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Brits love white powder – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,070

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.
    Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?
    Without Iran there would have been no 7 October massacre and no Israeli retaliation. The source of the problem lies in Tehran.
  • Options

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.
    Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?
    Without Iran there would have been no 7 October massacre and no Israeli retaliation. The source of the problem lies in Tehran.
    It looks as if Iran was completely blindsided by the October 7th attacks. The only country with advanced knowledge was Israel, which disbelieved Hamas' plans.
  • Options

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.
    Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?
    Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

    Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,023
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    @trussliz
    ·
    9h
    This week I will present a Private Members' Bill to Parliament. The Bill would protect single-sex spaces in law. It would also protect children and teenagers from making irreversible decisions about their bodies
    https://x.com/trussliz/status/1731259826972274898?s=20

    She's going to ban ear piercings for under 18s?
    How about irreversible decisions made by their parents?
  • Options

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    Israel might be getting it wrong but their goal is clearly eradicating a hideous terrorist entity. I have sympathy with that. What is Iran's goal? Destroying Israel, dominating the middle east region and being the world's number one state sponsor of terrorism with its fingerprints all over the endless atrocities in Syria and Yemen. Got its proxies occupying the south of Lebanon too. Never mind the treatment of their own population especially women. So I don't see any moral equivalence.
    Israel seems to be murdering thousands of Palestinians for the sheer hell of it. Or maybe it's bloodlust?
    It's because the Hamas military hides among the general population. You have two choices. Don't go after the enemy, and let them attack your citizens again. Go after the enemy, and kill enemy civilians. Which would you do?
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,397

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.
    Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?
    Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

    Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.
    Who knew so many pre-teen children were in the Hamas Militia ?
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,662
    edited December 2023

    HYUFD said:

    @trussliz
    ·
    9h
    This week I will present a Private Members' Bill to Parliament. The Bill would protect single-sex spaces in law. It would also protect children and teenagers from making irreversible decisions about their bodies
    https://x.com/trussliz/status/1731259826972274898?s=20

    Liz Truss on manoeuvres? To what end? Kingmaker? Leadership of the right? (Love the Orwellian nature of protecting children and teenagers, btw).
    Divorced from reality, like the rest of them. It looks increasingly like a Berlin bunker, April 1945 scenario.

    Truss has come a long way from her liberal beginnings. Then again, if anyone knows how bad it is to have a foolish decision ruin the rest of your life...
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,220
    TimS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    I don’t think we would. Quite apart from Middle Eastern politics, the world’s biggest oil producer by a factor of 2 these days is the USA. Followed by a declining Russia, and then Saudi some way below, but which would presumably be delighted to open the taps of Iran’s being attacked.
    Taking the other side of this argument: oil demand is relatively price inelastic. Whether the price of oil is $50/barrel or $200/barrel, you still need to get from a to b, and your car - unless it's electric - runs on petrol.

    If you removed 5 million barrels of Middle Eastern exports, through Iranian oil completely leaving the market, and some disruption in the Straits of Hormuz (through which most Middle Eastern oil flows), then I think it is entirely possible that oil prices could end up near $200.

    Of course, in the medium to long term, that would result in greater investment in US tight oil, and more electrification (and therefore lower demand for oil). But in the short term, prices could go through the roof, and that would almost certainly result in a fairly miserable time for energy importers like... errr... us.

    (It would, of course, be great news for Russia, which still exports lots of oil.)
    Put it like that and it couldn’t be any clearer it’s an unhealthy addiction which needs to be broken. Rather than us dabbling around watering down decarbonisation plans. But the 70s shocks paved the way for the 90s oil price
    depression. Something has to give. Enough blackmail.
    I wrote quite a good article on this - http://theoildrum.com/node/2899 - about 15 years ago.

    (The comments under the article are well worth a read!)
  • Options
    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.
    Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?
    Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

    Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.
    Who knew so many pre-teen children were in the Hamas Militia ?
    I suspect that the conditions in Gaza are such that conducting a military campaign without significant collateral casualties is impossible
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,214

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    I know the source for the second line will be Hamas, but what is your source for the first?
    Israel itself (via Wikipedia).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel
    Thanks. But note that is: "859 Israeli civilians and at least 348 Israeli soldiers and policemen were killed..."

    Do you class policemen as civilians or not? Do the Israelis? Are policemen valid targets of mass-murdering terrorists?
  • Options

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.
    Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?
    Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

    Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.
    But they are killing civilians, thousands of them, and the 2 million survivors have barely any drinking water, power, food and comms.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,214

    HYUFD said:

    @trussliz
    ·
    9h
    This week I will present a Private Members' Bill to Parliament. The Bill would protect single-sex spaces in law. It would also protect children and teenagers from making irreversible decisions about their bodies
    https://x.com/trussliz/status/1731259826972274898?s=20

    Liz Truss on manoeuvres? To what end? Kingmaker? Leadership of the right? (Love the Orwellian nature of protecting children and teenagers, btw).
    Backbench ERG rebel and thorn in Rishi's side
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    @trussliz
    ·
    9h
    This week I will present a Private Members' Bill to Parliament. The Bill would protect single-sex spaces in law. It would also protect children and teenagers from making irreversible decisions about their bodies
    https://x.com/trussliz/status/1731259826972274898?s=20

    Liz Truss on manoeuvres? To what end? Kingmaker? Leadership of the right? (Love the Orwellian nature of protecting children and teenagers, btw).
    Divorced from reality, like the rest of them. It looks increasingly like a Berlin bunker, April 1945 scenario.
    Officer 1: Mein Fuhrer, Liz Truss...

    Officer 2:...Liz Truss didn't have enough activists. The 2022 budget fell through!
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,514
    Sam Curran finishes 2 short of 100 runs conceded in 10 overs. All bar 1 of the balls in the last over were full tosses. Utter rubbish.
  • Options

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.
    Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?
    Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

    Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.
    But they are killing civilians, thousands of them, and the 2 million survivors have barely any drinking water, power, food and comms.
    Indeed. And how else do you plan to militarily defeat Hamas? Hamas haven't ventured forth to meet the Israelis on the field of battle, and neither would I expect them to.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,214

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.
    Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?
    Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

    Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.
    But they are killing civilians, thousands of them, and the 2 million survivors have barely any drinking water, power, food and comms.
    But your source for 'thousands of them' is utterly unreliable. Why do you believe and trust Hamas?
  • Options

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.
    Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?
    Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

    Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.
    But they are killing civilians, thousands of them, and the 2 million survivors have barely any drinking water, power, food and comms.
    Indeed. And how else do you plan to militarily defeat Hamas? Hamas haven't ventured forth to meet the Israelis on the field of battle, and neither would I expect them to.
    Why must it be a military solution? Will a military solution even work?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,473

