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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The “any other” government option on this new Betfair mark

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  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    shock Labour gain in Liverpool Toxteth...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,960
    edited November 2014
    Ipsos Mori is the new gold standard

    Joe Murphy ‏@JoeMurphyLondon

    POLL: CON 32 (+2); LAB 29 (-4); LIB DEM 9 (+1); UKIP 14 (-2) @IpsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JoeMurphyLondon: Just 13% of public think Ed Miliband is "ready to be PM". 73% say he not, reveals @ipsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews
  • FalseFlag said:

    chestnut said:

    Job Vacancies: 687,000
    Job Seekers: 931,700

    931,000 is the total on jobseekers allowance I think. The total number of job seekers is clearly a lot higher than that.

    It sure is. My son - who left university in the summer - is out of work, looking for a job, but does not get JSA, or anything else for that matter.

    Unless he has more than 16k in savings he should be eligible.

    Savings - if only. He was told that he gets nothing because he lives with his girlfriend and she is in full-time work.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited November 2014

    Ipsos Mori is the new gold standard

    Joe Murphy ‏@JoeMurphyLondon

    POLL: CON 32 (+2); LAB 29 (-4); LIB DEM 9 (+1); UKIP 14 (-2) @IpsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews

    Cat+pigeons+reignition of Ed's defenestration machine = popcorn

    Have we had a poll over the last three years with a Tory lead of that size?
  • Mr. Antifrank, there's a floor eventually. If Miliband wants to go any lower he'll need to rewrite the laws of mathematics.

    We have a few more floors to descend before Mr Miliband reaches the lower basement.
  • It sure is. My son - who left university in the summer - is out of work, looking for a job, but does not get JSA, or anything else for that matter.

    Please God!*

    Using your son as a political football. Hows your mum's local bus-service?

    :a-man-with-no-shame:

    * Not a request to :tumbleweed: but an exasperation to a Higher-Authority...! :)

    Can you explain how I have used my son as a political football?

  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Ipsos Mori is the new gold standard

    Joe Murphy ‏@JoeMurphyLondon

    POLL: CON 32 (+2); LAB 29 (-4); LIB DEM 9 (+1); UKIP 14 (-2) @IpsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews


    The last +3 Cons lead was March 2012.

  • That the biggest Tory lead since the Guardian ICM poll before the Omnishambles budget
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    On topic, the main possibilities if there's a hung Parliament are Conservative minority government and Labour minority government. The Lib Dems look set to reject any further coalition with the Conservatives (the rank and file won't stand for it twice) and Labour look set to reject any coalition with the Lib Dems. UKIP won't want to support either main party in a formal coalition and neither will the SNP or the DUP.

    For what it's worth, I expect that a minority government would be surprisingly stable, as the example of Scotland in 2007 shows. It's rarely in a majority's interest to see a minority government fall.

    A good argument.
    If Labour were one or two seats behind the Tories would they be able to stand back and let a weakened Cameron continue as PM or would they talk to the LibDems?
    The Lib Dems would struggle to help a Labour party into government where Labour had fewer votes and fewer seats and where the Lib Dem seat count had fallen sharply and the Lib Dem vote share had crashed. It would look like foisting a government of losers onto the British public.
    Whereas the Tories would almost certainly have fewer votes than the Lab/Lib coalition and fewer MPs. So who lost?
    I don't rule it out of court. The optics would not be good though.

    And there isn't much love for senior Lib Dems in Labour ranks. Nick Clegg as Deputy Prime Minister to Prime Minister Miliband would cause huge umbrage on the left, but Labour couldn't credibly simultaneously seek a coalition with the Lib Dems and demand Nick Clegg's head, especially not if it were behind in the seat count. Would the Labour party collectively decide that Paris was worth a mass? The Owen Jones op-ed pieces write themselves (come to think of it, a random Owen Jones op-ed generator would explain a lot).

    It would look like a blighted government from the start.
    Nick Clegg wouldn't be dumb enough to take deputy Prime Minister again would he?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited November 2014

    It sure is. My son - who left university in the summer - is out of work, looking for a job, but does not get JSA, or anything else for that matter.

    Please God!*

    Using your son as a political football. Hows your mum's local bus-service?

    :a-man-with-no-shame:

    * Not a request to :tumbleweed: but an exasperation to a Higher-Authority...! :)

    Can you explain how I use my son as a political football?

