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A date with destiny, a place in history? – politicalbetting.com

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,824
    ydoethur said:

    No it hasn't. It's hit them *indirectly.* Which is rather different, and altogether more difficult to respond to.

    As for Trump, he'll probably claim they were attacked by Iraq and China and this shows that President Obama is unfit to be re-elected.
    Iran has significant ballistic missile capability, which improves daily, and is apparently months from a nuke

    Can America/Israel tolerate a world where Iran has nukes with missiles able to destroy Tel Aviv? And, eventually, NYC? Perhaps they can, perhaps they have no choice

    But this potential war would be a way of setting back Iran a decade, and hoping that America’s technological lead in AI means Iran can never be a serious threat again (for the foreseeable)

  • isamisam Posts: 41,335

    What a tw@.

    That's your next PM, right there.

    For those who think they will get something better than Rishi Sunak. Spoiler alert...

    “Lock us up!”
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    Leon said:

    Yes. He could lose the election right here, right now, tonight

    Iran has just hit US troops directly, and killed several and wounded many

    Is America a superpower or not? Does it just meekly accept this, or does it take on the mad mullahs in Tehran?

    If Biden fails, then Trump will exult and taunt, and Trump will have a point. America was not humiliated when Trump was in charge. It’s an unfair point, to an extent, but it will work
    It hasn’t hit them directly. It’s hit them through proxies. Hitting back will certainly happen, Biden’s said so and he’s not so impaired as to not back that up, but whatever is done won’t be enough for the armchair generals of the right who care less about the efficacy of military action than it producing a pointless but visually spectacular bloodbath.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    What a tw@.

    That's your next PM, right there.

    For those who think they will get something better than Rishi Sunak. Spoiler alert...

    The entire Labour program for government looks suspiciously like continuity Sunak. No, that's not quite accurate. Continuity Sunak minus the Rwanda policy. Beyond that, not a cigarette paper to put between the sides. Just endless repetition of the formula that there is no money because taxing anyone with assets would make them cry.

    The failure of such an administration is a nailed on certainty, after which we get Kemi if we're lucky, Suella if we ain't.
  • This is insane.

    The Oklahoma Republican party passed a "censure" resolution condemning their GOP Sen. James Lankford for the "crime" of ignoring Trump's orders and working with Democrats on a bill that would dramatically increase security at the border:

    "Until Senator Lankford ceases from these actions, the Oklahoma Republican Party will cease all support for him,” the resolution states

    It's a cult.


    https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1751643312652534064
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,824
    DougSeal said:

    It hasn’t hit them directly. It’s hit them through proxies. Hitting back will certainly happen, Biden’s said so and he’s not so impaired as to not back that up, but whatever is done won’t be enough for the armchair generals of the right who care less about the efficacy of military action than it producing a pointless but visually spectacular bloodbath.
    TBH I think the US Right cares more about defeating a weak “Jimmy Carterish” Biden in November. And the US Left feels the same about defeating a mad “war mongering” Trump

    This is all poisoned by the US electoral cycle, and seeing which narrative prevails

    I reckon Biden will have to hit Iran directly, somehow
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,824
    BREAKING: Multiple US lawmakers want to directly hit Iran after deadly attack on the US troops in the Middle East


    https://x.com/theinsiderpaper/status/1751665640375767421?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg
  • vinovino Posts: 174
    MattW said:

    Yes - Babbington. The dual carriageways were full of flying pickets on that day.

    On Lee Anderson, I'd say that Ben Bradley is safer. So if Anderson survives, so will Bradley imo.

    I really can't call Ashfield as I can't call the Ashfield Independents. Despite all the slings and arrows, they increased their seats at the last Local Elections. Some of their supporters are extraordinarily loyal.

    Two factors are that there has been a lot of housing built in both Ashfield and Mansfield over recent yeas, and both are becoming to some extent commuter towns for Nottingham more than previously (via Robin Hood line light rai partially).

    I would not consider Hucknall (southern end of Ashfield Constituency) to be a Nottingham suburb since they are also on the tramway network. Nottingham centric people voting in Ashfield. It is noticeable that house prices there have relatively increased by perhaps 10%+ over a period of years compared to similar housing stick *not* on the tram network.

    A third factor is that our District Hospital (Mansfield / Ashfield borders) is now 600 beds and has 3000+ staff, which would probably mainly go against Conservative this time. Many live locally (inexpensive housing), but a small but not tiny number of staff I met whilst in there for 3 weeks last summer commute quite some distance to work there - I met ones coming from both Nottingham and Sheffield.
    Hi,
    Agree entirely with Ben Bradley - he used to be my local County Councillor - why voters are loyal to Ashfield Independents puzzles me as well I honestly thought their period of rule would bring them down.
    I think Nottingham City Council consider Hucknall to be in their area of influence as to be honest so do I,I live in Hucknall so my MP is Mark Spencer so difficult to call.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,396
    Leon said:

    Iran has significant ballistic missile capability, which improves daily, and is apparently months from a nuke

    Can America/Israel tolerate a world where Iran has nukes with missiles able to destroy Tel Aviv? And, eventually, NYC? Perhaps they can, perhaps they have no choice

    But this potential war would be a way of setting back Iran a decade, and hoping that America’s technological lead in AI means Iran can never be a serious threat again (for the foreseeable)

    Just today, Iran has put three satellites into orbit.

    https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1751657904992649251

    First successful flight of the Simorgh Rocket. But they haven't had a fast launch attempt cadence...
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simorgh_(rocket)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,335

    What a tw@.

    That's your next PM, right there.

    For those who think they will get something better than Rishi Sunak. Spoiler alert...

    Quite incredible really, that the man who looks certain to be our next PM by virtue of being a sensible person with integrity, was calling for us to remain under restrictions solely so he could point the finger at his rival, who he had desperately named a relatively harmless new strain of Covid after

  • What a tw@.

    That's your next PM, right there.

    For those who think they will get something better than Rishi Sunak. Spoiler alert...

    I think on average, if one is objective, Conservative MPs are slightly more capable than Labour ones. But the government is a shambles and Labour will be less of a shambles to start with.
    The reason is simply that after Corbyn the Labour party has pulled itself together, or at least papered over the cracks, whilst the Conservative Party is still riven by factionalism, and any leader has to choose his team like a medieval king, more by reference to their power bases than their ability.
  • Labour MP Kate Osamor has had the whip suspended following her Holocaust Memorial Day post




    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1751672931103408461
  • Taz said:
    Indeed, also what was Reagan's response to the Beirut barracks bombing that killed 241 American marines, soldiers, and sailors?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,567
    Leon said:

    Iran has significant ballistic missile capability, which improves daily, and is apparently months from a nuke

    Can America/Israel tolerate a world where Iran has nukes with missiles able to destroy Tel Aviv? And, eventually, NYC? Perhaps they can, perhaps they have no choice

    But this potential war would be a way of setting back Iran a decade, and hoping that America’s technological lead in AI means Iran can never be a serious threat again (for the foreseeable)

    Dry January come to a sudden end?

