"The two results overnight are huge moments. Both of these seats were won comfortably by the Conservatives at the last election - they should be safe Tory territory.
But their vote collapsed. What we’ve seen is two results of historic significance.
The result in Mid Bedfordshire is the biggest majority to ever be overturned at a by-election. Nadine Dorries won by 24,664 just four years ago.
The result in Tamworth is the second biggest swing from the Conservatives to Labour since World War Two.
Labour have now won four by-elections with big swings in recent months - the others are Selby and Rutherglen.
A lot could happen before a general election. People sometimes vote differently at general elections than they do at by-elections.
But the trend of big swings to Labour is hard to ignore.
It’s hugely encouraging news for Sir Keir Starmer as he eyes up a Labour majority. It’s a nightmare for Rishi Sunak and his MPs."
The Britain Elects map based on the Mid Beds swing is interesting.
Vote Labour in the Danelaw, and LD in Saxon England.
It's interesting: my Surrey lifelong tory's first question was to ask how the LibDems did. That's a clear signal to me about how she intends to vote at the GE.
SW London / Surrey and out along the A3 and A303 could be very fertile ground for the LibDems. We already saw last year how Woking turned blue to yellow.
There could be some high profile political decapitations in this neck of the woods.
Tamworth is a striking result. It suggests that the path to an overall majority is there for Labour, however narrow and difficult.
Has to be said, in addition to being an absolute disaster for the Tories these are pretty underwhelming results for the Lib Dems. Third in Mid Beds and pretty much nowhere at all in Tamworth.
There may have been a tactical voting element in Tamworth (although it’s never a seat they’ve done well in) but they should have taken Mid Beds if they are to really challenge in the ‘blue wall.’
The Britain Elects map based on the Mid Beds swing is interesting.
Vote Labour in the Danelaw, and LD in Saxon England.
It's interesting: my Surrey lifelong tory's first question was to ask how the LibDems did. That's a clear signal to me about how she intends to vote at the GE.
SW London / Surrey and out along the A3 and A303 could be very fertile ground for the LibDems. We already saw last year how Woking turned blue to yellow.
There could be some high profile political decapitations in this neck of the woods.
The map based on Tamworth is less good for the LDs, and slightly better for the Tories:
🚨 *JUST FOR FUN ALARM* 🚨
How GB would vote if the Tamworth By-Election swing was repeated across the country:
Two great results for Labour overnight, especially in mid beds where the anti tory vote was split, it also vindicates Labour for insisting they could win this seat, when many including myself thought the Lib dems might be better placed to win the seat even from 3rd place. By-Elections are funny things though, as much as I would hope Labour keep this seat in the GE, as this would point to a demolition of the Tories,and no more than they deserve, the truth is this seat will almost certainly go back to the Tories, as will probably Tamworth.Only political anoraks were even aware that two by-elections were taking place, the rest of the population could care less. In six months time these results will mean nothing, I would love for Heathener to be right, and the drubbing the Tories so richly deserve happens, but there is still time for the might of the right wing press, GB news, Talk tv, etc etc, to fully turn their guns on Starmer and the labour party, I fear all is still to play for
This is both tory voters abandoning the party and voters choosing Labour. Elsewhere (see below) at the GE they will go with the LibDems.
What's so encouraging for Labour is that they're winning everywhere. Except outer London?
The interesting tip from the overnight thread is that Tory voters in posh villages were persuaded to vote LibDem instead.
Remember that it isn’t just how many votes Labour can secure, it’s how many voters the Tories can lose. Any Tory voter who refuses to vote Labour who can be persuaded to vote LD or not at all is still a gain for Labour as the winning post drops by one…
The Britain Elects map based on the Mid Beds swing is interesting.
Vote Labour in the Danelaw, and LD in Saxon England.
Yes, no shortage of seats where voting LibDem makes sense, despite a massive (assumed in that projection) nationwide increase in the Labour vote.
I appreciate that these maps are only a bit of fun, but even on current polls both IOW seats go red. Strikes me as a little unlikely, but maybe we have to recalibrate. Didn't the Greens do well last GE, and the LDs hold the Island at one time?
Two great results for Labour overnight, especially in mid beds where the anti tory vote was split, it also vindicates Labour for insisting they could win this seat, when many including myself thought the Lib dems might be better placed to win the seat even from 3rd place. By-Elections are funny things though, as much as I would hope Labour keep this seat in the GE, as this would point to a demolition of the Tories,and no more than they deserve, the truth is this seat will almost certainly go back to the Tories, as will probably Tamworth.Only political anoraks were even aware that two by-elections were taking place, the rest of the population could care less. In six months time these results will mean nothing, I would love for Heathener to be right, and the drubbing the Tories so richly deserve happens, but there is still time for the might of the right wing press, GB news, Talk tv, etc etc, to fully turn their guns on Starmer and the labour party, I fear all is still to play for
Tamworth might stay red. I would expect Mid Beds, Oswestry, Selby to return to the Tories. Hillingdon will probably go to Labour. Chesham and Tiverton are toss-ups.
One thing, ironically, that might hurt Labour in Tamworth is if Labour commit to building HS2, because it’s one of the seats affected by it.
Shame we couldn’t get the Tories into 3rd in mid Beds, but still very good result - to see a swing of that magnitude without one of the two parties informally standing back is very encouraging.
Mid Beds in the actual GE will be interesting. Labour should get some of those Lib Dem votes but some will go back Tory. By rights it’s a seat that should revert to type at a general but will it?
Tamworth along with Selby really shows how far the Tories have lost north of the Watford gap. I thought Tamworth might be a bit Uxbridgy, but it certainly wasn’t.
I guess it's easy to say with hindsight when you win but the 13/4 I got on Labour in mid-Beds on the eve of the by-election was incredible value. I love that kind of win.
There are always jitters before a vote and also disinformation, including expectation management. You need to keep your head and use it. Great way to make money.
Some thoughts: 1. The landslide is on. As @Heathener has been tipping 2. The election will be late - why go early to massive defeat? Use the shitty weather as advantage on the premise that your remaining meddlesome old ratbag voters use postal votes 3. In both seats the ReFUK / UKIP / Fox / Fascist vote was bigger than the Labour majority. The hardcore of scum really will vote to the right of the Tories. Cost Boris a stack of seats in 2019, will cost the Cons far more in 2025 4. LDs won’t be too disappointed with MidBeds. Doubling the vote as the Tory switch vote where Labour is a bridge too far means picking up a stack of southern seats come the GE 5. Whither the Tories? Brexit is not only done, it’s now a negative, culture wars not working, fuck your lungs not working. They are getting destroyed because the country isn’t working. You can’t hide that, you can’t lie about lived reality, you can’t blame someone else.
Barring some miraculous turnaround in the country feeling less broken or a black swan, the Tories are heading for a demolition at best, or ELE.
Mid Beds in the actual GE will be interesting. Labour should get some of those Lib Dem votes but some will go back Tory. By rights it’s a seat that should revert to type at a general but will it?
Yeah I don't think it's a racing certainty that Mid-Beds will go back to the Conservatives next year. Even on a Labour landslide it probably will but it's not definite.
Some thoughts: 1. The landslide is on. As @Heathener has been tipping 2. The election will be late - why go early to massive defeat? Use the shitty weather as advantage on the premise that your remaining meddlesome old ratbag voters use postal votes 3. In both seats the ReFUK / UKIP / Fox / Fascist vote was bigger than the Labour majority. The hardcore of scum really will vote to the right of the Tories. Cost Boris a stack of seats in 2019, will cost the Cons far more in 2025 4. LDs won’t be too disappointed with MidBeds. Doubling the vote as the Tory switch vote where Labour is a bridge too far means picking up a stack of southern seats come the GE 5. Whither the Tories? Brexit is not only done, it’s now a negative, culture wars not working, fuck your lungs not working. They are getting destroyed because the country isn’t working. You can’t hide that, you can’t lie about lived reality, you can’t blame someone else.
Barring some miraculous turnaround in the country feeling less broken or a black swan, the Tories are heading for a demolition at best, or ELE.
Some thoughts: 1. The landslide is on. As @Heathener has been tipping 2. The election will be late - why go early to massive defeat? Use the shitty weather as advantage on the premise that your remaining meddlesome old ratbag voters use postal votes 3. In both seats the ReFUK / UKIP / Fox / Fascist vote was bigger than the Labour majority. The hardcore of scum really will vote to the right of the Tories. Cost Boris a stack of seats in 2019, will cost the Cons far more in 2025 4. LDs won’t be too disappointed with MidBeds. Doubling the vote as the Tory switch vote where Labour is a bridge too far means picking up a stack of southern seats come the GE 5. Whither the Tories? Brexit is not only done, it’s now a negative, culture wars not working, fuck your lungs not working. They are getting destroyed because the country isn’t working. You can’t hide that, you can’t lie about lived reality, you can’t blame someone else.
Barring some miraculous turnaround in the country feeling less broken or a black swan, the Tories are heading for a demolition at best, or ELE.
