politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Rochester leaflet that points to how CON will try to ma

antifrank said:

Flightpath said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

Norm said:

NickPalmer said:

dr_spyn said:

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 1m1 minute ago
National Opinion Poll (Populus):
LAB - 36% (+1)
CON - 34% (+1)
UKIP - 13% (-1)
LDEM - 8% (-1)
GRN - 4% (-)

35% strategy unnecessarily cautious?

Even as a hardened politico who's been saying for months that opinion is entrenched, I'm struck by the fact that this week seems to have done Labour's VI no damage whatsoever. But we'll see if Ashcroft or ICM suggest differently.

To me the Ukip share is too low (and I say that as a non Kipper!). However the "bad" publicity for Ed may well have not done any harm to your party.

Equally my impression is that the EU row doesn't seem to have done the Tories any damage. No one is buying Osborne's spin but people seem resigned to us paying the £1.7 billion and there isn't the anger out there you might have expected .Labour should be pushing the £1.7 billion is 60,000 nurses etc but they can't for obvious reasons.Surprised UKIP haven't made more of this.

No one is paying £1.7 billion so your equation with nurses is facile. Plus whatever the sums are its a one off so there would be no money for x nurses next year. On top of which the x nurses would pay tax but cost us all NI payments and holiday pay and pensions contributions.

Perhaps the general public other than UKIP members are more used to getting unexpected bills than politicians, and realise that however annoying they may be, they have to be paid.

FTFY

TheScreamingEagles said:

@LordAshcroft: The campaign against Mark Reckless in Rochester & Strood is now sustained negative attacks against him rather than against UKIP. #willitwork

Is Ashcroft thinking of defecting to UKIP?

Flightpath said:

Swiss_Bob said:

@TSE

For all its faults I cannot see how UKIP is any worse than Labour or the Tories.

I would not wish to bore everyone to death with my long, detailed and referenced diatribe justifying that but I'm sure those on both sides would agree that I can do it with reference to the 'other' side.

Swiss_Bob said:

@TSE

For all its faults I cannot see how UKIP is any worse than Labour or the Tories.

I would not wish to bore everyone to death with my long, detailed and referenced diatribe justifying that but I'm sure those on both sides would agree that I can do it with reference to the 'other' side.

If you make the assumption that they would not be any 'different' then you may be right. Of course this assumption would send kippers into apolplexy. But the reality is that kipper ministers would make as many mistakes as the next one when confronted by impossible decisions and no matter how certain you are about anything the law of unintended consequences always comes back to haunt you.

My view is they would be a lot worse (unless what they are saying now is a total pack of lies) but then again the very effort they make only gifts us a europhile labour govt lef by a crypto markist.

As opposed to a europhile Tory government led by a very slippery individual? Tories v Labour is splitting hairs.

@GuidoFawkes: Uh oh. CBI aren't happy with Ed: "Labour’s tendency to market invention could deter investment."

@GuidoFawkes: So Ed Miliband went to see big business. He took awkward questions, said very little and then got a kicking from his hosts.

isam said:

rottenborough said:

Danny565 said:

Even as a certified bleeding-heart liberal, the argument that immigrants "do jobs that Brits can't do / are unable to do" makes me wince. It wasn't that long ago that firms were expected to pay for young employees to have some training.

At some point, if we want to avoid "society" disintegrating altogether, we're going to have to ask ourselves whether businesses SHOULD be expected to have some social duties/responsibilities, rather than just being out to line their pockets as much as possible with the cheapest and most "efficient" labour they can find.

But what about the jobs that Brits 'won't' do?

They'll do them if you reduce their benefits for knocking jobs like that back

why would you take those jobs when you get more in benefits. It is the vicious circle of subsidised wages, so businesses can pay poverty wages and benefits that are much higher than the poverty wages. Lots and lots of people will just take the higher renumeration and who could blame them.

Good news. Huge new coal deposit found under the Forth. Might have rescued Alex if the oil price stayed low (and he'd won).

