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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB moves to its best YouGov position for seven weeks

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  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413

    But in the great scheme of things this will not have been an expensive case. There were no witnesses called, discvovery would have been very limited, Bercow did not deny making the statement.

    I have every confidence that the legal profession will have found a way to make it expensive.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667
    Next said:

    TGOHF said:

    Bercow has well wishers happy to part with cash to help her out ? That would be a short queue.

    It only takes one wealthy backer. As it's now going to be settled it is unlikely we will ever know. But in the great scheme of things this will not have been an expensive case. There were no witnesses called, discvovery would have been very limited, Bercow did not deny making the statement. The only issue was whether the Tweet was libellous and the judge has not taken very long to decide that.

    I thought damages are going to be decided at another hearing. In which we will know then?

    Bercow said: "To say I'm surprised and disappointed by this is an understatement. However, I will accept the ruling as the end of the matter. I remain sorry for the distress I have caused Lord McAlpine and I repeat my apologies. I have accepted an earlier offer his lawyers made to settle this matter.

    "Today's ruling should be seen as a warning to all social media users. Things can be held to be seriously defamatory, even when you do not intent them to be defamatory and do not make any express accusation. On this, I have learned my own lesson the hard way."

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/24/sally-bercow-tweet-libelled-lord-mcalpine



  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667

    But in the great scheme of things this will not have been an expensive case. There were no witnesses called, discvovery would have been very limited, Bercow did not deny making the statement.

    I have every confidence that the legal profession will have found a way to make it expensive.

    of course! But I doubt it will be ruinous. And I would be surprised if Bercow herself was forced to pay all of whatever settlement sum is agreed.

    Reading between the lines it looks as if the framework of a deal was agreed before the ruling.

  • MarchesMarches Posts: 51

    But in the great scheme of things this will not have been an expensive case. There were no witnesses called, discvovery would have been very limited, Bercow did not deny making the statement.

    I have every confidence that the legal profession will have found a way to make it expensive.
    Lawyers are his/her master's voice. I would be very surprised to learn that she had not been advised to settle.
  • NextNext Posts: 826

    Next said:

    TGOHF said:

    Bercow has well wishers happy to part with cash to help her out ? That would be a short queue.

    It only takes one wealthy backer. As it's now going to be settled it is unlikely we will ever know. But in the great scheme of things this will not have been an expensive case. There were no witnesses called, discvovery would have been very limited, Bercow did not deny making the statement. The only issue was whether the Tweet was libellous and the judge has not taken very long to decide that.

    I thought damages are going to be decided at another hearing. In which we will know then?

    Bercow said: "To say I'm surprised and disappointed by this is an understatement. However, I will accept the ruling as the end of the matter. I remain sorry for the distress I have caused Lord McAlpine and I repeat my apologies. I have accepted an earlier offer his lawyers made to settle this matter.

    "Today's ruling should be seen as a warning to all social media users. Things can be held to be seriously defamatory, even when you do not intent them to be defamatory and do not make any express accusation. On this, I have learned my own lesson the hard way."

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/24/sally-bercow-tweet-libelled-lord-mcalpine

    I see your Guardian, and raise you the BBC:

    "A subsequent High Court hearing will determine the damages she must pay."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-22652083
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    edited May 2013
    Next said:

    Next said:

    TGOHF said:

    Bercow has well wishers happy to part with cash to help her out ? That would be a short queue.

    It only takes one wealthy backer. As it's now going to be settled it is unlikely we will ever know. But in the great scheme of things this will not have been an expensive case. There were no witnesses called, discvovery would have been very limited, Bercow did not deny making the statement. The only issue was whether the Tweet was libellous and the judge has not taken very long to decide that.

    I thought damages are going to be decided at another hearing. In which we will know then?

    Bercow said: "To say I'm surprised and disappointed by this is an understatement. However, I will accept the ruling as the end of the matter. I remain sorry for the distress I have caused Lord McAlpine and I repeat my apologies. I have accepted an earlier offer his lawyers made to settle this matter.

    "Today's ruling should be seen as a warning to all social media users. Things can be held to be seriously defamatory, even when you do not intent them to be defamatory and do not make any express accusation. On this, I have learned my own lesson the hard way."

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/24/sally-bercow-tweet-libelled-lord-mcalpine

    I see your Guardian, and raise you the BBC:

    "A subsequent High Court hearing will determine the damages she must pay."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-22652083


    I'm guessing that Bercow may want to accept the earlier offer but we have no idea if the offer is still open. Incidentally, I was impressed with the way Monbiot handled himself in this affair whereas Bercow has just confirmed her lack of class.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,243
    edited May 2013
    Comments all disappeared...

    I can just see a collection of faces and avatars, some happy, some sad others about to have their disability cut ;)
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,763
    tim said:

    Charles said:

    BenM said:

    87% of Unite members vote to maintain the political fund.

    Good stuff.

    http://union-news.co.uk/2013/05/breaking-unite-members-vote-91-to-continue-political-fund/

    Not sure that's quite right. The article says members voted by 87% in favour, but doesn't say anything on turnout.
    A party that introduced Police Commissioners then guaranteed a turnout of 15% is in no position to comment on turnout

    Any chance you might apply that principle to the alleged stoking of house price bubbles?
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    This is pretty devastating to the rightwing Welfare anecdotalists:

    @reddeviljp
    People who end up snitching on their neighbours for benefit fraud are usually wrong. Church report explains. pic.twitter.com/dCcD2SS8wU
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667
    Next said:

    Next said:

    TGOHF said:

    Bercow has well wishers happy to part with cash to help her out ? That would be a short queue.

    It only takes one wealthy backer. As it's now going to be settled it is unlikely we will ever know. But in the great scheme of things this will not have been an expensive case. There were no witnesses called, discvovery would have been very limited, Bercow did not deny making the statement. The only issue was whether the Tweet was libellous and the judge has not taken very long to decide that.

    I thought damages are going to be decided at another hearing. In which we will know then?

    Bercow said: "To say I'm surprised and disappointed by this is an understatement. However, I will accept the ruling as the end of the matter. I remain sorry for the distress I have caused Lord McAlpine and I repeat my apologies. I have accepted an earlier offer his lawyers made to settle this matter.

    "Today's ruling should be seen as a warning to all social media users. Things can be held to be seriously defamatory, even when you do not intent them to be defamatory and do not make any express accusation. On this, I have learned my own lesson the hard way."

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/24/sally-bercow-tweet-libelled-lord-mcalpine

    I see your Guardian, and raise you the BBC:

    "A subsequent High Court hearing will determine the damages she must pay."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-22652083

    /blockquote>

    McAlpine's lawyers have comfirmed she has now accepted an offer to settle that was made earlier this year.

    Andrew Reid of RMPI Solicitors said: "The apologies previously received from Mrs Bercow did not concede that her tweet was defamatory. Clearly she must now accept this fact.

