politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The opening prices on the GE2015 spread betting markets hav

Just like the old days...
have my first SPIN spread with a buy on the Conservatives.
First moves - UKIP and Tories up one from starting prices.

This more or less tallies with my assessment, so it's no bet for the moment from me.

So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

OK.

The government and Gove in particular is in deep trouble in the Commons with their decision to ditch a separate vote on the European Arrest Warrant. Every speaker is castigating them, including Jacob Rees-Mogg.

Jacob Rees Mogg "This is a sorry day for this government..."

antifrank said:

So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

OK.

I suppose the other side of that is why is it acceptable if not hilarious for gayer Matt Lucas to use the term but nobody else can ? Pehaps you can explain.

Brilliant !!!

Yvette has a stormer..... time to become the LotO asap!!

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Or the Conservatives...

The Conservatives still have time for improvements. Labour has been in decline since spring 2013 and it's hard to see how/why they would recover between now and polling day.

Rees mogg is slaughtering May here

"Tyranny... Underhand...crooked"

GIN1138 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Or the Conservatives...

The Conservatives still have time for improvements. Labour has been in decline since spring 2013 and it's hard to see how/why they would recover between now and polling day.

The prices are factoring in some Labour decline in the polls.

isam said:

Rees mogg is slaughtering May here

"Tyranny... Underhand...crooked"

Theresa May = Vidkun Quisling?

volcanopete said:

Hugely incisive analysis by Danny Blanchflower

The first 3 words of that sentence are negated by the last 2

OblitusSumMe said:

(OT) Have they cut off your ear with a scythe yet?

volcanopete said:

Hugely incisive analysis by Danny Blanchflower.

I stopped reading after this. The man is basically wrong about everything, 5 million unemployed he said famously.

OblitusSumMe said:

"On the morning of election day in 2010 you could have bought LAB at 222 seats with SportingIndex. They got 258 seats which mean that those who’s put place a bet at that level won the difference multiplied by their stake. In this case 36."

Mike, do you have a record of what the spreads were for all the parties on the morning of the election?

With SPIN Cons were around 318, Lab 217, LD 80

Tom Clark ‏@guardian_clark 17m17 minutes ago
Titbit in advance of Gdn/ICM poll: In Feb 1988, ICM recorded the joint Lab-Con-LibDem vote share at 100%

UKIP and Green surge?

volcanopete said:

Hugely incisive analysis by Danny Blanchflower.Every economic indicator points to an alarming correction/collapse to take place around Spring 2014.Osborne's long-term economic scam is likely to hit the buffers.Deflation becomes the threat.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/david-blanchflower/david-blanchflower-economic-sentiment-has-turned--bad-news-for-george-osborne-9850240.html

Isn't that the same bloke who told us we were in line for 5 million unemployed? Maybe his credibility is not too high.

Ishmael_X said:

antifrank said:

So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

OK.

She is a bit thick, not very nice and it's borderline whether she should have been excused. There are people like that in all parties. There were disproportionately more of them in ukip when it was a small fringe party. But your "Ooooh, racism n xenophobia" card just isn't the ace of trumps you seem to think it is.

It was a relatively minor incident. But one of those relatively minor incidents that's very telling.

I'm particularly interested in the desperate attempts by the kippers to defend the indefensible. I don't think the bulk of UKIP supporters are racist. But I do think they are too tolerant of casual racism and they probably would not be if they did not have the impassioned zeal of converts.

It's useful when assessing the likely behaviour of kippers and kipper-flirters in the coming months.

FPT

TheWatcher said:

malcolmg said:

Bond_James_Bond said:

malcolmg said:

RobC said:

john_zims said:

@Casino_Royale

'Someone linked on the last thread that there are 'secret' plans to further slash law & order and defence next year?'

What's the problem?

The UK has the most generous legal aid system by a country mile in the entire EU and our military spending is the highest of any EU country and we have the third largest military force in NATO. .

On legal aid I've been told by lawyer friends that it's been savagely cut back in the last year or so?

There was a lawyer on radio Scotland on Sunday whinging that he was only getting £48 an hour from the public to defend the great unwashed nowadays and what a travesty of justice it was to expect him to have to toil for such a pittance.

How mean of the English not to give the whining Scotchman more English money! His arm must ache from holding his hand out for so long!

You thick stupid bag of vomit , it is Scottish Legal system and Scottish money.

So he should have written 'How mean of the Scottish not to give the whining Scotchman more Scottish money! His arm must ache from holding his hand out for so long!'

