politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It could be that front-runner, Jim Murphy, is too divisive

Speedy said:

That puts Labour as largest party with around the same seats as the Tories in 2010, assuming the constituency polls in england & wales are accurate.

Do you mean "assuming the constituency polls in england & wales are accurate" *and* nothing changes between the time the polls were done and next May?

@JohnRentoul: Alistair Darling sides with Ed Balls against Ed Miliband on EU referendum FT http://t.co/ha3XoS9bZD http://t.co/kfGKq2sxtl

Live TV coverage of the Romanian presidential election results programme:

http://www.romaniatv.net/live

JohnLilburne said:

anothernick said:

AndyJS said:

After a few hours of moving slightly towards the Tories the Betfair numbers for Rochester are returning to where they were this time yesterday:

http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.115925336#id=1.115707446

Just back from a canvsassing trip to Rochester. Canvassed a mixed area in Strood... The whole area had a rather downbeat feel - poorly maintained streets, quite a large proportion of houses run down and rather unkempt.

Strood is all like that, or so say my friends in Rochester.

I looked at Strood when we were buying our first house.

I chose Gillingham over Strood... and those of you who know Medway will know Gillingham is not the greatest of areas (or certainly not in 1983)

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 · 7m7 minutes ago
Sunil on Sunday's ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) update 2nd Nov. Lab 32.9%, Con 32.2, UKIP 16.3, LD 7.5

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/529018633784406016

Wot no Greens?

Scott_P said:

Neil said:

A little bit of tim just died inside. Who will be the first to call the seat as a Tory gain...? Will you do the honours?

Just spoke to my contacts. They are predicting the Tories could sneak through the middle here as Labour and the SNP battle it out...

Does that count as a surge???

Speedy said:

Neil said:

Speedy said:

That puts Labour as largest party with around the same seats as the Tories in 2010, assuming the constituency polls in england & wales are accurate.

Do you mean "assuming the constituency polls in england & wales are accurate" *and* nothing changes between the time the polls were done and next May?

So far there is still a big swing to Labour in constituencies polled by Ashcroft, enough to give them a majority if there was no major movement in scotland

Or if there is no major movement between the time they were done and next May....

peter_from_putney said:

fitalass said:

They would definitely make an interesting read. I am not in the least bit surprised that Darling is standing down at the next GE, I think that he only left it this long to announce it because he wanted to concentrate on the Indy Referendum.

Scott_P said:

I wonder when Darling's memoirs will be released..?

On the basis that they are already written, presumably they will be published so as to have the greatest impact after the 2015 GE - I would suggest after Ed Miliband's resignation or perhaps just prior to next year's Labour Conference.

Not only have they already been written ... they've already been published. (Though I'm sure they could be updated.).

Labour majority disappears as UKPR polling average is updated:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

Lab 33%
Con 32%
UKIP 17%
LD 8%
Greens 5%

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/uk-polling-report-average-2

JohnLilburne said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 · 7m7 minutes ago
Sunil on Sunday's ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) update 2nd Nov. Lab 32.9%, Con 32.2, UKIP 16.3, LD 7.5

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/529018633784406016

Wot no Greens?

Lord Sunil thinks they need to be regularly beating the LibDems to warrant inclusion!

Speedy said:

GIN1138 said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Angela Merkel appears to be calling our bluff: free movement or Brexit.

Angela Merkel 'would accept UK exit from EU to protect migration laws'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29874392

Good.

Hopefully we can depart this useless project without even having to go through a silly "re-negotiation" and referendum.

Farage may actually have to get off the gravy train soon. Who would have thunk it? :^O

I don't think that the present parliament will vote for a simple exit.
The LD will not permit it to even come to a vote.
The next parliament will be extraordinarily messy with a possible 3 party coalition government having to face another economic crash in europe, so anything before 2020 is unlikely.

With the rise of anarchists in Spain, nationalists in France, left wing radicals in Ireland and Greece, Britain might not be the first one to leave the EU.

