Brits love white powder – politicalbetting.com

FrankBooth said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FrankBooth said:

Taz said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

TimS said:

Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.

I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.

Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock

Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.

1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

*https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/

If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.

Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.

PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.

I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.

Israel's also acting with impunity.

But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.

859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.

And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.

Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?

Without Iran there would have been no 7 October massacre and no Israeli retaliation. The source of the problem lies in Tehran.

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

@trussliz
·
9h
This week I will present a Private Members' Bill to Parliament. The Bill would protect single-sex spaces in law. It would also protect children and teenagers from making irreversible decisions about their bodies
https://x.com/trussliz/status/1731259826972274898?s=20

She's going to ban ear piercings for under 18s?

JohnLilburne said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FrankBooth said:

Taz said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

TimS said:

Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.

I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.

Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock

Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.

1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

*https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/

If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.

Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.

PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.

I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.

Israel's also acting with impunity.

But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.

859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.

And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.

Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?

Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.

TimS said:

rcs1000 said:

TimS said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

TimS said:

Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.

I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.

Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock

Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.

I don’t think we would. Quite apart from Middle Eastern politics, the world’s biggest oil producer by a factor of 2 these days is the USA. Followed by a declining Russia, and then Saudi some way below, but which would presumably be delighted to open the taps of Iran’s being attacked.

Taking the other side of this argument: oil demand is relatively price inelastic. Whether the price of oil is $50/barrel or $200/barrel, you still need to get from a to b, and your car - unless it's electric - runs on petrol.

If you removed 5 million barrels of Middle Eastern exports, through Iranian oil completely leaving the market, and some disruption in the Straits of Hormuz (through which most Middle Eastern oil flows), then I think it is entirely possible that oil prices could end up near $200.

Of course, in the medium to long term, that would result in greater investment in US tight oil, and more electrification (and therefore lower demand for oil). But in the short term, prices could go through the roof, and that would almost certainly result in a fairly miserable time for energy importers like... errr... us.

(It would, of course, be great news for Russia, which still exports lots of oil.)

Put it like that and it couldn’t be any clearer it’s an unhealthy addiction which needs to be broken. Rather than us dabbling around watering down decarbonisation plans. But the 70s shocks paved the way for the 90s oil price
depression. Something has to give. Enough blackmail.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JosiasJessop said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FrankBooth said:

Taz said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

TimS said:

Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.

I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.

Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock

Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.

1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

*https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/

If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.

Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.

PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.

I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.

Israel's also acting with impunity.

But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.

859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.

I know the source for the second line will be Hamas, but what is your source for the first?

Israel itself (via Wikipedia).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel

DecrepiterJohnL said:

HYUFD said:

@trussliz
·
9h
This week I will present a Private Members' Bill to Parliament. The Bill would protect single-sex spaces in law. It would also protect children and teenagers from making irreversible decisions about their bodies
https://x.com/trussliz/status/1731259826972274898?s=20

Liz Truss on manoeuvres? To what end? Kingmaker? Leadership of the right? (Love the Orwellian nature of protecting children and teenagers, btw).

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JohnLilburne said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FrankBooth said:

Taz said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

TimS said:

Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.

I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.

Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock

Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.

1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

*https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/

If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.

Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.

PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.

I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.

Israel's also acting with impunity.

But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.

859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.

And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.

Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?

Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.

But they are killing civilians, thousands of them, and the 2 million survivors have barely any drinking water, power, food and comms.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

HYUFD said:

@trussliz
·
9h
This week I will present a Private Members' Bill to Parliament. The Bill would protect single-sex spaces in law. It would also protect children and teenagers from making irreversible decisions about their bodies
https://x.com/trussliz/status/1731259826972274898?s=20

Liz Truss on manoeuvres? To what end? Kingmaker? Leadership of the right? (Love the Orwellian nature of protecting children and teenagers, btw).

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JohnLilburne said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JohnLilburne said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FrankBooth said:

Taz said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

TimS said:

Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.

I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.

Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock

Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.

1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

*https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/

If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.

Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.

PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.

I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.

Israel's also acting with impunity.

But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.

859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.

And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.

Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?

Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.

But they are killing civilians, thousands of them, and the 2 million survivors have barely any drinking water, power, food and comms.

Indeed. And how else do you plan to militarily defeat Hamas? Hamas haven't ventured forth to meet the Israelis on the field of battle, and neither would I expect them to.

