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By wins for LAB in the byelections – politicalbetting.com

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809

    High interest rates just puts a cap on the *price* of housing. The actual cost per month will probably be the same, since too many people are chasing too few properties.

    So the telephone number prices will come down a bit. The people paying mortgages (their own or other people’s) won’t see much relief.
    That's true to some extent. We just differ on how much of an extent.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,819

    There is some talk of the Republican MAGA caucus going for Trump next.
    Trump is far too bone idle to go for that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,570
    Tres said:

    Trump is far too bone idle to go for that.
    But he would love to hear them say they want him. And pleasing him is the best thing most of them can do for their careers.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,729
    rcs1000 said:

    The lack of self awareness from people like Gaetz is quite astonishing.
    Oh, they know what they’re doing.
    It’s more the lack of shame or compunction.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Given that Labour doesn't even have the balls to include social care in its manifesto - reform of which would do more to help the NHS and council finances than any other single measure - you'd have to be heroically hopeful to expect NHS or welfare reform, let alone both. What a stupid response. Technology makes ID cards - and the database that goes with it - very much worse. Think about it: governments which thought an IT project like Horizon (or any of the many other failed government IT projects over the years) a good idea trying to implement ID cards.

    To be any use you will have to carry with them all the time thus giving our wonderful police (heavy sarcasm alert) yet another opportunity to harass and boss us around, especially coupled with Patel's Protest Act which Labour won't repeal.

    Yes - I can see Starmer going for it because this sort of authoritarian nonsense is in his and Labour's DNA. Still makes it a stupid and dangerous idea.
    Speaking of Labour DNA, recent read the Diaries of Tony Benn, and on number of entries he made same point your making re: technology making ID cards increasingly dangerous.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited October 2023
    Leon said:

    I think we need a new thread on what amazing/revolutionary things a Starmer government might do if he gets 100+ seat majority and almost guaranteed two terms

    Coz it is looking quite possible

    Given the fiscal restraints surely the big things are

    1 real reform of the NHS
    2 making the welfare state contributory
    3 ID cards?
    4 turn the House of Lords into a federal senate

    What else?

    Forget about all of those, it's introducing proportional representation that would be important. The Tories would never be able to win again on their own.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,797
    Cyclefree said:

    Given that Labour doesn't even have the balls to include social care in its manifesto - reform of which would do more to help the NHS and council finances than any other single measure - you'd have to be heroically hopeful to expect NHS or welfare reform, let alone both. What a stupid response. Technology makes ID cards - and the database that goes with it - very much worse. Think about it: governments which thought an IT project like Horizon (or any of the many other failed government IT projects over the years) a good idea trying to implement ID cards.

    To be any use you will have to carry with them all the time thus giving our wonderful police (heavy sarcasm alert) yet another opportunity to harass and boss us around, especially coupled with Patel's Protest Act which Labour won't repeal.

    Yes - I can see Starmer going for it because this sort of authoritarian nonsense is in his and Labour's DNA. Still makes it a stupid and dangerous idea.
    Compared to what certainly approaches us - AI. AGI. ASI, and the overwhelming power of AI-fuelled technocracy - ID cards are yesterday's rather trivial battle. Trust me

    AI has the ability to enforce near-crime-free societies. We will take the chance, and hand it all over to the robots
  • Nigelb said:

    Oh, they know what they’re doing.
    It’s more the lack of shame or compunction.
    And Gaetz did even attend Eton. Where he'd no doubt made a 1st-rate school bully.

    An American Bully!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,797
    I heard things about Owen Jones that REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED blush
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,797
    Andy_JS said:

    Forget about all of those, it's introducing proportional representation that would be important. The Tories would never be able to win again on their own.
    But, probably, nor would Labour. Can't see it
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,629
    Hoping the second semi is a bit closer than the first…
  • Andy_JS said:

    Forget about all of those, it's introducing proportional representation that would be important. The Tories would never be able to win again on their own.
    I'd quite like to see proportional representation so Labiur would never be able to govern on their own!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,797

    Hoping the second semi is a bit closer than the first…

    This is pretty dreadful as a competiton. It's like one of the worst of the pool games. Really not good for rugby

    The draw was a disgrace

    The two semi finals have already been played: SA v France, NZ v Ireland
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,629
    Leon said:

    This is pretty dreadful as a competiton. It's like one of the worst of the pool games. Really not good for rugby

    The draw was a disgrace

    The two semi finals have already been played: SA v France, NZ v Ireland
    Last weekend was epic. This weekend could be a damp squid.*


    *I know it’s squib but can’t resist using squid as I’ve seen others use it in earnest…
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    Leon said:

    Compared to what certainly approaches us - AI. AGI. ASI, and the overwhelming power of AI-fuelled technocracy - ID cards are yesterday's rather trivial battle. Trust me

    AI has the ability to enforce near-crime-free societies. We will take the chance, and hand it all over to the robots
    Like China, you mean.