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4221575#Comment_4221575

    (Mind you, in that comment I was musing about an American attack on Iran to befuddle one of its proxies - in that case, Russia.)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302

    Why would anyone hang on in this situation, just to climb this leaderboard? Isn’t that the biggest insult, to suggest their motivation here is themself, not party or country? Surely this sort of talk is for fiction books, not reality?

    The only thought on Sunak’s mind and the team of highly paid professionals and scientists around him, is to get the best possible election result from this year and situation.They know the only thing that can possibly do this is to win the battle of the campaigns.
    Picking the most favourable backdrop of news narrative to campaign in front of is not only top most consideration on the list, it is the only consideration on the list, this longest serving lead table 100% does not come into it.

    Do you actually believe this? Do lefty PBers really think Sunak and Tories think in this fictitious way? Are you placing bets believing this?

    Silly, pointless header.

    Thank you for your kind words ;-)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,567

    Indeed, also what was Reagan's response to the Beirut barracks bombing that killed 241 American marines, soldiers, and sailors?
    Carter tried to be tough with the Iranians in an election year.

    As I recall, the results were not altogether to his advantage.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,824
    isam said:

    Quite incredible really, that the man who looks certain to be our next PM by virtue of being a sensible person with integrity, was calling for us to remain under restrictions solely so he could point the finger at his rival, who he had desperately named a relatively harmless new strain of Covid after

    Starmer is a shameless liar and a hypocrite, he is also deeply Woke, inert and unimaginative. On the upside he is definitely quite smart, hugely ambitious and fairly ruthless (one has to admire how he brutally purged the Labour Left)

    I don’t think it will be enough, given the problems we face. I suspect he will be a grave disappointment as PM, albeit not as bad as, say, Truss. More like TMay

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,556
    Taz said:
    This the same GOP party that is blocking support for Ukraine because they are American Isolationists?

    I'm confused.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,567

    This the same GOP party that is blocking support for Ukraine because they are American Isolationists?

    I'm confused.

    So are they.

    THe requirement to be a Republican lawmaker is you must have a lower IQ than Donald Trump, a 77 year old weirdo showing multiple signs of dementia.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,556

    This is insane.

    The Oklahoma Republican party passed a "censure" resolution condemning their GOP Sen. James Lankford for the "crime" of ignoring Trump's orders and working with Democrats on a bill that would dramatically increase security at the border:

    "Until Senator Lankford ceases from these actions, the Oklahoma Republican Party will cease all support for him,” the resolution states

    It's a cult.


    https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1751643312652534064

    Certainly is a cult. And unless US indie voters turn out in their droves in swing states in November and stop him, the cult will be running America for a very long time.
  • This the same GOP party that is blocking support for Ukraine because they are American Isolationists?

    I'm confused.

    Only traitors, Putin's catamites, and morons can support the GOP, they are a cancer on America and the world.
  • isam said:

    Quite incredible really, that the man who looks certain to be our next PM by virtue of being a sensible person with integrity, was calling for us to remain under restrictions solely so he could point the finger at his rival, who he had desperately named a relatively harmless new strain of Covid after

    Keep Calmer and... :lol:
  • Thank you for your kind words ;-)
    You know you've hit rock bottom when Loon Rabbit criticises you for thinking in a fictitious way.

    FWIW - I agree with this piece.
  • Indeed, also what was Reagan's response to the Beirut barracks bombing that killed 241 American marines, soldiers, and sailors?
    According to Caspar Weinberger, then United States Secretary of Defense, there is no knowledge of who did the bombing.[12] Some analysis highlights the role of Hezbollah and Iran, calling it "an Iranian operation from top to bottom".[13] There is no consensus on whether Hezbollah existed at the time of bombing.[14] The attacks eventually led to the withdrawal of the international peacekeeping force from Lebanon, where they had been stationed following the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) withdrawal in the aftermath of Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,824

    According to Caspar Weinberger, then United States Secretary of Defense, there is no knowledge of who did the bombing.[12] Some analysis highlights the role of Hezbollah and Iran, calling it "an Iranian operation from top to bottom".[13] There is no consensus on whether Hezbollah existed at the time of bombing.[14] The attacks eventually led to the withdrawal of the international peacekeeping force from Lebanon, where they had been stationed following the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) withdrawal in the aftermath of Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon.
    The situation now is entirely different to the Lebanon in the 80s

    It’s like comparing the Crimean War with WW1
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,945
    Can you think fictitiously?
    That's a question for philosophers.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,824
    Relatedly

    “World War 3 fears as expert warns Iran has uranium to make 12 nuclear bombs in 5 months mirror.co.uk/news/us-news/w…

    https://x.com/dailymirror/status/1751659888537727230?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg

    This was BEFORE the drone strike

    Without over-reacting (not my style) it becomes quite difficult to see how we AVOID a major war in the Middle East. Too many powers have an overwhelming interest in not seeing a nuclear armed Iran, and meanwhile Iran has gained the avowed backing of Russia and the tacit approval of China

    The stage, as they say, is set
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    dixiedean said:

    Can you think fictitiously?
    That's a question for philosophers.

    In most novels I've read quite a few characters think fictitiously.
  • Fujitsu, the Japanese IT giant at the centre of the Post Office Horizon scandal, is planning to introduce artificial intelligence face-scanning systems into Britain’s supermarkets to automatically check shoppers’ ages.

    The company has developed technology to be used at supermarket self-service tills that will estimate shoppers’ ages based on facial analysis.

    Last week, the Home Office took a step towards allowing AI to check shoppers’ ages, saying it would consult on changes allowing supermarkets to use software that estimates if a buyer is over 18.

    Fujitsu’s system has been approved by the UK’s age verification scheme, which said it was 99.9pc accurate at detecting that an 18-year-old shopper was under the age of 25.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/28/fujitsu-post-office-scandal-sell-supermarket-facescanners/
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,355
    Leon said:

    Relatedly

    “World War 3 fears as expert warns Iran has uranium to make 12 nuclear bombs in 5 months mirror.co.uk/news/us-news/w…

    https://x.com/dailymirror/status/1751659888537727230?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg

    This was BEFORE the drone strike

    Without over-reacting (not my style) it becomes quite difficult to see how we AVOID a major war in the Middle East. Too many powers have an overwhelming interest in not seeing a nuclear armed Iran, and meanwhile Iran has gained the avowed backing of Russia and the tacit approval of China

    The stage, as they say, is set

    I think if they got the bomb Iran might actually be crazy enough to use it.

    Destruction of Israel is part of their constitution. And they'd probably welcome being martyred in response, so a massive second strike threat wouldn't necessarily deter them.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    dixiedean said:

    Can you think fictitiously?
    That's a question for philosophers.

    The philosopher's first task would be to frame the question clearly so there was no doubt as to what it meant and that it is plain as to what sort of response would constitute an answer.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,567

    Fujitsu, the Japanese IT giant at the centre of the Post Office Horizon scandal, is planning to introduce artificial intelligence face-scanning systems into Britain’s supermarkets to automatically check shoppers’ ages.

