Lord Palmerston was eventually elected MP for Cambridge U, but in subsequent election, other Tories opposed to his proto-wokeism, tried to beat him by labeling him a Papist, on theory that Anglican clergymen who then comprised large chunk of eligible electorate would reject him. However, the Whigs saved Pam's bacon by NOT running any candidates and urging their supporters to vote for him.
In the words of one biographer:
He survived, and may well have concluded that, as most of his best friends were Whigs, and his mistresses wives and daughters of Whigs, he was perhaps in the wrong party.
Tho this might be Peak Puritanical Guardian Travel
Walking the length of the Wharfe sounds pleasant enough. Some nice scenery and a few very pleasant towns. And I like Bolton Abbey very much. Happy memories of hearing a child fall into the Wharfe while crossing the surprisingly treacherous stepping stones. Happy because improbably it wasn't my child, and I hadn't brought a change of clothes in case of that eventuality. Though more pleasant still to cycle it. The Dales are agreeably conducive to cycling, until you reach the end of the dale you're in and have to haul your fat arse over into the next dale. Though I'd quibble that the Wharfe is Yorkshire's most famous river. Strikes me as no more famous than the Ouse, Don, Nidd, Aire, Calder, Swale, Derwent, Tees or Hull.
I rather like British travel writing, as my MSN feed at work has clearly twigged. I like to read about places I might reasonably go - or, even better, about places I have been, and I can enjoy feeling cheerfully exasperated with the writer who has clearly Got It Wrong.
I like domestic British travel. We still live in a beautiful, historic country, for all our problems
Indeed I am about to set off on a mini UK road trip (expect pics of drinks in woods)
I am just empathising with the poor Guardian travel writers, forbidden to go anywhere exotic. My guess is the more talented ones will simply leave
Moral character is less profitable than cheating, lying and grifting. Think of the shareholders!
To go back to byelections briefly, there are a three main scenarios: 1. Lab/LD engage in a dick-measuring contest and the Tories win 2. As above only Lab or LD win despite the willy waving 3. One of Lab / LD backs down and the other wins
The general public have shown that they are good at diescerning who the ABC candidate is, and I anticipate that the first proper poll to come out after the GoNads incident will show them the way.
My party (LD) clearly thinks it is winnable. Labour appear to be in the same place. Both with some justification. So the challenge now is what happens if the informal arrangements elsewhere don't happen here...?
Issue for Labour is they can't give the Lib Dems a clear run because there is no other campaign they can focus their troops on...
Which is the only thing Nadine has done as a favour for Rishi - as Labour need to be seen to campaign they could easily spilit the vote and let a Tory sneak through the middle.
Which is actually a decent result for Labour as the seat would likely be a Labour seat (and probably would become one at the next general election) were the Lib Dems not actively campaigning.
There is a blindness / arrogance / stupidity with some Labour activists that their way is the only way. That everyone should vote Labour and therefore all seats could be won. Whats more they point to results like winning Canterbury or Kensington and Chelski as proof of this.
Whilst its true that seats can swing in previously unthinkable ways, you also have to accept that your way is not the only way and that Other People may see things differently. But if Mid Beds voters put us 1st and them 2nd I can't them accepting it. If the Tories then hold the seat that would be blamed on us...
In general voters inclined to vote tactically will do so for the party previously in second place, unless the level of campaigning makes it obvious that they aren't bothering. I don't think it's arrogant to suggest that the LibDems really didn't need to go all out in a seat where their vote in the last two election was 6% and 12% - after all, at the GE, if they designate everywhere where they came second in 2019 as targets, they will be more than busy, without also trying for seats where they came third. In the same spirit, Labour didn't make Somerton and Frome a priority - Labour had 12% there in 2019 and quite rightly didn't make a significant effort in the by-election, just as the LibDems in Selby (on 8.6% in 2019) didn't bother much there.
The problem, which we could all see coming, is that this isn't being fought at the same time as other by-elections, so the unofficial division of attention that happened with Somerton/Selby isn't possible. If the Tories win as a result, it will damage efforts for tactical voting elsewhere, which IMO isn't in anyone's interest but the Conservatives.
Agree with above - except for (perhaps) last sentence.
Because wouldn't yet another Tory by-election win due to oppo vote splitting, as in Uxbridge, but without ULEX factor, underline the need for better strategy re: tactical voting? Among likely GE voters as well as party activists and hacks?
The problem is that tactical voting only works if there is the sort of tacit restraint that we saw in Somerton and Selby. If one the alternatives go for everywhere hell for leather, then (a) it creates bad feeling and reluctance to support them even when they really are the obvious alternative and (b) it makes it genuinely hard to work out who the tactical voter should support.
I do see it's hard to resist when there's only one by-election running, but it's a pity.
There are 2 by-elections because there's also Rutherglen, and I don't think the LDs are trying there!
Nor are the SNP!
It is admittedly rather confusing that the Slab candidate has been adopting SNP rather than UKLab policies.
Anyone else looking forward to the Sam Bankman-Fried fraud trial later this year? It seems astonishing so many people bought into what was, at best, utterly incompetent blustering (that is his own defence after all, that he;'s an idiot not a crook), but the crypto world seems fertile ground for scammers.
Prosecutors have just written to the judge rebutting some of his attempts to get evidence excluded, some of which are pretty creative if prosecutors are accurate.
Notably, the defendant now complains about something he previously requested: on April 22, 2023, in a letter demand the defendant asked for a copy of all Slack messages, and his counsel reiterated that request on a telephone call four days later. It cannot be that the defendant can strategically make a record of discovery he claims he is entitled to but is not getting, and then when he gets it, move to preclude its use
They're also trying to bar all of the expert witnesses he wants to call in a separate matter. Should be fun, and has been surprisingly fast moving.
Fun fact - both parents of Bankman-Fraud (sp) are lawyers, and faculty members of Stanford Junior University Law School.
Given the people running FTX apparently dipped into customer accounts to pay for homes for themselves and relatives, among other things, you'd think they could have at least advised their son that he was at best butting up against the law.
They must be very proud of him - he claims to have been hopelessly bad at running FTX which is why it collapsed, and hasn't much to his name now as a result, but he could post a bail worth millions somehow, which shows real talent.
He was living in his parents home in lieu of prison until recently . . . when judge revoked his home detention on grounds that he was, among other things, engaged in witness intimidation, against his old girl friend, who worked for FTX but apparently was NOT included in the prime dining car of the bit-coin mega-grifter super-train.
Has anyone got a list of the financial crimes that weren’t committed at FTX?
I suspect his parents were proud of him till he got caught. It is the american attitude among those echelelons...rip people off all good..get caught you are a failure. Our similar class are exactly the same as I suspect are the elite of most countries
They're probably still proud - he still obviously has some amount of ill gotten gains left, which won't be totally eaten up by the criminal trial, which they can benefit from.
But then the civil complaints are still to come I believe.
If I ever have kids they are free to still love me but believe I should go to prison for any crimes I commit.
I should my kids should. It seems to be an attitude only prevalent among the little people though. I won't speak for everyone but frankly I am getting fed up with people taking the piss and getting off because they know people. Avoiding prison when someone like me would get it for far less and failing yet getting a good pay off and a promotion. Time we turn round and do something about it
You say you want a revolution?
Well, you know, we all want to change the world.
I didn't say I wanted a revolution. You misread me. I don't want a revolution because all it means is we get the same shits doing the same stuff just different faces. What I want is people being held to account so they no longer feel they can get away with it.
To give you an example...the lucy letby case....I want those managers on trial for complicity not allowed to be promoted elsewhere...or retire on health grounds. I want people like cressida dick to be on trial for her decisions that led to the assassination of an innocent electrician.
Sometimes people make mistakes and I accept that. If those mistakes however lead to deaths or maimings then they should be held to the same standards as anyone else.
As long as it’s a fair trial, that’s fine, but you seem to have decided, based solely on media reports, that they are guilty (specifically the Letby case). There has been media reports with only one take on events. It may be that the managers were egregiously bad in what they did. However I suspect that it is a very infrequent occurrence to be managing a serial killer, and normalcy bias tends to make people very cautious about suggesting such a thing. It’s possible that the managers were conned by Letby, that she was plausible and convincing. Many psychopaths can be charming. If the managers were fooled, what crime have they committed?
By all means investigate. If there is a reasonable chance of a conviction (I have no idea for what) then bring a case. If they are found guilty then fine.
But please do not find guilty on just media alone.
Jus\t noticed this: HMG had to drop plans to makje the inquiry non-statutory, so now they can compel witneses, with current and former staff especially in mind it seems. But no judge, no remit yet.
My point was really too often people seem to escape justice because they are too high up. I dont want them found summarily guilty. I do want their culpability examined in court and if charges are relevant they should be charged. Instead currently they seem to get a golden payoff and a promotion
There are different types of culpability and we really have to be clear which we're talking about:
1. Disciplinary culpability. Based on what I have read - which will not be a complete picture of course - there is probably some basis for saying that people did not behave as professionally as they should and failed to follow best practice etc.,. Some of that may be personal culpability but some will also be institutional failings eg a failure to have a proper investigation process or a whistleblowing process etc.,.
2. Criminal responsibility. This is very much harder. There are two possible offences: gross negligence manslaughter or corporate manslaughter. Hard to prove.
Important not to confuse the two. It is certainly vital to establish a sense of responsibility and accountability so that we do not get this endless rota of people being paid big bucks for responsible jobs but then exhibiting a lack of professionalism, taking no responsibility and moving on without suffering any consequences.
Whether the criminal law or disciplinary measures are the way to do that will depend on the evidence. But what is also needed is for these organisations to establish strong proper processes to deal with these difficult issues. From what I have read - not just on this case - the NHS has repeatedly failed to do so, despite endless reports telling it to do so and despite there being good examples in other sectors of exactly the sort of processes and teams they need. That - to me - pretty culpable failure is not just down to the managers but also the politicians and managers at the very top responsible for the NHS.
Thanks for this note of sanity.
One thing the NHS has us do at a recruitment level of undergrad pharmacy students is to attempt to screen for NHS values. It’s nonsense of course, but we have to do it and record it.
I would argue we should be aiming to instil said values in the training process rather than crudely trying to weed out psychopaths at 17.
I hope that the managers involved in the Letby case are horrified at what has happened. It seems clear that whistleblowing is hard to do, and resisted by the NHS, and individual trusts. I see it a bit at the Uni. We had four student deaths last year. I think at least three were suicide, but I don’t know for sure, as they are kept incredibly quiet. The uni would say they are respecting privacy, but I also think there is an element of reputational protection going on.
I hope the 'NHS values' are not as anodyne, twee, patronising and dishonest as the 'British values' bullshit the DfE makes us teach.
I always have a wry smile when I come to the one about respecting the rule of law, given how many of them not so much broke as sledgehammered their own lockdown rules.
They are pretty anodyne:
These are them on a medical school interview coaching site:
I personally don't find the answers very useful, but do stick to the interview script. I find a follow up question more useful along the lines "tell me about a time that you have been in conflict with a colleague" or "when have you not been treated with respect and dignity?"
Scenario based questions are a lot more revealing of people's attitudes than a pat answer. Sometimes examples are quite astonishing, but often very insightful.
sorry to go OT but I am somewhat dazed with the world this evening.
Been out for the evening and when I got back I popped on the old t'interweb thingy to see what has been happening in the world.
As usual I am greeted first and foremost by MSN news which seems to be the default start up page for Edge. I know I could change it but can't really be arsed. And it sometimes has some interesting bits of local news pop up.
And this evening it came up with a gem.
The headline was:
"More than a dozen square metres of forest, open land and water in South Kesteven developed upon"
I was intrigued and assumed it was a typo so I clicked on the link to see what it was actually supposed to be saying.
But I was wrong.
Under a picture of Michael Gove walking through whitehall the text of the article really did start with
"More than a dozen square metres of forest, open land and water in South Kesteven has been developed upon in the three years to March 2022, new figures show."
