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Mid Beds – Make your predictions – politicalbetting.com

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  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,001
    carnforth said:

    I once saw a pianist in concert doing a concerto, followed by the piano solo of Rhapsody in Blue after the interval. He changed from dinner jacket to roughly that suit for the latter. No tie, though.
    Totally off topic, Martin Roscoe played the Goldberg Variations in Carlisle last year wearing a black tee shirt so that shirt sleeves wouldn't get in the way of hands and fingers. Fabulous performance too.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    Does anyone know what time we are expecting the results?

    Thanks!

    Previous declaration times

    Mid Beds
    2015 -> 7:42am
    2017 -> 2:07am
    2019 -> 3:09am

    Tamworth
    2015 -> 4:37am
    2017 -> 2:20am
    2019 -> 3:40am
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,487

    I do, we are a lucky generation. Every so often I read Hans Rosling and remind myself how lucky I am.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Factfulness:_Ten_Reasons_We're_Wrong_About_the_World_–_and_Why_Things_Are_Better_Than_You_Think
    It can be like banging one's head off a brick wall, explaining to people that the pre-industrial world was not at all a nice place to live in, unless you were a king, sultan, raja, or great noble.

    Most people think that the world c.1780 was The Shire.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    edited October 2023

    Thats because you spent years scaring the shit out of people and wont challenge the ultra shit scarers when they are wrong.
    Who is the “you” in this? I have never made any effort to scare anyone on climate change. It was always, obviously, a fixable problem.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,783
    Sean_F said:

    It can be like banging one's head off a brick wall, explaining to people that the pre-industrial world was not at all a nice place to live in, unless you were a king, sultan, raja, or great noble.

    Most people think that the world c.1780 was The Shire.
    That had me laughing!
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,684
    edited October 2023
    carnforth said:

    I once saw a pianist in concert doing a concerto, followed by the piano solo of Rhapsody in Blue after the interval. He changed from dinner jacket to roughly that suit for the latter. No tie, though.
    Additional fun fact: that famous clarinet glissando which opens the piece? Gershwin didn't write it. He wrote the piece for piano and sent it off to an orchestrator.
  • The polling stations for this thread have now closed
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,001
    Pagan2 said:

    Sorry this is total bollocks, when people question the licence fee we are constantly told the bbc is world class and totally impartial. When it is shown they are biassed slithey toads then we are told they are being held to an impossibly high standards. Pick one or the other but dont whinge when people point out the bbc are mostly staffed by people who can be described by words that rhyme with punts
    Fascinating. I don't think a single word of what you claim is true. And there are plenty of legitimate criticisms that can be made of the BBC.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,841
    Andy_JS said:

    Previous declaration times

    Mid Beds
    2015 -> 7:42am
    2017 -> 2:07am
    2019 -> 3:09am

    Tamworth
    2015 -> 4:37am
    2017 -> 2:20am
    2019 -> 3:40am
    With a lower turnout hopefully we'll have it all wrapped up by 3am
  • Andy_JS said:

    Previous declaration times

    Mid Beds
    2015 -> 7:42am
    2017 -> 2:07am
    2019 -> 3:09am

    Tamworth
    2015 -> 4:37am
    2017 -> 2:20am
    2019 -> 3:40am
    Thanks Andy!
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,684

    The polling stations for this thread have now closed

    Can't see a new thread on Vanilla
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,785
    ...

    That had me laughing!
    Even if you were a King, we live in considerably more comfort than even the most pampered of them. I wouldn't go back to pissing in a pot, even if it was Sevre and there was someone holding it for me.
  • NEW THREAD

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,144
    viewcode said:

    It's a direct train and only about a hour long. It's got WiFi. If you avoid rush hour should be OK?
    Not sure there will be any trains tomorrow. Weren't many today. Plus I have 3 bags to carry.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,581
    boulay said:

    I love the BBC. For most of my life I’ve loved their children’s programmes, comedy, drama, sports, news. The works. I would pay the licence fee purely for Radio 4. I listen to Today six mornings a week but I get so fucking angry with their de haut en bas decision making about what is partial and impartial and the bizarre ways they work out what “balance” really is.