    The company has developed technology to be used at supermarket self-service tills that will estimate shoppers’ ages based on facial analysis.

    Last week, the Home Office took a step towards allowing AI to check shoppers’ ages, saying it would consult on changes allowing supermarkets to use software that estimates if a buyer is over 18.

    Fujitsu’s system has been approved by the UK’s age verification scheme, which said it was 99.9pc accurate at detecting that an 18-year-old shopper was under the age of 25.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/28/fujitsu-post-office-scandal-sell-supermarket-facescanners/

    What could possibly go wrong?

    I'm going with: they let 7 year olds buy whisky.
  • I think if they got the bomb Iran might actually be crazy enough to use it.

    Destruction of Israel is part of their constitution. And they'd probably welcome being martyred in response, so a massive second strike threat wouldn't necessarily deter them.
    Yeah, the Shi'ites are fucking crazy.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    Leon said:

    In all seriousness, I am not sure, in an election year, how Biden can avoid striking Iran directly, now

    Otherwise he looks like a kind of mummified Jimmy Carter

    They could hit Iranian oil export facilities which would cripple the Iranian economy. But oil (and US voters' gas) prices would spike. And give Putin a boost to his revenues. Not ideal.

    Or they could utterly pulverise the Iranians' proxies, the Houthis.

    But the Saudis would be happy enough with either outcome.
  • Must have been painful for the Telegraph to write this.

    Labour risks reigniting the debt crisis that brought down Liz Truss if it commits to unsustainable spending after coming to power, a top bond investor has warned.

    Pictet, a Swiss bank and asset manager, said that concerns over British stability have not gone away and the markets will be quick to punish financial recklessness.

    César Pérez Ruiz, the company’s chief investment officer, also warned Rishi Sunak against unaffordable tax cuts as he battles to remain prime minister in the wake of a polling collapse.

    Pictet – which manages almost £600bn of assets – will avoid buying government debt and sterling amid concerns over the general election expected later this year.

    Mr Pérez Ruiz said: “If Labour comes in and starts spending money they do not have, the bond vigilantes will be back here again. And so yes, I am con


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/28/labour-spending-spree-risks-liz-truss-debt-crisis/
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,839

    Yeah, the Shi'ites are fucking crazy.
    Most of the issues in the ME seem to come from Sunni groups don't they though? Saudi-backed Salafism. Shi-ites can also be very extreme, but seem to be so in their own states and against their own regional enemies.
  • ydoethur said:

    What could possibly go wrong?

    I'm going with: they let 7 year olds buy whisky.
    And cigarettes.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327

    Labour MP Kate Osamor has had the whip suspended following her Holocaust Memorial Day post




    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1751672931103408461

    I'm conflicted over whether she should be suspended. Nonetheless her point was best left unsaid after she remembered the holocaust. Starmer seems to be hamstrung after Corbynista anti-Semitism, and cannot utter a word that sounds like it might be a criticism of Israel.

    That said I am very nervous of where Netanyahu is taking this conflict. Yes he had every right to attack Hamas, but even Dave is now hinting Bibi might be overstepping the mark. if we look at Max Hastings's analysis from almost 30 years ago, it would appear Bibi doesn't like Arabs, whether they are Hamas terrorists or not.

    https://twitter.com/DalrympleWill/status/1721163356051288412?lang=en

    Whether Bibi's current policy is genocide might be questionable, but it certainly smells like ethnic cleansing.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,396

    Fujitsu, the Japanese IT giant at the centre of the Post Office Horizon scandal, is planning to introduce artificial intelligence face-scanning systems into Britain’s supermarkets to automatically check shoppers’ ages.

    The company has developed technology to be used at supermarket self-service tills that will estimate shoppers’ ages based on facial analysis.

    Last week, the Home Office took a step towards allowing AI to check shoppers’ ages, saying it would consult on changes allowing supermarkets to use software that estimates if a buyer is over 18.

    Fujitsu’s system has been approved by the UK’s age verification scheme, which said it was 99.9pc accurate at detecting that an 18-year-old shopper was under the age of 25.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/28/fujitsu-post-office-scandal-sell-supermarket-facescanners/

    Firstly, this is not, in any way, AI.

    It is, yet again, Machine Learning.

    It's also a type of Machine Learning that has had serious difficulties in the past. Any Machine Learning system is only as good as the data that is fed into it, and we can only hope that the dataset of picture accurately represents Britain's ethnic makeup...

    e.g.: https://www.wired.com/story/wrongful-arrests-ai-derailed-3-mens-lives/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559

    And cigarettes.
    False beards are going to be a thing....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,682
    edited January 2024

    Most of the issues in the ME seem to come from Sunni groups don't they though? Saudi-backed Salafism. Shi-ites can also be very extreme, but seem to be so in their own states and against their own regional enemies.
    Yes, but the Shi'ites are crazy, they perform the tatbir on themselves.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tatbir


  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,839
    Regarding the thread header, Labour supporter recommends against ditching Sunak before the election in non-shock. They don't want a fresh leader to present a whole new headache for their deeply average (to be kind) leader who has failed to build any trust or favourability with the electorate, and is relying entirely on the shitness of Sunak to give him the keys to Number 10.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,839

    Yes, but the Shi'ites are crazy, they perform the tatbir on themselves.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tatbir


    Good fricking grief.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,824
    If I was a massive anti Semite loon (I’m not) I’d say this was Bibi’s and Israel’s plan from the start

    Seduce Hamas into making an outrageous attack on Israel (by weirdly ignoring all the warnings of attack). Make sure, by your lacklustre response, that the Hamas attack is so vile and “successful” it justifies a massive Israeli retaliation. However, then go so far in the retaliation it arouses the world and drags in the USA, Iran, other actors into a quasi-global crisis, which will, inevitably, lead Iran to hit American forces at some point, quite directly

    Endgame: encourage America to wipe out Iran as a threat, for the foreseeable future

    Job done. Gaza is leveled; Iran is “pacified”

    I repeat, I do not believe this is what is occurring, but knowing the mad anti-Semite mindset, I bet this becomes a popular theory
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,839
    ...
    Leon said:

    If I was a massive anti Semite loon (I’m not) I’d say this was Bibi’s and Israel’s plan from the start

    Seduce Hamas into making an outrageous attack on Israel (by weirdly ignoring all the warnings of attack). Make sure, by your lacklustre response, that the Hamas attack is so vile and “successful” it justifies a massive Israeli retaliation. However, then go so far in the retaliation it arouses the world and drags in the USA, Iran, other actors into a quasi-global crisis, which will, inevitably, lead Iran to hit American forces at some point, quite directly

    Endgame: encourage America to wipe out Iran as a threat, for the foreseeable future

    Job done. Gaza is leveled; Iran is “pacified”

    I repeat, I do not believe this is what is occurring, but knowing the mad anti-Semite mindset, I bet this becomes a popular theory

    Why would one have to be anti-semitical to believe that account? It speaks to the wickedness and deviousness of politicians, not the propensity of a specific race to do anything in particular. By its nature such a scheme could not have included wide consent from Israelis or Jews.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,633
    US air strikes possibly imminent. The protagonists of the drone strike appear to be taking no chances.

    https://x.com/oald24/status/1751664678424498645?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    Most of the issues in the ME seem to come from Sunni groups don't they though? Saudi-backed Salafism. Shi-ites can also be very extreme, but seem to be so in their own states and against their own regional enemies.
    Yes, kinda, but Sunni Islam is far bigger than Shi’ites in numbers.

