of the press, I think adding bullet point 8 to this article is a disgrace:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2328921/David-McGreavy-named-murdering-children-1973.html
Second victory for Press freedom this week after Appeal Court ruled the public does have a right to know about Boris Johnson's philandering past.
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Which is perfectly respectable. If people choose not to exercise their right to vote then they can't moan about the result. I may not personally like the political levies but if people choose that is how their union can best represent their interests then it seems absolutely right they should be allowed to do so.BenM said:
Yes, you're quote right - sorry, stream of consciousness fail.Charles said:
Not sure that's quite right. The article says members voted by 87% in favour, but doesn't say anything on turnout.BenM said:87% of Unite members vote to maintain the political fund.
Good stuff.
http://union-news.co.uk/2013/05/breaking-unite-members-vote-91-to-continue-political-fund/
The motion passed by 87% of votes cast.0 -
Man City played Chelsea this morning in America in an attempt no doubt to tap into some of the huge marketing potential of Americans who are not yet in to "Soccer"
City come from 3-0 down to to win a seven goal thriller....
hmmmm0 -
Indeed. As well as being narcissistic, vacuous and dim, she seems desperately naive. What other construction than libel did she imagine could be placed on that nasty little remark? Did she think she was being archly clever, or something?David_Evershed said:Bercow should have listened to Mark Twain when he said:
It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt
I hope she gets seriously financially clobbered. Her old man's a ghastly little poison dwarf too and he'll end up absorbing part of the hit.
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I fear you will be disappointed. Bercow will have been on some kind of deal with her own side. Well-wishers will help her out with costs and any damages. In the worst case scenario, she may be personally bankrupted, but her husband is unlikely to be affected.Bob__Sykes said:Excellent news re Bercow.
Why the devil she didn't settle, I'll never know. She was obviously on a hiding to nothing.
Let's hope McAlpine bankrupts the Bercow family, and her pompous husband has to stand down. (I bet Farage would have a better chance in Buckingham now than in 2010!)
Quite like Sally B though, all told, even if she does seem to be a bit dense. It's that lefty woman thing of mine again...
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There's an unusual lack of comment from the usual plane geeks (not an insult; I include myself) about the BA762 emergency landing at Heathrow this morning. Everyone fine, thankfully, other than the birds that appear to have been shredded and lightly fricassed in engine 2.
Anyway, it's a good opportunity to post a link to this masterpiece
http://radans.net/jens/planestory.html
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Ah, so you "like" her only in the sense that you'd give her one?Bob__Sykes said:Let's hope McAlpine bankrupts the Bercow family....Quite like Sally B though, all told, even if she does seem to be a bit dense.
I feel the same about Caroline Flint and Nadine.
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Bercow has well wishers happy to part with cash to help her out ? That would be a short queue.0
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The UK's biggest welfare queen, the FTSE, is down again today.0
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Interesting comment by Con Home on the difference in reaction between Blair and Cameron to terrorist attacks
"Tony Blair responded to 7/7 by rushing out a twelve-point plan which his Home Secretary hadn't had proper sight of, and which the Labour Chairman of the Home Affairs Select committee called "half-baked". Much of it was never implemented, which was just as well, and its most startling feature was immediately dropped - new powers to close mosques (as if that would have helped). One of its main proposals was to hold suspects without charge for up to 90 days. This was red top government: the then Prime Minister was running the country as if he were a tabloid editor."
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2013/05/by-paul-goodmanfollow-paul-on-twitter-tony-blair-responded-to-77-by-rushing-out-a-twelve-point-plan-which-his-home-secreta.html0 -
There what appears to be a good article in last week's Pharmaceutical Journal on social media and the problems. http://www.pjonline.com/news/think_you_can_just_let_loose_with_your_thoughts_on_social_media_think_again
I posted a link to it on a professional discussion website and, perchane co-incidentally, one poster, who has been consistently offensive to others announced he(?) was fed up with us and cleared off!0 -
It only takes one wealthy backer. As it's now going to be settled it is unlikely we will ever know. But in the great scheme of things this will not have been an expensive case. There were no witnesses called, discvovery would have been very limited, Bercow did not deny making the statement. The only issue was whether the Tweet was libellous and the judge has not taken very long to decide that.TGOHF said:Bercow has well wishers happy to part with cash to help her out ? That would be a short queue.
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I thought damages are going to be decided at another hearing. In which we will know then?SouthamObserver said:
It only takes one wealthy backer. As it's now going to be settled it is unlikely we will ever know. But in the great scheme of things this will not have been an expensive case. There were no witnesses called, discvovery would have been very limited, Bercow did not deny making the statement. The only issue was whether the Tweet was libellous and the judge has not taken very long to decide that.TGOHF said:Bercow has well wishers happy to part with cash to help her out ? That would be a short queue.
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