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Leaving the ECHR would cost the Tories dear – politicalbetting.com

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  • Perhaps because the other Democracies you allude to have never sought to bind their neighbours to their own vision of democracy and law through a voluntary convention. We chose to devise a system to ensure that our neighbours adhered to a set of standards that we wished to promote. It seems perverse for us to now disown those standards and that system for petty party political advantage - which is all this is really about.
    We chose to bind all sorts of other countries in the past to our visions, its imperialistic and we've largely turned our back on that.

    We also have a domestic principle that no Parliament can bind its successors, so if any Parliament votes to change the decisions of the past, that is entirely democratic.

    I don't find it at all perverse to disown standards if those standards no long suit our interests or the modern world. Our closest friends and allies that share our principles of Parliamentary democracy aren't even a part of the ECHR anyway, so there's no real reason other than basic inertia why we have to be.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,189

    To be fair, the EU countries are not handing over African asylum seekers to the Libyan Coastguard to enslave.

    They are paying the Libyans to do all the work - the catching, the imprisonment, the lot.
    And it is happening out with the jurisdiction of the court. By countries who are subject to it. So that’s alright.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,189

    The market is waiting for closer relations, and business leaders/foreign investors would very much welcome a speech from Keir once he is PM declaring a close to the destructive policies of the last 7 years, and the opening of a new phase.

    Like the Windsor Accords?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    .

    It’s one of a genre of cars built from aero engines. They are all pretty unique.

    My favourite is https://www.bobpetersenengineering.co.uk/petersen-27-litre-meteor

    Fiat S76 “Beast of Turin” for me. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsdWgmp4TaQ

    Or perhaps John Dodd’s famous Merlin-engined custom from the 1970s. https://www.classicdriver.com/en/article/cars/john-dodd-and-merlin-engined-monstrosity-infuriated-rolls-royce
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,402
    TimS said:

    Well it’s true, he didn’t prosecute her. Can’t say fairer than that. He also failed to prosecute Anders Breivik, and the DPP didn’t even open a file on Osama Bin Laden.
    Presumably he also has a sister who is a thespian?
  • Yet we're told trans people are the threat.

    Man who killed California store owner tore down Pride flag and shouted slurs

    Shooter had history of posting hateful content online, sheriff says, and shot Laura Ann Carleton with gun not registered to him


    A 27-year-old man who fatally shot a store owner in California had torn down her Pride flag and shouted homophobic slurs, officials said on Monday.

    Laura Ann Carleton, 66, who went by “Lauri”, died at the scene of the shooting on Friday outside her Mag.Pi clothing store in Cedar Glen, an unincorporated community in the mountains roughly 60 miles (100km) east of Los Angeles.

    San Bernardino’s county sheriff, Shannon Dicus, identified the shooter as Travis Ikeguchi in a Monday press conference. Ikeguchi fled on foot, and when he was confronted by officers, he opened fire on them and hit multiple squad cars, Dicus said. Sheriff’s deputies fired back and fatally shot Ikeguchi a mile from the store.


    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/aug/22/man-shot-california-store-owner-tore-down-pride-flag-shouted-slurs
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,948

    Since referendums are often a verdict on the government of the day rather than the substantive issue why wouldn’t you think referendum polling is the same?
    Surely all the more reason Brexit isn’t going to save the red wall for Rishi in the next election.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,567
    Barnesian said:

    What he means by meaning is the way he uses meaning, just like I am.
    EDIT I hope that clarifies what I mean.
    I prefer Humpty Dumpty:

    “When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.’
  • DavidL said:

    Like the Windsor Accords?
    Only Norn Iron benefits.

    What's good enough for Belfast should be available to Bangor, Birmingham, and Banff.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited August 2023
    National/Act are not quite a a cert in NZ yet.

    It’s possible NZFirst (NZ’s answer to UKIP) might return to parliament, they are polling just shy of the 5% threshold.

    If they do, then National/Act are reduced to a majority of 1 under the latest poll, and they would typically need to nominate a Speaker beside.

    Having said that, Labour look screwed.
    There’s a lesson in here for Keir somewhere.
    Labour/Ardern came to power with great hopes, but their governance has been inept and beholden to incredibly sloppy, left-wing dogma.

    The country is in a kind of cultural impasse and although National/Act don’t look to be offering much there might be a return of some kind of grip.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited August 2023
    TimS said:

    On the basis of this polling most red wall seats would now be majority rejoin.
    No they wouldn't, most redwall seats were 60-70% Leave and Starmer couldn't become PM without them.

    Plus the rejoin vote would split between Labour and the LDs while the keep Brexit vote would largely stick with the Conservatives
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    Brexit is dead.
    We just haven’t figured out how to dispose of the body yet.

