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Mid Beds – Make your predictions – politicalbetting.com

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,465
    edited October 2023
    glw said:

    There is a level of ignorance that is honestly perplexing, because it used to be in the news all the time; bombings, hijackings, assassinations, Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank, various summits and deals, on and on. As I say I think 9/11, Afghanistan, Iraq, and GWOT seems to have completely filled that particular box of general knowledge for anyone below 35.
    Leon loves to go on about all da yuff are a load of thickies...I think it is more that although all the worlds knowledge is available at your fingertips and you can now even chat with a bot that will inform you of this stuff, the saturation of "noise" is what a lot of people fill their time with and thus much more ignorant of things that "back in the day" were widely known.

    TikTok, YouTube, Twitch, Netflix....why would you be searching out information about complex historical geo-political topics when you can just swipe again and get another bit of fast food style entertainment.

    Also, easy come, easy go, in the sense of when it was hard to find out new information, that process of finding it means it is likely to stick, now if just whizzes by with the thought I can always look it up again if needed.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    edited October 2023
    MattW said:

    When you put power in, be sure to install a couple of spare plastic ducts with drawstrings.

    Just in case you may need a second or third run, data and so on.

    (Make sure you know how big any cables may end up, and bear in mind that grid connected can include a lot of extra gubbins, isolation stuff to avoid shocking engineers repairing the grid, and paperwork.)

    I recently did this and had a long conversation with my electrician where we were speculating about likely future needs for high end car chargers (detached garage/workshop) to make an assumption on amps. I had not considered solar on its roof. Good idea. Wish I had thought about that. Make a virtue of the accessibility.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794
    maxh said:

    Er, isn’t that three things?

    And (this is meant with the greatest respect) I do suspect that those three might be filtered through their father and father - in- laws somewhat curmudgeonly worldview, rather than being neutrally reported!

    On a more serious philosophical note, I think 2 is bonkers. Paying tax is, in my view, quite a few rungs above not existing at all on the great ladder of human existence.
    Not filtered at all through my world view. They say tomorrows children will end up paying for todays profligacy. I think they are right but there choice not to have children isn't something I have pushed in the least. It was a conversation they started as they thought I might be sad to not be a grandfather. I did not push them that way in the least it is their choice it was the reasons they listed
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,562
    biggles said:

    I can picture a few hundred in a crowd trying to get into a hospital. And I can picture a rocket motor + payload + fuel killing them quite easily.
    I think to assess the likely scale of an explosive projectile going through an open air crowd you need to go away from war and think of things like the Rammstein Air Show crash or the Le Man's disaster and see what death tolls make sense.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,262
    Here's an interesting thought: Gary Kasparov has suggested that Lloyd Austin would be a good replacement for Joe Biden.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lloyd_Austin

    This does seem like a time when military experience would be helpful in a president.

    (I have no idea what political skills Austin has, if any.)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,172

    I'm not sure I even believe the 'thousands of civilians killed' in Gaza now. Clearly there have been many casualties, but where do the precise numbers come from? The same source as the 500?

    Edit: Not that it should particularly be a numbers game, but still...
    And yet every update of every fanciful figure is reported as fact by the BBC. Things really have to change.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,368
    Pro_Rata said:

    I think to assess the likely scale of an explosive projectile going through an open air crowd you need to go away from war and think of things like the Rammstein Air Show crash or the Le Man's disaster and see what death tolls make sense.
    At the Ramstein disaster, the aircraft hit the runway rather than the crowd, and still killed 70 odd people.
  • glw said:

    There is a level of ignorance that is honestly perplexing, because it used to be in the news all the time; bombings, hijackings, assassinations, Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank, various summits and deals, on and on. As I say I think 9/11, Afghanistan, Iraq, and GWOT seems to have completely filled that particular box of general knowledge for anyone below 35.
    I think its more than just that.

    Ariel Sharon did a wonderful job at getting a unilateral semi-stable 'peace' compared to what existed when we were younger.

    By withdrawing from Gaza etc, and more importantly by building the wall that kept terrorists largely out of Israel, there has been a frozen conflict like North Korea/South Korea rather than a major conflict on the boil.

