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Biden slips sharply in the WH2024 betting after more memory lapses – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,211
    TimS said:

    Never understand why some right wingers who are presumably all about the state getting out of our way in other walks of life are so keen to give them the power to kill us. No thanks.

    To be fair the state already does have the power to kill us when it sends in police marksmen who kill those with knives and guns on a rampage and a threat to others, even without the death penalty
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,743
    dixiedean said:

    Harper said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Indeed. If we had the death penalty for drug trafficking into the uk much of the uk drug trade would be wiped out overnight. At present prison is seen as an acceptable cost of doing business.
    And yet they were readily and easily available in Taiwan when I lived there in the 90's.
    Or in 80s Russia…
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,231
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Western populations aren't too happy when people get wrongly imprisoned - see for instance the post office situation.
    We can start with the low hanging fruit: execute multiple murderers where there is no plausible doubt about their guilt.
    It amazes me how many people have seemingly never heard of Timothy Evans or the Birmingham Six.
    That's like arguing against vaccinations because some people will have fatal adverse events.

    Have you heard of Stephen Wright?
    If vaccinations had zero statistical efficacy, yes. It would be exactly comparable.
    Quite. I find the comparison extraordinary, as WG is demanding "no plausible doubt" - which is pretty much the assumption when some murderer is convicted, *by definition*, at the trial. Even when there was at at the time, never mind later.

    And I can't see why the unfortunate RC Bishop of Durham is being brought into the conversation.
    When you have a mass vaccination campaign, you know for a fact that a small percentage of people will die as a direct consequence.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-65321937

    The death of a psychologist after his Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid-19 jab was due to "unintended complications of the vaccine", an inquest has ruled.

    Stephen Wright, an NHS employee in south-east London, died 10 days after his first dose in January 2021, senior coroner Andrew Harris found.

    Dr Wright, 32, suffered a blood clot to the brain after receiving the vaccine.
    Given that the error rate in a murder trial is vastly higher, your comparison is not only crass but useless.
    How many innocent people were executed in the decade before the abolition of the death penalty? A lot fewer than were killed by the covid vaccine.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,059

    TimS said:

    Never understand why some right wingers who are presumably all about the state getting out of our way in other walks of life are so keen to give them the power to kill us. No thanks.

    The primary function of the state is to deliver justice and maintain order, neither of which are served by putting the rights of violent criminals ahead of the rights of law-abiding citizens.
    You mean, like the executioners who get to kill innocent law-abiding citizens?
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,059

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Western populations aren't too happy when people get wrongly imprisoned - see for instance the post office situation.
    We can start with the low hanging fruit: execute multiple murderers where there is no plausible doubt about their guilt.
    It amazes me how many people have seemingly never heard of Timothy Evans or the Birmingham Six.
    That's like arguing against vaccinations because some people will have fatal adverse events.

    Have you heard of Stephen Wright?
    If vaccinations had zero statistical efficacy, yes. It would be exactly comparable.
    Quite. I find the comparison extraordinary, as WG is demanding "no plausible doubt" - which is pretty much the assumption when some murderer is convicted, *by definition*, at the trial. Even when there was at at the time, never mind later.

    And I can't see why the unfortunate RC Bishop of Durham is being brought into the conversation.
    When you have a mass vaccination campaign, you know for a fact that a small percentage of people will die as a direct consequence.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-65321937

    The death of a psychologist after his Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid-19 jab was due to "unintended complications of the vaccine", an inquest has ruled.

    Stephen Wright, an NHS employee in south-east London, died 10 days after his first dose in January 2021, senior coroner Andrew Harris found.

    Dr Wright, 32, suffered a blood clot to the brain after receiving the vaccine.
    Given that the error rate in a murder trial is vastly higher, your comparison is not only crass but useless.
    How many innocent people were executed in the decade before the abolition of the death penalty? A lot fewer than were killed by the covid vaccine.
    How many people went to court accused?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,231
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Western populations aren't too happy when people get wrongly imprisoned - see for instance the post office situation.
    We can start with the low hanging fruit: execute multiple murderers where there is no plausible doubt about their guilt.
    It amazes me how many people have seemingly never heard of Timothy Evans or the Birmingham Six.
    That's like arguing against vaccinations because some people will have fatal adverse events.

    Have you heard of Stephen Wright?
    If vaccinations had zero statistical efficacy, yes. It would be exactly comparable.
    Quite. I find the comparison extraordinary, as WG is demanding "no plausible doubt" - which is pretty much the assumption when some murderer is convicted, *by definition*, at the trial. Even when there was at at the time, never mind later.

    And I can't see why the unfortunate RC Bishop of Durham is being brought into the conversation.
    When you have a mass vaccination campaign, you know for a fact that a small percentage of people will die as a direct consequence.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-65321937

    The death of a psychologist after his Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid-19 jab was due to "unintended complications of the vaccine", an inquest has ruled.

    Stephen Wright, an NHS employee in south-east London, died 10 days after his first dose in January 2021, senior coroner Andrew Harris found.

    Dr Wright, 32, suffered a blood clot to the brain after receiving the vaccine.
    Given that the error rate in a murder trial is vastly higher, your comparison is not only crass but useless.
    How many innocent people were executed in the decade before the abolition of the death penalty? A lot fewer than were killed by the covid vaccine.
    How many people went to court accused?
    If the risk of putting innocent people on trial is also intolerable then we should abolish the judicial system altogether.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,666
    Harper said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TimS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Any chance the Dem's might ask a celebrity to be their Presidential candidate?

    They'd have no shortage of potential candidates....

    We’ve done the Taylor Swift for POTUS debate yesterday already, I’m afraid.
    Well I was thinking someone rather older. George Clooney for example? And I'm serious!

    The Dems have gotten themselves into such deep shit with Biden that they're going to have to do something desperate to stop Trump?
    Bruce Springsteen.

    Definitely Born in the USA so no birther issues.
    What about Beyonce.
    One half of a power couple.

    I have to be careful commenting on black cultural things, I am a Yorkshire girl and never seen anything like it in my local pub - but what did we make of Jay Z’s new haircut at Grammies? Dreads are normally cool and work of art, but this didn’t look like it suited him much. He said some weird stuff too, imo.

    Maybe not Beyoncé. But if Biden steps aside, it’s got to be Kamala Harris.

    I don’t even agree with the post “ Dems have gotten themselves into such deep shit with Biden that they're going to have to do something desperate to stop Trump” I don’t think there’s much problem here at all. US have a history of if liking administrations mid term, or very old incumbents, they keep re-electing them. Even if it wan’t Trump, who’ll be an easy opponent for the Dems with his back catalogue, I still think it will be plain sailing for Biden once it all starts properly.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,743
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Harper said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Indeed. If we had the death penalty for drug trafficking into the uk much of the uk drug trade would be wiped out overnight. At present prison is seen as an acceptable cost of doing business.
    Back in my day on a Saturday we watched and smiled, because "Saturday is Tiswas, never a day to miss 'cos Saturday is Tiswas day".

    Now Saturday is house troll day. We don't want your death penalty over here matey boy!
    I fear it may be coming. Drugs like Fentanyl and Tranq are so dangerous, nations may have to start executing the dealers

    110,000 Americans died of a drug overdose last year. Horrendous. If you could save those lives by hanging 1000 dealers, would you take the offer? Many would

    I suspect Salvador will export its policy
    In the UK and the US our drug dealers are feted. Despite Purdue Pharma promoting Oxycontin to the detriment of the population at large we make the Sacklurs and their like patrons of the arts.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/books/review/empire-of-pain-sackler-dynasty-patrick-radden-keefe.html
    The story of the Sacklers is an absolute disgrace, I agree, but it is not fundemantal to the rise of Fentanyl and now Tranq

    People who never went near Oxycontin or any of those horrible legal opioids are dying of Fent and Tranq

    110,000 Americans in a year. Like a really bad war; like two Vietnams, every year
    The problem with the OxyContin story, is that it’s a massive setback for those who want to see a more liberal approach to drugs, when a legal drug causes so many societal issues.

    As as been said many times before, you have to have an extreme approach to be successful. Either you sell everything in pharmacies and spend the taxes on rehab facilities, or you go down the Singapore route of high sentences for first offenders. The “war on drugs” route, as seen in most of the west, simply doesn’t work.
    Yep, it's one or the other

    I used to be libertarian: legalise everything, tax it for the benefit of the state. Having now personally witnessed what the latest drugs are doing to the USA, I have almost entirely changed my mind. Singapore might be the only solution

    America cannot tolerate 110,000 deaths from OD every year, and getting worse...
    Most of the nastiest drugs are as a result of prohibition - pack more punch into a smaller volume, insanely dangerous home chemistry etc.

    Not to mention an opiates crisis driven by doctors being paid to prescribe as much as possible.

  • Options
    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,803
    edited February 10
    Now that we are on to policy on prisons and 'justice', an inevitably depressing discussion; I think it is time to get on with the rest of the day.

    However before doing so I would flag up this case, which never really got the attention it deserves. A murder conviction reduced to manslaughter 9 years on, and on the basis of evidence of fragile mental health and 'co-ercive and controlling behaviour' by the victim. Someone who - being dead - presumably has no way of responding to such accusations.

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2019/dec/10/sally-challen-release-prison-husband-murder-appeal

  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,019
    edited February 10
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Western populations aren't too happy when people get wrongly imprisoned - see for instance the post office situation.
    We can start with the low hanging fruit: execute multiple murderers where there is no plausible doubt about their guilt.
    It amazes me how many people have seemingly never heard of Timothy Evans or the Birmingham Six.
    That's like arguing against vaccinations because some people will have fatal adverse events.

    Have you heard of Stephen Wright?
    If vaccinations had zero statistical efficacy, yes. It would be exactly comparable.
    Quite. I find the comparison extraordinary, as WG is demanding "no plausible doubt" - which is pretty much the assumption when some murderer is convicted, *by definition*, at the trial. Even when there was at at the time, never mind later.

    And I can't see why the unfortunate RC Bishop of Durham is being brought into the conversation.
    When you have a mass vaccination campaign, you know for a fact that a small percentage of people will die as a direct consequence.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-65321937

    The death of a psychologist after his Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid-19 jab was due to "unintended complications of the vaccine", an inquest has ruled.

    Stephen Wright, an NHS employee in south-east London, died 10 days after his first dose in January 2021, senior coroner Andrew Harris found.

    Dr Wright, 32, suffered a blood clot to the brain after receiving the vaccine.
    Given that the error rate in a murder trial is vastly higher, your comparison is not only crass but useless.
    The risk associated with the COVID vaccination also has the distinction of being voluntary, while the risk of being mistakenly executed... isn't.

    The inevitability of a Labour victory and the palpable threat of a far-right lunatic in the US doesn't leave anywhere for PB's centre-right posters to go. I think that explains some of the rather bizarre positions being taken at the moment.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,975
    GIN1138 said:

    Any chance the Dem's might ask a celebrity to be their Presidential candidate?

    They'd have no shortage of potential candidates....

    OK, this is crazy suggestion, but here me out… What about Michelle Obama!
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,528
    edited February 10
    The time to parachute Michelle Obama into the race has been and gone. This leaves aside the fact that she has reiterated time and time again that she’s not interested.

    It is going to be really hard for the Democrats to legitimise a candidate at the convention if the nominee isn’t Biden. Expect Trump to run with the “establishment stitch up” narrative - they didn’t even let you choose.

    The only candidate that I think manages to mitigate that is Harris because of her role as No.2 on the ticket. Even more so if she were to assume the presidency beforehand.

  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,015
    edited February 10

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Harper said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Indeed. If we had the death penalty for drug trafficking into the uk much of the uk drug trade would be wiped out overnight. At present prison is seen as an acceptable cost of doing business.
    Back in my day on a Saturday we watched and smiled, because "Saturday is Tiswas, never a day to miss 'cos Saturday is Tiswas day".

    Now Saturday is house troll day. We don't want your death penalty over here matey boy!
    I fear it may be coming. Drugs like Fentanyl and Tranq are so dangerous, nations may have to start executing the dealers

    110,000 Americans died of a drug overdose last year. Horrendous. If you could save those lives by hanging 1000 dealers, would you take the offer? Many would

    I suspect Salvador will export its policy
    In the UK and the US our drug dealers are feted. Despite Purdue Pharma promoting Oxycontin to the detriment of the population at large we make the Sacklurs and their like patrons of the arts.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/books/review/empire-of-pain-sackler-dynasty-patrick-radden-keefe.html
    The story of the Sacklers is an absolute disgrace, I agree, but it is not fundemantal to the rise of Fentanyl and now Tranq

    People who never went near Oxycontin or any of those horrible legal opioids are dying of Fent and Tranq

    110,000 Americans in a year. Like a really bad war; like two Vietnams, every year
    The problem with the OxyContin story, is that it’s a massive setback for those who want to see a more liberal approach to drugs, when a legal drug causes so many societal issues.

    As as been said many times before, you have to have an extreme approach to be successful. Either you sell everything in pharmacies and spend the taxes on rehab facilities, or you go down the Singapore route of high sentences for first offenders. The “war on drugs” route, as seen in most of the west, simply doesn’t work.
    Yep, it's one or the other

    I used to be libertarian: legalise everything, tax it for the benefit of the state. Having now personally witnessed what the latest drugs are doing to the USA, I have almost entirely changed my mind. Singapore might be the only solution

    America cannot tolerate 110,000 deaths from OD every year, and getting worse...
    Most of the nastiest drugs are as a result of prohibition - pack more punch into a smaller volume, insanely dangerous home chemistry etc.

    Not to mention an opiates crisis driven by doctors being paid to prescribe as much as possible.

    Yes the Oxy problem was a specifically American problem, because of the unique way prescription drugs are advertised and marketed in that country.

    If you could just go and get generic heroin or morphine from the pharmacy for a few bucks, it would ease many of the current issues in the States.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,702

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Harper said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Indeed. If we had the death penalty for drug trafficking into the uk much of the uk drug trade would be wiped out overnight. At present prison is seen as an acceptable cost of doing business.
    Back in my day on a Saturday we watched and smiled, because "Saturday is Tiswas, never a day to miss 'cos Saturday is Tiswas day".

    Now Saturday is house troll day. We don't want your death penalty over here matey boy!
    I fear it may be coming. Drugs like Fentanyl and Tranq are so dangerous, nations may have to start executing the dealers

    110,000 Americans died of a drug overdose last year. Horrendous. If you could save those lives by hanging 1000 dealers, would you take the offer? Many would

    I suspect Salvador will export its policy
    In the UK and the US our drug dealers are feted. Despite Purdue Pharma promoting Oxycontin to the detriment of the population at large we make the Sacklurs and their like patrons of the arts.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/books/review/empire-of-pain-sackler-dynasty-patrick-radden-keefe.html
    The story of the Sacklers is an absolute disgrace, I agree, but it is not fundemantal to the rise of Fentanyl and now Tranq

    People who never went near Oxycontin or any of those horrible legal opioids are dying of Fent and Tranq

    110,000 Americans in a year. Like a really bad war; like two Vietnams, every year
    The problem with the OxyContin story, is that it’s a massive setback for those who want to see a more liberal approach to drugs, when a legal drug causes so many societal issues.

    As as been said many times before, you have to have an extreme approach to be successful. Either you sell everything in pharmacies and spend the taxes on rehab facilities, or you go down the Singapore route of high sentences for first offenders. The “war on drugs” route, as seen in most of the west, simply doesn’t work.
    Yep, it's one or the other

    I used to be libertarian: legalise everything, tax it for the benefit of the state. Having now personally witnessed what the latest drugs are doing to the USA, I have almost entirely changed my mind. Singapore might be the only solution

    America cannot tolerate 110,000 deaths from OD every year, and getting worse...
    Most of the nastiest drugs are as a result of prohibition - pack more punch into a smaller volume, insanely dangerous home chemistry etc.

    Not to mention an opiates crisis driven by doctors being paid to prescribe as much as possible.


    No, it’s not “Prohibition” - these drugs are - simply and unfortunately - better - in terms of giving the user a more intense high. They are a superior product

    The problem is the human condition. Humankind cannot bear very much reality. They were brewing beer in Gobekli Tepe - ie as soon as we were able, we wanted to get smashed
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,743

    GIN1138 said:

    Any chance the Dem's might ask a celebrity to be their Presidential candidate?

    They'd have no shortage of potential candidates....

    OK, this is crazy suggestion, but here me out… What about Michelle Obama!
    No evidence of expertise in elective politics.

    What the Democrats really want is someone with the skills of Bill Clinton.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,975
    Carnyx said:

    Billions lost to fraud and error during UK's pandemic spending spree

    UK government must figure out how to share spending data across departments after up to £59 billion ... was lost to fraud and error early in the pandemic.

    https://www.theregister.com/2024/02/09/nao_pandemic_fraud_data/


    NAO report: Lessons learned:tackling fraud and protecting propriety in government spending during an emergency
    https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/lessons-learned-tackling-fraud-and-protecting-propriety-in-government-spending-during-an-emergency.pdf

    Sounds a bit Dominic Cummings meets Big Brother but otoh that is [insert number here] pence off income tax.

    Hmm. 59x10e9 is almost 1K per person - rather more than that per actual adult UK taxpayer. Sure, it sounds better in terms of [edit] pence off basic rate, but ...

    Which might help why, for instance, central London is doing so much better than much of the UK, as we keep beingtold on PB. With that much money sloshing around either as it is or yielding cuts as it is exported to tax havens.
    Instead of warbling on about introducing the death penalty for drug dealers, what about for white collar fraud?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,931

    I see Kemi Badenoch has one of those big style makeover feature things in the Times.