    For the moment, we have to put up with this grotesque “Weekend at Bernie’s” style politics where people pretend it makes any sense whatsoever.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,482
    ydoethur said:

    I prefer Humpty Dumpty:

    “When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.’
    I know it is attributed as a far more recent theme, but it seems to tie in with G3 to me.
  • Brexit is dead.
    We just haven’t figured out how to dispose of the body yet.

    For the moment, we have to put up with this grotesque “Weekend at Bernie’s” style politics where people pretend it makes any sense whatsoever.

    Brexit is done.

    Being a part of history now, it is neither living nor dead, its simply a part of the past.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited August 2023
    DavidL said:

    Like the Windsor Accords?
    No. That is generally understood as an expedient fix to a glaring oversight.

    Business has no confidence in the current government, as is clear from business surveys and foreign investment levels.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327
    edited August 2023
    ...

    Brexit is dead.
    We just haven’t figured out how to dispose of the body yet.

    For the moment, we have to put up with this grotesque “Weekend at Bernie’s” style politics where people pretend it makes any sense whatsoever.

    I wondered what that rank aroma of national decay was.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405

    How is any of it a "hill to die on"?

    I don't correct anyone (except my Dad who used to correct me, and my nephew who needs my help given how bad my sister's grammar can be) (oh, and my Russian friend, because she wants me to, but never in front of anyone else)

    But I'll argue all day for the upholding of linguistic and grammatical standards in our formal language

    Less to mean fewer should have (informal) after it in the dictionary
    Well, quite. I am a dreadful oik, wrong kind of school, never voted for the natural party of government, not part of the Anglican communion - hell, I'm not even English! I know, I shouldn't even be on here. I shouldn't even exist! So when I come here I do expect to see my betters setting an example, grammar-wise. I know we live in a world of declining standards, but is that too much to ask?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,427
    edited August 2023

    No. That is generally understood as an expedient fix to a glaring oversight.

    Business has no confidence in the current government, as is clear from business surveys and foreign investment levels.
    If there's no confidence in the current government then its a good job we've Brexited and have full democracy now where we can change course if we vote for new policies rather than having them stuck unchangeable by an unaccountable and unelected European Commission.

    And if foreign investment levels is the metric then not only is the UK growing faster than Germany, but the UK also received more FDI than Germany last year. Despite the fact they're a more populous nation.

    Maybe they need to Brexit (Dexit?) too to catch up with us?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,106

    No. That is generally understood as an expedient fix to a glaring oversight.

    Business has no confidence in the current government, as is clear from business surveys and foreign investment levels.
    Which is quite something when you think it’s supposedly a conservative government.

    A total lost cause supporting this bunch.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,231
    DavidL said:

    And it is happening out with the jurisdiction of the court. By countries who are subject to it. So that’s alright.
    DavidL said:

    And it is happening out with the jurisdiction of the court. By countries who are subject to it. So that’s alright.
    I’ve heard it stated that the entire system was designed to be outside legal review/process inside the EU and the participant countries themselves.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    Which is quite something when you think it’s supposedly a conservative government.

    A total lost cause supporting this bunch.
    It’s still essentially the “fuck business” government, even if Sunak himself is an unlikely figurehead of such.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    Brexit is done.

    Being a part of history now, it is neither living nor dead, its simply a part of the past.
    As a philosophy it’s dead. The majority now see what we’ve lost and want to get most of it back. A journey that will end up with us becoming politically what we always have been cultural and geographically - European - rather than this insane nostalgia for a brief period of attachment to countries literally on the other side of the globe we have nothing in common with.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    edited August 2023

    I wonder if the usual suspects will get excited by this six point increase.

    Starmer leads Sunak by 9%.

    At this moment, which of the following do Red Wall voters think would be the better PM for the UK? (20 August)

    Starmer 42% (+6)
    Sunak 33% (+1)

    Changes +/- 6 August


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1694019148823638139

    Assume we are going to have pages of overanalysis on this poll, led by Big Gee and Moonbat?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,427
    edited August 2023
    DougSeal said:

    As a philosophy it’s dead. The majority now see what we’ve lost and want to get most of it back. A journey that will end up with us becoming politically what we always have been cultural and geographically - European - rather than this insane nostalgia for a brief period of attachment to countries literally on the other side of the globe we have nothing in common with.
    We are as European as Canadians are American.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    We are as European as Canadians are American.
    Odd analogy.
    I’d argue that Canadians are far more “American” than Brits are “European”.
  • We are as European as Canadians are American.