Is there a serious Eurosceptic party in Spain?

Greece would be my bet for first (non UK) EU exit, I just can't see Spain or Italy or Ireland going for it. (Not least because Spain and Ireland have done - on balance - pretty well out of the EU. Both have gone from middle income countries to high income countries in the last quarter century.)

France could be more interesting, but with Hollande almost certain not to make the top top two (and he may not even make the top three), I suspect the FN will get get hammered (again) in the second round.

On the relatively esoteric issue of EU voting - the suggestion that voting in national elections be allowed has come up now and then in European discussion, though nobody was especially keen. I do quite often meet western Euriopeans (Dutch, French, German etc.) who are very interested and would like to vote in GEs (they can and often do vote in locals). I'm not sure that they would vote very differently to the Brits, though presumably less UKIP. Eastern Europeans are in my experience on average less interested, and don't bother to vote in locals, unless they've gone as far as taking British nationality.

manofkent2014 said:

Speedy said:

GIN1138 said:

Speedy said:

GIN1138 said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Angela Merkel appears to be calling our bluff: free movement or Brexit.

Angela Merkel 'would accept UK exit from EU to protect migration laws'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29874392

Good.

Hopefully we can depart this useless project without even having to go through a silly "re-negotiation" and referendum.

Farage may actually have to get off the gravy train soon. Who would have thunk it? :^O

I don't think that the present parliament will vote for a simple exit.
The LD will not permit it to even come to a vote.
The next parliament will be extraordinarily messy with a possible 3 party coalition government having to face another economic crash in europe, so anything before 2020 is unlikely.

We'll it won't be this side of the election, but I'm not sure we'll have to wait many years.

The Europeans don't really want us to stay and the British seem to want to leave.

Looks like we're "consciously uncoupling" to me. Things can move surprisingly quickly when momentum starts to build...

I don't think that a Labour-LD-SNP coalition government will let Britain to leave even if the EU started to peel off members. But if somehow UKIP manages to get enough MP's to provide a working coalition with Labour I can imagine that Labour might ditch their europhile partners in exchange for UKIP support with the price of an EU exit.

It could happen, Labour did do deals with all kinds of MP's in the seventies to remain in power, even with Enoch Powell.

I do not think there is any chance of Labour contemplating exit from the EU with Miliband as leader

Do you really think Milliband cares about the EU more than about his personal political prospects? If he genuinely thought advocating leaving the EU would result in certain election success (ten years in number 10!!!), he would go for it like a shot.

However, he believes that advocating EU withdrawal would lose his soft metropolitan left to the LibDems, and that either (a) he won't lose many (if any) seats to UKIP in the North anyway, or (b) that backing EU exit would do nothing to change the anger in places like Rotherham anyway.

Alistair said:

Artist said:

Darling didn't get the credit he deserved for beating Salmond in that first independence debate IMO. I can't imagine any other Westminster politician being able to make Salmond look like the chancer he is, as Darling did that night.

A banana would have won the first debate, Salmond was diabolically bad. After a crushing opening Darling let his initial complete and total dominance slip away by tripping over himself and being made to look tetchy.

I still do not understand why Darling agreed to a second debate.

rcs1000 said:

manofkent2014 said:

Speedy said:

GIN1138 said:

Speedy said:

GIN1138 said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Angela Merkel appears to be calling our bluff: free movement or Brexit.

Angela Merkel 'would accept UK exit from EU to protect migration laws'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29874392

Good.

Hopefully we can depart this useless project without even having to go through a silly "re-negotiation" and referendum.

Farage may actually have to get off the gravy train soon. Who would have thunk it? :^O

I don't think that the present parliament will vote for a simple exit.
The LD will not permit it to even come to a vote.
The next parliament will be extraordinarily messy with a possible 3 party coalition government having to face another economic crash in europe, so anything before 2020 is unlikely.

We'll it won't be this side of the election, but I'm not sure we'll have to wait many years.

