politicalbetting
Home› General

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Sign In Register

Categories

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The opening prices on the GE2015 spread betting markets hav

SystemSystem Posts: 11,718
edited November 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The opening prices on the GE2015 spread betting markets have LAB 18 seats ahead of CON but well short of a majority

For me political vetting is about the spreads where things like commons seats are traded like stocks and share and where the more you are right the more you win.

Read the full story here


«13456

Comments

  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,931
    Not a great starting position for Lab...
  • Options
    BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391
    Just like the old days...
    have my first SPIN spread with a buy on the Conservatives.
    First moves - UKIP and Tories up one from starting prices.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,602
    Or the Conservatives...
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,023
    This more or less tallies with my assessment, so it's no bet for the moment from me.
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Liberal Democrats in double figures two Ashcroft Polls in a row and Labour under 30% too? Cor.

    I guess everyone will have to stop complaining about how "volatile" the Ashcroft polls are now. I wonder what the probabilities on this sort of no-change poll are?
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

    OK.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited November 2014
    Minutes later the CBI slammed Miliband’s whole speech:

    “Labour’s tendency to market intervention could deter investment. We believe open markets are the best way to deliver growth for all.”

    Strange, didn't hear that mentioned at all on R5 in their reports on todays outing at the CBI. It was all about how wrong Cameron was on everything, even when the head of the CBI came on said he backed Cameron approach on the EU.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2014
    The government and Gove in particular is in deep trouble in the Commons with their decision to ditch a separate vote on the European Arrest Warrant. Every speaker is castigating them, including Jacob Rees-Mogg.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    On the figures for spreads given I would buy Lib Dems and sell SNP and UKIP
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,033
    Jacob Rees Mogg "This is a sorry day for this government..."
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,602
    antifrank said:

    So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

    OK.

    Is it your line that it's OK for the BBC to be racist, but not OK for UKIP?
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,771
    antifrank said:

    So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

    OK.

    I suppose the other side of that is why is it acceptable if not hilarious for gayer Matt Lucas to use the term but nobody else can ? Pehaps you can explain.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,602
    OblitusSumMe said:

    Liberal Democrats in double figures two Ashcroft Polls in a row and Labour under 30% too? Cor.

    I guess everyone will have to stop complaining about how "volatile" the Ashcroft polls are now. I wonder what the probabilities on this sort of no-change poll are?

    Ashcroft samples are generally around 50-75% the size of other polls. Just sayin'.
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    Brilliant !!!

    Yvette has a stormer..... time to become the LotO asap!!
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,012
    AndyJS said:

    The government and Gove in particular is in deep trouble in the Commons with their decision to ditch a separate vote on the European Arrest Warrant. Every speaker is castigating them, including Jacob Rees-Mogg.

    Given that they were going to win the vote, why did the drop it?

  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,931
    edited November 2014
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Or the Conservatives...

    The Conservatives still have time for improvements. Labour has been in decline since spring 2013 and it's hard to see how/why they would recover between now and polling day.
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    "On the morning of election day in 2010 you could have bought LAB at 222 seats with SportingIndex. They got 258 seats which mean that those who’s put place a bet at that level won the difference multiplied by their stake. In this case 36."

    Mike, do you have a record of what the spreads were for all the parties on the morning of the election?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,033
    edited November 2014
    Rees mogg is slaughtering May here

    "Tyranny... Underhand...crooked"
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,012
    antifrank said:

    So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

    OK.

    I don't think "Little Britain" is racist.

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,023
    GIN1138 said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Or the Conservatives...

    The Conservatives still have time for improvements. Labour has been in decline since spring 2013 and it's hard to see how/why they would recover between now and polling day.
    The prices are factoring in some Labour decline in the polls.
  • Options
    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Hugely incisive analysis by Danny Blanchflower.Every economic indicator points to an alarming correction/collapse to take place around Spring 2014.Osborne's long-term economic scam is likely to hit the buffers.Deflation becomes the threat.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/david-blanchflower/david-blanchflower-economic-sentiment-has-turned--bad-news-for-george-osborne-9850240.html
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    So a massive disparity between Sporting Index and Baxter.

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,023
    Selling UKIP on these spreads is a pretty risky strategy I think.

  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,602
    edited November 2014
    isam said:

    Rees mogg is slaughtering May here

    "Tyranny... Underhand...crooked"

    Theresa May = Vidkun Quisling?

    :)
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,377
    Great to see SPIN back in the biz.

    There has obviously been quite a bit of trading already. UKIP are up to 11.5, Con have inched forward and Labour down a bit.