    HYUFD said:

    @trussliz
    ·
    9h
    This week I will present a Private Members' Bill to Parliament. The Bill would protect single-sex spaces in law. It would also protect children and teenagers from making irreversible decisions about their bodies
    https://x.com/trussliz/status/1731259826972274898?s=20

    Liz Truss on manoeuvres? To what end? Kingmaker? Leadership of the right? (Love the Orwellian nature of protecting children and teenagers, btw).
    Is LOTO completely out of the question? I mean ok her 1st tenure was a total joke and ended messily. But she didn't trigger an armed insurrection to try and hang on, and she isn't facing 92 serious criminal charges, including racketeering, plus civil proceedings for fraud, tax evasion, and sexual abuse. She should be odds on surely!
  • Options

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.
    Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?
    Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

    Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.
    But they are killing civilians, thousands of them, and the 2 million survivors have barely any drinking water, power, food and comms.
    But your source for 'thousands of them' is utterly unreliable. Why do you believe and trust Hamas?
    Well, the State Department believe the figures for one, and that's before we get to the NGOs working on the actual ground.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,514

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.
    Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?
    Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

    Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.
    But they are killing civilians, thousands of them, and the 2 million survivors have barely any drinking water, power, food and comms.
    Indeed. And how else do you plan to militarily defeat Hamas? Hamas haven't ventured forth to meet the Israelis on the field of battle, and neither would I expect them to.
    Why must it be a military solution? Will a military solution even work?
    Because its a war Sunil. A war started by Hamas on 7th October. Surely you can see that?
  • Options

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    I know the source for the second line will be Hamas, but what is your source for the first?
    Israel itself (via Wikipedia).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel
    Thanks. But note that is: "859 Israeli civilians and at least 348 Israeli soldiers and policemen were killed..."

    Do you class policemen as civilians or not? Do the Israelis? Are policemen valid targets of mass-murdering terrorists?
    They are listed separately in the Wiki article, I presume the IDF also listed them separately.



  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,339
    edited December 2023

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.
    Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?
    Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

    Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.
    But they are killing civilians, thousands of them, and the 2 million survivors have barely any drinking water, power, food and comms.
    A line often taken is 'Israel could obliterate Gaza if they wished, but they are choosing not to because they're not like Hamas and know their responsibilities.' I wonder if we'll reach a point when that line becomes untenable. I'm not saying there will be no ethical defence in that situation, but some have been heavily reliant upon it.
  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,815
    VAR at the snooker now
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,214

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.
    Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?
    Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

    Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.
    But they are killing civilians, thousands of them, and the 2 million survivors have barely any drinking water, power, food and comms.
    But your source for 'thousands of them' is utterly unreliable. Why do you believe and trust Hamas?
    Well, the State Department believe the figures for one, and that's before we get to the NGOs working on the actual ground.
    The NGOs working on the ground have no visibility of total figures, do they? And I fear most of them would be reluctant to cast doubt on the figures for a number of reasons, including wanting to continue working in Gaza.

    Do the State Department 'believe' the figures? Have they said they are accurate?
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.
    Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?
    Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

    Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.
    But they are killing civilians, thousands of them, and the 2 million survivors have barely any drinking water, power, food and comms.
    Indeed. And how else do you plan to militarily defeat Hamas? Hamas haven't ventured forth to meet the Israelis on the field of battle, and neither would I expect them to.
    Why must it be a military solution? Will a military solution even work?
    Because its a war Sunil. A war started by Hamas on 7th October. Surely you can see that?
    I thought it started in 1948 (but I jest).
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,668
    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Happy first day of Advent all.

    My favourite Christmas film is On Her Majesty's Secret Service

    It’s a good Bond movie but the apex is Moonraker.
    Quotes for miles
    "See that some harm comes to him."
    "The tedious inevitability of an unloved season"
    "You missed, Mr Bond! Did I?"
    "Even in death, my munificence is boundless."
    "you defy all my attempts to plan an amusing death for you."
    "At least I shall have the pleasure of putting you out of my misery"

    and, inevitably - "I think he's attempting re-entry sir."

    Brilliant soundtrack
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0IKahbz75xo

    Effects
    The peak of British old-school in-camera miniatures Derek Meddings special effects. Same year as Alien (and ST:TMP, but that was American)

    Space Laser Battle: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVzvlu2IsvU
    Moonraker 6 launch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_VVs9t3gVyg

    Research
    I did the research when writing an alt-hist for alternatehistory.com. It contains this passage

    "We used to be great. We built cars, ships, planes, spacecraft, starships and made them fly and spin. We lit them, painted them and filmed them, on rolling roads and shining wires. We built objects of great beauty and persuaded the world they were real. We created images that looked like nothing before or since, and they were utterly, utterly wonderful. We gave the world beauty...and now we don't. I want us to be what we used to be. I want, I want it all back the way that it was. Does that answer your question?"
    The laser fight was pish. Matching lasers (not different colours for the opposing sides). I just can't get into Moonraker. It's not as bad as Diamonds Are Forever but it ain't far off.
    Always loved it as a Bond movie. Great soundtrack,,great cast, cracking theme, wonderful open titles sequence and just as camp as a row of tents.

    Spy Who Loved Me rocked but this just is one step better.
    I'm a middle of the road Bond fan - I'm not too keen on the 'gritty and real' Bonds, or the jumping the shark with the spoofy camp ones. Goldeneye is my favourite of the series for that reason I think.
  • Options

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.
    Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?
    Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

    Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.
    But they are killing civilians, thousands of them, and the 2 million survivors have barely any drinking water, power, food and comms.
    But your source for 'thousands of them' is utterly unreliable. Why do you believe and trust Hamas?
    Well, the State Department believe the figures for one, and that's before we get to the NGOs working on the actual ground.
    The NGOs working on the ground have no visibility of total figures, do they? And I fear most of them would be reluctant to cast doubt on the figures for a number of reasons, including wanting to continue working in Gaza.