The Europeans don't really want us to stay and the British seem to want to leave.

Looks like we're "consciously uncoupling" to me. Things can move surprisingly quickly when momentum starts to build...

I don't think that a Labour-LD-SNP coalition government will let Britain to leave even if the EU started to peel off members. But if somehow UKIP manages to get enough MP's to provide a working coalition with Labour I can imagine that Labour might ditch their europhile partners in exchange for UKIP support with the price of an EU exit.

It could happen, Labour did do deals with all kinds of MP's in the seventies to remain in power, even with Enoch Powell.

I do not think there is any chance of Labour contemplating exit from the EU with Miliband as leader

Do you really think Milliband cares about the EU more than about his personal political prospects? If he genuinely thought advocating leaving the EU would result in certain election success (ten years in number 10!!!), he would go for it like a shot.

However, he believes that advocating EU withdrawal would lose his soft metropolitan left to the LibDems, and that either (a) he won't lose many (if any) seats to UKIP in the North anyway, or (b) that backing EU exit would do nothing to change the anger in places like Rotherham anyway.

Are we seriously believing that the soft metropolitan left will go to a party so hated by all as the LD's?

Scott_P said:

Times leader tomorrow

Labour has complacently followed a strategy of reassuring its core vote and confronting business. It suddenly faces the risk not only of failure but of disaster

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/article4255702.ece

I honestly wonder if these people believe these things. The Labour "core vote" are exactly the kind of people who are most pissed off with Labour's policies.

RodCrosby said:

foxinsoxuk said:

RodCrosby said:

foxinsoxuk said:

RodCrosby said:

Socrates said:

RodCrosby said:

rcs1000 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Socrates said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Suppose you're a Commonwealth citizen who's paid taxes to HM Exchequer for years?

Suppose you're an American citizen who's paid taxes to HM Exchequer for years? Why should they be placed behind, say, Kenyans?

If they have Indefinite Leave to Remain, they should be eligible to vote.

But they have not chosen to become British citizens. If they wished to participate in the democratic process, they could apply for - and easily attain - British citizenship.

Under our law they don't need it.

So they've chosen not to integrate. Fine, if that's their choice, but then they shouldn't get decision making power in the future of our nation.

I dare say the right is now an anachronism. But the least of our worries...

"this is what comes of 'Empire Building'", Breaker Morant, 1980

Breaker Morant is a very interesting film.

I am not sure that a contemporary version would suggest that shooting surrendered prisoners was anything other than a warcrime.

You might be surprised that the treatment of franc-tireurs (partisans) was not settled from the Hague Convention (1899) through to the Nuremberg Trials (1945-1948), and their summary execution was, in certain circumstances, deemed permissable...

I suppose that falls to the question of whether the Boer Commandos were partisans, or were the army of a state.

"It's a new kind of war, George. A new war for a new century. I suppose this is the first time the enemy hasn't been in uniform. They're farmers. They come from small villages, and they shoot at us from behind walls and from farmhouses. Some of them are women, some of them are children, and some of them... are missionaries, George." Breaker Morant, 1980

The rules on shooting captured partisans are indeed interesting. As partisans do not often give quarter they cannot expect it.

Domestic opinion has moved on though, and a film about the trial of a soldier who admitted shooting prisoners would not depict him in such a positive light. In part this is because Breaker Morant was a 1980 film and at the time there was little sympathy for Boers.

Make the same film about the Black and Tans counter insurgency war, with a rogue officer shooting captured IRA men, and a priest, and see how that goes down!

RodCrosby said:

AndyJS said:

Labour majority disappears as UKPR polling average is updated:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

'Bout time.

Just for fun (don't hold me to this!), I suspect we'll get a 4-point Tory lead in some poll before Christmas.

I stand by my prediction (Sep 2013) that true crossover will occur by Jan 2015...

With Rochester on Nov.21st, the EU payment due on Dec.1 I don't think that is possible.
You should play with your L&N electoral train models less.