    Talking about “Sunni” Islam in this context is about as useful as talking about “Protestant” Christianity with a spectrum of fire and brimstone Southern Baptists to woolly liberal CoE types.

    Admittedly, the Salafi movement of Sunni Islam, specifically that branch started by Ibn 'Abd al-Wahhab, has been turbocharged by
    Saudi oil money and can be thought of as a back to basics muscular strand of Sunni Islam, so that’s been in the ascendant for a while. Sufi Islam, far less fashionable now, is more contemplative, mystical and esoteric. Unfortunately, we plonked the Wahhabadists on top of all the oil and gave them Mecca, a bit like giving Rome to Billy Graham.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,824
    DougSeal said:

    Yes, kinda, but Sunni Islam is far bigger than Shi’ites in numbers.

    Talking about “Sunni” Islam in this context is about as useful as talking about “Protestant” Christianity with a spectrum of fire and brimstone Southern Baptists to woolly liberal CoE types.

    Admittedly, the Salafi movement of Sunni Islam, specifically that branch started by Ibn 'Abd al-Wahhab, has been turbocharged by
    Saudi oil money and can be thought of as a back to basics muscular strand of Sunni Islam, so that’s been in the ascendant for a while. Sufi Islam, far less fashionable now, is more contemplative, mystical and esoteric. Unfortunately, we plonked the Wahhabadists on top of all the oil and gave them Mecca, a bit like giving Rome to Billy Graham.
    Mystical Sufi Islam has always seemed quite appealing to me. And what happened to the lovely wistful hedonistic Islam of the Rubaaiyat of Omar Khayyam with his flasks of wine and lovers in the shade of a tree?

    Its like Christianity was entirely taken over by the wee free Presbyterians
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607

    I don't own a cafe, but I do own a shop. We are open only half days on Tuesday and Wednesday, and closed completely Monday and Thursday. Why? Because being open Costs Money. Lights. Heating. Staff costs (not that we have any at the moment but cafes will).

    When you open a new public-facing business you need to build a presence and attract people in. But you also have to balance costs and cash flow. Our business is lucky in that it doesn't need to pay rent. Or bills. Or wages. Yet. And we're still needing to balance revenue potential vs costs.

    My brother once owned a cafe. Costs killed it after the local school banned kids from going out at lunchtime. And in January 2024 so many businesses have had to cope with huge cost inflation which they can't just recover by putting up prices. That is why they aren't open more - they can't afford to be.

    Read up on the SME debt crisis...

    Good thinking. Locals will know when the shop is open. Visitors won’t be undertaking Passeggiata through New Pitsligo on a Monday evening.
  • ydoethur said:

    Carter tried to be tough with the Iranians in an election year.

    As I recall, the results were not altogether to his advantage.
    Sending two helicopters was a mistake. What could possibly go wrong?
  • Good fricking grief.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persecution_of_Shias_by_the_Islamic_State
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,839
    DougSeal said:

    Yes, kinda, but Sunni Islam is far bigger than Shi’ites in numbers.

    Talking about “Sunni” Islam in this context is about as useful as talking about “Protestant” Christianity with a spectrum of fire and brimstone Southern Baptists to woolly liberal CoE types.

    Admittedly, the Salafi movement of Sunni Islam, specifically that branch started by Ibn 'Abd al-Wahhab, has been turbocharged by
    Saudi oil money and can be thought of as a back to basics muscular strand of Sunni Islam, so that’s been in the ascendant for a while. Sufi Islam, far less fashionable now, is more contemplative, mystical and esoteric. Unfortunately, we plonked the Wahhabadists on top of all the oil and gave them Mecca, a bit like giving Rome to Billy Graham.
    All those types of Protestants are quite clearly Protestants though, and share several commonalities, despite different ways of observing their faith.

    I have a fair bit of respect for the type of Shi-ite Islam practised in Syria by Assad (and presumably a good many others) which allows him to pray in a Church at Easter, and for Christmas to be widely celebrated. It is a shame that we in the West decided to try to remove that arrangement in favour of an Islamist basket case.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,355

    Labour MP Kate Osamor has had the whip suspended following her Holocaust Memorial Day post




    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1751672931103408461

    I'm not slow to criticise anti-semitism, which runs rife amongst the Corbynistas, but I'm struggling to see what's wrong with that post?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607

    This is insane.

    The Oklahoma Republican party passed a "censure" resolution condemning their GOP Sen. James Lankford for the "crime" of ignoring Trump's orders and working with Democrats on a bill that would dramatically increase security at the border:

    "Until Senator Lankford ceases from these actions, the Oklahoma Republican Party will cease all support for him,” the resolution states

    It's a cult.


    https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1751643312652534064

    In the word “cult” replace the l with an n.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607
    vino said:

    Hi,
    Agree entirely with Ben Bradley - he used to be my local County Councillor - why voters are loyal to Ashfield Independents puzzles me as well I honestly thought their period of rule would bring them down.
    I think Nottingham City Council consider Hucknall to be in their area of influence as to be honest so do I,I live in Hucknall so my MP is Mark Spencer so difficult to call.
    Could it be that the assorted representatives of the traditional parties have beeb so poor that none of them are worthy of a vote?
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,633
    Talking Pictures at 20.10 tonight. We are on the brink of a global war. But this will be a joyous diversion.

    https://x.com/vespa2222/status/1751679282517246073?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302

    Regarding the thread header, Labour supporter recommends against ditching Sunak before the election in non-shock. They don't want a fresh leader to present a whole new headache for their deeply average (to be kind) leader who has failed to build any trust or favourability with the electorate, and is relying entirely on the shitness of Sunak to give him the keys to Number 10.

    I'm not recommending against ditching Sunak, far from it, I would love nothing better than for the Tories to get rid of Sunak right now. Not because any other Tory leader would do any better but because another leadership crisis would sink the Tories further into the realms of electoral oblivion. Hence my "...assuming also that his MPs are not crazy enough to stick the dagger in before the election..."
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    I have been out all day.

    Did Kemi say anything worthwhile about the Post Office?
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,108

    I can reassure those PBers worried about everything being broken that ASDA isn't.

    And has carrots on offer at 39p per kilo.

    Now for those bewailing that 'nothing works', or at least that 'nothing works' in the public sector, might I suggest that a misallocation of funds could be playing a part.

    This year the government is going to spend about £1.2 trillion quid:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45814459

    About half of that going on Social Protection and Health and almost all of that going to either the old or the poor.