    A nightmare vision - and one I am glad I won't be living in.

    As for a crime free society, that's La La Land - crime will exist wherever humans exist. And technology of the sort that so captivates you will make it worse.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,629
    Leon said:

    This is pretty dreadful as a competiton. It's like one of the worst of the pool games. Really not good for rugby

    The draw was a disgrace

    The two semi finals have already been played: SA v France, NZ v Ireland
    Quite why they thought that France couldn’t organise the staging with a draw say six months out - like the bigger Football World Cup, I have no idea.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,737
    Cyclefree said:

    Given that Labour doesn't even have the balls to include social care in its manifesto - reform of which would do more to help the NHS and council finances than any other single measure - you'd have to be heroically hopeful to expect NHS or welfare reform, let alone both. What a stupid response. Technology makes ID cards - and the database that goes with it - very much worse. Think about it: governments which thought an IT project like Horizon (or any of the many other failed government IT projects over the years) a good idea trying to implement ID cards.

    To be any use you will have to carry with them all the time thus giving our wonderful police (heavy sarcasm alert) yet another opportunity to harass and boss us around, especially coupled with Patel's Protest Act which Labour won't repeal.

    Yes - I can see Starmer going for it because this sort of authoritarian nonsense is in his and Labour's DNA. Still makes it a stupid and dangerous idea.
    Sorry but that isn't true - my go to story for ID cards is that it allows any employee to quickly see if John Smith has the right to work in the UK..

    Now that isn't a problem for many of us on here because the go to approach is check the passport a person has but in poor area where passports aren't so common it's incredibly hard for many people to prove they have the right to work in the UK..
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,797

    Last weekend was epic. This weekend could be a damp squid.*


    *I know it’s squib but can’t resist using squid as I’ve seen others use it in earnest…
    England maybe have a slender claim to a place in the semis - unbeaten, the winning game against Argie with 14 men, beating Fiji, Argentina have no such claim, all they did was beat Wales FFS

    I really wish rugby had more strength in depth, worldwide, but it doesn't. It needs three or four more teams to be REALLY competitive - ie capable of beating the best at any time. Japan? Georgia? Italy? Portugal? Imagine four more world class teams to add to the top five or six. Then a world cup would be a superb thing. Like football

    So far, it isn't near that
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    eek said:

    Sorry but that isn't true - my go to story for ID cards is that it allows any employee to quickly see if John Smith has the right to work in the UK..

    Now that isn't a problem for many of us on here because the go to approach is check the passport a person has but in poor area where passports aren't so common it's incredibly hard for many people to prove they have the right to work in the UK..
    If ID cards are brought in I guarantee you that the authorities will require them to be carried at all times. The police for one will agitate for this as they will claim it will make life easier for them.


  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,797
    edited October 2023
    Cyclefree said:

    Like China, you mean.

    A nightmare vision - and one I am glad I won't be living in.

    As for a crime free society, that's La La Land - crime will exist wherever humans exist. And technology of the sort that so captivates you will make it worse.
    It doesn't "captivate" me at all, I'm just honestly extrapolating. It could easily be dystopian

    I'm merely pointing out the likely future. Most people will hand over alleged social "freedoms" for total crime-free security
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,819
    Cyclefree said:

    If ID cards are brought in I guarantee you that the authorities will require them to be carried at all times. The police for one will agitate for this as they will claim it will make life easier for them.


    That'll be a particular nuisance for those on the board who have forsaken their wallets.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Leon said:

    This is pretty dreadful as a competiton. It's like one of the worst of the pool games. Really not good for rugby

    The draw was a disgrace

    The two semi finals have already been played: SA v France, NZ v Ireland
    Oddly enough the cricket world cup has also been pretty poor, with hardly any close matches. Today's game between Australia and Pakistan was the closest one so far IIRC.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,629
    Cyclefree said:

    If ID cards are brought in I guarantee you that the authorities will require them to be carried at all times. The police for one will agitate for this as they will claim it will make life easier for them.


    I’m not convinced. After all, you are not required to carry your driving licence when driving.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    edited October 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone ever lost money betting on the New Zealand rugby team?

    Yes, me. On three occasions. I’ve seen the All Blacks play live twice, at Twickenham in 2002 and in 2012, and England won them both. On both occasions I had money on NZ. The other time was when I drew them in a work sweepstake at the 2007 RWC.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,845
    Leon said:

    It doesn't "captivate" me at all, I'm just honestly extrapolating. It could easily be dystopian

    I'm merely pointing out the likely future. Most people will hand over alleged social "freedoms" for total crime-free security
    It will be like living in a giant airport terminal.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Cookie said:

    That'll be a particular nuisance for those on the board who have forsaken their wallets.
    Microchips for them.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    nico679 said:

    Some good news . Hamas have released two American hostages .

    No more detail as to how this was brokered .