    Which suggests Rupert has decided she’s next.

    Remember I've been on the Kemi bandwagon for a couple of years! :D
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,666
    Dura_Ace said:

    AlsoLei said:

    rkrkrk said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    I think Bidens record as President is superb, maybe best of my lifetime.

    But what Macron has done is really impressive. To set up your own party and dominate French politics from the centre is pretty unique.
    Biden has handed Afghanistan back to the Taliban, Putin was able to invade Ukraine on his watch, he has not been able to bring about peace in Gaza, US interest rates are still sky high and the US deficit is over half a billion dollars now as he spends more and more. Plus he has no real control over the level of migrants coming over the Mexican border.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/11/us-deficit-tops-half-a-trillion-dollars-in-the-first-quarter-of-fiscal-year.html

    He is certainly not superb, in fact he is probably the weakest Democratic President since Carter, however if he faces Trump again he may still win. Whereas if Haley was his opponent in November he would definitely be heading for the exit door
    Afghanistan - I think he took the necessary and tough decision (implemented poorly from a press perspective). We can see now that all our efforts to build an afghan state were largely useless and Taliban was taking over whenever US left.

    Pulling out has certainly helped free up resources to support Ukraine - I would say he has struck a good balance between defending Europe & not starting WWIII.

    Gaza is a disaster and Biden needs to change his policy.

    On the economy, he has managed to bring down inflation without crashing the economy. Economic growth is good. I'm particularly impressed we finally have a dem president who ignores Larry summers.
    The Afghanistan withdrawal policy was actually Trump's, wasn't it?

    I agree that it seems wise in retrospect - the second decade of the Afghan adventure was a dead loss from the west's POV. The plug really should have been pulled after the death of Bin Laden.
    They should have just left the Taliban in power in 2001 and paid the Pakistani ISI $1bn to kill OBL. Or toppled Musharraf and replaced him with a biddable general who would kill OBL the next time he set sandal in the FATA.

    Exactly the same result as we have now at 1/1000th of the cost.
    I’m not sure I can give a like to a post with so much assassinating. But why can’t the Pakistani’s just come together to sort their problems out? If UK actually needed a national unity government in 1930s, surely Pakistan needs one now. How can they be split in so many ways - it makes our 5 houses Tories look all joined up. It’s sad.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,231
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Never understand why some right wingers who are presumably all about the state getting out of our way in other walks of life are so keen to give them the power to kill us. No thanks.

    The primary function of the state is to deliver justice and maintain order, neither of which are served by putting the rights of violent criminals ahead of the rights of law-abiding citizens.
    You’re assuming the newly minted secret police will never come for you.

    Just as a conservative is a liberal who’s been mugged, a liberal is conservative who’s been arrested.
    We had the death penalty for centuries without a being a Stalinist police state.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,019
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Harper said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Indeed. If we had the death penalty for drug trafficking into the uk much of the uk drug trade would be wiped out overnight. At present prison is seen as an acceptable cost of doing business.
    Back in my day on a Saturday we watched and smiled, because "Saturday is Tiswas, never a day to miss 'cos Saturday is Tiswas day".

    Now Saturday is house troll day. We don't want your death penalty over here matey boy!
    I fear it may be coming. Drugs like Fentanyl and Tranq are so dangerous, nations may have to start executing the dealers

    110,000 Americans died of a drug overdose last year. Horrendous. If you could save those lives by hanging 1000 dealers, would you take the offer? Many would

    I suspect Salvador will export its policy
    In the UK and the US our drug dealers are feted. Despite Purdue Pharma promoting Oxycontin to the detriment of the population at large we make the Sacklurs and their like patrons of the arts.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/books/review/empire-of-pain-sackler-dynasty-patrick-radden-keefe.html
    The story of the Sacklers is an absolute disgrace, I agree, but it is not fundemantal to the rise of Fentanyl and now Tranq

    People who never went near Oxycontin or any of those horrible legal opioids are dying of Fent and Tranq

    110,000 Americans in a year. Like a really bad war; like two Vietnams, every year
    The problem with the OxyContin story, is that it’s a massive setback for those who want to see a more liberal approach to drugs, when a legal drug causes so many societal issues.

    As as been said many times before, you have to have an extreme approach to be successful. Either you sell everything in pharmacies and spend the taxes on rehab facilities, or you go down the Singapore route of high sentences for first offenders. The “war on drugs” route, as seen in most of the west, simply doesn’t work.
    Yep, it's one or the other

    I used to be libertarian: legalise everything, tax it for the benefit of the state. Having now personally witnessed what the latest drugs are doing to the USA, I have almost entirely changed my mind. Singapore might be the only solution

    America cannot tolerate 110,000 deaths from OD every year, and getting worse...
    Most of the nastiest drugs are as a result of prohibition - pack more punch into a smaller volume, insanely dangerous home chemistry etc.

    Not to mention an opiates crisis driven by doctors being paid to prescribe as much as possible.

    Yes the Oxy problem was a specifically American problem, because of the unique way prescription drugs are advertised and marketed in that country.
    The doctor sat next to me is concerned that the enormous NHS waiting list is going to have some serious long-term effects on the population, aside from obvious stuff like cancer treatments. Simple stuff like inactivity, but also the volume of prescription drugs people are using just to endure each week.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,975

    The time to parachute Michelle Obama into the race has been and gone. This leaves aside the fact that she has reiterated time and time again that she’s not interested.

    It is going to be really hard for the Democrats to legitimise a candidate at the convention if the nominee isn’t Biden. Expect Trump to run with the “establishment stitch up” narrative - they didn’t even let you choose.

    The only candidate that I think manages to mitigate that is Harris because of her role as No.2 on the ticket. Even more so if she were to assume the presidency beforehand.

    Just to clarify: my suggestion of Michelle Obama was not serious.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,418

    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Western populations aren't too happy when people get wrongly imprisoned - see for instance the post office situation.
    We can start with the low hanging fruit: execute multiple murderers where there is no plausible doubt about their guilt.
    It amazes me how many people have seemingly never heard of Timothy Evans or the Birmingham Six.
    That's like arguing against vaccinations because some people will have fatal adverse events.

    Have you heard of Stephen Wright?
    If vaccinations had zero statistical efficacy, yes. It would be exactly comparable.
    Quite. I find the comparison extraordinary, as WG is demanding "no plausible doubt" - which is pretty much the assumption when some murderer is convicted, *by definition*, at the trial. Even when there was at at the time, never mind later.

    And I can't see why the unfortunate RC Bishop of Durham is being brought into the conversation.
    When you have a mass vaccination campaign, you know for a fact that a small percentage of people will die as a direct consequence.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-65321937

    The death of a psychologist after his Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid-19 jab was due to "unintended complications of the vaccine", an inquest has ruled.

    Stephen Wright, an NHS employee in south-east London, died 10 days after his first dose in January 2021, senior coroner Andrew Harris found.

    Dr Wright, 32, suffered a blood clot to the brain after receiving the vaccine.
    But you're comparing apples with bullshit here. There is simply no correlation (other than a death) between an erroneous state execution and an individual adverse reaction to a mass vaccination.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,702
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Harper said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Indeed. If we had the death penalty for drug trafficking into the uk much of the uk drug trade would be wiped out overnight. At present prison is seen as an acceptable cost of doing business.
    Back in my day on a Saturday we watched and smiled, because "Saturday is Tiswas, never a day to miss 'cos Saturday is Tiswas day".

    Now Saturday is house troll day. We don't want your death penalty over here matey boy!
    I fear it may be coming. Drugs like Fentanyl and Tranq are so dangerous, nations may have to start executing the dealers

    110,000 Americans died of a drug overdose last year. Horrendous. If you could save those lives by hanging 1000 dealers, would you take the offer? Many would

    I suspect Salvador will export its policy
    In the UK and the US our drug dealers are feted. Despite Purdue Pharma promoting Oxycontin to the detriment of the population at large we make the Sacklurs and their like patrons of the arts.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/books/review/empire-of-pain-sackler-dynasty-patrick-radden-keefe.html
    The story of the Sacklers is an absolute disgrace, I agree, but it is not fundemantal to the rise of Fentanyl and now Tranq

    People who never went near Oxycontin or any of those horrible legal opioids are dying of Fent and Tranq

    110,000 Americans in a year. Like a really bad war; like two Vietnams, every year
    The problem with the OxyContin story, is that it’s a massive setback for those who want to see a more liberal approach to drugs, when a legal drug causes so many societal issues.

    As as been said many times before, you have to have an extreme approach to be successful. Either you sell everything in pharmacies and spend the taxes on rehab facilities, or you go down the Singapore route of high sentences for first offenders. The “war on drugs” route, as seen in most of the west, simply doesn’t work.
    Yep, it's one or the other

    I used to be libertarian: legalise everything, tax it for the benefit of the state. Having now personally witnessed what the latest drugs are doing to the USA, I have almost entirely changed my mind. Singapore might be the only solution

    America cannot tolerate 110,000 deaths from OD every year, and getting worse...
    Most of the nastiest drugs are as a result of prohibition - pack more punch into a smaller volume, insanely dangerous home chemistry etc.

    Not to mention an opiates crisis driven by doctors being paid to prescribe as much as possible.

    Yes the Oxy problem was a specifically American problem, because of the unique way prescription drugs are advertised and marketed in that country.

    If you could just go and get generic heroin or morphine from the pharmacy for a few bucks, it would ease many of the current issues in the States.
    This is wrong

    Fentanyl is not just 50 times stronger than smack, it offers a way more profound high. A more intense oblivion - so users say

    So even if you sell heroin at the corner shop the junkies will still seek out the better drug
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,931
    edited February 10

    Even if it wan’t Trump, who’ll be an easy opponent for the Dems with his back catalogue, I still think it will be plain sailing for Biden once it all starts properly.

    What? He can't string a coherent sentence together and clearly has no idea where he is or what he's going.The dam has broken and the media, which have hitherto been largely covering it all up, will now be remorseless. It will be like a pack pf wolves devouring a stricken animal. It's going to be brutal to watch.

    So Biden's finished. Done. He may not even finish his first term depending how how hard the media pack goes for him.

    The only question is what the Dems do now to get themselves out of the situation they've got themselves into.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,015

    The time to parachute Michelle Obama into the race has been and gone. This leaves aside the fact that she has reiterated time and time again that she’s not interested.

    It is going to be really hard for the Democrats to legitimise a candidate at the convention if the nominee isn’t Biden. Expect Trump to run with the “establishment stitch up” narrative - they didn’t even let you choose.

    The only candidate that I think manages to mitigate that is Harris because of her role as No.2 on the ticket. Even more so if she were to assume the presidency beforehand.

    Just to clarify: my suggestion of Michelle Obama was not serious.
    She’s third favourite to be next president!
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,975

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Never understand why some right wingers who are presumably all about the state getting out of our way in other walks of life are so keen to give them the power to kill us. No thanks.

    The primary function of the state is to deliver justice and maintain order, neither of which are served by putting the rights of violent criminals ahead of the rights of law-abiding citizens.
    You’re assuming the newly minted secret police will never come for you.

    Just as a conservative is a liberal who’s been mugged, a liberal is conservative who’s been arrested.
    We had the death penalty for centuries without a being a Stalinist police state.
    Most of those centuries were before Stalin was born, so, sure, they weren’t Stalinist. But I don’t think policing was better in the 19th century.

  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,162
    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    Other way round for me.

    Democracy should be about accurately representing the will of the people. There are arguments to be made about liberalism and the dangers of the tyranny of the majority, i.e. we shouldn't bring back hanging just because 51% of people approve of it.

    But in a democratic system, if a policy is overwhelmingly unpopular, a politician - as a representative of the people - shouldn't be trying to force it through.

    At best, we can get rid of them at the next election and vote in someone more aligned to the majority view. At worst, our democratic institutions aren't enough to act as a check on this. For example, the way FPTP delivers majorities on a minority of votes, or the enormous structural democratic deficit at the heart of the EU.

    TL;DR. Democracy should be about representing the will of the people. It should not be about politicians pursuing their pet projects. Unless you're arguing that we don't know what's good for us, in which case we
    might as well have done with it and appoint a dictator.
    You are getting into the whole Burkean argument of representatives vs delgates

    If a democratic leader is just a delegate what’s the point. Might as well have a cat. They are cheaper, more consistent and cleaner.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,666
    GIN1138 said:

    I see Kemi Badenoch has one of those big style makeover feature things in the Times.

    Which suggests Rupert has decided she’s next.

    Remember I've been on the Kemi bandwagon for a couple of years! :D
    I’m suspecting now Kemi will be next Tory leader.

    Great News for Starmer and Labour. She’s so utterly arrogant and abusive, and really into all that MAGA woke war stuff.

    But that would be the least of her problems. How is she going work with Braverman and the others? Remember Braverman was not sacked by Liz for a security lapse, it was because she was working with backbenchers to defeat not just Truss policy, but the policy of the government she was in. The only news Badenoch Shadow Cabinet will make will be all about personality and factional conflicts, suppressing their poll rating the whole term.

    Badenoch will be bad news for the Conservatives. They are not coming back to sanity so we can vote for them anytime soon. 😕
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,231

    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Western populations aren't too happy when people get wrongly imprisoned - see for instance the post office situation.
    We can start with the low hanging fruit: execute multiple murderers where there is no plausible doubt about their guilt.
    It amazes me how many people have seemingly never heard of Timothy Evans or the Birmingham Six.
    That's like arguing against vaccinations because some people will have fatal adverse events.

    Have you heard of Stephen Wright?
    If vaccinations had zero statistical efficacy, yes. It would be exactly comparable.
    Quite. I find the comparison extraordinary, as WG is demanding "no plausible doubt" - which is pretty much the assumption when some murderer is convicted, *by definition*, at the trial. Even when there was at at the time, never mind later.

    And I can't see why the unfortunate RC Bishop of Durham is being brought into the conversation.
    When you have a mass vaccination campaign, you know for a fact that a small percentage of people will die as a direct consequence.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-65321937

    The death of a psychologist after his Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid-19 jab was due to "unintended complications of the vaccine", an inquest has ruled.

    Stephen Wright, an NHS employee in south-east London, died 10 days after his first dose in January 2021, senior coroner Andrew Harris found.

    Dr Wright, 32, suffered a blood clot to the brain after receiving the vaccine.
    But you're comparing apples with bullshit here. There is simply no correlation (other than a death) between an erroneous state execution and an individual adverse reaction to a mass vaccination.
    The connection is that there are always risks in life.

    Some people think that the risk of being murdered by an aslyum seeker is worth it to live in the kind of country that welcomes asylum seekers, but it's not much consolation to the people who've paid with their lives.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,528

    The time to parachute Michelle Obama into the race has been and gone. This leaves aside the fact that she has reiterated time and time again that she’s not interested.

    It is going to be really hard for the Democrats to legitimise a candidate at the convention if the nominee isn’t Biden. Expect Trump to run with the “establishment stitch up” narrative - they didn’t even let you choose.

    The only candidate that I think manages to mitigate that is Harris because of her role as No.2 on the ticket. Even more so if she were to assume the presidency beforehand.

    Just to clarify: my suggestion of Michelle Obama was not serious.
    No problem - it wasn’t aimed specifically at you- there are plenty of people who do seem to suggest it seriously!
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,702
    On fentanyl v heroin



    “Is Fentanyl More Addictive Than Heroin?

    While both drugs can cause addiction, fentanyl is more addictive than heroin. The reason it is easier to get addicted to fentanyl has to do with its potency. The effects experienced after using it once can bring about a euphoric state.

    One feels these effects much faster than heroin, and the high is significantly more intense. Sadly, the brain remembers the experience as a positive behavior and will start craving fentanyl. Additionally, many people that use fentanyl will want to use it again to achieve similar results. With just a few times, addiction occurs.”

    https://tuliphillrecovery.com/fentanyl-more-addictive-than-heroin/
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,975
    .

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    Other way round for me.

    Democracy should be about accurately representing the will of the people. There are arguments to be made about liberalism and the dangers of the tyranny of the majority, i.e. we shouldn't bring back hanging just because 51% of people approve of it.

    But in a democratic system, if a policy is overwhelmingly unpopular, a politician - as a representative of the people - shouldn't be trying to force it through.

    At best, we can get rid of them at the next election and vote in someone more aligned to the majority view. At worst, our democratic institutions aren't enough to act as a check on this. For example, the way FPTP delivers majorities on a minority of votes, or the enormous structural democratic deficit at the heart of the EU.

    TL;DR. Democracy should be about representing the will of the people. It should not be about politicians pursuing their pet projects. Unless you're arguing that we don't know what's good for us, in which case we
    might as well have done with it and appoint a dictator.
    You are getting into the whole Burkean argument of representatives vs delgates

    If a democratic leader is just a delegate what’s the point. Might as well have a cat. They are cheaper, more consistent and cleaner.
    I don’t know that they’re more consistent. Yesterday, my tomcat loved Bonkers cat treats. Today, he refuses to eat them.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,231

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Never understand why some right wingers who are presumably all about the state getting out of our way in other walks of life are so keen to give them the power to kill us. No thanks.

    The primary function of the state is to deliver justice and maintain order, neither of which are served by putting the rights of violent criminals ahead of the rights of law-abiding citizens.
    You’re assuming the newly minted secret police will never come for you.

    Just as a conservative is a liberal who’s been mugged, a liberal is conservative who’s been arrested.
    We had the death penalty for centuries without a being a Stalinist police state.
    Most of those centuries were before Stalin was born, so, sure, they weren’t Stalinist. But I don’t think policing was better in the 19th century.