I'll leave it there because I'll be (more) irritating if I continue but critics of Keir Starmer really ought to self-reflect. The turnaround he has achieved from the unelectable Jeremy Corbyn is remarkable.
Okay, so the Conservative Party and external events have played a massive part in that, but it's also down to Starmer pulling the party back to the centre ground and making them thoroughly electable.
Some thoughts: 1. The landslide is on. As @Heathener has been tipping 2. The election will be late - why go early to massive defeat? Use the shitty weather as advantage on the premise that your remaining meddlesome old ratbag voters use postal votes 3. In both seats the ReFUK / UKIP / Fox / Fascist vote was bigger than the Labour majority. The hardcore of scum really will vote to the right of the Tories. Cost Boris a stack of seats in 2019, will cost the Cons far more in 2025 4. LDs won’t be too disappointed with MidBeds. Doubling the vote as the Tory switch vote where Labour is a bridge too far means picking up a stack of southern seats come the GE 5. Whither the Tories? Brexit is not only done, it’s now a negative, culture wars not working, fuck your lungs not working. They are getting destroyed because the country isn’t working. You can’t hide that, you can’t lie about lived reality, you can’t blame someone else.
Barring some miraculous turnaround in the country feeling less broken or a black swan, the Tories are heading for a demolition at best, or ELE.
Some thoughts: 1. The landslide is on. As @Heathener has been tipping 2. The election will be late - why go early to massive defeat? Use the shitty weather as advantage on the premise that your remaining meddlesome old ratbag voters use postal votes 3. In both seats the ReFUK / UKIP / Fox / Fascist vote was bigger than the Labour majority. The hardcore of scum really will vote to the right of the Tories. Cost Boris a stack of seats in 2019, will cost the Cons far more in 2025 4. LDs won’t be too disappointed with MidBeds. Doubling the vote as the Tory switch vote where Labour is a bridge too far means picking up a stack of southern seats come the GE 5. Whither the Tories? Brexit is not only done, it’s now a negative, culture wars not working, fuck your lungs not working. They are getting destroyed because the country isn’t working. You can’t hide that, you can’t lie about lived reality, you can’t blame someone else.
Barring some miraculous turnaround in the country feeling less broken or a black swan, the Tories are heading for a demolition at best, or ELE.
A new dawn has broken, has it not?
Two swallows don't make a summer, there is still 2/5 available on Labour winning an overall majority if you are that convinced, I think the worrying aspect for the Tories is the Reform vote, there is a possibility they are hemorrhaging votes on both flanks
Two great results for Labour overnight, especially in mid beds where the anti tory vote was split, it also vindicates Labour for insisting they could win this seat, when many including myself thought the Lib dems might be better placed to win the seat even from 3rd place. By-Elections are funny things though, as much as I would hope Labour keep this seat in the GE, as this would point to a demolition of the Tories,and no more than they deserve, the truth is this seat will almost certainly go back to the Tories, as will probably Tamworth.Only political anoraks were even aware that two by-elections were taking place, the rest of the population could care less. In six months time these results will mean nothing, I would love for Heathener to be right, and the drubbing the Tories so richly deserve happens, but there is still time for the might of the right wing press, GB news, Talk tv, etc etc, to fully turn their guns on Starmer and the labour party, I fear all is still to play for
Tamworth might stay red. I would expect Mid Beds, Oswestry, Selby to return to the Tories. Hillingdon will probably go to Labour. Chesham and Tiverton are toss-ups.
One thing, ironically, that might hurt Labour in Tamworth is if Labour commit to building HS2, because it’s one of the seats affected by it.
Cancelling HS2, meaning all the disruption was for nothing, and Sunak's dire performance a couple of weeks ago might have tipped it over the edge in Tamworth.
Some thoughts: 1. The landslide is on. As @Heathener has been tipping 2. The election will be late - why go early to massive defeat? Use the shitty weather as advantage on the premise that your remaining meddlesome old ratbag voters use postal votes 3. In both seats the ReFUK / UKIP / Fox / Fascist vote was bigger than the Labour majority. The hardcore of scum really will vote to the right of the Tories. Cost Boris a stack of seats in 2019, will cost the Cons far more in 2025 4. LDs won’t be too disappointed with MidBeds. Doubling the vote as the Tory switch vote where Labour is a bridge too far means picking up a stack of southern seats come the GE 5. Whither the Tories? Brexit is not only done, it’s now a negative, culture wars not working, fuck your lungs not working. They are getting destroyed because the country isn’t working. You can’t hide that, you can’t lie about lived reality, you can’t blame someone else.
Barring some miraculous turnaround in the country feeling less broken or a black swan, the Tories are heading for a demolition at best, or ELE.
A new dawn has broken, has it not?
Fuck! How the hell did the Tories break that?
Asian Dawn? I read about them in Time magazine
If Sunak bans them, will that make people vote Tory again?
Could be worse. The GOP are literally shouting and swearing at each other. A majority in Congress but unable to agree on just how mentalist they should be.
After yesterday we will see the Tories shouting and swearing at each other. The Lee Anderson Fuck Off wing will want Boris back or at least the pretence that Tories care about the north. The John Redwood wing will want a tax on foreigners living abroad. The Braverman - Patel wing will want asylum-seekers torn apart by specially trained Bully XL dogs in the town square
Some thoughts: 1. The landslide is on. As @Heathener has been tipping 2. The election will be late - why go early to massive defeat? Use the shitty weather as advantage on the premise that your remaining meddlesome old ratbag voters use postal votes 3. In both seats the ReFUK / UKIP / Fox / Fascist vote was bigger than the Labour majority. The hardcore of scum really will vote to the right of the Tories. Cost Boris a stack of seats in 2019, will cost the Cons far more in 2025 4. LDs won’t be too disappointed with MidBeds. Doubling the vote as the Tory switch vote where Labour is a bridge too far means picking up a stack of southern seats come the GE 5. Whither the Tories? Brexit is not only done, it’s now a negative, culture wars not working, fuck your lungs not working. They are getting destroyed because the country isn’t working. You can’t hide that, you can’t lie about lived reality, you can’t blame someone else.
Barring some miraculous turnaround in the country feeling less broken or a black swan, the Tories are heading for a demolition at best, or ELE.
A new dawn has broken, has it not?
Two swallows don't make a summer, there is still 2/5 available on Labour winning an overall majority if you are that convinced, I think the worrying aspect for the Tories is the Reform vote, there is a possibility they are hemorrhaging votes on both flanks
Two swallows? There has been more swallowing than for a step-mom on Pornhub.
Two great results for Labour overnight, especially in mid beds where the anti tory vote was split, it also vindicates Labour for insisting they could win this seat, when many including myself thought the Lib dems might be better placed to win the seat even from 3rd place. By-Elections are funny things though, as much as I would hope Labour keep this seat in the GE, as this would point to a demolition of the Tories,and no more than they deserve, the truth is this seat will almost certainly go back to the Tories, as will probably Tamworth.Only political anoraks were even aware that two by-elections were taking place, the rest of the population could care less. In six months time these results will mean nothing, I would love for Heathener to be right, and the drubbing the Tories so richly deserve happens, but there is still time for the might of the right wing press, GB news, Talk tv, etc etc, to fully turn their guns on Starmer and the labour party, I fear all is still to play for
Tamworth might stay red. I would expect Mid Beds, Oswestry, Selby to return to the Tories. Hillingdon will probably go to Labour. Chesham and Tiverton are toss-ups.
One thing, ironically, that might hurt Labour in Tamworth is if Labour commit to building HS2, because it’s one of the seats affected by it.
Cancelling HS2, meaning all the disruption was for nothing, and Sunak's dire performance a couple of weeks ago might have tipped it over the edge in Tamworth.
What's the point?
Well, that’s where it gets really confusing. Because actually the stretch past Tamworth hasn’t been cancelled but the reporting means most locals probably think it has been.
I'll leave it there because I'll be (more) irritating if I continue but critics of Keir Starmer really ought to self-reflect. The turnaround he has achieved from the unelectable Jeremy Corbyn is remarkable.
Okay, so the Conservative Party and external events have played a massive part in that, but it's also down to Starmer pulling the party back to the centre ground and making them thoroughly electable.
Labour are hungry for power. You can see it.
Voters aren’t hungry for Labour, though; we just want rid of the current lot.
Some thoughts: 1. The landslide is on. As @Heathener has been tipping 2. The election will be late - why go early to massive defeat? Use the shitty weather as advantage on the premise that your remaining meddlesome old ratbag voters use postal votes 3. In both seats the ReFUK / UKIP / Fox / Fascist vote was bigger than the Labour majority. The hardcore of scum really will vote to the right of the Tories. Cost Boris a stack of seats in 2019, will cost the Cons far more in 2025 4. LDs won’t be too disappointed with MidBeds. Doubling the vote as the Tory switch vote where Labour is a bridge too far means picking up a stack of southern seats come the GE 5. Whither the Tories? Brexit is not only done, it’s now a negative, culture wars not working, fuck your lungs not working. They are getting destroyed because the country isn’t working. You can’t hide that, you can’t lie about lived reality, you can’t blame someone else.