    And you should know full well the UK has much in common with New Zealand and other nations, the idea we have nothing in common with New Zealand is just preposterous.
    But Canadians *are* American. Canada is in North America isn't it? The problem is what we call the United Statesians.
  • Odd analogy.
    I’d argue that Canadians are far more “American” than Brits are “European”.
    Canada is not yearning to join the USA, they are quite comfortable being Canadian.

    Ditto we too are are British/English depending upon your perspective not European as in the EU.

    Europe is our continent, not our nationality. Like Canada/USA.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Heathener said:

    August

    ;)
    Jacinda really screwed the pooch in NZ. She had the country in her hands and lost the plot over Covid, by implying a ludicrous myth than somehow NZ would be immune to its spread.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    ydoethur said:

    I prefer Humpty Dumpty:

    “When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.’
    Dear Humpty is wrong and (in this case if few others) Wittgenstein is right. There is no such thing as a private language that can function as a language. Humpty's audience would have to guess what he means in this and every other utterance. His utterance here may simply mean he wants fish for lunch - but then what would that mean if there is no fixity?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    Thinking Conservatives (a tautology, I know) must hope that Keir lacks the statecraft to fashion an enduring new post-Brexit settlement.

    Thus leaving the ideological space free for something that looks interesting and viable from the Conservatives in, say, 2029.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    We are as European as Canadians are American.

    And you should know full well the UK has much in common with New Zealand and other nations, the idea we have nothing in common with New Zealand is just preposterous.
    Canadians are, literally, American, yes. As for Aotearoa, we play a certain number of sports in common and speak English. That is it. We don't even have the same legal system anymore given they've largely abandoned common law. Aotearoa is a Polynesian culture. We are a European one. We are nothing but a rebellious province of a European whole. We have culturally far more in common with the rest of Europe than Aotearoa or Australia and we have been part of unions with European nations far longer than our brief dalliance with them.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited August 2023

    Jacinda really screwed the pooch in NZ. She had the country in her hands and lost the plot over Covid, by implying a ludicrous myth than somehow NZ would be immune to its spread.
    That is not really the story.
    Although there is definitely a strain of libertarian resistance to Covid-era policy in NZ opinion, the main objection to Jacinda was that she was just not competent at governance.

    All the major public services began declining almost immediately, and well before Covid. Post Covid, of course, they are now in steep decline.

    Despite significant increase in public sector employment and government spending.

    Jacinda/Labour were/are also beholden to a “Māori co-governance” agenda, which has led them to some quite anti-democratic policy. Stuff that PBers would go absolutely mental over.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    DougSeal said:

    As a philosophy it’s dead. The majority now see what we’ve lost and want to get most of it back. A journey that will end up with us becoming politically what we always have been cultural and geographically - European - rather than this insane nostalgia for a brief period of attachment to countries literally on the other side of the globe we have nothing in common with.
    Geography and geology require us to be Europeans, and yes, culturally we are thankfully part of that common culture from Homer to Charlemagne to Erasmus to Prokofiev. Nothing about that ties us to a European state or a common imperium. Attempts by Napoleon, the Soviets and the Nazis to create one have not be reassuring.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,355

    National/Act are not quite a a cert in NZ yet.

    It’s possible NZFirst (NZ’s answer to UKIP) might return to parliament, they are polling just shy of the 5% threshold.

    If they do, then National/Act are reduced to a majority of 1 under the latest poll, and they would typically need to nominate a Speaker beside.

    Having said that, Labour look screwed.
    There’s a lesson in here for Keir somewhere.
    Labour/Ardern came to power with great hopes, but their governance has been inept and beholden to incredibly sloppy, left-wing dogma.

    The country is in a kind of cultural impasse and although National/Act don’t look to be offering much there might be a return of some kind of grip.

    But everyone on social media fucking loved Ardern, so much so she disappeared up her own arsehole, so at least she felt canonised by it.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    Canada is not yearning to join the USA, they are quite comfortable being Canadian.

    Ditto we too are are British/English depending upon your perspective not European as in the EU.

    Europe is our continent, not our nationality. Like Canada/USA.
    Give it up, you’re not convincing anyone.
    I’m not even sure you believe this stuff yourself.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,948
    edited August 2023
    HYUFD said:

    No they wouldn't, most redwall seats were 60-70% Leave and Starmer couldn't become PM without them.

    Plus the rejoin vote would split between Labour and the LDs while the keep Brexit vote would largely stick with the Conservatives
    In the red wall the Lib Dems are as scarce as red squirrels.

    If a seat was sat 65% leave last time then based on the polling shift since it’s now about 53% leave (at best) now, and not that many seats were that Brexity.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    That is not really the story.
    Although there is definitely a strain of libertarian resistance to Covid-era policy in NZ opinion, the main objection to Jacinda was that she was just not competent at governance.

    All the major public services began declining almost immediately, and well before Covid. Post Covid, of course, they are now in steep decline.

