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Thistle do very nicely for Starmer and the Union – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,114
edited October 2023 in General
Thistle do nicely for Starmer and the Union – politicalbetting.com

I make this a 20.35% SNP to Lab swing. https://t.co/kbT1MNvoRW

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • First like my Twitter follower Michael Shanks.
  • Second and thank god because I was over 200 posts behind on the last one.
  • My puns are equally magnificent and subtle.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,006
    edited October 2023
    Looks like a 20.35% swing from SNP to Lab. The SNP would lose all the seats they're defending against Labour on that swing.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,239
    That's bloody huge.

    How many seats does +30pts give Labour on the Britain.Elects scale.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,279

    Asking for a friend, is it still SNP policy to use the next general election as a de facto independence referendum because I endorse their plan right now.

    Humsa will now declare the SNP winning a single seat will be a mandate for opening independence negotiations with the UK government
  • Farooq said:

    Congrats to CycleFree on being the least terrible at predicting the result.
    We were all very bad, but some us us were less bad than others :lol:

    Look, the value was on the SNP particularly when the YouGov poll came out.

    My logic was sound.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    Ahem


  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,646

    First like my Twitter follower Michael Shanks.

    Is it bad that my first thought was "The guy from Stargate?"
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    Leon said:

    Ahem


    “The new face of Scottish independence”

    https://x.com/time/status/1709901589689901087
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,006
    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    2m
    🚨 *JUST FOR FUN ALARM* 🚨

    How Scotland would vote if the Rutherglen & Hamilton West By-Election swing was repeated across the country:

    LAB: 38 (+37)
    SNP: 7 (-41)
    CON: 7 (+1)
    LDM: 5 (+3)

    Changes w/ GE2019 Notional."

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1710097379569893680
  • viewcode said:

    First like my Twitter follower Michael Shanks.

    Is it bad that my first thought was "The guy from Stargate?"
    No, as a fellow geek it took all my self restraint not to put in a Stargate reference.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,239
    Andy_JS said:

    Looks like a 20.35% swing from SNP to Lab. The SNP would lose all the seats they're defending against Labour on that swing.

    Curtice just said Lab 42 seats SNP 6 on those numbers.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,362
    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    2m
    🚨 *JUST FOR FUN ALARM* 🚨

    How Scotland would vote if the Rutherglen & Hamilton West By-Election swing was repeated across the country:

    LAB: 38 (+37)
    SNP: 7 (-41)
    CON: 7 (+1)
    LDM: 5 (+3)

    Changes w/ GE2019 Notional."

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1710097379569893680

    *Grabs the popcorn*

    If there is a risk of a wipeout, it depends on how resilient the Tory vote is in the borders/NE. I think the SNP could make some gains there even as the cities go red.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    2m
    🚨 *JUST FOR FUN ALARM* 🚨

    How Scotland would vote if the Rutherglen & Hamilton West By-Election swing was repeated across the country:

    LAB: 38 (+37)
    SNP: 7 (-41)
    CON: 7 (+1)
    LDM: 5 (+3)

    Changes w/ GE2019 Notional."

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1710097379569893680

    Looks like Starmer will have reversed 2019 North and South of the border based on the by election result. Yousaf heading for almost as bad a general election as Sunak and Starmer to a clear UK wide Labour majority.

    Night all
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    Leon said:

    Ahem


    Next generation Estate Agent looks more like it now
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557

    Leon said:

    Ahem


    “The new face of Scottish independence”

    https://x.com/time/status/1709901589689901087
    lol

    I think this is the end of the Nats for a decade. No indyref2 til the late 2030s. Maybe never

    2014 was the big chance, in retrospect
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,006
    How long before a Yousaf leadership challenge?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,239
    Eabhal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    2m
    🚨 *JUST FOR FUN ALARM* 🚨

    How Scotland would vote if the Rutherglen & Hamilton West By-Election swing was repeated across the country:

    LAB: 38 (+37)
    SNP: 7 (-41)
    CON: 7 (+1)
    LDM: 5 (+3)

    Changes w/ GE2019 Notional."

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1710097379569893680

    *Grabs the popcorn*

    If there is a risk of a wipeout, it depends on how resilient the Tory vote is in the borders/NE. I think the SNP could make some gains there even as the cities go red.
    Local by-elections showing SNP to any challenger swing at the moment, including Con.

    Not necessarily saying that will follow in a GE, just makes SNP-Con seats tricky to read.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    Time up for Yousaf say Wings

    "Wings Over Scotland | Getting left behind" https://wingsoverscotland.com/getting-left-behind/
  • HYUFD said:

    Time up for Yousaf say Wings

    "Wings Over Scotland | Getting left behind" https://wingsoverscotland.com/getting-left-behind/

    Brutal for Humza because of the mess he inherited that apparently we can't joke about.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    Any sign of @foxy who was betting on a Nat win?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,362
    edited October 2023
    Yousaf says it is Tory tactical voting that won it for Labour.

    Hmmm.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,006
    Pro_Rata said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Looks like a 20.35% swing from SNP to Lab. The SNP would lose all the seats they're defending against Labour on that swing.

    Curtice just said Lab 42 seats SNP 6 on those numbers.
    Those 6 would be defences against the Cons or LDs I think.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,217
    edited October 2023
    Labour have indeed adopted this (true) narrative.