    To avoid the risk of a Stalinist secret police, we could mandate that all executions be carried out in public.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,975

    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Western populations aren't too happy when people get wrongly imprisoned - see for instance the post office situation.
    We can start with the low hanging fruit: execute multiple murderers where there is no plausible doubt about their guilt.
    It amazes me how many people have seemingly never heard of Timothy Evans or the Birmingham Six.
    That's like arguing against vaccinations because some people will have fatal adverse events.

    Have you heard of Stephen Wright?
    If vaccinations had zero statistical efficacy, yes. It would be exactly comparable.
    Quite. I find the comparison extraordinary, as WG is demanding "no plausible doubt" - which is pretty much the assumption when some murderer is convicted, *by definition*, at the trial. Even when there was at at the time, never mind later.

    And I can't see why the unfortunate RC Bishop of Durham is being brought into the conversation.
    When you have a mass vaccination campaign, you know for a fact that a small percentage of people will die as a direct consequence.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-65321937

    The death of a psychologist after his Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid-19 jab was due to "unintended complications of the vaccine", an inquest has ruled.

    Stephen Wright, an NHS employee in south-east London, died 10 days after his first dose in January 2021, senior coroner Andrew Harris found.

    Dr Wright, 32, suffered a blood clot to the brain after receiving the vaccine.
    But you're comparing apples with bullshit here. There is simply no correlation (other than a death) between an erroneous state execution and an individual adverse reaction to a mass vaccination.
    The connection is that there are always risks in life.

    Some people think that the risk of being murdered by an aslyum seeker is worth it to live in the kind of country that welcomes asylum seekers, but it's not much consolation to the people who've paid with their lives.
    Do you have any evidence that asylum seekers kill more people than non-asylum seekers? A couple of days ago, I linked to various studies showing immigrants have about the same or lower crime rates.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,418

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Never understand why some right wingers who are presumably all about the state getting out of our way in other walks of life are so keen to give them the power to kill us. No thanks.

    The primary function of the state is to deliver justice and maintain order, neither of which are served by putting the rights of violent criminals ahead of the rights of law-abiding citizens.
    You’re assuming the newly minted secret police will never come for you.

    Just as a conservative is a liberal who’s been mugged, a liberal is conservative who’s been arrested.
    We had the death penalty for centuries without a being a Stalinist police state.
    I much preferred Euro-Federalist @williamglenn to this rabid totalitarian version.

    The quality of the @williamglenn Euro-Federalist debate was much stronger than this base old nonsense.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,041
    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    I think Bidens record as President is superb, maybe best of my lifetime.

    But what Macron has done is really impressive. To set up your own party and dominate French politics from the centre is pretty unique.
    Biden has handed Afghanistan back to the Taliban, Putin was able to invade Ukraine on his watch, he has not been able to bring about peace in Gaza, US interest rates are still sky high and the US deficit is over half a billion dollars now as he spends more and more. Plus he has no real control over the level of migrants coming over the Mexican border.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/11/us-deficit-tops-half-a-trillion-dollars-in-the-first-quarter-of-fiscal-year.html

    He is certainly not superb, in fact he is probably the weakest Democratic President since Carter, however if he faces Trump again he may still win. Whereas if Haley was his opponent in November he would definitely be heading for the exit door
    Afghanistan - I think he took the necessary and tough decision (implemented poorly from a press perspective). We can see now that all our efforts to build an afghan state were largely useless and Taliban was taking over whenever US left.

    Pulling out has certainly helped free up resources to support Ukraine - I would say he has struck a good balance between defending Europe & not starting WWIII.

    Gaza is a disaster and Biden needs to change his policy.

    On the economy, he has managed to bring down inflation without crashing the economy. Economic growth is good. I'm particularly impressed we finally have a dem president who ignores Larry summers.
    The US didn't need to leave, it could have kept a presence there indefinitely after 9/11 to shore up the elected government and ensure terrorists did not establish bases in Afghanistan again. It was Boris who led efforts to send weapons to Ukraine pre invasion, not Biden.

    On Gaza Biden has now said Israel's response goes too far but he is powerless while Netanyahu is focused on eliminating Hamas.

    Interest rates are still high and the deficit getting higher
    You're essentially wrong on Ukraine. The U.S. efforts both to deter Russia, and get Ukraine to prepare for an invasion in the twelve months before it happened, were extensive.
    I've posted the account at least half a dozen times before.

    And you're wrong on the deficit, which is likely to fall this year. Without the Trump tax cut for the wealthiest, it's just about possible they'd be in surplus.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,231

    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Western populations aren't too happy when people get wrongly imprisoned - see for instance the post office situation.
    We can start with the low hanging fruit: execute multiple murderers where there is no plausible doubt about their guilt.
    It amazes me how many people have seemingly never heard of Timothy Evans or the Birmingham Six.
    That's like arguing against vaccinations because some people will have fatal adverse events.

    Have you heard of Stephen Wright?
    If vaccinations had zero statistical efficacy, yes. It would be exactly comparable.
    Quite. I find the comparison extraordinary, as WG is demanding "no plausible doubt" - which is pretty much the assumption when some murderer is convicted, *by definition*, at the trial. Even when there was at at the time, never mind later.

    And I can't see why the unfortunate RC Bishop of Durham is being brought into the conversation.
    When you have a mass vaccination campaign, you know for a fact that a small percentage of people will die as a direct consequence.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-65321937

    The death of a psychologist after his Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid-19 jab was due to "unintended complications of the vaccine", an inquest has ruled.

    Stephen Wright, an NHS employee in south-east London, died 10 days after his first dose in January 2021, senior coroner Andrew Harris found.

    Dr Wright, 32, suffered a blood clot to the brain after receiving the vaccine.
    But you're comparing apples with bullshit here. There is simply no correlation (other than a death) between an erroneous state execution and an individual adverse reaction to a mass vaccination.
    The connection is that there are always risks in life.

    Some people think that the risk of being murdered by an aslyum seeker is worth it to live in the kind of country that welcomes asylum seekers, but it's not much consolation to the people who've paid with their lives.
    Do you have any evidence that asylum seekers kill more people than non-asylum seekers? A couple of days ago, I linked to various studies showing immigrants have about the same or lower crime rates.
    Is it a tolerable risk to have people like the Reading park stabber in the country? Why is that ok, but the risk of a miscarriage of justice is not ok?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-55622476
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,015
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Harper said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Indeed. If we had the death penalty for drug trafficking into the uk much of the uk drug trade would be wiped out overnight. At present prison is seen as an acceptable cost of doing business.
    Back in my day on a Saturday we watched and smiled, because "Saturday is Tiswas, never a day to miss 'cos Saturday is Tiswas day".

    Now Saturday is house troll day. We don't want your death penalty over here matey boy!
    I fear it may be coming. Drugs like Fentanyl and Tranq are so dangerous, nations may have to start executing the dealers

    110,000 Americans died of a drug overdose last year. Horrendous. If you could save those lives by hanging 1000 dealers, would you take the offer? Many would

    I suspect Salvador will export its policy
    In the UK and the US our drug dealers are feted. Despite Purdue Pharma promoting Oxycontin to the detriment of the population at large we make the Sacklurs and their like patrons of the arts.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/books/review/empire-of-pain-sackler-dynasty-patrick-radden-keefe.html
    The story of the Sacklers is an absolute disgrace, I agree, but it is not fundemantal to the rise of Fentanyl and now Tranq

    People who never went near Oxycontin or any of those horrible legal opioids are dying of Fent and Tranq

    110,000 Americans in a year. Like a really bad war; like two Vietnams, every year
    The problem with the OxyContin story, is that it’s a massive setback for those who want to see a more liberal approach to drugs, when a legal drug causes so many societal issues.

    As as been said many times before, you have to have an extreme approach to be successful. Either you sell everything in pharmacies and spend the taxes on rehab facilities, or you go down the Singapore route of high sentences for first offenders. The “war on drugs” route, as seen in most of the west, simply doesn’t work.
    Yep, it's one or the other

    I used to be libertarian: legalise everything, tax it for the benefit of the state. Having now personally witnessed what the latest drugs are doing to the USA, I have almost entirely changed my mind. Singapore might be the only solution

    America cannot tolerate 110,000 deaths from OD every year, and getting worse...
    Most of the nastiest drugs are as a result of prohibition - pack more punch into a smaller volume, insanely dangerous home chemistry etc.

    Not to mention an opiates crisis driven by doctors being paid to prescribe as much as possible.

    Yes the Oxy problem was a specifically American problem, because of the unique way prescription drugs are advertised and marketed in that country.

    If you could just go and get generic heroin or morphine from the pharmacy for a few bucks, it would ease many of the current issues in the States.
    This is wrong

    Fentanyl is not just 50 times stronger than smack, it offers a way more profound high. A more intense oblivion - so users say

    So even if you sell heroin at the corner shop the junkies will still seek out the better drug
    Well sell them all in the corner shop then. At least people will know what exactly they’re taking, most of the deaths are from unintentional overdoses.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,418

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Western populations aren't too happy when people get wrongly imprisoned - see for instance the post office situation.
    We can start with the low hanging fruit: execute multiple murderers where there is no plausible doubt about their guilt.
    It amazes me how many people have seemingly never heard of Timothy Evans or the Birmingham Six.
    That's like arguing against vaccinations because some people will have fatal adverse events.

    Have you heard of Stephen Wright?
    If vaccinations had zero statistical efficacy, yes. It would be exactly comparable.
    Quite. I find the comparison extraordinary, as WG is demanding "no plausible doubt" - which is pretty much the assumption when some murderer is convicted, *by definition*, at the trial. Even when there was at at the time, never mind later.

    And I can't see why the unfortunate RC Bishop of Durham is being brought into the conversation.
    When you have a mass vaccination campaign, you know for a fact that a small percentage of people will die as a direct consequence.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-65321937

    The death of a psychologist after his Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid-19 jab was due to "unintended complications of the vaccine", an inquest has ruled.

    Stephen Wright, an NHS employee in south-east London, died 10 days after his first dose in January 2021, senior coroner Andrew Harris found.

    Dr Wright, 32, suffered a blood clot to the brain after receiving the vaccine.
    Given that the error rate in a murder trial is vastly higher, your comparison is not only crass but useless.
    How many innocent people were executed in the decade before the abolition of the death penalty? A lot fewer than were killed by the covid vaccine.
    How many people went to court accused?
    If the risk of putting innocent people on trial is also intolerable then we should abolish the judicial system altogether.
    Whoever is operating the @williamglenn spoof account today is a bit over the top. Bring back the Euro-Federalist guy.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,041
    GIN1138 said:

    I see Kemi Badenoch has one of those big style makeover feature things in the Times.

    Which suggests Rupert has decided she’s next.

    Remember I've been on the Kemi bandwagon for a couple of years! :D
    Commiserations.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,702
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Harper said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Indeed. If we had the death penalty for drug trafficking into the uk much of the uk drug trade would be wiped out overnight. At present prison is seen as an acceptable cost of doing business.
    Back in my day on a Saturday we watched and smiled, because "Saturday is Tiswas, never a day to miss 'cos Saturday is Tiswas day".

    Now Saturday is house troll day. We don't want your death penalty over here matey boy!
    I fear it may be coming. Drugs like Fentanyl and Tranq are so dangerous, nations may have to start executing the dealers

    110,000 Americans died of a drug overdose last year. Horrendous. If you could save those lives by hanging 1000 dealers, would you take the offer? Many would

    I suspect Salvador will export its policy
    In the UK and the US our drug dealers are feted. Despite Purdue Pharma promoting Oxycontin to the detriment of the population at large we make the Sacklurs and their like patrons of the arts.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/books/review/empire-of-pain-sackler-dynasty-patrick-radden-keefe.html
    The story of the Sacklers is an absolute disgrace, I agree, but it is not fundemantal to the rise of Fentanyl and now Tranq

    People who never went near Oxycontin or any of those horrible legal opioids are dying of Fent and Tranq

    110,000 Americans in a year. Like a really bad war; like two Vietnams, every year
    The problem with the OxyContin story, is that it’s a massive setback for those who want to see a more liberal approach to drugs, when a legal drug causes so many societal issues.

    As as been said many times before, you have to have an extreme approach to be successful. Either you sell everything in pharmacies and spend the taxes on rehab facilities, or you go down the Singapore route of high sentences for first offenders. The “war on drugs” route, as seen in most of the west, simply doesn’t work.
    Yep, it's one or the other

    I used to be libertarian: legalise everything, tax it for the benefit of the state. Having now personally witnessed what the latest drugs are doing to the USA, I have almost entirely changed my mind. Singapore might be the only solution

    America cannot tolerate 110,000 deaths from OD every year, and getting worse...
    Most of the nastiest drugs are as a result of prohibition - pack more punch into a smaller volume, insanely dangerous home chemistry etc.

    Not to mention an opiates crisis driven by doctors being paid to prescribe as much as possible.

    Yes the Oxy problem was a specifically American problem, because of the unique way prescription drugs are advertised and marketed in that country.

    If you could just go and get generic heroin or morphine from the pharmacy for a few bucks, it would ease many of the current issues in the States.
    This is wrong

    Fentanyl is not just 50 times stronger than smack, it offers a way more profound high. A more intense oblivion - so users say

    So even if you sell heroin at the corner shop the junkies will still seek out the better drug
    Well sell them all in the corner shop then. At least people will know what exactly they’re taking, most of the deaths are from unintentional overdoses.
    Great. Then everyone dies. Brilliant


    Honestly these drugs are simply too powerful to be allowed. And remember Tranq is even worse and there will be still nastier drugs coming down the line once they get deepmind to create new compounds

    The legalisation idea has run out of road. It no longer works
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,041

    .

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    Other way round for me.

    Democracy should be about accurately representing the will of the people. There are arguments to be made about liberalism and the dangers of the tyranny of the majority, i.e. we shouldn't bring back hanging just because 51% of people approve of it.

    But in a democratic system, if a policy is overwhelmingly unpopular, a politician - as a representative of the people - shouldn't be trying to force it through.

    At best, we can get rid of them at the next election and vote in someone more aligned to the majority view. At worst, our democratic institutions aren't enough to act as a check on this. For example, the way FPTP delivers majorities on a minority of votes, or the enormous structural democratic deficit at the heart of the EU.

    TL;DR. Democracy should be about representing the will of the people. It should not be about politicians pursuing their pet projects. Unless you're arguing that we don't know what's good for us, in which case we
    might as well have done with it and appoint a dictator.
    You are getting into the whole Burkean argument of representatives vs delgates

    If a democratic leader is just a delegate what’s the point. Might as well have a cat. They are cheaper, more consistent and cleaner.
    I don’t know that they’re more consistent. Yesterday, my tomcat loved Bonkers cat treats. Today, he refuses to eat them.
    Plain Bonkers ?
  • Options
    HarperHarper Posts: 197

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Harper said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Indeed. If we had the death penalty for drug trafficking into the uk much of the uk drug trade would be wiped out overnight. At present prison is seen as an acceptable cost of doing business.
    Back in my day on a Saturday we watched and smiled, because "Saturday is Tiswas, never a day to miss 'cos Saturday is Tiswas day".

    Now Saturday is house troll day. We don't want your death penalty over here matey boy!
    I fear it may be coming. Drugs like Fentanyl and Tranq are so dangerous, nations may have to start executing the dealers

    110,000 Americans died of a drug overdose last year. Horrendous. If you could save those lives by hanging 1000 dealers, would you take the offer? Many would

    I suspect Salvador will export its policy
    In the UK and the US our drug dealers are feted. Despite Purdue Pharma promoting Oxycontin to the detriment of the population at large we make the Sacklurs and their like patrons of the arts.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/books/review/empire-of-pain-sackler-dynasty-patrick-radden-keefe.html
    The story of the Sacklers is an absolute disgrace, I agree, but it is not fundemantal to the rise of Fentanyl and now Tranq

    People who never went near Oxycontin or any of those horrible legal opioids are dying of Fent and Tranq

    110,000 Americans in a year. Like a really bad war; like two Vietnams, every year
    The problem with the OxyContin story, is that it’s a massive setback for those who want to see a more liberal approach to drugs, when a legal drug causes so many societal issues.

    As as been said many times before, you have to have an extreme approach to be successful. Either you sell everything in pharmacies and spend the taxes on rehab facilities, or you go down the Singapore route of high sentences for first offenders. The “war on drugs” route, as seen in most of the west, simply doesn’t work.
    Yep, it's one or the other

    I used to be libertarian: legalise everything, tax it for the benefit of the state. Having now personally witnessed what the latest drugs are doing to the USA, I have almost entirely changed my mind. Singapore might be the only solution

    America cannot tolerate 110,000 deaths from OD every year, and getting worse...
    Most of the nastiest drugs are as a result of prohibition - pack more punch into a smaller volume, insanely dangerous home chemistry etc.

    Not to mention an opiates crisis driven by doctors being paid to prescribe as much as possible.

    So either legalise or have the death penalty.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,666
    edited February 10
    GIN1138 said:

    Even if it wan’t Trump, who’ll be an easy opponent for the Dems with his back catalogue, I still think it will be plain sailing for Biden once it all starts properly.

    What? He can't string a coherent sentence together and clearly has no idea where he is or what he's going.The dam has broken and the media, which have hitherto been largely covering it all up, will now be remorseless. It will be like a pack pf wolves devouring a stricken animal. It's going to be brutal to watch.

    So Biden's finished. Done. He may not even finish his first term depending how how hard the media pack goes for him.