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-29987033

Obviously, not everyone is happy: But environmental group WWF Scotland said the move was "irresponsible" and should be "a complete non-starter".

Labour just been granted another urgent Parliamentary question.

And got smacked, again.

@DPJHodges: George Osborne has just given a masterclass in how to respond to a PNQ.

OldKingCole said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

Norm said:

JonnyJimmy said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

One voter told us she was going to vote UKIP because the personalised letter to her from Kelly Tolhurst contained lots of spelling errors.

I don't think that would make me vote UKIP, but it would definitely put me off voting for Tolhurst.

Amusing that really from Ukiper Taranto. For some years now Ukip have told us politicians are all the same which as a fair proportion of them originate from the public school, Oxbridge, lawyer/political adviser route and then choose the party most likely to further their career probably isn't that far off the truth. And I'm sure all of them can spell or use their spellcheckers very well. Tolhurst with her secondary modern education and small business background certainly doesn't fit that bill and just maybe given the pressures of her hectic campaigning she made a couple of spelling errors but then spelling isn't the strongest suit of a number of successful entrepreneurs I know. All parties need politicians cut from more than one cloth.

I remember my family receiving a letter from Caroline Bearder ,The Lib Dem MEP for the South East ,prior to the last Euro elections addressed to each of us as "Dear Friend". My wife immediately told me that she would never vote for anybody who called her a friend when she had never met them (though she would never have voted for them anyway of course). Little things...

Strangers are just friends you haven't met yet.

Or in UKIP land, enemies are just strangers you haven't met yet....

OMG Ossy had the guardian out.

Stunning.

Ed Balls is crap as well.

Note to Labour, never appoint anyone called Ed as leader.

No really he did

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B2F0p0CIcAAPgtl.jpg

Swiss_Bob said:

Not in particular disagreement. However, I would not have engaged Scipio in a stand up fight in those circumstances, fight them on the beaches? draw them out into line chasing a mirage as Wellington did to Marshall ? in Spain?

Marmont, was it not? At Salamanca?

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Bob, I can very strongly recommend the military histories/biographies by Theodore Ayrault Dodge of Alexander, Hannibal and Caesar, but be very wary when buying them as it seems abridged versions (which are *not* marked as abridged) have come onto the market. They're pretty hefty, around 700 pages for the first two and more for Caesar.

If you're considering buying one, I've got them and would be happy to confirm how many pages it should have (it looks like an identical [including typeface] version as the original release so the page number, I think, should remain consistent. Otherwise the maps and diagrams, of which there are many, may be missing).

For primary sources, Polybius and Livy are what you should go for. There's Appian too, apparently, but I've yet to read that. Polybius is more accurate but his account ends just after Cannae.

Dodge sounds very certain about stuff I thought was in doubt, such as how legions fought, for example. What, for example, are the contemporary sources that back up his claim the legions fought in a checkerboard pattern?

Scott_P said:

@GuidoFawkes: Uh oh. CBI aren't happy with Ed: "Labour’s tendency to market invention could deter investment."

@GuidoFawkes: So Ed Miliband went to see big business. He took awkward questions, said very little and then got a kicking from his hosts.

I remember Tony Blair at a CBI conference in Birmingham in 1997,shortly before the Election.He had the Midlands business community eating out of his hands and you knew he had the Election in the bag.Genuinely charismatic and charming but with apparent substance.We all know how it turned out of course but what a contrast with Ed.

Sad news — 68 turbine wind farm off Lowestoft cancelled:

http://www.lowestoftjournal.co.uk/news/loss_of_lowestoft_wind_turbine_project_is_major_blow_says_bob_blizzard_1_3835896

taffys said:

As screaming eagles says, the hatred comes from UKIP. That you spout on about 'white' working class shows your prejudice and bigotry.