Why must it be a military solution? Will a military solution even work?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JohnLilburne said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FrankBooth said:

Taz said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

TimS said:

Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.

I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.

Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock

Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.

1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

*https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/

If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.

Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.

PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.

I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.

Israel's also acting with impunity.

But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.

859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.

And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.

Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?

Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.

But they are killing civilians, thousands of them, and the 2 million survivors have barely any drinking water, power, food and comms.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JosiasJessop said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JohnLilburne said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FrankBooth said:

Taz said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

TimS said:

Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.

I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.

Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock

Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.

1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

*https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/

If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.

Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.

PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.

I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.

Israel's also acting with impunity.

But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.

859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.

And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.

Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?

Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.

But they are killing civilians, thousands of them, and the 2 million survivors have barely any drinking water, power, food and comms.

But your source for 'thousands of them' is utterly unreliable. Why do you believe and trust Hamas?

Well, the State Department believe the figures for one, and that's before we get to the NGOs working on the actual ground.

Taz said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

viewcode said:

Taz said:

OysterOctopus said:

Happy first day of Advent all.

My favourite Christmas film is On Her Majesty's Secret Service

It’s a good Bond movie but the apex is Moonraker.

Quotes for miles
"See that some harm comes to him."
"The tedious inevitability of an unloved season"
"You missed, Mr Bond! Did I?"
"Even in death, my munificence is boundless."
"you defy all my attempts to plan an amusing death for you."
"At least I shall have the pleasure of putting you out of my misery"

and, inevitably - "I think he's attempting re-entry sir."

Brilliant soundtrack
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0IKahbz75xo

Effects
The peak of British old-school in-camera miniatures Derek Meddings special effects. Same year as Alien (and ST:TMP, but that was American)

Space Laser Battle: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVzvlu2IsvU
Moonraker 6 launch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_VVs9t3gVyg

Research
I did the research when writing an alt-hist for alternatehistory.com. It contains this passage

"We used to be great. We built cars, ships, planes, spacecraft, starships and made them fly and spin. We lit them, painted them and filmed them, on rolling roads and shining wires. We built objects of great beauty and persuaded the world they were real. We created images that looked like nothing before or since, and they were utterly, utterly wonderful. We gave the world beauty...and now we don't. I want us to be what we used to be. I want, I want it all back the way that it was. Does that answer your question?"

The laser fight was pish. Matching lasers (not different colours for the opposing sides). I just can't get into Moonraker. It's not as bad as Diamonds Are Forever but it ain't far off.

Always loved it as a Bond movie. Great soundtrack,,great cast, cracking theme, wonderful open titles sequence and just as camp as a row of tents.

Spy Who Loved Me rocked but this just is one step better.

kinabalu said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

HYUFD said:

@trussliz
·
9h
This week I will present a Private Members' Bill to Parliament. The Bill would protect single-sex spaces in law. It would also protect children and teenagers from making irreversible decisions about their bodies
https://x.com/trussliz/status/1731259826972274898?s=20

Liz Truss on manoeuvres? To what end? Kingmaker? Leadership of the right? (Love the Orwellian nature of protecting children and teenagers, btw).

Is LOTO completely out of the question? I mean ok her 1st tenure was a total joke and ended messily. But she didn't trigger an armed insurrection to try and hang on, and she isn't facing 92 serious criminal charges, including racketeering, plus civil proceedings for fraud, tax evasion, and sexual abuse. She should be odds on surely!

DecrepiterJohnL said:

FrankBooth said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FrankBooth said:

Taz said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

TimS said:

Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.

I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.

Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock

Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.

1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

*https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/

If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.

Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.

PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.

I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.

Israel's also acting with impunity.

But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.

859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.

And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.

Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?

Without Iran there would have been no 7 October massacre and no Israeli retaliation. The source of the problem lies in Tehran.

It looks as if Iran was completely blindsided by the October 7th attacks. The only country with advanced knowledge was Israel, which disbelieved Hamas' plans.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JosiasJessop said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JosiasJessop said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JohnLilburne said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FrankBooth said:

Taz said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

TimS said:

Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.

I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.

Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock

Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.

1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

*https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/

If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.

Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.

PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.

I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.

Israel's also acting with impunity.

But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.

859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.

