On topic, the main possibilities if there's a hung Parliament are Conservative minority government and Labour minority government. The Lib Dems look set to reject any further coalition with the Conservatives (the rank and file won't stand for it twice) and Labour look set to reject any coalition with the Lib Dems. UKIP won't want to support either main party in a formal coalition and neither will the SNP or the DUP.
For what it's worth, I expect that a minority government would be surprisingly stable, as the example of Scotland in 2007 shows. It's rarely in a majority's interest to see a minority government fall.
A good argument. If Labour were one or two seats behind the Tories would they be able to stand back and let a weakened Cameron continue as PM or would they talk to the LibDems?
The Lib Dems would struggle to help a Labour party into government where Labour had fewer votes and fewer seats and where the Lib Dem seat count had fallen sharply and the Lib Dem vote share had crashed. It would look like foisting a government of losers onto the British public.
Whereas the Tories would almost certainly have fewer votes than the Lab/Lib coalition and fewer MPs. So who lost?
I don't rule it out of court. The optics would not be good though.
And there isn't much love for senior Lib Dems in Labour ranks. Nick Clegg as Deputy Prime Minister to Prime Minister Miliband would cause huge umbrage on the left, but Labour couldn't credibly simultaneously seek a coalition with the Lib Dems and demand Nick Clegg's head, especially not if it were behind in the seat count. Would the Labour party collectively decide that Paris was worth a mass? The Owen Jones op-ed pieces write themselves (come to think of it, a random Owen Jones op-ed generator would explain a lot).
It would look like a blighted government from the start.
Nick Clegg wouldn't be dumb enough to take deputy Prime Minister again would he?
norman smith @BBCNormanS 1m1 minute ago Pay (excluding bonuses) now outstripping inflation say ONS. 1.3% increase in pay. Inflation at 1.2%
Statistically insignificant. The poll the other day showed most people aren't feeling the recovery. The Tories need to accept that and work around it.
Sorry that the last line of spin from Labour has now been sunk. Balls "Recovery not benefiting the ordinary worker"..... Lab economic statements are now all balls.
(Slightly O/T) If we really are going to have 6 months of LibDem bashing from the Peebietories, it does rather raise the question of why Cameron went into coalition with them in the first place. Presumably it was to secure for himself five years in Downing Street and to prevent his activists mounting a putsch against him. One thing's for sure: if he doesn't get an outright majority next May, he'll have damn few friends on here.
If Cameron keeps Ed out of Downing Street, he'll have friends enough on here...
On topic, the main possibilities if there's a hung Parliament are Conservative minority government and Labour minority government. The Lib Dems look set to reject any further coalition with the Conservatives (the rank and file won't stand for it twice) and Labour look set to reject any coalition with the Lib Dems. UKIP won't want to support either main party in a formal coalition and neither will the SNP or the DUP.
For what it's worth, I expect that a minority government would be surprisingly stable, as the example of Scotland in 2007 shows. It's rarely in a majority's interest to see a minority government fall.
A good argument. If Labour were one or two seats behind the Tories would they be able to stand back and let a weakened Cameron continue as PM or would they talk to the LibDems?
The Lib Dems would struggle to help a Labour party into government where Labour had fewer votes and fewer seats and where the Lib Dem seat count had fallen sharply and the Lib Dem vote share had crashed. It would look like foisting a government of losers onto the British public.
Whereas the Tories would almost certainly have fewer votes than the Lab/Lib coalition and fewer MPs. So who lost?
I don't rule it out of court. The optics would not be good though.
And there isn't much love for senior Lib Dems in Labour ranks. Nick Clegg as Deputy Prime Minister to Prime Minister Miliband would cause huge umbrage on the left, but Labour couldn't credibly simultaneously seek a coalition with the Lib Dems and demand Nick Clegg's head, especially not if it were behind in the seat count. Would the Labour party collectively decide that Paris was worth a mass? The Owen Jones op-ed pieces write themselves (come to think of it, a random Owen Jones op-ed generator would explain a lot).
It would look like a blighted government from the start.
Nick Clegg wouldn't be dumb enough to take deputy Prime Minister again would he?
Yes if he wants to take the party back to the days of Jo Grimmond.
Good old Ed. He may singlehandedly gift the Tories another term. The worst leader of any major political party in this country in my lifetime, which began 50 years ago.
