However hard LAB presses Rishi is the one who’ll decide the date – politicalbetting.com
Rishi’s bottled it.We say bring it on.Britain needs a general election now. Agree? Sign the petition.https://t.co/WVvNN0hmch
Comments
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With the greatest respect, this is nonsense.
It is perfectly appropriate and very effective politics to hound Sunak throughout 2024 with the charge that he is bottling it, and running scared of the electorate.
OGH says, "It is hard to argue that has Sunak bottled it when it is blindingly obvious that his party would face near-certain defeat."
No, Mike. It is all too easy to argue that Sunak has bottled it due to his fear of being judged by the electorate, and it's good politics.4 -
First0
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Tough luck, buster.ClippP said:First
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I agree. It’s probably one of the more obvious attack lines from the “Big Book of Opposition Attack Lines You Just Have To Use.”SirNorfolkPassmore said:With the greatest respect, this is nonsense.
It is perfectly appropriate and very effective politics to hound Sunak throughout 2024 with the charge that he is bottling it, and running scared of the electorate.
OGH says, "It is hard to argue that has Sunak bottled it when it is blindingly obvious that his party would face near-certain defeat."
No, Mike. It is all too easy to argue that Sunak has bottled it due to his fear of being judged by the electorate, and it's good politics.
I also think it’s more nuanced than “Turkey's don’t vote for Christmas.” For example, in deciding your date you gather all sorts of data and do all kinds of modelling - one such model might show the economic mood will look good in the spring, where you can generate a vibe of a corner turned allowing money back into pockets, whilst same model shows later in year during a recession, fear of bankruptcies, negative growth, , emptying order books, everything will feel gloomy like it’s going backwards again. Faced with that modelling politicians would choose to go earlier. Which I think has happened, the election is definitely in May.
The other thing wrong with Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas is Turkeys arn’t thinking about their life after politics. Some in government may already be rich but I bet can’t wait to start earning proper money compared to what they are on now, once put out of this current misery.0 -
I agree with Mike.
Can anyone think of a PM going before he had to when it was virtually certain he'd lose? All the precedent is in the other direction: Brown in 2010, Major in 1997, Callaghan in 1979, Douglas-Home in 1964. So is self-interest: presumably Sunak likes being PM so why cut it short.
And, who knows, Starmer in 2030?2 -
When there is a hard deadline but NO firm date for the next general election, then public responsibility, praise or blame is placed upon the government. Especially by the public.
And most especially when public is indifferent, non-supportive, opposed, unimpressed, depressed, unresponsive, and just plain fed up with the government.
Elder Smithson spakes the truth in parts. Yet even thus, still possible for
In USA, not even Donald Trump believe that Joe Biden is delaying the November election in order to prolong his grasp on power and/or postpone the Verdict of the People.
Yet even given what Mike says, still possible for millions of voters to conclude that Rishi Sunak IS delaying the next general election. Even folks with limited political information/interest mostly know that power to set a date is his as Prime Minister.
So seems to make sense, for Labour to bring it up on regular basis until he does it. For one thing, gives Starmer & Etc. something resembling an issue to talk about, while they're still trying to maintain the cloak of Fabian disengagement as long as desirable, and possible, before then.1 -
The country is fed up.
The current lot have no plan.
It is perfectly obvious to me that we have made up our minds that we need a change of government.
Is stating this self-evident fact somehow impolite?9 -
If the election was remotely winnable, the psychology would be completely different. The precedent is rarely has defeat looked as certain and as brutal as this one from so far out. Don’t underestimate the psychology of prolonging the pain till the inevitable. Each day must be hideous for them, not fun. It might even be on their minds each day looking like losers might shape peoples opinions ahead of their next jobs and careers the longer it goes on.Fishing said:I agree with Mike.
Can anyone think of a PM going before he had to when it was virtually certain he'd lose? All the precedent is in the other direction: Brown in 2010, Major in 1997, Callaghan in 1979, Douglas-Home in 1964.
And, who knows, Starmer in 2030?0 -
Number of cogent points pointed out.MoonRabbit said:
I agree. It’s probably one of the more obvious attack lines from the “Big Book of Opposition Attack Lines You Just Have To Use.”SirNorfolkPassmore said:With the greatest respect, this is nonsense.
It is perfectly appropriate and very effective politics to hound Sunak throughout 2024 with the charge that he is bottling it, and running scared of the electorate.
OGH says, "It is hard to argue that has Sunak bottled it when it is blindingly obvious that his party would face near-certain defeat."
No, Mike. It is all too easy to argue that Sunak has bottled it due to his fear of being judged by the electorate, and it's good politics.
I also think it’s more nuanced than “Turkey's don’t vote for Christmas.” For example, in deciding your date you gather all sorts of data and do all kinds of modelling - one such model might show the economic mood will look good in the spring, where you can generate a vibe of a corner turned allowing money back into pockets, whilst same model shows later in year during a recession, fear of bankruptcies, negative growth, , emptying order books, everything will feel gloomy like it’s going backwards again. Faced with that modelling politicians would choose to go earlier. Which I think has happened, the election is definitely in May.
The other thing wrong with Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas is Turkeys arn’t thinking about their life after politics. Some in government may already be rich but I bet can’t wait to start earning proper money compared to what they are on now, once put out of this current misery.
Is Sunak's relationship with HM Treasury another, and powerful, factor? Provided that it's largely in one direction, anyway . . . leastways from the whomever it is from that quarter whispering into Rishi's shell-like ear.0 -
How's about a bit of classic British Understatement?dixiedean said:The country is fed up.
The current lot have no plan.
It is perfectly obvious to me that we have made up our minds that we need a change of government.
Is stating this self-evident fact somehow impolite?
"The Leader of the Labour Party and His Majesty's Loyal Opposition respectfully advises, that the Prime Minister consider his position. Hopefully sometime before next Christmas."2 -
No, even a lot of Tories accept it's time for a change of government.dixiedean said:The country is fed up.
The current lot have no plan.
It is perfectly obvious to me that we have made up our minds that we need a change of government.
Is stating this self-evident fact somehow impolite?1 -
Off Topic(?) - Rishi Sunak is somewhat in the position of Gerald Ford. But without Jerry's famous charisma.0
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I agree.MoonRabbit said:
If the election was remotely winnable, the psychology would be completely different. The precedent is rarely has defeat looked as certain and as brutal as this one from so far out. Don’t underestimate the psychology of prolonging the pain till the inevitable. Each day must be hideous for them, not fun. It might even be on their minds each day looking like losers might shape peoples opinions ahead of their next jobs and careers the longer it goes on.Fishing said:I agree with Mike.
Can anyone think of a PM going before he had to when it was virtually certain he'd lose? All the precedent is in the other direction: Brown in 2010, Major in 1997, Callaghan in 1979, Douglas-Home in 1964.
And, who knows, Starmer in 2030?
The right thing for Sunak's party is to maximise the number of seats retained. That screams May at 500 decibels.
The right thing for Sunak personally is to hang on, hoping that something happens. He doesn't give a damn if the Labour majority is 200 or 20 - either way, he's finished.
The likelihood is that a November election would be worse than a May one as the "running scared" narrative builds and defeat follows defeat in Wellingborough, the locals, and Blackpool. But both central estimates involve defeat, whereas basic uncertainty means there is at least some tiny chance something will happen on some odd Autumn day to transform the landscape.1 -
He can however walk down an aircraft steps without falling downSeaShantyIrish2 said:Off Topic(?) - Rishi Sunak is somewhat in the position of Gerald Ford. But without Jerry's famous charisma.
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In the 1972 Australian federal election, where governing Liberal Party/County Party Coalition had been in power for 23 years, the campaign slogan of the Australian Labor Party was - "It's Time"Andy_JS said:
No, even a lot of Tories accept it's time for a change of government.dixiedean said:The country is fed up.
The current lot have no plan.
It is perfectly obvious to me that we have made up our minds that we need a change of government.
Is stating this self-evident fact somehow impolite?
To which the Liberals came up with the rejoinder - "Not Yet"
Who do you think won THAT election?2 -
That was part of Gerald Ford's charisma.viewcode said:
He can however walk down an aircraft steps without falling downSeaShantyIrish2 said:Off Topic(?) - Rishi Sunak is somewhat in the position of Gerald Ford. But without Jerry's famous charisma.
What did him in in the end (beyond The Pardon) was saying that Soviets did NOT dominate Poland.
Ironic in that events in following decades showed that Jerry actually DID have a point. Just didn't know how to convey it.2 -
That's the logic that led to Sunak's flirtation with "I am the change candidate."SeaShantyIrish2 said:
In the 1972 Australian federal election, where governing Liberal Party/County Party Coalition had been in power for 23 years, the campaign slogan of the Australian Labor Party was - "It's Time"Andy_JS said:
No, even a lot of Tories accept it's time for a change of government.dixiedean said:The country is fed up.
The current lot have no plan.
It is perfectly obvious to me that we have made up our minds that we need a change of government.
Is stating this self-evident fact somehow impolite?
To which the Liberals came up with the rejoinder - "Not Yet"
Who do you think won THAT election?
Whilst it was widely ridiculed, it's not a terrible approach per se. Sunak's problem is he doesn't know who he is and can't just decide and stick to it anyway. He has to choose which Rishi Sunak he is, otherwise it's all a disaster.3 -
All the examples you have given lost. All bar, realistically, Major had at least some chance of winning by going earlier. We'll never know the counterfactual, of course. But they all definitely waited to the last minute, and all definitely lost.Fishing said:I agree with Mike.
Can anyone think of a PM going before he had to when it was virtually certain he'd lose? All the precedent is in the other direction: Brown in 2010, Major in 1997, Callaghan in 1979, Douglas-Home in 1964. So is self-interest: presumably Sunak likes being PM so why cut it short.
And, who knows, Starmer in 2030?0 -
It's interesting to consider what would have happened with a Ford II 77-81. I have a vague impression of him as a decent man, which may just be me being naive. I really like Jimmy Carter (it's OK: everybody else hates me too) and I think the electorate made the right decision but I'm willing to hear counterargument.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
That was part of Gerald Ford's charisma.viewcode said:
He can however walk down an aircraft steps without falling downSeaShantyIrish2 said:Off Topic(?) - Rishi Sunak is somewhat in the position of Gerald Ford. But without Jerry's famous charisma.
What did him in in the end (beyond The Pardon) was saying that Soviets did NOT dominate Poland.
Ironic in that events in following decades showed that Jerry actually DID have a point. Just didn't know how to convey it.- https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/a-ford-administration-in-1977-81.468681/
- https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/a-second-ford-administration-and-iran.472323/
- https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/foreign-policy-of-a-second-ford-administration-1977-1981.523151/
- https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/president-ford-is-re-elected-in-1976-and-pushes-through-major-energy-policy.549057/
0 - https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/a-ford-administration-in-1977-81.468681/
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But they had an extra year or two in government.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
All the examples you have given lost.Fishing said:I agree with Mike.