    "The failure of Mrs Bercow to admit that her tweet was defamatory caused considerable unnecessary pain and suffering to Lord McAlpine and his family over the past six months.

    "With knowledge of the judgment, I am pleased to be able to say that Mrs Bercow has finally seen sense and has accepted an offer of settlement, which Lord McAlpine made back in January.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/sally-bercows-lord-mcalpine-tweet-was-libellous-rules-high-court-8630311.html

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2013
    dr_spyn said:

    Unforeseen benefit of switching of street lights - fall in crime? Thieves afraid of the dark...

    http://www.thisisbristol.co.uk/Burglars-afraid-dark-Crime-falls-Bristol-street/story-13952633-detail/story.html#axzz2Tv1m6240

    Nick Ross had a very interesting article on crime the mail the other day:
    "Crime requires more than a predisposition to offend. It will flourish when we make it easy and shrivel when we make it hard."
    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2326656/How-Jill-Dandos-death-convinced-know-crime-wrong-NICK-ROSS-tells-shocking-truth-murder-friend-real-cause-crime.html

    https://www.bitebackpublishing.com/books/crime-hardback
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667
    BenM said:

    This is pretty devastating to the rightwing Welfare anecdotalists:

    @reddeviljp
    People who end up snitching on their neighbours for benefit fraud are usually wrong. Church report explains. pic.twitter.com/dCcD2SS8wU

    It's a shame that cannot be cut and pasted. I wonder why the government - which so loves a welfare statistic, of course - does not share these ones with us. *InnocentFace*

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    'People who end up snitching on their neighbours for benefit fraud are usually wrong...'

    The word 'snitching' beautifully betrays your contempt for people who report what they suspect to be criminal activity.

    Labour would far rather this didn't happen so that a significant minority of its client state could go back to fleecing the state in peace.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,763

    Bercow should have listened to Mark Twain when he said:

    It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt

    Indeed. As well as being narcissistic, vacuous and dim, she seems desperately naive. What other construction than libel did she imagine could be placed on that nasty little remark? Did she think she was being archly clever, or something?

    I hope she gets seriously financially clobbered. Her old man's a ghastly little poison dwarf too and he'll end up absorbing part of the hit.

    The most obvious conclusion is that she thought that the programme was going to accurately name McAlpine, and that the tweet therefore wouldn't be libellous because had that been the case, it would have been true. It was an almighty punt on her part, on the accuracy of both her guesswork and the journalists' investigation.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    dr_spyn said:

    Unforeseen benefit of switching of street lights - fall in crime? Thieves afraid of the dark...

    http://www.thisisbristol.co.uk/Burglars-afraid-dark-Crime-falls-Bristol-street/story-13952633-detail/story.html#axzz2Tv1m6240

    Nick Ross had a very interesting article on crime the mail the other day:
    "Crime requires more than a predisposition to offend. It will flourish when we make it easy and shrivel when we make it hard."
    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2326656/How-Jill-Dandos-death-convinced-know-crime-wrong-NICK-ROSS-tells-shocking-truth-murder-friend-real-cause-crime.html

    https://www.bitebackpublishing.com/books/crime-hardback

    "Crime requires more than a predisposition to offend. It will flourish when we make it easy and shrivel when we make it hard."

    Except he seems to have missed the coming of mobile phones, tablets and iPads. So if his idea is correct then crime should have gone up or simply switched from stealing car stereos to stealing mobile phones.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    BenM said:

    Quite interesting that the Tory AND Ukip shares have fallen given Loon-gate.

    Bad sign for both.

    The trend for UKIP is still positive.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary

  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795

    BenM said:

    This is pretty devastating to the rightwing Welfare anecdotalists:

    @reddeviljp
    People who end up snitching on their neighbours for benefit fraud are usually wrong. Church report explains. pic.twitter.com/dCcD2SS8wU

    It's a shame that cannot be cut and pasted. I wonder why the government - which so loves a welfare statistic, of course - does not share these ones with us. *InnocentFace*

    Very good point.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MrJones said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Unforeseen benefit of switching of street lights - fall in crime? Thieves afraid of the dark...

    http://www.thisisbristol.co.uk/Burglars-afraid-dark-Crime-falls-Bristol-street/story-13952633-detail/story.html#axzz2Tv1m6240

    Nick Ross had a very interesting article on crime the mail the other day:
    "Crime requires more than a predisposition to offend. It will flourish when we make it easy and shrivel when we make it hard."
    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2326656/How-Jill-Dandos-death-convinced-know-crime-wrong-NICK-ROSS-tells-shocking-truth-murder-friend-real-cause-crime.html

    https://www.bitebackpublishing.com/books/crime-hardback
    "Crime requires more than a predisposition to offend. It will flourish when we make it easy and shrivel when we make it hard."

    Except he seems to have missed the coming of mobile phones, tablets and iPads. So if his idea is correct then crime should have gone up or simply switched from stealing car stereos to stealing mobile phones.
    It did.

    http://www.economist.com/node/5175837


  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Stupid vote by the Kirk:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-22650393

    If Scotland becomes independent they want a separate coronation in Scotland. Credit to Sturgeon for (earlier) dismissing such a thing.

    Should Scotland become independent again then I'd certainly favour a Scottish coronation. Before the 1707 Act of Union the last Scottish monarch to be crowned was Charles II in 1651 having succeeded his father as king in 1649 following the regicide.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,300
    Silly Sally's been found guilty of libel then? I guess that means the attention seeker will be appearing on out TV screens even more as she attempts to find the funds to pay Lord M's damages? :(
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667
    taffys said:

    'People who end up snitching on their neighbours for benefit fraud are usually wrong...'

    The word 'snitching' beautifully betrays your contempt for people who report what they suspect to be criminal activity.

    Labour would far rather this didn't happen so that a significant minority of its client state could go back to fleecing the state in peace.

    Is that why Labour increased the resources that went into fighting benefit fraud?

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,441
    Filleted kippers for lunch - eat your your heart out David Cameron.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    MrJones said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Unforeseen benefit of switching of street lights - fall in crime? Thieves afraid of the dark...

    http://www.thisisbristol.co.uk/Burglars-afraid-dark-Crime-falls-Bristol-street/story-13952633-detail/story.html#axzz2Tv1m6240

    Nick Ross had a very interesting article on crime the mail the other day:
    "Crime requires more than a predisposition to offend. It will flourish when we make it easy and shrivel when we make it hard."
    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2326656/How-Jill-Dandos-death-convinced-know-crime-wrong-NICK-ROSS-tells-shocking-truth-murder-friend-real-cause-crime.html

    https://www.bitebackpublishing.com/books/crime-hardback
    "Crime requires more than a predisposition to offend. It will flourish when we make it easy and shrivel when we make it hard."