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Liz Truss was not involved in facilitating the negotiation. The final piece of the jigsaw that brings her back perhaps?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,290
    Do you know what time it is?

    It's all the trains are fucked o'clock

    I am stuck in [train station] amongst the drunks, and my ETA back to little flat is "probably before midnight". Apparently most of England is underwater. This may be an aesthetic improvement but Charlie Train Don't Surf. All the big butch trains are hiding until they can get their wellies on. Oh, Lord, I'd forgotten how much drunks smell. Friday night, eh?

    Grrr. 👿
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Leon said:

    It doesn't "captivate" me at all, I'm just honestly extrapolating. It could easily be dystopian

    I'm merely pointing out the likely future. Most people will hand over alleged social "freedoms" for total crime-free security
    This does remind me that I’ve not watched Robocop in a while. A masterpiece; possibly Verhoeven’s best (and he’s got quite a catalogue) alongside Black Book.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,819
    Leon said:

    England maybe have a slender claim to a place in the semis - unbeaten, the winning game against Argie with 14 men, beating Fiji, Argentina have no such claim, all they did was beat Wales FFS

    I really wish rugby had more strength in depth, worldwide, but it doesn't. It needs three or four more teams to be REALLY competitive - ie capable of beating the best at any time. Japan? Georgia? Italy? Portugal? Imagine four more world class teams to add to the top five or six. Then a world cup would be a superb thing. Like football

    So far, it isn't near that
    The blessing and the curse of rugby is that the best team always wins. Now, sometimes an on-paper better team might get beaten if the underdog puts on the performance if their lives - but in football, Brazil might sometimes lose to much poorer opposition in a way that simply doesn't happen to New Zealand in rugby.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,290
    viewcode said:

    Do you know what time it is?

    It's all the trains are fucked o'clock

    I am stuck in [train station] amongst the drunks, and my ETA back to little flat is "probably before midnight". Apparently most of England is underwater. This may be an aesthetic improvement but Charlie Train Don't Surf. All the big butch trains are hiding until they can get their wellies on. Oh, Lord, I'd forgotten how much drunks smell. Friday night, eh?

    Grrr. 👿

    When I am made supreme commander of the universe I will ban alcohol. And people. And trains. Sensible policies for a happier Britain.

    (And I'll still get more votes than Sunak... 😀)
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    Quite why they thought that France couldn’t organise the staging with a draw say six months out - like the bigger Football World Cup, I have no idea.
    The draw always happens a couple of years in advance. There was nothing new about it this time. It’s a flaw but not a new flaw at this RWC.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,772
    England are 20 on Betfair to win World Cup.

    Just two wins ...........
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited October 2023
    viewcode said:

    Do you know what time it is?

    It's all the trains are fucked o'clock

    I am stuck in [train station] amongst the drunks, and my ETA back to little flat is "probably before midnight". Apparently most of England is underwater. This may be an aesthetic improvement but Charlie Train Don't Surf. All the big butch trains are hiding until they can get their wellies on. Oh, Lord, I'd forgotten how much drunks smell. Friday night, eh?

    Grrr. 👿

    You'd have thought the UK would have learnt how to cope with rain by now.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    Ghedebrav said:

    Microchips for them.
    fingerprints should be sufficient

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    Cookie said:

    The blessing and the curse of rugby is that the best team always wins. Now, sometimes an on-paper better team might get beaten if the underdog puts on the performance if their lives - but in football, Brazil might sometimes lose to much poorer opposition in a way that simply doesn't happen to New Zealand in rugby.
    That’s not true. France won the Wooden Spoon in the 1999 5 Nations (soon to become 6) then famously beat the AB’s in the semi finals that November. See also England v Australia at RWC 2007 and various times England have fallen at the final hurdle of a Grand Slam attempt.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,570

    I’m not convinced. After all, you are not required to carry your driving licence when driving.
    Not convinced it will happen or not convinced they will try to make it happen?

    The idea keeps coming up over and over again, and always sold as some grand user friendly thing that could not possibly be misused, but frankly to me the benefits claimed seem marginal and the risks great, so it a watchful eye needs to be kept for moves in that direction. It's non-partisan as well, it just seems attractive to governments generally.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    Leon said:

    It doesn't "captivate" me at all, I'm just honestly extrapolating. It could easily be dystopian

    I'm merely pointing out the likely future. Most people will hand over alleged social "freedoms" for total crime-free security
    They'll hand over freedoms and get no security in return.

    We've seen this story play out before.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    Leon said:

    I think we need a new thread on what amazing/revolutionary things a Starmer government might do if he gets 100+ seat majority and almost guaranteed two terms

    Coz it is looking quite possible

    Given the fiscal restraints surely the big things are

    1 real reform of the NHS
    2 making the welfare state contributory
    3 ID cards?
    4 turn the House of Lords into a federal senate

    What else?

    You’re demonstrating your inability to think outside the box there, rather embarrassingly.