    Roll him up and kick him at Ed Miliband.
  • TGOHF said:

    norman smith ‏@BBCNormanS 1m1 minute ago
    Pay (excluding bonuses) now outstripping inflation say ONS. 1.3% increase in pay. Inflation at 1.2%

    Statistically insignificant. The poll the other day showed most people aren't feeling the recovery. The Tories need to accept that and work around it.
    Sorry that the last line of spin from Labour has now been sunk. Balls "Recovery not benefiting the ordinary worker"..... Lab economic statements are now all balls.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Ipsos Mori is the new gold standard

    Joe Murphy ‏@JoeMurphyLondon

    POLL: CON 32 (+2); LAB 29 (-4); LIB DEM 9 (+1); UKIP 14 (-2) @IpsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews

    That's the biggest Tory lead since an ICM in March 2012...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    (Slightly O/T) If we really are going to have 6 months of LibDem bashing from the Peebietories, it does rather raise the question of why Cameron went into coalition with them in the first place. Presumably it was to secure for himself five years in Downing Street and to prevent his activists mounting a putsch against him. One thing's for sure: if he doesn't get an outright majority next May, he'll have damn few friends on here.

    If Cameron keeps Ed out of Downing Street, he'll have friends enough on here...

    Amen brother.
  • This is the highest Tory lead with Ipsos-Mori since October 2010
  • Alistair said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    On topic, the main possibilities if there's a hung Parliament are Conservative minority government and Labour minority government. The Lib Dems look set to reject any further coalition with the Conservatives (the rank and file won't stand for it twice) and Labour look set to reject any coalition with the Lib Dems. UKIP won't want to support either main party in a formal coalition and neither will the SNP or the DUP.

    For what it's worth, I expect that a minority government would be surprisingly stable, as the example of Scotland in 2007 shows. It's rarely in a majority's interest to see a minority government fall.

    A good argument.
    If Labour were one or two seats behind the Tories would they be able to stand back and let a weakened Cameron continue as PM or would they talk to the LibDems?
    The Lib Dems would struggle to help a Labour party into government where Labour had fewer votes and fewer seats and where the Lib Dem seat count had fallen sharply and the Lib Dem vote share had crashed. It would look like foisting a government of losers onto the British public.
    Whereas the Tories would almost certainly have fewer votes than the Lab/Lib coalition and fewer MPs. So who lost?
    I don't rule it out of court. The optics would not be good though.

    And there isn't much love for senior Lib Dems in Labour ranks. Nick Clegg as Deputy Prime Minister to Prime Minister Miliband would cause huge umbrage on the left, but Labour couldn't credibly simultaneously seek a coalition with the Lib Dems and demand Nick Clegg's head, especially not if it were behind in the seat count. Would the Labour party collectively decide that Paris was worth a mass? The Owen Jones op-ed pieces write themselves (come to think of it, a random Owen Jones op-ed generator would explain a lot).

    It would look like a blighted government from the start.
    Nick Clegg wouldn't be dumb enough to take deputy Prime Minister again would he?
    Yes if he wants to take the party back to the days of Jo Grimmond.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited November 2014

    Ipsos Mori is the new gold standard

    Joe Murphy ‏@JoeMurphyLondon

    POLL: CON 32 (+2); LAB 29 (-4); LIB DEM 9 (+1); UKIP 14 (-2) @IpsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews

    Three points. We are pre-omnishambles.

    Ed Balls getting very angry and a bit shouty on Sky about wages .
  • Good old Ed. He may singlehandedly gift the Tories another term. The worst leader of any major political party in this country in my lifetime, which began 50 years ago.
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    Are Labour now on less than GE2010 now?

    Seems the speech where REd forgot to talk about the economy and immigration was the turning point?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Whatever Miliband's mistakes the briefings against him have clearly been disastrous for Labour. What were they thinking? Obvious Johnson wasn't going to come back. It's hard to work out the motive. Is it MPs worried about losing their seats to Ukip who want resources that are going into marginals? There's no point them trying to hold onto what they have. It's advance or nothing.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: 13% of Britons believe Ed Miliband is up to the job of PM. 34% believe in ghosts.
  • Scott_P said:

    @JoeMurphyLondon: Just 13% of public think Ed Miliband is "ready to be PM". 73% say he not, reveals @ipsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews

    This 13% probably has a core vote of Ed Miliband + wife. So room to drop further.
  • Ipsos Mori is the new gold standard

    Joe Murphy ‏@JoeMurphyLondon

    POLL: CON 32 (+2); LAB 29 (-4); LIB DEM 9 (+1); UKIP 14 (-2) @IpsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews

    The Lib Dems should be happy with that result - does Ipsos Mori give a break-down for 'others' to show how the greens are fairing in this latest poll?
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    chestnut said:

    Job Vacancies: 687,000
    Job Seekers: 931,700

    931,000 is the total on jobseekers allowance I think. The total number of job seekers is clearly a lot higher than that.