    Except he seems to have missed the coming of mobile phones, tablets and iPads. So if his idea is correct then crime should have gone up or simply switched from stealing car stereos to stealing mobile phones.
    It did.

    http://www.economist.com/node/5175837




    I know it did. I'm saying his article was nonsense because he's saying crime went down because it became harder to steal stuff. It didn't get harder it got easier because of mobile phones, tablets etc.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,397
    JackW said:

    Stupid vote by the Kirk:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-22650393

    If Scotland becomes independent they want a separate coronation in Scotland. Credit to Sturgeon for (earlier) dismissing such a thing.

    Should Scotland become independent again then I'd certainly favour a Scottish coronation. Before the 1707 Act of Union the last Scottish monarch to be crowned was Charles II in 1651 having succeeded his father as king in 1649 following the regicide.

    Has Scotland ever had a King Jack before?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Stupid vote by the Kirk:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-22650393

    If Scotland becomes independent they want a separate coronation in Scotland. Credit to Sturgeon for (earlier) dismissing such a thing.

    Should Scotland become independent again then I'd certainly favour a Scottish coronation. Before the 1707 Act of Union the last Scottish monarch to be crowned was Charles II in 1651 having succeeded his father as king in 1649 following the regicide.

    Has Scotland ever had a King Jack before?
    No but you should surely be Mistress of the Robes should it come to pass !!

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667

    Filleted kippers for lunch - eat your your heart out David Cameron.

    Cornish pastie for me :-)

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Filleted kippers for lunch - eat your your heart out David Cameron.

    I admit to being rather partial to kippers which makes my aversion to the human variety a wee bit perplexing ?!?

    Kipper pies .... Hhmmm not too sure ??

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited May 2013
    Oh my. Someone's not a fan.

    Bercow had challenged McAlpine’s claim insisting her tweet was part of a widely-recognised pattern of being an attention-seeking cretin who degrades the office of Speaker of the House of Commons almost as much as her ghastly little husband.

    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/twitter-not-allowed-to-be-completely-full-of-shit-2013052470025
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Anorak said:

    Oh my. Someone's not a fan.

    Bercow had challenged McAlpine’s claim insisting her tweet was part of a widely-recognised pattern of being an attention-seeking cretin who degrades the office of Speaker of the House of Commons almost as much as her ghastly little husband.

    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/twitter-not-allowed-to-be-completely-full-of-shit-2013052470025

    Nasty little piece of misogyny from Mash. She is not an appendage of her husband.

  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 993
    "I admit to being rather partial to kippers which makes my aversion to the human variety a wee bit perplexing ?!?"

    On the contrary Jack, liking the fishy ones whilst being averse to UKIP is a well regarded test of sanity - fail and you are off to the care home!
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    JackW said:

    Anorak said:

    Oh my. Someone's not a fan.

    Bercow had challenged McAlpine’s claim insisting her tweet was part of a widely-recognised pattern of being an attention-seeking cretin who degrades the office of Speaker of the House of Commons almost as much as her ghastly little husband.

    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/twitter-not-allowed-to-be-completely-full-of-shit-2013052470025

    Nasty little piece of misogyny from Mash. She is not an appendage of her husband.

    ...but she's only known because of him, so I don't think it's a black and white as all that.

    Or would Michelle Obama being caught shoplifting not impact her husband's office?
  • MarchesMarches Posts: 51
    JackW said:

    Anorak said:

    Oh my. Someone's not a fan.

    Bercow had challenged McAlpine’s claim insisting her tweet was part of a widely-recognised pattern of being an attention-seeking cretin who degrades the office of Speaker of the House of Commons almost as much as her ghastly little husband.

    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/twitter-not-allowed-to-be-completely-full-of-shit-2013052470025

    Nasty little piece of misogyny from Mash. She is not an appendage of her husband.

    Yet her relevance is drawn almost entirely from whom she is married to.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,441
    JackW said:

    Filleted kippers for lunch - eat your your heart out David Cameron.

    I admit to being rather partial to kippers which makes my aversion to the human variety a wee bit perplexing ?!?

    Kipper pies .... Hhmmm not too sure ??

    If only I had a liking for fruitcake I could do cameron lunches .......
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,962
    Polruan said:

    There's an unusual lack of comment from the usual plane geeks (not an insult; I include myself) about the BA762 emergency landing at Heathrow this morning. Everyone fine, thankfully, other than the birds that appear to have been shredded and lightly fricassed in engine 2.

    Anyway, it's a good opportunity to post a link to this masterpiece

    http://radans.net/jens/planestory.html

    In my defence, I was working. :-)

    It'll be interesting to see what happened to the plane - if it was a bird strike (there seems to be some doubt on the radio). But thank goodness everyone was okay.

    It throw up yet more questions about the capacity problems at Heathrow, and how best to fix them. One thing is for certain: the current situation cannot continue forever.

    Oh, and that website's brilliant.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    Socrates said:

    That they are inflicting protectionist restrictions on the UK, against the best interests of our country.

    Presumably it is literally impossible for the EU to expel any country from membership, right?

    What would actually happen in EU terms if, say, Lithuania elected a fascist government that then reintroduced the death penalty? What's the actual mechanism for reversing that law or removing that government, anyone know?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,300
    edited May 2013
    So as I sit here on 24th May theres rain lashing down on the window, a howling north-easterly gale and the temperature's just 5C.

    Whatever happened to the Mediterranean Climate we were promised in the 1990's? The weather seems to have become more Nordic than Spainish? :(
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Socrates said:

    That they are inflicting protectionist restrictions on the UK, against the best interests of our country.

    Presumably it is literally impossible for the EU to expel any country from membership, right?

    What would actually happen in EU terms if, say, Lithuania elected a fascist government that then reintroduced the death penalty? What's the actual mechanism for reversing that law or removing that government, anyone know?
    Given their inability to reverse the constitutional changes in Hungary, they'll be able to do sweet FA apart from some huffing and puffing.
  • GIN1138 said:

    So as I sit here on 24th May theres rain lashing down on the window, a howling north-easterly gale and the temperature's just 5C.

    Whatever happened to the Mediterranean Climate we were promised in the 1990's? The weather seems to have become more Nordic than Spainish? :(

    Our climate is moderated by the Gulf Stream. It is not an unreasonable hypothesis that climate change might affect this system, and that the effects of this on our climate would be significant.

    Look at the countries at the same latitude. Canada and the southern bits of Scandinavia.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @Marches and @Anorak

    To a large degree yes but still it smacks of antediluvian attitudes towards women as if their existence derives solely from their marriage.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    JackW said:

    @Marches and @Anorak

    To a large degree yes but still it smacks of antediluvian attitudes towards women as if their existence derives solely from their marriage.

    Which in her case it clearly does.