Whatever Miliband's mistakes the briefings against him have clearly been disastrous for Labour. What were they thinking? Obvious Johnson wasn't going to come back. It's hard to work out the motive. Is it MPs worried about losing their seats to Ukip who want resources that are going into marginals? There's no point them trying to hold onto what they have. It's advance or nothing.
Good poll to have just after every member of shadow cabinet stood firmly behind Ed and said "he's the man for us!". Do they cling loyally to the sinking ship, reveal their inate duplicity, or embark on a campaign of negative briefing? Choice, choices, choices.
@NickPalmer bound to reveal the truth to employees - so why should politicians be the exception?
One of the things the hoopla over the jobs-led recovery has been the fall in that key capital investment and the consequent fall in productivity as we invest in Roberts rather than robots.
Blimey. Robert's Robots. That takes me back a bit.
POLL: CON 32 (+2); LAB 29 (-4); LIB DEM 9 (+1); UKIP 14 (-2) @IpsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews
There are so many things happening that can't happen.
LibDems down to 9 but Labour only at the 2010 core of 29 Cons on 32 while UKIP at 14
In 2010 / 2011 if you had predicted those possibilities you would have had several people telling you Red LibDems would keep Labour high, High UKIP would deflate Cons.
Where are the parties headed for May 2015?
Cons - it is still possible to see some swingback - 32 to 35 range? Lab - it is hard to see why they should gain 26 - 28 range? LibDems should outperform polls 11 - 13 range? UKIP will be much stickier than in the past 16 - 19 range?
norman smith @BBCNormanS 1m1 minute ago Pay (excluding bonuses) now outstripping inflation say ONS. 1.3% increase in pay. Inflation at 1.2%
Statistically insignificant. The poll the other day showed most people aren't feeling the recovery. The Tories need to accept that and work around it.
Sorry that the last line of spin from Labour has now been sunk. Balls "Recovery not benefiting the ordinary worker"..... Lab economic statements are now all balls.
So Miliband is useless yet at the same time he's managed to convince people they're living standards aren't recovering when they are. That's some effort.
POLL: CON 32 (+2); LAB 29 (-4); LIB DEM 9 (+1); UKIP 14 (-2) @IpsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews
There are so many things happening that can't happen.
LibDems down to 9 but Labour only at the 2010 core of 29 Cons on 32 while UKIP at 14
In 2010 / 2011 if you had predicted those possibilities you would have had several people telling you Red LibDems would keep Labour high, High UKIP would deflate Cons.
Where are the parties headed for May 2015?
Cons - it is still possible to see some swingback - 32 to 35 range? Lab - it is hard to see why they should gain 26 - 28 range? LibDems should outperform polls 11 - 13 range? UKIP will be much stickier than in the past 16 - 19 range?
There was a piece in the Times the other day, which had one Labour MP expressing the view of colleagues, that if we accept the current polling is something like Con 31, Lab 32
There's a distinct possibility the 2010 LD to Lab switchers will either go home or move on to the Greens, and we'll see some Swingback from Con to UKIP switchers (cf Lord A's poll yesterday)
Now, it is possible we will see a GE result of something like Con 35, Lab 27, which is in fact a bigger Con lead than 2010
Good poll to have just after every member of shadow cabinet stood firmly behind Ed and said "he's the man for us!". Do they cling loyally to the sinking ship, reveal their inate duplicity, or embark on a campaign of negative briefing? Choice, choices, choices. *happy sigh*
Yes I am very relieved this poll came out after the endorsements.
On topic, the main possibilities if there's a hung Parliament are Conservative minority government and Labour minority government. The Lib Dems look set to reject any further coalition with the Conservatives (the rank and file won't stand for it twice) and Labour look set to reject any coalition with the Lib Dems. UKIP won't want to support either main party in a formal coalition and neither will the SNP or the DUP.
For what it's worth, I expect that a minority government would be surprisingly stable, as the example of Scotland in 2007 shows. It's rarely in a majority's interest to see a minority government fall.
A good argument. If Labour were one or two seats behind the Tories would they be able to stand back and let a weakened Cameron continue as PM or would they talk to the LibDems?
The Lib Dems would struggle to help a Labour party into government where Labour had fewer votes and fewer seats and where the Lib Dem seat count had fallen sharply and the Lib Dem vote share had crashed. It would look like foisting a government of losers onto the British public.
Whereas the Tories would almost certainly have fewer votes than the Lab/Lib coalition and fewer MPs. So who lost?