    Sunak’s ‘spiteful’ sale of land intended for HS2 dashes hopes of revival
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/oct/05/sunaks-spiteful-sale-of-land-intended-for-hs2-dashes-hopes-of-revival

    ..Dennis said: “I knew Sunak would cancel HS2 to Manchester but I didn’t expect him to be so spiteful that he would authorise the sell-off of land on the route. There are barely any votes in lifting the safeguarding. It’s pure salting the earth to make it extremely hard for Labour to build it.

    “What will happen now is essentially a fire sale. The land is not going to be returned to nature. It’s going to be developed on. That will make it much more expensive and much more complex should any future government want to build it.”

    Rotheram said: “After weeks of uncertainty and confusion, Rishi Sunak’s lifting of the HS2 safeguarding order means that he has not only cancelled HS2 but he’s killed it stone dead. The consequences of this decision will tie any future government’s hands and make the delivery of HS2 for the north all but impossible.

    “The Liverpool city region was set to benefit from a £15bn economic boost from the delivery of HS2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail in full. Almost overnight, the prime minister has robbed us of that chance to grow and develop our economy. He has turned the northern powerhouse into the northern powerless with this latest act of a long line of pronouncements that are holding the north down, not levelling us up.”..



  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,006
    "@JamesKelly

    One of the most idiotic self-inflicted wounds in UK political history: in a by-election that might never have been held if the SNP hadn't campaigned for it, Yousaf suffers crushing defeat that calls his future as leader into question -

    https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2023/10/one-of-most-idiotic-self-inflicted.html
    2:14 AM · Oct 6, 2023"

    https://twitter.com/JamesKelly/status/1710101219270623243
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,250
    There was a point at which it was rumoured that Labour was on the back foot and even His Holiness John Curtice was taken in.

    This is a smashing, a drubbing, a great big fuck you to the SNP.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,250
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Ahem


    “The new face of Scottish independence”

    https://x.com/time/status/1709901589689901087
    lol

    I think this is the end of the Nats for a decade. No indyref2 til the late 2030s. Maybe never

    2014 was the big chance, in retrospect
    I would rather say 2017.

    We were a few percentage points from a Corbyn minority government dependent on the SNP. He would willingly have conceded another referendum.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,597
    Andy_JS said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Looks like a 20.35% swing from SNP to Lab. The SNP would lose all the seats they're defending against Labour on that swing.

    Curtice just said Lab 42 seats SNP 6 on those numbers.
    Those 6 would be defences against the Cons or LDs I think.
    So it could well be even worse for the SNP.

    Because Con voters aren't going to be tactically voting Lab in seats which are SNP/Con battles with Lab nowhere.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,250
    I’m only sad the SCons still managed to outpoll the SLibDems.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    edited October 2023

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Ahem


    “The new face of Scottish independence”

    https://x.com/time/status/1709901589689901087
    lol

    I think this is the end of the Nats for a decade. No indyref2 til the late 2030s. Maybe never

    2014 was the big chance, in retrospect
    I would rather say 2017.

    We were a few percentage points from a Corbyn minority government dependent on the SNP. He would willingly have conceded another referendum.
    Perhaps. But I’m talking more about an actual vote for Separation. Salmond only lost 55/45 and with another fortnight of campaigning? Who knows….

    We were days away from the 300-year-old UK, our beloved if rather ramshackle nation, breaking up. Bad

    Now it seems a decidedly distant prospect. I can see the SNP losing control of Holyrood, very easily, not just Scotland at Westminster
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,597
    YOUGOV POLL (The Times) - Oct 4/5 (change vs Sep 26/27)

    Lab 45 (=)
    Con 24 (=)
    LD 11 (=)
    Ref 8 (=)
    Grn 7 (=)

    Best PM:

    Starmer 34 (change not reported)
    Sunak 25 (+3)

    Do leaders have a clear plan?

    Sunak: Yes 21, No 61
    Starmer: Yes 22, No 49

    Scrapping Northern leg of HS2:

    Support 37
    Oppose 40

    Highest support in Midlands (44)
    Lowest support in North (29)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    There’s a concealed warning here for Labour. Which they won’t heed in their justified glee over a triumphant victory

    The SNP, inter alia, are a cautionary tale of what happens to a left wing party that gets consumed by identity politics and Wokeness. In the end the voters get sick of it and dump you

    I fully expect Labour to follow the SNP’s example when they reach power. They too are drenched in The Woke
  • Many congratulations to labour on a significant win

    SNP on 7 seats would end independence for a very long time, if ever

    Not laughing now are we Nicola
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,250

    Many congratulations to labour on a significant win

    SNP on 7 seats would end independence for a very long time, if ever

    Not laughing now are we Nicola

    What’s Nicola got to do with it.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,250
    edited October 2023
    I know it was mentioned already, but the “Network North” logo looks like something from a Year 4 school project.

    Small and perhaps trivial detail, but the brand kremlinologist in me observes that Britain is quite fucked at present.
  • Leon said:

    There’s a concealed warning here for Labour. Which they won’t heed in their justified glee over a triumphant victory

    The SNP, inter alia, are a cautionary tale of what happens to a left wing party that gets consumed by identity politics and Wokeness. In the end the voters get sick of it and dump you

    I fully expect Labour to follow the SNP’s example when they reach power. They too are drenched in The Woke

    Leaving aside the question of woke, or even whether the SNP is a left-wing party, surely the real danger for Labour is getting carried away by voters being turned off by the antics of the previous MP. Of course, on the other hand, rather than just individual disgraced MPs, voters might consider both the SNP and Conservatives to be disgraced parties.
  • Blimey. It's 4am. How did that happen?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,304
    Glad to see the end of the hideous “expectations management”.