Can anyone think of a PM going before he had to when it was virtually certain he'd lose? All the precedent is in the other direction: Brown in 2010, Major in 1997, Callaghan in 1979, Douglas-Home in 1964. So is self-interest: presumably Sunak likes being PM so why cut it short.
And, who knows, Starmer in 2030?
But in this case, the Conservatives are much more like Major in 1996 than Brown in 2007.SirNorfolkPassmore said:All bar, realistically, Major had at least some chance of winning by going earlier. We'll never know the counterfactual, of course. But they all definitely waited to the last minute, and all definitely lost.
From the Conservative point of view, there's no argument at all for going early and every argument for delay.
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The 1970s was just a really difficult time to be in office, and a lot of incumbents lost elections. You can say they deserved it or not depending on your view of the detail. But there weren't a lot of sweeties to hand out, so the usual benefits of being in office weren't all that great to say the least.viewcode said:
It's interesting to consider what would have happened with a Ford II 77-81. I have a vague impression of him as a decent man, which may just be me being naive. I really like Jimmy Carter (it's OK: everybody else hates me too) and I think the electorate made the right decision but I'm willing to hear counterargument.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
That was part of Gerald Ford's charisma.viewcode said:
He can however walk down an aircraft steps without falling downSeaShantyIrish2 said:Off Topic(?) - Rishi Sunak is somewhat in the position of Gerald Ford. But without Jerry's famous charisma.
What did him in in the end (beyond The Pardon) was saying that Soviets did NOT dominate Poland.
Ironic in that events in following decades showed that Jerry actually DID have a point. Just didn't know how to convey it.- https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/a-ford-administration-in-1977-81.468681/
- https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/a-second-ford-administration-and-iran.472323/
- https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/foreign-policy-of-a-second-ford-administration-1977-1981.523151/
- https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/president-ford-is-re-elected-in-1976-and-pushes-through-major-energy-policy.549057/
0 - https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/a-ford-administration-in-1977-81.468681/
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Except that the other lot have no realistic plan at all (or rather they have dozens of plans, which they give no real sign of believing themselves, and which are discarded the moment anyone points out what crap they are).dixiedean said:The country is fed up.
The current lot have no plan.
It is perfectly obvious to me that we have made up our minds that we need a change of government.
Is stating this self-evident fact somehow impolite?
The current problem is not with the government, it's with the whole political and governmental class. In particular they run things as a permanent election campaign, so never do things that are unpopular in the short term which will deliver benefits in the long term. And there's no grounds for thinking that Labour will be any better than the Conservatives on this.3 -
Gerald Ford was a decent guy, mostly, though he was very conservative in a Midwest country club way, and subject to occasional fits of right-wing enthusiasm, for example as congressional leader of the "Impeach Earl Warren" campaign.viewcode said:
It's interesting to consider what would have happened with a Ford II 77-81. I have a vague impression of him as a decent man, which may just be me being naive. I really like Jimmy Carter (it's OK: everybody else hates me too) and I think the electorate made the right decision but I'm willing to hear counterargument.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
That was part of Gerald Ford's charisma.viewcode said:
He can however walk down an aircraft steps without falling downSeaShantyIrish2 said:Off Topic(?) - Rishi Sunak is somewhat in the position of Gerald Ford. But without Jerry's famous charisma.
What did him in in the end (beyond The Pardon) was saying that Soviets did NOT dominate Poland.
Ironic in that events in following decades showed that Jerry actually DID have a point. Just didn't know how to convey it.- https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/a-ford-administration-in-1977-81.468681/
- https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/a-second-ford-administration-and-iran.472323/
- https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/foreign-policy-of-a-second-ford-administration-1977-1981.523151/
- https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/president-ford-is-re-elected-in-1976-and-pushes-through-major-energy-policy.549057/
As longtime US Rep and GOP congressional leader, Ford would almost certainly had better relations with the then-Democratic-controlled Congress than did Jimmy Carter. Who began his term by insulting Speaker Tip O'Neill (presumably to burnish his DC Ousider credentials). Then worsened the relationship. Doubtful Jerry would have done that. Or rather impossible.
However, also think it likely that a 2nd-term President Jerry would have been confronted by the same massive (as per usual) economic challenges as the actual 1-term President Jimmy. AND also by Iranian Revolution and Hostage Crisis. And likely (IMHO) to have about as much success with all of the above.
Thus leaving a less-than-optimum launching pad for Ronald Reagan's 1980 campaign against whomever won the Democratic nomination, almost certainly NOT Carter.
With result that after twelve years of Republican rule, the Democrats would be a very good bet to win the White House. And after weathering the Recession of early 1980s benefiting for the rest of the decade from recovery and prosperity - something approaching . . . wait for it . . . Morning in America . . .3 - https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/a-ford-administration-in-1977-81.468681/
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No. From Rishi Sunak's point of view there is not and argument for going early. From the Conservative Party's point of view there is.Fishing said:
But in this case, the Conservatives are much more like Major in 1996 than Brown in 2007.
From the Conservative point of view, there's no argument at all for going early and every argument for delay.
Losing by 200 is different from losing by 20 for the Conservative Party. It really isn't for Sunak. So he'd rather hang on based on the off chance, whereas they want to maximise expected number of seats. Totally different things.2 -
"I expect the prime minister will wait until the last date possible date perhaps even going into 2025 before going to the Country. After all Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas."
Any government holding a general election over the NHS winter crisis period is the ultimate example of a turkey voting for Christmas.0 -
@D_G_Alexander
As a young speechwriter I wrote the following line for a Labour Leader’s Conference Speech:
“You can delay the people’s choice. You will not change the people’s verdict.”1 -
Plenty of them would struggle to get a job stacking shelves in Tesco if they did not have access to insiders.MoonRabbit said:
I agree. It’s probably one of the more obvious attack lines from the “Big Book of Opposition Attack Lines You Just Have To Use.”SirNorfolkPassmore said:With the greatest respect, this is nonsense.
It is perfectly appropriate and very effective politics to hound Sunak throughout 2024 with the charge that he is bottling it, and running scared of the electorate.
OGH says, "It is hard to argue that has Sunak bottled it when it is blindingly obvious that his party would face near-certain defeat."
No, Mike. It is all too easy to argue that Sunak has bottled it due to his fear of being judged by the electorate, and it's good politics.
I also think it’s more nuanced than “Turkey's don’t vote for Christmas.” For example, in deciding your date you gather all sorts of data and do all kinds of modelling - one such model might show the economic mood will look good in the spring, where you can generate a vibe of a corner turned allowing money back into pockets, whilst same model shows later in year during a recession, fear of bankruptcies, negative growth, , emptying order books, everything will feel gloomy like it’s going backwards again. Faced with that modelling politicians would choose to go earlier. Which I think has happened, the election is definitely in May.
The other thing wrong with Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas is Turkeys arn’t thinking about their life after politics. Some in government may already be rich but I bet can’t wait to start earning proper money compared to what they are on now, once put out of this current misery.1 -
Two news points from Ukraine:
*) There are *rumours* that Gerasimov has been injured or killed in an attack on Crimea.
*) There are fairly solid suggestions that Russia has started using North Korean ballistic missiles. Obviously an indication that Russia has plenty of its own missiles...
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Given the 4 year election cycle you only really have the first 2 years, max 3 in which you can do unpopular stuff before the consequences start to really bite you...Fishing said:
Except that the other lot have no realistic plan at all (or rather they have dozens of plans, which they give no real sign of believing themselves, and which are discarded the moment anyone points out what crap they are).dixiedean said:The country is fed up.
The current lot have no plan.
It is perfectly obvious to me that we have made up our minds that we need a change of government.
Is stating this self-evident fact somehow impolite?
The current problem is not with the government, it's with the whole political and governmental class. In particular they run things as a permanent election campaign, so never do things that are unpopular in the short term which will deliver benefits in the long term. And there's no grounds for thinking that Labour will be any better than the Conservatives on this.
And this Government is well past that point - it's spent the last year trying to solve a 15-20 point polling deficit. But the people looking at it are so dumb they can't see that their tack to the right is removing voters not gaining them.
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The problem Rishi has is that if he loses by 200 it's very likely that the Portello moment will be "were you up when Rishi lost"?SirNorfolkPassmore said:
No. From Rishi Sunak's point of view there is not and argument for going early. From the Conservative Party's point of view there is.Fishing said:
But in this case, the Conservatives are much more like Major in 1996 than Brown in 2007.
From the Conservative point of view, there's no argument at all for going early and every argument for delay.
Losing by 200 is different from losing by 20 for the Conservative Party. It really isn't for Sunak. So he'd rather hang on based on the off chance, whereas they want to maximise expected number of seats. Totally different things.
And the recent demographic changes to his constituency makes that a slight possibility in the way it never would have been before...0 -
A compassionate winnerSirNorfolkPassmore said:
Tough luck, buster.ClippP said:First
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Breaking overnight:
Voters in Illinois have filed a petition to remove Donald Trump from the state’s Republican primary ballot, echoing efforts in other states to bar the former president from returning to the White House over his role in the 6 January capitol attack.
The petition, similar to those filed in more than a dozen other states, relies on the 14th amendment to the constitution.
1 -
American weakness risks leading us towards a wider worldwide conflagration.
And the weakness is on the side of both a Republican party playing stupid partisan games, and a US president who is unwilling or unable to sell the risks to the American public.
There are several areas of obvious ongoing conflict:
*) Russia - Ukraine.
*) Israel - Gaza - West Bank
*) Houtis - Red Sea
*) Iran - everyone
Then there are the potential ones:
*) North Korea - South Korea
*) China - Taiwan
The US - and even the West - cannot hope to deal with all of these at once, without going onto a war footing. And we have sleepwalked into a situation where we have allowed smaller conflicts to grow.
We are living in very dangerous times. And I cannot see a Biden 2 or Trump 2 presidency dealing with them in any way effectively.2 -
Politics over governance.Fishing said:
Except that the other lot have no realistic plan at all (or rather they have dozens of plans, which they give no real sign of believing themselves, and which are discarded the moment anyone points out what crap they are).dixiedean said:The country is fed up.
The current lot have no plan.
It is perfectly obvious to me that we have made up our minds that we need a change of government.
Is stating this self-evident fact somehow impolite?
The current problem is not with the government, it's with the whole political and governmental class. In particular they run things as a permanent election campaign, so never do things that are unpopular in the short term which will deliver benefits in the long term. And there's no grounds for thinking that Labour will be any better than the Conservatives on this.1 -
The issues are global and go way beyond national politics. In essence the free market let rip and decided (understandably) to stick production into cheaper markets. Which has damaging effects on the western countries who grew rich from manufacturing.JosiasJessop said:American weakness risks leading us towards a wider worldwide conflagration.
And the weakness is on the side of both a Republican party playing stupid partisan games, and a US president who is unwilling or unable to sell the risks to the American public.
