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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It could be that front-runner, Jim Murphy, is too divisive

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  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    ZenPagan said:

    It is for the furtherance of the aims of the brussels bureaucracy just as westminster is the vehicle for the furtherance of the aims of the whitehall bureucrats (sic)
    Whatever shortcomings the Westminster operation may have (we don't have time for that discussion) at least it is wholly democratic in terms of the HOC. Not so much for the Brussels / Strassburg operation.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited November 2014

    Well indeed some of us have been trying to work that out for decades. Personally I have come to the conclusion that it is an exercise in glorious narcissistic vanity for the European political elite with a dash of megalomania on the side for good measure. After what it has done to Greece it can be little else.

    Sounds like we're of like mind. I hope that's a good thing :-)
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    EPG said:

    There is a game-theoretic sense in which exit is a repeated game for the EU but a once-off game for the UK. Whereas the UK would suffer little reputational harm from the negotiations themselves after already announcing its desire to repudiate the various treaties, the EU certainly could. If costs of exit proved to be low, it would eventually be rational for every country to exit when circumstances were right. Therefore, in so far as EU electorates and countries want to keep the union, they would negotiate precedents that give EU membership meaningful benefits.

    That sounds like John Forbes Nash Jr and his non-cooperative game theory
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited November 2014
    EPG said:

    There is a game-theoretic sense in which exit is a repeated game for the EU but a once-off game for the UK. Whereas the UK would suffer little reputational harm from the negotiations themselves after already announcing its desire to repudiate the various treaties, the EU certainly could. If costs of exit proved to be low, it would eventually be rational for every country to exit when circumstances were right. Therefore, in so far as EU electorates and countries want to keep the union, they would negotiate precedents that give EU membership meaningful benefits.

    Well no because most EU countries actually benefit far more for being members of the EU than the UK does. Part of our desire to leave is that there are no sufficiently good reasons to stay. Germany on the other hand benefits by seeing its currency kept at competitive levels and most other members are net recipients of funds therefore why would they want to leave?

    The UK historically has always been the awkward fit in the EU. We have never taken on board the primary aims of the institution and by staying are probably increasingly becoming more of a hindrance to it's goals than anything else. Whilst I can see the deterrent argument, I do not think it will be valid for the UK. We are a problem for Brussels and as such one they will probably likely be happy to get rid of. Why then would they be awkward about our departure?
  • ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    Tim_B said:

    Whatever shortcomings the Westminster operation may have (we don't have time for that discussion) at least it is wholly democratic in terms of the HOC. Not so much for the Brussels / Strassburg operation.
    While it is true that we elect representatives to govern us I have a feeling that they are soon house trained by their permanent secretaries. How else do you explain the policies that resurface time and again such as IMP no matter who is in charge.

    At work my boss is in charge but his edicts are often constructively misinterpreted to prevent undesirable outcomes for our business. Likewise we ensure that the idea's he comes up with originate from us with much show of "What a brilliant idea" when he brings them back to us. Should we do it? No not in an ideal world but its the way a lot of workplaces are.


  • Why do you make it so easy for us to prove what a fool you are? From the department that George Osborne (the Chancellor of the Exchequer dontcha know) is in charge of::

    Date: 10 October 2014

    In August 2014 the value of imports fell to £15.9bn, while exports also fell to £10.7bn, compared with last month. The difference between EU imports and exports (the trade gap) has decreased to £5.2bn.


    https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/EUOverseasTrade/Pages/EuOTS.aspx

    Check the graph out. The balance of trade has been in deficit for over a year now......

    The overall current account has been in deficit with the EU every year since 1984. And was also every year before 1984 right back to when we joined. Overall (both EU and non EU) it reached a record £72.4 billion in 2013. But our current account deficit with the EU was a huge £102.3 million. That means that were it not for trade with the EU we would be in a comfortable balance of payments surplus overall to the tune of £30 billion.

    To say that Eurofanatics like Flightpath are being dishonest with the numbers would be an understatement. In terms of overall current account balance our membership of the EU has been and is an unmitigated disaster.

    http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_382948.pdf
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Well no because most EU countries actually benefit far more for being members of the EU than the UK does. Part of our desire to leave is that there are no sufficiently good reasons to stay. Germany on the other hand benefits by seeing its currency kept at competitive levels and most other members are net recipients of funds therefore why would they want to leave?

