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A date with destiny, a place in history? – politicalbetting.com

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  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,296

    We are the party of aspiration, low taxes, free markets, better known as One Nation Toryism.
    Is a party of 30p, of Jenrick and of Braverman what we should understand as "one nation Toryism"?

    Yes? Forgive me whilst I enjoy a "sniggle".
  • I do find it funny that the Tories do things and then are criticised for being stupid because it doesn’t help them.

    Clearly they must be stupid because no one would make a change to the electoral system except for partisan reasons.

    Do you think it’s possible that they are making the change because they believe that it’s the *right* thing to do and don’t care about the electoral consequences?
    No
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,454
    Scott_xP said:

    After a lot of soul-searching, I am now clear in my own mind that Labour is the right choice for the communities across the country where Iceland operates – and the right choice for everyone in business who wants to see this country grow and prosper.

    I say this not because I have had a radical change of heart. I say it because Labour under Keir Starmer has progressively moved towards the ground on which I have always stood, at the same time as the Conservatives have moved away from it. Indeed, the Tories’ abandonment of what I have always regarded as basic Conservative principles has not only fuelled my personal disenchantment, it is also reflected in the total collapse of public confidence we can see in every opinion poll.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/29/britain-leadership-chaos-tories-labour-richard-walker-chairman-iceland

    BREXIT!!

    (Used to be HOUSE!!)
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771
    edited January 2024

    No
    I agree - I don't think there is anything except political (mis-)calculation here; it *is* possible that they then try to convince themselves (and certainly others) that it is the "right" thing to do. But that is neither the initial motivation, nor the intended consequence.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,624
    TOPPING said:

    Dear god Gaza _and_ trans rights. All on a Monday morning on PB.

    What do we need for the holy trinity, or tranity ? Brexit ?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    Taz said:

    What do we need for the holy trinity, or tranity ? Brexit ?
    AV
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,509
    HYUFD said:

    It was Shirley Williams and Tony Crosland who as Labour Education Secretaries most pushed conversion of grammars to comprehensives.

    Thatcher did not stop mainly Labour councils doing the same from 1970-74 under PM Heath's orders but by the end of the Thatcher and Major Conservative governments in 1997 more pupils were in grammar schools than had been in 1979
    I'm sure many Tory counties embraced the comprehensive system. I don't have the details and can't be bothered to look them up, but during this time I am certain that Surrey would have been solidly Tory and it went comprehensive. What about East Sussex, West Sussex, Hampshire, etc, etc. Aren't all of these places that were solidly Tory at that time and went comprehensive?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,804
    edited January 2024
    The big news for me today isn't Gaza or any of that, it's on the vaping. The ban on disposables. They are the one thing that's worked to get me off the fags (after 45 years on them) so I'm a bit worried to put it mildly.

    That said, I think this must be about the most slam dunk public health measure a government could ever wish for. Disposable vapes are turning large numbers of young people who've never smoked into nicotine addicts and they're an environmental plague.

    So, you know, fuck you Rishi and well done Rishi on this one.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771
    Roger said:

    BREXIT!!

    (Used to be HOUSE!!)
    This is the most interesting quote for me:

    "[Rachel Reeves] understands the critical importance of wealth creation that lifts the economy for all in society"

    I think that exploring notion of "wealth creation" that *does not* concentrate that wealth into the hands of a few (largely US-based) billionaires and stagnate the flow of capital is going to be one of the most interesting areas in the politics of the next decade or so. It is the strategic discussion that sits over the top of the issue raised upthread of banks financing mortgages but not business investment.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,626

    AV
    Pineapple on pizza/radiohead.../AI/UAP's.

    I note that @leon is very quiet about the recent story from the states about UAP's.

    https://theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/27/sean-kirkpatrick-pentagon-ufo-conspiracy-theory-myths

    As I have said all along. Now @leon needs to admit that I am right.

    (Is this how you do it? - Asking for a friend)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536

    No
    Agreed. It's the same with Labour and the Lib Dems wanting to give children the vote.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,629
    edited January 2024
    Ghedebrav said:

    I recently started going to AA groups for alcohol, and ticked over a month of not drinking at the weekend - probably the longest I've gone without a drink since I was sixteen. AA is a fascinating place with a real gamut of society. For what it's worth I don't think I had an alcohol dependence, but definitely a compulsive and unhealthy relationship with booze, and was on a bad trajectory with it.

    Not sure I feel 'better' per se, but I've definitely saved a lot of money and lost a little weight. Still figuring out how to replace alcohol as a defining element of my socialising though.
    I hope you do well with AA.

    I find the group interesting as an example of a very efficient charity - they have around 20 staff and a £2.5m budget, yet are able to run an average of around 140 meetings a day across the country - taking 365 days as the denominator, reaching around 40k people.

  • kinabalu said:

    The big news for me today isn't Gaza or any of that, it's on the vaping. The ban on disposables. They are the one thing that's worked to get me off the fags (after 45 years on them) so I'm a bit worried to put it mildly.

    That said, I think this must be about the most slam dunk public health measures a government could ever wish for. Disposable vapes are turning large numbers of young people who've never smoked into nicotine addicts and they're an environmental plague.

    So, you know, fuck you Rishi and well done Rishi on this one.

    Good morning

    I have just listened to Sunak explain that it is a free vote but that he wants to stop children smoking and at the same time acknowledges vaping is helpful to quiting smoking so vaping will still be available to adults

    I also note Labour support the change so it will become law
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,509

    I do find it funny that the Tories do things and then are criticised for being stupid because it doesn’t help them.

    Clearly they must be stupid because no one would make a change to the electoral system except for partisan reasons.