There are several areas of obvious ongoing conflict:
*) Russia - Ukraine.
*) Israel - Gaza - West Bank
*) Houtis - Red Sea
*) Iran - everyone
Then there are the potential ones:
*) North Korea - South Korea
*) China - Taiwan
The US - and even the West - cannot hope to deal with all of these at once, without going onto a war footing. And we have sleepwalked into a situation where we have allowed smaller conflicts to grow.
We are living in very dangerous times. And I cannot see a Biden 2 or Trump 2 presidency dealing with them in any way effectively.
If America or Britain or Germany want to stay both competitive and prosperous, they need to invest heavily to onshore manufacturing. We are all more expensive than China, but we can get cheaper by investing in skills and technology.
A change from laisse-faire free marketism into a more mercantilist position is the Brexit that a lot of people in the producer sector- farming and fishing as examples - voted for...7 -
Unfortunately I think this is actually another of the 'thinking mans arguments for Trump", in a sort of last roll of the dice for western civilisation way. He previously managed to keep a lot of this in check.JosiasJessop said:American weakness risks leading us towards a wider worldwide conflagration.
And the weakness is on the side of both a Republican party playing stupid partisan games, and a US president who is unwilling or unable to sell the risks to the American public.
There are several areas of obvious ongoing conflict:
*) Russia - Ukraine.
*) Israel - Gaza - West Bank
*) Houtis - Red Sea
*) Iran - everyone
Then there are the potential ones:
*) North Korea - South Korea
*) China - Taiwan
The US - and even the West - cannot hope to deal with all of these at once, without going onto a war footing. And we have sleepwalked into a situation where we have allowed smaller conflicts to grow.
We are living in very dangerous times. And I cannot see a Biden 2 or Trump 2 presidency dealing with them in any way effectively.0 -
A small ray of hope from the i:
From 4 March, Americans will see Trump having to sit in a Washington Federal Courthouse for six to seven hours a day. Court attendance by the accused is obligatory in criminal cases. He might have to do this for two months and keep his mouth shut the entire time. All the while he will be considering the probability that no-nonsense Judge Tanya Chutkan, who has already dealt harsh sentences to 6 January 2021 rioters, will send him down for years.
He might want to avoid the agony and humiliation by upping and running before the trials even start. LeBoutillier doubts that Trump will walk into the DC court room. “He either will become sick and unable to stand trial, or he will make a plea deal to avoid prison,” he writes.
“A plea deal would fit with Trump’s longtime modus operandi. In civil litigation he is all bluster, and then, at the last minute, he settles. He will do that in this case, too: Negotiate a deal in which he pleads guilty and withdraws from the campaign in return for a guarantee that he will not be sent to prison. Facing three other criminal trials, he may very well agree to a Universal Plea Agreement that keeps him out of prison on all cases in exchange for a guilty plea and an admission of responsibility.
Patricia Crouse, a politics professor at the University of New Haven, agrees. “I have long believed that one way or another, Trump will find an “exit ramp” to let him walk away from the election with his reputation intact, at least among the Maga crowd,” she says.1 -
It's not a seat that Trump (or any Republican) has a chance of winning so meh..IanB2 said:Breaking overnight:
Voters in Illinois have filed a petition to remove Donald Trump from the state’s Republican primary ballot, echoing efforts in other states to bar the former president from returning to the White House over his role in the 6 January capitol attack.
The petition, similar to those filed in more than a dozen other states, relies on the 14th amendment to the constitution.0 -
I think this is spot on. Clearly there are some important benefits to the current globalised free market model but to my mind they are far outweighed by the risks and costs in terms of sustainability, security and self sufficiency.RochdalePioneers said:
The issues are global and go way beyond national politics. In essence the free market let rip and decided (understandably) to stick production into cheaper markets. Which has damaging effects on the western countries who grew rich from manufacturing.JosiasJessop said:American weakness risks leading us towards a wider worldwide conflagration.
And the weakness is on the side of both a Republican party playing stupid partisan games, and a US president who is unwilling or unable to sell the risks to the American public.
There are several areas of obvious ongoing conflict:
*) Russia - Ukraine.
*) Israel - Gaza - West Bank
*) Houtis - Red Sea
*) Iran - everyone
Then there are the potential ones:
*) North Korea - South Korea
*) China - Taiwan
The US - and even the West - cannot hope to deal with all of these at once, without going onto a war footing. And we have sleepwalked into a situation where we have allowed smaller conflicts to grow.
We are living in very dangerous times. And I cannot see a Biden 2 or Trump 2 presidency dealing with them in any way effectively.
If America or Britain or Germany want to stay both competitive and prosperous, they need to invest heavily to onshore manufacturing. We are all more expensive than China, but we can get cheaper by investing in skills and technology.
A change from laisse-faire free marketism into a more mercantilist position is the Brexit that a lot of people in the producer sector- farming and fishing as examples - voted for...4 -
Given the charges against him I can't see any plea bargain that doesn't given him jail time which he won't accept.IanB2 said:A small ray of hope from the i:
From 4 March, Americans will see Trump having to sit in a Washington Federal Courthouse for six to seven hours a day. Court attendance by the accused is obligatory in criminal cases. He might have to do this for two months and keep his mouth shut the entire time. All the while he will be considering the probability that no-nonsense Judge Tanya Chutkan, who has already dealt harsh sentences to 6 January 2021 rioters, will send him down for years.
He might want to avoid the agony and humiliation by upping and running before the trials even start. LeBoutillier doubts that Trump will walk into the DC court room. “He either will become sick and unable to stand trial, or he will make a plea deal to avoid prison,” he writes.
“A plea deal would fit with Trump’s longtime modus operandi. In civil litigation he is all bluster, and then, at the last minute, he settles. He will do that in this case, too: Negotiate a deal in which he pleads guilty and withdraws from the campaign in return for a guarantee that he will not be sent to prison. Facing three other criminal trials, he may very well agree to a Universal Plea Agreement that keeps him out of prison on all cases in exchange for a guilty plea and an admission of responsibility.
Patricia Crouse, a politics professor at the University of New Haven, agrees. “I have long believed that one way or another, Trump will find an “exit ramp” to let him walk away from the election with his reputation intact, at least among the Maga crowd,” she says.
It's a shame it's not a week earlier though - because I suspect Trump will win Super Tuesday based on Maga sympathy votes...
0 -
On topic, I regretfully join those disagreeing with Mike's piece. We have just over 11 months until parliament legally dissolves itself. An election isn't a choice - like death it is an inevitability.
Tories and their fellow travellers remain occasionally optimistic and often argumentative ("you're all the same as us, Sunak has no plan" etc). But generally realist in understanding: its over.
Even if Sunak came up with new pledges for 2024 to replace the failed pledges of 2023, nobody is listening. Nor are there realistic signs of significant improvement in the areas that Tories supposedly focus on - indeed the metrics all show a worsening position.
Sunak's only choice is when and how. And yesterday's fun opens the door to May being the positive choice, the unexpected surprise. Calling an election on his terms off the back of a winter offensive and giveaway budget. Or linger on until expiry.1 -
Its an interesting one. As more petitions on the 14th pile in, the more general the acceptance that Trump is an insurrectionist. Getting him to withdraw from the campaign would be a great thing, but surely also opens him to the acceptance that he's withdrawn because he is an insurrectionist.eek said:
Given the charges against him I can't see any plea bargain that doesn't given him jail time which he won't accept.IanB2 said:A small ray of hope from the i:
From 4 March, Americans will see Trump having to sit in a Washington Federal Courthouse for six to seven hours a day. Court attendance by the accused is obligatory in criminal cases. He might have to do this for two months and keep his mouth shut the entire time. All the while he will be considering the probability that no-nonsense Judge Tanya Chutkan, who has already dealt harsh sentences to 6 January 2021 rioters, will send him down for years.
He might want to avoid the agony and humiliation by upping and running before the trials even start. LeBoutillier doubts that Trump will walk into the DC court room. “He either will become sick and unable to stand trial, or he will make a plea deal to avoid prison,” he writes.
“A plea deal would fit with Trump’s longtime modus operandi. In civil litigation he is all bluster, and then, at the last minute, he settles. He will do that in this case, too: Negotiate a deal in which he pleads guilty and withdraws from the campaign in return for a guarantee that he will not be sent to prison. Facing three other criminal trials, he may very well agree to a Universal Plea Agreement that keeps him out of prison on all cases in exchange for a guilty plea and an admission of responsibility.
Patricia Crouse, a politics professor at the University of New Haven, agrees. “I have long believed that one way or another, Trump will find an “exit ramp” to let him walk away from the election with his reputation intact, at least among the Maga crowd,” she says.
It's a shame it's not a week earlier though - because I suspect Trump will win Super Tuesday based on Maga sympathy votes...
A crime which as you point out carries substantial jail time.0 -
Official 2024 Leon Water Fast Sitrep
40 hours. Am in ketosis. Feel light headed and sleepy and weird0 -
Good morning everyone! A very grey day here, but at least it’s not raining.
What a shame that “pull down everything” Johnson abolished theFTPA. With that, we knew where we were!0 -
With the greatest of respect, Leon, and without wishing to be unkind, how do YOU know when you’re feeling weird?Leon said:Official 2024 Leon Water Fast Sitrep
40 hours. Am in ketosis. Feel light headed and sleepy and weird1 -
Absolutely. The only sensible approach to Brexit is a mercantalist approach. The economic factors that drove Brexit are a reaction to globalism. We need import substitution, tarrifs and non-tariff barriers.RochdalePioneers said:
The issues are global and go way beyond national politics. In essence the free market let rip and decided (understandably) to stick production into cheaper markets. Which has damaging effects on the western countries who grew rich from manufacturing.JosiasJessop said:American weakness risks leading us towards a wider worldwide conflagration.
And the weakness is on the side of both a Republican party playing stupid partisan games, and a US president who is unwilling or unable to sell the risks to the American public.
There are several areas of obvious ongoing conflict:
*) Russia - Ukraine.
*) Israel - Gaza - West Bank
*) Houtis - Red Sea
*) Iran - everyone
Then there are the potential ones:
*) North Korea - South Korea
*) China - Taiwan
The US - and even the West - cannot hope to deal with all of these at once, without going onto a war footing. And we have sleepwalked into a situation where we have allowed smaller conflicts to grow.
We are living in very dangerous times. And I cannot see a Biden 2 or Trump 2 presidency dealing with them in any way effectively.
If America or Britain or Germany want to stay both competitive and prosperous, they need to invest heavily to onshore manufacturing. We are all more expensive than China, but we can get cheaper by investing in skills and technology.
A change from laisse-faire free marketism into a more mercantilist position is the Brexit that a lot of people in the producer sector- farming and fishing as examples - voted for...1 -
Indeed. As an example of the former, we have people on PB advocating that we go for a diet based on meat rather than veg - and some insist that we should rely on meat imported from Australia. Though UK produced meat at those levels would still depend on grain imports.RochdalePioneers said:
The issues are global and go way beyond national politics. In essence the free market let rip and decided (understandably) to stick production into cheaper markets. Which has damaging effects on the western countries who grew rich from manufacturing.JosiasJessop said:American weakness risks leading us towards a wider worldwide conflagration.
