"A 1.5 degree rise will give us a temperature more akin to central France" Leaving aside the Gulf Stream switching off, an influx of pests with no control species, a loss of quick growing pine forests when we most need them, a change in vegetation without the soil microorganisms to facilitate growth, a reduction in protein as crops grow quicker etc etc. There's a lot more to climate change than temperature.
Russia’s Slaughter of Indigenous People in Alaska Tells Us Something Important About Ukraine https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/10/27/russia-colonization-alaska-ukraine-00123352 … The removal of Baranov’s statue never cracked into the national news cycle. And maybe that’s understandable, given the protests rocking the rest of the country at the time. But it’s also understandable for a related reason: Russia’s colonization of Alaska — and the rampant violence, spiraling massacres and decimation of local Alaska Native populations that came along with it — is hardly well-known among the broader American body politic. Even with new reassessments of European colonization of North America, as well as the recent spike in scholarship regarding the U.S.’s bloodied imperialism across the American West, Russia’s role in smothering and seizing Alaska stands apart as an overlooked chapter of colonialism on the continent.
It’s also an overlooked aspect of Russian history inside Russia. Official accounts of Russian expansion suggest that Russia simply agglomerated neighboring peoples as part of its defensive acquisition of territory, happily gathering new peoples and new lands into Moscow’s embrace. In Russia’s telling, the word “colonialism” applies to only other empires, not to the Russian one. As Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently claimed, Russia has “not stained itself with the bloody crimes of colonialism.”
But as the removal of Baranov’s statue indicates, Russia’s colonial legacy is hardly forgotten in Alaska. And given Russia’s renewed lurch toward imperialism in places like Ukraine, that legacy is arguably more resonant now than it’s been in decades — or perhaps ever.
In Western universities and research institutes, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered a sweeping reassessment of Russia’s relationship with other peoples and nations, including Ukraine. For decades, Western scholars saw the Soviet Union as a fundamentally different country from the Russian Empire that preceded it, and analyzed its system and behaviors primarily through the regime’s communist ideology. As such, when the Soviet Union collapsed, many in the West assumed that once Moscow had shed communism, democracy would naturally follow.
But post-Soviet Russia has turned out differently, and both inside and outside Russia, scholars and analysts are discerning important throughlines in patterns and practices from tsarist times to the present. One of those throughlines is colonialism, which is turning out to be one of the best explanations for Russia’s aggression against Ukraine...
As Churchill noted to the ghost of his father, the Tsar comes from a new family, and is much more despotic than Nicholas II…
Both Russia and China were empires and are still empires. They use force to hold themselves together, and treat their colonial subjects abominably.
We’ve talked about it for some considerable time. But the notion that Russia and its territories have been a continuous empire since the tsars seems to be a novel idea for quite a few.
It's not a novel idea to historians, despite what the article says. Hosking, Pearson, McCauley and Laver all emphasised the continuity of Russian imperial policy, especially Russification, under the Soviets.
This was all the more ironic because much of the top leadership of the Soviet Union including pretty much all its de facto leaders after Lenin* were not, in fact, Russian. They were Georgian, Ukrainian, mixed Russian and Ukrainian and one Siberian.
Russia’s Slaughter of Indigenous People in Alaska Tells Us Something Important About Ukraine https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/10/27/russia-colonization-alaska-ukraine-00123352 … The removal of Baranov’s statue never cracked into the national news cycle. And maybe that’s understandable, given the protests rocking the rest of the country at the time. But it’s also understandable for a related reason: Russia’s colonization of Alaska — and the rampant violence, spiraling massacres and decimation of local Alaska Native populations that came along with it — is hardly well-known among the broader American body politic. Even with new reassessments of European colonization of North America, as well as the recent spike in scholarship regarding the U.S.’s bloodied imperialism across the American West, Russia’s role in smothering and seizing Alaska stands apart as an overlooked chapter of colonialism on the continent.
It’s also an overlooked aspect of Russian history inside Russia. Official accounts of Russian expansion suggest that Russia simply agglomerated neighboring peoples as part of its defensive acquisition of territory, happily gathering new peoples and new lands into Moscow’s embrace. In Russia’s telling, the word “colonialism” applies to only other empires, not to the Russian one. As Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently claimed, Russia has “not stained itself with the bloody crimes of colonialism.”
But as the removal of Baranov’s statue indicates, Russia’s colonial legacy is hardly forgotten in Alaska. And given Russia’s renewed lurch toward imperialism in places like Ukraine, that legacy is arguably more resonant now than it’s been in decades — or perhaps ever.
In Western universities and research institutes, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered a sweeping reassessment of Russia’s relationship with other peoples and nations, including Ukraine. For decades, Western scholars saw the Soviet Union as a fundamentally different country from the Russian Empire that preceded it, and analyzed its system and behaviors primarily through the regime’s communist ideology. As such, when the Soviet Union collapsed, many in the West assumed that once Moscow had shed communism, democracy would naturally follow.