Speedy said:

Are we seriously believing that the soft metropolitan left will go to a party so hated by all as the LD's?

So your post becomes even more bizarre, then.

My point was: Milliband is a career politician who does things only for his own political gain. If he advocates EU withdrawl then he worries about his metropolitan left going to the LibDems.

If that is impossible, as you suggest, then you seem to be of the belief that Ed Milliband would rather fail to become Prime Minister for the next decade because of his love of Brussels.

He is therefore truly the most idealistic politician anyone on this site has ever come across.

Neil said:

rcs1000 said:

France could be more interesting, but with Hollande almost certain not to make the top top two (and he may not even make the top three)

He may not even be a candidate.

As things stand Marine Le Pen has the momentum and France isn't getting any better.
Today another poll came out in which 60% said that she is the best opposition leader.

Speedy said:

rcs1000 said:

Speedy said:

GIN1138 said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Angela Merkel appears to be calling our bluff: free movement or Brexit.

Angela Merkel 'would accept UK exit from EU to protect migration laws'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29874392

Good.

Hopefully we can depart this useless project without even having to go through a silly "re-negotiation" and referendum.

Farage may actually have to get off the gravy train soon. Who would have thunk it? :^O

I don't think that the present parliament will vote for a simple exit.
The LD will not permit it to even come to a vote.
The next parliament will be extraordinarily messy with a possible 3 party coalition government having to face another economic crash in europe, so anything before 2020 is unlikely.

With the rise of anarchists in Spain, nationalists in France, left wing radicals in Ireland and Greece, Britain might not be the first one to leave the EU.

Is there a serious Eurosceptic party in Spain?

Greece would be my bet for first (non UK) EU exit, I just can't see Spain or Italy or Ireland going for it. (Not least because Spain and Ireland have done - on balance - pretty well out of the EU. Both have gone from middle income countries to high income countries in the last quarter century.)

France could be more interesting, but with Hollande almost certain not to make the top top two (and he may not even make the top three), I suspect the FN will get get hammered (again) in the second round.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Podemos_(Spanish_political_party)

They are currently first in the opinion polls.

There is no mention on that page you linked to them advocating exit of the EU (although they do advocate exit from NATO), and a google for them "Podemos EU exit" does not come up with any policy suggestion of that type. I've also searched for "Podemos EU policy", and failed to come up with any info.

Given how committed most of the Spanish polity is to the EU, the fact that Spanish employment as a percentage of the population is not higher than when the country entered the Euro, and that the country is growing again (not to mention the surge in FDI they have received is because of their EU membership), I would be very surprised if Spain were to leave the EU first.

15-1 on Spain first? Bet goes to me if no-one leaves before 2020?

Scott_P said:

Times leader tomorrow

Labour has complacently followed a strategy of reassuring its core vote and confronting business. It suddenly faces the risk not only of failure but of disaster

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/article4255702.ece

You would have to have a heart of stone not to laugh.

GIN1138 said:

Speedy said:

GIN1138 said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Angela Merkel appears to be calling our bluff: free movement or Brexit.

Angela Merkel 'would accept UK exit from EU to protect migration laws'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29874392

Good.

Hopefully we can depart this useless project without even having to go through a silly "re-negotiation" and referendum.

Farage may actually have to get off the gravy train soon. Who would have thunk it? :^O

I don't think that the present parliament will vote for a simple exit.
The LD will not permit it to even come to a vote.
The next parliament will be extraordinarily messy with a possible 3 party coalition government having to face another economic crash in europe, so anything before 2020 is unlikely.

We'll it won't be this side of the election, but I'm not sure we'll have to wait many years.

The Europeans don't really want us to stay and the British seem to want to leave.

Looks like we're "consciously uncoupling" to me. Things can move surprisingly quickly when momentum starts to build...

