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US attitudes to Trump – the great American divide – politicalbetting.com

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  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,323
    TOPPING said:

    You would look a bit of a twat if you wrestled a bird from a picker up or took it from your dog and stuffed it in the Tin Cloth Game Bag before you headed over to the next drive.
    Wouldn't want to look a twat when doing that kind of thing.


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,687

    Wasn't Amber Rudd employed as a kind of poshness consultant on Four Weddings?
    I have no idea.

    Posh is, I think, essentially cosplay.
    There are those who take cosplay very seriously, too.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,263
    Geoff Marshall's in Edinburgh for the trams. It looks quite nice. I didn't know it had renovated: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vx87R3hVweI
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,263

    So he's Paul Cummings, Dominic's brother, then?
    Or Paul Dominic Cummings. Hmmm. :lol:
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Cookie said:

    I confess* I haven't been to Ferryhill for over 20 years; nor to the surrounding villages. And Shildon: the last time I was there was February 1997, and even back then it felt more like going back in time than anywhere else I'd been in the UK that wasn't a heritage museum. It even smelled of the 1960s. It's almost incredible to believe it's gone backwards since then.

    *confess for the purposes of how informed I am for this argument. Outside of that, I feel no personal shame at this fact.
    The European Regional Development Fund used to do a good job for such places.

    What’s that? Did I hear you say it’s no longer available?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,732
    Can I give Newquest the award for covering all sectors in this A level results story

    https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/23728110.ukrainian-twins-studying-harrogate-achieve-top-grades/

    Refugees, Young (photogenic) girls and decent results.

    The only flaw is they sensible refused to be pictured jumping...
  • Nigelb said:

    I have no idea.

    Posh is, I think, essentially cosplay.
    There are those who take cosplay very seriously, too.
    Aristocracy coordinator.
  • Agreed.

    But there also seems to be a mismatch with voting intention. What are these Republican supporters going to do if Trump is the candidate? If those who thought his actions illegal or unethical don’t support him, Trump will lose by a large margin.
    Yes, agreed.

    For years there seem to be some eerie similarities between Corbyn and Trump, though Trump is definitely the worst of the two (Corbyn's supporters just liked to act like they won the first election they lost, not overthrow the election).

    It seems like a second election might be needed to put down Trump, like it was with Corbyn.

    If so, hopefully Jan 6 was the equivalent of Salisbury, where the truth of their man became clear to even lots of their own parties supporters.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703

    Wouldn't want to look a twat when doing that kind of thing.


    You know how we Brits like to dress up.


  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703

    Wasn't Amber Rudd employed as a kind of poshness consultant on Four Weddings?
    Yes. She says it was because she was the only person whose friends had their own morning suits and the production couldn't afford to hire any.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,915
    edited August 2023
    Cookie said:

    Yes, but - it's possible to over-romanticise the coal mining era. Pride and self-belief, yes, but there were a lot of hard jobs, not especially well-paid, which led to an early death. And comradeship, yes, but it tended to be a very insular community from which escape was hard. There are good and bad aspects to this, of course.
    And of course secure jobs have gone everywhere. We no longer expect a job for life in Manchester, just as we no longer expect a job for life in Wigan. It's just easier to find another one in Manchester.

    That said, mining nowadays would no doubt be a different proposition: higher skill and less labour intensive. A good job if you could get it, but employing far fewer people.

    Mining was indeed a hard job - I get reminded of this frequently at a local memorial to those killed in a mining accident - but it _was_ well paid.

    Be interesting to see how the massive polyhalite mine near Whitby operates when it opens.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woodsmith_Mine
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,323
    TOPPING said:

    You know how we Brits like to dress up.


    Whatabout that!!
    I have a fine collection of tweed jackets and a tweed suit, but the only kilts I have are my dad's old moth-eaten ones, never worn. I still know which looks more twattish though.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,263
    TOPPING said:

    Surely if your grandmother had wheels she would be a dalek.
    Daleks do not have wheels.

    Not real ones, anyway.

    :lol:
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,687
    Texas woman arrested for threatening to murder the Trump judge.

    “In a post [sent out by Trump & written by his ally], the lawyer Mike Davis, a large photo of Judge Chutkan accompanied text that falsely claimed she had ‘openly admitted she’s running election interference against Trump.’” That triggered the murder threat
    https://twitter.com/tribelaw/status/1692114464638685245
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,798

    I am definitely posh but have enough intelligence to realise that Keir Starmer is in no way posh, despite that being something the Tories like to throw at him.

    They seem to fail to realise that not only is Rishi Sunak posh, he's also an arsehole.

    Poshness is fascinating.
    I know a couple - in manner, she is posh for Manchester (listens to radio 4, trills rather than laughs, quite RP, talks about the arts), he is not (Lancashire accent, talks about football) - and then you find out a bit about their respective backgrounds; her father ran a garage, and while he passed his 11+ he couldn't go because his parents couldn't afford the shoes; while his father went to one of the more famous public schools in London, rebelled against his parents wealth, and made his life in a not-particularly-affluent suburb of Rochdale.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,189
    edited August 2023
    Cookie said:

    Yes, but - it's possible to over-romanticise the coal mining era. Pride and self-belief, yes, but there were a lot of hard jobs, not especially well-paid, which led to an early death. And comradeship, yes, but it tended to be a very insular community from which escape was hard. There are good and bad aspects to this, of course.
    And of course secure jobs have gone everywhere. We no longer expect a job for life in Manchester, just as we no longer expect a job for life in Wigan. It's just easier to find another one in Manchester.

    That said, mining nowadays would no doubt be a different proposition: higher skill and less labour intensive. A good job if you could get it, but employing far fewer people.