    Denis Thatcher was afflicted in the same way.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,962

    Polruan said:

    There's an unusual lack of comment from the usual plane geeks (not an insult; I include myself) about the BA762 emergency landing at Heathrow this morning. Everyone fine, thankfully, other than the birds that appear to have been shredded and lightly fricassed in engine 2.

    Anyway, it's a good opportunity to post a link to this masterpiece

    http://radans.net/jens/planestory.html

    In my defence, I was working. :-)

    It'll be interesting to see what happened to the plane - if it was a bird strike (there seems to be some doubt on the radio). But thank goodness everyone was okay.

    It throw up yet more questions about the capacity problems at Heathrow, and how best to fix them. One thing is for certain: the current situation cannot continue forever.

    Oh, and that website's brilliant.
    Following up my own post: looking at the video which shows the engine covers missing in flight, and the fact that BA have suspended all short-haul flights, I'm wondering if it might be a maintenance issue?

    I wonder where the engine covers landed?

    (It could still be a bird strike; I might inexpertly be reading too much into the images).
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667
    GIN1138 said:

    So as I sit here on 24th May theres rain lashing down on the window, a howling north-easterly gale and the temperature's just 5C.

    Whatever happened to the Mediterranean Climate we were promised in the 1990's? The weather seems to have become more Nordic than Spainish? :(

    In Spain it was snowing last week up where i used to live. So, in fact, you could say our weather i sbetter than theirs!

    http://www.lavanguardia.com/vida/20130515/54373549164/nieve-cadenas-mayo-catalunya.html


  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,543

    Socrates said:

    That they are inflicting protectionist restrictions on the UK, against the best interests of our country.

    Presumably it is literally impossible for the EU to expel any country from membership, right?

    What would actually happen in EU terms if, say, Lithuania elected a fascist government that then reintroduced the death penalty? What's the actual mechanism for reversing that law or removing that government, anyone know?
    There is a trial run with Hungary at the moment, since the EU strongly disagrees with some of the things they've been doing in restricting media freedom. a first stage is that they lose "cohesion funding". That's quite a big deal in itself, but I believe that ultimately a position of total defiance would lead to membership suspension.

    See an older link:
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304450004577279322368129522.html
    and
    the latest info I can see:
    http://www.eubusiness.com/news-eu/hungary-politics.nxz
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    Anorak said:

    Given their inability to reverse the constitutional changes in Hungary, they'll be able to do sweet FA apart from some huffing and puffing.

    I suppose what I'm musing on is at what point a country could do something so beyond the pale that the EU would decide they had to be expelled. What about one that flouted EU directives, didn't implement them, and didn't pay its subs? Actually, scratch that - hardly anyone pays in anyway so almost nobody has subs they could stop paying.

    My suspicion is that a militant fascist government would be a HAL9000 paranoid fugue moment for the EU. Expelling a country would require it to return sovereignty to a member and to get smaller. This is in precise conflict with its 50-year agenda of absorbing member states' sovereignty and getting bigger.

    Would the EU tolerate a fascist government if the alternative were to get smaller? I think it would.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708


    Presumably it is literally impossible for the EU to expel any country from membership, right?

    What would actually happen in EU terms if, say, Lithuania elected a fascist government that then reintroduced the death penalty? What's the actual mechanism for reversing that law or removing that government, anyone know?

    The EU doesn't have a mechanism for expelling a member state, but it could suspend voting rights by unanimity of everyone except the country concerned.

    I suppose in practice everyone would also be able to gang up on the offending member state in QMV decisions and be really mean to them until they agreed to leave of their own accord. A mechanism for leaving of your own accord was added in Lisbon.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,300
    edited May 2013

    GIN1138 said:

    So as I sit here on 24th May theres rain lashing down on the window, a howling north-easterly gale and the temperature's just 5C.

    Whatever happened to the Mediterranean Climate we were promised in the 1990's? The weather seems to have become more Nordic than Spainish? :(

    Our climate is moderated by the Gulf Stream. It is not an unreasonable hypothesis that climate change might affect this system, and that the effects of this on our climate would be significant.

    Look at the countries at the same latitude. Canada and the southern bits of Scandinavia.
    But the original idea (when it was called "Global Warming") was that the jet stream would be shunted north and the sub-tropical high pressure from the Azores would expand to deliver us consistently hot summers and mild, stormy winters.

    The Med was supposed to become an arid desert like north Africa, while northern Europe would become like the Med.

    "Climate Change" seems to be something else that covers pretty much any weather event and pattern?


  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939

    The EU doesn't have a mechanism for expelling a member state, but it could suspend voting rights by unanimity of everyone except the country concerned.

    So presumably you could become a non-member in practice by simply doing whatever your electors decided. You could close your borders, for example.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Indeed, Mr. Gin. Those who believe in global warming claimed we'd have Mediterranean type weather, and are now claiming exactly the same cause for droughts, floods, prolonged cold winters etc etc.

    One wonders what sort of weather is not covered by global warming (now handily renamed 'climate change', which rather ignores the fact that the UK's climate, like the world's, has always changed naturally).
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708


    Would the EU tolerate a fascist government if the alternative were to get smaller? I think it would.

    When it comes to constitutional issues like this (as opposed to olive oil regulation or whatever) the EU is basically a collection of national governments, rather than an organization with a mind of its own. The Commission can prod it this way or that, but it's basically up to 28 Prime Ministers to decide what to do. So it would depend what their voters thought.

    If you had a bunch of fairly liberal countries and one renegade fascist country you'd think there would be votes in taking a hard line. But I suppose that if one country has turned the fascism dial up to eleven it's most likely part of a continent-wide move that also has some other countries at 7, 8 and 9, and it wouldn't take much of a blocking minority to frustrate effective action.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    The EU doesn't have a mechanism for expelling a member state, but it could suspend voting rights by unanimity of everyone except the country concerned.

    So presumably you could become a non-member in practice by simply doing whatever your electors decided. You could close your borders, for example.

    Well, if you actually wanted to become a non-member you'd just go ahead and leave...
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited May 2013

    The EU doesn't have a mechanism for expelling a member state, but it could suspend voting rights by unanimity of everyone except the country concerned.

    So presumably you could become a non-member in practice by simply doing whatever your electors decided. You could close your borders, for example.

    I wonder how the EU would react to a coup within a member country, resulting in military rule, or one with no sign of democracy re-emerging? Military intervention would be political dynamite, especially if the coup was [relatively] peaceful. Sanctions have proved to be weak-sauce and hurt the population much more than the regime.

    Would it make a difference if the coup removed an unsavory regime (e.g. Fidesz in Hungary, or the aforementioned fascist regime elsewhere)? Who gets to decide what 'unsavory' is?
  • Anorak said:

    The EU doesn't have a mechanism for expelling a member state, but it could suspend voting rights by unanimity of everyone except the country concerned.

