politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories equal their lowest ever YouGov rating in the latest

YouGov/The Sunil:

Tory/UKIP 43%
Labour 38%

Interesting others have shot up 3% in a day

Mr. Eagles, didn't he decide not to play in France due to a slight injury to help ensure he'd be better for Wimbledon?

Clay's not his best surface.

On the poll: who would have imagined public bickering (and potential smearing) would lead to such results.

F1: early discussion for Monaco is here:
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05/monaco-early-discussion.html

FPT

smithersjones2013 said:

GloucesterOldSpot said:

Can the good news get any better?

Headline inflation (CPI) falls from 2.8% in March to 2.4% in April. Main driver is lower fuel and transport costs (-0.29%) but most welcome will be fall in food prices (-0.1%) which have consistently been rising at higher (4.0% +) than headline rates over the past two years.

Those arguing (probably correctly) that falling oil prices and a high sterling value in March will not persist as an inflation suppressant should not despair. Factory gate inflation also fell from 1.9% to 1.1% on a monthly basis.

The new CPIH Index, which is designed to measure home owner inflation, fell too, from 2.6% to 2.2%, against the fearmongering of the housing bubble Cassandras.

All much better news than expected. Consensus was for the rate of CPI increase to fall to 2.7% (Actual 2.4%) and for Factory Gate Inflation to 1.6% (1.1%).

All this explains the spring in Sir Merv's step and the catlike smile crossing his lips as he nears the end of his relationship with the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street.

Economic metrics which better consensus forecasts usually indicate rapidly improving economic performance. If Sir Merv. is looking smug, the next Ballentaylor and Ballylemon baronet is purring with satisfaction. He plans to celebrate with ceilidh in No 11 tonight: couples of all sexes invited.

Is there any area of the economy Boy George isn't getting right?

Inflation is still above target. Prices are still rising faster than earnings. People have already been squeezed for far too long. Trying to make failure look like a success just makes Tories look like they are treating the electorate with contempt.

Rotting kippers on Margate Sands.

You need fresh fish, Mr. Jones.

I recommend a good Dover Soul served au blue avec une sauce elphiquois.

Delicious.

Back to an 11% lead, eh? As Gloucester OldSpot might say, can the good news get any better?

tim said:

Time to deploy the Sam Cam stories.

"David Cameron's nice car was the key to Samantha's heart"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10071979/David-Camerons-nice-car-was-the-key-to-Samanthas-heart-PM-claims.html


And the Tory party went for him because he took his tie off and told them he could win elections.

When you are born great you have no need for an electorate to thrust greatness upon you, tim.

Y0kel said:

OT - Iran

Officially the list of approved candidates for the Iranian Prseidential elections in June is not due out until tomorrow but reports say these are the guys passing the Guardian Council's approval to run.

Saeed Jalili,
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf,
Gholamali Haddad-Adel,
Ali Akbar Velayati,
Hassan Rouhani,
Mohammad Gharazi,
Mohsen Rezaei,
Mohammad Reza Aref.

If this is confirmed, two things of note for the casual Western watcher. 1. No Rafsanjani, a kind of favourite of some in the West, who did indicate that he wanted to run and 2. no sign of Ahmadeni..yeah.... his favoured man, Rahim-Mashai, passing the Guardian Council either.

Sooooooooooo, when are Ladbrokes planning a market on this?

Can you let us know which of the candidates support same sex marriage, Y0kel?

An interesting account of today's Senate hearing for those who were discussing Apple's tax arrangements this morning:

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2013/0521/451732-apple-ireland-cook/

TheScreamingEagles said:

There are no gays in Iran

Willie McCrea would love it.

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

There are no gays in Iran

Willie McCrea would love it.

I'm gutted I missed seeing the Ulster contribution to the gay marriage debate.

Sounded like a real humdinger.

A real pity that Ian Paisley is no longer an MP.