    Opencast mining - highly automated, with most workers in air-conditioned cabs, with air filtration - is often a high paid job. As you say, many fewer workers. See Australian mines.

    EDIT: that they had to resort to conscription to the mines, in WWII, is indicative.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,161
    Another holiday-affected local by-election programme today. We have just a Lab defence in Middlesbrough and a Lib Dem defence in St Albans.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,687
    TOPPING said:

    Yes. She says it was because she was the only person whose friends had their own morning suits and the production couldn't afford to hire any.
    I once had my own morning suit - it was my grandfathers, so looked a great deal posher than me.
    The 28in waist long since rendered it unwearable, sadly.
  • TOPPING said:

    Interesting posts by dj41bis.

    Definitely not a russian bot - not a "mate" in there - and a cracking rant about all kinds, including PB Tories, who as someone upthread noted, is anyone to the right of Corbyn, and their polo-playing, fine wine drinking, breakfast in Kyrrbasystan-posting dilettantism.

    Where he/she/it is bang on the money is that there are certain topics where it is not allowed to have a dissenting view (as in it draws a particular kind of vituperative response). The Russian invasion of Ukraine being one of them.

    I find it amusing that any identification of the practicalities of the war, its historical context, or any hint that Ukrainian forces won't be sipping tea in the Kremlin by next Tuesday is met with a barrage of what I can only believe is insecurity and fear, manifest in the most gung ho (Russia will be defeated because Russia must be defeated) rhetoric.

    And I see dj41 has now been banned, as they suspected they would be. Which is a huge shame. They said they didn't want to continue posting anyway so it's moot but it is such voices that we need here on PB. The lack of such voices, and the certain-topic Groupthink is I imagine one of the reasons that Leon gets so frustrated. Plus he was beginning to contemplate - burn him - that a negotiated settlement might be an idea to consider.

    "Dissenting views are not allowed" says one of the half a dozen plus users who routinely post dissenting views, and routinely say they are not allowed to.

    Drawing a response doesn't mean your views are not allowed, I've quite often received a very vituperative response for my views on Brexit, or that (after you helped convince me) it'd be better to have had no lockdown even if it means more people would have died - but that doesn't mean such views aren't allowed, it just means others vehemently disagree.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,687
    Nigelb said:

    Texas woman arrested for threatening to murder the Trump judge.

    “In a post [sent out by Trump & written by his ally], the lawyer Mike Davis, a large photo of Judge Chutkan accompanied text that falsely claimed she had ‘openly admitted she’s running election interference against Trump.’” That triggered the murder threat
    https://twitter.com/tribelaw/status/1692114464638685245

    Anyone but Trump would likely be jailed for such attacks on judges.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    I've got a mate who lives in Whitley Bay, it looks mint now, like South East London but by the sea and with more affordable houses. I remember it in the eighties, Spanish City etc, even as a primary age kid I could tell it was a bit rough. Cullercoats has a nicer beach.
    I visited Whitley Bay, in December of all times, and it seemed a pretty nice place. Went for half a day’s walk up and down the path on top of the beach. There’s way worse coastal towns in the UK.
  • There is definitely a pattern of shutting people down who are not 100% on "just fuck Russia into the ground".
  • eekeek Posts: 29,732
    edited August 2023
    Sandpit said:

    I visited Whitley Bay, in December of all times, and it seemed a pretty nice place. Went for half a day’s walk up and down the path on top of the beach. There’s way worse coastal towns in the UK.
    If we are talking Tyneside Beaches it's remarkable how improved Tynemouth / Cullercoats and Whitley Bay is compared to say South Shields...

    30 years ago it was very much reversed with South Shields way nicer than Whitley Bay.

    There does seem to be a certain size of town say where the population is roughly 100-200,000 that has suffered greatly over the past 15 years with the shops that used to target that size of market completely disappearing...

    South Shields, Gateshead, even Sunderland all have big problems with their high streets. Whitley Bay being slightly smaller has been able to reinvent its self..

    Further south Stockton, Middlesbrough have similar issues. Yet Darlington seems to have hung on better than all the above. That will probably change next year though when Scotch Corner Designer Outlet opens..
  • TOPPING said:

    Interesting posts by dj41bis.

    Definitely not a russian bot - not a "mate" in there - and a cracking rant about all kinds, including PB Tories, who as someone upthread noted, is anyone to the right of Corbyn, and their polo-playing, fine wine drinking, breakfast in Kyrrbasystan-posting dilettantism.

    Where he/she/it is bang on the money is that there are certain topics where it is not allowed to have a dissenting view (as in it draws a particular kind of vituperative response). The Russian invasion of Ukraine being one of them.

    I find it amusing that any identification of the practicalities of the war, its historical context, or any hint that Ukrainian forces won't be sipping tea in the Kremlin by next Tuesday is met with a barrage of what I can only believe is insecurity and fear, manifest in the most gung ho (Russia will be defeated because Russia must be defeated) rhetoric.

    And I see dj41 has now been banned, as they suspected they would be. Which is a huge shame. They said they didn't want to continue posting anyway so it's moot but it is such voices that we need here on PB. The lack of such voices, and the certain-topic Groupthink is I imagine one of the reasons that Leon gets so frustrated. Plus he was beginning to contemplate - burn him - that a negotiated settlement might be an idea to consider.

    Well said as usual, TOPPING.

    There is most definitely a feeling that anything that isn't "just murder Russia", as somehow being on the side of Russia.

    I pointed out yesterday that these same people were saying the war would be over quickly a year ago and yet we're still here.

    The reality is that Russia have nukes. And this war will go on for years with lots of people dead.
  • There is definitely a pattern of shutting people down who are not 100% on "just fuck Russia into the ground".

    No, there isn't. You're still here.