    There is no need to for Starmer to be especially fiscally constrained. He could raise plenty more by:
    - extending NI to all earnings (or replacing NI with ICT)
    - increasing taxes on the highest earners
    - introducing a land value tax and/or wealth tax

    Whether Starmer is any better at thinking outside the box than you remains to be seen.
  • DougSeal said:

    The draw always happens a couple of years in advance. There was nothing new about it this time. It’s a flaw but not a new flaw at this RWC.
    There might have been complaints about the seeding when England failed to make it out of their group in 2015 - having been beaten by Wales and Australia - but I don't remember any.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,570
    Leon said:

    It doesn't "captivate" me at all, I'm just honestly extrapolating. It could easily be dystopian

    I'm merely pointing out the likely future. Most people will hand over alleged social "freedoms" for total crime-free security
    I think that's very likely to be honest. Very few of us will be free from giving something up in the name of convenience, I certainly am not free of it, and for the most part if something is not a day to day annoyance we won't care what is lost.

    Sci fi tales about people happily (or mostly happily) living in AI run constant monitoring societies are probably not far off the mark. It depends on the author whether they see that as inherently sinister or not, Iain M Banks vs Neal Asher style.

    Of course, some would claim Demolition Man is the most prescient prediction of today that the past came up with.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,570
    Cyclefree said:

    They'll hand over freedoms and get no security in return.

    We've seen this story play out before.
    It might be said given the way we give up freedoms and rights that we barely deserve them, so are damn lucky we've been in a society which has them in the first place, as most don't.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited October 2023
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,290
    I AM ON THE TRAIN. VIEWCODE IS ON THE TRAIN. SO FAR NO DRUNKS IN THE CARRIAGE. HOPE IS KINDLED.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,955
    kle4 said:

    I think that's very likely to be honest. Very few of us will be free from giving something up in the name of convenience, I certainly am not free of it, and for the most part if something is not a day to day annoyance we won't care what is lost.

    Sci fi tales about people happily (or mostly happily) living in AI run constant monitoring societies are probably not far off the mark. It depends on the author whether they see that as inherently sinister or not, Iain M Banks vs Neal Asher style.

    Of course, some would claim Demolition Man is the most prescient prediction of today that the past came up with.
    When people started doing that elbow bump thing instead of handshakes, I really began to wonder how far away we are from the three seashells in this timeline.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,570
    Ghedebrav said:

    This does remind me that I’ve not watched Robocop in a while. A masterpiece; possibly Verhoeven’s best (and he’s got quite a catalogue) alongside Black Book.
    Total Recall, Starship Troopers, the man could do good sci-fi.

    I read a rumour he deliberately hired good looking but not great actors for Starship Troopers to nail the political propaganda style to everything.
  • geoffw said:

    fingerprints should be sufficient

    About 20 years ago I was pulled over by the police late at night on the motorway (they didn't give me a reason, even though I asked). One checked the car over with a torch, while the other asked for my driving licence, which I didn't have. So they asked me if I had a bank card, which I did, he took it, spoke to someone on the radio, seemed to get some sort of corfirnation, and then sent me on my way. The whole thing was a little weird, but what freaked me out more than anything was the fact that they seemed to be able to confirm my ID from my bank card. Nowadays that wouldn't surprise me, but back then, it seemed a bit Big Brother. It still is a bit Big Brother, but it's sadly the world we live in now. Very little is secret and we can all be tracked very easily (except for covid, apparently)

    As to why they stopped me, I never found out.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Leon said:

    Compared to what certainly approaches us - AI. AGI. ASI, and the overwhelming power of AI-fuelled technocracy - ID cards are yesterday's rather trivial battle. Trust me

    AI has the ability to enforce near-crime-free societies. We will take the chance, and hand it all over to the robots
    I think we are heading inexorably in this direction. If you see the constant failings in the current system of policing in solving crime then the temptation is to just get rid of crime through continuous surveillance. So doing any crime just becomes an act of stupidity. In fact if you look at the tories they are already going along this road, they are uploading all our passport pictures to police AI/facial recognition databases. So this is 13 years after they made a point of scrapping ID cards, out of desperation they do this. The phenomena of crime will eventually just pass. It is the unstoppable desire to look to the government for safety that keeps manifesting itself in various policy initiatives.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,570
    edited October 2023
    kyf_100 said:

    When people started doing that elbow bump thing instead of handshakes, I really began to wonder how far away we are from the three seashells in this timeline.
    A culture run by outwardly peaceful and gentle bureaucrats who nonetheless tyrannically impose their 'superior' values onto everyone by force of law, engaging in hypocritical suppression of those who buck the system as they seek to eliminate any deviation from a neutered, vapid emotional template.

    What's not to love?

    In my darker moments I worry my own placid temperament needs to release a bit of my inner Leon lest that nightmare society is what follows.
  • Andy_JS said:
    Thank god we went up to Newcastle last week.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,737

    You’re demonstrating your inability to think outside the box there, rather embarrassingly.