    Until now.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,465
    edited October 2023
    glw said:

    I've said before, many times, we used to live in a world of 3/4/5 TV channels, current affairs got peak time slots (Panorama and World in Action), newspapers were profitable, serious, and well staffed, and speech radio was Radio 4 or the World Service. You almost couldn't avoid serious informed news reporting. We have vastly more choices now, but the average quality is woeful.

    I'm not saying we should go back, but we've certainly lost something important as times has passed.
    We saw it with COVID, we are seeing it now.
  • DavidL said:

    Really? Where's Malcolm?
    Mr Salmond! Cooooeeee!
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794

    We saw it with COVID, we are seeing it now.
    You had restricted points of view and no doubt most of those points of view had already got together before hand and agreed the points they were pushing. I am glad we don't need to rely on what a few conglomerates decide is the truth they can fuck off
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,465
    edited October 2023
    Pagan2 said:

    You had restricted points of view and no doubt most of those points of view had already got together before hand and agreed the points they were pushing. I am glad we don't need to rely on what a few conglomerates decide is the truth they can fuck off
    It wasn't just that, it was how often they absolutely f##ked reporting of factual data.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,465
    edited October 2023
    Now I here a lot about reports from the conflict on twitter and telegram...I don't hear much about Mastadon and Threads....
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    Another day, another Iranian proxy group. This time missiles shot down by the US. Not sure we’re getting out of this without a confrontation with Iran.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/19/politics/us-navy-intercept-missiles-yemen/index.html
  • Now I here a lot about reports from the conflict on twitter and telegram...I don't hear much about Mastadon and Threads....

    Unless Leon's had a few drinks, then BRACE for another Threads airing.
  • Here's an interesting thought: Gary Kasparov has suggested that Lloyd Austin would be a good replacement for Joe Biden.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lloyd_Austin

    This does seem like a time when military experience would be helpful in a president.

    (I have no idea what political skills Austin has, if any.)

    A good leader isn't one who has expertise in a particular area. When you've got a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

    It's an intelligent person who can take, but critically assess advice.

    I'm reminded of the story of Sunak laying out his own spreadsheets. It's meant to make him look good, but it makes him look narrow and unable to delegate effectively.

    Austin might have a lot of strings to his bow, to be fair. But selecting him due to a focus on a particular area worries me slightly. Where is he on macroeconomic policy, or the environment, or transport?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    GIN1138 said:

    A second recount likely at 4am? Get the coffee on Andy J it's going to be a long night 😂
    Could be.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,172
    biggles said:

    Linking in to the above discussion about basic knowledge, I don’t think many grasp that the government in Gaza IS Hamas, not the Palestinian authority. Sometimes the BBC and Sky should just go back to basics.
    They also still behave as if Hamas was [insert credible government here, bit trickier than I thought tbh] rather than a bunch of terrorists. The population of Gaza are not exactly on a social security list. 80% of them were not maintained by Hamas at all but by various UN agencies, with considerable EU funding. I am pretty damn sure they wouldn't even know how many people live in Gaza, let alone be able to give accurate figures for death or injuries.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    edited October 2023
    DavidL said:

    They also still behave as if Hamas was [insert credible government here, bit trickier than I thought tbh] rather than a bunch of terrorists. The population of Gaza are not exactly on a social security list. 80% of them were not maintained by Hamas at all but by various UN agencies, with considerable EU funding. I am pretty damn sure they wouldn't even know how many people live in Gaza, let alone be able to give accurate figures for death or injuries.
    It would be amusing if, in the end, Hamas falls because the locals want someone who can empty the bins.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,154
    biggles said:

    It would be amusing if, in the end, Hamas falls because the locals want someone who can empty the bins.
    How many bins? 7 or 500?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,243
    biggles said:

    It would be amusing if, in the end, Hamas falls because the locals want someone who can empty the bins.
    All seven of them?
  • biggles said:

    It would be amusing if, in the end, Hamas falls because the locals want someone who can empty the bins.
    Don't get me started on the Hamas approach on LTNs.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,955
    biggles said:

    It would be amusing if, in the end, Hamas falls because the locals want someone who can empty the bins.
    I think potholes seem to be the bigger problem.