I don't rule it out of court. The optics would not be good though.
And there isn't much love for senior Lib Dems in Labour ranks. Nick Clegg as Deputy Prime Minister to Prime Minister Miliband would cause huge umbrage on the left, but Labour couldn't credibly simultaneously seek a coalition with the Lib Dems and demand Nick Clegg's head, especially not if it were behind in the seat count. Would the Labour party collectively decide that Paris was worth a mass? The Owen Jones op-ed pieces write themselves (come to think of it, a random Owen Jones op-ed generator would explain a lot).
It would look like a blighted government from the start.
Nick Clegg wouldn't be dumb enough to take deputy Prime Minister again would he?
Yes if he wants to take the party back to the days of Jo Grimmond.
The point of being in politics is to get your policies implemented. The Lib Dems have got many of their policies implemented. They will want to do so again if they can.
That most of the population do not value the Lib Dems contribution to the government avoiding a financial crisis (despite having a worse deficit than Greece) says more about the population than the Lib Dems.
Good old Ed. He may singlehandedly gift the Tories another term. The worst leader of any major political party in this country in my lifetime, which began 50 years ago.
Ipsos MORI sum up Ed Miliband's personal polling succinctly:
"Satisfaction in Ed Miliband as Labour leader is at its lowest ever level, with 21% satisfied in his performance and 65% dissatisfied, giving him a net rating (% satisfied minus % dissatisfied) of -44. This is the lowest level of satisfaction in any Labour leader since Gordon Brown at the height of the economic crisis in July 2008, who received the same score; the last Labour leader to have a lower score was Michael Foot in the days following Margaret Thatcher’s landslide victory in the 1983 general election. His satisfaction rating is now lower than for Nick Clegg for the first time since January 2012; indeed, satisfaction in the Deputy Prime Minister has never been lower than Ed Miliband’s current rating during this Parliament."
Good old Ed. He may singlehandedly gift the Tories another term. The worst leader of any major political party in this country in my lifetime, which began 50 years ago.
On those figures, Chestnut, who do you think would be PM, and what would be the nature of the Government (e.g. Minority Con, Minority Lab, Coalition Con + LD + ? ).
And what would the situation be if you tweaked the calculator a bit and allocated 10 more seats to SNP and 10 to UKIP?
"Dissatisfaction with Mr Miliband among Labour supporters is at 58%, the highest level of dissatisfaction we have ever recorded for any leader among their own supporters in the twenty years we have recorded this data...."
On those figures, Chestnut, who do you think would be PM, and what would be the nature of the Government (e.g. Minority Con, Minority Lab, Coalition Con + LD + ? ).
And what would the situation be if you tweaked the calculator a bit and allocated 10 more seats to SNP and 10 to UKIP?
You would see Nigel Farage demand David Cameron's head as part of the price for UKIP acquiescence to a Conservative government. So I guess we might well see Prime Minister Hammond.
"Dissatisfaction with Mr Miliband among Labour supporters is at 58%, the highest level of dissatisfaction we have ever recorded for any leader among their own supporters in the twenty years we have recorded this data...."
Can Ed survive? What if a few shadow cabinet members resign if he is asked ( and refuses ) to go? Would the pressure become insurmountable?
On those figures, Chestnut, who do you think would be PM, and what would be the nature of the Government (e.g. Minority Con, Minority Lab, Coalition Con + LD + ? ).
And what would the situation be if you tweaked the calculator a bit and allocated 10 more seats to SNP and 10 to UKIP?
You would see Nigel Farage demand David Cameron's head as part of the price for UKIP acquiescence to a Conservative government. So I guess we might well see Prime Minister Hammond.
Can Ed survive? What if a few shadow cabinet members resign if he is asked ( and refuses ) to go? Would the pressure become insurmountable?
The argument from some was that Hattie would take over.
@DPJHodges: Those saying change of leader wouldn't help should reflect on the fact Labour polled better under Harriet Harman than it has today under Ed.
Can you explain how I have used my son as a political football?
You raised his predicament as a symbol of the current government. Both yourself and I have experienced unemployment: You see your experience as a right-of-passage; myself - well - it is a fact of life. Did you mention to your son you were about to unleash - whatever path you expect - his situation onto cynics like me...?
IpsosMori does tend to give volatile results (perhaps because of their strict 'certainty to vote' filter), so we shouldn't panic yet; Ed might still be safe.