    Do you think it’s possible that they are making the change because they believe that it’s the *right* thing to do and don’t care about the electoral consequences?
    One should make changes because it is the right thing to do I agree. But do you really think that is the case here? What on earth is the justification for letting people vote who left over 15 years ago? They have new homes in another country. They don't pay taxes here or benefit or contribute to life in any way here. They are gone.

    The only thing that should be in dispute is where the cut off should be (1 year, 3 years, 5 years ...) but whatever it is, 15 years is well past the limit.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,804

    Pineapple on pizza/radiohead.../AI/UAP's.

    I note that @leon is very quiet about the recent story from the states about UAP's.

    https://theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/27/sean-kirkpatrick-pentagon-ufo-conspiracy-theory-myths

    As I have said all along. Now @leon needs to admit that I am right.

    (Is this how you do it? - Asking for a friend)
    Pretty easy win for you though - no UFO conspiracy!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,509

    Pineapple on pizza/radiohead.../AI/UAP's.

    I note that @leon is very quiet about the recent story from the states about UAP's.

    https://theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/27/sean-kirkpatrick-pentagon-ufo-conspiracy-theory-myths

    As I have said all along. Now @leon needs to admit that I am right.

    (Is this how you do it? - Asking for a friend)
    Almost perfect, but you haven't mentioned that you have a higher IQ than everyone else here and that you are tempted to leave because we are all too stupid to engage with you properly.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,933

    AV
    And EV. Merits thereof. Plus:

    - Tidal power stations
    - Ukraine
    - A Leon parallel thread
    - Electoral qualities of Boris
    - 20mph speed limits
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    isam said:

    Well done!

    I stopped 24 years ago, and can’t believe I ever started. Couldn’t pay me to smoke now.

    Despite being a relatively heavy smoker, 20 a day I’d say, I didn’t find it that difficult to give up; I just did the AA style “I won’t have my first cigarette of the day” and kept putting it off. If I fancied one I’d try to eat a fruit pastille without chewing


    Stopping ages ago, what helped me was the sense of getting addicted to not smoking and all the things that went with its absence.
  • This is massive from Truss.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    edited January 2024

    Pineapple on pizza/radiohead.../AI/UAP's.

    I note that @leon is very quiet about the recent story from the states about UAP's.

    https://theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/27/sean-kirkpatrick-pentagon-ufo-conspiracy-theory-myths

    As I have said all along. Now @leon needs to admit that I am right.

    (Is this how you do it? - Asking for a friend)
    Er, what? Remember that I have always agreed with ex-PBer SeanT on this matter. As he put it in his Spectator piece on this subject:

    "To my mind, there are five main possible explanations [for the present UFO flap], in descending order of probability.

    1. The US establishment – Pentagon to press – is engaged in a complex cross-party conspiracy of psyops to unnerve and mystify America’s adversaries, especially the Chinese. Perhaps they want to convince them America possesses advanced alien technology, and America has been reverse engineering it for decades.

    2. The US establishment has some incredible new military tech – something truly astonishing, like anti-gravity aircraft – and they’ve had it for ages, and they want to hide it from everyone: Americans as much as the Chinese.

    3. The US establishment has gone collectively mad, or is suffering some mass hallucination, stemming from a few credulous individuals (a process known in psychology as ‘contagion’).

    4. The US military/elite sincerely believes we are being visited by non human intelligence – but they’re wrong.

    5. The US military/elite sincerely believes we are being visited by non human intelligence – and they are right."

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ufos-or-not-something-is-up/

    That is literally what is written

    Kirkpatrick's testimony seems to be a combination of explanations 3, 2 and 1

    Some credulous individuals. perhaps being exploited by others for Psyops, plus a bit of advanced tech

    It's also worth noting that Kirkpatrick is not the last word on the subject, and Grusch remains hard to explain
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    148grss said:

    "As of 22 January, over 26,000 people (25,105 Palestinian and 1,410 Israeli) have been killed in the Israel–Hamas war, including 83 journalists (76 Palestinian, 4 Israeli and 3 Lebanese) and over 136 UNRWA aid workers."

    The Palestinians are clearly the victims here. And, for better or worse, the group that represent the interests of the Palestinians in Gaza are Hamas.
    You can't argue that Palestinian civilians are not responsible for the attempts by Hamas to exterminate Jews and at the same time argue that Hamas are the legitimate representatives of the Palestinians in Gaza. You have to choose.

    If Hamas represent Gaza, then the civilians there are complicit in the attacks in early October, and legitimately part of a full-scale total war. If Gazan Palestinian civilians are innocent bystanders, then perhaps they need to find other people to advocate for themselves then Hamas.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    kjh said:

    Almost perfect, but you haven't mentioned that you have a higher IQ than everyone else here and that you are tempted to leave because we are all too stupid to engage with you properly.
    I thought that was @Chris.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536

    You can't argue that Palestinian civilians are not responsible for the attempts by Hamas to exterminate Jews and at the same time argue that Hamas are the legitimate representatives of the Palestinians in Gaza. You have to choose.

    If Hamas represent Gaza, then the civilians there are complicit in the attacks in early October, and legitimately part of a full-scale total war. If Gazan Palestinian civilians are innocent bystanders, then perhaps they need to find other people to advocate for themselves then Hamas.
    Precisely. All the angst over whether the BBC and others would describe Hamas as terrorists missed the point. They're so much more than terrorists.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,302
    kinabalu said:

    The big news for me today isn't Gaza or any of that, it's on the vaping. The ban on disposables. They are the one thing that's worked to get me off the fags (after 45 years on them) so I'm a bit worried to put it mildly.

    That said, I think this must be about the most slam dunk public health measure a government could ever wish for. Disposable vapes are turning large numbers of young people who've never smoked into nicotine addicts and they're an environmental plague.

    So, you know, fuck you Rishi and well done Rishi on this one.

    First off, congratulations.