    The only question is what the Dems do now to get themselves out of the situation they've got themselves into.
    Rubbish.

    Media always do this. Especially in football. Five wins in a row and the managers the goat. Five without a win and it’s crisis time. A few weeks later, goat again. Media only do it becuase they love the “comeback” headlines and story, maybe it’s that one which sells copy.

    This “fuckmule” has only blown up because of how Biden got away with his breach, it’s only given boost because of comments in that report, and like all vulture frenzies it will burn itself out without more red meat examples to go on.

    Also remember, Trump’s camp is cannily aware of this as well. If one candidate falls for being old and mangling sentences, where’s the media coming for their next victim?

    Look at your post and reflect it against Politics is about hollowing out your opponent for your own knockout punch, not losing them for a fresh, unhollowed out opponent.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,257
    @katyballs

    ‘It could be our worst week yet. If we’re unlucky, next week could see inflation rise on Wednesday, a recession named on Thursday and two by-elections lost by Friday,’ says a government insider.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,041
    Sandpit said:

    The time to parachute Michelle Obama into the race has been and gone. This leaves aside the fact that she has reiterated time and time again that she’s not interested.

    It is going to be really hard for the Democrats to legitimise a candidate at the convention if the nominee isn’t Biden. Expect Trump to run with the “establishment stitch up” narrative - they didn’t even let you choose.

    The only candidate that I think manages to mitigate that is Harris because of her role as No.2 on the ticket. Even more so if she were to assume the presidency beforehand.

    Just to clarify: my suggestion of Michelle Obama was not serious.
    She’s third favourite to be next president!
    So was Rick Santorum once.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,211
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    I think Bidens record as President is superb, maybe best of my lifetime.

    But what Macron has done is really impressive. To set up your own party and dominate French politics from the centre is pretty unique.
    Biden has handed Afghanistan back to the Taliban, Putin was able to invade Ukraine on his watch, he has not been able to bring about peace in Gaza, US interest rates are still sky high and the US deficit is over half a billion dollars now as he spends more and more. Plus he has no real control over the level of migrants coming over the Mexican border.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/11/us-deficit-tops-half-a-trillion-dollars-in-the-first-quarter-of-fiscal-year.html

    He is certainly not superb, in fact he is probably the weakest Democratic President since Carter, however if he faces Trump again he may still win. Whereas if Haley was his opponent in November he would definitely be heading for the exit door
    Afghanistan - I think he took the necessary and tough decision (implemented poorly from a press perspective). We can see now that all our efforts to build an afghan state were largely useless and Taliban was taking over whenever US left.

    Pulling out has certainly helped free up resources to support Ukraine - I would say he has struck a good balance between defending Europe & not starting WWIII.

    Gaza is a disaster and Biden needs to change his policy.

    On the economy, he has managed to bring down inflation without crashing the economy. Economic growth is good. I'm particularly impressed we finally have a dem president who ignores Larry summers.
    The US didn't need to leave, it could have kept a presence there indefinitely after 9/11 to shore up the elected government and ensure terrorists did not establish bases in Afghanistan again. It was Boris who led efforts to send weapons to Ukraine pre invasion, not Biden.

    On Gaza Biden has now said Israel's response goes too far but he is powerless while Netanyahu is focused on eliminating Hamas.

    Interest rates are still high and the deficit getting higher
    You're essentially wrong on Ukraine. The U.S. efforts both to deter Russia, and get Ukraine to prepare for an invasion in the twelve months before it happened, were extensive.
    I've posted the account at least half a dozen times before.

    And you're wrong on the deficit, which is likely to fall this year. Without the Trump tax cut for the wealthiest, it's just about possible they'd be in surplus.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/11/us-deficit-tops-half-a-trillion-dollars-in-the-first-quarter-of-fiscal-year.html
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,150
    ?

    A candidate officially found to have severe cognitive difficulties suffers?

    Who would have thought it?
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,975

    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Western populations aren't too happy when people get wrongly imprisoned - see for instance the post office situation.
    We can start with the low hanging fruit: execute multiple murderers where there is no plausible doubt about their guilt.
    It amazes me how many people have seemingly never heard of Timothy Evans or the Birmingham Six.
    That's like arguing against vaccinations because some people will have fatal adverse events.

    Have you heard of Stephen Wright?
    If vaccinations had zero statistical efficacy, yes. It would be exactly comparable.
    Quite. I find the comparison extraordinary, as WG is demanding "no plausible doubt" - which is pretty much the assumption when some murderer is convicted, *by definition*, at the trial. Even when there was at at the time, never mind later.

    And I can't see why the unfortunate RC Bishop of Durham is being brought into the conversation.
    When you have a mass vaccination campaign, you know for a fact that a small percentage of people will die as a direct consequence.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-65321937

    The death of a psychologist after his Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid-19 jab was due to "unintended complications of the vaccine", an inquest has ruled.

    Stephen Wright, an NHS employee in south-east London, died 10 days after his first dose in January 2021, senior coroner Andrew Harris found.

    Dr Wright, 32, suffered a blood clot to the brain after receiving the vaccine.
    But you're comparing apples with bullshit here. There is simply no correlation (other than a death) between an erroneous state execution and an individual adverse reaction to a mass vaccination.
    The connection is that there are always risks in life.

    Some people think that the risk of being murdered by an aslyum seeker is worth it to live in the kind of country that welcomes asylum seekers, but it's not much consolation to the people who've paid with their lives.
    Do you have any evidence that asylum seekers kill more people than non-asylum seekers? A couple of days ago, I linked to various studies showing immigrants have about the same or lower crime rates.
    Is it a tolerable risk to have people like the Reading park stabber in the country? Why is that ok, but the risk of a miscarriage of justice is not ok?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-55622476
    I asked if you had any evidence that asylum seekers kill more people than non-asylum seekers. The answer appears to be no. There are about 4500 stabbing a year in the UK (going off hospital statistics). The overwhelming majority of those are by non-asylum seekers.

    We should work to reduce the risk of stabbings, absolutely. Stopping asylum seekers isn’t going to achieve that. There are many important issues to debate around asylum seekers, you can have views that are more liberal or more draconian towards asylum seekers. But you’re just being silly.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,702
    I read the Kemi puff piece in the Times. Nah. She’s not IT

    I wanted to believe, I agree with her on woke, but that seems to be the only idea she has. Otherwise nothing much

    Also she is REALLY Nigerian. By that I don’t mean someone of Nigerian birth or ancestry can’t be PM, it’s more that she sounds deeply attached to her Nigerian identity and has lots of family there and might easily go back if it suits and the situation changes

    I’d rather my British PM be absolutely British and committed to Britain, thanks

  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,813

    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Western populations aren't too happy when people get wrongly imprisoned - see for instance the post office situation.
    We can start with the low hanging fruit: execute multiple murderers where there is no plausible doubt about their guilt.
    It amazes me how many people have seemingly never heard of Timothy Evans or the Birmingham Six.
    That's like arguing against vaccinations because some people will have fatal adverse events.

    Have you heard of Stephen Wright?
    No it isn't. People can choose to not get a vaccine. People can't opt out of being executed falsely
  • Options
    GIN1138 said:

    Even if it wan’t Trump, who’ll be an easy opponent for the Dems with his back catalogue, I still think it will be plain sailing for Biden once it all starts properly.

    What? He can't string a coherent sentence together and clearly has no idea where he is or what he's going.The dam has broken and the media, which have hitherto been largely covering it all up, will now be remorseless. It will be like a pack pf wolves devouring a stricken animal. It's going to be brutal to watch.

    So Biden's finished. Done. He may not even finish his first term depending how how hard the media pack goes for him.

    The only question is what the Dems do now to get themselves out of the situation they've got themselves into.
    Hyperbole but the more focus on Biden's marbles, the more that people will ask the same questions of Trump who is only half a yard behind the President. It may well be that neither stands come November.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,666

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    Other way round for me.

    Democracy should be about accurately representing the will of the people. There are arguments to be made about liberalism and the dangers of the tyranny of the majority, i.e. we shouldn't bring back hanging just because 51% of people approve of it.

    But in a democratic system, if a policy is overwhelmingly unpopular, a politician - as a representative of the people - shouldn't be trying to force it through.

    At best, we can get rid of them at the next election and vote in someone more aligned to the majority view. At worst, our democratic institutions aren't enough to act as a check on this. For example, the way FPTP delivers majorities on a minority of votes, or the enormous structural democratic deficit at the heart of the EU.

    TL;DR. Democracy should be about representing the will of the people. It should not be about politicians pursuing their pet projects. Unless you're arguing that we don't know what's good for us, in which case we
    might as well have done with it and appoint a dictator.
    You are getting into the whole Burkean argument of representatives vs delgates

    If a democratic leader is just a delegate what’s the point. Might as well have a cat. They are cheaper, more consistent and cleaner.
    Democracy is all about helping minority positions into decisions and actions taken. A 52-48 win for tea over coffee, so we all must drink tea, is NEVER Democracy.
  • Options
    HarperHarper Posts: 197
    Leon said:

    I read the Kemi puff piece in the Times. Nah. She’s not IT

    I wanted to believe, I agree with her on woke, but that seems to be the only idea she has. Otherwise nothing much

    Also she is REALLY Nigerian. By that I don’t mean someone of Nigerian birth or ancestry can’t be PM, it’s more that she sounds deeply attached to her Nigerian identity and has lots of family there and might easily go back if it suits and the situation changes

    I’d rather my British PM be absolutely British and committed to Britain, thanks

    Thats an argument for Sunak not to be pm.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,931
    Scott_xP said:

    @katyballs

    ‘It could be our worst week yet. If we’re unlucky, next week could see inflation rise on Wednesday, a recession named on Thursday and two by-elections lost by Friday,’ says a government insider.

    Getting fatalistic in the bunker, lol! 😂
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,975
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Harper said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Indeed. If we had the death penalty for drug trafficking into the uk much of the uk drug trade would be wiped out overnight. At present prison is seen as an acceptable cost of doing business.
    Back in my day on a Saturday we watched and smiled, because "Saturday is Tiswas, never a day to miss 'cos Saturday is Tiswas day".

    Now Saturday is house troll day. We don't want your death penalty over here matey boy!
    I fear it may be coming. Drugs like Fentanyl and Tranq are so dangerous, nations may have to start executing the dealers

    110,000 Americans died of a drug overdose last year. Horrendous. If you could save those lives by hanging 1000 dealers, would you take the offer? Many would

    I suspect Salvador will export its policy
    In the UK and the US our drug dealers are feted. Despite Purdue Pharma promoting Oxycontin to the detriment of the population at large we make the Sacklurs and their like patrons of the arts.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/books/review/empire-of-pain-sackler-dynasty-patrick-radden-keefe.html
    The story of the Sacklers is an absolute disgrace, I agree, but it is not fundemantal to the rise of Fentanyl and now Tranq

    People who never went near Oxycontin or any of those horrible legal opioids are dying of Fent and Tranq

    110,000 Americans in a year. Like a really bad war; like two Vietnams, every year
    The problem with the OxyContin story, is that it’s a massive setback for those who want to see a more liberal approach to drugs, when a legal drug causes so many societal issues.

    As as been said many times before, you have to have an extreme approach to be successful. Either you sell everything in pharmacies and spend the taxes on rehab facilities, or you go down the Singapore route of high sentences for first offenders. The “war on drugs” route, as seen in most of the west, simply doesn’t work.
    Yep, it's one or the other

    I used to be libertarian: legalise everything, tax it for the benefit of the state. Having now personally witnessed what the latest drugs are doing to the USA, I have almost entirely changed my mind. Singapore might be the only solution

    America cannot tolerate 110,000 deaths from OD every year, and getting worse...
    Most of the nastiest drugs are as a result of prohibition - pack more punch into a smaller volume, insanely dangerous home chemistry etc.

    Not to mention an opiates crisis driven by doctors being paid to prescribe as much as possible.

    Yes the Oxy problem was a specifically American problem, because of the unique way prescription drugs are advertised and marketed in that country.

    If you could just go and get generic heroin or morphine from the pharmacy for a few bucks, it would ease many of the current issues in the States.
    This is wrong

    Fentanyl is not just 50 times stronger than smack, it offers a way more profound high. A more intense oblivion - so users say

    So even if you sell heroin at the corner shop the junkies will still seek out the better drug
    Well sell them all in the corner shop then. At least people will know what exactly they’re taking, most of the deaths are from unintentional overdoses.
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Harper said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Indeed. If we had the death penalty for drug trafficking into the uk much of the uk drug trade would be wiped out overnight. At present prison is seen as an acceptable cost of doing business.
    Back in my day on a Saturday we watched and smiled, because "Saturday is Tiswas, never a day to miss 'cos Saturday is Tiswas day".

    Now Saturday is house troll day. We don't want your death penalty over here matey boy!
    I fear it may be coming. Drugs like Fentanyl and Tranq are so dangerous, nations may have to start executing the dealers

    110,000 Americans died of a drug overdose last year. Horrendous. If you could save those lives by hanging 1000 dealers, would you take the offer? Many would

    I suspect Salvador will export its policy
    In the UK and the US our drug dealers are feted. Despite Purdue Pharma promoting Oxycontin to the detriment of the population at large we make the Sacklurs and their like patrons of the arts.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/books/review/empire-of-pain-sackler-dynasty-patrick-radden-keefe.html
    The story of the Sacklers is an absolute disgrace, I agree, but it is not fundemantal to the rise of Fentanyl and now Tranq

    People who never went near Oxycontin or any of those horrible legal opioids are dying of Fent and Tranq

    110,000 Americans in a year. Like a really bad war; like two Vietnams, every year
    The problem with the OxyContin story, is that it’s a massive setback for those who want to see a more liberal approach to drugs, when a legal drug causes so many societal issues.

    As as been said many times before, you have to have an extreme approach to be successful. Either you sell everything in pharmacies and spend the taxes on rehab facilities, or you go down the Singapore route of high sentences for first offenders. The “war on drugs” route, as seen in most of the west, simply doesn’t work.
    Yep, it's one or the other

    I used to be libertarian: legalise everything, tax it for the benefit of the state. Having now personally witnessed what the latest drugs are doing to the USA, I have almost entirely changed my mind. Singapore might be the only solution

    America cannot tolerate 110,000 deaths from OD every year, and getting worse...
    Most of the nastiest drugs are as a result of prohibition - pack more punch into a smaller volume, insanely dangerous home chemistry etc.

    Not to mention an opiates crisis driven by doctors being paid to prescribe as much as possible.

    Yes the Oxy problem was a specifically American problem, because of the unique way prescription drugs are advertised and marketed in that country.

    If you could just go and get generic heroin or morphine from the pharmacy for a few bucks, it would ease many of the current issues in the States.
    This is wrong

    Fentanyl is not just 50 times stronger than smack, it offers a way more profound high. A more intense oblivion - so users say

    So even if you sell heroin at the corner shop the junkies will still seek out the better drug
    Well sell them all in the corner shop then. At least people will know what exactly they’re taking, most of the deaths are from unintentional overdoses.
    Fentanyl has many routine clinical uses and is regularly prescribed in the NHS. My Mum was on fentanyl patches for >1 year. It was effective in controlling the pain she was suffering and you wouldn’t have known she was on it talking to her. Some of the more journalistic stories about it can give a misleading impression that it is uniquely powerful or addictive or dangerous.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,975
    Nigelb said:

    .

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    Other way round for me.

    Democracy should be about accurately representing the will of the people. There are arguments to be made about liberalism and the dangers of the tyranny of the majority, i.e. we shouldn't bring back hanging just because 51% of people approve of it.

    But in a democratic system, if a policy is overwhelmingly unpopular, a politician - as a representative of the people - shouldn't be trying to force it through.

    At best, we can get rid of them at the next election and vote in someone more aligned to the majority view. At worst, our democratic institutions aren't enough to act as a check on this. For example, the way FPTP delivers majorities on a minority of votes, or the enormous structural democratic deficit at the heart of the EU.

    TL;DR. Democracy should be about representing the will of the people. It should not be about politicians pursuing their pet projects. Unless you're arguing that we don't know what's good for us, in which case we
    might as well have done with it and appoint a dictator.
    You are getting into the whole Burkean argument of representatives vs delgates

    If a democratic leader is just a delegate what’s the point. Might as well have a cat. They are cheaper, more consistent and cleaner.
    I don’t know that they’re more consistent. Yesterday, my tomcat loved Bonkers cat treats. Today, he refuses to eat them.
    Plain Bonkers ?
    Catnip, chicken and cheddar flavour actually…
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,041

    GIN1138 said:

    Even if it wan’t Trump, who’ll be an easy opponent for the Dems with his back catalogue, I still think it will be plain sailing for Biden once it all starts properly.

    What? He can't string a coherent sentence together and clearly has no idea where he is or what he's going.The dam has broken and the media, which have hitherto been largely covering it all up, will now be remorseless. It will be like a pack pf wolves devouring a stricken animal. It's going to be brutal to watch.

    So Biden's finished. Done. He may not even finish his first term depending how how hard the media pack goes for him.

    The only question is what the Dems do now to get themselves out of the situation they've got themselves into.
    Rubbish.

    Media always do this. Especially in football. Five wins in a row and the managers the goat. Five without a win and it’s crisis time. A few weeks later, goat again. Media only do it becuase they love the “comeback” headlines and story, maybe it’s that one which sells copy.

    This “fuckmule” has only blown up because of how Biden got away with his breach, it’s only given boost because of comments in that report, and like all vulture frenzies it will burn itself out without more red meat examples to go on.

