politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The “any other” government option on this new Betfair mark
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shock Labour gain in Liverpool Toxteth...0
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Ipsos Mori is the new gold standard
Joe Murphy @JoeMurphyLondon
POLL: CON 32 (+2); LAB 29 (-4); LIB DEM 9 (+1); UKIP 14 (-2) @IpsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews0 -
@JoeMurphyLondon: Just 13% of public think Ed Miliband is "ready to be PM". 73% say he not, reveals @ipsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews0
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Savings - if only. He was told that he gets nothing because he lives with his girlfriend and she is in full-time work.FalseFlag said:
Unless he has more than 16k in savings he should be eligible.SouthamObserver said:
It sure is. My son - who left university in the summer - is out of work, looking for a job, but does not get JSA, or anything else for that matter.FrankBooth said:
931,000 is the total on jobseekers allowance I think. The total number of job seekers is clearly a lot higher than that.chestnut said:Job Vacancies: 687,000
Job Seekers: 931,7000 -
Cat+pigeons+reignition of Ed's defenestration machine = popcornTheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos Mori is the new gold standard
Joe Murphy @JoeMurphyLondon
POLL: CON 32 (+2); LAB 29 (-4); LIB DEM 9 (+1); UKIP 14 (-2) @IpsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews
Have we had a poll over the last three years with a Tory lead of that size?0 -
We have a few more floors to descend before Mr Miliband reaches the lower basement.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Antifrank, there's a floor eventually. If Miliband wants to go any lower he'll need to rewrite the laws of mathematics.
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Can you explain how I have used my son as a political football?FluffyThoughts said:
Please God!*SouthamObserver said:It sure is. My son - who left university in the summer - is out of work, looking for a job, but does not get JSA, or anything else for that matter.
Using your son as a political football. Hows your mum's local bus-service?
:a-man-with-no-shame:
* Not a request to :tumbleweed: but an exasperation to a Higher-Authority...!
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TheScreamingEagles said:
Ipsos Mori is the new gold standard
Joe Murphy @JoeMurphyLondon
POLL: CON 32 (+2); LAB 29 (-4); LIB DEM 9 (+1); UKIP 14 (-2) @IpsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews
The last +3 Cons lead was March 2012.
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That the biggest Tory lead since the Guardian ICM poll before the Omnishambles budget0
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Nick Clegg wouldn't be dumb enough to take deputy Prime Minister again would he?antifrank said:
I don't rule it out of court. The optics would not be good though.logical_song said:
Whereas the Tories would almost certainly have fewer votes than the Lab/Lib coalition and fewer MPs. So who lost?antifrank said:
The Lib Dems would struggle to help a Labour party into government where Labour had fewer votes and fewer seats and where the Lib Dem seat count had fallen sharply and the Lib Dem vote share had crashed. It would look like foisting a government of losers onto the British public.logical_song said:
A good argument.antifrank said:On topic, the main possibilities if there's a hung Parliament are Conservative minority government and Labour minority government. The Lib Dems look set to reject any further coalition with the Conservatives (the rank and file won't stand for it twice) and Labour look set to reject any coalition with the Lib Dems. UKIP won't want to support either main party in a formal coalition and neither will the SNP or the DUP.
For what it's worth, I expect that a minority government would be surprisingly stable, as the example of Scotland in 2007 shows. It's rarely in a majority's interest to see a minority government fall.
If Labour were one or two seats behind the Tories would they be able to stand back and let a weakened Cameron continue as PM or would they talk to the LibDems?
And there isn't much love for senior Lib Dems in Labour ranks. Nick Clegg as Deputy Prime Minister to Prime Minister Miliband would cause huge umbrage on the left, but Labour couldn't credibly simultaneously seek a coalition with the Lib Dems and demand Nick Clegg's head, especially not if it were behind in the seat count. Would the Labour party collectively decide that Paris was worth a mass? The Owen Jones op-ed pieces write themselves (come to think of it, a random Owen Jones op-ed generator would explain a lot).
It would look like a blighted government from the start.0 -
Roll him up and kick him at Ed Miliband.SouthamObserver said:
Can you explain how I use my son as a political football?FluffyThoughts said:
Please God!*SouthamObserver said:It sure is. My son - who left university in the summer - is out of work, looking for a job, but does not get JSA, or anything else for that matter.
Using your son as a political football. Hows your mum's local bus-service?