This kind of comment is the very thing Lord Ashcroft is annoyed about. The plain fact is that millions are either voting UKIP or contemplating it. The conservatives will need a deep reservoir of these votes to get anwhere close to the winning post.

In what world are you going to win someone's vote by labelling them a bigot.

Yeah, I'm a terrible bigot because I want a a relatively right-wing economic policy while being socially liberal..

I'm such a bigot.

Indigo said:

antifrank said:

Indigo said:

OldKingCole said:

TGOHF said:

FalseFlag said:

MarkHopkins said:

Immigration will be a minor issue for WWC jobs, compared to this...
ROBOTS of the FUTURE will EXTERMINATE UK jobs – study
One in three UK jobs will be performed by machine in as little as 20 years, according to a new study carried out by Deloitte and the University of Oxford.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/11/10/rise_of_the_robot_workforce_theyre_after_your_job/

Another reason we don't need immigration.

Are Kippers anti-robots ? Coming over here taking our jobs !

Oh come on. We’ve heard this since the first powered loom was invented.

Well yes, except even burger flipping is about to disappear, these are being trialed right now and are proving a success http://momentummachines.com/

Kippers, the descendants of the Luddites. It makes a lot of sense.

Meanwhile, Britain has record numbers in employment.

There is a continuing trend for low skilled jobs to be replaced by machines, or moved off shore. A fair chunk of our population wasn't gifted with the abilities to do more than this. What's your great plan to give them the self respect and social contribution of a job then ? Sounds like "let them eat cake" to me.

In the longer run, we desperately need to improve our skills training and education for those in the middle. But while employment is still rising to record levels, worrying about where the jobs are coming from is all a bit chicken licken.

Flightpath said:

Swiss_Bob said:

I really can't understand the hatred of the WWW by the liberal metropolitan elite (middle classes) unless I see it as 'fear of'.

Is that right, do they scare you, those of the above bent (there seem plenty of you on here)?

As screaming eagles says, the hatred comes from UKIP. That you spout on about 'white' working class shows your prejudice and bigotry. What makes me laugh is you're so dim you cannot see how you are being played by Farage.

I do find it amusing to be told how much I hate. I am not sure what it is I hate but apparently I do and excessively so. I am grateful to Mr Eagles and Mr. Path for pointing this side of my personality/experience of life out to me, without them I might have gone on in a state of blissful ignorance.

I am also indebted to Mr. Path, and others, for pointing out how stupid I am. That came as quite a shock, having lived so long under the impression of being quite reasonably intelligent. Still at least I know now.

However, stupid and hate-filled though I am, I have never resorted to labelling people based on silly stereotypes. Saying all members of x group have y characteristic is at best rude at worst criminal. Regardless of where a particular example falls on the spectrum it is behaviour generally used, in my experience, by people who cannot make a coherent argument based on fact and logic.

TheScreamingEagles said:

OMG Ossy had the guardian out.

Stunning.

Ed Balls is crap as well.

Note to Labour, never appoint anyone called Ed as leader.

Longshanks' first name was Ed

antifrank said:

Why did George Osborne read the Guardian in the House of Commons?

He was quoting Ed Balls' article.

KentRising said:

Flightpath said:

Swiss_Bob said:

@TSE

For all its faults I cannot see how UKIP is any worse than Labour or the Tories.

I would not wish to bore everyone to death with my long, detailed and referenced diatribe justifying that but I'm sure those on both sides would agree that I can do it with reference to the 'other' side.

Swiss_Bob said:

@TSE

For all its faults I cannot see how UKIP is any worse than Labour or the Tories.

I would not wish to bore everyone to death with my long, detailed and referenced diatribe justifying that but I'm sure those on both sides would agree that I can do it with reference to the 'other' side.

If you make the assumption that they would not be any 'different' then you may be right. Of course this assumption would send kippers into apolplexy. But the reality is that kipper ministers would make as many mistakes as the next one when confronted by impossible decisions and no matter how certain you are about anything the law of unintended consequences always comes back to haunt you.