    There is no need to for Starmer to be especially fiscally constrained. He could raise plenty more by:
    - extending NI to all earnings (or replacing NI with ICT)
    - increasing taxes on the highest earners
    - introducing a land value tax and/or wealth tax

    Whether Starmer is any better at thinking outside the box than you remains to be seen.
    From memory a wealth tax has been ruled out - which is a pity because it would allow council tax to be replaced or at leat replaced by something that reflected current prices.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    Tice now snapping at Rishi's heels

    @TiceRichard
    ·
    18h
    Huge thanks to Ian Cooper
    @Ian4Tamworth
    and Dave Holland
    @midbedsreformuk
    our
    @reformparty_uk
    candidates in the by-elections.

    In both seats
    @reformparty_uk
    ’s share of vote exceeded Labour majority over the Conservatives.

    https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/1715196649264267391?s=20

    @TiceRichard
    Common sense ⁦
    @reformparty_uk
    ⁩ policies gaining traction

    We stand everywhere & will have significant effect at General Election

    Tories & Labour = two forms of socialism: high tax, high regulation = low growth
    https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/1715315638229430323?s=20

    @TiceRichard
    ·
    11h
    Fact is David people do not want to reward 13 yrs Tory broken promises & failure.
    Just consocialists, high tax high regs with mass immigration
    We stand everywhere to punish your party’s failure

    https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/1715401584191078615?s=20
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,603

    About 20 years ago I was pulled over by the police late at night on the motorway (they didn't give me a reason, even though I asked). One checked the car over with a torch, while the other asked for my driving licence, which I didn't have. So they asked me if I had a bank card, which I did, he took it, spoke to someone on the radio, seemed to get some sort of corfirnation, and then sent me on my way. The whole thing was a little weird, but what freaked me out more than anything was the fact that they seemed to be able to confirm my ID from my bank card. Nowadays that wouldn't surprise me, but back then, it seemed a bit Big Brother. It still is a bit Big Brother, but it's sadly the world we live in now. Very little is secret and we can all be tracked very easily (except for covid, apparently)

    As to why they stopped me, I never found out.
    Are you black?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,570
    Andy_JS said:
    Experienced something like that once. All trains out from Kings Cross were cancelled for some reason, so everyone piled across the city to another, then, at peak commuter time in August, stood like literal sardines on the world's slowest trains to get out, as hundreds who normally caught those trains stood on platforms glaring at those of us inside.

    Ghastly.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,290

    About 20 years ago I was pulled over by the police late at night on the motorway (they didn't give me a reason, even though I asked). One checked the car over with a torch, while the other asked for my driving licence, which I didn't have. So they asked me if I had a bank card, which I did, he took it, spoke to someone on the radio, seemed to get some sort of corfirnation, and then sent me on my way. The whole thing was a little weird, but what freaked me out more than anything was the fact that they seemed to be able to confirm my ID from my bank card. Nowadays that wouldn't surprise me, but back then, it seemed a bit Big Brother. It still is a bit Big Brother, but it's sadly the world we live in now. Very little is secret and we can all be tracked very easily (except for covid, apparently)

    As to why they stopped me, I never found out.
    It was probably the shotguns in the back seat

    😀
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,570
    edited October 2023
    Also, I hated the elbow bump thing. I was ok with doing a namaste instead. At least that's something human beings actually do naturally.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,546
    kle4 said:

    Experienced something like that once. All trains out from Kings Cross were cancelled for some reason, so everyone piled across the city to another, then, at peak commuter time in August, stood like literal sardines on the world's slowest trains to get out, as hundreds who normally caught those trains stood on platforms glaring at those of us inside.

    Ghastly.
    Last time I travelled abroad, for whatever reason the only trains from London to Birmingham the night I got back were from Marylebone.

    They were...full.

    I'm going abroad again on Tuesday, I'm hoping the WCML has sorted itself out by then so I can get to Gatwick.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    @SophyRidgeSky
    A few messages I've received from Conservative MPs in response to the by elections:

    "The problem with the PM is while he may be a first rate academic he is a fifth rate politician. He does not connect, he has the leadership qualities of an amoeba."
    https://x.com/SophyRidgeSky/status/1715445358887645595?s=20
  • viewcode said:

    It was probably the shotguns in the back seat

    😀
    😂 Actually two small children saying "are we there yet?" which were far more terrifying
    The other half suggested that an old, arge but very powerful car being driven late at night was a red flag. Who knows? They were probably bored and wanted to harass someone
  • HYUFD said:

    Tice now snapping at Rishi's heels

    @TiceRichard
    ·
    18h
    Huge thanks to Ian Cooper
    @Ian4Tamworth
    and Dave Holland
    @midbedsreformuk
    our
    @reformparty_uk
    candidates in the by-elections.