    Despite significant increase in public sector employment and government spending.

    Jacinda/Labour were/are also beholden to a “Māori co-governance” agenda, which has led them to some quite anti-democratic policy. Stuff that PBers would go absolutely mental over.
    I’m sure that’s true, too. However, she went bat shit crazy over Covid, which exposed her as a bit crap.

    There were points - as I recall, and I might have misremembered the details - where the quarantine rules for being caught near someone with covid were longer, by a chalk, than actually HAVING Covid.


  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,711

    Thinking Conservatives (a tautology, I know) must hope that Keir lacks the statecraft to fashion an enduring new post-Brexit settlement.

    Thus leaving the ideological space free for something that looks interesting and viable from the Conservatives in, say, 2029.

    Unless you've gone soft on the tories, oxymoron not tautology?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    But everyone on social media fucking loved Ardern, so much so she disappeared up her own arsehole, so at least she felt canonised by it.
    She became a victim of her own hype. I had friends who bought into it. It was really quite alarming.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,711
    edited August 2023
    I wonder which Canadian provinces would be richer as US states. The ones without mineral resources? All of them? Is there a fringe group advocating it?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    carnforth said:

    Unless you've gone soft on the tories, oxymoron not tautology?
    Sorry, yes.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,355

    That is not really the story.
    Although there is definitely a strain of libertarian resistance to Covid-era policy in NZ opinion, the main objection to Jacinda was that she was just not competent at governance.

    All the major public services began declining almost immediately, and well before Covid. Post Covid, of course, they are now in steep decline.

    Despite significant increase in public sector employment and government spending.

    Jacinda/Labour were/are also beholden to a “Māori co-governance” agenda, which has led them to some quite anti-democratic policy. Stuff that PBers would go absolutely mental over.
    One wonders if that's influencing polling on the Australian Voice referendum at the moment.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,189

    No. That is generally understood as an expedient fix to a glaring oversight.

    Business has no confidence in the current government, as is clear from business surveys and foreign investment levels.
    The figures for FDI in the UK can be seen on this page: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/foreigndirectinvestmentinvolvingukcompanies/2021

    See Figure 1. As usual, when you look at the actual figures, there is no evidence that Brexit has made either a positive or negative effect on UK attractiveness. The trends, with some flattening during Covid, continue as before.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    That is not really the story.
    Although there is definitely a strain of libertarian resistance to Covid-era policy in NZ opinion, the main objection to Jacinda was that she was just not competent at governance.

    All the major public services began declining almost immediately, and well before Covid. Post Covid, of course, they are now in steep decline.

    Despite significant increase in public sector employment and government spending.

    Jacinda/Labour were/are also beholden to a “Māori co-governance” agenda, which has led them to some quite anti-democratic policy. Stuff that PBers would go absolutely mental over.
    One wonders if that's influencing polling on the Australian Voice referendum at the moment.

    I suspect it is, although I am not following the Australian debate.

    NZ will surely be a cautionary tale.
  • Odd analogy.
    I’d argue that Canadians are far more “American” than Brits are “European”.
    Same international dialling code!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,414
    On topic, I don't think the EHCR is going to move many votes. Those who are its biggest supporters are likely hardcore Remainers, who have sworn off the Conservatives for the time being.

    There may be the opportunity to win back a few votes from Reform over the issue; the problem is that too many of that group think that Rishi is an EU sellout for... for... for something or another. Maybe leaving the EHCR tickles their erogenous zones.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,711

    Same international dialling code!
    90% of Canadians live within 100 miles of the US border. More than half live south of Seattle.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited August 2023
    DavidL said:

    The figures for FDI in the UK can be seen on this page: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/foreigndirectinvestmentinvolvingukcompanies/2021

    See Figure 1. As usual, when you look at the actual figures, there is no evidence that Brexit has made either a positive or negative effect on UK attractiveness. The trends, with some flattening during Covid, continue as before.
    Why on earth do you think a bulletin about FDI in 2021 demonstrates anything?

    As always your myopia on this subject is positively Freudian.
  • Well, quite. I am a dreadful oik, wrong kind of school, never voted for the natural party of government, not part of the Anglican communion - hell, I'm not even English! I know, I shouldn't even be on here. I shouldn't even exist! So when I come here I do expect to see my betters setting an example, grammar-wise. I know we live in a world of declining standards, but is that too much to ask?
    We all have a right to exist; we just need to know our place

    I know mine: it's carrying your mail

    You're spot on about the standard we should expect here

    I do miss Leon's erudition
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,189

    Why on earth do you think a bulletin about FDI in 2021 demonstrates anything?

