The picture emerging from the inquiry is that Fujitsu knew from the start that its system was unfit for purpose (aka total crap), and did its very best to hide this from the Post Office while employing teams working through the night desperately patching bugs - while the Post Office initially prosecuted subpostmasters believing the assurances from its supplier, but as the true picture began to emerge, doubled down rather than face up to the travesty it has already committed. And as the situation got worse and worse, continued to play double or quits like a desperate gambler who knows they can’t afford the losses already incurred. Until the whole house came tumbling down.
Who is the most culpable, you can decide?
Meanwhile if Sir Wyn wants to cut and paste the above for the opening section of his inquiry report, his cheque should be sent to the usual address.
Why doesn’t the spineless gimp test the will of the people and call a general election .
No one voted for his Rwanda plan so he needs to stfu about the Lords .
It wasn’t in the last Tory manifesto so they are under no requirement to pass his moronic Bill .
Even better - the plan to break international law is *against* the manifesto. The Lords are going to gut the bill and so in a few months time we are back to square one in the Commons.
The enormous overestimate of illegal migration is presumably fed by the government talking about little else.
I don't think it's that. Recent polling showed people think total migration levels are way way lower than they actually are - below 100k per year. The real issue is the enormous UNDERestimate of legal migration.
It's another reason I don't get the sense migration is directly and noticeably affecting people's day to day lives now in the way it did - in certain areas - before the referendum. Otherwise they would be coming up with much higher estimates of legal migration.
Utter shite. People are noticing. And that noticing is about to surge
They're evidently not noticing the actual numbers of legal migration. They think total migration is below 100k
Just because some blithe midwit vineyard-owning lefty twat like you doesn’t care about immigration and doesn’t want his compatriots to care does NOT mean people less rich than you don’t care
They are now beginning to twig. You can sense it. The influx is so vast
The reason there is a delay between reality and political opinion is because Brexit. Voters assumed they’d pulled the lever on mass immigration and stopped it. They forgot that politicians are all venal liars
They are now waking up to this
I am looking at what polling says at the moment. Maybe it will move and we'll be in rivers of blood territory in a year's time but that's not what the surveys are saying now.
What happens when Reform start trumpeting the 1.3 million? This could well sink Rishi.
Precisely
And, when Labour takes over this year, the Tories will shamelessly blame all the migration on Labour
And it will work. Because voters are only just waking up now to the scale of what is happening in Britain and to Britain. We are set for a massive right wards shift on this issue, under PM Starmer. What will he do?!
The Tories are lying bastards but in this instance their utter mendacity will work for them
I see no reason - none at all - why the UK will not follow the rest of the western world towards a hard/far right form of governance
It will be anti migrant, nativist, and belligerent. It will shift money towards defence spending over welfare. It will be tax light as that is the only way to attract capital. It’s coming and it’s not going to be pretty
I’m pretty confident that the Tory opposition to the incoming government isn’t going to get any traction any time soon.
I miss the days when we were assured Sweden didn’t want anything to do with NATO, although they need to come up with better Operation names, it’s no Able Archer or ReForGer.
Nato members will send 90,000 troops to the alliance’s largest military exercise since the Cold War.
Britain is deploying 20,000 soldiers to Operation Steadfast Defender 2024, which starts next week and will continue until the end of May.
Gen Christopher Cavoli, Nato’s most senior commander, said the exercises would demonstrate the alliance’s ability to quickly “reinforce” its territory in the event of an attack.
Exercises will take place in Germany, Poland and the Baltic States in what is widely expected to be a simulation of war with Russia.
Troops from all 31 Nato members and Sweden, a candidate for membership, are taking part.
Was there ever a good alt-hist where NATO were the aggressors? "Red Storm Rising" and "By Dawn's Early Light" both had faked NATO attacks as the initiator, but otherwise it was always the Soviets as bad guys
The Soviet warplans claimed to assume a NATO surprise attack.
Invariably, though, the "Surprise NATO attack" was assumed to have conquered not an inch of Warsaw Pact Territory and destroyed nothing. And the Warsaw pact units were all assumed to be at maximum readiness. And raring to go, on the border....
Ah, nostalgia. Warsaw Pact, Reforger, Fulda Gap, Cheyenne Mountain, rotate your key, jumpers for goalposts...
Operation Jumpers for Goalposts would confuse our dear American friends 😄
The enormous overestimate of illegal migration is presumably fed by the government talking about little else.
I don't think it's that. Recent polling showed people think total migration levels are way way lower than they actually are - below 100k per year. The real issue is the enormous UNDERestimate of legal migration.
It's another reason I don't get the sense migration is directly and noticeably affecting people's day to day lives now in the way it did - in certain areas - before the referendum. Otherwise they would be coming up with much higher estimates of legal migration.
Utter shite. People are noticing. And that noticing is about to surge
They're evidently not noticing the actual numbers of legal migration. They think total migration is below 100k
Just because some blithe midwit vineyard-owning lefty twat like you doesn’t care about immigration and doesn’t want his compatriots to care does NOT mean people less rich than you don’t care
They are now beginning to twig. You can sense it. The influx is so vast
The reason there is a delay between reality and political opinion is because Brexit. Voters assumed they’d pulled the lever on mass immigration and stopped it. They forgot that politicians are all venal liars
They are now waking up to this
I am looking at what polling says at the moment. Maybe it will move and we'll be in rivers of blood territory in a year's time but that's not what the surveys are saying now.
What happens when Reform start trumpeting the 1.3 million? This could well sink Rishi.
Precisely
And, when Labour takes over this year, the Tories will shamelessly blame all the migration on Labour
And it will work. Because voters are only just waking up now to the scale of what is happening in Britain and to Britain. We are set for a massive right wards shift on this issue, under PM Starmer. What will he do?!
The Tories are lying bastards but in this instance their utter mendacity will work for them
I see no reason - none at all - why the UK will not follow the rest of the western world towards a hard/far right form of governance
It will be anti migrant, nativist, and belligerent. It will shift money towards defence spending over welfare. It will be tax light as that is the only way to attract capital. It’s coming and it’s not going to be pretty
Could be like Germany where the government polling is in freefall over migration iirc.
Trying to conflate the Commons refusal to implement the result of the referendum with the Lords thwarting the Rwanda bill is straw clutching from Rishi I think. I don’t remember explicitly voting for it, and neither does anyone else
Coming across like a poor man’s Theresa May
Do not frustrate the will of the people'
In a press conference this morning @RishiSunak urged members of the House of Lords to 'do the right thing' after his Rwanda Bill passed through the Commons itv.com/news/2024-01-1…
If Rishi underperforms vs expectations in the same way as Mrs May did, the Tories could be down to 50 odd seats....
Sunak & Sir Keir are so devoid of any charisma, if there were a charismatic, straight talking, non Tory or Labour politician out the conditions are ripe for a Cleggasm. I’d say Farage but is he too well known?
We're looking at a non-charismatic landslide victory. Nothing like 1997 in that sense.
Who thought Attlee was charismatic, in 1945?
The trouble with - but also the (short-term) advantage for, Starmer, is that it is so easy to project onto him whatever is is that you would like to believe.
The enormous overestimate of illegal migration is presumably fed by the government talking about little else.
I don't think it's that. Recent polling showed people think total migration levels are way way lower than they actually are - below 100k per year. The real issue is the enormous UNDERestimate of legal migration.
It's another reason I don't get the sense migration is directly and noticeably affecting people's day to day lives now in the way it did - in certain areas - before the referendum. Otherwise they would be coming up with much higher estimates of legal migration.
Utter shite. People are noticing. And that noticing is about to surge
They're evidently not noticing the actual numbers of legal migration. They think total migration is below 100k
Just because some blithe midwit vineyard-owning lefty twat like you doesn’t care about immigration and doesn’t want his compatriots to care does NOT mean people less rich than you don’t care
They are now beginning to twig. You can sense it. The influx is so vast
The reason there is a delay between reality and political opinion is because Brexit. Voters assumed they’d pulled the lever on mass immigration and stopped it. They forgot that politicians are all venal liars
They are now waking up to this
I am looking at what polling says at the moment. Maybe it will move and we'll be in rivers of blood territory in a year's time but that's not what the surveys are saying now.
What happens when Reform start trumpeting the 1.3 million? This could well sink Rishi.
Precisely
And, when Labour takes over this year, the Tories will shamelessly blame all the migration on Labour
And it will work. Because voters are only just waking up now to the scale of what is happening in Britain and to Britain. We are set for a massive right wards shift on this issue, under PM Starmer. What will he do?!
The Tories are lying bastards but in this instance their utter mendacity will work for them
I see no reason - none at all - why the UK will not follow the rest of the western world towards a hard/far right form of governance
It will be anti migrant, nativist, and belligerent. It will shift money towards defence spending over welfare. It will be tax light as that is the only way to attract capital. It’s coming and it’s not going to be pretty
Though if we talking mendacity, bear in mind that net numbers will fall a fair bit automatically; student numbers are currently showing a net inflow because there were fewer 2020/1 starters who would otherwise be leaving now.
As for the rest... Of course we could have fewer foreigners coming here to work. I'm a bit busy, so who should we have taking up that slack?
Meanwhile, I'm sure some will continue to froth and frot about a fairly small part of the total.
The enormous overestimate of illegal migration is presumably fed by the government talking about little else.
I don't think it's that. Recent polling showed people think total migration levels are way way lower than they actually are - below 100k per year. The real issue is the enormous UNDERestimate of legal migration.
It's another reason I don't get the sense migration is directly and noticeably affecting people's day to day lives now in the way it did - in certain areas - before the referendum. Otherwise they would be coming up with much higher estimates of legal migration.
Utter shite. People are noticing. And that noticing is about to surge
They're evidently not noticing the actual numbers of legal migration. They think total migration is below 100k
Just because some blithe midwit vineyard-owning lefty twat like you doesn’t care about immigration and doesn’t want his compatriots to care does NOT mean people less rich than you don’t care
They are now beginning to twig. You can sense it. The influx is so vast
The reason there is a delay between reality and political opinion is because Brexit. Voters assumed they’d pulled the lever on mass immigration and stopped it. They forgot that politicians are all venal liars
They are now waking up to this
I am looking at what polling says at the moment. Maybe it will move and we'll be in rivers of blood territory in a year's time but that's not what the surveys are saying now.
What happens when Reform start trumpeting the 1.3 million? This could well sink Rishi.
Precisely
And, when Labour takes over this year, the Tories will shamelessly blame all the migration on Labour
And it will work. Because voters are only just waking up now to the scale of what is happening in Britain and to Britain. We are set for a massive right wards shift on this issue, under PM Starmer. What will he do?!
The Tories are lying bastards but in this instance their utter mendacity will work for them
I see no reason - none at all - why the UK will not follow the rest of the western world towards a hard/far right form of governance
It will be anti migrant, nativist, and belligerent. It will shift money towards defence spending over welfare. It will be tax light as that is the only way to attract capital. It’s coming and it’s not going to be pretty
The next political wave may well be anti migrant and "nativist" as you call it but it will be pro welfare especially for poor locals and pro tax rises especially on foreign tax domiciles and businesses. They will also ask (with some justification) how so much of Britain's infrastructure came to be in foreign ownership and will seek to repatriate it back into British hands.
It will be strongly pro local business and strongly anti big business especially multinationals.
FPT: There is no economic reason why Britain can't import housing, if you want to.
In the US, RVs are often used as homes. For example, I've been told about a friend of a friend, who retired and is doing just that, right now. He and his wife sold their home, bought an RV, and are now touring the US. There are now about a million Americans who have become "digital nomads", so that couple has plenty of company.