    There's a pattern of responding to people, that's how conversations work online.
  • No, there isn't. You're still here.

    There's a pattern of responding to people, that's how conversations work online.
    The conversation is shutting people down for having a different opinion. And as you piped up to respond I suspect you know that.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    edited August 2023
    DJ41bis said:

    3/3

    This place doesn't have any real influence anyway. Its main reason for existence is so that betting markets can be talked up, years or months or weeks before they close, allowing those who enjoy access to high-quality information channels to make money in the last few hours that markets are open. ("Liquidity", in the parlance.)

    Those who aren't in the in-crowd who want some high-grade last-minute info go to another site that isn't this one, and no it's not Conservative Home. Ask Andy_JS.

    When I did hang out here, I generally ignored posts by Barty, Foxy (another complete moron - thinks he's a logician but is professionally incapable of seeing the big picture outside his tiny little bubble, like all moneygrabbing medics), and Cycle Free. Let's just say intelligence doesn't go together with being a boring c*nt. Being a boring c*nt is a way of saying "Don't listen to me". This one isn't rocket science.

    Good idea to leave, @Leon. I don't agree with important elements of your angle, but who cares? It's groupthinky herd minds ville here.

    Your main problem is that you constantly have to tell everyone what a great life you lead, how your life is just how you want it, etc. Oh today's meal, you enjoyed it so much. On and on like that. There's only one thing that means. It's a bit like when someone keeps telling you "I'm not lying to you". They always are lying. No exceptions. But good luck. Enjoy not being here. I will too.

    Over and out.

    Superb post even if I disagreed with mostly every word. Much more thoughtful than Leon's attention seeking about aliens.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703

    "Dissenting views are not allowed" says one of the half a dozen plus users who routinely post dissenting views, and routinely say they are not allowed to.

    Drawing a response doesn't mean your views are not allowed, I've quite often received a very vituperative response for my views on Brexit, or that (after you helped convince me) it'd be better to have had no lockdown even if it means more people would have died - but that doesn't mean such views aren't allowed, it just means others vehemently disagree.
    Is why I clarified that it draws a particular type of response. Not just a "no and here's why..", but as though a line has been crossed and right thinking subverted.

    We disagree about everything Brexit, say. But when we discuss it we don't think in believing whatever we believe about widget standards that there is an orthodoxy which one of us is violating. Sure it all gets heated and why not - it's what makes PB PB.

    But with the Ukrainian war it is different. Many on PB have created an orthodoxy and the response to any post which in any way is perceived to contravene this has a unique character.
  • TOPPING said:

    Is why I clarified that it draws a particular type of response. Not just a "no and here's why..", but as though a line has been crossed and right thinking subverted.

    We disagree about everything Brexit, say. But when we discuss it we don't think in believing whatever we believe about widget standards that there is an orthodoxy which one of us is violating. Sure it all gets heated and why not - it's what makes PB PB.

    But with the Ukrainian war it is different. Many on PB have created an orthodoxy and the response to any post which in any way is perceived to contravene this has a unique character.
    Some people absolutely do believe there is an orthodoxy violated wrt Brexit.

    Many absolutely do regarding lockdown.

    Suggest that death is a natural part of life and that lockdown was a mistake, even though it means more people would have died had we not locked down, and people respond like I'm literally suggesting we go around murdering people.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,936
    edited August 2023

    I've got a mate who lives in Whitley Bay, it looks mint now, like South East London but by the sea and with more affordable houses. I remember it in the eighties, Spanish City etc, even as a primary age kid I could tell it was a bit rough. Cullercoats has a nicer beach.
    They've done a superb job on restoring Spanish City. Now a high end fish and chip restaurant.
    With a champagne bar on the upper floors.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,687
    TOPPING said:

    Is why I clarified that it draws a particular type of response. Not just a "no and here's why..", but as though a line has been crossed and right thinking subverted.

    We disagree about everything Brexit, say. But when we discuss it we don't think in believing whatever we believe about widget standards that there is an orthodoxy which one of us is violating. Sure it all gets heated and why not - it's what makes PB PB.

    But with the Ukrainian war it is different. Many on PB have created an orthodoxy and the response to any post which in any way is perceived to contravene this has a unique character.
    Is it 'an orthodoxy', or is it just that support for Ukraine (as in the country as a whole) is the position of quite a large majority ?
    And it's not unique at all - Scot Nats get a similar pile on (often much less rational).

  • Nigelb said:

    Is it 'an orthodoxy', or is it just that support for Ukraine (as in the country as a whole) is the position of quite a large majority ?
    And it's not unique at all - Scot Nats get a similar pile on (often much less rational).

    Refugees from Ukraine - good.

    Refugees from Afghanistan - bad.

    Is not the opinion of most people but is a few.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,687

    Refugees from Ukraine - good.

    Refugees from Afghanistan - bad.

    Is not the opinion of most people but is a few.
    Not mine.
  • The orthodoxy has lately for some started to spread beyond things like lockdown too @TOPPING - the same arguments used for lockdown are now being used on other subjects.

    Recently when discussing traffic some in the anti-car brigade have taken to trying to use the fact road traffic accidents happen as a killer argument and basically taken a zero covid/zero accident attitude, suggesting that being OK with the fact life has risk is wanting to "kill toddlers".

    Drawing a strong response isn't unique to Ukraine. Its simply what happens when you argue on the internet.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,732
    dixiedean said:

    They've done a superb job on restoring Spanish City. Now a high end fish and chip restaurant.
    With a champagne bar on the upper floors.
    Likewise South Shields sea front is rather nice and I would highly recommend Colman's Seafood Temple, it's just the town centre that has problems.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    edited August 2023

    The orthodoxy has lately for some started to spread beyond things like lockdown too @TOPPING - the same arguments used for lockdown are now being used on other subjects.