    So those who want to increase spending on the courts or the passport office then make a case for spending a little less on the ever demanding oldies and poories.

    The problem being that spending money on the courts or the passport office is less of a vote winner.

    Giving out a £2.1 billion dividend as profits plunge 80% to £197.8 million indicates everything is just peachy?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607
    Leon said:

    If I was a massive anti Semite loon (I’m not) I’d say this was Bibi’s and Israel’s plan from the start

    Seduce Hamas into making an outrageous attack on Israel (by weirdly ignoring all the warnings of attack). Make sure, by your lacklustre response, that the Hamas attack is so vile and “successful” it justifies a massive Israeli retaliation. However, then go so far in the retaliation it arouses the world and drags in the USA, Iran, other actors into a quasi-global crisis, which will, inevitably, lead Iran to hit American forces at some point, quite directly

    Endgame: encourage America to wipe out Iran as a threat, for the foreseeable future

    Job done. Gaza is leveled; Iran is “pacified”

    I repeat, I do not believe this is what is occurring, but knowing the mad anti-Semite mindset, I bet this becomes a popular theory

    Leon said:

    If I was a massive anti Semite loon (I’m not) I’d say this was Bibi’s and Israel’s plan from the start

    Seduce Hamas into making an outrageous attack on Israel (by weirdly ignoring all the warnings of attack). Make sure, by your lacklustre response, that the Hamas attack is so vile and “successful” it justifies a massive Israeli retaliation. However, then go so far in the retaliation it arouses the world and drags in the USA, Iran, other actors into a quasi-global crisis, which will, inevitably, lead Iran to hit American forces at some point, quite directly

    Endgame: encourage America to wipe out Iran as a threat, for the foreseeable future

    Job done. Gaza is leveled; Iran is “pacified”

    I repeat, I do not believe this is what is occurring, but knowing the mad anti-Semite mindset, I bet this becomes a popular theory

    I don’t think that’s an unbelievable view. Fairliered. After another excellent Mrs. F meal. With wine. Beer first. Now on the malt whisky. It’s great not having work tomorrow!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,839

    I'm not recommending against ditching Sunak, far from it, I would love nothing better than for the Tories to get rid of Sunak right now. Not because any other Tory leader would do any better but because another leadership crisis would sink the Tories further into the realms of electoral oblivion. Hence my "...assuming also that his MPs are not crazy enough to stick the dagger in before the election..."
    Calling a course of action crazy *is* a recommendation against it in any form of English as we currently understand it.
  • Cyclefree said:

    I have been out all day.

    Did Kemi say anything worthwhile about the Post Office?

    No.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607

    And cigarettes.
    They’ll be buying them for their 65 year old grandparents who have been barred from buying drink and fags by the same app.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,786

    I'm not slow to criticise anti-semitism, which runs rife amongst the Corbynistas, but I'm struggling to see what's wrong with that post?
    The reference to Gaza as genocide, I assume.
  • I'm not slow to criticise anti-semitism, which runs rife amongst the Corbynistas, but I'm struggling to see what's wrong with that post?
    Comparing the Israeli campaign in Gaza to the Holocaust?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,839

    I'm not slow to criticise anti-semitism, which runs rife amongst the Corbynistas, but I'm struggling to see what's wrong with that post?
    Last three words?

    Whether or not you regard Israel's actions in Gaza as a genocide, it's quite inflammatory to bring this in to a post about Holocaust Memorial Day.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    No.
    BTW Mr Wallis of the website and book has started a set of posts, just the first up now.

    https://www.postofficescandal.uk/post/whats-really-going-on-with-the-subpostmaster-compensation-schemes/
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,670
    edited January 2024
    ..
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,670
    edited January 2024
    vino said:

    Hi,
    Agree entirely with Ben Bradley - he used to be my local County Councillor - why voters are loyal to Ashfield Independents puzzles me as well I honestly thought their period of rule would bring them down.
    I think Nottingham City Council consider Hucknall to be in their area of influence as to be honest so do I,I live in Hucknall so my MP is Mark Spencer so difficult to call.
    To me AIs are basically Lib Dems plus Brexit and a couple of other things - they even occupy the old Lib Dem shop unit in the high street. Like LDs they swing their needle in whatever direction will get votes.

    The schism was caused iirc by the events around Zadrozny in 2015 which emerged "conveniently" a few weeks before the 2015 Election - warmed over old allegations from 10 years previously. People I know look very suspiciously at the local Labour Party on the basis of cui bono. Police kept him under investigation for 2 years or so, then the case was withdrawn at the door of the court, which was shocking behaviour by the police / CPS. On this point he seems to me to deserve some sympathy, regardless of the other financial stuff before and since.

    At one point whilst still a LibDem back in 2007 he achieved a swing of 50%+:

    Remember that Simon Hughes told conference in the closing session before Ming’s speech that he was planning to help in a Nottinghamshire County Council by-election on his way home?

    Despite the filthy weather that day, Simon’s help clearly paid off. Today was polling day, and an intrepid count-goer has texted the result to Lib Dem Voice’s Night Editor.

    Members of the Labour Party should look away now.

    UKIP 70 2%
    Con 222 8%
    Lab 435 16%
    Lib Dem 1979 73%

    Congrats to all concerned, including newly elected Cllr Jazon Zadrozny. I’m sure someone will be along in the morning who can calculate swing properly, but my calculation from the results last time, where Labour had 45% of the vote and a majority of 981, it’s a swing to the Lib Dems of over 50%.


    https://www.libdemvoice.org/sutton-notts-by-election-613.html

  • TazTaz Posts: 17,633

    The reference to Gaza as genocide, I assume.
    Which is debatable. Labour has double standards, for sure, on who it suspends the whip from and who it doesn’t.

    If Osamor deserves suspension then surely Tahrir Ali would have merited it too.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,130
    Carnyx said:

    BTW Mr Wallis of the website and book has started a set of posts, just the first up now.

    https://www.postofficescandal.uk/post/whats-really-going-on-with-the-subpostmaster-compensation-schemes/
    Started? He’s been doing it for years, and that’s the sequel site carrying his blog on the affair.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607
    Leon said:

    Mystical Sufi Islam has always seemed quite appealing to me. And what happened to the lovely wistful hedonistic Islam of the Rubaaiyat of Omar Khayyam with his flasks of wine and lovers in the shade of a tree?

    Its like Christianity was entirely taken over by the wee free Presbyterians
    Or the DUP.

    I don’t often agree with you, @Leon, but I think Iran are a significant danger to world peace and freedom. Whether it’s Russia, Ukraine, Palestine, Yemen or North Korea, Iran seem to have their cancerous tentacles infecting peace. They need to be taught a severe lesson.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,670
    MattW said:

    To me AIs are basically Lib Dems plus Brexit and a couple of other things - they even occupy the old Lib Dem shop unit in the high street. Like LDs they swing their needle in whatever direction will get votes.