All the same, in the past Ipsos Mori has quite often picked up trends earlier than other pollsters, and for that reason what most surprises me about this latest poll is that the UKIP figure is down. I'd have expected it to be up, given recent newsflow.
An interesting scenario: Labour has a 'mare in May. They pick up only 6-7 of the most hypermarginals from the Tories. Meanwhile, the Tories drop only 4-5 seats to UKIP but pick up 17 seats: 16 Lib Dem and 1 Labour (Itchen)
.
Cloud - cuckoo land.
I don't think so. It's a perfectly plausible scenario for next May.
Given you think my forecasts are fantasy, this is a great bet for you.
That's not a great bet, I think it quite likely that the Tories will get 310 MPs.
Typo 2015
Ah, so you don't think my forecast is cloud-cuckoo land then? Funny how views change when money is involved.
Your offer at evens is not attractive. I can get much better odds elsewhere. Besides which, that eventuality is a Con Min government - propped up up DUP/UKIP for key votes only, and others such as the EU ref - and would be covered by my Con Min bet at 10/1.
For reference, I've never said a formal Tory/UKIP/DUP coalition would happen.
You are moving the goalposts. The cloud-cuckoo part wasn't Tories getting 310 MPs it was the rest of your post.
Not at all. You replied cloud-cuckoo land to the *whole* of my original post, you didn't specify which bits. Your subsequent replies here have demonstrated you didn't understand what I was saying, and that you don't really know what you're talking about.
I don't mind having a debate, but if you dismiss out-of-hand what I consider to be a carefully thought out political scenario, with analysis behind it, as fantasy (without understanding it, or having any analysis of your own to back it up) expect to be called out on it. I post on here what I consider to be carefully thought through posts. I do expect to be challenged but I don't expect to be patronised.
Right, now I have some proper work to do.
Good day.
Looks like you really believe that stuff, so I apologise for upsetting you. However you're not prepared to risk £20 at evens on the central part of your post which was that the Tories, with DUP and UKIP support may well govern after 2015 in order to get a referendum on withdrawing from Europe. That is what I consider to be cloud-cuckoo land and I stick to that.
On those figures, Chestnut, who do you think would be PM, and what would be the nature of the Government (e.g. Minority Con, Minority Lab, Coalition Con + LD + ? ).
And what would the situation be if you tweaked the calculator a bit and allocated 10 more seats to SNP and 10 to UKIP?
You would see Nigel Farage demand David Cameron's head as part of the price for UKIP acquiescence to a Conservative government. So I guess we might well see Prime Minister Hammond.
I don't think Mr Cameron would much mind. He'd probably rather be on the ex-PM circuit than in parliament.
On those figures, Chestnut, who do you think would be PM, and what would be the nature of the Government (e.g. Minority Con, Minority Lab, Coalition Con + LD + ? ).
And what would the situation be if you tweaked the calculator a bit and allocated 10 more seats to SNP and 10 to UKIP?
You would see Nigel Farage demand David Cameron's head as part of the price for UKIP acquiescence to a Conservative government. So I guess we might well see Prime Minister Hammond.
Farage with his 2 seats wont be in a position to demand very much at all.
Mr. P, Harman's a poster girl for politically correct nonsense. She might do better against the Conservatives, but she may drive away even more WWC types than Miliband has. Good for UKIP if she leads Labour (I recall her claiming calling a woman in a pub 'love' was sexist. One can only assume she's never braved the wild lands beyond the M25).
Watching GE 64. Some things never change. Dorset South by election had a Tory split over the Common Market. Immigration problematic and Labour equivocating over it.
On those figures, Chestnut, who do you think would be PM, and what would be the nature of the Government (e.g. Minority Con, Minority Lab, Coalition Con + LD + ? ).
And what would the situation be if you tweaked the calculator a bit and allocated 10 more seats to SNP and 10 to UKIP?
You would see Nigel Farage demand David Cameron's head as part of the price for UKIP acquiescence to a Conservative government. So I guess we might well see Prime Minister Hammond.
Farage with his 2 seats wont be in a position to demand very much at all.
You can get a little bit of 9/2 against that eventuality, TGOHF.
On those figures, Chestnut, who do you think would be PM, and what would be the nature of the Government (e.g. Minority Con, Minority Lab, Coalition Con + LD + ? ).