Now I know local news can be a bit parochial but has it really come to the point where an area of ground equivalent to 3mx4m being developed over a period of 3 years is concsidred in any way newsworthy, or why it is even measuraeable??
I mean I know there are a few NIMBYS lurking in the bushes out there but... (please excuse me all you Christians)
sorry to go OT but I am somewhat dazed with the world this evening.
Been out for the evening and when I got back I popped on the old t'interweb thingy to see what has been happening in the world.
As usual I am greeted first and foremost by MSN news which seems to be the default start up page for Edge. I know I could change it but can't really be arsed. And it sometimes has some interesting bits of local news pop up.
And this evening it came up with a gem.
The headline was:
"More than a dozen square metres of forest, open land and water in South Kesteven developed upon"
I was intrigued and assumed it was a typo so I clicked on the link to see what it was actually supposed to be saying.
But I was wrong.
Under a picture of Michael Gove walking through whitehall the text of the article really did start with
"More than a dozen square metres of forest, open land and water in South Kesteven has been developed upon in the three years to March 2022, new figures show."
Now I know local news can be a bit parochial but has it really come to the point where an area of ground equivalent to 3mx4m being developed over a period of 3 years is concsidred in any way newsworthy, or why it is even measuraeable??
I mean I know there are a few NIMBYS lurking in the bushes out there but... (please excuse me all you Christians)
As a Twitter advertiser, I can assure everyone that the Orban interview has not been watched 60 million times.
The Tweet containing the video has been seen 75 million times. The number of times the video has been viewed at all will be somewhere in the 2-10% range of that. And the number of people who watch more than the first two minutes will be dramatically smaller even than that.
At most, a million people - and probably a lot fewer than that - will have watched the video all the way through.
Leon was talking shite?
Except I wasn’t talking shite, was I?
I said exactly this in my original comments. Only a fraction of the bald number will actually watch the video
“Tucker Carlson’s Orban interview is now up to 60 million views
Probably only a fraction of these will watch large chunks or the whole thing. But even if it’s just 20% that’s 12 million people”
There you go.
20% is ludicrous.
The proportion of people on YouTube or Twitter or Instagram or Facebook who click the "play" button for stories in their feed is never more than 10%, and is usually more in the 4-6% range. Even if we assume that Carlson's Orban interview is at the high end of this, it would be 6 million people started viewing/listening.
But the number of people who will have got more than two minutes in will be - again - at most 25%. How do I know? Because that's what the best channels on YouTube manage. Most people flick off after 30 seconds onto the next thing. Maybe Carlson is beating Mark Rober's % to 2 minutes stats; but I doubt it.
But let's assume that (a) he gets to the absolute top of the "click play" charts, and gets 10%; and let's (b) assume that he matches the very best YouTube channels and gets 25% of people staying two minutes.
That's 1.25 million people.
Not 20 million.
And that 1.25 million is taking very generous assumptions.
He’s now on 85 million views
At some point you have to accept this is a new phenomenon, so the normal rules MIGHT not apply
Why don't you put your money where your mouth is.
We'll pay for a question to be put on a US YouGov poll, and ask how many people have watched the Orban Carlson interview on X/Twitter?
If more than 8% of American adults have watched it, then you win, and I pay for the poll.
If fewer, then I win and you pay.
Tech question: is there any way that bots and suchlike are prevented from creating "views" no real person is really viewing?
In all seriousness, it is entirely possible a portion of the views are bots.
sorry to go OT but I am somewhat dazed with the world this evening.
Been out for the evening and when I got back I popped on the old t'interweb thingy to see what has been happening in the world.
As usual I am greeted first and foremost by MSN news which seems to be the default start up page for Edge. I know I could change it but can't really be arsed. And it sometimes has some interesting bits of local news pop up.
And this evening it came up with a gem.
The headline was:
"More than a dozen square metres of forest, open land and water in South Kesteven developed upon"
I was intrigued and assumed it was a typo so I clicked on the link to see what it was actually supposed to be saying.
But I was wrong.
Under a picture of Michael Gove walking through whitehall the text of the article really did start with
"More than a dozen square metres of forest, open land and water in South Kesteven has been developed upon in the three years to March 2022, new figures show."
Now I know local news can be a bit parochial but has it really come to the point where an area of ground equivalent to 3mx4m being developed over a period of 3 years is concsidred in any way newsworthy, or why it is even measuraeable??
I mean I know there are a few NIMBYS lurking in the bushes out there but... (please excuse me all you Christians)
Anyone else looking forward to the Sam Bankman-Fried fraud trial later this year? It seems astonishing so many people bought into what was, at best, utterly incompetent blustering (that is his own defence after all, that he;'s an idiot not a crook), but the crypto world seems fertile ground for scammers.
Prosecutors have just written to the judge rebutting some of his attempts to get evidence excluded, some of which are pretty creative if prosecutors are accurate.
Notably, the defendant now complains about something he previously requested: on April 22, 2023, in a letter demand the defendant asked for a copy of all Slack messages, and his counsel reiterated that request on a telephone call four days later. It cannot be that the defendant can strategically make a record of discovery he claims he is entitled to but is not getting, and then when he gets it, move to preclude its use
They're also trying to bar all of the expert witnesses he wants to call in a separate matter. Should be fun, and has been surprisingly fast moving.
Fun fact - both parents of Bankman-Fraud (sp) are lawyers, and faculty members of Stanford Junior University Law School.
Given the people running FTX apparently dipped into customer accounts to pay for homes for themselves and relatives, among other things, you'd think they could have at least advised their son that he was at best butting up against the law.
They must be very proud of him - he claims to have been hopelessly bad at running FTX which is why it collapsed, and hasn't much to his name now as a result, but he could post a bail worth millions somehow, which shows real talent.
He was living in his parents home in lieu of prison until recently . . . when judge revoked his home detention on grounds that he was, among other things, engaged in witness intimidation, against his old girl friend, who worked for FTX but apparently was NOT included in the prime dining car of the bit-coin mega-grifter super-train.
Has anyone got a list of the financial crimes that weren’t committed at FTX?
I suspect his parents were proud of him till he got caught. It is the american attitude among those echelelons...rip people off all good..get caught you are a failure. Our similar class are exactly the same as I suspect are the elite of most countries
They're probably still proud - he still obviously has some amount of ill gotten gains left, which won't be totally eaten up by the criminal trial, which they can benefit from.
But then the civil complaints are still to come I believe.
If I ever have kids they are free to still love me but believe I should go to prison for any crimes I commit.
I should my kids should. It seems to be an attitude only prevalent among the little people though. I won't speak for everyone but frankly I am getting fed up with people taking the piss and getting off because they know people. Avoiding prison when someone like me would get it for far less and failing yet getting a good pay off and a promotion. Time we turn round and do something about it
You say you want a revolution?
Well, you know, we all want to change the world.
I didn't say I wanted a revolution. You misread me. I don't want a revolution because all it means is we get the same shits doing the same stuff just different faces. What I want is people being held to account so they no longer feel they can get away with it.
You say you got a real solution Well, you know We'd all love to see the plan
But if you go carrying pictures of Chairman Mao, you won't make it with anyone anyhow...
sorry to go OT but I am somewhat dazed with the world this evening.
Been out for the evening and when I got back I popped on the old t'interweb thingy to see what has been happening in the world.
As usual I am greeted first and foremost by MSN news which seems to be the default start up page for Edge. I know I could change it but can't really be arsed. And it sometimes has some interesting bits of local news pop up.
And this evening it came up with a gem.
The headline was:
"More than a dozen square metres of forest, open land and water in South Kesteven developed upon"
I was intrigued and assumed it was a typo so I clicked on the link to see what it was actually supposed to be saying.
But I was wrong.
Under a picture of Michael Gove walking through whitehall the text of the article really did start with
"More than a dozen square metres of forest, open land and water in South Kesteven has been developed upon in the three years to March 2022, new figures show."
Now I know local news can be a bit parochial but has it really come to the point where an area of ground equivalent to 3mx4m being developed over a period of 3 years is concsidred in any way newsworthy, or why it is even measuraeable??
I mean I know there are a few NIMBYS lurking in the bushes out there but... (please excuse me all you Christians)
I think it's an error. It should, according to the figures lower down in the article, be 242m2 which seems more reasonable.
The whole thing is badly written drivel.
Thats what I thought but no - the 242 square metres includes agricultural land, vacant sites and residential gardens. The forest, open land and water is just that 12 square metres.
Anyone else looking forward to the Sam Bankman-Fried fraud trial later this year? It seems astonishing so many people bought into what was, at best, utterly incompetent blustering (that is his own defence after all, that he;'s an idiot not a crook), but the crypto world seems fertile ground for scammers.
Prosecutors have just written to the judge rebutting some of his attempts to get evidence excluded, some of which are pretty creative if prosecutors are accurate.
Notably, the defendant now complains about something he previously requested: on April 22, 2023, in a letter demand the defendant asked for a copy of all Slack messages, and his counsel reiterated that request on a telephone call four days later. It cannot be that the defendant can strategically make a record of discovery he claims he is entitled to but is not getting, and then when he gets it, move to preclude its use
They're also trying to bar all of the expert witnesses he wants to call in a separate matter. Should be fun, and has been surprisingly fast moving.
Fun fact - both parents of Bankman-Fraud (sp) are lawyers, and faculty members of Stanford Junior University Law School.
Given the people running FTX apparently dipped into customer accounts to pay for homes for themselves and relatives, among other things, you'd think they could have at least advised their son that he was at best butting up against the law.
They must be very proud of him - he claims to have been hopelessly bad at running FTX which is why it collapsed, and hasn't much to his name now as a result, but he could post a bail worth millions somehow, which shows real talent.
He was living in his parents home in lieu of prison until recently . . . when judge revoked his home detention on grounds that he was, among other things, engaged in witness intimidation, against his old girl friend, who worked for FTX but apparently was NOT included in the prime dining car of the bit-coin mega-grifter super-train.
Has anyone got a list of the financial crimes that weren’t committed at FTX?
I suspect his parents were proud of him till he got caught. It is the american attitude among those echelelons...rip people off all good..get caught you are a failure. Our similar class are exactly the same as I suspect are the elite of most countries
They're probably still proud - he still obviously has some amount of ill gotten gains left, which won't be totally eaten up by the criminal trial, which they can benefit from.
But then the civil complaints are still to come I believe.
If I ever have kids they are free to still love me but believe I should go to prison for any crimes I commit.
I should my kids should. It seems to be an attitude only prevalent among the little people though. I won't speak for everyone but frankly I am getting fed up with people taking the piss and getting off because they know people. Avoiding prison when someone like me would get it for far less and failing yet getting a good pay off and a promotion. Time we turn round and do something about it
You say you want a revolution?
Well, you know, we all want to change the world.
I didn't say I wanted a revolution. You misread me. I don't want a revolution because all it means is we get the same shits doing the same stuff just different faces. What I want is people being held to account so they no longer feel they can get away with it.
You say you got a real solution Well, you know We'd all love to see the plan
But if you go carrying pictures of Chairman Mao, you won't make it with anyone anyhow...
Serious medical question, looking for experiences.
I had a 5 day course of chemo last week - a drug injected daily called Cladribine.
I had little reaction except for a mild rash about which my GP was quite relaxed.
I'm now getting a fair amount of feeling sick (been sick once or twice), and I am concerned about getting my diet wrong which might exasperate. I haven't yet quite felt the need to get an anti-emetic from the GP.
It's playing havoc with my insulin : food ratios (had to double doses pretty much), but that's par for the diabetic course and manageable.
I'm now on an antibiotic called Co-Trimoxazole which has a list of possible side-effects like the Doomsday Book.
The instructions are essentially to self-isolate.
Any experiences or practical advice (not medical advice obvs) would be welcome, as this is a time when I need to get quite a lot done.
sorry to go OT but I am somewhat dazed with the world this evening.