And the weakness is on the side of both a Republican party playing stupid partisan games, and a US president who is unwilling or unable to sell the risks to the American public.
There are several areas of obvious ongoing conflict:
*) Russia - Ukraine.
*) Israel - Gaza - West Bank
*) Houtis - Red Sea
*) Iran - everyone
Then there are the potential ones:
*) North Korea - South Korea
*) China - Taiwan
The US - and even the West - cannot hope to deal with all of these at once, without going onto a war footing. And we have sleepwalked into a situation where we have allowed smaller conflicts to grow.
We are living in very dangerous times. And I cannot see a Biden 2 or Trump 2 presidency dealing with them in any way effectively.
If America or Britain or Germany want to stay both competitive and prosperous, they need to invest heavily to onshore manufacturing. We are all more expensive than China, but we can get cheaper by investing in skills and technology.
A change from laisse-faire free marketism into a more mercantilist position is the Brexit that a lot of people in the producer sector- farming and fishing as examples - voted for...0 -
Not something I have any knowledge about (but it has never stopped anyone else from posting here), but isn't it important regarding the Republican nomination (Note it refers to the Republican primary ballot). I believe @HYUFD has posted on this before so he might be able to give more details.eek said:
It's not a seat that Trump (or any Republican) has a chance of winning so meh..IanB2 said:Breaking overnight:
Voters in Illinois have filed a petition to remove Donald Trump from the state’s Republican primary ballot, echoing efforts in other states to bar the former president from returning to the White House over his role in the 6 January capitol attack.
The petition, similar to those filed in more than a dozen other states, relies on the 14th amendment to the constitution.0 -
It’s a good point. I will be specific. I feel a mixture of intense mental lucidity followed by copious yawning and sleepiness - and then back againOldKingCole said:
With the greatest of respect, Leon, and without wishing to be unkind, how do YOU know when you’re feeling weird?Leon said:Official 2024 Leon Water Fast Sitrep
40 hours. Am in ketosis. Feel light headed and sleepy and weird
I’ve been reading about fasts. There is quite a literature on fasts, now
It all makes sense from a Darwinian perspective. If you go into a severe fast your body thinks you cannot find anything to hunt kill and eat so it tells the metabolism to adapt
When you have the chance to rest you will rest and nap and conserve energy. But when you do something you do it with total commitment - your body wants you to succeed at hunting. You scan the horizon for prey with extra acuity0 -
A May election may see the party win more seats, but I don’t see how anyone can be confident in that prediction. It is not screaming at 500 decibels.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
I agree.MoonRabbit said:
If the election was remotely winnable, the psychology would be completely different. The precedent is rarely has defeat looked as certain and as brutal as this one from so far out. Don’t underestimate the psychology of prolonging the pain till the inevitable. Each day must be hideous for them, not fun. It might even be on their minds each day looking like losers might shape peoples opinions ahead of their next jobs and careers the longer it goes on.Fishing said:I agree with Mike.
Can anyone think of a PM going before he had to when it was virtually certain he'd lose? All the precedent is in the other direction: Brown in 2010, Major in 1997, Callaghan in 1979, Douglas-Home in 1964.
And, who knows, Starmer in 2030?
The right thing for Sunak's party is to maximise the number of seats retained. That screams May at 500 decibels.
The right thing for Sunak personally is to hang on, hoping that something happens. He doesn't give a damn if the Labour majority is 200 or 20 - either way, he's finished.
The likelihood is that a November election would be worse than a May one as the "running scared" narrative builds and defeat follows defeat in Wellingborough, the locals, and Blackpool. But both central estimates involve defeat, whereas basic uncertainty means there is at least some tiny chance something will happen on some odd Autumn day to transform the landscape.0 -
Not to mention some of our competitors (or allies) are ahead of us, in terms of both protectionism and subsidies for domestic production. Hail to the Chief!Richard_Tyndall said:
I think this is spot on. Clearly there are some important benefits to the current globalised free market model but to my mind they are far outweighed by the risks and costs in terms of sustainability, security and self sufficiency.RochdalePioneers said:
The issues are global and go way beyond national politics. In essence the free market let rip and decided (understandably) to stick production into cheaper markets. Which has damaging effects on the western countries who grew rich from manufacturing.JosiasJessop said:American weakness risks leading us towards a wider worldwide conflagration.
And the weakness is on the side of both a Republican party playing stupid partisan games, and a US president who is unwilling or unable to sell the risks to the American public.
There are several areas of obvious ongoing conflict:
*) Russia - Ukraine.
*) Israel - Gaza - West Bank
*) Houtis - Red Sea
*) Iran - everyone
Then there are the potential ones:
*) North Korea - South Korea
*) China - Taiwan
The US - and even the West - cannot hope to deal with all of these at once, without going onto a war footing. And we have sleepwalked into a situation where we have allowed smaller conflicts to grow.
We are living in very dangerous times. And I cannot see a Biden 2 or Trump 2 presidency dealing with them in any way effectively.
If America or Britain or Germany want to stay both competitive and prosperous, they need to invest heavily to onshore manufacturing. We are all more expensive than China, but we can get cheaper by investing in skills and technology.
A change from laisse-faire free marketism into a more mercantilist position is the Brexit that a lot of people in the producer sector- farming and fishing as examples - voted for...1 -
Only if you are deranged, no sensible person would put a lunatic in charge of the asylum.darkage said:
Unfortunately I think this is actually another of the 'thinking mans arguments for Trump", in a sort of last roll of the dice for western civilisation way. He previously managed to keep a lot of this in check.JosiasJessop said:American weakness risks leading us towards a wider worldwide conflagration.
And the weakness is on the side of both a Republican party playing stupid partisan games, and a US president who is unwilling or unable to sell the risks to the American public.
There are several areas of obvious ongoing conflict:
*) Russia - Ukraine.
*) Israel - Gaza - West Bank
*) Houtis - Red Sea
*) Iran - everyone
Then there are the potential ones:
*) North Korea - South Korea
*) China - Taiwan
The US - and even the West - cannot hope to deal with all of these at once, without going onto a war footing. And we have sleepwalked into a situation where we have allowed smaller conflicts to grow.
We are living in very dangerous times. And I cannot see a Biden 2 or Trump 2 presidency dealing with them in any way effectively.2 -
Interested in the feedback @Leon. I fast when I diet, although not to this scale as it is the only way I can lose weight and I lose lots when I do it as I eat and drink a lot normally, although I do eat very healthily (and when I say a lot I mean a lot). I just cut down to one big meal a day, no nibbles and no alcohol and I do break it for any social event.Leon said:
It’s a good point. I will be specific. I feel a mixture of intense mental lucidity followed by copious yawning and sleepiness - and then back againOldKingCole said:
With the greatest of respect, Leon, and without wishing to be unkind, how do YOU know when you’re feeling weird?Leon said:Official 2024 Leon Water Fast Sitrep
40 hours. Am in ketosis. Feel light headed and sleepy and weird
I’ve been reading about fasts. There is quite a literature on fasts, now
It all makes sense from a Darwinian perspective. If you go into a severe fast your body thinks you cannot find anything to hunt kill and eat so it tells the metabolism to adapt
When you have the chance to rest you will rest and nap and conserve energy. But when you do something you do it with total commitment - your body wants you to succeed at hunting. You scan the horizon for prey with extra acuity
I assumed fasting was not necessarily good for you and I do tend to put the weight back on after a bit (Lost 8 kg prior to my last May cycle ride, 5 of those are back on), but I notice you have said you have read it is good for you. I am interested in knowing more about that?
On a pedantic point I note your Darwinian comments. We may well have evolved out of that by now (or maybe not). We have had generations where the need to do that has gone so it is not a trait that represents the fittest of the species (the survivors) and therefore likely to be passed down as much. I thought the same sometime ago when you compared dogs to wolves. Again dogs have gone through a huge evolutionary change due to domestication and so can't be compared to wolves in behaviour. It is worth noting that sometime ago dog trainers relied on that relationship in the techniques they use. That has gone out of fashion now as not being correct.0 -
The Institute for Government released this report on Sunak’s 5 pledges from a year ago: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/rishi-sunaks-five-pledges-one-yearRochdalePioneers said:On topic, I regretfully join those disagreeing with Mike's piece. We have just over 11 months until parliament legally dissolves itself. An election isn't a choice - like death it is an inevitability.
Tories and their fellow travellers remain occasionally optimistic and often argumentative ("you're all the same as us, Sunak has no plan" etc). But generally realist in understanding: its over.
Even if Sunak came up with new pledges for 2024 to replace the failed pledges of 2023, nobody is listening. Nor are there realistic signs of significant improvement in the areas that Tories supposedly focus on - indeed the metrics all show a worsening position.
Sunak's only choice is when and how. And yesterday's fun opens the door to May being the positive choice, the unexpected surprise. Calling an election on his terms off the back of a winter offensive and giveaway budget. Or linger on until expiry.
In summary: he has achieved two (halving inflation and growing the economy), which were easy to achieve. He has not achieved the others (debt falling, NHS waiting lists, stopping the boats).0 -
Lingering on has its own benefits, though, and not just extra months of chauffeurs and country houses. My prediction remains that January 2025 is still on (or will be brought back to) the table because a Christmas campaign favours the Conservatives by neutralising Opposition parties' better ground games, and it gives more time for something to turn up.RochdalePioneers said:On topic, I regretfully join those disagreeing with Mike's piece. We have just over 11 months until parliament legally dissolves itself. An election isn't a choice - like death it is an inevitability.
Tories and their fellow travellers remain occasionally optimistic and often argumentative ("you're all the same as us, Sunak has no plan" etc). But generally realist in understanding: its over.
Even if Sunak came up with new pledges for 2024 to replace the failed pledges of 2023, nobody is listening. Nor are there realistic signs of significant improvement in the areas that Tories supposedly focus on - indeed the metrics all show a worsening position.
Sunak's only choice is when and how. And yesterday's fun opens the door to May being the positive choice, the unexpected surprise. Calling an election on his terms off the back of a winter offensive and giveaway budget. Or linger on until expiry.0 -
.