    As always your myopia on this subject is positively Freudian.
    Because it is the most up to date figures that we have. Except those in your imagination, of course.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Was that a European record from Matt Hudson-Smith in the 400m semis? 🏃‍♂️
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    DavidL said:

    Because it is the most up to date figures that we have. Except those in your imagination, of course.
    Google has numerous links to analysis of UK FDI post Brexit, I suggest you take a look.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,355
    DougSeal said:

    As a philosophy it’s dead. The majority now see what we’ve lost and want to get most of it back. A journey that will end up with us becoming politically what we always have been cultural and geographically - European - rather than this insane nostalgia for a brief period of attachment to countries literally on the other side of the globe we have nothing in common with.
    Odd. Brits think they have far more in common with Aussies, Kiwis and Canadians than they do with the French, Czechs and Slovenians and they vote with their feet accordingly.

    The British position has been the same for centuries: we are a maritime trading nation that trades both globally and continentally and has a strong interest in a maintaining a balance of power in Europe and secure global sea routes in order to prosper.

    Geography is key but not all in one direction like you think it is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    TimS said:

    In the red wall the Lib Dems are as scarce as red squirrels.

    If a seat was sat 65% leave last time then based on the polling shift since it’s now about 53% leave (at best) now, and not that many seats were that Brexity.

    So even 5% for the LDs in a now 50% Leave seat hands the seat to the Tories then
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,189
    edited August 2023

    Google has numerous links to analysis of UK FDI post Brexit, I suggest you take a look.
    I did and gave you the figures. But you want to believe otherwise and prefer anecdotes that meet your prejudices.
  • HYUFD said:

    So again 37% still back Brexit, plus add what rejoin would require ie restoration of free movement and may require ie the Euro and economic policy and interest rates set in Frankfurt and those numbers would soon decline.

    Yougov has C2DEs split 40% to 44% on Brexit so it is the middle class ABC1s pushing it, 66% of whom say Brexit was wrong.

    51% of over 65s also still think we were right to leave as do 65% of 2019 Conservative voters
    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/kby5f0bevb/TheTimes_VI_Results_230818_W.pdf
    But you voted Remain! Stop pretending to be a Leaver!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited August 2023
    DougSeal said:

    Canadians are, literally, American, yes. As for Aotearoa, we play a certain number of sports in common and speak English. That is it. We don't even have the same legal system anymore given they've largely abandoned common law. Aotearoa is a Polynesian culture. We are a European one. We are nothing but a rebellious province of a European whole. We have culturally far more in common with the rest of Europe than Aotearoa or Australia and we have been part of unions with European nations far longer than our brief dalliance with them.
    No we have culturally much more in common with Australia and New Zealand than continental Europe.

    We even share the same King and language and common law and Westminster style democracy heritage and watch many of the same TV programmes
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Odd. Brits think they have far more in common with Aussies, Kiwis and Canadians than they do with the French, Czechs and Slovenians and they vote with their feet accordingly.

    The British position has been the same for centuries: we are a maritime trading nation that trades both globally and continentally and has a strong interest in a maintaining a balance of power in Europe and secure global sea routes in order to prosper.

    Geography is key but not all in one direction like you think it is.
    "British". A word that begs a huge amount.

    Your position would make much more sense if the "British"

    (a) still had a mercantile marine
    (b) had a government which worried about the balance of payments
    (c) ditto industry
    (d) ditto energy security
    (e) didn't sell off the UK's capital to outsiders
    (f) didn't run down the armed forces
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,834
    DougSeal said:

    Canadians are, literally, American, yes. As for Aotearoa, we play a certain number of sports in common and speak English. That is it. We don't even have the same legal system anymore given they've largely abandoned common law. Aotearoa is a Polynesian culture. We are a European one. We are nothing but a rebellious province of a European whole. We have culturally far more in common with the rest of Europe than Aotearoa or Australia and we have been part of unions with European nations far longer than our brief dalliance with them.
    More in common with France than New Zealand? Are you having a laugh?
  • We all have a right to exist; we just need to know our place

    I know mine: it's carrying your mail

    You're spot on about the standard we should expect here

    I do miss Leon's erudition
    To be clear, I mean his linguistic erudition and how he uses our language so skilfully

    Even if one disagrees with everything he writes, it's hard not to be at least a little impressed by the way he writes it
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    One wonders if that's influencing polling on the Australian Voice referendum at the moment.
    That’s some TV talent show, isn’t it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095

    Odd analogy.
    I’d argue that Canadians are far more “American” than Brits are “European”.
    Outside Quebec, yes
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited August 2023
    HYUFD said:

    No we have culturally much more in common with Australia and New Zealand than continental Europe
    That's what used to be said, before Gallipoli, Tobruk and Singapore.