    Do the State Department 'believe' the figures? Have they said they are accurate?
    I believe only yesterday VP Harris stated that "too many Palestinians have died". Make of that what you will.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,214
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    @trussliz
    ·
    9h
    This week I will present a Private Members' Bill to Parliament. The Bill would protect single-sex spaces in law. It would also protect children and teenagers from making irreversible decisions about their bodies
    https://x.com/trussliz/status/1731259826972274898?s=20

    Liz Truss on manoeuvres? To what end? Kingmaker? Leadership of the right? (Love the Orwellian nature of protecting children and teenagers, btw).
    Is LOTO completely out of the question? I mean ok her 1st tenure was a total joke and ended messily. But she didn't trigger an armed insurrection to try and hang on, and she isn't facing 92 serious criminal charges, including racketeering, plus civil proceedings for fraud, tax evasion, and sexual abuse. She should be odds on surely!
    Badenoch or Braverman or Mourdant (if she holds her seat) would easily beat Truss with Tory members now and Barclay, Cleverly or Tugendhat would likely beat her with Tory MPs too
  • Options
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,162

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.
    Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?

    Without Iran there would have been no 7 October massacre and no Israeli retaliation. The source of the problem lies in Tehran.
    It looks as if Iran was completely blindsided by the October 7th attacks. The only country with advanced knowledge was Israel, which disbelieved Hamas' plans.
    Egypt warned Israel
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,162

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    Israel might be getting it wrong but their goal is clearly eradicating a hideous terrorist entity. I have sympathy with that. What is Iran's goal? Destroying Israel, dominating the middle east region and being the world's number one state sponsor of terrorism with its fingerprints all over the endless atrocities in Syria and Yemen. Got its proxies occupying the south of Lebanon too. Never mind the treatment of their own population especially women. So I don't see any moral equivalence.

    Israel seems to be murdering thousands of Palestinians for the sheer hell of it. Or maybe it's bloodlust?
    It's because the Hamas military hides among the general population. You have two choices. Don't go after the enemy, and let them attack your citizens again. Go after the enemy, and kill enemy civilians. Which would you do?
    Don’t forget Adm McRaven’s observation.

    If Hamas had had the capability to wipe out all of Israel’s civilian population on Oct 7 they would have done it

    If Israel had the desire to wipe out the civilian population of Gaza they would have done so by now
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,214

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.
    Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?
    Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

    Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.
    But they are killing civilians, thousands of them, and the 2 million survivors have barely any drinking water, power, food and comms.
    But your source for 'thousands of them' is utterly unreliable. Why do you believe and trust Hamas?
    Well, the State Department believe the figures for one, and that's before we get to the NGOs working on the actual ground.
    The NGOs working on the ground have no visibility of total figures, do they? And I fear most of them would be reluctant to cast doubt on the figures for a number of reasons, including wanting to continue working in Gaza.

    Do the State Department 'believe' the figures? Have they said they are accurate?
    I believe only yesterday VP Harris stated that "too many Palestinians have died". Make of that what you will.
    That's not answering the question, is it?
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,070

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.
    Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?
    Without Iran there would have been no 7 October massacre and no Israeli retaliation. The source of the problem lies in Tehran.
    It looks as if Iran was completely blindsided by the October 7th attacks. The only country with advanced knowledge was Israel, which disbelieved Hamas' plans.
    Do you believe Hamas could have built all those tunnels and fired all those rockets without Iranian support? Is there a factory in Gaza producing all this stuff?
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,162

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.
    Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?
    Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

    Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.
    But they are killing civilians, thousands of them, and the 2 million survivors have barely any drinking water, power, food and comms.
    But your source for 'thousands of them' is utterly unreliable. Why do you believe and trust Hamas?
    Well, the State Department believe the figures for one, and that's before we get to the NGOs working on the actual ground.
    The NGOs working on the ground have no visibility of total figures, do they? And I fear most of them would be reluctant to cast doubt on the figures for a number of reasons, including wanting to continue working in Gaza.

    Do the State Department 'believe' the figures? Have they said they are accurate?
    They cite them. That’s not the same thing as believing them
  • Options
    OT UK Snooker final on BBC2. Ronnie O'Sullivan needs one frame to become the oldest winner, 30 years since he was the youngest. Ding Junhui is not out of it, though, at 9-7 behind.
  • Options
    9/10. Should be a candle on the back.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,070
    A thorough investigation of all these NGOs who have been in Gaza for years would also be most welcome once all of this is over.
  • Options

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.
    Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?
    Without Iran there would have been no 7 October massacre and no Israeli retaliation. The source of the problem lies in Tehran.
    It looks as if Iran was completely blindsided by the October 7th attacks. The only country with advanced knowledge was Israel, which disbelieved Hamas' plans.
    Do you believe Hamas could have built all those tunnels and fired all those rockets without Iranian support? Is there a factory in Gaza producing all this stuff?
    You are shifting the goalposts. Of course, Hamas is supported and funded by Iran. Separately from that, Iran was not consulted or forewarned of the 7th October attacks.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,473

    OT UK Snooker final on BBC2. Ronnie O'Sullivan needs one frame to become the oldest winner, 30 years since he was the youngest. Ding Junhui is not out of it, though, at 9-7 behind.

    Remarkable really.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,682
    edited December 2023

    OT UK Snooker final on BBC2. Ronnie O'Sullivan needs one frame to become the oldest winner, 30 years since he was the youngest. Ding Junhui is not out of it, though, at 9-7 behind.

    Ronnie might even win with a maximum (147) break.

    ETA jinxed it. He's gone for the pink.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,070

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.
    Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?
    Without Iran there would have been no 7 October massacre and no Israeli retaliation. The source of the problem lies in Tehran.
    It looks as if Iran was completely blindsided by the October 7th attacks. The only country with advanced knowledge was Israel, which disbelieved Hamas' plans.
    Do you believe Hamas could have built all those tunnels and fired all those rockets without Iranian support? Is there a factory in Gaza producing all this stuff?
    You are shifting the goalposts. Of course, Hamas is supported and funded by Iran. Separately from that, Iran was not consulted or forewarned of the 7th October attacks.
    Perhaps not. Although I'm not sure what your proof is. The fact is that Israel behaves as it does because it believes it faces an existential threat to its security. So long as Tehran funds terror that threat remains. If they stopped the problem would eventually be dealt with.
  • Options

    DavidL said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.
    Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?
    Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

    Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.
    But they are killing civilians, thousands of them, and the 2 million survivors have barely any drinking water, power, food and comms.
    Indeed. And how else do you plan to militarily defeat Hamas? Hamas haven't ventured forth to meet the Israelis on the field of battle, and neither would I expect them to.
    Why must it be a military solution? Will a military solution even work?
    Because its a war Sunil. A war started by Hamas on 7th October. Surely you can see that?
    I thought it started in 1948 (but I jest).
    1881 is the accepted date of the start of the First Aaliyah, although there had been significant Jewish settlement before then. Largely down to Ottoman weakness, and the fact they generally didn't give a flying f*** about what happened in the provinces, as long as it didn't include insurrection.
  • Options
    geoffw said:

    O'Sullivan does it!