    Labour said they’d smash the SNP. Labour smashed the SNP.

    Cojones.

    Fair play.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557

    I know it was mentioned already, but the “Network North” logo looks like something from a Year 4 school project.

    Small and perhaps trivial detail, but the brand kremlinologist in me observes that Britain is quite fucked at present.

    It’s quite bizarre because DALLE-2 could do a better graphic in 30 seconds. Indeed I might have a go
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 876

    Blimey. It's 4am. How did that happen?

    A new dawn has broken, has it not?
    This news doesn't quite make having to wake up at 4 to catch a train to Edinburgh worth it but it is an undeniable silver lining.

    That said, I would caution reading too deeply into these entrails. It's a by-election where the previous incumbent was pretty reviled. On the other hand, Union victories have been so rare in Scotland for so long so no wonder people are enjoying the moment (myself included).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    Done by Bing in 20 seconds


  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    This took another minute




    Given an hour I could do something really cool. And I’m an amateur. It’s therefore clear that no one in HMGovernment is aware of AI, or if they are they don’t know how to use it
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,006
    edited October 2023
    Over to Mid Beds and Tamworth next. Can Starmer make it a hat trick?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    After this, Labour is going to be shouting “General Election now” from every rooftop.

    Which is an obvious line for them, but especially bad for Sunak as the corollary is reminding people that no one actually elected him.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083
    Pretty seismic result. Possibly the most significant by-election result of the last decade, or more.

    It's the harbinger of what is to come. An outright Labour majority.

    Bet accordingly.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,362
    Leon said:

    Done by Bing in 20 seconds


    Picking up that you're mad into aliens
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083
    edited October 2023
    Leon said:

    There’s a concealed warning here for Labour. Which they won’t heed in their justified glee over a triumphant victory

    The SNP, inter alia, are a cautionary tale of what happens to a left wing party that gets consumed by identity politics and Wokeness. In the end the voters get sick of it and dump you

    I fully expect Labour to follow the SNP’s example when they reach power. They too are drenched in The Woke

    No it isn't. Your obsession with anti-wokery makes you blinkered to the real lesson, whether left or right:

    All power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083
    MikeL said:

    YOUGOV POLL (The Times) - Oct 4/5 (change vs Sep 26/27)

    Lab 45 (=)
    Con 24 (=)
    LD 11 (=)
    Ref 8 (=)
    Grn 7 (=)

    Best PM:

    Starmer 34 (change not reported)
    Sunak 25 (+3)

    Do leaders have a clear plan?

    Sunak: Yes 21, No 61
    Starmer: Yes 22, No 49

    Scrapping Northern leg of HS2:

    Support 37
    Oppose 40

    Highest support in Midlands (44)
    Lowest support in North (29)

    So on top of a storming by-election victory north of the border, the tory party conference bounce is a Labour one: a 21% lead.

    The next General Election is going to bring about a generational sea-change.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a concealed warning here for Labour. Which they won’t heed in their justified glee over a triumphant victory

    The SNP, inter alia, are a cautionary tale of what happens to a left wing party that gets consumed by identity politics and Wokeness. In the end the voters get sick of it and dump you

    I fully expect Labour to follow the SNP’s example when they reach power. They too are drenched in The Woke

    No it isn't. Your obsession with anti-wokery makes you blinkered to the real lesson, whether left or right:

    All power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.

    Er, what? I agree with you that Labour are set for an epochal victory. The only obstacle to that was Scotland, potentially. But it now looks like that won’t be a problem

    The Tories are tired, clueless and corrupt and deserve to lose

    But that doesn’t mean I’m wrong about the SNP. One of the main reasons for their downfall is their obsession with identity politics and Wokeness, especially the GRR stuff in their case
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083
    edited October 2023
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a concealed warning here for Labour. Which they won’t heed in their justified glee over a triumphant victory

    The SNP, inter alia, are a cautionary tale of what happens to a left wing party that gets consumed by identity politics and Wokeness. In the end the voters get sick of it and dump you

    I fully expect Labour to follow the SNP’s example when they reach power. They too are drenched in The Woke

    No it isn't. Your obsession with anti-wokery makes you blinkered to the real lesson, whether left or right:

    All power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.

    Er, what? I agree with you that Labour are set for an epochal victory. The only obstacle to that was Scotland, potentially. But it now looks like that won’t be a problem

    The Tories are tired, clueless and corrupt and deserve to lose

    But that doesn’t mean I’m wrong about the SNP. One of the main reasons for their downfall is their obsession with identity politics and Wokeness, especially the GRR stuff in their case
    No you are wrong about what you and the fading old boomers call 'wokeness.'

    The country will move on socially, just as it did in 1997 and unless you move with it, you will be left behind.

    p.s. the main issue with the SNP wasn't that. It was that she and her hubby had their hands in the till (allegedly).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    edited October 2023
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a concealed warning here for Labour. Which they won’t heed in their justified glee over a triumphant victory

    The SNP, inter alia, are a cautionary tale of what happens to a left wing party that gets consumed by identity politics and Wokeness. In the end the voters get sick of it and dump you

    I fully expect Labour to follow the SNP’s example when they reach power. They too are drenched in The Woke

    No it isn't. Your obsession with anti-wokery makes you blinkered to the real lesson, whether left or right:

    All power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.