And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.

Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?

Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.

But they are killing civilians, thousands of them, and the 2 million survivors have barely any drinking water, power, food and comms.

But your source for 'thousands of them' is utterly unreliable. Why do you believe and trust Hamas?

Well, the State Department believe the figures for one, and that's before we get to the NGOs working on the actual ground.

The NGOs working on the ground have no visibility of total figures, do they? And I fear most of them would be reluctant to cast doubt on the figures for a number of reasons, including wanting to continue working in Gaza.

Do the State Department 'believe' the figures? Have they said they are accurate?

I believe only yesterday VP Harris stated that "too many Palestinians have died". Make of that what you will.

JosiasJessop said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JosiasJessop said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JohnLilburne said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FrankBooth said:

Taz said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

TimS said:

Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.

I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.

Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock

Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.

1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

*https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/

If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.

Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.

PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.

I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.

Israel's also acting with impunity.

But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.

859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.

And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.

Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?

Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.

But they are killing civilians, thousands of them, and the 2 million survivors have barely any drinking water, power, food and comms.

But your source for 'thousands of them' is utterly unreliable. Why do you believe and trust Hamas?

Well, the State Department believe the figures for one, and that's before we get to the NGOs working on the actual ground.

The NGOs working on the ground have no visibility of total figures, do they? And I fear most of them would be reluctant to cast doubt on the figures for a number of reasons, including wanting to continue working in Gaza.

Do the State Department 'believe' the figures? Have they said they are accurate?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Posted without comment

📸 Look at this post on Facebook
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=384234500610163&id=100070708470819&sfnsn=scwspmo

FrankBooth said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

FrankBooth said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FrankBooth said:

Taz said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

TimS said:

Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.

I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.

Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock

Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.

1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

*https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/

If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.

Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.

PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.

I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.

Israel's also acting with impunity.

But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.

859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.

And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.

Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?

Without Iran there would have been no 7 October massacre and no Israeli retaliation. The source of the problem lies in Tehran.

It looks as if Iran was completely blindsided by the October 7th attacks. The only country with advanced knowledge was Israel, which disbelieved Hamas' plans.

Do you believe Hamas could have built all those tunnels and fired all those rockets without Iranian support? Is there a factory in Gaza producing all this stuff?

DecrepiterJohnL said:

OT UK Snooker final on BBC2. Ronnie O'Sullivan needs one frame to become the oldest winner, 30 years since he was the youngest. Ding Junhui is not out of it, though, at 9-7 behind.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

FrankBooth said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

FrankBooth said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FrankBooth said:

Taz said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

TimS said:

Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.

I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.

Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock

Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.

1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

*https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/

If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.

Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.

PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.

I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.

Israel's also acting with impunity.

But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.

859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.

And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.

Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?

Without Iran there would have been no 7 October massacre and no Israeli retaliation. The source of the problem lies in Tehran.

It looks as if Iran was completely blindsided by the October 7th attacks. The only country with advanced knowledge was Israel, which disbelieved Hamas' plans.

Do you believe Hamas could have built all those tunnels and fired all those rockets without Iranian support? Is there a factory in Gaza producing all this stuff?

You are shifting the goalposts. Of course, Hamas is supported and funded by Iran. Separately from that, Iran was not consulted or forewarned of the 7th October attacks.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

DavidL said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JohnLilburne said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JohnLilburne said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FrankBooth said:

Taz said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

TimS said:

Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.

I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.

Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock

Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.

1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

*https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/

If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.

Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.

PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.

I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.

Israel's also acting with impunity.

But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.

859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.

And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.

Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?

Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.

But they are killing civilians, thousands of them, and the 2 million survivors have barely any drinking water, power, food and comms.

Indeed. And how else do you plan to militarily defeat Hamas? Hamas haven't ventured forth to meet the Israelis on the field of battle, and neither would I expect them to.

Why must it be a military solution? Will a military solution even work?

Because its a war Sunil. A war started by Hamas on 7th October. Surely you can see that?

I thought it started in 1948 (but I jest).

Luckyguy1983 said:

I'm a middle of the road Bond fan - I'm not too keen on the 'gritty and real' Bonds, or the jumping the shark with the spoofy camp ones. Goldeneye is my favourite of the series for that reason I think.