But post-Soviet Russia has turned out differently, and both inside and outside Russia, scholars and analysts are discerning important throughlines in patterns and practices from tsarist times to the present. One of those throughlines is colonialism, which is turning out to be one of the best explanations for Russia’s aggression against Ukraine...
As Churchill noted to the ghost of his father, the Tsar comes from a new family, and is much more despotic than Nicholas II…
Both Russia and China were empires and are still empires. They use force to hold themselves together, and treat their colonial subjects abominably.
We’ve talked about it for some considerable time. But the notion that Russia and its territories have been a continuous empire since the tsars seems to be a novel idea for quite a few.
America is also an empire
Indeed it is - and it is yet fully to come to terms with the destruction of the indigenous inhabitants. But unlike Russia, it has given up on territorial expansion by military means.
Until the last few years nations had gotten a bit embarrassed at the idea of openly just seizing more territory by force. Lots of frozen disputes, border clashes, and angry talk without really escalating things to full scale invasion and conquest. Seems to be making a comeback.
Does that mean we can retake our historic possessions in France?
With our armed forces? No we couldn't.
You haven’t seen the French….
Granted, but I'm not sure we'd make it across the Channel in the first place, with enough people to do more than stock up on duty free.
"A 1.5 degree rise will give us a temperature more akin to central France" Leaving aside the Gulf Stream switching off, an influx of pests with no control species, a loss of quick growing pine forests when we most need them, a change in vegetation without the soil microorganisms to facilitate growth, a reduction in protein as crops grow quicker etc etc. There's a lot more to climate change than temperature.
What are you saying? There’s not way to avoid a 1.5 degree increase at least. Most likely the best case is 2-2.5. That’s just reality. We’ve got a plan in place to avert the terrifying scenarios and now we love with what happens.
Lets hope that Ms Regan leads a sizeable split in the SNP. Wouldn't that be fun!
Hasn't been an exciting political story out of there for months, most disappointing. Wales tried its best with a row about 20mph rules, but it never really took off, Northern Ireland has been stuck in a loop for about 5 years, and England is just watching in morbid fascination as the government slowly circles the drain.
The DUP have recently indicated that they might possibly, with some more concessions, end their boycott of Stormont. Some in the party appear worried about big seat losses at Westminster if they don’t.
Russia’s Slaughter of Indigenous People in Alaska Tells Us Something Important About Ukraine https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/10/27/russia-colonization-alaska-ukraine-00123352 … The removal of Baranov’s statue never cracked into the national news cycle. And maybe that’s understandable, given the protests rocking the rest of the country at the time. But it’s also understandable for a related reason: Russia’s colonization of Alaska — and the rampant violence, spiraling massacres and decimation of local Alaska Native populations that came along with it — is hardly well-known among the broader American body politic. Even with new reassessments of European colonization of North America, as well as the recent spike in scholarship regarding the U.S.’s bloodied imperialism across the American West, Russia’s role in smothering and seizing Alaska stands apart as an overlooked chapter of colonialism on the continent.
It’s also an overlooked aspect of Russian history inside Russia. Official accounts of Russian expansion suggest that Russia simply agglomerated neighboring peoples as part of its defensive acquisition of territory, happily gathering new peoples and new lands into Moscow’s embrace. In Russia’s telling, the word “colonialism” applies to only other empires, not to the Russian one. As Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently claimed, Russia has “not stained itself with the bloody crimes of colonialism.”
But as the removal of Baranov’s statue indicates, Russia’s colonial legacy is hardly forgotten in Alaska. And given Russia’s renewed lurch toward imperialism in places like Ukraine, that legacy is arguably more resonant now than it’s been in decades — or perhaps ever.
In Western universities and research institutes, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered a sweeping reassessment of Russia’s relationship with other peoples and nations, including Ukraine. For decades, Western scholars saw the Soviet Union as a fundamentally different country from the Russian Empire that preceded it, and analyzed its system and behaviors primarily through the regime’s communist ideology. As such, when the Soviet Union collapsed, many in the West assumed that once Moscow had shed communism, democracy would naturally follow.
But post-Soviet Russia has turned out differently, and both inside and outside Russia, scholars and analysts are discerning important throughlines in patterns and practices from tsarist times to the present. One of those throughlines is colonialism, which is turning out to be one of the best explanations for Russia’s aggression against Ukraine...
As Churchill noted to the ghost of his father, the Tsar comes from a new family, and is much more despotic than Nicholas II…
Both Russia and China were empires and are still empires. They use force to hold themselves together, and treat their colonial subjects abominably.
We’ve talked about it for some considerable time. But the notion that Russia and its territories have been a continuous empire since the tsars seems to be a novel idea for quite a few.
America is also an empire
Indeed it is - and it is yet fully to come to terms with the destruction of the indigenous inhabitants. But unlike Russia, it has given up on territorial expansion by military means.