    The schism was caused iirc by the events around Zadrozny in 2015 which emerged "conveniently" a few weeks before the 2015 Election - warmed over old allegations from 10 years previously. People I know look very suspiciously at the local Labour Party on the basis of cui bono. Police kept him under investigation for 2 years or so, then the case was withdrawn at the door of the court, which was shocking behaviour by the police / CPS. On this point he seems to me to deserve some sympathy, regardless of the other financial stuff before and since.

    At one point whilst still a LibDem back in 2007 he achieved a swing of 50%+:

    Remember that Simon Hughes told conference in the closing session before Ming’s speech that he was planning to help in a Nottinghamshire County Council by-election on his way home?

    Despite the filthy weather that day, Simon’s help clearly paid off. Today was polling day, and an intrepid count-goer has texted the result to Lib Dem Voice’s Night Editor.

    Members of the Labour Party should look away now.

    UKIP 70 2%
    Con 222 8%
    Lab 435 16%
    Lib Dem 1979 73%

    Congrats to all concerned, including newly elected Cllr Jazon Zadrozny. I’m sure someone will be along in the morning who can calculate swing properly, but my calculation from the results last time, where Labour had 45% of the vote and a majority of 981, it’s a swing to the Lib Dems of over 50%.


    https://www.libdemvoice.org/sutton-notts-by-election-613.html

    Update: the swing was ~45%, but as the LDV commentators said: Let's not quibble.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607

    Last three words?

    Whether or not you regard Israel's actions in Gaza as a genocide, it's quite inflammatory to bring this in to a post about Holocaust Memorial Day.
    Just because the Jews suffered the holocaust doesn’t mean they are incapable of genocide.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,567
    Taz said:

    Which is debatable. Labour has double standards, for sure, on who it suspends the whip from and who it doesn’t.

    If Osamor deserves suspension then surely Tahrir Ali would have merited it too.
    He didn't call it a genocide, or equate it with the Holocaust.

    He referred to war crimes, which is tenable (although I doubt if he would be so quick to point the finger at Hamas) and made a political point, which made him look rather silly, a la BJO.

    Also AFAIK he has an otherwise fairly clean record (some silliness over Russia aside) while Osamor has been in trouble several times, including with the law.

    Finally, it seems she sent it to her constituency party, who are all up in arms as a large number of them are Jewish.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884

    I'm conflicted over whether she should be suspended. Nonetheless her point was best left unsaid after she remembered the holocaust. Starmer seems to be hamstrung after Corbynista anti-Semitism, and cannot utter a word that sounds like it might be a criticism of Israel.

    That said I am very nervous of where Netanyahu is taking this conflict. Yes he had every right to attack Hamas, but even Dave is now hinting Bibi might be overstepping the mark. if we look at Max Hastings's analysis from almost 30 years ago, it would appear Bibi doesn't like Arabs, whether they are Hamas terrorists or not.

    https://twitter.com/DalrympleWill/status/1721163356051288412?lang=en

    Whether Bibi's current policy is genocide might be questionable, but it certainly smells like ethnic cleansing.
    Ethnic cleansing isn't a defined crime under international law, unlike genocide. Whether Israel's actions in Gaza are genocide or alternatively crimes against humanity depends on how much the violence is targeted at eliminating a particular group.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302

    Calling a course of action crazy *is* a recommendation against it in any form of English as we currently understand it.
    You need to re-read my most again.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    The Post Office scandal - on top of many others - has so severely dented my belief in the capacity or willingness of the state or its institutions, including the legal system, to avoid doing harm or put right its mistakes, that I seriously wonder whether there is any point to politics at all.

    Why should I trust the state when I see how badly it behaves? Why should I bother doing the right thing when it does not even try to do likewise? When those who behave like scoundrels are rewarded and praised? And the rest of us treated like mugs?

    I will not be voting for the Tories. But as of now I am disinclined to vote for anyone at all. They all seem rotten, self-serving and incompetent. They have done a great deal to break the bonds of trust which should exist in a well-ordered society. They are doing very little to earn it, to earn mine anyway. Until they do, I am not at all inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt. They either don't want my vote or take me for granted. So, frankly, they can fuck right off and come back when they have learnt as a bare minimum how to behave with a modicum of integrity, competence and basic decency.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,396

    Or the DUP.

    I don’t often agree with you, @Leon, but I think Iran are a significant danger to world peace and freedom. Whether it’s Russia, Ukraine, Palestine, Yemen or North Korea, Iran seem to have their cancerous tentacles infecting peace. They need to be taught a severe lesson.
    My longstanding view since October last year is that this is all semi-planned and coordinated; Russia needs the west to be as busy as possible, with its attention away from Ukraine, and the Red Sea / Israel are ideal ways of doing it. It's probably in Iran's interests as well. Well, not the Iranian people's interests, but the regime's.

    I might be wrong and the flare-ups might be much more fluid and organic than that, but I doubt it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594

    Certainly is a cult. And unless US indie voters turn out in their droves in swing states in November and stop him, the cult will be running America for a very long time.
    There were some really naiive people in 2020 who seemed to have assumed Trump's hold on the party would weaken. On the contrary, it is stronger than ever. The number of voices speaking against him has actually diminished, it's the same ones every time - Cheney, Kinzinger and so on - and the previously normal action of Senators or House Members not jumping to do the bidding of someone who is not even yet the nominee (technically anyway), because america prides itself on independence, is dead outside of maybe a few of the stronger governors (but that doesn't matter as they are loyal enough for the presidential race at least).
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,839

    Just because the Jews suffered the holocaust doesn’t mean they are incapable of genocide.
    I agree. However, it is and was always going to be controversial to mention a 'genocide' currently being perpetrated by the ancestors of many of the victims of the Holocaust, in a post about Holocaust Memorial day.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    Cyclefree said:

    The Post Office scandal - on top of many others - has so severely dented my belief in the capacity or willingness of the state or its institutions, including the legal system, to avoid doing harm or put right its mistakes, that I seriously wonder whether there is any point to politics at all.

    Why should I trust the state when I see how badly it behaves? Why should I bother doing the right thing when it does not even try to do likewise? When those who behave like scoundrels are rewarded and praised? And the rest of us treated like mugs?

    I will not be voting for the Tories. But as of now I am disinclined to vote for anyone at all. They all seem rotten, self-serving and incompetent. They have done a great deal to break the bonds of trust which should exist in a well-ordered society. They are doing very little to earn it, to earn mine anyway. Until they do, I am not at all inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt. They either don't want my vote or take me for granted. So, frankly, they can fuck right off and come back when they have learnt as a bare minimum how to behave with a modicum of integrity, competence and basic decency.

    Despair is an understandable reaction, but I would argue parties do not learn lessons from from people refusing to vote. They can get by just fine with apathy and low turnout, so long as the cycle continues to give them a shot at a future election.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,633
    edited January 2024
    ydoethur said:

    He didn't call it a genocide, or equate it with the Holocaust.

    He referred to war crimes, which is tenable (although I doubt if he would be so quick to point the finger at Hamas) and made a political point, which made him look rather silly, a la BJO.