    It sure is. My son - who left university in the summer - is out of work, looking for a job, but does not get JSA, or anything else for that matter.

    SO

    What was his degree and what does he want to do?
  • The fieldwork for the IpsosMORI poll was Sat to Mon, when the Ed is crap meme hit its peak, so that in part explains the drop

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/blow-for-ed-miliband-as-poll-reveals-just-13-per-cent-think-he-could-be-pm-9855880.html
  • Ipsos Mori is the new gold standard

    Joe Murphy ‏@JoeMurphyLondon

    POLL: CON 32 (+2); LAB 29 (-4); LIB DEM 9 (+1); UKIP 14 (-2) @IpsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews

    The Lib Dems should be happy with that result - does Ipsos Mori give a break-down for 'others' to show how the greens are fairing in this latest poll?
    Per the article, they're on 7 (+2)
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited November 2014

    Ipsos Mori is the new gold standard

    Joe Murphy ‏@JoeMurphyLondon

    POLL: CON 32 (+2); LAB 29 (-4); LIB DEM 9 (+1); UKIP 14 (-2) @IpsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews

    Probably an outlier. But a GE of Con 34, Lab 27 starts to look feasible. How that plays out in seats IHNFI.
  • Those approval ratings for Ed Miliband are truly awful. To be significantly less well-regarded than Nick Clegg is a quite remarkable achievement.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited November 2014
    Good poll to have just after every member of shadow cabinet stood firmly behind Ed and said "he's the man for us!". Do they cling loyally to the sinking ship, reveal their inate duplicity, or embark on a campaign of negative briefing? Choice, choices, choices.

    *happy sigh*
  • woody662woody662 Posts: 255
    Labour at 29%, Lib Dems at 9%, a bit of swingback to them and Labour are heading towards 25%!!!!
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    stodge said:

    Financier said:


    @NickPalmer bound to reveal the truth to employees - so why should politicians be the exception?

    One of the things the hoopla over the jobs-led recovery has been the fall in that key capital investment and the consequent fall in productivity as we invest in Roberts rather than robots.
    Blimey. Robert's Robots. That takes me back a bit.

    http://www.cultoftv.co.uk/cultkidstv/robertsrobots.htm
  • You can get 2/1 with Ladbrokes on Labour getting less than their 2010 vote share. I've just put a small bet on that.
  • I've messaged a Labour activist friend the figures

    His reply

    The [moderated] going to poll lower than Gordon bloody Brown [expletives deleted]
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Ipsos Mori is the new gold standard

    Joe Murphy ‏@JoeMurphyLondon

    POLL: CON 32 (+2); LAB 29 (-4); LIB DEM 9 (+1); UKIP 14 (-2) @IpsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews

    There are so many things happening that can't happen.

    LibDems down to 9 but Labour only at the 2010 core of 29
    Cons on 32 while UKIP at 14

    In 2010 / 2011 if you had predicted those possibilities you would have had several people telling you Red LibDems would keep Labour high, High UKIP would deflate Cons.

    Where are the parties headed for May 2015?

    Cons - it is still possible to see some swingback - 32 to 35 range?
    Lab - it is hard to see why they should gain 26 - 28 range?
    LibDems should outperform polls 11 - 13 range?
    UKIP will be much stickier than in the past 16 - 19 range?
  • antifrank said:

    You can get 2/1 with Ladbrokes on Labour getting less than their 2010 vote share. I've just put a small bet on that.

    You mentioned that the other day, and I got on.
  • Tipping point.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928

    TGOHF said:

    norman smith ‏@BBCNormanS 1m1 minute ago
    Pay (excluding bonuses) now outstripping inflation say ONS. 1.3% increase in pay. Inflation at 1.2%

    Statistically insignificant. The poll the other day showed most people aren't feeling the recovery. The Tories need to accept that and work around it.
    Sorry that the last line of spin from Labour has now been sunk. Balls "Recovery not benefiting the ordinary worker"..... Lab economic statements are now all balls.
    So Miliband is useless yet at the same time he's managed to convince people they're living standards aren't recovering when they are. That's some effort.
  • Worth mentioning that whilst it's more bad news for Miliband, it's only one poll. Unless other polls show something similar, it doesn't mean much.

    Of course, I said much the same after the Ipsos-MORI poll showed Labour being crushed in Scotland.
  • Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: 13% of Britons believe Ed Miliband is up to the job of PM. 34% believe in ghosts.

    Tipping point.

    This is the highest Tory lead with Ipsos-Mori since October 2010

    Tipping point.
  • Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: 13% of Britons believe Ed Miliband is up to the job of PM. 34% believe in ghosts.