    In both seats
    @reformparty_uk
    ’s share of vote exceeded Labour majority over the Conservatives.

    https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/1715196649264267391?s=20

    @TiceRichard
    Common sense ⁦
    @reformparty_uk
    ⁩ policies gaining traction

    We stand everywhere & will have significant effect at General Election

    Tories & Labour = two forms of socialism: high tax, high regulation = low growth
    https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/1715315638229430323?s=20

    @TiceRichard
    ·
    11h
    Fact is David people do not want to reward 13 yrs Tory broken promises & failure.
    Just consocialists, high tax high regs with mass immigration
    We stand everywhere to punish your party’s failure

    https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/1715401584191078615?s=20

    Why isn't he doing the decent, Farage-like thing and giving a clear run to those Tory MPs who share his vision?
  • Are you black?
    😂
    No.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Serious question. Is the drought over in southern England?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,290
    kle4 said:

    Total Recall, Starship Troopers, the man could do good sci-fi.

    I read a rumour he deliberately hired good looking but not great actors for Starship Troopers to nail the political propaganda style to everything.
    I seem to remember that. It would explain the acting styles in "Showgirls". He had the men and women shower together in the shower scene. To "reassure" them he also showered nude. Verhoeven is - how can I put it - a massive perve. He's basically Goldmember with better hair. But for about ten-fifteen years he made great choices. Total Recall, Robocop, Starship Troopers. Not bad to have those on your CV.
  • HYUFD said:

    @SophyRidgeSky
    A few messages I've received from Conservative MPs in response to the by elections:

    "The problem with the PM is while he may be a first rate academic he is a fifth rate politician. He does not connect, he has the leadership qualities of an amoeba."
    https://x.com/SophyRidgeSky/status/1715445358887645595?s=20

    'first rate academic'?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    The Tories according to the DT hope to get an election boost by giving higher earners a tax cut . Apparently polls show its popular with Tory voters whilst everyone else effectively is told to go and fxck themselves !

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,290

    😂 Actually two small children saying "are we there yet?" which were far more terrifying
    The other half suggested that an old, arge but very powerful car being driven late at night was a red flag. Who knows? They were probably bored and wanted to harass someone
    What colour was the car? Was it in the time where they used to play Car Snooker?
  • nico679 said:

    The Tories according to the DT hope to get an election boost by giving higher earners a tax cut . Apparently polls show its popular with Tory voters whilst everyone else effectively is told to go and fxck themselves !

    Rev HY suggested the same earlier. Apparently Tory voters do not send their kids to school, use the NHS, get their bins collected etc etc so do not worry that everything is broken.

    Well, apart from Tory voters in these seats they keep losing.
  • So, this storm. Right bastard, isn't it?
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,215

    😂 Actually two small children saying "are we there yet?" which were far more terrifying
    The other half suggested that an old, arge but very powerful car being driven late at night was a red flag. Who knows? They were probably bored and wanted to harass someone
    Could have been playing Motorway Snooker

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/422651.stm
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    HYUFD said:

    @SophyRidgeSky
    A few messages I've received from Conservative MPs in response to the by elections:

    "The problem with the PM is while he may be a first rate academic he is a fifth rate politician. He does not connect, he has the leadership qualities of an amoeba."
    https://x.com/SophyRidgeSky/status/1715445358887645595?s=20

    Maybe Tory members made the right decision in choosing Truss over Sunak.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,546
    edited October 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    Serious question. Is the drought over in southern England?

    It's certainly easier. For example, reservoirs in South West Water's area are fuller than they were in January.

    https://www.southwestwater.co.uk/environment/water-resources/reservoir-levels

    It depends somewhat on how much of this rain ends up in the reservoirs and how much simply flows straight out of the area.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    nico679 said:

    The Tories according to the DT hope to get an election boost by giving higher earners a tax cut . Apparently polls show its popular with Tory voters whilst everyone else effectively is told to go and fxck themselves !

    Well as the Tories aren't even winning most high earners at the moment and have next to no chance of winning most of the rest it is worth a shot
  • viewcode said:

    What colour was the car? Was it in the time where they used to play Car Snooker?
    Hahaha that's a possibility, I guess.

    I think where I was coming from is that we don't need ID cards, they can already find out who we are from our bank, our phone, our driving licence etc. However I'm sure the police would *love* us to have to carry ID cards because they are lazy and it will make their job easier
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043

    Rev HY suggested the same earlier. Apparently Tory voters do not send their kids to school, use the NHS, get their bins collected etc etc so do not worry that everything is broken.

    Well, apart from Tory voters in these seats they keep losing.
    Some do but their kids go to private school not the local comp and they have private health insurance and rarely use the NHS
  • eekeek Posts: 29,737
    kle4 said:

    Experienced something like that once. All trains out from Kings Cross were cancelled for some reason, so everyone piled across the city to another, then, at peak commuter time in August, stood like literal sardines on the world's slowest trains to get out, as hundreds who normally caught those trains stood on platforms glaring at those of us inside.