Barring some miraculous turnaround in the country feeling less broken or a black swan, the Tories are heading for a demolition at best, or ELE.
Two great results for Labour overnight, especially in mid beds where the anti tory vote was split, it also vindicates Labour for insisting they could win this seat, when many including myself thought the Lib dems might be better placed to win the seat even from 3rd place. By-Elections are funny things though, as much as I would hope Labour keep this seat in the GE, as this would point to a demolition of the Tories,and no more than they deserve, the truth is this seat will almost certainly go back to the Tories, as will probably Tamworth.Only political anoraks were even aware that two by-elections were taking place, the rest of the population could care less. In six months time these results will mean nothing, I would love for Heathener to be right, and the drubbing the Tories so richly deserve happens, but there is still time for the might of the right wing press, GB news, Talk tv, etc etc, to fully turn their guns on Starmer and the labour party, I fear all is still to play for
Tamworth might stay red. I would expect Mid Beds, Oswestry, Selby to return to the Tories. Hillingdon will probably go to Labour. Chesham and Tiverton are toss-ups.
One thing, ironically, that might hurt Labour in Tamworth is if Labour commit to building HS2, because it’s one of the seats affected by it.
Cancelling HS2, meaning all the disruption was for nothing, and Sunak's dire performance a couple of weeks ago might have tipped it over the edge in Tamworth.
What's the point?
Well, that’s where it gets really confusing. Because actually the stretch past Tamworth hasn’t been cancelled but the reporting means most locals probably think it has been.
Brum to Crewe has probably been cancelled, or has Rishi just forgotten about that bit
F1: Because of sprint stupidity, qualifying is today at 10pm.
1-2am tonight for me, and tomorrow night will be even worse - if I can be bothered to stagger home from the pub to watch it after the rugby. The single worst time zone of the season, which is a shame because it’s often a good race here.
In some ways you would also compare them to 87-92, although there (for example in Richmond) the splits worked in the Tories’ favour.
But you could also compare them to 2005-10. We know how that played out.
I’ve always been sceptical about Starmer winning an overall majority because of the enormous number of seats he needs to gain. Swings like this mean it’s plausible. However, I still wouldn’t be betting on a majority of over 30.
Some thoughts: 1. The landslide is on. As @Heathener has been tipping 2. The election will be late - why go early to massive defeat? Use the shitty weather as advantage on the premise that your remaining meddlesome old ratbag voters use postal votes 3. In both seats the ReFUK / UKIP / Fox / Fascist vote was bigger than the Labour majority. The hardcore of scum really will vote to the right of the Tories. Cost Boris a stack of seats in 2019, will cost the Cons far more in 2025 4. LDs won’t be too disappointed with MidBeds. Doubling the vote as the Tory switch vote where Labour is a bridge too far means picking up a stack of southern seats come the GE 5. Whither the Tories? Brexit is not only done, it’s now a negative, culture wars not working, fuck your lungs not working. They are getting destroyed because the country isn’t working. You can’t hide that, you can’t lie about lived reality, you can’t blame someone else.
Barring some miraculous turnaround in the country feeling less broken or a black swan, the Tories are heading for a demolition at best, or ELE.
A new dawn has broken, has it not?
Fuck! How the hell did the Tories break that?
Asian Dawn? I read about them in Time magazine
If Sunak bans them, will that make people vote Tory again?
Could be worse. The GOP are literally shouting and swearing at each other. A majority in Congress but unable to agree on just how mentalist they should be.
After yesterday we will see the Tories shouting and swearing at each other. The Lee Anderson Fuck Off wing will want Boris back or at least the pretence that Tories care about the north. The John Redwood wing will want a tax on foreigners living abroad. The Braverman - Patel wing will want asylum-seekers torn apart by specially trained Bully XL dogs in the town square
A “tax on foreigners living abroad” offers a potentially huge tax base; I’ve travelled widely and there are tons of them wherever you go….
Some thoughts: 1. The landslide is on. As @Heathener has been tipping 2. The election will be late - why go early to massive defeat? Use the shitty weather as advantage on the premise that your remaining meddlesome old ratbag voters use postal votes 3. In both seats the ReFUK / UKIP / Fox / Fascist vote was bigger than the Labour majority. The hardcore of scum really will vote to the right of the Tories. Cost Boris a stack of seats in 2019, will cost the Cons far more in 2025 4. LDs won’t be too disappointed with MidBeds. Doubling the vote as the Tory switch vote where Labour is a bridge too far means picking up a stack of southern seats come the GE 5. Whither the Tories? Brexit is not only done, it’s now a negative, culture wars not working, fuck your lungs not working. They are getting destroyed because the country isn’t working. You can’t hide that, you can’t lie about lived reality, you can’t blame someone else.
Barring some miraculous turnaround in the country feeling less broken or a black swan, the Tories are heading for a demolition at best, or ELE.
A new dawn has broken, has it not?
Fuck! How the hell did the Tories break that?
Asian Dawn? I read about them in Time magazine
If Sunak bans them, will that make people vote Tory again?
Could be worse. The GOP are literally shouting and swearing at each other. A majority in Congress but unable to agree on just how mentalist they should be.
After yesterday we will see the Tories shouting and swearing at each other. The Lee Anderson Fuck Off wing will want Boris back or at least the pretence that Tories care about the north. The John Redwood wing will want a tax on foreigners living abroad. The Braverman - Patel wing will want asylum-seekers torn apart by specially trained Bully XL dogs in the town square
A “tax on foreigners living abroad” offers a potentially huge tax base; I’ve travelled widely and there are tons of them wherever you go….
There’s like 8,000,000,000 of them!
Although how you get them to actually pay the tax, is another question.
Some thoughts: 1. The landslide is on. As @Heathener has been tipping 2. The election will be late - why go early to massive defeat? Use the shitty weather as advantage on the premise that your remaining meddlesome old ratbag voters use postal votes 3. In both seats the ReFUK / UKIP / Fox / Fascist vote was bigger than the Labour majority. The hardcore of scum really will vote to the right of the Tories. Cost Boris a stack of seats in 2019, will cost the Cons far more in 2025 4. LDs won’t be too disappointed with MidBeds. Doubling the vote as the Tory switch vote where Labour is a bridge too far means picking up a stack of southern seats come the GE 5. Whither the Tories? Brexit is not only done, it’s now a negative, culture wars not working, fuck your lungs not working. They are getting destroyed because the country isn’t working. You can’t hide that, you can’t lie about lived reality, you can’t blame someone else.
Barring some miraculous turnaround in the country feeling less broken or a black swan, the Tories are heading for a demolition at best, or ELE.
A new dawn has broken, has it not?
Fuck! How the hell did the Tories break that?
Asian Dawn? I read about them in Time magazine
If Sunak bans them, will that make people vote Tory again?
Could be worse. The GOP are literally shouting and swearing at each other. A majority in Congress but unable to agree on just how mentalist they should be.
After yesterday we will see the Tories shouting and swearing at each other. The Lee Anderson Fuck Off wing will want Boris back or at least the pretence that Tories care about the north. The John Redwood wing will want a tax on foreigners living abroad. The Braverman - Patel wing will want asylum-seekers torn apart by specially trained Bully XL dogs in the town square
A “tax on foreigners living abroad” offers a potentially huge tax base; I’ve travelled widely and there are tons of them wherever you go….
There would be a rebate to any country that still had fealty to the English crown (Australia etc) so Johnny Foreigner would be encouraged to make Charles king quickly or pay the price.
In some ways you would also compare them to 87-92, although there (for example in Richmond) the splits worked in the Tories’ favour.
But you could also compare them to 2005-10. We know how that played out.
I’ve always been sceptical about Starmer winning an overall majority because of the enormous number of seats he needs to gain. Swings like this mean it’s plausible. However, I still wouldn’t be betting on a majority of over 30.
I'm not betting as Time Value of Money means that any value in long-term bets is currently destroyed anyway unless it's a major error on the market.
But I certainly wouldn't rule out a Labour landslide. It's not nailed on yet, however much Heathener wishcasts, but it's definitely within the realms of possibility.
Some thoughts: 1. The landslide is on. As @Heathener has been tipping 2. The election will be late - why go early to massive defeat? Use the shitty weather as advantage on the premise that your remaining meddlesome old ratbag voters use postal votes 3. In both seats the ReFUK / UKIP / Fox / Fascist vote was bigger than the Labour majority. The hardcore of scum really will vote to the right of the Tories. Cost Boris a stack of seats in 2019, will cost the Cons far more in 2025 4. LDs won’t be too disappointed with MidBeds. Doubling the vote as the Tory switch vote where Labour is a bridge too far means picking up a stack of southern seats come the GE 5. Whither the Tories? Brexit is not only done, it’s now a negative, culture wars not working, fuck your lungs not working. They are getting destroyed because the country isn’t working. You can’t hide that, you can’t lie about lived reality, you can’t blame someone else.