    OT that reminds me, the restaurant down the road Ronnie used to eat in closed a few weeks ago.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,267

    I'm a middle of the road Bond fan - I'm not too keen on the 'gritty and real' Bonds, or the jumping the shark with the spoofy camp ones. Goldeneye is my favourite of the series for that reason I think.

    Wrong, on sooooo many levels.

    Liking Goldeneye doesn't make you a "middle of the road Bond fan", simply a Phlisitine, of no discernible taste.

    I'll bet you like Radiohead too...
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,214
    Nigel Farage denies having a pierced nipple on I'm a Celeb tonight
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,514
    HYUFD said:

    Nigel Farage denies having a pierced nipple on I'm a Celeb tonight

    So is that his leadership of the Tories over before it even starts?
  • Options
    New wave of Tory MPs poised to quit politics in new year
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/12/03/conservative-mps-stand-down-new-year-lose-election-polls/ (£££)

    No names, no pack drill, but the Telegraph has been told to expect more announcements after the Christmas break.
  • Options

    DavidL said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.
    Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?
    Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

    Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.
    But they are killing civilians, thousands of them, and the 2 million survivors have barely any drinking water, power, food and comms.
    Indeed. And how else do you plan to militarily defeat Hamas? Hamas haven't ventured forth to meet the Israelis on the field of battle, and neither would I expect them to.
    Why must it be a military solution? Will a military solution even work?
    Because its a war Sunil. A war started by Hamas on 7th October. Surely you can see that?
    I thought it started in 1948 (but I jest).
    1881 is the accepted date of the start of the First Aaliyah, although there had been significant Jewish settlement before then. Largely down to Ottoman weakness, and the fact they generally didn't give a flying f*** about what happened in the provinces, as long as it didn't include insurrection.
    Age ain't nothing but a number
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,514

    New wave of Tory MPs poised to quit politics in new year
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/12/03/conservative-mps-stand-down-new-year-lose-election-polls/ (£££)

    No names, no pack drill, but the Telegraph has been told to expect more announcements after the Christmas break.

    Being an opposition MP must be one of the most boring and pointless things in the world. And the Tories are facing at least 10 years of it.
  • Options
    Infected blood: Tory rebellion expected on payouts amendment
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-67607031

    Will Rishi miss another chance to get on the right side of history?
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,397

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Happy first day of Advent all.

    My favourite Christmas film is On Her Majesty's Secret Service

    It’s a good Bond movie but the apex is Moonraker.
    Quotes for miles
    "See that some harm comes to him."
    "The tedious inevitability of an unloved season"
    "You missed, Mr Bond! Did I?"
    "Even in death, my munificence is boundless."
    "you defy all my attempts to plan an amusing death for you."
    "At least I shall have the pleasure of putting you out of my misery"

    and, inevitably - "I think he's attempting re-entry sir."

    Brilliant soundtrack
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0IKahbz75xo

    Effects
    The peak of British old-school in-camera miniatures Derek Meddings special effects. Same year as Alien (and ST:TMP, but that was American)

    Space Laser Battle: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVzvlu2IsvU
    Moonraker 6 launch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_VVs9t3gVyg

    Research
    I did the research when writing an alt-hist for alternatehistory.com. It contains this passage

    "We used to be great. We built cars, ships, planes, spacecraft, starships and made them fly and spin. We lit them, painted them and filmed them, on rolling roads and shining wires. We built objects of great beauty and persuaded the world they were real. We created images that looked like nothing before or since, and they were utterly, utterly wonderful. We gave the world beauty...and now we don't. I want us to be what we used to be. I want, I want it all back the way that it was. Does that answer your question?"
    The laser fight was pish. Matching lasers (not different colours for the opposing sides). I just can't get into Moonraker. It's not as bad as Diamonds Are Forever but it ain't far off.
    Always loved it as a Bond movie. Great soundtrack,,great cast, cracking theme, wonderful open titles sequence and just as camp as a row of tents.

    Spy Who Loved Me rocked but this just is one step better.
    I'm a middle of the road Bond fan - I'm not too keen on the 'gritty and real' Bonds, or the jumping the shark with the spoofy camp ones. Goldeneye is my favourite of the series for that reason I think.
    Is that the one with Sean Bean ? I’ve not really seen many of the later ones. I don’t consider myself a Bond fan but I do like the camp style of the Roger Moore stuff. I like it when it doesn’t take itself too seriously.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,397

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.
    Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?
    Without Iran there would have been no 7 October massacre and no Israeli retaliation. The source of the problem lies in Tehran.
    It looks as if Iran was completely blindsided by the October 7th attacks. The only country with advanced knowledge was Israel, which disbelieved Hamas' plans.
    Do you believe Hamas could have built all those tunnels and fired all those rockets without Iranian support? Is there a factory in Gaza producing all this stuff?
    You are shifting the goalposts. Of course, Hamas is supported and funded by Iran. Separately from that, Iran was not consulted or forewarned of the 7th October attacks.
    Perhaps not. Although I'm not sure what your proof is. The fact is that Israel behaves as it does because it believes it faces an existential threat to its security. So long as Tehran funds terror that threat remains. If they stopped the problem would eventually be dealt with.
    https://www.timesofisrael.com/for-years-netanyahu-propped-up-hamas-now-its-blown-up-in-our-faces/
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,514

    Infected blood: Tory rebellion expected on payouts amendment
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-67607031

    Will Rishi miss another chance to get on the right side of history?

    He has a brilliant track record to maintain.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,162
    edited December 2023
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigel Farage denies having a pierced nipple on I'm a Celeb tonight

    So is that his leadership of the Tories over before it even starts?
    Why do you think that a pierced nipple would be a negative? After all they chose a Johnson to lead them
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,981

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.
    Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?
    Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

    Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.
    But they are killing civilians, thousands of them, and the 2 million survivors have barely any drinking water, power, food and comms.
    But your source for 'thousands of them' is utterly unreliable. Why do you believe and trust Hamas?
    Even the Israelis aren't denying this.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,514

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigel Farage denies having a pierced nipple on I'm a Celeb tonight

    So is that his leadership of the Tories over before it even starts?
    Why do you think that a pierced nipple would be a negative? After all they chose a Johnson to lead them
    I was suggesting the opposite.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,927

    Tres said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Can anyone explain why there's a question mark over whether or not Die Hard is a Christmas movie?

    It was released in the middle of summer.
    Still set during Christmas!

    Titanic was released in 1997, but it was set in 1912.
    It’s NOT a 1912 movie though is it?
  • Options

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    "Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians."

