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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB moves to its best YouGov position for seven weeks
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB moves to its best YouGov position for seven weeks
The latest YouGov daily poll is out and sees the Tories still in the doldrums below the 30 mark. The comparisons in the chart above are with a week ago which was before the reported “swivel eyed loons” that a senior CON figure was said to have made about party activists.
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A few years ago, some Muslim extremists were demonstrating with slogans like "Behead those who insult Islam". Energy prices were going up by more than inflation.
The Daily Telegraph's Matt, with his usual brilliance, did a cartoon of a middle-aged suburban couple demonstrating outside their house with a placard that said "Behead meter-readers".
Bad sign for both.
a bit previous surely Ben? These are great snapshots of the current mood but I wouldn't read anything 2015-ish into them.
Cons: in a muddle & divided over GM, Europe, etc
LD: Just _what_ is NC up to
UKIP: ok we are beginning to realise NOTA is not a viable way to run the country
which leaves....
Lab
It'll be different next week as these issue filter down.
The increased Labour share is bad news for Ed because it will lead to increased scrutiny of Ed, and Ed is crap, so this increased scrutiny will reduce the Labour share
The increased Lib Dem share is bad news for Ed because it shows that the centre-left vote is once again beginning to split between Labour and the Lib Dems, probably because Ed is crap, and will make it harder for Labour to take key marginals
The decreased UKIP share is bad news for Ed because it shows that the appeal of NOTA is waning, and once voters return to the mainstream parties, because Ed is crap, they will return to Lib Dems or Conservatives
The decreased Conservative share is bad news for Ed because it shows that voters are turned off by Cameron not being tough enough on Europe/being too socially liberal, both of which are flaws which Ed (who, it may be said, is crap) shares in superabundance and therefore will, in time, suffer from the same drop in vote share.
See? It's easy to avoid choking on the cornflakes and churn out another one, if not four, articles off the back of that poll.
It's worth remembering that these polls have a lot of statistical noise. Even given zero real change the numbers bobble about.
Ukip could easily have made an inflammatory comment about the murder of the soldier if they had desired a cheap opinion poll hit, but did the right thing in keeping schtum.
People raise an eyebrow at the Telegraph refusing comments on this case and the "We need To Talk About Islam" piece, but debate about the cause of this growing divide is banned in many places.
The gruesome internals should however give Tories pause for thought....
I'm sure there's no real relevance... a comedian promising a referendum that far out won't be taken seriously.
LoL.
Major change from last few polls is the London Subsample;
e.g Yesterday: Con 31; LAB 35; LD 14; UKIP 17
Today: Con 28: LAB 47; LD 10; UKIP 10.
Edited extra bit: and when I say 'watch' I of course mean 'listen to'.
Well down to work:
HOW FALSE POLLS SEEM TO BE
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/8lvxse4f91/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-230513.pdf
The latest YOUGOV poll is out and now it shows a 13% lead for LABOUR
Latest YouGov / The Sun results 23rd May - CON 29%, LAB 42%, LD 11%, UKIP 13%; APP -34 are the figures.
But of course delve deeper and you find the cause. It seems that the older you get the less likely you are to vote labour, so what is the best way to skew a poll. Ask more young people how they are likely to vote. In the past polling the section for 18-24 has been negligible and they have had to star it saying that not enough had been polled to make it credible.
This time they have asked more than 200 from this group who they would vote for and of course it skews the figures.
Labour can pronounce a huge lead.
If this was the case then the May elections would have been much different but then again the pollsters or Labour for that matter wouldn't want that it doesn't make the sort of press which they want.
I wish YOUGOV would be restricted to a weekly or fortnightly poll like most other pollsters they might just get the same results as them as well then.
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And the Bolsover result for the Parish Council. And Labour lost it.
Whitwell Parish Council - Thursday 10th January 2013
The election for the vacancy on Whitwell Parish Council has taken place and the results are below. The total electrorate is 3.145 and the turnout was 14.24%.
Name of Candidate Description (if any) Number of Votes
AUSTIN, Karl Peter Hill 267
BURDETT, Simon Charles The Labour Party 179
As we await the result from yesterdays by election result for the district council I found this and wondered if it would give an indication to how the District council result may have gone as well.
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Oooh! My arm feels better.
A positive sign for the reds.
LOL
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-22650393
If Scotland becomes independent they want a separate coronation in Scotland. Credit to Sturgeon for (earlier) dismissing such a thing.
It may be that the Telegraph have been made especially the targets of extremist rants; or it may be that they are unusually nervous. They were closed for comments for a long time after Margaret Thatcher died.
There was a storm of protest on the Telegraph site after SeanT's piece on Nick Griffin. I'm glad he explained himself here, and think the Telegraph owe him a profuse apology and space to make himself clear, though it may be too late for that now.
I see that our police are being dilligent in keeping Twitter fit for public consumption: http://news.sky.com/story/1095026/woolwich-murder-offensive-tweets-arrests
All other tabs in my browser are working fine; am I the only person seeing this? It's making the site unusable.
I think it may be ad-related.
Yougov ( as always ) under sampled 18-24 year olds and had to weight the results up . They should have polled 202 and only sampled 65 . UKIp/Other IDers were as always grossly over sampled , they should have sampled 22 but actually sampled 140 . I will leave it to the conspiracy theorists as to whether this constant over sampling is down to UKIP supporters trying to rig Yougov poll samples .
