Options
Is Biden going to stand again? – politicalbetting.com
Is Biden going to stand again? – politicalbetting.com
Normally incumbent Presidents don’t face a serious challenge when they seek re-election but next year things could be very different because Biden is so old.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
But...
He's too old.
If he runs Trump wins because sufficient indie voters will hesitate enough over voting for Harris to be POTUS in a year or two.
His fortunes may depend less on his age than whether or not Trump is convicted next year, he likely wins a primary contest with the Democrat establishment behind him
https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2023/sep/17/russell-brand-reaction-metoo-mainstream-media
The Guardian 2013: Guardian columnist Russell Brand sits next to editor Alan Rusbridger at staff meeting
Its the least surprising scandal ever....man is self confessed drug & sex addict, has slept with 100s, possibly 1000s of women, are we supposed to be shocked he is as sleazy as hell and behaved appalling (i wouldn't be surprised he he relapsed in drugs at times, some of the stories sound like he was out of it).
Other than the alleged rape, all other stories are exactly what everybody knew or guessed, yet the entertainment industry yet again turns a blind eye / excuse the talent behaviour.
https://archive.ph/qZ4Hr/again?url=http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/showbiz/bizarre/article2078096.ece
"RUSSELL BRAND scooped Shagger Of The Year for the third consecutive year.
He was “too busy” to pick it up but the gong is still renamed The Russell Brand Shagger Of The Year Award.
Who’d have thought Russ agreed with the festive phrase, “It’s better to give than to receive . . .”
The two earlier pictures I posted from Kirkland's 4th of July parade showed groups of refugees and -- I believe -- their descendants. This one shows a group hoping to save people from being permanent refugees.
They received considerable applause, more than that given to any other group I saw in the parade.
Fun fact: A few years ago a group came down from Canada to join in the celebration. I thought that was sporting of them.
(Reminder: For decades, the US took in more refugees than all other nations combined. If many on the left in Europe, and elsewhere, have given the US much credit for that, I missed it.)
What is it in the air about making up history to motivate right-wing paranoia? Last night we had the assertion that Daniel Patrick Moynihan was victimised by the Democrats for his 1960s politics. In fact he went on to win 4 terms as a Democrat US Senator.
source: https://www.city-journal.org/article/the-left-needs-a-moynihan-moment
There's more.
(Simple point, but it may have been missed: What he said in such pieces was popular with many Democratic voters.)
I remember his being regarded as an utter dick by most people at the time.
I recently watched that CNN interview where he made up a load of fucking bollocks about Obama giving him money so he wouldn't have to sell his house. That was only seven years ago and the decline since then is quite marked.
The opposing argument is that there does not appear to be anybody with the financial and political heft to challenge him and he isn't going to go voluntarily. So unless he drops dead, which admittedly doesn't look impossible, it's JRB vs DJT. Abe Simpson vs Eric Cartman. This is how empires die.
Is it true that those defending him at the time were doing so fit his politics ? (Roger perhaps ?)
The Guardian didn't at the time, both reporting it is a straightforward manner, and publishing critical opinion pieces.
I note Brand used the same political whataboutery he's engaging in now, as a pathetic form of self justification.
https://amp.theguardian.com/media/2008/oct/27/russell-brand-andrew-sachs
..."But sometimes you mustn't swear on someone's answerphone and that is why I would like to apologise personally."
He continued: "I would like to remind the Daily Mail [sic] that while it is a bit bad to leave a swearword on Andrew Sachs' answerphone, what's worse - leaving a swearword on Andrew Sachs' answerphone or tacitly supporting Adolf Hitler when he took charge of the Third Reich?"..
We’re working with @MCASBeaufortSC to locate an F-35 that was involved in a mishap this afternoon. The pilot ejected safely. If you have any information that may help our recovery teams locate the F-35, please call the Base Defense Operations Center at 843-963-3600.
https://x.com/teamcharleston/status/1703523385475534968
Questions for director general
The claims have raised serious questions for BBC director general Tim Davie who was the director of audio and music when Brand was forced to resign from Radio 2.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/09/17/bbc-urgently-investigating-claims-over-russell-brand/
Like the electronic HiPass card* for motorway tolls, you have to pay cash at most places you can recharge it.