Mate, what are you doing? Stop with the dieting fads. Eat a regular, balanced diet. Ease up on the booze, do some simple exercise plan like Couch to 5K. It ain't rocket science.Leon said:Official 2024 Leon Water Fast Sitrep
40 hours. Am in ketosis. Feel light headed and sleepy and weird2 -
OT I got 0 out of 7 on the BBC's weekly news quiz, so take my prognostications on electoral politics with a pinch of salt.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-678831430 -
Yes, there is reasonably good evidence that fasting increases longevity, probably by boosting cellular repair.kjh said:
Interested in the feedback @Leon. I fast when I diet, although not to this scale as it is the only way I can lose weight and I lose lots when I do it as I eat and drink a lot normally, although I do eat very healthily (and when I say a lot I mean a lot). I just cut down to one big meal a day, no nibbles and no alcohol and I do break it for any social event.Leon said:
It’s a good point. I will be specific. I feel a mixture of intense mental lucidity followed by copious yawning and sleepiness - and then back againOldKingCole said:
With the greatest of respect, Leon, and without wishing to be unkind, how do YOU know when you’re feeling weird?Leon said:Official 2024 Leon Water Fast Sitrep
40 hours. Am in ketosis. Feel light headed and sleepy and weird
I’ve been reading about fasts. There is quite a literature on fasts, now
It all makes sense from a Darwinian perspective. If you go into a severe fast your body thinks you cannot find anything to hunt kill and eat so it tells the metabolism to adapt
When you have the chance to rest you will rest and nap and conserve energy. But when you do something you do it with total commitment - your body wants you to succeed at hunting. You scan the horizon for prey with extra acuity
I assumed fasting was not necessarily good for you and I do tend to put the weight back on after a bit (Lost 8 kg prior to my last May cycle ride, 5 of those are back on), but I notice you have said you have read it is good for you. I am interested in knowing more about that?
On a pedantic point I note your Darwinian comments. We may well have evolved out of that by now (or maybe not). We have had generations where the need to do that has gone so it is not a trait that represents the fittest of the species (the survivors) and therefore likely to be passed down as much. I thought the same sometime ago when you compared dogs to wolves. Again dogs have gone through a huge evolutionary change due to domestication and so can't be compared to wolves in behaviour. It is worth noting that sometime ago dog trainers relied on that relationship in the techniques they use. That has gone out of fashion now as not being correct.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8932957/2 -
Dear god 40 hours it's just one day without food you make it sound as though you're crossing the Sinai.Leon said:
It’s a good point. I will be specific. I feel a mixture of intense mental lucidity followed by copious yawning and sleepiness - and then back againOldKingCole said:
With the greatest of respect, Leon, and without wishing to be unkind, how do YOU know when you’re feeling weird?Leon said:Official 2024 Leon Water Fast Sitrep
40 hours. Am in ketosis. Feel light headed and sleepy and weird
I’ve been reading about fasts. There is quite a literature on fasts, now
It all makes sense from a Darwinian perspective. If you go into a severe fast your body thinks you cannot find anything to hunt kill and eat so it tells the metabolism to adapt
When you have the chance to rest you will rest and nap and conserve energy. But when you do something you do it with total commitment - your body wants you to succeed at hunting. You scan the horizon for prey with extra acuity
Give it a few more days and then all that stuff will kick in big style.1 -
I
I actively LIKE fastingtwistedfirestopper3 said:.
Mate, what are you doing? Stop with the dieting fads. Eat a regular, balanced diet. Ease up on the booze, do some simple exercise plan like Couch to 5K. It ain't rocket science.Leon said:Official 2024 Leon Water Fast Sitrep
40 hours. Am in ketosis. Feel light headed and sleepy and weird
I feel cleansed. I lose weight. I stop boozing. I detox my liver
And - as Dr @Foxy nofes - there is now an ample literature on the many benefits of fasting. Autophagy!
See also the literature on increased longevity in animals with severely reduced calorific intake
We aren’t meant for a life of easeful plenty with three square sugary meals a day. We are built for a life on the savage plains - eat an antelope once every 3 days. Go without at other times0 -
I've lost 4 kg in 4 days. I am not doing anything crazy like a 5 day fast...Leon said:Official 2024 Leon Water Fast Sitrep
40 hours. Am in ketosis. Feel light headed and sleepy and weird1 -
Imagine this time next year (without the strikes) the NHS would still be at breaking point with 24+ hours waits for bedsDecrepiterJohnL said:
Lingering on has its own benefits, though, and not just extra months of chauffeurs and country houses. My prediction remains that January 2025 is still on (or will be brought back to) the table because a Christmas campaign favours the Conservatives by neutralising Opposition parties' better ground games, and it gives more time for something to turn up.RochdalePioneers said:On topic, I regretfully join those disagreeing with Mike's piece. We have just over 11 months until parliament legally dissolves itself. An election isn't a choice - like death it is an inevitability.
Tories and their fellow travellers remain occasionally optimistic and often argumentative ("you're all the same as us, Sunak has no plan" etc). But generally realist in understanding: its over.
Even if Sunak came up with new pledges for 2024 to replace the failed pledges of 2023, nobody is listening. Nor are there realistic signs of significant improvement in the areas that Tories supposedly focus on - indeed the metrics all show a worsening position.
Sunak's only choice is when and how. And yesterday's fun opens the door to May being the positive choice, the unexpected surprise. Calling an election on his terms off the back of a winter offensive and giveaway budget. Or linger on until expiry.1 -
Matt Goodwin on migration with a link to some updated statistical and detail including the tactics of minor universities to raise cash from overseas students. No idea if it's accurate:
https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/the-big-tory-lie?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=1mnpci&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email0 -
He does go from extreme to extreme.twistedfirestopper3 said:.
Mate, what are you doing? Stop with the dieting fads. Eat a regular, balanced diet. Ease up on the booze, do some simple exercise plan like Couch to 5K. It ain't rocket science.Leon said:Official 2024 Leon Water Fast Sitrep
40 hours. Am in ketosis. Feel light headed and sleepy and weird1 -
According to that paper, the suggestion is that you get many if not most of the benefits by restricting eating to 10-12 hours per day. So you can breakfast at 8am and have dinner at 6pm, and still qualify - no need to do the silly stuff like trying to live on water only for days?Foxy said:
Yes, there is reasonably good evidence that fasting increases longevity, probably by boosting cellular repair.kjh said:
Interested in the feedback @Leon. I fast when I diet, although not to this scale as it is the only way I can lose weight and I lose lots when I do it as I eat and drink a lot normally, although I do eat very healthily (and when I say a lot I mean a lot). I just cut down to one big meal a day, no nibbles and no alcohol and I do break it for any social event.Leon said:
It’s a good point. I will be specific. I feel a mixture of intense mental lucidity followed by copious yawning and sleepiness - and then back againOldKingCole said:
With the greatest of respect, Leon, and without wishing to be unkind, how do YOU know when you’re feeling weird?Leon said:Official 2024 Leon Water Fast Sitrep
40 hours. Am in ketosis. Feel light headed and sleepy and weird
I’ve been reading about fasts. There is quite a literature on fasts, now
It all makes sense from a Darwinian perspective. If you go into a severe fast your body thinks you cannot find anything to hunt kill and eat so it tells the metabolism to adapt
When you have the chance to rest you will rest and nap and conserve energy. But when you do something you do it with total commitment - your body wants you to succeed at hunting. You scan the horizon for prey with extra acuity
I assumed fasting was not necessarily good for you and I do tend to put the weight back on after a bit (Lost 8 kg prior to my last May cycle ride, 5 of those are back on), but I notice you have said you have read it is good for you. I am interested in knowing more about that?
On a pedantic point I note your Darwinian comments. We may well have evolved out of that by now (or maybe not). We have had generations where the need to do that has gone so it is not a trait that represents the fittest of the species (the survivors) and therefore likely to be passed down as much. I thought the same sometime ago when you compared dogs to wolves. Again dogs have gone through a huge evolutionary change due to domestication and so can't be compared to wolves in behaviour. It is worth noting that sometime ago dog trainers relied on that relationship in the techniques they use. That has gone out of fashion now as not being correct.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8932957/0 -
Yes, for any sort of food addiction the first day is usually relatively easy.TOPPING said:
Dear god 40 hours it's just one day without food you make it sound as though you're crossing the Sinai.Leon said:
It’s a good point. I will be specific. I feel a mixture of intense mental lucidity followed by copious yawning and sleepiness - and then back againOldKingCole said:
With the greatest of respect, Leon, and without wishing to be unkind, how do YOU know when you’re feeling weird?Leon said:Official 2024 Leon Water Fast Sitrep
40 hours. Am in ketosis. Feel light headed and sleepy and weird
I’ve been reading about fasts. There is quite a literature on fasts, now
It all makes sense from a Darwinian perspective. If you go into a severe fast your body thinks you cannot find anything to hunt kill and eat so it tells the metabolism to adapt
When you have the chance to rest you will rest and nap and conserve energy. But when you do something you do it with total commitment - your body wants you to succeed at hunting. You scan the horizon for prey with extra acuity
Give it a few more days and then all that stuff will kick in big style.0 -
That was my original position for the reasons you give. I wholly see the appeal of 2nd May. Beyond that, what other dates hold more appeal. Going straight after the summer is mega risk. Going later in October or November means navigating too many boulders. A pre-Christmas campaign worked for Boris, but can you imagine how cringe a Rishi Love Actually PPB would be?DecrepiterJohnL said:
Lingering on has its own benefits, though, and not just extra months of chauffeurs and country houses. My prediction remains that January 2025 is still on (or will be brought back to) the table because a Christmas campaign favours the Conservatives by neutralising Opposition parties' better ground games, and it gives more time for something to turn up.RochdalePioneers said:On topic, I regretfully join those disagreeing with Mike's piece. We have just over 11 months until parliament legally dissolves itself. An election isn't a choice - like death it is an inevitability.
Tories and their fellow travellers remain occasionally optimistic and often argumentative ("you're all the same as us, Sunak has no plan" etc). But generally realist in understanding: its over.
Even if Sunak came up with new pledges for 2024 to replace the failed pledges of 2023, nobody is listening. Nor are there realistic signs of significant improvement in the areas that Tories supposedly focus on - indeed the metrics all show a worsening position.
Sunak's only choice is when and how. And yesterday's fun opens the door to May being the positive choice, the unexpected surprise. Calling an election on his terms off the back of a winter offensive and giveaway budget. Or linger on until expiry.
Once you pass 2nd May you're essentially holding out for the safety car.3 -
Personal note
I got really chubby in early middle age - 2 stone overweight. I lost it all with a mixture of sensible eating, lots of exercise, and periodic fasting
I then KEPT up the regime of intermittent or periodic fasting for fifteen years and stayed around 80-82kg. My ideal weight
I also exercised and I drank too much booze
Covid fucked all this up. I stopped exercising so much. I gave up fasting as life was so boring all I had was meals. I carried on boozing. I put on the 2 stone and more and it has only slowly slowly shifted (using Ozempic as well)
I am now determined to lose the Covid blob and go back to my ideal weight so I am returning to fasting. With the added austerity of really cutting back on the booze as well
Fasting works for me. I did it before all the literature came out about it being good for you and now I’m doing it again, this time with science cheering me on0 -
Fasting is more interesting than just having a balanced diet. I have a good friend who just fasts as a matter of course from Sunday night until Tuesday morning every week. He says he looks forward to it as a jump start to the working week. Picked it up during a few years in the Middle East.Leon said:I
I actively LIKE fastingtwistedfirestopper3 said:.