About 20 million Americans are now living in trailers. If automobiles and trucks can be shipped across oceans, profitably, so can RVs and trailers.
And then there are the new manufactured homes, such as those built by Boxabl, which might be even cheaper to ship. (The cheapest was selling for about 50 thousand dollars, last I checked.) https://www.boxabl.com/
(A sharp British businessman might start by importing one of these three options, and then use the profits to build a factory in Britain to make more, or at least assemble more, there.)
Immigration is one of a number of politically salient issues but it waxes and wanes in salience, a long term decline in concern about it since the end of empire being overlaid by shorter periods of rapid rise and fall.
The migration observatory is an excellent resource and full of good stats
It's worth reading all of it but the key chart is figure 3. Salience, as we all know, increased through the noughties up to the referendum with a brief pause while everyone did the financial crisis. It then plunged, but has been rising again since 2021.
Whether we're at the cusp of Leon's apocalypse when the streets will run red with the blood of idiotic vineyard owners or in a bit of a bump while Rishi bangs on about boats remains to be seen. My guess is probably somewhere between the two, but we'll see.
Also interesting how much "defence / terrorism" has plummeted in the last year as Ukraine fades from consciousness. Clearly the Gaza upheaval and Houthis shooting across the Red Sea isn't worrying people much here yet.
Too late for the previous thread but this post addresses in considerable detail a rather interesting flaw in the government's approach to Rwanda. https://readmemyrights.blog/2024/01/16/73/
Put shortly (and it is well worth the read) the SC decision was based upon very detailed reports from the UNHCR who have the not inconsiderable advantage of having over 300 staff working in the country. The conclusions that the SC came to in light of this information were: (1) Rwanda has, in fact a very poor record in dealing with refugees. (2) Their Human rights record is abysmal. (3) Their assurances are not worth the paper they are printed on.
The theory of Parliamentary Sovereignty is that Parliament can declare white is black and, in law, it is. But this is really through the looking glass. As the article points out the Evidence produced by the government at the end of the last year really doesn't address the points made by the SC or the conclusions they made. So we are going to have an Act of Parliament stating that Rwanda is a safe country when the overwhelming and largely uncontradicted evidence is that it is not. Bluntly, this makes the PO's assurances that the Horizon computer system was reliable seem both credible and reasonable. And it makes the UK look ridiculous. Which is embarrassing enough but if people end up dying for this nonsense it will be little short of credible.
“The most important thread this year, s1/s2 FCS & confirmation of the @WashburneAlex & @VBruttel hypothesis on six segment assembly of sarscov2 is a damning confirmation of DEFUSE or a DEFUSE-adjacent project as the proximal origins of sarscov2.”
“Game over. The latest revelations provide precise confirmation that all the many suspicious features of sars-cov-2 which imply it was man made were set out in exhaustive detail in the DEFUSE proposal to which Wuhan institute of virology was a partner. twitter.com/vbruttel/statu…”
Surely no longer needed, now that most private hire is via Uber.
(I got into an Uber the other day here in LA, and my app said "Your driver is hearing impaired. If you wish to contact her, please reach out via the app.")
The enormous overestimate of illegal migration is presumably fed by the government talking about little else.
I don't think it's that. Recent polling showed people think total migration levels are way way lower than they actually are - below 100k per year. The real issue is the enormous UNDERestimate of legal migration.
It's another reason I don't get the sense migration is directly and noticeably affecting people's day to day lives now in the way it did - in certain areas - before the referendum. Otherwise they would be coming up with much higher estimates of legal migration.
Utter shite. People are noticing. And that noticing is about to surge
They're evidently not noticing the actual numbers of legal migration. They think total migration is below 100k
Just because some blithe midwit vineyard-owning lefty twat like you doesn’t care about immigration and doesn’t want his compatriots to care does NOT mean people less rich than you don’t care
They are now beginning to twig. You can sense it. The influx is so vast
The reason there is a delay between reality and political opinion is because Brexit. Voters assumed they’d pulled the lever on mass immigration and stopped it. They forgot that politicians are all venal liars
They are now waking up to this
Here is the very basic problem. Millions of people have been whipped to dislike immigrants. And muslims. And lefties. And so on. So migration is now a pretty visceral issue, especially in left behind communities who blame the forrin for all of cuts to services.
But - the Tories have focused obsessively on Stop The Boats. Those are visible. But lets assume that their wildest dreams come true and the boats do stop. Will that make people happy?
No - because they assume that Stop The Boats means less foreigners. And there is a growing tide of legal migration that the Stop The Boats party are letting in (rightly). Rather than Stop The Boats delivering, it will infuriate. Why are there more and more migrants? Didn't we Stop The Boats to get rid of them?
It's noticable that the people who like to bang on about threats to democracy are the most contemptuous of the average person's abilty to known their own mind and understand their own interests. Any opinion they hold contrary to the prevailing orthodoxy can only be the result of nefarious actors whipping them up into a frenzy.
Do Britons believe more migrants come to the UK legally or illegally?
All Britons More come illegally: 45% More come legally: 34%
Is that really surprising?
45% saw the Angles, Saxons and Jutes risking treacherous sea crossings in small, poorly equipped boats, and just wading ashore. And so, naturally, they answer that they came here illegally. Whereas the minority of subscribers to the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle knew that Hengist and Horsa had been invited over by Vortigern, and hence had arrived legally.
Didn't they come over on a valid work permit - but then overstay?
Trying to conflate the Commons refusal to implement the result of the referendum with the Lords thwarting the Rwanda bill is straw clutching from Rishi I think. I don’t remember explicitly voting for it, and neither does anyone else
Coming across like a poor man’s Theresa May
Do not frustrate the will of the people'
In a press conference this morning @RishiSunak urged members of the House of Lords to 'do the right thing' after his Rwanda Bill passed through the Commons itv.com/news/2024-01-1…
If Rishi underperforms vs expectations in the same way as Mrs May did, the Tories could be down to 50 odd seats....
Sunak & Sir Keir are so devoid of any charisma, if there were a charismatic, straight talking, non Tory or Labour politician out the conditions are ripe for a Cleggasm. I’d say Farage but is he too well known?
We're looking at a non-charismatic landslide victory. Nothing like 1997 in that sense.
Who thought Attlee was charismatic, in 1945?
The trouble with - but also the (short-term) advantage for, Starmer, is that it is so easy to project onto him whatever is is that you would like to believe.
FPT: There is no economic reason why Britain can't import housing, if you want to.
In the US, RVs are often used as homes. For example, I've been told about a friend of a friend, who retired and is doing just that, right now. He and his wife sold their home, bought an RV, and are now touring the US. There are now about a million Americans who have become "digital nomads", so that couple has plenty of company.
About 20 million Americans are now living in trailers. If automobiles and trucks can be shipped across oceans, profitably, so can RVs and trailers.
And then there are the new manufactured homes, such as those built by Boxabl, which might be even cheaper to ship. (The cheapest was selling for about 50 thousand dollars, last I checked.) https://www.boxabl.com/
(A sharp British businessman might start by importing one of these three options, and then use the profits to build a factory in Britain to make more, or at least assemble more, there.)
Trying to conflate the Commons refusal to implement the result of the referendum with the Lords thwarting the Rwanda bill is straw clutching from Rishi I think. I don’t remember explicitly voting for it, and neither does anyone else
Coming across like a poor man’s Theresa May
Do not frustrate the will of the people'
In a press conference this morning @RishiSunak urged members of the House of Lords to 'do the right thing' after his Rwanda Bill passed through the Commons itv.com/news/2024-01-1…
If Rishi underperforms vs expectations in the same way as Mrs May did, the Tories could be down to 50 odd seats....
Sunak & Sir Keir are so devoid of any personality, if there were a charismatic, straight talking, non Tory or Labour politician out there, the conditions are ripe for a Cleggasm. I’d say Farage but is he too well known?
No.
If he gets himself on to the TV debates, and renames Reform 'Nigel Farage's Reform Party', they stand to do very well. They should do the renaming thing now and see it it affects the polls actually.
Surely no longer needed, now that most private hire is via Uber.
(I got into an Uber the other day here in LA, and my app said "Your driver is hearing impaired. If you wish to contact her, please reach out via the app.")
Who wants a lecture from an Albanian on how the country is going to the dogs anyway?
If Reform start polling close to the Tories and Farage gets on board, the election could end up with similar dynamics to 2017 but with Keir Starmer in the role of Theresa May and Nigel Farage in the role of Jeremy Corbyn.
Remember that “the science” not only told you that it “surely came from the wet market” but they explicitly told you that any other idea - like, say, this new creepy bat virus came from the official “creepy bat virus lab 20 feet away” was nonsense, and more than that: a “racist conspiracy theory”
So successfully did “the science” do this, they managed to persuade Twitter and Facebook to take down, for a year, any comment that even suggested the bat virus might have come from the bat virus lab, not the market which never sold bats
Good afternoon from Gatwick. Sensational business meeting this morning, so well worth the trip. But. Roads were unpleasant for a chunk of the drive to the airport yesterday, and today can best be described as snowmageddon.
I wonder if I will actually make it home tonight? Back to Aberdeen, no problem. Beyond that, not sure...
It could be a bit of a Dyce-y journey.
The Glens will be a bit tricky. Check before you leave Dyce.
I just got the train back into Aberdeen from Dyce. All the trains on the Inverness line are running late and there are a lot of cancellations - amusingly the anouncements say because of 'predicted severe weather' rather than because of actual severe weather. There is still about 4 inches of snow on the ground at Dyce and I presume it gets worse as you move out of the immediate environs of Aberdeen.
I willl be spending the weekend waiting on choppers in Aberdeen. I was supposed to fly up to the Shetlands tomorrow and then on from there ouit into the Atlantic for 3 weeks on the Ocean GreatWhite - the largest semi-submersible drilling rig in the world. Unfortunately (particularly for my back to back) the weather has been so bad that no choppers have made it to the rig this week. Lots of people who already spent Christmas and New Year offshore now not able to get home.
Predictions are 70 - 80 mile an hour winds over the next week so not sure I will be going anywhere for a while.
I'm due to land just after 9pm. Main roads are ok around Aberdeen. Its north of Ellon where it gets exciting. An awful lot of places where the snow is being blown off the fields onto the road. But all my routes home are plowed and gritted, and they are out again now to do them all again.
We will see! Otherwise I will be in an airport hotel...
A lot of the airport hotels are full of rig workers waiting to get offshore. It is better in town.
The enormous overestimate of illegal migration is presumably fed by the government talking about little else.
I don't think it's that. Recent polling showed people think total migration levels are way way lower than they actually are - below 100k per year. The real issue is the enormous UNDERestimate of legal migration.
It's another reason I don't get the sense migration is directly and noticeably affecting people's day to day lives now in the way it did - in certain areas - before the referendum. Otherwise they would be coming up with much higher estimates of legal migration.
Utter shite. People are noticing. And that noticing is about to surge
They're evidently not noticing the actual numbers of legal migration. They think total migration is below 100k
Just because some blithe midwit vineyard-owning lefty twat like you doesn’t care about immigration and doesn’t want his compatriots to care does NOT mean people less rich than you don’t care
They are now beginning to twig. You can sense it. The influx is so vast
The reason there is a delay between reality and political opinion is because Brexit. Voters assumed they’d pulled the lever on mass immigration and stopped it. They forgot that politicians are all venal liars
They are now waking up to this
I am looking at what polling says at the moment. Maybe it will move and we'll be in rivers of blood territory in a year's time but that's not what the surveys are saying now.