    Just ask the Australians.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,355

    Brexit is dead.
    We just haven’t figured out how to dispose of the body yet.

    For the moment, we have to put up with this grotesque “Weekend at Bernie’s” style politics where people pretend it makes any sense whatsoever.

    Brexit is not dead and those who try and ignore it are doomed to relive its lessons all over again.

    It happened because a huge constituency of eurosceptic opinion in this country was ignored for far too long, by both the UK and the EU, with stultifying level of pomposity, arrogance and self-servedness that patronised them to boot.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,834

    We all have a right to exist; we just need to know our place

    I know mine: it's carrying your mail

    You're spot on about the standard we should expect here

    I do miss Leon's erudition
    I with Blanche. I understand what is meant by "less dogs" for example, but it just sounds clunky and awkward. Why use a clunky and awkward word when there is one made for the purpose?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,355
    Carnyx said:

    "British". A word that begs a huge amount.

    Your position would make much more sense if the "British"

    (a) still had a mercantile marine
    (b) had a government which worried about the balance of payments
    (c) ditto industry
    (d) ditto energy security
    (e) didn't sell off the UK's capital to outsiders
    (f) didn't run down the armed forces
    Err, ok.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited August 2023

    We all have a right to exist; we just need to know our place

    I know mine: it's carrying your mail

    You're spot on about the standard we should expect here

    I do miss Leon's erudition
    There is however a case for using less where the quantity does not have a concrete existence. A continuous variable.

    Less than a kilo of flour.

    Fewer than 30 melons.

    Edit: or indeed fewer dogs.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    HYUFD said:

    No we have culturally much more in common with Australia and New Zealand than continental Europe.

    We even share the same King and language and common law and Westminster style democracy heritage and watch many of the same TV programmes
    So what?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    ….
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    So what?
    Who's this "we"? As a Scot I certainly don't share the same legal system.
  • Odd. Brits think they have far more in common with Aussies, Kiwis and Canadians than they do with the French, Czechs and Slovenians and they vote with their feet accordingly.

    The British position has been the same for centuries: we are a maritime trading nation that trades both globally and continentally and has a strong interest in a maintaining a balance of power in Europe and secure global sea routes in order to prosper.

    Geography is key but not all in one direction like you think it is.
    And yet, despite all of that (which isn't false but I do think it is more complicated than that), Brexit is unpopular and increasingly so.

    It's really not my job to work out why, or what to do about that. Which is probably for the best, because I haven't got a clue where to begin.

    (I suspect the answer is that there's nothing to be done about it. The mental map for those who grew up after about 1973 is just different to that of those who grew up post war but pre-EEC membership. And changing people's mental maps is damn difficult.)
  • Carnyx said:

    There is however a case for using less where the quantity does not have a concrete existence. A continuous variable.

    Less than a kilo of flour.

    Fewer than 30 melons.

    Edit: or indeed fewer dogs.
    Well indeed!

    I want fewer examples of less correct grammar
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    Carnyx said:

    That's what used to be said, before Gallipoli, Tobruk and Singapore.

    Just ask the Australians.
    Yes they voted 55% to keep the monarchy in 1999 and Australia remains the main emigration destination for Brits.

    So the ties that bound us together to defeat the Nazis and Japanese in WW2 remain
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    And yet, despite all of that (which isn't false but I do think it is more complicated than that), Brexit is unpopular and increasingly so.

    It's really not my job to work out why, or what to do about that. Which is probably for the best, because I haven't got a clue where to begin.

    (I suspect the answer is that there's nothing to be done about it. The mental map for those who grew up after about 1973 is just different to that of those who grew up post war but pre-EEC membership. And changing people's mental maps is damn difficult.)
    So unreasonable for the Brexiters to proclaim how stupid the people are. They didn;t say that in 2017-2020, either.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    Carnyx said:

    Who's this "we"? As a Scot I certainly don't share the same legal system.
    There is still plenty of common law in Scotland and the UK Supreme Court is the highest court in Scotland as much as England
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    DavidL said:

    I did and gave you the figures. But you want to believe otherwise and prefer anecdotes that meet your prejudices.
    In the first quarter of 2023, real business investment in the UK remained over 1% below its peak in third quarter 2016.




  • DougSeal said:

    As a philosophy it’s dead. The majority now see what we’ve lost and want to get most of it back. A journey that will end up with us becoming politically what we always have been cultural and geographically - European - rather than this insane nostalgia for a brief period of attachment to countries literally on the other side of the globe we have nothing in common with.
    Hahahaha. You just keep believing that if it makes you feel better. You and I and everyone else on this board will be long dead before we renew ties with the EU.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    HYUFD said:

    There is still plenty of common law in Scotland and the UK Supreme Court is the highest court in Scotland as much as England
    Radically differenmt law. To the degree that the DM got sued by someone who got done for incest in Scotland by following its legal advice column - which was based solely on English (and, at the time, Welsh) law.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited August 2023

    And yet, despite all of that (which isn't false but I do think it is more complicated than that), Brexit is unpopular and increasingly so.