    Brilliant. More than 10 per cent of the USA population believe they have seen an alien ship in the sky.

    We have entered the realms of the fruitcake core support group. Did one ex labour SPAD call folk Window Lickers? Or has my memory gone?
  • philiph said:

    Ipsos Mori is the new gold standard

    Joe Murphy ‏@JoeMurphyLondon

    POLL: CON 32 (+2); LAB 29 (-4); LIB DEM 9 (+1); UKIP 14 (-2) @IpsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews

    There are so many things happening that can't happen.

    LibDems down to 9 but Labour only at the 2010 core of 29
    Cons on 32 while UKIP at 14

    In 2010 / 2011 if you had predicted those possibilities you would have had several people telling you Red LibDems would keep Labour high, High UKIP would deflate Cons.

    Where are the parties headed for May 2015?

    Cons - it is still possible to see some swingback - 32 to 35 range?
    Lab - it is hard to see why they should gain 26 - 28 range?
    LibDems should outperform polls 11 - 13 range?
    UKIP will be much stickier than in the past 16 - 19 range?
    There was a piece in the Times the other day, which had one Labour MP expressing the view of colleagues, that if we accept the current polling is something like Con 31, Lab 32

    There's a distinct possibility the 2010 LD to Lab switchers will either go home or move on to the Greens, and we'll see some Swingback from Con to UKIP switchers (cf Lord A's poll yesterday)

    Now, it is possible we will see a GE result of something like Con 35, Lab 27, which is in fact a bigger Con lead than 2010
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Electoral Calculus

    CON 294 LAB 292 LIB24

    EICINPM
  • As the wise Lord Ashcroft keeps on reminding us.

    It's a snapshot, not a prediction
  • woody662 said:

    Labour at 29%, Lib Dems at 9%, a bit of swingback to them and Labour are heading towards 25%!!!!

    How bad were the figures for the Conservatives when they were the main opposition 6 months prior to the GE?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited November 2014
    Is this the monthly IPSOS Monitor?

    The approval figures would point to an 11 point Tory vote lead and a clear majority, under the L&N model...

    Tories 122 seats clear of Labour.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Did one ex labour SPAD call folk Window Lickers? Or has my memory gone?

    That was Derek Draper during the height of the Red Rag kerfuffle.
  • RodCrosby said:

    Ipsos Mori is the new gold standard

    Joe Murphy ‏@JoeMurphyLondon

    POLL: CON 32 (+2); LAB 29 (-4); LIB DEM 9 (+1); UKIP 14 (-2) @IpsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews

    That's the biggest Tory lead since an ICM in March 2012...
    Labour. Ha. Haha. Hahahahahahaha.

    Hahahahahahahaha!

    Ahaha. Aha. Ha.

    Mwahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!
  • Financier said:

    chestnut said:

    Job Vacancies: 687,000
    Job Seekers: 931,700

    931,000 is the total on jobseekers allowance I think. The total number of job seekers is clearly a lot higher than that.

    It sure is. My son - who left university in the summer - is out of work, looking for a job, but does not get JSA, or anything else for that matter.

    SO

    What was his degree and what does he want to do?

    History.

    He wants to be a teacher, so is looking for work for this year until he can do his training.

  • Anorak said:

    Good poll to have just after every member of shadow cabinet stood firmly behind Ed and said "he's the man for us!". Do they cling loyally to the sinking ship, reveal their inate duplicity, or embark on a campaign of negative briefing? Choice, choices, choices.
    *happy sigh*

    Yes I am very relieved this poll came out after the endorsements.
  • Alistair said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    On topic, the main possibilities if there's a hung Parliament are Conservative minority government and Labour minority government. The Lib Dems look set to reject any further coalition with the Conservatives (the rank and file won't stand for it twice) and Labour look set to reject any coalition with the Lib Dems. UKIP won't want to support either main party in a formal coalition and neither will the SNP or the DUP.

    For what it's worth, I expect that a minority government would be surprisingly stable, as the example of Scotland in 2007 shows. It's rarely in a majority's interest to see a minority government fall.

    A good argument.
    If Labour were one or two seats behind the Tories would they be able to stand back and let a weakened Cameron continue as PM or would they talk to the LibDems?
    The Lib Dems would struggle to help a Labour party into government where Labour had fewer votes and fewer seats and where the Lib Dem seat count had fallen sharply and the Lib Dem vote share had crashed. It would look like foisting a government of losers onto the British public.
    Whereas the Tories would almost certainly have fewer votes than the Lab/Lib coalition and fewer MPs. So who lost?
    I don't rule it out of court. The optics would not be good though.