    Ghastly.
    Last time we got to King’s Cross to discover all trains were cancelled I was on the WCML heading to Manchester sat at the only unbooked table within 30 minutes.

    Being polite to people works wonders if you combine that with running quickly…

    It did mean that a 2.5 hour journey took 5 hours but the refund meant it was completely free.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,570
    HYUFD said:

    @SophyRidgeSky
    A few messages I've received from Conservative MPs in response to the by elections:

    "The problem with the PM is while he may be a first rate academic he is a fifth rate politician. He does not connect, he has the leadership qualities of an amoeba."
    https://x.com/SophyRidgeSky/status/1715445358887645595?s=20

    He's ubiquitous and enduring?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    Andy_JS said:

    Maybe Tory members made the right decision in choosing Truss over Sunak.
    Truss was both a fifth rate academic and fifth rate politician.

    Boris was lazier than Rishi but he was a better campaigner and politician
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,215

    Hahaha that's a possibility, I guess.

    I think where I was coming from is that we don't need ID cards, they can already find out who we are from our bank, our phone, our driving licence etc. However I'm sure the police would *love* us to have to carry ID cards because they are lazy and it will make their job easier
    I'm guessing they would have checked the name on your bank card with the name on the insurance for your car, and if it matched, well no problem.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    eek said:

    From memory a wealth tax has been ruled out - which is a pity because it would allow council tax to be replaced or at leat replaced by something that reflected current prices.
    Yeah, I’m hoping Starmer takes one look at the books and says ‘Awful finances, rich are going to have to pay, I’m afraid that promise I made about wealth taxes will have to wait a bit’ or similar.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,546
    HYUFD said:

    Truss was both a fifth rate academic and fifth rate politician.

    Boris was lazier than Rishi but he was a better campaigner and politician
    That's unkind.

    To fifth rate academics and fifth rate politicians.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,729
    boulay said:

    Or the team just doing Kate Bush’s dance from the Wuthering Heights video. The opposition’s brains would be scrambled. Joe Marler channeling his inner heathcliff.
    England could just have the captain declaim the St Crispin’s Day speech from Henry V ?
    Our own centuries old pre-battle cultural tradition.

    The team would need a vocal coach, though.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,303

    You’re demonstrating your inability to think outside the box there, rather embarrassingly.

    There is no need to for Starmer to be especially fiscally constrained. He could raise plenty more by:
    - extending NI to all earnings (or replacing NI with ICT)
    - increasing taxes on the highest earners
    - introducing a land value tax and/or wealth tax

    Whether Starmer is any better at thinking outside the box than you remains to be seen.
    He could impose some of these. The only one that isn't almost certainly going to be vastly more trouble than it's worth is extending NI to everyone although that's entirely the wrong way round to go about it - it would be far better to abolish NI and increase income tax to match.

    LVT isn't necessarily a bad idea, but you're going to have to ditch council tax and business rates as you introduce it, and then fix everything that breaks.

    The highest earners are already taxed at rates the wrong side of the laffer curve. Increasing the exodus of doctors to Australia and software engineers to the US isn't going to solve any problems domestically. Same goes if you try hitting people with wealth taxes - you'll raise a bit, but either the people or the wealth will gradually dissappear, leaving the country poorer.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,570
    ydoethur said:

    That's unkind.

    To fifth rate academics and fifth rate politicians.
    Fifth rate academic seems like a misplaced comparison for a politician, since my understanding was those are the academics who generally rise to run departments and universities.
  • CatMan said:

    I'm guessing they would have checked the name on your bank card with the name on the insurance for your car, and if it matched, well no problem.
    Quite. Or with the DVLA for the keeper of the car. 20 years ago. Why do we need ID cards?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,819

    There might have been complaints about the seeding when England failed to make it out of their group in 2015 - having been beaten by Wales and Australia - but I don't remember any.
    Normally it wouldn't be a problem. There's basically nine top tier teams chasing 8 places - the 6 nations minus Italy plus Aus, NZ, Wal and Arg. The main bone of contention is who gets put in the group with three of those.
    Sometimes one of the fringe-top-tier teams (Fiji, Japan) upsets the apple cart.
    Even so, no draw goes as far as considering who plays who in the group stages. It was just a freakish result that a) the top 4in rugby pulled so far ahead of everyone else in the last 18 months, and b) they all ended up in the same half of the draw.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,546
    kle4 said:

    Fifth rate academic seems like a misplaced comparison for a politician, since my understanding was those are the academics who generally rise to run departments and universities.
    Ah, you have met Robert Pearce?

    Although Mark Drakeford would fit the bill too...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    edited October 2023

    Yeah, I’m hoping Starmer takes one look at the books and says ‘Awful finances, rich are going to have to pay, I’m afraid that promise I made about wealth taxes will have to wait a bit’ or similar.
    If he wants to lose Kensington and Chelsea and Surrey, Brentwood and Sevenoaks and ensure a near wipe out
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,534
    eek said:

    Last time we got to King’s Cross to discover all trains were cancelled I was on the WCML heading to Manchester sat at the only unbooked table within 30 minutes.