    Recently when discussing traffic some in the anti-car brigade have taken to trying to use the fact road traffic accidents happen as a killer argument and basically taken a zero covid/zero accident attitude, suggesting that being OK with the fact life has risk is wanting to "kill toddlers".

    Drawing a strong response isn't unique to Ukraine. Its simply what happens when you argue on the internet.

    I question the idea that we just make Russia lose is the solution to the problem. I think you're desperately naive if you think everything will be solved if/when they lose.

    I personally would like them to lose with as few casualties as possible on both sides but I do not believe a defeat will change the world at all.

    And the idea they'll actually just go back to the situation prior to 2014 - which I think is what you advocate? - seems fantasy.
  • Well said as usual, TOPPING.

    There is most definitely a feeling that anything that isn't "just murder Russia", as somehow being on the side of Russia.

    I pointed out yesterday that these same people were saying the war would be over quickly a year ago and yet we're still here.

    The reality is that Russia have nukes. And this war will go on for years with lots of people dead.
    Except your facts are wrong again.

    The ones saying the war would be over quickly were those saying that Russia would be in Kyiv in days so no reason to support Ukraine.

    Those of us in favour of Ukraine's self-defence are saying to support Ukraine however long the war takes, not for days or weeks or months. If it takes years, we should support them for years.

    And I don't know a single person saying "just murder Russia". Who's seriously suggesting Moscow should be invaded? As opposed to jokes about the Ukraine/Republic of China border.

    Wanting Ukraine free and secure, wanting Crimea and other occupied territory liberated != murdering Russia.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703

    The orthodoxy has lately for some started to spread beyond things like lockdown too @TOPPING - the same arguments used for lockdown are now being used on other subjects.

    Recently when discussing traffic some in the anti-car brigade have taken to trying to use the fact road traffic accidents happen as a killer argument and basically taken a zero covid/zero accident attitude, suggesting that being OK with the fact life has risk is wanting to "kill toddlers".

    Drawing a strong response isn't unique to Ukraine. Its simply what happens when you argue on the internet.

    Actually, lockdown is a good example. Look at the vitriol poured upon people who said - at the time - that they were mistaken. It was PB groupthink and posts condemned that point of view in terms which went beyond argument or reason but simply appealed to "what was right" - the orthodoxy was that of course lockdowns are justified and no dissent could be tolerated.

    People identify your views on traffic/car usage as "out there" but acknowledge that it is a legitimate point of view, albeit one they disagree (strongly) with.

    On Ukraine (and, previously, on lockdown) posters sought to deligitimise any view which contravened the orthodoxy of the time. Then it was lockdowns, now it is Ukraine.
  • I question the idea that we just make Russia lose is the solution to the problem. I think you're desperately naive if you think everything will be solved if/when they lose.

    I personally would like them to lose with as few casualties as possible on both sides but I do not believe a defeat will change the world at all.

    And the idea they'll actually just go back to the situation prior to 2014 - which I think is what you advocate? - seems fantasy.
    I don't think everything will be solved if they lose.

    I do think Ukraine will be free if they lose.

    I support Ukraine being free. All of Ukraine being free.
  • Except your facts are wrong again.

    The ones saying the war would be over quickly were those saying that Russia would be in Kyiv in days so no reason to support Ukraine.

    Those of us in favour of Ukraine's self-defence are saying to support Ukraine however long the war takes, not for days or weeks or months. If it takes years, we should support them for years.

    And I don't know a single person saying "just murder Russia". Who's seriously suggesting Moscow should be invaded? As opposed to jokes about the Ukraine/Republic of China border.

    Wanting Ukraine free and secure, wanting Crimea and other occupied territory liberated != murdering Russia.
    The idea this is going to happen seems for the birds. Without murdering Russia which I feel is the implication, how on Earth do you expect to achieve this?
  • I don't think everything will be solved if they lose.

    I do think Ukraine will be free if they lose.

    I support Ukraine being free. All of Ukraine being free.
    But how do you intend to achieve a pre-2014 situation without having Russia completely destroyed? I just fail to understand how you think this will be achieved without a very bloody, potentially nuke-heavy war.
  • The idea this is going to happen seems for the birds. Without murdering Russia which I feel is the implication, how on Earth do you expect to achieve this?
    By liberating the land, same as how Kharkiv and Kherson were liberated.

    Why don't you think it can happen?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,087
    Carnyx said:

    Sure, but the SNP stood in far fewer constituencies, so in that sense they were handicapping themselves. That's where the argument for fairness falls down. As noted below, consider the Labour party as one whole, or as Scottish Labour + rUK Labour as they overtly claim to be at elections. The result is the same bvut the fairness analysis quite different.
    Carnyx, you could just have said he was talking absolute bollox and applying usual unionist lies around fudging teh figures to detriment of SNP. They cannot help themselves being so biased.
  • But how do you intend to achieve a pre-2014 situation without having Russia completely destroyed? I just fail to understand how you think this will be achieved without a very bloody, potentially nuke-heavy war.
    By liberating Ukraine's land, not by nuking Moscow.

    It may be very bloody, but if its bloody and Ukrainians are prepared to sacrifice that blood to secure their own liberty, then its a fight worth having.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    edited August 2023

    There is definitely a pattern of shutting people down who are not 100% on "just fuck Russia into the ground".

    I don't think that's entirely fair, nor do I get the impression you are shut down on this issue.

    I do think there's some conflation of what people think Ukraine should do and how much those outside of Ukraine should support what that country is doing.

    FWIW I believe Ukraine has choices, all of them bad. I am not convinced their current choice of energetically facing down Russian aggression is the worst of those choices. I can explain my reasons why I think it might be the least worst choice for them. It is in any case the choice they have made.