Until the last few years nations had gotten a bit embarrassed at the idea of openly just seizing more territory by force. Lots of frozen disputes, border clashes, and angry talk without really escalating things to full scale invasion and conquest. Seems to be making a comeback.
Does that mean we can retake our historic possessions in France?
With our armed forces? No we couldn't.
You haven’t seen the French….
Granted, but I'm not sure we'd make it across the Channel in the first place, with enough people to do more than stock up on duty free.
True. And the problem is we don’t really want northern France. We already have Kent and Cornwall.
Lets hope that Ms Regan leads a sizeable split in the SNP. Wouldn't that be fun!
Hasn't been an exciting political story out of there for months, most disappointing. Wales tried its best with a row about 20mph rules, but it never really took off, Northern Ireland has been stuck in a loop for about 5 years, and England is just watching in morbid fascination as the government slowly circles the drain.
The DUP have recently indicated that they might possibly, with some more concessions, end their boycott of Stormont. Some in the party appear worried about big seat losses at Westminster if they don’t.
Someone called Ash Regan (nope, me neither) has left the SNP group in Holyrood and joined the true voice for Indy, Alba.
Actual political betting news!
Alba got off to a good start with 2 MPs defecting to them, but this is their first MSP. They were the 6th largest party at the last Scottish Parliamentary election, but still some way off winning a seat. Might they win a seat next time? Do they have any chance at the next general election of holding their defections?
Is it legitimate to flatten a building housing hundreds of civilians to kill a few Hamas fighters ?
Where do you draw the line ?
The answer is no, hence the ground invasion which will result in far, far fewer civilian deaths in Gaza than aerial bombardment but at a huge cost for Israel both in blood and treasure.
If that had been the case then civilian casualties would surely have been much lower .
I don't think we know what the civilian casualties look like, the hospital incident is the most instructive here. Reported Hamas/PHO as an Israeli strike that killed hundreds of civilians, then increased to over 500, later after investigating independent sources now say well under a 100 died (French media report 10-50 according to French intelligence) due to an errant missile fired from Gaza at Israel. At a stroke we've taken at least 450 off the official 4000 death toll reported by Hamas and repeated by the UN/WHO.
That's not to minimise the suffering, yet the true number of civilian deaths will be substantially lower and in a war there will always be collateral damage and civilians have had weeks of notice now to leave certain areas.
I don’t think you have taken at least 450 off the official 4000 death toll. You’re conflating two different data series, albeit from a related source.
Considering the amount of destruction in civilian housing etc, I think it unlikely that the true death toll will be known for months if at at all. There must be lots of bodies in the rubble.
Thousands seem a reasonable guesstimate, even for pro Israel sources.
Closest parallel is probably Fullijah (assault on large urban area by modern military trying to avoid civilian casualties). I think that was about 1000 civilian deaths, and it was maybe 1/10th the population/scale. (Not saying we would therefore assume 10,000 deaths but thousands is likely).
War in cities is horrible and no one should ever trivialise it.
The Gaza Strip is about one hundredth the area of metropolitan Berlin and as I mentioned previously they currently receive the equivalent of a thousand bomber raid every 3-4 days plus artillery barrages. The idea that casualties won’t be in the thousands is for the birds.
Russia’s Slaughter of Indigenous People in Alaska Tells Us Something Important About Ukraine https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/10/27/russia-colonization-alaska-ukraine-00123352 … The removal of Baranov’s statue never cracked into the national news cycle. And maybe that’s understandable, given the protests rocking the rest of the country at the time. But it’s also understandable for a related reason: Russia’s colonization of Alaska — and the rampant violence, spiraling massacres and decimation of local Alaska Native populations that came along with it — is hardly well-known among the broader American body politic. Even with new reassessments of European colonization of North America, as well as the recent spike in scholarship regarding the U.S.’s bloodied imperialism across the American West, Russia’s role in smothering and seizing Alaska stands apart as an overlooked chapter of colonialism on the continent.
It’s also an overlooked aspect of Russian history inside Russia. Official accounts of Russian expansion suggest that Russia simply agglomerated neighboring peoples as part of its defensive acquisition of territory, happily gathering new peoples and new lands into Moscow’s embrace. In Russia’s telling, the word “colonialism” applies to only other empires, not to the Russian one. As Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently claimed, Russia has “not stained itself with the bloody crimes of colonialism.”
But as the removal of Baranov’s statue indicates, Russia’s colonial legacy is hardly forgotten in Alaska. And given Russia’s renewed lurch toward imperialism in places like Ukraine, that legacy is arguably more resonant now than it’s been in decades — or perhaps ever.
In Western universities and research institutes, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered a sweeping reassessment of Russia’s relationship with other peoples and nations, including Ukraine. For decades, Western scholars saw the Soviet Union as a fundamentally different country from the Russian Empire that preceded it, and analyzed its system and behaviors primarily through the regime’s communist ideology. As such, when the Soviet Union collapsed, many in the West assumed that once Moscow had shed communism, democracy would naturally follow.
