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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The opening prices on the GE2015 spread betting markets have LAB 18 seats ahead of CON but well short of a majority

For me political vetting is about the spreads where things like commons seats are traded like stocks and share and where the more you are right the more you win.

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GIN1138

Not a great starting position for Lab...

Baskerville

Just like the old days...
have my first SPIN spread with a buy on the Conservatives.
First moves - UKIP and Tories up one from starting prices.

Sunil_Prasannan

Or the Conservatives...

Pulpstar

This more or less tallies with my assessment, so it's no bet for the moment from me.

OblitusSumMe

Liberal Democrats in double figures two Ashcroft Polls in a row and Labour under 30% too? Cor.

I guess everyone will have to stop complaining about how "volatile" the Ashcroft polls are now. I wonder what the probabilities on this sort of no-change poll are?

AlastairMeeks

So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

OK.

FrancisUrquhart

Minutes later the CBI slammed Miliband’s whole speech:

“Labour’s tendency to market intervention could deter investment. We believe open markets are the best way to deliver growth for all.”

Strange, didn't hear that mentioned at all on R5 in their reports on todays outing at the CBI. It was all about how wrong Cameron was on everything, even when the head of the CBI came on said he backed Cameron approach on the EU.

AndyJS

The government and Gove in particular is in deep trouble in the Commons with their decision to ditch a separate vote on the European Arrest Warrant. Every speaker is castigating them, including Jacob Rees-Mogg.

MarkSenior

On the figures for spreads given I would buy Lib Dems and sell SNP and UKIP

isam

Jacob Rees Mogg "This is a sorry day for this government..."

Sunil_Prasannan

antifrank said:

So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

OK.

Is it your line that it's OK for the BBC to be racist, but not OK for UKIP?

Alanbrooke

antifrank said:

So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

OK.

I suppose the other side of that is why is it acceptable if not hilarious for gayer Matt Lucas to use the term but nobody else can ? Pehaps you can explain.

Sunil_Prasannan

OblitusSumMe said:

Liberal Democrats in double figures two Ashcroft Polls in a row and Labour under 30% too? Cor.

I guess everyone will have to stop complaining about how "volatile" the Ashcroft polls are now. I wonder what the probabilities on this sort of no-change poll are?

Ashcroft samples are generally around 50-75% the size of other polls. Just sayin'.

Scrapheap_as_was

Brilliant !!!

Yvette has a stormer..... time to become the LotO asap!!

Sean_F

AndyJS said:

The government and Gove in particular is in deep trouble in the Commons with their decision to ditch a separate vote on the European Arrest Warrant. Every speaker is castigating them, including Jacob Rees-Mogg.

Given that they were going to win the vote, why did the drop it?

GIN1138

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Or the Conservatives...

The Conservatives still have time for improvements. Labour has been in decline since spring 2013 and it's hard to see how/why they would recover between now and polling day.

OblitusSumMe

"On the morning of election day in 2010 you could have bought LAB at 222 seats with SportingIndex. They got 258 seats which mean that those who’s put place a bet at that level won the difference multiplied by their stake. In this case 36."

Mike, do you have a record of what the spreads were for all the parties on the morning of the election?

isam

Rees mogg is slaughtering May here

"Tyranny... Underhand...crooked"

Sean_F

antifrank said:

So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

OK.

I don't think "Little Britain" is racist.

Pulpstar

GIN1138 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Or the Conservatives...

The Conservatives still have time for improvements. Labour has been in decline since spring 2013 and it's hard to see how/why they would recover between now and polling day.

The prices are factoring in some Labour decline in the polls.

volcanopete

Hugely incisive analysis by Danny Blanchflower.Every economic indicator points to an alarming correction/collapse to take place around Spring 2014.Osborne's long-term economic scam is likely to hit the buffers.Deflation becomes the threat.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/david-blanchflower/david-blanchflower-economic-sentiment-has-turned--bad-news-for-george-osborne-9850240.html

TGOHF

So a massive disparity between Sporting Index and Baxter.

Pulpstar

Selling UKIP on these spreads is a pretty risky strategy I think.

Sunil_Prasannan

isam said:

Rees mogg is slaughtering May here

"Tyranny... Underhand...crooked"

Theresa May = Vidkun Quisling?

Peter_the_Punter

Great to see SPIN back in the biz.

There has obviously been quite a bit of trading already. UKIP are up to 11.5, Con have inched forward and Labour down a bit.