    I don't see any reason why we wouldn't support Ukraine in fighting on, if that's what they choose to do.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,189

    "Dissenting views are not allowed" says one of the half a dozen plus users who routinely post dissenting views, and routinely say they are not allowed to.

    Drawing a response doesn't mean your views are not allowed, I've quite often received a very vituperative response for my views on Brexit, or that (after you helped convince me) it'd be better to have had no lockdown even if it means more people would have died - but that doesn't mean such views aren't allowed, it just means others vehemently disagree.
    PB Toy Soldiers vs PB Toy Kissingers
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,668
    eek said:

    Can I give Newquest the award for covering all sectors in this A level results story

    https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/23728110.ukrainian-twins-studying-harrogate-achieve-top-grades/

    Refugees, Young (photogenic) girls and decent results.

    The only flaw is they sensible refused to be pictured jumping...

    8/10

    They’ve got to be jumping to warrant an award.
  • By liberating Ukraine's land, not by nuking Moscow.

    It may be very bloody, but if its bloody and Ukrainians are prepared to sacrifice that blood to secure their own liberty, then its a fight worth having.

    I do not see all of Ukraine's land ever being liberated. That's not a reason not to try I just think realistically it isn't going to happen.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,793
    TOPPING said:

    Actually, lockdown is a good example. Look at the vitriol poured upon people who said - at the time - that they were mistaken. It was PB groupthink and posts condemned that point of view in terms which went beyond argument or reason but simply appealed to "what was right" - the orthodoxy was that of course lockdowns are justified and no dissent could be tolerated.

    People identify your views on traffic/car usage as "out there" but acknowledge that it is a legitimate point of view, albeit one they disagree (strongly) with.

    On Ukraine (and, previously, on lockdown) posters sought to deligitimise any view which contravened the orthodoxy of the time. Then it was lockdowns, now it is Ukraine.
    You seem to spend far more time saying you're not allowed to give your view on Ukraine than giving your view on Ukraine. In fact this seems to be your main view on Ukraine - that you can't give it.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    edited August 2023

    The idea this is going to happen seems for the birds. Without murdering Russia which I feel is the implication, how on Earth do you expect to achieve this?
    Crimea is very vulnerable. The land link is from Ukraine not Russia. You could get to a point where there is a political solution. The idea that Crimea is existential for Russia is laughable. The equivalent in size terms for Great Britain would be the Isle Of Wight.

    And I don't know what you mean by 'murdering' Russia.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,668
    Nigelb said:

    Texas woman arrested for threatening to murder the Trump judge.

    “In a post [sent out by Trump & written by his ally], the lawyer Mike Davis, a large photo of Judge Chutkan accompanied text that falsely claimed she had ‘openly admitted she’s running election interference against Trump.’” That triggered the murder threat
    https://twitter.com/tribelaw/status/1692114464638685245

    “When federal agents visited Ms. Shry at home three days after she left the message for Judge Chutkan, she admitted that she had called the judge’s chambers, the complaint said. Ms. Shry told the agents that she had no plans to go to Washington or to Houston, the area that Ms. Lee represents. But she also said that “if Sheila Jackson Lee comes to Alvin, then we need to worry,” according to the complaint.”

    The last sentence is a good example of what not to say to federal agents investigating threats you’ve made.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,189

    But how do you intend to achieve a pre-2014 situation without having Russia completely destroyed? I just fail to understand how you think this will be achieved without a very bloody, potentially nuke-heavy war.
    Which rather assumes that the Ukrainians will do what they’re told.

    If we have to give something to the imperialists in Moscow, what about the revanchists you will create in Ukraine?

    The maths is fairly obvious - they will dig the plutonium out of the cooling ponds around the reactors and build a bomb. Given the US tested a device with more than 20% 240, so called civil plutonium.. isn’t.

    Why do you think the Russians are demanding the right to seize the power stations. And why do you think the US is reluctant to have over heavy, long ranged missiles?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703

    By liberating Ukraine's land, not by nuking Moscow.

    It may be very bloody, but if its bloody and Ukrainians are prepared to sacrifice that blood to secure their own liberty, then its a fight worth having.
    The only people who can decide on whether to negotiate a settlement are the Ukrainian people (note @Nigelb that has always been my position). Now, whether the US will dictate at some point when that moment comes I have no idea. But if they want to keep on fighting then they should keep on fighting.

    Which brings us onto our response. You and I have crossed swords before on this because you have said (IIRC) words to the effect of we should do anything it takes to bring about a Ukrainian victory. I demurred because transparently obviously we are not doing that now and have no intention of doing it in future.

    We have even discussed the use of nuclear weapons which you have advocated (again IIRC, and lead us to a somewhat absurd discussion about (me inferring that) you wanted to sacrifice your children to liberate Ukraine). I do not want a nuclear holocaust in order to regain Crimea for Ukraine - whatever that would mean after a nuclear holocaust.

    But the point is that when (not shut down) posters opine on the war, unless they tow the PB party line and adhere to the orthodoxy the response is weirdly vituperative.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,687

    Crimea is very vulnerable. The land link is from Ukraine not Russia. You could get to a point where there is a political solution. The idea that Crimea is existential for Russia is laughable. The equivalent in size terms for Great Britain would be the Isle Of Wight....
    Remembering the furore a while ago, when it was suggested that France might cut off the power supply to one of the Channel islands, that's perhaps not a killer point.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    kinabalu said:

    You seem to spend far more time saying you're not allowed to give your view on Ukraine than giving your view on Ukraine. In fact this seems to be your main view on Ukraine - that you can't give it.
    You first.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,476
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Booth, my understanding is the land approach is pretty difficult to Crimea. Against that, blowing the dam meant Russia destroyed the water channel that was responsible for 85% of Crimea's water. That's exactly indicative of long term planning. But they're never going to let Sevastopol[sp] go if they can help it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,687
    TOPPING said:

    The only people who can decide on whether to negotiate a settlement are the Ukrainian people (note @Nigelb that has always been my position)...
    We don't disagree on that.
  • Crimea is very vulnerable. The land link is from Ukraine not Russia. You could get to a point where there is a political solution. The idea that Crimea is existential for Russia is laughable. The equivalent in size terms for Great Britain would be the Isle Of Wight.