But post-Soviet Russia has turned out differently, and both inside and outside Russia, scholars and analysts are discerning important throughlines in patterns and practices from tsarist times to the present. One of those throughlines is colonialism, which is turning out to be one of the best explanations for Russia’s aggression against Ukraine...
As Churchill noted to the ghost of his father, the Tsar comes from a new family, and is much more despotic than Nicholas II…
Both Russia and China were empires and are still empires. They use force to hold themselves together, and treat their colonial subjects abominably.
We’ve talked about it for some considerable time. But the notion that Russia and its territories have been a continuous empire since the tsars seems to be a novel idea for quite a few.
America is also an empire
Indeed it is - and it is yet fully to come to terms with the destruction of the indigenous inhabitants. But unlike Russia, it has given up on territorial expansion by military means.
Until the last few years nations had gotten a bit embarrassed at the idea of openly just seizing more territory by force. Lots of frozen disputes, border clashes, and angry talk without really escalating things to full scale invasion and conquest. Seems to be making a comeback.
Does that mean we can retake our historic possessions in France?
Lets hope that Ms Regan leads a sizeable split in the SNP. Wouldn't that be fun!
She had one SNP endorser in the leadership election, Joanna Cherry. I’d enjoy it if she did, but JC is too self important to shackle herself to under (non really) performers like Alba.
Its painfully obvious that the SNP have failed to have any kind of succession plan for Sturgeon, and don't seem to have a clue what they are about now that the push for independence has failed.
I think Alex Salmond is an arrogant toad, but like Farage he offers an alternative to people of that persuasion fed up with the chaos / timidity of the big party.
So why not? Most SNP MPs will lose their seats anyway, and the majority in Holyrood looks perilous. What is there to lose?
Can't say I entirely blame them for not having a succession plan. Athough Sturgeon had been there for some time she's not old and the expectation seemed to be she would be there for some time.
When was the last successful (or even identifiable) succession plan for any major UK party, Blair>Brown, or even Salmond>Sturgeon? Opinions will differ on how successful they were. I think it’s one of these things that’s often mentioned but is much rarer in reality.
The model is probably Howard leading to Cameron. The key factor here is that Howard took the leadership knowing he was only going to steady the ship and prepare the way for the next leader.
Every leader is, in some respects, only a stopgap before the next leader, but most of them behave as though they will be leader indefinitely. A bit more humility would be helpful, but asking for it feels futile.
"A 1.5 degree rise will give us a temperature more akin to central France" Leaving aside the Gulf Stream switching off, an influx of pests with no control species, a loss of quick growing pine forests when we most need them, a change in vegetation without the soil microorganisms to facilitate growth, a reduction in protein as crops grow quicker etc etc. There's a lot more to climate change than temperature.
What are you saying? There’s not way to avoid a 1.5 degree increase at least. Most likely the best case is 2-2.5. That’s just reality. We’ve got a plan in place to avert the terrifying scenarios and now we love with what happens.
That's playing the blind optimism card rather strongly.
Lets hope that Ms Regan leads a sizeable split in the SNP. Wouldn't that be fun!
Hasn't been an exciting political story out of there for months, most disappointing. Wales tried its best with a row about 20mph rules, but it never really took off, Northern Ireland has been stuck in a loop for about 5 years, and England is just watching in morbid fascination as the government slowly circles the drain.
The DUP have recently indicated that they might possibly, with some more concessions, end their boycott of Stormont. Some in the party appear worried about big seat losses at Westminster if they don’t.
Someone called Ash Regan (nope, me neither) has left the SNP group in Holyrood and joined the true voice for Indy, Alba.
Actual political betting news!
Alba got off to a good start with 2 MPs defecting to them, but this is their first MSP. They were the 6th largest party at the last Scottish Parliamentary election, but still some way off winning a seat. Might they win a seat next time? Do they have any chance at the next general election of holding their defections?
QTWTAIN.
Both Alba MP’s seats are ones that Labour would expect to win, even if they were standing against the SNP instead of Alba.
Ash Regan has defected from the SNP to Alba. The rats leaving the sinking ship, sorry defections from the SNP are starting to get significant.
I wish you and the SNP the best in your future endeavours, even as our paths diverge for now.
I noticed that too. Presumably if the SNP returned to the path of righteousness (and gets rid of these bloody Greens).
I was watching STV at 6 yesterday because my son in law was on the TV in relation to his work. The 2 ministers interviewed about issues were Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater. Dogs and tails and the wagging thereof came to mind.
"A 1.5 degree rise will give us a temperature more akin to central France" Leaving aside the Gulf Stream switching off, an influx of pests with no control species, a loss of quick growing pine forests when we most need them, a change in vegetation without the soil microorganisms to facilitate growth, a reduction in protein as crops grow quicker etc etc. There's a lot more to climate change than temperature.