    Also remember, Trump’s camp is cannily aware of this as well. If one candidate falls for being old and mangling sentences, where’s the media coming for their next victim?

    Look at your post and reflect it against Politics is about hollowing out your opponent for your own knockout punch, not losing them for a fresh, unhollowed out opponent.
    I'm not sure you're right on this occasion.

    The media have bought the narrative, and every time Biden gaffes - which is hardly infrequent - they'll rehash it.

    And there is then the genuine question of how much his faculties have in reality declined - and what shape he'll be in by late summer.

    I am probably one of Biden's strongest proponents, but I just don't know how this plays out.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,702
    Harper said:

    Leon said:

    I read the Kemi puff piece in the Times. Nah. She’s not IT

    I wanted to believe, I agree with her on woke, but that seems to be the only idea she has. Otherwise nothing much

    Also she is REALLY Nigerian. By that I don’t mean someone of Nigerian birth or ancestry can’t be PM, it’s more that she sounds deeply attached to her Nigerian identity and has lots of family there and might easily go back if it suits and the situation changes

    I’d rather my British PM be absolutely British and committed to Britain, thanks

    Thats an argument for Sunak not to be pm.
    And people have used it - his non dom Indian wife etc

    However he was born in the UK and I sense a genuine attachment to the UK in Sunak. I’m not sure I get that from Badenoch

    She comes across as an ideologue who would be quite happy pushing her cause in any western nation. Or Nigeria. The idea matters more than the country
  • Options

    GIN1138 said:

    I see Kemi Badenoch has one of those big style makeover feature things in the Times.

    Which suggests Rupert has decided she’s next.

    Remember I've been on the Kemi bandwagon for a couple of years! :D
    I’m suspecting now Kemi will be next Tory leader.

    Great News for Starmer and Labour. She’s so utterly arrogant and abusive, and really into all that MAGA woke war stuff.

    But that would be the least of her problems. How is she going work with Braverman and the others? Remember Braverman was not sacked by Liz for a security lapse, it was because she was working with backbenchers to defeat not just Truss policy, but the policy of the government she was in. The only news Badenoch Shadow Cabinet will make will be all about personality and factional conflicts, suppressing their poll rating the whole term.

    Badenoch will be bad news for the Conservatives. They are not coming back to sanity so we can vote for them anytime soon. 😕
    What's her lane in the 2024/5 leadership election?

    I suspect it's "strong right-wingery tempered by realism". And that loses to "strong right-wingery with no concessions to objective reality" (see Truss-Sunak). Unless she can engineer a final two where her opponent is a Centrist, she loses. And I'm not sure she can.

    Two other things.

    One is that, yes, many bits of her life story are impressive. But there is also a streak of "global elite who happens to have landed in the UK". She's not as clueless about the country as Sunak, but it's a problem. An occupational hazard of being Conservative is becoming someone who sees themselves as a self-made (wo)man who is entitled to worship their creator.

    The other is that, once she is off the culture war stuff, she's not up to much. See her failure with the Post Office stuff.

    Not that it matters in a way. The next Conservative leader is more likely than not to resign after losing in 2028. If Badenoch is that leader, her successor will probably be even more batso.

    Things can get a lot worse yet.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,702

    GIN1138 said:

    I see Kemi Badenoch has one of those big style makeover feature things in the Times.

    Which suggests Rupert has decided she’s next.

    Remember I've been on the Kemi bandwagon for a couple of years! :D
    I’m suspecting now Kemi will be next Tory leader.

    Great News for Starmer and Labour. She’s so utterly arrogant and abusive, and really into all that MAGA woke war stuff.

    But that would be the least of her problems. How is she going work with Braverman and the others? Remember Braverman was not sacked by Liz for a security lapse, it was because she was working with backbenchers to defeat not just Truss policy, but the policy of the government she was in. The only news Badenoch Shadow Cabinet will make will be all about personality and factional conflicts, suppressing their poll rating the whole term.

    Badenoch will be bad news for the Conservatives. They are not coming back to sanity so we can vote for them anytime soon. 😕
    What's her lane in the 2024/5 leadership election?

    I suspect it's "strong right-wingery tempered by realism". And that loses to "strong right-wingery with no concessions to objective reality" (see Truss-Sunak). Unless she can engineer a final two where her opponent is a Centrist, she loses. And I'm not sure she can.

    Two other things.

    One is that, yes, many bits of her life story are impressive. But there is also a streak of "global elite who happens to have landed in the UK". She's not as clueless about the country as Sunak, but it's a problem. An occupational hazard of being Conservative is becoming someone who sees themselves as a self-made (wo)man who is entitled to worship their creator.

    The other is that, once she is off the culture war stuff, she's not up to much. See her failure with the Post Office stuff.

    Not that it matters in a way. The next Conservative leader is more likely than not to resign after losing in 2028. If Badenoch is that leader, her successor will probably be even more batso.

    Things can get a lot worse yet.
    We have diagnosed the same problem in Kemi. She’s like an anti woke Davos woman

    Braverman seems much more authentically British
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,041
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......

    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    I think Bidens record as President is superb, maybe best of my lifetime.

    But what Macron has done is really impressive. To set up your own party and dominate French politics from the centre is pretty unique.
    Biden has handed Afghanistan back to the Taliban, Putin was able to invade Ukraine on his watch, he has not been able to bring about peace in Gaza, US interest rates are still sky high and the US deficit is over half a billion dollars now as he spends more and more. Plus he has no real control over the level of migrants coming over the Mexican border.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/11/us-deficit-tops-half-a-trillion-dollars-in-the-first-quarter-of-fiscal-year.html

    He is certainly not superb, in fact he is probably the weakest Democratic President since Carter, however if he faces Trump again he may still win. Whereas if Haley was his opponent in November he would definitely be heading for the exit door
    Afghanistan - I think he took the necessary and tough decision (implemented poorly from a press perspective). We can see now that all our efforts to build an afghan state were largely useless and Taliban was taking over whenever US left.

    Pulling out has certainly helped free up resources to support Ukraine - I would say he has struck a good balance between defending Europe & not starting WWIII.

    Gaza is a disaster and Biden needs to change his policy.

    On the economy, he has managed to bring down inflation without crashing the economy. Economic growth is good. I'm particularly impressed we finally have a dem president who ignores Larry summers.
    The US didn't need to leave, it could have kept a presence there indefinitely after 9/11 to shore up the elected government and ensure terrorists did not establish bases in Afghanistan again. It was Boris who led efforts to send weapons to Ukraine pre invasion, not Biden.

    On Gaza Biden has now said Israel's response goes too far but he is powerless while Netanyahu is focused on eliminating Hamas.

    Interest rates are still high and the deficit getting higher
    You're essentially wrong on Ukraine. The U.S. efforts both to deter Russia, and get Ukraine to prepare for an invasion in the twelve months before it happened, were extensive.
    I've posted the account at least half a dozen times before.

    And you're wrong on the deficit, which is likely to fall this year. Without the Trump tax cut for the wealthiest, it's just about possible they'd be in surplus.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/11/us-deficit-tops-half-a-trillion-dollars-in-the-first-quarter-of-fiscal-year.html
    Indeed, but it will still fall this year.
    https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/cbo-projects-a-188-billion-decrease-in-this-years-federal-budget-deficit-but-debt-would-then-grow

    I slightly exaggerated about the Trump tax cuts - but not all that much.
    https://www.americanprogress.org/article/tax-cuts-are-primarily-responsible-for-the-increasing-debt-ratio/



  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 702

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    Other way round for me.

    Democracy should be about accurately representing the will of the people. There are arguments to be made about liberalism and the dangers of the tyranny of the majority, i.e. we shouldn't bring back hanging just because 51% of people approve of it.

    But in a democratic system, if a policy is overwhelmingly unpopular, a politician - as a representative of the people - shouldn't be trying to force it through.

    At best, we can get rid of them at the next election and vote in someone more aligned to the majority view. At worst, our democratic institutions aren't enough to act as a check on this. For example, the way FPTP delivers majorities on a minority of votes, or the enormous structural democratic deficit at the heart of the EU.

    TL;DR. Democracy should be about representing the will of the people. It should not be about politicians pursuing their pet projects. Unless you're arguing that we don't know what's good for us, in which case we
    might as well have done with it and appoint a dictator.
    You are getting into the whole Burkean argument of representatives vs delgates

    If a democratic leader is just a delegate what’s the point. Might as well have a cat. They are cheaper, more consistent and cleaner.
    Mm. In Soviet communism, the soviets were based on delegates rather than representatives, didn't they? "A higher form of democracy" they might have been, but I'm not sure they did a particularly good job at reflecting the will of the people...

    The 20mph stuff was number 9 in a list of 12 "Welsh Labour's Promises to Wales" ahead of the 2021 Senedd election. Standing on that manifesto, they achieved a swing of around 5% towards them.

    Showing a bit of determination in navigating the politics around getting a manifesto promise implemented is a great example of democracy working as intended, I would have thought.
  • Options
    HarperHarper Posts: 197
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @katyballs

    ‘It could be our worst week yet. If we’re unlucky, next week could see inflation rise on Wednesday, a recession named on Thursday and two by-elections lost by Friday,’ says a government insider.

    Getting fatalistic in the bunker, lol! 😂
    Nah they will fiddle it so the economy shows growth of 0.1%. Then Hunt will boast about our resilient economy.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,975
    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Even if it wan’t Trump, who’ll be an easy opponent for the Dems with his back catalogue, I still think it will be plain sailing for Biden once it all starts properly.

    What? He can't string a coherent sentence together and clearly has no idea where he is or what he's going.The dam has broken and the media, which have hitherto been largely covering it all up, will now be remorseless. It will be like a pack pf wolves devouring a stricken animal. It's going to be brutal to watch.

    So Biden's finished. Done. He may not even finish his first term depending how how hard the media pack goes for him.

    The only question is what the Dems do now to get themselves out of the situation they've got themselves into.
    Rubbish.

    Media always do this. Especially in football. Five wins in a row and the managers the goat. Five without a win and it’s crisis time. A few weeks later, goat again. Media only do it becuase they love the “comeback” headlines and story, maybe it’s that one which sells copy.

    This “fuckmule” has only blown up because of how Biden got away with his breach, it’s only given boost because of comments in that report, and like all vulture frenzies it will burn itself out without more red meat examples to go on.

    Also remember, Trump’s camp is cannily aware of this as well. If one candidate falls for being old and mangling sentences, where’s the media coming for their next victim?

    Look at your post and reflect it against Politics is about hollowing out your opponent for your own knockout punch, not losing them for a fresh, unhollowed out opponent.
    I'm not sure you're right on this occasion.

    The media have bought the narrative, and every time Biden gaffes - which is hardly infrequent - they'll rehash it.

    And there is then the genuine question of how much his faculties have in reality declined - and what shape he'll be in by late summer.

    I am probably one of Biden's strongest proponents, but I just don't know how this plays out.
    I too have no idea how it plays out. We are in uncharted territory, although that’s more the unprecedented nature of Trump than the unprecedented nature of Biden. So, as we’re kinda meant to be about betting, what’s the answer? Make trading bets. There’s been a big shift away from Biden. I think the market is overreacting, so maybe bet on Biden in order to lay when his odds improve again. Michelle Obama at 7% may be worth laying. The counter-argument is that you are locking your money up for several months for a poor return, but as a trading bet, you can probably realise your investment much sooner when her odds move out again. If Biden is in trouble, then Harris is undervalued.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,702
    edited February 10

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Harper said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Indeed. If we had the death penalty for drug trafficking into the uk much of the uk drug trade would be wiped out overnight. At present prison is seen as an acceptable cost of doing business.
    Back in my day on a Saturday we watched and smiled, because "Saturday is Tiswas, never a day to miss 'cos Saturday is Tiswas day".

    Now Saturday is house troll day. We don't want your death penalty over here matey boy!
    I fear it may be coming. Drugs like Fentanyl and Tranq are so dangerous, nations may have to start executing the dealers

    110,000 Americans died of a drug overdose last year. Horrendous. If you could save those lives by hanging 1000 dealers, would you take the offer? Many would

    I suspect Salvador will export its policy
    In the UK and the US our drug dealers are feted. Despite Purdue Pharma promoting Oxycontin to the detriment of the population at large we make the Sacklurs and their like patrons of the arts.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/books/review/empire-of-pain-sackler-dynasty-patrick-radden-keefe.html
    The story of the Sacklers is an absolute disgrace, I agree, but it is not fundemantal to the rise of Fentanyl and now Tranq

    People who never went near Oxycontin or any of those horrible legal opioids are dying of Fent and Tranq

    110,000 Americans in a year. Like a really bad war; like two Vietnams, every year
    The problem with the OxyContin story, is that it’s a massive setback for those who want to see a more liberal approach to drugs, when a legal drug causes so many societal issues.

    As as been said many times before, you have to have an extreme approach to be successful. Either you sell everything in pharmacies and spend the taxes on rehab facilities, or you go down the Singapore route of high sentences for first offenders. The “war on drugs” route, as seen in most of the west, simply doesn’t work.
    Yep, it's one or the other

    I used to be libertarian: legalise everything, tax it for the benefit of the state. Having now personally witnessed what the latest drugs are doing to the USA, I have almost entirely changed my mind. Singapore might be the only solution

    America cannot tolerate 110,000 deaths from OD every year, and getting worse...
    Most of the nastiest drugs are as a result of prohibition - pack more punch into a smaller volume, insanely dangerous home chemistry etc.

    Not to mention an opiates crisis driven by doctors being paid to prescribe as much as possible.

    Yes the Oxy problem was a specifically American problem, because of the unique way prescription drugs are advertised and marketed in that country.

    If you could just go and get generic heroin or morphine from the pharmacy for a few bucks, it would ease many of the current issues in the States.
    This is wrong

    Fentanyl is not just 50 times stronger than smack, it offers a way more profound high. A more intense oblivion - so users say

    So even if you sell heroin at the corner shop the junkies will still seek out the better drug
    Well sell them all in the corner shop then. At least people will know what exactly they’re taking, most of the deaths are from unintentional overdoses.
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Harper said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Indeed. If we had the death penalty for drug trafficking into the uk much of the uk drug trade would be wiped out overnight. At present prison is seen as an acceptable cost of doing business.
    Back in my day on a Saturday we watched and smiled, because "Saturday is Tiswas, never a day to miss 'cos Saturday is Tiswas day".

    Now Saturday is house troll day. We don't want your death penalty over here matey boy!
    I fear it may be coming. Drugs like Fentanyl and Tranq are so dangerous, nations may have to start executing the dealers

    110,000 Americans died of a drug overdose last year. Horrendous. If you could save those lives by hanging 1000 dealers, would you take the offer? Many would

    I suspect Salvador will export its policy
    In the UK and the US our drug dealers are feted. Despite Purdue Pharma promoting Oxycontin to the detriment of the population at large we make the Sacklurs and their like patrons of the arts.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/books/review/empire-of-pain-sackler-dynasty-patrick-radden-keefe.html
    The story of the Sacklers is an absolute disgrace, I agree, but it is not fundemantal to the rise of Fentanyl and now Tranq

    People who never went near Oxycontin or any of those horrible legal opioids are dying of Fent and Tranq

    110,000 Americans in a year. Like a really bad war; like two Vietnams, every year
    The problem with the OxyContin story, is that it’s a massive setback for those who want to see a more liberal approach to drugs, when a legal drug causes so many societal issues.

    As as been said many times before, you have to have an extreme approach to be successful. Either you sell everything in pharmacies and spend the taxes on rehab facilities, or you go down the Singapore route of high sentences for first offenders. The “war on drugs” route, as seen in most of the west, simply doesn’t work.
    Yep, it's one or the other

    I used to be libertarian: legalise everything, tax it for the benefit of the state. Having now personally witnessed what the latest drugs are doing to the USA, I have almost entirely changed my mind. Singapore might be the only solution

    America cannot tolerate 110,000 deaths from OD every year, and getting worse...
    Most of the nastiest drugs are as a result of prohibition - pack more punch into a smaller volume, insanely dangerous home chemistry etc.

    Not to mention an opiates crisis driven by doctors being paid to prescribe as much as possible.

    Yes the Oxy problem was a specifically American problem, because of the unique way prescription drugs are advertised and marketed in that country.

    If you could just go and get generic heroin or morphine from the pharmacy for a few bucks, it would ease many of the current issues in the States.
    This is wrong

    Fentanyl is not just 50 times stronger than smack, it offers a way more profound high. A more intense oblivion - so users say

    So even if you sell heroin at the corner shop the junkies will still seek out the better drug
    Well sell them all in the corner shop then. At least people will know what exactly they’re taking, most of the deaths are from unintentional overdoses.
    Fentanyl has many routine clinical uses and is regularly prescribed in the NHS. My Mum was on fentanyl patches for >1 year. It was effective in controlling the pain she was suffering and you wouldn’t have known she was on it talking to her. Some of the more journalistic stories about it can give a misleading impression that it is uniquely powerful or addictive or dangerous.
    Omg the stupidity

    On the left, a lethal dose of heroin. On the right, a lethal dose of fentanyl


  • Options
    Interesting polling on labour ditching the 28 billion pa green investment

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1756296095133577411?t=5sYu2wqBkxWs6OgrDYGDBw&s=19
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,702
    “My Mum had her arm cleaned with alcoholic wipes before her injections and she never got drunk”

    - @bondegezou
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,418
    edited February 10

    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Western populations aren't too happy when people get wrongly imprisoned - see for instance the post office situation.
    We can start with the low hanging fruit: execute multiple murderers where there is no plausible doubt about their guilt.
    It amazes me how many people have seemingly never heard of Timothy Evans or the Birmingham Six.
    That's like arguing against vaccinations because some people will have fatal adverse events.