    So presumably you could become a non-member in practice by simply doing whatever your electors decided. You could close your borders, for example.

    Who gets to decide what 'unsavory' is?
    Realpolitik would probably decide

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    I cant believe this BBC bias story hasnt been mentioned yet:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-22652433
  • BoredInParisBoredInParis Posts: 46
    edited May 2013
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So as I sit here on 24th May theres rain lashing down on the window, a howling north-easterly gale and the temperature's just 5C.

    Whatever happened to the Mediterranean Climate we were promised in the 1990's? The weather seems to have become more Nordic than Spainish? :(

    Our climate is moderated by the Gulf Stream. It is not an unreasonable hypothesis that climate change might affect this system, and that the effects of this on our climate would be significant.

    Look at the countries at the same latitude. Canada and the southern bits of Scandinavia.
    But the original idea (when it was called "Global Warming") was that the jet stream would be shunted north and the sub-tropical high pressure from the Azores would expand to deliver us consistently hot summers and mild, stormy winters.

    The Med was supposed to become an arid desert like north Africa, while northern Europe would become like the Med.

    "Climate Change" seems to be something else that covers pretty much any weather event and pattern?


    I'm just trying to think it through logically. Like a scientist perhaps should.

    I don't disagree with the cynicism, btw.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    GIN1138 said:


    "Climate Change" seems to be something else that covers pretty much any weather event and pattern?

    The basic hypothesis is that the planet (air and sea combined) will get warmer. Once you've proved the basic physics, which you can do with a coke bottle, you figure out whether it's happening or not in the actual planet by seeing whether the planet gets warmer or not.

    What's going to happen locally in any particular place is crazy hard, because you've got all kinds of complex systems that interact with each other, so if you get one bit a little bit wrong it can have knock-on effects that make another bit even wronger.

    If it was easy to figure out all the details there might actually be less to worry about, because if the worst came to the worst we could geo-engineer our way out of it.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,543
    Anorak said:

    The EU doesn't have a mechanism for expelling a member state, but it could suspend voting rights by unanimity of everyone except the country concerned.

    So presumably you could become a non-member in practice by simply doing whatever your electors decided. You could close your borders, for example.

    I wonder how the EU would react to a coup within a member country, resulting in military rule, or one with no sign of democracy re-emerging? Military intervention would be political dynamite, especially if the coup was [relatively] peaceful. Sanctions have proved to be weak-sauce and hurt the population much more than the regime.

    Would it make a difference if the coup removed an unsavory regime (e.g. Fidesz in Hungary, or the aforementioned fascist regime elsewhere)? Who gets to decide what 'unsavory' is?
    This was vaguely discussed at one point in the context of Greece. But it's pretty straightforward really - EU membership carries a bunch of legal obligations (not directly related to whether people think you unsavory) including respecting human rights, and if one breaches them you can get compensation required to be paid to the victims and other penalties.

    If you systematically refuse to play ball in any way then de facto suspension will follow, and of course that also means that the other countries can impose trade barriers and you'd then look silly trying to complain that your EU rights had been violated. You'd be better off just using the Lisbon procedure to leave voluntarily and negotiate trade etc. on your way out. The idea that losing a country is anathema isn't one I've heard - that'[s why Lisbon provided for it.

    There isn't any scope for intervening militarily (no EU military forces, for a start), though if you imagine a new Hitler it's possible that other countries would decide to intervene - but that wouldn't be an EU action.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited May 2013
    Why, once again, a fall in student immigration is good

    The reality is that bogus students are being prevented from studying in the UK – something we should all celebrate. Meanwhile, university applications are up 5 per cent and work visas (Tier 2) are also up 7 per cent. The government’s progress is something to be celebrated – net migration is coming down without any significant damage to business or higher education. There remains much more to be done but let us offer at least two cheers for the government’s considerable achievements so far.


    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/05/why-once-again-a-fall-in-student-immigration-is-good/
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,300
    edited May 2013

    GIN1138 said:


    "Climate Change" seems to be something else that covers pretty much any weather event and pattern?

    The basic hypothesis is that the planet (air and sea combined) will get warmer. Once you've proved the basic physics, which you can do with a coke bottle, you figure out whether it's happening or not in the actual planet by seeing whether the planet gets warmer or not.

    What's going to happen locally in any particular place is crazy hard, because you've got all kinds of complex systems that interact with each other, so if you get one bit a little bit wrong it can have knock-on effects that make another bit even wronger.

    If it was easy to figure out all the details there might actually be less to worry about, because if the worst came to the worst we could geo-engineer our way out of it.
    Well, the expansion of the "sub-tropical belts" and the resulting northwards movement of the jet stream is hardly a "local" effect. It's key to the whole thing.

    If anything I would say the past ten years have probably seen the sub-tropical belts and the jets stream shift a little bit south of their position in the 1990's. That shouldn't be happening, surely?

  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220

    Once you've proved the basic physics, which you can do with a coke bottle

    If you think you can "prove" the basic physics of planetary atmospherics with "a coke bottle" then you have already lost all arguments
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Afternoon all.

    Time for a little ECB Qualitative Teasing.

    Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank gave a speech yesterday to a conference organised by the City of London Corporation. The theme of the conference was "The Future of Europe in the Global Economy".

    Two statements made during the speech stand out. His opening conciliatory but entirely meaningless line:

    Europe needs a more European UK as much as the UK needs a more British Europe

    And his final conclusion:

    The answer to the crisis has not been less Europe, but more Europe

    For those wondering whether there was any substance in between, contemplate this vision of EU utopia:

    “A more stable union will be one where financial contagion will have disappeared, where business for the financial centres will vastly increase, where financial market integration will resume.”

    Well, yes, Sr. Draghi, but how about telling us how we will get there.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Well, yes, Sr. Draghi, but how about telling us how we will get there.

    Before senior Draghi tells how we get there, he should first tell us how we should stop going in the opposite direction....
  • ProfessorDaveyProfessorDavey Posts: 64
    edited May 2013
    tim said:

    @Neil

    Nice destruction of Paisley by Maajid Nawaz

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mFO8UGQ78Eg&feature=youtu.be

    I'd not really seen much of Paisley Jn before last night but he really is an odious individual. I thought Tatchel was hugely restrained in his comments. I think if I'd had someone next to me coming out with such vile bigoted claptrap and then effectively telling me who I should be marrying I'd have smacked him.

    Nawaz' put down was masterful and Paisley's body language throughout showed his fury at anyone having the temerity to challenge his views - even having a go at one of the audience members who'd simply asked him a question. Nasty piece of work, but as Nawaz indicated, yesterday's man.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Has the BBC mentioned that global warming flat-lined in 1998 yet? If the EU has given up on carbon suicide that just leaves the UK but political class here won't dare say anything till the BBC finally gives in.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,628
    edited May 2013

    GIN1138 said:


    "Climate Change" seems to be something else that covers pretty much any weather event and pattern?