And when its all over? Will it be any different? Only marginally. And it will be moot if it is better - although i could live nwith being in the EEA. We will still be in the single market and subject to EU single market rules, and if we are lucky it will be done quicky and not be disruptive to the economy and our inward investment. This to me is the real point about negotiating first rather than walking out and hoping for something after.

Immigration? Leaving aside whether there will be any real change, just what will be the position of the 2 million British people in the EU?
Its all very well ignoring that constituency now (and their relatives & dependants - another 5 million?) but start to change their relationship, start to maybe force them home, start to make working in the EU difficult, and then a whole new area for complaint will emerge.

But then again UKIP are not about the EU they are not about whats good for Britain, they are just a coalition of hate.

bigjohnowls said:

AndyJS said:

Labour majority disappears as UKPR polling average is updated:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

Lab 33%
Con 32%
UKIP 17%
LD 8%
Greens 5%

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/uk-polling-report-average-2

Disappears Definition

die out, die, become extinct, cease to be/exist, be no more, come to an end, end, pass away, pass into oblivion, expire, perish, wither away, leave no trace.

Not quite disappears then.

Only the blind can fail to see the direction of travel.

manofkent2014 said:

In the recent much trumpeted Ipsos Mori EU poll only 14% of the electorate actually support the direction in which the EU is travelling (i.e. ever closer union), less than half prefer either maintaining the status quo or going down the closer Union route. It is easier politically to wrap oneself in a Union Jack and turn away from the EU (given justification for the EU is less than tenuous) than it is to dig ones heels in over it but that is what Miliband has done so far and I believe will continue to do so. Nobody to my mind has ever found EU membership to be politically beneficial, a vote winner so there must be other reasons and most of those I suspect are ideological why establishment politicians cling to Brussels so tightly.

Yet UKIP (at best) scores 22% in the polls. And perhaps 58% (on a good day) support EU exit, which is pretty much the typical level for the last 30 years.

OK, let me help you out here.

The main reasons Labour does not advocate EU withdrawal is:

a) Scars from 1983. Last time the party went for EU withdrawal it was a disaster and they did - indeed - shed voted to the another party.
b) Because they don't think they'll win UKIP voters back. Would Labour be taken seriously? If not, they'd merely lose a bunch of voters under (a), and not gain any back from UKIP.

There may also be:

c) They genuinely believe the three fundamental freedoms of the EEA - freedom of goods, freedom of labour, freedom of capital - are good for the UK, and for its people.

However, like all politicians (including Nigel Farage) they are mostly making a narrow political calculation about what will garner the most votes.

RodCrosby said:

foxinsoxuk said:

The rules on shooting captured partisans are indeed interesting. As partisans do not often give quarter they cannot expect it.

Domestic opinion has moved on though, and a film about the trial of a soldier who admitted shooting prisoners would not depict him in such a positive light. In part this is because Breaker Morant was a 1980 film and at the time there was little sympathy for Boers.

Make the same film about the Black and Tans counter insurgency war, with a rogue officer shooting captured IRA men, and a priest, and see how that goes down!

These things are always coloured by time, location, retrospect, partisanship.

But Breaker Morant is a great film, one of the greatest. It asks the question "What would you do, in the same circumstances?" It's hard not to answer "Quite possibly, the same", and be drawn irresistibly to the identical conclusion as the defendant who had his sentence commuted - that these men were "Scapegoats of the Empire", sacrificed for some supposed higher goal - a grubby deal to end a war that couldn't be won...

I suspect that many British Soldiers feel the same over the Bloody Sunday inquiry, for example. Being hung out to dry "for the greater good" is not unique to the Boer War.

Twas ever thus: " It's Tommy this, and Tommy that, and Tommy go away, but saviour of his country when the band begins to play..."

Speedy said:

Policies:
Redefining Sovereignty implies revoking or curtailing the Treaty of Lisbon, abandoning memoranda of understanding, withdrawing from some free trade agreements and promoting referenda on any major constitutional reform.