What are you saying? There’s not way to avoid a 1.5 degree increase at least. Most likely the best case is 2-2.5. That’s just reality. We’ve got a plan in place to avert the terrifying scenarios and now we love with what happens.
That's playing the blind optimism card rather strongly.
No it’s reality. 2.5 worst case allowing for the fact that no one is actually going to do the unpopular stuff like giving up meat. One of my issues with the likes of Thunberg is the outdated discussion of things like extinction. It makes kids panic and feel really scared, when we should be past that.
It really annoys me that people like me, who were working on this 20 years ago and trying to get people interested, are now viewed as sceptics because we are happy with how far we have come and see it as a win.
The Thunberg/Extinction Rebellion stuff is selfish and performative.
Someone called Ash Regan (nope, me neither) has left the SNP group in Holyrood and joined the true voice for Indy, Alba.
Actual political betting news!
Alba got off to a good start with 2 MPs defecting to them, but this is their first MSP. They were the 6th largest party at the last Scottish Parliamentary election, but still some way off winning a seat. Might they win a seat next time? Do they have any chance at the next general election of holding their defections?
QTWTAIN.
Both Alba MP’s seats are ones that Labour would expect to win, even if they were standing against the SNP instead of Alba.
Someone called Ash Regan (nope, me neither) has left the SNP group in Holyrood and joined the true voice for Indy, Alba.
Actual political betting news!
Alba got off to a good start with 2 MPs defecting to them, but this is their first MSP. They were the 6th largest party at the last Scottish Parliamentary election, but still some way off winning a seat. Might they win a seat next time? Do they have any chance at the next general election of holding their defections?
QTWTAIN.
Both Alba MP’s seats are ones that Labour would expect to win, even if they were standing against the SNP instead of Alba.
Yep, and with a split vote they are nailed on.
Alba got, what, 2% standing for Holyrood? Without a good and proper division in the party is there going to be much of a split vote?
Someone called Ash Regan (nope, me neither) has left the SNP group in Holyrood and joined the true voice for Indy, Alba.
Actual political betting news!
Alba got off to a good start with 2 MPs defecting to them, but this is their first MSP. They were the 6th largest party at the last Scottish Parliamentary election, but still some way off winning a seat. Might they win a seat next time? Do they have any chance at the next general election of holding their defections?
QTWTAIN.
Both Alba MP’s seats are ones that Labour would expect to win, even if they were standing against the SNP instead of Alba.
Yep, and with a split vote they are nailed on.
Alba got, what, 2% standing for Holyrood? Without a good and proper division in the party is there going to be much of a split vote?
They only stood in the regional seats, where they got 1.66%.
However, I think they’re in a stronger position now than they were at that election.
Someone called Ash Regan (nope, me neither) has left the SNP group in Holyrood and joined the true voice for Indy, Alba.
Actual political betting news!
Alba got off to a good start with 2 MPs defecting to them, but this is their first MSP. They were the 6th largest party at the last Scottish Parliamentary election, but still some way off winning a seat. Might they win a seat next time? Do they have any chance at the next general election of holding their defections?
I think that's basically no and no.
However, if they stand in the Westminster elections, they might deprive the SNP of a handful of seats by peeling off a few hundred voters in each seat, for whom the SNP aren't nationalist enough.
Someone called Ash Regan (nope, me neither) has left the SNP group in Holyrood and joined the true voice for Indy, Alba.
Actual political betting news!
Alba got off to a good start with 2 MPs defecting to them, but this is their first MSP. They were the 6th largest party at the last Scottish Parliamentary election, but still some way off winning a seat. Might they win a seat next time? Do they have any chance at the next general election of holding their defections?
I think that's basically no and no.
However, if they stand in the Westminster elections, they might deprive the SNP of a handful of seats by peeling off a few hundred voters in each seat, for whom the SNP aren't nationalist enough.
If Salmond disappeared and Regan took over as leader, would that change their fortunes?
Someone called Ash Regan (nope, me neither) has left the SNP group in Holyrood and joined the true voice for Indy, Alba.
Actual political betting news!
Alba got off to a good start with 2 MPs defecting to them, but this is their first MSP. They were the 6th largest party at the last Scottish Parliamentary election, but still some way off winning a seat. Might they win a seat next time? Do they have any chance at the next general election of holding their defections?
QTWTAIN.
Both Alba MP’s seats are ones that Labour would expect to win, even if they were standing against the SNP instead of Alba.
Yep, and with a split vote they are nailed on.
Alba got, what, 2% standing for Holyrood? Without a good and proper division in the party is there going to be much of a split vote?
No, I don't think so, hence my QTWTAIN answer earlier. But sitting MPs may well have some following and that will be to the direct detriment of the SNP vote in those 2 seats.
Not super healthy for the Union, to say the least. in terms of morale of one side over the other.
No, and ultimately that’s down to one thing. It begins with a B and ends -it.
I don't think that's right. Things were trending in this direction before 2016, because Unionism is in a very negative frame of mind that is fixated more on frustrating Nationalists, than on making the status quo for Northern Ireland a success.