Been out for the evening and when I got back I popped on the old t'interweb thingy to see what has been happening in the world.
As usual I am greeted first and foremost by MSN news which seems to be the default start up page for Edge. I know I could change it but can't really be arsed. And it sometimes has some interesting bits of local news pop up.
And this evening it came up with a gem.
The headline was:
"More than a dozen square metres of forest, open land and water in South Kesteven developed upon"
I was intrigued and assumed it was a typo so I clicked on the link to see what it was actually supposed to be saying.
But I was wrong.
Under a picture of Michael Gove walking through whitehall the text of the article really did start with
"More than a dozen square metres of forest, open land and water in South Kesteven has been developed upon in the three years to March 2022, new figures show."
Now I know local news can be a bit parochial but has it really come to the point where an area of ground equivalent to 3mx4m being developed over a period of 3 years is concsidred in any way newsworthy, or why it is even measuraeable??
I mean I know there are a few NIMBYS lurking in the bushes out there but... (please excuse me all you Christians)
There's got to be a mistake in there somewhere. I know that those figures refer to a subset of development, but there were 485 homes built in South Kesteven in 2021/22 alone, according to the council's Annual Monitoring Report. I can't find any figure for 12 sq somethings, but it'll be there.
Serious medical question, looking for experiences.
I had a 5 day course of chemo last week - a drug injected daily called Cladribine.
I had little reaction except for a mild rash about which my GP was quite relaxed.
I'm now getting a fair amount of feeling sick (been sick once or twice), and I am concerned about getting my diet wrong which might exasperate. I haven't yet quite felt the need to get an anti-emetic from the GP.
It's playing havoc with my insulin : food ratios (had to double doses pretty much), but that's par for the diabetic course and manageable.
I'm now on an antibiotic called Co-Trimoxazole which has a list of possible side-effects like the Doomsday Book.
The instructions are essentially to self-isolate.
Any experiences or practical advice (not medical advice obvs) would be welcome, as this is a time when I need to get quite a lot done.
Sorry to read all this @MattW Afraid I have no advice as I dont know anything about this area, but best of luck with it all.
sorry to go OT but I am somewhat dazed with the world this evening.
Been out for the evening and when I got back I popped on the old t'interweb thingy to see what has been happening in the world.
As usual I am greeted first and foremost by MSN news which seems to be the default start up page for Edge. I know I could change it but can't really be arsed. And it sometimes has some interesting bits of local news pop up.
And this evening it came up with a gem.
The headline was:
"More than a dozen square metres of forest, open land and water in South Kesteven developed upon"
I was intrigued and assumed it was a typo so I clicked on the link to see what it was actually supposed to be saying.
But I was wrong.
Under a picture of Michael Gove walking through whitehall the text of the article really did start with
"More than a dozen square metres of forest, open land and water in South Kesteven has been developed upon in the three years to March 2022, new figures show."
Now I know local news can be a bit parochial but has it really come to the point where an area of ground equivalent to 3mx4m being developed over a period of 3 years is concsidred in any way newsworthy, or why it is even measuraeable??
I mean I know there are a few NIMBYS lurking in the bushes out there but... (please excuse me all you Christians)
There's got to be a mistake in there somewhere. I know that those figures refer to a subset of development, but there were 485 homes built in South Kesteven in 2021/22 alone, according to the council's Annual Monitoring Report. I can't find any figure for 12 sq somethings, but it'll be there.
September is shaping up to be very pleasant weatherwise in the UK, which is a positive thought.
Active hurricane season = pumped up high pressure in NE Atlantic.
Yet again the English wine industry is going to saved by a warm September after an atrociously disease-ridden July.
Tis a ill wind that blows no good.
However, do NOT expect Gov. Ron DeSantis boosting spirits (ahem) of hurricane-impacted Floridians, by pointing out the potential for obtaining even finer English wines.
Serious medical question, looking for experiences.
I had a 5 day course of chemo last week - a drug injected daily called Cladribine.
I had little reaction except for a mild rash about which my GP was quite relaxed.
I'm now getting a fair amount of feeling sick (been sick once or twice), and I am concerned about getting my diet wrong which might exasperate. I haven't yet quite felt the need to get an anti-emetic from the GP.
It's playing havoc with my insulin : food ratios (had to double doses pretty much), but that's par for the diabetic course and manageable.
I'm now on an antibiotic called Co-Trimoxazole which has a list of possible side-effects like the Doomsday Book.
The instructions are essentially to self-isolate.
Any experiences or practical advice (not medical advice obvs) would be welcome, as this is a time when I need to get quite a lot done.
Not quite sure what advice is needed. Co-trimoxazole does have a load of side effects, but is the agent of choice against some organisms.
They really don’t realise how lucky they are do they? On what a featherbed of wealth, power and liberty they lie.
One of the strange phenomena of the last decade. Year by year Americans get richer than everyone else, yet year by year they all get more convinced they’re facing the apocalypse.
[yes I know many in the US are poor (though richer than our poor) and most of them are very fat with life expectancy dropping. But most of the people moaning about America being in crisis are rich beyond most Brits’ wildest dreams]
sorry to go OT but I am somewhat dazed with the world this evening.
Been out for the evening and when I got back I popped on the old t'interweb thingy to see what has been happening in the world.
As usual I am greeted first and foremost by MSN news which seems to be the default start up page for Edge. I know I could change it but can't really be arsed. And it sometimes has some interesting bits of local news pop up.
And this evening it came up with a gem.
The headline was:
"More than a dozen square metres of forest, open land and water in South Kesteven developed upon"
I was intrigued and assumed it was a typo so I clicked on the link to see what it was actually supposed to be saying.
But I was wrong.
Under a picture of Michael Gove walking through whitehall the text of the article really did start with
"More than a dozen square metres of forest, open land and water in South Kesteven has been developed upon in the three years to March 2022, new figures show."
Now I know local news can be a bit parochial but has it really come to the point where an area of ground equivalent to 3mx4m being developed over a period of 3 years is concsidred in any way newsworthy, or why it is even measuraeable??
I mean I know there are a few NIMBYS lurking in the bushes out there but... (please excuse me all you Christians)
There's got to be a mistake in there somewhere. I know that those figures refer to a subset of development, but there were 485 homes built in South Kesteven in 2021/22 alone, according to the council's Annual Monitoring Report. I can't find any figure for 12 sq somethings, but it'll be there.
They really don’t realise how lucky they are do they? On what a featherbed of wealth, power and liberty they lie.
One of the strange phenomena of the last decade. Year by year Americans get richer than everyone else, yet year by year they all get more convinced they’re facing the apocalypse.
[yes I know many in the US are poor (though richer than our poor) and most of them are very fat with life expectancy dropping. But most of the people moaning about America being in crisis are rich beyond most Brits’ wildest dreams]
Because life for the average American really isn’t anything like life for the average European; it is considerably worse, in quite a few respects - fear of crime etc
They really don’t realise how lucky they are do they? On what a featherbed of wealth, power and liberty they lie.
One of the strange phenomena of the last decade. Year by year Americans get richer than everyone else, yet year by year they all get more convinced they’re facing the apocalypse.
[yes I know many in the US are poor (though richer than our poor) and most of them are very fat with life expectancy dropping. But most of the people moaning about America being in crisis are rich beyond most Brits’ wildest dreams]
Some of the other numbers in that poll are pretty bad for Biden:
Would you say things in this country today are... Generally headed in the right direction - 22% Off on the wrong track - 66%
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as President? Approve - 38% Disapprove - 55%
Do you want Joe Biden to run for president again in 2024? Yes - 22% No - 63%
Do you want Donald Trump to run for president again in 2024? Yes - 31% No - 57%
Would you say Joe Biden is a strong or a weak leader? Very strong - 11% Somewhat strong - 24% Somewhat weak - 24% Very weak - 41%
Would you say Donald Trump is a strong or a weak leader? Very strong - 32% Somewhat strong - 24% Somewhat weak - 13% Very weak - 31%
They really don’t realise how lucky they are do they? On what a featherbed of wealth, power and liberty they lie.
One of the strange phenomena of the last decade. Year by year Americans get richer than everyone else, yet year by year they all get more convinced they’re facing the apocalypse.
[yes I know many in the US are poor (though richer than our poor) and most of them are very fat with life expectancy dropping. But most of the people moaning about America being in crisis are rich beyond most Brits’ wildest dreams]
Because life for the average American really isn’t anything like life for the average European; it is considerably worse, in quite a few respects - fear of crime etc
Fear of annihilating cost of illness for a lot of people.
The Australian cardboard drones being used, whilst quite amusing, must be giving every government nightmares. Cardboard is radar absorbent, so provided it isn't raining, there's pretty much zero chance of intercepting them.
Range 75 miles, payload about 3kg, accuracy as good as you need, totally autonomous.
I could easily make one in my shed. Wiping out $100m aircraft with them seems...rather too good value.
They really don’t realise how lucky they are do they? On what a featherbed of wealth, power and liberty they lie.
One of the strange phenomena of the last decade. Year by year Americans get richer than everyone else, yet year by year they all get more convinced they’re facing the apocalypse.
[yes I know many in the US are poor (though richer than our poor) and most of them are very fat with life expectancy dropping. But most of the people moaning about America being in crisis are rich beyond most Brits’ wildest dreams]
Because life for the average American really isn’t anything like life for the average European; it is considerably worse, in quite a few respects - fear of crime etc
Fear of annihilating cost of illness for a lot of people.
Europeans have no idea of this.
So they vote for Trump. It’s Brexitesque.
They’re talking the evils of ultra processed food on Newsnight now. Fine, but what exactly is it? What precisely is the bad ingredient? Is it the salt, the sugar, the additives? Surely the process of processing itself doesn’t cause harm, does it? Just talk to us like adults!
They really don’t realise how lucky they are do they? On what a featherbed of wealth, power and liberty they lie.
One of the strange phenomena of the last decade. Year by year Americans get richer than everyone else, yet year by year they all get more convinced they’re facing the apocalypse.
[yes I know many in the US are poor (though richer than our poor) and most of them are very fat with life expectancy dropping. But most of the people moaning about America being in crisis are rich beyond most Brits’ wildest dreams]
Because life for the average American really isn’t anything like life for the average European; it is considerably worse, in quite a few respects - fear of crime etc
Fear of annihilating cost of illness for a lot of people.
Europeans have no idea of this.
This is true. For a lot of people. Albeit not most. Most pay for and expect a higher standard of care than in Europe (queues, low tech). It is also true that, on net, Americans send Europeans billions of dollars per year in collective global security and technological innovation.
They really don’t realise how lucky they are do they? On what a featherbed of wealth, power and liberty they lie.
One of the strange phenomena of the last decade. Year by year Americans get richer than everyone else, yet year by year they all get more convinced they’re facing the apocalypse.
[yes I know many in the US are poor (though richer than our poor) and most of them are very fat with life expectancy dropping. But most of the people moaning about America being in crisis are rich beyond most Brits’ wildest dreams]
Also, you rather airily dismiss the "drop in US life expectancy", but it is quite stunning when graphed against peer nations. No wonder Americans are unhappy. despite the "booming economy"
I'm intrigued if there has ever been such a fall, outside wartime, in an advanced nation?
They really don’t realise how lucky they are do they? On what a featherbed of wealth, power and liberty they lie.
One of the strange phenomena of the last decade. Year by year Americans get richer than everyone else, yet year by year they all get more convinced they’re facing the apocalypse.
[yes I know many in the US are poor (though richer than our poor) and most of them are very fat with life expectancy dropping. But most of the people moaning about America being in crisis are rich beyond most Brits’ wildest dreams]
Because life for the average American really isn’t anything like life for the average European; it is considerably worse, in quite a few respects - fear of crime etc
Fear of annihilating cost of illness for a lot of people.
Europeans have no idea of this.
So they vote for Trump. It’s Brexitesque.