Mate, what are you doing? Stop with the dieting fads. Eat a regular, balanced diet. Ease up on the booze, do some simple exercise plan like Couch to 5K. It ain't rocket science.Leon said:Official 2024 Leon Water Fast Sitrep
40 hours. Am in ketosis. Feel light headed and sleepy and weird
I feel cleansed. I lose weight. I stop boozing. I detox my liver
And - as Dr @Foxy nofes - there is now an ample literature on the many benefits of fasting. Autophagy!
See also the literature on increased longevity in animals with severely reduced calorific intake
We aren’t meant for a life of easeful plenty with three square sugary meals a day. We are built for a life on the savage plains - eat an antelope once every 3 days. Go without at other times
I've not ever gone that far with fasting but am partial to the occasional 20 hours or so without food.0 -
Jeez, I pity any women that are within your gaze.Leon said:
It’s a good point. I will be specific. I feel a mixture of intense mental lucidity followed by copious yawning and sleepiness - and then back againOldKingCole said:
With the greatest of respect, Leon, and without wishing to be unkind, how do YOU know when you’re feeling weird?Leon said:Official 2024 Leon Water Fast Sitrep
40 hours. Am in ketosis. Feel light headed and sleepy and weird
I’ve been reading about fasts. There is quite a literature on fasts, now
It all makes sense from a Darwinian perspective. If you go into a severe fast your body thinks you cannot find anything to hunt kill and eat so it tells the metabolism to adapt
When you have the chance to rest you will rest and nap and conserve energy. But when you do something you do it with total commitment - your body wants you to succeed at hunting. You scan the horizon for prey with extra acuity1 -
I see it’s a day for persuading folk that The Telegraph (& its attached wart, The Spectator) is a noble, shining, independent jewel in the crown of British journalism.
Good luck with that.2 -
Actually 40 hours without a single calorie crossing your lips is quite impactful. You definitely notice itTOPPING said:
Dear god 40 hours it's just one day without food you make it sound as though you're crossing the Sinai.Leon said:
It’s a good point. I will be specific. I feel a mixture of intense mental lucidity followed by copious yawning and sleepiness - and then back againOldKingCole said:
With the greatest of respect, Leon, and without wishing to be unkind, how do YOU know when you’re feeling weird?Leon said:Official 2024 Leon Water Fast Sitrep
40 hours. Am in ketosis. Feel light headed and sleepy and weird
I’ve been reading about fasts. There is quite a literature on fasts, now
It all makes sense from a Darwinian perspective. If you go into a severe fast your body thinks you cannot find anything to hunt kill and eat so it tells the metabolism to adapt
When you have the chance to rest you will rest and nap and conserve energy. But when you do something you do it with total commitment - your body wants you to succeed at hunting. You scan the horizon for prey with extra acuity
Give it a few more days and then all that stuff will kick in big style.0 -
For a university lecturer, he doesn't seem to know much about HE.algarkirk said:Matt Goodwin on migration with a link to some updated statistical and detail including the tactics of minor universities to raise cash from overseas students. No idea if it's accurate:
https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/the-big-tory-lie?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=1mnpci&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
For starters, his obsessive repeating of 'elite universities' is BS and unless he"s stupid he knows it. Even the best universities, including Cambridge, have wide variations in quality between faculties.
For another his 'MAs of typically less than eighteen months' - well, yes. Typically they last one year. Why is that a bad thing? Does he want them wasting time on write up years with no funding to support them?
'PhDs at elite universities' - here he does have more of a point becuase it is actually better to do research degrees like a PhD or even an MPhil at a research focussed university, for all sorts of practical reasons (not least, the extra resources available). But that also means they would be here longer, and he was saying they shouldn't be.
(It's even more puzzling given he teaches at the University of Kent which, like Bath or Aberystwyth, is a research uni but not Russell Group, and has 41% international intake. So he's actually one of the worst offenders by his own criteria. I wonder if the Pro-Vice Chancellor might call him in for a quiet word.)1 -
Are you saying it might still be 2 May? 😈RochdalePioneers said:On topic, I regretfully join those disagreeing with Mike's piece. We have just over 11 months until parliament legally dissolves itself. An election isn't a choice - like death it is an inevitability.
Tories and their fellow travellers remain occasionally optimistic and often argumentative ("you're all the same as us, Sunak has no plan" etc). But generally realist in understanding: its over.
Even if Sunak came up with new pledges for 2024 to replace the failed pledges of 2023, nobody is listening. Nor are there realistic signs of significant improvement in the areas that Tories supposedly focus on - indeed the metrics all show a worsening position.
Sunak's only choice is when and how. And yesterday's fun opens the door to May being the positive choice, the unexpected surprise. Calling an election on his terms off the back of a winter offensive and giveaway budget. Or linger on until expiry.1 -
The second day is the hard one. The ghrelin kicks in - the hunger hormoneIanB2 said:
Yes, for any sort of food addiction the first day is usually relatively easy.TOPPING said:
Dear god 40 hours it's just one day without food you make it sound as though you're crossing the Sinai.Leon said:
It’s a good point. I will be specific. I feel a mixture of intense mental lucidity followed by copious yawning and sleepiness - and then back againOldKingCole said:
With the greatest of respect, Leon, and without wishing to be unkind, how do YOU know when you’re feeling weird?Leon said:Official 2024 Leon Water Fast Sitrep
40 hours. Am in ketosis. Feel light headed and sleepy and weird
I’ve been reading about fasts. There is quite a literature on fasts, now
It all makes sense from a Darwinian perspective. If you go into a severe fast your body thinks you cannot find anything to hunt kill and eat so it tells the metabolism to adapt
When you have the chance to rest you will rest and nap and conserve energy. But when you do something you do it with total commitment - your body wants you to succeed at hunting. You scan the horizon for prey with extra acuity
Give it a few more days and then all that stuff will kick in big style.0 -
Yup, I don't start eating until around 10ish, but am done by no later than 5pm. Usually a light breakfast and a main meal at about 4pm. That gives your gut a good 16 hours to process what you had and rest itself. Fasting is a proven method, but you don't need to fast for days on end.IanB2 said:
According to that paper, the suggestion is that you get many if not most of the benefits by restricting eating to 10-12 hours per day. So you can breakfast at 8am and have dinner at 6pm, and still qualify - no need to do the silly stuff like trying to live on water only for days?Foxy said:
Yes, there is reasonably good evidence that fasting increases longevity, probably by boosting cellular repair.kjh said:
Interested in the feedback @Leon. I fast when I diet, although not to this scale as it is the only way I can lose weight and I lose lots when I do it as I eat and drink a lot normally, although I do eat very healthily (and when I say a lot I mean a lot). I just cut down to one big meal a day, no nibbles and no alcohol and I do break it for any social event.Leon said:
It’s a good point. I will be specific. I feel a mixture of intense mental lucidity followed by copious yawning and sleepiness - and then back againOldKingCole said:
With the greatest of respect, Leon, and without wishing to be unkind, how do YOU know when you’re feeling weird?Leon said:Official 2024 Leon Water Fast Sitrep
40 hours. Am in ketosis. Feel light headed and sleepy and weird
I’ve been reading about fasts. There is quite a literature on fasts, now
It all makes sense from a Darwinian perspective. If you go into a severe fast your body thinks you cannot find anything to hunt kill and eat so it tells the metabolism to adapt
When you have the chance to rest you will rest and nap and conserve energy. But when you do something you do it with total commitment - your body wants you to succeed at hunting. You scan the horizon for prey with extra acuity
I assumed fasting was not necessarily good for you and I do tend to put the weight back on after a bit (Lost 8 kg prior to my last May cycle ride, 5 of those are back on), but I notice you have said you have read it is good for you. I am interested in knowing more about that?
On a pedantic point I note your Darwinian comments. We may well have evolved out of that by now (or maybe not). We have had generations where the need to do that has gone so it is not a trait that represents the fittest of the species (the survivors) and therefore likely to be passed down as much. I thought the same sometime ago when you compared dogs to wolves. Again dogs have gone through a huge evolutionary change due to domestication and so can't be compared to wolves in behaviour. It is worth noting that sometime ago dog trainers relied on that relationship in the techniques they use. That has gone out of fashion now as not being correct.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8932957/0 -
No, you need to go into ketosis. Day 2 or 3…IanB2 said:
According to that paper, the suggestion is that you get many if not most of the benefits by restricting eating to 10-12 hours per day. So you can breakfast at 8am and have dinner at 6pm, and still qualify - no need to do the silly stuff like trying to live on water only for days?Foxy said:
Yes, there is reasonably good evidence that fasting increases longevity, probably by boosting cellular repair.kjh said:
Interested in the feedback @Leon. I fast when I diet, although not to this scale as it is the only way I can lose weight and I lose lots when I do it as I eat and drink a lot normally, although I do eat very healthily (and when I say a lot I mean a lot). I just cut down to one big meal a day, no nibbles and no alcohol and I do break it for any social event.Leon said:
It’s a good point. I will be specific. I feel a mixture of intense mental lucidity followed by copious yawning and sleepiness - and then back againOldKingCole said:
With the greatest of respect, Leon, and without wishing to be unkind, how do YOU know when you’re feeling weird?Leon said:Official 2024 Leon Water Fast Sitrep
40 hours. Am in ketosis. Feel light headed and sleepy and weird
I’ve been reading about fasts. There is quite a literature on fasts, now
It all makes sense from a Darwinian perspective. If you go into a severe fast your body thinks you cannot find anything to hunt kill and eat so it tells the metabolism to adapt
When you have the chance to rest you will rest and nap and conserve energy. But when you do something you do it with total commitment - your body wants you to succeed at hunting. You scan the horizon for prey with extra acuity
I assumed fasting was not necessarily good for you and I do tend to put the weight back on after a bit (Lost 8 kg prior to my last May cycle ride, 5 of those are back on), but I notice you have said you have read it is good for you. I am interested in knowing more about that?
On a pedantic point I note your Darwinian comments. We may well have evolved out of that by now (or maybe not). We have had generations where the need to do that has gone so it is not a trait that represents the fittest of the species (the survivors) and therefore likely to be passed down as much. I thought the same sometime ago when you compared dogs to wolves. Again dogs have gone through a huge evolutionary change due to domestication and so can't be compared to wolves in behaviour. It is worth noting that sometime ago dog trainers relied on that relationship in the techniques they use. That has gone out of fashion now as not being correct.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8932957/0 -
Daily fasting is good, but 18 or so hours at a time. You just bounce about from one quick fix to the next!Leon said:I
I actively LIKE fastingtwistedfirestopper3 said:.
Mate, what are you doing? Stop with the dieting fads. Eat a regular, balanced diet. Ease up on the booze, do some simple exercise plan like Couch to 5K. It ain't rocket science.Leon said:Official 2024 Leon Water Fast Sitrep
40 hours. Am in ketosis. Feel light headed and sleepy and weird
I feel cleansed. I lose weight. I stop boozing. I detox my liver
And - as Dr @Foxy nofes - there is now an ample literature on the many benefits of fasting. Autophagy!