    Secondly, have you tried a reusable one? There are a lot of options on the market and they are not quite so daunting as they are made out to be (at the top end there is a lot of “pro-vaping” terminology/products etc that are a bit mind-boggling but these aren’t things you need to concern yourself with if you’re just looking for a product to keep you away from cigarettes). I vaped for around 4 years, though have now been off nicotine all together for about 2 years now.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    kjh said:

    Almost perfect, but you haven't mentioned that you have a higher IQ than everyone else here and that you are tempted to leave because we are all too stupid to engage with you properly.
    Well

    1 I do

    2 I am

    3 You are

    Given what I have just heretofore adduced, from the Speccie
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771
    Leon said:

    Er, what? Remember that I have always agreed with ex-PBer SeanT on this matter. As he put it in his Spectator piece on this subject:

    "To my mind, there are five main possible explanations [for the present UFO flap], in descending order of probability.

    1. The US establishment – Pentagon to press – is engaged in a complex cross-party conspiracy of psyops to unnerve and mystify America’s adversaries, especially the Chinese. Perhaps they want to convince them America possesses advanced alien technology, and America has been reverse engineering it for decades.

    2. The US establishment has some incredible new military tech – something truly astonishing, like anti-gravity aircraft – and they’ve had it for ages, and they want to hide it from everyone: Americans as much as the Chinese.

    3. The US establishment has gone collectively mad, or is suffering some mass hallucination, stemming from a few credulous individuals (a process known in psychology as ‘contagion’).

    4. The US military/elite sincerely believes we are being visited by non human intelligence – but they’re wrong.

    5. The US military/elite sincerely believes we are being visited by non human intelligence – and they are right."

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ufos-or-not-something-is-up/

    That is literally what is written

    Kirkpatrick's testimony seems to be a combination of explanations 3, 2 and 1

    Some credulous individuals. perhaps being exploited by others for Psyops, plus a bit of advanced tech

    It's also worth noting that Kirkpatrick is not the last word on the subject, and Grusch remains hard to explain
    I also wonder why Trump hasn't rambled extensively on the subject. It seems prime Trumpian lunacy material.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    MattW said:

    I hope you do well with AA.

    I find the group interesting as an example of a very efficient charity - they have around 20 staff and a £2.5m budget, yet are able to run an average of around 140 meetings a day across the country - taking 365 days as the denominator, reaching around 40k people.

    The wonderful NY crime novels of Lawrence Block are fascinating on the subject of alcohol addiction and AA, a recurring theme throughout, though not for the fainthearted or squeamish.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    mwadams said:

    I also wonder why Trump hasn't rambled extensively on the subject. It seems prime Trumpian lunacy material.
    Because, like Dennis Rodman, he is one of Them.
  • kjh said:

    I'm sure many Tory counties embraced the comprehensive system. I don't have the details and can't be bothered to look them up, but during this time I am certain that Surrey would have been solidly Tory and it went comprehensive. What about East Sussex, West Sussex, Hampshire, etc, etc. Aren't all of these places that were solidly Tory at that time and went comprehensive?
    Hampshire wasn't as solidly conservative as all that- the coastal strip from Portsmouth to Southampton was heavily populated and more mixed, but yes, a lot of Conservative councils were quite happy to run with comprehensivisation. After all, by the 1970s a lot of county councillors would have been getting cross letters from nice middle class parents whose children hadn't made the cut.

    Remember, folks:

    You can't have a grammar school system without a secondary modern system, and very few heads or teachers have the skills to make those work well. That's why places like Kent don't do well on social mobility.

    Providing wide access to secondary education where it hadn't existed before undoubtedly improved social mobility, but a lot of the mobility was due to changes in the economy. Someone had to do all the new, more middle class jobs.

    In the 40's and 50's, we believed in rationing scarce things, and an academic secondary education was one of those. That need has gone, and so has the belief in rationing. What right has Blankshire County Council to tell you that your child shouldn't go to an academic school?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,626
    Leon said:

    Er, what? Remember that I have always agreed with ex-PBer SeanT on this matter. As he put it in his Spectator piece on this subject:

    "To my mind, there are five main possible explanations [for the present UFO flap], in descending order of probability.

    1. The US establishment – Pentagon to press – is engaged in a complex cross-party conspiracy of psyops to unnerve and mystify America’s adversaries, especially the Chinese. Perhaps they want to convince them America possesses advanced alien technology, and America has been reverse engineering it for decades.

    2. The US establishment has some incredible new military tech – something truly astonishing, like anti-gravity aircraft – and they’ve had it for ages, and they want to hide it from everyone: Americans as much as the Chinese.

    3. The US establishment has gone collectively mad, or is suffering some mass hallucination, stemming from a few credulous individuals (a process known in psychology as ‘contagion’).

    4. The US military/elite sincerely believes we are being visited by non human intelligence – but they’re wrong.

    5. The US military/elite sincerely believes we are being visited by non human intelligence – and they are right."

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ufos-or-not-something-is-up/

    That is literally what is written

    Kirkpatrick's testimony seems to be a combination of explanations 3, 2 and 1

    Some credulous individuals. perhaps being exploited by others for Psyops, plus a bit of advanced tech

    It's also worth noting that Kirkpatrick is not the last word on the subject, and Grusch remains hard to explain
    But what is the 'establishment'? This is just a few stories in the press and media at large. There is not a shred of evidence for 2 (anti-grav aircraft? or of 1 - a huge conspiracy. 3 is closesr to the mark - some credulous fools (Bigelow) and the media picking up on it, probably via a thrill seeking, drama queen of a flint dildo maker.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,454
    edited January 2024

    What are your views on UNRWA officials lending vehicles to Hamas for the October 7 attacks? And for allowing hostages to be held at their facilities?
    Unlike other so called 'Western Countries' Israel lies. Anyone watching their spokespeople and ministers over the last several months know this. Not even their most ardent followers now accept announcements by the Israeli government at face value. It is one of the reasons their so called 'friends' are peeling off at such a rate
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,815

    First off, congratulations.