They’re talking the evils of ultra processed food on Newsnight now. Fine, but what exactly is it? What precisely is the bad ingredient? Is it the salt, the sugar, the additives? Surely the process of processing itself doesn’t cause harm, does it? Just talk to us like adults!
It seems to be more than sugar salt and fat:
"The first study, which tracked 10,000 women for 15 years, found that those with the highest proportion of UPF in their diet were 39% more likely to develop high blood pressure than those with the lowest. This was the case even after academics adjusted for the effect of salt, sugar and fat."
InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022 · 6h 🚨 NEW NATIONAL POLL
(R) Trump: 44% [+4] (D) Biden: 43% [-1]
Truly depressing. What does Trump have to do to lose support. US democracy is hanging by a thread and half of America wants to end it .
My view as well. It is stunning. Half of americans, bought up to near worship of the constitution and belief in the shining hill, want to end it.
It is decadence on a historical scale.
We will all rue the day and soon.
Biden was the right candidate in 2020 but the wrong one now . We need someone to stand up and fight to save US democracy, passionate and younger . I like Biden but he needs to do the right thing.
Gretchen Whitmer would be a great candidate , tough as nails and will give Trump both barrels !
They really don’t realise how lucky they are do they? On what a featherbed of wealth, power and liberty they lie.
One of the strange phenomena of the last decade. Year by year Americans get richer than everyone else, yet year by year they all get more convinced they’re facing the apocalypse.
[yes I know many in the US are poor (though richer than our poor) and most of them are very fat with life expectancy dropping. But most of the people moaning about America being in crisis are rich beyond most Brits’ wildest dreams]
Because life for the average American really isn’t anything like life for the average European; it is considerably worse, in quite a few respects - fear of crime etc
Fear of annihilating cost of illness for a lot of people.
Europeans have no idea of this.
So they vote for Trump. It’s Brexitesque.
They’re talking the evils of ultra processed food on Newsnight now. Fine, but what exactly is it? What precisely is the bad ingredient? Is it the salt, the sugar, the additives? Surely the process of processing itself doesn’t cause harm, does it? Just talk to us like adults!
It seems to be more than sugar salt and fat:
"The first study, which tracked 10,000 women for 15 years, found that those with the highest proportion of UPF in their diet were 39% more likely to develop high blood pressure than those with the lowest. This was the case even after academics adjusted for the effect of salt, sugar and fat."
They really don’t realise how lucky they are do they? On what a featherbed of wealth, power and liberty they lie.
One of the strange phenomena of the last decade. Year by year Americans get richer than everyone else, yet year by year they all get more convinced they’re facing the apocalypse.
[yes I know many in the US are poor (though richer than our poor) and most of them are very fat with life expectancy dropping. But most of the people moaning about America being in crisis are rich beyond most Brits’ wildest dreams]
The very poor in the US ie the unemployed and those without health insurance are worse off than our poor as they have little welfare state, public housing or NHS to fall back on
They really don’t realise how lucky they are do they? On what a featherbed of wealth, power and liberty they lie.
One of the strange phenomena of the last decade. Year by year Americans get richer than everyone else, yet year by year they all get more convinced they’re facing the apocalypse.
[yes I know many in the US are poor (though richer than our poor) and most of them are very fat with life expectancy dropping. But most of the people moaning about America being in crisis are rich beyond most Brits’ wildest dreams]
Also, you rather airily dismiss the "drop in US life expectancy", but it is quite stunning when graphed against peer nations. No wonder Americans are unhappy. despite the "booming economy"
I'm intrigued if there has ever been such a fall, outside wartime, in an advanced nation?
Um, three things
That Y-axis doesn't start at zero
"Comparable country"?
Did anything happen in 2021 that suppressed life expectancy. I seem to remember one nutter on PB banging on about it.
They really don’t realise how lucky they are do they? On what a featherbed of wealth, power and liberty they lie.
One of the strange phenomena of the last decade. Year by year Americans get richer than everyone else, yet year by year they all get more convinced they’re facing the apocalypse.
[yes I know many in the US are poor (though richer than our poor) and most of them are very fat with life expectancy dropping. But most of the people moaning about America being in crisis are rich beyond most Brits’ wildest dreams]
Because life for the average American really isn’t anything like life for the average European; it is considerably worse, in quite a few respects - fear of crime etc
Fear of annihilating cost of illness for a lot of people.
Europeans have no idea of this.
So they vote for Trump. It’s Brexitesque.
They’re talking the evils of ultra processed food on Newsnight now. Fine, but what exactly is it? What precisely is the bad ingredient? Is it the salt, the sugar, the additives? Surely the process of processing itself doesn’t cause harm, does it? Just talk to us like adults!
It seems to be more than sugar salt and fat:
"The first study, which tracked 10,000 women for 15 years, found that those with the highest proportion of UPF in their diet were 39% more likely to develop high blood pressure than those with the lowest. This was the case even after academics adjusted for the effect of salt, sugar and fat."
"Evidence for the mechanisms underpinning the link between UPFs and adverse health outcomes is still emerging. Proposed mechanisms include a poor nutritional profile (i.e., UPFs are vectors for added sugars, sodium and trans-fats) and displacement of MPFs in the diet [33,34,35,58,108,109,110,111,112,113,114], higher glycaemic load and reduced gut–brain satiety signalling resulting from altered physical properties created by the processing of foods [115,116,117,118], carcinogens formed during high-temperature cooking (e.g., carbohydrate-rich foods with acrylamide) [119,120], and inflammatory responses linked with acellular nutrients and industrial food additives, gut microflora dysbiosis and increased intestinal permeability [98,121,122]. Certain properties of UPFs may promote overconsumption [123], including their often ubiquitous availability and convenience [124,125,126], palatability and quasi-addictiveness [127,128] and intensive marketing practices used to promote purchasing and consumption, especially among children and adolescents [129,130,131]."
Just watching sky news. How annoying is the phrase “leave no stone unturned”?
I’d love to see someone announce that there will be an enquiry, and that most stones will be turned but a few probably won’t be.
I see hurricane Idalia’s managed moderate coverage today. Not front page, but enough for a few reports on the TV news.
A stupid phrase, because everyone knows that many stones will be left unturned whatever happens.
Believe root of "no stone left unturned" verbiage in such situations, is because most of the audience AND the officials, do NOT have much idea of what actual due diligence in investigating them actually entails.
So resort to over-the-top stereotypical phraseology, received with increasing cynicism. Even when actual enquiry may prove useful, or at least not (another) whitewash.
They really don’t realise how lucky they are do they? On what a featherbed of wealth, power and liberty they lie.
One of the strange phenomena of the last decade. Year by year Americans get richer than everyone else, yet year by year they all get more convinced they’re facing the apocalypse.
[yes I know many in the US are poor (though richer than our poor) and most of them are very fat with life expectancy dropping. But most of the people moaning about America being in crisis are rich beyond most Brits’ wildest dreams]
Because life for the average American really isn’t anything like life for the average European; it is considerably worse, in quite a few respects - fear of crime etc
Fear of annihilating cost of illness for a lot of people.
Europeans have no idea of this.
So they vote for Trump. It’s Brexitesque.
They’re talking the evils of ultra processed food on Newsnight now. Fine, but what exactly is it? What precisely is the bad ingredient? Is it the salt, the sugar, the additives? Surely the process of processing itself doesn’t cause harm, does it? Just talk to us like adults!
This is why I believe legacy news media is doomed - and why I am intrigued by the phenomenon of Musk/Carlson. British mainstream news (for example) is so utterly trivial and childish. It is not remotely deep enough for the intelligent, it is of no interest to the stupid
The future might well be news experts bypassing legacy media entirely, and broadcasting direct from their own studios/crews to the world, where even an in-depth political interview can find millions of engaged viewers - via a platform like TwitterX
InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022 · 6h 🚨 NEW NATIONAL POLL
(R) Trump: 44% [+4] (D) Biden: 43% [-1]
If he wasn't facing criminal charges Trump would probably be the first President since Grover Cleveland in 1892 to have lost his re election bid but win the Presidency back again 4 years later.
However if he is convicted of criminal charges the evidence is Independents will abandon Trump and Biden would then beat him or an alternative GOP candidate as Trump voters stay home if he fails to be GOP nominee again.
The irony is had Trump gracefully accepted defeat in 2020 and not pushed his supporters to protest so aggressively (and left sensitive documents in DC) he would be probably heading back to the White House again
Interesting titbits of information about some holdups in the Trump Mar-a-Lago case. Despite being the simplest one on paper, the past, er, creative rulings of the judge in the same case naturally have opponents assume she's looking to kneecap the prosecution if she can. As a non lawyer I don't know if they're correct in this instance, bu as Trump found out himself this week, not everything a judge does is appealable, so there's presumably a lot of ways many judges could mess about if they want.
They really don’t realise how lucky they are do they? On what a featherbed of wealth, power and liberty they lie.
One of the strange phenomena of the last decade. Year by year Americans get richer than everyone else, yet year by year they all get more convinced they’re facing the apocalypse.
[yes I know many in the US are poor (though richer than our poor) and most of them are very fat with life expectancy dropping. But most of the people moaning about America being in crisis are rich beyond most Brits’ wildest dreams]
Also, you rather airily dismiss the "drop in US life expectancy", but it is quite stunning when graphed against peer nations. No wonder Americans are unhappy. despite the "booming economy"
I'm intrigued if there has ever been such a fall, outside wartime, in an advanced nation?
Um, three things
That Y-axis doesn't start at zero
"Comparable country"?
Did anything happen in 2021 that suppressed life expectancy. I seem to remember one nutter on PB banging on about it.
Covid happened everywhere. Amongst advanced nations, only America saw this precipitous decline (which, by the way, is not disputed by anyone with a brain)
"A dramatic fall in life expectancy
With rare exceptions, life expectancy has been on the rise in the US: it was 47 years in 1900, 68 years in 1950, and by 2019 it had risen to nearly 79 years. But it fell to 77 in 2020 and dropped further, to just over 76, in 2021. That's the largest decrease over a two-year span since the 1920s. "
To go back to byelections briefly, there are a three main scenarios: 1. Lab/LD engage in a dick-measuring contest and the Tories win 2. As above only Lab or LD win despite the willy waving 3. One of Lab / LD backs down and the other wins
The general public have shown that they are good at diescerning who the ABC candidate is, and I anticipate that the first proper poll to come out after the GoNads incident will show them the way.
My party (LD) clearly thinks it is winnable. Labour appear to be in the same place. Both with some justification. So the challenge now is what happens if the informal arrangements elsewhere don't happen here...?
Issue for Labour is they can't give the Lib Dems a clear run because there is no other campaign they can focus their troops on...
Which is the only thing Nadine has done as a favour for Rishi - as Labour need to be seen to campaign they could easily spilit the vote and let a Tory sneak through the middle.
Which is actually a decent result for Labour as the seat would likely be a Labour seat (and probably would become one at the next general election) were the Lib Dems not actively campaigning.
There is a blindness / arrogance / stupidity with some Labour activists that their way is the only way. That everyone should vote Labour and therefore all seats could be won. Whats more they point to results like winning Canterbury or Kensington and Chelski as proof of this.
Whilst its true that seats can swing in previously unthinkable ways, you also have to accept that your way is not the only way and that Other People may see things differently. But if Mid Beds voters put us 1st and them 2nd I can't them accepting it. If the Tories then hold the seat that would be blamed on us...
In general voters inclined to vote tactically will do so for the party previously in second place, unless the level of campaigning makes it obvious that they aren't bothering. I don't think it's arrogant to suggest that the LibDems really didn't need to go all out in a seat where their vote in the last two election was 6% and 12% - after all, at the GE, if they designate everywhere where they came second in 2019 as targets, they will be more than busy, without also trying for seats where they came third. In the same spirit, Labour didn't make Somerton and Frome a priority - Labour had 12% there in 2019 and quite rightly didn't make a significant effort in the by-election, just as the LibDems in Selby (on 8.6% in 2019) didn't bother much there.