The actual result of yesterday's by election was Residents gain from Green Residents 347 Labour 256
Disaster looming. There are only 300 Austin Allegros left in the UK !
http://www.birminghampost.net/
Go take a long walk off a short pier.
Mr. Jessop, no time-related issue for me. On a PC, using Firefox. The ads I've got are a Vauxhall/fuel one and huitsuite.
Sorry to have upset your breakfast. I'm in a conciliatory mood today.
I would be fascinated to hear how you think anyone could rig these polls - outside of the people running them which is an utterly fanciful suggestion.
Given the front-cover of "t'Economist" OGH chooses instead to try to draw some meaningless conclusion from YouGov; a pollster known for it's fluctuations (no doubt due to the regularity of it's polling). Maybe he should run a competition: "Given the last two polls, predict the outcome of the next YouGov daily poll. The prize will be a week's unlimited editing of every-other post by Wee-Timmy"...?
Very little betting information can be gleaned from a single YouGov poll (as Sven keeps pointing out); one may give succour to BenM whilst another may provide inspiration to seanT but, in-themselves, they offer little.* And all the while the collapse of the Eurozone creeps closer....
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21578386-euro-zone-desperately-need-boost-no-news-bad-news-sleepwalkers
Why delete my last comment that was unrelated? It was pointing out the inconsistencies on what people highlight as out of order.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100217867/the-pro-eu-campaign-is-reduced-to-dressing-up-eurocrats-as-businessmen/
Only kidding, I'm sure Mark wasnt being entirely serious but at least his joking suggestion has more merit than the apparently serious criticism from posters who simply dont like the direction the poll is going in.
Please decide which identiy you wih to use.
Good stuff.
http://union-news.co.uk/2013/05/breaking-unite-members-vote-91-to-continue-political-fund/
At least the Kirk are not trying to pretend that independence will be "different, only the same"...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-23/nobel-laureate-phelps-warns-against-eu-as-iceland-drops-bid-2-.html
“We’re still learning about the European experiment and to what extent it’s going to succeed,” Phelps, 79, said in a telephone interview. “The possibility is not foreclosed that the experiment is going to prove unworkable, unsuccessful.”
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/pressroom/content/20130520IPR08593/html/EUUS-trade-talks-keep-Parliament-on-board-MEPs-warn
http://www.euractiv.com/socialeurope/strike-eu-institutions-looming-5-news-519979
Ok. Nothing sinister or dodgy in it, just that the iPad won't let me log in as Sam. I'll check if the PC lets me login as iSam and if it does I guess I'll be iSam
Democratically elected chamber reminds officials of its legitimacy and ensures they will held to account.
What's not to like?
*sound of world's smallest violin*
http://www.thisisbristol.co.uk/Burglars-afraid-dark-Crime-falls-Bristol-street/story-13952633-detail/story.html#axzz2Tv1m6240
I see the Co op bank non story is still over ..
Co op bank stopping loans to new customers...
Those with existing overdrafts seem to be unaffected. ..
The motion passed by 87% of votes cast.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/05/24/uk-co-op-bank-lending-idUKBRE94N07320130524
The publicity given to the Bercow case should finally make it clear to them. The law does not differentiate between hand writting, print or the digital medium.
Must be news sense.
They may be right. People may genuinely think that Ed Miliband is the man to sort out the country's problems with a landslide victory.
Why the devil she didn't settle, I'll never know. She was obviously on a hiding to nothing.
Let's hope McAlpine bankrupts the Bercow family, and her pompous husband has to stand down. (I bet Farage would have a better chance in Buckingham now than in 2010!)
Quite like Sally B though, all told, even if she does seem to be a bit dense. It's that lefty woman thing of mine again...
Peter Hitchens (@ClarkeMicah on twitter) searches for his name and pulls up anyone who is personally attacking him, often asking them if they would say something like that to a stranger in the street.
Decent manners and common courtesy shouldnt be forgotten in the digital age (even if some on here have used the excuse that its just an online debate not real life to justify making up lies, misquotes, lack of apologies etc)
It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt
Additionally, if you take the view that a government that makes mistakes can no longer comment on those areas then the Labour party won't be able to have any policies at all...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2328921/David-McGreavy-named-murdering-children-1973.html
Second victory for Press freedom this week after Appeal Court ruled the public does have a right to know about Boris Johnson's philandering past.
City come from 3-0 down to to win a seven goal thriller....
hmmmm
I hope she gets seriously financially clobbered. Her old man's a ghastly little poison dwarf too and he'll end up absorbing part of the hit.
Anyway, it's a good opportunity to post a link to this masterpiece
http://radans.net/jens/planestory.html
I feel the same about Caroline Flint and Nadine.
"Tony Blair responded to 7/7 by rushing out a twelve-point plan which his Home Secretary hadn't had proper sight of, and which the Labour Chairman of the Home Affairs Select committee called "half-baked". Much of it was never implemented, which was just as well, and its most startling feature was immediately dropped - new powers to close mosques (as if that would have helped). One of its main proposals was to hold suspects without charge for up to 90 days. This was red top government: the then Prime Minister was running the country as if he were a tabloid editor."
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2013/05/by-paul-goodmanfollow-paul-on-twitter-tony-blair-responded-to-77-by-rushing-out-a-twelve-point-plan-which-his-home-secreta.html
I posted a link to it on a professional discussion website and, perchane co-incidentally, one poster, who has been consistently offensive to others announced he(?) was fed up with us and cleared off!