HYUFD said:

Nigel Farage denies having a pierced nipple on I'm a Celeb tonight

JohnLilburne said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

DavidL said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JohnLilburne said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JohnLilburne said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FrankBooth said:

Taz said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

TimS said:

Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.

I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.

Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock

Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.

1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

*https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/

If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.

Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.

PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.

I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.

Israel's also acting with impunity.

But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.

859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.

And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.

Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?

Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.

But they are killing civilians, thousands of them, and the 2 million survivors have barely any drinking water, power, food and comms.

Indeed. And how else do you plan to militarily defeat Hamas? Hamas haven't ventured forth to meet the Israelis on the field of battle, and neither would I expect them to.

Why must it be a military solution? Will a military solution even work?

Because its a war Sunil. A war started by Hamas on 7th October. Surely you can see that?

I thought it started in 1948 (but I jest).

1881 is the accepted date of the start of the First Aaliyah, although there had been significant Jewish settlement before then. Largely down to Ottoman weakness, and the fact they generally didn't give a flying f*** about what happened in the provinces, as long as it didn't include insurrection.

FrankBooth said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

FrankBooth said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

FrankBooth said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FrankBooth said:

Taz said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

TimS said:

Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.

I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.

Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock

Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.

1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

*https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/

If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.

Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.

PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.

I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.

Israel's also acting with impunity.

But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.

859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.

And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.

Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?

Without Iran there would have been no 7 October massacre and no Israeli retaliation. The source of the problem lies in Tehran.

It looks as if Iran was completely blindsided by the October 7th attacks. The only country with advanced knowledge was Israel, which disbelieved Hamas' plans.

Do you believe Hamas could have built all those tunnels and fired all those rockets without Iranian support? Is there a factory in Gaza producing all this stuff?

You are shifting the goalposts. Of course, Hamas is supported and funded by Iran. Separately from that, Iran was not consulted or forewarned of the 7th October attacks.

Perhaps not. Although I'm not sure what your proof is. The fact is that Israel behaves as it does because it believes it faces an existential threat to its security. So long as Tehran funds terror that threat remains. If they stopped the problem would eventually be dealt with.

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel Farage denies having a pierced nipple on I'm a Celeb tonight

So is that his leadership of the Tories over before it even starts?

StillWaters said:

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel Farage denies having a pierced nipple on I'm a Celeb tonight

So is that his leadership of the Tories over before it even starts?

Why do you think that a pierced nipple would be a negative? After all they chose a Johnson to lead them

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FrankBooth said:

Taz said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

TimS said:

Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.

I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.

Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock

Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.

1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

*https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/

If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.

Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.

PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.

I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.

Israel's also acting with impunity.

But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.

859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.

"Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians."

According to the Hamas-run Health Ministry.

I keep telling you guys in the "My Israel Right Or Wrong" brigade, if you have a better source, I'm all ears.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

FrankBooth said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

FrankBooth said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FrankBooth said:

Taz said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

TimS said:

Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.

I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.

Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock

Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.

1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

*https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/

If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.

Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.

PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.

I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.

Israel's also acting with impunity.

But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.

859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.

And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.

Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?

Without Iran there would have been no 7 October massacre and no Israeli retaliation. The source of the problem lies in Tehran.

It looks as if Iran was completely blindsided by the October 7th attacks. The only country with advanced knowledge was Israel, which disbelieved Hamas' plans.

Do you believe Hamas could have built all those tunnels and fired all those rockets without Iranian support? Is there a factory in Gaza producing all this stuff?

You are shifting the goalposts. Of course, Hamas is supported and funded by Iran. Separately from that, Iran was not consulted or forewarned of the 7th October attacks.

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

New wave of Tory MPs poised to quit politics in new year
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/12/03/conservative-mps-stand-down-new-year-lose-election-polls/ (£££)

No names, no pack drill, but the Telegraph has been told to expect more announcements after the Christmas break.

Being an opposition MP must be one of the most boring and pointless things in the world. And the Tories are facing at least 10 years of it.

Well Labour MPs have already done 13 years of it.

However it is an important job, holding the government to account and dealing with constituency casework. How the economy performs under a Labour government will also effect how long Tory MPs have to do it

LostPassword said:

DavidL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

New wave of Tory MPs poised to quit politics in new year
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/12/03/conservative-mps-stand-down-new-year-lose-election-polls/ (£££)

No names, no pack drill, but the Telegraph has been told to expect more announcements after the Christmas break.