    Jeremy Bowen just could not bring himself to say “we might have jumped the gun” this morning on Today after Tugendhat calmly pointed out the errors over the hospital reporting. It’s a mix of arrogance, confusion, not understanding that the world doesn’t think the way they do. There is a thing called “BBC diversity” which is that the BBC are full of people of every colour and creed so they think they have diverse input but it’s not because those people of diverse colour and creed are largely from a similar social viewpoint or background. The groupthink will kill the bbc. Moving bits to Salford doesn’t make it diverse because they fill it with key people from the bbc in London with the same views so it can never change.

    I just find it depressing that they consider themselves educated and superior but cannot also consider if the way they think might just be wrong occasionally.

    They aren’t the only ones and it is a symptom of “quick news”. Pretty much every news outlet needs to make it big that they got it wrong over the hospital attack as do Arab governments if they want to lance the boil that’s growing.
    This is very cogently argued and quite persuasive as to the reasons for the initial reporting, but I wonder if the BBC’s reluctance to admit fault today has another cause.

    It seems to be that over the last decade the government have successfully delegitimised the BBC such that the corporation is constantly second guessing itself. A strong, confident organisation would take responsibility for its mistakes regardless of its biases, in my view. Instead, I think the BBC is fearful of what might happen if it does admit fault.

    I think we are seeing the product of a concerted attack on the BBC over the past decade.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794
    algarkirk said:

    Fascinating. I don't think a single word of what you claim is true. And there are plenty of legitimate criticisms that can be made of the BBC.
    So you deny a bbc journalist claiming israel bombed a hospital and there recurring assertion of 500 dead?

    Both these were lies as investigations have shown.....how is that impartial or factual...they are total dicks
  • carnforth said:

    Can't see a new thread on Vanilla
    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/10/19/the-by-election-betting-as-voting-ends/
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,684

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/10/19/the-by-election-betting-as-voting-ends/
    Ta
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,487

    ...

    Even if you were a King, we live in considerably more comfort than even the most pampered of them. I wouldn't go back to pissing in a pot, even if it was Sevre and there was someone holding it for me.
    Windsor Castle had privies in the 1370's, and Henry VIII built the Great House of Easement at Hampton Court. OTOH, they were using chamber pots at Versailles until 1776. It was a question of priorities.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794
    maxh said:

    This is very cogently argued and quite persuasive as to the reasons for the initial reporting, but I wonder if the BBC’s reluctance to admit fault today has another cause.

    It seems to be that over the last decade the government have successfully delegitimised the BBC such that the corporation is constantly second guessing itself. A strong, confident organisation would take responsibility for its mistakes regardless of its biases, in my view. Instead, I think the BBC is fearful of what might happen if it does admit fault.

    I think we are seeing the product of a concerted attack on the BBC over the past decade.
    The bbc has always been worthy of attack, they have always pushed a line of the correct way to think
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,155
    biggles said:


    Who is the “you” in this? I have never made any effort to scare anyone on climate change. It was always, obviously, a fixable problem.
    That's what always made me most upset about it. It was a problem we were able to foresee, and could do something about, but for a long time lots of people refused to take it seriously.

    I'm not quite so optimistic as you about 2-2.5C warming - the survival of the Greenland Ice Sheet would be touch and go at that level, and it's about twice as much warming as we've already seen, so I think it could create plenty bad enough impacts. I think we could save ourselves a lot of bother if we made more of an effort over the next 5-10 years or so to speed up the pace of transition.

    But all the same, I've never been as hopeful as I am now about the issue because it's clear that the energy transition has built up a lot of momentum now, and that closes off almost all of the worst-case scenario risks.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    GIN1138 said:

    With a lower turnout hopefully we'll have it all wrapped up by 3am
    Except a close result is likely in both seats, which will slow things down.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,785
    Sean_F said:

    Windsor Castle had privies in the 1370's, and Henry VIII built the Great House of Easement at Hampton Court. OTOH, they were using chamber pots at Versailles until 1776. It was a question of priorities.
    Sure, but it was still pretty much a hole suspended above a cesspit. The Romans were better for luxuries like plumbing, but I still wouldn't go back.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,581
    biggles said:

