Remember the rules have changed for the London Mayoral election – politicalbetting.com
Remember the rules have changed for the London Mayoral election – politicalbetting.com
Next May Labour’s Sadiq Khan will be seeking to defend his position as Mayor of London – a post that was first contested in May 2000.
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Wineer 1st round 2nd round
2021 53.1 Lab 55.2
2016 55.8 Lab 56.8
2012 52.2 Con 51.5
2008 53.9 Con 53.2
So the change would have advantaged the Conservative candidate in all cases, but in no cases by more than a couple of points. And of course we don't know how, if at all, people's voting habits will be affected by the change (my guess is they won't be because vanishingly few will notice and those that would probably wouldn't vote Conservative anyway).
Please tell me that @elonmusk didn’t submit an unsolicited bid to acquire US Steel, a company with a $5B market cap, just to acquire the $X stock symbol.
Buy a majority stake in US Steel.
Sell everything else then reverse Twitter into the cash shell at a value close to what he paid for it. Job done.
He bought it at 8.5x sales. If he gets 8x sales now (bearing mind tech stocks have gone down *and* he overpaid), then he'd get a value of around $28bn.
Of course the debt holders would be made whole, which means that the equity holders would have lost about two-thirds of their money.
Should Twitter then start growing nicely (and earning money) again, then it would be an interesting investment.
But (and this is not advice), if I were to put money anywhere, I think it would probably be Twitter - sorry X - debt.
Edit: to be fair to the US, according to wiki neither Bermuda nor BVI require a mandatory offer either
Contractors told about legionella on day asylum seekers boarded barge
Dorset council says it flagged test results about potentially deadly bacteria on Monday, but evacuation didn’t take place until four days later
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/aug/13/home-office-was-told-about-legionella-on-refugees-barge-on-day-they-boarded
For those of us betting, as well as commentating, this sort of empirical data is really helpful.
👏
Or do you just mean that in all cases the candidate who led in the first round went on to win anyway?
Round 1:
Lab 40.0, Con 35.3, Everyone else 24.7
Round 2:
Lab 55.2, Con 44.8
I think what the previous post is saying is that in Round 1, Lab got 53.1% of the combined Lab + Con vote, not 53.1% of the total vote.
ie 40.0/75.3 = 53.1%
That Barclay is some boy.
ETA this is reminiscent of the tail end of the Major government, where ministers forgot that whatever the official line, people knew how long they, their friends and families had been waiting.
It's very likely everywhere will still end up with the same winner - although Teesside is going to be interesting as the shine is definitely coming off Ben Houchen.
This letter to Redcar council shows the scale of the problem. His budget used to pay for the free parking but now that budget has been cut he's trying to blame the local councils (who are now no longer Tory lead for the obvious reason that they didn't actually deliver anything).
https://www.darlingtonandstocktontimes.co.uk/news/23707036.tees-valley-mayor-ben-houchens-parking-funds-response-criticised/
Anyone waiting in England is going to be thinking I could have been seen earlier if it was for this interferring.
(Said no-one who’s ever experienced any other healthcare system in an OECD country).
O/T but interesting - that bridge swamped in concrete is being remediated.
I say good luck to him. Publish and be damned. A sensitive and intellectual man, who might have been a disappointment in office but by god he was better than what America is offered now
Forget boats, this is Mr Sunak's problem. Well, not for him personally, but for very many voters food inflation is baked in - prices need to fall a looooooong way before we are even back at the point we were, even compared to wider inflation (which has not, on the whole, been compensated for in wages).
"Food price inflation has slowed in recent months, but costs remain much higher than they were two years ago, disproportionally affecting low-income households, according to research by consumer body Which? shared exclusively with the Guardian.
The annual pace of grocery price growth cooled to 14.9% over the four weeks to 9 July, down from 16.5% a month earlier, according to the latest analysis by retail industry data provider Kantar.
Despite the slowdown, Which? figures showed that food prices have risen significantly over the past two years, and some products have gone up more than 30% since 2021.
The food products with the highest rates of inflation are milk (36.4%), cheese (35.2%), butters and spreads (32.2%), cakes and cookies (31.2%), and bakery items (30.3%)."
Re 'worse', see the discussion yesterday - depends how you define 'worse'. Also, stats differently defined.
Oh dear
He still seems enviably smart, sharp and vigorous - compared to Trump or Biden. He probably got the job too young (when he was susceptible to the flattery you mention). He’d be better now. He’s also aware to the dangers of Woke, and has spoken of it
Comparing how the devolved regions of the UK are faring is much more appropriate, as both went through the pandemic at the same time.