    Secondly, have you tried a reusable one? There are a lot of options on the market and they are not quite so daunting as they are made out to be (at the top end there is a lot of “pro-vaping” terminology/products etc that are a bit mind-boggling but these aren’t things you need to concern yourself with if you’re just looking for a product to keep you away from cigarettes). I vaped for around 4 years, though have now been off nicotine all together for about 2 years now.

    Mixed feelings about vaping.

    On one hand, I tend to the libertarian view on these things. Every step of the way, I've viewed the gradual erosion of smokers' freedoms with dismay - banning smoking in pubs, hiding cigarettes in cupboards, etc. And I feel the same about this. I don't like smoking, but I like the gradual creep of rules even less.
    On the other hand, vape shops are a hideous eyesore and a blight on the public realm and I wish vaping had never been invented. At least cigarettes used to have some handsome and stylish advertising and branding.

    Off thread: I'm WFHing today and my cats are being dicks. One of them just walked onto my desk and very carefully and deliberately put her paw on the 'off' button, looking at me blankly as she did so; then batted my pencil onto the floor and settled down on my 'to do' list.
    Still better than a dog, though.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    MattW said:

    I hope you do well with AA.

    I find the group interesting as an example of a very efficient charity - they have around 20 staff and a £2.5m budget, yet are able to run an average of around 140 meetings a day across the country - taking 365 days as the denominator, reaching around 40k people.

    Thank you.

    I agree - it is very efficient, and known also to be quite effective too, despite it being hard to pin down precisely why (tbh for me I think it's helpful to be around people with whom you can be totally honest, without judgement, and know that the people you are sharing with understand your behaviour better than most of your friends and family will).

    The 'higher power' and steps stuff can - understandably - be a bit off-putting, but tbh from what I've seen it's up to you how much you want to engage with that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    mwadams said:

    I also wonder why Trump hasn't rambled extensively on the subject. It seems prime Trumpian lunacy material.
    The weird thing is that Trump is the ONLY living US president who, as far as I know, has not made cryptic, suggestive or evasive comments on the subject of UFOs

    Obama, Bill Clinton and Dubya Bush have all said weird things

    Biden has been evasive

    The late Jimmy Carter was a true believer

    I think even Bush Senior was a little cryptic

    Trump came right out and said: It's all a load of bollocks

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703

    You can't argue that Palestinian civilians are not responsible for the attempts by Hamas to exterminate Jews and at the same time argue that Hamas are the legitimate representatives of the Palestinians in Gaza. You have to choose.

    If Hamas represent Gaza, then the civilians there are complicit in the attacks in early October, and legitimately part of a full-scale total war. If Gazan Palestinian civilians are innocent bystanders, then perhaps they need to find other people to advocate for themselves then Hamas.
    This is the central premise - and contradiction - that those pro-Hamas, will no one think of the innocent civilian types always overlook.

    They can't both be innocent civilians and also have voted Hamas into power. Hamas are not some rogue group operating on the fringes of Gaza society. They are its government.

    The standard response is that there hasn't been an election in many years so the broad mass of Gaza civilians are not Hamas supporters. But again, they are the government running the country. And it is legitimate for Israel to be at war with the government/country.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    algarkirk said:

    The wonderful NY crime novels of Lawrence Block are fascinating on the subject of alcohol addiction and AA, a recurring theme throughout, though not for the fainthearted or squeamish.
    I do sometimes wonder how many people I'm sitting with are just doing research for a script or a novel.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782

    But what is the 'establishment'? This is just a few stories in the press and media at large. There is not a shred of evidence for 2 (anti-grav aircraft? or of 1 - a huge conspiracy. 3 is closesr to the mark - some credulous fools (Bigelow) and the media picking up on it, probably via a thrill seeking, drama queen of a flint dildo maker.
    Gosh, who knew I had such power as an anonymous commenter on PB, able to sway public debate and get ex CIA chiefs and US admirals and US senators and US intel chiefs and President Obama to say Yeah, there is something up there we don't understand

    I mean, I know PB is influential and I am the mosr articulate and intelligent commenter on here (as we see today) but still. Wow. Thanks!
  • Leon said:

    The weird thing is that Trump is the ONLY living US president who, as far as I know, has not made cryptic, suggestive or evasive comments on the subject of UFOs

    Obama, Bill Clinton and Dubya Bush have all said weird things

    Biden has been evasive

    The late Jimmy Carter was a true believer

    I think even Bush Senior was a little cryptic

    Trump came right out and said: It's all a load of bollocks

    Isn't Jimmy Carter still alive?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    fwiw I gave up smoking (such as I smoked which was a few Kent and Sobranie and ofc No.10 and No.6s) one day when I was 16yrs old thinking dear god I'm killing myself. Not smoked since, perhaps the odd cigar and I don't like those much either.

    I wish I had had at some point the same damascene revelation about booze. But I really enjoy a glass (or two) of wine, and sometimes, occasionally, a very strong gin (no ice, no lemon, gin from the freezer, tonic from the fridge). I know it is bad for my health but can't or won't stop. That said I have a fake G&T, ice and a slice, every day at around 6pm and that is nice also. Oh that there would be a great non-alcoholic wine, but there isn't.

    I drink a huge amount less than I used to (as do many friends and family) and really like the feeling of not having drunk the previous night/week, which happens often.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,296
    TOPPING said:

    People are dying in large numbers. How large we don't know because Hamas is controlling that narrative but certainly large. Buildings are being flattened, infrastructure is being destroyed.

    All fairly war-ish. But South Africa says hold on this is genocide. And some lawyer looks at the supposed body count and says why yes it could be.