What happens when Reform start trumpeting the 1.3 million? This could well sink Rishi.
Precisely
And, when Labour takes over this year, the Tories will shamelessly blame all the migration on Labour
And it will work. Because voters are only just waking up now to the scale of what is happening in Britain and to Britain. We are set for a massive right wards shift on this issue, under PM Starmer. What will he do?!
The Tories are lying bastards but in this instance their utter mendacity will work for them
I see no reason - none at all - why the UK will not follow the rest of the western world towards a hard/far right form of governance
It will be anti migrant, nativist, and belligerent. It will shift money towards defence spending over welfare. It will be tax light as that is the only way to attract capital. It’s coming and it’s not going to be pretty
The next political wave may well be anti migrant and "nativist" as you call it but it will be pro welfare especially for poor locals and pro tax rises especially on foreign tax domiciles and businesses. They will also ask (with some justification) how so much of Britain's infrastructure came to be in foreign ownership and will seek to repatriate it back into British hands.
It will be strongly pro local business and strongly anti big business especially multinationals.
Biden of course conveniently won SC in 2020 but lost NH in the primaries.
Haley really has to run Trump close in NH having come third in Iowa to have a chance, it is a state which is more moderate than the US average, with an electorate more educated and wealthier too than the US overall. It is also full of Independents
The enormous overestimate of illegal migration is presumably fed by the government talking about little else.
I don't think it's that. Recent polling showed people think total migration levels are way way lower than they actually are - below 100k per year. The real issue is the enormous UNDERestimate of legal migration.
It's another reason I don't get the sense migration is directly and noticeably affecting people's day to day lives now in the way it did - in certain areas - before the referendum. Otherwise they would be coming up with much higher estimates of legal migration.
Utter shite. People are noticing. And that noticing is about to surge
They're evidently not noticing the actual numbers of legal migration. They think total migration is below 100k
Just because some blithe midwit vineyard-owning lefty twat like you doesn’t care about immigration and doesn’t want his compatriots to care does NOT mean people less rich than you don’t care
They are now beginning to twig. You can sense it. The influx is so vast
The reason there is a delay between reality and political opinion is because Brexit. Voters assumed they’d pulled the lever on mass immigration and stopped it. They forgot that politicians are all venal liars
They are now waking up to this
Here is the very basic problem. Millions of people have been whipped to dislike immigrants. And muslims. And lefties. And so on. So migration is now a pretty visceral issue, especially in left behind communities who blame the forrin for all of cuts to services.
But - the Tories have focused obsessively on Stop The Boats. Those are visible. But lets assume that their wildest dreams come true and the boats do stop. Will that make people happy?
No - because they assume that Stop The Boats means less foreigners. And there is a growing tide of legal migration that the Stop The Boats party are letting in (rightly). Rather than Stop The Boats delivering, it will infuriate. Why are there more and more migrants? Didn't we Stop The Boats to get rid of them?
It's noticable that the people who like to bang on about threats to democracy are the most contemptuous of the average person's abilty to known their own mind and understand their own interests. Any opinion they hold contrary to the prevailing orthodoxy can only be the result of nefarious actors whipping them up into a frenzy.
See earlier poll about people banging on about immigrants. They are woefully misinformed. Not accidentally but deliberately by design by politicians and media. Not sure why that is controversial on a political betting site. Just basic anaylsis.
FPT: There is no economic reason why Britain can't import housing, if you want to.
In the US, RVs are often used as homes. For example, I've been told about a friend of a friend, who retired and is doing just that, right now. He and his wife sold their home, bought an RV, and are now touring the US. There are now about a million Americans who have become "digital nomads", so that couple has plenty of company.
About 20 million Americans are now living in trailers. If automobiles and trucks can be shipped across oceans, profitably, so can RVs and trailers.
And then there are the new manufactured homes, such as those built by Boxabl, which might be even cheaper to ship. (The cheapest was selling for about 50 thousand dollars, last I checked.) https://www.boxabl.com/
(A sharp British businessman might start by importing one of these three options, and then use the profits to build a factory in Britain to make more, or at least assemble more, there.)
Static caravans are already available here. Sites vary in whether they allow permanent or just holiday residence.
One of my oldest friends was* a farm worker's son brought up in one in the corner of a field, with no heating or plumbing. It was pretty horrible in winter.
If Reform start polling close to the Tories and Farage gets on board, the election could end up with similar dynamics to 2017 but with Keir Starmer in the role of Theresa May and Nigel Farage in the role of Jeremy Corbyn.
Trying to conflate the Commons refusal to implement the result of the referendum with the Lords thwarting the Rwanda bill is straw clutching from Rishi I think. I don’t remember explicitly voting for it, and neither does anyone else
Coming across like a poor man’s Theresa May
Do not frustrate the will of the people'
In a press conference this morning @RishiSunak urged members of the House of Lords to 'do the right thing' after his Rwanda Bill passed through the Commons itv.com/news/2024-01-1…
If Rishi underperforms vs expectations in the same way as Mrs May did, the Tories could be down to 50 odd seats....
Sunak & Sir Keir are so devoid of any personality, if there were a charismatic, straight talking, non Tory or Labour politician out there, the conditions are ripe for a Cleggasm. I’d say Farage but is he too well known?
No.
If he gets himself on to the TV debates, and renames Reform 'Nigel Farage's Reform Party', they stand to do very well. They should do the renaming thing now and see it it affects the polls actually.
The problem though is that the Reform vote is strongest where the Conservative vote is strongest - we saw in the Clacton poll last weekend it would require Farage to be the candidate for Reform to win but without him they are third and while their vote is 18%, Labour's vote was up 15 points so the Conservative vote was peeling off to both Reform and Labour leaving the fifth safest Conservative seat looking like a marginal.
One way to ensure a Labour landslide is to have Reform running at 10-20% across a swathe of Conservative constituencies in the Midlands and Eastern England.
The enormous overestimate of illegal migration is presumably fed by the government talking about little else.
I don't think it's that. Recent polling showed people think total migration levels are way way lower than they actually are - below 100k per year. The real issue is the enormous UNDERestimate of legal migration.
It's another reason I don't get the sense migration is directly and noticeably affecting people's day to day lives now in the way it did - in certain areas - before the referendum. Otherwise they would be coming up with much higher estimates of legal migration.
Utter shite. People are noticing. And that noticing is about to surge
They're evidently not noticing the actual numbers of legal migration. They think total migration is below 100k
Just because some blithe midwit vineyard-owning lefty twat like you doesn’t care about immigration and doesn’t want his compatriots to care does NOT mean people less rich than you don’t care
They are now beginning to twig. You can sense it. The influx is so vast
The reason there is a delay between reality and political opinion is because Brexit. Voters assumed they’d pulled the lever on mass immigration and stopped it. They forgot that politicians are all venal liars
They are now waking up to this
Here is the very basic problem. Millions of people have been whipped to dislike immigrants. And muslims. And lefties. And so on. So migration is now a pretty visceral issue, especially in left behind communities who blame the forrin for all of cuts to services.
But - the Tories have focused obsessively on Stop The Boats. Those are visible. But lets assume that their wildest dreams come true and the boats do stop. Will that make people happy?
No - because they assume that Stop The Boats means less foreigners. And there is a growing tide of legal migration that the Stop The Boats party are letting in (rightly). Rather than Stop The Boats delivering, it will infuriate. Why are there more and more migrants? Didn't we Stop The Boats to get rid of them?
It's noticable that the people who like to bang on about threats to democracy are the most contemptuous of the average person's abilty to known their own mind and understand their own interests. Any opinion they hold contrary to the prevailing orthodoxy can only be the result of nefarious actors whipping them up into a frenzy.
See earlier poll about people banging on about immigrants. They are woefully misinformed. Not accidentally but deliberately by design by politicians and media. Not sure why that is controversial on a political betting site. Just basic anaylsis.
The way you've framed that is an example of what I mean. It's not necessary to pass a test on numbers like that to have a valid political opinion.
If you did a survey among attendees of COP28 about the composition of the atmosphere, how many would give answers in the right ballpark? I would guess shockingly few.
And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
Farage has the most cult-like following.
Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
FPT: There is no economic reason why Britain can't import housing, if you want to.
In the US, RVs are often used as homes. For example, I've been told about a friend of a friend, who retired and is doing just that, right now. He and his wife sold their home, bought an RV, and are now touring the US. There are now about a million Americans who have become "digital nomads", so that couple has plenty of company.
About 20 million Americans are now living in trailers. If automobiles and trucks can be shipped across oceans, profitably, so can RVs and trailers.
And then there are the new manufactured homes, such as those built by Boxabl, which might be even cheaper to ship. (The cheapest was selling for about 50 thousand dollars, last I checked.) https://www.boxabl.com/
(A sharp British businessman might start by importing one of these three options, and then use the profits to build a factory in Britain to make more, or at least assemble more, there.)
There is already a significant static caravan industry. There is a loophole whereby they are exempt from planning and building regs as they are temporary structures. You can buy one for as little as £40k new or second hand for a fraction of that. It is a depreciating asset though so not a good investment compared with constructing a permanent house. Any new entrant needs to get around the regulatory issues which make it advantageous to go down the static caravan route if you want to build and sell a cheap modular house.
If Reform start polling close to the Tories and Farage gets on board, the election could end up with similar dynamics to 2017 but with Keir Starmer in the role of Theresa May and Nigel Farage in the role of Jeremy Corbyn.
I’d absolutely vote for Farage over Starmer
I will not vote for Sunak
Oh dear really !
I thought you were educated so I’m surprised you’ve fallen for his bullshit.
The enormous overestimate of illegal migration is presumably fed by the government talking about little else.
I don't think it's that. Recent polling showed people think total migration levels are way way lower than they actually are - below 100k per year. The real issue is the enormous UNDERestimate of legal migration.
It's another reason I don't get the sense migration is directly and noticeably affecting people's day to day lives now in the way it did - in certain areas - before the referendum. Otherwise they would be coming up with much higher estimates of legal migration.
Utter shite. People are noticing. And that noticing is about to surge
They're evidently not noticing the actual numbers of legal migration. They think total migration is below 100k
Just because some blithe midwit vineyard-owning lefty twat like you doesn’t care about immigration and doesn’t want his compatriots to care does NOT mean people less rich than you don’t care
They are now beginning to twig. You can sense it. The influx is so vast
The reason there is a delay between reality and political opinion is because Brexit. Voters assumed they’d pulled the lever on mass immigration and stopped it. They forgot that politicians are all venal liars
They are now waking up to this
Here is the very basic problem. Millions of people have been whipped to dislike immigrants. And muslims. And lefties. And so on. So migration is now a pretty visceral issue, especially in left behind communities who blame the forrin for all of cuts to services.
But - the Tories have focused obsessively on Stop The Boats. Those are visible. But lets assume that their wildest dreams come true and the boats do stop. Will that make people happy?
No - because they assume that Stop The Boats means less foreigners. And there is a growing tide of legal migration that the Stop The Boats party are letting in (rightly). Rather than Stop The Boats delivering, it will infuriate. Why are there more and more migrants? Didn't we Stop The Boats to get rid of them?
It's noticable that the people who like to bang on about threats to democracy are the most contemptuous of the average person's abilty to known their own mind and understand their own interests. Any opinion they hold contrary to the prevailing orthodoxy can only be the result of nefarious actors whipping them up into a frenzy.
According to Leon the average person is such an imbecilic bigot that a far right government is going to be elected soon.