It's that negative mindset that led to them supporting Brexit in the first place, in the hope of creating a barrier between Northern Ireland and the rest of the island of Ireland.
If the status quo is broken Irish Unity looks like an obvious way forward. What alternative do Unionists provide? They have to make the status quo work.
Lets hope that Ms Regan leads a sizeable split in the SNP. Wouldn't that be fun!
Hasn't been an exciting political story out of there for months, most disappointing. Wales tried its best with a row about 20mph rules, but it never really took off, Northern Ireland has been stuck in a loop for about 5 years, and England is just watching in morbid fascination as the government slowly circles the drain.
The DUP have recently indicated that they might possibly, with some more concessions, end their boycott of Stormont. Some in the party appear worried about big seat losses at Westminster if they don’t.
They might have even bigger losses if they do before NI has exactly the same post Brexit terms as GB as the TUV could then stand against them which they don't normally do at FPTP Westminster elections unlike PR Stormont elections.
Ironically the DUP would probably be better with a Starmer government than another Tory government after the next election as Starmer would likely align GB closer to EU regulations and reduce the split between the terms NI has and GB has.
Donaldson has in fact already clearly seen the writing on the wall for Sunak and the Tories and held talks with Starmer a few weeks ago. '“They’ve been interesting discussions,” Sir Jeffrey said, “Labour does have a plan in terms of how it will deal with some of the issues that confront us, including on EU regulations and on veterinary agreements.
“If Labour were to proceed on the basis they’ve spoken of for the United Kingdom as a whole, and let’s be clear, it’s UK-wide they’re speaking here, not specifically on Northern Ireland, then that would help to ease many of the difficulties that we have in moving goods, particularly from Great Britain to Northern Ireland.
“But, look, I’m not waiting on that, to be absolutely clear… I’m working to get an agreement with the current government, I don’t want to wait another year.
Not super healthy for the Union, to say the least. in terms of morale of one side over the other.
How is O’Neill at net positive? You’d assume all unionists would be negative about her. The world has changed if they aren’t.
I have no idea how people respond to that sort of question within a sectarian divide. The raw numbers are 43% approve, 37% disapprove and 20% don't know.
Oh, hold on... the pollster, LucidTalk, must have details! Let's go find them...
Lets hope that Ms Regan leads a sizeable split in the SNP. Wouldn't that be fun!
Hasn't been an exciting political story out of there for months, most disappointing. Wales tried its best with a row about 20mph rules, but it never really took off, Northern Ireland has been stuck in a loop for about 5 years, and England is just watching in morbid fascination as the government slowly circles the drain.
The DUP have recently indicated that they might possibly, with some more concessions, end their boycott of Stormont. Some in the party appear worried about big seat losses at Westminster if they don’t.
By “concessions” do they mean “billions”?
I think that, genuinely, they don't. The bigger issue for NI unionists at the moment is access to UK markets following Brexit/Windsor Protocol. If they are increasingly more of a part of an Irish/European market, and less of a part of the UK-zone, that's existentially bad news for unionists long term. Cash for services in NI might sweeten the deal, but it's really not what it's about.
A problem the DUP helped to a degree to make for itself in 2016, of course.
Not super healthy for the Union, to say the least. in terms of morale of one side over the other.
No, and ultimately that’s down to one thing. It begins with a B and ends -it.
I don't think that's right. Things were trending in this direction before 2016, because Unionism is in a very negative frame of mind that is fixated more on frustrating Nationalists, than on making the status quo for Northern Ireland a success.
It's that negative mindset that led to them supporting Brexit in the first place, in the hope of creating a barrier between Northern Ireland and the rest of the island of Ireland.
If the status quo is broken Irish Unity looks like an obvious way forward. What alternative do Unionists provide? They have to make the status quo work.
Just a reminder. No matter how just you see a cause and no matter how much you cheer it on, once you launch mass violence against your enemy they have a right to reply, however they see fit.
Israel is replying. Dont waste your breath whinging about it when they do and you live in cloud cuckoo land if you somehow think its different.
On the NI leaders ratings, its fair to say political unionism has a turnout issue and Brexit really has done damage but, even with that, you just dont have enough support for UI to make it a slam dunk. Unionists, by default expect NI to work, ie run itself. Thus the current DUP boycott is damaging. Its fine if Sinn Fein boycott it, as they did due to shitty election results a lot of years back, because no one expects any less. When the whole point of the Union is that Northern Ireland exists it doesnt go down well if pro union parties bring the Assembly down.
Donaldson wants back in, he has some internal issues there to resolve and some figleafs from HMG which he is likely to get. Just yesterday I was told the mood music is that something is likely to give shortly.
Someone called Ash Regan (nope, me neither) has left the SNP group in Holyrood and joined the true voice for Indy, Alba.
Actual political betting news!