Barring some miraculous turnaround in the country feeling less broken or a black swan, the Tories are heading for a demolition at best, or ELE.
A new dawn has broken, has it not?
Fuck! How the hell did the Tories break that?
Asian Dawn? I read about them in Time magazine
If Sunak bans them, will that make people vote Tory again?
Could be worse. The GOP are literally shouting and swearing at each other. A majority in Congress but unable to agree on just how mentalist they should be.
After yesterday we will see the Tories shouting and swearing at each other. The Lee Anderson Fuck Off wing will want Boris back or at least the pretence that Tories care about the north. The John Redwood wing will want a tax on foreigners living abroad. The Braverman - Patel wing will want asylum-seekers torn apart by specially trained Bully XL dogs in the town square
A “tax on foreigners living abroad” offers a potentially huge tax base; I’ve travelled widely and there are tons of them wherever you go….
There’s like 8,000,000,000 of them!
Although how you get them to actually pay the tax, is another question.
Ukraine claiming 1,380 Russian troops killed yesterday, along with 55 tanks and 120 APVs.
The highest figures I can remember seeing for some time. Whilst I know the figures won't be exact and are probably overblown, I reckon you can depend on the trend.
After my disastrous RWC predictions from last weekend (0/4 shakes head in shame...) my predictions for the semi-finals.
New Zealand v Argentina. Despite Argentina's steady improvement throughout the tournament they wont have the power to beat the All Blacks. They might stay in the fight for up to 60 minutes but expect NZ to go up a gear in the last 20 minutes and close out the game. New Zealand by +20.
South Africa v England. There has been some mind games this week with South Africa claiming England will be favoutites. This will be a brutal game and I expect plenty of yellows and maybe a red or two. England will try to control the kicking game, but forget that it was invented in South Africa. I cant see England being able to control South Africa's surging power. South Africa by +10.
In some ways I am happy that Wales were knocked out last weekend, because there is no way we could challenge NZ.
Let’s all spare a thought for @bigjohnowls on this terrible morning
As far as BJO fans are concerned last night's results were two Tory holds.
Back in 97 I had a good friend who was so left-wing he made Dennis Skinner seem like Thatcher. I saw him on the Saturday morning after the '97 election, and congratulated him on a Labour win.
"We didn't win," he said grumpily. "The Tories did."
These are very encouraging results to wake up to, better than I expected. For now I maintain my expectation thay Labour wins a majority of around 30, but I think the risks for them are now tilted to the upside. What does Sunak try next?
These are very encouraging results to wake up to, better than I expected. For now I maintain my expectation thay Labour wins a majority of around 30, but I think the risks for them are now tilted to the upside. What does Sunak try next?
Six months or so ago, I said that Labour will get between where Boris got - ~80 seat majority - to a stonking landslide. I've seen no reason to change that view; in fact, things have got worse for the Tories.
Yes, I know that involves a massive and (I think) unprecedented shift from Conservatives to Labour, much more than Blair got in 97. And I know Starmer's no Blair. But Sunak's no Major, either.
So it appears that Selby was the byelection to notice, not Uxbridge. Both results clearly in line with Selby.
Yep. I do still fear outer London may be Labour's GE Achilles heel. Saddiq Khan has damaged Labour.
Cameron was right that the country is not Twitter, not that the media notices.
That can be extended though, the country is not London either, not that the media notices.
If you want to run a country that suits the North, or anywhere outside London, it takes more than taking a picture of you pretending to fill up a tank of petrol. It takes more than saying you are on the side of motorists, while increasing taxes on the cars of the future and failing to invest in roads, charging networks, or any other general infrastructure.
These are very encouraging results to wake up to, better than I expected. For now I maintain my expectation thay Labour wins a majority of around 30, but I think the risks for them are now tilted to the upside. What does Sunak try next?
The Running Man. Asylum Seekers are met off their dinghies by an army of people’s volunteers with Bully XLs. If they escape the stalkers then a fabulous life in beautiful Rwanda awaits. Presented by Ant and Dec.
In some ways you would also compare them to 87-92, although there (for example in Richmond) the splits worked in the Tories’ favour.
But you could also compare them to 2005-10. We know how that played out.
I’ve always been sceptical about Starmer winning an overall majority because of the enormous number of seats he needs to gain. Swings like this mean it’s plausible. However, I still wouldn’t be betting on a majority of over 30.
however much Heathener wishcasts, but it's definitely within the realms of possibility.
I don't think it is wishcasting. I'm going on the current facts. I bet regardless of preference, often making money on Republicans and Conservatives. And I did well financially from the Brexit vote.
We need to look at the present facts especially the opinion polls. They're not wrong. More anecdotally I've not heard such anger against a prevailing party since 1997, and it's even more pronounced this time because the economic climate is so much worse (it was good in '97).
These are very encouraging results to wake up to, better than I expected. For now I maintain my expectation thay Labour wins a majority of around 30, but I think the risks for them are now tilted to the upside. What does Sunak try next?
Six months or so ago, I said that Labour will get between where Boris got - ~80 seat majority - to a stonking landslide. I've seen no reason to change that view; in fact, things have got worse for the Tories.
Yes, I know that involves a massive and (I think) unprecedented shift from Conservatives to Labour, much more than Blair got in 97. And I know Starmer's no Blair. But Sunak's no Major, either.
Indeed.
And if we're looking at precedence, Labour have just overturned the biggest majority in by-election history.
There are plenty of signs if we're prepared to read and believe them.
Let’s all spare a thought for @bigjohnowls on this terrible morning
As far as BJO fans are concerned last night's results were two Tory holds.
Back in 97 I had a good friend who was so left-wing he made Dennis Skinner seem like Thatcher. I saw him on the Saturday morning after the '97 election, and congratulated him on a Labour win.
"We didn't win," he said grumpily. "The Tories did."
TBF, Thatcher said much the same thing.
Although how he would have felt about agreeing with Thatcher on something...
Leaving aside the “Blue Wall” monicker for a moment, Mid Beds is Shire Tories rather than Home Counties (Surrey etc), Educated Ex-Londoners (Oxfordshire/Cambridgeshire) or The Glorious Liberal South West.
And that should terrify the Conservatives. If even the Shire Tories seats are going Labour with massive swings, nowhere is safe - except maybe East Coast UKIPalonia.
The Worcester city/council by-elections are interesting - a colossal Green win. Worcester’s Tories have been following the “WaR on MOtoRiSTs” line for years, as recently adopted by Sunak. They’re a reactionary, aggressive bunch very much in line with the current national party. And the Greens have slaughtered them.
Some thoughts: 1. The landslide is on. As @Heathener has been tipping 2. The election will be late - why go early to massive defeat? Use the shitty weather as advantage on the premise that your remaining meddlesome old ratbag voters use postal votes 3. In both seats the ReFUK / UKIP / Fox / Fascist vote was bigger than the Labour majority. The hardcore of scum really will vote to the right of the Tories. Cost Boris a stack of seats in 2019, will cost the Cons far more in 2025 4. LDs won’t be too disappointed with MidBeds. Doubling the vote as the Tory switch vote where Labour is a bridge too far means picking up a stack of southern seats come the GE 5. Whither the Tories? Brexit is not only done, it’s now a negative, culture wars not working, fuck your lungs not working. They are getting destroyed because the country isn’t working. You can’t hide that, you can’t lie about lived reality, you can’t blame someone else.
Barring some miraculous turnaround in the country feeling less broken or a black swan, the Tories are heading for a demolition at best, or ELE.
A new dawn has broken, has it not?
Fuck! How the hell did the Tories break that?
Asian Dawn? I read about them in Time magazine
If Sunak bans them, will that make people vote Tory again?
Could be worse. The GOP are literally shouting and swearing at each other. A majority in Congress but unable to agree on just how mentalist they should be.
After yesterday we will see the Tories shouting and swearing at each other. The Lee Anderson Fuck Off wing will want Boris back or at least the pretence that Tories care about the north. The John Redwood wing will want a tax on foreigners living abroad. The Braverman - Patel wing will want asylum-seekers torn apart by specially trained Bully XL dogs in the town square
A “tax on foreigners living abroad” offers a potentially huge tax base; I’ve travelled widely and there are tons of them wherever you go….
There’s like 8,000,000,000 of them!
Although how you get them to actually pay the tax, is another question.
In some ways you would also compare them to 87-92, although there (for example in Richmond) the splits worked in the Tories’ favour.
But you could also compare them to 2005-10. We know how that played out.
I’ve always been sceptical about Starmer winning an overall majority because of the enormous number of seats he needs to gain. Swings like this mean it’s plausible. However, I still wouldn’t be betting on a majority of over 30.
however much Heathener wishcasts, but it's definitely within the realms of possibility.
I don't think it is wishcasting. I'm going on the current facts. I bet regardless of preference, often making money on Republicans and Conservatives. And I did well financially from the Brexit vote.