    Such a sequence could apply to most any conflict of the past 100 years.

    Is Israel systematically trying to kill every Palestinian? I don't think it is. Or if it is it is being pretty cack-handed about it.
    The incoming famine could be a efficient delivery vehicle with limited apportionment of blame if Netanyahu is so minded.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/28/famine-in-gaza-is-being-made-inevitable-says-un-rapporteur

    Make no mistake, Hamas are a death cult that needs to be crushed.

    The incoming collective punishment of Palestinians by Netanyahu via famine might shift the dial towards adjectives that we have hitherto avoided. The numbers involved could be eye-watetingly high.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,302
    edited January 2024
    Cookie said:

    Mixed feelings about vaping.

    On one hand, I tend to the libertarian view on these things. Every step of the way, I've viewed the gradual erosion of smokers' freedoms with dismay - banning smoking in pubs, hiding cigarettes in cupboards, etc. And I feel the same about this. I don't like smoking, but I like the gradual creep of rules even less.
    On the other hand, vape shops are a hideous eyesore and a blight on the public realm and I wish vaping had never been invented. At least cigarettes used to have some handsome and stylish advertising and branding.

    Off thread: I'm WFHing today and my cats are being dicks. One of them just walked onto my desk and very carefully and deliberately put her paw on the 'off' button, looking at me blankly as she did so; then batted my pencil onto the floor and settled down on my 'to do' list.
    Still better than a dog, though.
    Vaping for me was an invaluable tool to get me off cigarettes. I think it is very likely I would still be smoking today if it wasn’t for them.

    However I do have a mixed relationship with it. It served its original purpose, for which I will be forever grateful, but lockdown meant it became much more accessible 24/7 at home (I was never one being comfortable walking along a street blowing great plumes of vapour at whichever poor sod was downwind of me), and if I were to assess it, I’d say it actually meant I was more nicotine reliant than I had been previously. No lingering smell or nasty ash - it really doesn’t create a huge incentive against using it as often as you like at home. I did eventually need to force myself off it, because it was becoming as obsessive a thing, if not more, than the cigarettes.

    To be blunt, I am in full support of smokers making the transition to it. I would advise non-smokers just thinking it’s a cool habit to take up, that it’s a very big mistake to start.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    Banning smoking and related activities (ie vaping) is like banning high stakes FOBTs.

    An affront to liberty and freedom but a Good Thing nevertheless.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782

    Isn't Jimmy Carter still alive?
    Is he?? Was it his wife that keeled over, then?

    If so, sorry Jimmy!!

    Incidentally he was/is a TOTAL believer in UFOs - after he had some personal first-hand experience of one. He may indeed have seen a couple, IIRC
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    Taz said:

    What do we need for the holy trinity, or tranity ? Brexit ?
    Grammar schools
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,675

    You can't argue that Palestinian civilians are not responsible for the attempts by Hamas to exterminate Jews and at the same time argue that Hamas are the legitimate representatives of the Palestinians in Gaza. You have to choose.

    If Hamas represent Gaza, then the civilians there are complicit in the attacks in early October, and legitimately part of a full-scale total war. If Gazan Palestinian civilians are innocent bystanders, then perhaps they need to find other people to advocate for themselves then Hamas.

    That's a very odd view, even leaving aside the less than perfect nature of democracy in Gaza. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021–22_Palestinian_local_elections for the background. Anyway, suppose that Hamas had won a fair election. Does that make every citizen complicit in everything that follows? Are you and I complicit in any action taken by Sunak, and if he chose to launch attacks that killed civilians, would we therefore be legitimate targets for reprisals?

    Killing civilians is always undesirable, and routinely doing so without a reasonable military excuse is a war crime. Retaliation for other civilians being killed is not a reasonable excuse.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,629
    edited January 2024
    Ghedebrav said:

    Thank you.

    I agree - it is very efficient, and known also to be quite effective too, despite it being hard to pin down precisely why (tbh for me I think it's helpful to be around people with whom you can be totally honest, without judgement, and know that the people you are sharing with understand your behaviour better than most of your friends and family will).

    The 'higher power' and steps stuff can - understandably - be a bit off-putting, but tbh from what I've seen it's up to you how much you want to engage with that.
    I have my own ideas about why it is effective - partly to do with consistency and sticking to the knitting over 75 years, but also to do with finding where the "centre" of organisation and values needs to be which is an anchor, and how to combine that with open edges facilitating access without judgement.

    So creating a supportive community / network with the appropriate touching points for members for as long as they need them, but within a limited sector of life that works against a wider dependency.

    There must be some studies on it somewhere !
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,287
    Ghedebrav said:

    I do sometimes wonder how many people I'm sitting with are just doing research for a script or a novel.
    Where are you sitting?
  • TOPPING said:

    Dear god Gaza _and_ trans rights. All on a Monday morning on PB.

    Dana International won Eurovision for Israel in 1998!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    edited January 2024

    Vaping for me was an invaluable tool to get me off cigarettes. I think it is very likely I would still be smoking today if it wasn’t for them.

    However I do have a mixed relationship with it. It served its original purpose, for which I will be forever grateful, but lockdown meant it became much more accessible 24/7 at home (I was never one being comfortable walking along a street blowing great plumes of vapour at whichever poor sod was downwind of me), and if I were to assess it, I’d say it actually meant I was more nicotine reliant than I had been previously. No lingering smell or nasty ash - it really doesn’t create a huge incentive against using it as often as you like at home. I did eventually need to force myself off it, because it was becoming as obsessive a thing, if not more, than the cigarettes.

    To be blunt, I am in full support of smokers making the transition to it. I would advise non-smokers just thinking it’s a cool habit to take up, that it’s a very big mistake to start.

    The interesting stat is that the trend for smoking cessation has actually slowed down since the advent of vaping. Which suggests vaping isn't in general an effective smoking cessation tool.