    Being polite to people works wonders if you combine that with running quickly…

    It did mean that a 2.5 hour journey took 5 hours but the refund meant it was completely free.
    Why the f are these people trying to travel today? The storm was amber and red warned by Met for days beforehand.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,534
    ydoethur said:

    It's certainly easier. For example, reservoirs in South West Water's area are fuller than they were in January.

    https://www.southwestwater.co.uk/environment/water-resources/reservoir-levels

    It depends somewhat on how much of this rain ends up in the reservoirs and how much simply flows straight out of the area.
    There aren't enough reservoirs in se england iirc. Doesn't matter how full.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Apologies for my poor language . Unfortunately talking about the Tories causes my swear filter to meltdown !
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,534
    nico679 said:

    The Tories according to the DT hope to get an election boost by giving higher earners a tax cut . Apparently polls show its popular with Tory voters whilst everyone else effectively is told to go and fxck themselves !

    Tice: Reform UK will stand in every seat – and make sure the Tories lose

    Telegraph
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    theProle said:

    He could impose some of these. The only one that isn't almost certainly going to be vastly more trouble than it's worth is extending NI to everyone although that's entirely the wrong way round to go about it - it would be far better to abolish NI and increase income tax to match.

    LVT isn't necessarily a bad idea, but you're going to have to ditch council tax and business rates as you introduce it, and then fix everything that breaks.

    The highest earners are already taxed at rates the wrong side of the laffer curve. Increasing the exodus of doctors to Australia and software engineers to the US isn't going to solve any problems domestically. Same goes if you try hitting people with wealth taxes - you'll raise a bit, but either the people or the wealth will gradually dissappear, leaving the country poorer.
    Yes, as I said replace NI with ICT. Do it gradually, 2% a year over 6 years.

    Wtf is the ‘wrong side of the Laffer curve? Please show me your workings including the formula used to plot said curve and the extent to which we poor wealthy sods are the wrong side of it. Thank you.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,534

    Yeah, I’m hoping Starmer takes one look at the books and says ‘Awful finances, rich are going to have to pay, I’m afraid that promise I made about wealth taxes will have to wait a bit’ or similar.
    Item 5 on @Leon list should be 'sort out the planning system'. It would help 1 for a start based on local experience in my woods. Streeting wants to roll hospital type services out to the GPs and local health clinics. But my local GP wanted to build a new practice with exactly that enhanced role and the bloody councillors blocked it because it would involve a new build.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    HYUFD said:

    If he wants to lose Kensington and Chelsea and Surrey, Brentwood and Sevenoaks and ensure a near wipe out
    How many Labour MPs would you expect ‘ Kensington and Chelsea and Surrey, Brentwood and Sevenoaks’ to return if Starmer doesn’t introduce a wealth tax?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,534
    Voters in seven swing states are feeling the pain of rising prices for household essentials, according to a Bloomberg News and Morning Consult poll that points to trouble for President Joe Biden’s effort to make the economy a centerpiece of his bid for a second term.

    Three in four swing-state respondents said that prices have increased in the past month, in line with consumer price data showing that inflation rose 0.4% in September from the previous month. Prices are up 3.7% over the past year, though that’s less than half the pace of the pandemic-era highs.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-20/inflation-economy-lead-us-voters-to-trust-trump-more-than-biden-poll?leadSource=reddit_wall
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    How is Rishi a “first rate academic”?
    He is very good at maths. That’s it.

    There’s no evidence of any intellectual curiosity at all beyond the limit of his own spreadsheet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    edited October 2023

    How many Labour MPs would you expect ‘ Kensington and Chelsea and Fulham, Surrey, Beaconsfield, Brentwood and Sevenoaks’ to return if Starmer doesn’t introduce a wealth tax?
    They could go LD, they could even go RefUK given Tice's low tax agenda.

    The first 2 are also Labour targets
  • HYUFD said:

    They could go LD, they could even go RefUK given Tice's low tax agenda.

    The first 2 are also Labour targets
    They won't go ReFUK. Rich people know they can't vote for crypto-fascists. But people in hartlepools etc? They will. Which is why Labour will sweep the red wall.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,534
    Ken Thomas
    @KThomasDC
    ·
    8h
    Planning is underway for a Dean Phillips presidential launch in Concord, N.H., on Friday Oct. 27, per people familiar with the plans. Phillips has not yet made a final decision to challenge Biden in the Democratic primaries, I'm told.

    https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln



    Rep. Dean Phillips has begun signaling to fellow House members that he plans to launch a challenge to President Joe Biden.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/19/dean-phillips-biden-minnesota-democrat-00122642
This discussion has been closed.