    Even at the revised price, UKIP would be a buy. It's already looking unlikely they will win fewer than 5 seats so you have an effective maximum loss of 6.5. I wouldn't like to guess what the maximum win is. We'll know better after Rochester but their national poll ratings only need to move forward a few more points and we could see a domino effect.

    I suspect SNP is also a buy for similar reasons, but Scotland not really my subject. LDs too could be a tentative buy. I wouldn't touch Con or Lab yet: both too risky.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    volcanopete said:

    Hugely incisive analysis by Danny Blanchflower

    The first 3 words of that sentence are negated by the last 2
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Hugely incisive analysis by Danny Blanchflower.

    Old '5 million unemployed' Danny...???

    Do me a favour
  • Options
    JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    OblitusSumMe said:

    (OT) Have they cut off your ear with a scythe yet?

  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    antifrank said:

    So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

    OK.

    She is a bit thick, not very nice and it's borderline whether she should have been excused. There are people like that in all parties. There were disproportionately more of them in ukip when it was a small fringe party. But your "Ooooh, racism n xenophobia" card just isn't the ace of trumps you seem to think it is.

  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    volcanopete said:

    Hugely incisive analysis by Danny Blanchflower.

    I stopped reading after this. The man is basically wrong about everything, 5 million unemployed he said famously.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    volcanopete said:

    Hugely incisive analysis by Danny Blanchflower.l

    Ah yes - remember his 4 million unemployed prediction ? File under "clown"
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,673
    OblitusSumMe said:

    "On the morning of election day in 2010 you could have bought LAB at 222 seats with SportingIndex. They got 258 seats which mean that those who’s put place a bet at that level won the difference multiplied by their stake. In this case 36."

    Mike, do you have a record of what the spreads were for all the parties on the morning of the election?

    With SPIN Cons were around 318, Lab 217, LD 80
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,911
    May is a complete shambles
  • Options
    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,883
    Tom Clark ‏@guardian_clark 17m17 minutes ago
    Titbit in advance of Gdn/ICM poll: In Feb 1988, ICM recorded the joint Lab-Con-LibDem vote share at 100%

    UKIP and Green surge?
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    volcanopete said:

    Hugely incisive analysis by Danny Blanchflower.Every economic indicator points to an alarming correction/collapse to take place around Spring 2014.Osborne's long-term economic scam is likely to hit the buffers.Deflation becomes the threat.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/david-blanchflower/david-blanchflower-economic-sentiment-has-turned--bad-news-for-george-osborne-9850240.html


    "incisive analysis by Danny Blanchflower". LOL

    "to take place around Spring 2014." LOL.

  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    volcanopete said:

    Hugely incisive analysis by Danny Blanchflower.Every economic indicator points to an alarming correction/collapse to take place around Spring 2014.Osborne's long-term economic scam is likely to hit the buffers.Deflation becomes the threat.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/david-blanchflower/david-blanchflower-economic-sentiment-has-turned--bad-news-for-george-osborne-9850240.html

    Isn't that the same bloke who told us we were in line for 5 million unemployed? Maybe his credibility is not too high.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,673
    On topic, welcome back old friend.
  • Options
    manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    HurstLlama said:

    volcanopete said:

    Hugely incisive analysis by Danny Blanchflower.Every economic indicator points to an alarming correction/collapse to take place around Spring 2014.Osborne's long-term economic scam is likely to hit the buffers.Deflation becomes the threat.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/david-blanchflower/david-blanchflower-economic-sentiment-has-turned--bad-news-for-george-osborne-9850240.html

    Isn't that the same bloke who told us we were in line for 5 million unemployed? Maybe his credibility is not too high.
    Indeed Blanchflower is a tame Labour propagandist (economist)
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,023
    edited November 2014
    Good evening, everyone.

    Mr. Llama, it is indeed. Daft sod.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Ishmael_X said:

    antifrank said:

    So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

    OK.

    She is a bit thick, not very nice and it's borderline whether she should have been excused. There are people like that in all parties. There were disproportionately more of them in ukip when it was a small fringe party. But your "Ooooh, racism n xenophobia" card just isn't the ace of trumps you seem to think it is.

    It was a relatively minor incident. But one of those relatively minor incidents that's very telling.

    I'm particularly interested in the desperate attempts by the kippers to defend the indefensible. I don't think the bulk of UKIP supporters are racist. But I do think they are too tolerant of casual racism and they probably would not be if they did not have the impassioned zeal of converts.

    It's useful when assessing the likely behaviour of kippers and kipper-flirters in the coming months.
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,377
    TGOHF said:

    So a massive disparity between Sporting Index and Baxter.