Even at the revised price, UKIP would be a buy. It's already looking unlikely they will win fewer than 5 seats so you have an effective maximum loss of 6.5. I wouldn't like to guess what the maximum win is. We'll know better after Rochester but their national poll ratings only need to move forward a few more points and we could see a domino effect.

I suspect SNP is also a buy for similar reasons, but Scotland not really my subject. LDs too could be a tentative buy. I wouldn't touch Con or Lab yet: both too risky.

Scott_P

volcanopete said:

Hugely incisive analysis by Danny Blanchflower

The first 3 words of that sentence are negated by the last 2

taffys

Hugely incisive analysis by Danny Blanchflower.

Old '5 million unemployed' Danny...???

Do me a favour

JohnLoony

OblitusSumMe said:

(OT) Have they cut off your ear with a scythe yet?

Ishmael_X

antifrank said:

So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

OK.

She is a bit thick, not very nice and it's borderline whether she should have been excused. There are people like that in all parties. There were disproportionately more of them in ukip when it was a small fringe party. But your "Ooooh, racism n xenophobia" card just isn't the ace of trumps you seem to think it is.

FrancisUrquhart

volcanopete said:

Hugely incisive analysis by Danny Blanchflower.

I stopped reading after this. The man is basically wrong about everything, 5 million unemployed he said famously.

TGOHF

volcanopete said:

Hugely incisive analysis by Danny Blanchflower.l

Ah yes - remember his 4 million unemployed prediction ? File under "clown"

TheScreamingEagles

OblitusSumMe said:

"On the morning of election day in 2010 you could have bought LAB at 222 seats with SportingIndex. They got 258 seats which mean that those who’s put place a bet at that level won the difference multiplied by their stake. In this case 36."

Mike, do you have a record of what the spreads were for all the parties on the morning of the election?

With SPIN Cons were around 318, Lab 217, LD 80

bigjohnowls

May is a complete shambles

Artist

Tom Clark ‏@guardian_clark 17m17 minutes ago
Titbit in advance of Gdn/ICM poll: In Feb 1988, ICM recorded the joint Lab-Con-LibDem vote share at 100%

UKIP and Green surge?

MarkHopkins

volcanopete said:

Hugely incisive analysis by Danny Blanchflower.Every economic indicator points to an alarming correction/collapse to take place around Spring 2014.Osborne's long-term economic scam is likely to hit the buffers.Deflation becomes the threat.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/david-blanchflower/david-blanchflower-economic-sentiment-has-turned--bad-news-for-george-osborne-9850240.html

"incisive analysis by Danny Blanchflower". LOL

"to take place around Spring 2014." LOL.

HurstLlama

volcanopete said:

Hugely incisive analysis by Danny Blanchflower.Every economic indicator points to an alarming correction/collapse to take place around Spring 2014.Osborne's long-term economic scam is likely to hit the buffers.Deflation becomes the threat.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/david-blanchflower/david-blanchflower-economic-sentiment-has-turned--bad-news-for-george-osborne-9850240.html

Isn't that the same bloke who told us we were in line for 5 million unemployed? Maybe his credibility is not too high.

TheScreamingEagles

On topic, welcome back old friend.

manofkent2014

HurstLlama said:

volcanopete said:

Hugely incisive analysis by Danny Blanchflower.Every economic indicator points to an alarming correction/collapse to take place around Spring 2014.Osborne's long-term economic scam is likely to hit the buffers.Deflation becomes the threat.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/david-blanchflower/david-blanchflower-economic-sentiment-has-turned--bad-news-for-george-osborne-9850240.html

Isn't that the same bloke who told us we were in line for 5 million unemployed? Maybe his credibility is not too high.

Indeed Blanchflower is a tame Labour propagandist (economist)

Morris_Dancer

Good evening, everyone.

Mr. Llama, it is indeed. Daft sod.

AlastairMeeks

Ishmael_X said:

antifrank said:

So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

OK.

She is a bit thick, not very nice and it's borderline whether she should have been excused. There are people like that in all parties. There were disproportionately more of them in ukip when it was a small fringe party. But your "Ooooh, racism n xenophobia" card just isn't the ace of trumps you seem to think it is.

It was a relatively minor incident. But one of those relatively minor incidents that's very telling.

I'm particularly interested in the desperate attempts by the kippers to defend the indefensible. I don't think the bulk of UKIP supporters are racist. But I do think they are too tolerant of casual racism and they probably would not be if they did not have the impassioned zeal of converts.

It's useful when assessing the likely behaviour of kippers and kipper-flirters in the coming months.

Peter_the_Punter

TGOHF said:

So a massive disparity between Sporting Index and Baxter.