Of course the real disaster was to turn the NHS into the National Covid Service and to terrify the public into going along with it, but as all main parties approved of that, and all the other disastrous COVID measures we took, they can't rationally criticise it, so there is a conspiracy of silence on that.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/23607689.scotland-england-behind-nhs-waiting-list-divide/
And, FWIW, he was instrumental in persuading Biden not to run.
That seems true of far too many in this country. The police, as Cyclefree has constantly shown. The water companies. OFSTED. The Home Office. I'm sure many could list others from their own experience.
Serve the bastards right that they got their comeuppance here.
What alarms me is that they thought it worth spending £450,000 to avoid admitting a mistake/crime (delete according to taste) that would have cost £430,000 to reverse. Somebody needs to be investigated for that as well.
Especially with respect to the handling of Russia/Ukraine.
Those taking credit for a program they voted against, even more so.
Democrats’ climate law set off a wave of energy projects in GOP districts. A backlash followed.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/13/biden-inflation-reduction-act-climate-states-00110940
Ultimately you get what you vote for, and so many American shitkickers vote for more shit to kick. And have done for years thanks to the power of money offering a choice of political parties both of whom are corrupt to their core.
The 450k was about saving management face. And trying to stop enquiries.
I predict
1) a junior engineer who got the coffees for the meeting that made the decision will be blamed. Sort of.
2) Lessons Will Be Learned
3) the people actually involved will move on to better paid, more responsible jobs. Probably responsible for major national historic monuments.
#NU10K
U.S. Steel switches from 12-hour to 8-hour workdays - becoming the second company after Ford Motors to do so.
https://twitter.com/100YearsAgoLive/status/1690767469961482240
Both Hillary and Joe had compromised national security issues. Somewhat ironic after what came next.
Something in me rebels against a takeaway costing £50. It should rightfully be ~£30
Ultimately when you keep separating powers, and America has taken the concept to ridiculous extremes, then you are going to get elected individuals at multiple tiers who can block and confront each other, and blame each other, so that nobody gets shit done and nobody takes responsibility.
We saw it in this country too with the EU, and we see it in this country still today with Scotland. And we see it with NIMBY Councils wanting to abuse their powers on a crappy turnout.
There needs to be someone saying "the buck stops here" and getting stuff done. Its why I backed Brexit, and Scottish independence, and stripping Councils of their right to interfere in construction projects which should instead be based on national laws and standards.
That's Bedford, Cambridgeshire, probably some others (especially the new ones). But, unless Jezza or someone similar goes for it, Sadiq should be safe enough.
For those who don't remember Jamie Driscoll is the North of Tyne Mayor who the NEC didn't allow to stand.
Kim McGuinness has social media posts that should have removed her from standing as well.
There is a tendency to think - as epitomised by @RochdalePioneers' post - that Obama was trying desperately to overcome resistance and compromise at every opportunity for the good of the country. In fact, he was very divisive - we got the schick about 'Hope' etc but, in the US, he was probably one of the most partisan Presidents ever. He wasn't interested in building bridges across the aisle.
I will lay aside the fact he was not a great President to put it mildly (Ukraine is where it is because of his weakness) but. in trying to push through his agenda, he caused problems for the Democrats later on. So he supported abolishing the filibuster for Cabinet officials and federal judges and, lo and behold, McConnell hot his own back by abolishing it for Supreme Court Justice nominations. Hence the current composition.
One final point. Since the Civil War, the precedent is that ex-Presidents take themselves out of town so as not to be seen to be overshadowing the incoming administration (Woodrow Wilson didn't because he was too ill to move). Obama hasn't and has kept himself very much in DC land - ostensibly for his daughter's school but more likely both to be at the heart of the post-2016 Democrat party.
At the next GE, your average middle-class 35-year-old will likely have had a iPhone and a Facebook account since they were 18 - and so will all of their friends and acquaintances.
The problem with most 'social media' controversy when it kicks off with politicians and candidates is that it doesn't date back to what they said over a decade ago, its almost always about what they were actively saying very recently.
A bit like Corbyn, some people liked to claim things were decades old and muckraking, but he'd never changed and the incidents of antisemitism he was personally involved in dated right up to the point he became Leader of the Opposition.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/08/14/covid-inquiry-silencing-children-claim-charities/
Just a shame none of them are candidates for President.