The enormous overestimate of illegal migration is presumably fed by the government talking about little else.
I don't think it's that. Recent polling showed people think total migration levels are way way lower than they actually are - below 100k per year. The real issue is the enormous UNDERestimate of legal migration.
It's another reason I don't get the sense migration is directly and noticeably affecting people's day to day lives now in the way it did - in certain areas - before the referendum. Otherwise they would be coming up with much higher estimates of legal migration.
Utter shite. People are noticing. And that noticing is about to surge
They're evidently not noticing the actual numbers of legal migration. They think total migration is below 100k
Just because some blithe midwit vineyard-owning lefty twat like you doesn’t care about immigration and doesn’t want his compatriots to care does NOT mean people less rich than you don’t care
They are now beginning to twig. You can sense it. The influx is so vast
The reason there is a delay between reality and political opinion is because Brexit. Voters assumed they’d pulled the lever on mass immigration and stopped it. They forgot that politicians are all venal liars
They are now waking up to this
Here is the very basic problem. Millions of people have been whipped to dislike immigrants. And muslims. And lefties. And so on. So migration is now a pretty visceral issue, especially in left behind communities who blame the forrin for all of cuts to services.
But - the Tories have focused obsessively on Stop The Boats. Those are visible. But lets assume that their wildest dreams come true and the boats do stop. Will that make people happy?
No - because they assume that Stop The Boats means less foreigners. And there is a growing tide of legal migration that the Stop The Boats party are letting in (rightly). Rather than Stop The Boats delivering, it will infuriate. Why are there more and more migrants? Didn't we Stop The Boats to get rid of them?
It's noticable that the people who like to bang on about threats to democracy are the most contemptuous of the average person's abilty to known their own mind and understand their own interests. Any opinion they hold contrary to the prevailing orthodoxy can only be the result of nefarious actors whipping them up into a frenzy.
No no, this is just adding. The opinion that the “average person” holds is incorrect. Wrong. In error. It isn’t up for debate, it’s just adding.
So we get to why their opinion is wrong? It’s because someone has lied to them.
I have no problem with people holding ideas and views that are opposite to my own. This is a democracy. But how can we have a genuine debate and make real world decisions when voters are lied to and made to believe the opposite of what reality is?
And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
Farage has the most cult-like following.
Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP parliamentary candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
It’s different this time, with the genuine possibility that the Tories might absolutely implode to sub-100 seats
Britain is not suddenly a pro-Labour, pro-Starmer country. It is a country desperate for an alternative to the pathetic rabble of shysters that is the Tory government
Farage would tempt a lot of people. Me included. I don’t think he is a particularly nice man and certainly not a great political intellect - but maybe he could shake things up. Change the trajectory of decline
Netanyahu says he opposes Palestinian state in any postwar scenario
Benjamin Netanyahu has said he informed the US that he opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state as part of any postwar scenario.
Israel will only agree to a deal that would see the country gain security control over the entire Gaza Strip, the Israel prime minister said at a news conference on Thursday. He said:
In any future arrangement … Israel needs security control all territory west of the Jordan. This collides with the idea of sovereignty. What can you do?
Netanyahu added that he had “told this to the Americans”, adding:
The prime minister needs to be capable of saying no to our friends.
I miss the days when we were assured Sweden didn’t want anything to do with NATO, although they need to come up with better Operation names, it’s no Able Archer or ReForGer.
Nato members will send 90,000 troops to the alliance’s largest military exercise since the Cold War.
Britain is deploying 20,000 soldiers to Operation Steadfast Defender 2024, which starts next week and will continue until the end of May.
Gen Christopher Cavoli, Nato’s most senior commander, said the exercises would demonstrate the alliance’s ability to quickly “reinforce” its territory in the event of an attack.
Exercises will take place in Germany, Poland and the Baltic States in what is widely expected to be a simulation of war with Russia.
Troops from all 31 Nato members and Sweden, a candidate for membership, are taking part.
'The scheme sets new rules for how imported goods arriving in Britain from abroad are processed – introducing new digital health certificates for the likes of live plant and animal products.
It is due to come in this month but Rural Affairs Secretary Mairi Gougeon (below) said information on how it should be implemented at Scottish ports had not been “forthcoming” from the UK Government, in a letter seen by The National.'
Netanyahu says he opposes Palestinian state in any postwar scenario
Benjamin Netanyahu has said he informed the US that he opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state as part of any postwar scenario.
Israel will only agree to a deal that would see the country gain security control over the entire Gaza Strip, the Israel prime minister said at a news conference on Thursday. He said:
In any future arrangement … Israel needs security control all territory west of the Jordan. This collides with the idea of sovereignty. What can you do?
Netanyahu added that he had “told this to the Americans”, adding:
The prime minister needs to be capable of saying no to our friends.
So he wants to add Gaza and the West Bank to Israel? No chance of any peace deal on that grounds then, even if he defeats Hamas others will then replace them
If Reform start polling close to the Tories and Farage gets on board, the election could end up with similar dynamics to 2017 but with Keir Starmer in the role of Theresa May and Nigel Farage in the role of Jeremy Corbyn.
The enormous overestimate of illegal migration is presumably fed by the government talking about little else.
I don't think it's that. Recent polling showed people think total migration levels are way way lower than they actually are - below 100k per year. The real issue is the enormous UNDERestimate of legal migration.
It's another reason I don't get the sense migration is directly and noticeably affecting people's day to day lives now in the way it did - in certain areas - before the referendum. Otherwise they would be coming up with much higher estimates of legal migration.
Utter shite. People are noticing. And that noticing is about to surge
They're evidently not noticing the actual numbers of legal migration. They think total migration is below 100k
Just because some blithe midwit vineyard-owning lefty twat like you doesn’t care about immigration and doesn’t want his compatriots to care does NOT mean people less rich than you don’t care
They are now beginning to twig. You can sense it. The influx is so vast
The reason there is a delay between reality and political opinion is because Brexit. Voters assumed they’d pulled the lever on mass immigration and stopped it. They forgot that politicians are all venal liars
They are now waking up to this
Here is the very basic problem. Millions of people have been whipped to dislike immigrants. And muslims. And lefties. And so on. So migration is now a pretty visceral issue, especially in left behind communities who blame the forrin for all of cuts to services.
But - the Tories have focused obsessively on Stop The Boats. Those are visible. But lets assume that their wildest dreams come true and the boats do stop. Will that make people happy?
No - because they assume that Stop The Boats means less foreigners. And there is a growing tide of legal migration that the Stop The Boats party are letting in (rightly). Rather than Stop The Boats delivering, it will infuriate. Why are there more and more migrants? Didn't we Stop The Boats to get rid of them?
It's noticable that the people who like to bang on about threats to democracy are the most contemptuous of the average person's abilty to known their own mind and understand their own interests. Any opinion they hold contrary to the prevailing orthodoxy can only be the result of nefarious actors whipping them up into a frenzy.
See earlier poll about people banging on about immigrants. They are woefully misinformed. Not accidentally but deliberately by design by politicians and media. Not sure why that is controversial on a political betting site. Just basic anaylsis.
The way you've framed that is an example of what I mean. It's not necessary to pass a test on numbers like that to have a valid political opinion.
If you did a survey among attendees of COP28 about the composition of the atmosphere, how many would give answers in the right ballpark? I would guess shockingly few.
Please define “valid political opinion.” If someone says “there are 100,000 people coming in legally and I think it’s too high” then that is valid. Based on reality, honestly held. We don’t have that. We have people saying “100,000 illegals are here and I think that’s too high.” That isn’t valid because they people they think are too high don’t actually exist.
And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
Farage has the most cult-like following.
Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.
We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.
Trying to conflate the Commons refusal to implement the result of the referendum with the Lords thwarting the Rwanda bill is straw clutching from Rishi I think. I don’t remember explicitly voting for it, and neither does anyone else
Coming across like a poor man’s Theresa May
Do not frustrate the will of the people'
In a press conference this morning @RishiSunak urged members of the House of Lords to 'do the right thing' after his Rwanda Bill passed through the Commons itv.com/news/2024-01-1…
If Rishi underperforms vs expectations in the same way as Mrs May did, the Tories could be down to 50 odd seats....
Sunak & Sir Keir are so devoid of any charisma, if there were a charismatic, straight talking, non Tory or Labour politician out the conditions are ripe for a Cleggasm. I’d say Farage but is he too well known?
We're looking at a non-charismatic landslide victory. Nothing like 1997 in that sense.
Who thought Attlee was charismatic, in 1945?
The trouble with - but also the (short-term) advantage for, Starmer, is that it is so easy to project onto him whatever is is that you would like to believe.
The test of him will come in government. As for now I'm not sure how he could do much better. Would a charismatic Labour leader be 30 pts ahead? Perhaps but I doubt it.
The enormous overestimate of illegal migration is presumably fed by the government talking about little else.
I don't think it's that. Recent polling showed people think total migration levels are way way lower than they actually are - below 100k per year. The real issue is the enormous UNDERestimate of legal migration.
It's another reason I don't get the sense migration is directly and noticeably affecting people's day to day lives now in the way it did - in certain areas - before the referendum. Otherwise they would be coming up with much higher estimates of legal migration.
Utter shite. People are noticing. And that noticing is about to surge
They're evidently not noticing the actual numbers of legal migration. They think total migration is below 100k
Just because some blithe midwit vineyard-owning lefty twat like you doesn’t care about immigration and doesn’t want his compatriots to care does NOT mean people less rich than you don’t care
They are now beginning to twig. You can sense it. The influx is so vast
The reason there is a delay between reality and political opinion is because Brexit. Voters assumed they’d pulled the lever on mass immigration and stopped it. They forgot that politicians are all venal liars
They are now waking up to this
Here is the very basic problem. Millions of people have been whipped to dislike immigrants. And muslims. And lefties. And so on. So migration is now a pretty visceral issue, especially in left behind communities who blame the forrin for all of cuts to services.
But - the Tories have focused obsessively on Stop The Boats. Those are visible. But lets assume that their wildest dreams come true and the boats do stop. Will that make people happy?
No - because they assume that Stop The Boats means less foreigners. And there is a growing tide of legal migration that the Stop The Boats party are letting in (rightly). Rather than Stop The Boats delivering, it will infuriate. Why are there more and more migrants? Didn't we Stop The Boats to get rid of them?
It's noticable that the people who like to bang on about threats to democracy are the most contemptuous of the average person's abilty to known their own mind and understand their own interests. Any opinion they hold contrary to the prevailing orthodoxy can only be the result of nefarious actors whipping them up into a frenzy.
See earlier poll about people banging on about immigrants. They are woefully misinformed. Not accidentally but deliberately by design by politicians and media. Not sure why that is controversial on a political betting site. Just basic anaylsis.
The way you've framed that is an example of what I mean. It's not necessary to pass a test on numbers like that to have a valid political opinion.
If you did a survey among attendees of COP28 about the composition of the atmosphere, how many would give answers in the right ballpark? I would guess shockingly few.
I wouldn't have a scooby about the composition of the atmosphere so I would listen to the experts if I needed an opinion about it. I wouldnt expect any view I held about it to be of equivalent merit or substance as that as of a climate scientist.
The problem with your suggested approach of all views need to be treated as valid is it simply doesnt work.
If people want to stop migration and think they can do that by stopping the boats it is nonsense because the vast majority of migration has nothing to do with the boats.
Lets imagine the Rwanda policy works magically (it will fail abysmally as normal but lets pretend) and all illegal migration is wiped out. There would still be several hundreds of thousands net migration and the same underlying issues and problems.