    Er, what? I agree with you that Labour are set for an epochal victory. The only obstacle to that was Scotland, potentially. But it now looks like that won’t be a problem

    The Tories are tired, clueless and corrupt and deserve to lose

    But that doesn’t mean I’m wrong about the SNP. One of the main reasons for their downfall is their obsession with identity politics and Wokeness, especially the GRR stuff in their case
    No you are wrong about what you and the fading old boomers call 'wokeness.'

    The country will move on socially, just as it did in 1997 and unless you move with it, you will be left behind.

    p.s. the main issue with the SNP wasn't that. It was that she and her hubby had their hands in the till (allegedly).
    No, the gender/Woke stuff was a major drag

    It alienated voters and activists and it also led them to choose the wrong leader, because Forbes is not Woke, and useles Yousaf IS
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,217
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a concealed warning here for Labour. Which they won’t heed in their justified glee over a triumphant victory

    The SNP, inter alia, are a cautionary tale of what happens to a left wing party that gets consumed by identity politics and Wokeness. In the end the voters get sick of it and dump you

    I fully expect Labour to follow the SNP’s example when they reach power. They too are drenched in The Woke

    No it isn't. Your obsession with anti-wokery makes you blinkered to the real lesson, whether left or right:

    All power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.

    I feel I must point out that it's "all power tends to corrupt.."
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083
    edited October 2023
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    There’s a concealed warning here for Labour. Which they won’t heed in their justified glee over a triumphant victory

    The SNP, inter alia, are a cautionary tale of what happens to a left wing party that gets consumed by identity politics and Wokeness. In the end the voters get sick of it and dump you

    I fully expect Labour to follow the SNP’s example when they reach power. They too are drenched in The Woke

    No it isn't. Your obsession with anti-wokery makes you blinkered to the real lesson, whether left or right:

    All power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.

    Er, what? I agree with you that Labour are set for an epochal victory. The only obstacle to that was Scotland, potentially. But it now looks like that won’t be a problem

    The Tories are tired, clueless and corrupt and deserve to lose

    But that doesn’t mean I’m wrong about the SNP. One of the main reasons for their downfall is their obsession with identity politics and Wokeness, especially the GRR stuff in their case
    No you are wrong about what you and the fading old boomers call 'wokeness.'

    The country will move on socially, just as it did in 1997 and unless you move with it, you will be left behind.

    p.s. the main issue with the SNP wasn't that. It was that she and her hubby had their hands in the till (allegedly).
    No, the gender/Woke stuff was a major drag
    The point is that you are fairly obsessed, like a lot of your generation, with things which to the rest of us are at best inconsequential and mostly irrelevant.

    The general point is not your extrapolation. It's that all power corrupts absolutely, whether left or right. Once you start taking people for granted on any and everything, then in a democracy defeat is inevitable.

    We are witnessing a sea-change, as occurred in 1979 and 1997. Enjoy the ride folks. The next GE will be a fun night.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083
    edited October 2023
    p.s. it's a major failing of boomers that myopia sets in. They start only seeing the world through a prism of 'anti-wokery'. Eventually, if they're not careful, they end up going the way of Laurence Fox.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083
    I challenge you @Leon to reinvent yourself, as you have done more than once. Instead of raging against the dying of the light, come on board. Embrace change. Be young again. You know you have it in you.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083
    edited October 2023
    Cyclefree said:

    So do I get a prize for being the closest to the actual result?

    Only if I have 2nd prize please :)

    Kudos to you.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,217
    Cyclefree said:

    So do I get a prize for being the closest to the actual result?

    Yes, a like.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Big big win for Labour no doubt about it. Starmer comfortably heading to No 10
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690

    Leon said:

    Ahem


    “The new face of Scottish independence”

    https://x.com/time/status/1709901589689901087
    It's not been a good couple of months for those who have featured on Time covers, whether Yousaf, Merkel, Trump or Musk
  • Leon said:

    Any sign of @foxy who was betting on a Nat win?

    I think only people who put up their own prediction are allowed to ask that.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    edited October 2023
    Lots of reasons for the SNP to lose: financial chicanery, the Calmac ferries, really poor legislation - much of which has had to be withdrawn or challenged, waste of money, dancing to the tune of monomaniac lobbyists, failure to make good on promises, in-fighting, arrogance.

    This is what is happening to the Tories. And will result in similar electoral misfortune.

    Labour publicly learnt a lesson from the SNP's problems with the GRR Bill and made a change to their stated policy. That I think is one of Starmer's strengths. He doesn't simply say he will learn lessons. He actually shows this. It has been criticised as dreary triangulation by some or breaking promises by others. And there is a risk that he looks untrustworthy. But his willingness to change tack, say so publicly and say why is potentially heartening.

    And @Heathener, women's rights are not inconsequential or irrelevant. You sound very gammon-like saying stuff like that. Much like the SNP's counsel this week saying that women's rights to associate freely with other women was "trivial". That was the word used. Trivial. With luck the end of the SNP will stop such condescending and offensive rubbish being uttered by them and their fellow travellers.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    Leon said:

    There’s a concealed warning here for Labour. Which they won’t heed in their justified glee over a triumphant victory

    The SNP, inter alia, are a cautionary tale of what happens to a left wing party that gets consumed by identity politics and Wokeness. In the end the voters get sick of it and dump you

    I fully expect Labour to follow the SNP’s example when they reach power. They too are drenched in The Woke

    Nah. SLAB (and indeed some SCON) voted for the Gender Rights Bill in Holyrood, indeed SLAB MSPs unanimously voted for it. Last week Con speaker after Con Speaker tried to depict Lab as "Woke", including some major Transphobia from Sunak himself.