See also the literature on increased longevity in animals with severely reduced calorific intake
We aren’t meant for a life of easeful plenty with three square sugary meals a day. We are built for a life on the savage plains - eat an antelope once every 3 days. Go without at other times
Cutting out ultra processed shite is definitely a wise strategy, though.0 -
Just over a week to go to the Taiwan presidential election.
Anyone betting (& if so, where) ?0 -
We have those already. There are no strikes yet in Wales for example.eek said:
Imagine this time next year (without the strikes) the NHS would still be at breaking point with 24+ hours waits for bedsDecrepiterJohnL said:
Lingering on has its own benefits, though, and not just extra months of chauffeurs and country houses. My prediction remains that January 2025 is still on (or will be brought back to) the table because a Christmas campaign favours the Conservatives by neutralising Opposition parties' better ground games, and it gives more time for something to turn up.RochdalePioneers said:On topic, I regretfully join those disagreeing with Mike's piece. We have just over 11 months until parliament legally dissolves itself. An election isn't a choice - like death it is an inevitability.
Tories and their fellow travellers remain occasionally optimistic and often argumentative ("you're all the same as us, Sunak has no plan" etc). But generally realist in understanding: its over.
Even if Sunak came up with new pledges for 2024 to replace the failed pledges of 2023, nobody is listening. Nor are there realistic signs of significant improvement in the areas that Tories supposedly focus on - indeed the metrics all show a worsening position.
Sunak's only choice is when and how. And yesterday's fun opens the door to May being the positive choice, the unexpected surprise. Calling an election on his terms off the back of a winter offensive and giveaway budget. Or linger on until expiry.0 -
That’s an insane amount to lose in 4 days, even if you are just shedding water!RochdalePioneers said:
I've lost 4 kg in 4 days. I am not doing anything crazy like a 5 day fast...Leon said:Official 2024 Leon Water Fast Sitrep
40 hours. Am in ketosis. Feel light headed and sleepy and weird0 -
You and Mike may be saying the same thing - reading the thread, he may mean hard to argue as in 'hard to argue against'.SirNorfolkPassmore said:With the greatest respect, this is nonsense.
It is perfectly appropriate and very effective politics to hound Sunak throughout 2024 with the charge that he is bottling it, and running scared of the electorate.
OGH says, "It is hard to argue that has Sunak bottled it when it is blindingly obvious that his party would face near-certain defeat."
No, Mike. It is all too easy to argue that Sunak has bottled it due to his fear of being judged by the electorate, and it's good politics.0 -
Read the paperLeon said:
No, you need to go into ketosis. Day 2 or 3…IanB2 said:
According to that paper, the suggestion is that you get many if not most of the benefits by restricting eating to 10-12 hours per day. So you can breakfast at 8am and have dinner at 6pm, and still qualify - no need to do the silly stuff like trying to live on water only for days?Foxy said:
Yes, there is reasonably good evidence that fasting increases longevity, probably by boosting cellular repair.kjh said:
Interested in the feedback @Leon. I fast when I diet, although not to this scale as it is the only way I can lose weight and I lose lots when I do it as I eat and drink a lot normally, although I do eat very healthily (and when I say a lot I mean a lot). I just cut down to one big meal a day, no nibbles and no alcohol and I do break it for any social event.Leon said:
It’s a good point. I will be specific. I feel a mixture of intense mental lucidity followed by copious yawning and sleepiness - and then back againOldKingCole said:
With the greatest of respect, Leon, and without wishing to be unkind, how do YOU know when you’re feeling weird?Leon said:Official 2024 Leon Water Fast Sitrep
40 hours. Am in ketosis. Feel light headed and sleepy and weird
I’ve been reading about fasts. There is quite a literature on fasts, now
It all makes sense from a Darwinian perspective. If you go into a severe fast your body thinks you cannot find anything to hunt kill and eat so it tells the metabolism to adapt
When you have the chance to rest you will rest and nap and conserve energy. But when you do something you do it with total commitment - your body wants you to succeed at hunting. You scan the horizon for prey with extra acuity
I assumed fasting was not necessarily good for you and I do tend to put the weight back on after a bit (Lost 8 kg prior to my last May cycle ride, 5 of those are back on), but I notice you have said you have read it is good for you. I am interested in knowing more about that?
On a pedantic point I note your Darwinian comments. We may well have evolved out of that by now (or maybe not). We have had generations where the need to do that has gone so it is not a trait that represents the fittest of the species (the survivors) and therefore likely to be passed down as much. I thought the same sometime ago when you compared dogs to wolves. Again dogs have gone through a huge evolutionary change due to domestication and so can't be compared to wolves in behaviour. It is worth noting that sometime ago dog trainers relied on that relationship in the techniques they use. That has gone out of fashion now as not being correct.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8932957/0 -
Mercantilism vs globalisation is a really difficult economic dilemma because there's plenty of statistical evidence that can support either position. In favour of mercantilism you have multiple economic indicators in the West showing that real wages and standard of living improvements have stagnated for low and middle income earners since the globalisation of production. In favour of globalisation you have uncontestable evidence that the world as a whole has got inordinately richer and more comfortable in the same era.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Not to mention some of our competitors (or allies) are ahead of us, in terms of both protectionism and subsidies for domestic production. Hail to the Chief!Richard_Tyndall said:
I think this is spot on. Clearly there are some important benefits to the current globalised free market model but to my mind they are far outweighed by the risks and costs in terms of sustainability, security and self sufficiency.RochdalePioneers said:
The issues are global and go way beyond national politics. In essence the free market let rip and decided (understandably) to stick production into cheaper markets. Which has damaging effects on the western countries who grew rich from manufacturing.JosiasJessop said:American weakness risks leading us towards a wider worldwide conflagration.
And the weakness is on the side of both a Republican party playing stupid partisan games, and a US president who is unwilling or unable to sell the risks to the American public.
There are several areas of obvious ongoing conflict:
*) Russia - Ukraine.
*) Israel - Gaza - West Bank
*) Houtis - Red Sea
*) Iran - everyone
Then there are the potential ones:
*) North Korea - South Korea
*) China - Taiwan
The US - and even the West - cannot hope to deal with all of these at once, without going onto a war footing. And we have sleepwalked into a situation where we have allowed smaller conflicts to grow.
We are living in very dangerous times. And I cannot see a Biden 2 or Trump 2 presidency dealing with them in any way effectively.
If America or Britain or Germany want to stay both competitive and prosperous, they need to invest heavily to onshore manufacturing. We are all more expensive than China, but we can get cheaper by investing in skills and technology.
A change from laisse-faire free marketism into a more mercantilist position is the Brexit that a lot of people in the producer sector- farming and fishing as examples - voted for...
I think it's reasonable to conclude the last couple of decades of globalisation were good for the world's population (putting aside ecological considerations for a moment) and bad for the Western working class. But there's then a mixed picture of evidence on mercantilist policies - rich countries with more protectionist rules generally faring less well on average than those with open economies, with the partial exception of major natural resource exporters, but the picture also being messy because of bloc-level internal free trade with external mercantilism as per the USA and EU.
So what's the policy answer to that? Difficult.2 -
I signed up yesterday to Microsoft to get word/excel etc on my computer as my previous subscription expired. Did the £5.99 a month programme. Then the computer spent about an hour 'updating'. I subsequently took it out of the house this morning to work in a cafe and it didn't let me in to my windows account when logging in because I was not online. Then I got online via my phone and because it is a new internet connection it was designated as 'suspicious' requiring me to log in via an email to a backup email account, which doesn't exist. So it seems like, thanks to signing up to Microsoft to get word/excel, I am now locked out of my computer unless I can somehow contact microsoft to unlock the account... looking forward to that.
2 -
My own experience of trying fasting is that it is incompatible with a life where you actually do something. I become like I am when I'm very tired; my daily cycle of energy highs and lows becomes more pronounced, to the extent that I don't want to drive once in a low. Perhaps that's just me.TimS said:
Fasting is more interesting than just having a balanced diet. I have a good friend who just fasts as a matter of course from Sunday night until Tuesday morning every week. He says he looks forward to it as a jump start to the working week. Picked it up during a few years in the Middle East.Leon said:I
I actively LIKE fastingtwistedfirestopper3 said:.
Mate, what are you doing? Stop with the dieting fads. Eat a regular, balanced diet. Ease up on the booze, do some simple exercise plan like Couch to 5K. It ain't rocket science.Leon said:Official 2024 Leon Water Fast Sitrep
40 hours. Am in ketosis. Feel light headed and sleepy and weird
I feel cleansed. I lose weight. I stop boozing. I detox my liver
And - as Dr @Foxy nofes - there is now an ample literature on the many benefits of fasting. Autophagy!
See also the literature on increased longevity in animals with severely reduced calorific intake
We aren’t meant for a life of easeful plenty with three square sugary meals a day. We are built for a life on the savage plains - eat an antelope once every 3 days. Go without at other times
I've not ever gone that far with fasting but am partial to the occasional 20 hours or so without food.0 -
As I have said upthread this is totally wrong. Intense fasting plus exercise plus sensible whole foods was how I permanently (for 15 years) lost 30kgtwistedfirestopper3 said:
Daily fasting is good, but 18 or so hours at a time. You just bounce about from one quick fix to the next!Leon said:I
I actively LIKE fastingtwistedfirestopper3 said:.
Mate, what are you doing? Stop with the dieting fads. Eat a regular, balanced diet. Ease up on the booze, do some simple exercise plan like Couch to 5K. It ain't rocket science.Leon said:Official 2024 Leon Water Fast Sitrep
40 hours. Am in ketosis. Feel light headed and sleepy and weird
I feel cleansed. I lose weight. I stop boozing. I detox my liver
And - as Dr @Foxy nofes - there is now an ample literature on the many benefits of fasting. Autophagy!
See also the literature on increased longevity in animals with severely reduced calorific intake
We aren’t meant for a life of easeful plenty with three square sugary meals a day. We are built for a life on the savage plains - eat an antelope once every 3 days. Go without at other times
Cutting out ultra processed shite is definitely a wise strategy, though.
I’m now trying to repeat that
Hello and welcome to PB Weight Watchers (with Fasters Anonymous)0 -
You're approaching it from the other end.RochdalePioneers said:
I've lost 4 kg in 4 days. I am not doing anything crazy like a 5 day fast...Leon said:Official 2024 Leon Water Fast Sitrep
40 hours. Am in ketosis. Feel light headed and sleepy and weird
Increasing calories out, rather than restricting those going in (or perhaps both).