    And there isn't much love for senior Lib Dems in Labour ranks. Nick Clegg as Deputy Prime Minister to Prime Minister Miliband would cause huge umbrage on the left, but Labour couldn't credibly simultaneously seek a coalition with the Lib Dems and demand Nick Clegg's head, especially not if it were behind in the seat count. Would the Labour party collectively decide that Paris was worth a mass? The Owen Jones op-ed pieces write themselves (come to think of it, a random Owen Jones op-ed generator would explain a lot).

    It would look like a blighted government from the start.
    Nick Clegg wouldn't be dumb enough to take deputy Prime Minister again would he?
    Yes if he wants to take the party back to the days of Jo Grimmond.

    The point of being in politics is to get your policies implemented. The Lib Dems have got many of their policies implemented. They will want to do so again if they can.

    That most of the population do not value the Lib Dems contribution to the government avoiding a financial crisis (despite having a worse deficit than Greece) says more about the population than the Lib Dems.

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: 13% of Britons believe Ed Miliband is up to the job of PM. 34% believe in ghosts.

    We have entered the realms of the fruitcake core support group. Did one ex labour SPAD call folk Window Lickers? Or has my memory gone?
    The much-missed Derek Draper, I believe.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited November 2014

    Ipsos Mori is the new gold standard

    Joe Murphy ‏@JoeMurphyLondon

    POLL: CON 32 (+2); LAB 29 (-4); LIB DEM 9 (+1); UKIP 14 (-2) @IpsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews

    The Lib Dems should be happy with that result - does Ipsos Mori give a break-down for 'others' to show how the greens are fairing in this latest poll?
    Per the article, they're on 7 (+2)
    Ah, sorry, laziness on my part - cheers T_P
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    As the wise Lord Ashcroft keeps on reminding us.

    It's a snapshot, not a prediction

    @DPJHodges: @MrHarryCole It is a snapshot. If Tories have 3% lead now, they'll be ahead by 7%-8% come polling day.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    SNP on 8%.
  • Good old Ed. He may singlehandedly gift the Tories another term. The worst leader of any major political party in this country in my lifetime, which began 50 years ago.

    I would debate that. Brown and Foot were dire.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: It's that time again: "@D_Blanchflower Labour's poll lead has held rock steady during 2014 little reason to believe it will change by GE".
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721

    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: 13% of Britons believe Ed Miliband is up to the job of PM. 34% believe in ghosts.

    Brilliant. More than 10 per cent of the USA population believe they have seen an alien ship in the sky.

    We have entered the realms of the fruitcake core support group. Did one ex labour SPAD call folk Window Lickers? Or has my memory gone?
    I thought it was the % who believed they had been abducted by aliens?
  • GE2015 could end up on: Con 35%, Lab 28%, Lib Dem 10%, UKIP 14%. Well done Ed.
  • Ipsos MORI sum up Ed Miliband's personal polling succinctly:

    "Satisfaction in Ed Miliband as Labour leader is at its lowest ever level, with 21% satisfied in his performance and 65% dissatisfied, giving him a net rating (% satisfied minus % dissatisfied) of -44. This is the lowest level of satisfaction in any Labour leader since Gordon Brown at the height of the economic crisis in July 2008, who received the same score; the last Labour leader to have a lower score was Michael Foot in the days following Margaret Thatcher’s landslide victory in the 1983 general election. His satisfaction rating is now lower than for Nick Clegg for the first time since January 2012; indeed, satisfaction in the Deputy Prime Minister has never been lower than Ed Miliband’s current rating during this Parliament."
  • Con lead zero on all giving a VI

    Ed's rating comfortably lower than Nick Clegg's ratings

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B2PaIZoIYAAbD78.jpg:large
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited November 2014
  • Good old Ed. He may singlehandedly gift the Tories another term. The worst leader of any major political party in this country in my lifetime, which began 50 years ago.

    I would debate that. Brown and Foot were dire.
    IDS?
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Ipsos Mori is the new gold standard

    Joe Murphy ‏@JoeMurphyLondon

    POLL: CON 32 (+2); LAB 29 (-4); LIB DEM 9 (+1); UKIP 14 (-2) @IpsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews

    Probably an outlier. But a GE of Con 34, Lab 27 starts to look feasible. How that plays out in seats IHNFI.
    The waves lap in and out, but watch enough of them and you can tell which way the tide is going. The old lows become normal.

  • chestnut said:

    Electoral Calculus

    CON 294 LAB 292 LIB24

    EICINPM

    On those figures, Chestnut, who do you think would be PM, and what would be the nature of the Government (e.g. Minority Con, Minority Lab, Coalition Con + LD + ? ).