    I wonder if Nick Clegg could be parachuted in...
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,262
    Here's a sour conclusion about vaccines: If a disease is spread by person-to-person contact, then often your best individual strategy is to have everyone you are in contact with vaccinated, but skip the vaccination yourself (assuming there are possible bad effects from it, as there almost are).

    That's assuming pure self interest, but if you care about the people who you come in contact with even a little, you will usually want to be vaccinated.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    Maybe that’s it. The perfect nemesis for Hamas. The fabled LibDem local politics led by-election machine.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,816
    I wonder if the Democrats will suffer from the pro-Palestinian slant on TikTok and Reels. Anedoctally I’ve just seen someone who would otherwise be a Democrat voter saying they won’t vote for them over it.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    On the other hand, Russia may not get the same shipments of Iranian drones.
  • biggles said:

    Agree. Through to 2005 or so, the soap opera of the peace deal following the Oslo Accords was on the news a lot, and then it died. I think the world suffered more than we can know from Sharon dying (he really seemed intent on doing a Nixon/China thing), Arafat having no vision, and foolishly allowing free elections in Gaza.
    2005 or so again dates to pre Sharon's West Bank Wall and unilateral peacemaking.

    Its a shame Sharon died, as he was doing a really good job, much better than Netanyahu.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,172
    biggles said:

    Maybe that’s it. The perfect nemesis for Hamas. The fabled LibDem local politics led by-election machine.

    Winning here (if not in Mid Bedfordshire).
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754

    I wonder if the Democrats will suffer from the pro-Palestinian slant on TikTok and Reels. Anedoctally I’ve just seen someone who would otherwise be a Democrat voter saying they won’t vote for them over it.

    Idea for a TikTok video. Show a Hamas member the usual content of a Hamas supporting TikToker, and film the reaction as the Hamas chap says they should be put to death.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794
    biggles said:

    It would be amusing if, in the end, Hamas falls because the locals want someone who can empty the bins.
    We could send the lib dems over
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,668
    .
    DavidL said:

    And yet every update of every fanciful figure is reported as fact by the BBC. Things really have to change.
    That is not true. I have just reviewed multiple BBC articles on the conflict: not one quotes a figure from the Gaza Health Ministry or other source in an unqualified manner.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,172
    I normally don't get very excited by weather but we are now getting a clearer impression of what a red warning feels like. And its not very nice.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,806

    Hamas wouldn’t know what had hit them if we air-dropped a load of leaflets with bar charts showing that “only the Lib Dems can win here”.
    Especially if they feature a quotation from our authoritative host.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,156
    DavidL said:

    I normally don't get very excited by weather but we are now getting a clearer impression of what a red warning feels like. And its not very nice.

    A red warning is certainly not to be trifled with.
  • DavidL said:

    I normally don't get very excited by weather but we are now getting a clearer impression of what a red warning feels like. And its not very nice.

    I was speaking to a pollster earlier and they reckon it is events like this which really batters the reputation of Sunak and the Tories.

    The voters see extreme weather like this as evidence of climate change and Rishi telling us he is abolishing non existent green crap looks bad.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,465
    edited October 2023

    .

    That is not true. I have just reviewed multiple BBC articles on the conflict: not one quotes a figure from the Gaza Health Ministry or other source in an unqualified manner.
    Erhhh...lead page on the BBC.

    Over 3,700 people killed in Gaza - health officials
    We've had some updated figures from the health ministry in Gaza, who say at least 3,785 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since Hamas attacked Israel on 7 October.

    Among those killed, 1,524 were children, 1,000 were women, and 120 were elderly, they say.

    A total of 12,493 have been injured, the health officials added.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-middle-east-67141589/page/2

    Then there is one line statement that the 500 claim for the hospital incident is disputed, but the others are reported without qualification. It doesn't even clarify that Hamas are the ones who run the health ministry.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754

    2005 or so again dates to pre Sharon's West Bank Wall and unilateral peacemaking.

    Its a shame Sharon died, as he was doing a really good job, much better than Netanyahu.
    We will never know, but some say Sharon was shopping up to dismantle more settlements and really push for peace in a Nixon/China way. But we will never know.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,772
    edited October 2023
    LDs shortening in Mid Beds - now in to 8.