    The basic hypothesis is that the planet (air and sea combined) will get warmer. Once you've proved the basic physics, which you can do with a coke bottle, you figure out whether it's happening or not in the actual planet by seeing whether the planet gets warmer or not.

    What's going to happen locally in any particular place is crazy hard, because you've got all kinds of complex systems that interact with each other, so if you get one bit a little bit wrong it can have knock-on effects that make another bit even wronger.

    If it was easy to figure out all the details there might actually be less to worry about, because if the worst came to the worst we could geo-engineer our way out of it.
    The trouble with this is that whilst the basic physics you refer to is of course correct, it is not actually the main foundation of the hypothesis surrounding the concerns about catastrophic AGW. If the planet reacted as a simple coke bottle then actually the warming we would see would not be problematic. The whole basis of the CAGW hypothesis is that the feedback mechanisms will magnify the effects of any slight warming caused by increased CO2 and so will lead to far larger temperature increases than we would otherwise expect. The counter argument is that in fact these feedback mechanisms act to reduce the temperature impact (something along the lines of a refined Gaia Principle) and so any warming will be very small or non existent to the extent it will be masked by natural processes.

    It is at this point that these models then have to be subjected to the real life data of the planet and what it is doing. That in itself is of course hugely difficult because of the problems with taking thousands of local readings and using them to create an overall picture of warming or cooling.

    But anyone who tells you (and I am not saying this is what you were saying Edmund) that "it is all simple, just look at the lab experiments", clearly doesn't understand the basics of climate science.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,441

    tim said:

    @Neil

    Nice destruction of Paisley by Maajid Nawaz

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mFO8UGQ78Eg&feature=youtu.be

    I'd not really seen much of Paisley Jn before last night but he really is an odious individual. I thought Tatchel was hugely restrained in his comments. I think if I'd had someone next to me coming out with such vile bigoted claptrap and then effectively telling me who I should be marrying I'd have smacked him.

    Nawaz' put down was masterful and Paisley's body language throughout showed his fury at anyone having the temerity to challenge his views - even having a go at one of the audience members who'd simply asked him a question. Nasty piece of work, but as Nawaz indicated, yesterday's man.
    " I'd have smacked him."

    Tut tut, Northern Ireland has moved on from political violence, really they wouldn't want your kind of eighteenth century mentality.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795

    Why, once again, a fall in student immigration is good

    The reality is that bogus students are being prevented from studying in the UK – something we should all celebrate. Meanwhile, university applications are up 5 per cent and work visas (Tier 2) are also up 7 per cent. The government’s progress is something to be celebrated – net migration is coming down without any significant damage to business or higher education. There remains much more to be done but let us offer at least two cheers for the government’s considerable achievements so far.


    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/05/why-once-again-a-fall-in-student-immigration-is-good/

    Why should we "celebrate" bogus students being denied entry to the UK?
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939

    If you systematically refuse to play ball in any way then de facto suspension will follow, and of course that also means that the other countries can impose trade barriers....The idea that losing a country is anathema isn't one I've heard - that's why Lisbon provided for it.

    What I am wondering, Nick, is whether you could de facto leave by ignoring all the rules, without actually doing anything else about it. You'd then be either

    1/ a member in such poor standing that you're not member, or
    2/ expelled.

    I take your point about Article 50 of Lisbon. I guess what I am thinking is that any invocation of that article would probably be opposed by some sort of process pleading.

    Eg if a government invoked it, as a negotiating tactic for example, wouldn't the EU argue that they hadn't any mandate to do so? If they had one, in the shape of a referendum result, wouldn't they be required to keep repeating the referendum until the result changed?

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    BenM said:

    Why, once again, a fall in student immigration is good

    The reality is that bogus students are being prevented from studying in the UK – something we should all celebrate. Meanwhile, university applications are up 5 per cent and work visas (Tier 2) are also up 7 per cent. The government’s progress is something to be celebrated – net migration is coming down without any significant damage to business or higher education. There remains much more to be done but let us offer at least two cheers for the government’s considerable achievements so far.


    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/05/why-once-again-a-fall-in-student-immigration-is-good/

    Why should we "celebrate" bogus students being denied entry to the UK?
    Everything connected to the black economy for a start.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    MrJones said:

    BenM said:

    Why, once again, a fall in student immigration is good

    The reality is that bogus students are being prevented from studying in the UK – something we should all celebrate. Meanwhile, university applications are up 5 per cent and work visas (Tier 2) are also up 7 per cent. The government’s progress is something to be celebrated – net migration is coming down without any significant damage to business or higher education. There remains much more to be done but let us offer at least two cheers for the government’s considerable achievements so far.


    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/05/why-once-again-a-fall-in-student-immigration-is-good/

    Why should we "celebrate" bogus students being denied entry to the UK?
    Everything connected to the black economy for a start.
    Can the guys not now get in by marrying British men?

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,628

    If you systematically refuse to play ball in any way then de facto suspension will follow, and of course that also means that the other countries can impose trade barriers....The idea that losing a country is anathema isn't one I've heard - that's why Lisbon provided for it.

    What I am wondering, Nick, is whether you could de facto leave by ignoring all the rules, without actually doing anything else about it. You'd then be either

    1/ a member in such poor standing that you're not member, or
    2/ expelled.

    I take your point about Article 50 of Lisbon. I guess what I am thinking is that any invocation of that article would probably be opposed by some sort of process pleading.

    Eg if a government invoked it, as a negotiating tactic for example, wouldn't the EU argue that they hadn't any mandate to do so? If they had one, in the shape of a referendum result, wouldn't they be required to keep repeating the referendum until the result changed?

    I have recently been having a long discussion about this with Dr Richard North. He and I both agree that Article 50 is really the only legal way to proceed and remain in accordance with the Vienna Convention. Unfortunately there are a lot of headbangers in the BOO side who seem to think simply tearing up our treaty agreements would be fine. They really are not giving any thought to what this would mean in terms of trade and our relationship with the rest of the EU.

    A few days ago in response to our discussions about the status of the UK in the EEA after leaving the EU (formally through invoking article 50) Dr North wrote to the Deputy Secretary-General of EFTA to ask for his opinion on the issue. I will let you know what he says when we hear back.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    MrJones said:

    BenM said:

    Why, once again, a fall in student immigration is good

    The reality is that bogus students are being prevented from studying in the UK – something we should all celebrate. Meanwhile, university applications are up 5 per cent and work visas (Tier 2) are also up 7 per cent. The government’s progress is something to be celebrated – net migration is coming down without any significant damage to business or higher education. There remains much more to be done but let us offer at least two cheers for the government’s considerable achievements so far.