We need to look at the present facts especially the opinion polls. They're not wrong. More anecdotally I've not heard such anger against a prevailing party since 1997, and it's even more pronounced this time because the economic climate is so much worse (it was good in '97).
I think the difference in 1997 was people were fed up with Tory priorities rather than management per se (though the sleaze and black Wednesday did come into it somewhat).
This time people are fed up of both. Just thoroughly fed up with the party and its myriad failings. I think more so than 1997.
These are very encouraging results to wake up to, better than I expected. For now I maintain my expectation thay Labour wins a majority of around 30, but I think the risks for them are now tilted to the upside. What does Sunak try next?
The Running Man. Asylum Seekers are met off their dinghies by an army of people’s volunteers with Bully XLs. If they escape the stalkers then a fabulous life in beautiful Rwanda awaits. Presented by Ant and Dec.
And with Sunak's luck, the people's volunteers lose control of the dogs and they massacre a coachload full of disabled children on a day trip to the seaside. And it then turns out the leashes were defective and the contract for supplying them had been awarded to a close personal friend of Suella Braverman in return for a bribe.
In some ways you would also compare them to 87-92, although there (for example in Richmond) the splits worked in the Tories’ favour.
But you could also compare them to 2005-10. We know how that played out.
I’ve always been sceptical about Starmer winning an overall majority because of the enormous number of seats he needs to gain. Swings like this mean it’s plausible. However, I still wouldn’t be betting on a majority of over 30.
however much Heathener wishcasts, but it's definitely within the realms of possibility.
I don't think it is wishcasting. I'm going on the current facts. I bet regardless of preference, often making money on Republicans and Conservatives. And I did well financially from the Brexit vote.
We need to look at the present facts especially the opinion polls. They're not wrong. More anecdotally I've not heard such anger against a prevailing party since 1997, and it's even more pronounced this time because the economic climate is so much worse (it was good in '97).
I think the difference in 1997 was people were fed up with Tory priorities rather than management per se (though the sleaze and black Wednesday did come into it somewhat).
This time people are fed up of both. Just thoroughly fed up with the party and its myriad failings. I think more so than 1997.
But again - Starmer is no Blair and he starts from a lot further back.
I can’t remember where I read it (think it was the BBC’s live reporting) but I’ve seen people suggest that the Tory party need to focus on getting the reform voters.
If you are the Tory party and wish to pursue that plan, go ahead. It will result in even more centralist Tory voters sitting the next election out.
Some thoughts: 1. The landslide is on. As @Heathener has been tipping 2. The election will be late - why go early to massive defeat? Use the shitty weather as advantage on the premise that your remaining meddlesome old ratbag voters use postal votes 3. In both seats the ReFUK / UKIP / Fox / Fascist vote was bigger than the Labour majority. The hardcore of scum really will vote to the right of the Tories. Cost Boris a stack of seats in 2019, will cost the Cons far more in 2025 4. LDs won’t be too disappointed with MidBeds. Doubling the vote as the Tory switch vote where Labour is a bridge too far means picking up a stack of southern seats come the GE 5. Whither the Tories? Brexit is not only done, it’s now a negative, culture wars not working, fuck your lungs not working. They are getting destroyed because the country isn’t working. You can’t hide that, you can’t lie about lived reality, you can’t blame someone else.
Barring some miraculous turnaround in the country feeling less broken or a black swan, the Tories are heading for a demolition at best, or ELE.
A new dawn has broken, has it not?
Two swallows don't make a summer, there is still 2/5 available on Labour winning an overall majority if you are that convinced, I think the worrying aspect for the Tories is the Reform vote, there is a possibility they are hemorrhaging votes on both flanks
Reform could cost the Tories twenty or so seats at the GE.
I (hesitantly) predicted Labour wins in both seats, and Lab/Con/LD as the order in MidBeds. So, woo!
After all the speculation that a split between Lab and LD would let the Tories win in MidBeds, I note that it was the split right that saw Labour win. The Reform UK vote was bigger than Labour’s majority in both seats. Indeed, in Tamworth, Reform UK + Britain First + UKIP was nearly 10%!!
I can’t remember where I read it (think it was the BBC’s live reporting) but I’ve seen people suggest that the Tory party need to focus on getting the reform voters.
If you are the Tory party and wish to pursue that plan, go ahead. It will result in even more centralist Tory voters sitting the next election out.
Or voting Labour.
I'm currently tempted to vote Lib Dem, but if the Tories go "Reform" then I'll vote Labour instead.
Just as anyone rational should have voted Tory when Labour went Corbyn.
In some ways you would also compare them to 87-92, although there (for example in Richmond) the splits worked in the Tories’ favour.
But you could also compare them to 2005-10. We know how that played out.
I’ve always been sceptical about Starmer winning an overall majority because of the enormous number of seats he needs to gain. Swings like this mean it’s plausible. However, I still wouldn’t be betting on a majority of over 30.
however much Heathener wishcasts, but it's definitely within the realms of possibility.
I don't think it is wishcasting. I'm going on the current facts. I bet regardless of preference, often making money on Republicans and Conservatives. And I did well financially from the Brexit vote.
We need to look at the present facts especially the opinion polls. They're not wrong. More anecdotally I've not heard such anger against a prevailing party since 1997, and it's even more pronounced this time because the economic climate is so much worse (it was good in '97).
I think the difference in 1997 was people were fed up with Tory priorities rather than management per se (though the sleaze and black Wednesday did come into it somewhat).
This time people are fed up of both. Just thoroughly fed up with the party and its myriad failings. I think more so than 1997.
But again - Starmer is no Blair and he starts from a lot further back.
This starting from further back is all a bit silly.
People were more tribal and loyal back then. The Tory core vote was much higher and they were clearer and more consistent in what they stood for. Since 2010 they have been a messy coalition promising all kinds of different things, few of which they have delivered. And the economy especially household finances are a mess.
If they are starting from further back they are doing so in a turbo powered era.
I can’t remember where I read it (think it was the BBC’s live reporting) but I’ve seen people suggest that the Tory party need to focus on getting the reform voters.
If you are the Tory party and wish to pursue that plan, go ahead. It will result in even more centralist Tory voters sitting the next election out.
Or voting Labour.
I'm currently tempted to vote Lib Dem, but if the Tories go "Reform" then I'll vote Labour instead.
Just as anyone rational should have voted Tory when Labour went Corbyn.
Wow.
Well my lifelong tory-voting friend here in Surrey is refusing to vote for them and I infer that she will vote LibDem.
I (hesitantly) predicted Labour wins in both seats, and Lab/Con/LD as the order in MidBeds. So, woo!
After all the speculation that a split between Lab and LD would let the Tories win in MidBeds, I note that it was the split right that saw Labour win. The Reform UK vote was bigger than Labour’s majority in both seats. Indeed, in Tamworth, Reform UK + Britain First + UKIP was nearly 10%!!
There's no such things as splits in votes. Said the same about Lab and LD, same is true about Tory and Reform or its ilk.
Lab != Lib Dem Tory != Reform
If they were the same, they'd be getting the same party. There's no way to keep hold of your existing vote and gain another parties vote, if you go for another parties voters you might just end up losing your own . . . while still not being trusted by the other parties voters.
In some ways you would also compare them to 87-92, although there (for example in Richmond) the splits worked in the Tories’ favour.
But you could also compare them to 2005-10. We know how that played out.
I’ve always been sceptical about Starmer winning an overall majority because of the enormous number of seats he needs to gain. Swings like this mean it’s plausible. However, I still wouldn’t be betting on a majority of over 30.
however much Heathener wishcasts, but it's definitely within the realms of possibility.
I don't think it is wishcasting. I'm going on the current facts. I bet regardless of preference, often making money on Republicans and Conservatives. And I did well financially from the Brexit vote.
We need to look at the present facts especially the opinion polls. They're not wrong. More anecdotally I've not heard such anger against a prevailing party since 1997, and it's even more pronounced this time because the economic climate is so much worse (it was good in '97).
I think the difference in 1997 was people were fed up with Tory priorities rather than management per se (though the sleaze and black Wednesday did come into it somewhat).
This time people are fed up of both. Just thoroughly fed up with the party and its myriad failings. I think more so than 1997.
But again - Starmer is no Blair and he starts from a lot further back.
But the circumstances are FAR worse than 1997. And at the end of the day that counts for way more than personalities.
'It's the economy, stupid.'
It has been a godawful few years. Not all of that is the Conservatives' fault but some of it is.
I'll leave it there because I'll be (more) irritating if I continue but critics of Keir Starmer really ought to self-reflect. The turnaround he has achieved from the unelectable Jeremy Corbyn is remarkable.
Okay, so the Conservative Party and external events have played a massive part in that, but it's also down to Starmer pulling the party back to the centre ground and making them thoroughly electable.
Labour are hungry for power. You can see it.
Voters aren’t hungry for Labour, though; we just want rid of the current lot.