What we need to do is have politicians and media be honest about migration and government to build housing and infrastructure to match it.
And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
Farage has the most cult-like following.
Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP parliamentary candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
It’s different this time, with the genuine possibility that the Tories might absolutely implode to sub-100 seats
Britain is not suddenly a pro-Labour, pro-Starmer country. It is a country desperate for an alternative to the pathetic rabble of shysters that is the Tory government
Farage would tempt a lot of people. Me included. I don’t think he is a particularly nice man and certainly not a great political intellect - but maybe he could shake things up. Change the trajectory of decline
I don’t see Starmer doing that
The man is a drunkard pub bore, so I see why you feel some affinity.
He couldn't even manage a party (UKIP had endless fall outs with each other) let alone a programme for government.
If Reform start polling close to the Tories and Farage gets on board, the election could end up with similar dynamics to 2017 but with Keir Starmer in the role of Theresa May and Nigel Farage in the role of Jeremy Corbyn.
I’d absolutely vote for Farage over Starmer
I will not vote for Sunak
Oh dear really !
I thought you were educated so I’m surprised you’ve fallen for his bullshit.
I’d like a bit of…. Hope. Hope that things might really change
I get none of that vibe from Starmer. He is the definition of Carry On As Normal. Ffs he kept his knighthood. Sir Keir royale. He’s another fucking idiot who wont change anything. As he and his friends are doing fine, thanks, they all live in £1m+ north london houses
Farage is a wealthy stockbroker city boy with some ludicrous opinions and even stupider shorts. But he might just change things. He is our Javier Milei
And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
Farage has the most cult-like following.
Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.
We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.
Low twenties with a good geographic split could be interesting. They could wipe out the Tories and complete the Bluekipper takeover.
If Reform start polling close to the Tories and Farage gets on board, the election could end up with similar dynamics to 2017 but with Keir Starmer in the role of Theresa May and Nigel Farage in the role of Jeremy Corbyn.
I’d absolutely vote for Farage over Starmer
I will not vote for Sunak
Oh dear really !
I thought you were educated so I’m surprised you’ve fallen for his bullshit.
I’d like a bit of…. Hope. Hope that things might really change
I get none of that vibe from Starmer. He is the definition of Carry On As Normal. Ffs he kept his knighthood. Sir Keir royale. He’s another fucking idiot who wont change anything. As he and his friends are doing fine, thanks, they all live in £1m+ north london houses
Farage is a wealthy stockbroker city boy with some ludicrous opinions and even stupider shorts. But he might just change things. He is our Javier Milei
I cannot imagine what first attracted you the chap with the well known antisemtic tropes and conspiracy theories.
And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
Farage has the most cult-like following.
Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP parliamentary candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
It’s different this time, with the genuine possibility that the Tories might absolutely implode to sub-100 seats
Britain is not suddenly a pro-Labour, pro-Starmer country. It is a country desperate for an alternative to the pathetic rabble of shysters that is the Tory government
Farage would tempt a lot of people. Me included. I don’t think he is a particularly nice man and certainly not a great political intellect - but maybe he could shake things up. Change the trajectory of decline
I don’t see Starmer doing that
The man is a drunkard pub bore, so I see why you feel some affinity.
He couldn't even manage a party (UKIP had endless fall outs with each other) let alone a programme for government.
On the other hand, Farage is not a tedious sexless autistic provincial quack with no friends, so I can see why he doesn’t appeal to you
The enormous overestimate of illegal migration is presumably fed by the government talking about little else.
I don't think it's that. Recent polling showed people think total migration levels are way way lower than they actually are - below 100k per year. The real issue is the enormous UNDERestimate of legal migration.
It's another reason I don't get the sense migration is directly and noticeably affecting people's day to day lives now in the way it did - in certain areas - before the referendum. Otherwise they would be coming up with much higher estimates of legal migration.
Utter shite. People are noticing. And that noticing is about to surge
They're evidently not noticing the actual numbers of legal migration. They think total migration is below 100k
Just because some blithe midwit vineyard-owning lefty twat like you doesn’t care about immigration and doesn’t want his compatriots to care does NOT mean people less rich than you don’t care
They are now beginning to twig. You can sense it. The influx is so vast
The reason there is a delay between reality and political opinion is because Brexit. Voters assumed they’d pulled the lever on mass immigration and stopped it. They forgot that politicians are all venal liars
They are now waking up to this
Here is the very basic problem. Millions of people have been whipped to dislike immigrants. And muslims. And lefties. And so on. So migration is now a pretty visceral issue, especially in left behind communities who blame the forrin for all of cuts to services.
But - the Tories have focused obsessively on Stop The Boats. Those are visible. But lets assume that their wildest dreams come true and the boats do stop. Will that make people happy?
No - because they assume that Stop The Boats means less foreigners. And there is a growing tide of legal migration that the Stop The Boats party are letting in (rightly). Rather than Stop The Boats delivering, it will infuriate. Why are there more and more migrants? Didn't we Stop The Boats to get rid of them?
It's noticable that the people who like to bang on about threats to democracy are the most contemptuous of the average person's abilty to known their own mind and understand their own interests. Any opinion they hold contrary to the prevailing orthodoxy can only be the result of nefarious actors whipping them up into a frenzy.
See earlier poll about people banging on about immigrants. They are woefully misinformed. Not accidentally but deliberately by design by politicians and media. Not sure why that is controversial on a political betting site. Just basic anaylsis.
The way you've framed that is an example of what I mean. It's not necessary to pass a test on numbers like that to have a valid political opinion.
If you did a survey among attendees of COP28 about the composition of the atmosphere, how many would give answers in the right ballpark? I would guess shockingly few.
I wouldn't have a scooby about the composition of the atmosphere so I would listen to the experts if I needed an opinion about it. I wouldnt expect any view I held about it to be of equivalent merit or substance as that as of a climate scientist.
The problem with your suggested approach of all views need to be treated as valid is it simply doesnt work.
Then perhaps we should scrap universal suffrage and accept that the arguments against it were well founded all along.
The enormous overestimate of illegal migration is presumably fed by the government talking about little else.
I don't think it's that. Recent polling showed people think total migration levels are way way lower than they actually are - below 100k per year. The real issue is the enormous UNDERestimate of legal migration.
It's another reason I don't get the sense migration is directly and noticeably affecting people's day to day lives now in the way it did - in certain areas - before the referendum. Otherwise they would be coming up with much higher estimates of legal migration.
Utter shite. People are noticing. And that noticing is about to surge
They're evidently not noticing the actual numbers of legal migration. They think total migration is below 100k
Just because some blithe midwit vineyard-owning lefty twat like you doesn’t care about immigration and doesn’t want his compatriots to care does NOT mean people less rich than you don’t care
They are now beginning to twig. You can sense it. The influx is so vast
The reason there is a delay between reality and political opinion is because Brexit. Voters assumed they’d pulled the lever on mass immigration and stopped it. They forgot that politicians are all venal liars
They are now waking up to this
Here is the very basic problem. Millions of people have been whipped to dislike immigrants. And muslims. And lefties. And so on. So migration is now a pretty visceral issue, especially in left behind communities who blame the forrin for all of cuts to services.
But - the Tories have focused obsessively on Stop The Boats. Those are visible. But lets assume that their wildest dreams come true and the boats do stop. Will that make people happy?
No - because they assume that Stop The Boats means less foreigners. And there is a growing tide of legal migration that the Stop The Boats party are letting in (rightly). Rather than Stop The Boats delivering, it will infuriate. Why are there more and more migrants? Didn't we Stop The Boats to get rid of them?
It's noticable that the people who like to bang on about threats to democracy are the most contemptuous of the average person's abilty to known their own mind and understand their own interests. Any opinion they hold contrary to the prevailing orthodoxy can only be the result of nefarious actors whipping them up into a frenzy.
See earlier poll about people banging on about immigrants. They are woefully misinformed. Not accidentally but deliberately by design by politicians and media. Not sure why that is controversial on a political betting site. Just basic anaylsis.
The way you've framed that is an example of what I mean. It's not necessary to pass a test on numbers like that to have a valid political opinion.
If you did a survey among attendees of COP28 about the composition of the atmosphere, how many would give answers in the right ballpark? I would guess shockingly few.
I wouldn't have a scooby about the composition of the atmosphere so I would listen to the experts if I needed an opinion about it. I wouldnt expect any view I held about it to be of equivalent merit or substance as that as of a climate scientist.
The problem with your suggested approach of all views need to be treated as valid is it simply doesnt work.
Then perhaps we should scrap universal suffrage and accept that the arguments against it were well founded all along.
It is probably better than the alternative. But of course, we should recognise that it is far from perfect and that when the public are ill informed they are unlikely to make coherent and sensible judgements.
It is the job of politicians to lead and inform, not merely follow opinion polls.
'The scheme sets new rules for how imported goods arriving in Britain from abroad are processed – introducing new digital health certificates for the likes of live plant and animal products.
It is due to come in this month but Rural Affairs Secretary Mairi Gougeon (below) said information on how it should be implemented at Scottish ports had not been “forthcoming” from the UK Government, in a letter seen by The National.'
As we currently understand it, the new regime finally starts at the end of the month after repeated delays. And immediately goes into shadow operation where even if you don’t have the required paperwork they are letting you in anyway for 3 months.
It’s an utter farce again. We demanded sovrinty but we are too shit to implement our own deal. The only saving grace being that not implementing it is better for the country than actually imposing self harm on ourselves as planned.
And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
Farage has the most cult-like following.
Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP parliamentary candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
It’s different this time, with the genuine possibility that the Tories might absolutely implode to sub-100 seats
Britain is not suddenly a pro-Labour, pro-Starmer country. It is a country desperate for an alternative to the pathetic rabble of shysters that is the Tory government
Farage would tempt a lot of people. Me included. I don’t think he is a particularly nice man and certainly not a great political intellect - but maybe he could shake things up. Change the trajectory of decline
I don’t see Starmer doing that
The man is a drunkard pub bore, so I see why you feel some affinity.
He couldn't even manage a party (UKIP had endless fall outs with each other) let alone a programme for government.
On the other hand, Farage is not a tedious sexless autistic provincial quack with no friends, so I can see why he doesn’t appeal to you
Netanyahu says he opposes Palestinian state in any postwar scenario
Benjamin Netanyahu has said he informed the US that he opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state as part of any postwar scenario.
Israel will only agree to a deal that would see the country gain security control over the entire Gaza Strip, the Israel prime minister said at a news conference on Thursday. He said:
In any future arrangement … Israel needs security control all territory west of the Jordan. This collides with the idea of sovereignty. What can you do?
Netanyahu added that he had “told this to the Americans”, adding:
The prime minister needs to be capable of saying no to our friends.
If Reform start polling close to the Tories and Farage gets on board, the election could end up with similar dynamics to 2017 but with Keir Starmer in the role of Theresa May and Nigel Farage in the role of Jeremy Corbyn.
I’d absolutely vote for Farage over Starmer
I will not vote for Sunak
Oh dear really !
I thought you were educated so I’m surprised you’ve fallen for his bullshit.
I’d like a bit of…. Hope. Hope that things might really change
I get none of that vibe from Starmer. He is the definition of Carry On As Normal. Ffs he kept his knighthood. Sir Keir royale. He’s another fucking idiot who wont change anything. As he and his friends are doing fine, thanks, they all live in £1m+ north london houses
Farage is a wealthy stockbroker city boy with some ludicrous opinions and even stupider shorts. But he might just change things. He is our Javier Milei
I cannot imagine what first attracted you the chap with the well known antisemtic tropes and conspiracy theories.