:a-man-with-no-shame:
* Not a request to :tumbleweed: but an exasperation to a Higher-Authority...!0 -
Sorry that the last line of spin from Labour has now been sunk. Balls "Recovery not benefiting the ordinary worker"..... Lab economic statements are now all balls.FrankBooth said:
Statistically insignificant. The poll the other day showed most people aren't feeling the recovery. The Tories need to accept that and work around it.TGOHF said:norman smith @BBCNormanS 1m1 minute ago
Pay (excluding bonuses) now outstripping inflation say ONS. 1.3% increase in pay. Inflation at 1.2%
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That's the biggest Tory lead since an ICM in March 2012...TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos Mori is the new gold standard
Joe Murphy @JoeMurphyLondon
POLL: CON 32 (+2); LAB 29 (-4); LIB DEM 9 (+1); UKIP 14 (-2) @IpsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews0 -
Amen brother.MarqueeMark said:
If Cameron keeps Ed out of Downing Street, he'll have friends enough on here...Innocent_Abroad said:(Slightly O/T) If we really are going to have 6 months of LibDem bashing from the Peebietories, it does rather raise the question of why Cameron went into coalition with them in the first place. Presumably it was to secure for himself five years in Downing Street and to prevent his activists mounting a putsch against him. One thing's for sure: if he doesn't get an outright majority next May, he'll have damn few friends on here.
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This is the highest Tory lead with Ipsos-Mori since October 20100
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Yes if he wants to take the party back to the days of Jo Grimmond.Alistair said:
Nick Clegg wouldn't be dumb enough to take deputy Prime Minister again would he?antifrank said:
I don't rule it out of court. The optics would not be good though.logical_song said:
Whereas the Tories would almost certainly have fewer votes than the Lab/Lib coalition and fewer MPs. So who lost?antifrank said:
The Lib Dems would struggle to help a Labour party into government where Labour had fewer votes and fewer seats and where the Lib Dem seat count had fallen sharply and the Lib Dem vote share had crashed. It would look like foisting a government of losers onto the British public.logical_song said:
A good argument.antifrank said:On topic, the main possibilities if there's a hung Parliament are Conservative minority government and Labour minority government. The Lib Dems look set to reject any further coalition with the Conservatives (the rank and file won't stand for it twice) and Labour look set to reject any coalition with the Lib Dems. UKIP won't want to support either main party in a formal coalition and neither will the SNP or the DUP.
For what it's worth, I expect that a minority government would be surprisingly stable, as the example of Scotland in 2007 shows. It's rarely in a majority's interest to see a minority government fall.
If Labour were one or two seats behind the Tories would they be able to stand back and let a weakened Cameron continue as PM or would they talk to the LibDems?
And there isn't much love for senior Lib Dems in Labour ranks. Nick Clegg as Deputy Prime Minister to Prime Minister Miliband would cause huge umbrage on the left, but Labour couldn't credibly simultaneously seek a coalition with the Lib Dems and demand Nick Clegg's head, especially not if it were behind in the seat count. Would the Labour party collectively decide that Paris was worth a mass? The Owen Jones op-ed pieces write themselves (come to think of it, a random Owen Jones op-ed generator would explain a lot).
It would look like a blighted government from the start.
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Three points. We are pre-omnishambles.TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos Mori is the new gold standard
Joe Murphy @JoeMurphyLondon
POLL: CON 32 (+2); LAB 29 (-4); LIB DEM 9 (+1); UKIP 14 (-2) @IpsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews
Ed Balls getting very angry and a bit shouty on Sky about wages .0 -
Good old Ed. He may singlehandedly gift the Tories another term. The worst leader of any major political party in this country in my lifetime, which began 50 years ago.0
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Are Labour now on less than GE2010 now?