I think that's right, but voters are starting to realise with FPTP, voting Labour is the only sure way of getting rid of this lot
I'll leave it there because I'll be (more) irritating if I continue but critics of Keir Starmer really ought to self-reflect. The turnaround he has achieved from the unelectable Jeremy Corbyn is remarkable.
Okay, so the Conservative Party and external events have played a massive part in that, but it's also down to Starmer pulling the party back to the centre ground and making them thoroughly electable.
Labour are hungry for power. You can see it.
Voters aren’t hungry for Labour, though; we just want rid of the current lot.
I think that's right, but voters are starting to realise with FPTP, voting Labour is the only sure way of getting rid of this lot
All true. The desire to get rid of the current lot is also much greater. Their comms were dreadful, but Major’s government was so much more competent.
There is the factor here of both constituencies having MP's who left in dubious circumstances.
It is difficult to avoid the wider conclusion though that the tories have given up, have no idea what they are doing in government, have run out of ideas, and are relying on opportunistic political gimmicks, often unwise and poorly judged, wasting vast amounts of public money in the process. Their position is unstable, not based on on any success in governance, but on a specific mandate relating to Brexit, which they have been only partially successful in delivering, and people have now lost interest in. There is nothing left except to just have an election, which they will keep putting off, but it seems more likely than not that their position will get worse in the meantime.
I (hesitantly) predicted Labour wins in both seats, and Lab/Con/LD as the order in MidBeds. So, woo!
After all the speculation that a split between Lab and LD would let the Tories win in MidBeds, I note that it was the split right that saw Labour win. The Reform UK vote was bigger than Labour’s majority in both seats. Indeed, in Tamworth, Reform UK + Britain First + UKIP was nearly 10%!!
Yep - but those Reform UK + Britain First + UKIP won't vote for even the Tory party - the idea that going even further right will result in them winning the seat is a bit insane.
In some ways you would also compare them to 87-92, although there (for example in Richmond) the splits worked in the Tories’ favour.
But you could also compare them to 2005-10. We know how that played out.
I’ve always been sceptical about Starmer winning an overall majority because of the enormous number of seats he needs to gain. Swings like this mean it’s plausible. However, I still wouldn’t be betting on a majority of over 30.
however much Heathener wishcasts, but it's definitely within the realms of possibility.
I don't think it is wishcasting. I'm going on the current facts. I bet regardless of preference, often making money on Republicans and Conservatives. And I did well financially from the Brexit vote.
We need to look at the present facts especially the opinion polls. They're not wrong. More anecdotally I've not heard such anger against a prevailing party since 1997, and it's even more pronounced this time because the economic climate is so much worse (it was good in '97).
I think the difference in 1997 was people were fed up with Tory priorities rather than management per se (though the sleaze and black Wednesday did come into it somewhat).
This time people are fed up of both. Just thoroughly fed up with the party and its myriad failings. I think more so than 1997.
But again - Starmer is no Blair and he starts from a lot further back.
This starting from further back is all a bit silly.
People were more tribal and loyal back then. The Tory core vote was much higher and they were clearer and more consistent in what they stood for. Since 2010 they have been a messy coalition promising all kinds of different things, few of which they have delivered. And the economy especially household finances are a mess.
If they are starting from further back they are doing so in a turbo powered era.
I suspect it used to matter more, when elections really were about the ground war. Boots/sandals/brogues in the ground. Face to face canvassing and leafletting. Then campaigns were limited in how many seats they could make a push in.
So much more of it is done by electronic and social media these days and that scales up much more easily.
(It has the downside of a generation of politicians, especially on the right, who can't talk to normal people because they've outsourced that bit of the political task. Compare Sunak with Major, or even May.)
So it appears that Selby was the byelection to notice, not Uxbridge. Both results clearly in line with Selby.
Yep. I do still fear outer London may be Labour's GE Achilles heel. Saddiq Khan has damaged Labour.
Cameron was right that the country is not Twitter, not that the media notices.
That can be extended though, the country is not London either, not that the media notices.
If you want to run a country that suits the North, or anywhere outside London, it takes more than taking a picture of you pretending to fill up a tank of petrol. It takes more than saying you are on the side of motorists, while increasing taxes on the cars of the future and failing to invest in roads, charging networks, or any other general infrastructure.
Yes, the reason the Conservatives lost Tamworth was because of a lack of investment in roads. It was not because of the cost of living, decay of the NHS, Partygate, Chris Pincher’s behaviour and Peter Bone’s behaviour, Brexit, delays in the court system, cuts in local government services, Liz Truss, the mishandling of the pandemic, failures on immigration, higher taxes, and flip-flopping on HS2.
Credit to Nick Palmer for tipping Labour for mid-Bedfordshire.
Great tip.
I said Labour would in in mid Beds ages ago - I think before the odious Nadine resigned.
I'm quite pleased with my prediction from yesterday: Lab: 32% Con: 29% LD: 25%
Turnout 51%
Compared to the result: Lab: 34% Con: 31% KD: 23%
Turnout 44%
Two percent out on each party, although I was far too optimistic with the turnout.
Well done.
I think both seats will revert to the Conservatives in the GE but this (and Rutherglen on top) point to a very clear Labour majority.
I think a move could be made against Sunak in the Spring, but with no clear alternative who'd do any better I don't think it'd succeed.
A failed attempt to unseat Sunak is almost the worst possible scenario for the Tories.
I'm obviously going to enjoy it if the Tories are completely routed, but a large Labour majority isn't going to help Parliament assert it's power over the Executive.
So it appears that Selby was the byelection to notice, not Uxbridge. Both results clearly in line with Selby.
Yep. I do still fear outer London may be Labour's GE Achilles heel. Saddiq Khan has damaged Labour.
Unlikely. In a years time ULEZ will have been forgotten as most realise they have compliant cars and wonder what all the fuss was. In any case with these sort of results, a handful of outer London seats not flipping won’t really affect Labour’s majority.
So we saw a lot of hard right splinter parties. ReFUK, NoRespect, the Fascists, UKIP - 10% between them in Tamworth where clearly there is an angry fan club wanting to see The Running Man.
What is missing? Where is the Hamas Solidarity candidate for the BJO left?
I (hesitantly) predicted Labour wins in both seats, and Lab/Con/LD as the order in MidBeds. So, woo!
After all the speculation that a split between Lab and LD would let the Tories win in MidBeds, I note that it was the split right that saw Labour win. The Reform UK vote was bigger than Labour’s majority in both seats. Indeed, in Tamworth, Reform UK + Britain First + UKIP was nearly 10%!!
Yep - but those Reform UK + Britain First + UKIP won't vote for even the Tory party - the idea that going even further right will result in them winning the seat is a bit insane.
But people in a desperate situation are liable to do insane things. And that may well make things worse.
It is an interesting possibility though. Until yesterday, RefUK et al were the dog that didn't bark. If the Conservatives start losing a meaningful number of votes to their right, proper wipeout becomes possible. Not because RefUK will win (m)any seats, but by taking a 5-10 percent of votes that the Conservatives thought they could count on.
The level of investment needed across the country is mind boggling to be honest.
But we don't have the money to invest because we have been living beyond our means, and our tax base, for too long. There is going to be a dangerous amount of frustration when people see how little Starmer and Reeves can do about it.
I (hesitantly) predicted Labour wins in both seats, and Lab/Con/LD as the order in MidBeds. So, woo!
After all the speculation that a split between Lab and LD would let the Tories win in MidBeds, I note that it was the split right that saw Labour win. The Reform UK vote was bigger than Labour’s majority in both seats. Indeed, in Tamworth, Reform UK + Britain First + UKIP was nearly 10%!!
There's no such things as splits in votes. Said the same about Lab and LD, same is true about Tory and Reform or its ilk.
Lab != Lib Dem Tory != Reform
If they were the same, they'd be getting the same party. There's no way to keep hold of your existing vote and gain another parties vote, if you go for another parties voters you might just end up losing your own . . . while still not being trusted by the other parties voters.
The Mainstream party with their 1990s looking website got 24 votes in Mid Beds and finished last.
Given that their ambition is
“Why can't there be a party able to get 51% of the electorate's vote? We all have different views, but there are plenty of views shared in common by at least 51% of our people. "What unites us is more than what divides us". The Tories, Labour and Liberals are so obsessed with getting the votes of small and noisy minorities - they've abandoned those voters who really matter: the MAJORITY. We need a MAINSTREAM party for the Mainstream Majority.”
When people compare the 90s to today they are looking in the wrong place.
The should be comparing Starmer to John Smith rather than Blair.
Also, by far the biggest gap is in the Tories.
John Major’s team are far superior to Sunaks team. Clarke is far stronger than Hunt. Majors immediate predecessor is far stronger than Truss. The government record to defend is far, far weaker.
Above all I continue to be astonished at Sunaks lack of political touch. Spectacularly bad. The public have not warmed to him. Again unlike major.
The level of investment needed across the country is mind boggling to be honest.