    This is not a victory for the "Anti-Woke", indeed those parties either lost their deposit or didn't stand. This is a massive triumph for Starmer, and one that I got wrong. Well done @Cyclefree.



  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083
    edited October 2023
    Cyclefree said:



    And @Heathener, women's rights are not inconsequential or irrelevant. .

    Thanks for the lecture. As a woman, I don't think they are inconsequential or irrelevant. I think I'm correct in saying you have a legal background so you should also know better than to misquote. I wrote to Leon that, 'The point is that you are fairly obsessed, like a lot of your generation, with things which to the rest of us are at best inconsequential and mostly irrelevant.'

    But the anti-trans element of this is being cut by a very hard left hard feminist core who are actually massively out of touch with young females. Their unholy alliance with right wing reactionaries is significant. Like a lot of hotheads, they are damaging women's rights.

    But this is a mostly an irrelevance. The number of trans people is very small. They are usually peaceful people who should be allowed to get on with their lives, especially by those who profess to espouse freedom. Most people in this country either don't know any trans or couldn't really care a less when set aside the things which actually DO matter to their lives. You know, like getting a job, food on the table, or treatment in a hospital.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Looks like Mick Pork’s “getting out the vote” operation finally paid off!

    What a time to be alive. Sunak declares “genocide” (sic) on flat earthers by declaring it spherical and the SNP finally encounter Mr Gravity.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356
    Cyclefree said:

    Lots of reasons for the SNP to lose: financial chicanery, the Calmac ferries, really poor legislation - much of which has had to be withdrawn or challenged, waste of money, dancing to the tune of monomaniac lobbyists, failure to make good on promises, in-fighting, arrogance.

    This is what is happening to the Tories. And will result in similar electoral misfortune.

    Labour publicly learnt a lesson from the SNP's problems with the GRR Bill and made a change to their stated policy. That I think is one of Starmer's strengths. He doesn't simply say he will learn lessons. He actually shows this. It has been criticised as dreary triangulation by some or breaking promises by others. And there is a risk that he looks untrustworthy. But his willingness to change tack, say so publicly and say why is potentially heartening.

    And @Heathener, women's rights are not inconsequential or irrelevant. You sound very gammon-like saying stuff like that. Much like the SNP's counsel this week saying that women's rights to associate freely with other women was "trivial". That was the word used. Trivial. With luck the end of the SNP will stop such condescending and offensive rubbish being uttered by them and their fellow travellers.

    Yes, I think Starmers policy on Trans rights is a well balanced one on a very contentious issue that respects sex-based rights but avoids the repellent Trans-phobia on display last week. It is where I am on the issue, and it is also a position that most of the country can live with too.

    See here for Labour's current position:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/24/labour-vows-to-modernise-simplify-and-reform-gender-recognition-act
  • So after chapping (according to them) thousands of doors, having dozens of southern Lab MPs press the Rutherglen flesh, unleashing the 20 watt Starmer charisma and benefitting from several thousand tactical Tory votes, SLab received fewer votes in this constituency than they did in every election this century, including the two they lost? I guess it indicates the lukewarm ceiling of Labour support in Scotland. The more interesting questions are how many indy/SNP supporters sat on their hands, and if/when they might stop doing so.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Eagles, be careful if he asks you to help him find his wife.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Which current Scottish MPs would lose their seats to Labour on this sort of swing?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    Just flew a seaplane through a mini typhoon. Interesting
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356

    So after chapping (according to them) thousands of doors, having dozens of southern Lab MPs press the Rutherglen flesh, unleashing the 20 watt Starmer charisma and benefitting from several thousand tactical Tory votes, SLab received fewer votes in this constituency than they did in every election this century, including the two they lost? I guess it indicates the lukewarm ceiling of Labour support in Scotland. The more interesting questions are how many indy/SNP supporters sat on their hands, and if/when they might stop doing so.

    Bit churlish TUD. Byelections generally get a lower turnout than GE, and while I agree that they cannot be generalised too far, this is a triumph for Starmer.

    I support Scottish independence, though rightly with no say in the matter, but the SNP are a mess at the moment. I am sure they will be back in an electable state at some point.

    There looks to be the sort of backlash against a tired and divided regime north of the border as much as there is south of it. The same is true of the unusual local election results against the Lab in Leicester in May*. Voters have had enough and want change.

    *I think Khan will limp home in London like Soulsby did in Leicester as mayor, but losing assembly seats next year for similar reasons.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139
    Congrats to the new MP for Rutherglen. May he serve his constituency well.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028

    So after chapping (according to them) thousands of doors, having dozens of southern Lab MPs press the Rutherglen flesh, unleashing the 20 watt Starmer charisma and benefitting from several thousand tactical Tory votes, SLab received fewer votes in this constituency than they did in every election this century, including the two they lost? I guess it indicates the lukewarm ceiling of Labour support in Scotland. The more interesting questions are how many indy/SNP supporters sat on their hands, and if/when they might stop doing so.

    Or it suggests that the voters of Rutherglen, barely more than a third of whom turned out, are fed up with all politicians.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    On topic

    Keir Starmer fans - please don't gloat.
  • Foxy said:

    So after chapping (according to them) thousands of doors, having dozens of southern Lab MPs press the Rutherglen flesh, unleashing the 20 watt Starmer charisma and benefitting from several thousand tactical Tory votes, SLab received fewer votes in this constituency than they did in every election this century, including the two they lost? I guess it indicates the lukewarm ceiling of Labour support in Scotland. The more interesting questions are how many indy/SNP supporters sat on their hands, and if/when they might stop doing so.