    One of the issues is
    that if they accepted that improvement, they would also have to see that it was driven by democracy, open markets, and technology. The spreading of westernised civilisation, in fact. But that can’t be right as all those things are imperialist….
    What about the rise of China? That has had a huge negative impact on absolute poverty, and doesn’t fit your narrative of the spread of westernised civilisation (or at least the democracy part).
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,954

    I've been idly looking at the profit margins of various luxury goods companies in a, so far futile, attempt to find a luxury goods* company with a higher profit margin than Games Workshop (>40% in their most recent quarter) and this evening, after yet another perfume ad, I alighted on the latest results for L'Oreal. A very healthy profit margin of ~20%, but what stood out is that they spend almost one-third of their revenue on advertising and promotion. A third! It's more than they spend on the products that they sell themselves. ~€32.3bn in revenue created by ~€10.6bn in advertising spend.

    * Besides the obvious, like a diamond or gold miner.

    Now take a look at how much the big pharma companies spend on marketing, compared to how much they spend on research...

    Spoiler alert, as it saves you googling... https://www.csrxp.org/icymi-new-study-finds-big-pharma-spent-more-on-sales-and-marketing-than-rd-during-pandemic/
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,012
    maxh said:

    This is very cogently argued and quite persuasive as to the reasons for the initial reporting, but I wonder if the BBC’s reluctance to admit fault today has another cause.

    It seems to be that over the last decade the government have successfully delegitimised the BBC such that the corporation is constantly second guessing itself. A strong, confident organisation would take responsibility for its mistakes regardless of its biases, in my view. Instead, I think the BBC is fearful of what might happen if it does admit fault.

    I think we are seeing the product of a concerted attack on the BBC over the past decade.
    Perhaps. More though I think it's a lack of realisation of the seriousness of the error in the age of misinformation - and how badly they compounded it by not immediately and unequivocally rowing it back, particularly keeping social media posts up that heavily suggested one conclusion. Obviously reporting from a warzone is difficult - and Gaza even more so than most given the 'government' is a vile terrorist organisation. Reporters will make honest mistakes. But they failed to realise, and still do I think, the gravity of the news beyond the initial horror, that they announced and that therefore it should have been initially shared with a much greater health warning, because the lie they repeated as relative fact, has now been shared by millions who will probably never believe the eventual truth of the matter, and caused major geopolitical ructions and put others in harm's way. Bowen et al have taken a "these things happen" approach, which is in a sense true, but which really isn't good enough with a conflict this fraught - and which has been so ripe for disinformation because lots of people really want to to turn it into a football match and inflame tensions, and any report that gets its emphasis this wrong is a God-send to those for whom this is their aim. There's also undoubtedly some groupthink there in terms of no one going "hang on a minute" quite early on and realising how important their failure was. Plenty of internet users without a particular 'side' they favour realised early on that the initial information didn't seem 100% trustworthy.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,562
    There is clearly something about Gaza.

    It is not primarily the desk jockeys in their warm studios with their liberal groupthink who are having a bad war, but the gnarled masses of world weary war correspondents in Gaza itself.

    Is it that Gaza has a uniquely repressive government? I'd suggest a lot of the places with wars have government handlers and guards and the correspondents should have familiarity with that. And the editorial tricks to deal with the idea that, for example, Steve Rosenberg in Moscow has to say his piece in a slightly guarded way, so we'll also talk to someone else, somewhere else is pretty textbook.

    A couple of thoughts on my part:

    Maybe Gaza is a pressure cooker like no other. In a standard war you may not be located under fire all the time, you go back to the hotel away from the front line and, yes, you need to know where the bomb shelter is. So, that fraught trip to Bucha is a harrowing but discrete event.

    In the tight space of Gaza is there any respite from the internal refugees, from the strikes, from the populace, from the suffering. Or perhaps the situation they see is different. Anna Notting just wasn't quite right in that interview the other day. Is Gaza a more PTSD inducing place than more normal war zones.

    My other thought sort of mirrors LuckyGuy's point, though I wouldn't put it the same way. There is not one single clear UK editorial line here, and both the Palestinian and Israeli stories are being told. That is not the norm, so could they really be struggling with that?


This discussion has been closed.