    Only if you take Baxter literally, TGOHF, but not if you do as follows.

    Key in the percentage shares as you expect them to be for the main Parties, including UKIP. It will almost certainly show their seat total as zero, which is plainly nonsense, so add the number of seats you really think they will win - say, 10 for arguments sake. Deduct that 10 from Con.

    Now do the same with SNP except this time deduct your figure from Labour.

    You should now have a pretty plausible looking score. When I did this, I finished with Labour most seats and no obvious coalition partner.

    Feels about right to me.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,180
    FPT
    TheWatcher said:

    malcolmg said:

    Bond_James_Bond said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobC said:

    john_zims said:

    @Casino_Royale

    'Someone linked on the last thread that there are 'secret' plans to further slash law & order and defence next year?'

    What's the problem?

    The UK has the most generous legal aid system by a country mile in the entire EU and our military spending is the highest of any EU country and we have the third largest military force in NATO. .

    On legal aid I've been told by lawyer friends that it's been savagely cut back in the last year or so?
    There was a lawyer on radio Scotland on Sunday whinging that he was only getting £48 an hour from the public to defend the great unwashed nowadays and what a travesty of justice it was to expect him to have to toil for such a pittance.
    How mean of the English not to give the whining Scotchman more English money! His arm must ache from holding his hand out for so long!
    You thick stupid bag of vomit , it is Scottish Legal system and Scottish money.
    So he should have written 'How mean of the Scottish not to give the whining Scotchman more Scottish money! His arm must ache from holding his hand out for so long!'

    Is that better Malky, you tartan cockroach?
    sick degenerate pervert boy comes out from under his rock, still woofing cretin
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    50 Labour seat difference between Baxter and Sporting index - incredible mid-point from SI given the polls ?
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    Like the idea of "political vetting".
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    I've maybe made the same point once or twice

    3m Tim Montgomerie ✔ @montie
    @DouglasCarswell You hardly have a kind word to say about it anymore Douglas. You have the zeal of a convert atm but things aren't so B&W.
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    JohnLoony said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    (OT) Have they cut off your ear with a scythe yet?
    They did decide to give me antibiotics in the end. Massive great big capsules so that you know you are taking Proper Medicine.

    "Friends" on facebook have been trying to cheer me up by telling me about all the amazing complications I might suffer from, such as Mastoiditis.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ICMResearch: Latest ICM @Telegraph #wisdom index poll - Con 31%, Lab 30%, LD 13%, UKIP 16%, Oth 10% - http://t.co/WBMb09yGSF #mrx
  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    volcanopete said:

    Hugely incisive analysis by Danny Blanchflower.Every economic indicator points to an alarming correction/collapse to take place around Spring 2014.Osborne's long-term economic scam is likely to hit the buffers.Deflation becomes the threat.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/david-blanchflower/david-blanchflower-economic-sentiment-has-turned--bad-news-for-george-osborne-9850240.html

    In my time-stream it has already been Spring 2014. He quotes four metrics, not "Every economic indicator" and he predicts a slowdown, not "an alarming correction/collapse" - which in any case is usually a cliche designed to terrify the Daily Mail-reading stock market speculator.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Just joined SportingIndex. My current prediction would be something like Con 285, Lab 280, LD 28, SNP 20, UKIP 10, PC 3, Green 1.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Ashcroft Averages (last 6):

    GB:.............Lab 30 Con 30 UK 18 LD 8 GRN 7

    SE:.............Con 33 Lab 31 UK 18 LD 8 GRN 8
    SW/Wales:..Con 30 Lab 30 UK 17 LD 10 GRN 7
    Midlands....Con 33 Lab 28 UK 21 LD 9 GRN 7
    North.........Lab 37 Con 28 UK 22 LD 7 GRN 6
    Scotland.....SNP 49 Lab 27 Con 14 LD 5 UK 4 GRN 4


  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,023
    Mr. Me, I hope your pestilence is remedied soon.

    Mr. Scrapheap, not a good sign for you when Montgomerie has to point out there are shades of grey. Carswell does have the chirpy zealotry of a fresh convert.

    Mr. Jonathan, not sure politicians would enjoy being neutered.
  • Options
    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    edited November 2014
    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

    OK.

    I don't think "Little Britain" is racist.