My view is they would be a lot worse (unless what they are saying now is a total pack of lies) but then again the very effort they make only gifts us a europhile labour govt lef by a crypto markist.

As opposed to a europhile Tory government led by a very slippery individual? Tories v Labour is splitting hairs.

You continue to demonstrate the dreamworld you live in.
The tories nhave saisd they do not believem in and will not be a part of the EU's ever closer union. Osborne the other day said that the EU was turning in to a Euro Union and we were going to be outside it.
The tories offer renegotiation and a referendum.
The pretense you spout shows how far you have to go to justify your prejudice. Kippers hate. Its their common factor. In an earlier post you chastised Mr Smithson for pointing out Farage was happy to see us all poorer (except him of course) as part of leaving the EU the EU by quoting the same arguments as Ed Balls. UKIP are morphing into not just an intolerant party but a left wing totalitarian party - framed of course by crude nationalism.

@jameschappers: .@LordAshcroft National Poll: CON 30%, LAB 29%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 16%, GRN 7%

malcolmg said:

RobC said:

john_zims said:

@Casino_Royale

'Someone linked on the last thread that there are 'secret' plans to further slash law & order and defence next year?'

What's the problem?

The UK has the most generous legal aid system by a country mile in the entire EU and our military spending is the highest of any EU country and we have the third largest military force in NATO. .

On legal aid I've been told by lawyer friends that it's been savagely cut back in the last year or so?

There was a lawyer on radio Scotland on Sunday whinging that he was only getting £48 an hour from the public to defend the great unwashed nowadays and what a travesty of justice it was to expect him to have to toil for such a pittance.

How mean of the English not to give the whining Scotchman more English money! His arm must ache from holding his hand out for so long!

antifrank said:

Why did George Osborne read the Guardian in the House of Commons?

It's his favourite newspaper.

Bond_James_Bond said:

Swiss_Bob said:

Not in particular disagreement. However, I would not have engaged Scipio in a stand up fight in those circumstances, fight them on the beaches? draw them out into line chasing a mirage as Wellington did to Marshall ? in Spain?

Marmont, was it not? At Salamanca?

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Bob, I can very strongly recommend the military histories/biographies by Theodore Ayrault Dodge of Alexander, Hannibal and Caesar, but be very wary when buying them as it seems abridged versions (which are *not* marked as abridged) have come onto the market. They're pretty hefty, around 700 pages for the first two and more for Caesar.

If you're considering buying one, I've got them and would be happy to confirm how many pages it should have (it looks like an identical [including typeface] version as the original release so the page number, I think, should remain consistent. Otherwise the maps and diagrams, of which there are many, may be missing).

For primary sources, Polybius and Livy are what you should go for. There's Appian too, apparently, but I've yet to read that. Polybius is more accurate but his account ends just after Cannae.

Dodge sounds very certain about stuff I thought was in doubt, such as how legions fought, for example. What, for example, are the contemporary sources that back up his claim the legions fought in a checkerboard pattern?

I'll get back to you when I find the £60 for "Hannibal: A History of the Art of War Among the Carthaginians and Romans Down to the Battle of Pydna, 168 BC, with a Detailed Account of the Second Punic War (Hardcover)" and I've read the ten volumes Livy wrote on the subject.

I may be some time.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Changes since last week

Con (nc) Lab (nc) LD (nc) UKIP (no change) Greens (plus 1)

Level-pegging seems to be the new normal with Ashcroft. Prior to September, his polls had Labour ahead by 4% on average.

Flightpath said:

KentRising said:

Flightpath said:

Swiss_Bob said:

@TSE

For all its faults I cannot see how UKIP is any worse than Labour or the Tories.

I would not wish to bore everyone to death with my long, detailed and referenced diatribe justifying that but I'm sure those on both sides would agree that I can do it with reference to the 'other' side.

Swiss_Bob said:

@TSE

For all its faults I cannot see how UKIP is any worse than Labour or the Tories.