    According to the Hamas-run Health Ministry.
    I keep telling you guys in the "My Israel Right Or Wrong" brigade, if you have a better source, I'm all ears.
    More about questioning why you seem to accept Hamas figures with impunity.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,214
    DavidL said:

    New wave of Tory MPs poised to quit politics in new year
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/12/03/conservative-mps-stand-down-new-year-lose-election-polls/ (£££)

    No names, no pack drill, but the Telegraph has been told to expect more announcements after the Christmas break.

    Being an opposition MP must be one of the most boring and pointless things in the world. And the Tories are facing at least 10 years of it.
    Well Labour MPs have already done 13 years of it.

    However it is an important job, holding the government to account and dealing with constituency casework. How the economy performs under a Labour government will also effect how long Tory MPs have to do it
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,533

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.
    Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?
    Without Iran there would have been no 7 October massacre and no Israeli retaliation. The source of the problem lies in Tehran.
    It looks as if Iran was completely blindsided by the October 7th attacks. The only country with advanced knowledge was Israel, which disbelieved Hamas' plans.
    Do you believe Hamas could have built all those tunnels and fired all those rockets without Iranian support? Is there a factory in Gaza producing all this stuff?
    You are shifting the goalposts. Of course, Hamas is supported and funded by Iran. Separately from that, Iran was not consulted or forewarned of the 7th October attacks.
    Thank god we have someone posting on here who is privy to the innermost machinations of the region.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,579
    edited December 2023
    DavidL said:

    New wave of Tory MPs poised to quit politics in new year
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/12/03/conservative-mps-stand-down-new-year-lose-election-polls/ (£££)

    No names, no pack drill, but the Telegraph has been told to expect more announcements after the Christmas break.

    Being an opposition MP must be one of the most boring and pointless things in the world. And the Tories are facing at least 10 years of it.
    It's not completely pointless. I'm sure that the governance of Britain will be notably poorer if the Opposition has simply given up, even before it's become the Opposition. Something similar is happening with Fine Gael politicians.

    It says something very bad about politics in Britain and other countries if our politicians are not at all motivated by serving the country by taking part as an opposition. There's so much poor legislation that could do with proper opposition scrutiny.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,927
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    New wave of Tory MPs poised to quit politics in new year
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/12/03/conservative-mps-stand-down-new-year-lose-election-polls/ (£££)

    No names, no pack drill, but the Telegraph has been told to expect more announcements after the Christmas break.

    Being an opposition MP must be one of the most boring and pointless things in the world. And the Tories are facing at least 10 years of it.
    Well Labour MPs have already done 13 years of it.

    However it is an important job, holding the government to account and dealing with constituency casework. How the economy performs under a Labour government will also effect how long Tory MPs have to do it
    affect
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,514
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    New wave of Tory MPs poised to quit politics in new year
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/12/03/conservative-mps-stand-down-new-year-lose-election-polls/ (£££)

    No names, no pack drill, but the Telegraph has been told to expect more announcements after the Christmas break.

    Being an opposition MP must be one of the most boring and pointless things in the world. And the Tories are facing at least 10 years of it.
    Well Labour MPs have already done 13 years of it.

    However it is an important job, holding the government to account and dealing with constituency casework. How the economy performs under a Labour government will also effect how long Tory MPs have to do it
    I can fully understand and sympathise as to why some of the more able Tories will think that they have better things to do for the next decade. You can't really hold a government with a decent majority to account, they simply vote you down time after time. If the limits of your aspirations are being an overpaid under qualified social worker then fair enough but I suspect most of the more ambitious actually want to run something.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,044

    DavidL said:

    New wave of Tory MPs poised to quit politics in new year
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/12/03/conservative-mps-stand-down-new-year-lose-election-polls/ (£££)

    No names, no pack drill, but the Telegraph has been told to expect more announcements after the Christmas break.

    Being an opposition MP must be one of the most boring and pointless things in the world. And the Tories are facing at least 10 years of it.
    It's not completely pointless. I'm sure that the governance of Britain will be notably poorer if the Opposition has simply given up, even before it's become the Opposition. Something similar is happening with Fine Gael politicians.

    It says something very bad about politics in Britain and other countries if our politicians are not at all motivated by serving the country by taking part as an opposition. There's so much poor legislation that could do with proper opposition scrutiny.
    Yes, but.
    Properly scrutinised legislation. In which perfectly practical and logical non-political, easily solvable issues raised are simply waved away and vilified.
    See Rwanda amongst others.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,044
    edited December 2023
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    New wave of Tory MPs poised to quit politics in new year
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/12/03/conservative-mps-stand-down-new-year-lose-election-polls/ (£££)

    No names, no pack drill, but the Telegraph has been told to expect more announcements after the Christmas break.

    Being an opposition MP must be one of the most boring and pointless things in the world. And the Tories are facing at least 10 years of it.
    Well Labour MPs have already done 13 years of it.

    However it is an important job, holding the government to account and dealing with constituency casework. How the economy performs under a Labour government will also effect how long Tory MPs have to do it
    I can fully understand and sympathise as to why some of the more able Tories will think that they have better things to do for the next decade. You can't really hold a government with a decent majority to account, they simply vote you down time after time. If the limits of your aspirations are being an overpaid under qualified social worker then fair enough but I suspect most of the more ambitious actually want to run something.
    A stall at the Primary School Christmas Fair would be beyond them without serious injury, expropriation of funds or a sex scandal. Or outsourced to a bloke they knew from the pub.
    And that's the "more able".
    So. Want away.
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    New wave of Tory MPs poised to quit politics in new year
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/12/03/conservative-mps-stand-down-new-year-lose-election-polls/ (£££)

    No names, no pack drill, but the Telegraph has been told to expect more announcements after the Christmas break.

    Being an opposition MP must be one of the most boring and pointless things in the world. And the Tories are facing at least 10 years of it.
    Well Labour MPs have already done 13 years of it.

    However it is an important job, holding the government to account and dealing with constituency casework. How the economy performs under a Labour government will also effect how long Tory MPs have to do it
    I can fully understand and sympathise as to why some of the more able Tories will think that they have better things to do for the next decade. You can't really hold a government with a decent majority to account, they simply vote you down time after time. If the limits of your aspirations are being an overpaid under qualified social worker then fair enough but I suspect most of the more ambitious actually want to run something.
    Tory backbenchers who were hanging their hopes on the last reshuffle will now know it is impossible for them to climb the greasy pole.
  • Options
    Aaron Bell MP still has not updated his Wikipedia page since being made a government whip.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers#whips
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aaron_Bell_(politician)

    Mind you, he's not updated his photo since around 1997 by the look of it.
  • Options
    Red Sea latest from US Central Command:

    https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1731424734829773090

    No serious damage.