One thing Biden has done well, and one reason I rate him as the best of the 21st century Presidents so far of any party, is that he worked hard at reaching across the aisle, and building bipartisan agreements especially on Ukraine. No mean feat in 21st century America.
Despite the very weak on foreign policy candidates in the GOP like Trump and De Santis and the grip they hold on much of the party, a lot of GOP Senators have held their backbone and supported bipartisan support for Ukraine. Hopefully that continues into the future.
game. Especially with things such as drug use and sex work, as well as controversial political statements.
When the camera approaches Biden I fiercely cringe in anticipation of him saying something weird, sad, incoherent and plain bonkers, and when the camera approaches Trump I either gaze in horror or yield to nihilistic laughter and have a large gin
No Trump presidency. No MAGA bullshit. No hollowing out of the Republican Party. No attempted coup.
Of course, that might mean they went for someone even nuttier like DeSantis in 2020. But no Trump would definitely have been a good start.
I think it was Paul Linford said the key to understanding 2016 was that Clinton and Trump were the only candidates the other one could beat. Literally anyone else for the Republicans and Clinton would have been nowhere. Anyone else for the Dems and Trump would have lost.
2016 was a tragedy, however you cut it.
Biden has been a far better President than Obama, not because he's been more charming, but because he's got the job done.
Biden is more shrewd than Obama. His background helps, he's an old-school Senator who is used to working in bipartisan agreements in the Senate. Despite the hyper-partisan nature of 21st Century American politics he's been able to reach across the aisle time and again to get agreements made, whether it be supporting Ukraine, or getting the debt ceiling lifted without a shutdown.
He's also not been suckered in by Putin, in the way that Trump was and still is, and Obama was.
Basically they disperse trouble over extended time.
In the end (Iraq is a classic) the reports are so long that even the serious media can't cope with it.
The list is endless, and the current list is quite long.
Virtually all of America’s problems have got way worse under Biden, life expectancy is plunging, the cities burn, he’s helpless with Wokeness, and as for foreign policy he did a cut and run in Afghanistan which was far worse than any error by obama. And he emboldened Putin
Go do a drive around inland America. This is a tottering empire under a doddering leader. He’s the perfect emblem, in that way
If it is held solely under FPTP next year you could see Khan, Corbyn and Hall all on 25 to 30% of the vote and each with a chance of winning. Whereas on the old system where preferences would decide the winner between the top 2 either Khan or Corbyn would likely easily beat Hall in London depending on which of them got to that last two
No, I rate Biden because I rate Biden, not simply Trump. I didn't say that Biden was better than Trump, I said he was better than Obama too.
"Wokeness" is not a real problem, just press the X button on the top-right hand corner of the browser showing X and move on with your life.
Life expectancy is falling because of drugs and other issues that are not in the Presidents immediate control to turn around in 3 years.
Maui is burning because of the climate its in. Fires happen sometimes. Your hyperventilating about American cities is mostly (but not entirely) unjustified.
And as for Afghanistan the agreement to leave Afghanistan was signed under his predecessor, not him, and besides after two decades it would have been absurd to reverse that agreement anyway.
Biden is the best foreign policy president since George Bush I.
Biden is the best of those elected in the 21st Century though, easily.
To be fair to Obama on Iraq, once Bush and, to his shame, Blair had unleashed the dogs of war there was no good outcome likely or even possible.
There were no good outcomes pre-war. War sometimes is a lesser evil, but lets not pretend that Saddam's Iraq was sunshine and roses.
So the moment Kim McGuinness got the nod her racists post where discovered and highlighted (now deleted by the looks of things but the damage was done).
That's a country designed around the open road, as it works, and is more modern without our clinging onto the pre-technological past. As a result they have a much higher standard of living, despite their great many other problems like endemic racism, guns and drugs.
1. OhMyGod we're all gonna die! The Tory plan to kill YOUR granny to save Whetherspoons.
2. The Covid rules are so confusing - why can't I do x if so-and-so is doing y?
3. Hypocrisy!
They are consequently only interested in the inquiry insofar as it touches on these stories, and even then only the first and third of these. I have been very critical of the government's failures over Covid, but the media manage to make them look good.
And if he had, he'd almost certainly have been replaced with another Ba'athist anyway.
Unpopular opinion in today's west, but Iraq despite its problems is now a much better for us having invaded and freed them from Hussein's dictatorship.
Just a shame we didn't have the same lasting success in Afghanistan.
https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1690795391074123776