    Lab drifting - now 2.7.

    Con fairly stable at 1.9.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,302
    Re US politics, it does actually sadden me that I think Biden is too old to run again. I think he has, on the whole, been a decent president. And I think he commands international respect. A lot of people do him a disservice on that front.

    Let’s use a practical example of his visit to Israel yesterday. He got a practical result in the agreement on the border. But during his news conference with Netanyahu he started to talk about his previous conversation with a former “secretary of state”, and he seized up, and forgot where it was going, and had to abandon the train of thought. Because he clearly could not remember what he was going to say.

    That is the sadness about Joe Biden. As a diplomat, he is tremendously experienced, well respected, and still commands some authority and presence of mind to get results. But he is in unmistakeable decline, and he isn’t the right person to lead for another 4 years. It is a shame he did not become president in 2016.
  • We really need to talk about the Reform candidate's suit.



    https://twitter.com/reformparty_uk/status/1714971740793672161
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,772
    Tamworth - looks like Lab has won - Back 1.1, Lay 1.2.

    Nobody backing Con.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,784

    I was speaking to a pollster earlier and they reckon it is events like this which really batters the reputation of Sunak and the Tories.

    The voters see extreme weather like this as evidence of climate change and Rishi telling us he is abolishing non existent green crap looks bad.
    Right so he'll be stopping expansion of coal power stations in India or China. He might as well sit in front of the North and give orders to the waves like a Canute.

    We have the wrong green crap
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,806
    ...

    We really need to talk about the Reform candidate's suit.



    https://twitter.com/reformparty_uk/status/1714971740793672161

    He's following in Farage's footsteps by having a name that evokes the Continent.
  • We really need to talk about the Reform candidate's suit.



    https://twitter.com/reformparty_uk/status/1714971740793672161

    Because he stole it off you?

    Or because you have the shoes to go with it?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012

    .

    That is not true. I have just reviewed multiple BBC articles on the conflict: not one quotes a figure from the Gaza Health Ministry or other source in an unqualified manner.
    The BBC is being held to a ludicrously high standard and at the same time is being subjected to massive exaggeration and distortion. It is imperfect; perhaps in the context of the Middle East it could be described as the least imperfect actor on the entire scene. Are there any better candidates for that remarkable accolade?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,546

    Re US politics, it does actually sadden me that I think Biden is too old to run again. I think he has, on the whole, been a decent president. And I think he commands international respect. A lot of people do him a disservice on that front.

    Let’s use a practical example of his visit to Israel yesterday. He got a practical result in the agreement on the border. But during his news conference with Netanyahu he started to talk about his previous conversation with a former “secretary of state”, and he seized up, and forgot where it was going, and had to abandon the train of thought. Because he clearly could not remember what he was going to say.

    That is the sadness about Joe Biden. As a diplomat, he is tremendously experienced, well respected, and still commands some authority and presence of mind to get results. But he is in unmistakeable decline, and he isn’t the right person to lead for another 4 years. It is a shame he did not become president in 2016.

    I generally agree with this. Not perfect by any means, but if only he were a little younger and that attack did not resonate.
  • Right so he'll be stopping expansion of coal power stations in India or China. He might as well sit in front of the North and give orders to the waves like a Canute.

    We have the wrong green crap
    That's not how the voters see it.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,806
    edited October 2023

    Right so he'll be stopping expansion of coal power stations in India or China. He might as well sit in front of the North and give orders to the waves like a Canute.

    We have the wrong green crap
    I think TSE's pollster may be projecting some of his own personal feelings on to other people. I'd certainly like to see the data reflecting the levees bursting with vengeful voters out to get Sunak for not banning gas boilers because there's been some rain. I find it likelier that they won't vote for him because he's shite.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,302

    We really need to talk about the Reform candidate's suit.



    https://twitter.com/reformparty_uk/status/1714971740793672161

    If that’s what a saved Britain looks like, I don’t want to be saved.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,259

    We really need to talk about the Reform candidate's suit.



    https://twitter.com/reformparty_uk/status/1714971740793672161

    Good look, not well tailored, the tie didn't need to be shiny, the haircut is not good. Otherwise not bad TBH.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405
    glw said:

    I've said before, many times, we used to live in a world of 3/4/5 TV channels, current affairs got peak time slots (Panorama and World in Action), newspapers were profitable, serious, and well staffed, and speech radio was Radio 4 or the World Service. You almost couldn't avoid serious informed news reporting. We have vastly more choices now, but the average quality is woeful.