    And I don't know what you mean by 'murdering' Russia.

    Thank you for engaging with me.

    In order to achieve a pre-2014 settlement, it seems to me that Russia will have to be completely annihilated, which in practice either means having Putin deposed and installing a pro-western leader (not going to happen), or bombing them to death, with or without nukes.

    I just do not see a situation within the current conflict that will present a 2014-era situation without some kind of catastrophe on either side, which probably means the US getting involved for some reason. They won't want to do that so it will be a stalemate.

    I believe this war will resolve nothing and will achieve nothing, it will not return to pre-2014 though, I am fairly confident of that - but as we know my predictions have never been particular good
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,687
    Interesting article.
    Onetime Florida Republican.

    The Hard-Tweeting Defense Lawyer GOP Candidates Have Learned to Fear
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/08/17/ron-filipkowski-desantis-trump-00110950
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    edited August 2023

    The orthodoxy has lately for some started to spread beyond things like lockdown too @TOPPING - the same arguments used for lockdown are now being used on other subjects.

    Recently when discussing traffic some in the anti-car brigade have taken to trying to use the fact road traffic accidents happen as a killer argument and basically taken a zero covid/zero accident attitude, suggesting that being OK with the fact life has risk is wanting to "kill toddlers".

    Drawing a strong response isn't unique to Ukraine. Its simply what happens when you argue on the internet.

    No, it's what happens when you argue on the internet. You draw up non existent battle lines ("the anti-car brigade"), you promote cheesy movie lines to Eternal Verities ("life has risk, death is a natural part of life") from which you then argue individual cases, like the deaths of under 5 year old RTA victims, without acknowledging that, for instance, half the legislation on the statute book is designed to minimise risk and stave off death, and your level of zoom is locked at the point where it sees you happily driving your Octavia around Greater Manchester and you cannot conceive of things being any other way.

    In fact cars are ridiculously dangerous, expensive and resource-intensive things, and there is no way we can continue to afford them; especially if, as you presumably want, the developing world's living standards rise to match ours. It is magical thinking to believe that converting them from horrid dirty ICE to magic techie shiny electric waves away these fundamental problems. They are on the way out. This may be incredible to you, but have a read of When William Came by Saki, 1913. It's a Man In The High Castle novel about England after German conquest, and one of the most appalling things Saki can imagine is that "No weapons other than guns for specified sporting purposes, duly declared and registered and open to inspection when required, could be owned, purchased, or carried." What happened next?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    TOPPING said:

    The only people who can decide on whether to negotiate a settlement are the Ukrainian people (note @Nigelb that has always been my position). Now, whether the US will dictate at some point when that moment comes I have no idea. But if they want to keep on fighting then they should keep on fighting.

    Which brings us onto our response. You and I have crossed swords before on this because you have said (IIRC) words to the effect of we should do anything it takes to bring about a Ukrainian victory. I demurred because transparently obviously we are not doing that now and have no intention of doing it in future.

    We have even discussed the use of nuclear weapons which you have advocated (again IIRC, and lead us to a somewhat absurd discussion about (me inferring that) you wanted to sacrifice your children to liberate Ukraine). I do not want a nuclear holocaust in order to regain Crimea for Ukraine - whatever that would mean after a nuclear holocaust.

    But the point is that when (not shut down) posters opine on the war, unless they tow the PB party line and adhere to the orthodoxy the response is weirdly vituperative.
    In fairness, I think it was armchair field marshal Josias that used the trite "anything it takes" line. Bart has been much more measured. He made a reasonable answer yesterday calling for strong backing while not committing any Nato troops.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,263

    The conversation is shutting people down for having a different opinion. And as you piped up to respond I suspect you know that.
    Nobody on here, by definition, has been shut down, People who have been shut down includes @RodCrosby, @isam, @StuartDickson, @MrEd, and now @DJ41bis and his predecessors. Even banned commenters come back under different names, such as [redacted] and [redacted]. Enough of this "people disagree with me online"="shutting down" malarkey, please
  • In fairness, I think it was armchair field marshal Josias that used the trite "anything it takes" line. Bart has been much more measured. He made a reasonable answer yesterday calling for strong backing while not committing any Nato troops.

    I wasn't wishing to accuse Bart of anything in particular, just some of the posts I have seen have essentially advocated destroying Russia in order to free Ukraine.

    I just do not see how we go back to a pre-2014 situation at the moment, Putin isn't going to do it and any replacement will surely be even more hardline.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,668

    But how do you intend to achieve a pre-2014 situation without having Russia completely destroyed? I just fail to understand how you think this will be achieved without a very bloody, potentially nuke-heavy war.
    I don’t know what will happen with Ukraine, but I don’t see why Russia being completely destroyed is the only outcome that could get us to the pre-2014 borders. Moscow has historically completely withdrawn from a variety of situation without the complete destruction of the country: from Finland, from Afghanistan, from the Warsaw Pact countries, from the other SSRs (including Ukraine) when the USSR was dissolved.
  • viewcode said:

    Nobody on here, by definition, has been shut down, People who have been shut down includes @RodCrosby, @isam, @StuartDickson, @MrEd, and now @DJ41bis and his predecessors. Even banned commenters come back under different names, such as [redacted] and [redacted]. Enough of this "people disagree with me online"="shutting down" malarkey, please
    I would like to speak up for @CorrectHorseBattery, who has been shut down and not been allowed back :D
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,310
    TOPPING said:


    But the point is that when (not shut down) posters opine on the war, unless they tow the PB party line and adhere to the orthodoxy the response is weirdly vituperative.