There must be plenty of left leaning LD voters who are naused over their boys being in govt w the Cons that will vote for them again if it looks like Lab being biggest party w NOM, no?

TheScreamingEagles said:

A real pity that Ian Paisley is no longer an MP.

Ian Paisley Jnr did intervene.

Actually the DUP and Sylvia Harman were pretty restrained as were most of the Tory opponents too (I dont think I noticed any Labour or Lib Dem opponents stick their heads above the parapet in the debate). Gerald Howarth's was probably the worst speech and that wasnt that bad. You really dont get a good class of homophobic comment in the Commons these days. I kinda miss the opportunity to be outraged. Hopefully Tebbit and O'Cathain wont let us down in the Lords.

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

A real pity that Ian Paisley is no longer an MP.

Ian Paisley Jnr did intervene.

Actually the DUP and Sylvia Harman were pretty restrained as were most of the Tory opponents too (I dont think I noticed any Labour or Lib Dem opponents stick their heads above the parapet in the debate). Gerald Howarth's was probably the worst speech and that wasnt that bad. You really dont get a good class of homophobic comment in the Commons these days. I kinda miss the opportunity to be outraged. Hopefully Tebbit and O'Cathain wont let us down in the Lords.

Sylvia Hermon, Neil!

Unless it's some long-lost Ulster cousin of Harriet?

@Neil

Ulster factoid of the day - Lady Sylvia's maiden name is Paisley!

Frankly given the shambles of the behaviour of the Conservative Party over the past few days, it's remarkable that more than a quarter of respondents say they'll vote Tory, although I suppose the alternatives are hardly more attractive.

As so often, the beacon of sense in the whole debate is Lord Ashcroft:

http://conservativehome.blogs.com/platform/2013/05/from-lordashcroft-enough-time-to-behave-like-the-governing-party-we-all-want-to-be.html

Why is he not running Conservative Party strategy?

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Look at this way, gay rights is uniting the Northern Irish.

Not really - in the recent Stormont vote on gay marriage there was a noticeable Nationalist V Unionist divide (with some exceptions).

Oh

SeanT said:

NickPalmer said:

Back to an 11% lead, eh? As Gloucester OldSpot might say, can the good news get any better?

But your support is ALSO falling. Remember the times when you were consistently above 40%, often well above?

Seems a while ago now.

It is a curious phenomenon. You ARE probably going to win, with a plurality, or a small majority, but there certainly isn't any enthusiasm for Miliband. This is not surprising, as he is a ridiculous little wetwipe of a man, and he will be as unpopular as Hollande is now, within a year of taking office.

I agree we're down as well, though by less than the Tories. There are three factors here. First Labour's policy "restraint", though no doubt strategically sensible, is pretty unexciting. Second UKIP is pinching the you-all-suck-let's-try-someone-else vote from all parties, in addition to the specific Daily Mail types from the Tories. Third, the EU/gay marriage row damages the Tories but it doesn't really help either Labour or the LibDems, since neither issue is really one that thrills our supporters and gets them keen to vote. The more the media give the impression that those are today's key issues, the more Lab/Lib supporters shrug and think who cares.

But the underlying position remains healthy enough; Gordon's voters plus defecting LibDems will see us home. I think people will then be pleasantly surprised by Miliband, but we'll see.

NickPalmer said:

I think people will then be pleasantly surprised by Miliband, but we'll see.

One to file in the archives.

I can't quite figure out whether Labour supporters are gritting their teeth and grimly hoping the prospect of being in government under the leadership of the two Eds won't be as bad as any sensible person would expect (as they did, famously, in the case of Gordon Brown), or whether they really don't have any idea what is coming. I imagine it's the former, mainly.

another_richard said:

Surely the obvious place for a Cameron summer holiday would be Cleethorpes ?

Good idea, as long as they could find an interpreter.

Lewis_Duckworth said:

I don't understand the data:

Con -4; Lab -1; UKIP +2; LibDem nc

Does this mean Others are +3?