The enormous overestimate of illegal migration is presumably fed by the government talking about little else.
I don't think it's that. Recent polling showed people think total migration levels are way way lower than they actually are - below 100k per year. The real issue is the enormous UNDERestimate of legal migration.
It's another reason I don't get the sense migration is directly and noticeably affecting people's day to day lives now in the way it did - in certain areas - before the referendum. Otherwise they would be coming up with much higher estimates of legal migration.
Utter shite. People are noticing. And that noticing is about to surge
They're evidently not noticing the actual numbers of legal migration. They think total migration is below 100k
Just because some blithe midwit vineyard-owning lefty twat like you doesn’t care about immigration and doesn’t want his compatriots to care does NOT mean people less rich than you don’t care
They are now beginning to twig. You can sense it. The influx is so vast
The reason there is a delay between reality and political opinion is because Brexit. Voters assumed they’d pulled the lever on mass immigration and stopped it. They forgot that politicians are all venal liars
They are now waking up to this
I am looking at what polling says at the moment. Maybe it will move and we'll be in rivers of blood territory in a year's time but that's not what the surveys are saying now.
What happens when Reform start trumpeting the 1.3 million? This could well sink Rishi.
Precisely
And, when Labour takes over this year, the Tories will shamelessly blame all the migration on Labour
And it will work. Because voters are only just waking up now to the scale of what is happening in Britain and to Britain. We are set for a massive right wards shift on this issue, under PM Starmer. What will he do?!
The Tories are lying bastards but in this instance their utter mendacity will work for them
I see no reason - none at all - why the UK will not follow the rest of the western world towards a hard/far right form of governance
It will be anti migrant, nativist, and belligerent. It will shift money towards defence spending over welfare. It will be tax light as that is the only way to attract capital. It’s coming and it’s not going to be pretty
This 'right' agenda is a bit short on detail. And if you think cutting welfare will appeal to its supporters think again. Its ranks depend on pensions, free stuff, subsidised housing, sickness and invalidity benefits, NHS, state provision generally as much as any; (cutting welfare for the nameless others would be popular, but actually hard to do).
What will occur in respect of hard policy and practice and putting belligerent rhetoric aside?
“The most important thread this year, s1/s2 FCS & confirmation of the @WashburneAlex & @VBruttel hypothesis on six segment assembly of sarscov2 is a damning confirmation of DEFUSE or a DEFUSE-adjacent project as the proximal origins of sarscov2.”
“Game over. The latest revelations provide precise confirmation that all the many suspicious features of sars-cov-2 which imply it was man made were set out in exhaustive detail in the DEFUSE proposal to which Wuhan institute of virology was a partner. twitter.com/vbruttel/statu…”
I read this posters like @williamglenn and quietly boggle. The issue isn’t me trying to dismiss legit views of voters. The issue is that when you think most migration is illegal and have been promised it will stop, you aren’t going to be happy when Stop The Boats finally happens and find there are still a hundred thousand more of them arriving every year.
It is basic expectation management. When you lie to people you can’t then sell them reality- they want the lie.
I read this posters like @williamglenn and quietly boggle. The issue isn’t me trying to dismiss legit views of voters. The issue is that when you think most migration is illegal and have been promised it will stop, you aren’t going to be happy when Stop The Boats finally happens and find there are still a hundred thousand more of them arriving every year.
It is basic expectation management. When you lie to people you can’t then sell them reality- they want the lie.
I do agree with you there. The Tories have stuffed themselves completely over this issue and the Rwanda bill won't save them.
If Reform start polling close to the Tories and Farage gets on board, the election could end up with similar dynamics to 2017 but with Keir Starmer in the role of Theresa May and Nigel Farage in the role of Jeremy Corbyn.
I’d absolutely vote for Farage over Starmer
I will not vote for Sunak
Oh dear really !
I thought you were educated so I’m surprised you’ve fallen for his bullshit.
I’d like a bit of…. Hope. Hope that things might really change
I get none of that vibe from Starmer. He is the definition of Carry On As Normal. Ffs he kept his knighthood. Sir Keir royale. He’s another fucking idiot who wont change anything. As he and his friends are doing fine, thanks, they all live in £1m+ north london houses
Farage is a wealthy stockbroker city boy with some ludicrous opinions and even stupider shorts. But he might just change things. He is our Javier Milei
I think Starmer is playing it too safe and seem obsessed with avoiding Tory attacks . He’s going to get attacked anyway .
As for Farage you know my opinions on him. All those politicians who facilitated Brexit should be jailed and sentenced to hard labour.
Netanyahu says he opposes Palestinian state in any postwar scenario
Benjamin Netanyahu has said he informed the US that he opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state as part of any postwar scenario.
Israel will only agree to a deal that would see the country gain security control over the entire Gaza Strip, the Israel prime minister said at a news conference on Thursday. He said:
In any future arrangement … Israel needs security control all territory west of the Jordan. This collides with the idea of sovereignty. What can you do?
Netanyahu added that he had “told this to the Americans”, adding:
The prime minister needs to be capable of saying no to our friends.
If Reform start polling close to the Tories and Farage gets on board, the election could end up with similar dynamics to 2017 but with Keir Starmer in the role of Theresa May and Nigel Farage in the role of Jeremy Corbyn.
I’d absolutely vote for Farage over Starmer
I will not vote for Sunak
Oh dear really !
I thought you were educated so I’m surprised you’ve fallen for his bullshit.
I’d like a bit of…. Hope. Hope that things might really change
I get none of that vibe from Starmer. He is the definition of Carry On As Normal. Ffs he kept his knighthood. Sir Keir royale. He’s another fucking idiot who wont change anything. As he and his friends are doing fine, thanks, they all live in £1m+ north london houses
Farage is a wealthy stockbroker city boy with some ludicrous opinions and even stupider shorts. But he might just change things. He is our Javier Milei
I think Starmer is playing it too safe and seem obsessed with avoiding Tory attacks . He’s going to get attacked anyway .
As for Farage you know my opinions on him. All those politicians who facilitated Brexit should be jailed and sentenced to hard labour.
Fuck it. Shall we just have a civil war and be done with it? In a way I’m totally up for that
And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
Farage has the most cult-like following.
Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.
We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.
It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.
RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.
It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.
Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
It's quite amazing how many scenarios mooted for the next election seem to tally with everyone eventually coming around to the poster's own opinions.
It really is quite hard to make a case for anything other than a Labour landslide on current polling and trends.
Will Starmer disappoint in power? Almost certainly, for such is the nature of the job. Will there be a mass move to bring back the blue meanies who broke everything first? Almost certainly not.
And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
Farage has the most cult-like following.
Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.
We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.
Low twenties with a good geographic split could be interesting. They could wipe out the Tories and complete the Bluekipper takeover.
...a Bluekipper takeover of a wiped out party with no seats.
Meanwhile, the LDs will mop up the orphaned One Nation Tory vote.
I won't bother HYUFD, out of the goodness of my heart. But
'In Scotland, just 33% of people prefer the royal family – the lowest figure out of all the UK nations - according to the pollster's data.'
The monarchy needs to just quietly carry on. In the long run the issue would be: What is the better way that would, with mass support, replace it? There is no candidate.
By comparison, disestablishment of the CoE would be easy. But no-one wanting to be the government will touch it.
No party seeking government will put this in a manifesto. It is worth a couple of million votes lost, and few gained. Those numbers swing elections. So it can't happen, barring a series of black swans.
I won't bother HYUFD, out of the goodness of my heart. But
'In Scotland, just 33% of people prefer the royal family – the lowest figure out of all the UK nations - according to the pollster's data.'
Oh I see you have found the second Republic commissioned poll as they continue their agenda of pushing polls, which include elected head of state rather than republic v monarchy as it polls slightly better.
Republic are doing this of course because they are too cowardly to stand for election on their pro Republic agenda so we must continue to ignore their agenda.
Even then the fact this Republic commissioned Yougov poll finds just 31% of UK voters want an elected head of state is pathetic for them. If Republic cannot even get all the 32% who voted for Corbyn even in 2019 to support them and a comfortable majority of Scots for a republic, who can they get?
If Reform start polling close to the Tories and Farage gets on board, the election could end up with similar dynamics to 2017 but with Keir Starmer in the role of Theresa May and Nigel Farage in the role of Jeremy Corbyn.
I’d absolutely vote for Farage over Starmer
I will not vote for Sunak
Oh dear really !
I thought you were educated so I’m surprised you’ve fallen for his bullshit.
I’d like a bit of…. Hope. Hope that things might really change
I get none of that vibe from Starmer. He is the definition of Carry On As Normal. Ffs he kept his knighthood. Sir Keir royale. He’s another fucking idiot who wont change anything. As he and his friends are doing fine, thanks, they all live in £1m+ north london houses
Farage is a wealthy stockbroker city boy with some ludicrous opinions and even stupider shorts. But he might just change things. He is our Javier Milei
I don't get Farage's appeal at all. He's good at telling you what's wrong but any halfwit can point out the problems. I've never heard him articulate a coherent solution to anything. As I recall, he's an economic Thatcherite so there's nothing in that for most people.
Beyond that, he doesn't seem to like immigrants but I've never heard him offer anything on health, housing, transport or the environment apart from pandering to the angry.
Rather like Sunak, he chases public opinion wherever it takes him and agrees with whatever the angriest and loudest are shouting about. Oddly enough, one of my recollections of Thatcher was she would be calm and clear and happy to tell the public when they were wrong and she was right.
And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
Farage has the most cult-like following.
Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.
We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.
Low twenties with a good geographic split could be interesting. They could wipe out the Tories and complete the Bluekipper takeover.
...a Bluekipper takeover of a wiped out party with no seats.
Meanwhile, the LDs will mop up the orphaned One Nation Tory vote.
Possibly. Not sure. The elimination of the Clarke/Stewart wing of the party hasn't led to any significant change in LD support so far. Maybe the nail in the coffin moves a big lump of them across, or maybe they just disperse into a broad range of votes.
If Reform start polling close to the Tories and Farage gets on board, the election could end up with similar dynamics to 2017 but with Keir Starmer in the role of Theresa May and Nigel Farage in the role of Jeremy Corbyn.
I’d absolutely vote for Farage over Starmer
I will not vote for Sunak
Oh dear really !
I thought you were educated so I’m surprised you’ve fallen for his bullshit.
I’d like a bit of…. Hope. Hope that things might really change
I get none of that vibe from Starmer. He is the definition of Carry On As Normal. Ffs he kept his knighthood. Sir Keir royale. He’s another fucking idiot who wont change anything. As he and his friends are doing fine, thanks, they all live in £1m+ north london houses
Farage is a wealthy stockbroker city boy with some ludicrous opinions and even stupider shorts. But he might just change things. He is our Javier Milei
I think Starmer is playing it too safe and seem obsessed with avoiding Tory attacks . He’s going to get attacked anyway .
As for Farage you know my opinions on him. All those politicians who facilitated Brexit should be jailed and sentenced to hard labour.
Fuck it. Shall we just have a civil war and be done with it? In a way I’m totally up for that
See you on Marston Moor
You’re a strange character ! Who is the real Leon ?
I read this posters like @williamglenn and quietly boggle. The issue isn’t me trying to dismiss legit views of voters. The issue is that when you think most migration is illegal and have been promised it will stop, you aren’t going to be happy when Stop The Boats finally happens and find there are still a hundred thousand more of them arriving every year.
It is basic expectation management. When you lie to people you can’t then sell them reality- they want the lie.