    It's not really vituperation because none of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Ukraine on here are that good at bantz in general or insults in particular.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,087
    Carnyx said:

    Sure, but the SNP stood in far fewer constituencies, so in that sense they were handicapping themselves. That's where the argument for fairness falls down. As noted below, consider the Labour party as one whole, or as Scottish Labour + rUK Labour as they overtly claim to be at elections. The result is the same bvut the fairness analysis quite different.
    Carnyx, you could just have said he was talking absolute bollox and applying usual unionist lies around fudging teh figures to detriment of SNP.
    TOPPING said:

    You know how we Brits like to dress up.


    Not hard to see which lot look the best
  • Dura_Ace said:

    It's not really vituperation because none of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Ukraine on here are that good at bantz in general or insults in particular.
    I am top quality banter, in fact they call me CorrectHorseBantz
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,263

    I would like to speak up for @CorrectHorseBattery, who has been shut down and not been allowed back :D
    I had genuinely forgotten! [looks embarrassed]
  • @MrEd was a perfect example of the orthodoxy of this site. He was accused of being a Russian stooge just because he had a slightly different opinion.

    He was a perfectly nice and pleasant chap and had an interesting perspective. Certain users just use to shout and dump on him at every occasion.

    I'd like him to come back, along with @StuartDickson who I disagreed with on basically everything but again had an interesting perspective.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,087

    But how do you intend to achieve a pre-2014 situation without having Russia completely destroyed? I just fail to understand how you think this will be achieved without a very bloody, potentially nuke-heavy war.
    Where you been last 2 years and nuke heavy my arse.
  • viewcode said:

    I had genuinely forgotten! [looks embarrassed]
    It's okay viewcode, CHB is very forgettable
  • I do not see all of Ukraine's land ever being liberated. That's not a reason not to try I just think realistically it isn't going to happen.
    Why not?

    Ukraine has already shown it can liberate land. It's done so for Kharkiv and Kherson, so why not Melitipol or Sevastopol?

    Russia won't want Moscow nuked for Sevastopol any more than America would have wanted W DC or New York nuked for Kabul. So nukes aren't relevant to the conversation.

    What matters is how the fight progresses on the battlefield. If they can liberate Kherson, they can possibly liberate Sevastopol, we just need to give them whatever support they need for as long as they want to fight for their own freedom.
  • malcolmg said:

    Where you been last 2 years and nuke heavy my arse.
    Good to chat with you once again malc, I maintain that a pre-2014 situation seems unlikely.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,807
    Miklosvar said:

    No, it's what happens when you argue on the internet. You draw up non existent battle lines ("the anti-car brigade"), you promote cheesy movie lines to Eternal Verities ("life has risk, death is a natural part of life") from which you then argue individual cases, like the deaths of under 5 year old RTA victims, without acknowledging that, for instance, half the legislation on the statute book is designed to minimise risk and stave off death, and your level of zoom is locked at the point where it sees you happily driving your Octavia around Greater Manchester and you cannot conceive of things being any other way.

    In fact cars are ridiculously dangerous, expensive and resource-intensive things, and there is no way we can continue to afford them; especially if, as you presumably want, the developing world's living standards rise to match ours. It is magical thinking to believe that converting them from horrid dirty ICE to magic techie shiny electric waves away these fundamental problems. They are on the way out. This may be incredible to you, but have a read of When William Came by Saki, 1913. It's a Man In The High Castle novel about England after German conquest, and one of the most appalling things Saki can imagine is that "No weapons other than guns for specified sporting purposes, duly declared and registered and open to inspection when required, could be owned, purchased, or carried." What happened next?
    What an extraordinary argument. And rather shocking that two users of the site have 'liked' it.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,263
    Anyway, while I'm here, why do Tesco Superstores not stock Smoked Ham and Cheese Toasties, but Tesco Express/Metros do?

    https://www.tesco.com/groceries/en-GB/products/308476950
  • https://twitter.com/TTRadioOfficial/status/1692117252156391767

    Gillian Keegan on this year’s A Level results 👇

    I totally agree - so it is bemusing that we put so much weight on them, isn't it Gill?
  • Why not?

    Ukraine has already shown it can liberate land. It's done so for Kharkiv and Kherson, so why not Melitipol or Sevastopol?

    Russia won't want Moscow nuked for Sevastopol any more than America would have wanted W DC or New York nuked for Kabul. So nukes aren't relevant to the conversation.

    What matters is how the fight progresses on the battlefield. If they can liberate Kherson, they can possibly liberate Sevastopol, we just need to give them whatever support they need for as long as they want to fight for their own freedom.
    They're not relevant because you don't want to talk about it. But the reality is that Russia has nukes - and Putin has very little left to lose.

    I do not understand why this isn't more widely discussed.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855

    What an extraordinary argument. And rather shocking that two users of the site have 'liked' it.
    Which bit? Are you saying that humans have always had cars, always will have, and any suggestion to the contrary is deranged fantasy?
  • Miklosvar said:

    Which bit? Are you saying that humans have always had cars, always will have, and any suggestion to the contrary is deranged fantasy?
    Luckyguy ironically proves your point.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Aristocracy coordinator.
    Real posh = Dunlop wellies and a Lada Niva.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022

    They're not relevant because you don't want to talk about it. But the reality is that Russia has nukes - and Putin has very little left to lose.