    And what would the situation be if you tweaked the calculator a bit and allocated 10 more seats to SNP and 10 to UKIP?

  • Artist said:

    SNP on 8%.

    That implies something above 60% in Scotland.

    Usual warnings about subsamples apply, but that is remarkable even for a subsample.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    "Dissatisfaction with Mr Miliband among Labour supporters is at 58%, the highest level of dissatisfaction we have ever recorded for any leader among their own supporters in the twenty years we have recorded this data...."
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,960
    edited November 2014
    antifrank said:

    Artist said:

    SNP on 8%.

    That implies something above 60% in Scotland.

    Usual warnings about subsamples apply, but that is remarkable even for a subsample.
    Close, 59%

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/political-monitor-nov-2014-tables.pdf

    A few weeks ago Lord A had the North British subsample with the SNP on 60% plus
  • Ipsos Mori is the new gold standard

    Joe Murphy ‏@JoeMurphyLondon

    POLL: CON 32 (+2); LAB 29 (-4); LIB DEM 9 (+1); UKIP 14 (-2) @IpsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews

    Must be an outlier. As trust-worthy as Sterling's performance against Brent-Crude.... :(
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Balls was absolutely floundering on Sky today.. the man just has nothing sensible to say
  • chestnut said:

    Electoral Calculus

    CON 294 LAB 292 LIB24

    EICINPM

    On those figures, Chestnut, who do you think would be PM, and what would be the nature of the Government (e.g. Minority Con, Minority Lab, Coalition Con + LD + ? ).

    And what would the situation be if you tweaked the calculator a bit and allocated 10 more seats to SNP and 10 to UKIP?

    You would see Nigel Farage demand David Cameron's head as part of the price for UKIP acquiescence to a Conservative government. So I guess we might well see Prime Minister Hammond.
  • RodCrosby said:

    "Dissatisfaction with Mr Miliband among Labour supporters is at 58%, the highest level of dissatisfaction we have ever recorded for any leader among their own supporters in the twenty years we have recorded this data...."

    Can Ed survive? What if a few shadow cabinet members resign if he is asked ( and refuses ) to go? Would the pressure become insurmountable?
  • Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: It's that time again: "@D_Blanchflower Labour's poll lead has held rock steady during 2014 little reason to believe it will change by GE".

    At least Danny Blanchflower was never given an important job involving forecasting. Oh.
  • It's a shame nobody pointed out to Labour that Ed Miliband might be crap.
  • antifrank said:

    chestnut said:

    Electoral Calculus

    CON 294 LAB 292 LIB24

    EICINPM

    On those figures, Chestnut, who do you think would be PM, and what would be the nature of the Government (e.g. Minority Con, Minority Lab, Coalition Con + LD + ? ).

    And what would the situation be if you tweaked the calculator a bit and allocated 10 more seats to SNP and 10 to UKIP?

    You would see Nigel Farage demand David Cameron's head as part of the price for UKIP acquiescence to a Conservative government. So I guess we might well see Prime Minister Hammond.
    Oh kerching
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    of course the delicious aspect of this poll is its release just as the Ed out rebellion fizzles to a damp squib.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Can Ed survive? What if a few shadow cabinet members resign if he is asked ( and refuses ) to go? Would the pressure become insurmountable?

    The argument from some was that Hattie would take over.

    @DPJHodges: Those saying change of leader wouldn't help should reflect on the fact Labour polled better under Harriet Harman than it has today under Ed.
  • Can you explain how I have used my son as a political football?

    You raised his predicament as a symbol of the current government. Both yourself and I have experienced unemployment: You see your experience as a right-of-passage; myself - well - it is a fact of life. Did you mention to your son you were about to unleash - whatever path you expect - his situation onto cynics like me...?
  • IpsosMori does tend to give volatile results (perhaps because of their strict 'certainty to vote' filter), so we shouldn't panic yet; Ed might still be safe.

    All the same, in the past Ipsos Mori has quite often picked up trends earlier than other pollsters, and for that reason what most surprises me about this latest poll is that the UKIP figure is down. I'd have expected it to be up, given recent newsflow.
  • Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: It's that time again: "@D_Blanchflower Labour's poll lead has held rock steady during 2014 little reason to believe it will change by GE".

    What a tool - Blanchflower really is the Edie Izzard of economists...
  • An interesting scenario: Labour has a 'mare in May. They pick up only 6-7 of the most hypermarginals from the Tories. Meanwhile, the Tories drop only 4-5 seats to UKIP but pick up 17 seats: 16 Lib Dem and 1 Labour (Itchen)

    .