    No its satirising racism and kippers fall for it.
  • Options
    BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    volcanopete said:

    Hugely incisive analysis by Danny Blanchflower.Every economic indicator points to an alarming correction/collapse to take place around Spring 2014.Osborne's long-term economic scam is likely to hit the buffers.Deflation becomes the threat.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/david-blanchflower/david-blanchflower-economic-sentiment-has-turned--bad-news-for-george-osborne-9850240.html

    Has he revised his previous incisive analyses?

    No.

    Jog on, son.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Interesting overall result, implied though. Using top end of ranges:

    Lab 296 + LD 29 = 325. They'd need S&C with (presumably) SNP or DUP to even make a coalition work. In the context of DevoMax negotiations ongoing, it'd be interesting to have SLAB and SNP in the same camp...*

    Looks like the implied outcome is minority government *and* most likely a repeat election within 12 months (less clear on during 2015). I can't see people bother to do a formal Coalition (with all the compromises it entails) if they need Coalition + S&C to make it work.

    Presumably, a second election would benefit Lab/Con most from a resources/incumbent government perspective. Assuming that both and/or either of them keep their cool after a perceived defeat and manage to hold themselves together in anticipation of a re-run.


    (* numbers are even worse for the Conservatives, so haven't bothered to work them out)

  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,377
    antifrank said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    antifrank said:

    So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

    OK.

    She is a bit thick, not very nice and it's borderline whether she should have been excused. There are people like that in all parties. There were disproportionately more of them in ukip when it was a small fringe party. But your "Ooooh, racism n xenophobia" card just isn't the ace of trumps you seem to think it is.

    It was a relatively minor incident. But one of those relatively minor incidents that's very telling.

    I'm particularly interested in the desperate attempts by the kippers to defend the indefensible. I don't think the bulk of UKIP supporters are racist. But I do think they are too tolerant of casual racism and they probably would not be if they did not have the impassioned zeal of converts.

    It's useful when assessing the likely behaviour of kippers and kipper-flirters in the coming months.
    Farage isn't a racist.

    UKIP is not a racist Party, and I would say most of its members and voters are not racist, but it does attract some votes from people who are racist. Racist voters have nowhere to go now that the BNP has fallen apart, so it is not surprising they tend to attach themselves to UKIP.

    This last factor will become more of an issue for the Party as it grows and wins more seats.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,180
    Flightpath said:

    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

    OK.

    I don't think "Little Britain" is racist.

    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

    OK.

    I don't think "Little Britain" is racist.

    No its satirising racism and kippers fall for it.
    So it is fine to be racist as long as you call it satire.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    bigjohnowls said:

    May is a complete shambles

    Oh dear, how sad, well never mind.
  • Options
    Swiss_BobSwiss_Bob Posts: 619
    edited November 2014
    antifrank said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    antifrank said:

    So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

    OK.

    She is a bit thick, not very nice and it's borderline whether she should have been excused. There are people like that in all parties. There were disproportionately more of them in ukip when it was a small fringe party. But your "Ooooh, racism n xenophobia" card just isn't the ace of trumps you seem to think it is.

    It was a relatively minor incident. But one of those relatively minor incidents that's very telling.

    I'm particularly interested in the desperate attempts by the kippers to defend the indefensible. I don't think the bulk of UKIP supporters are racist. But I do think they are too tolerant of casual racism and they probably would not be if they did not have the impassioned zeal of converts.

    It's useful when assessing the likely behaviour of kippers and kipper-flirters in the coming months.
    I don't like casual racism, someone I know seems to think I don't mind/agree with his sentiments. I don't.

    However, I know/have known lots of working class, WWC if you will, they will F and blind all day long, and make racist comments, but the funny thing is, half their friends are Asian, black etc. You figure it out.

    Edit. When I say 'they' where I grew up I didn't see any racism and it was quite mixed. My mother would never have put up with it! I'm talking about 'some' people.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,771
    edited November 2014
    malcolmg said:

    Flightpath said:

    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

    OK.

    I don't think "Little Britain" is racist.

    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

    OK.

    I don't think "Little Britain" is racist.

    No its satirising racism and kippers fall for it.
    So it is fine to be racist as long as you call it satire.
    The man's a turnip malc.

    I'm sitting here watching The Quiet Man on Film 4 trying to figure out if I should be violently offended or if it's satire or if one or two PBers have lost the plot and need to get out more.

    Begorrah.
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    "On the morning of election day in 2010 you could have bought LAB at 222 seats with SportingIndex. They got 258 seats which mean that those who’s put place a bet at that level won the difference multiplied by their stake. In this case 36."

    Mike, do you have a record of what the spreads were for all the parties on the morning of the election?