Seems the speech where REd forgot to talk about the economy and immigration was the turning point?0 -
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Whatever Miliband's mistakes the briefings against him have clearly been disastrous for Labour. What were they thinking? Obvious Johnson wasn't going to come back. It's hard to work out the motive. Is it MPs worried about losing their seats to Ukip who want resources that are going into marginals? There's no point them trying to hold onto what they have. It's advance or nothing.0
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@DPJHodges: 13% of Britons believe Ed Miliband is up to the job of PM. 34% believe in ghosts.0
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This 13% probably has a core vote of Ed Miliband + wife. So room to drop further.Scott_P said:@JoeMurphyLondon: Just 13% of public think Ed Miliband is "ready to be PM". 73% say he not, reveals @ipsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews
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The Lib Dems should be happy with that result - does Ipsos Mori give a break-down for 'others' to show how the greens are fairing in this latest poll?TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos Mori is the new gold standard
Joe Murphy @JoeMurphyLondon
POLL: CON 32 (+2); LAB 29 (-4); LIB DEM 9 (+1); UKIP 14 (-2) @IpsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews0 -
SOSouthamObserver said:
It sure is. My son - who left university in the summer - is out of work, looking for a job, but does not get JSA, or anything else for that matter.FrankBooth said:
931,000 is the total on jobseekers allowance I think. The total number of job seekers is clearly a lot higher than that.chestnut said:Job Vacancies: 687,000
Job Seekers: 931,700
What was his degree and what does he want to do?0 -
The fieldwork for the IpsosMORI poll was Sat to Mon, when the Ed is crap meme hit its peak, so that in part explains the drop
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/blow-for-ed-miliband-as-poll-reveals-just-13-per-cent-think-he-could-be-pm-9855880.html0 -
Per the article, they're on 7 (+2)SimonStClare said:
The Lib Dems should be happy with that result - does Ipsos Mori give a break-down for 'others' to show how the greens are fairing in this latest poll?TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos Mori is the new gold standard
Joe Murphy @JoeMurphyLondon
POLL: CON 32 (+2); LAB 29 (-4); LIB DEM 9 (+1); UKIP 14 (-2) @IpsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews0 -
Probably an outlier. But a GE of Con 34, Lab 27 starts to look feasible. How that plays out in seats IHNFI.TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos Mori is the new gold standard
Joe Murphy @JoeMurphyLondon
POLL: CON 32 (+2); LAB 29 (-4); LIB DEM 9 (+1); UKIP 14 (-2) @IpsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews
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Those approval ratings for Ed Miliband are truly awful. To be significantly less well-regarded than Nick Clegg is a quite remarkable achievement.0
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Good poll to have just after every member of shadow cabinet stood firmly behind Ed and said "he's the man for us!". Do they cling loyally to the sinking ship, reveal their inate duplicity, or embark on a campaign of negative briefing? Choice, choices, choices.
*happy sigh*0 -
Labour at 29%, Lib Dems at 9%, a bit of swingback to them and Labour are heading towards 25%!!!!0
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Blimey. Robert's Robots. That takes me back a bit.stodge said:
One of the things the hoopla over the jobs-led recovery has been the fall in that key capital investment and the consequent fall in productivity as we invest in Roberts rather than robots.Financier said:
@NickPalmer bound to reveal the truth to employees - so why should politicians be the exception?
http://www.cultoftv.co.uk/cultkidstv/robertsrobots.htm0 -
You can get 2/1 with Ladbrokes on Labour getting less than their 2010 vote share. I've just put a small bet on that.0
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I've messaged a Labour activist friend the figures
His reply
The [moderated] going to poll lower than Gordon bloody Brown [expletives deleted]0 -
There are so many things happening that can't happen.TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos Mori is the new gold standard
Joe Murphy @JoeMurphyLondon
POLL: CON 32 (+2); LAB 29 (-4); LIB DEM 9 (+1); UKIP 14 (-2) @IpsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews
LibDems down to 9 but Labour only at the 2010 core of 29
Cons on 32 while UKIP at 14
In 2010 / 2011 if you had predicted those possibilities you would have had several people telling you Red LibDems would keep Labour high, High UKIP would deflate Cons.
Where are the parties headed for May 2015?
Cons - it is still possible to see some swingback - 32 to 35 range?
Lab - it is hard to see why they should gain 26 - 28 range?
LibDems should outperform polls 11 - 13 range?
UKIP will be much stickier than in the past 16 - 19 range?0 -
You mentioned that the other day, and I got on.antifrank said:You can get 2/1 with Ladbrokes on Labour getting less than their 2010 vote share. I've just put a small bet on that.
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Tipping point.0
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So Miliband is useless yet at the same time he's managed to convince people they're living standards aren't recovering when they are. That's some effort.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Sorry that the last line of spin from Labour has now been sunk. Balls "Recovery not benefiting the ordinary worker"..... Lab economic statements are now all balls.FrankBooth said:
Statistically insignificant. The poll the other day showed most people aren't feeling the recovery. The Tories need to accept that and work around it.TGOHF said:norman smith @BBCNormanS 1m1 minute ago
Pay (excluding bonuses) now outstripping inflation say ONS. 1.3% increase in pay. Inflation at 1.2%0 -
Worth mentioning that whilst it's more bad news for Miliband, it's only one poll. Unless other polls show something similar, it doesn't mean much.
Of course, I said much the same after the Ipsos-MORI poll showed Labour being crushed in Scotland.0 -
Tipping point.Scott_P said:@DPJHodges: 13% of Britons believe Ed Miliband is up to the job of PM. 34% believe in ghosts.
Tipping point.TheScreamingEagles said:This is the highest Tory lead with Ipsos-Mori since October 2010
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Brilliant. More than 10 per cent of the USA population believe they have seen an alien ship in the sky.Scott_P said:@DPJHodges: 13% of Britons believe Ed Miliband is up to the job of PM. 34% believe in ghosts.
We have entered the realms of the fruitcake core support group. Did one ex labour SPAD call folk Window Lickers? Or has my memory gone?