Only if you take Baxter literally, TGOHF, but not if you do as follows.

Key in the percentage shares as you expect them to be for the main Parties, including UKIP. It will almost certainly show their seat total as zero, which is plainly nonsense, so add the number of seats you really think they will win - say, 10 for arguments sake. Deduct that 10 from Con.

Now do the same with SNP except this time deduct your figure from Labour.

You should now have a pretty plausible looking score. When I did this, I finished with Labour most seats and no obvious coalition partner.

Feels about right to me.

malcolmg

FPT

TheWatcher said:

malcolmg said:

Bond_James_Bond said:

malcolmg said:

RobC said:

john_zims said:

@Casino_Royale

'Someone linked on the last thread that there are 'secret' plans to further slash law & order and defence next year?'

What's the problem?

The UK has the most generous legal aid system by a country mile in the entire EU and our military spending is the highest of any EU country and we have the third largest military force in NATO. .

On legal aid I've been told by lawyer friends that it's been savagely cut back in the last year or so?

There was a lawyer on radio Scotland on Sunday whinging that he was only getting £48 an hour from the public to defend the great unwashed nowadays and what a travesty of justice it was to expect him to have to toil for such a pittance.

How mean of the English not to give the whining Scotchman more English money! His arm must ache from holding his hand out for so long!

You thick stupid bag of vomit , it is Scottish Legal system and Scottish money.

So he should have written 'How mean of the Scottish not to give the whining Scotchman more Scottish money! His arm must ache from holding his hand out for so long!'

Is that better Malky, you tartan cockroach?

sick degenerate pervert boy comes out from under his rock, still woofing cretin

TGOHF

50 Labour seat difference between Baxter and Sporting index - incredible mid-point from SI given the polls ?

Jonathan

Like the idea of "political vetting".

Scrapheap_as_was

I've maybe made the same point once or twice

3m Tim Montgomerie ✔ @montie
@DouglasCarswell You hardly have a kind word to say about it anymore Douglas. You have the zeal of a convert atm but things aren't so B&W.

OblitusSumMe

JohnLoony said:

OblitusSumMe said:

(OT) Have they cut off your ear with a scythe yet?

They did decide to give me antibiotics in the end. Massive great big capsules so that you know you are taking Proper Medicine.

"Friends" on facebook have been trying to cheer me up by telling me about all the amazing complications I might suffer from, such as Mastoiditis.

Scott_P

@ICMResearch: Latest ICM @Telegraph #wisdom index poll - Con 31%, Lab 30%, LD 13%, UKIP 16%, Oth 10% - http://t.co/WBMb09yGSF #mrx

Ishmael_X

volcanopete said:

Hugely incisive analysis by Danny Blanchflower.Every economic indicator points to an alarming correction/collapse to take place around Spring 2014.Osborne's long-term economic scam is likely to hit the buffers.Deflation becomes the threat.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/david-blanchflower/david-blanchflower-economic-sentiment-has-turned--bad-news-for-george-osborne-9850240.html

In my time-stream it has already been Spring 2014. He quotes four metrics, not "Every economic indicator" and he predicts a slowdown, not "an alarming correction/collapse" - which in any case is usually a cliche designed to terrify the Daily Mail-reading stock market speculator.

AndyJS

Just joined SportingIndex. My current prediction would be something like Con 285, Lab 280, LD 28, SNP 20, UKIP 10, PC 3, Green 1.

chestnut

Ashcroft Averages (last 6):

GB:.............Lab 30 Con 30 UK 18 LD 8 GRN 7

SE:.............Con 33 Lab 31 UK 18 LD 8 GRN 8
SW/Wales:..Con 30 Lab 30 UK 17 LD 10 GRN 7
Midlands....Con 33 Lab 28 UK 21 LD 9 GRN 7
North.........Lab 37 Con 28 UK 22 LD 7 GRN 6
Scotland.....SNP 49 Lab 27 Con 14 LD 5 UK 4 GRN 4

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Me, I hope your pestilence is remedied soon.

Mr. Scrapheap, not a good sign for you when Montgomerie has to point out there are shades of grey. Carswell does have the chirpy zealotry of a fresh convert.

Mr. Jonathan, not sure politicians would enjoy being neutered.

Flightpath

Sean_F said:

antifrank said:

So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

OK.

I don't think "Little Britain" is racist.

No its satirising racism and kippers fall for it.