Being an opposition MP must be one of the most boring and pointless things in the world. And the Tories are facing at least 10 years of it.

It's not completely pointless. I'm sure that the governance of Britain will be notably poorer if the Opposition has simply given up, even before it's become the Opposition. Something similar is happening with Fine Gael politicians.

It says something very bad about politics in Britain and other countries if our politicians are not at all motivated by serving the country by taking part as an opposition. There's so much poor legislation that could do with proper opposition scrutiny.

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

New wave of Tory MPs poised to quit politics in new year
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/12/03/conservative-mps-stand-down-new-year-lose-election-polls/ (£££)

No names, no pack drill, but the Telegraph has been told to expect more announcements after the Christmas break.

Being an opposition MP must be one of the most boring and pointless things in the world. And the Tories are facing at least 10 years of it.

Well Labour MPs have already done 13 years of it.

However it is an important job, holding the government to account and dealing with constituency casework. How the economy performs under a Labour government will also effect how long Tory MPs have to do it

I can fully understand and sympathise as to why some of the more able Tories will think that they have better things to do for the next decade. You can't really hold a government with a decent majority to account, they simply vote you down time after time. If the limits of your aspirations are being an overpaid under qualified social worker then fair enough but I suspect most of the more ambitious actually want to run something.

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

New wave of Tory MPs poised to quit politics in new year
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/12/03/conservative-mps-stand-down-new-year-lose-election-polls/ (£££)

No names, no pack drill, but the Telegraph has been told to expect more announcements after the Christmas break.

Being an opposition MP must be one of the most boring and pointless things in the world. And the Tories are facing at least 10 years of it.

Well Labour MPs have already done 13 years of it.

However it is an important job, holding the government to account and dealing with constituency casework. How the economy performs under a Labour government will also effect how long Tory MPs have to do it

I can fully understand and sympathise as to why some of the more able Tories will think that they have better things to do for the next decade. You can't really hold a government with a decent majority to account, they simply vote you down time after time. If the limits of your aspirations are being an overpaid under qualified social worker then fair enough but I suspect most of the more ambitious actually want to run something.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Aaron Bell MP still has not updated his Wikipedia page since being made a government whip.
https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers#whips
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aaron_Bell_(politician)

Mind you, he's not updated his photo since around 1997 by the look of it.

Eabhal said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

@trussliz
·
9h
This week I will present a Private Members' Bill to Parliament. The Bill would protect single-sex spaces in law. It would also protect children and teenagers from making irreversible decisions about their bodies
https://x.com/trussliz/status/1731259826972274898?s=20

She's going to ban ear piercings for under 18s?

How about irreversible decisions made by their parents?

TOPPING said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

FrankBooth said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

FrankBooth said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FrankBooth said:

Taz said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

TimS said:

Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.

I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.

Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock

Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.

1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

*https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/

If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.

Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.

PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.

I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.

Israel's also acting with impunity.

But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.

859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.

And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.

Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?

Without Iran there would have been no 7 October massacre and no Israeli retaliation. The source of the problem lies in Tehran.

It looks as if Iran was completely blindsided by the October 7th attacks. The only country with advanced knowledge was Israel, which disbelieved Hamas' plans.

Do you believe Hamas could have built all those tunnels and fired all those rockets without Iranian support? Is there a factory in Gaza producing all this stuff?

You are shifting the goalposts. Of course, Hamas is supported and funded by Iran. Separately from that, Iran was not consulted or forewarned of the 7th October attacks.

Thank god we have someone posting on here who is privy to the innermost machinations of the region.

TheKitchenCabinet said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FrankBooth said:

Taz said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

TimS said:

Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.

I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.

Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock

Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.

1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

*https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/

If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.

Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.

PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.

I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.

Israel's also acting with impunity.

But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.

859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.

"Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians."

According to the Hamas-run Health Ministry.

I keep telling you guys in the "My Israel Right Or Wrong" brigade, if you have a better source, I'm all ears.

More about questioning why you seem to accept Hamas figures with impunity.

Benpointer said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Tres said:

Andy_JS said:

Can anyone explain why there's a question mark over whether or not Die Hard is a Christmas movie?

It was released in the middle of summer.

Still set during Christmas!