And what would the situation be if you tweaked the calculator a bit and allocated 10 more seats to SNP and 10 to UKIP?
I have developed a feeling, which I'm struggling to shake, that the Tories and SNP will do a devo/EV4EL carve up if there is a Tory minority government.
Using the regional predictor with a national vote of 32-29-9 generates:
On those figures, Chestnut, who do you think would be PM, and what would be the nature of the Government (e.g. Minority Con, Minority Lab, Coalition Con + LD + ? ).
And what would the situation be if you tweaked the calculator a bit and allocated 10 more seats to SNP and 10 to UKIP?
You would see Nigel Farage demand David Cameron's head as part of the price for UKIP acquiescence to a Conservative government. So I guess we might well see Prime Minister Hammond.
Farage with his 2 seats wont be in a position to demand very much at all.
You can get a little bit of 9/2 against that eventuality, TGOHF.
I'm beginning to consider the Mark Senior school of thought that selling Kippers at 8 seats is the strategy to take.
On those figures, Chestnut, who do you think would be PM, and what would be the nature of the Government (e.g. Minority Con, Minority Lab, Coalition Con + LD + ? ).
And what would the situation be if you tweaked the calculator a bit and allocated 10 more seats to SNP and 10 to UKIP?
I have developed a feeling, which I'm struggling to shake, that the Tories and SNP will do a devo/EV4EL carve up if there is a Tory minority government.
Using the regional predictor with a national vote of 32-29-9 generates:
CON 281 LAB 273 LIB 19 NAT 51 OTH 20
That seems improbable, Chestnut, but as Sherlock said 'When you have eliminated the impossible, you are left with the answer, however improbable.'
An interesting scenario: Labour has a 'mare in May. They pick up only 6-7 of the most hypermarginals from the Tories. Meanwhile, the Tories drop only 4-5 seats to UKIP but pick up 17 seats: 16 Lib Dem and 1 Labour (Itchen)
.
Cloud - cuckoo land.
I don't think so. It's a perfectly plausible scenario for next May.
Given you think my forecasts are fantasy, this is a great bet for you.
That's not a great bet, I think it quite likely that the Tories will get 310 MPs.
Typo 2015
Ah, so you don't think my forecast is cloud-cuckoo land then? Funny how views change when money is involved.
Your offer at evens is not attractive. I can get much better odds elsewhere. Besides which, that eventuality is a Con Min government - propped up up DUP/UKIP for key votes only, and others such as the EU ref - and would be covered by my Con Min bet at 10/1.
For reference, I've never said a formal Tory/UKIP/DUP coalition would happen.
You are moving the goalposts. The cloud-cuckoo part wasn't Tories getting 310 MPs it was the rest of your post.
Good day.
Looks like you really believe that stuff, so I apologise for upsetting you. However you're not prepared to risk £20 at evens on the central part of your post which was that the Tories, with DUP and UKIP support may well govern after 2015 in order to get a referendum on withdrawing from Europe. That is what I consider to be cloud-cuckoo land and I stick to that.
Nope. My scenario was that the Tories get 311 seats (but it could be in a range from 310 to 315 seats) and have an alternative option to a Lib Dem coalition: confidence & supply from both the DUP and UKIP. My point is that they would deliver a eurosceptic majority in the House, and the votes would be there to deliver an EU referendum, so there could be pressure on Cameron to take that path instead of a 2nd Lib Dem coalition. If he chooses a solo Minority, the votes are still there for negotiating if he needs them. It is not a prediction, or what I expect to happen. Although i think it plausible that it could.
Make sense?
On your second point, I only take value bets. Evens is far too short, and I think you know it.
Comments
Joe Murphy @JoeMurphyLondon
POLL: CON 32 (+2); LAB 29 (-4); LIB DEM 9 (+1); UKIP 14 (-2) @IpsosMORI in tonight's @standardnews
Have we had a poll over the last three years with a Tory lead of that size?
The last +3 Cons lead was March 2012.
Ed Balls getting very angry and a bit shouty on Sky about wages .
Seems the speech where REd forgot to talk about the economy and immigration was the turning point?
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/blow-for-ed-miliband-as-poll-reveals-just-13-per-cent-think-he-could-be-pm-9855880.html
What was his degree and what does he want to do?