Yes.

RichardNabavi said:

another_richard said:

" Why is he not running Conservative Party strategy? "

Because doing so is the hobby of our 'near perfect' chancellor.

Do they disagree in any material respect?

IIRC Ashcroft published a very critical report on ConHome into the Conservative 2010 election strategy.

I can't imagine he's impressed by Osborne's more recent strategic disasters either.

@SeanT: "What could Ed Miliband POSSIBLY do that is *surprising*? "

He will probably introduce a 60p tax rate on everyone over £50,000 or some such. Or a mansion tax on houses worth £500K or more. Or an annual wealth tax on everything you own. Or a super-VAT rate on luxury goods. Or a reduction in the inheritance tax threshold. Or possibly all of them at once.

tim said:

SeanT said:

NickPalmer said:

SeanT said:

NickPalmer said:

Back to an 11% lead, eh? As Gloucester OldSpot might say, can the good news get any better?

But your support is ALSO falling. Remember the times when you were consistently above 40%, often well above?

Seems a while ago now.

It is a curious phenomenon. You ARE probably going to win, with a plurality, or a small majority, but there certainly isn't any enthusiasm for Miliband. This is not surprising, as he is a ridiculous little wetwipe of a man, and he will be as unpopular as Hollande is now, within a year of taking office.

I agree we're down as well, though by less than the Tories. There are three factors here. First Labour's policy "restraint", though no doubt strategically sensible, is pretty unexciting. Second UKIP is pinching the you-all-suck-let's-try-someone-else vote from all parties, in addition to the specific Daily Mail types from the Tories. Third, the EU/gay marriage row damages the Tories but it doesn't really help either Labour or the LibDems, since neither issue is really one that thrills our supporters and gets them keen to vote. The more the media give the impression that those are today's key issues, the more Lab/Lib supporters shrug and think who cares.

But the underlying position remains healthy enough; Gordon's voters plus defecting LibDems will see us home. I think people will then be pleasantly surprised by Miliband, but we'll see.

lol Surprised in what way? What could Ed Miliband POSSIBLY do that is *surprising*? Levitate?

He will, AT BEST, be governing a sluggish economy, facing viciously competitive globalising forces, and presiding over a shrunken state budget - limiting his ability to dish out benefits, which is Labour's usual path to popularity.

Which part of that do you disagree with? None, I hope, as it is all virtually certain.

I am right. Miliband will be disliked by everyone within a month. And he has no personal, Boris-esque, Blairite charm to help him dance his way out of political trouble. He is Hollande. He just IS.

Weirdly enough, people were saying the same about Hollande as you are now saying about Ed Miliband. "Wait til he gets into power, then he'll show you".

Ooops.

Labour usually cut benefit spending and the Tories put it up, certainly true of Thatcher Major and Cameron

Was benefit spending higher in 2010 than it was in 1997? Or lower? Genuine question this.

Lewis_Duckworth said:

So, Others have moved from 6% of the national vote, to 9% of the national vote. A 50 per cent increase in their vote!? Hmmm ...

It's only a 3% shift, it's probably mostly or entirely MOE movements, much as the 1% move in Labour support. The Greens did hit 6% in a recent Ipsos Mori poll, so they might be driving it a bit. I doubt it is significant, but I don't see why it's suspect.

Socrates said:

@Sean_T

And I entirely agree that the whole point of public broadcasting should be covering important stuff commercial stations wouldn't go near. Instead they spunk it crap like the Voice and Eastenders to chase ratings. It's outrageous really.

What I'd love is for there to be an independent panel handing out money in a competitive manner for public broadcasting on a program by program basis, after pitches from the broadcasting channel. That way every show that was funded by the television tax would have to fully demonstrate its worth on a clear basis.

I completely agree: the BBC should be a commissioning agency that confines itself to ensuring that programming that would not otherwise be commercially viable gets made.

