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Thistle do very nicely for Starmer and the Union – politicalbetting.com
Thistle do nicely for Starmer and the Union – politicalbetting.com
I make this a 20.35% SNP to Lab swing. https://t.co/kbT1MNvoRW
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How many seats does +30pts give Labour on the Britain.Elects scale.
My logic was sound.
https://x.com/time/status/1709901589689901087
@ElectionMapsUK
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2m
🚨 *JUST FOR FUN ALARM* 🚨
How Scotland would vote if the Rutherglen & Hamilton West By-Election swing was repeated across the country:
LAB: 38 (+37)
SNP: 7 (-41)
CON: 7 (+1)
LDM: 5 (+3)
Changes w/ GE2019 Notional."
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1710097379569893680
If there is a risk of a wipeout, it depends on how resilient the Tory vote is in the borders/NE. I think the SNP could make some gains there even as the cities go red.
Night all
I think this is the end of the Nats for a decade. No indyref2 til the late 2030s. Maybe never
2014 was the big chance, in retrospect
Not necessarily saying that will follow in a GE, just makes SNP-Con seats tricky to read.
"Wings Over Scotland | Getting left behind" https://wingsoverscotland.com/getting-left-behind/
Hmmm.
Sunak’s ‘spiteful’ sale of land intended for HS2 dashes hopes of revival
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/oct/05/sunaks-spiteful-sale-of-land-intended-for-hs2-dashes-hopes-of-revival
..Dennis said: “I knew Sunak would cancel HS2 to Manchester but I didn’t expect him to be so spiteful that he would authorise the sell-off of land on the route. There are barely any votes in lifting the safeguarding. It’s pure salting the earth to make it extremely hard for Labour to build it.
“What will happen now is essentially a fire sale. The land is not going to be returned to nature. It’s going to be developed on. That will make it much more expensive and much more complex should any future government want to build it.”
Rotheram said: “After weeks of uncertainty and confusion, Rishi Sunak’s lifting of the HS2 safeguarding order means that he has not only cancelled HS2 but he’s killed it stone dead. The consequences of this decision will tie any future government’s hands and make the delivery of HS2 for the north all but impossible.
“The Liverpool city region was set to benefit from a £15bn economic boost from the delivery of HS2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail in full. Almost overnight, the prime minister has robbed us of that chance to grow and develop our economy. He has turned the northern powerhouse into the northern powerless with this latest act of a long line of pronouncements that are holding the north down, not levelling us up.”..
One of the most idiotic self-inflicted wounds in UK political history: in a by-election that might never have been held if the SNP hadn't campaigned for it, Yousaf suffers crushing defeat that calls his future as leader into question -
https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2023/10/one-of-most-idiotic-self-inflicted.html
2:14 AM · Oct 6, 2023"
https://twitter.com/JamesKelly/status/1710101219270623243
This is a smashing, a drubbing, a great big fuck you to the SNP.
We were a few percentage points from a Corbyn minority government dependent on the SNP. He would willingly have conceded another referendum.
Because Con voters aren't going to be tactically voting Lab in seats which are SNP/Con battles with Lab nowhere.
We were days away from the 300-year-old UK, our beloved if rather ramshackle nation, breaking up. Bad
Now it seems a decidedly distant prospect. I can see the SNP losing control of Holyrood, very easily, not just Scotland at Westminster
Lab 45 (=)
Con 24 (=)
LD 11 (=)
Ref 8 (=)
Grn 7 (=)
Best PM:
Starmer 34 (change not reported)
Sunak 25 (+3)
Do leaders have a clear plan?
Sunak: Yes 21, No 61
Starmer: Yes 22, No 49
Scrapping Northern leg of HS2:
Support 37
Oppose 40
Highest support in Midlands (44)
Lowest support in North (29)
The SNP, inter alia, are a cautionary tale of what happens to a left wing party that gets consumed by identity politics and Wokeness. In the end the voters get sick of it and dump you
I fully expect Labour to follow the SNP’s example when they reach power. They too are drenched in The Woke
SNP on 7 seats would end independence for a very long time, if ever
Not laughing now are we Nicola
Small and perhaps trivial detail, but the brand kremlinologist in me observes that Britain is quite fucked at present.
Labour said they’d smash the SNP. Labour smashed the SNP.
Cojones.
Fair play.
That said, I would caution reading too deeply into these entrails. It's a by-election where the previous incumbent was pretty reviled. On the other hand, Union victories have been so rare in Scotland for so long so no wonder people are enjoying the moment (myself included).
Given an hour I could do something really cool. And I’m an amateur. It’s therefore clear that no one in HMGovernment is aware of AI, or if they are they don’t know how to use it
Which is an obvious line for them, but especially bad for Sunak as the corollary is reminding people that no one actually elected him.
It's the harbinger of what is to come. An outright Labour majority.
Bet accordingly.
All power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
The next General Election is going to bring about a generational sea-change.
The Tories are tired, clueless and corrupt and deserve to lose
But that doesn’t mean I’m wrong about the SNP. One of the main reasons for their downfall is their obsession with identity politics and Wokeness, especially the GRR stuff in their case
The country will move on socially, just as it did in 1997 and unless you move with it, you will be left behind.
p.s. the main issue with the SNP wasn't that. It was that she and her hubby had their hands in the till (allegedly).