The problem, which we could all see coming, is that this isn't being fought at the same time as other by-elections, so the unofficial division of attention that happened with Somerton/Selby isn't possible. If the Tories win as a result, it will damage efforts for tactical voting elsewhere, which IMO isn't in anyone's interest but the Conservatives.
Agree with above - except for (perhaps) last sentence.
Because wouldn't yet another Tory by-election win due to oppo vote splitting, as in Uxbridge, but without ULEX factor, underline the need for better strategy re: tactical voting? Among likely GE voters as well as party activists and hacks?
The problem is that tactical voting only works if there is the sort of tacit restraint that we saw in Somerton and Selby. If one the alternatives go for everywhere hell for leather, then (a) it creates bad feeling and reluctance to support them even when they really are the obvious alternative and (b) it makes it genuinely hard to work out who the tactical voter should support.
I do see it's hard to resist when there's only one by-election running, but it's a pity.
There are 2 by-elections because there's also Rutherglen, and I don't think the LDs are trying there!
Nor are the SNP!
It is admittedly rather confusing that the Slab candidate has been adopting SNP rather than UKLab policies.
It's been more popular to do so in the past 15 years in fairness.
Serious medical question, looking for experiences.
I had a 5 day course of chemo last week - a drug injected daily called Cladribine.
I had little reaction except for a mild rash about which my GP was quite relaxed.
I'm now getting a fair amount of feeling sick (been sick once or twice), and I am concerned about getting my diet wrong which might exasperate. I haven't yet quite felt the need to get an anti-emetic from the GP.
It's playing havoc with my insulin : food ratios (had to double doses pretty much), but that's par for the diabetic course and manageable.
I'm now on an antibiotic called Co-Trimoxazole which has a list of possible side-effects like the Doomsday Book.
The instructions are essentially to self-isolate.
Any experiences or practical advice (not medical advice obvs) would be welcome, as this is a time when I need to get quite a lot done.
Very sorry to hear this. From personal experience I’ve found MacMillan very helpful on the phone and Maggie’s centres very good for in person advice.
InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022 · 6h 🚨 NEW NATIONAL POLL
(R) Trump: 44% [+4] (D) Biden: 43% [-1]
Truly depressing. What does Trump have to do to lose support. US democracy is hanging by a thread and half of America wants to end it .
My view as well. It is stunning. Half of americans, bought up to near worship of the constitution and belief in the shining hill, want to end it.
It is decadence on a historical scale.
We will all rue the day and soon.
Biden was the right candidate in 2020 but the wrong one now . We need someone to stand up and fight to save US democracy, passionate and younger . I like Biden but he needs to do the right thing.
Gretchen Whitmer would be a great candidate , tough as nails and will give Trump both barrels !
It's too late given Biden has made clear he's running - a better candidate won't run against him, and it's pretty clear people can be well past it and still stagger on.
They really don’t realise how lucky they are do they? On what a featherbed of wealth, power and liberty they lie.
One of the strange phenomena of the last decade. Year by year Americans get richer than everyone else, yet year by year they all get more convinced they’re facing the apocalypse.
[yes I know many in the US are poor (though richer than our poor) and most of them are very fat with life expectancy dropping. But most of the people moaning about America being in crisis are rich beyond most Brits’ wildest dreams]
Also, you rather airily dismiss the "drop in US life expectancy", but it is quite stunning when graphed against peer nations. No wonder Americans are unhappy. despite the "booming economy"
I'm intrigued if there has ever been such a fall, outside wartime, in an advanced nation?
Um, three things
That Y-axis doesn't start at zero
"Comparable country"?
Did anything happen in 2021 that suppressed life expectancy. I seem to remember one nutter on PB banging on about it.
Covid happened everywhere. Amongst advanced nations, only America saw this precipitous decline (which, by the way, is not disputed by anyone with a brain)
"A dramatic fall in life expectancy
With rare exceptions, life expectancy has been on the rise in the US: it was 47 years in 1900, 68 years in 1950, and by 2019 it had risen to nearly 79 years. But it fell to 77 in 2020 and dropped further, to just over 76, in 2021. That's the largest decrease over a two-year span since the 1920s. "
Mostly Covid - literally, it explained almost 60% of the drop. So US life expectancy will surge again by 2022. Guns are a fringe factor; Europeans have their own substitutes for guns. Opioids are worse, obesity is worse but more a co-morbidity factor with the other things and not something that causes you to die itself, otherwise obesity rates would be extremely low everywhere.
InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022 · 6h 🚨 NEW NATIONAL POLL
(R) Trump: 44% [+4] (D) Biden: 43% [-1]
Truly depressing. What does Trump have to do to lose support. US democracy is hanging by a thread and half of America wants to end it .
My view as well. It is stunning. Half of americans, bought up to near worship of the constitution and belief in the shining hill, want to end it.
It is decadence on a historical scale.
We will all rue the day and soon.
I've always been rather impressed by the earnestness of american fervour for their constitution, for all it can seem a bit silly in its mythologising at times. Sure, most will not know it as well as they think they do, but they do generally seem to know more about their government and its basic principles than most British people do of ours. There was a kind of charm to the attachment to stuff pieces of paper, which despite cracks had held up pretty well as a system.
But now even the basic idea of accepting when you've lost, applying the rule of law to all, are seen as weakness. It is way more than just a polarised political climate, it's genuinely warped into something where there's so little trust and goodwill which is necessary in a true democracy.
The GOP are by far the bigger offenders, but this shit rots a culture, and it could easily get even worse than it already is. Trump's made worse what was obviously already bad, but the people who back him, trust him more than their priests and families, they are not kidding.
Americans also integrate diverse immigrants into job markets instead of concrete ghettoes at city fringes.
They also bring kids into the world, unlike Germany or China. That would seem to be the biggest vote of confidence.
The German birthrate is 1.58, America's is 1.64. This is not a significant difference
When one is persistently higher than the other year on year, yes it is. It would not be significant if they rapidly dipped above and below each other. They don't.
Serious medical question, looking for experiences.
I had a 5 day course of chemo last week - a drug injected daily called Cladribine.
I had little reaction except for a mild rash about which my GP was quite relaxed.
I'm now getting a fair amount of feeling sick (been sick once or twice), and I am concerned about getting my diet wrong which might exasperate. I haven't yet quite felt the need to get an anti-emetic from the GP.
It's playing havoc with my insulin : food ratios (had to double doses pretty much), but that's par for the diabetic course and manageable.
I'm now on an antibiotic called Co-Trimoxazole which has a list of possible side-effects like the Doomsday Book.
The instructions are essentially to self-isolate.
Any experiences or practical advice (not medical advice obvs) would be welcome, as this is a time when I need to get quite a lot done.
Get somebody in to look after you, if you haven't already got one. The side-effects of chemo can be hideous and dependent on the intensity there may be times when you will not be able to properly function.
Other than that...
Things like soft cheerful food (ice-cream! jelly!) will help your mouth and your spirits if your gums/tongue are affected.
Take measures you feel appropriate to deal with the shits if you get them. Adult diapers and waterproof sheets are available.
Don't be afraid to cry or feel rubbish.
If you can practicably set aside work, do so.
As for your statement that "this is a time when you need to get a lot done", please remember you can get fuck-all done if you're dead, so please do the minimum consonant with staying alive.
Remember that you will get thru this and no matter how hard it seems there will come a time when you are looking at this thru the rear-view mirror, so your mission is to stay alive between now and then
[EDIT: Hartley's Sugar-free jelly is available from Tescos, Sainsburys and Waitrose]
Averages cover everybody. If you are a European who moves to America and you do not increase your intake of harmful food and drugs, you won't die six years faster. Actually, your hospital care will likely be better. But if you start taking dangerous drugs, or denying that vaccines are effective, this may change things.
They really don’t realise how lucky they are do they? On what a featherbed of wealth, power and liberty they lie.
One of the strange phenomena of the last decade. Year by year Americans get richer than everyone else, yet year by year they all get more convinced they’re facing the apocalypse.
[yes I know many in the US are poor (though richer than our poor) and most of them are very fat with life expectancy dropping. But most of the people moaning about America being in crisis are rich beyond most Brits’ wildest dreams]
Also, you rather airily dismiss the "drop in US life expectancy", but it is quite stunning when graphed against peer nations. No wonder Americans are unhappy. despite the "booming economy"
I'm intrigued if there has ever been such a fall, outside wartime, in an advanced nation?
Um, three things
That Y-axis doesn't start at zero
"Comparable country"?
Did anything happen in 2021 that suppressed life expectancy. I seem to remember one nutter on PB banging on about it.
Covid happened everywhere. Amongst advanced nations, only America saw this precipitous decline (which, by the way, is not disputed by anyone with a brain)
"A dramatic fall in life expectancy
With rare exceptions, life expectancy has been on the rise in the US: it was 47 years in 1900, 68 years in 1950, and by 2019 it had risen to nearly 79 years. But it fell to 77 in 2020 and dropped further, to just over 76, in 2021. That's the largest decrease over a two-year span since the 1920s. "
Mostly Covid - literally, it explained almost 60% of the drop. So US life expectancy will surge again by 2022. Guns are a fringe factor; Europeans have their own substitutes for guns. Opioids are worse, obesity is worse but more a co-morbidity factor with the other things and not something that causes you to die itself, otherwise obesity rates would be extremely low everywhere.
Except, US life expectancy did not surge in 2022. It flatlined at best
"Opinion American life expectancy is dropping — and it’s not all covid’s fault"
"plotting life expectancy in the United States against that of other wealthy countries reveals three dark insights: Our life spans lag behind those of our peers; our life expectancy was already more or less flat, not growing; and most other countries bounced back from covid-19 in the second year of the pandemic, while we went into further decline."
With the drug problem acrually worsening, cf Tranq, my bet is this trend will likely continue
But Europeans should really not feel complacent, if these drugs cross into Europe (and there are worrying signs in London and Scotland in the UK) we too could take the same dreadful road
Serious medical question, looking for experiences.
I had a 5 day course of chemo last week - a drug injected daily called Cladribine.
I had little reaction except for a mild rash about which my GP was quite relaxed.
I'm now getting a fair amount of feeling sick (been sick once or twice), and I am concerned about getting my diet wrong which might exasperate. I haven't yet quite felt the need to get an anti-emetic from the GP.
It's playing havoc with my insulin : food ratios (had to double doses pretty much), but that's par for the diabetic course and manageable.
I'm now on an antibiotic called Co-Trimoxazole which has a list of possible side-effects like the Doomsday Book.
The instructions are essentially to self-isolate.
Any experiences or practical advice (not medical advice obvs) would be welcome, as this is a time when I need to get quite a lot done.
Get somebody in to look after you, if you haven't already got one. The side-effects of chemo can be hideous and dependent on the intensity there may be times when you will not be able to properly function.
Other than that...
Things like soft cheerful food (ice-cream! jelly!) will help your mouth and your spirits if your gums/tongue are affected.
Take measures you feel appropriate to deal with the shits if you get them. Adult diapers and waterproof sheets are available.
Don't be afraid to cry or feel rubbish.
If you can practicably set aside work, do so.
As for your statement that "this is a time when you need to get a lot done", please remember you can get fuck-all done if you're dead, so please do the minimum consonant with staying alive.
Remember that you will get thru this and no matter how hard it seems there will come a time when you are looking at this thru the rear-view mirror, so your mission is to stay alive between now and then
[EDIT: Hartley's Sugar-free jelly is available from Tescos, Sainsburys and Waitrose]
They really don’t realise how lucky they are do they? On what a featherbed of wealth, power and liberty they lie.
One of the strange phenomena of the last decade. Year by year Americans get richer than everyone else, yet year by year they all get more convinced they’re facing the apocalypse.