BannedInParis

volcanopete said:

Hugely incisive analysis by Danny Blanchflower.Every economic indicator points to an alarming correction/collapse to take place around Spring 2014.Osborne's long-term economic scam is likely to hit the buffers.Deflation becomes the threat.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/david-blanchflower/david-blanchflower-economic-sentiment-has-turned--bad-news-for-george-osborne-9850240.html

Has he revised his previous incisive analyses?

No.

Jog on, son.

Charles

Interesting overall result, implied though. Using top end of ranges:

Lab 296 + LD 29 = 325. They'd need S&C with (presumably) SNP or DUP to even make a coalition work. In the context of DevoMax negotiations ongoing, it'd be interesting to have SLAB and SNP in the same camp...*

Looks like the implied outcome is minority government *and* most likely a repeat election within 12 months (less clear on during 2015). I can't see people bother to do a formal Coalition (with all the compromises it entails) if they need Coalition + S&C to make it work.

Presumably, a second election would benefit Lab/Con most from a resources/incumbent government perspective. Assuming that both and/or either of them keep their cool after a perceived defeat and manage to hold themselves together in anticipation of a re-run.


(* numbers are even worse for the Conservatives, so haven't bothered to work them out)

Peter_the_Punter

antifrank said:

Ishmael_X said:

antifrank said:

So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

OK.

She is a bit thick, not very nice and it's borderline whether she should have been excused. There are people like that in all parties. There were disproportionately more of them in ukip when it was a small fringe party. But your "Ooooh, racism n xenophobia" card just isn't the ace of trumps you seem to think it is.

It was a relatively minor incident. But one of those relatively minor incidents that's very telling.

I'm particularly interested in the desperate attempts by the kippers to defend the indefensible. I don't think the bulk of UKIP supporters are racist. But I do think they are too tolerant of casual racism and they probably would not be if they did not have the impassioned zeal of converts.

It's useful when assessing the likely behaviour of kippers and kipper-flirters in the coming months.

Farage isn't a racist.

UKIP is not a racist Party, and I would say most of its members and voters are not racist, but it does attract some votes from people who are racist. Racist voters have nowhere to go now that the BNP has fallen apart, so it is not surprising they tend to attach themselves to UKIP.

This last factor will become more of an issue for the Party as it grows and wins more seats.

malcolmg

Flightpath said:

Sean_F said:

antifrank said:

So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

OK.

I don't think "Little Britain" is racist.

Sean_F said:

antifrank said:

So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

OK.

I don't think "Little Britain" is racist.

No its satirising racism and kippers fall for it.

So it is fine to be racist as long as you call it satire.

dr_spyn

bigjohnowls said:

May is a complete shambles

Oh dear, how sad, well never mind.

Swiss_Bob

antifrank said:

Ishmael_X said:

antifrank said:

So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

OK.

She is a bit thick, not very nice and it's borderline whether she should have been excused. There are people like that in all parties. There were disproportionately more of them in ukip when it was a small fringe party. But your "Ooooh, racism n xenophobia" card just isn't the ace of trumps you seem to think it is.

It was a relatively minor incident. But one of those relatively minor incidents that's very telling.

I'm particularly interested in the desperate attempts by the kippers to defend the indefensible. I don't think the bulk of UKIP supporters are racist. But I do think they are too tolerant of casual racism and they probably would not be if they did not have the impassioned zeal of converts.

It's useful when assessing the likely behaviour of kippers and kipper-flirters in the coming months.

I don't like casual racism, someone I know seems to think I don't mind/agree with his sentiments. I don't.

However, I know/have known lots of working class, WWC if you will, they will F and blind all day long, and make racist comments, but the funny thing is, half their friends are Asian, black etc. You figure it out.

Edit. When I say 'they' where I grew up I didn't see any racism and it was quite mixed. My mother would never have put up with it! I'm talking about 'some' people.

Alanbrooke

malcolmg said:

Flightpath said:

Sean_F said:

antifrank said:

So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

OK.

I don't think "Little Britain" is racist.

Sean_F said:

antifrank said:

So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

OK.

I don't think "Little Britain" is racist.

No its satirising racism and kippers fall for it.

So it is fine to be racist as long as you call it satire.

The man's a turnip malc.

I'm sitting here watching The Quiet Man on Film 4 trying to figure out if I should be violently offended or if it's satire or if one or two PBers have lost the plot and need to get out more.

Begorrah.

OblitusSumMe

TheScreamingEagles said:

OblitusSumMe said:

"On the morning of election day in 2010 you could have bought LAB at 222 seats with SportingIndex. They got 258 seats which mean that those who’s put place a bet at that level won the difference multiplied by their stake. In this case 36."