    Yet.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,214
    edited December 2023
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    New wave of Tory MPs poised to quit politics in new year
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/12/03/conservative-mps-stand-down-new-year-lose-election-polls/ (£££)

    No names, no pack drill, but the Telegraph has been told to expect more announcements after the Christmas break.

    Being an opposition MP must be one of the most boring and pointless things in the world. And the Tories are facing at least 10 years of it.
    Well Labour MPs have already done 13 years of it.

    However it is an important job, holding the government to account and dealing with constituency casework. How the economy performs under a Labour government will also effect how long Tory MPs have to do it
    I can fully understand and sympathise as to why some of the more able Tories will think that they have better things to do for the next decade. You can't really hold a government with a decent majority to account, they simply vote you down time after time. If the limits of your aspirations are being an overpaid under qualified social worker then fair enough but I suspect most of the more ambitious actually want to run something.
    Yes some of the most ambitious and arrogant Tory MPs, most of whom will have been Ministers at some point too, will prefer to join a City firm board or well paid lobbyist job or media role or return to the Bar or their old law firm than the hard slog of Opposition. However others will be more motivated by public service and see an MP's role as important both for representing their constituency and scrutinising policy and legislation in parliament without being mocked as an 'overpaid under qualified social worker' which disrespects both them and social workers
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,883

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    I know the source for the second line will be Hamas, but what is your source for the first?
    Israel itself (via Wikipedia).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel
    Look ffs....israel in 2005 was helping gaze, they were all for it becoming a port of importance and helping gaze rebuild....the response to this from gaze was lets elect hamas.....at that point israel should have taken it as an act of war and wiped gaze off the map.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,215

    Aaron Bell MP still has not updated his Wikipedia page since being made a government whip.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers#whips
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aaron_Bell_(politician)

    Mind you, he's not updated his photo since around 1997 by the look of it.

    I wish this guy would give up the day job and return to PB. Was a far better tipster than MP. Didn’t he vote for THE TRUSS?
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,981
    Pagan2 said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    I know the source for the second line will be Hamas, but what is your source for the first?
    Israel itself (via Wikipedia).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel
    Look ffs....israel in 2005 was helping gaze, they were all for it becoming a port of importance and helping gaze rebuild....the response to this from gaze was lets elect hamas.....at that point israel should have taken it as an act of war and wiped gaze off the map.
    Helping Gaza? They were not allowing the formation of an independent Palestinian state.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,100
    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    @trussliz
    ·
    9h
    This week I will present a Private Members' Bill to Parliament. The Bill would protect single-sex spaces in law. It would also protect children and teenagers from making irreversible decisions about their bodies
    https://x.com/trussliz/status/1731259826972274898?s=20

    She's going to ban ear piercings for under 18s?
    How about irreversible decisions made by their parents?
    Government (or parents) insisting that trans kids go through puberty before they get to decide what they can do with their own bodies is also making an irreversible decision for them, of course.

    Whether you think that's the right or wrong decision, it's utterly dishonest to pretend it's not also a consequential one for the individuals concerned.

  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,883

    Pagan2 said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    I know the source for the second line will be Hamas, but what is your source for the first?
    Israel itself (via Wikipedia).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel
    Look ffs....israel in 2005 was helping gaze, they were all for it becoming a port of importance and helping gaze rebuild....the response to this from gaze was lets elect hamas.....at that point israel should have taken it as an act of war and wiped gaze off the map.
    Helping Gaza? They were not allowing the formation of an independent Palestinian state.
    They withdrew settlements from Gaza, they were helping them to turn the port into a viable concern...was it all what gazans want...hell no but it was a first step. Gazans response was to elect a governement that wanted to wipe out israel. If they had elected a more moderate governement that was willing to work with israel rather than one devoted to its destruction then just maybe we would be in a better position now.

    This is what pisses me off about arses like you, you portray the gazans as victims sorry no they fucked themselves up the ass. I dont like israel either for info but the gazans made their own bed so tough luck. Personally I still think we in the west would just be better off nuking the whole of the middle east and france then forgetting the fuckers existed
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.
    Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?
    Without Iran there would have been no 7 October massacre and no Israeli retaliation. The source of the problem lies in Tehran.
    It looks as if Iran was completely blindsided by the October 7th attacks. The only country with advanced knowledge was Israel, which disbelieved Hamas' plans.
    Do you believe Hamas could have built all those tunnels and fired all those rockets without Iranian support? Is there a factory in Gaza producing all this stuff?
    You are shifting the goalposts. Of course, Hamas is supported and funded by Iran. Separately from that, Iran was not consulted or forewarned of the 7th October attacks.
    Thank god we have someone posting on here who is privy to the innermost machinations of the region.
    The Israeli army and the United States say that there is no evidence that Iran is connected with the attack by Hamas.[695] American intelligence appeared to show that Hamas's attack on Israel caught Iranian authorities by surprise.[696]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel–Hamas_war#Regional_effects
  • Options

    Aaron Bell MP still has not updated his Wikipedia page since being made a government whip.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers#whips
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aaron_Bell_(politician)

    Mind you, he's not updated his photo since around 1997 by the look of it.

    I wish this guy would give up the day job and return to PB. Was a far better tipster than MP. Didn’t he vote for THE TRUSS?
    7K majority.

    Should be back with us by end of May of perhaps end of November.
  • Options

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    "Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians."

    According to the Hamas-run Health Ministry.
    I keep telling you guys in the "My Israel Right Or Wrong" brigade, if you have a better source, I'm all ears.
    More about questioning why you seem to accept Hamas figures with impunity.
    If you have better data, let's see it!
  • Options

    Tres said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Can anyone explain why there's a question mark over whether or not Die Hard is a Christmas movie?

    It was released in the middle of summer.
    Still set during Christmas!

    Titanic was released in 1997, but it was set in 1912.
    It’s NOT a 1912 movie though is it?
    Titanic sank in 1912!
  • Options
    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,982
    DavidL said:

    New wave of Tory MPs poised to quit politics in new year
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/12/03/conservative-mps-stand-down-new-year-lose-election-polls/ (£££)

    No names, no pack drill, but the Telegraph has been told to expect more announcements after the Christmas break.