    Cloud - cuckoo land.
    I don't think so. It's a perfectly plausible scenario for next May.
    Given you think my forecasts are fantasy, this is a great bet for you.
    That's not a great bet, I think it quite likely that the Tories will get 310 MPs.
    Typo 2015
    Ah, so you don't think my forecast is cloud-cuckoo land then? Funny how views change when money is involved.

    Your offer at evens is not attractive. I can get much better odds elsewhere. Besides which, that eventuality is a Con Min government - propped up up DUP/UKIP for key votes only, and others such as the EU ref - and would be covered by my Con Min bet at 10/1.

    For reference, I've never said a formal Tory/UKIP/DUP coalition would happen.
    You are moving the goalposts. The cloud-cuckoo part wasn't Tories getting 310 MPs it was the rest of your post.
    Not at all. You replied cloud-cuckoo land to the *whole* of my original post, you didn't specify which bits. Your subsequent replies here have demonstrated you didn't understand what I was saying, and that you don't really know what you're talking about.

    I don't mind having a debate, but if you dismiss out-of-hand what I consider to be a carefully thought out political scenario, with analysis behind it, as fantasy (without understanding it, or having any analysis of your own to back it up) expect to be called out on it. I post on here what I consider to be carefully thought through posts. I do expect to be challenged but I don't expect to be patronised.

    Right, now I have some proper work to do.

    Good day.
    Looks like you really believe that stuff, so I apologise for upsetting you.
    However you're not prepared to risk £20 at evens on the central part of your post which was that the Tories, with DUP and UKIP support may well govern after 2015 in order to get a referendum on withdrawing from Europe. That is what I consider to be cloud-cuckoo land and I stick to that.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    antifrank said:

    chestnut said:

    Electoral Calculus

    CON 294 LAB 292 LIB24

    EICINPM

    On those figures, Chestnut, who do you think would be PM, and what would be the nature of the Government (e.g. Minority Con, Minority Lab, Coalition Con + LD + ? ).

    And what would the situation be if you tweaked the calculator a bit and allocated 10 more seats to SNP and 10 to UKIP?

    You would see Nigel Farage demand David Cameron's head as part of the price for UKIP acquiescence to a Conservative government. So I guess we might well see Prime Minister Hammond.
    I don't think Mr Cameron would much mind. He'd probably rather be on the ex-PM circuit than in parliament.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    antifrank said:

    chestnut said:

    Electoral Calculus

    CON 294 LAB 292 LIB24

    EICINPM

    On those figures, Chestnut, who do you think would be PM, and what would be the nature of the Government (e.g. Minority Con, Minority Lab, Coalition Con + LD + ? ).

    And what would the situation be if you tweaked the calculator a bit and allocated 10 more seats to SNP and 10 to UKIP?

    You would see Nigel Farage demand David Cameron's head as part of the price for UKIP acquiescence to a Conservative government. So I guess we might well see Prime Minister Hammond.
    Farage with his 2 seats wont be in a position to demand very much at all.

  • Mr. P, Harman's a poster girl for politically correct nonsense. She might do better against the Conservatives, but she may drive away even more WWC types than Miliband has. Good for UKIP if she leads Labour (I recall her claiming calling a woman in a pub 'love' was sexist. One can only assume she's never braved the wild lands beyond the M25).
  • woody662woody662 Posts: 255

    woody662 said:

    Labour at 29%, Lib Dems at 9%, a bit of swingback to them and Labour are heading towards 25%!!!!

    How bad were the figures for the Conservatives when they were the main opposition 6 months prior to the GE?
    In the 05 Parliament things were about level pegging at this stage I think
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Lucy Powell gets her man another day of headlines. She is some operator...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Star Trek Geek Points

    @DPJHodges: Labour can't win with Ed, and they can't win if they defenestrate Ed. The entire PLP are now trapped within the Kobayashi Maru scenario.
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    Watching GE 64.
    Some things never change.
    Dorset South by election had a Tory split over the Common Market.
    Immigration problematic and Labour equivocating over it.

  • TGOHF said:

    antifrank said:

    chestnut said:

    Electoral Calculus

    CON 294 LAB 292 LIB24

    EICINPM

    On those figures, Chestnut, who do you think would be PM, and what would be the nature of the Government (e.g. Minority Con, Minority Lab, Coalition Con + LD + ? ).

    And what would the situation be if you tweaked the calculator a bit and allocated 10 more seats to SNP and 10 to UKIP?

    You would see Nigel Farage demand David Cameron's head as part of the price for UKIP acquiescence to a Conservative government. So I guess we might well see Prime Minister Hammond.
    Farage with his 2 seats wont be in a position to demand very much at all.