    I'm not saying we should go back, but we've certainly lost something important as times has passed.
    We should go back, but unfortunately we can't. Choice is awful - people make bad choices. Most people don't want to watch serious content. They certainly don't want to pay for it. They want cheap, undemanding entertainment. This leaves them ill-informed and gullible, easy pray for populists, propagandists and peddlers of conspiracy theories. Sorry if this comes across as an elitist view.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    Having followed a lot of coverage of these dreadful events, I have yet to notice a single word of criticism from anyone actually physically within Gaza of any aspect of governance, politics, administration or of any individual or group within Gaza itself. This is true both of journalists and of all others. Should I draw the obvious conclusions?
  • NYT - Jordan Reverses Himself and Will Push for a Third Speaker Vote

    Hours after saying he would endorse empowering an interim speaker, the hard-right Republican from Ohio reversed himself and said he would pursue another vote in his bid for speaker.

    In a day of whiplash and uncertainty on Capitol Hill, Representative Jim Jordan of Ohio said Thursday he would push for another vote to become speaker, even in the face of a growing bloc of Republican opposition.

    Just hours after the hard-right Republican said he would hit pause on his candidacy and support elevating the interim speaker, Representative Patrick T. McHenry of North Carolina, to temporarily lead the House, Mr. Jordan reversed course yet again and said he would move forward with his bid to win the post. It was not immediately clear when another vote could be scheduled.

    His decision came after a furious backlash from rank-and-file Republicans including many of his far-right supporters, who said empowering Mr. McHenry — a stand-in appointed to his post after the ouster of then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy — would effectively cede control of the House floor to Democrats and set a bad precedent.

    It was the latest abrupt turn in a Republican speaker drama that has played out for more than two weeks, underscoring the depth of the party’s divisions and disarray. Unable to unite behind a candidate to lead them, the G.O.P. now can’t even agree on a temporary solution to allow the paralyzed House to function while they sort out their differences.

    SSI - no word re: when the next performance is scheduled, for Donald Trump's Rabid Flying Squirrel Circus.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,784
    algarkirk said:

    The BBC is being held to a ludicrously high standard and at the same time is being subjected to massive exaggeration and distortion. It is imperfect; perhaps in the context of the Middle East it could be described as the least imperfect actor on the entire scene. Are there any better candidates for that remarkable accolade?
    It is well aware of the Middle East sensitivities on our own streets. One might have thought as the national broadcaster it could have grasped this point.

    Apparently not.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    viewcode said:

    Good look, not well tailored, the tie didn't need to be shiny, the haircut is not good. Otherwise not bad TBH.
    What is the problem from which wearing that suit can save me?
  • algarkirk said:

    What is the problem from which wearing that suit can save me?
    Being taken seriously?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012

    It is well aware of the Middle East sensitivities on our own streets. One might have thought as the national broadcaster it could have grasped this point.

    Apparently not.
    All true but my point still stands. Both here and in the Middle East the BBC is surrounded by sub optimal actors. I suggest it is among the least sub optimal (and actually is very good).
  • Because he stole it off you?

    Or because you have the shoes to go with it?
    Look I love light blue(s) but even I wouldn't wear that suit.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,492

    That's not how the voters see it.
    But, the voters don't want wear the hair shirt, either.
  • DavidL said:

    I normally don't get very excited by weather but we are now getting a clearer impression of what a red warning feels like. And its not very nice.

    Hope you are keeping safe.

    We have some friends near Inverarity so in the Red area.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,492

    Look I love light blue(s) but even I wouldn't wear that suit.
    I've got quite a smart sky blue suit.