[yes I know many in the US are poor (though richer than our poor) and most of them are very fat with life expectancy dropping. But most of the people moaning about America being in crisis are rich beyond most Brits’ wildest dreams]
Also, you rather airily dismiss the "drop in US life expectancy", but it is quite stunning when graphed against peer nations. No wonder Americans are unhappy. despite the "booming economy"
I'm intrigued if there has ever been such a fall, outside wartime, in an advanced nation?
Um, three things
That Y-axis doesn't start at zero
"Comparable country"?
Did anything happen in 2021 that suppressed life expectancy. I seem to remember one nutter on PB banging on about it.
Covid happened everywhere. Amongst advanced nations, only America saw this precipitous decline (which, by the way, is not disputed by anyone with a brain)
"A dramatic fall in life expectancy
With rare exceptions, life expectancy has been on the rise in the US: it was 47 years in 1900, 68 years in 1950, and by 2019 it had risen to nearly 79 years. But it fell to 77 in 2020 and dropped further, to just over 76, in 2021. That's the largest decrease over a two-year span since the 1920s. "
Mostly Covid - literally, it explained almost 60% of the drop. So US life expectancy will surge again by 2022. Guns are a fringe factor; Europeans have their own substitutes for guns. Opioids are worse, obesity is worse but more a co-morbidity factor with the other things and not something that causes you to die itself, otherwise obesity rates would be extremely low everywhere.
Except, US life expectancy did not surge in 2022. It flatlined at best
"Opinion American life expectancy is dropping — and it’s not all covid’s fault"
"plotting life expectancy in the United States against that of other wealthy countries reveals three dark insights: Our life spans lag behind those of our peers; our life expectancy was already more or less flat, not growing; and most other countries bounced back from covid-19 in the second year of the pandemic, while we went into further decline."
With the drug problem acrually worsening, cf Tranq, my bet is this trend will likely continue
But Europeans should really not feel complacent, if these drugs cross into Europe (and there are worrying signs in London and Scotland in the UK) we too could take the same dreadful road
The United States has not published life expectancy figures for 2022. There is a range of estimates online, some pointing toward half of the drop since 2019 having been made up during 2022 due to improvements in COVID-19 outcomes. But no point being conclusive until the official figures are released.
"Hearing a mini reshuffle will take place tomorrow, with a rather unexpected appointment as Defence Secretary.
And it's Transfer Deadline Day on Friday.
Two Christmas Days in a row for the likes of me!"
Nadine Dorries at the MoD? Tbh I'm a bit sceptical of any leaks. The Telegraph claims to have heard rumours of Liam Fox returning fwiw, with or without his mate.
Martina Navratilova revisits the question of trans athletes five years after falling foul of activists, and comes to the conclusion that she was right to begin with:
Fairness was on my mind in 2018 when I inadvertently got swept up in the trans athletes-in-women’s-sports maelstrom with this tweet: “Clearly that can’t be right. You can’t just proclaim yourself a female and be able to compete against women.”
I got attacked like crazy on Twitter. Wanting to be open-minded and respectful, I took the tweet down and promised to educate myself, and for the past five years, I’ve been doing that.
They really don’t realise how lucky they are do they? On what a featherbed of wealth, power and liberty they lie.
One of the strange phenomena of the last decade. Year by year Americans get richer than everyone else, yet year by year they all get more convinced they’re facing the apocalypse.
[yes I know many in the US are poor (though richer than our poor) and most of them are very fat with life expectancy dropping. But most of the people moaning about America being in crisis are rich beyond most Brits’ wildest dreams]
Also, you rather airily dismiss the "drop in US life expectancy", but it is quite stunning when graphed against peer nations. No wonder Americans are unhappy. despite the "booming economy"
I'm intrigued if there has ever been such a fall, outside wartime, in an advanced nation?
Um, three things
That Y-axis doesn't start at zero
"Comparable country"?
Did anything happen in 2021 that suppressed life expectancy. I seem to remember one nutter on PB banging on about it.
Covid happened everywhere. Amongst advanced nations, only America saw this precipitous decline (which, by the way, is not disputed by anyone with a brain)
"A dramatic fall in life expectancy
With rare exceptions, life expectancy has been on the rise in the US: it was 47 years in 1900, 68 years in 1950, and by 2019 it had risen to nearly 79 years. But it fell to 77 in 2020 and dropped further, to just over 76, in 2021. That's the largest decrease over a two-year span since the 1920s. "
Mostly Covid - literally, it explained almost 60% of the drop. So US life expectancy will surge again by 2022. Guns are a fringe factor; Europeans have their own substitutes for guns. Opioids are worse, obesity is worse but more a co-morbidity factor with the other things and not something that causes you to die itself, otherwise obesity rates would be extremely low everywhere.
Except, US life expectancy did not surge in 2022. It flatlined at best
"Opinion American life expectancy is dropping — and it’s not all covid’s fault"
"plotting life expectancy in the United States against that of other wealthy countries reveals three dark insights: Our life spans lag behind those of our peers; our life expectancy was already more or less flat, not growing; and most other countries bounced back from covid-19 in the second year of the pandemic, while we went into further decline."
With the drug problem acrually worsening, cf Tranq, my bet is this trend will likely continue
But Europeans should really not feel complacent, if these drugs cross into Europe (and there are worrying signs in London and Scotland in the UK) we too could take the same dreadful road
The United States has not published life expectancy figures for 2022. There is a range of estimates online, some pointing toward half of the drop since 2019 having been made up during 2022 due to improvements in COVID-19 outcomes. But no point being conclusive until the official figures are released.
Nonetheless you have made a sequence of assertions which, on analysis, turn out to be bullshit - eg you implied America's birthrate is way higher than Germany's. It is not. I suggest you do a little more research
"Hearing a mini reshuffle will take place tomorrow, with a rather unexpected appointment as Defence Secretary.
And it's Transfer Deadline Day on Friday.
Two Christmas Days in a row for the likes of me!"
Unexpected appointment is a handy journalistic phrase since it covers pretty much everything.
He could put in my MP, Andrew Murrison, who's been a junior minister in defence, foreign office and NI, many times, but is probably unknown to almost everyone else - that would be unexpected (sadly, Wiltshire already has effectively two Cabinet Ministers already if you include Chief Secretary to the Treasury).
Or he could bring back Theresa May into government.
And everything in between.
To not be 'unexpected' it would have to be one of around half a dozen 'high flyers' or half a dozen 'safe hands' who are not in government already, or someone already in government.
Virtually no one in the world plays top level Cricket or Rugby, I can't imagine the rule setters are that bothered about formalities - they already have the West Indies (although might as well not).
They really don’t realise how lucky they are do they? On what a featherbed of wealth, power and liberty they lie.
One of the strange phenomena of the last decade. Year by year Americans get richer than everyone else, yet year by year they all get more convinced they’re facing the apocalypse.
[yes I know many in the US are poor (though richer than our poor) and most of them are very fat with life expectancy dropping. But most of the people moaning about America being in crisis are rich beyond most Brits’ wildest dreams]
Because life for the average American really isn’t anything like life for the average European; it is considerably worse, in quite a few respects - fear of crime etc
Fear of annihilating cost of illness for a lot of people.
Europeans have no idea of this.
Most workers will have medical insurance with their job, and oldies have Medicare. Fwiw I've never met an American with a paralysing fear of crime or health costs.
This stuff is absolutely lethal. Fentanyl plus Tranq. We must absolutely pray that this shit does not take a grip on UK cities the way it has in America. Or we are fucked
Frankly, I am not optimistic. But maybe we will dodge the bullet
They really don’t realise how lucky they are do they? On what a featherbed of wealth, power and liberty they lie.
One of the strange phenomena of the last decade. Year by year Americans get richer than everyone else, yet year by year they all get more convinced they’re facing the apocalypse.
[yes I know many in the US are poor (though richer than our poor) and most of them are very fat with life expectancy dropping. But most of the people moaning about America being in crisis are rich beyond most Brits’ wildest dreams]
Also, you rather airily dismiss the "drop in US life expectancy", but it is quite stunning when graphed against peer nations. No wonder Americans are unhappy. despite the "booming economy"
I'm intrigued if there has ever been such a fall, outside wartime, in an advanced nation?
Um, three things
That Y-axis doesn't start at zero
"Comparable country"?
Did anything happen in 2021 that suppressed life expectancy. I seem to remember one nutter on PB banging on about it.
Covid happened everywhere. Amongst advanced nations, only America saw this precipitous decline (which, by the way, is not disputed by anyone with a brain)
"A dramatic fall in life expectancy
With rare exceptions, life expectancy has been on the rise in the US: it was 47 years in 1900, 68 years in 1950, and by 2019 it had risen to nearly 79 years. But it fell to 77 in 2020 and dropped further, to just over 76, in 2021. That's the largest decrease over a two-year span since the 1920s. "
Mostly Covid - literally, it explained almost 60% of the drop. So US life expectancy will surge again by 2022. Guns are a fringe factor; Europeans have their own substitutes for guns. Opioids are worse, obesity is worse but more a co-morbidity factor with the other things and not something that causes you to die itself, otherwise obesity rates would be extremely low everywhere.
Except, US life expectancy did not surge in 2022. It flatlined at best
"Opinion American life expectancy is dropping — and it’s not all covid’s fault"
"plotting life expectancy in the United States against that of other wealthy countries reveals three dark insights: Our life spans lag behind those of our peers; our life expectancy was already more or less flat, not growing; and most other countries bounced back from covid-19 in the second year of the pandemic, while we went into further decline."
With the drug problem acrually worsening, cf Tranq, my bet is this trend will likely continue
But Europeans should really not feel complacent, if these drugs cross into Europe (and there are worrying signs in London and Scotland in the UK) we too could take the same dreadful road
The United States has not published life expectancy figures for 2022. There is a range of estimates online, some pointing toward half of the drop since 2019 having been made up during 2022 due to improvements in COVID-19 outcomes. But no point being conclusive until the official figures are released.
Nonetheless you have made a sequence of assertions which, on analysis, turn out to be bullshit - eg you implied America's birthrate is way higher than Germany's. It is not. I suggest you do a little more research
A difference of 0.1 to 0.4 in TFR, structurally and persistently higher, matters. In terms that matter a lot to Germany: it could be the difference between importing an extra million immigrants every decade or not. In any case, an implication is in the eye of the beholder, whereas saying "life expectancy did not surge in 2022" is a statement of fact, which I admit is not normal Leon territory (that's bipolar doomer-booster feelings).
Commissioners of Irish Lights, established by Act of Irish Parliament in 1786, were and still are responsible for overseeing coast lighthouses and other navigational aids for all Ireland.
Somehow the Irish in all four provinces manage to cope.
"Hearing a mini reshuffle will take place tomorrow, with a rather unexpected appointment as Defence Secretary.
And it's Transfer Deadline Day on Friday.
Two Christmas Days in a row for the likes of me!"
Unexpected appointment is a handy journalistic phrase since it covers pretty much everything.
He could put in my MP, Andrew Murrison, who's been a junior minister in defence, foreign office and NI, many times, but is probably unknown to almost everyone else - that would be unexpected (sadly, Wiltshire already has effectively two Cabinet Ministers already if you include Chief Secretary to the Treasury).
Or he could bring back Theresa May into government.
And everything in between.
To not be 'unexpected' it would have to be one of around half a dozen 'high flyers' or half a dozen 'safe hands' who are not in government already, or someone already in government.
Or something lunatic like putting Braverman there ......
It's a pretty disingenuous argument to try and treat the by-election record over the whole of this parliament as in any way relevant to the outcome of a by-election held now. For the first half of the period since the 2019 general election the Conservatives were consistently leading the polls, and Labour only established consistent a double digit polling lead around the end of September 2022. Circumstances now are very different as Labour has maintained that double-digit lead, now averaging not far short of 20%.