Is that better Malky, you tartan cockroach?

sick degenerate pervert boy comes out from under his rock, still woofing cretin

Like the idea of "political vetting".

JohnLoony said:

OblitusSumMe said:

(OT) Have they cut off your ear with a scythe yet?

They did decide to give me antibiotics in the end. Massive great big capsules so that you know you are taking Proper Medicine.

"Friends" on facebook have been trying to cheer me up by telling me about all the amazing complications I might suffer from, such as Mastoiditis.

Sean_F said:

antifrank said:

So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

OK.

I don't think "Little Britain" is racist.

No its satirising racism and kippers fall for it.

Interesting overall result, implied though. Using top end of ranges:

Lab 296 + LD 29 = 325. They'd need S&C with (presumably) SNP or DUP to even make a coalition work. In the context of DevoMax negotiations ongoing, it'd be interesting to have SLAB and SNP in the same camp...*

Looks like the implied outcome is minority government *and* most likely a repeat election within 12 months (less clear on during 2015). I can't see people bother to do a formal Coalition (with all the compromises it entails) if they need Coalition + S&C to make it work.

Presumably, a second election would benefit Lab/Con most from a resources/incumbent government perspective. Assuming that both and/or either of them keep their cool after a perceived defeat and manage to hold themselves together in anticipation of a re-run.


(* numbers are even worse for the Conservatives, so haven't bothered to work them out)

Flightpath said:

Sean_F said:

antifrank said:

So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

OK.

I don't think "Little Britain" is racist.

Sean_F said:

antifrank said:

So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

OK.

I don't think "Little Britain" is racist.

No its satirising racism and kippers fall for it.

So it is fine to be racist as long as you call it satire.

antifrank said:

Ishmael_X said:

antifrank said:

So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

OK.

She is a bit thick, not very nice and it's borderline whether she should have been excused. There are people like that in all parties. There were disproportionately more of them in ukip when it was a small fringe party. But your "Ooooh, racism n xenophobia" card just isn't the ace of trumps you seem to think it is.

It was a relatively minor incident. But one of those relatively minor incidents that's very telling.

I'm particularly interested in the desperate attempts by the kippers to defend the indefensible. I don't think the bulk of UKIP supporters are racist. But I do think they are too tolerant of casual racism and they probably would not be if they did not have the impassioned zeal of converts.

It's useful when assessing the likely behaviour of kippers and kipper-flirters in the coming months.

I don't like casual racism, someone I know seems to think I don't mind/agree with his sentiments. I don't.

However, I know/have known lots of working class, WWC if you will, they will F and blind all day long, and make racist comments, but the funny thing is, half their friends are Asian, black etc. You figure it out.

Edit. When I say 'they' where I grew up I didn't see any racism and it was quite mixed. My mother would never have put up with it! I'm talking about 'some' people.

TheScreamingEagles said:

OblitusSumMe said:

"On the morning of election day in 2010 you could have bought LAB at 222 seats with SportingIndex. They got 258 seats which mean that those who’s put place a bet at that level won the difference multiplied by their stake. In this case 36."

Mike, do you have a record of what the spreads were for all the parties on the morning of the election?

With SPIN Cons were around 318, Lab 217, LD 80

Thanks - so looks like punters overestimated the potential for radical change. Will this time be different?

@Andrew_ComRes: RT @itvnews: ComRes/ITV Index Poll: Half of British public think Ed Miliband would be a bad Prime Minister http://t.co/7xjM8smBG6

Scott_P said:

@ICMResearch: Latest ICM @Telegraph #wisdom index poll - Con 31%, Lab 30%, LD 13%, UKIP 16%, Oth 10% - http://t.co/WBMb09yGSF #mrx

WI not a real poll poll gives EICIPM of 308/271/41

Artist said:

Tom Clark ‏@guardian_clark 17m17 minutes ago
Titbit in advance of Gdn/ICM poll: In Feb 1988, ICM recorded the joint Lab-Con-LibDem vote share at 100%

UKIP and Green surge?

Was it 1988 or 1989 that the Greens did really well in the Euros?

*innocent face*

Alanbrooke said:

malcolmg said:

Flightpath said:

Sean_F said:

antifrank said:

So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

OK.

I don't think "Little Britain" is racist.

Sean_F said:

antifrank said:

So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

OK.

I don't think "Little Britain" is racist.

No its satirising racism and kippers fall for it.

So it is fine to be racist as long as you call it satire.

The man's a turnip malc.

I'm sitting here watching The Quiet Man on Film 4 trying to figure out if I should be violently offend or if it's satire or if one or two PBers have lost the plot and need to get out more.