    Also AFAIK he has an otherwise fairly clean record (some silliness over Russia aside) while Osamor has been in trouble several times, including with the law.

    Finally, it seems she sent it to her constituency party, who are all up in arms as a large number of them are Jewish.
    Ali said the PM, personally, has the blood of hundreds of Palestinians on his hands. An absurd statement and accusing the PM of personal culpability which he clearly does not have.

    Ali has also fallen foul of the law, during Covid.

    I doubt ‘all’ of her CLP are up in arms about it. Some may be. Others will be supportive.

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    edited January 2024

    All those types of Protestants are quite clearly Protestants though, and share several commonalities, despite different ways of observing their faith.

    I have a fair bit of respect for the type of Shi-ite Islam practised in Syria by Assad (and presumably a good many others) which allows him to pray in a Church at Easter, and for Christmas to be widely celebrated. It is a shame that we in the West decided to try to remove that arrangement in favour of an Islamist basket case.
    The torturer Assad is an Alawite; they split from the Shia 1000 years ago. Good luck to any outsider who tries to work out what they think and believe; though as with all everywhere most of the ordinary ones will be decent people who don't torture others before having them executed and thrown to the dogs.
  • kle4 said:

    There were some really naiive people in 2020 who seemed to have assumed Trump's hold on the party would weaken. On the contrary, it is stronger than ever. The number of voices speaking against him has actually diminished, it's the same ones every time - Cheney, Kinzinger and so on - and the previously normal action of Senators or House Members not jumping to do the bidding of someone who is not even yet the nominee (technically anyway), because america prides itself on independence, is dead outside of maybe a few of the stronger governors (but that doesn't matter as they are loyal enough for the presidential race at least).
    I dont think it was particularly naive to assume that in 2020/21, it was a plausible path, possibly even a likely one. There were some possible off ramps in 2021 especially, and even 2022. However maintaining that position by 2023 was either very naive or optimistic or probably both. It may still yet happen before the Presidential election but it is a slim chance now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594

    I dont think it was particularly naive to assume that in 2020/21, it was a plausible path, possibly even a likely one. There were some possible off ramps in 2021 especially, and even 2022. However maintaining that position by 2023 was either very naive or optimistic or probably both. It may still yet happen before the Presidential election but it is a slim chance now.
    It was naiive in that they felt they did not have to do anything to sever his hold on the party, and in fact stood in the way of attempts to do that, assuming it would take care of itself.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,396
    Cyclefree said:

    The Post Office scandal - on top of many others - has so severely dented my belief in the capacity or willingness of the state or its institutions, including the legal system, to avoid doing harm or put right its mistakes, that I seriously wonder whether there is any point to politics at all.

    Why should I trust the state when I see how badly it behaves? Why should I bother doing the right thing when it does not even try to do likewise? When those who behave like scoundrels are rewarded and praised? And the rest of us treated like mugs?

    I will not be voting for the Tories. But as of now I am disinclined to vote for anyone at all. They all seem rotten, self-serving and incompetent. They have done a great deal to break the bonds of trust which should exist in a well-ordered society. They are doing very little to earn it, to earn mine anyway. Until they do, I am not at all inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt. They either don't want my vote or take me for granted. So, frankly, they can fuck right off and come back when they have learnt as a bare minimum how to behave with a modicum of integrity, competence and basic decency.

    I can understand why you say that, and feel that way myself at times, but I'll also counter it. The 'state' generally does reasonably well. Things certainly are not as good as they can be thanks to the current government, but we're nowhere near (say) South Africa's levels of chaos. Not that we should be aiming for comparisons that low, but there is a comparison to be made.

    Employment is high. The economy is, if not good, not terrible. The bins get collected. Most of us can see a doctor in a reasonable timeframe - for free. Things generally work, albeit somewhat chaotically. The 'state' makes mistakes - but it always has. And there are an awful lot of good workers within, and without, the state; people who work hard and diligently for both themselves and others. Yet we hear about the scoundrels.

    Also, I'd say most politicians are good people, albeit flawed, as are we all. Some are sometimes put into positions they do not have the capability to do well, but there are few I would count as truly venal. And some who are absolute stars (IMO George Howarth being one such). But we rarely get to hear about them, as they just get on with their jobs.

    I'd also add that I think there are very few states that are doing really well at the moment, particularly of the large economies, and not a single country has zero problems or issues. Neither is it realistic to expect that.

    There's no other country I'd prefer to live in, if I was rich, or if I was poor.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607
    Cyclefree said:

    The Post Office scandal - on top of many others - has so severely dented my belief in the capacity or willingness of the state or its institutions, including the legal system, to avoid doing harm or put right its mistakes, that I seriously wonder whether there is any point to politics at all.

    Why should I trust the state when I see how badly it behaves? Why should I bother doing the right thing when it does not even try to do likewise? When those who behave like scoundrels are rewarded and praised? And the rest of us treated like mugs?

    I will not be voting for the Tories. But as of now I am disinclined to vote for anyone at all. They all seem rotten, self-serving and incompetent. They have done a great deal to break the bonds of trust which should exist in a well-ordered society. They are doing very little to earn it, to earn mine anyway. Until they do, I am not at all inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt. They either don't want my vote or take me for granted. So, frankly, they can fuck right off and come back when they have learnt as a bare minimum how to behave with a modicum of integrity, competence and basic decency.

    Maybe it’s time for violent revolution. Pity we’re too old! 😀
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327
    ...

    Regarding the thread header, Labour supporter recommends against ditching Sunak before the election in non-shock. They don't want a fresh leader to present a whole new headache for their deeply average (to be kind) leader who has failed to build any trust or favourability with the electorate, and is relying entirely on the shitness of Sunak to give him the keys to Number 10.

    Sunak as opposed to your favoured candidate (the S and M lady) seems inch perfect by comparison.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607
    edited January 2024

    I can understand why you say that, and feel that way myself at times, but I'll also counter it. The 'state' generally does reasonably well. Things certainly are not as good as they can be thanks to the current government, but we're nowhere near (say) South Africa's levels of chaos. Not that we should be aiming for comparisons that low, but there is a comparison to be made.

    Employment is high. The economy is, if not good, not terrible. The bins get collected. Most of us can see a doctor in a reasonable timeframe - for free. Things generally work, albeit somewhat chaotically. The 'state' makes mistakes - but it always has. And there are an awful lot of good workers within, and without, the state; people who work hard and diligently for both themselves and others. Yet we hear about the scoundrels.

    Also, I'd say most politicians are good people, albeit flawed, as are we all. Some are sometimes put into positions they do not have the capability to do well, but there are few I would count as truly venal. And some who are absolute stars (IMO George Howarth being one such). But we rarely get to hear about them, as they just get on with their jobs.

    I'd also add that I think there are very few states that are doing really well at the moment, particularly of the large economies, and not a single country has zero problems or issues. Neither is it realistic to expect that.