Titanic was released in 1997, but it was set in 1912.

It’s NOT a 1912 movie though is it?

HYUFD said:

Nigel Farage denies having a pierced nipple on I'm a Celeb tonight

HYUFD said:

Nigel Farage denies having a pierced nipple on I'm a Celeb tonight

BlancheLivermore said:

JohnLilburne said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

DavidL said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JohnLilburne said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JohnLilburne said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FrankBooth said:

Taz said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

TimS said:

Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.

I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.

Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock

Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.

1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

*https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/

If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.

Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.

PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.

I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.

Israel's also acting with impunity.

But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.

859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.

And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.

Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?

Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.

But they are killing civilians, thousands of them, and the 2 million survivors have barely any drinking water, power, food and comms.

Indeed. And how else do you plan to militarily defeat Hamas? Hamas haven't ventured forth to meet the Israelis on the field of battle, and neither would I expect them to.

Why must it be a military solution? Will a military solution even work?

Because its a war Sunil. A war started by Hamas on 7th October. Surely you can see that?

I thought it started in 1948 (but I jest).

1881 is the accepted date of the start of the First Aaliyah, although there had been significant Jewish settlement before then. Largely down to Ottoman weakness, and the fact they generally didn't give a flying f*** about what happened in the provinces, as long as it didn't include insurrection.

Age ain't nothing but a number

Sunil_Prasannan said:

BlancheLivermore said:

JohnLilburne said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

DavidL said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JohnLilburne said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JohnLilburne said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FrankBooth said:

Taz said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

TimS said:

Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.

I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.

Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock

Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.

1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

*https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/

If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.

Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.

PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.

I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.

Israel's also acting with impunity.

But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.

859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.

And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.

Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?

Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.

But they are killing civilians, thousands of them, and the 2 million survivors have barely any drinking water, power, food and comms.

Indeed. And how else do you plan to militarily defeat Hamas? Hamas haven't ventured forth to meet the Israelis on the field of battle, and neither would I expect them to.

Why must it be a military solution? Will a military solution even work?

Because its a war Sunil. A war started by Hamas on 7th October. Surely you can see that?

I thought it started in 1948 (but I jest).

1881 is the accepted date of the start of the First Aaliyah, although there had been significant Jewish settlement before then. Largely down to Ottoman weakness, and the fact they generally didn't give a flying f*** about what happened in the provinces, as long as it didn't include insurrection.

Age ain't nothing but a number

"Age" is a word, not a number!

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TOPPING said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

FrankBooth said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

FrankBooth said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TimS said:

Taz said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FrankBooth said:

Taz said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

MightyAlex said:

FrankBooth said:

Alphabet_Soup said:

TimS said:

Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.

I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.

Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock

Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.

1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

*https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/

If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.

Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.

PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.

I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.

Israel's also acting with impunity.

But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.

859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.

And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.

Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?

Without Iran there would have been no 7 October massacre and no Israeli retaliation. The source of the problem lies in Tehran.

It looks as if Iran was completely blindsided by the October 7th attacks. The only country with advanced knowledge was Israel, which disbelieved Hamas' plans.

Do you believe Hamas could have built all those tunnels and fired all those rockets without Iranian support? Is there a factory in Gaza producing all this stuff?

You are shifting the goalposts. Of course, Hamas is supported and funded by Iran. Separately from that, Iran was not consulted or forewarned of the 7th October attacks.

Thank god we have someone posting on here who is privy to the innermost machinations of the region.

The Israeli army and the United States say that there is no evidence that Iran is connected with the attack by Hamas.[695] American intelligence appeared to show that Hamas's attack on Israel caught Iranian authorities by surprise.[696]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel–Hamas_war#Regional_effects

Northern_Al said:

I doubt if we will ever get a completely reliable figure on the number of deaths in Gaza. However, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the figures issued by the Hamas Health Ministry are an underestimate rather than an overestimate. A lot of bodies will be buried in the rubble, and I don't know whether there is the capacity to account for everybody.

Richard_Tyndall said:

On the sad death of Glenys Kinnock. I didn't like her politics at all. But saddened to hear of the death of anyone who was acting for their beliefs in a decent manner irrespective of whether I shared those beliefs. Particularly saddened for Neil. Losing a partner after 56 years of marriage must be devestating.

RIP