Mike, do you have a record of what the spreads were for all the parties on the morning of the election?

With SPIN Cons were around 318, Lab 217, LD 80

Thanks - so looks like punters overestimated the potential for radical change. Will this time be different?

TGOHF

Charles said:

Interesting overall result, implied though. Using top end of ranges:

Lab 296 + LD 29 = 325. They'd need S&C with (presumably) SNP or DUP to even make a coalition work. In the context of DevoMax negotiations ongoing, it'd be interesting to have SLAB and SNP in the same camp...*

Looks like the implied outcome is minority government *and* most likely a repeat election within 12 months (less clear on during 2015). I can't see people bother to do a formal Coalition (with all the compromises it entails) if they need Coalition + S&C to make it work.

Presumably, a second election would benefit Lab/Con most from a resources/incumbent government perspective. Assuming that both and/or either of them keep their cool after a perceived defeat and manage to hold themselves together in anticipation of a re-run.


(* numbers are even worse for the Conservatives, so haven't bothered to work them out)

So factor in 6 weeks of analysis of this suggesting that there will be a hung parly.

Anyone think this WONT thus influence voting patterns ? Vote for a minority party which won't even be kingmakers ?

I'm sceptical.

Scott_P

@Andrew_ComRes: RT @itvnews: ComRes/ITV Index Poll: Half of British public think Ed Miliband would be a bad Prime Minister http://t.co/7xjM8smBG6

HurstLlama

@Charles

"Looks like the implied outcome is minority government *and* most likely a repeat election within 12 months"

A couple of weeks back Shadsy did an article on here on that very scenario and Ladbrookes were offering what I thought were very attractive odds. You may want to have a look at their site.

bigjohnowls

Scott_P said:

@ICMResearch: Latest ICM @Telegraph #wisdom index poll - Con 31%, Lab 30%, LD 13%, UKIP 16%, Oth 10% - http://t.co/WBMb09yGSF #mrx

WI not a real poll poll gives EICIPM of 308/271/41

FrancisUrquhart

Talking of Little Britain / Come Fly with Me...

I notice that the Guardian and fellow travelers are on a mission to get "Dapper Laughs" banned from tv. For those not aware, he is a creation of stand up comic, where the character is deliberately misogynistic individual. and goes around providing his wisdom on how to get the ladies. Think a younger more sexist version of Al Murray's pub landlord.

This guy got a tv show due to being incredibly popular on social media. Now personally from just looking up, who it is the Guardianistas are getting so angry about, I don't find him funny at all, but then I am not his target demographic.

But sadly this guy will probably lose his show as the Guardian have been building and build the outrage, where as Wallaims / Lucas are the darlings of the left and can get away with basically similar types of un-PC characters.

Charles

Artist said:

Tom Clark ‏@guardian_clark 17m17 minutes ago
Titbit in advance of Gdn/ICM poll: In Feb 1988, ICM recorded the joint Lab-Con-LibDem vote share at 100%

UKIP and Green surge?

Was it 1988 or 1989 that the Greens did really well in the Euros?

*innocent face*

JonnyJimmy

Question for the kippers:

What if Mike Read had done a Bhangra song instead of the calypso song, and had sung it in a mock Indian accent. Would that have been just as acceptable to you?

TGOHF

HurstLlama said:

@Charles

"Looks like the implied outcome is minority government *and* most likely a repeat election within 12 months"

A couple of weeks back Shadsy did an article on here on that very scenario and Ladbrookes were offering what I thought were very attractive odds. You may want to have a look at their site.

Again - will voters not tend away from results that give this outcome ?

"Britain heads for hung parly and another GE in 12 months time as 14% of people support Ukip".

I suggest that this will have a squeezing impact with perhaps only one of the main parties benefiting.

bigjohnowls

Scott_P said:

@Andrew_ComRes: RT @itvnews: ComRes/ITV Index Poll: Half of British public think Ed Miliband would be a bad Prime Minister http://t.co/7xjM8smBG6

What percentage think Dave is a bad PM

Flightpath

Alanbrooke said:

malcolmg said:

Flightpath said:

Sean_F said:

antifrank said:

So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

OK.

I don't think "Little Britain" is racist.

Sean_F said:

antifrank said:

So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

OK.

I don't think "Little Britain" is racist.

No its satirising racism and kippers fall for it.

So it is fine to be racist as long as you call it satire.

The man's a turnip malc.

I'm sitting here watching The Quiet Man on Film 4 trying to figure out if I should be violently offend or if it's satire or if one or two PBers have lost the plot and need to get out more.