    Being an opposition MP must be one of the most boring and pointless things in the world. And the Tories are facing at least 10 years of it.
    They'll keep themselves amused by bitter in-fighting, factionalism and Farage-curious fights. What could be more exciting? Running the country is much less fun. People expect you to do things, you know? Most unreasonable of them.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    Nigel Farage denies having a pierced nipple on I'm a Celeb tonight

    HYUFD watches I'm a Celeb??? Respec'!
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,883



    DavidL said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.
    Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?
    Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

    Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.
    But they are killing civilians, thousands of them, and the 2 million survivors have barely any drinking water, power, food and comms.
    Indeed. And how else do you plan to militarily defeat Hamas? Hamas haven't ventured forth to meet the Israelis on the field of battle, and neither would I expect them to.
    Why must it be a military solution? Will a military solution even work?
    Because its a war Sunil. A war started by Hamas on 7th October. Surely you can see that?
    I thought it started in 1948 (but I jest).
    Sunil, notwithstanding Hamas committed a gross atrocity on October 7th, Bibi's cheerleaders on here are either stupid or have a complete disregard for the lives of Palestinian women and children.

    Max Hastings when writing a biography of Bibi's brother in the 1990s comments on Bibi's apparent and worrying casual hatred of "Arabs".

    I am not sure why it is so difficult to condemn both the death cult that is Hamas for their disgusting bloodlust and Netanyahu in the same breath. It seems far easier to give Bibi a free pass. In my book both Bibi and Hamas personify of evil, yet it would seem for some on here Bibi is justifiable evil.
    The middle east has been a crucible for warring death cults since the year dot. It always has been and always will be
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,995
    HYUFD said:

    Nigel Farage denies having a pierced nipple on I'm a Celeb tonight

    Doubtful, as millions of people have voted for him, and most have felt a bit of a tit.
  • Options
    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,982

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    "Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians."

    According to the Hamas-run Health Ministry.
    I keep telling you guys in the "My Israel Right Or Wrong" brigade, if you have a better source, I'm all ears.
    More about questioning why you seem to accept Hamas figures with impunity.
    If you have better data, let's see it!
    (the baddies) 8 - (the good people) Nill
  • Options

    DavidL said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.
    Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?
    Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

    Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.
    But they are killing civilians, thousands of them, and the 2 million survivors have barely any drinking water, power, food and comms.
    Indeed. And how else do you plan to militarily defeat Hamas? Hamas haven't ventured forth to meet the Israelis on the field of battle, and neither would I expect them to.
    Why must it be a military solution? Will a military solution even work?
    Because its a war Sunil. A war started by Hamas on 7th October. Surely you can see that?
    I thought it started in 1948 (but I jest).
    1881 is the accepted date of the start of the First Aaliyah, although there had been significant Jewish settlement before then. Largely down to Ottoman weakness, and the fact they generally didn't give a flying f*** about what happened in the provinces, as long as it didn't include insurrection.
    Age ain't nothing but a number
    "Age" is a word, not a number!
  • Options
    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,982
    kyf_100 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigel Farage denies having a pierced nipple on I'm a Celeb tonight

    Doubtful, as millions of people have voted for him, and most have felt a bit of a tit.
    I seem to remember an obviously false rumour (no need to thank me mods!) that after the BBC's Evan Davies had his nip piercing he was referred to by the Newsnight crew as 'Tinsel-tits'.
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    DavidL said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.
    Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?
    Sunil, you obviously think "proportionality" means tit-for-tat, presumably Israel should have launched a raid on Gaza and killed 1200 people at random, and left it at that.

    Actually, if you are attacked, you are entitled to destroy the enemy's army, so they can no longer attack you.
    But they are killing civilians, thousands of them, and the 2 million survivors have barely any drinking water, power, food and comms.
    Indeed. And how else do you plan to militarily defeat Hamas? Hamas haven't ventured forth to meet the Israelis on the field of battle, and neither would I expect them to.
    Why must it be a military solution? Will a military solution even work?
    Because its a war Sunil. A war started by Hamas on 7th October. Surely you can see that?
    I thought it started in 1948 (but I jest).
    1881 is the accepted date of the start of the First Aaliyah, although there had been significant Jewish settlement before then. Largely down to Ottoman weakness, and the fact they generally didn't give a flying f*** about what happened in the provinces, as long as it didn't include insurrection.
    Age ain't nothing but a number
    "Age" is a word, not a number!
    I am not a number.

    I is a letter.
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    TOPPING said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Vanilla is being a right bugger this evening.

    Anyway, war with Iran it is. They’ve had it coming.

    In which case it would be a good idea to try to avoid civilian casualties as much as possible because the people of Iran are not generally supportive of the regime and they're our best hope of a successful outcome.
    I presume any action would be focused specifically on military targets like the IRGC.
    Only if you're prepared for a 1970's style oil price shock
    Why would we be looking at a 70s style oil shock? Genuine question.
    1. Where are Iran and their proxies?
    2. Now look at Iranian drone/ballistic missile technology
    3. Now see what one attack did to Saudi production
    4. Now imagine the Iranians are pissed off and actually go for oil/LNG production
    5. Now look at Iranian anti-ship missiles (1000km+ range)
    6. Now imagine you need to pilot an oil/LNG tanker past Iran and Iranian proxies

    Clearly I'm not expert but if the Iranians only closed their strait this would immediately remove ~20%* of current oil and LNG production.

    *https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/strait-hormuz-worlds-most-important-oil-artery-2023-10-20/
    If they go after other countries' oil and gas production facilities couldn't they expect the same treatment in return? They have as much to lose as anyone else and their regime has been creaking. For all the sanctions imposed on them they do seem to act with impunity.
    Sure, but aren't we attacking Iran today? I'd imagine if the UK was involved the Iranian's would consider the war existential.
    PB’s armchair general brigade is ready to swing into action.
    I'd plead guilty to being an armchair general though I'm rather more circumspect than the cliche suggests. The question is can Iran continue to act with impunity. It does seem as if the consequence of trying to avoid escalation at all costs is escalation itself - from the other side.
    Israel's also acting with impunity.
    But they’re allies so that’s okay 👍

    Hardly impunity when their country is being shelled daily, over a thousand civilians were killed by Hamas on 7th October after invading the country, and Houthis are sinking their ships. Iran on the other hand really is getting zero comeback for anything it does through its proxies.
    859 civilians in fact, rest were IDF.