Alba got off to a good start with 2 MPs defecting to them, but this is their first MSP. They were the 6th largest party at the last Scottish Parliamentary election, but still some way off winning a seat. Might they win a seat next time? Do they have any chance at the next general election of holding their defections?
I think that's basically no and no.
However, if they stand in the Westminster elections, they might deprive the SNP of a handful of seats by peeling off a few hundred voters in each seat, for whom the SNP aren't nationalist enough.
If Salmond disappeared and Regan took over as leader, would that change their fortunes?
She seemed rather lightweight to me based on what I saw during the SNP leadership contest.
The DUP are up slightly in the polls compared to their 2022 Assembly result (26% versus 21%). Looking at crosstabs (available at https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/ni-tracker-poll-summer-2023 ), that's mostly by getting the support of TUV voters, and a few UUP ones.
The DUP, Alliance and SF all retain >90% of their 2022 voters, while the UUP and Aontu retain >80%. The churn is in the other parties. 10% of Green voters now support Alliance. 16% of PBP voters support Alliance, while 13% support SF. 16% of SDLP voters support Alliance and 19% SF. 41% of TUV voters support the DUP.
The DUP are up slightly in the polls compared to their 2022 Assembly result (26% versus 21%). Looking at crosstabs (available at https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/ni-tracker-poll-summer-2023 ), that's mostly by getting the support of TUV voters, and a few UUP ones.
The DUP, Alliance and SF all retain >90% of their 2022 voters, while the UUP and Aontu retain >80%. The churn is in the other parties. 10% of Green voters now support Alliance. 16% of PBP voters support Alliance, while 13% support SF. 16% of SDLP voters support Alliance and 19% SF. 41% of TUV voters support the DUP.
Between them, DUP and TUV have 31%, as do Sinn Fein. SDLP seem in danger of vanishing completely, on 6%. I expect they’ll lose South Belfast to Alliance, and Foyle to Sinn Fein.
The DUP seem likely to reform the Assembly, even if they lose Ian Paisley junior (a gain, IMHO). Winning back pro-Union voters from Alliance, in Lagan Valley, North Down, South Antrim, East Belfast, matters more than losing hardliners to TUV.
Strong rumours on Reddit that OpenAI have achieved AGI to the level of “median human” - which will destroy ~10% of all jobs worldwide (mainly white collar)
This is happening now. If they have AGI they may only be a year or two from ASI and then it’s game over. Especially if the AIs are recursive. Self improving. AI becomes God by April 2025?
Remember you read it here first. And probably last
Someone called Ash Regan (nope, me neither) has left the SNP group in Holyrood and joined the true voice for Indy, Alba.
Actual political betting news!
Alba got off to a good start with 2 MPs defecting to them, but this is their first MSP. They were the 6th largest party at the last Scottish Parliamentary election, but still some way off winning a seat. Might they win a seat next time? Do they have any chance at the next general election of holding their defections?
most of the real independence supporters have gone to Alba, only sheeple left with the gravy train SNP grifters. Given the pasting they are going to get, the donkeys left there would be advised to get out while they have a shred of invisibility.
Lets hope that Ms Regan leads a sizeable split in the SNP. Wouldn't that be fun!
She had one SNP endorser in the leadership election, Joanna Cherry. I’d enjoy it if she did, but JC is too self important to shackle herself to under (non really) performers like Alba.
Its painfully obvious that the SNP have failed to have any kind of succession plan for Sturgeon, and don't seem to have a clue what they are about now that the push for independence has failed.
I think Alex Salmond is an arrogant toad, but like Farage he offers an alternative to people of that persuasion fed up with the chaos / timidity of the big party.
So why not? Most SNP MPs will lose their seats anyway, and the majority in Holyrood looks perilous. What is there to lose?
Can't say I entirely blame them for not having a succession plan. Athough Sturgeon had been there for some time she's not old and the expectation seemed to be she would be there for some time.
She got rid of anybody decent by fair means or foul, was power mad.
Lets hope that Ms Regan leads a sizeable split in the SNP. Wouldn't that be fun!
She had one SNP endorser in the leadership election, Joanna Cherry. I’d enjoy it if she did, but JC is too self important to shackle herself to under (non really) performers like Alba.
SNP are already in tatters and circling the drain, devoid of talent and run by fcukwits of teh highest order. Destruction is too good for them, be nice if they were wiped out.
Is it legitimate to flatten a building housing hundreds of civilians to kill a few Hamas fighters ?
Where do you draw the line ?
Well, that's the hard question. Was it legitimate to kill 11,000 civilians in Mosul, and displace hundreds of thousands, to eradicate IS in 2017? On balance, I think most of us would say that it was.
Urban fighting, against people who simply use civilians as shields, is horrendous.
Unfortunately, Israel won't get much credit if they limit civilian casualties to several thousand as opposed to tens of thousands.
Comments
Leaving aside the Gulf Stream switching off, an influx of pests with no control species, a loss of quick growing pine forests when we most need them, a change in vegetation without the soil microorganisms to facilitate growth, a reduction in protein as crops grow quicker etc etc. There's a lot more to climate change than temperature.
