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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Rochester leaflet that points to how CON will try to make the economy centre stage at GE15
CON literature in Rochester is probably a taster for GE15. Looks quite effective
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We're playing the long game.
Better to lose a battle than the war.
Take note Hannibal fans.
Lol! UKIP doesn't actually have to campaign at the election, it can sit back and let the main parties drive voters into their arms.
Because people keep bringing up the deficit?
Had he gone soft?
He got lucky at Cannae against a couple of inept Romans.
So after Cannae the myth was born that he was good.
First contact with a decent General at Zama and he gets the spanking of his life.
You can accept that the boy is a plastic-muzzie in his head; sadly the Jihadi sentiment is engrained within his heart....
:leaves-pigs-and-dogs-alone:
Actually, I have voted Conservative at every general election I've been eligible to vote in. I was a party member, and campaigned in 2010.
I now wouldn't piss on them if they were on fire.
Sorry I don't fit your narrative. Having fun doing data entry for the new system at central office?
"144,000 more immigrants than we promised" not on the leaflets?
True genius and by denying that you make yourself look foolish.
Here's an idea: why don't we sort our education system out so there's no skills shortage in the first place?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scottish-labour-party-gordon-brown-turned-down-leadership-job-9849298.html?origin=internalSearch
The respective figures for "There is recovery which I've felt" are 27:8:13
The leaflet addresses the former, but it is the latter which appears to be more closely correlated with vote intention, and the Tories can't really tell individuals that they are better off if they're not. So it doesn't look to me as though this really helps the Tories, except by a little bit at the margins.
Most people are worse off now then they were in 2010. I think that the majority of people were willing to accept this if it meant that the deficit was eliminated and so the perceived risk of the country going bankrupt was reduced. The big problem for the Tories is that they have failed on the deficit. People are worse off and the deficit is still ~£100bn a year.
That's a hard sell.
Since party political electioneering is a zero-sum game then the Tories are not out of the running, but against a competent Opposition they would surely be dead and buried with that sort of record.
But now the Green Party is offering enough seats around the country that significant numbers of Labour votes are moving there, and the WWC are starting to notice that the Labour Party is really a party for champagne socialists and metropolitan liberals, and are looking around for options. The only party offering social conservatism, and the possibility of wage protection (their other concern, and hence historic support for Labour) is UKIP. A social conservative left wing party would clean up at the election, there used to be one, I think it was called The Labour Party
Cameron actually said something sensible in his speech. The key to slowing immigration from the EU is welfare reform.
Personally I think that welfare reform could have a bigger impact than closing borders, if the tories got it right.
1) Scipio's army was made up of veterans
2) Hannibal's army were mostly raw recruits
3) By this stage the Romans had worked out how to defeat elephants, so they were no longer a great advantage
4) Scipio and his army spent months (better part of a year, I think) in Sicily beforehand, training
5) Rome had Numidian cavalry as well at this stage (due to Massinissa), so they had parity (an advantage, as it turned out) in one arm of the military which had typically been their weakest
After the battle Scipio acknowledged Hannibal's battle plan was the better. He just didn't have the material to make it work. Similarly, (a couple of centuries later) Jugurtha was a very clever man, but his soldiers let him down time and again.
I believe they come for money, more than work.
If you want to come to the UK to do a menial job, fair enough. But don't expect us to top it up with tax credits, housing benefit, free healthcare and free education for your children.
Was aware of most of the above but still feel that Hannibal should have also have been aware of it. A touch of the problem Napoleon's Armies had with Wellington if slightly reversed?
"They came on in the same old way and we defeated them in the same old way"
Whilst the Romans had learnt from their defeats, which is the way isn't it, you find a successful approach and keep using it until it fails. All depends which side of the curve you're on.
"Who will that be? I don’t know, but I have one or two names that the pundits never mention. I’m keeping them a secret."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2014/nov/10/ed-miliband-plot-labour-leadership-conservative-party
Who could he mean? Stella?
Ha, Ha.
POCUWAS.
In a couple of hours, I expect the conclusion will be reached that the sandwiches ought to make themselves.
@LadPolitics: Miliband exit odds shorten again - the latest betting.
http://t.co/uhqAD76kYm
I have got money on him at 50-1 :-)
There's not much Hannibal could've done better. He couldn't magic men out of nowhere, he had no prospect of stopping Scipio training his men in Sicily or gaining experience in Spain, and his strategy was praised as the better by Scipio after the battle.
The key lesson the Second Punic War teaches us is that it's better to have a fantastic system of governance than it is an individually spectacular general.
Don't like that so many locals are feckless layabouts that don't have enough self-respect to get off their sofas and earn a living might be more accurate. Even if being on benefits paid the same as working, you cant better yourself or your family on benefits, you can't get a rise or a promotion, you cant get the pleasure of seeing the money you make provide for your family.
Some jobs don't pay well enough for a middle class standard of living, people need to get over it, they never have and they never will, my job doesn't pay well enough for lots of things my neighbours have either, but I manage to contain my disappointment.
You paint a picture of a country with too many entitled layabouts that feel the world owes them a living, and we have had too many years of government grubbing for their votes quite happy to tell them that it does.
Innocent face
Didn't the Greeks let the Persians burn Athens rather than engage them there?
They want the state to control everything down to who gets hired for jobs.
It looks like they're scrabbling around for the best headline figures where there is a dearth of them. Take the tax one - people pay VAT too. And the last five years has exploded the myth that tax cuts win votes. It's pay rises that now do that - and this is the Tory achilles heel.
It's easy to get misled by this if you make the mistake of believing what politicians say, because the volume of the rhetoric is inversely proportional to the actual difference between the parties.
What was the Labour canvassing effort like?
I've heard from an impartial and unimpeachable source that it was non exist in Rochester this weekend.
Indeed, Nigel Farage has openly acknowledged that he would prefer to see Britain's economy impaired rather than keep current levels of immigration:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10555158/Id-rather-be-poorer-with-fewer-migrants-Farage-says.html
It's worth noting that there has been a lot of cross-party consensus on this sort of thing for a long time. Labour's tax credits were simply an expansion of the family credit system that existed at the time that they took office in 1997. While Osborne has reduced the generosity of the tax credit system the principle is still in place, and the idea of Universal Credit is simply to improve the implementation of those principles.
It's worth pointing out that IDS isn't the only person to have had problems with the implementation of this sort of thing. The introduction of the tax credit system was a massive mess that I experienced at the sharp end. I think I still have a bunch of random girocheques that the system sent me in error, that I dutifully did not cash in and then the bureaucrats insisted I pay them back for a different set of payments that didn't match with what I'd received - which they achieved by docking my future payments.
I don't know whether you saw the reasoning I gave yesterday.
1. He would get most of the Scottish vote out.
2. Voters consider him to be economically sound.
3. He's a 'big beast'.
4. Who would want to be in the Labour party run by Ed? So no issue about him standing down as he'd be back like a shot if he thought he would be PM.
5. 1-4 make him the next PM.
Assume Miliband wins, then he will be there for at least 5 and probably 10 years. Chuka is unlikely to have as good a shot at the top job as he would in 2015 following a Tory win.