It alienated voters and activists and it also led them to choose the wrong leader, because Forbes is not Woke, and useles Yousaf IS
The general point is not your extrapolation. It's that all power corrupts absolutely, whether left or right. Once you start taking people for granted on any and everything, then in a democracy defeat is inevitable.
We are witnessing a sea-change, as occurred in 1979 and 1997. Enjoy the ride folks. The next GE will be a fun night.
Kudos to you.
This is what is happening to the Tories. And will result in similar electoral misfortune.
Labour publicly learnt a lesson from the SNP's problems with the GRR Bill and made a change to their stated policy. That I think is one of Starmer's strengths. He doesn't simply say he will learn lessons. He actually shows this. It has been criticised as dreary triangulation by some or breaking promises by others. And there is a risk that he looks untrustworthy. But his willingness to change tack, say so publicly and say why is potentially heartening.
And @Heathener, women's rights are not inconsequential or irrelevant. You sound very gammon-like saying stuff like that. Much like the SNP's counsel this week saying that women's rights to associate freely with other women was "trivial". That was the word used. Trivial. With luck the end of the SNP will stop such condescending and offensive rubbish being uttered by them and their fellow travellers.
This is not a victory for the "Anti-Woke", indeed those parties either lost their deposit or didn't stand. This is a massive triumph for Starmer, and one that I got wrong. Well done @Cyclefree.
But the anti-trans element of this is being cut by a very hard left hard feminist core who are actually massively out of touch with young females. Their unholy alliance with right wing reactionaries is significant. Like a lot of hotheads, they are damaging women's rights.
But this is a mostly an irrelevance. The number of trans people is very small. They are usually peaceful people who should be allowed to get on with their lives, especially by those who profess to espouse freedom. Most people in this country either don't know any trans or couldn't really care a less when set aside the things which actually DO matter to their lives. You know, like getting a job, food on the table, or treatment in a hospital.
Bloody men taking women's prizes again!!
Anyway I think the Tories could face something like electoral wipeout next year: 100 seats or so.
They're done. Sunak is not up to it. They think they're salting the earth to make Labour's job more difficult. And they may be. It is appallingly spiteful, damaging and I hope gets legally challenged.
But, above all, they are salting their own reputation - and for a very very long time to come.
God knows what sort of opposition we will get. And what sort of democracy we will be without an effective opposition.
What a time to be alive. Sunak declares “genocide” (sic) on flat earthers by declaring it spherical and the SNP finally encounter Mr Gravity.
See here for Labour's current position:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/24/labour-vows-to-modernise-simplify-and-reform-gender-recognition-act
Mr. Eagles, be careful if he asks you to help him find his wife.
I support Scottish independence, though rightly with no say in the matter, but the SNP are a mess at the moment. I am sure they will be back in an electable state at some point.
There looks to be the sort of backlash against a tired and divided regime north of the border as much as there is south of it. The same is true of the unusual local election results against the Lab in Leicester in May*. Voters have had enough and want change.
*I think Khan will limp home in London like Soulsby did in Leicester as mayor, but losing assembly seats next year for similar reasons.
Keir Starmer fans - please don't gloat.
I think we're past Peak SNP, lads.
Largely on the back of social media posts which appeared to see the seat flooded with SNP activists and staffers attempting a GOTV operation.
The majority of labour posts I saw were people in phone banks, not on the ground.
Previously I have found such an approach intuitive. Not so this time.
Although the one message on social media, well twitter or X or whatever it is now, that was right was how low the turnout was. Around 5PM it was estimated turnout was little more than 15%
How much of the Con to Lab swing is down to that, and how much is it that the Conservatives are really unpopular?
Mind you, without wholesale sackings of senior civil servants it remains possible.
Labour's position on women's right and the Equality Act is better than it was certainly. It needs clarifying in certain respects. There is a worrying silence about single sex services and associations which must be protected, for instance. https://www.cyclefree.co.uk/questions-questions/
It is largely a result of pressure from a lot of Labour women - young women - especially Labour Women's Declaration even though, shamefully, they have not been allowed a stand at the Labour conference. As for what the Tories announced this week, Barclay said that he would ensure single sex wards, a promise made in 2010 but since broken repeatedly. It is entirely supported by Labour. As for the PM's statement in his speech, this was announced by Kay Burley to be in breach of the EA. Which shows only that she - like many others - hasn't the first clue what the Act actually says.
Anyway in a week's time I shall be in Glasgow at a feminist conference. Lots of interesting international speakers. I shall report back!
Edit: why is Vanilla so rubbish!
I think the SNP fightback needs to centre on competent and honest government in Holyrood. Without that the cause of independence cannot win.
On that note, the Conservative tactical vote angle has two weaknesses: 1) Unionist tactical voting existed in 2019. 2) Perhaps Tories also sat on their hands? Or voted Labour for the same reasons English Tories are switching over?
Mike has correctly cautioned about betting on a Labour Overall Majority because of the sheer number of Seats they have to win. If they can pick up a soft twenty or so in Scotland the task appears immeasurably easier.
1.47 on Betfair looks this morning as though it may even be a bit of value.
Very happy to lose my £3 bet. My expectation was not to lose it so decisively though - I thought Labour would probably win it but not by this much.