The exercise is also building muscle - increasing your metabolism.0 -
Some excess water and a good crap and you are thereLeon said:
That’s an insane amount to lose in 4 days, even if you are just shedding water!RochdalePioneers said:
I've lost 4 kg in 4 days. I am not doing anything crazy like a 5 day fast...Leon said:Official 2024 Leon Water Fast Sitrep
40 hours. Am in ketosis. Feel light headed and sleepy and weird0 -
I still think think Sunak is trying to play head games and that a May election remains the most likely.2
-
I think some of the facts are right, but then some of the interpretations are dodgy. He has a list of top ten universities by growth in overseas student numbers to try to illustrate his point about minor universities. Yet #1 on the list is Ulster, who are good, and I think four of the others are Russell Group.algarkirk said:Matt Goodwin on migration with a link to some updated statistical and detail including the tactics of minor universities to raise cash from overseas students. No idea if it's accurate:
https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/the-big-tory-lie?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=1mnpci&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
It is true, however, that all universities seek to raise cash from overseas students, and indeed that this is deliberate government policy. The UK government does not want to pay universities the money they need for teaching home students or for doing research.1 -
Well done. Follow the correct advice around these things please.Leon said:Official 2024 Leon Water Fast Sitrep
40 hours. Am in ketosis. Feel light headed and sleepy and weird
Ok, inferring from other posts that you *are* having water not fasting from it.
0 -
I detect the familiar moaning of an academic with an increased teaching load after his Pro-Vice Chancellor told him the university had to take more students to stay afloat.ydoethur said:
For a university lecturer, he doesn't seem to know much about HE.algarkirk said:Matt Goodwin on migration with a link to some updated statistical and detail including the tactics of minor universities to raise cash from overseas students. No idea if it's accurate:
https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/the-big-tory-lie?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=1mnpci&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
For starters, his obsessive repeating of 'elite universities' is BS and unless he"s stupid he knows it. Even the best universities, including Cambridge, have wide variations in quality between faculties.
For another his 'MAs of typically less than eighteen months' - well, yes. Typically they last one year. Why is that a bad thing? Does he want them wasting time on write up years with no funding to support them?
'PhDs at elite universities' - here he does have more of a point becuase it is actually better to do research degrees like a PhD or even an MPhil at a research focussed university, for all sorts of practical reasons (not least, the extra resources available). But that also means they would be here longer, and he was saying they shouldn't be.
(It's even more puzzling given he teaches at the University of Kent which, like Bath or Aberystwyth, is a research uni but not Russell Group, and has 41% international intake. So he's actually one of the worst offenders by his own criteria. I wonder if the Pro-Vice Chancellor might call him in for a quiet word.)1 -
I suspect that floating "an Autumn election" is precisely to keep the options open. It takes the sting out of the "bottling it" accusation, as per the thread header, and absolutely turns the tables on that accusation if there is a positive bump after the budget and they see that as the "least worst" time to go to the country.Cleitophon said:I still think think Sunak is trying to play head games and that a May election remains the most likely.
I still think the Tories lose badly either way. <= ALERT. THIS SENTENCE IS A HOSTAGE TO FORTUNE2 -
Always weigh yourself at roughly the same time of day, naked and after doing your dirty business or a bunch of variables can bugger up your weight monitoring.malcolmg said:
Some excess water and a good crap and you are thereLeon said:
That’s an insane amount to lose in 4 days, even if you are just shedding water!RochdalePioneers said:
I've lost 4 kg in 4 days. I am not doing anything crazy like a 5 day fast...Leon said:Official 2024 Leon Water Fast Sitrep
40 hours. Am in ketosis. Feel light headed and sleepy and weird1 -
I’ve read probably 20 papers on fasting. AndIanB2 said:
Read the paperLeon said:
No, you need to go into ketosis. Day 2 or 3…IanB2 said:
According to that paper, the suggestion is that you get many if not most of the benefits by restricting eating to 10-12 hours per day. So you can breakfast at 8am and have dinner at 6pm, and still qualify - no need to do the silly stuff like trying to live on water only for days?Foxy said:
Yes, there is reasonably good evidence that fasting increases longevity, probably by boosting cellular repair.kjh said:
Interested in the feedback @Leon. I fast when I diet, although not to this scale as it is the only way I can lose weight and I lose lots when I do it as I eat and drink a lot normally, although I do eat very healthily (and when I say a lot I mean a lot). I just cut down to one big meal a day, no nibbles and no alcohol and I do break it for any social event.Leon said:
It’s a good point. I will be specific. I feel a mixture of intense mental lucidity followed by copious yawning and sleepiness - and then back againOldKingCole said:
With the greatest of respect, Leon, and without wishing to be unkind, how do YOU know when you’re feeling weird?Leon said:Official 2024 Leon Water Fast Sitrep
40 hours. Am in ketosis. Feel light headed and sleepy and weird
I’ve been reading about fasts. There is quite a literature on fasts, now
It all makes sense from a Darwinian perspective. If you go into a severe fast your body thinks you cannot find anything to hunt kill and eat so it tells the metabolism to adapt
When you have the chance to rest you will rest and nap and conserve energy. But when you do something you do it with total commitment - your body wants you to succeed at hunting. You scan the horizon for prey with extra acuity
I assumed fasting was not necessarily good for you and I do tend to put the weight back on after a bit (Lost 8 kg prior to my last May cycle ride, 5 of those are back on), but I notice you have said you have read it is good for you. I am interested in knowing more about that?
On a pedantic point I note your Darwinian comments. We may well have evolved out of that by now (or maybe not). We have had generations where the need to do that has gone so it is not a trait that represents the fittest of the species (the survivors) and therefore likely to be passed down as much. I thought the same sometime ago when you compared dogs to wolves. Again dogs have gone through a huge evolutionary change due to domestication and so can't be compared to wolves in behaviour. It is worth noting that sometime ago dog trainers relied on that relationship in the techniques they use. That has gone out of fashion now as not being correct.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8932957/
multiple articles - popular and scholarly
It actually interests me above and beyond weight loss. It is, of course, a known spiritual technique. It is also used by Silicon Valley tech bros when they have a particularly hard problem to solve
Don’t eat for 48 hours. The brain clears and focuses on that tasty gazelle in the far far distance0 -
Yes, eating within 8 hours, and fasting for 16 per day works well.twistedfirestopper3 said:
Yup, I don't start eating until around 10ish, but am done by no later than 5pm. Usually a light breakfast and a main meal at about 4pm. That gives your gut a good 16 hours to process what you had and rest itself. Fasting is a proven method, but you don't need to fast for days on end.IanB2 said:
According to that paper, the suggestion is that you get many if not most of the benefits by restricting eating to 10-12 hours per day. So you can breakfast at 8am and have dinner at 6pm, and still qualify - no need to do the silly stuff like trying to live on water only for days?Foxy said:
Yes, there is reasonably good evidence that fasting increases longevity, probably by boosting cellular repair.kjh said:
Interested in the feedback @Leon. I fast when I diet, although not to this scale as it is the only way I can lose weight and I lose lots when I do it as I eat and drink a lot normally, although I do eat very healthily (and when I say a lot I mean a lot). I just cut down to one big meal a day, no nibbles and no alcohol and I do break it for any social event.Leon said:
It’s a good point. I will be specific. I feel a mixture of intense mental lucidity followed by copious yawning and sleepiness - and then back againOldKingCole said:
With the greatest of respect, Leon, and without wishing to be unkind, how do YOU know when you’re feeling weird?Leon said:Official 2024 Leon Water Fast Sitrep
40 hours. Am in ketosis. Feel light headed and sleepy and weird
I’ve been reading about fasts. There is quite a literature on fasts, now
It all makes sense from a Darwinian perspective. If you go into a severe fast your body thinks you cannot find anything to hunt kill and eat so it tells the metabolism to adapt
When you have the chance to rest you will rest and nap and conserve energy. But when you do something you do it with total commitment - your body wants you to succeed at hunting. You scan the horizon for prey with extra acuity
I assumed fasting was not necessarily good for you and I do tend to put the weight back on after a bit (Lost 8 kg prior to my last May cycle ride, 5 of those are back on), but I notice you have said you have read it is good for you. I am interested in knowing more about that?
On a pedantic point I note your Darwinian comments. We may well have evolved out of that by now (or maybe not). We have had generations where the need to do that has gone so it is not a trait that represents the fittest of the species (the survivors) and therefore likely to be passed down as much. I thought the same sometime ago when you compared dogs to wolves. Again dogs have gone through a huge evolutionary change due to domestication and so can't be compared to wolves in behaviour. It is worth noting that sometime ago dog trainers relied on that relationship in the techniques they use. That has gone out of fashion now as not being correct.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8932957/
There are mental benefits too, which is why some form of fasting is pretty much a universal feature of religions. Muslims find Ramadan very spiritual for example, though not unusual to gain weight from feasting. It does rather upset diabetes quite a lot.
Biologically we did evolve for constant grazing rather than intermittent feasting, as that is what other primates do. We are not dogs or lions. The fasting of primates is largely due to lack of opportunity for feasting.
We do have a craving for high calorie food in a way that we just don't get for vegetables, though it is possible to discipline oneself away from these. There is even a hypothesis that the proclivity for diabetes T2 in South Asians is because of its biological advantage in putting on weight quickly when food is abundant in order to last the period when it isn't. The argument is that in countries with more perennial food supplies such as Europe, that is less the case.2 -
I'm in the whole foods, condensed eating hours, sensible exercise camp.I'm fitter, healthier, lift more, run and walk further and mentally happier than I'd say I've ever been in my life. At 57! Just means I mustn't waste the next 57!Leon said:
As I have said upthread this is totally wrong. Intense fasting plus exercise plus sensible whole foods was how I permanently (for 15 years) lost 30kgtwistedfirestopper3 said:
Daily fasting is good, but 18 or so hours at a time. You just bounce about from one quick fix to the next!Leon said:I
I actively LIKE fastingtwistedfirestopper3 said:.
Mate, what are you doing? Stop with the dieting fads. Eat a regular, balanced diet. Ease up on the booze, do some simple exercise plan like Couch to 5K. It ain't rocket science.Leon said:Official 2024 Leon Water Fast Sitrep
40 hours. Am in ketosis. Feel light headed and sleepy and weird
I feel cleansed. I lose weight. I stop boozing. I detox my liver
And - as Dr @Foxy nofes - there is now an ample literature on the many benefits of fasting. Autophagy!
See also the literature on increased longevity in animals with severely reduced calorific intake
We aren’t meant for a life of easeful plenty with three square sugary meals a day. We are built for a life on the savage plains - eat an antelope once every 3 days. Go without at other times
Cutting out ultra processed shite is definitely a wise strategy, though.
I’m now trying to repeat that
Hello and welcome to PB Weight Watchers (with Fasters Anonymous)1 -
And the Middle East is a bastion of press freedom.Theuniondivvie said:I see it’s a day for persuading folk that The Telegraph (& its attached wart, The Spectator) is a noble, shining, independent jewel in the crown of British journalism.
Good luck with that.0 -
I'm currently eating a fried breakfast. Mmm.3