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There was a piece in the Times the other day, which had one Labour MP expressing the view of colleagues, that if we accept the current polling is something like Con 31, Lab 32philiph said:
There are so many things happening that can't happen.TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos Mori is the new gold standard
Joe Murphy @JoeMurphyLondon
POLL: CON 32 (+2); LAB 29 (-4); LIB DEM 9 (+1); UKIP 14 (-2) @IpsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews
LibDems down to 9 but Labour only at the 2010 core of 29
Cons on 32 while UKIP at 14
In 2010 / 2011 if you had predicted those possibilities you would have had several people telling you Red LibDems would keep Labour high, High UKIP would deflate Cons.
Where are the parties headed for May 2015?
Cons - it is still possible to see some swingback - 32 to 35 range?
Lab - it is hard to see why they should gain 26 - 28 range?
LibDems should outperform polls 11 - 13 range?
UKIP will be much stickier than in the past 16 - 19 range?
There's a distinct possibility the 2010 LD to Lab switchers will either go home or move on to the Greens, and we'll see some Swingback from Con to UKIP switchers (cf Lord A's poll yesterday)
Now, it is possible we will see a GE result of something like Con 35, Lab 27, which is in fact a bigger Con lead than 20100 -
Electoral Calculus
CON 294 LAB 292 LIB24
EICINPM0 -
As the wise Lord Ashcroft keeps on reminding us.
It's a snapshot, not a prediction0 -
How bad were the figures for the Conservatives when they were the main opposition 6 months prior to the GE?woody662 said:Labour at 29%, Lib Dems at 9%, a bit of swingback to them and Labour are heading towards 25%!!!!
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Is this the monthly IPSOS Monitor?TheScreamingEagles said:
The approval figures would point to an 11 point Tory vote lead and a clear majority, under the L&N model...
Tories 122 seats clear of Labour.
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That was Derek Draper during the height of the Red Rag kerfuffle.TCPoliticalBetting said:Did one ex labour SPAD call folk Window Lickers? Or has my memory gone?
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History.Financier said:
SOSouthamObserver said:
It sure is. My son - who left university in the summer - is out of work, looking for a job, but does not get JSA, or anything else for that matter.FrankBooth said:
931,000 is the total on jobseekers allowance I think. The total number of job seekers is clearly a lot higher than that.chestnut said:Job Vacancies: 687,000
Job Seekers: 931,700
What was his degree and what does he want to do?
He wants to be a teacher, so is looking for work for this year until he can do his training.
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Labour. Ha. Haha. Hahahahahahaha.RodCrosby said:
That's the biggest Tory lead since an ICM in March 2012...TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos Mori is the new gold standard
Joe Murphy @JoeMurphyLondon
POLL: CON 32 (+2); LAB 29 (-4); LIB DEM 9 (+1); UKIP 14 (-2) @IpsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews
Hahahahahahahaha!
Ahaha. Aha. Ha.
Mwahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!
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TCPoliticalBetting said:
Yes if he wants to take the party back to the days of Jo Grimmond.Alistair said:
Nick Clegg wouldn't be dumb enough to take deputy Prime Minister again would he?antifrank said:
I don't rule it out of court. The optics would not be good though.logical_song said:
Whereas the Tories would almost certainly have fewer votes than the Lab/Lib coalition and fewer MPs. So who lost?antifrank said:
The Lib Dems would struggle to help a Labour party into government where Labour had fewer votes and fewer seats and where the Lib Dem seat count had fallen sharply and the Lib Dem vote share had crashed. It would look like foisting a government of losers onto the British public.logical_song said:
A good argument.antifrank said:On topic, the main possibilities if there's a hung Parliament are Conservative minority government and Labour minority government. The Lib Dems look set to reject any further coalition with the Conservatives (the rank and file won't stand for it twice) and Labour look set to reject any coalition with the Lib Dems. UKIP won't want to support either main party in a formal coalition and neither will the SNP or the DUP.
For what it's worth, I expect that a minority government would be surprisingly stable, as the example of Scotland in 2007 shows. It's rarely in a majority's interest to see a minority government fall.
If Labour were one or two seats behind the Tories would they be able to stand back and let a weakened Cameron continue as PM or would they talk to the LibDems?
And there isn't much love for senior Lib Dems in Labour ranks. Nick Clegg as Deputy Prime Minister to Prime Minister Miliband would cause huge umbrage on the left, but Labour couldn't credibly simultaneously seek a coalition with the Lib Dems and demand Nick Clegg's head, especially not if it were behind in the seat count. Would the Labour party collectively decide that Paris was worth a mass? The Owen Jones op-ed pieces write themselves (come to think of it, a random Owen Jones op-ed generator would explain a lot).
It would look like a blighted government from the start.