SeanT said:

Cyclefree said:

@SeanT: "What could Ed Miliband POSSIBLY do that is *surprising*? "

He will probably introduce a 60p tax rate on everyone over £50,000 or some such. Or a mansion tax on houses worth £500K or more. Or an annual wealth tax on everything you own. Or a super-VAT rate on luxury goods. Or a reduction in the inheritance tax threshold. Or possibly all of them at once.

1. He won't do any of those

2. Because Hollande did, and it was a political and economic disaster

3. If he did, it would be amusing to watch him backtrack, very very painfully; like Hollande

4. I'm starting to think UKIP could win more than 10% at the GE, which changes everything for everyone

Ukip can be backed at 13/8 to get between 10-20% w Ladbrokes must be a decent bet

If you did fancy that it would prob be best to back £2@7/2 10-15 and £1@5s 15-20, so you're on at 2/1 10-15% and EVS 15-20%

Brendan Rodgers is now the sixth longest serving manager in the Premier League.

The scary stat, he was only appointed 355 days ago

isam said:

SeanT said:

Cyclefree said:

@SeanT: "What could Ed Miliband POSSIBLY do that is *surprising*? "

He will probably introduce a 60p tax rate on everyone over £50,000 or some such. Or a mansion tax on houses worth £500K or more. Or an annual wealth tax on everything you own. Or a super-VAT rate on luxury goods. Or a reduction in the inheritance tax threshold. Or possibly all of them at once.

1. He won't do any of those

2. Because Hollande did, and it was a political and economic disaster

3. If he did, it would be amusing to watch him backtrack, very very painfully; like Hollande

4. I'm starting to think UKIP could win more than 10% at the GE, which changes everything for everyone

Ukip can be backed at 13/8 to get between 10-20% w Ladbrokes must be a decent bet

If you did fancy that it would prob be best to back £2@7/2 10-15 and £1@5s 15-20, so you're on at 2/1 10-15% and EVS 15-20%

I would be very surprised if UKIP was sub 10% at the election, and would be equally surprised if they were above 20%. So 13/8 sounds like excellent value.

rcs1000 said:

I would be very surprised if UKIP was sub 10% at the election

They slumped from 16% in 2009 (ok, in a PR election in which they stood everywhere) to 3% in 2010 (in a FPTP one where they didnt stand everywhere). I can definitely imagine them falling below 10% in 2015. In fact I have money on it

Neil said:

rcs1000 said:

I would be very surprised if UKIP was sub 10% at the election

They slumped from 16% in 2009 (ok, in a PR election in which they stood everywhere) to 3% in 2010 (in a FPTP one where they didnt stand everywhere). I can definitely imagine them falling below 10% in 2015. In fact I have money on it

Haha well we are on at the current prices give or take

Rcs if you fancied the 13/8 have £22@7/2 and £16@5s sorry if this is patronising

Cyclefree - He has levied it on payroll rather than income

Some pb-ers may want to vote in this voodoo poll:

http://www.hamhigh.co.uk/news/court-crime/should_controversial_barnet_and_camden_politician_brian_coleman_resign_as_a_councillor_1_2191250

GloucesterOldSpot said:

Y0kel said:

OT - Iran

Officially the list of approved candidates for the Iranian Prseidential elections in June is not due out until tomorrow but reports say these are the guys passing the Guardian Council's approval to run.

Saeed Jalili,
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf,
Gholamali Haddad-Adel,
Ali Akbar Velayati,
Hassan Rouhani,
Mohammad Gharazi,
Mohsen Rezaei,
Mohammad Reza Aref.

If this is confirmed, two things of note for the casual Western watcher. 1. No Rafsanjani, a kind of favourite of some in the West, who did indicate that he wanted to run and 2. no sign of Ahmadeni..yeah.... his favoured man, Rahim-Mashai, passing the Guardian Council either.

Sooooooooooo, when are Ladbrokes planning a market on this?