    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/05/why-once-again-a-fall-in-student-immigration-is-good/

    Why should we "celebrate" bogus students being denied entry to the UK?
    Everything connected to the black economy for a start.
    Can the guys not now get in by marrying British men?

    Ah, no wonder the sudden drive for gay marriage!
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    edited May 2013

    GIN1138 said:


    "Climate Change" seems to be something else that covers pretty much any weather event and pattern?


    The whole basis of the CAGW hypothesis is that the feedback mechanisms will magnify the effects of any slight warming caused by increased CO2 and so will lead to far larger temperature increases than we would otherwise expect. The counter argument is that in fact these feedback mechanisms act to reduce the temperature impact (something along the lines of a refined Gaia Principle) and so any warming will be very small or non existent to the extent it will be masked by natural processes.

    It is at this point that these models then have to be subjected to the real life data of the planet and what it is doing.

    And worth noting here that the models have been pretty robust thus far.

    There is no evidence that the predictions in them are totally wrong at all.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,397

    GIN1138 said:


    "Climate Change" seems to be something else that covers pretty much any weather event and pattern?

    The basic hypothesis is that the planet (air and sea combined) will get warmer. Once you've proved the basic physics, which you can do with a coke bottle, you figure out whether it's happening or not in the actual planet by seeing whether the planet gets warmer or not.

    What's going to happen locally in any particular place is crazy hard, because you've got all kinds of complex systems that interact with each other, so if you get one bit a little bit wrong it can have knock-on effects that make another bit even wronger.

    If it was easy to figure out all the details there might actually be less to worry about, because if the worst came to the worst we could geo-engineer our way out of it.
    The trouble with this is that whilst the basic physics you refer to is of course correct, it is not actually the main foundation of the hypothesis surrounding the concerns about catastrophic AGW. If the planet reacted as a simple coke bottle then actually the warming we would see would not be problematic. The whole basis of the CAGW hypothesis is that the feedback mechanisms will magnify the effects of any slight warming caused by increased CO2 and so will lead to far larger temperature increases than we would otherwise expect. The counter argument is that in fact these feedback mechanisms act to reduce the temperature impact (something along the lines of a refined Gaia Principle) and so any warming will be very small or non existent to the extent it will be masked by natural processes.

    It is at this point that these models then have to be subjected to the real life data of the planet and what it is doing. That in itself is of course hugely difficult because of the problems with taking thousands of local readings and using them to create an overall picture of warming or cooling.

    But anyone who tells you (and I am not saying this is what you were saying Edmund) that "it is all simple, just look at the lab experiments", clearly doesn't understand the basics of climate science.
    Yeah, that's pretty much the way I read it, Richard, but with the important caveat that the time scale for knowing for sure whether AGW is really dangerous is so long that we really ought to assume that it is and start doing something about it now.

    If it turns out the dangers were exaggerated, little will have been lost. Other way round would be catastrophic.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,441
    Oops, BBC writes off £100m project.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-22651126
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,243
    edited May 2013
    Mr Jones,

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Global_Temperature_Anomaly_1880-2012.svg is this chart essentially your argument ?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    BenM said:

    Why, once again, a fall in student immigration is good

    The reality is that bogus students are being prevented from studying in the UK – something we should all celebrate. Meanwhile, university applications are up 5 per cent and work visas (Tier 2) are also up 7 per cent. The government’s progress is something to be celebrated – net migration is coming down without any significant damage to business or higher education. There remains much more to be done but let us offer at least two cheers for the government’s considerable achievements so far.


    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/05/why-once-again-a-fall-in-student-immigration-is-good/

    Why should we "celebrate" bogus students being denied entry to the UK?
    It's just lovely to point out how wrong labour and it's supporters were.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    lucymanning RAF typhoon planes from Coningsby escorting a Pakistani International passenger plane to Stansted. Diverted from Manchester.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    BBC: RAF jets launched to investigate unexpected diversion of Pakistan passenger plane from Manchester to Stansted
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    lucymanning Flight tracker showing the plane diverted from Manchester to Stansted by RAF planes
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,628
    edited May 2013
    BenM said:

    GIN1138 said:


    "Climate Change" seems to be something else that covers pretty much any weather event and pattern?


    The whole basis of the CAGW hypothesis is that the feedback mechanisms will magnify the effects of any slight warming caused by increased CO2 and so will lead to far larger temperature increases than we would otherwise expect. The counter argument is that in fact these feedback mechanisms act to reduce the temperature impact (something along the lines of a refined Gaia Principle) and so any warming will be very small or non existent to the extent it will be masked by natural processes.

    It is at this point that these models then have to be subjected to the real life data of the planet and what it is doing.

    And worth noting here that the models have been pretty robust thus far.

    There is no evidence that the predictions in them are totally wrong at all.
    Actually no, its worth noting that the models have not been robust at all when used in a predictive sense. They matched the actual measurements very well when used to back model pre- the mid 1990s but since then have diverged rapidly from the recorded measurements to the extent that many of the peer reviewed papers being released in the last year - including a number by former or current IPCC members - are now massively reducing the likely temperature rise.

    The current global temperatures lie below even the lowest estimates of any of the IPCC models.
  • Gerry_ManderGerry_Mander Posts: 621


    If it turns out the dangers were exaggerated, little will have been lost. Other way round would be catastrophic.

    Little would have been lost. Really? So, if we encouranged the BRIC countries to shut down their plans and then said, "Sorry guys", it would have been little?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    chrisshipitv Two RAF Typhoon jets are escorting a passenger plane from Pakistan to Stansted airport - the UK's designated counter terrorism airport
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795

    BenM said:

    Why, once again, a fall in student immigration is good

    The reality is that bogus students are being prevented from studying in the UK – something we should all celebrate. Meanwhile, university applications are up 5 per cent and work visas (Tier 2) are also up 7 per cent. The government’s progress is something to be celebrated – net migration is coming down without any significant damage to business or higher education. There remains much more to be done but let us offer at least two cheers for the government’s considerable achievements so far.


    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/05/why-once-again-a-fall-in-student-immigration-is-good/

    Why should we "celebrate" bogus students being denied entry to the UK?
    It's just lovely to point out how wrong labour and it's supporters were.

    "Wrong" about what?

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    chrisshipitv Latest on diverted aircraft on which Essex Police confirms there has been "an incident". Here: itv.co/12Sehjg
  • NextNext Posts: 826

    GIN1138 said:


    "Climate Change" seems to be something else that covers pretty much any weather event and pattern?

    The basic hypothesis is that the planet (air and sea combined) will get warmer. Once you've proved the basic physics, which you can do with a coke bottle, you figure out whether it's happening or not in the actual planet by seeing whether the planet gets warmer or not.

    What's going to happen locally in any particular place is crazy hard, because you've got all kinds of complex systems that interact with each other, so if you get one bit a little bit wrong it can have knock-on effects that make another bit even wronger.