That means that they want Spain to at least have some serious opt outs from the EU, many more than Britain has.
If the EU has a problem with the modest British opts, the Podemos demands will lead to a Spanish EU exit.
Also spanish umeployment is 24%, in 2002 it was 11%, and i'm sure the surge in FDI in 1986 was impressive, but hungry people won't really care (see Sinn Fein Ireland).

The proportion of Spaniards (above the age of 15) in employment is higher now than in 1999. 46.2% versus 44.1%. Both are pretty shit numbers compared to the UK.

rcs1000 said:

manofkent2014 said:

In the recent much trumpeted Ipsos Mori EU poll only 14% of the electorate actually support the direction in which the EU is travelling (i.e. ever closer union), less than half prefer either maintaining the status quo or going down the closer Union route. It is easier politically to wrap oneself in a Union Jack and turn away from the EU (given justification for the EU is less than tenuous) than it is to dig ones heels in over it but that is what Miliband has done so far and I believe will continue to do so. Nobody to my mind has ever found EU membership to be politically beneficial, a vote winner so there must be other reasons and most of those I suspect are ideological why establishment politicians cling to Brussels so tightly.

Yet UKIP (at best) scores 22% in the polls. And perhaps 58% (on a good day) support EU exit, which is pretty much the typical level for the last 30 years.

OK, let me help you out here.

The main reasons Labour does not advocate EU withdrawal is:

a) Scars from 1983. Last time the party went for EU withdrawal it was a disaster and they did - indeed - shed voted to the another party.
b) Because they don't think they'll win UKIP voters back. Would Labour be taken seriously? If not, they'd merely lose a bunch of voters under (a), and not gain any back from UKIP.

There may also be:

c) They genuinely believe the three fundamental freedoms of the EEA - freedom of goods, freedom of labour, freedom of capital - are good for the UK, and for its people.

However, like all politicians (including Nigel Farage) they are mostly making a narrow political calculation about what will garner the most votes.

On a) 1983:
In 1983 the EEC was not as unpopular as the EU today especially with swing voters back then.
Today the average swing voter is drifting to either UKIP or the Greens which have programs more extreme than Thacher or Foot in 1983.

On c):
It costs now more to pay for EU membership than tariffs if Britain was not an EU member.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

I love my mum!

Just now: "[Ed] looks like a bloody retard!"

@DanHannanMEP: According to current polls, Ed Miliband will become PM with around 34% support. Sheesh! http://t.co/oVWktbXwJv

Speedy said:

i'm sure the surge in FDI in 1986 was impressive, but hungry people won't really care (see Sinn Fein Ireland).

In 1986, the UK and Ireland dominated FDI in Europe. Ireland is still number one, but Spain and Portugal and now second and third.

As an aside, Spain is now the second biggest car maker in the EU, behind Germany. They have quietly overtaken Italy, France and the UK. There are massive new plants being built by Nissan, GM, Ford, VW and others in northern Spain (mostly around Bilbao), and it is likely they will overtake Mexico and Brazil in the next three years.

Speedy said:

hungry people won't really care (see Sinn Fein Ireland).

The idea that Ireland would leave the EU before the UK is for the birds. A political impossibility. Even if the UK left first things have changed greatly from the early 70s when Ireland had no choice but to join when the UK did and I seriously doubt they would leave even then. Sinn Fein's rise over the course of the current Dail has very little to do with its euroscepticism (which I have little doubt it would drop in a heartbeat if it made power more likely) and is mostly down to being the only main opposition party who hasnt recently run the country into the ground at a time when the government parties are having to do seriously unpopular things.

Speedy said:

rcs1000 said:

Speedy said:

Policies:
Redefining Sovereignty implies revoking or curtailing the Treaty of Lisbon, abandoning memoranda of understanding, withdrawing from some free trade agreements and promoting referenda on any major constitutional reform.

That means that they want Spain to at least have some serious opt outs from the EU, many more than Britain has.
If the EU has a problem with the modest British opts, the Podemos demands will lead to a Spanish EU exit.
Also spanish umeployment is 24%, in 2002 it was 11%, and i'm sure the surge in FDI in 1986 was impressive, but hungry people won't really care (see Sinn Fein Ireland).