    I do accept it could be useful in getting people to smoke less.
  • You can't argue that Palestinian civilians are not responsible for the attempts by Hamas to exterminate Jews and at the same time argue that Hamas are the legitimate representatives of the Palestinians in Gaza. You have to choose.

    If Hamas represent Gaza, then the civilians there are complicit in the attacks in early October, and legitimately part of a full-scale total war. If Gazan Palestinian civilians are innocent bystanders, then perhaps they need to find other people to advocate for themselves then Hamas.
    Unfortunately, there haven't been elections in Gaza OR the West Bank since 2006...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,111
    @DeltapollUK

    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
    Labour lead narrows to fourteen points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 29% (+1)
    Lab 43% (-2)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Other 19% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 26th - 29th January 2024
    Sample: 2,064 GB adults
    (Changes from 19th - 22nd January 2024)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703

    The incoming famine could be a efficient delivery vehicle with limited apportionment of blame if Netanyahu is so minded.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/28/famine-in-gaza-is-being-made-inevitable-says-un-rapporteur

    Make no mistake, Hamas are a death cult that needs to be crushed.

    The incoming collective punishment of Palestinians by Netanyahu via famine might shift the dial towards adjectives that we have hitherto avoided. The numbers involved could be eye-watetingly high.
    Couple of things here.

    First, did the Allies "collectively punish" the Germans or were they just at war with them. :Let's not go round in circles but Hamas is the democratically-elected government of Gaza.

    Secondly, let's wait for the famine to materialise before we castigate Israel for it. When we see pictures a la Michael Buerk 40 years ago (god help us) then we can worry. And of course puff pieces as there have been on Band/Live Aid of course the international community got that wrong also and instead of helping the starving, propped up Mengistu and the Eritreans.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,626

    Unfortunately, there haven't been elections in Gaza OR the West Bank since 2006...
    And why is that?
  • The incoming famine could be a efficient delivery vehicle with limited apportionment of blame if Netanyahu is so minded.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/28/famine-in-gaza-is-being-made-inevitable-says-un-rapporteur

    Make no mistake, Hamas are a death cult that needs to be crushed.

    The incoming collective punishment of Palestinians by Netanyahu via famine might shift the dial towards adjectives that we have hitherto avoided. The numbers involved could be eye-watetingly high.
    SPAMALEK!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,804

    First off, congratulations.

    Secondly, have you tried a reusable one? There are a lot of options on the market and they are not quite so daunting as they are made out to be (at the top end there is a lot of “pro-vaping” terminology/products etc that are a bit mind-boggling but these aren’t things you need to concern yourself with if you’re just looking for a product to keep you away from cigarettes). I vaped for around 4 years, though have now been off nicotine all together for about 2 years now.
    Cheers thanks. And congrats yourself - more so in fact since unlike me you've dealt with the core (nicotine) addiction. I found the re-usable kits too much of a faff and not sufficiently 'like' smoking last time (hence the godsend of the disposables) but I'll be looking at it again since needs must. There's also that NEAFS product which looks worth a shot.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,111
    ...
  • And why is that?
    You catch on well, my friend...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,626
    Scott_xP said:

    @DeltapollUK

    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
    Labour lead narrows to fourteen points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 29% (+1)
    Lab 43% (-2)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Other 19% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 26th - 29th January 2024
    Sample: 2,064 GB adults
    (Changes from 19th - 22nd January 2024)

    The swing back has started...

    (Or more realistically random fluctuations around the mean!)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,716

    I do find it funny that the Tories do things and then are criticised for being stupid because it doesn’t help them.

    Clearly they must be stupid because no one would make a change to the electoral system except for partisan reasons.

    Do you think it’s possible that they are making the change because they believe that it’s the *right* thing to do and don’t care about the electoral consequences?
    This government ?
    Frankly, no.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,659
    edited January 2024

    Oh, NEW THREAD, Btw

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038
    edited January 2024
    kjh said:

    I'm sure many Tory counties embraced the comprehensive system. I don't have the details and can't be bothered to look them up, but during this time I am certain that Surrey would have been solidly Tory and it went comprehensive. What about East Sussex, West Sussex, Hampshire, etc, etc. Aren't all of these places that were solidly Tory at that time and went comprehensive?
    Of the remaining grammar school counties eg Kent, Bucks and Lincolnshire they were all Tory controlled as were areas like Poole, Southend, Chelmsford, Trafford, Rugby and Ripon that also still keep them
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771
    Leon said:

    The weird thing is that Trump is the ONLY living US president who, as far as I know, has not made cryptic, suggestive or evasive comments on the subject of UFOs

    Obama, Bill Clinton and Dubya Bush have all said weird things

    Biden has been evasive

    The late Jimmy Carter was a true believer

    I think even Bush Senior was a little cryptic

    Trump came right out and said: It's all a load of bollocks

    This, I think, lends credence to the "being deliberately and subtly vague about the UFO stuff helps keep people guessing about the USA's technological capabilities" case. I can believe that Trump couldn't grasp that position at all.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703

    That's a very odd view, even leaving aside the less than perfect nature of democracy in Gaza. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021–22_Palestinian_local_elections for the background. Anyway, suppose that Hamas had won a fair election. Does that make every citizen complicit in everything that follows? Are you and I complicit in any action taken by Sunak, and if he chose to launch attacks that killed civilians, would we therefore be legitimate targets for reprisals?