    It's really not my job to work out why, or what to do about that. Which is probably for the best, because I haven't got a clue where to begin.

    (I suspect the answer is that there's nothing to be done about it. The mental map for those who grew up after about 1973 is just different to that of those who grew up post war but pre-EEC membership. And changing people's mental maps is damn difficult.)
    It isn't that much, most of even under 40s would be fine with EFTA membership at most, they don't have a desperate desire to be part of the Eurozone and an EU superstate which is where the EU is heading.

    Over 65 upper middle class LD voters are much keener on rejoining the full EU than most under 40s would be if EFTA was an option too (and plenty of the former on PB)
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    edited August 2023
    DavidL said:

    The figures for FDI in the UK can be seen on this page: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/foreigndirectinvestmentinvolvingukcompanies/2021

    See Figure 1. As usual, when you look at the actual figures, there is no evidence that Brexit has made either a positive or negative effect on UK attractiveness. The trends, with some flattening during Covid, continue as before.
    Business investment of G7 countries relative to 2016. Which what you would expect given the UK has suddenly limited its market and increased the risk of doing business here. Investment is competitive. You place it where you get the best expected returns.

    Business investment was already poor but Brexit has definitely made it worse.




    https://www.economicsobservatory.com/how-has-brexit-affected-business-investment-in-the-uk
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    HYUFD said:

    Yes they voted 55% to keep the monarchy in 1999 and Australia remains the main emigration destination for Brits.

    So the ties that bound us together to defeat the Nazis and Japanese in WW2 remain
    "ties that bound us together".Much weakened in WW2 by British incompetence. Australia is a far more American place in many ways now.
  • Amount and number is a bit like less and fewer

    You can ask for a smaller amount of sugar, but you really shouldn't say "a smaller amount of people"

    That definitely should be "a smaller number of people"
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    Carnyx said:

    Who's this "we"? As a Scot I certainly don't share the same legal system.
    I agree that the UK and NZ (and Scotland and Australia) are all culturally quite similar but the Brexit loons are up to their usual tricks of thereby trying to imply that it must therefore be a stretch to conclude a trading arrangement with countries like Slovenia.

    In reality, Brits have been trading with the Continent for millennia. Look at the Bordeaux wine trade.
  • We chose to bind all sorts of other countries in the past to our visions, its imperialistic and we've largely turned our back on that.

    We also have a domestic principle that no Parliament can bind its successors, so if any Parliament votes to change the decisions of the past, that is entirely democratic.

    I don't find it at all perverse to disown standards if those standards no long suit our interests or the modern world. Our closest friends and allies that share our principles of Parliamentary democracy aren't even a part of the ECHR anyway, so there's no real reason other than basic inertia why we have to be.
    They are our standards. They are the standards we still claim to hold to in our laws and society. Go and look at the Convention and find anything there which is not fundamentally part of what our country is supposed to stand for.

    The only reason we are even having this debate is because the current political leadership of one party has decided that those basic standards are no longer politically expedient. Which is one reason why they will shortly no longer be in a position to do anything about it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    HYUFD said:

    Yes they voted 55% to keep the monarchy in 1999 and Australia remains the main emigration destination for Brits.

    So the ties that bound us together to defeat the Nazis and Japanese in WW2 remain
    And lots of UK people emigrate to Spain and Thailand, but I don't see you proclaiming the ties that bind the UK to them.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    I agree that the UK and NZ (and Scotland and Australia) are all culturally quite similar but the Brexit loons are up to their usual tricks of thereby trying to imply that it must therefore be a stretch to conclude a trading arrangement with countries like Slovenia.

    In reality, Brits have been trading with the Continent for millennia. Look at the Bordeaux wine trade.
    The Scottish merchants in the Baltic ports. And so on.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    Hahahaha. You just keep believing that if it makes you feel better. You and I and everyone else on this board will be long dead before we renew ties with the EU.
    Quite likely in your case as you are corpulent and prone to apoplexy. The rest of can be more hopeful perhaps.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    HYUFD said:

    It isn't that much, most of even under 40s would be fine with EFTA membership at most, they don't have a desperate desire to be part of the Eurozone and an EU superstate which is where the EU is heading.

    Over 65 upper middle class LD voters are much keener on rejoining the full EU than most under 40s would be if EFTA was an option too (and plenty of the former on PB)
    You’ve never even spoken to someone under 40, so how would you know?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    Carnyx said:

    And lots of UK people emigrate to Spain and Thailand, but I don't see you proclaiming the ties that bind the UK to them.
    Fewer UK people emigrate to Spain than Australia, despite Spain being far closer.