    It's very Reichsmarshall Goering.
  • Sean_F said:

    But, the voters don't want wear the hair shirt, either.
    The voters are hypocrites but right now an overwhelming number of voters (including plenty of people who voted Tory in 2019) blame the government for plenty of ills, this is just another example.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,259
    algarkirk said:

    What is the problem from which wearing that suit can save me?
    Tedium?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Tamworth is difficult to call but I'm going for a very narrow Labour gain.

    Prediction:

    Lab 43.9%
    Con 43.7%
    Reform 5.0%
    LD 4.1%
    Green 1.8%
    UKIP 0.5%
    Longman 0.4%
    OMRLP 0.4%
    Britain First 0.2%

    Turnout: 39.2%
  • Sean_F said:

    I've got quite a smart sky blue suit.

    It's very Reichsmarshall Goering.
    I once wore a brown suit to a wedding where the bride is Northern Ireland Catholic.

    At the night event under the disco lights my suit looked orange.

    Orange Order orange.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,492

    I wonder if the Democrats will suffer from the pro-Palestinian slant on TikTok and Reels. Anedoctally I’ve just seen someone who would otherwise be a Democrat voter saying they won’t vote for them over it.

    I think it's a minor problem (but minor could matter in a very close election) for both the Democrats and Labour. If you think that Western nations are the Great Satan, you see Israel as last white colony.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,784
    edited October 2023

    That's not how the voters see it.
    Some voters perhaps but not all. There is a sensible message to go out and its not net zero. UK Net zero solves nothing China USA India will wipe out any of our inconsequential efforts. Our priorities are to future proof the UK, protect bio diversity and eliminate single use plastics. I could add an energy policy which leaves us self sufficient and no/low pollution.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,806
    This conflict is very refreshing in the sense that the truth is being contested and knowledge is sought after. I think it's because on the one side you have Israel, an established part of the Western alliance and a country with a lot of soft power and supporters in the West, and then on the other you have the Palestinian cause, which has a great deal of support in the ascendant liberal woke blobocracy. There isn't a solidified narrative, which there was in Syria and there certainly is in Ukraine. A Russian hospital massacre was a Russian hospital massacre in those days, and you weren't to question it, casualties or no casualties.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,172

    .

    That is not true. I have just reviewed multiple BBC articles on the conflict: not one quotes a figure from the Gaza Health Ministry or other source in an unqualified manner.
    "The Palestinian ministry of health says six people have been killed in clashes with the Israeli military in Nur Shams refugee in the occupied West Bank - the military says it used an aircraft to strike a "terrorist squad"


    "Hamas say 400,000 of the 1.1 million people who call northern Gaza home headed south down the Salah al-Din Road in the last 48 hours, following Israel's order to leave."

    How hard did you try? This took under a minute.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754

    That's not how the voters see it.
    Even if there is polling to show that (I’ve not seen any but it might be there), politicians (I’m looking at Starmer) need to actually lead. A section of the public have become neo-religious nutters who think if they flagellate themselves they can reverse the apocalypse. And bizarrely, that is the right word because many of them seem to think climate change will destroy life on earth despite none of the models showing that even in the worst case 3/4 degree increase scenarios, where technology doesn’t advance and we all go back to burning coal.

    I despair. I’ve worked on some of the science here and I used to spend my days trying to convince people climate change was an issue and dispelling nonsense like the “hockey stick” graph. Now, because I will not get behind apocalyptic non-scientific forecasts or accept that whether the U.K. bans petrol in 2030 or 2035 will make the slightest difference, I get called the “denier”.

    The world has been infantilised. People need to understand that a mix of declared policies and technology change means we’ve more or less fixed the problem. We’ve won. The global temperature will rise by 2-2.5 degrees and some islands will need to be relocated while some agriculture changes. But we’ve done it.

    Starmer and his generation get to declare victory.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,172

    Hope you are keeping safe.

    We have some friends near Inverarity so in the Red area.
    I've got to do a trip from Dundee to Stirling tomorrow for a deferred sentence and a jury decision. Not looking forward to it especially.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,793

    We really need to talk about the Reform candidate's suit.



    https://twitter.com/reformparty_uk/status/1714971740793672161

    He has quite a large head.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,806

    I once wore a brown suit to a wedding where the bride is Northern Ireland Catholic.

    At the night event under the disco lights my suit looked orange.