    You can get a little bit of 9/2 against that eventuality, TGOHF.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    On those figures, Chestnut, who do you think would be PM, and what would be the nature of the Government (e.g. Minority Con, Minority Lab, Coalition Con + LD + ? ).

    And what would the situation be if you tweaked the calculator a bit and allocated 10 more seats to SNP and 10 to UKIP?

    I have developed a feeling, which I'm struggling to shake, that the Tories and SNP will do a devo/EV4EL carve up if there is a Tory minority government.


    Using the regional predictor with a national vote of 32-29-9 generates:

    CON 281 LAB 273 LIB 19 NAT 51 OTH 20

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    Those Ipsos Mori numbers are horrendous for Labour. That's two polls this week putting Labour marginally below their 2010 vote share.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    antifrank said:

    chestnut said:

    Electoral Calculus

    CON 294 LAB 292 LIB24

    EICINPM

    On those figures, Chestnut, who do you think would be PM, and what would be the nature of the Government (e.g. Minority Con, Minority Lab, Coalition Con + LD + ? ).

    And what would the situation be if you tweaked the calculator a bit and allocated 10 more seats to SNP and 10 to UKIP?

    You would see Nigel Farage demand David Cameron's head as part of the price for UKIP acquiescence to a Conservative government. So I guess we might well see Prime Minister Hammond.
    Farage with his 2 seats wont be in a position to demand very much at all.

    You can get a little bit of 9/2 against that eventuality, TGOHF.
    I'm beginning to consider the Mark Senior school of thought that selling Kippers at 8 seats is the strategy to take.

  • chestnut said:

    On those figures, Chestnut, who do you think would be PM, and what would be the nature of the Government (e.g. Minority Con, Minority Lab, Coalition Con + LD + ? ).

    And what would the situation be if you tweaked the calculator a bit and allocated 10 more seats to SNP and 10 to UKIP?

    I have developed a feeling, which I'm struggling to shake, that the Tories and SNP will do a devo/EV4EL carve up if there is a Tory minority government.


    Using the regional predictor with a national vote of 32-29-9 generates:

    CON 281 LAB 273 LIB 19 NAT 51 OTH 20

    That seems improbable, Chestnut, but as Sherlock said 'When you have eliminated the impossible, you are left with the answer, however improbable.'

    In other words, you could be right.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    My guess is that this outcome would give something like Con 295, Labour 250, Lib Dem 30, UKIP 5, Northern Ireland 18, Nationalists 52.
  • An interesting scenario: Labour has a 'mare in May. They pick up only 6-7 of the most hypermarginals from the Tories. Meanwhile, the Tories drop only 4-5 seats to UKIP but pick up 17 seats: 16 Lib Dem and 1 Labour (Itchen)

    .

    Cloud - cuckoo land.
    I don't think so. It's a perfectly plausible scenario for next May.
    Given you think my forecasts are fantasy, this is a great bet for you.
    That's not a great bet, I think it quite likely that the Tories will get 310 MPs.
    Typo 2015
    Ah, so you don't think my forecast is cloud-cuckoo land then? Funny how views change when money is involved.

    Your offer at evens is not attractive. I can get much better odds elsewhere. Besides which, that eventuality is a Con Min government - propped up up DUP/UKIP for key votes only, and others such as the EU ref - and would be covered by my Con Min bet at 10/1.

    For reference, I've never said a formal Tory/UKIP/DUP coalition would happen.
    You are moving the goalposts. The cloud-cuckoo part wasn't Tories getting 310 MPs it was the rest of your post.
    Good day.
    Looks like you really believe that stuff, so I apologise for upsetting you.
    However you're not prepared to risk £20 at evens on the central part of your post which was that the Tories, with DUP and UKIP support may well govern after 2015 in order to get a referendum on withdrawing from Europe. That is what I consider to be cloud-cuckoo land and I stick to that.
    Nope. My scenario was that the Tories get 311 seats (but it could be in a range from 310 to 315 seats) and have an alternative option to a Lib Dem coalition: confidence & supply from both the DUP and UKIP. My point is that they would deliver a eurosceptic majority in the House, and the votes would be there to deliver an EU referendum, so there could be pressure on Cameron to take that path instead of a 2nd Lib Dem coalition. If he chooses a solo Minority, the votes are still there for negotiating if he needs them. It is not a prediction, or what I expect to happen. Although i think it plausible that it could.

    Make sense?

    On your second point, I only take value bets. Evens is far too short, and I think you know it.

    Apology accepted.
  • New Thread
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    29 is the score for people who flag up as labour.

    The number who turn out to vote for Ed Miliband's labour party tends to underperform the poll scores.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Most seats at GE, Shadsy goes 10/11 Lab & Con

    Lab maj out to 100/30
This discussion has been closed.