Begorrah.

You just prove that kippers from Farage down have no sense of self awareness. Thanks for confirming to me what sort of people you are.
You will be condoning profiteers on the Tower poppies next.
Its really quite pathetic seeing kippers stick their heads so far up their backsides using the BBC and its absurd comedians to defend the gratuitous use of a racist slur (about her own supporters!).

It is of course not 'fine to be racist as long as you call it satire'. But that is not what happened. The programme was attacking casual racism (not in a very brilliant way IMHO) indeed the fact that kippers cannot see through that shows how poorly designed the 'comedy' was.

AndyJS

Commons vote:

Ayes: 251
Noes: 242

Government majority: 9

Charles

OblitusSumMe said:

JohnLoony said:

OblitusSumMe said:

(OT) Have they cut off your ear with a scythe yet?

They did decide to give me antibiotics in the end. Massive great big capsules so that you know you are taking Proper Medicine.

"Friends" on facebook have been trying to cheer me up by telling me about all the amazing complications I might suffer from, such as Mastoiditis.

It could be worse...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/celebritynews/11203727/Shocked-Katie-Melua-found-spider-living-in-her-ear.html

dr_spyn

Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes 56s56 seconds ago
Government wins 251-242

Charles

Ishmael_X said:

volcanopete said:

Hugely incisive analysis by Danny Blanchflower.Every economic indicator points to an alarming correction/collapse to take place around Spring 2014.Osborne's long-term economic scam is likely to hit the buffers.Deflation becomes the threat.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/david-blanchflower/david-blanchflower-economic-sentiment-has-turned--bad-news-for-george-osborne-9850240.html

In my time-stream it has already been Spring 2014. He quotes four metrics, not "Every economic indicator" and he predicts a slowdown, not "an alarming correction/collapse" - which in any case is usually a cliche designed to terrify the Daily Mail-reading stock market speculator.

BTW, the corporate asset transfer market has slowed significantly in the last 6 weeks.

That's usually a pretty good, if opaque, leading indicator

JonnyJimmy

HurstLlama said:

@Charles

"Looks like the implied outcome is minority government *and* most likely a repeat election within 12 months"

A couple of weeks back Shadsy did an article on here on that very scenario and Ladbrookes were offering what I thought were very attractive odds. You may want to have a look at their site.

2 elections in 2015 is 7/1 with Shadsy

isam

JonnyJimmy said:

Question for the kippers:

What if Mike Read had done a Bhangra song instead of the calypso song, and had sung it in a mock Indian accent. Would that have been just as acceptable to you?

The ukip winter festival single


http://youtu.be/oA0aikxt-r8

Alanbrooke

Flightpath said:

Alanbrooke said:

malcolmg said:

Flightpath said:

Sean_F said:

antifrank said:

So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

OK.

I don't think "Little Britain" is racist.

Sean_F said:

antifrank said:

So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

OK.

I don't think "Little Britain" is racist.

No its satirising racism and kippers fall for it.

So it is fine to be racist as long as you call it satire.

The man's a turnip malc.

I'm sitting here watching The Quiet Man on Film 4 trying to figure out if I should be violently offend or if it's satire or if one or two PBers have lost the plot and need to get out more.

Begorrah.

You just prove that kippers from Farage down have no sense of self awareness. Thanks for confirming to me what sort of people you are.
You will be condoning profiteers on the Tower poppies next.
Its really quite pathetic seeing kippers stick their heads so far up their backsides using the BBC and its absurd comedians to defend the gratuitous use of a racist slur (about her own supporters!).

It is of course not 'fine to be racist as long as you call it satire'. But that is not what happened. The programme was attacking casual racism (not in a very brilliant way IMHO) indeed the fact that kippers cannot see through that shows how poorly designed the 'comedy' was.

I'm not a kipper. I've never voted UKIP. I have voted conservative and voted for Cameron in 2010. So does that make you a total arse by association or was I being satirical ?

Or maybe you should just get a life.

manofkent2014

Cameron and May's great act of cowardice

Cameron facing rebellion as he denies MPs vote on European arrest warrant

Commons Speaker John Bercow says public would regard surprise decision not to allow vote on EAW as ‘contemptuous

http://www.theguardian.com/law/2014/nov/10/cameron-facing-rebellion-denied-mps-vote-european-arrest-warrant

And these are the people who will lead the Tories into the election......

Swiss_Bob

JonnyJimmy said:

Question for the kippers:

What if Mike Read had done a Bhangra song instead of the calypso song, and had sung it in a mock Indian accent. Would that have been just as acceptable to you?