I would not wish to bore everyone to death with my long, detailed and referenced diatribe justifying that but I'm sure those on both sides would agree that I can do it with reference to the 'other' side.

If you make the assumption that they would not be any 'different' then you may be right. Of course this assumption would send kippers into apolplexy. But the reality is that kipper ministers would make as many mistakes as the next one when confronted by impossible decisions and no matter how certain you are about anything the law of unintended consequences always comes back to haunt you.

My view is they would be a lot worse (unless what they are saying now is a total pack of lies) but then again the very effort they make only gifts us a europhile labour govt lef by a crypto markist.

As opposed to a europhile Tory government led by a very slippery individual? Tories v Labour is splitting hairs.

You continue to demonstrate the dreamworld you live in.
The tories nhave saisd they do not believem in and will not be a part of the EU's ever closer union. Osborne the other day said that the EU was turning in to a Euro Union and we were going to be outside it.
The tories offer renegotiation and a referendum.
The pretense you spout shows how far you have to go to justify your prejudice. Kippers hate. Its their common factor. In an earlier post you chastised Mr Smithson for pointing out Farage was happy to see us all poorer (except him of course) as part of leaving the EU the EU by quoting the same arguments as Ed Balls. UKIP are morphing into not just an intolerant party but a left wing totalitarian party - framed of course by crude nationalism.

You genuinely think that there are any circumstances under which Cameron will campaign for 'out' in an EU referendum? You are delusional.

As I've said before, I have no affiliation with UKIP. I'm a former Tory completely disillusioned with the party I was once a member of.

The only person on this website currently "spouting hate" is you - towards people who profess to sympathise with a political party you dislike.

If not minding that some people at the top get a little poorer if it led to the greater good of society makes me "intolerant", then, yes, I'm intolerant.

So that's why he closed his blog.


The Labour party has hired a Bolton-based betting expert to be its general election data guru after a bidding war with Ukip.

Ian Warren, 44, a self-taught election forecaster, spent the past 10 years working as a sole trader betting on election outcomes in the UK and the US.

Just like blogger Nate Silver across the Atlantic, Warren correctly predicted the electoral college in the 2008 and 2012 American elections, earning big money for his secretive corporate clients and funding his PhD in statistics and criminology at the University of Manchester.

He has no formal training in political science and operates outside the Westminster bubble, having just finished his thesis on the distribution of violence in Greater Manchester.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/10/labour-party-ukip-data-ian-warren?CMP=share_btn_tw

taffys said:

In what world are you going to win someone's vote by labelling them a bigot.

As an electoral strategy, I suppose it deserves credit for originality, at least.

@Swiss_Bob

'Yeah, I'm a terrible bigot because I want a a relatively right-wing economic policy while being socially liberal..'

The perfect profile for the Lib Dems,at least the orange part.

felix said:

bigjohnowls said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

Why did George Osborne read the Guardian in the House of Commons?

Ed Balls did an article in the guardian last Friday about the 1.7bn.

George pointed out that not once did Ed mention the rebate.

Unlike the EU press release on 27/10/14

Which gave NO figures. Give it up - the public have spoken in favour of the government on this and Balls has been found out today by a cleverer opponent.

Which part of "Let me point out in this respect that the UK will benefit from the UK rebate for the additional payments in 2014. This will be budgeted in May 2015 when the UK rebate is recalculated." in the attached do you not understand.

Osbournes blatant lie will be found out

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-14-723_en.htm

TheScreamingEagles said:

So that's why he closed his blog.


The Labour party has hired a Bolton-based betting expert to be its general election data guru after a bidding war with Ukip.

Ian Warren, 44, a self-taught election forecaster, spent the past 10 years working as a sole trader betting on election outcomes in the UK and the US.

Just like blogger Nate Silver across the Atlantic, Warren correctly predicted the electoral college in the 2008 and 2012 American elections, earning big money for his secretive corporate clients and funding his PhD in statistics and criminology at the University of Manchester.