The point of being in politics is to get your policies implemented. The Lib Dems have got many of their policies implemented. They will want to do so again if they can.
That most of the population do not value the Lib Dems contribution to the government avoiding a financial crisis (despite having a worse deficit than Greece) says more about the population than the Lib Dems.
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Yes I am very relieved this poll came out after the endorsements.Anorak said:Good poll to have just after every member of shadow cabinet stood firmly behind Ed and said "he's the man for us!". Do they cling loyally to the sinking ship, reveal their inate duplicity, or embark on a campaign of negative briefing? Choice, choices, choices.
*happy sigh*
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The much-missed Derek Draper, I believe.TCPoliticalBetting said:
We have entered the realms of the fruitcake core support group. Did one ex labour SPAD call folk Window Lickers? Or has my memory gone?Scott_P said:@DPJHodges: 13% of Britons believe Ed Miliband is up to the job of PM. 34% believe in ghosts.
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Ah, sorry, laziness on my part - cheers T_PTissue_Price said:
Per the article, they're on 7 (+2)SimonStClare said:
The Lib Dems should be happy with that result - does Ipsos Mori give a break-down for 'others' to show how the greens are fairing in this latest poll?TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos Mori is the new gold standard
Joe Murphy @JoeMurphyLondon
POLL: CON 32 (+2); LAB 29 (-4); LIB DEM 9 (+1); UKIP 14 (-2) @IpsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews0 -
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@DPJHodges: @MrHarryCole It is a snapshot. If Tories have 3% lead now, they'll be ahead by 7%-8% come polling day.TheScreamingEagles said:As the wise Lord Ashcroft keeps on reminding us.
It's a snapshot, not a prediction0 -
SNP on 8%.0
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I would debate that. Brown and Foot were dire.SouthamObserver said:Good old Ed. He may singlehandedly gift the Tories another term. The worst leader of any major political party in this country in my lifetime, which began 50 years ago.
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@DPJHodges: It's that time again: "@D_Blanchflower Labour's poll lead has held rock steady during 2014 little reason to believe it will change by GE".0
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I thought it was the % who believed they had been abducted by aliens?TCPoliticalBetting said:
Brilliant. More than 10 per cent of the USA population believe they have seen an alien ship in the sky.Scott_P said:@DPJHodges: 13% of Britons believe Ed Miliband is up to the job of PM. 34% believe in ghosts.
We have entered the realms of the fruitcake core support group. Did one ex labour SPAD call folk Window Lickers? Or has my memory gone?0 -
GE2015 could end up on: Con 35%, Lab 28%, Lib Dem 10%, UKIP 14%. Well done Ed.0
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Ipsos MORI sum up Ed Miliband's personal polling succinctly:
"Satisfaction in Ed Miliband as Labour leader is at its lowest ever level, with 21% satisfied in his performance and 65% dissatisfied, giving him a net rating (% satisfied minus % dissatisfied) of -44. This is the lowest level of satisfaction in any Labour leader since Gordon Brown at the height of the economic crisis in July 2008, who received the same score; the last Labour leader to have a lower score was Michael Foot in the days following Margaret Thatcher’s landslide victory in the 1983 general election. His satisfaction rating is now lower than for Nick Clegg for the first time since January 2012; indeed, satisfaction in the Deputy Prime Minister has never been lower than Ed Miliband’s current rating during this Parliament."0 -
Con lead zero on all giving a VI
Ed's rating comfortably lower than Nick Clegg's ratings
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B2PaIZoIYAAbD78.jpg:large0 -
The SNP are on 8% in the poll. 59% in Scotland!
p.4
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/political-monitor-nov-2014-tables.pdf0 -
IDS?TCPoliticalBetting said:
I would debate that. Brown and Foot were dire.SouthamObserver said:Good old Ed. He may singlehandedly gift the Tories another term. The worst leader of any major political party in this country in my lifetime, which began 50 years ago.
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The waves lap in and out, but watch enough of them and you can tell which way the tide is going. The old lows become normal.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Probably an outlier. But a GE of Con 34, Lab 27 starts to look feasible. How that plays out in seats IHNFI.TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos Mori is the new gold standard
Joe Murphy @JoeMurphyLondon
POLL: CON 32 (+2); LAB 29 (-4); LIB DEM 9 (+1); UKIP 14 (-2) @IpsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews
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On those figures, Chestnut, who do you think would be PM, and what would be the nature of the Government (e.g. Minority Con, Minority Lab, Coalition Con + LD + ? ).chestnut said:Electoral Calculus
CON 294 LAB 292 LIB24
EICINPM
And what would the situation be if you tweaked the calculator a bit and allocated 10 more seats to SNP and 10 to UKIP?