Are white people with dreadlocks racist.

That's 'cultural appropriation' isn't it?

AndyJS

Tory majority out to 6.8:

http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.101416490

Charles

HurstLlama said:

@Charles

"Looks like the implied outcome is minority government *and* most likely a repeat election within 12 months"

A couple of weeks back Shadsy did an article on here on that very scenario and Ladbrookes were offering what I thought were very attractive odds. You may want to have a look at their site.

Thanks, but don't really do anything beyond fun bets (you do realise you are going to be buying me lunch after the next election, don't you?)

Given the time I have, I'd rather spend it considering EIS investments. (Not, of course, I am suggesting that is tax-deductible gambling, not at all)

isam

Flightpath said:

Alanbrooke said:

malcolmg said:

Flightpath said:

Sean_F said:

antifrank said:

So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

OK.

I don't think "Little Britain" is racist.

Sean_F said:

antifrank said:

So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

OK.

I don't think "Little Britain" is racist.

No its satirising racism and kippers fall for it.

So it is fine to be racist as long as you call it satire.

The man's a turnip malc.

I'm sitting here watching The Quiet Man on Film 4 trying to figure out if I should be violently offend or if it's satire or if one or two PBers have lost the plot and need to get out more.

Begorrah.

You just prove that kippers from Farage down have no sense of self awareness. Thanks for confirming to me what sort of people you are.
You will be condoning profiteers on the Tower poppies next.
Its really quite pathetic seeing kippers stick their heads so far up their backsides using the BBC and its absurd comedians to defend the gratuitous use of a racist slur (about her own supporters!).

It is of course not 'fine to be racist as long as you call it satire'. But that is not what happened. The programme was attacking casual racism (not in a very brilliant way IMHO) indeed the fact that kippers cannot see through that shows how poorly designed the 'comedy' was.

Was the programme tackling casual racism?? How?

bigjohnowls

May keeps saying we have been clear when all sides and the Speaker think not.

SimonStClare

"One in three UK jobs will be performed by machine in as little as 20 years"

Didn't they say the same thing on 'Tomorrow's World' some 30 years ago..?

Swiss_Bob

SeanT said:

Brought to you by I am Always Right Incorporated:

some pb-ers will remember a big debate we had on here about the robotisation of work. My thesis was that a load of jobs were at risk from robots and digital technology (obviously true) and that one of them was translater/interpreter, so I would no longer be advising my 8 year old daughters to learn Mandarin.

At the time many fiercely objected, saying computers could never be translators, blah blah, the Lib Dem Switchers are crucial, yada yada, you're a Nazi whoremongering pedo, etc etc

Here ya go:


http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/11/10/rise_of_the_robot_workforce_theyre_after_your_job/

"One in three UK jobs will be performed by machine in as little as 20 years, according to a new study carried out the University of Oxford and Deloitte...

With constantly improving machine translation, foreign language skills also take a hit."

That study was probably brought to you by someone with the insight of the IBM executive that forecast the worldwide market for PCs would be six.

TGOHF

SeanT said:

Brought to you by I am Always Right Incorporated:

some pb-ers will remember a big debate we had on here about the robotisation of work. My thesis was that a load of jobs were at risk from robots and digital technology

At the time many fiercely objected, saying computers could never be translators, blah blah, the Lib Dem Switchers are crucial, yada yada, you're a Nazi whoremongering pedo, etc etc

Here ya go:


http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/11/10/rise_of_the_robot_workforce_theyre_after_your_job/

"One in three UK jobs will be performed by machine in as little as 20 years, according to a new study carried out the University of Oxford and Deloitte...

With constantly improving machine translation, foreign language skills also take a hit."

Kippers will block these silver fiends from crossing our borders, hidden on trains from the continent with a new "illegal robot police force".

Alternatively we should ensure that it is British people designing, building and programming the robots by teaching them about maths n science and not global warming and other religions.

HurstLlama

TGOHF said:

HurstLlama said:

@Charles

"Looks like the implied outcome is minority government *and* most likely a repeat election within 12 months"

A couple of weeks back Shadsy did an article on here on that very scenario and Ladbrookes were offering what I thought were very attractive odds. You may want to have a look at their site.

Again - will voters not tend away from results that give this outcome ?

"Britain heads for hung parly and another GE in 12 months time as 14% of people support Ukip".

I suggest that this will have a squeezing impact with perhaps only one of the main parties benefiting.