    With SPIN Cons were around 318, Lab 217, LD 80
    Thanks - so looks like punters overestimated the potential for radical change. Will this time be different?
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Charles said:

    Interesting overall result, implied though. Using top end of ranges:

    Lab 296 + LD 29 = 325. They'd need S&C with (presumably) SNP or DUP to even make a coalition work. In the context of DevoMax negotiations ongoing, it'd be interesting to have SLAB and SNP in the same camp...*

    Looks like the implied outcome is minority government *and* most likely a repeat election within 12 months (less clear on during 2015). I can't see people bother to do a formal Coalition (with all the compromises it entails) if they need Coalition + S&C to make it work.

    Presumably, a second election would benefit Lab/Con most from a resources/incumbent government perspective. Assuming that both and/or either of them keep their cool after a perceived defeat and manage to hold themselves together in anticipation of a re-run.


    (* numbers are even worse for the Conservatives, so haven't bothered to work them out)

    So factor in 6 weeks of analysis of this suggesting that there will be a hung parly.

    Anyone think this WONT thus influence voting patterns ? Vote for a minority party which won't even be kingmakers ?

    I'm sceptical.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Andrew_ComRes: RT @itvnews: ComRes/ITV Index Poll: Half of British public think Ed Miliband would be a bad Prime Minister http://t.co/7xjM8smBG6
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @Charles

    "Looks like the implied outcome is minority government *and* most likely a repeat election within 12 months"

    A couple of weeks back Shadsy did an article on here on that very scenario and Ladbrookes were offering what I thought were very attractive odds. You may want to have a look at their site.

  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,911
    Scott_P said:

    @ICMResearch: Latest ICM @Telegraph #wisdom index poll - Con 31%, Lab 30%, LD 13%, UKIP 16%, Oth 10% - http://t.co/WBMb09yGSF #mrx

    WI not a real poll poll gives EICIPM of 308/271/41
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited November 2014
    Talking of Little Britain / Come Fly with Me...

    I notice that the Guardian and fellow travelers are on a mission to get "Dapper Laughs" banned from tv. For those not aware, he is a creation of stand up comic, where the character is deliberately misogynistic individual. and goes around providing his wisdom on how to get the ladies. Think a younger more sexist version of Al Murray's pub landlord.

    This guy got a tv show due to being incredibly popular on social media. Now personally from just looking up, who it is the Guardianistas are getting so angry about, I don't find him funny at all, but then I am not his target demographic.

    But sadly this guy will probably lose his show as the Guardian have been building and build the outrage, where as Wallaims / Lucas are the darlings of the left and can get away with basically similar types of un-PC characters.

  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Artist said:

    Tom Clark ‏@guardian_clark 17m17 minutes ago
    Titbit in advance of Gdn/ICM poll: In Feb 1988, ICM recorded the joint Lab-Con-LibDem vote share at 100%

    UKIP and Green surge?

    Was it 1988 or 1989 that the Greens did really well in the Euros?

    *innocent face*
  • Options
    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Question for the kippers:

    What if Mike Read had done a Bhangra song instead of the calypso song, and had sung it in a mock Indian accent. Would that have been just as acceptable to you?
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    HurstLlama said:

    @Charles

    "Looks like the implied outcome is minority government *and* most likely a repeat election within 12 months"

    A couple of weeks back Shadsy did an article on here on that very scenario and Ladbrookes were offering what I thought were very attractive odds. You may want to have a look at their site.

    Again - will voters not tend away from results that give this outcome ?

    "Britain heads for hung parly and another GE in 12 months time as 14% of people support Ukip".

    I suggest that this will have a squeezing impact with perhaps only one of the main parties benefiting.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,911
    Scott_P said:

    @Andrew_ComRes: RT @itvnews: ComRes/ITV Index Poll: Half of British public think Ed Miliband would be a bad Prime Minister http://t.co/7xjM8smBG6

    What percentage think Dave is a bad PM
  • Options
    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Alanbrooke said:

    malcolmg said:

    Flightpath said:

    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

    OK.

    I don't think "Little Britain" is racist.

    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

    OK.

    I don't think "Little Britain" is racist.

    No its satirising racism and kippers fall for it.
    So it is fine to be racist as long as you call it satire.
    The man's a turnip malc.

    I'm sitting here watching The Quiet Man on Film 4 trying to figure out if I should be violently offend or if it's satire or if one or two PBers have lost the plot and need to get out more.

    Begorrah.
    You just prove that kippers from Farage down have no sense of self awareness. Thanks for confirming to me what sort of people you are.
    You will be condoning profiteers on the Tower poppies next.
    Its really quite pathetic seeing kippers stick their heads so far up their backsides using the BBC and its absurd comedians to defend the gratuitous use of a racist slur (about her own supporters!).