    Orange Order orange.
    You'd have got away with it if only you'd not teamed it with a bowler hat.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,784
    DavidL said:

    "The Palestinian ministry of health says six people have been killed in clashes with the Israeli military in Nur Shams refugee in the occupied West Bank - the military says it used an aircraft to strike a "terrorist squad"


    "Hamas say 400,000 of the 1.1 million people who call northern Gaza home headed south down the Salah al-Din Road in the last 48 hours, following Israel's order to leave."

    How hard did you try? This took under a minute.
    The Kuwaiti government kicked 400,000 Palestinians out of their country in 1991 something to do with asking Saddam Hussein to kill their hosts.
  • We should go back, but unfortunately we can't. Choice is awful - people make bad choices. Most people don't want to watch serious content. They certainly don't want to pay for it. They want cheap, undemanding entertainment. This leaves them ill-informed and gullible, easy pray for populists, propagandists and peddlers of conspiracy theories. Sorry if this comes across as an elitist view.
    Though the curious thing is that, for a while at least, it was possible to have both- popular seriousness done properly. The glory days of News at Ten, say. Or when Radio Yourtown had a fully staffed newsroom. Or early Channel 4- a commercial station that could run a non commercial schedule.

    But it did depend on mass media making big profits, and their being regulated into recycling a large chunk of those profits into unprofitable shows.

    Without the superstructure, it doesn't work.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,492
    biggles said:

    Even if there is polling to show that (I’ve not seen any but it might be there), politicians (I’m looking at Starmer) need to actually lead. A section of the public have become neo-religious nutters who think if they flagellate themselves they can reverse the apocalypse. And bizarrely, that is the right word because many of them seem to think climate change will destroy life on earth despite none of the models showing that even in the worst case 3/4 degree increase scenarios, where technology doesn’t advance and we all go back to burning coal.

    I despair. I’ve worked on some of the science here and I used to spend my days trying to convince people climate change was an issue and dispelling nonsense like the “hockey stick” graph. Now, because I will not get behind apocalyptic non-scientific forecasts or accept that whether the U.K. bans petrol in 2030 or 2035 will make the slightest difference, I get called the “denier”.

    The world has been infantilised. People need to understand that a mix of declared policies and technology change means we’ve more or less fixed the problem. We’ve won. The global temperature will rise by 2-2.5 degrees and some islands will need to be relocated while some agriculture changes. But we’ve done it.

    Starmer and his generation get to declare victory.
    It's peculiar.

    For all of the world's horrors, by any objective measure, there has actually never been a better time to be alive. But, what proportion of the world's population believe that? I'd be surprised if it was even as high as 5%.
  • DavidL said:

    I've got to do a trip from Dundee to Stirling tomorrow for a deferred sentence and a jury decision. Not looking forward to it especially.
    Don't do it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,816
    edited October 2023
    Biden to deliver an address to the nation.

    https://x.com/potus/status/1715091192965165484

    Hamas’s terrorist attacks against Israel.
    The need for humanitarian assistance in Gaza.
    Russia’s ongoing brutal war against Ukraine.

    We are at a global inflection point that is bigger than party or politics.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    Sean_F said:

    It's peculiar.

    For all of the world's horrors, by any objective measure, there has actually never been a better time to be alive. But, what proportion of the world's population believe that? I'd be surprised if it was even as high as 5%.
    Yes. No one seems to want to understand that we’re doing ok.
  • Does anyone know what time we are expecting the results?

    Thanks!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,156
    I've been idly looking at the profit margins of various luxury goods companies in a, so far futile, attempt to find a luxury goods* company with a higher profit margin than Games Workshop (>40% in their most recent quarter) and this evening, after yet another perfume ad, I alighted on the latest results for L'Oreal. A very healthy profit margin of ~20%, but what stood out is that they spend almost one-third of their revenue on advertising and promotion. A third! It's more than they spend on the products that they sell themselves. ~€32.3bn in revenue created by ~€10.6bn in advertising spend.