Can you let us know which of the candidates support same sex marriage, Y0kel?

Haddad-Adel ..because he had a dad but now has two mums....

Cyclefree said:

Gordon's voters plus defecting LibDems, eh? No One Nation there, I see. If you're not in those 2 categories, you can get stuffed. Is that the Labour strategy?

What is it with politicians and insulting the voters these days?

No - that's an odd interpretation! I'm not talking about who we'll try to appeal to, just about the reason I don't feel we're likely to lose.

Socrates said:

@RodCrosby

Under that situation, the broadcasters would rather do it with Nigel and Ed and no David than not at all.

That works for Labour, too. Clegg shows up to represent the government and Dave gets an unanswered pile-on and somebody following him around in a chicken costume for the rest of the campaign.

This latest shift is entirely "loon"-driven. Over the past couple of days, the government's net approval rating among Conservative voters from 2010 has gone from +19% to +3% , and the proportion saying they'll vote UKIP has gone from 20% to 27%. I'd like to think they could be won back, but I'm sure the Tory leadership will think of a way to alienate them. I'm now convinced that Cameron is a long-term UKIP agent, working to boost the party at the expense of the Conservatives.

For the benefit of TSE and Sunil, a quick concert review. I saw Depeche Mode in Budapest last night. They were, as always, excellent and were on stage for about 2 hours. A lot of the new album got an airing, but so did Just Can't Get Enough (!), Never Let Me Down Again, A Question Of Time and Black Celebration, showing that they are comfortable with their past as well as their present. One unexpected bonus for my other half and me was to see one section on the screen behind them that we had walked past being filmed in Budapest a couple of weeks ago, not realising what was going on.

I'm looking forward to seeing them next week at the 02 to see how the show works indoors.

The Greens are also benefiting from the chaos and disillusion - up to 4% in the latest poll, though this is concentrated among the 18-24 group where they get 13%. They are gaining almost entriely from the LibDems (9% of 2010 LDs, 1% from the others), and are presumably taking over the role of left-wing non-establishment opposition. They might do quite well in the Euros but their real chance would come with a Lab-:Lib coalition.

As a matter of interest, would Sean Fear like to comment on why he's not switched to UKIP himself? It seems a more natural match than the Cameron Tories, and it'd be interesting to hear the viewpoint of right-wing loyalists.

My inner anarchist is having the mad lolz at the current cluster-fuc£ in the Tory party.
Just don't see anybody there who would have the nuts to stand up and make a challenge for the leadership, so I guess Dave stays for a bit longer.

Something very grim is going on inside the Tory party right now. I think Dave's whole strategy was based on an assumption that there was nowhere else for voters of the right to go - and so he has been trawling in the metrosexual middle with Int'l Aid, windfarms, gay marriage, etc. But...and this is a big but...he seems to have forgotten UKIP and the fact that conservative voters (small 'c') do have a natural home and a leader whose style and straightforwardness appeals. Farage. There is a huge sense of betrayal. Go look at Coffeehouse or read DT blogs. The party base is effing furious.

Looks to me very much like Dave has ruined his party and it won't get unruined until the chumocracy is replaced by a bunch of normal people. The Tory future belongs to the likes of Hammond and Davis and not to the 'elite'.

This will all come to pass either before or immediately after Redward becomes PM. The disaster of Redward's premiership will propel the 'real' Tory into office (maybe in coalition / pact / joint ticket with UKIP).

Tory Backbench eurosceptics should respond to Cleggs immature taunt by replying "if its immature to debate Britains national interest and its adult to meekly submit to Europe then give me immature any day of the week"

@Nick Palmer

"As a matter of interest, would Sean Fear like to comment on why he's not switched to UKIP himself? It seems a more natural match than the Cameron Tories, and it'd be interesting to hear the viewpoint of right-wing loyalists"

The Conservative party remains a broad church and whilst Sean sits to the right he surely wouldn't formally want to join a party with even more loons than the Tories.