    Have you heard of Stephen Wright?
    If vaccinations had zero statistical efficacy, yes. It would be exactly comparable.
    Quite. I find the comparison extraordinary, as WG is demanding "no plausible doubt" - which is pretty much the assumption when some murderer is convicted, *by definition*, at the trial. Even when there was at at the time, never mind later.

    And I can't see why the unfortunate RC Bishop of Durham is being brought into the conversation.
    When you have a mass vaccination campaign, you know for a fact that a small percentage of people will die as a direct consequence.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-65321937

    The death of a psychologist after his Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid-19 jab was due to "unintended complications of the vaccine", an inquest has ruled.

    Stephen Wright, an NHS employee in south-east London, died 10 days after his first dose in January 2021, senior coroner Andrew Harris found.

    Dr Wright, 32, suffered a blood clot to the brain after receiving the vaccine.
    But you're comparing apples with bullshit here. There is simply no correlation (other than a death) between an erroneous state execution and an individual adverse reaction to a mass vaccination.
    The connection is that there are always risks in life.

    Some people think that the risk of being murdered by an aslyum seeker is worth it to live in the kind of country that welcomes asylum seekers, but it's not much consolation to the people who've paid with their lives.
    My last defence, before I f*** off, because you are really pissing me off.

    Just off the top of my head. Derek Bentley and Timothy Evans, autistic men who did not commit the murders directly, were maliciously executed by the British state. Hanger and flogger Home Secretary David Waddington's pathetic defence of autistic innocent Stefan Kizko would have led to his execution, had capital punishment been available in the 1970s. Ruth Ellis fired the shot, but these days she would have been mitigated by the fact that David Blakeley abused her. None should have died at the hand of the state.

    I won't bother to list the egregious capital miscarriages of justices that have occurred since 1964. But there are lots, thankfully we didn't have the death sentence option, so they merely ruined lives rather than extinguished them in my name. I hope such days never come to pass again.

    I wouldn't choose to rub shoulders with people like you and Leon in the real world, so don't mind if I avoid you both on here. Ludicrous posters, both!
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,542

    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Even if it wan’t Trump, who’ll be an easy opponent for the Dems with his back catalogue, I still think it will be plain sailing for Biden once it all starts properly.

    What? He can't string a coherent sentence together and clearly has no idea where he is or what he's going.The dam has broken and the media, which have hitherto been largely covering it all up, will now be remorseless. It will be like a pack pf wolves devouring a stricken animal. It's going to be brutal to watch.

    So Biden's finished. Done. He may not even finish his first term depending how how hard the media pack goes for him.

    The only question is what the Dems do now to get themselves out of the situation they've got themselves into.
    Rubbish.

    Media always do this. Especially in football. Five wins in a row and the managers the goat. Five without a win and it’s crisis time. A few weeks later, goat again. Media only do it becuase they love the “comeback” headlines and story, maybe it’s that one which sells copy.

    This “fuckmule” has only blown up because of how Biden got away with his breach, it’s only given boost because of comments in that report, and like all vulture frenzies it will burn itself out without more red meat examples to go on.

    Also remember, Trump’s camp is cannily aware of this as well. If one candidate falls for being old and mangling sentences, where’s the media coming for their next victim?

    Look at your post and reflect it against Politics is about hollowing out your opponent for your own knockout punch, not losing them for a fresh, unhollowed out opponent.
    I'm not sure you're right on this occasion.

    The media have bought the narrative, and every time Biden gaffes - which is hardly infrequent - they'll rehash it.

    And there is then the genuine question of how much his faculties have in reality declined - and what shape he'll be in by late summer.

    I am probably one of Biden's strongest proponents, but I just don't know how this plays out.
    I too have no idea how it plays out. We are in uncharted territory, although that’s more the unprecedented nature of Trump than the unprecedented nature of Biden. So, as we’re kinda meant to be about betting, what’s the answer? Make trading bets. There’s been a big shift away from Biden. I think the market is overreacting, so maybe bet on Biden in order to lay when his odds improve again. Michelle Obama at 7% may be worth laying. The counter-argument is that you are locking your money up for several months for a poor return, but as a trading bet, you can probably realise your investment much sooner when her odds move out again. If Biden is in trouble, then Harris is undervalued.
    Yep. I've taken some more on Biden.

    I've also taken tiny nibbles on various Dem figures in case all this explodes and they somehow run a primary or there is a convention decision (see my earlier post).
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,041
    Trump says if he doesn’t win the election, Pennsylvania will cease to exist because ‘they’ will change the name
    https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1756118803501732257

    "I may be old, but I'm not mad."
    #Biden2024
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,532

    TimS said:

    Never understand why some right wingers who are presumably all about the state getting out of our way in other walks of life are so keen to give them the power to kill us. No thanks.

    The primary function of the state is to deliver justice and maintain order, neither of which are served by putting the rights of violent criminals ahead of the rights of law-abiding citizens.
    So what you’re saying is, Trump was right and Biden should shoot him?
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,666

    Interesting polling on labour ditching the 28 billion pa green investment

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1756296095133577411?t=5sYu2wqBkxWs6OgrDYGDBw&s=19

    Early days on that poll.

    What you have got to factor in in, if Labour had left it as it was, the Tories and their client media would have gone to town on it. It was about what was going to happen next, not snapshot of right now.

    And the wall to wall Tory propaganda would have been absolutely right: It was a £140B Green Jihad on the motorist, public finances and tax payers pocket, the state of the economy just can’t commit to right now.

    Labour has sealed the deal with the electorate last Thursday, and it wasn’t even a tough or brave decision.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,041
    ydoethur said:

    TimS said:

    Never understand why some right wingers who are presumably all about the state getting out of our way in other walks of life are so keen to give them the power to kill us. No thanks.

    The primary function of the state is to deliver justice and maintain order, neither of which are served by putting the rights of violent criminals ahead of the rights of law-abiding citizens.
    So what you’re saying is, Trump was right and Biden should shoot him?
    Let's wait for the SC to rule on presidential immunity first.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,702
    “My Nan worked in the co-op selling cigs for thirty years and she never got lung cancer, don’t believe these scare stories”

    - @bondegezou
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,771
    Off topic: I had a walk in Skipton Woods earlier. There was a bat flying around. First time I have ever seen one in daylight. Lovely to see.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,418
    edited February 10

    Interesting polling on labour ditching the 28 billion pa green investment

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1756296095133577411?t=5sYu2wqBkxWs6OgrDYGDBw&s=19

    Indeed, a massive error in so many ways. Rishi had a good week by default last week. This was the icing on his cake. Starmer had a shocker. A really poor media interaction as much as anything else.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,702
    In case anyone is in any doubt


    What is Fentanyl?

    Fentanyl is a powerful synthetic opioid that is up to 50 times stronger than heroin and 100 times stronger than morphine. Just 2 milligrams of fentanyl, equal to 10 to15 GRAINS of table salt, is considered a lethal dose.



    Drug trafficking organizations typically distribute fentanyl by the kilogram. One kilogram of fentanyl has the potential to kill 500,000 people.

    https://www.dea.gov/resources/facts-about-fentanyl
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,041
    Nigelb said:

    Trump says if he doesn’t win the election, Pennsylvania will cease to exist because ‘they’ will change the name
    https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1756118803501732257

    "I may be old, but I'm not mad."
    #Biden2024

    I'm surprised he didn't predict the woke madness of Barbietucky.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,893

    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Western populations aren't too happy when people get wrongly imprisoned - see for instance the post office situation.
    We can start with the low hanging fruit: execute multiple murderers where there is no plausible doubt about their guilt.
    It amazes me how many people have seemingly never heard of Timothy Evans or the Birmingham Six.
    That's like arguing against vaccinations because some people will have fatal adverse events.

    Have you heard of Stephen Wright?
    If vaccinations had zero statistical efficacy, yes. It would be exactly comparable.
    Quite. I find the comparison extraordinary, as WG is demanding "no plausible doubt" - which is pretty much the assumption when some murderer is convicted, *by definition*, at the trial. Even when there was at at the time, never mind later.

    And I can't see why the unfortunate RC Bishop of Durham is being brought into the conversation.
    When you have a mass vaccination campaign, you know for a fact that a small percentage of people will die as a direct consequence.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-65321937

    The death of a psychologist after his Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid-19 jab was due to "unintended complications of the vaccine", an inquest has ruled.

    Stephen Wright, an NHS employee in south-east London, died 10 days after his first dose in January 2021, senior coroner Andrew Harris found.

    Dr Wright, 32, suffered a blood clot to the brain after receiving the vaccine.
    But you're comparing apples with bullshit here. There is simply no correlation (other than a death) between an erroneous state execution and an individual adverse reaction to a mass vaccination.
    The connection is that there are always risks in life.

    Some people think that the risk of being murdered by an aslyum seeker is worth it to live in the kind of country that welcomes asylum seekers, but it's not much consolation to the people who've paid with their lives.
    My last defence, before I f*** off, because you are really pissing me off.

    Just off the top of my head. Derek Bentley and Timothy Evans, autistic men who did not commit the murders directly, were maliciously executed by the British state. Hanger and flogger Home Secretary David Waddington's pathetic defence of autistic innocent Stefan Kizko would have led to his execution, had capital punishment been available in the 1970s. Ruth Ellis fired the shot, but these days she would have been mitigated by the fact that David Blakeley abused her. None should have died at the hand of the state.

    I won't bother to list the egregious capital miscarriages of justices that have occurred since 1964. But there are lots, thankfully we didn't have the death sentence option, so they merely ruined lives rather than extinguished them in my name. I hope such days never come to pass again.

    I wouldn't choose to rub shoulders with people like you and Leon in the real world, so don't mind if I avoid you both on here. Ludicrous posters, both!
    I propose all politicians who campaign for the death penalty are put in a draw with 1% to be executed on it becoming law, just to demonstrate that 1% is an acceptable failure rate for the greater good.
  • Options

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Harper said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Indeed. If we had the death penalty for drug trafficking into the uk much of the uk drug trade would be wiped out overnight. At present prison is seen as an acceptable cost of doing business.
    Back in my day on a Saturday we watched and smiled, because "Saturday is Tiswas, never a day to miss 'cos Saturday is Tiswas day".

    Now Saturday is house troll day. We don't want your death penalty over here matey boy!
    I fear it may be coming. Drugs like Fentanyl and Tranq are so dangerous, nations may have to start executing the dealers

    110,000 Americans died of a drug overdose last year. Horrendous. If you could save those lives by hanging 1000 dealers, would you take the offer? Many would

    I suspect Salvador will export its policy
    In the UK and the US our drug dealers are feted. Despite Purdue Pharma promoting Oxycontin to the detriment of the population at large we make the Sacklurs and their like patrons of the arts.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/books/review/empire-of-pain-sackler-dynasty-patrick-radden-keefe.html
    The story of the Sacklers is an absolute disgrace, I agree, but it is not fundemantal to the rise of Fentanyl and now Tranq

    People who never went near Oxycontin or any of those horrible legal opioids are dying of Fent and Tranq

    110,000 Americans in a year. Like a really bad war; like two Vietnams, every year
    The problem with the OxyContin story, is that it’s a massive setback for those who want to see a more liberal approach to drugs, when a legal drug causes so many societal issues.

    As as been said many times before, you have to have an extreme approach to be successful. Either you sell everything in pharmacies and spend the taxes on rehab facilities, or you go down the Singapore route of high sentences for first offenders. The “war on drugs” route, as seen in most of the west, simply doesn’t work.
    Yep, it's one or the other

    I used to be libertarian: legalise everything, tax it for the benefit of the state. Having now personally witnessed what the latest drugs are doing to the USA, I have almost entirely changed my mind. Singapore might be the only solution

    America cannot tolerate 110,000 deaths from OD every year, and getting worse...
    Most of the nastiest drugs are as a result of prohibition - pack more punch into a smaller volume, insanely dangerous home chemistry etc.

    Not to mention an opiates crisis driven by doctors being paid to prescribe as much as possible.

    Absolutely. It was the same during prohibition. Illegal spirits were much more dangerous than legal beer.
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 702

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Harper said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Indeed. If we had the death penalty for drug trafficking into the uk much of the uk drug trade would be wiped out overnight. At present prison is seen as an acceptable cost of doing business.
    Back in my day on a Saturday we watched and smiled, because "Saturday is Tiswas, never a day to miss 'cos Saturday is Tiswas day".

    Now Saturday is house troll day. We don't want your death penalty over here matey boy!
    I fear it may be coming. Drugs like Fentanyl and Tranq are so dangerous, nations may have to start executing the dealers

    110,000 Americans died of a drug overdose last year. Horrendous. If you could save those lives by hanging 1000 dealers, would you take the offer? Many would

    I suspect Salvador will export its policy
    In the UK and the US our drug dealers are feted. Despite Purdue Pharma promoting Oxycontin to the detriment of the population at large we make the Sacklurs and their like patrons of the arts.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/books/review/empire-of-pain-sackler-dynasty-patrick-radden-keefe.html
    The story of the Sacklers is an absolute disgrace, I agree, but it is not fundemantal to the rise of Fentanyl and now Tranq

    People who never went near Oxycontin or any of those horrible legal opioids are dying of Fent and Tranq

    110,000 Americans in a year. Like a really bad war; like two Vietnams, every year
    The problem with the OxyContin story, is that it’s a massive setback for those who want to see a more liberal approach to drugs, when a legal drug causes so many societal issues.

    As as been said many times before, you have to have an extreme approach to be successful. Either you sell everything in pharmacies and spend the taxes on rehab facilities, or you go down the Singapore route of high sentences for first offenders. The “war on drugs” route, as seen in most of the west, simply doesn’t work.
    Yep, it's one or the other

    I used to be libertarian: legalise everything, tax it for the benefit of the state. Having now personally witnessed what the latest drugs are doing to the USA, I have almost entirely changed my mind. Singapore might be the only solution

    America cannot tolerate 110,000 deaths from OD every year, and getting worse...
    Most of the nastiest drugs are as a result of prohibition - pack more punch into a smaller volume, insanely dangerous home chemistry etc.

    Not to mention an opiates crisis driven by doctors being paid to prescribe as much as possible.

    Yes the Oxy problem was a specifically American problem, because of the unique way prescription drugs are advertised and marketed in that country.

    If you could just go and get generic heroin or morphine from the pharmacy for a few bucks, it would ease many of the current issues in the States.
    This is wrong

    Fentanyl is not just 50 times stronger than smack, it offers a way more profound high. A more intense oblivion - so users say

    So even if you sell heroin at the corner shop the junkies will still seek out the better drug
    Well sell them all in the corner shop then. At least people will know what exactly they’re taking, most of the deaths are from unintentional overdoses.
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Harper said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Indeed. If we had the death penalty for drug trafficking into the uk much of the uk drug trade would be wiped out overnight. At present prison is seen as an acceptable cost of doing business.
    Back in my day on a Saturday we watched and smiled, because "Saturday is Tiswas, never a day to miss 'cos Saturday is Tiswas day".

    Now Saturday is house troll day. We don't want your death penalty over here matey boy!
    I fear it may be coming. Drugs like Fentanyl and Tranq are so dangerous, nations may have to start executing the dealers

    110,000 Americans died of a drug overdose last year. Horrendous. If you could save those lives by hanging 1000 dealers, would you take the offer? Many would

    I suspect Salvador will export its policy
    In the UK and the US our drug dealers are feted. Despite Purdue Pharma promoting Oxycontin to the detriment of the population at large we make the Sacklurs and their like patrons of the arts.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/books/review/empire-of-pain-sackler-dynasty-patrick-radden-keefe.html
    The story of the Sacklers is an absolute disgrace, I agree, but it is not fundemantal to the rise of Fentanyl and now Tranq

    People who never went near Oxycontin or any of those horrible legal opioids are dying of Fent and Tranq

    110,000 Americans in a year. Like a really bad war; like two Vietnams, every year
    The problem with the OxyContin story, is that it’s a massive setback for those who want to see a more liberal approach to drugs, when a legal drug causes so many societal issues.

    As as been said many times before, you have to have an extreme approach to be successful. Either you sell everything in pharmacies and spend the taxes on rehab facilities, or you go down the Singapore route of high sentences for first offenders. The “war on drugs” route, as seen in most of the west, simply doesn’t work.
    Yep, it's one or the other

    I used to be libertarian: legalise everything, tax it for the benefit of the state. Having now personally witnessed what the latest drugs are doing to the USA, I have almost entirely changed my mind. Singapore might be the only solution

    America cannot tolerate 110,000 deaths from OD every year, and getting worse...
    Most of the nastiest drugs are as a result of prohibition - pack more punch into a smaller volume, insanely dangerous home chemistry etc.

    Not to mention an opiates crisis driven by doctors being paid to prescribe as much as possible.

    Yes the Oxy problem was a specifically American problem, because of the unique way prescription drugs are advertised and marketed in that country.

    If you could just go and get generic heroin or morphine from the pharmacy for a few bucks, it would ease many of the current issues in the States.
    This is wrong

    Fentanyl is not just 50 times stronger than smack, it offers a way more profound high. A more intense oblivion - so users say

    So even if you sell heroin at the corner shop the junkies will still seek out the better drug
    Well sell them all in the corner shop then. At least people will know what exactly they’re taking, most of the deaths are from unintentional overdoses.
    Fentanyl has many routine clinical uses and is regularly prescribed in the NHS. My Mum was on fentanyl patches for >1 year. It was effective in controlling the pain she was suffering and you wouldn’t have known she was on it talking to her. Some of the more journalistic stories about it can give a misleading impression that it is uniquely powerful or addictive or dangerous.
    We questioned it when it was prescribed to my mother as part of end of life care, and were told that it was used so commonly precisely because it produced fewer hallucinations and less feeling of being "high" than other opiods for the same amount of pain relief.