The proportion of Spaniards (above the age of 15) in employment is higher now than in 1999. 46.2% versus 44.1%. Both are pretty shit numbers compared to the UK.

Yet somehow like in Ireland, the people are not grateful with your economic numbers.

Have you any polling to back up the suggestion that popular opinion in Ireland is receptive to leaving the EU at all never mind ahead of the UK?

Tim_B said:

Just finished watching the F1 race.

Hey Tim_B

Maybe you could check out your super duper NFL service and tell us who is top of the NFC East..?

Cheers

Neil said:

Speedy said:

rcs1000 said:

Speedy said:

Policies:
Redefining Sovereignty implies revoking or curtailing the Treaty of Lisbon, abandoning memoranda of understanding, withdrawing from some free trade agreements and promoting referenda on any major constitutional reform.

That means that they want Spain to at least have some serious opt outs from the EU, many more than Britain has.
If the EU has a problem with the modest British opts, the Podemos demands will lead to a Spanish EU exit.
Also spanish umeployment is 24%, in 2002 it was 11%, and i'm sure the surge in FDI in 1986 was impressive, but hungry people won't really care (see Sinn Fein Ireland).

The proportion of Spaniards (above the age of 15) in employment is higher now than in 1999. 46.2% versus 44.1%. Both are pretty shit numbers compared to the UK.

Yet somehow like in Ireland, the people are not grateful with your economic numbers.

Have you any polling to back up the suggestion that popular opinion in Ireland is receptive to leaving the EU at all never mind ahead of the UK?

There haven't been many polls asking specifically about EU in/out questions, however there are about the eurozone:
http://www.people.ie/press/redc.pdf

"There are relatively high levels of resistance among the Irish public (69%) to any
suggestion of cuts to areas such as pay, welfare or pensions; if these were
required by people in the Eurozone to ensure the continued existence of the
euro currency"

That is unfortunately almost a year old, and since then Sinn Fein has risen in the polls.
However euroscepticism in Ireland is not new, they had problems ratifying the Nice and Lisbon treaties with referendums.

Speedy said:

Neil said:

Speedy said:

rcs1000 said:

Speedy said:

Policies:
Redefining Sovereignty implies revoking or curtailing the Treaty of Lisbon, abandoning memoranda of understanding, withdrawing from some free trade agreements and promoting referenda on any major constitutional reform.

That means that they want Spain to at least have some serious opt outs from the EU, many more than Britain has.
If the EU has a problem with the modest British opts, the Podemos demands will lead to a Spanish EU exit.
Also spanish umeployment is 24%, in 2002 it was 11%, and i'm sure the surge in FDI in 1986 was impressive, but hungry people won't really care (see Sinn Fein Ireland).

The proportion of Spaniards (above the age of 15) in employment is higher now than in 1999. 46.2% versus 44.1%. Both are pretty shit numbers compared to the UK.

Yet somehow like in Ireland, the people are not grateful with your economic numbers.

Have you any polling to back up the suggestion that popular opinion in Ireland is receptive to leaving the EU at all never mind ahead of the UK?

There haven't been many polls asking about the EU, however there are about the eurozone:
http://www.people.ie/press/redc.pdf

"There are relatively high levels of resistance among the Irish public (69%) to any
suggestion of cuts to areas such as pay, welfare or pensions; if these were
required by people in the Eurozone to ensure the continued existence of the
euro currency"

That is unfortunately almost a year old, and since then Sinn Fein has risen in the polls.
However euroscepticism in Ireland is not new, they had problems ratifying the Nice and Lisbon treaties with referendums.

I think you misunderstand the nature of euroscepticism in Ireland. Refusing to ratify Nice or Lisbon (at the first time of asking) is not the same as supporting leaving the EU. Sinn Fein hasnt risen that much in the last year (their breakthrough came much earlier in the Dail). I would suggest the reason you cant find any evidence of Irish support for leaving the EU is because there isnt any.