    I do not understand why this isn't more widely discussed.
    They have done nothing since February 2022 to put their nuclear arsenal on a higher alert. I think China and India have been pretty clear they would regard any nuclear escalation as intolerable.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703

    Why not?

    Ukraine has already shown it can liberate land. It's done so for Kharkiv and Kherson, so why not Melitipol or Sevastopol?

    Russia won't want Moscow nuked for Sevastopol any more than America would have wanted W DC or New York nuked for Kabul. So nukes aren't relevant to the conversation.

    What matters is how the fight progresses on the battlefield. If they can liberate Kherson, they can possibly liberate Sevastopol, we just need to give them whatever support they need for as long as they want to fight for their own freedom.
    "whatever support they need for as long as they want"

    @Anabobazina this is the sort of thing I was referring to.
  • They have done nothing since February 2022 to put their nuclear arsenal on a higher alert. I think China and India have been pretty clear they would regard any nuclear escalation as intolerable.
    I think a lot of people thought Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine...
  • TOPPING said:

    "whatever support they need for as long as they want"

    @Anabobazina this is the sort of thing I was referring to.
    The problem is that anyone saying we do anything short of "anything" is seemingly letting the side down.

    There must be some limit, so what is it?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    viewcode said:

    Anyway, while I'm here, why do Tesco Superstores not stock Smoked Ham and Cheese Toasties, but Tesco Express/Metros do?

    https://www.tesco.com/groceries/en-GB/products/308476950

    If you substitute Cap d'Antibes for Tescos and Plat de Fruits de Mer for Smoked Ham and Cheese Toasties then you have just the sort of comment that @DJ41bis loathes so much
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,087

    Superb post even if I disagreed with mostly every word. Much more thoughtful than Leon's attention seeking about aliens.
    It was just a load of verbal diahorrea from an arse in my opinion. Clown even says when "I did hang out here" when he obviously still does. A fanny for sure.
  • malcolmg said:

    It was just a load of verbal diahorrea from an arse in my opinion. Clown even says when "I did hang out here" when he obviously still does. A fanny for sure.
    We'd be much worse off if you left, I wouldn't have anyone to laugh at.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,668

    They're not relevant because you don't want to talk about it. But the reality is that Russia has nukes - and Putin has very little left to lose.

    I do not understand why this isn't more widely discussed.
    Moscow has had nukes for about 70 years and never used them, not when losing in Afghanistan, not when their troops had to pull out of Eastern Europe, not when the USSR broke up.

    Putin effectively rules Russia + a bit of Ukraine + a bit of Georgia. He has a lot to lose, notably being the kleptocratic ruler of Russia with a luxury lifestyle. If holding on to bits of Ukraine jeopardises that, I can see him giving up on Ukraine.

    How widely discussed do you want this to be? It’s mentioned a few times every week on PB. I’ve seen articles on it in various major periodicals and newspapers.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,807
    Miklosvar said:

    Which bit? Are you saying that humans have always had cars, always will have, and any suggestion to the contrary is deranged fantasy?
    I'm saying that humans have always striven toward greater freedom, wellbeing, and prosperity, always will do, and any suggestion to the contrary is a deranged fantasy. That includes personal transportation.
  • They're not relevant because you don't want to talk about it. But the reality is that Russia has nukes - and Putin has very little left to lose.

    I do not understand why this isn't more widely discussed.
    It's not widely discussed because its not true.

    Losing Ukraine is not losing Russia.

    Losing Crimea is not losing Moscow.

    So let's get back to the real world. It's simply a conventional war, and a conventional war can be won by either side. Russia has seized land in this war, and Ukraine has liberated seized land (including some land seized since in 2014) so both are clearly possible.
  • TOPPING said:

    "whatever support they need for as long as they want"

    @Anabobazina this is the sort of thing I was referring to.
    Zelensky would have to be remarkably naive to believe that NATO will supply weapons without having a say in the end-game. I don’t believe he is.
  • It's not widely discussed because its not true.

    Losing Ukraine is not losing Russia.

    Losing Crimea is not losing Moscow.

    So let's get back to the real world. It's simply a conventional war, and a conventional war can be won by either side. Russia has seized land in this war, and Ukraine has liberated seized land (including some land seized since in 2014) so both are clearly possible.
    Russia most certainly has nukes.

    You said above we must do "whatever it takes".
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,518

    It's not widely discussed because its not true.

    Losing Ukraine is not losing Russia.

    Losing Crimea is not losing Moscow.

    So let's get back to the real world. It's simply a conventional war, and a conventional war can be won by either side. Russia has seized land in this war, and Ukraine has liberated seized land (including some land seized since in 2014) so both are clearly possible.
    The Crimea is not Russia. Sevastopol is not Moscow.

    Who said that?
  • Russia most certainly has nukes.

    You said above we must do "whatever it takes".
    Russia does have nukes and yes we should do whatever it takes. What's not true is what I responded to which was the claim "Putin has very little left to lose"

    Putin has Moscow and the rest of Russia left to lose. If the choice is lose Crimea, or lose Crimea and Moscow, then Putin will lose Crimea. He is not going to seek to lose Moscow.
  • ydoethur said:

    The Crimea is not Russia. Sevastopol is not Moscow.

    Who said that?
    @CorrectHorseBat said Putin has little left to lose.

    Putin has Russia and Moscow left to lose. Which is why he's not using nukes. It's why nukes have never been used by a losing side in a conventional war.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    PB Toy Soldiers vs PB Toy Kissingers
    UNless the Toy Soldiers are Games Warehouse ones, in which case they form a completely different category.
This discussion has been closed.