    * Besides the obvious, like a diamond or gold miner.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,492
    biggles said:

    Yes. No one seems to want to understand that we’re doing ok.
    The telling statistic is that when I was born, in 1967, 55% of the world lived in absolute poverty (itself, a big improvement on 100 years previously). Now, the proportion is 8%.
  • Look I love light blue(s) but even I wouldn't wear that suit.
    Andy Griffith used to do VERY well in court(s) wearing a light blue seersucker suit.

    On TV anyway, in Atlanta. The seersucker being a quasi-revered Southern Institution.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,172

    Don't do it.
    The wheels of justice require it. I will be going pretty steadily, I assure you.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794
    algarkirk said:

    The BBC is being held to a ludicrously high standard and at the same time is being subjected to massive exaggeration and distortion. It is imperfect; perhaps in the context of the Middle East it could be described as the least imperfect actor on the entire scene. Are there any better candidates for that remarkable accolade?
    Sorry this is total bollocks, when people question the licence fee we are constantly told the bbc is world class and totally impartial. When it is shown they are biassed slithey toads then we are told they are being held to an impossibly high standards. Pick one or the other but dont whinge when people point out the bbc are mostly staffed by people who can be described by words that rhyme with punts
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,784
    Sean_F said:

    It's peculiar.

    For all of the world's horrors, by any objective measure, there has actually never been a better time to be alive. But, what proportion of the world's population believe that? I'd be surprised if it was even as high as 5%.
    I do, we are a lucky generation. Every so often I read Hans Rosling and remind myself how lucky I am.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Factfulness:_Ten_Reasons_We're_Wrong_About_the_World_–_and_Why_Things_Are_Better_Than_You_Think
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    DavidL said:

    "The Palestinian ministry of health says six people have been killed in clashes with the Israeli military in Nur Shams refugee in the occupied West Bank - the military says it used an aircraft to strike a "terrorist squad"


    "Hamas say 400,000 of the 1.1 million people who call northern Gaza home headed south down the Salah al-Din Road in the last 48 hours, following Israel's order to leave."

    How hard did you try? This took under a minute.
    DavidL said:

    "The Palestinian ministry of health says six people have been killed in clashes with the Israeli military in Nur Shams refugee in the occupied West Bank - the military says it used an aircraft to strike a "terrorist squad"


    "Hamas say 400,000 of the 1.1 million people who call northern Gaza home headed south down the Salah al-Din Road in the last 48 hours, following Israel's order to leave."

    How hard did you try? This took under a minute.
    There is a point on both sides here, but anyway, to me when the BBC begin with 'Hamas say....' it is obvious that the BBC is not asserting the reliability of the following sentence; this compares with how, for example, they might quote the sayings of the OBR.

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,693

    We really need to talk about the Reform candidate's suit.



    https://twitter.com/reformparty_uk/status/1714971740793672161

    I once saw a pianist in concert doing a concerto, followed by the piano solo of Rhapsody in Blue after the interval. He changed from dinner jacket to roughly that suit for the latter. No tie, though.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,793

    Right so he'll be stopping expansion of coal power stations in India or China. He might as well sit in front of the North and give orders to the waves like a Canute.

    We have the wrong green crap
    You keep doing bad things because you can't stop others doing bad things? Hmm.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,784
    biggles said:

    Yes. No one seems to want to understand that we’re doing ok.
    Thats because you spent years scaring the shit out of people and wont challenge the ultra shit scarers when they are wrong.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,259
    DavidL said:

    I've got to do a trip from Dundee to Stirling tomorrow for a deferred sentence and a jury decision. Not looking forward to it especially.
    It's a direct train and only about a hour long. It's got WiFi. If you avoid rush hour should be OK?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,693
    Polls closed!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,784
    kinabalu said:

    You keep doing bad things because you can't stop others doing bad things? Hmm.
    Speak for yourself. The UK has done most of the good things.

    We need to move on to the next set of priorities.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    Sean_F said:

    The telling statistic is that when I was born, in 1967, 55% of the world lived in absolute poverty (itself, a big improvement on 100 years previously). Now, the proportion is 8%.
    One of the issues is that if they accepted that improvement, they would also have to see that it was driven by democracy, open markets, and technology. The spreading of westernised civilisation, in fact. But that can’t be right as all those things are imperialist….
This discussion has been closed.