    Bit churlish TUD. Byelections generally get a lower turnout than GE, and while I agree that they cannot be generalised too far, this is a triumph for Starmer.

    I support Scottish independence, though rightly with no say in the matter, but the SNP are a mess at the moment. I am sure they will be back in an electable state at some point.

    There looks to be the sort of backlash against a tired and divided regime north of the border as much as there is south of it. The same is true of the unusual local election results against the Lab in Leicester in May*. Voters have had enough and want change.

    *I think Khan will limp home in London like Soulsby did in Leicester as mayor, but losing assembly seats next year for similar reasons.

    Would it be churlish to enquire as to the nature of the change that's being offered by Starwar, or is it just down to the colour of the rosette?
  • What a trouncing. People's arses must be making buttons at SNP HQ today.

    I think we're past Peak SNP, lads.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,100
    edited October 2023

    Leon said:

    Any sign of @foxy who was betting on a Nat win?

    I think only people who put up their own prediction are allowed to ask that.
    I thought the SNP would hold, just.

    Largely on the back of social media posts which appeared to see the seat flooded with SNP activists and staffers attempting a GOTV operation.

    The majority of labour posts I saw were people in phone banks, not on the ground.

    Previously I have found such an approach intuitive. Not so this time.

    Although the one message on social media, well twitter or X or whatever it is now, that was right was how low the turnout was. Around 5PM it was estimated turnout was little more than 15%
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028

    Foxy said:

    So after chapping (according to them) thousands of doors, having dozens of southern Lab MPs press the Rutherglen flesh, unleashing the 20 watt Starmer charisma and benefitting from several thousand tactical Tory votes, SLab received fewer votes in this constituency than they did in every election this century, including the two they lost? I guess it indicates the lukewarm ceiling of Labour support in Scotland. The more interesting questions are how many indy/SNP supporters sat on their hands, and if/when they might stop doing so.

    Bit churlish TUD. Byelections generally get a lower turnout than GE, and while I agree that they cannot be generalised too far, this is a triumph for Starmer.

    I support Scottish independence, though rightly with no say in the matter, but the SNP are a mess at the moment. I am sure they will be back in an electable state at some point.

    There looks to be the sort of backlash against a tired and divided regime north of the border as much as there is south of it. The same is true of the unusual local election results against the Lab in Leicester in May*. Voters have had enough and want change.

    *I think Khan will limp home in London like Soulsby did in Leicester as mayor, but losing assembly seats next year for similar reasons.

    Would it be churlish to enquire as to the nature of the change that's being offered by Starwar, or is it just down to the colour of the rosette?
    Well, as Sunak has shown it might be a tad unwise to discuss it at the moment.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,307
    Cyclefree said:

    Lots of reasons for the SNP to lose: financial chicanery, the Calmac ferries, really poor legislation - much of which has had to be withdrawn or challenged, waste of money, dancing to the tune of monomaniac lobbyists, failure to make good on promises, in-fighting, arrogance.

    This is what is happening to the Tories. And will result in similar electoral misfortune.

    Labour publicly learnt a lesson from the SNP's problems with the GRR Bill and made a change to their stated policy. That I think is one of Starmer's strengths. He doesn't simply say he will learn lessons. He actually shows this. It has been criticised as dreary triangulation by some or breaking promises by others. And there is a risk that he looks untrustworthy. But his willingness to change tack, say so publicly and say why is potentially heartening.

    And @Heathener, women's rights are not inconsequential or irrelevant. You sound very gammon-like saying stuff like that. Much like the SNP's counsel this week saying that women's rights to associate freely with other women was "trivial". That was the word used. Trivial. With luck the end of the SNP will stop such condescending and offensive rubbish being uttered by them and their fellow travellers.

    Yes, I’m also gradually warming to SKS, though I’m still some way off being a ‘fan’. He should offer a substantive and much-needed improvement in the standard of governance across the UK.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    edited October 2023
    Excellent result for the Union and a very good result for Starmer. It makes me more confident that Labour will win enough seats in Scotland to have an overall majority. I think some on here are overplaying Tory losses but with this sort of Scottish bonus that will not matter.
  • So, there's talk of "unionist tactical voting".

    How much of the Con to Lab swing is down to that, and how much is it that the Conservatives are really unpopular?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028

    Cyclefree said:

    Lots of reasons for the SNP to lose: financial chicanery, the Calmac ferries, really poor legislation - much of which has had to be withdrawn or challenged, waste of money, dancing to the tune of monomaniac lobbyists, failure to make good on promises, in-fighting, arrogance.

    This is what is happening to the Tories. And will result in similar electoral misfortune.

    Labour publicly learnt a lesson from the SNP's problems with the GRR Bill and made a change to their stated policy. That I think is one of Starmer's strengths. He doesn't simply say he will learn lessons. He actually shows this. It has been criticised as dreary triangulation by some or breaking promises by others. And there is a risk that he looks untrustworthy. But his willingness to change tack, say so publicly and say why is potentially heartening.

    And @Heathener, women's rights are not inconsequential or irrelevant. You sound very gammon-like saying stuff like that. Much like the SNP's counsel this week saying that women's rights to associate freely with other women was "trivial". That was the word used. Trivial. With luck the end of the SNP will stop such condescending and offensive rubbish being uttered by them and their fellow travellers.