    Killing civilians is always undesirable, and routinely doing so without a reasonable military excuse is a war crime. Retaliation for other civilians being killed is not a reasonable excuse.
    Israel believes it is at war, Nick. And if the UK went to war with, say, oh I don't know, "Terror", then we become legitimate targets of the terrorists. Or France, less improbably. Of course we would. If our government goes to war with another country then that puts us at war.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,626

    You catch on well, my friend...
    Well in my (very limited) opinion its down to Hamas...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703

    Unfortunately, there haven't been elections in Gaza OR the West Bank since 2006...
    Bingo.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,227
    FF43 said:

    Grammar schools
    Cashless trans ULEZ grammar schools.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,287
    I need to point out that if you had backed the Green at 14 in the Finnish Presidential Election you could now be laying them at 9 (Betfair Exchange). If you had soaked up all the liquidity I think your *profit* would be mid three figures. I hate to get Ferengi on your arses, but that would have been a nice little earner.

    (Buffs nails)

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/01/21/finland/

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    edited January 2024

    That's a very odd view, even leaving aside the less than perfect nature of democracy in Gaza. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021–22_Palestinian_local_elections for the background. Anyway, suppose that Hamas had won a fair election. Does that make every citizen complicit in everything that follows? Are you and I complicit in any action taken by Sunak, and if he chose to launch attacks that killed civilians, would we therefore be legitimate targets for reprisals?

    Killing civilians is always undesirable, and routinely doing so without a reasonable military excuse is a war crime. Retaliation for other civilians being killed is not a reasonable excuse.
    I'm not saying that civilians are legitimate targets in war. That's a clumsy way of phrasing it. But in a full-scale war between two states, civilian casualties are inevitable, this is one reason why we try so hard to avoid war. So you cannot point to civilian casualties and say that only one side in the war is responsible for them. It's just something that happens in war, and that we should minimise as much as possible.

    If Hamas/Gaza didn't want a war then they shouldn't have started one.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,716

    What are your views on UNRWA officials lending vehicles to Hamas for the October 7 attacks? And for allowing hostages to be held at their facilities?
    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/27/middleeast/unrwa-israel-hamas-october-7-allegations-intl/index.html
    ..Details remain scant. Neither Israel nor UNRWA have specified the nature of the alleged involvement of UNRWA employees in the events of October 7.

    An Israeli official told CNN on Friday that Israel shared information about 12 staffers allegedly involved in the October 7 attacks both with UNRWA and the US.

    The head of Israel’s Military Intelligence Directorate, Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva, met with senior US officials on Friday and gave them “specific names and which organizations they are affiliated with, whether Hamas or PIJ (Palestinian Islamic Jihad) or others, and what exactly they did on October 7,” the Israeli official said.

    “We showed them that we had solid intelligence from difference sources.”

    An Israeli official familiar with how the intelligence was gathered said it was taken from Hamas computers and documents confiscated during operations in Gaza, and from interrogations of detainees and alleged terrorists.

    Israeli officials say some of the attackers who were killed or detained on October 7 had UNRWA IDs on them. CNN was not shown the IDs or other intelligence.

    UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini has said he received “information about the alleged involvement of several employees.” To protect the agency’s ability to deliver humanitarian assistance in Gaza, he decided “to immediately terminate the contracts of these staff members and launch an investigation in order to establish the truth,” a statement said.

    Any UNRWA employee who was involved in acts of terror “will be held accountable, including through criminal prosecution,” he added.

    In a statement Sunday, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said nine of the 12 UNRWA staff members at the center of the allegations had been fired. One other was dead and the identities of two others were still “being clarified.”

    “Any UN employee involved in acts of terror will be held accountable, including through criminal prosecution,” Guterres said, adding that an independent review is forthcoming...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    mwadams said:

    This, I think, lends credence to the "being deliberately and subtly vague about the UFO stuff helps keep people guessing about the USA's technological capabilities" case. I can believe that Trump couldn't grasp that position at all.
    That’s a really astute point. Hadn’t looked at it that way
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,716
    edited January 2024
    kinabalu said:

    Pretty easy win for you though - no UFO conspiracy!
    Well actually the allegation is that there is one - to produce bogus evidence.

    Except it's not some Machiavellian psy-ops, as Leon theorised, but a bunch of obsessed dweebs just doing their thing.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    algarkirk said:

    Stopping ages ago, what helped me was the sense of getting addicted to not smoking and all the things that went with its absence.
    Nicotine is the most pointless drug of all time. Highly addictive yet with minimal/zero buzz.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    TOPPING said:

    Couple of things here.

    First, did the Allies "collectively punish" the Germans or were they just at war with them. :Let's not go round in circles but Hamas is the democratically-elected government of Gaza.

    Secondly, let's wait for the famine to materialise before we castigate Israel for it. When we see pictures a la Michael Buerk 40 years ago (god help us) then we can worry. And of course puff pieces as there have been on Band/Live Aid of course the international community got that wrong also and instead of helping the starving, propped up Mengistu and the Eritreans.
    Yes, the allies did collectively punish Germans and things like the Dresden bombings would be considered war crimes under the laws we have now.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,287

    Nicotine is the most pointless drug of all time. Highly addictive yet with minimal/zero buzz.
    Yes, but in its day smoking had an unspoken purpose, which was to relieve tension and reduce hunger pangs. There is a part of me that is convinced the rise in obesity and diabetes is at least partly due to the drive against smoking.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,287
    148grss said:

    Yes, the allies did collectively punish Germans and things like the Dresden bombings would be considered war crimes under the laws we have now.
    Iiuc dambusting and flamethrowers were made into war crimes after WW2
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,198

    Hampshire wasn't as solidly conservative as all that- the coastal strip from Portsmouth to Southampton was heavily populated and more mixed, but yes, a lot of Conservative councils were quite happy to run with comprehensivisation. After all, by the 1970s a lot of county councillors would have been getting cross letters from nice middle class parents whose children hadn't made the cut.

    Remember, folks:

    You can't have a grammar school system without a secondary modern system, and very few heads or teachers have the skills to make those work well. That's why places like Kent don't do well on social mobility.