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That implies something above 60% in Scotland.Artist said:SNP on 8%.
Usual warnings about subsamples apply, but that is remarkable even for a subsample.0 -
"Dissatisfaction with Mr Miliband among Labour supporters is at 58%, the highest level of dissatisfaction we have ever recorded for any leader among their own supporters in the twenty years we have recorded this data...."0
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Close, 59%antifrank said:
That implies something above 60% in Scotland.Artist said:SNP on 8%.
Usual warnings about subsamples apply, but that is remarkable even for a subsample.
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/political-monitor-nov-2014-tables.pdf
A few weeks ago Lord A had the North British subsample with the SNP on 60% plus0 -
Must be an outlier. As trust-worthy as Sterling's performance against Brent-Crude....TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos Mori is the new gold standard
Joe Murphy @JoeMurphyLondon
POLL: CON 32 (+2); LAB 29 (-4); LIB DEM 9 (+1); UKIP 14 (-2) @IpsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews
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Balls was absolutely floundering on Sky today.. the man just has nothing sensible to say0
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You would see Nigel Farage demand David Cameron's head as part of the price for UKIP acquiescence to a Conservative government. So I guess we might well see Prime Minister Hammond.Peter_the_Punter said:
On those figures, Chestnut, who do you think would be PM, and what would be the nature of the Government (e.g. Minority Con, Minority Lab, Coalition Con + LD + ? ).chestnut said:Electoral Calculus
CON 294 LAB 292 LIB24
EICINPM
And what would the situation be if you tweaked the calculator a bit and allocated 10 more seats to SNP and 10 to UKIP?0 -
Can Ed survive? What if a few shadow cabinet members resign if he is asked ( and refuses ) to go? Would the pressure become insurmountable?RodCrosby said:"Dissatisfaction with Mr Miliband among Labour supporters is at 58%, the highest level of dissatisfaction we have ever recorded for any leader among their own supporters in the twenty years we have recorded this data...."
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At least Danny Blanchflower was never given an important job involving forecasting. Oh.Scott_P said:@DPJHodges: It's that time again: "@D_Blanchflower Labour's poll lead has held rock steady during 2014 little reason to believe it will change by GE".
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It's a shame nobody pointed out to Labour that Ed Miliband might be crap.0
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Oh kerchingantifrank said:
You would see Nigel Farage demand David Cameron's head as part of the price for UKIP acquiescence to a Conservative government. So I guess we might well see Prime Minister Hammond.Peter_the_Punter said:
On those figures, Chestnut, who do you think would be PM, and what would be the nature of the Government (e.g. Minority Con, Minority Lab, Coalition Con + LD + ? ).chestnut said:Electoral Calculus
CON 294 LAB 292 LIB24
EICINPM
And what would the situation be if you tweaked the calculator a bit and allocated 10 more seats to SNP and 10 to UKIP?0 -
of course the delicious aspect of this poll is its release just as the Ed out rebellion fizzles to a damp squib.
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The argument from some was that Hattie would take over.Casino_Royale said:Can Ed survive? What if a few shadow cabinet members resign if he is asked ( and refuses ) to go? Would the pressure become insurmountable?
@DPJHodges: Those saying change of leader wouldn't help should reflect on the fact Labour polled better under Harriet Harman than it has today under Ed.0 -
You raised his predicament as a symbol of the current government. Both yourself and I have experienced unemployment: You see your experience as a right-of-passage; myself - well - it is a fact of life. Did you mention to your son you were about to unleash - whatever path you expect - his situation onto cynics like me...?SouthamObserver said:Can you explain how I have used my son as a political football?
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What a tool - Blanchflower really is the Edie Izzard of economists...Scott_P said:@DPJHodges: It's that time again: "@D_Blanchflower Labour's poll lead has held rock steady during 2014 little reason to believe it will change by GE".
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IpsosMori does tend to give volatile results (perhaps because of their strict 'certainty to vote' filter), so we shouldn't panic yet; Ed might still be safe.
All the same, in the past Ipsos Mori has quite often picked up trends earlier than other pollsters, and for that reason what most surprises me about this latest poll is that the UKIP figure is down. I'd have expected it to be up, given recent newsflow.0 -
Looks like you really believe that stuff, so I apologise for upsetting you.Casino_Royale said:
Not at all. You replied cloud-cuckoo land to the *whole* of my original post, you didn't specify which bits. Your subsequent replies here have demonstrated you didn't understand what I was saying, and that you don't really know what you're talking about.logical_song said:
You are moving the goalposts. The cloud-cuckoo part wasn't Tories getting 310 MPs it was the rest of your post.Casino_Royale said:
Ah, so you don't think my forecast is cloud-cuckoo land then? Funny how views change when money is involved.logical_song said:
Typo 2015logical_song said:
That's not a great bet, I think it quite likely that the Tories will get 310 MPs.Casino_Royale said:
Given you think my forecasts are fantasy, this is a great bet for you.logical_song said:logical_song said:Casino_Royale said:
I don't think so. It's a perfectly plausible scenario for next May.logical_song said:
Cloud - cuckoo land.Casino_Royale said:An interesting scenario: Labour has a 'mare in May. They pick up only 6-7 of the most hypermarginals from the Tories. Meanwhile, the Tories drop only 4-5 seats to UKIP but pick up 17 seats: 16 Lib Dem and 1 Labour (Itchen)
.