Yet government spending is still way higher than tax revenues. Who’s going to have the honest conversation about the need to tax more and spend less?
The appalling state of public sector services in the UK, from prisons, to courts, to NHS, to Universities to Councils is really grating on people. It is going to be a grim winter ahead as more and more cease to function.
Tories talking of inheritance tax cuts is chucking petrol on that fire.
Credit to Nick Palmer for tipping Labour for mid-Bedfordshire.
Great tip.
I said Labour would in in mid Beds ages ago - I think before the odious Nadine resigned.
I'm quite pleased with my prediction from yesterday: Lab: 32% Con: 29% LD: 25%
Turnout 51%
Compared to the result: Lab: 34% Con: 31% KD: 23%
Turnout 44%
Two percent out on each party, although I was far too optimistic with the turnout.
Well done.
I think both seats will revert to the Conservatives in the GE but this (and Rutherglen on top) point to a very clear Labour majority.
I think a move could be made against Sunak in the Spring, but with no clear alternative who'd do any better I don't think it'd succeed.
A failed attempt to unseat Sunak is almost the worst possible scenario for the Tories.
I'm obviously going to enjoy it if the Tories are completely routed, but a large Labour majority isn't going to help Parliament assert it's power over the Executive.
Even better:
Mrs Brady goes to visit Rishi on his private jet to tell him that his position is untenable. Sunak quits. The Tory Party splinters 17 ways. In round 15 of the vote Lee Fuck Off Anderson refuses to accept that he's lost and leads a breakout of doomed blue wall MPs.
Braverman and Badenoch end up as the final two, with outrage in the party from people who won;'t vote for people like that. One of them wins (it doesn't matter which), but clearly cannot command a majority in the Commons. King Chuckie Egg summons one to ask them to try, but the lose an immediate confidence vote. As does the one who lost.
Meanwhile the Tories continue to send out ministers like Andrew Bowie who insist that the country supports the Tories and their agenda of change, and do not support the chaos and division that a Labour continuity government would bring.
Don't laugh at this. It's happening right now in America...
I (hesitantly) predicted Labour wins in both seats, and Lab/Con/LD as the order in MidBeds. So, woo!
After all the speculation that a split between Lab and LD would let the Tories win in MidBeds, I note that it was the split right that saw Labour win. The Reform UK vote was bigger than Labour’s majority in both seats. Indeed, in Tamworth, Reform UK + Britain First + UKIP was nearly 10%!!
Yep - but those Reform UK + Britain First + UKIP won't vote for even the Tory party - the idea that going even further right will result in them winning the seat is a bit insane.
But people in a desperate situation are liable to do insane things. And that may well make things worse.
It is an interesting possibility though. Until yesterday, RefUK et al were the dog that didn't bark. If the Conservatives start losing a meaningful number of votes to their right, proper wipeout becomes possible. Not because RefUK will win (m)any seats, but by taking a 5-10 percent of votes that the Conservatives thought they could count on.
RefUK's vote share in the polling went up about 3pp when Sunak became PM. I don't think it takes a genius to work out what happened there. I suspect that the Tories have forfeited a small but not immaterial chunk of their support as long as he is their leader, no matter what batshit right wing nonsense he comes up with in an effort to win them back.
Credit to Nick Palmer for tipping Labour for mid-Bedfordshire.
Great tip.
I said Labour would in in mid Beds ages ago - I think before the odious Nadine resigned.
I'm quite pleased with my prediction from yesterday: Lab: 32% Con: 29% LD: 25%
Turnout 51%
Compared to the result: Lab: 34% Con: 31% KD: 23%
Turnout 44%
Two percent out on each party, although I was far too optimistic with the turnout.
Well done.
I think both seats will revert to the Conservatives in the GE but this (and Rutherglen on top) point to a very clear Labour majority.
I think a move could be made against Sunak in the Spring, but with no clear alternative who'd do any better I don't think it'd succeed.
A failed attempt to unseat Sunak is almost the worst possible scenario for the Tories.
I'm obviously going to enjoy it if the Tories are completely routed, but a large Labour majority isn't going to help Parliament assert it's power over the Executive.
I can see Sunak being removed in the Spring, it will be the case of needs must.
But it's completely irrelevant - the damage has been done and even appointing Martin Lewis or someone equally popular wouldn't save the current Tory party - the general public know they don't care about people, are out of ideas and need to be replaced.
By wins for LAB in the byelections – politicalbetting.com
Comments
But their vote collapsed. What we’ve seen is two results of historic significance.
The result in Mid Bedfordshire is the biggest majority to ever be overturned at a by-election. Nadine Dorries won by 24,664 just four years ago.
The result in Tamworth is the second biggest swing from the Conservatives to Labour since World War Two.
Labour have now won four by-elections with big swings in recent months - the others are Selby and Rutherglen.
A lot could happen before a general election. People sometimes vote differently at general elections than they do at by-elections.
But the trend of big swings to Labour is hard to ignore.
It’s hugely encouraging news for Sir Keir Starmer as he eyes up a Labour majority. It’s a nightmare for Rishi Sunak and his MPs."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-67126173
Vote Labour in the Danelaw, and LD in Saxon England.
SW London / Surrey and out along the A3 and A303 could be very fertile ground for the LibDems. We already saw last year how Woking turned blue to yellow.
There could be some high profile political decapitations in this neck of the woods.
Great tip.
This is both tory voters abandoning the party and voters choosing Labour. Elsewhere (see below) at the GE they will go with the LibDems.
What's so encouraging for Labour is that they're winning everywhere. Except outer London?
Has to be said, in addition to being an absolute disaster for the Tories these are pretty underwhelming results for the Lib Dems. Third in Mid Beds and pretty much nowhere at all in Tamworth.
There may have been a tactical voting element in Tamworth (although it’s never a seat they’ve done well in) but they should have taken Mid Beds if they are to really challenge in the ‘blue wall.’
🚨 *JUST FOR FUN ALARM* 🚨
How GB would vote if the Tamworth By-Election swing was repeated across the country:
LAB: 537 (+341)
LDM: 46 (+38)
CON: 29 (-347)
SNP: 17 (-31)
GRN: 1 (=)
PLC: 1 (-1)
Labour Majority: 424
Changes w/ GE2019 Notional.
LD the official opposition though...
Not very splendid for the Conservatives.
F1: Because of sprint stupidity, qualifying is today at 10pm.
I'm quite pleased with my prediction from yesterday:
Lab: 32%
Con: 29%
LD: 25%
Turnout 51%
Compared to the result:
Lab: 34%
Con: 31%
KD: 23%
Turnout 44%
Two percent out on each party, although I was far too optimistic with the turnout.
Remember that it isn’t just how many votes Labour can secure, it’s how many voters the Tories can lose. Any Tory voter who refuses to vote Labour who can be persuaded to vote LD or not at all is still a gain for Labour as the winning post drops by one…
One thing, ironically, that might hurt Labour in Tamworth is if Labour commit to building HS2, because it’s one of the seats affected by it.
Mid Beds in the actual GE will be interesting. Labour should get some of those Lib Dem votes but some will go back Tory. By rights it’s a seat that should revert to type at a general but will it?
Tamworth along with Selby really shows how far the Tories have lost north of the Watford gap. I thought Tamworth might be a bit Uxbridgy, but it certainly wasn’t.
There are always jitters before a vote and also disinformation, including expectation management. You need to keep your head and use it. Great way to make money.
1. The landslide is on. As @Heathener has been tipping
2. The election will be late - why go early to massive defeat? Use the shitty weather as advantage on the premise that your remaining meddlesome old ratbag voters use postal votes
3. In both seats the ReFUK / UKIP / Fox / Fascist vote was bigger than the Labour majority. The hardcore of scum really will vote to the right of the Tories. Cost Boris a stack of seats in 2019, will cost the Cons far more in 2025
4. LDs won’t be too disappointed with MidBeds. Doubling the vote as the Tory switch vote where Labour is a bridge too far means picking up a stack of southern seats come the GE
5. Whither the Tories? Brexit is not only done, it’s now a negative, culture wars not working, fuck your lungs not working. They are getting destroyed because the country isn’t working. You can’t hide that, you can’t lie about lived reality, you can’t blame someone else.
Barring some miraculous turnaround in the country feeling less broken or a black swan, the Tories are heading for a demolition at best, or ELE.
A new dawn has broken, has it not?
Warndon Parish South (Worcester) council by-election result:
GRN: 53.7% (+36.2)
CON: 24.9% (-28.4)
LAB: 12.5% (-11.1)
LDEM: 6.7% (+1.2)
REF: 2.1% (+2.1)
Votes cast: 1,365
Green GAIN from Conservative
Warndon Parish (Worcestershire) council by-election result:
GRN: 44.2% (+28.7)
CON: 24.2% (-36.9)
LDEM: 22.5% (+16.3)
LAB: 9.2% (-7.5)
Votes cast: 2,578
Green GAIN from Conservative.
