politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy sees LAB drop 5 an

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• Tim_B Posts: 7,669

  October 2014

  Cowboys touchdown - How 'bout them Cowboys!!!!

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• JBriskin Posts: 2,380

  October 2014

  RodCrosby said:

  Updated: exact 2009-2010 rerun would see Tories 5.6% ahead on polling day...

  While I await Tim B updates...
  
  Presumably that's only the infamous "swingback" factor?
  
  Or are you allowed to tell one more factor, hush hush etc. ?
  
  

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• JBriskin Posts: 2,380

  October 2014

  Tim_B said:

  Cowboys touchdown - How 'bout them Cowboys!!!!

  Rockin'
  
  

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• AndyJS Posts: 29,395

  October 2014

  The Recall debate:
  
  http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/hansard/commons/todays-commons-debates/read/unknown/416/

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• Tim_B Posts: 7,669

  October 2014

  For anyone who cares this is the 45th anniversary of Monday Night Football. It used to be on ABC, (broadcast), then went to ESPN (cable) - both owned by Disney.

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• Stickytroll Posts: 30

  October 2014

  As the GE approaches, Labour votes will drift back to the LDs and UKIP votes will drift back to the CONs.
  
  Tories will scrape through with a lead of 6%-7%.
  
  Amen.

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• RodCrosby Posts: 7,737

  October 2014

  JBriskin said:

  RodCrosby said:

  Updated: exact 2009-2010 rerun would see Tories 5.6% ahead on polling day...

  While I await Tim B updates...
  
  Presumably that's only the infamous "swingback" factor?
  
  Or are you allowed to tell one more factor, hush hush etc. ?
  
  

  Based on the move in the polls, 2009-10, day by day.

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• AndyJS Posts: 29,395

  October 2014

  Ashcroft seems to think the ComRes poll had the Tories on 29%:
  
  https://mobile.twitter.com/LordAshcroft

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• manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543

  October 2014

  Stickytroll said:

  As the GE approaches, Labour votes will drift back to the LDs and UKIP votes will drift back to the CONs.
  
  Tories will scrape through with a lead of 6%-7%.
  
  Amen.

  And they all lived happily ever after.......

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• AndyJS Posts: 29,395

  October 2014

  Last 20 polls: average Labour lead = 1.55%.
  
  http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014

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• RodCrosby Posts: 7,737

  October 2014 edited October 2014

  AndyJS said:

  Last 20 polls: average Labour lead = 1.55%.
  
  http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014

  20 is probably too many to get with the trend.
  
  Around 9, about a week's worth is what I use. Weighted by sample size.
  
  Use SUMPRODUCT(data, samplesize)/SUM(samplesize) in Excel.
  

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• JBriskin Posts: 2,380

  October 2014

  Tim B - I'm off to bed. I'm on minus 10.5 remember!

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