    There's no other country I'd prefer to live in, if I was rich, or if I was poor.
    So we are still able to do things we did 70 years ago, and are grateful for it. Not much sign of progress, is it?
    Thank goodness our ancestors voted for Attlee in 1945. God knows the state the vast majority of us would be in if we had had a succession of Tory governments since 1945.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    Cyclefree said:

    The Post Office scandal - on top of many others - has so severely dented my belief in the capacity or willingness of the state or its institutions, including the legal system, to avoid doing harm or put right its mistakes, that I seriously wonder whether there is any point to politics at all.

    Why should I trust the state when I see how badly it behaves? Why should I bother doing the right thing when it does not even try to do likewise? When those who behave like scoundrels are rewarded and praised? And the rest of us treated like mugs?

    I will not be voting for the Tories. But as of now I am disinclined to vote for anyone at all. They all seem rotten, self-serving and incompetent. They have done a great deal to break the bonds of trust which should exist in a well-ordered society. They are doing very little to earn it, to earn mine anyway. Until they do, I am not at all inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt. They either don't want my vote or take me for granted. So, frankly, they can fuck right off and come back when they have learnt as a bare minimum how to behave with a modicum of integrity, competence and basic decency.

    All politics is relative. The relevant comparison with the UK state and UK politics is not Utopia, the heavenly Jerusalem or the Kingdom of God but others states like Syria, Myanmar, China, Sudan and Russia.

    My vote for a party which can govern better than Assad and can lose an election without inciting insurrection is a tiny, very tiny, protest against the worst of regimes and exercises a freedom others don't have to keep the state within some civilized boundaries.

    Of the options IMHO currently Labour seems the better at the next election. Better than what? The current lot; and the mob that rule in about 150 other countries.

    As to the rest of your thoughts about the negligent wickedness of the powerful, Cyclefree, you are of course 100% correct.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,567
    Briefing docket on Trump's eligibility from the 'affirm' side now available, for those interested:

    https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23-719/298854/20240126115645084_23-719 Anderson Respondents Merits Brief.pdf
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,228

    Firstly, this is not, in any way, AI.

    It is, yet again, Machine Learning.

    It's also a type of Machine Learning that has had serious difficulties in the past. Any Machine Learning system is only as good as the data that is fed into it, and we can only hope that the dataset of picture accurately represents Britain's ethnic makeup...

    e.g.: https://www.wired.com/story/wrongful-arrests-ai-derailed-3-mens-lives/
    Computers are right by default. In law.

    Are you some kind of Trump Loving Neon Fascist Racist Imperialist implying that The Law* could be wrong?

    *Motorcycle with improbably wide tires not included. Helmet not included. Voice activated hand gun not included.
  • Cyclefree said:

    FPT by @tyson -

    "And, probably my most controversial opinion- I cannot see the problem in Trans being able to have some say on which gendered prison they go to. Again, subject to the prison authorities and a medical opinion. I've been in a lot of prisons over the years with work, including women's prisons where the person would be much safer in a gender prison they felt more aligned to."

    The misogyny on display here is quite something.

    Let's ignore for the moment Art. 3 of the ECHR or the Mandela Principles on prisons.

    The women prisoners are not even mentioned and the idea that they should have a say or, even, a veto on whether a male offender should be locked up with them simply does not even occur to him. Women prisoners must simply put up with the risk or reality of rape or violence or indecent exposure or voyeurism. Because their rights or views don't matter.

    And then @kinabalu has the nerve to say that trans rights are at risk of being rolled back. No they aren't: in this country trans people have exactly the same legal rights as everyone else. There is no political party which has put forward any proposal to remove any of these legal rights. What they do not have and should not have is the right to take away the rights of others - the right of women to single sex spaces, services or associations, for instance. And yet that is the explicit campaigning position of trans activist groups. It is the explicit position of such groups to want the removal of one type of offence of rape - rape by deception. Very progressive, that: wanting to be able to deceive women into sex.

    But, hey, who cares about consent!

    And what is also very common is those who come out with this totally ignore the court judgments which women have been winning in recent years, funded by endless crowd-funding, to preserve their existing rights. Those judgments are long but are worth reading, especially by those who opine on the law without understanding it, without understanding why ignoring what the law says causes real harm to others and without understanding the reality of what women have endured.

    There is something deeply unpleasant about the way in which any woman talking about women's' rights or needs or the reality of what life is like because of their sex is almost always automatically attacked as bigoted or hateful because she does not centre or deem as the only important thing the demands of men.

    I expect the usual suspects will do this to me too. But, fuck it, I don't care. Women are not support animals for men. Men's demands are not "rights". Men's feelings are not more important than anyone else's. Women's rights are human rights. Anyone seeking to limit or remove them is not, in any sense, "progressive" or "liberal".

    Surely the problem with this rant is it begs the question of whether trans women are women or men. And even if we grant that post-op trans women are women, what about the first day a man dons a frock: when does the transition occur.

    And as a practical matter in the context of prison, criminals as a class are not known for their veracity, and there is an incentive for cis men to pretend to be trans women in order to gain access to women's spaces or at least to get a cushier life (whether life in a women's prison is actually better than life in a men's prison is open to doubt but that's another matter).

    In the mean time, here is the Mail's list of women killed by men in 2023
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12799089/Heartbreaking-rollcall-women-girls-killed-men-2023-retired-teacher-83-Beatrice-Corry-murdered-son-Emma-Pattison-daughter-Lettie-Elianne-Andam-Grace-OMalley-Kumar-died-hands-males.html
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,228

    Or the DUP.

    I don’t often agree with you, @Leon, but I think Iran are a significant danger to world peace and freedom. Whether it’s Russia, Ukraine, Palestine, Yemen or North Korea, Iran seem to have their cancerous tentacles infecting peace. They need to be taught a severe lesson.
    The DUP are really quite moderate in their… DUPness. Compared to religious variants that demand the extermination of Everyone Who Does It Wrong.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,228
    Cyclefree said:

    The Post Office scandal - on top of many others - has so severely dented my belief in the capacity or willingness of the state or its institutions, including the legal system, to avoid doing harm or put right its mistakes, that I seriously wonder whether there is any point to politics at all.

    Why should I trust the state when I see how badly it behaves? Why should I bother doing the right thing when it does not even try to do likewise? When those who behave like scoundrels are rewarded and praised? And the rest of us treated like mugs?

    I will not be voting for the Tories. But as of now I am disinclined to vote for anyone at all. They all seem rotten, self-serving and incompetent. They have done a great deal to break the bonds of trust which should exist in a well-ordered society. They are doing very little to earn it, to earn mine anyway. Until they do, I am not at all inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt. They either don't want my vote or take me for granted. So, frankly, they can fuck right off and come back when they have learnt as a bare minimum how to behave with a modicum of integrity, competence and basic decency.

    Must finish the header(s)

    They speak exactly to this.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    I assume @ydoethur took the credit for today's success after this comment...
    ydoethur said:

    You just had to say that, didn't you?

    That said, Root and Wood will take any wickets going because with Leach out they're pretty much our only two bowlers.
This discussion has been closed.