    It is of course not 'fine to be racist as long as you call it satire'. But that is not what happened. The programme was attacking casual racism (not in a very brilliant way IMHO) indeed the fact that kippers cannot see through that shows how poorly designed the 'comedy' was.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Commons vote:

    Ayes: 251
    Noes: 242

    Government majority: 9
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    OblitusSumMe said:

    JohnLoony said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    (OT) Have they cut off your ear with a scythe yet?
    They did decide to give me antibiotics in the end. Massive great big capsules so that you know you are taking Proper Medicine.

    "Friends" on facebook have been trying to cheer me up by telling me about all the amazing complications I might suffer from, such as Mastoiditis.
    It could be worse...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/celebritynews/11203727/Shocked-Katie-Melua-found-spider-living-in-her-ear.html
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes 56s56 seconds ago
    Government wins 251-242
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Ishmael_X said:

    volcanopete said:

    Hugely incisive analysis by Danny Blanchflower.Every economic indicator points to an alarming correction/collapse to take place around Spring 2014.Osborne's long-term economic scam is likely to hit the buffers.Deflation becomes the threat.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/david-blanchflower/david-blanchflower-economic-sentiment-has-turned--bad-news-for-george-osborne-9850240.html

    In my time-stream it has already been Spring 2014. He quotes four metrics, not "Every economic indicator" and he predicts a slowdown, not "an alarming correction/collapse" - which in any case is usually a cliche designed to terrify the Daily Mail-reading stock market speculator.
    BTW, the corporate asset transfer market has slowed significantly in the last 6 weeks.

    That's usually a pretty good, if opaque, leading indicator
  • Options
    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    HurstLlama said:

    @Charles

    "Looks like the implied outcome is minority government *and* most likely a repeat election within 12 months"

    A couple of weeks back Shadsy did an article on here on that very scenario and Ladbrookes were offering what I thought were very attractive odds. You may want to have a look at their site.

    2 elections in 2015 is 7/1 with Shadsy
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,033
    JonnyJimmy said:

    Question for the kippers:

    What if Mike Read had done a Bhangra song instead of the calypso song, and had sung it in a mock Indian accent. Would that have been just as acceptable to you?

    The ukip winter festival single


    http://youtu.be/oA0aikxt-r8
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,771
    Flightpath said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    malcolmg said:

    Flightpath said:

    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

    OK.

    I don't think "Little Britain" is racist.

    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

    OK.

    I don't think "Little Britain" is racist.

    No its satirising racism and kippers fall for it.
    So it is fine to be racist as long as you call it satire.
    The man's a turnip malc.

    I'm sitting here watching The Quiet Man on Film 4 trying to figure out if I should be violently offend or if it's satire or if one or two PBers have lost the plot and need to get out more.

    Begorrah.
    You just prove that kippers from Farage down have no sense of self awareness. Thanks for confirming to me what sort of people you are.
    You will be condoning profiteers on the Tower poppies next.
    Its really quite pathetic seeing kippers stick their heads so far up their backsides using the BBC and its absurd comedians to defend the gratuitous use of a racist slur (about her own supporters!).

    It is of course not 'fine to be racist as long as you call it satire'. But that is not what happened. The programme was attacking casual racism (not in a very brilliant way IMHO) indeed the fact that kippers cannot see through that shows how poorly designed the 'comedy' was.
    I'm not a kipper. I've never voted UKIP. I have voted conservative and voted for Cameron in 2010. So does that make you a total arse by association or was I being satirical ?

    Or maybe you should just get a life.
  • Options
    manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    Cameron and May's great act of cowardice

    Cameron facing rebellion as he denies MPs vote on European arrest warrant

    Commons Speaker John Bercow says public would regard surprise decision not to allow vote on EAW as ‘contemptuous

    http://www.theguardian.com/law/2014/nov/10/cameron-facing-rebellion-denied-mps-vote-european-arrest-warrant

    And these are the people who will lead the Tories into the election......
  • Options
    Swiss_BobSwiss_Bob Posts: 619
    JonnyJimmy said:

    Question for the kippers:

    What if Mike Read had done a Bhangra song instead of the calypso song, and had sung it in a mock Indian accent. Would that have been just as acceptable to you?

    Are white people with dreadlocks racist.