    Since 7/10, Israel has killed well over 15,000 Palestinians.
    And how many from the Iranian regime? None. So they are acting with impunity.
    Have they killed 15,000 people inside two months?
    Without Iran there would have been no 7 October massacre and no Israeli retaliation. The source of the problem lies in Tehran.
    It looks as if Iran was completely blindsided by the October 7th attacks. The only country with advanced knowledge was Israel, which disbelieved Hamas' plans.
    Do you believe Hamas could have built all those tunnels and fired all those rockets without Iranian support? Is there a factory in Gaza producing all this stuff?
    You are shifting the goalposts. Of course, Hamas is supported and funded by Iran. Separately from that, Iran was not consulted or forewarned of the 7th October attacks.
    Thank god we have someone posting on here who is privy to the innermost machinations of the region.
    The Israeli army and the United States say that there is no evidence that Iran is connected with the attack by Hamas.[695] American intelligence appeared to show that Hamas's attack on Israel caught Iranian authorities by surprise.[696]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel–Hamas_war#Regional_effects
    May well be true.

    But strikes me as a bit odd.

    Really?

    No one in senior Hamas leadership thought they should just let their old pals in Iran know something was about to go down in the hood?

    Either they did or it seems to me they choose not to because they would be talked out of it?

  • Options
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    New wave of Tory MPs poised to quit politics in new year
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/12/03/conservative-mps-stand-down-new-year-lose-election-polls/ (£££)

    No names, no pack drill, but the Telegraph has been told to expect more announcements after the Christmas break.

    Being an opposition MP must be one of the most boring and pointless things in the world. And the Tories are facing at least 10 years of it.
    Well Labour MPs have already done 13 years of it.

    However it is an important job, holding the government to account and dealing with constituency casework. How the economy performs under a Labour government will also effect how long Tory MPs have to do it
    I can fully understand and sympathise as to why some of the more able Tories will think that they have better things to do for the next decade. You can't really hold a government with a decent majority to account, they simply vote you down time after time. If the limits of your aspirations are being an overpaid under qualified social worker then fair enough but I suspect most of the more ambitious actually want to run something.
    That does a little bit of disservice to what can be genuinely bipartisan moments in the HOC. You can still influence legislation and be on committees. Yes in opposition you are not going to always get your way, but you are not entirely powerless.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,214
    edited December 2023
    ohnotnow said:

    DavidL said:

    New wave of Tory MPs poised to quit politics in new year
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/12/03/conservative-mps-stand-down-new-year-lose-election-polls/ (£££)

    No names, no pack drill, but the Telegraph has been told to expect more announcements after the Christmas break.

    Being an opposition MP must be one of the most boring and pointless things in the world. And the Tories are facing at least 10 years of it.
    They'll keep themselves amused by bitter in-fighting, factionalism and Farage-curious fights. What could be more exciting? Running the country is much less fun. People expect you to do things, you know? Most unreasonable of them.
    Plus, if you can't get a £100k plus a year job if you leave Parliament, you get subsidised accomodation in London, meals and bar in a Palace, access to an excellent library, staff costs, 'fact finding' trips overseas etc.

    If you hang around long enough you might get a knighthood or damehood or even get a peerage and go up to the House of Lords with even grander restaurants and bars and no need to ask the voters what they think of your record to stay there
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    If @Leon is on tonight and running out of travel ideas...

    Massimo
    @Rainmaker1973
    The town of Whittier, Alaska, is known for having nearly the entire population living in a single apartment building.

    https://twitter.com/Rainmaker1973/status/1731327512389595624


    If the Flint Witness does send you, I'd like a hat tip though. :smile:
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    New wave of Tory MPs poised to quit politics in new year
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/12/03/conservative-mps-stand-down-new-year-lose-election-polls/ (£££)

    No names, no pack drill, but the Telegraph has been told to expect more announcements after the Christmas break.

    Being an opposition MP must be one of the most boring and pointless things in the world. And the Tories are facing at least 10 years of it.
    Well Labour MPs have already done 13 years of it.

    However it is an important job, holding the government to account and dealing with constituency casework. How the economy performs under a Labour government will also effect how long Tory MPs have to do it
    I can fully understand and sympathise as to why some of the more able Tories will think that they have better things to do for the next decade. You can't really hold a government with a decent majority to account, they simply vote you down time after time. If the limits of your aspirations are being an overpaid under qualified social worker then fair enough but I suspect most of the more ambitious actually want to run something.
    Yes some of the most ambitious and arrogant Tory MPs, most of whom will have been Ministers at some point too, will prefer to join a City firm board or well paid lobbyist job or media role or return to the Bar or their old law firm than the hard slog of Opposition. However others will be more motivated by public service and see an MP's role as important both for representing their constituency and scrutinising policy and legislation in parliament without being mocked as an 'overpaid under qualified social worker' which disrespects both them and social workers
    The precedent of 1997 isn't a cheerful one for soon to be ex Conservative MPs. A large chunk of their current value is their contacts book, and that is very probably about to be very obsolete.

    Some will slip elegantly back into their old roles, some will reinvent themselves. But the supply of ex Conservative MPs (would it be a shock if it was around 200?) is going to massively exceed the demand.

    And whilst the next Conservative Prime Minister might be about to enter Paraliament without anyone really noticing (though recent history suggests that might not happen until 2028 and we should be looking for people putting up a decent showing somewhere hopeless this time round), pretty much anyone currently in Cabinet can expect to be out by next time the pendulum swings.

    It's a good test of character, leading an organisation when you know that failure is odds-on. I wonder what was going through Starmer's head in 2020?
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    I doubt if we will ever get a completely reliable figure on the number of deaths in Gaza. However, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the figures issued by the Hamas Health Ministry are an underestimate rather than an overestimate. A lot of bodies will be buried in the rubble, and I don't know whether there is the capacity to account for everybody.

    The US State Department Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs told a Congressional hearing on 9 November that the death toll was "very high, frankly, and it could be that they're even higher than are being cited."[66]


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_2023_Israel–Hamas_war#Death_toll
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,668
    Scott_xP said:

    I'm a middle of the road Bond fan - I'm not too keen on the 'gritty and real' Bonds, or the jumping the shark with the spoofy camp ones. Goldeneye is my favourite of the series for that reason I think.

    Wrong, on sooooo many levels.

    Liking Goldeneye doesn't make you a "middle of the road Bond fan", simply a Phlisitine, of no discernible taste.

    I'll bet you like Radiohead too...
    Oy!

    You can't say that without giving us your favourite so you can get pelters about it.
  • Options

    On the sad death of Glenys Kinnock. I didn't like her politics at all. But saddened to hear of the death of anyone who was acting for their beliefs in a decent manner irrespective of whether I shared those beliefs. Particularly saddened for Neil. Losing a partner after 56 years of marriage must be devestating.

    RIP

    They came across as genuine soulmates.

This discussion has been closed.