Alveley and Claverley (Shropshire) council by-election result:
LDEM: 58.8% (+36.6)
CON: 36.3% (-33.1)
LAB: 4.9% (+4.9)
Votes cast: 1,125
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.
All from Britain Elects
I can't see an outcome from the 4th local Byelection yet.
Claverley was the home of Mary Whitehouse, of Social Conservatism fame.
Okay, so the Conservative Party and external events have played a massive part in that, but it's also down to Starmer pulling the party back to the centre ground and making them thoroughly electable.
Labour are hungry for power. You can see it.
I read about them in Time magazine
I think both seats will revert to the Conservatives in the GE but this (and Rutherglen on top) point to a very clear Labour majority.
I think a move could be made against Sunak in the Spring, but with no clear alternative who'd do any better I don't think it'd succeed.
What's the point?
Could be worse. The GOP are literally shouting and swearing at each other. A majority in Congress but unable to agree on just how mentalist they should be.
After yesterday we will see the Tories shouting and swearing at each other. The Lee Anderson Fuck Off wing will want Boris back or at least the pretence that Tories care about the north. The John Redwood wing will want a tax on foreigners living abroad. The Braverman - Patel wing will want asylum-seekers torn apart by specially trained Bully XL dogs in the town square
But you could also compare them to 2005-10. We know how that played out.
I’ve always been sceptical about Starmer winning an overall majority because of the enormous number of seats he needs to gain. Swings like this mean it’s plausible. However, I still wouldn’t be betting on a majority of over 30.
The wall of the greater Caucasus, with 5,100m Shkara in the background.
Although how you get them to actually pay the tax, is another question.
But I certainly wouldn't rule out a Labour landslide. It's not nailed on yet, however much Heathener wishcasts, but it's definitely within the realms of possibility.
The highest figures I can remember seeing for some time. Whilst I know the figures won't be exact and are probably overblown, I reckon you can depend on the trend.
The Avdiivka adventure is really hurting Russia.
"Jeremy Corbyn would've won Tamworth and Mid Beds.
(If his friends from Hamas were counting the votes)"
New Zealand v Argentina. Despite Argentina's steady improvement throughout the tournament they wont have the power to beat the All Blacks. They might stay in the fight for up to 60 minutes but expect NZ to go up a gear in the last 20 minutes and close out the game. New Zealand by +20.
South Africa v England. There has been some mind games this week with South Africa claiming England will be favoutites. This will be a brutal game and I expect plenty of yellows and maybe a red or two. England will try to control the kicking game, but forget that it was invented in South Africa. I cant see England being able to control South Africa's surging power. South Africa by +10.
In some ways I am happy that Wales were knocked out last weekend, because there is no way we could challenge NZ.
"We didn't win," he said grumpily. "The Tories did."
Yes, I know that involves a massive and (I think) unprecedented shift from Conservatives to Labour, much more than Blair got in 97. And I know Starmer's no Blair. But Sunak's no Major, either.
That can be extended though, the country is not London either, not that the media notices.
If you want to run a country that suits the North, or anywhere outside London, it takes more than taking a picture of you pretending to fill up a tank of petrol. It takes more than saying you are on the side of motorists, while increasing taxes on the cars of the future and failing to invest in roads, charging networks, or any other general infrastructure.
We need to look at the present facts especially the opinion polls. They're not wrong. More anecdotally I've not heard such anger against a prevailing party since 1997, and it's even more pronounced this time because the economic climate is so much worse (it was good in '97).
And if we're looking at precedence, Labour have just overturned the biggest majority in by-election history.
There are plenty of signs if we're prepared to read and believe them.
Although how he would have felt about agreeing with Thatcher on something...
And that should terrify the Conservatives. If even the Shire Tories seats are going Labour with massive swings, nowhere is safe - except maybe East Coast UKIPalonia.
The Worcester city/council by-elections are interesting - a colossal Green win. Worcester’s Tories have been following the “WaR on MOtoRiSTs” line for years, as recently adopted by Sunak. They’re a reactionary, aggressive bunch very much in line with the current national party. And the Greens have slaughtered them.
This time people are fed up of both. Just thoroughly fed up with the party and its myriad failings. I think more so than 1997.
If you are the Tory party and wish to pursue that plan, go ahead. It will result in even more centralist Tory voters sitting the next election out.
After all the speculation that a split between Lab and LD would let the Tories win in MidBeds, I note that it was the split right that saw Labour win. The Reform UK vote was bigger than Labour’s majority in both seats. Indeed, in Tamworth, Reform UK + Britain First + UKIP was nearly 10%!!
I'm currently tempted to vote Lib Dem, but if the Tories go "Reform" then I'll vote Labour instead.
Just as anyone rational should have voted Tory when Labour went Corbyn.
People were more tribal and loyal back then. The Tory core vote was much higher and they were clearer and more consistent in what they stood for. Since 2010 they have been a messy coalition promising all kinds of different things, few of which they have delivered. And the economy especially household finances are a mess.
If they are starting from further back they are doing so in a turbo powered era.
Well my lifelong tory-voting friend here in Surrey is refusing to vote for them and I infer that she will vote LibDem.
Can't really disagree about Corbyn.
Lab != Lib Dem
Tory != Reform
If they were the same, they'd be getting the same party. There's no way to keep hold of your existing vote and gain another parties vote, if you go for another parties voters you might just end up losing your own . . . while still not being trusted by the other parties voters.
'It's the economy, stupid.'
It has been a godawful few years. Not all of that is the Conservatives' fault but some of it is.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/oct/20/two-thirds-of-englands-maternity-units-dangerously-substandard-says-cqc?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
It is difficult to avoid the wider conclusion though that the tories have given up, have no idea what they are doing in government, have run out of ideas, and are relying on opportunistic political gimmicks, often unwise and poorly judged, wasting vast amounts of public money in the process. Their position is unstable, not based on on any success in governance, but on a specific mandate relating to Brexit, which they have been only partially successful in delivering, and people have now lost interest in. There is nothing left except to just have an election, which they will keep putting off, but it seems more likely than not that their position will get worse in the meantime.
So much more of it is done by electronic and social media these days and that scales up much more easily.
(It has the downside of a generation of politicians, especially on the right, who can't talk to normal people because they've outsourced that bit of the political task. Compare Sunak with Major, or even May.)
I'm obviously going to enjoy it if the Tories are completely routed, but a large Labour majority isn't going to help Parliament assert it's power over the Executive.
https://www.cqc.org.uk/publications/major-report/state-care
What is missing? Where is the Hamas Solidarity candidate for the BJO left?
Deficit £120bn over last four quarters, as the cost of servicing existing debts rises. https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicspending/bulletins/ukgovernmentdebtanddeficitforeurostatmaast/march2023#government-deficit
Governments of all colours have failed to match spending to revenue since 2001. 22 years of deficits.
It is an interesting possibility though. Until yesterday, RefUK et al were the dog that didn't bark. If the Conservatives start losing a meaningful number of votes to their right, proper wipeout becomes possible. Not because RefUK will win (m)any seats, but by taking a 5-10 percent of votes that the Conservatives thought they could count on.
Given that their ambition is
“Why can't there be a party able to get 51% of the electorate's vote? We all have different views, but there are plenty of views shared in common by at least 51% of our people. "What unites us is more than what divides us". The Tories, Labour and Liberals are so obsessed with getting the votes of small and noisy minorities - they've abandoned those voters who really matter: the MAJORITY. We need a MAINSTREAM party for the Mainstream Majority.”
then I’d say they have a bit of work to do yet.
https://www.mainstream.org.uk/
The should be comparing Starmer to John Smith rather than Blair.
Also, by far the biggest gap is in the Tories.
John Major’s team are far superior to Sunaks team. Clarke is far stronger than Hunt. Majors immediate predecessor is far stronger than Truss. The government record to defend is far, far weaker.
Above all I continue to be astonished at Sunaks lack of political touch. Spectacularly bad. The public have not warmed to him. Again unlike major.
Tories talking of inheritance tax cuts is chucking petrol on that fire.
Mrs Brady goes to visit Rishi on his private jet to tell him that his position is untenable. Sunak quits. The Tory Party splinters 17 ways. In round 15 of the vote Lee Fuck Off Anderson refuses to accept that he's lost and leads a breakout of doomed blue wall MPs.
Braverman and Badenoch end up as the final two, with outrage in the party from people who won;'t vote for people like that. One of them wins (it doesn't matter which), but clearly cannot command a majority in the Commons. King Chuckie Egg summons one to ask them to try, but the lose an immediate confidence vote. As does the one who lost.
Meanwhile the Tories continue to send out ministers like Andrew Bowie who insist that the country supports the Tories and their agenda of change, and do not support the chaos and division that a Labour continuity government would bring.
Don't laugh at this. It's happening right now in America...
But it's completely irrelevant - the damage has been done and even appointing Martin Lewis or someone equally popular wouldn't save the current Tory party - the general public know they don't care about people, are out of ideas and need to be replaced.