Surely it's only the by-elections in the context of current polling that should inform thinking, which means those of the past year and specifically the Conservative defences. Of those only of Somerton and Selby are of general relevance, the impact of ULEZ in Uxbridge making it a poor wider example. If the swings in Somerton and Selby were applied to Mid-Bedfordshire they would deliver victories in Mid-Bedfordshire for the LDs and Lab respectively. All that really shows us is that both parties are capable of generating huge swings when starting in 2nd place. Those swings would be sufficient in both cases to take Mid-Bedfordshire.
In the circumstances, it is surely better to fall back on current opinion polling as a guide to which party should be judged best positioned to challenge the Conservatives.
I have taken as the starting point the latest national YouGov poll and applied the UNS shown as a default to the Mid-Bedfordshire 2019 result. You get: Con 39.5% Lab 32.8% LD 9.8% Green 9.0% Reform 9.0% You can pick other recent polls (YouGov have a 20% Lab lead, R&W only a 16% Lab lead for example) but the stark contrast between the Lab and LD vote shares would not alter much.
The only other relevant polling is the one local poll which had Lab 28%, Con 24%, Independent 19%, LD 15% and Reform UK 10%. But that's now nearly 2 months old.
"Hearing a mini reshuffle will take place tomorrow, with a rather unexpected appointment as Defence Secretary.
And it's Transfer Deadline Day on Friday.
Two Christmas Days in a row for the likes of me!"
Unexpected appointment is a handy journalistic phrase since it covers pretty much everything.
He could put in my MP, Andrew Murrison, who's been a junior minister in defence, foreign office and NI, many times, but is probably unknown to almost everyone else - that would be unexpected (sadly, Wiltshire already has effectively two Cabinet Ministers already if you include Chief Secretary to the Treasury).
Or he could bring back Theresa May into government.
And everything in between.
To not be 'unexpected' it would have to be one of around half a dozen 'high flyers' or half a dozen 'safe hands' who are not in government already, or someone already in government.
Or something lunatic like putting Braverman there ......
No joke, it would have been less crazy putting her there in the first place than the Home Office, since if nothing else it would have meant not reappointing her to the same position she'd just quit from, providing a figleaf of 'taking responsibility' (if unconvincingly).
Worth noting we had heard there could be a reshuffle within days back in July. They do love to tease us.
Not a fan of 'mini-reshuffles' though. Even knowing that going in commentators start getting excited and do updates as if it was a full one, only 97% of posts are 'no change'.
How does it benefit dealers and traffickers if a large number of your customers die off very quickly? I'm not sure it does. It's a bit like lethality in viruses. How does it benefit the virus if it infects a carrier so badly the carrier karks it? That person is no longer a carrier
There is a theory, which I find increasingly plausible, that China is simply pumping this shit into America, deliberately, so as to fuck America over. Via the Mexican drug cartels
Revenge for the Opium Wars. Britain would be next on the list of targets
This stuff is absolutely lethal. Fentanyl plus Tranq. We must absolutely pray that this shit does not take a grip on UK cities the way it has in America. Or we are fucked
Frankly, I am not optimistic. But maybe we will dodge the bullet
The authorities need to take real and urgent action against this drug, unlike the situation in the United States.
He can hardly apologise after all now after his mum puts herself in hospital to protest his treatment, not if he wants to retain good son points (though he could, just maybe, not behaved inappropriately in the first place, to earn those points)
This stuff is absolutely lethal. Fentanyl plus Tranq. We must absolutely pray that this shit does not take a grip on UK cities the way it has in America. Or we are fucked
Frankly, I am not optimistic. But maybe we will dodge the bullet
The authorities need to take real and urgent action against this drug, unlike the situation in the United States.
Anyone who has it in their possession should go straight to prison for many years. It is THAT dangerous
Trouble is, we don't have the stomach (or the money?) to fight it this fiercely, and there are also problems with basic detection. The drug is so novel we do not have easy tests to apply, AIUI
"Hearing a mini reshuffle will take place tomorrow, with a rather unexpected appointment as Defence Secretary.
And it's Transfer Deadline Day on Friday.
Two Christmas Days in a row for the likes of me!"
Unexpected appointment is a handy journalistic phrase since it covers pretty much everything.
He could put in my MP, Andrew Murrison, who's been a junior minister in defence, foreign office and NI, many times, but is probably unknown to almost everyone else - that would be unexpected (sadly, Wiltshire already has effectively two Cabinet Ministers already if you include Chief Secretary to the Treasury).
Or he could bring back Theresa May into government.
And everything in between.
To not be 'unexpected' it would have to be one of around half a dozen 'high flyers' or half a dozen 'safe hands' who are not in government already, or someone already in government.
Or something lunatic like putting Braverman there ......
No joke, it would have been less crazy putting her there in the first place than the Home Office, since if nothing else it would have meant not reappointing her to the same position she'd just quit from, providing a figleaf of 'taking responsibility' (if unconvincingly).
Worth noting we had heard there could be a reshuffle within days back in July. They do love to tease us.
Not a fan of 'mini-reshuffles' though. Even knowing that going in commentators start getting excited and do updates as if it was a full one, only 97% of posts are 'no change'.
Are you telling us, that Rishi Sunak is soon to preside, over the Night of the Short Knives?
(Or as we colonials would say, the Night of the Pen Knives.)
As a Twitter advertiser, I can assure everyone that the Orban interview has not been watched 60 million times.
The Tweet containing the video has been seen 75 million times. The number of times the video has been viewed at all will be somewhere in the 2-10% range of that. And the number of people who watch more than the first two minutes will be dramatically smaller even than that.
At most, a million people - and probably a lot fewer than that - will have watched the video all the way through.
Leon was talking shite?
Except I wasn’t talking shite, was I?
I said exactly this in my original comments. Only a fraction of the bald number will actually watch the video
“Tucker Carlson’s Orban interview is now up to 60 million views
Probably only a fraction of these will watch large chunks or the whole thing. But even if it’s just 20% that’s 12 million people”
There you go.
20% is ludicrous.
The proportion of people on YouTube or Twitter or Instagram or Facebook who click the "play" button for stories in their feed is never more than 10%, and is usually more in the 4-6% range. Even if we assume that Carlson's Orban interview is at the high end of this, it would be 6 million people started viewing/listening.
But the number of people who will have got more than two minutes in will be - again - at most 25%. How do I know? Because that's what the best channels on YouTube manage. Most people flick off after 30 seconds onto the next thing. Maybe Carlson is beating Mark Rober's % to 2 minutes stats; but I doubt it.
But let's assume that (a) he gets to the absolute top of the "click play" charts, and gets 10%; and let's (b) assume that he matches the very best YouTube channels and gets 25% of people staying two minutes.
That's 1.25 million people.
Not 20 million.
And that 1.25 million is taking very generous assumptions.
He’s now on 85 million views
At some point you have to accept this is a new phenomenon, so the normal rules MIGHT not apply
Why don't you put your money where your mouth is.
We'll pay for a question to be put on a US YouGov poll, and ask how many people have watched the Orban Carlson interview on X/Twitter?
If more than 8% of American adults have watched it, then you win, and I pay for the poll.
If fewer, then I win and you pay.
I love this way of estimating support for things and I feel the urge (although it'll probably pass) to make a decentralized application for it. Put in a polling question, run a prediction market on the answer, and settle the market optimistically (to use the crypto-economic term) by only doing the poll if there's a disagreement where people are prepared to put their money where their mouth is and pay for the poll (in the expectation of being proved right and making a profit).
But what we need is a polling company that will actually do the poll if paid and report the result. Ideally we'd automate this, so nobody would have to call them up and negotiate with them: The whole thing would be run by smart contracts so the polling company would agree that if they received a payment on a blockchain and a message saying "this payment is to poll question X" they'd poll the question and send the answer back to the smart contract. It might be a nice fit with the thing Gnosis just made where they've got people building dueling AI bots and betting with each other to get real-time probabilities for things.
I wonder if this is the kind of thing YouGov would go for?
So if you try to kick the habit, you could easily die, and there is no known treatment to ameliorate this, as far as I can see. Meaning you have less than zero reason to try and get clean, and every possible reason to stay addicted
The "Alien" of street drugs? A perfectly weaponised narcotic
Comments
In the words of one biographer:
He survived, and may well have concluded that, as most of his best friends were Whigs, and his mistresses wives and daughters of Whigs, he was perhaps in the wrong party.
These are them on a medical school interview coaching site:
https://www.theukcatpeople.co.uk/post/understanding-six-nhs-core-values-uk-medicine-interview-questions
I personally don't find the answers very useful, but do stick to the interview script. I find a follow up question more useful along the lines "tell me about a time that you have been in conflict with a colleague" or "when have you not been treated with respect and dignity?"
Scenario based questions are a lot more revealing of people's attitudes than a pat answer. Sometimes examples are quite astonishing, but often very insightful.
And does this make Biden look good, or does it just remind voters of what happens to ageing politicians?
sorry to go OT but I am somewhat dazed with the world this evening.
Been out for the evening and when I got back I popped on the old t'interweb thingy to see what has been happening in the world.
As usual I am greeted first and foremost by MSN news which seems to be the default start up page for Edge. I know I could change it but can't really be arsed. And it sometimes has some interesting bits of local news pop up.
And this evening it came up with a gem.
The headline was:
"More than a dozen square metres of forest, open land and water in South Kesteven developed upon"
I was intrigued and assumed it was a typo so I clicked on the link to see what it was actually supposed to be saying.
But I was wrong.
Under a picture of Michael Gove walking through whitehall the text of the article really did start with
"More than a dozen square metres of forest, open land and water in South Kesteven has been developed upon in the three years to March 2022, new figures show."
Now I know local news can be a bit parochial but has it really come to the point where an area of ground equivalent
to 3mx4m being developed over a period of 3 years is concsidred in any way newsworthy, or why it is even measuraeable??
I mean I know there are a few NIMBYS lurking in the bushes out there but... (please excuse me all you Christians)
...Jesus H tap dancing Christ!!!.
Is this really news?
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/more-than-a-dozen-square-metres-of-forest-open-land-and-water-in-south-kesteven-developed-upon/ar-AA1fZZL1?
See https://www.theverge.com/2023/8/17/23836287/microsoft-ai-recommends-ottawa-food-bank-tourist-destination
I’d love to see someone announce that there will be an enquiry, and that most stones will be turned but a few probably won’t be.
I see hurricane Idalia’s managed moderate coverage today. Not front page, but enough for a few reports on the TV news.
The whole thing is badly written drivel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzLT6_TQmq8&t=48s
I had a 5 day course of chemo last week - a drug injected daily called Cladribine.
I had little reaction except for a mild rash about which my GP was quite relaxed.
I'm now getting a fair amount of feeling sick (been sick once or twice), and I am concerned about getting my diet wrong which might exasperate. I haven't yet quite felt the need to get an anti-emetic from the GP.
It's playing havoc with my insulin : food ratios (had to double doses pretty much), but that's par for the diabetic course and manageable.
I'm now on an antibiotic called Co-Trimoxazole which has a list of possible side-effects like the Doomsday Book.
The instructions are essentially to self-isolate.
Any experiences or practical advice (not medical advice obvs) would be welcome, as this is a time when I need to get quite a lot done.
Yet again the English wine industry is going to saved by a warm September after an atrociously disease-ridden July.
Interesting test for our new manager.
Under control 15%
Out of control 71%
.@YouGovAmerica/@TheEconomist, 1,500 Adults, 8/26-29
https://x.com/politics_polls/status/1696992945843438026
However, do NOT expect Gov. Ron DeSantis boosting spirits (ahem) of hurricane-impacted Floridians, by pointing out the potential for obtaining even finer English wines.
Bill Kristol
@BillKristol
·
7h
82% of Republican primary voters, as of now, prefer Trump/DeSantis/Ramaswamy.
I'm sure Sunak will announce that things have to be under control from now on and he will outlaw things being out of control.
Edit: my witty satire is undermined by this being a US poll...
InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022
·
6h
🚨 NEW NATIONAL POLL
(R) Trump: 44% [+4]
(D) Biden: 43% [-1]
https://www.newarkadvertiser.co.uk/news/anti-social-behaviour-forces-cancellation-of-firework-finale-9327911/
One of the strange phenomena of the last decade. Year by year Americans get richer than everyone else, yet year by year they all get more convinced they’re facing the apocalypse.
[yes I know many in the US are poor (though richer than our poor) and most of them are very fat with life expectancy dropping. But most of the people moaning about America being in crisis are rich beyond most Brits’ wildest dreams]
https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1696925359805968785?t=YV72po6v2Q37G6oAFWokNA&s=19
Would you say things in this country today are...
Generally headed in the right direction - 22%
Off on the wrong track - 66%
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as President?
Approve - 38%
Disapprove - 55%
Do you want Joe Biden to run for president again in 2024?
Yes - 22%
No - 63%
Do you want Donald Trump to run for president again in 2024?
Yes - 31%
No - 57%
Would you say Joe Biden is a strong or a weak leader?
Very strong - 11%
Somewhat strong - 24%
Somewhat weak - 24%
Very weak - 41%
Would you say Donald Trump is a strong or a weak leader?
Very strong - 32%
Somewhat strong - 24%
Somewhat weak - 13%
Very weak - 31%
Europeans have no idea of this.
The Australian cardboard drones being used, whilst quite amusing, must be giving every government nightmares. Cardboard is radar absorbent, so provided it isn't raining, there's pretty much zero chance of intercepting them.
Range 75 miles, payload about 3kg, accuracy as good as you need, totally autonomous.
I could easily make one in my shed. Wiping out $100m aircraft with them seems...rather too good value.
It is decadence on a historical scale.
We will all rue the day and soon.
They’re talking the evils of ultra processed food on Newsnight now. Fine, but what exactly is it? What precisely is the bad ingredient? Is it the salt, the sugar, the additives? Surely the process of processing itself doesn’t cause harm, does it? Just talk to us like adults!
After intensive research consisting of at least two minutes of googling, only thing I found, is twitter feed.
I'm intrigued if there has ever been such a fall, outside wartime, in an advanced nation?
They also bring kids into the world, unlike Germany or China. That would seem to be the biggest vote of confidence.
"The first study, which tracked 10,000 women for 15 years, found that those with the highest proportion of UPF in their diet were 39% more likely to develop high blood pressure than those with the lowest. This was the case even after academics adjusted for the effect of salt, sugar and fat."
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/aug/27/ultra-processed-food-raises-risk-of-heart-attack-and-stroke-two-studies-show?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
Gretchen Whitmer would be a great candidate , tough as nails and will give Trump both barrels !
"US birth rates are at record lows – even though the number of kids most Americans say they want has held steady"
https://theconversation.com/us-birth-rates-are-at-record-lows-even-though-the-number-of-kids-most-americans-say-they-want-has-held-steady-197270#:~:text=In 2007, average birth rates,t interested in having children?
Do PB-ers not have access to Google?
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/aif0ri8ye5/econtoplines.pdf
https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/12/7/1955
So resort to over-the-top stereotypical phraseology, received with increasing cynicism. Even when actual enquiry may prove useful, or at least not (another) whitewash.
The future might well be news experts bypassing legacy media entirely, and broadcasting direct from their own studios/crews to the world, where even an in-depth political interview can find millions of engaged viewers - via a platform like TwitterX
Carlson/Orban is now on 94 million "views"
https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1696643892253466712?s=20
However if he is convicted of criminal charges the evidence is Independents will abandon Trump and Biden would then beat him or an alternative GOP candidate as Trump voters stay home if he fails to be GOP nominee again.
The irony is had Trump gracefully accepted defeat in 2020 and not pushed his supporters to protest so aggressively (and left sensitive documents in DC) he would be probably heading back to the White House again
https://www.publicnotice.co/p/judge-aileen-cannon-trump-florida-documents-case?utm_medium=email
"A dramatic fall in life expectancy
With rare exceptions, life expectancy has been on the rise in the US: it was 47 years in 1900, 68 years in 1950, and by 2019 it had risen to nearly 79 years. But it fell to 77 in 2020 and dropped further, to just over 76, in 2021. That's the largest decrease over a two-year span since the 1920s. "
https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/why-life-expectancy-in-the-us-is-falling-202210202835#:~:text=A dramatic fall in life,just%2, 0over%2076%2C%20in%202021.
Opioids, guns, obesity, Covid
Steve
But now even the basic idea of accepting when you've lost, applying the rule of law to all, are seen as weakness. It is way more than just a polarised political climate, it's genuinely warped into something where there's so little trust and goodwill which is necessary in a true democracy.
The GOP are by far the bigger offenders, but this shit rots a culture, and it could easily get even worse than it already is. Trump's made worse what was obviously already bad, but the people who back him, trust him more than their priests and families, they are not kidding.
Other than that...
- Things like soft cheerful food (ice-cream! jelly!) will help your mouth and your spirits if your gums/tongue are affected.
- Take measures you feel appropriate to deal with the shits if you get them. Adult diapers and waterproof sheets are available.
- Don't be afraid to cry or feel rubbish.
- If you can practicably set aside work, do so.
- As for your statement that "this is a time when you need to get a lot done", please remember you can get fuck-all done if you're dead, so please do the minimum consonant with staying alive.
- Remember that you will get thru this and no matter how hard it seems there will come a time when you are looking at this thru the rear-view mirror, so your mission is to stay alive between now and then
[EDIT: Hartley's Sugar-free jelly is available from Tescos, Sainsburys and Waitrose]"Hearing a mini reshuffle will take place tomorrow, with a rather unexpected appointment as Defence Secretary.
And it's Transfer Deadline Day on Friday.
Two Christmas Days in a row for the likes of me!"
"Opinion American life expectancy is dropping — and it’s not all covid’s fault"
"plotting life expectancy in the United States against that of other wealthy countries reveals three dark insights: Our life spans lag behind those of our peers; our life expectancy was already more or less flat, not growing; and most other countries bounced back from covid-19 in the second year of the pandemic, while we went into further decline."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/06/01/american-life-expectancy-decline-covid/
With the drug problem acrually worsening, cf Tranq, my bet is this trend will likely continue
But Europeans should really not feel complacent, if these drugs cross into Europe (and there are worrying signs in London and Scotland in the UK) we too could take the same dreadful road
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ireland_cricket_team
Deepest sympathies to you, @MattW
Remember PB is always here if you want a friendly voice, or an insane, ill-informed argument
Get well!
https://genspect.org/martina-navratilova-five-years-later/
Fairness was on my mind in 2018 when I inadvertently got swept up in the trans athletes-in-women’s-sports maelstrom with this tweet: “Clearly that can’t be right. You can’t just proclaim yourself a female and be able to compete against women.”
I got attacked like crazy on Twitter. Wanting to be open-minded and respectful, I took the tweet down and promised to educate myself, and for the past five years, I’ve been doing that.
He could put in my MP, Andrew Murrison, who's been a junior minister in defence, foreign office and NI, many times, but is probably unknown to almost everyone else - that would be unexpected (sadly, Wiltshire already has effectively two Cabinet Ministers already if you include Chief Secretary to the Treasury).
Or he could bring back Theresa May into government.
And everything in between.
To not be 'unexpected' it would have to be one of around half a dozen 'high flyers' or half a dozen 'safe hands' who are not in government already, or someone already in government.
The whole of Ireland unites with GB to form the rugby union British Lions tours though
Virtually no one in the world plays top level Cricket or Rugby, I can't imagine the rule setters are that bothered about formalities - they already have the West Indies (although might as well not).
https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/first-death-uk-associated-with-xylazine
"Corner of London turns into zombieland"
https://www.mylondon.news/news/east-london-news/corner-london-looks-like-zombie-27527881
This stuff is absolutely lethal. Fentanyl plus Tranq. We must absolutely pray that this shit does not take a grip on UK cities the way it has in America. Or we are fucked
Frankly, I am not optimistic. But maybe we will dodge the bullet
Somehow the Irish in all four provinces manage to cope.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commissioners_of_Irish_Lights
It's a pretty disingenuous argument to try and treat the by-election record over the whole of this parliament as in any way relevant to the outcome of a by-election held now. For the first half of the period since the 2019 general election the Conservatives were consistently leading the polls, and Labour only established consistent a double digit polling lead around the end of September 2022. Circumstances now are very different as Labour has maintained that double-digit lead, now averaging not far short of 20%.
Surely it's only the by-elections in the context of current polling that should inform thinking, which means those of the past year and specifically the Conservative defences. Of those only of Somerton and Selby are of general relevance, the impact of ULEZ in Uxbridge making it a poor wider example. If the swings in Somerton and Selby were applied to Mid-Bedfordshire they would deliver victories in Mid-Bedfordshire for the LDs and Lab respectively. All that really shows us is that both parties are capable of generating huge swings when starting in 2nd place. Those swings would be sufficient in both cases to take Mid-Bedfordshire.
In the circumstances, it is surely better to fall back on current opinion polling as a guide to which party should be judged best positioned to challenge the Conservatives.
I have taken as the starting point the latest national YouGov poll and applied the UNS shown as a default to the Mid-Bedfordshire 2019 result. You get:
Con 39.5%
Lab 32.8%
LD 9.8%
Green 9.0%
Reform 9.0%
You can pick other recent polls (YouGov have a 20% Lab lead, R&W only a 16% Lab lead for example) but the stark contrast between the Lab and LD vote shares would not alter much.
The only other relevant polling is the one local poll which had Lab 28%, Con 24%, Independent 19%, LD 15% and Reform UK 10%. But that's now nearly 2 months old.
Worth noting we had heard there could be a reshuffle within days back in July. They do love to tease us.
Not a fan of 'mini-reshuffles' though. Even knowing that going in commentators start getting excited and do updates as if it was a full one, only 97% of posts are 'no change'.
"Luis Rubiales' mother taken to hospital on third day of hunger strike"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/66664374
"Docs struggling for answers as flesh-rotting ‘zombie drug’ tranq grips NY"
https://nypost.com/2023/08/28/zombie-drug-tranq-leaves-illegal-narcotics-more-potent-while-making-it-even-harder-for-opioid-addicts-to-quit-doctors-say/
How does it benefit dealers and traffickers if a large number of your customers die off very quickly? I'm not sure it does. It's a bit like lethality in viruses. How does it benefit the virus if it infects a carrier so badly the carrier karks it? That person is no longer a carrier
There is a theory, which I find increasingly plausible, that China is simply pumping this shit into America, deliberately, so as to fuck America over. Via the Mexican drug cartels
Revenge for the Opium Wars. Britain would be next on the list of targets
Trouble is, we don't have the stomach (or the money?) to fight it this fiercely, and there are also problems with basic detection. The drug is so novel we do not have easy tests to apply, AIUI
(Or as we colonials would say, the Night of the Pen Knives.)
But what we need is a polling company that will actually do the poll if paid and report the result. Ideally we'd automate this, so nobody would have to call them up and negotiate with them: The whole thing would be run by smart contracts so the polling company would agree that if they received a payment on a blockchain and a message saying "this payment is to poll question X" they'd poll the question and send the answer back to the smart contract. It might be a nice fit with the thing Gnosis just made where they've got people building dueling AI bots and betting with each other to get real-time probabilities for things.
I wonder if this is the kind of thing YouGov would go for?
"Tranq withdrawal can also cause potentially fatal seizures"
https://nypost.com/2023/08/28/zombie-drug-tranq-leaves-illegal-narcotics-more-potent-while-making-it-even-harder-for-opioid-addicts-to-quit-doctors-say/
So if you try to kick the habit, you could easily die, and there is no known treatment to ameliorate this, as far as I can see. Meaning you have less than zero reason to try and get clean, and every possible reason to stay addicted
The "Alien" of street drugs? A perfectly weaponised narcotic