    So I'm not sure I quite believe that it produces a better or more profound high than fifty times as much heroin would.

    Even if it does, I still think the main factor driving its abuse is largely economic - a cheap synthetic drug from a lab rather than an expensive import from an unreliable country mired in chaos. Seems obvious that one would become more readily than the other.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,666

    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Even if it wan’t Trump, who’ll be an easy opponent for the Dems with his back catalogue, I still think it will be plain sailing for Biden once it all starts properly.

    What? He can't string a coherent sentence together and clearly has no idea where he is or what he's going.The dam has broken and the media, which have hitherto been largely covering it all up, will now be remorseless. It will be like a pack pf wolves devouring a stricken animal. It's going to be brutal to watch.

    So Biden's finished. Done. He may not even finish his first term depending how how hard the media pack goes for him.

    The only question is what the Dems do now to get themselves out of the situation they've got themselves into.
    Rubbish.

    Media always do this. Especially in football. Five wins in a row and the managers the goat. Five without a win and it’s crisis time. A few weeks later, goat again. Media only do it becuase they love the “comeback” headlines and story, maybe it’s that one which sells copy.

    This “fuckmule” has only blown up because of how Biden got away with his breach, it’s only given boost because of comments in that report, and like all vulture frenzies it will burn itself out without more red meat examples to go on.

    Also remember, Trump’s camp is cannily aware of this as well. If one candidate falls for being old and mangling sentences, where’s the media coming for their next victim?

    Look at your post and reflect it against Politics is about hollowing out your opponent for your own knockout punch, not losing them for a fresh, unhollowed out opponent.
    I'm not sure you're right on this occasion.

    The media have bought the narrative, and every time Biden gaffes - which is hardly infrequent - they'll rehash it.

    And there is then the genuine question of how much his faculties have in reality declined - and what shape he'll be in by late summer.

    I am probably one of Biden's strongest proponents, but I just don't know how this plays out.
    I too have no idea how it plays out. We are in uncharted territory, although that’s more the unprecedented nature of Trump than the unprecedented nature of Biden. So, as we’re kinda meant to be about betting, what’s the answer? Make trading bets. There’s been a big shift away from Biden. I think the market is overreacting, so maybe bet on Biden in order to lay when his odds improve again. Michelle Obama at 7% may be worth laying. The counter-argument is that you are locking your money up for several months for a poor return, but as a trading bet, you can probably realise your investment much sooner when her odds move out again. If Biden is in trouble, then Harris is undervalued.
    “If Biden is in trouble, then Harris is undervalued.” Is the betting position. Spot on. 👍🏻

    As for you Nigel. Oh dear.
    Media had red meat from the report. Without further red meat these frenzies burn out.

    Media gets wrapped up into fuckmules, and so many PBers follow them into getting so wrapped up into the fuckmule too - it’s the great weakness of so many PBers. Too easily led.
    That’s not you by the way Nigel. Normally.
  • Options
    TresTres Posts: 2,264
    edited February 10
    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I see Kemi Badenoch has one of those big style makeover feature things in the Times.

    Which suggests Rupert has decided she’s next.

    Remember I've been on the Kemi bandwagon for a couple of years! :D
    I’m suspecting now Kemi will be next Tory leader.

    Great News for Starmer and Labour. She’s so utterly arrogant and abusive, and really into all that MAGA woke war stuff.

    But that would be the least of her problems. How is she going work with Braverman and the others? Remember Braverman was not sacked by Liz for a security lapse, it was because she was working with backbenchers to defeat not just Truss policy, but the policy of the government she was in. The only news Badenoch Shadow Cabinet will make will be all about personality and factional conflicts, suppressing their poll rating the whole term.

    Badenoch will be bad news for the Conservatives. They are not coming back to sanity so we can vote for them anytime soon. 😕
    What's her lane in the 2024/5 leadership election?

    I suspect it's "strong right-wingery tempered by realism". And that loses to "strong right-wingery with no concessions to objective reality" (see Truss-Sunak). Unless she can engineer a final two where her opponent is a Centrist, she loses. And I'm not sure she can.

    Two other things.

    One is that, yes, many bits of her life story are impressive. But there is also a streak of "global elite who happens to have landed in the UK". She's not as clueless about the country as Sunak, but it's a problem. An occupational hazard of being Conservative is becoming someone who sees themselves as a self-made (wo)man who is entitled to worship their creator.

    The other is that, once she is off the culture war stuff, she's not up to much. See her failure with the Post Office stuff.

    Not that it matters in a way. The next Conservative leader is more likely than not to resign after losing in 2028. If Badenoch is that leader, her successor will probably be even more batso.

    Things can get a lot worse yet.
    We have diagnosed the same problem in Kemi. She’s like an anti woke Davos woman

    Braverman seems much more authentically British
    nasty and dumb?
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,813
    "Dover farmer protests organiser says action could escalate"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-68261249

    Potential problem coming up? European style farmer protests is the last think Sunak needs.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,231
    CatMan said:

    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Western populations aren't too happy when people get wrongly imprisoned - see for instance the post office situation.
    We can start with the low hanging fruit: execute multiple murderers where there is no plausible doubt about their guilt.
    It amazes me how many people have seemingly never heard of Timothy Evans or the Birmingham Six.
    That's like arguing against vaccinations because some people will have fatal adverse events.

    Have you heard of Stephen Wright?
    No it isn't. People can choose to not get a vaccine. People can't opt out of being executed falsely
    How many people have been killed by recidivist criminals and how could they opt out?
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,262
    CatMan said:

    "Dover farmer protests organiser says action could escalate"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-68261249

    Potential problem coming up? European style farmer protests is the last think Sunak needs.

    "The organiser of a protest which brought more than 30 tractors to Dover on Friday night says further action "cannot be ruled out".

    Jeff Gibson told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that widespread anger felt by UK farmers meant it could "very easily escalate"."

    Sounds like he's trying to will it into existence. More than 30? Oh no!
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,532
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    TimS said:

    Never understand why some right wingers who are presumably all about the state getting out of our way in other walks of life are so keen to give them the power to kill us. No thanks.

    The primary function of the state is to deliver justice and maintain order, neither of which are served by putting the rights of violent criminals ahead of the rights of law-abiding citizens.
    So what you’re saying is, Trump was right and Biden should shoot him?
    Let's wait for the SC to rule on presidential immunity first.
    Let's see if they do, first. It might well be they decline to hear that case as a quid pro quo for tossing the 14th Amendment to try and show they're impartial.

    (Assuming Trump's attorneys can stay off whatever they're on long enough to file the appeal, of course.)
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,702
    AlsoLei said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Harper said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Indeed. If we had the death penalty for drug trafficking into the uk much of the uk drug trade would be wiped out overnight. At present prison is seen as an acceptable cost of doing business.
    Back in my day on a Saturday we watched and smiled, because "Saturday is Tiswas, never a day to miss 'cos Saturday is Tiswas day".

    Now Saturday is house troll day. We don't want your death penalty over here matey boy!
    I fear it may be coming. Drugs like Fentanyl and Tranq are so dangerous, nations may have to start executing the dealers

    110,000 Americans died of a drug overdose last year. Horrendous. If you could save those lives by hanging 1000 dealers, would you take the offer? Many would

    I suspect Salvador will export its policy
    In the UK and the US our drug dealers are feted. Despite Purdue Pharma promoting Oxycontin to the detriment of the population at large we make the Sacklurs and their like patrons of the arts.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/books/review/empire-of-pain-sackler-dynasty-patrick-radden-keefe.html
    The story of the Sacklers is an absolute disgrace, I agree, but it is not fundemantal to the rise of Fentanyl and now Tranq

    People who never went near Oxycontin or any of those horrible legal opioids are dying of Fent and Tranq

    110,000 Americans in a year. Like a really bad war; like two Vietnams, every year
    The problem with the OxyContin story, is that it’s a massive setback for those who want to see a more liberal approach to drugs, when a legal drug causes so many societal issues.

    As as been said many times before, you have to have an extreme approach to be successful. Either you sell everything in pharmacies and spend the taxes on rehab facilities, or you go down the Singapore route of high sentences for first offenders. The “war on drugs” route, as seen in most of the west, simply doesn’t work.
    Yep, it's one or the other

    I used to be libertarian: legalise everything, tax it for the benefit of the state. Having now personally witnessed what the latest drugs are doing to the USA, I have almost entirely changed my mind. Singapore might be the only solution

    America cannot tolerate 110,000 deaths from OD every year, and getting worse...
    Most of the nastiest drugs are as a result of prohibition - pack more punch into a smaller volume, insanely dangerous home chemistry etc.

    Not to mention an opiates crisis driven by doctors being paid to prescribe as much as possible.

    Yes the Oxy problem was a specifically American problem, because of the unique way prescription drugs are advertised and marketed in that country.

    If you could just go and get generic heroin or morphine from the pharmacy for a few bucks, it would ease many of the current issues in the States.
    This is wrong

    Fentanyl is not just 50 times stronger than smack, it offers a way more profound high. A more intense oblivion - so users say

    So even if you sell heroin at the corner shop the junkies will still seek out the better drug
    Well sell them all in the corner shop then. At least people will know what exactly they’re taking, most of the deaths are from unintentional overdoses.
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Harper said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Indeed. If we had the death penalty for drug trafficking into the uk much of the uk drug trade would be wiped out overnight. At present prison is seen as an acceptable cost of doing business.
    Back in my day on a Saturday we watched and smiled, because "Saturday is Tiswas, never a day to miss 'cos Saturday is Tiswas day".

    Now Saturday is house troll day. We don't want your death penalty over here matey boy!
    I fear it may be coming. Drugs like Fentanyl and Tranq are so dangerous, nations may have to start executing the dealers

    110,000 Americans died of a drug overdose last year. Horrendous. If you could save those lives by hanging 1000 dealers, would you take the offer? Many would

    I suspect Salvador will export its policy
    In the UK and the US our drug dealers are feted. Despite Purdue Pharma promoting Oxycontin to the detriment of the population at large we make the Sacklurs and their like patrons of the arts.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/books/review/empire-of-pain-sackler-dynasty-patrick-radden-keefe.html
    The story of the Sacklers is an absolute disgrace, I agree, but it is not fundemantal to the rise of Fentanyl and now Tranq

    People who never went near Oxycontin or any of those horrible legal opioids are dying of Fent and Tranq

    110,000 Americans in a year. Like a really bad war; like two Vietnams, every year
    The problem with the OxyContin story, is that it’s a massive setback for those who want to see a more liberal approach to drugs, when a legal drug causes so many societal issues.

    As as been said many times before, you have to have an extreme approach to be successful. Either you sell everything in pharmacies and spend the taxes on rehab facilities, or you go down the Singapore route of high sentences for first offenders. The “war on drugs” route, as seen in most of the west, simply doesn’t work.
    Yep, it's one or the other

    I used to be libertarian: legalise everything, tax it for the benefit of the state. Having now personally witnessed what the latest drugs are doing to the USA, I have almost entirely changed my mind. Singapore might be the only solution

    America cannot tolerate 110,000 deaths from OD every year, and getting worse...
    Most of the nastiest drugs are as a result of prohibition - pack more punch into a smaller volume, insanely dangerous home chemistry etc.

    Not to mention an opiates crisis driven by doctors being paid to prescribe as much as possible.

    Yes the Oxy problem was a specifically American problem, because of the unique way prescription drugs are advertised and marketed in that country.

    If you could just go and get generic heroin or morphine from the pharmacy for a few bucks, it would ease many of the current issues in the States.
    This is wrong

    Fentanyl is not just 50 times stronger than smack, it offers a way more profound high. A more intense oblivion - so users say

    So even if you sell heroin at the corner shop the junkies will still seek out the better drug
    Well sell them all in the corner shop then. At least people will know what exactly they’re taking, most of the deaths are from unintentional overdoses.
    Fentanyl has many routine clinical uses and is regularly prescribed in the NHS. My Mum was on fentanyl patches for >1 year. It was effective in controlling the pain she was suffering and you wouldn’t have known she was on it talking to her. Some of the more journalistic stories about it can give a misleading impression that it is uniquely powerful or addictive or dangerous.
    We questioned it when it was prescribed to my mother as part of end of life care, and were told that it was used so commonly precisely because it produced fewer hallucinations and less feeling of being "high" than other opiods for the same amount of pain relief.

    So I'm not sure I quite believe that it produces a better or more profound high than fifty times as much heroin would.

    Even if it does, I still think the main factor driving its abuse is largely economic - a cheap synthetic drug from a lab rather than an expensive import from an unreliable country mired in chaos. Seems obvious that one would become more readily than the other.
    Honestly, this is quite idiotic. You haven’t a clue what you’re talking about

    Yes Fentanyl has legitimate medical uses - for severe pain - but yes it is also incredibly strong and
    dangerous. So the amounts any person would receive in a hospital are going to be way less than anything you buy on the street. And it will be precisely measured in a hospital - partly because it is so lethal. And at such low medicinal doses no there wont be a buzz

    Why do you think users come back for this drug - so obviously dangerous - if they don’t get a massive rush from it? They’re not doing it as a job

    It also causes horrendous withdrawal pains once you are habituated
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,666

    GIN1138 said:

    Even if it wan’t Trump, who’ll be an easy opponent for the Dems with his back catalogue, I still think it will be plain sailing for Biden once it all starts properly.

    What? He can't string a coherent sentence together and clearly has no idea where he is or what he's going.The dam has broken and the media, which have hitherto been largely covering it all up, will now be remorseless. It will be like a pack pf wolves devouring a stricken animal. It's going to be brutal to watch.

    So Biden's finished. Done. He may not even finish his first term depending how how hard the media pack goes for him.

    The only question is what the Dems do now to get themselves out of the situation they've got themselves into.
    Hyperbole but the more focus on Biden's marbles, the more that people will ask the same questions of Trump who is only half a yard behind the President. It may well be that neither stands come November.
    I agree. Which is why it’s in Trumps interest Biden shakes this off soon.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,136
    edited February 10
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    The time to parachute Michelle Obama into the race has been and gone. This leaves aside the fact that she has reiterated time and time again that she’s not interested.

    It is going to be really hard for the Democrats to legitimise a candidate at the convention if the nominee isn’t Biden. Expect Trump to run with the “establishment stitch up” narrative - they didn’t even let you choose.

    The only candidate that I think manages to mitigate that is Harris because of her role as No.2 on the ticket. Even more so if she were to assume the presidency beforehand.

    Just to clarify: my suggestion of Michelle Obama was not serious.
    She’s third favourite to be next president!
    So was Rick Santorum once.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campaign_for_the_neologism_"santorum"
    https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/santorum

    (Dan Savage used to have a free column on the AV Club. T'Internet isn't as fun as it used to be these days :( )
  • Options
    Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 596
    Leon said:

    Penddu2 said:

    FWIW - my 6 Nations predictions....

    Scotland v France
    France are going to throw the ball around and this has the makings of a high scoring game... Scotland 20 France 30

    England v Wales
    This is going to be a very tight game. England will try to outmuscle Wales but expect Wales to counterattack from deep. This will probably be a narrow England win 24-20 but chance of a Welsh upset.

    Ireland v Italy
    Italy will be competitive for around 20 minutes but overall I expect another dominant game from Ireland. 40-15

    How did you do last week with your predix? This is not a barbed remark, I am genuinely curious


    I would differ this week

    Scotland looked dominant against Wales and only - nearly - lost, because they got complacent and then Wales were possessed by some amazing demon energy. Finn Russell is a truly great player and so is Van Der Wotsit, and France are in a terrible post World Cup sulk and they've lost Dupont and they don't care

    Scotland by ten points, around 30-20


    England Wales?

    Agreed very tight, but England are at home, and Wales look fragile

    England by 10, around 25-15


    Ireland Italy. Yes, agreed, Ireland far too good, even for a reviving Italy. 40-15 sounds about right


    last week I correctly predicted all the results - but I underestmated Irelands dominance - and underestimated the closeness of the other two games. So either very good or very bad depending how you look at it.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,702
    AlsoLei said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Harper said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Indeed. If we had the death penalty for drug trafficking into the uk much of the uk drug trade would be wiped out overnight. At present prison is seen as an acceptable cost of doing business.
    Back in my day on a Saturday we watched and smiled, because "Saturday is Tiswas, never a day to miss 'cos Saturday is Tiswas day".

    Now Saturday is house troll day. We don't want your death penalty over here matey boy!
    I fear it may be coming. Drugs like Fentanyl and Tranq are so dangerous, nations may have to start executing the dealers

    110,000 Americans died of a drug overdose last year. Horrendous. If you could save those lives by hanging 1000 dealers, would you take the offer? Many would

    I suspect Salvador will export its policy
    In the UK and the US our drug dealers are feted. Despite Purdue Pharma promoting Oxycontin to the detriment of the population at large we make the Sacklurs and their like patrons of the arts.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/books/review/empire-of-pain-sackler-dynasty-patrick-radden-keefe.html
    The story of the Sacklers is an absolute disgrace, I agree, but it is not fundemantal to the rise of Fentanyl and now Tranq

    People who never went near Oxycontin or any of those horrible legal opioids are dying of Fent and Tranq

    110,000 Americans in a year. Like a really bad war; like two Vietnams, every year
    The problem with the OxyContin story, is that it’s a massive setback for those who want to see a more liberal approach to drugs, when a legal drug causes so many societal issues.