Begorrah.

You just prove that kippers from Farage down have no sense of self awareness. Thanks for confirming to me what sort of people you are.
You will be condoning profiteers on the Tower poppies next.
Its really quite pathetic seeing kippers stick their heads so far up their backsides using the BBC and its absurd comedians to defend the gratuitous use of a racist slur (about her own supporters!).

It is of course not 'fine to be racist as long as you call it satire'. But that is not what happened. The programme was attacking casual racism (not in a very brilliant way IMHO) indeed the fact that kippers cannot see through that shows how poorly designed the 'comedy' was.

OblitusSumMe said:

JohnLoony said:

OblitusSumMe said:

(OT) Have they cut off your ear with a scythe yet?

They did decide to give me antibiotics in the end. Massive great big capsules so that you know you are taking Proper Medicine.

"Friends" on facebook have been trying to cheer me up by telling me about all the amazing complications I might suffer from, such as Mastoiditis.

It could be worse...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/celebritynews/11203727/Shocked-Katie-Melua-found-spider-living-in-her-ear.html

Ishmael_X said:

volcanopete said:

Hugely incisive analysis by Danny Blanchflower.Every economic indicator points to an alarming correction/collapse to take place around Spring 2014.Osborne's long-term economic scam is likely to hit the buffers.Deflation becomes the threat.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/david-blanchflower/david-blanchflower-economic-sentiment-has-turned--bad-news-for-george-osborne-9850240.html

In my time-stream it has already been Spring 2014. He quotes four metrics, not "Every economic indicator" and he predicts a slowdown, not "an alarming correction/collapse" - which in any case is usually a cliche designed to terrify the Daily Mail-reading stock market speculator.

BTW, the corporate asset transfer market has slowed significantly in the last 6 weeks.

That's usually a pretty good, if opaque, leading indicator

JonnyJimmy said:

Question for the kippers:

What if Mike Read had done a Bhangra song instead of the calypso song, and had sung it in a mock Indian accent. Would that have been just as acceptable to you?

The ukip winter festival single


http://youtu.be/oA0aikxt-r8

Tory majority out to 6.8:

http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.101416490

Flightpath said:

Alanbrooke said:

malcolmg said:

Flightpath said:

Sean_F said:

antifrank said:

So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

OK.

I don't think "Little Britain" is racist.

Sean_F said:

antifrank said:

So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

OK.

I don't think "Little Britain" is racist.

No its satirising racism and kippers fall for it.

So it is fine to be racist as long as you call it satire.

The man's a turnip malc.

I'm sitting here watching The Quiet Man on Film 4 trying to figure out if I should be violently offend or if it's satire or if one or two PBers have lost the plot and need to get out more.

Begorrah.

You just prove that kippers from Farage down have no sense of self awareness. Thanks for confirming to me what sort of people you are.
You will be condoning profiteers on the Tower poppies next.
Its really quite pathetic seeing kippers stick their heads so far up their backsides using the BBC and its absurd comedians to defend the gratuitous use of a racist slur (about her own supporters!).

It is of course not 'fine to be racist as long as you call it satire'. But that is not what happened. The programme was attacking casual racism (not in a very brilliant way IMHO) indeed the fact that kippers cannot see through that shows how poorly designed the 'comedy' was.

Was the programme tackling casual racism?? How?

"One in three UK jobs will be performed by machine in as little as 20 years"

Didn't they say the same thing on 'Tomorrow's World' some 30 years ago..?

No vote on EAW

Cameron gone back on his word.

Or just another lie

Swiss_Bob said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Question for the kippers:

What if Mike Read had done a Bhangra song instead of the calypso song, and had sung it in a mock Indian accent. Would that have been just as acceptable to you?

Are white people with dreadlocks racist.

That's 'cultural appropriation' isn't it?

What about citizen Khan where a UK born bloke puts on a pakistani accent ?

Is he a racist, an uncle tom, highly amusing in a post modernist ironical sense or some guy who sees a way of making some cash ?

How does this work? If I think UKIP are going to win 20 seats, do I buy or sell now, or do I have to wait until the page is showing UKIP on 20 seats (if that ever happens)?

ICM Guardian

Con 31 (nc) Lab 32 (-3) LD 11 (nc) UKIP 14 (nc) Greens 6 (+2)

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/10/icm-guardian-poll-support-labour-drops-criticism-ed-miliband

If we've got cheap robots I don't think we'll be worrying whether we have jobs or not.

We'll be worrying about what the people who own the robots have in mind for the rest of us.