Cash is going to around for quite a while in digitised S Korea.
*You can recharge this electronically, but you need a Korean bank account.
Brand appears to be the same character he was a decade and a half back. His political grift is just a business choice, not a belief.
I am very pleased with my predictions from yesterday - with one exception.
I said that South Africa would win by 60+. It was 72. But that was easy.
I said that Fiji would beat Australia by 5 pts. It was 7. Close enough.
I said that Japan would give England a tough time but they would eventually win by 20. Spot on.
I also said that England would score one or more tries. Done - but unfortunately l did not predict that England would score from a header.....how did I not see that.....
More predictions in mid week.
His fans still appear to be on the right.
When in reality the Corbyn bros are very much of similar beliefs, have been all their life and very much of the left. Those sort of views aren't anything new, and been talking points among the fringe left forever.
I don't think Russell Brand real politics are anything different than a lot of media luuvies i.e. not alt-right / far right. More very progressive on social issues, immigration, the environment, etc and talks a good game on being anti-billionaire, but in reality live very gilded lives and like most people do what they can to be tax efficient.
He has realised that he can sit in his shed and do an entertaining version of "just asking questions / reading out fringe journalism" and make millions, as there are lots of people out there that don't trust the MSM.
Of course, if he'd picked a decent Vice-President, rather than a token because it was "time", he might be handing the nomination over to him gracefully about now. But as it is, he'll certainly try to run again, given that he believes that beating Trump is a sacred duty, and there's no-one else who stands a chance. That may be narcissistic, but he's a senior politician so that goes with the territory.
And it's a fair pint that the belief set is somewhat orthogonal to conventional politics.
The difference is that it's now become the dominant strain of thought on the right in the US. And similarly in some right wing European parties.
I sincerely hope that doesn't happen here.
The simultaneously held beliefs on the right that abandoning Afghanistan was disastrous, while aiding Ukraine is a mistake, are bizarrely contradictory.
Though they can easily be explained as sheer antipathy to a Democratic president.
Lauren Boebert apologizes again for ‘maybe overtly animated’ behavior at theater
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/sep/17/lauren-boebert-apologizes-again-behavior-at-theater
Perhaps Brand could say his behaviour 'fell short of his values'.
If he had any.
Are you saying that leaving Afghanistan was a triumph? By showing the West's weakness it could have emboldened Putin to invade. And by lowering Biden's approval ratings from average to the worst since the war (apart from Carter) it could have handed Trump a second term. Never mind the effects on Afghani women, etc. Quite an achievement by a "very good" President ...
On Afghanistan, previous US Presidents have often ratted on decisions made by their predecessors, and the Taliban gave him enough excuses if he'd wanted to. Biden could have too. But he'd always hated America's commitments to the Afghan government, so he made the disastrous error of judgement that, as I say, may give Trump a second term.
The withdrawal could, and should have been better handled, but the decision was, IMO, inevitable.
The point I'm making is that the US spent billons in Afghanistan on an effort which was never going to succeed.
Ukraine is different, as the money (in reality mainly contribution from old military stocks) is being given to a country which is united in its desire for US support. And which is likely to prevail.
Afghanistan doesn't really figure from Ukraine's POV - and a US still embroiled there would have been far less likely to intervene in Ukraine, in my view.
It doresn't even cover as many time zones as modern France.
The chaotic, rushed, evacuation from Afghanistan was a clear signal to Putin that Biden's America would not stand up for countries outside of NATO. He invaded Ukraine just 6 months later.