    As as been said many times before, you have to have an extreme approach to be successful. Either you sell everything in pharmacies and spend the taxes on rehab facilities, or you go down the Singapore route of high sentences for first offenders. The “war on drugs” route, as seen in most of the west, simply doesn’t work.
    Yep, it's one or the other

    I used to be libertarian: legalise everything, tax it for the benefit of the state. Having now personally witnessed what the latest drugs are doing to the USA, I have almost entirely changed my mind. Singapore might be the only solution

    America cannot tolerate 110,000 deaths from OD every year, and getting worse...
    Most of the nastiest drugs are as a result of prohibition - pack more punch into a smaller volume, insanely dangerous home chemistry etc.

    Not to mention an opiates crisis driven by doctors being paid to prescribe as much as possible.

    Yes the Oxy problem was a specifically American problem, because of the unique way prescription drugs are advertised and marketed in that country.

    If you could just go and get generic heroin or morphine from the pharmacy for a few bucks, it would ease many of the current issues in the States.
    This is wrong

    Fentanyl is not just 50 times stronger than smack, it offers a way more profound high. A more intense oblivion - so users say

    So even if you sell heroin at the corner shop the junkies will still seek out the better drug
    Well sell them all in the corner shop then. At least people will know what exactly they’re taking, most of the deaths are from unintentional overdoses.
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Harper said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Indeed. If we had the death penalty for drug trafficking into the uk much of the uk drug trade would be wiped out overnight. At present prison is seen as an acceptable cost of doing business.
    Back in my day on a Saturday we watched and smiled, because "Saturday is Tiswas, never a day to miss 'cos Saturday is Tiswas day".

    Now Saturday is house troll day. We don't want your death penalty over here matey boy!
    I fear it may be coming. Drugs like Fentanyl and Tranq are so dangerous, nations may have to start executing the dealers

    110,000 Americans died of a drug overdose last year. Horrendous. If you could save those lives by hanging 1000 dealers, would you take the offer? Many would

    I suspect Salvador will export its policy
    In the UK and the US our drug dealers are feted. Despite Purdue Pharma promoting Oxycontin to the detriment of the population at large we make the Sacklurs and their like patrons of the arts.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/books/review/empire-of-pain-sackler-dynasty-patrick-radden-keefe.html
    The story of the Sacklers is an absolute disgrace, I agree, but it is not fundemantal to the rise of Fentanyl and now Tranq

    People who never went near Oxycontin or any of those horrible legal opioids are dying of Fent and Tranq

    110,000 Americans in a year. Like a really bad war; like two Vietnams, every year
    The problem with the OxyContin story, is that it’s a massive setback for those who want to see a more liberal approach to drugs, when a legal drug causes so many societal issues.

    As as been said many times before, you have to have an extreme approach to be successful. Either you sell everything in pharmacies and spend the taxes on rehab facilities, or you go down the Singapore route of high sentences for first offenders. The “war on drugs” route, as seen in most of the west, simply doesn’t work.
    Yep, it's one or the other

    I used to be libertarian: legalise everything, tax it for the benefit of the state. Having now personally witnessed what the latest drugs are doing to the USA, I have almost entirely changed my mind. Singapore might be the only solution

    America cannot tolerate 110,000 deaths from OD every year, and getting worse...
    Most of the nastiest drugs are as a result of prohibition - pack more punch into a smaller volume, insanely dangerous home chemistry etc.

    Not to mention an opiates crisis driven by doctors being paid to prescribe as much as possible.

    Yes the Oxy problem was a specifically American problem, because of the unique way prescription drugs are advertised and marketed in that country.

    If you could just go and get generic heroin or morphine from the pharmacy for a few bucks, it would ease many of the current issues in the States.
    This is wrong

    Fentanyl is not just 50 times stronger than smack, it offers a way more profound high. A more intense oblivion - so users say

    So even if you sell heroin at the corner shop the junkies will still seek out the better drug
    Well sell them all in the corner shop then. At least people will know what exactly they’re taking, most of the deaths are from unintentional overdoses.
    Fentanyl has many routine clinical uses and is regularly prescribed in the NHS. My Mum was on fentanyl patches for >1 year. It was effective in controlling the pain she was suffering and you wouldn’t have known she was on it talking to her. Some of the more journalistic stories about it can give a misleading impression that it is uniquely powerful or addictive or dangerous.
    We questioned it when it was prescribed to my mother as part of end of life care, and were told that it was used so commonly precisely because it produced fewer hallucinations and less feeling of being "high" than other opiods for the same amount of pain relief.

    So I'm not sure I quite believe that it produces a better or more profound high than fifty times as much heroin would.

    Even if it does, I still think the main factor driving its abuse is largely economic - a cheap synthetic drug from a lab rather than an expensive import from an unreliable country mired in chaos. Seems obvious that one would become more readily than the other.
    Where do you think the Fentanyl labs are?
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,666

    Interesting polling on labour ditching the 28 billion pa green investment

    https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1756296095133577411?t=5sYu2wqBkxWs6OgrDYGDBw&s=19

    Indeed, a massive error in so many ways. Rishi had a good week by default last week. This was the icing on his cake. Starmer had a shocker. A really poor media interaction as much as anything else.
    MexPet has spoken.

    Confirms it was a great week for Labour then 😃
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,532
    carnforth said:

    CatMan said:

    "Dover farmer protests organiser says action could escalate"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-68261249

    Potential problem coming up? European style farmer protests is the last think Sunak needs.

    "The organiser of a protest which brought more than 30 tractors to Dover on Friday night says further action "cannot be ruled out".

    Jeff Gibson told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that widespread anger felt by UK farmers meant it could "very easily escalate"."

    Sounds like he's trying to will it into existence. More than 30? Oh no!
    You want to be wary. Farmers might combine over cuts.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,702
    Penddu2 said:

    Leon said:

    Penddu2 said:

    FWIW - my 6 Nations predictions....

    Scotland v France
    France are going to throw the ball around and this has the makings of a high scoring game... Scotland 20 France 30

    England v Wales
    This is going to be a very tight game. England will try to outmuscle Wales but expect Wales to counterattack from deep. This will probably be a narrow England win 24-20 but chance of a Welsh upset.

    Ireland v Italy
    Italy will be competitive for around 20 minutes but overall I expect another dominant game from Ireland. 40-15

    How did you do last week with your predix? This is not a barbed remark, I am genuinely curious


    I would differ this week

    Scotland looked dominant against Wales and only - nearly - lost, because they got complacent and then Wales were possessed by some amazing demon energy. Finn Russell is a truly great player and so is Van Der Wotsit, and France are in a terrible post World Cup sulk and they've lost Dupont and they don't care

    Scotland by ten points, around 30-20


    England Wales?

    Agreed very tight, but England are at home, and Wales look fragile

    England by 10, around 25-15


    Ireland Italy. Yes, agreed, Ireland far too good, even for a reviving Italy. 40-15 sounds about right


    last week I correctly predicted all the results - but I underestmated Irelands dominance - and underestimated the closeness of the other two games. So either very good or very bad depending how you look at it.
    Three out of three! Impressive

    I only got one out of three, England, and even I had a meltdown

    I yield to your superior rugby knowledge. Tho I am still fairly sure Scotland will beat France. Scotland are on a roll and France have already lost the chance of a slam
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,136
    TimS said:

    Purge

    The way things are going, we'll probably be there soon. Blessed be our New Founding Fathers and America, a nation reborn... :(
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,975
    AlsoLei said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Harper said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Indeed. If we had the death penalty for drug trafficking into the uk much of the uk drug trade would be wiped out overnight. At present prison is seen as an acceptable cost of doing business.
    Back in my day on a Saturday we watched and smiled, because "Saturday is Tiswas, never a day to miss 'cos Saturday is Tiswas day".

    Now Saturday is house troll day. We don't want your death penalty over here matey boy!
    I fear it may be coming. Drugs like Fentanyl and Tranq are so dangerous, nations may have to start executing the dealers

    110,000 Americans died of a drug overdose last year. Horrendous. If you could save those lives by hanging 1000 dealers, would you take the offer? Many would

    I suspect Salvador will export its policy
    In the UK and the US our drug dealers are feted. Despite Purdue Pharma promoting Oxycontin to the detriment of the population at large we make the Sacklurs and their like patrons of the arts.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/books/review/empire-of-pain-sackler-dynasty-patrick-radden-keefe.html
    The story of the Sacklers is an absolute disgrace, I agree, but it is not fundemantal to the rise of Fentanyl and now Tranq

    People who never went near Oxycontin or any of those horrible legal opioids are dying of Fent and Tranq

    110,000 Americans in a year. Like a really bad war; like two Vietnams, every year
    The problem with the OxyContin story, is that it’s a massive setback for those who want to see a more liberal approach to drugs, when a legal drug causes so many societal issues.

    As as been said many times before, you have to have an extreme approach to be successful. Either you sell everything in pharmacies and spend the taxes on rehab facilities, or you go down the Singapore route of high sentences for first offenders. The “war on drugs” route, as seen in most of the west, simply doesn’t work.
    Yep, it's one or the other

    I used to be libertarian: legalise everything, tax it for the benefit of the state. Having now personally witnessed what the latest drugs are doing to the USA, I have almost entirely changed my mind. Singapore might be the only solution

    America cannot tolerate 110,000 deaths from OD every year, and getting worse...
    Most of the nastiest drugs are as a result of prohibition - pack more punch into a smaller volume, insanely dangerous home chemistry etc.

    Not to mention an opiates crisis driven by doctors being paid to prescribe as much as possible.

    Yes the Oxy problem was a specifically American problem, because of the unique way prescription drugs are advertised and marketed in that country.

    If you could just go and get generic heroin or morphine from the pharmacy for a few bucks, it would ease many of the current issues in the States.
    This is wrong

    Fentanyl is not just 50 times stronger than smack, it offers a way more profound high. A more intense oblivion - so users say

    So even if you sell heroin at the corner shop the junkies will still seek out the better drug
    Well sell them all in the corner shop then. At least people will know what exactly they’re taking, most of the deaths are from unintentional overdoses.
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Harper said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually, this is an interesting question

    Who would PBers pick as the most impressive leader in the western world? Is there one? Do we have any?

    Biden - lol
    Sunak - oh dear
    Scholz - who?
    Macron - lame duck allowing the hard right into power
    Meloni - too early, but not looking good
    Trudeau - effete, lame duck
    That Australian guy who lost his own referendum, lol

    Err......


    Humza Yousaf? Perhaps it is Humza Yousaf

    Probably Drakeford, for his principled position on road safety. Sticking with an unpopular policy because it's the right thing to do is a sign of political leadership. Khan for the same reason, on ULEZ.
    It is a good question though and illustrates what a poor crop we have right now. Hopefully it is darkest before dawn.
    This might not make me popular (not that this has ever stopped me before) but Bukele of El Salvador really does have some mighty charisma

    @williamglenn linked to his speech after his phenomenal victory. It is electrifying - partly because of the setting, the huge jubilant crowds, the enormous victory, the palpable relief of an entire nation saved from violent anarchy. BUT he also has IT, the gift, the charisma

    You can see how it could easily tip over into demagoguery, and then Fascism, but for now he appears to be a democrat, and extremely good at it, albeit ruthless (but he had no choice, and it is the will of the people - as he constantly says)



    He is already describing himself as 'philosopher king' on Twitter
    I really hope he doesn't descend into Fascism. Watching that crowd adoring him I got a sense of what it might have been like to see Mussolini or Hitler in their early successful years, with huge crowds chanting your name. It must be intoxicating, for him AND them

    He keeps insisting he is a democrat....
    The one lesson that will surely be copied is that being genuinely tough on crime, as opposed to just posturing, a) works and b) is popular.
    Indeed. If we had the death penalty for drug trafficking into the uk much of the uk drug trade would be wiped out overnight. At present prison is seen as an acceptable cost of doing business.
    Back in my day on a Saturday we watched and smiled, because "Saturday is Tiswas, never a day to miss 'cos Saturday is Tiswas day".

    Now Saturday is house troll day. We don't want your death penalty over here matey boy!
    I fear it may be coming. Drugs like Fentanyl and Tranq are so dangerous, nations may have to start executing the dealers

    110,000 Americans died of a drug overdose last year. Horrendous. If you could save those lives by hanging 1000 dealers, would you take the offer? Many would

    I suspect Salvador will export its policy
    In the UK and the US our drug dealers are feted. Despite Purdue Pharma promoting Oxycontin to the detriment of the population at large we make the Sacklurs and their like patrons of the arts.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/books/review/empire-of-pain-sackler-dynasty-patrick-radden-keefe.html
    The story of the Sacklers is an absolute disgrace, I agree, but it is not fundemantal to the rise of Fentanyl and now Tranq

    People who never went near Oxycontin or any of those horrible legal opioids are dying of Fent and Tranq

    110,000 Americans in a year. Like a really bad war; like two Vietnams, every year
    The problem with the OxyContin story, is that it’s a massive setback for those who want to see a more liberal approach to drugs, when a legal drug causes so many societal issues.

    As as been said many times before, you have to have an extreme approach to be successful. Either you sell everything in pharmacies and spend the taxes on rehab facilities, or you go down the Singapore route of high sentences for first offenders. The “war on drugs” route, as seen in most of the west, simply doesn’t work.
    Yep, it's one or the other

    I used to be libertarian: legalise everything, tax it for the benefit of the state. Having now personally witnessed what the latest drugs are doing to the USA, I have almost entirely changed my mind. Singapore might be the only solution

    America cannot tolerate 110,000 deaths from OD every year, and getting worse...
    Most of the nastiest drugs are as a result of prohibition - pack more punch into a smaller volume, insanely dangerous home chemistry etc.

    Not to mention an opiates crisis driven by doctors being paid to prescribe as much as possible.

    Yes the Oxy problem was a specifically American problem, because of the unique way prescription drugs are advertised and marketed in that country.

    If you could just go and get generic heroin or morphine from the pharmacy for a few bucks, it would ease many of the current issues in the States.
    This is wrong

    Fentanyl is not just 50 times stronger than smack, it offers a way more profound high. A more intense oblivion - so users say

    So even if you sell heroin at the corner shop the junkies will still seek out the better drug
    Well sell them all in the corner shop then. At least people will know what exactly they’re taking, most of the deaths are from unintentional overdoses.
    Fentanyl has many routine clinical uses and is regularly prescribed in the NHS. My Mum was on fentanyl patches for >1 year. It was effective in controlling the pain she was suffering and you wouldn’t have known she was on it talking to her. Some of the more journalistic stories about it can give a misleading impression that it is uniquely powerful or addictive or dangerous.
    We questioned it when it was prescribed to my mother as part of end of life care, and were told that it was used so commonly precisely because it produced fewer hallucinations and less feeling of being "high" than other opiods for the same amount of pain relief.

    So I'm not sure I quite believe that it produces a better or more profound high than fifty times as much heroin would.

    Even if it does, I still think the main factor driving its abuse is largely economic - a cheap synthetic drug from a lab rather than an expensive import from an unreliable country mired in chaos. Seems obvious that one would become more readily than the other.
    Sorry for your loss. My Mum’s end of life care also involved plenty of opioids. They are very effective drugs with lots of sensible clinical uses.

    But there is also a big abuse problem and, yes, I think I would agree that that reflects socio-economic issues. The US has also had a big problem with over-prescribing opioids, which is partly about the nature of how the healthcare system works there. Here’s a recent research paper on the topic, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10278447/

    “The crisis in the US began in the mid-1990s with the excessive prescribing of opioids, in part due to aggressive marketing tactics by pharmaceutical companies 16 and small, poorly conducted trials and case reports assessing opioid efficacy.17–19 The widespread prescribing of opioids in the US led to a death rate of 20.7 per 100,000 people in 2020. 20 In England, the opioid death rate has been substantially lower at 4.0 per 100,000 people in 2020, yet the prescribing of high-dose and long-acting opioids increased by 457% from 1998 to 2018.21,22 The differences in death rates may be driven by the contrasting healthcare systems. The UK’s National Health Service (NHS) provides universal access to healthcare and has a centralised model of primary care services whereby patients must register with a single general practice. In the US, the physician network is decentralised, enabling patients to ‘doctor shop’ to collect multiple opioid prescriptions. Furthermore, the US has direct-to-consumer marketing of pharmaceuticals, which increases demand and knowledge of opioids as a ‘quick fix’ for all pain conditions.

    “Although the opioid death rate is lower in England than the US, England is still experiencing higher than expected rates of mortality and morbidity from opioids. Opioid-related hospitalisations increased by 49% from 2008 to 2018, 23 and the number of people receiving treatment for prescription and over-the-counter (OTC) drug misuse also increased between 2009 and 2016. 24 Factors that contributed to the increased opioid mortality and morbidity in England may include the socio-economic fallout from the 2008 financial crisis, higher unemployment rates and deprivation, and the increasing ageing population that puts more people at risk of developing chronic non-cancer pain.22,25,26 However, mortality statistics in England and Wales do not distinguish between the source of opioid involved in drug poisonings (i.e., prescribed, illicit, or a combination). Although, the number of methadone-related deaths significantly increased in England in 2021, 2 and methadone is mainly used in opioid substitution therapy to treat misuse, suggesting that part of the increase is due to the illicit use of opioids. 2 Whilst the volume of opioids prescribed in the NHS has declined modestly since 2017, 22 the outcomes of this reduction remain unclear.”
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