Your problem is that you often don’t write very well and your debating points are all garbled and shapeless
Generally there is a decent idea behind the gibberish, even if wrong, but it is guised by the malformed prosody
FPT: There is no economic reason why Britain can't import housing, if you want to.
In the US, RVs are often used as homes. For example, I've been told about a friend of a friend, who retired and is doing just that, right now. He and his wife sold their home, bought an RV, and are now touring the US. There are now about a million Americans who have become "digital nomads", so that couple has plenty of company.
About 20 million Americans are now living in trailers. If automobiles and trucks can be shipped across oceans, profitably, so can RVs and trailers.
And then there are the new manufactured homes, such as those built by Boxabl, which might be even cheaper to ship. (The cheapest was selling for about 50 thousand dollars, last I checked.) https://www.boxabl.com/
(A sharp British businessman might start by importing one of these three options, and then use the profits to build a factory in Britain to make more, or at least assemble more, there.)
And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
Farage has the most cult-like following.
Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.
We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.
It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.
RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.
It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.
Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
At least 15%. That's about what UKIP got when they won their single seat (Clacton).
If they get up to 20% you are probably looking at about 40 seats. That would also imply a virtual wipeout for the Tories.
Trying to conflate the Commons refusal to implement the result of the referendum with the Lords thwarting the Rwanda bill is straw clutching from Rishi I think. I don’t remember explicitly voting for it, and neither does anyone else
Coming across like a poor man’s Theresa May
Do not frustrate the will of the people'
In a press conference this morning @RishiSunak urged members of the House of Lords to 'do the right thing' after his Rwanda Bill passed through the Commons itv.com/news/2024-01-1…
If Rishi underperforms vs expectations in the same way as Mrs May did, the Tories could be down to 50 odd seats....
Sunak & Sir Keir are so devoid of any charisma, if there were a charismatic, straight talking, non Tory or Labour politician out the conditions are ripe for a Cleggasm. I’d say Farage but is he too well known?
We're looking at a non-charismatic landslide victory. Nothing like 1997 in that sense.
When the voters see Sir Keir in action they’ll surely be put off by what a pillock he is. Saying that, there’s what seems like a nice advert for him on itv tonight at 830
Re our bet, let’s leave it as £100@3/1 as if the email never happened. I’m sorry but I don’t believe your attempt to make it look like it was a misunderstanding, I think you played a snide trick by saying you’d void it and have gone back on your word. If when I mailed you, you’d have insisted on keeping the bet I’d have accepted that, and that’s where we are so it doesn’t matter much.
And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
Farage has the most cult-like following.
Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.
We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.
Low twenties with a good geographic split could be interesting. They could wipe out the Tories and complete the Bluekipper takeover.
...a Bluekipper takeover of a wiped out party with no seats.
Meanwhile, the LDs will mop up the orphaned One Nation Tory vote.
And therein lies the question.
There's almost certainly a decent vote for "You know what, 2010-15 wasn't so terrible. Shame Dave went bad, I liked 2010 Dave." I don't know how usefully large it is, and I'm too close to judge objectively. But it's there.
Are the Lib Dems ruthless and flexible enough to scoop it up? It means Orange Book Plus probably, which won't be without cost. But there's an opportunity there... recast our 2.5 party system as (Socialist+Social Democrat) vs. (Liberal+One Nation) vs. (Conservative Nationalist); FPTP is unforgiving to the smallest party of three.
I'd want decent odds against, but the opportunity is there.
And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
Farage has the most cult-like following.
Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.
We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.
It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.
RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.
It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.
Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
Putting some rough numbers into electoral calculus getting:
Reform 22% = 24 seats with Tories 15% = 35 seats. (LDs official opposition).
And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
Farage has the most cult-like following.
Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP parliamentary candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
It’s different this time, with the genuine possibility that the Tories might absolutely implode to sub-100 seats
Britain is not suddenly a pro-Labour, pro-Starmer country. It is a country desperate for an alternative to the pathetic rabble of shysters that is the Tory government
Farage would tempt a lot of people. Me included. I don’t think he is a particularly nice man and certainly not a great political intellect - but maybe he could shake things up. Change the trajectory of decline
I don’t see Starmer doing that
The man is a drunkard pub bore, so I see why you feel some affinity.
He couldn't even manage a party (UKIP had endless fall outs with each other) let alone a programme for government.
I know of a political leader who was pretty good at parties....
If Reform start polling close to the Tories and Farage gets on board, the election could end up with similar dynamics to 2017 but with Keir Starmer in the role of Theresa May and Nigel Farage in the role of Jeremy Corbyn.
I’d absolutely vote for Farage over Starmer
I will not vote for Sunak
Oh dear really !
I thought you were educated so I’m surprised you’ve fallen for his bullshit.
I’d like a bit of…. Hope. Hope that things might really change
I get none of that vibe from Starmer. He is the definition of Carry On As Normal. Ffs he kept his knighthood. Sir Keir royale. He’s another fucking idiot who wont change anything. As he and his friends are doing fine, thanks, they all live in £1m+ north london houses
Farage is a wealthy stockbroker city boy with some ludicrous opinions and even stupider shorts. But he might just change things. He is our Javier Milei
I don't get Farage's appeal at all. He's good at telling you what's wrong but any halfwit can point out the problems. I've never heard him articulate a coherent solution to anything. As I recall, he's an economic Thatcherite so there's nothing in that for most people.
Beyond that, he doesn't seem to like immigrants but I've never heard him offer anything on health, housing, transport or the environment apart from pandering to the angry.
Rather like Sunak, he chases public opinion wherever it takes him and agrees with whatever the angriest and loudest are shouting about. Oddly enough, one of my recollections of Thatcher was she would be calm and clear and happy to tell the public when they were wrong and she was right.
I agree with much of this. As I say, I certainly don’t see Farage as some intellectual giant. He’s barely a midget
However I do think he has a basic political cunning, some actual political rizz, and he’s a proven winner (Brexit) and he’s willing to tackle issues others won’t, especially culture wars or immigration
That said, I suspect his time is past. He can’t take over the Tory party before the GE and by the next election he’ll be knocking on in years and likely won’t fancy the hassle. Starmer will win, then fuck everything up even more, in a polite way
I will make this prediction. A younger right wing populist will emerge in the coming decade. And this person WILL want power, and will quite likely seize it
Its happening across the West, we are not uniquely immune
And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
Farage has the most cult-like following.
Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP parliamentary candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
It’s different this time, with the genuine possibility that the Tories might absolutely implode to sub-100 seats
Britain is not suddenly a pro-Labour, pro-Starmer country. It is a country desperate for an alternative to the pathetic rabble of shysters that is the Tory government
Farage would tempt a lot of people. Me included. I don’t think he is a particularly nice man and certainly not a great political intellect - but maybe he could shake things up. Change the trajectory of decline
I don’t see Starmer doing that
The man is a drunkard pub bore, so I see why you feel some affinity.
He couldn't even manage a party (UKIP had endless fall outs with each other) let alone a programme for government.
I know of a political leader who was pretty good at parties....
And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
Farage has the most cult-like following.
Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.
We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.
It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.
RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.
It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.
Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
Using EC, with LD on 8 and Green 3, and Con, Lab and Reform tied on 28, they'd win only 78. With Con and Lab tied on 28, Reform 25 and LD 9, Green 3, a mere 16.
I read this posters like @williamglenn and quietly boggle. The issue isn’t me trying to dismiss legit views of voters. The issue is that when you think most migration is illegal and have been promised it will stop, you aren’t going to be happy when Stop The Boats finally happens and find there are still a hundred thousand more of them arriving every year.
It is basic expectation management. When you lie to people you can’t then sell them reality- they want the lie.
Your problem is that you often don’t write very well and your debating points are all garbled and shapeless
Generally there is a decent idea behind the gibberish, even if wrong, but it is guised by the malformed prosody
We are supposed to be doing our posts in blank verse?
And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
Farage has the most cult-like following.
Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.
We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.
Low twenties with a good geographic split could be interesting. They could wipe out the Tories and complete the Bluekipper takeover.
...a Bluekipper takeover of a wiped out party with no seats.
Meanwhile, the LDs will mop up the orphaned One Nation Tory vote.
And therein lies the question.
There's almost certainly a decent vote for "You know what, 2010-15 wasn't so terrible. Shame Dave went bad, I liked 2010 Dave." I don't know how usefully large it is, and I'm too close to judge objectively. But it's there.
Are the Lib Dems ruthless and flexible enough to scoop it up? It means Orange Book Plus probably, which won't be without cost. But there's an opportunity there... recast our 2.5 party system as (Socialist+Social Democrat) vs. (Liberal+One Nation) vs. (Conservative Nationalist); FPTP is unforgiving to the smallest party of three.
I'd want decent odds against, but the opportunity is there.
That is largely want French politics looks like now, ie Melenchon's left block v Macron's liberal centrist block v Le Pen's Nationalist block. Canadian politics too ie the social democrat NDP v Trudeau's centrist Liberals v Polievre's rightwing Conservatives (plus regional nationalists in Quebec like we have in Scotland)
And a graph where the peak positive response is just 12% tells us what, exactly? Except that few of us trust any of them.
Farage has the most cult-like following.
Lots of support but a low ceiling too, which is why no UKIP candidate apart from the Clacton defector ever got elected.
How much is the low ceiling down to the expectations the Tories will poll 2x or more than refuk/ukip so the latter is the wasted vote. If the gap narrows further they have a realistic shot to slingshot past into the low twenties.
Low twenties is not enough, you need low thirties to win a seat, even with split opposition. That's what I mean by low ceiling.
We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.
It's why (thus far) we're not heading for Canada '93. Their Reform had a regional base, which meant they smashed that part of the country and got a decent block of seats. So they were able to take over the "party of the right" mantle from the Progressive Conservatives and, eventually, take the party over.
RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.
It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.
Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
Using EC, with LD on 8 and Green 3, and Con, Lab and Reform tied on 28, they'd win only 78. With Con and Lab tied on 28, Reform 25 and LD 9, Green 3, a mere 16.
If Reform come through to twenties, Cons are polling teens.
Comments
Who is the most culpable, you can decide?
Meanwhile if Sir Wyn wants to cut and paste the above for the opening section of his inquiry report, his cheque should be sent to the usual address.
No one voted for his Rwanda plan so he needs to stfu about the Lords .
It wasn’t in the last Tory manifesto so they are under no requirement to pass his moronic Bill .
The trouble with - but also the (short-term) advantage for, Starmer, is that it is so easy to project onto him whatever is is that you would like to believe.
As for the rest... Of course we could have fewer foreigners coming here to work. I'm a bit busy, so who should we have taking up that slack?
Meanwhile, I'm sure some will continue to froth and frot about a fairly small part of the total.
It will be strongly pro local business and strongly anti big business especially multinationals.
In the US, RVs are often used as homes. For example, I've been told about a friend of a friend, who retired and is doing just that, right now. He and his wife sold their home, bought an RV, and are now touring the US. There are now about a million Americans who have become "digital nomads", so that couple has plenty of company.
About 20 million Americans are now living in trailers. If automobiles and trucks can be shipped across oceans, profitably, so can RVs and trailers.
And then there are the new manufactured homes, such as those built by Boxabl, which might be even cheaper to ship. (The cheapest was selling for about 50 thousand dollars, last I checked.) https://www.boxabl.com/
(A sharp British businessman might start by importing one of these three options, and then use the profits to build a factory in Britain to make more, or at least assemble more, there.)