That is certainly the view of General Tod Wolters, the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/afghanistan-debacle-played-role-in-putins-ukraine-decision-general-says
It's also the view of historian Dr Brian Brivati
https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/uk-world/3049983/putins-ukraine-invasion-given-massive-green-light-by-us-withdrawal-from-afghanistan-says-historian/
Likewise it is the view of former French President François Hollande:
“If Vladimir Putin decided to invade Ukraine, it was not due to a provocation from the Atlantic alliance […]. He understood that the global situation enabled him to go even further than he had anticipated. […] When the United States withdrew from Afghanistan, it showed signs of weakness, and Vladimir Putin interpreted it as a success for himself. Each of our withdrawals has been a new opportunity for his influence to grow. According to this dynamic, Vladimir Putin understood he could go very far if he wished so.
https://www.jurist.org/features/2022/04/20/analysis-did-natos-withdrawal-from-afghanistan-inspire-vladimir-putin-to-invade-ukraine/
And, on the subject of Ukraine, most of you will be aware that despite being one of those dreadful Leftie types, I argued from the outset that we should have installed a No Fly Zone over Ukraine.
You have to stand up to bullies.
But I think it's largely nonsense.
The Biden administration consistently warned Putin of consequences for at least a year running up to the invasion.
Putin calculated - wrongly - that the 'SMO' would be done before anyone had a chance to intervene.
The fait accompli calculation was very much based on what had happened in Crimea.
The Democratic President with the highest job approval rating since the Second World War is ... Bill Clinton.
Measure taken at time of leaving office. Data from Gallup.
https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/final-presidential-job-approval-ratings
I also think it's careless to dismiss such talk as 'conventional wisdom on the right.'
It's also naive to think that just because Biden warned Putin with words that this would make the difference. Putin is someone who reacts to actions not fine talking.
That you don't see the clear link between the chaotic American and Allied withdrawal from Afghanistan and the invasion of Ukraine 6 months later is, if I may say so, being rather deliberately obtuse. You may be right that Crimea had an effect, but in your zeal to pin it all on that, don't dismiss the rather more obvious cause and effect that most everyone else, including eminent analysts, accept.
...and it is, for largely self-serving reasons, the conventional wisdom on the right..
You're entitled to your judgment, as are those you cite. But I think they are wrong.
Afghanistan isn't clear 'cause and effect' - not least because the invasion was planned at least a year before it took place.
US intervention in that event would not have been military.
Biden could be on 0 unemployment and forced Russia to leave Ukraine including Crimea and he would still have not very good ratings compared.
EU heading for another bust up on money.
https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article247516930/Nord-gegen-Sued-in-der-EU-reissen-die-Graeben-der-Eurokrise-wieder-auf.html?source=puerto-reco-2_ABC-V32.5.A_control
The essential point here, made by all these eminent people, is that whilst it may have been in Putin's planning and thinking ... it was the rushed and chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal which 'gave the massive green light' for his invasion of Ukraine. Biden sent out a clear signal at the start of his Presidency that he would cease US military policing around the world. It was Putin's golden ticket.
That's what Putin's seen from the west's foreign policies over the last two decades; weakness. From Iraq, to Afghanistan, to Syria, to chemical weapons use in Syria, to MH17, to the 2014 invasion, to Georgia, etc, etc, the west's reaction has seen, to him, weak. And when we have responded with sanctions, for instance after Salisbury, he has also seen them as an annoyance, but weak.
And you can bet he only gets to hear about weakness from his advisors. He won't really be hearing of western leaders talking about strengthening Ukraine's hands; he'll be told abut the quislings who say we should pull out, how Putin's correct, how it's all our fault, etc, etc. I wouldn't be surprised if he believes that the public in the west are on Russia's side, and it's only these awful politicians being run by shadows behind the Ukrainian support.
(*) I also believe there is a time, perhaps a week or two before the invasion date, where it becomes increasingly hard to call it off.
France not keen on more migration
https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/lampedusa-gerald-darmanin-a-la-manoeuvre-avec-ses-homologues-de-l-ue-20230917
Nor is Germany
https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article247524368/Migrationskrise-Soeders-Obergrenze-Fuehrt-das-Asylsystem-voellig-in-die-Absurditaet-sagt-die-FDP.html?source=puerto-reco-2_ABC-V32.5.A_control
Nigelb wants more upright candidates like Susanna Gibson
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12522931/Virginia-porn-Dem-Susanna-Gibson-seen-time-X-rated-video-husband-leaked-online-constituents-rally-her.html
From Trump’s social media account
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/111083021216078581
Where does the time go?