    The UK historically has always been the awkward fit in the EU. We have never taken on board the primary aims of the institution and by staying are probably increasingly becoming more of a hindrance to it's goals than anything else. Whilst I can see the deterrent argument, I do not think it will be valid for the UK. We are a problem for Brussels and as such one they will probably likely be happy to get rid of. Why then would they be awkward about our departure?
    Three letters - CAP.

    As a kid in the 60s I lived in Spain. On visiting southern Spain in 2004 I was amazed how many roads, infrastructure, buildings and even bullrings had been built, with EU money. It occurred to me that the UK contrasted sharply with this.
  • The overall current account has been in deficit with the EU every year since 1984. And was also every year before 1984 right back to when we joined. Overall (both EU and non EU) it reached a record £72.4 billion in 2013. But our current account deficit with the EU was a huge £102.3 million. That means that were it not for trade with the EU we would be in a comfortable balance of payments surplus overall to the tune of £30 billion.

    To say that Eurofanatics like Flightpath are being dishonest with the numbers would be an understatement. In terms of overall current account balance our membership of the EU has been and is an unmitigated disaster.

    http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_382948.pdf
    I think that proves the point beyond question. Thanks for that.....
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    ZenPagan said:

    While it is true that we elect representatives to govern us I have a feeling that they are soon house trained by their permanent secretaries. How else do you explain the policies that resurface time and again such as IMP no matter who is in charge.

    At work my boss is in charge but his edicts are often constructively misinterpreted to prevent undesirable outcomes for our business. Likewise we ensure that the idea's he comes up with originate from us with much show of "What a brilliant idea" when he brings them back to us. Should we do it? No not in an ideal world but its the way a lot of workplaces are.
    The 'Sir Humphrey' effect?
  • ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    Tim_B said:

    The 'Sir Humphrey' effect?
    Indeed. I believe the quote from Mrs Thatcher was ""its clearly-observed portrayal of what goes on in the corridors of power has given me hours of pure joy.""

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    ZenPagan said:

    Indeed. I believe the quote from Mrs Thatcher was ""its clearly-observed portrayal of what goes on in the corridors of power has given me hours of pure joy.""

    My favorite moment - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0ZZJXw4MTA

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    edited November 2014
    ZenPagan said:

    While it is true that we elect representatives to govern us I have a feeling that they are soon house trained by their permanent secretaries. How else do you explain the policies that resurface time and again such as IMP no matter who is in charge.

    At work my boss is in charge but his edicts are often constructively misinterpreted to prevent undesirable outcomes for our business. Likewise we ensure that the idea's he comes up with originate from us with much show of "What a brilliant idea" when he brings them back to us. Should we do it? No not in an ideal world but its the way a lot of workplaces are.
    The other possibility here is that the policies that both sound good to the voters and work well in practice have mostly already been done, so most of the policies politicians run for election on are sound-good work-badly ideas that would blow up in the face of any politician foolish enough to actually implement them.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Why then would they be awkward about our departure?

    I can't imagine the other net contributors being overjoyed about having to pick up the slack were the EU to lose our subscription payments. Similarly there would be at least be a suspicion amongst the net receivers that they might have to put up with less if the UK left because the other net contributors would find excuses not to increase their payments.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Given the strong unionist/No feelings in Edinburgh and the "Yes" feeling in Glasgow I think the SNP could outperform the Scottish uniform swing in Glasgow by quite some margin but flop perhaps in Edinburgh (Comparatively) which will probably mean Labour's seats are safe enough there. (North Leith, Edi SW safer than Glasgow East, Glasgow South)

    If Edinburgh North and eith was just Edinburgh Leith then that would be a nailed on racing cert for a SNP gain. The North part swings it back to Labour though.

    EN&L was 40% Yes, according to people at the count if it had be the N&L Scottish parliament area (which takes a chunk out of the 47% voting Edinburgh East and has a big chunk less of the posher parts of Edinburgh then it would have been a Yes vote.

    Depending on what Shadsy offers I may still be taking a speculative SNP punt on EN&L
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