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/blow-for-ed-miliband-as-poll-reveals-just-13-per-cent-think-he-could-be-pm-9855880.html
*happy sigh*
http://www.cultoftv.co.uk/cultkidstv/robertsrobots.htm
His reply
The [moderated] going to poll lower than Gordon bloody Brown [expletives deleted]
LibDems down to 9 but Labour only at the 2010 core of 29
Cons on 32 while UKIP at 14
In 2010 / 2011 if you had predicted those possibilities you would have had several people telling you Red LibDems would keep Labour high, High UKIP would deflate Cons.
Where are the parties headed for May 2015?
Cons - it is still possible to see some swingback - 32 to 35 range?
Lab - it is hard to see why they should gain 26 - 28 range?
LibDems should outperform polls 11 - 13 range?
UKIP will be much stickier than in the past 16 - 19 range?
Of course, I said much the same after the Ipsos-MORI poll showed Labour being crushed in Scotland.
We have entered the realms of the fruitcake core support group. Did one ex labour SPAD call folk Window Lickers? Or has my memory gone?
There's a distinct possibility the 2010 LD to Lab switchers will either go home or move on to the Greens, and we'll see some Swingback from Con to UKIP switchers (cf Lord A's poll yesterday)
Now, it is possible we will see a GE result of something like Con 35, Lab 27, which is in fact a bigger Con lead than 2010
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3475/Labour-support-lowest-since-before-2010-general-election.aspx
CON 294 LAB 292 LIB24
EICINPM
It's a snapshot, not a prediction
The approval figures would point to an 11 point Tory vote lead and a clear majority, under the L&N model...
Tories 122 seats clear of Labour.
Hahahahahahahaha!
Ahaha. Aha. Ha.
Mwahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!
He wants to be a teacher, so is looking for work for this year until he can do his training.
The point of being in politics is to get your policies implemented. The Lib Dems have got many of their policies implemented. They will want to do so again if they can.
That most of the population do not value the Lib Dems contribution to the government avoiding a financial crisis (despite having a worse deficit than Greece) says more about the population than the Lib Dems.
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3475/Labour-support-lowest-since-before-2010-general-election.aspx
"Satisfaction in Ed Miliband as Labour leader is at its lowest ever level, with 21% satisfied in his performance and 65% dissatisfied, giving him a net rating (% satisfied minus % dissatisfied) of -44. This is the lowest level of satisfaction in any Labour leader since Gordon Brown at the height of the economic crisis in July 2008, who received the same score; the last Labour leader to have a lower score was Michael Foot in the days following Margaret Thatcher’s landslide victory in the 1983 general election. His satisfaction rating is now lower than for Nick Clegg for the first time since January 2012; indeed, satisfaction in the Deputy Prime Minister has never been lower than Ed Miliband’s current rating during this Parliament."
Ed's rating comfortably lower than Nick Clegg's ratings
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B2PaIZoIYAAbD78.jpg:large
p.4
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/political-monitor-nov-2014-tables.pdf
And what would the situation be if you tweaked the calculator a bit and allocated 10 more seats to SNP and 10 to UKIP?
Usual warnings about subsamples apply, but that is remarkable even for a subsample.
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/political-monitor-nov-2014-tables.pdf
A few weeks ago Lord A had the North British subsample with the SNP on 60% plus
@DPJHodges: Those saying change of leader wouldn't help should reflect on the fact Labour polled better under Harriet Harman than it has today under Ed.
All the same, in the past Ipsos Mori has quite often picked up trends earlier than other pollsters, and for that reason what most surprises me about this latest poll is that the UKIP figure is down. I'd have expected it to be up, given recent newsflow.
However you're not prepared to risk £20 at evens on the central part of your post which was that the Tories, with DUP and UKIP support may well govern after 2015 in order to get a referendum on withdrawing from Europe. That is what I consider to be cloud-cuckoo land and I stick to that.
@DPJHodges: Labour can't win with Ed, and they can't win if they defenestrate Ed. The entire PLP are now trapped within the Kobayashi Maru scenario.
Some things never change.
Dorset South by election had a Tory split over the Common Market.
Immigration problematic and Labour equivocating over it.
Using the regional predictor with a national vote of 32-29-9 generates:
CON 281 LAB 273 LIB 19 NAT 51 OTH 20
In other words, you could be right.
Make sense?
On your second point, I only take value bets. Evens is far too short, and I think you know it.
Apology accepted.
The number who turn out to vote for Ed Miliband's labour party tends to underperform the poll scores.
Lab maj out to 100/30