This was all the more ironic because much of the top leadership of the Soviet Union including pretty much all its de facto leaders after Lenin* were not, in fact, Russian. They were Georgian, Ukrainian, mixed Russian and Ukrainian and one Siberian.
*The exception was Andropov.
Ash Regan has defected from the SNP to Alba. The rats leaving the sinking ship, sorry defections from the SNP are starting to get significant.
Given she’s still the only Alba MSP, that must have been a difficult decision to make her the party’s Holyrood leader…
Every leader is, in some respects, only a stopgap before the next leader, but most of them behave as though they will be leader indefinitely. A bit more humility would be helpful, but asking for it feels futile.
… but they might decide that £billions is a good alternate way to strengthen the Union.
I was watching STV at 6 yesterday because my son in law was on the TV in relation to his work. The 2 ministers interviewed about issues were Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater. Dogs and tails and the wagging thereof came to mind.
It really annoys me that people like me, who were working on this 20 years ago and trying to get people interested, are now viewed as sceptics because we are happy with how far we have come and see it as a win.
The Thunberg/Extinction Rebellion stuff is selfish and performative.
O’Neill (SF): +6%
Donaldson (DUP): -42%
Long (Alliance): -1%
Beattie (UUP): -4%
Eastwood (SDLP): -17%
Allister (TUV): -40%
Sunak: -66%
However, I think they’re in a stronger position now than they were at that election.
However, if they stand in the Westminster elections, they might deprive the SNP of a handful of seats by peeling off a few hundred voters in each seat, for whom the SNP aren't nationalist enough.
It's that negative mindset that led to them supporting Brexit in the first place, in the hope of creating a barrier between Northern Ireland and the rest of the island of Ireland.
If the status quo is broken Irish Unity looks like an obvious way forward. What alternative do Unionists provide? They have to make the status quo work.
Ironically the DUP would probably be better with a Starmer government than another Tory government after the next election as Starmer would likely align GB closer to EU regulations and reduce the split between the terms NI has and GB has.
Donaldson has in fact already clearly seen the writing on the wall for Sunak and the Tories and held talks with Starmer a few weeks ago. '“They’ve been interesting discussions,” Sir Jeffrey said, “Labour does have a plan in terms of how it will deal with some of the issues that confront us, including on EU regulations and on veterinary agreements.
“If Labour were to proceed on the basis they’ve spoken of for the United Kingdom as a whole, and let’s be clear, it’s UK-wide they’re speaking here, not specifically on Northern Ireland, then that would help to ease many of the difficulties that we have in moving goods, particularly from Great Britain to Northern Ireland.
“But, look, I’m not waiting on that, to be absolutely clear… I’m working to get an agreement with the current government, I don’t want to wait another year.
“If we can get this right now, if we can have measures that respect our economic rights as part of the United Kingdom, that restore our place in the UK internal market, why wouldn’t I take that now?” https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/donaldson-confirms-irish-sea-border-talks-with-labour-leader-sir-keir-starmer/a1122218377.html
Oh, hold on... the pollster, LucidTalk, must have details! Let's go find them...
Try https://2cd94078-c938-4bdd-a389-b84e5ba88e0d.usrfiles.com/ugd/2cd940_a2b6099200394e98bdff1ae753212445.pdf
NEW THREAD
A problem the DUP helped to a degree to make for itself in 2016, of course.
https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2022/12/03/poll-shows-northern-ireland-rejects-unity-by-large-margin/
Israel is replying. Dont waste your breath whinging about it when they do and you live in cloud cuckoo land if you somehow think its different.
On the NI leaders ratings, its fair to say political unionism has a turnout issue and Brexit really has done damage but, even with that, you just dont have enough support for UI to make it a slam dunk. Unionists, by default expect NI to work, ie run itself. Thus the current DUP boycott is damaging. Its fine if Sinn Fein boycott it, as they did due to shitty election results a lot of years back, because no one expects any less. When the whole point of the Union is that Northern Ireland exists it doesnt go down well if pro union parties bring the Assembly down.
Donaldson wants back in, he has some internal issues there to resolve and some figleafs from HMG which he is likely to get. Just yesterday I was told the mood music is that something is likely to give shortly.
The DUP, Alliance and SF all retain >90% of their 2022 voters, while the UUP and Aontu retain >80%. The churn is in the other parties. 10% of Green voters now support Alliance. 16% of PBP voters support Alliance, while 13% support SF. 16% of SDLP voters support Alliance and 19% SF. 41% of TUV voters support the DUP.
The DUP seem likely to reform the Assembly, even if they lose Ian Paisley junior (a gain, IMHO). Winning back pro-Union voters from Alliance, in Lagan Valley, North Down, South Antrim, East Belfast, matters more than losing hardliners to TUV.
They'll be criticised heavily regardless.
But that's war. Nothing pretty about it.