Your offer at evens is not attractive. I can get much better odds elsewhere. Besides which, that eventuality is a Con Min government - propped up up DUP/UKIP for key votes only, and others such as the EU ref - and would be covered by my Con Min bet at 10/1.
For reference, I've never said a formal Tory/UKIP/DUP coalition would happen.
I don't mind having a debate, but if you dismiss out-of-hand what I consider to be a carefully thought out political scenario, with analysis behind it, as fantasy (without understanding it, or having any analysis of your own to back it up) expect to be called out on it. I post on here what I consider to be carefully thought through posts. I do expect to be challenged but I don't expect to be patronised.
Right, now I have some proper work to do.
Good day.
However you're not prepared to risk £20 at evens on the central part of your post which was that the Tories, with DUP and UKIP support may well govern after 2015 in order to get a referendum on withdrawing from Europe. That is what I consider to be cloud-cuckoo land and I stick to that.
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I don't think Mr Cameron would much mind. He'd probably rather be on the ex-PM circuit than in parliament.antifrank said:
You would see Nigel Farage demand David Cameron's head as part of the price for UKIP acquiescence to a Conservative government. So I guess we might well see Prime Minister Hammond.Peter_the_Punter said:
On those figures, Chestnut, who do you think would be PM, and what would be the nature of the Government (e.g. Minority Con, Minority Lab, Coalition Con + LD + ? ).chestnut said:Electoral Calculus
CON 294 LAB 292 LIB24
EICINPM
And what would the situation be if you tweaked the calculator a bit and allocated 10 more seats to SNP and 10 to UKIP?0 -
Farage with his 2 seats wont be in a position to demand very much at all.antifrank said:
You would see Nigel Farage demand David Cameron's head as part of the price for UKIP acquiescence to a Conservative government. So I guess we might well see Prime Minister Hammond.Peter_the_Punter said:
On those figures, Chestnut, who do you think would be PM, and what would be the nature of the Government (e.g. Minority Con, Minority Lab, Coalition Con + LD + ? ).chestnut said:Electoral Calculus
CON 294 LAB 292 LIB24
EICINPM
And what would the situation be if you tweaked the calculator a bit and allocated 10 more seats to SNP and 10 to UKIP?
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Mr. P, Harman's a poster girl for politically correct nonsense. She might do better against the Conservatives, but she may drive away even more WWC types than Miliband has. Good for UKIP if she leads Labour (I recall her claiming calling a woman in a pub 'love' was sexist. One can only assume she's never braved the wild lands beyond the M25).0
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In the 05 Parliament things were about level pegging at this stage I thinkTCPoliticalBetting said:
How bad were the figures for the Conservatives when they were the main opposition 6 months prior to the GE?woody662 said:Labour at 29%, Lib Dems at 9%, a bit of swingback to them and Labour are heading towards 25%!!!!
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Lucy Powell gets her man another day of headlines. She is some operator...0
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Star Trek Geek Points
@DPJHodges: Labour can't win with Ed, and they can't win if they defenestrate Ed. The entire PLP are now trapped within the Kobayashi Maru scenario.0 -
Watching GE 64.
Some things never change.
Dorset South by election had a Tory split over the Common Market.
Immigration problematic and Labour equivocating over it.
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You can get a little bit of 9/2 against that eventuality, TGOHF.TGOHF said:
Farage with his 2 seats wont be in a position to demand very much at all.antifrank said:
You would see Nigel Farage demand David Cameron's head as part of the price for UKIP acquiescence to a Conservative government. So I guess we might well see Prime Minister Hammond.Peter_the_Punter said:
On those figures, Chestnut, who do you think would be PM, and what would be the nature of the Government (e.g. Minority Con, Minority Lab, Coalition Con + LD + ? ).chestnut said:Electoral Calculus
CON 294 LAB 292 LIB24
EICINPM
And what would the situation be if you tweaked the calculator a bit and allocated 10 more seats to SNP and 10 to UKIP?0 -
I have developed a feeling, which I'm struggling to shake, that the Tories and SNP will do a devo/EV4EL carve up if there is a Tory minority government.Peter_the_Punter said:On those figures, Chestnut, who do you think would be PM, and what would be the nature of the Government (e.g. Minority Con, Minority Lab, Coalition Con + LD + ? ).