    Yes, I’m also gradually warming to SKS, though I’m still some way off being a ‘fan’. He should offer a substantive and much-needed improvement in the standard of governance across the UK.
    He'll have to work damned hard to lower it further.

    Mind you, without wholesale sackings of senior civil servants it remains possible.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Lots of reasons for the SNP to lose: financial chicanery, the Calmac ferries, really poor legislation - much of which has had to be withdrawn or challenged, waste of money, dancing to the tune of monomaniac lobbyists, failure to make good on promises, in-fighting, arrogance.

    This is what is happening to the Tories. And will result in similar electoral misfortune.

    Labour publicly learnt a lesson from the SNP's problems with the GRR Bill and made a change to their stated policy. That I think is one of Starmer's strengths. He doesn't simply say he will learn lessons. He actually shows this. It has been criticised as dreary triangulation by some or breaking promises by others. And there is a risk that he looks untrustworthy. But his willingness to change tack, say so publicly and say why is potentially heartening.

    And @Heathener, women's rights are not inconsequential or irrelevant. You sound very gammon-like saying stuff like that. Much like the SNP's counsel this week saying that women's rights to associate freely with other women was "trivial". That was the word used. Trivial. With luck the end of the SNP will stop such condescending and offensive rubbish being uttered by them and their fellow travellers.

    Yes, I think Starmers policy on Trans rights is a well balanced one on a very contentious issue that respects sex-based rights but avoids the repellent Trans-phobia on display last week. It is where I am on the issue, and it is also a position that most of the country can live with too.

    See here for Labour's current position:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/24/labour-vows-to-modernise-simplify-and-reform-gender-recognition-act
    Once again the focus is always on trans rights when it is not their rights which are the issue (they have exactly the same rights as everyone else). But the effect of giving them a privilege which no other group has on the rights of others.

    Labour's position on women's right and the Equality Act is better than it was certainly. It needs clarifying in certain respects. There is a worrying silence about single sex services and associations which must be protected, for instance. https://www.cyclefree.co.uk/questions-questions/

    It is largely a result of pressure from a lot of Labour women - young women - especially Labour Women's Declaration even though, shamefully, they have not been allowed a stand at the Labour conference. As for what the Tories announced this week, Barclay said that he would ensure single sex wards, a promise made in 2010 but since broken repeatedly. It is entirely supported by Labour. As for the PM's statement in his speech, this was announced by Kay Burley to be in breach of the EA. Which shows only that she - like many others - hasn't the first clue what the Act actually says.

    Anyway in a week's time I shall be in Glasgow at a feminist conference. Lots of interesting international speakers. I shall report back!
  • ydoethur said:

    So after chapping (according to them) thousands of doors, having dozens of southern Lab MPs press the Rutherglen flesh, unleashing the 20 watt Starmer charisma and benefitting from several thousand tactical Tory votes, SLab received fewer votes in this constituency than they did in every election this century, including the two they lost? I guess it indicates the lukewarm ceiling of Labour support in Scotland. The more interesting questions are how many indy/SNP supporters sat on their hands, and if/when they might stop doing so.

    Or it suggests that the voters of Rutherglen, barely more than a third of whom turned out, are fed up with all politicians.
    That was certainly the tenor of the vox pops I saw.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    edited October 2023

    Cyclefree said:

    Lots of reasons for the SNP to lose: financial chicanery, the Calmac ferries, really poor legislation - much of which has had to be withdrawn or challenged, waste of money, dancing to the tune of monomaniac lobbyists, failure to make good on promises, in-fighting, arrogance.

    This is what is happening to the Tories. And will result in similar electoral misfortune.

    Labour publicly learnt a lesson from the SNP's problems with the GRR Bill and made a change to their stated policy. That I think is one of Starmer's strengths. He doesn't simply say he will learn lessons. He actually shows this. It has been criticised as dreary triangulation by some or breaking promises by others. And there is a risk that he looks untrustworthy. But his willingness to change tack, say so publicly and say why is potentially heartening.

    And @Heathener, women's rights are not inconsequential or irrelevant. You sound very gammon-like saying stuff like that. Much like the SNP's counsel this week saying that women's rights to associate freely with other women was "trivial". That was the word used. Trivial. With luck the end of the SNP will stop such condescending and offensive rubbish being uttered by them and their fellow travellers.

    Yes, I’m also gradually warming to SKS, though I’m still some way off being a ‘fan’. He should offer a substantive and much-needed improvement in the standard of governance across the UK.
    I am not a fan of any politician. But I think he is learning and the fact that he is prepared to learn is a mark in his favour in my book.

    Edit: why is Vanilla so rubbish!
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,052
    Pro_Rata said:

    Eabhal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    2m
    🚨 *JUST FOR FUN ALARM* 🚨

    How Scotland would vote if the Rutherglen & Hamilton West By-Election swing was repeated across the country:

    LAB: 38 (+37)
    SNP: 7 (-41)
    CON: 7 (+1)
    LDM: 5 (+3)

    Changes w/ GE2019 Notional."

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1710097379569893680

    *Grabs the popcorn*

    If there is a risk of a wipeout, it depends on how resilient the Tory vote is in the borders/NE. I think the SNP could make some gains there even as the cities go red.
    Local by-elections showing SNP to any challenger swing at the moment, including Con.