The thing is, if the Euston Travelodge costs £200 a night and the luxurious ME London costs £350 a night, it makes more sense to save up a bit and go to the ME London instead.

Speedy said:

This will become another potent issue for the PM, just after the EU bill and the European Arrest Warrant.
Three hits from Europe in 2 weeks time.
Public attitudes will harden.

Wonderful Kipper reasoning!

So, let's get this straight: you think that a headline indicating Cameron might be taking us out of the EU is a reason for people who want to leave the EU not to vote for him?

Run that one past me again..

Scott_P said:

@George_Osborne: People have right to know exactly much tax they pay & how it's spent. Now for 1st time 24million taxpayers get a new personal #taxsummary

@George_Osborne: Look out for your personalised tax summary - more transparency means government held to account http://t.co/f8cKcNFHj8

Another Osborne gift for future profligate Labour chancellors, like the OBR

I think a lot of people will get a huge shock when they see this kind of graphic

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03093/ATS-mockup-60000-2_3093409c.jpg

I would that 90% of people have no idea the break down is anything like this.

TGOHF said:

It's almost like Angela Merkel has conducted a negotiation before and may have hit on the concept of using the media.

Sweet how naive the little kippers are though.

Yes, the true significance is that our EU friends are beginning to take renegotiation seriously. Until recently they've just ignored it, assuming that it would just go away as an issue.

Tim_B said:

AndyJS said:

RodCrosby said:

Cyclefree said:

Dear PB brains: completely off topic but any tips for hotels in Istanbul. Planning a trip there in mid December with family. A decade since last there.

Thanks!

TripAdvisor
Booking.com

should always be your first port of call.

Expedia is useful as well.

You can use sites like Kayak and Orbitz for flights.

www.holidayugo.com for airport to hotel transfers.

For £22 I somehow managed to get a private cab both ways from Antalya airport to the Kemer resort hotel I was staying at.

Talking about Spain, there is mounting pressure in Catalonia for a unilateral succession from Spain:

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/junqueras-skilfully-surfs-catalan-independence-wave-1.1984006

http://www.thelocal.es/20141101/tense-standoff-over-catalonia-independence-vote

Artus Mas the nationalist Catalonian leader is being outflanked by even more nationalist parties who demand a declaration of independence without the spanish banned referendum.

SeanT said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 · 7m7 minutes ago
Sunil on Sunday's ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) update 2nd Nov. Lab 32.9%, Con 32.2, UKIP 16.3, LD 7.5

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/529018633784406016

Good work, Sir.

Your chart implies Labour are slowly leaking votes to UKIP, more than anything else. Which is quite delicious.

Why, thank you! I try to do my best

RodCrosby said:

Cyclefree said:

Dear PB brains: completely off topic but any tips for hotels in Istanbul. Planning a trip there in mid December with family. A decade since last there.

Thanks!

TripAdvisor
Booking.com

should always be your first port of call.

Cyclefree said:

Dear PB brains: completely off topic but any tips for hotels in Istanbul. Planning a trip there in mid December with family. A decade since last there.

Thanks!

Istanbul has lots of overpriced hotels. I've had two poor experiences there. The renovated Pera Palace looks good though.

MikeK said:

No, we kippers just want to drive you old tory diehards nuts, and to realise that a new force is arising that doesn't care a damn for the lies and sneakiness of a party that has lost its way.

Oh, quite. Driving sensible people nuts is exactly what you want to do. It is indeed very frustrating to see such madness risking destroying all the progress that has been made. You may well succeed in putting Ed Miliband - a spectacularly incompetent Europhile - into No 10, and, yes, I know you don't care a damn about that.

Never in my lifetime have I seen such a piece of self-harm as UKIP. It's like the SDP but without the excuse which they had, which was that Labour had lost their marbles.