    Thailand is not even in the top 10 UK emigration destinations unlike Australia at no 1, Canada at no 3 and New Zealand at no 6.
    https://www.movehub.com/blog/top-10-countries-brits-choose/
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    FF43 said:

    Business investment of G7 countries relative to 2016. Which what you would expect given the UK has suddenly limited its market and increased the risk of doing business here. Investment is competitive. You place it where you get the best expected returns.

    Business investment was already poor but Brexit has definitely made it worse.




    https://www.economicsobservatory.com/how-has-brexit-affected-business-investment-in-the-uk
    I should add I don't think ALL of these utterly dire investment figures for the UK are down to Brexit. The negligent Brexiteer Conservative government should share some of the blame.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095

    You’ve never even spoken to someone under 40, so how would you know?
    I am only 41 myself!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,189
    Good. detailed report about the current state of play in Ukraine: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/22/2188797/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-is-throwing-nearly-everything-it-has-at-Tokmak

    Basically, Ukraine is now throwing most of its available resources into the attack. Russia is also fully committed with almost no mobile reserves according to the UK MoD. We are getting close to crunch time for one side or the other.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    HYUFD said:

    Fewer UK people emigrate to Spain than Australia, despite Spain being far closer.

    Thailand is not even in the top 10 UK emigration destinations unlike Australia at no 1, Canada at no 3 and New Zealand at no 6.
    https://www.movehub.com/blog/top-10-countries-brits-choose/
    That's because UK schools are crap at modern languages.

    We all know that the boat people come to the UK for the English culture and languahe. So why don't you apply the same argument to the boat people's source countries? I can't *possibly* think why not.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    HYUFD said:

    I am only 41 myself!
    Jesus Christ, you kept that well hid.
    I assumed you were in your dessicated mid-50s.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    Carnyx said:

    "ties that bound us together".Much weakened in WW2 by British incompetence. Australia is a far more American place in many ways now.
    Australia and certainly New Zealand are closer to the UK and Canada than USA or Asia culturally.

    The UK is also culturally closer to Australia, New Zealand and Canada than the USA or continental Europe
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    FF43 said:

    I should add I don't think ALL of these utterly dire investment figures for the UK are down to Brexit. The negligent Brexiteer Conservative government should share some of the blame.
    And how did they get into power? Bewcause of you know what.
  • HYUFD said:

    It isn't that much, most of even under 40s would be fine with EFTA membership at most, they don't have a desperate desire to be part of the Eurozone and an EU superstate which is where the EU is heading.

    Over 65 upper middle class LD voters are much keener on rejoining the full EU than most under 40s would be if EFTA was an option too (and plenty of the former on PB)
    But even that- some variant of what Norway or Switzerland do- is a much closer arrangement than we have right now. In an annexe with a separate front door, but still in the same building. Which is not what eurosceptics are talking about this evening.

    One final thought before I wander off to water the corguettes. (Half of me wants them to die so I don't have to keep harvesting them, but that wouldn't be on.) Some of the chat this evening has been about how the UK can't be fully European, because of the Anglosphere. Spaniards don't bang on about the Hispanidad in the same way, or France about the Francophonie. They just get on with having multiple overlapping identities. Why do Brits find that so difficult?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    HYUFD said:

    Australia and certainly New Zealand are closer to the UK and Canada than USA or Asia culturally.

    The UK is also culturally closer to Australia, New Zealand and Canada than the USA or continental Europe
    Not true. The UK is closest by far to the EU, in the form of Ireland. Some of the UK *is* Ireland.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    DavidL said:

    Good. detailed report about the current state of play in Ukraine: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/22/2188797/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-is-throwing-nearly-everything-it-has-at-Tokmak

    Basically, Ukraine is now throwing most of its available resources into the attack. Russia is also fully committed with almost no mobile reserves according to the UK MoD. We are getting close to crunch time for one side or the other.

    Very good. Praying for a Ukrainian breakthrough that will cut off Russian supply to Crimea and shut the prevaricating noises off from some Western sources.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited August 2023
    Carnyx said:

    That's because UK schools are crap at modern languages.

    We all know that the boat people come to the UK for the English culture and languahe. So why don't you apply the same argument to the boat people's source countries? I can't *possibly* think why not.

    Even I support making foreign languages compulsory to 16, however speaking foreign languages better still means they are foreign languages rather than your native English.

    Boat people leave for developed high income nations, that doesn't mean their countries of origin are culturally similar. Economically we are far closer to Australia, NZ and Canada than Africa is to us
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