    That's 'cultural appropriation' isn't it?
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2014
    Tory majority out to 6.8:

    http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.101416490
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    HurstLlama said:

    @Charles

    "Looks like the implied outcome is minority government *and* most likely a repeat election within 12 months"

    A couple of weeks back Shadsy did an article on here on that very scenario and Ladbrookes were offering what I thought were very attractive odds. You may want to have a look at their site.

    Thanks, but don't really do anything beyond fun bets (you do realise you are going to be buying me lunch after the next election, don't you?)

    Given the time I have, I'd rather spend it considering EIS investments. (Not, of course, I am suggesting that is tax-deductible gambling, not at all)
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,033
    Flightpath said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    malcolmg said:

    Flightpath said:

    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

    OK.

    I don't think "Little Britain" is racist.

    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    So the kipper line on "ting tong" is that the BBC were racist and so it's ok for UKIP candidates to be racist too, and that their Parliamentary candidate should be excused for using it because she is a bit thick.

    OK.

    I don't think "Little Britain" is racist.

    No its satirising racism and kippers fall for it.
    So it is fine to be racist as long as you call it satire.
    The man's a turnip malc.

    I'm sitting here watching The Quiet Man on Film 4 trying to figure out if I should be violently offend or if it's satire or if one or two PBers have lost the plot and need to get out more.

    Begorrah.
    You just prove that kippers from Farage down have no sense of self awareness. Thanks for confirming to me what sort of people you are.
    You will be condoning profiteers on the Tower poppies next.
    Its really quite pathetic seeing kippers stick their heads so far up their backsides using the BBC and its absurd comedians to defend the gratuitous use of a racist slur (about her own supporters!).

    It is of course not 'fine to be racist as long as you call it satire'. But that is not what happened. The programme was attacking casual racism (not in a very brilliant way IMHO) indeed the fact that kippers cannot see through that shows how poorly designed the 'comedy' was.
    Was the programme tackling casual racism?? How?
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,911
    May keeps saying we have been clear when all sides and the Speaker think not.
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    "One in three UK jobs will be performed by machine in as little as 20 years"

    Didn't they say the same thing on 'Tomorrow's World' some 30 years ago..?
  • Options
    Swiss_BobSwiss_Bob Posts: 619
    SeanT said:

    Brought to you by I am Always Right Incorporated:

    some pb-ers will remember a big debate we had on here about the robotisation of work. My thesis was that a load of jobs were at risk from robots and digital technology (obviously true) and that one of them was translater/interpreter, so I would no longer be advising my 8 year old daughters to learn Mandarin.

    At the time many fiercely objected, saying computers could never be translators, blah blah, the Lib Dem Switchers are crucial, yada yada, you're a Nazi whoremongering pedo, etc etc

    Here ya go:


    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/11/10/rise_of_the_robot_workforce_theyre_after_your_job/

    "One in three UK jobs will be performed by machine in as little as 20 years, according to a new study carried out the University of Oxford and Deloitte...

    With constantly improving machine translation, foreign language skills also take a hit."

    That study was probably brought to you by someone with the insight of the IBM executive that forecast the worldwide market for PCs would be six.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited November 2014
    SeanT said:

    Brought to you by I am Always Right Incorporated:

    some pb-ers will remember a big debate we had on here about the robotisation of work. My thesis was that a load of jobs were at risk from robots and digital technology

    At the time many fiercely objected, saying computers could never be translators, blah blah, the Lib Dem Switchers are crucial, yada yada, you're a Nazi whoremongering pedo, etc etc

    Here ya go:


    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/11/10/rise_of_the_robot_workforce_theyre_after_your_job/

    "One in three UK jobs will be performed by machine in as little as 20 years, according to a new study carried out the University of Oxford and Deloitte...

    With constantly improving machine translation, foreign language skills also take a hit."

    Kippers will block these silver fiends from crossing our borders, hidden on trains from the continent with a new "illegal robot police force".

    Alternatively we should ensure that it is British people designing, building and programming the robots by teaching them about maths n science and not global warming and other religions.

  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    TGOHF said:

    HurstLlama said:

    @Charles

    "Looks like the implied outcome is minority government *and* most likely a repeat election within 12 months"

    A couple of weeks back Shadsy did an article on here on that very scenario and Ladbrookes were offering what I thought were very attractive odds. You may want to have a look at their site.

    Again - will voters not tend away from results that give this outcome ?

    "Britain heads for hung parly and another GE in 12 months time as 14% of people support Ukip".

    I suggest that this will have a squeezing impact with perhaps only one of the main parties benefiting.
    Will voters change their vote based on predictions of the likely outcome? I very much doubt it. Firstly, I don't think the vast majority of voters pay that much attention (I think the tactical voting is much over-blown on this site). Secondly, if they do change how do they know what to change to in order to avoid an unstable government?
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,911
    No vote on EAW

    Cameron gone back on his word.