And what would the situation be if you tweaked the calculator a bit and allocated 10 more seats to SNP and 10 to UKIP?
Using the regional predictor with a national vote of 32-29-9 generates:
CON 281 LAB 273 LIB 19 NAT 51 OTH 20
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Those Ipsos Mori numbers are horrendous for Labour. That's two polls this week putting Labour marginally below their 2010 vote share.0
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I'm beginning to consider the Mark Senior school of thought that selling Kippers at 8 seats is the strategy to take.Peter_the_Punter said:
You can get a little bit of 9/2 against that eventuality, TGOHF.TGOHF said:
Farage with his 2 seats wont be in a position to demand very much at all.antifrank said:
You would see Nigel Farage demand David Cameron's head as part of the price for UKIP acquiescence to a Conservative government. So I guess we might well see Prime Minister Hammond.Peter_the_Punter said:
On those figures, Chestnut, who do you think would be PM, and what would be the nature of the Government (e.g. Minority Con, Minority Lab, Coalition Con + LD + ? ).chestnut said:Electoral Calculus
CON 294 LAB 292 LIB24
EICINPM
And what would the situation be if you tweaked the calculator a bit and allocated 10 more seats to SNP and 10 to UKIP?
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That seems improbable, Chestnut, but as Sherlock said 'When you have eliminated the impossible, you are left with the answer, however improbable.'chestnut said:
I have developed a feeling, which I'm struggling to shake, that the Tories and SNP will do a devo/EV4EL carve up if there is a Tory minority government.Peter_the_Punter said:On those figures, Chestnut, who do you think would be PM, and what would be the nature of the Government (e.g. Minority Con, Minority Lab, Coalition Con + LD + ? ).
And what would the situation be if you tweaked the calculator a bit and allocated 10 more seats to SNP and 10 to UKIP?
Using the regional predictor with a national vote of 32-29-9 generates:
CON 281 LAB 273 LIB 19 NAT 51 OTH 20
In other words, you could be right.0 -
My guess is that this outcome would give something like Con 295, Labour 250, Lib Dem 30, UKIP 5, Northern Ireland 18, Nationalists 52.0
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Nope. My scenario was that the Tories get 311 seats (but it could be in a range from 310 to 315 seats) and have an alternative option to a Lib Dem coalition: confidence & supply from both the DUP and UKIP. My point is that they would deliver a eurosceptic majority in the House, and the votes would be there to deliver an EU referendum, so there could be pressure on Cameron to take that path instead of a 2nd Lib Dem coalition. If he chooses a solo Minority, the votes are still there for negotiating if he needs them. It is not a prediction, or what I expect to happen. Although i think it plausible that it could.logical_song said:
Looks like you really believe that stuff, so I apologise for upsetting you.Casino_Royale said:
Good day.logical_song said:
You are moving the goalposts. The cloud-cuckoo part wasn't Tories getting 310 MPs it was the rest of your post.Casino_Royale said:
Ah, so you don't think my forecast is cloud-cuckoo land then? Funny how views change when money is involved.logical_song said:
Typo 2015logical_song said:
That's not a great bet, I think it quite likely that the Tories will get 310 MPs.Casino_Royale said:
Given you think my forecasts are fantasy, this is a great bet for you.logical_song said:logical_song said:Casino_Royale said:
I don't think so. It's a perfectly plausible scenario for next May.logical_song said:
Cloud - cuckoo land.Casino_Royale said:An interesting scenario: Labour has a 'mare in May. They pick up only 6-7 of the most hypermarginals from the Tories. Meanwhile, the Tories drop only 4-5 seats to UKIP but pick up 17 seats: 16 Lib Dem and 1 Labour (Itchen)
.
Your offer at evens is not attractive. I can get much better odds elsewhere. Besides which, that eventuality is a Con Min government - propped up up DUP/UKIP for key votes only, and others such as the EU ref - and would be covered by my Con Min bet at 10/1.
For reference, I've never said a formal Tory/UKIP/DUP coalition would happen.
However you're not prepared to risk £20 at evens on the central part of your post which was that the Tories, with DUP and UKIP support may well govern after 2015 in order to get a referendum on withdrawing from Europe. That is what I consider to be cloud-cuckoo land and I stick to that.
Make sense?
On your second point, I only take value bets. Evens is far too short, and I think you know it.
Apology accepted.
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New Thread0
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29 is the score for people who flag up as labour.
The number who turn out to vote for Ed Miliband's labour party tends to underperform the poll scores.
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Most seats at GE, Shadsy goes 10/11 Lab & Con
Lab maj out to 100/300