He has no formal training in political science and operates outside the Westminster bubble, having just finished his thesis on the distribution of violence in Greater Manchester.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/10/labour-party-ukip-data-ian-warren?CMP=share_btn_tw

Soooo ... a PhD in stats and criminology leads to a deep understanding of politics, does it? Makes sense to me.

I'd probably be a buyer of Lib Dem seats.

Not sure of the others.

john_zims said:

@Swiss_Bob

'Yeah, I'm a terrible bigot because I want a a relatively right-wing economic policy while being socially liberal..'

The perfect profile for the Lib Dems,at least the orange part.

:-) Oh God I'm secretly a LibDem.

TheScreamingEagles said:

So that's why he closed his blog.


The Labour party has hired a Bolton-based betting expert to be its general election data guru after a bidding war with Ukip.

Ian Warren, 44, a self-taught election forecaster, spent the past 10 years working as a sole trader betting on election outcomes in the UK and the US.

Just like blogger Nate Silver across the Atlantic, Warren correctly predicted the electoral college in the 2008 and 2012 American elections, earning big money for his secretive corporate clients and funding his PhD in statistics and criminology at the University of Manchester.

He has no formal training in political science and operates outside the Westminster bubble, having just finished his thesis on the distribution of violence in Greater Manchester.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/10/labour-party-ukip-data-ian-warren?CMP=share_btn_tw

The US electoral college is a hell of alot easier to predict than our GEs.

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ooh

@MSmithsonPB: Mid points on the SportingIndex http://t.co/ERIjhtuNTk Commons seats spreads
LAB 294 seats
CON 276
LD 28
UKIP 9
SNP 21

Eh? Have I missed something? I thought SPIN dropped out of the politics game ages ago?

They are back.

Flightpath said:

taffys said:

As screaming eagles says, the hatred comes from UKIP. That you spout on about 'white' working class shows your prejudice and bigotry.

This kind of comment is the very thing Lord Ashcroft is annoyed about. The plain fact is that millions are either voting UKIP or contemplating it. The conservatives will need a deep reservoir of these votes to get anwhere close to the winning post.

In what world are you going to win someone's vote by labelling them a bigot.

Then the intolerants should stop coming out with their racial 'ting tong' comments. They should also decide what the priorities of hate are. Poles are white and have a strong christian work ethic. But UKIP hate them. Putin of course is a totalitarian atheistic dictator and kippers love him. I guess because he is a crude nationalist which Farage and other thick kippers associate with 'strong'.
Just how do you argue with proponents who spout this rubbish (as opposed to voters who are subject to the propaganda) without pointing out just what they are?

I neither hate Poles, nor love Putin.

antifrank said:

Here's a table that should concentrate a few Labour MPs' minds:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B2F6KVACMAA3HMZ.jpg:large

Hmm. Those swing voters have quite a bias to the blues (or against Miliband), don't they.

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ooh

@MSmithsonPB: Mid points on the SportingIndex http://t.co/ERIjhtuNTk Commons seats spreads
LAB 294 seats
CON 276
LD 28
UKIP 9
SNP 21

Eh? Have I missed something? I thought SPIN dropped out of the politics game ages ago?

Looks good for my bet w @AudreyAnne UKIP seats x4 to beat/or equal Lib Dems

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ooh

@MSmithsonPB: Mid points on the SportingIndex http://t.co/ERIjhtuNTk Commons seats spreads
LAB 294 seats
CON 276
LD 28
UKIP 9
SNP 21

Eh? Have I missed something? I thought SPIN dropped out of the politics game ages ago?

They are back.

Great. Thanks.

Anyone with a BetVictor account, please let me know via vanilla mail. Have a great long term bet lined up

39% wrong IMO!!!

I neither hate Poles, nor love Putin.

There were so many straw men in that post of Flightpath's it is untrue.