    Or just another lie
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    JonnyJimmy said:

    HurstLlama said:

    @Charles

    "Looks like the implied outcome is minority government *and* most likely a repeat election within 12 months"

    A couple of weeks back Shadsy did an article on here on that very scenario and Ladbrookes were offering what I thought were very attractive odds. You may want to have a look at their site.

    2 elections in 2015 is 7/1 with Shadsy
    That doesn't strike me as a particularly likely outcome.

    May 5th election.

    A couple of weeks to sort the mess out.

    Minimum 6 months for a government to run (doubt the voters would be impressed with a revote in much less than that). Especially if it is minority with S&C to back it up.

    Immediately puts you into mid November - wouldn't most governments try to push through to the Spring?
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,771
    Swiss_Bob said:

    JonnyJimmy said:

    Question for the kippers:

    What if Mike Read had done a Bhangra song instead of the calypso song, and had sung it in a mock Indian accent. Would that have been just as acceptable to you?

    Are white people with dreadlocks racist.

    That's 'cultural appropriation' isn't it?
    What about citizen Khan where a UK born bloke puts on a pakistani accent ?

    Is he a racist, an uncle tom, highly amusing in a post modernist ironical sense or some guy who sees a way of making some cash ?
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Damn I missed The SPIN market opening.

    UKIP were probably a buy at 10 given the huge potential upside. Personally I'd have priced it at ~11.5-13.5.

    I mean who's going to sell ukip at 8 seats?
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    HurstLlama said:

    TGOHF said:

    HurstLlama said:

    @Charles

    "Looks like the implied outcome is minority government *and* most likely a repeat election within 12 months"

    A couple of weeks back Shadsy did an article on here on that very scenario and Ladbrookes were offering what I thought were very attractive odds. You may want to have a look at their site.

    Again - will voters not tend away from results that give this outcome ?

    "Britain heads for hung parly and another GE in 12 months time as 14% of people support Ukip".

    I suggest that this will have a squeezing impact with perhaps only one of the main parties benefiting.
    Secondly, if they do change how do they know what to change to in order to avoid an unstable government?
    Vote for a party that can realistically get over 300 seats...
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,033
    Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn)
    10/11/2014 17:48
    Govt avoids a total disaster on their own EAW (non-)motion by just 5 votes. Safe to say this ugly sleight of hand has appallingly backfired.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2014
    How does this work? If I think UKIP are going to win 20 seats, do I buy or sell now, or do I have to wait until the page is showing UKIP on 20 seats (if that ever happens)?
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Pong said:

    Damn I missed The SPIN market opening.

    UKIP were probably a buy at 10 given the huge potential upside. Personally I'd have priced it at ~11.5-13.5.

    I mean who's going to sell ukip at 8 seats?

    I would sell UKIP at 8 , certainly all those who forecast that UKIP would win the South Yorks PCC election will be buyers .
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Will there be limits on EU and non-EU robots ?

    May has lain down on the tracks to save Ed - astonishing suicide bombing.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,033
    Alanbrooke said:

    Swiss_Bob said:

    JonnyJimmy said:

    Question for the kippers:

    What if Mike Read had done a Bhangra song instead of the calypso song, and had sung it in a mock Indian accent. Would that have been just as acceptable to you?

    Are white people with dreadlocks racist.

    That's 'cultural appropriation' isn't it?
    What about citizen Khan where a UK born bloke puts on a pakistani accent ?

    Is he a racist, an uncle tom, highly amusing in a post modernist ironical sense or some guy who sees a way of making some cash ?
    It's ok because decades of diversity awareness and equality measures have been so successful that we have to see what colour, gender or sexual preference someone is before deciding whether what they say is funny or not
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,673
    ICM Guardian

    Con 31 (nc) Lab 32 (-3) LD 11 (nc) UKIP 14 (nc) Greens 6 (+2)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/10/icm-guardian-poll-support-labour-drops-criticism-ed-miliband
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,602
    JonnyJimmy said:

    Question for the kippers:

    What if Mike Read had done a Bhangra song instead of the calypso song, and had sung it in a mock Indian accent. Would that have been just as acceptable to you?

    I hate Bhangra :)
  • Options
    Swiss_BobSwiss_Bob Posts: 619
    If we've got cheap robots I don't think we'll be worrying whether we have jobs or not.

    We'll be worrying about what the people who own the robots have in mind for the rest of us.
This discussion has been closed.