    Providing wide access to secondary education where it hadn't existed before undoubtedly improved social mobility, but a lot of the mobility was due to changes in the economy. Someone had to do all the new, more middle class jobs.

    In the 40's and 50's, we believed in rationing scarce things, and an academic secondary education was one of those. That need has gone, and so has the belief in rationing. What right has Blankshire County Council to tell you that your child shouldn't go to an academic school?
    Which is why the idea of streaming per subject comes up. A Grammar school inside every school.

    The private school I went to did that.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    TOPPING said:

    Banning smoking and related activities (ie vaping) is like banning high stakes FOBTs.

    An affront to liberty and freedom but a Good Thing nevertheless.

    Yeah - I went on a bit of journey with this too. At the time, despite being a non-smoker, I felt it was an illiberal infringement on freedoms. But then after my first morning waking up after the pub and *not* stinking of second hand smoke, I started to see a bit of an upside. Then seeing the significant drops in smoking, and hearing from friends who were nudged into giving up because of the ban... I have pretty much gone 180 on my opinion on it.
  • On a call with a colleague from Technical. New Brexit rules come into effect on Wednesday. A DEFRA online training seminar at the end of last week had 800 importers on it, and the polled how many were ready for the new rules on Wednesday.

    4%.

    The UK border will be flexible for 3 months - as long as importers are trying to do the new process. The issue is foreign customs officials who are going to impose our new rules from day 1. Nobody is ready, and we already have a list of products where (a) the existing product will no longer be shipped but (b) the proposed UK compliant product isn't ready and won't be for months.
  • On a call with a colleague from Technical. New Brexit rules come into effect on Wednesday. A DEFRA online training seminar at the end of last week had 800 importers on it, and the polled how many were ready for the new rules on Wednesday.

    4%.

    The UK border will be flexible for 3 months - as long as importers are trying to do the new process. The issue is foreign customs officials who are going to impose our new rules from day 1. Nobody is ready, and we already have a list of products where (a) the existing product will no longer be shipped but (b) the proposed UK compliant product isn't ready and won't be for months.

    Three months, you say?

    Anything else happening in British politics in three months time?
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,108
    TOPPING said:

    This is the central premise - and contradiction - that those pro-Hamas, will no one think of the innocent civilian types always overlook.

    They can't both be innocent civilians and also have voted Hamas into power. Hamas are not some rogue group operating on the fringes of Gaza society. They are its government.

    The standard response is that there hasn't been an election in many years so the broad mass of Gaza civilians are not Hamas supporters. But again, they are the government running the country. And it is legitimate for Israel to be at war with the government/country.
    Look at the population demographics - approximately 35% of Gaza's population are old enough to have voted in the 2006 election and Hamas won 45% of that vote, so only 16% of the present population voted for Hamas. Truly the sins of the fathers etc...
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,764
    Roger said:

    Unlike other so called 'Western Countries' Israel lies. Anyone watching their
    spokespeople and ministers over the last several months know this. Not even their most ardent followers now accept announcements by the Israeli government at face value. It is one of the reasons their so called 'friends' are peeling off at such a rate
    So you aren’t even prepared to consider the evidence that persuaded Germany to suspend funding.

    Gotcha.

    Israel is uniquely evil.

    Gotcha

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,764

    Yes but that is just progress. As I've said before, Henry VIII had many palaces but would now be called poor because he had no mobile phone.
    Obese
    Children from multiple women
    Dependent on the state for income
    Linked to the violent death of many people

    Hmmmm… I think he’d have at least an ASBO
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,296

    Which is why the idea of streaming per subject comes up. A Grammar school inside every school.

    The private school I went to did that.
    My comp did that and it worked well.

    My grammar school streamed not by subject but by average performance in the 3rd year exams. An A and a B stream. The B stream were referred by some teachers as "less able" despite students having passed the 11 plus three years earlier. And the Secondary School head in the town treated his school as a borstal with exclusively CSE exams at the end of the five years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038

    Hampshire wasn't as solidly conservative as all that- the coastal strip from Portsmouth to Southampton was heavily populated and more mixed, but yes, a lot of Conservative councils were quite happy to run with comprehensivisation. After all, by the 1970s a lot of county councillors would have been getting cross letters from nice middle class parents whose children hadn't made the cut.

    Remember, folks:

    You can't have a grammar school system without a secondary modern system, and very few heads or teachers have the skills to make those work well. That's why places like Kent don't do well on social mobility.

    Providing wide access to secondary education where it hadn't existed before undoubtedly improved social mobility, but a lot of the mobility was due to changes in the economy. Someone had to do all the new, more middle class jobs.

    In the 40's and 50's, we believed in rationing scarce things, and an academic secondary education was one of those. That need has gone, and so has the belief in rationing. What right has Blankshire County Council to tell you that your child shouldn't go to an academic school?
    What right does it have to tell an academic child whose parents cannot afford private school fees they cannot go to an academic grammar school either? Comprehensives aren't academic schools particularly, just by definition average schools.

    Let parents ballot to open new grammars not just end selection as now
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038

    My comp did that and it worked well.

    My grammar school streamed not by subject but by average performance in the 3rd year exams. An A and a B stream. The B stream were referred by some teachers as "less able" despite students having passed the 11 plus three years earlier. And the Secondary School head in the town treated his school as a borstal with exclusively CSE exams at the end of the five years.
    Of course all pupils now do GCSEs whatever school they attend after O levels were merged with CSEs
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,933
    edited January 2024

    Three months, you say?

    Anything else happening in British politics in three months time?
    The new biometric passport requirements this summer - if they happen when planned - are going to cause absolute carnage at the Chunnel and Dover. I’m rather dreading it as we’ll be driving down to France at some point.

    EDIT: scratch that, they’re apparently now coming in later in the year, possibly October. So summer is safe.
This discussion has been closed.