Will voters change their vote based on predictions of the likely outcome? I very much doubt it. Firstly, I don't think the vast majority of voters pay that much attention (I think the tactical voting is much over-blown on this site). Secondly, if they do change how do they know what to change to in order to avoid an unstable government?

bigjohnowls

No vote on EAW

Cameron gone back on his word.

Or just another lie

Charles

JonnyJimmy said:

HurstLlama said:

@Charles

"Looks like the implied outcome is minority government *and* most likely a repeat election within 12 months"

A couple of weeks back Shadsy did an article on here on that very scenario and Ladbrookes were offering what I thought were very attractive odds. You may want to have a look at their site.

2 elections in 2015 is 7/1 with Shadsy

That doesn't strike me as a particularly likely outcome.

May 5th election.

A couple of weeks to sort the mess out.

Minimum 6 months for a government to run (doubt the voters would be impressed with a revote in much less than that). Especially if it is minority with S&C to back it up.

Immediately puts you into mid November - wouldn't most governments try to push through to the Spring?

Alanbrooke

Swiss_Bob said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Question for the kippers:

What if Mike Read had done a Bhangra song instead of the calypso song, and had sung it in a mock Indian accent. Would that have been just as acceptable to you?

Are white people with dreadlocks racist.

That's 'cultural appropriation' isn't it?

What about citizen Khan where a UK born bloke puts on a pakistani accent ?

Is he a racist, an uncle tom, highly amusing in a post modernist ironical sense or some guy who sees a way of making some cash ?

Pong

Damn I missed The SPIN market opening.

UKIP were probably a buy at 10 given the huge potential upside. Personally I'd have priced it at ~11.5-13.5.

I mean who's going to sell ukip at 8 seats?

TGOHF

HurstLlama said:

TGOHF said:

HurstLlama said:

@Charles

"Looks like the implied outcome is minority government *and* most likely a repeat election within 12 months"

A couple of weeks back Shadsy did an article on here on that very scenario and Ladbrookes were offering what I thought were very attractive odds. You may want to have a look at their site.

Again - will voters not tend away from results that give this outcome ?

"Britain heads for hung parly and another GE in 12 months time as 14% of people support Ukip".

I suggest that this will have a squeezing impact with perhaps only one of the main parties benefiting.

Secondly, if they do change how do they know what to change to in order to avoid an unstable government?

Vote for a party that can realistically get over 300 seats...

isam

Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn)
10/11/2014 17:48
Govt avoids a total disaster on their own EAW (non-)motion by just 5 votes. Safe to say this ugly sleight of hand has appallingly backfired.

AndyJS

How does this work? If I think UKIP are going to win 20 seats, do I buy or sell now, or do I have to wait until the page is showing UKIP on 20 seats (if that ever happens)?

MarkSenior

Pong said:

Damn I missed The SPIN market opening.

UKIP were probably a buy at 10 given the huge potential upside. Personally I'd have priced it at ~11.5-13.5.

I mean who's going to sell ukip at 8 seats?

I would sell UKIP at 8 , certainly all those who forecast that UKIP would win the South Yorks PCC election will be buyers .

TGOHF

Will there be limits on EU and non-EU robots ?

May has lain down on the tracks to save Ed - astonishing suicide bombing.

isam

Alanbrooke said:

Swiss_Bob said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Question for the kippers:

What if Mike Read had done a Bhangra song instead of the calypso song, and had sung it in a mock Indian accent. Would that have been just as acceptable to you?

Are white people with dreadlocks racist.

That's 'cultural appropriation' isn't it?

What about citizen Khan where a UK born bloke puts on a pakistani accent ?

Is he a racist, an uncle tom, highly amusing in a post modernist ironical sense or some guy who sees a way of making some cash ?

It's ok because decades of diversity awareness and equality measures have been so successful that we have to see what colour, gender or sexual preference someone is before deciding whether what they say is funny or not

TheScreamingEagles

ICM Guardian

Con 31 (nc) Lab 32 (-3) LD 11 (nc) UKIP 14 (nc) Greens 6 (+2)

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/10/icm-guardian-poll-support-labour-drops-criticism-ed-miliband

Sunil_Prasannan

JonnyJimmy said:

Question for the kippers:

What if Mike Read had done a Bhangra song instead of the calypso song, and had sung it in a mock Indian accent. Would that have been just as acceptable to you?

I hate Bhangra

Swiss_Bob

If we've got cheap robots I don't think we'll be worrying whether we have jobs or not.

We'll be worrying about what the people who own the robots have in mind for the rest of us.