But the west's reaction was not just about stopping the invasion; it's about how we would react *after* a Russian victory. There are claims that Russia wargamed this, and decided that the sanctions would be livable with - in fact, it is claimed they budgeted for the sanctions.
And he thought he would get only weak sanctions, not the strong sanctions he has received, because he saw the west as weak and divided. Our withdrawal from Afghanistan was another case where we showed weakness. If we had shown strength, it may have caused more doubts.
She is 5th favourite for President behind Biden, Trump, Newsom and DeSantis.
Yet I don't think I've seen a single post on this forum that has even mentioned her.
Do people think she is a serious possibility? The odds suggest that if Biden were to drop out she would have a very serious chance indeed.
Also, the odds suggest that IF she were to get the nomination, she would then be odds on favourite to win the Presidency.
many politicians reliant on Russian handoutsmuch of the economy based on cheap gas and grain.Russia's failure, and their behaviour, have shot that chance to pieces.
She's there because people have heard of her. No other reason.
She also won't be running. So she has the same chance as any other American who won't be running e.g. my cousin Delaney, which is zero.
As you know, the main reason why I didn't think Putin would be so stupid as to invade is that I didn't rate Russian chances of success as very high.
Back in the day when I briefly worked in east-west intelligence we were scornful about Russian might, thinking that it was somewhat exaggerated. Not out of some western ego trip but because they were overrated with inferior equipment and training.
I'm out of date on military matters (thankfully), much more so than others like yourself and @Sandpit on this forum, but I never rated their chances of winning this as very high.
And I still think we should have stood up to Putin from the outset with a No Fly Zone. It's the only language he speaks.
To win he just has to not change his mind and not die by June 2024. Even if primaried, he would surely win.
That looks like very good odds to me?
The sanctions are now really starting to bite Russia, and there’s some disquiet among the Moscovite upper-middle classes as they rely on grey-market imports for many Western luxuries that were previously taken for granted. Anyone with the means and ability to leave the country has done so, taking a huge amount of wealth out of the economy in the process.
It won't be, but I'd love it to be another Cornfield Bomber...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornfield_Bomber
Independence for Scotland hasn't really been predicated around a single individual since Charles Edward Stuart.
I don't think the cause is lost.
She’s said nothing to indicate she has any interest at all in running for any elected office, let alone the top job. She’s now wealthy beyond belief, and is enjoying her life just as it is.
And both of those were close-run things.
But the US administration's efforts in that respect were extensive, and prolonged.
That much of Europe, and Putin himself, ignored them has little to do with Afghanistan.
Reread this article:
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/02/24/russia-ukraine-war-oral-history-00083757
Heather might learn something from it, too.
I first posted it here days ago.
Incidentally, possibly illegally leaked by Republican activists.
Surprised that 12 hours later they still don’t know where it is, although of course these things are designed to look no bigger than a bird on primary radar. It could well be in the Atlantic, in which case there’s going to be one hell of a search operation launched to find it, lest the Chinese or the Russians get to it first.
I actually know someone who bailed out of a test flight in a prototype glider, after it became uncontrollable in flight - yet it somehow ended up landing at the airfield from which it had taken off, albeit rather heavily. The pilot landed a couple of miles away under his parachute, and was thankfully uninjured.
Good morning, everybody!
More likely its transponder was switched off / disabled, and the US military did not turn on, or get suitable radars into the area, in time.
(IANAE, WAG, etc, etc)
The consequences of a no fly zone - NATO pilots directly shooting down Russian aircraft and attacking Russian air defences deep inside Russia have been explained a number of times.
Helps me locate so many things.
That’s actually up on this date a year ago, and will make the inflation number this month much more difficult for the government.
As I’ve been saying for months, Western governments, especially those looking at an election next year - Mr Sunak and Mr Biden - need to persuade the OPEC countries to turn on the taps, and get Putin’s black market oil out of the world trade.
His decline has been notable in the last year and the campaign hasn't even started yet.