The migration observatory is an excellent resource and full of good stats
https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/uk-public-opinion-toward-immigration-overall-attitudes-and-level-of-concern/
It's worth reading all of it but the key chart is figure 3. Salience, as we all know, increased through the noughties up to the referendum with a brief pause while everyone did the financial crisis. It then plunged, but has been rising again since 2021.
Whether we're at the cusp of Leon's apocalypse when the streets will run red with the blood of idiotic vineyard owners or in a bit of a bump while Rishi bangs on about boats remains to be seen. My guess is probably somewhere between the two, but we'll see.
Also interesting how much "defence / terrorism" has plummeted in the last year as Ukraine fades from consciousness. Clearly the Gaza upheaval and Houthis shooting across the Red Sea isn't worrying people much here yet.
https://readmemyrights.blog/2024/01/16/73/
Put shortly (and it is well worth the read) the SC decision was based upon very detailed reports from the UNHCR who have the not inconsiderable advantage of having over 300 staff working in the country. The conclusions that the SC came to in light of this information were:
(1) Rwanda has, in fact a very poor record in dealing with refugees.
(2) Their Human rights record is abysmal.
(3) Their assurances are not worth the paper they are printed on.
The theory of Parliamentary Sovereignty is that Parliament can declare white is black and, in law, it is. But this is really through the looking glass. As the article points out the Evidence produced by the government at the end of the last year really doesn't address the points made by the SC or the conclusions they made. So we are going to have an Act of Parliament stating that Rwanda is a safe country when the overwhelming and largely uncontradicted evidence is that it is not. Bluntly, this makes the PO's assurances that the Horizon computer system was reliable seem both credible and reasonable. And it makes the UK look ridiculous. Which is embarrassing enough but if people end up dying for this nonsense it will be little short of credible.
https://x.com/r_h_ebright/status/1747874378170167435?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
“The most important thread this year, s1/s2 FCS & confirmation of the @WashburneAlex & @VBruttel hypothesis on six segment assembly of sarscov2 is a damning confirmation of DEFUSE or a DEFUSE-adjacent project as the proximal origins of sarscov2.”
https://x.com/virologyanon/status/1747837936148910558?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
“Game over. The latest revelations provide precise confirmation that all the many suspicious features of sars-cov-2 which imply it was man made were set out in exhaustive detail in the DEFUSE proposal to which Wuhan institute of virology was a partner. twitter.com/vbruttel/statu…”
https://x.com/mattwridley/status/1747885852905050593?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
(I got into an Uber the other day here in LA, and my app said "Your driver is hearing impaired. If you wish to contact her, please reach out via the app.")
If you can stay awake...
If he gets himself on to the TV debates, and renames Reform 'Nigel Farage's Reform Party', they stand to do very well. They should do the renaming thing now and see it it affects the polls actually.
If Reform start polling close to the Tories and Farage gets on board, the election could end up with similar dynamics to 2017 but with Keir Starmer in the role of Theresa May and Nigel Farage in the role of Jeremy Corbyn.
So successfully did “the science” do this, they managed to persuade Twitter and Facebook to take down, for a year, any comment that even suggested the bat virus might have come from the bat virus lab, not the market which never sold bats
That is what happened
Haley really has to run Trump close in NH having come third in Iowa to have a chance, it is a state which is more moderate than the US average, with an electorate more educated and wealthier too than the US overall. It is also full of Independents
One of my oldest friends was* a farm worker's son brought up in one in the corner of a field, with no heating or plumbing. It was pretty horrible in winter.
*now RIP, lung cancer
I will not vote for Sunak
One way to ensure a Labour landslide is to have Reform running at 10-20% across a swathe of Conservative constituencies in the Midlands and Eastern England.
If you did a survey among attendees of COP28 about the composition of the atmosphere, how many would give answers in the right ballpark? I would guess shockingly few.
I thought you were educated so I’m surprised you’ve fallen for his bullshit.
So we get to why their opinion is wrong? It’s because someone has lied to them.
I have no problem with people holding ideas and views that are opposite to my own. This is a democracy. But how can we have a genuine debate and make real world decisions when voters are lied to and made to believe the opposite of what reality is?
Britain is not suddenly a pro-Labour, pro-Starmer country. It is a country desperate for an alternative to the pathetic rabble of shysters that is the Tory government
Farage would tempt a lot of people. Me included. I don’t think he is a particularly nice man and certainly not a great political intellect - but maybe he could shake things up. Change the trajectory of decline
I don’t see Starmer doing that
Netanyahu says he opposes Palestinian state in any postwar scenario
Benjamin Netanyahu has said he informed the US that he opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state as part of any postwar scenario.
Israel will only agree to a deal that would see the country gain security control over the entire Gaza Strip, the Israel prime minister said at a news conference on Thursday. He said:
In any future arrangement … Israel needs security control all territory west of the Jordan. This collides with the idea of sovereignty. What can you do?
Netanyahu added that he had “told this to the Americans”, adding:
The prime minister needs to be capable of saying no to our friends.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/jan/18/middle-east-crisis-live-updates-latest-news-us-military-strikes-houthi-rebels-yemen-pakistan-attack-iran
Still, you'd have thought with that level of effort and 31 nations involved NATO could put clearly over 100,000 ground troops into it.
That's the level of mass you'd need to stop Russia absolutely.
One for @RochdalePioneers I think.
'The scheme sets new rules for how imported goods arriving in Britain from abroad are processed – introducing new digital health certificates for the likes of live plant and animal products.
It is due to come in this month but Rural Affairs Secretary Mairi Gougeon (below) said information on how it should be implemented at Scottish ports had not been “forthcoming” from the UK Government, in a letter seen by The National.'
A: It meant some arsehole had her pen.
We have a couple of byelections next month. I expect Reform to lose their deposits in both.
The problem with your suggested approach of all views need to be treated as valid is it simply doesnt work.
If people want to stop migration and think they can do that by stopping the boats it is nonsense because the vast majority of migration has nothing to do with the boats.
Lets imagine the Rwanda policy works magically (it will fail abysmally as normal but lets pretend) and all illegal migration is wiped out. There would still be several hundreds of thousands net migration and the same underlying issues and problems.
What we need to do is have politicians and media be honest about migration and government to build housing and infrastructure to match it.
He couldn't even manage a party (UKIP had endless fall outs with each other) let alone a programme for government.
Specially for @TSE
I won't bother HYUFD, out of the goodness of my heart. But
'In Scotland, just 33% of people prefer the royal family – the lowest figure out of all the UK nations - according to the pollster's data.'
I get none of that vibe from Starmer. He is the definition of Carry On As Normal. Ffs he kept his knighthood. Sir Keir royale. He’s another fucking idiot who wont change anything. As he and his friends are doing fine, thanks, they all live in £1m+ north london houses
Farage is a wealthy stockbroker city boy with some ludicrous opinions and even stupider shorts. But he might just change things. He is our Javier Milei
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jun/28/jewish-groups-and-mps-condemn-nigel-farage-for-antisemitic-dog-whistles
It is the job of politicians to lead and inform, not merely follow opinion polls.
It’s an utter farce again. We demanded sovrinty but we are too shit to implement our own deal. The only saving grace being that not implementing it is better for the country than actually imposing self harm on ourselves as planned.
Fetch @Leons "special medicine" please nurse!
Didn't expect him to be quite so blatant as this though.
Hopefully as soon as the war ends (and I note he's prolonging it) this dozy old crook will be tossed in a jail cell where he richly deserves to be.
Like his fellow mad populist crook Trump.
What will occur in respect of hard policy and practice and putting belligerent rhetoric aside?
It is basic expectation management. When you lie to people you can’t then sell them reality- they want the lie.
As for Farage you know my opinions on him. All those politicians who facilitated Brexit should be jailed and sentenced to hard labour.
I don’t think people understand how the Israeli mindset has changed since October 7
They are going to destroy “Palestine” as an idea and, largely, as a demographic and geopolitical fact. And America won’t be able to stop them
It is going to be hellish
See you on Marston Moor
RefUK doesn't really have a similar base- the biggest concentration is along the east coast, but even that is too diffuse to be useful in FPTP. So as things stand, the Reform effect is to gift seats from Conservatives to Labour.
It's also what distinguishes the UK from continental Europe- PR would give much more opportunity for a more forceful right party to build strength.
Anyone know what sort of national poll ratings are needed for RefUK to win a meaningful number of seats?
Will Starmer disappoint in power? Almost certainly, for such is the nature of the job. Will there be a mass move to bring back the blue meanies who broke everything first? Almost certainly not.
Meanwhile, the LDs will mop up the orphaned One Nation Tory vote.
By comparison, disestablishment of the CoE would be easy. But no-one wanting to be the government will touch it.
No party seeking government will put this in a manifesto. It is worth a couple of million votes lost, and few gained. Those numbers swing elections. So it can't happen, barring a series of black swans.
Republic are doing this of course because they are too cowardly to stand for election on their pro Republic agenda so we must continue to ignore their agenda.
Even then the fact this Republic commissioned Yougov poll finds just 31% of UK voters want an elected head of state is pathetic for them. If Republic cannot even get all the 32% who voted for Corbyn even in 2019 to support them and a comfortable majority of Scots for a republic, who can they get?
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/18/areas-of-england-with-poorest-health-have-higher-rates-of-poverty-report-finds
Beyond that, he doesn't seem to like immigrants but I've never heard him offer anything on health, housing, transport or the environment apart from pandering to the angry.
Rather like Sunak, he chases public opinion wherever it takes him and agrees with whatever the angriest and loudest are shouting about. Oddly enough, one of my recollections of Thatcher was she would be calm and clear and happy to tell the public when they were wrong and she was right.
Generally there is a decent idea behind the
gibberish, even if wrong, but it is guised by the malformed prosody
If they get up to 20% you are probably looking at about 40 seats. That would also imply a virtual wipeout for the Tories.
FPTP is wicked.
Re our bet, let’s leave it as £100@3/1 as if the email never happened. I’m sorry but I don’t believe your attempt to make it look like it was a misunderstanding, I think you played a snide trick by saying you’d void it and have gone back on your word. If when I mailed you, you’d have insisted on keeping the bet I’d have accepted that, and that’s where we are so it doesn’t matter much.
There's almost certainly a decent vote for "You know what, 2010-15 wasn't so terrible. Shame Dave went bad, I liked 2010 Dave." I don't know how usefully large it is, and I'm too close to judge objectively. But it's there.
Are the Lib Dems ruthless and flexible enough to scoop it up? It means Orange Book Plus probably, which won't be without cost. But there's an opportunity there... recast our 2.5 party system as (Socialist+Social Democrat) vs. (Liberal+One Nation) vs. (Conservative Nationalist); FPTP is unforgiving to the smallest party of three.
I'd want decent odds against, but the opportunity is there.
Reform 22% = 24 seats with Tories 15% = 35 seats. (LDs official opposition).
Other way around is
Tory 22% = 121 seats Refuk 15% = 0 seats (Tory official opposition).
No idea how much thought has gone into their modelling for such a scenario though, probably little to none.
However I do think he has a basic political cunning, some actual political rizz, and he’s a proven winner (Brexit) and he’s willing to tackle issues others won’t, especially culture wars or immigration
That said, I suspect his time is past. He can’t take over the Tory party before the GE and by the next election he’ll be knocking on in years and likely won’t fancy the hassle. Starmer will win, then fuck everything up even more, in a polite way
I will make this prediction. A younger right wing populist will emerge in the coming decade. And this person WILL want power, and will quite likely seize
it
Its happening across the West, we are not uniquely immune
With Con and Lab tied on 28, Reform 25 and LD 9, Green 3, a mere 16.
Wow.