    If it was easy to figure out all the details there might actually be less to worry about, because if the worst came to the worst we could geo-engineer our way out of it.
    The trouble with this is that whilst the basic physics you refer to is of course correct, it is not actually the main foundation of the hypothesis surrounding the concerns about catastrophic AGW. If the planet reacted as a simple coke bottle then actually the warming we would see would not be problematic. The whole basis of the CAGW hypothesis is that the feedback mechanisms will magnify the effects of any slight warming caused by increased CO2 and so will lead to far larger temperature increases than we would otherwise expect. The counter argument is that in fact these feedback mechanisms act to reduce the temperature impact (something along the lines of a refined Gaia Principle) and so any warming will be very small or non existent to the extent it will be masked by natural processes.

    It is at this point that these models then have to be subjected to the real life data of the planet and what it is doing. That in itself is of course hugely difficult because of the problems with taking thousands of local readings and using them to create an overall picture of warming or cooling.

    But anyone who tells you (and I am not saying this is what you were saying Edmund) that "it is all simple, just look at the lab experiments", clearly doesn't understand the basics of climate science.
    Yeah, that's pretty much the way I read it, Richard, but with the important caveat that the time scale for knowing for sure whether AGW is really dangerous is so long that we really ought to assume that it is and start doing something about it now.

    If it turns out the dangers were exaggerated, little will have been lost. Other way round would be catastrophic.
    Little?

    What about the thousands of old people who die because they cannot afford to heat their homes - made worse because of co2 taxes?

    What about industry lost to China as we needlessly cripple our own?

    What about the huge waste of diverting resources that might have been spent on creating solutions to potential problems another way?

    If you want to believe in hockey-stick graphs (shown to have been pre-programmed into the models), then believe away. Just don't take the rest of us down with you.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    BenM said:

    BenM said:

    Why, once again, a fall in student immigration is good

    The reality is that bogus students are being prevented from studying in the UK – something we should all celebrate. Meanwhile, university applications are up 5 per cent and work visas (Tier 2) are also up 7 per cent. The government’s progress is something to be celebrated – net migration is coming down without any significant damage to business or higher education. There remains much more to be done but let us offer at least two cheers for the government’s considerable achievements so far.


    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/05/why-once-again-a-fall-in-student-immigration-is-good/

    Why should we "celebrate" bogus students being denied entry to the UK?
    It's just lovely to point out how wrong labour and it's supporters were.

    "Wrong" about what?

    Just wrong, Ben.

    There is no need to elaborate.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758


    Meanwhile, university applications are up 5 per cent ... net migration is coming down without any significant damage to business or higher education.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/05/why-once-again-a-fall-in-student-immigration-is-good/

    That can't be right!

    When I posted the same information based on what I see at the university I'm involved with, tim insisted it was an anecdote and therefore worthless.

    Surely now it is statistics he will apologise?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    BenM said:

    GIN1138 said:


    "Climate Change" seems to be something else that covers pretty much any weather event and pattern?


    The whole basis of the CAGW hypothesis is that the feedback mechanisms will magnify the effects of any slight warming caused by increased CO2 and so will lead to far larger temperature increases than we would otherwise expect. The counter argument is that in fact these feedback mechanisms act to reduce the temperature impact (something along the lines of a refined Gaia Principle) and so any warming will be very small or non existent to the extent it will be masked by natural processes.

    It is at this point that these models then have to be subjected to the real life data of the planet and what it is doing.

    And worth noting here that the models have been pretty robust thus far.

    There is no evidence that the predictions in them are totally wrong at all.
    Which model are you talking about? I generally think that AGW is happening, but the inaccuracy of the models so far has been one of the strongest reasons for doubting.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2013
    It seems they have done a Lab-LD-UKIP-Green-Ind coalition in Norfolk!!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,243
    edited May 2013
    Personally I think we need more data points to decide what to do, given we are technically in an interglacial period within an ice age shutting down CO2 emmissions could concievably allow the world to run its natural course into a glacial (Another ice age). This would affect the world just as much as a runaway greenhouse would.

    If one thinks its better to have a natural process over an unnatural, then take a look around - humans have changed the landscape of the land of the earth beyond all recognition. Our effect on long term temperature processes (climate) ? Much harder to evaluate, given we have only in the last fraction of a millisecond (Of the Earth's time) become 'industrialised'. Accuratish data from the last hundred years really isn't enough of a set.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    The trouble with this is that whilst the basic physics you refer to is of course correct, it is not actually the main foundation of the hypothesis surrounding the concerns about catastrophic AGW. If the planet reacted as a simple coke bottle then actually the warming we would see would not be problematic. The whole basis of the CAGW hypothesis is that the feedback mechanisms will magnify the effects of any slight warming caused by increased CO2 and so will lead to far larger temperature increases than we would otherwise expect.

    Do you have anything you can link me to showing that the mainline forecasts for future temperature increases are more down to feedback effects than the direct effect?

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    It seems they have done a Lab-LD-UKIP-Green-Ind coalition in Norfolk!!

    As goes Norfolk, so goes Britain.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,628

    It seems they have done a Lab-LD-UKIP-Green-Ind coalition in Norfolk!!

    LOL. Not sure how long that will last :-)
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 993
    edited May 2013

    chrisshipitv Two RAF Typhoon jets are escorting a passenger plane from Pakistan to Stansted airport - the UK's designated counter terrorism airport

    The escorts will have to refuel at least twice!

    Sorry - now see they are only going from Lincolnshire to Stansted!

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    It's just a 1 year deal in Norfolk while they go back to committe system.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    LOL. Not sure how long that will last :-)

    We're on the same side now, Richard!!! ;)
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    tim said:

    @Neil

    Nice destruction of Paisley by Maajid Nawaz

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mFO8UGQ78Eg&feature=youtu.be

    I'd not really seen much of Paisley Jn before last night but he really is an odious individual. I thought Tatchel was hugely restrained in his comments. I think if I'd had someone next to me coming out with such vile bigoted claptrap and then effectively telling me who I should be marrying I'd have smacked him.

    Nawaz' put down was masterful and Paisley's body language throughout showed his fury at anyone having the temerity to challenge his views - even having a go at one of the audience members who'd simply asked him a question. Nasty piece of work, but as Nawaz indicated, yesterday's man.
    The Quilliam Foundation do seem like a really smart bunch of guys and really point to a positive democratic future for Islam. Much better than people like the MCB.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    UKIP Welsh MEP John Bufton announces retirement after 1 term. "Personal reasons" cited as the reason
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,243

    It seems they have done a Lab-LD-UKIP-Green-Ind coalition in Norfolk!!

    LOL. Not sure how long that will last :-)
    Is that the 'we hate Cameron' alliance, or is that the opposition ;) ?
This discussion has been closed.