    Not necessarily saying that will follow in a GE, just makes SNP-Con seats tricky to read.
    Especially in the borders and the North East where the Lib Dems still have strong council bases and plenty of active members.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,356

    Foxy said:

    So after chapping (according to them) thousands of doors, having dozens of southern Lab MPs press the Rutherglen flesh, unleashing the 20 watt Starmer charisma and benefitting from several thousand tactical Tory votes, SLab received fewer votes in this constituency than they did in every election this century, including the two they lost? I guess it indicates the lukewarm ceiling of Labour support in Scotland. The more interesting questions are how many indy/SNP supporters sat on their hands, and if/when they might stop doing so.

    Bit churlish TUD. Byelections generally get a lower turnout than GE, and while I agree that they cannot be generalised too far, this is a triumph for Starmer.

    I support Scottish independence, though rightly with no say in the matter, but the SNP are a mess at the moment. I am sure they will be back in an electable state at some point.

    There looks to be the sort of backlash against a tired and divided regime north of the border as much as there is south of it. The same is true of the unusual local election results against the Lab in Leicester in May*. Voters have had enough and want change.

    *I think Khan will limp home in London like Soulsby did in Leicester as mayor, but losing assembly seats next year for similar reasons.

    Would it be churlish to enquire as to the nature of the change that's being offered by Starwar, or is it just down to the colour of the rosette?
    I am no Starmer fan, and have no great hopes for him as PM. I won't be voting Labour, for a number of reasons next GE, but neither do I fear him getting in unlike if Sunak scrapes home.

    I think the SNP fightback needs to centre on competent and honest government in Holyrood. Without that the cause of independence cannot win.
  • It all makes sense now. The Conservative & Unionist party will do anything to protect the Union, including pretending to have gone totally loopy. Bravo!
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,628
    DavidL said:

    Excellent result for the Union and a very good result for Starmer. It makes me more confident that Labour will win enough seats in Scotland to have an overall majority. I think some on here are overplaying Tory losses but with this sort of Scottish bonus that will not matter.

    Absolutely. It's HUGE for LAB. Certainly a real prospect of 20+ seats for LAB in Scotland at the GE, maybe more. Horror show coming up for SNP!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    So after chapping (according to them) thousands of doors, having dozens of southern Lab MPs press the Rutherglen flesh, unleashing the 20 watt Starmer charisma and benefitting from several thousand tactical Tory votes, SLab received fewer votes in this constituency than they did in every election this century, including the two they lost? I guess it indicates the lukewarm ceiling of Labour support in Scotland. The more interesting questions are how many indy/SNP supporters sat on their hands, and if/when they might stop doing so.

    Bit churlish TUD. Byelections generally get a lower turnout than GE, and while I agree that they cannot be generalised too far, this is a triumph for Starmer.

    I support Scottish independence, though rightly with no say in the matter, but the SNP are a mess at the moment. I am sure they will be back in an electable state at some point.

    There looks to be the sort of backlash against a tired and divided regime north of the border as much as there is south of it. The same is true of the unusual local election results against the Lab in Leicester in May*. Voters have had enough and want change.

    *I think Khan will limp home in London like Soulsby did in Leicester as mayor, but losing assembly seats next year for similar reasons.

    Would it be churlish to enquire as to the nature of the change that's being offered by Starwar, or is it just down to the colour of the rosette?
    I am no Starmer fan, and have no great hopes for him as PM. I won't be voting Labour, for a number of reasons next GE, but neither do I fear him getting in unlike if Sunak scrapes home.

    I think the SNP fightback needs to centre on competent and honest government in Holyrood. Without that the cause of independence cannot win.
    Indeed. The Union is safe for a generation.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,675
    Foxy said:

    I think the SNP fightback needs to centre on competent and honest government in Holyrood. Without that the cause of independence cannot win.

    The baw's on the slates then...
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,362

    So after chapping (according to them) thousands of doors, having dozens of southern Lab MPs press the Rutherglen flesh, unleashing the 20 watt Starmer charisma and benefitting from several thousand tactical Tory votes, SLab received fewer votes in this constituency than they did in every election this century, including the two they lost? I guess it indicates the lukewarm ceiling of Labour support in Scotland. The more interesting questions are how many indy/SNP supporters sat on their hands, and if/when they might stop doing so.

    If Labour support was lukewarm, the SNP support was icy cold. I agree though - it feels like turnout was the bigger driver of the swing, rather than people switching allegiances.

    On that note, the Conservative tactical vote angle has two weaknesses: 1) Unionist tactical voting existed in 2019. 2) Perhaps Tories also sat on their hands? Or voted Labour for the same reasons English Tories are switching over?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,307

    DavidL said:

    Excellent result for the Union and a very good result for Starmer. It makes me more confident that Labour will win enough seats in Scotland to have an overall majority. I think some on here are overplaying Tory losses but with this sort of Scottish bonus that will not matter.

    Absolutely. It's HUGE for LAB. Certainly a real prospect of 20+ seats for LAB in Scotland at the GE, maybe more. Horror show coming up for SNP!
    This was a far more important by-election for them than the two coming up in a fortnight’s time. They only need to show forward progression in them, whereas losing in Rutherglen would have had led to a potentially fatal bout of navel gazing.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,163
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Ahem


    Next generation Estate Agent looks more like it now
    I wouldn't buy a house from him.

    Very happy to lose my £3 bet. My expectation was not to lose it so decisively though - I thought Labour would probably win it but not by this much.
This discussion has been closed.